Sports Picks & Predictions

3* Oddsmakers Error on Nevada +

Wyoming is really struggling right now losing by 22 to Colorado State and 11 to New Mexico in their last two games. You should always play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Nevada when they are scoring 67-74 points per game against a defensive team allowing 63 or less points per game after 15+ games, and their opponent is coming off 2 straight losses by 10 points or more. This system is 46-17 (73%) since 1997.

The Wyoming Cowboys are playing through injuries. Leonard Washington is by far the Cowboys best player and he is nursing a back injury. Washington is probable for today

4* Heavy Hitter on St Mary

4* Vegas Insider on Northwestern +

Northwestern has struggled lately which is what drove this line up much higher than it should be. You should always play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Northwestern after 7 or more consecutive losses when they are playing only their 2nd game in eight days. This system is 167-107 (61%) ATS.

The oddsmakers were forced to make this line so big because of the Wildcats struggles against Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois but they put together better games against Ohio State and Penn State recently. The well-rested team this late in the season getting such an inflated line is the smart play in this game.

This is way too many points for Northwestern to receive considering how strong their defense has been this season. The Wildcats have held opponents to 63 points per game on the road. Michigan State averages only 68.8 points per game and even though Northwestern may not have a great conference record, they are good enough to keep this game within the almost 20 points we are getting today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Northern Arizona +

You should always play against favorites of 10 or more points like Montana after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last seven games when they are playing with one or less days of rest. The win streak drives the line up and the lack of rest makes it difficult for teams to put together a strong performance which is why this system is 85-49 (63.4%) over the last five seasons.

You should play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Northern Arizona when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent playing with one or less days of rest. Getting revenge in college basketball is very important to a lot of these teams, especially if they were embarrassed in a blowout on their home court. This system is 192-132 (59.3%) over the last five seasons.

5* No Brainer on Tulane -

You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Houston when they are off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival and play are playing against an opponent that is coming off a road game scoring 75 points or more. When teams get big blowout wins they tend to have a letdown performance in their next outing, especially in conference play. This system is 32-9 (78%) the last 41 times this situation has occurred.

You should also play on a team like Tulane when they are off a close road loss by 3 points or less and they are a team that has returned all five starters from last season. This angle has delivered a 78-42 (65%) record over the last five seasons. When you have all five starters from last season returning there is chemistry and experience so a close loss is not going to stick around in these player's heads.

Tulane is a solid 14-3 straight up at home and playing a Houston team that is 4-7 when on the road. Tulane

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte +

St Josephs is coming off two consecutive wins over 20 points against very soft opponents. That has them in a perfect spot for a letdown game against a quality Charlotte team. The Charlotte 49ers are 11-3 on their home court and playing a St Joseph

3* Bailout Blowout on Oregon State +

The oddsmakers have really driven up this line based on Colorado

3* Main Event on Minnesota -

The Golden Gophers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record while Purdue is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. You should always play on teams like Minnesota when they are road favorites forcing less than 14 turnovers per game and playing in a March game. This system is 76-45 (62.8%) over the last five seasons.

This is an incredibly small line considering Minnesota has returned more starts from last season so they have more experience and they are a 20 win team facing a team with a losing record. Purdue does not have the same home court advantage that other Big Ten powerhouses have. They are 10-6 at home which is respectable, but certainly not good enough to prove they can stay within 3 points or a team that was ranked in the top 15 earlier this season. The Golden Gophers are coming off a bad performance against Nebraska and they will definitely want to make a statement playing at Purdue.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Columbia +

Harvard is in a bit of a slump. They have dropped their last two games, one to Princeton and the other to a horrible Pennsylvania team. You should always play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Columbia when they are off a 3 point or less loss to a conference rival and winning between 40-49% of their games on the season. This system is 44-14 (74.6%) over the last five seasons.

Columbia has three key advantages in this game. First off, they are a better free throw shooting team averaging 74.3% this season compared to 72.2% from Harvard. They also have a much better defense holding opponents to 60.5 points per game which is a solid 4.2 points per game better than Harvard. Their last key advantage is in rebounding. Columbia may only average 32 boards per game, but Harvard is only averaging 30 per game off of more attempts.

Columbia already handed Harvard a 15 point loss this season back in February. The location may have changed in Harvard

5* Vegas Insider on CS Northridge -

The first matchup between these teams was decided by three points in Hawaii back in December. Now we have a change in venue and the Rainbow Warriors are forced to do the traveling which should help change the end result in this game. Hawaii is 4-15 ATS in road games when coming off an upset loss to a conference rivals and they are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing home record.

The Hawaii defense has been horrible on the road allowing 78.7 points per game and almost 47% shooting from the field. They are now facing a CS-Northridge team that can score at will on their home court averaging 79.8 points per game. Hawaii is trending in the wrong direction as the season unwinds losing three of their last five games straight up and four out of five against the spread. They are coming off a game against Cal Poly in which they pulled in a mere 28 rebounds and they are averaging 39.9% shooting in their last two games.

It seems the recent struggles for the Rainbow Warriors started taking place when Brandon Spearman went out with an ankle injury. While Spearmen was not a leading scorer for Hawaii, his 25.8 minutes per game and 9.7 points are hard to replace with a short bench. Spearman was a solid 72% from the free throw line and good for a few rebounds each game. With or without Spearman the Rainbow Warriors are struggling and CS Northridge will take full advantage of the opportunity on their home court tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Portland State +

When teams are winning a lot of games the oddsmakers are usually forced to increase the line on that team. There comes a point when even a hot team loses its value and we have reached that point with Weber State. You should always play against favorites of 10 or more points after 9 or more consecutive wins. This system is 213-139 (60.5%) over the last five seasons.

If you take a look at their recent numbers it is obvious the hot streak for Weber State has worn off. They were averaging over 50% shooting in the first 7 wins of this 9 game streak. The last two games they have averaged 46.2% shooting. While that is still a respectable number, it is definitely a trend moving in the wrong direction for Weber State, especially considering how big the line is on this game.

Portland State may not have a great overall record but they are 3-2 in their last five games and they have done a great job all season of avoiding turnovers. This is a team that averages less than 12 turnovers per game. They also shoot over 75% from the free throw line. Portland State has been beat by 17 points only once since November when they played a ranked Oklahoma State team. That was a road game against Northern Colorado, a team with a great home court advantage. Weber State does not share that same advantage and they do not have what it takes to pick up a 17 point win tonight.

3* No Doubt Rout on Sacramento State +

Both of these teams are solid defensively with Sacramento State allowing 65.6 points per game and Montana is allowing 66.4 points per game. You should play against home teams in a game involving two good defensive teams after a combined score of 155 points or more. This system is 106-65 (62%) over the last five seasons.

This game falls into another system to play on a road underdog of 10 to 19.5 points like Sacramento State when they are winning 51-60% of their games on the season and revenging a home loss against an opponent. This system is 115-58 (67%) over the last five seasons.

Montana is a poor rebounding team averaging only 31 boards per game with a mere 6 of those coming on the offensive end. They have been able to win games because they shoot 47.5% from the field. Many of the teams they have faced have not had a defense as strong as Sacramento State

3* BIG TEN ATS BLOWOUT on Minnesota -

Nebraska is one of the few teams in the Big Ten that have horrible statistics on their home court. They average a mere 59.2 points per game, shooting 40.5% and get only 9 assists per game. You should always play against home teams like Nebraska as an underdog or pick when they are a poor passing team that averages less than 12 assists per game in March games. This system is 50-26 (65.8%) over the last five seasons.

Minnesota has played a tough road schedule this season playing the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers defense has allowed only 61.4 points per game and they are scoring 64.3 points per game. That gives them a positive scoring margin of 2.9 PPG on the road. Nebraska does not have a positive scoring margin on their home court and it is, in large part, because they are getting dominated on the boards. They average 32 rebounds per game compared to 39 from Minnesota.

Minnesota is hot coming into this game winning their last two over Indiana and Penn State while Nebraska has dropped two straight to Wisconsin and Illinois. You should play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Nebraska when they are revenging a same season loss and they are off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. This system is 161-91 (63.9%) over the last five seasons.

4* CBB NO BRAINER on Tulane +

Tulane is a much better defensive team than East Carolina. They have held opponents to 62.7 points per game compared to the 71.6 allowed by the Pirates. The Green Wave are also out rebounding their opponents by an average of 4 per game pulling in a total of 35 board while their opponents have averaged just 31 boards.

The Pirates have a history of performing poorly against good teams late in the season. They have lost five of their last nine games and they are 33-57 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game after 15+ games since 1997. East Carolina is also 48-77 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

3* CBB NO DOUBT ROUT on South Carolina -

Mississippi State is the worst team in the Southeastern Conference. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like South Carolina when they are coming off a loss of 15 points or more and they have a +/- 3.5 PPG differential against a terrible team with a -8 PPG differential. This system is 45-20 (69.2%) over the last 5 seasons.

