Sports Picks & Predictions

3* Bailout on Arkansas State -

This line is not an accurate reflection of the disparity in talent between these teams. Arkansas State posted an 18-12 overall record, while Arkansas-Little Rock comes into this game with a losing record of 15-16 overall. The Red Wolves also finished higher in Sun Belt standings. When these teams met in January the Red Wolves picked up a 28 points win. They may have lost on the road against the Trojans, but that was a close game and on a neutral court Arkansas State should have no problem picking up another dominating win.

The Red Wolves offense averages 75.7 points per game. When playing away from home that number only dips slightly down to 74.4 points per game. Arkansas-Little Rock on the other hand averages just 70.1 points per game overall. The Trojans see their offensive production take a big hit on the road dropping down to 67.5 points per game. Arkansas State also has a defensive advantage holding opponents to 70.4 points per game to 72.7 points allowed by the Trojans.

4* ACC ATS Bloodbath on Syracuse -

Syracuse struggled down the final stretch of the regular season, but they have had plenty of time to regroup coming into the conference tournament. I think they are at a huge advantage playing with four full days of rest, while NC State is playing in a back-to-back situation after squeaking by Miami in the opening round yesterday. The Orange may have lost four of their last six games, but it is important to remember those are the only four losses the team suffered all season.

The biggest advantage Syracuse has in this matchup is its outstanding zone defense. The Orange have held opponents to a mere 59.3 points per game this season, a feat that gives them the country's ninth ranked scoring defense. These teams met once this season and it was Syracuse that walked away with a win. That win may have been by a slim margin, but a big reason for that can be credited to the fact that the Orange were coming off a close road win over longtime rival Pitt in the game just three days prior.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Syracuse. You should play on neutral court favorites like the Orange when they are coming off two or more consecutive overs and they are facing an opponent coming off three or more consecutive overs. This system identifies favorites that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 65-34 (66%) ATS system.

3* Big Ten Main Event on Wisconsin -

Wisconsin is clearly the better team and laying such a small number clearly puts the value on the Badgers. Wisconsin finished the regular season by winning eight of its nine final games. They have had four days to rest and prepare for tournament play, and that will be a big advantage going up against a Minnesota team that is playing in a back-to-back situation. College teams do not play on back-to-back nights very often, and I don't think the Gophers will be conditioned well enough to compete with a top tier team like Wisconsin when playing in this situation.

These teams met twice during the regular season and Wisconsin picked up a win in the most recent meeting. The biggest advantage the Badgers have is a scoring defense that has surrendered just 64.2 points per game this season. The offense is averaging 73.1 points per game and the Badgers are poised to easily match that number against the Gophers soft defense. Minnesota has surrendered 71.9 points per game when playing away from home.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Michigan +

The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this matchup. Western Michigan comes into this game with two less losses than Akron, and they have a statistically significant advantage on both ends of the court. They also have a better conference record at 14-4 to 13-6 from the Zips.

Offensively Western Michigan averages 71.9 points per game. They are up against an Akron defense that has surrendered 72.5 points per game when playing away from home this season. On the defensive side of things Western Michigan is surrendering a mere 67.4 points per game overall, and it should be easy to match that number since Akron is not a high scoring team with 68.1 points scored per game.

Western Michigan has won 10 of its last 11 games coming into this game. They are averaging 77.4 points per game over their last five games, and it is their explosive offense that makes them an easy call over Akron. We will take the points, but I expect Western Michigan to win this game outright.

5* Atlantic 10 Tournament Game of the Year on VCU -

This is a perfect spot to jump on VCU. Richmond is playing undermanned right now with the injury to leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay. While the Spiders were able to come away with an impressive 76-64 win over Duquesne in their A-10 tournament opener, that didn't come as a huge surprise. Richmond beat Duquesne by 17-points on the road without Linsay back on Feb. 12. While the Spiders only lost by 6-points at home to VCU recently (March 6), the Rams didn't show up until the second half of that game.

I look for the score to be a lot more lopsided this time around. VCU isn't going to take Richmond likely after almost losing to them. Another big key here is the Spiders are playing on no rest, while VCU is fresh off a 5-day layoff. That pressure defense that the Rams rely so much on should be at its finest and I expect it to lead to an easy double-digit win.