Mississippi State averages 59.7 points per game while allowing 76.5 per game on the road. They are coming off a big win over in-state rival Ole Miss and are in a letdown spot for today

3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia Tech +

The oddsmakers are giving Duke a little too much credit for Ryan Kelly being back in the lineup. He had a great game against Miami but the Blue Devils still won that game by a mere 3 points. The fact is, Duke does not really dominate anyone at home which is why they have a 7-8 ATS record at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Virginia Tech will be playing with a big revenge factor in this game after Duke embarrassed them on their home court earlier this season. You should always play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Virginia Tech when they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more. This system is 457-330 (58.1%) over the last 5 seasons.

A game against a top ranked team like Duke is the closest thing to a post season the Hokies are going to see. That should have them motivated to come out and play some of their best basketball. Virginia Tech is 9-2 ATS in road games versus good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. With the Blue Devils having North Carolina on deck they are in a situation to look past the Hokies which could make this a close game.

3* No Doubt Rout on Central Michigan -

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are the kind of team that needs to force turnovers to win games. Central Michigan averages 13 turnovers per game which is not enough for the Eagles to get an advantage. Eastern Michigan is 6-16 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game over the last 3 seasons.

The Central Michigan Chippewas may not be a dominating team on their home court, but the Eagles are 2-11 on the road this season. This is also a revenge game for Central Michigan who lost by 6 points to the Eagles back in January. The change in venue should be more than enough to change the outcome of this matchup.

The Eagles are averaging 52.2 points per game on the road while the Chippewas are scoring 68.3 per game at home. In a game that could be close it is always better to take the good free throw shooting team. Central Michigan is shooting 73% from the line compared to 67.8% from Eastern Michigan.

5* Big Sky Game of the Year on Southern Utah +

Montana is not a team that scores a lot of points. They run a slow down offense and do not get into a lot of fast breaks or bad shot attempts. That style of play does not always work and it fits perfectly into Southern Utah

3* No Doubt Rout on Michigan -

Michigan may have lost to Penn State in their last game, but it is not a sign that the sky is falling. The Wolverines almost certainly had their eyes on this game against Michigan State and looked past the Nittany Lions. Now they get their chance to get revenge from the 23 point blowout they suffered the first time these teams played.

Sometimes getting too much rest can actually be a setback for a team. Too much time to prepare for a big opponent can have coaches over analyzing film and doing things they otherwise wouldn't do. This is why you should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Michigan State when they are winning between 60-80% of their games and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest against a team with a winning record. This system is 133-82 (61.9%) over the last five seasons.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield

The Fairfield Stags are coming off a poor offensive performance against Manhattan so they will certainly come into this game trying to score points quickly. That should be easy to do against a Marist team that is 9-20 on the season a 5-7 on their home court. Their defense has allowed 71.1 points per game which is exactly what Fairfield needs after the slow game last Friday.

You should always play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Marist after they covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against the spread and they are a bad team winning between 20-40% of their games on the season. This system is 71-38 (65.1%) over the last five seasons.

You should also play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Fairfield when they are an average free throw shooting team playing against a poor free throw shooting team after a game they allowed a shooting percentage of 33% or less. This system is 40-19 (67.8% since 1997.

3* No Doubt Rout on Portland State -

This is a revenge game for the Portland State Vikings. They suffered an embarrassing loss back in January playing on the road at Northern Colorado. The Vikings would like nothing more than to put a big beating on the Bears. Northern Colorado is 3-12 on the road this season and Portland State is the hot team having won three of their last four games coming into this matchup.

3* Bailout Blowout on Sacramento State -

Sacramento State has scored less than 65 points in their last four games which has forced the oddsmakers to overcompensate on this line creating value on the Hornets. The Hornets are an experienced team returning all five starters from last season so a scoring drought should not have much of an impact on this team. You should always play on teams scoring 65 points or less in three straight games when they have all five starters returning from last seasons. This system is 126-84 (60%) over the last five seasons. When that team is a favorite the system tightens up to 70-39 (64.2%) during that same time period.

4* No Brainer on Arizona +

You should always play on road teams as an underdog or pick like Arizona when they are revenging a 10 point or more home loss against and coming off a road loss. This system is 228-157 (59.2%) over the last five seasons. The Wildcats are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their home games.

UCLA has been giving up a lot of rebounds. Playing teams like USC and Arizona State they are able to walk away. Those teams shoot 40% or less from the field. That will not be the case against a top tier team like Arizona. If UCLA allows Arizona to get 45+ rebounds like they did against Arizona State they will be in trouble because the Wildcats shoot over 45% from the field.

Arizona

5* Vegas Insider on Montana State +

The Montana State Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams winning 60% or more of their road games. Montana on the other hand is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their home games.

This is the fourth consecutive road game for Montana and they appear to be tiring. In their last game against Davidson they gave up 49.2% shooting and forced only 8 turnovers. The Grizzlies are a good shooting team, but so are the Bobcats. Montana State is 7-1 ATS playing teams shooting 45% or better this season.

This is a revenge game for Montana State. The Bobcats played the Grizzlies back in January and lost by six points on the road. The Change in venue should easily make up the 2 point difference between those results and today

4* Heavy Hitter on Texas Arlington -

Utah State is 6-17 ATS the last 23 times they have been on the road coming off a road loss against a conference rival. These teams played back in January and Texas-Arlington won straight up on the road at Utah State. The Mavericks have now won six of their last seven games coming into this rematch and eight of their last ten games since playing the Aggies.

Utah State has struggled defensively lately. They allowed 50% shooting from Louisiana Tech and have forced an average of just 8.5 turnovers per game in their last five games. The offense has not been much better shooting 35.7% in their last game. They now face a Texas-Arlington team that has held opponents to under 30% from beyond the three point line at home and has allowed 37.6% from the field this season. The Mavericks 59.7 points per game allowed at home ranks them among some of the best in college basketball.

4* No Brainer on Southern Illinois +

This is a revenge game for Southern Illinois as the Salukis suffered a five point loss to Drake back in January. You should always play on a team like Southern Illinois when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent off an upset win as an underdog over a conference rival. This system is 307-216 (58.7%) over the last five seasons.

You should also play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having won four of their last five games in a matchup where the road underdog is winning 40-49% of their games and playing a team that also has a losing record. This system is 27-9 ATS (75%) the last 38 times this situation has occurred. It makes sense to take the hot team in a matchup involving two bad teams. Drake clearly has little to no advantage playing on their home court. They have a 6-6 ATS record at home and have allowed 71.9 points per game and almost 44% shooting.

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota -

Both teams are coming off big wins. Minnesota knocked off Indiana and Penn State beat Michigan. The win for Minnesota was nothing to celebrate. The Golden Gophers are a good team with a 19-9 record. For 9-19 Penn State, a win over Michigan is something you celebrate all week. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record and 5-1-1 ATS their last 7 home games against teams winning 40% or less of their road games. Penn State got a great win over Michigan on their home court. That does nothing to improve their 56.3 point average and 1-10 record when playing on the road.

3* Oddsmakers Error on West Virginia +

You should always play against favorites of 10 or more points when their defense allows 63 or less points per game playing a team that also has a good defense allowing 63-67 points per game and that favorite is coming off a performance scoring 85 or more points. This system is 53-16 (76.8%) over the last five seasons. This young Kansas team is mentally fragile. They suffered three consecutive losses earlier this season. They have received a lot of attention this week because of some controversial calls in their game with Iowa State. That media attention is not good for a team whose Head Coach said this is one of the worst Kansas teams in years.

4* No Limit on Central Florida +

The Central Florida Knights play well against strong competition. They are 4-1 ATS against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Memphis has played a weak schedule so their record is a little inflated in comparison to the level of talent they actually have. Central Florida is a solid 19-9 this season and they are playing for revenge after getting embarrassed by Memphis on February 13th.

Memphis is 12-25 ATS after a non-conference game over the last three seasons and they are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss. Central Florida on the other hand is 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last three seasons.

Central Florida is not only doing a good job handling the ball, they are also performing well on the defensive end of the court. The Knights held Georgia SW to 27.8% shooting in their last game and have forced an average of 17 turnovers per game in their last three games. Memphis has been struggling to force turnovers averaging 11.3 in their last three games which has earned them a 1-2 record ATS.

3* Main Event on Jacksonville State +

Always play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Jacksonville State when they are off an upset win as a road underdog and revenging a home loss against an opponent. This system is 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Jacksonville State is 11-0 ATS against teams averaging 16 or more assists per game after 15+ games. The Gamecocks have done a great job of controlling their turnovers and forcing them from their opponents. Belmont won the first matchup between these teams by 11 points. A change in venue is not enough to make up the additional points to cover such a large number.

5* FRIDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR on Fairfield -

The Manhattan Jaspers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Jaspers offense averages 59.2 points per game ranking them 328th among division one teams. They are also a poor rebounding team pulling in 32.5 boards per game. They are in serious trouble tonight because they face a Fairfield team that has one of the best defenses in college basketball. The Stags are allowing 60.1 points per game ranking them 36th among division one teams.

You should always play against home teams as an underdog or pick like Manhattan when they are a poor passing team averaging 12 or less assists per game in March games. This system is 40-15 (72.7%) over the last 5 seasons. You should also play on road teams as a favorite or pick that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game in March games. This situation is 60-28 (68.2%) over the last five seasons.

This is a revenge game for Fairfield who suffered an embarrassing loss to Manhattan just over two weeks ago. That game was played at Fairfield and postponed twice due to weather. The Stags did not have a chance to prepare for Manhattan which resulted in a lopsided loss. Fairfield is the better team and and they have had time to prepare for this round two showdown. The Stags should have no problem getting their revenge against the Jaspers tonight.

3* HIGH ROLLER on San Jose State +

This game falls into a system to play against a favorite like Texas Arlington when they are allowing 40% or less shooting from the field, playing against another great defense allowing 40-42.5% shooting, and the favorite is an average ball handling team with 14.5-17.5 turnovers against a good ball handling team that averages less than 14.5 turnovers. This system is 136-85 (61.5%) over the last five seasons.

You should also play on underdogs of 10 or more points that have a losing record when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent. This system is 513-394 (56.6%) over the last five seasons. The fact that San Jose State has a losing record is actually what creates value on the Spartans. A losing team will get more points than a winning team and 11.5 is just too many for Arlington to cover.

The Texas-Arlington Mavericks have one of the worst offenses in college basketball. They average 63 points per game ranking them 276th among division one teams. They are also a very poor shooting team ranking 299th. The Mavericks have been able to win based on their defense but even those numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Texas-Arlington gave up 51.9% shooting from the field to UC Irvine.

3* UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Tennessee Martin +

Murray State

5* CBB NO BRAINER on UT-Chattanooga +

You should always play on a team revenging a home loss against an opponent when they are off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. This system is 306-212 (58.6%) over the last five seasons. When that team is revenging a home loss as an underdog the system tightens up to 47-17 (73.4%) over the last five seasons.

Western Carolina has not been shooting well recently. They have shot below 40% from the field in three of their last four games. The Catamounts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record.

The Western Carolina defense ranks 257th among division one teams allowing 69.8 points per game and allowing 43.7% shooting from the field. They are also a poor rebounding team ranking 185th with 34.4 boards per game. This could be a lopsided match up considering UT-Chattanooga ranks 34th in the nation with 38.3 rebounds per game.

4* LATE NIGHT BAILOUT on Arizona State +

Arizona State is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games coming off an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. This is a fearless Sun Devils team that will not be intimidated by UCLA and their fans. The Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs teams winning 60% or more of their games.

The Sun Devils have won two of their last three games and they are a mere two games back from 1st in the conference with Arizona scheduled as the last game of the season. If Arizona State can win out to finish the season they have a very realistic chance of playing in the PAC-12 championship. UCLA has Arizona on deck so they may be in a situation where they are looking past the Sun Devils.

3* SEC SLAM DUNK on Georgia +

When teams are covered the number by a lot of points the oddsmakers are forced to increase the line in that teams next game. This seems to be the case with Vanderbilt as the line seems a bit inflated for their matchup with Georgia. Always play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Vanderbilt after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games when they are playing against an opponent that has gone over the total by 18 or more points in their last three games. This trend is 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1997.

Georgia has also covered the spread in their last three games but they have been in much closer games getting a 1 point cover against Ole Miss and a 1 point cover against South Carolina. You should also play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered the spread in 4 of their last five games and playing their third game in a week. This trend is 58-30 (65.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

4* BIG 12 BLOWOUT on West Virginia +

Baylor is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less and they have a 19-32 ATS record against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a home win percentage at 60% or more. Both of these teams have similar conference records with Baylor at 7-7 and West Virginia a game behind at 6-8.

The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off an ATS loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a double digit loss at home. West Virginia should rebound from that performance against Oklahoma State since they are on their home court playing a Baylor team that has been a big disappointment this season. West Virginia is 8-4 straight up in Morgantown. Baylor is 5-7 on the road this season and they have struggled getting turnovers and steals playing away from home.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Southern Illinois +

Southern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in their last five against Missouri Valley teams. They have won four of their last six games and the hot team at home getting points is never a bad thing. Northern Iowa is 5-9 on the road and 5-8 ATS. They average 60.9 points per game on offense and have done a horrible job getting rebounds with 29 per game. The Panthers are not a team that travels well.

Southern Illinois may be sitting in last place in their conference, but it is not because they haven

5* CBB NO BRAINER on George Washington +

The George Washington defense has been great this season. They are holding opponents to 63.4 points per game and allowing 40.9% shooting from the field. The Colonials are pulling in 38 rebounds per game on the road with 11 coming on the offensive end while allowing their opponents only 33 rebounds per game. Richmond is 1-10 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 42% or less this season.

The Spiders are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games when playing teams with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS in their last five against Atlantic 10 opponents. Richmond may have the better overall record but both of these teams share a 6-6 conference record which is a lot more meaningful when it comes to assessing a team

4* Vegas Insider on Wyoming +

Wyoming has one of the top defenses in college basketball. They have held opponents to an average of 56.5 points per game ranking them 11th among division one teams. Air Force is giving up 67.5 points per game. The Falcons soft defense has allowed their opponents to shoot 44.8% from the field and 31.6% from the free throw line.

These two teams respond to losses in completely different ways. Air Force is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss while the Wyoming Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home.

The Cowboys are a very disciplined team. They average 12 turnovers and 15 fouls per game when playing on the road. Wyoming has the advantage on defense and since the Falcons struggle to pull in rebounds, averaging only 6 offensive boards per game, they should not be able to pull away far enough to cover the number.

3* No Doubt Rout on Youngstown State +

College basketball is a very streaky sport. Teams that are winning games inevitably hit a losing streak and teams that are shooting well will eventually get cold. This is why you should always play against favorites of 10 or more points like Valparaiso when they are a hot shooting team that has played four straight games making 47% or more of their shots. This trend is 141-86 (62.1%) over the last 5 seasons.

You should also play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Youngstown State when they are an excellent ball handling team that is committing 12 or less turnovers per game playing in February. This trend is 85-52 (62%) the last 137 times this situation has occurred.

Valparaiso is not a great rebounding team. They average 33 boards per game with only 8 offensive rebounds on average. The Crusaders rank 236th among division one teams in rebounds and without those second chance shots they will not be able to cover the number against a Youngstown State team that averages 72 points per game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Iowa State +

The Cyclones are a solid 15-0 straight up on their home court. They are also 7-3 ATS their last 10 when playing at Hilton and have a history of playing the Jayhawks in some tough games. Iowa State is 8-2 ATS versus teams allowing 64 points per game or less 15+ games this season.

The Jayhawks have also struggled on the road against good three point shooting teams. They are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making 8 or more three point shots per game over the last three seasons. The Cyclones average 10 of 26 (38.3%) from beyond the three point line on their home court.

We already know this Kansas team has struggled on offense in tough conference games. They had a three game losing streak to start the month and their head coach announced this was the worst Kansas basketball team he has seen in years. The inconsistent offense for Kansas could be big trouble tonight since the Cyclones average 83.5 points per game on their home court.

This is also a revenge game for the Cyclones. Iowa State had a chance to beat Kansas in Lawrence until a last second three put the game into overtime and the Cyclones could not hold on. A change in venue should also give us a change in outcome with the Cyclones picking up a big win tonight.

3* CBB No Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech +

Virginia Tech is a great ball handling team averaging just 12 turnovers per game on their home court. The Florida State Seminoles have struggled against good ball handling teams and they are 1-7 ATS against teams committing less than 14 turnovers per game after the 15 game mark in the season.

There is no doubt that Florida State is the biggest flop in the ACC. The Seminoles do not play the kind of physical basketball it takes to rank among the top teams in the conference. They average 32 rebounds per game when playing on the road and only 7 of those rebounds come on the offensive end of the court.

It is surprising to see Virginia Tech listed as the underdog in this matchup considering how bad Florida State has looked on the road this season. The Seminoles have averaged 60.7 points per game in conference play which will not be enough to compete with a Virginia Tech team scoring 71.9 points per game on their home court. In head to head history between these teams the underdog is 4-1 the last 5 meetings.

3* CBB Main Event on Pittsburgh -

Pittsburgh is coming off back to back losses against Marquette and Notre Dame. The Panthers should respond with a big game against St John

3* Main Event on Citadel +

You should always play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Presbyterian after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games when they are winning between 20-40% of their games and playing another team with a losing record. This system is 67-37 (64.4%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup also falls into a system to play on road teams as an underdog or pick that are winning between 20-40% of their games and coming off an upset win as an underdog. This trend is 186-117 (61.4%) over the last five seasons. That number tightens up to 92-46 (66.7%) when that upset win came as a road underdog.

3* No Doubt Rout on Oregon State +

The Oregon State Beavers are 8-2 ATS coming off a loss against a conference rival this season and 6-0 ATS when coming off 2 straight conference losses. Their record may not reflect it, but the Beavers have been putting up a lot of points in home games. They average 75.2 per game and the defense has done a remarkable job holding opponents to 40.8% shooting from the field.

California has struggled on offense averaging 66.4 points per game and the Golden Bears have a bad habit of playing down to their level of competition. They are 1-3-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. In head to head history between these teams California is 3-7 ATS.

These teams played back on January 31st and the Beavers were within three points on California

4* HEAVY HITTER on Central Florida -

Central Florida is 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Their defense on the home court has held all opponents to an average of 63.4 points per game while the offense has been scoring over 70 points per game. Tulsa is sitting on a 6-6 conference record and with only four games left in the season they do not have much to play for at this point. Central Florida on the other hand is realistically within reach of second place in conference play.

Tulsa is 4-13 ATS their last 17 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Their defense has been very sloppy on the road which is why they average 22 personal fouls per game and only pair six steals per game with that number.

Central Florida outmatches Tulsa in almost every measurable area. They are winning the turnover and rebounding margins, their offense is scoring more points and their defense is holding opponents to lower scores. They are the better team and it will show in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Illinois +

The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also 3-1-1 ATS against Mid-American Conference teams. The Northern Illinois Huskies have lost their last five consecutive games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

The competition Eastern Illinois has faced in the Ohio Valley Conference is far superior to that of any team in the Mid-American Conference. The Huskies defense gives up 64 points per game which may seem pretty good when compared to the statistical averages of other division one teams, but the offense is scoring a mere 54.5 points per game on their home court.

While neither of these teams is great, Eastern Illinois has played a much tougher schedule to earn a record almost twice as good as Northern Illinois. We will take the points, but it seems like the oddsmakers have made an error favoring the Huskies.

3* No Doubt Rout on St. Peter's +

St Peters is 12-3 ATS in road games against poor three point shooting teams that average 31% or less after 15+ games in the season. Their success doesn't end against poor three point shooting teams either. They are 47-25 ATS against teams making 42% or less of their field goal attempts after 15+ games in the season.

Hampton averages 36.8% shooting from the field and 28.4% shooting from beyond the three point line on their home court. They are 5-5 at home so there is little to no home court advantage. The Peacocks have always played well late in the season and that has a lot to do with coaching. John Dunne is 19-8 ATS in road games in February games as the coach of St Peter

3* Oddsmakers Error on Butler -

The Butler Bulldogs are 13-1 at home and in second place in the Atlantic 10 conference. They have all the motivation they need when they face the team that is first in the conference, Saint Louis. Butler plays well against teams that are not very physical like the Billikens. St Louis does not average many fouls and they are not good at rebounding which are both key indicators of a team that does not play physical basketball. Butler is 10-2 ATS against teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game this season.

St Louis is a poor rebounding team averaging 32 total boards per game with only 7 coming on the offensive end. Offensive rebounds are one of the most important statistics in college basketball because points off of second chance attempts are usually some of the easiest points scored in a game. Butler averages 37 rebounds and 10 of those are on the offensive end so they have a big advantage over St Louis.

This is a revenge game for Butler. The Bulldogs lost back on January 31st in a game that was not very close. That poor performance has created a lot of value on the line in today

3* NO DOUBT ROUT on BYU +

BYU is coming off a pair of nice wins over Portland and Utah State and they are just two games back from second in the West Coast Conference behind St Mary

5* NO BRAINER on Tennessee Martin +

The road team is getting too many points in a game that features two evenly matched teams. Tennessee-Martin is coming off a bad loss to SE Missouri State and the oddsmakers have over adjusted based on the result of that game. You should always play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Tennessee-Martin after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games. This system is 97-54 (64.2%) since 1997.

The wear and tear of a road game is much harder on some teams than it is others. Tennessee Tech is one of those teams that has had trouble handling the travel and extra energy involved with coming off a stretch on the road. They are 4-13 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last three seasons.

In a game involving two teams that are evenly matched statistically we have to take the road team. Tennessee-Martin is a better free throw shooting team, and getting this many points when there are no key injuries is just too many to pass up.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Cincinnati +

It appears the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this match up. Connecticut has a tough stretch to end their season with three out of five games being played on the road and one of their home games coming against #11 ranked Georgetown. This is a situation where the Huskies may not be fully prepared to take on the Bearcats as they try to get ready for that final stretch of games.

Cincinnati is the more experienced team returning three starters from last season compared to just one from Connecticut. This late in the season that experience is going to be a big difference maker. You should always play on a road team after scoring 60 points or less in their last game, that is returning two or more starters from last season than their opponent. This system is 256-184 (58.2%) over the last five seasons.

The Bearcats are a team that really steps up there game against solid competition and they are 8-1 ATS in road games when playing teams with a winning record this season. They are also 14-3 ATS on road games after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.

5* HEAVY HITTER on Santa Clara +

This game falls into a system to play against favorites of 10 points or more after 6 or more consecutive wins when playing in a February game. The system is 107-65 (62.2%) over the last five seasons. If you look at Gonzaga

3* NO DOUBT ROUT Illinois-Chicago -

Wisconsin Milwaukee is a bad team. They average 62.2 points per game while allowing 70.8 points on the defensive end of the court. Always play against home underdogs when they are a poor offensive team scoring 64 or less PPG and coming off a game with a combined score of 155 points or more. This situation is 127-77 ATS record since 1997.

Wisconsin Milwaukee is below .500 on their home court and they are one of the worst teams in the Horizon League conference. The Panthers are 1-9 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week this season. They are coming off losses to Youngstown State and Cleveland State on the road and at this point they have to be to be ready to throw in the towel on their season. Illinois Chicago laying the points is the smart play.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Vanderbilt +

Kentucky had high hopes of a late season rally to win their conference and potentially make a run in the NCAA tournament. Those hopes were thrown out the window when Nerlens Noel went out with an injury and the Wildcats do not look like they will be able to recover.

After the 17 point loss to Florida, the Wildcats were crushed by a mediocre Tennessee team by 30 points. With Noel out this team is playing like they have given up on the season. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Vanderbilt after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less. It is 183-121 ATS over the last 5 seasons

While Vanderbilt certainly has a lot of areas they can improve, they are a solid rebounding team. You should play on road underdogs of 10 or more points when they are giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds per game on the season and playing in a February game. This system is 355-247 ATS since 1997 and with Noel out it is going to be tough for the Wildcats to have a strong rebounding performance today.

3* Main Event on Evansville +

Illinois State is coming off a tough one point loss on their home court to Wichita State. You should always play on home teams as an underdog or pick like Evansville when they are revenging a road loss vs an opponent when that opponent is off a home loss by 3 points or less. Over the last five seasons this system is 61-26 ATS.

Evansville is 10-1 ATS vs. teams making 72% of their free throw attempts after 15 games over the least two seasons. Good free throw shooting teams rely on those easy points from the line and teams can't get to the line against Evansville because of their ability to stay out of foul trouble. The Aces average only 16 fouls per game and should be able to avoid getting into any trouble against Illinois State.

The head to head history between these teams is also favorable for Evansville. They are 4-0 ATS over the last three seasons and that number should improve tonight.

4* NO BRAINER on DePaul +

The Hoyas are coming off a hard fought road battle against Cincinnati and are in a spot for a letdown performance against DePaul. It is smart to play against favorites of 10 or more points like Georgetown when they are off a win against a conference rival and playing in February. This situation is 420-307 ATS over the last five seasons.

The DePaul Blue Demons may not have a great overall record on the season, but they can certainly perform well when they get enough rest. DePaul is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.

John Thompson III is 1-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games as the coach of Georgetown. Georgetown is a defense oriented team. The offense averages only 64 points per game at home so 14 points is a large number to cover for the style of basketball they play. DePaul is coming off a confidence boosting win over Rutgers and they should be able to keep this game close enough to cover such a large number.

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota Golden Gophers +

The Buckeyes have lost three of their last four games straight up and three consecutive games against the spread. In their last seven games Ohio State is forcing less than 10 turnovers per game on average. To win in the Big Ten you need points off of turnovers and the Buckeyes are not getting it done right now.

Both of these teams are not performing well in conference play lately, but Minnesota is a team that plays better when they have an active schedule. They are 10-1 ATS when playing their third game in a week over the last two seasons.

The Golden Gophers have not had a good shooting performance in their last few conference games, but they face a Buckeyes team that has given up over 50% shooting in two of their last three games and over 45% shooting in their last four games combined. Minnesota should be able to turn their shooting troubles around against a struggling Ohio State defense.

5* CBB NO DOUBT ROUT on BYU -

The BYU Cougars are 34-18 ATS in home games against teams who average 6 or less steals per game. Utah State is a slowdown team attempting less than 50 or less shots per game on the road. The combination of a slow offense and a defense that can

3* ODDSMAKER ERROR on Missouri St +

The Northern Iowa Panthers are a team that plays down to their level of competition. They are 8-23 ATS when playing against teams winning between 20% to 40% of their games after the 15 game mark in the season.

The Panthers also struggle when they fail to control the pace of the game. They like to run the ball up and down the court to ware their opponents out. Missouri State on the other hand, likes to slow things down and setup their offence. Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots per game over the last 3 seasons.

For an 8-19 team the Missouri State Bears are hot right now. They beat Indiana State by two points and played a close game on the road against Southern Illinois. Missouri State is 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival this season.

4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Bucknell +

The better team in this matchup is the road team as Bucknell and Lehigh battle it out for 1st in the Patriot League Conference. Lehigh is coming off a road loss against 10-17 Colgate, and now they face a Bucknell team that ranks 24th among division one teams in points allowed and 11th in shooting percentage allowed from the field.

This is a revenge game for the Bison. Lehigh won by three points back on January 23rd and this is Bucknell

4* PAC-12 POUNDING on Arizona -9

The way these teams match up presents a favorable advantage for the Wildcats. Utah is a slow-down team that likes to setup their offense on each trip down the court rather than trying to get on a fast break. They are also a team that is not overly aggressive on defense. ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons and 43-26 ATS in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season since 1997.

The Wildcats offense did not have a strong performance against Colorado in their last outing. That should have them motivated when they face Utah and they are 26-13 ATS after scoring 60 points or less since 1997. Arizona has played some tough competition on the road and generally teams will struggle defensively in those games. Not this Wildcats team. They have held opponents to 60.4 points per game and allow a mere 39.7 percent shooting.

Head coach Sean Miller should have his team motivated to play this mediocre Utah team. The Wildcats are coming off back to back losses against California at home and Colorado on the road. Miller is 22-8 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1997.

3* on Southern Illinois -

This matchup falls into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that returned 4 starters from last season when they are revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. This system is 102-65 ATS over the last five seasons.

The loss to Missouri State from earlier this season happened on the tail end of a three game road stretch. The Salukis are now revenging that game on their home court where they recently pulled off impressive wins over Wichita State and Evansville.

Missouri State is 1-10 on the road this season and they have been struggling lately dropping 7 of their last 10 games in conference play. Against common opponents both of these teams performed about the same statistically. However, Southern Illinois has a favorable advantage when it comes to forcing turnovers from their opponents. They managed to get 15.1 turnovers per game in the 13 games played against common opponents compared to just 9.8 turnovers forced by Missouri State.

3* on Kansas State -

The Baylor Bears are coming off a 20 point win West Virginia and their performance in that game has earned them more credit than they deserve from the oddsmakers. This matchup falls into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Baylor when they are scoring between 74-78 points per game and coming off a win by 15 points or more playing against an average offensive team scoring 67-74 points per game. This system is 108-58 ATS since 1997.

The Kansas State offense is not flashy and they are certainly not going to get into a shootout with many teams. However, they do a great job of avoiding turnovers and pulling in rebounds. Their defense has held opponents to 55.2 points per game when they are on their home court and they take 17 turnovers while committing only 12 of their own. Points scored off turnover margin should be enough to cover such a small number for Kansas State.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Ball State -

Eastern Michigan has not performed well away from home as they sit on a 0-10 road record. It does not appear things will get much easier when they face Ball State in round two of a Mid-American West Conference showdown. The Cardinals have already handed Eastern Michigan a two point loss in Ypsilanti, MI and now they have the luxury of facing the Eagles on their home court in Muncie, IN.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles average a mere 52 points per game on the road and have shot 34.5% from the field. You could say the Eagles have been heating up as they are up to 38.4% shooting in their last five games overall, but that number is still horrible. They rank 338th among division one teams in points scored.

The Ball State Cardinals do well against teams that shoot three pointers poorly. They are 12-2 ATS when their opponents make 23% to 30% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals should have no problem holding the Eagles to under 60 points in this game, especially considering the Eagles average of 52 points on the road includes some very soft defensive opponents. Ball State is 16-6 ATS when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons.

3* on Virginia Tech +

This is a lot of points for Virginia Tech to receive considering the Wolfpack have lost three of their last four games and are quickly working their way into the bottom of the ACC standings. Virginia Tech is coming off an embarrassing loss to in-state rival Virginia and that has them poised for a rebound game against NC State.

This matchup falls into a system to play on a road team like Virginia Tech when both teams are average defensively, allowing 67-74 points per game after completing 15 or more games in the season, when that road team is coming off a loss of 15 points or more. This system is 141-83 over the last five seasons.

You also want to play against home favorites of 10 or more points like NC State when they are coming off a win against a conference rival, in February games. This system is 345-239 over the last 5 seasons.

3* on Bradley +

It seems as though the wrong team is favored in this game. Bradley is revenging a loss against Indiana State from earlier this season and they have the luxury of doing it from their home court. Bradley is 46-25 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more since 1997.

The Indiana State Sycamores have lost five of their last six games on the road and seven of their 9 losses on the season have come away from their home court. They manage only 30.9% shooting from beyond the three point line and get only six steals while turning the ball over 14 times per game on the road.

The Bradley Braves are 11-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS on their home court. The smart money in this game is on the home team revenging a same season loss against an Indiana State team that has been horrible on the road.

5* NO DOUBT ROUT on Portland State -

The Portland State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record dating back to last season. The Vikings have to be looking forward to this home game against a weak Southern Utah team after completing a two game road stretch last Saturday. All five of the Vikings wins have come on their home court so they are definitely a more comfortable team in front of their own fan base.

Southern Utah averages just 64.2 points per game on the road, which is 9.8 per game less than the Vikings are scoring on their home court. The Thunderbirds are averaging a disgusting 19 turnovers per game on the road, 25 personal fouls and getting only 4 steals. Their defense is allowing 78.1 points on the road and 48% shooting from the field.

The Vikings are out for revenge in this game after getting beat in Southern Utah back on January 24th. This game should turn out quite a bit different since the Vikings play well at home and the Thunderbirds have been horrible on the road.

4* CBB NO BRAINER on Portland +

Both Portland and San Francisco are average teams so it is surprising to see the Pilots getting so many points here. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (65-69%) and average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) when that road dog is playing against a team that forces less than 14.5 turnovers. This system is 133-86 over the last 5 seasons.

The Pilots have managed to get off to some great starts defensively when playing on the road holding teams to 32.5 points at the half. They do not give up many rebounds allowing teams only 8 offensive rebounds and 32 total for the game, a feat with ranks them 78th among the 347 division one college basketball teams.

Against common opponents these teams share a similar record with the Pilots at 2-8 and the Dons at 3-7. These teams played in Portland on January 24th in a battle that could have gone either way. San Francisco ended up edging out the Pilots by three points, but this game should play similar to the last one.

3* on Seattle +

Seattle is getting too many points in this game considering all three of Louisiana Tech

3* on North Texas -

This line provides a lot of value on the Mean Green Eagles. North Texas returned 5 starters from last season compared to the 1 starter returned by LA-Monroe. The Warhawks are definitely going through a rebuilding year with a 3-17 record on the season and they have lost nine consecutive games coming into this matchup.

This game falls into a system to play against home teams as an underdog or pick when they are a poor offensive team that is scoring less than 64 points per game, coming off a performance with a combined score of 155 points or more. This system is 125-75 ATS since 1997.

The LA-Monroe offense ranks 323rd among division one teams averaging a mere 59.9 points per game. Even against a soft North Texas defense this will be an ugly game for the Warhawks. When comparing common opponents the Mean Green are scoring more points, committing less turnovers, getting more rebounds and holding opponents to a shooting percentage that is almost 5% less than what LA-Monroe is allowing.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Tennessee Tech +

This is a lot of points for the Golden Eagles to be receiving. This matchup falls into a system to play against favorites of 10 or more points like Eastern Kentucky when they are coming off a win against a conference rival, in February games. This system is 407-295 over the last 5 seasons. Those numbers tighten up to 343-238 ATS the last five seasons when that favorite is playing at home.

Early season statistics do not hold much weight, but after 15+ games it is pretty easy to get an understanding of a team

5* CBB NEVER LOST SYSTEM on Fullerton +

Fullerton has a lot of offensive firepower and I think it's going to be difficult for Long Beach to keep up with them tonight. The Titans are 12-11 overall but an impressive 7-6 on the road. As a visitor they are putting up 84.5 ppg on 50.6% shooting and they have hit 44.1% of their 3-point attempts. The outside shooting is important because they take roughly four more three point shots per game than their opponents normally allow.

Long Beach on the other hand only puts up 68.8 ppg and relies on a defense that is holding opponents to 63.8 ppg on 38.4% shooting at home. The problem is that this team has allowed teams that shoot 34.1% from 3-point range to connect on 35.4% of their outside shots, while also attempting three more per game than usual. This fits right into Fullerton's wheelhouse.

Fullerton will be out for some revenge after losing at home by 10 points to the 49ers earlier in the year. However, in that game they made only 5-of-24 from behind the arc. Obviously if they would have hit at their normal rate they would have easily won the game. I think oddsmakers have over-adjusted after that performance and the Titans win this one easily.

Fullerton is 8-0 ATS as an underdog this season and 6-0 ATS on the road after having lost two of their last three the last two.

3* CONFERENCE USA CASH on Tulane +

Southern Miss is struggling a little bit after having rolled through the early portion of the Conference USA schedule. They are coming off back-to-back losses as a favorite and a particularly frustrating game in which they allowed Memphis to score 89 points on 55.9% shooting in front of their home crowd. You want to fade home, double digit favorites in February after a home game in which both teams put up 75 or more points. This situation is 38-12 (76%) the last five seasons.

Tulane on the other hand has won two straight both straight up and against the spread. They are shooting the ball well and not turning it over. Plus, this is a solid rebounding team who limits opponents put backs and gets second chances of their own. Tulane is pulling down 11 offensive rebounds per game while opponents only grab seven. You want to take double digit underdogs in February who are giving up less than 9 offensive rebounds per game. These teams are 388-272 (58.8%) since 1997.

3* BIG EAST SIDE SMASH on DePaul +

This is what you would call a letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a thrilling 140-101 five overtime win over Louisville on Saturday. Now they get to play at home against one of the worst teams in the league in DePaul. I can see Notre Dame having a tough time getting up for this one, which makes the points attractive. You want to fade double digit favorites in February off a home win in which they scored 85 or more points. This system is 60-24 (71.4%) the last five seasons.

DePaul lost by eight at home to the Irish just two short weeks ago, so revenge is fresh in their minds while Notre Dame might relax against a team they took care of on the road. However, double digit underdogs are 779-580 (57.3%) revenging a home loss the last five years. When that team is off a road loss to a conference rival the number jumps to 208-137 (60.3%).

3* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Virginia Tech +

Virginia has been rolling lately but I think they are laying a few too many points here today against their in-state rivals. Virginia Tech has lost six in a row since dropping the first game in this series, but other than the Virginia game all of the losses have been by less than today's number.

In that game they were five point home underdogs, and now are getting almost ten more points on the road. That is a significant adjustment for a team that doesn't have to travel outside of the state. Plus, even though the Cavs won by 16 points, they hit over 50% of their shots and were 11-for-23 from behind the three point line. Virginia also committed eight less turnovers, despite being a more turnover prone team on the season than Virginia Tech is.

Last time out Virginia Tech had a disappointing home loss to Georgia Tech, but their second best player Jarell Eddie was benched for most of the second half after slamming a water bottle down following picking up his third foul. Virginia picked up a big win over Maryland on Sunday, so they didn't have much time to prepare for this game. With North Carolina on deck this is the perfect look past situation. I'll take the large number and the Hokies today.

You want to fade double digit home favorites playing on one or less days rest in February. Doing so would have gone 116-64 (64.4%) over the last four years. You want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. these teams are 779-580 (57.3%) the last five years, and when that team is off two straight conference losses that system tightens to 260-173 (60%).

4* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Idaho State +

How much attention could the Wildcats be paying to the Bengals? Weber is playing on one day's rest and they also have Montana coming up quickly, a team that is 14-0 in Big Sky play and two games in front of Weber in the league standings. They then play Montana State Saturday, the other conference foe that handed them a loss earlier in the year.

There is no doubt that Weber State is the better team here tonight as they come in with a 16-5 record compared to Idaho State's 4-18. However, you want to fade double digit favorites that have won 60% or more of their games when taking on a team that has won 20% of less. This situation is 59-28 (68%) over the last five seasons. The short rest also works against Weber as fading double digit favorites playing on one day's rest in February has gone 116-64 (64.4%) the last five years.

The public is going to look at how these teams have done recently and what happened the first time they squared off against each other. The first time these two teams met Weber won by 16 points on the road, shooting 55.8% from the floor and hitting 10-of-20 from behind the 3-point arc. Those are numbers that will be difficult to repeat, plus underdogs revenging a home loss against an opponent who have won less than 20% of their games taking on a team with a winning record are 69-34 (67%) the last five years.

The last time out the Wildcats beat Southern Utah by 17 points at home giving them four straight covers. Idaho State lost to that same Southern Utah team in their last game by two points on their home floor. The good news is that you want to fade double digit favorites off a blowout win by 15 or more points when playing an opponent after a close loss by three points or less. This system is 91-51 (64.1%) over the last five seasons.

3* on Furman +

Neither one of these teams is very good with Furman clocking into this game at 6-16 with Appalachian State at 10-13. However, Furman does seem to play well against bad teams, going 24-11 ATS when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons.

Furman has dropped three in a row with all of those games coming at home, but this team normally does a good job of bouncing back. The Paladins are 30-16 ATS off two straight conference losses since 1997 and 15-5 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games the last three years.

App State has had one day off since their 35 point drubbing by Davidson. It's going to be tough for them to bounce back so quickly and take on a poor team here on Monday night. I'll take the points.

4* LATE NIGHT BAILOUT on Seattle +

New Mexico State has been rolling, winning 10 straight games and covering six of their last seven. However, teams in smaller conferences that get hot like this get over-valued fairly quickly. Fading double digit favorites that have won 5 or 6 of their last seven ages playing their 2nd game in 3 days is 79-41 (65.8%) over the last five seasons. If you faded double digit favorite that have won 10 or more in a row you would be 160-93 (63.2%) the last five years.

Seattle played New Mexico State tough the first time around, losing 83-82 on their home floor. They lost despite hitting only 7-of-25 from behind the 3-point line. Now they are in a favorable spot since double digit underdogs revenging a home loss are 772-573 (57.4%) the last five years, but when they are playing their second road game in three days that number jumps to 136-80 (63%).

One of New Mexico State's best players, Tyrone Watson, was recently charged with assault and hasn't played the last three games. With Seattle matching up well against the Aggies the first time around, I think they will do even better without Watson on the floor.

3* BAILOUT on UNLV

The last time these two teams met was January 9th in New Mexico, with the Lobos coming out on top by five points. However, a closer look at that game brought to my attention a few key stats. The first is the fact that New Mexico shot 24 more free throws than the Rebels. The second is that UNLV had just four offensive rebounds in that game and lost the turnover battle by five. With both teams shooting at about the same rate, that's a lot of things that didn't go UNLV's way to basically lose by the home court advantage and now to lay the home court advantage here tonight.

New Mexico has been rolling as of late, covering six of their last eight games and winning seven of eight straight up. However, you want to play against hot teams that have covered six or seven of their last eight games when they have won 80% of their games on the year and are taking on another good team that has won at least 60%. This system is 119-66 (64.3%) over the last five seasons.

The last two times the Lobos have taken to the road against a quality opponent it hasn't ended well. They lost 34-55 at San Diego State and 46-60 at St. Louis. I think their road struggles continue tonight against UNLV.

5* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Tennessee State +

If you take a look at the common opponents these two teams have played, Tennessee State stands at 8-2 while Murray State is 8-2. The Tigers are actually winning by 7.7 ppg while the Racers are only winning by 5.6 ppg. In those games, Tennessee State is shooting 47% compared to Murray State's 43.5%, holding opponents to 41% compared to 41.9%, then nearly dead even in turnovers and rebounds.

These two teams are very evenly matched, which makes the points very enticing to begin with, but then you have to couple it with the fact that this is a letdown game for Murray State after pulling off the upset win at home against Belmont. That Thursday night game came down to the wire, and now after just one day of rest they have to take on another quality opponent.

Tennessee State also played on Thursday, but they took on Austin Peay in a game that they were favored by six on the road, so they could spend a little practice time leading up to that game focusing on today's opponent. I think you'll see the Tigers prepared and ready for the Racers here today.

4* BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -

Here you have two very evenly matched teams, but I think Kansas State gets their revenge at home against the Cyclones. Iowa State has been solid at home, but they are just 3-6 on the road this year. They played a couple of tough games at Kansas and at Oklahoma State, but the loss at Texas Tech is a red flag.

Kansas State is an under-rated team who is 11-1 at home and winning by nearly 20 ppg with that only loss coming against Kansas. There are two reasons I like this team quite a bit, they don't turn the ball over and they get a lot of offensive rebounds. This allows the Wildcats to shoot it about 6 times more per game than their opponents.

Back on January 26th, Iowa State beat K-State by six points on their home floor. In that game the Cyclones were 11-for-22 from behind the 3-point arc and shot 13 more free throws than their opponents. K-State also grabbed just five offensive rebounds. Everything went Iowa State's way that day and they barely covered, I think if things even out and with the change of venue the Wildcats should be favored by a few more points than they are here today.

3* HIGH ROLLER on DePaul +

Last time out Marquette was pretty impressive, beating South Florida on the road by 23 points. On the other hand you have DePaul coming off a 23 point loss at home to Villanova, but this actually creates some value in today's line. You want to fade favorites of 10 points or more that are coming off a blowout win by 20 or more points taking on a conference rival that lost by double digits last time out. This situation is 76-43 (63.9%) over the last five seasons.

DePaul hasn't looked good lately, but you want to take double digit underdogs that have been beaten by 48 points or more against the spread in their last ten games when hey have a losing record. These teams are 59-28 (68%) the last five years. Plus, if the double digit dog is coming off a game in which they were beaten on the spread by 18+ they are 95-52 (64.6%) in February.

Marquette probably won't give DePaul much of a tough tonight since they play at Georgetown on Monday in a game that will go a long way towards helping their chances of a Big East title. This is a classic look ahead situation and I'll take the underdog.

5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland -

I like how these two teams matchup with each other here tonight. Maryland is shooting 47.5% from the floor against teams allowing 43% while holding opponents to 36.3% shooting who normally hit 43.7%. Virginia Tech on the other hand is average at both shooting and field goal defense. What Virginia Tech does do well is get to the line, but Maryland is a team that doesn't foul so that is not going to help them out much here tonight.

Another area I think the Terps will dominate is on the boards. Maryland is average 43 rebounds on the year while their opponents only pull down 32. Virginia Tech is an average rebounding team that has lost the battle of the boards by 26 the last three games. The glass should belong to the Terps.

Maryland is coming off a dominant showing against Wake Forest on Saturday. They not only won by 26, but they also shot 67% while holding the Demon Deacons to 34.4%. They have won the rebounding battle by a total of 46 over their past three games and head coach Mark Turgeon is 21-9 ATS after four straight games out rebounding his opponent by six or more while the Terps are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in that situation.

Virginia Tech has lost four in a row and is coming off a heartbreaker to North Carolina. The Tar Heels beat the Hokies by 12 points in overtime. I think it's going to be tough for them to respond after coming so close to a big win, only to completely fall apart late. The Hokies haven't covered a home ACC game the last two years, going 0-10 ATS during that span.

The last time these two teams met was January 5th and the game went just like you would expect. Maryland won by 23 while shooting 51.7% and winning the rebounding battle. Virginia Tech shot just 37.3% and I don't see why tonight will be a whole lot different. You want to play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revering a blowout road loss of 20 points or more, off a game they covered or loss. This situation is 41-14 (74.5%) ATS the last five seasons.

3* on Nebraska-Omaha +

It's going to be easy for Western Illinois to look passed Nebraska-Omaha here tonight. This team stands at 9-2 in Summitt League play and has their next two games on the road at North Dakota State and South Dakota State, the two teams they are tied with atop the conference standings.

This is a lot of points for a team to be laying that scores only 61 and gives up 52.5 ppg. They are playing solid defense, but Nebraska-Omaha does shoot 47.2% from the floor so they can score points of their own. Nebraska-Omaha has shot 54% in their last five games, a big reason why they have pulled upsets off over South Dakota, UMKC, and IUPU-Fort Wayne and are now shooting 50.1% in conference play.

The first time these teams met Western Illinois won by a final of 89-74, but they shot 84.6% from the line in that game, 57.4% from the floor, and 55.6% from behind the arc. I know the Mavericks defense isn't near as good as the Leathernecks, but those stats are outliers and with a more normal night of shooting Nebraska-Omaha would have covered the first time around. I think with some regression to the mean they cover easily tonight.

You want to play on double digit underdogs revenging a home loss, these teams have gone 768-567 (57.5%) over the last five seasons. When that loss was by 10 points or more the system tightens to 436-306 (58.8%).

3* on Florida Atlantic +

When you look at Florida Atlantic's shooting percentage you see they only make 41.3% of their shots, but they take and make a lot of 3-point shots, hitting 37.8% on the year. Florida International gives up 34.6% from behind the arc and allow opponents to take 3 more shots from deep than they normally do a game. This bodes well for the Owls.

These two teams are fairly even, and being in the same state I don't think you are going to see as much home court advantage here tonight as you normally would. Atlantic is 7-8 against common opponents, losing by 0.8 ppg while International is 8-6 and losing by 0.5 ppg. Atlantic is 6-7 in the conference while International is 7-6.

Florida International is 0-6 ATS against teams scoring 64 points or less the second half of the last two seasons and 29-50 ATS as a favorite since 1997. With the matchup advantage relating to outside shooting, this isn't enough points for the Owls to be getting tonight.

4* on Buffalo -

Neither of these teams are very good, but I'll side with the road team here tonight due to the advantage they have on the glass. Buffalo is grabbing 2.6 more boards per game during MAC play than their opponents, while Buffalo is dead even. That should allow the team to get a few extra looks.

Eastern Michigan has put up some good defensive numbers, but that is largely due to playing a terrible schedule and of course the 8-for-61 gift that Northern Illinois supplied them a week and a half ago. This team has looked very average against the rest of the conference.

Buffalo wasn't shooting well early in the year but has hit their stride a little more as of late, shooting 46.3% over their last five games and holding opponents to just 41.1%.

Eastern Michigan's Glenn Bryant is questionable for this game and the Arkansas transfer is one of the best players on the team. If he's unable to go that's a lot of quality minutes that have to be eaten up by a weak bench. If he does play I can't imagine he's at 100%.

Buffalo is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1997.

3* on Oklahoma State -

Some might think the Cowboys are in a letdown spot after beating Kansas in Lawrence, but I think Oklahoma State keeps right on rolling. This team has now won three straight and has looked good in doing so.

The Cowboys last lost a couple of weeks ago to Baylor by a score of 64-54, but in that game they shot just 34.9% from the floor and made just two of their 16 3-point attempts. Baylor also shot 11 more free throws in that game. This sets us up for a nice little system that says you want to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a same season loss to an opponent in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of over 60%. These teams are 111-63 (63.8%) over the last five seasons.

Baylor is an over-rated team that took advantage of a weak non-conference schedule to pad their numbers. This team is shooting 45.5% from the floor, but only 40.1% in their 8 conference games. The Bears have dropped back to back games to Oklahoma and Iowa State and I don't see them getting back on track against a hot Cowboys squad. Against common opponents this year Oklahoma State is 4-2 with a 10.2 ppg margin of victory while Baylor is just 3-4 with a 5.1 margin of victory. If you factor in the home court the Cowboys should be laying more than they are.

3* Texas Tech +

Kansas State is in a bit of a letdown spot here today. Saturday they went to Oklahoma and pulled off a two point win over the Sooners in what was a hard fought, defensive battle that ended with a 52-50 final. It was a big win for the team, plus they have a rematch with Iowa State on deck. Plus, it puts us in a nice situation here today since you want to fade double digit favorites that are off a close win by three points or less when they have a winning record facing a losing team. This situation is 63-33 (65.6%) over the last five seasons. Also, Kansas State is 0-7 ATS on the road after giving up 55 or less the last three seasons.

Kansas State has done well in the conference by not turning the ball over, but they aren't grabbing many rebounds either. While they won't turn the ball over tonight against Texas Tech's no pressure defense, they won't get many rebounds either. With the Red Raiders being a decent rebounding team I'm giving them the edge on the glass and with that edge they should be able to keep it to single digits at home against a Wildcat team that doesn't score very many points.

4* MAC Game of the Week on Central Michigan +

I'll take the large number of points here tonight as I think Central Michigan keeps this one somewhat close. You aren't going to find a lot of public support for this play since Akron has won 13 straight games and two in a row at the pay window. They are coming off a 86-72 beating of their toughest MAC opponent in Ohio they could be in for a little bit of a letdown here tonight. All of this gives us a little bit of value with a line this big. Fading favorites of 10 or more points off nine or more wins is 201-124 (61.8%) the last five years, but when that team is facing a team with a losing record the system tightens to 79-45 (63.7%).

The fact that Akron won in such a blowout fashion is important in another way. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points off a home win in February, this situation is 210-135 (60.9%) over the last five seasons. However, when that team scored 85 or more points in their previous game this system tightens to 57-24 (70.4%).

Central Michigan is an ugly team. They don't shoot very well (39.8% on the year) and they give up a terrible field goal percentage (46.7%). However, what they do well is shoot free throws (hitting 72.4%). That puts them in a very favorable situation here tonight that says to take road underdogs of 10 or more points who make 72% or more of their free throws, shoot 42% or worse from the field, and allow 45% or better shooting from their opponents. These teams are 52-22 (70.3%) the last five years.

The free throw advantage is what keeps this thing closer than the oddsmakers expect. Central Michigan gets to the line three times more per game than opponents normally allow while Akron allows two more free throws per game than their opponents normally take. Those extra freebies give us an edge with this one.

4* BIG EAST BEST BET on Marquette +

Louisville has not played good basketball for the past few weeks and yet they are still laying double digits to a Marquette team that has. The Cardinals have lost four straight at the pay window and snuck by with a three point win over Pitt at home to end a three game straight up losing streak. Louisville isn't shooting the ball very well right now and that is going to cause them trouble against a Golden Eagle team that can defend. Marquette is allowing just 39.7% from the floor.

Louisville pressures the basketball but that can also lead to picking up a few too many fouls, and there aren't many teams better than Marquette at getting to the free throw line. The Golden Eagles rarely turn the ball over either, so I think they will be able to control the ball and keep from giving Louisville easy buckets in transition.

Marquette is 6-0 against common opponents and winning by 7.4 ppg. Louisville on the other hand is just 5-1, but winning by 12.5 ppg. I don't doubt that Louisville is the better team and they should pick up the win, but it's going to be a dog fight so I'll take the large number.

4* on Santa Clara +

Santa Clara is a very under-rated team and I like them today to keep this game close against BYU in Provo. Santa Clara will definitely have revenge on their minds as the Cougars went on the road earlier this year and beat the Broncos on their home floor by 18 points. In that game BYU shots 53.6% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range while hitting 72.7% of their free throws. Santa Clara on the other hand made only 38.5% of their shots, 31.8% of their 3's and 46.7% of their free throws. On the year the Broncos are the BETTER shooting team than the Cougar so when those numbers regress towards the mean, it means these two teams are a lot more comparable than it appeared the first time they met.

Santa Clara is also the hotter team. They have won five in a row and have shot 48% or better in four of those five games. Both of these teams are on short rest as each played Thursday. However, I think Santa Clara probably snuck some extra practice time in preparing for this game as they had Portland Thursday, a team they beat by 24 points. BYU was on the road and lost to Pepperdine, a team they were favored to beat by double digits. You want to take road teams revering a home loss against an opponent playing on one or less days of rest. These teams are 337-235 (59%) the last five years.

5* Summit League Game of the Year on South Dakota +

These two teams met back in early January and North Dakota State won by 26 points. However, a closer look at that game shows that the Bison hit 63.8% of their shots and 52.6% from behind the arc. They also hit 80% from the free throw line. Now, I know North Dakota State is a good shooting team but that was an aberration that significantly stretched out the margin of victory and gave us some line value with this game here today.

South Dakota has played 11 games against common opponents and while they are only 5-6, they are actually outscoring those foes by a total of 2.9 ppg. North Dakota State on the other hand clocks in at 9-3, but is outscoring those opponents by 12.7 ppg. The weak schedule the Bison has played also inflates their overall stats. North Dakota State's opponents get outscored by 2.8 ppg, while South Dakota's actually average a 1.2 point win.

One advantage to this matchup is South Dakota gets tot he free throw line, taking three more free throw attempts per game than their opponents normally allow. North Dakota State does foul a little more than average teams, so the Coyotes should be able to take advantage of their team free throw rate of 78.2% in this game.

A couple of systems support our play here. You want to fade home favorites playing their 2nd game in three days in February. This situation is 102-55 (65%) the last five seasons. If you are fading double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more taking on an opponent off a double digit loss you would be 74-40 (65%) the last five seasons.

You want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 points or more. These teams are 436-298 (59.4%) over the last five seasons and when that team is off a conference road loss those numbers jump to 164-96 (63.1%).

3* on Central Michigan -

Miami Ohio is just 2-7 on the road this year, scoring 58.9 ppg while giving up 73.2. The Redhawks have lost four in a row, three of which came at home. Central Michigan has not been shooting the ball well lately but should be in for an easier go of things today against a Miami team that hasn't allowed less than 51% from the floor since January 12th.

The Chippewas love to shoot 3-pointers, attempting 24 per game on the year. The good news is they will be facing a Miami team that is allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% from deep. These two teams have played seven common opponents. Central Michigan is just 3-4 with a -4.3 differential, but Miami is 2-5 and losing by 6.6 ppg.

Last year Central Michigan lost at Miami by 19 points so they should be out for a little bit of revenge here today. In that game they shot only 34% from the floor and 22.2% from behind the arc, while the Redhawks shot 53% from 3-point range. Those numbers should regress here today, so I'll take the home team that is better and gets the advantage of having their fans cheer them on.

3* on Western Michigan -

This is too low of a number for the Broncos to be laying here today. Western Michigan is 13-7 on the year, winning by 4.3 ppg and 6-1 at home with a 13.8 margin of victory. Buffalo on the other hand is 8-13 and only 3-9 on the road, averaging a five point loss.

There are two areas were I think Western Michigan matches up extremely well with Buffalo. The first is they only allow 39.4% from the floor and Buffalo is a below average shooting team. The second is the Broncos get to the line five more times per game than their opponents normally allow and they hit 72.4% of their free ones. Buffalo gives up two more free throws per game than opponents normally take, so expect plenty of opportunities at the line for Western Michigan here today.

Western Michigan has won five games in a row, including the last two on the road. I think this Broncos team will be excited to get back home and keep the winning streak alive in front of the home crowd.

3* on Oklahoma -

Oklahoma is going to be out for revenge today when they take on Kansas State. The Sooners lost by nine up in Manhattan on January 19th, but this team is a lot better at home than on the road. Oklahoma is 7-1 and winning by 13.8 ppg on in Norman.

The Sooners have been playing well and is under-rated. Since their November 23rd loss to Gonzaga this team is 8-3 ATS and their three losses at the pay window were by 1.5, 1.5, and half a point.

Kansas State has played well this year, but they have only faced one real road test and that was last Saturday's six point loss up at Iowa State. This Wildcat team has played an easy schedule and that has inflated their numbers. They excel at defending the three point shot, but that isn't going to do them much good against a Sooner team that thrives inside.

Sure, the Wildcats are coming off a big win over Texas, but they are just 0-6 ATS on the road after a win by 15+ points the last two years and 4-12 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg the second half of the last two seasons.

3* on UMKC +

This is a quick turnaround for both teams today as they both took to the court Thursday night. The difference is that Thursday South Dakota State played their in-state rival South Dakota. Rivalry games tend to take a little more out of teams than normal contests. In fact, you want to fade double digit favorites off home wins against conference rivals in February games. This situation is 202-127 (61.4%) the last five seasons. When the line is 20+ those numbers jump to 92-49 (65.2%).

The focus and energy on today's game has to be an edge given to the Kangaroos. Double digit underdogs playing their second road game in three days in February are 88-37 (70.4%) the last five years. Even though UMKC was blown out last time out, that actually gives us a little bit of value with today's line. Underdogs of 20+ points off a double digit conference loss are 33-10 (76.7%) the last five Februarys.

I know South Dakota State took care of UMKC down in Kansas City rather easily. But that is yet another situation that opens up value for us today because 20+ point underdogs who are revenging a double digit home loss are 84-32 (72.4%) the last five years.

If you look at the scoring margins for these two teams you'll find them a little misleading. UMKC is losing by 10.1 ppg, while South Dakota State is winning by 6.9. However, the Jackrabbits opponents get beat by an average of two points per game, while the Kangaroos foes are winning by a point per game. The stronger schedule of UMKC has slightly de-valued their stat line and made them an under-rated team in conference play.

3* on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +

Both of these teams played Wednesday night and now have a quick turnaround playing again tonight. Typically the advantage in these situations falls with the underdog because fading double digit favorites who have covered 5 or 6 of their last seven against the spread playing on a day or less of rest has gone 79-40 ATS (66.4%) the last five years. If you had faded any double digit favorite playing their second game in three days in February you would have been 102-55 (65%) the last five seasons. Add in the fact that Wisconsin-Milwaukee is out for revenge in this game and you fall into a 181-113 (61.6%) ATS system that says to take double digit underdogs out for revenge playing their 2nd game in three days.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a bad team, having lost four in a row and seven of their last eight. They are coming off a cover against Loyola though and that should give them some confidence with the quick turnaround. Valparaiso on the other hand might be in a letdown situation. They snapped a six game losing streak on Wednesday losing by double digits as a three point favorite at Youngstown State. You want to fade home favorites off an upset loss by ten points or more that play an opponent off a double digit road loss. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3%) the last five seasons.

I think there is value in the large dog tonight, so I'll take the big number.

5* Friday Night NO BRAINER on Rider +

Rider is going to be out for revenge against Fairfield here tonight. They lost back on December 9th loss at home, but in that game the Broncs shot just 37.8% from the field and made two of their seven 3-point attempts. They also turned the ball over 29 times which is uncharacteristically high for a team averaging only 16 a game and a Fairfield defense that forces 14 per contest.

There is also some value in this line due to the face that Rider is off two home upset home losses. Rebounding and defense were issues in those games and you can bet the Broncos worked hard in practice this week to correct those mistakes. The Stags on the ether hand are coming off a pair of wins, but that stopped the bleeding on a five game losing streak. This fits a nice little system that says to fade home favorites off two straight conference wins when they are playing a team off two straight double digit home losses. This situation is 44-13 ATS (77.2%) since 1997.

The numbers support our play here tonight. The Broncs are dead even on the year, scoring 64 ppg while giving up 64.1 while the Stags are outscoring their foes by 2.2 ppg. The difference is that Rider has played the tougher schedule which makes these teams even more even than their margins.

The matchup advantage to watch will be how well Rider does getting to the line. They typically shoot a higher rate of free throws than their opponents normally allow, while Fairfield is known to be a foul machine. Those extra shots from the charity stripe will add up, and keep this game close. I'll take the points in a game the Broncos could easily win outright.