Richmond is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a game where they covered the spread and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team that has won 60% or more of their games. VCU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record.

4* Atlantic 10 No Brainer on St Joseph's -

The Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in the Atlantic 10 and I think they easily get past the Flyers today. Dayton has not performed well on the road this season. They are scoring 73.6 points per game, but the defense has surrendered 72 points per game. St Joseph's on the other hand comes into this matchup holding opponents to 69.9 points per game on the road and 67.8 points per game overall. In a game with a single point line that is a very statistically significant difference in scoring defense.

Another key factor for today's game will be free throws. The Hawks are a very smart team averaging just 16 personal fouls per game, and sending opponents to the free throw line for an average of 18 attempts per game. Dayton on the other hand has a lot of problems getting into foul trouble. They average 23 personal fouls per game when playing on the road, and their opponents have averaged 28 free throw attempts in those games. Those extra attempts from the line will prove to be a big factor in a game that is projected to be close, and it gives the Hawks a significant advantage.

The Dayton Flyers have not performed well against slow-down teams like the Hawks. They are 14-28 against the spread against teams averaging 53 or less shot attempts per game after 15 or more games on the season. St Josephs secured a first round bye and they are well rested coming into this matchup. The Hawks are coming off a loss to La Salle to end the regular season and they are 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.

5* No Doubt Rout of the Year on Virginia -

I don't think Florida State is worthy of playing in this quarterfinals matchup against Virginia, and the Cavaliers should have no problem picking up a double-digit win. These teams met twice during the regular season and the Cavaliers picked up a 12-point win in both of those games. Playing on a neutral court does not help the Seminoles since they could not even keep the game within single digits when playing at home.

The Virginia Cavaliers have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the country. They have held opponents to a mere 55.4 points per game. Florida State is not a high scoring team to begin with averaging just 68 points per game when playing away from home. Virginia also enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country having won 13 of its last 14 games.

Florida State is a team that buckles under the pressure of playing a quality opponent. The Seminoles are 2-13 ATS versus teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. The Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game this year. Virginia is also well rested since they secured a first round bye in the tournament. They are 13-3 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season.

4* C-USA Tournament Vegas Insider on Louisiana Tech -

The Bulldogs should have no problem covering this large spread against Charlotte. Louisiana Tech destroyed the 49ers 80-60 in the only regular season meeting. Keep in mind that Charlotte had a full 4 days to prepare for that game. This time around they must face the Bulldogs on no rest, as they had to play UAB yesterday.

Louisiana Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons, while the 49ers are a dreadful 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games at least 15 games into the season versus an opponent who is outscoring the opposition by 8+ points/game. The Bulldogs are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against poor pressure defenses that forced 14 or fewer turnovers/game and have have won these contest by an average of 16.4 ppg.

3* No Doubt Rout on Texas -

The Longhorns are an easy call in this matchup with West Virginia. Texas has been underrated all season long, and playing on a neutral court takes away any advantage West Virginia would have had over the Longhorns. The Mountaineers struggled on the road this season with a 6-9 record, and only three of those road wins came during conference play, and they happened to come against three of the worst teams in the Big 12.

Texas has a huge rebounding matchup over the Mountaineers. The Longhorns rank fourth in the country in rebounds per game with 41.8, and those extra rebounds will translate to extra shot attempts. Both of these teams have put up similar shooting percentages from the field, so I think those extra rebounds and shot attempts will be a huge factor in this game. Texas has also been a very good ball control team this season committing just 12 turnovers per game on average.

These teams met twice this season and Texas picked up a 2-0 sweep over West Virginia. When playing on the Mountaineers home court the Longhorns won by 11 points. Playing at home Texas picked up a dominating 17 point win. This is a neutral court matchup, but I expect the end result to easily land somewhere between those two prior games. Texas has a 22-9 record this season and they have faced a total of nine ranked teams. The Longhorns might be the biggest sleeper in the Big 12, and they will have no problem getting past the Mountaineers today.

3* AAC Tournament Main Event on Cincinnati -

The Bearcats earned the No. 1 seed in the American Athletic Tournament, but aren't getting a whole lot of respect. Oddsmakers listed Louisville as the overwhelming favorite and even Memphis had better odds to win the tournament. This can't be sitting well with Cincinnati and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make a big time statement with a blowout win over a pretty bad UCF team.

The Knights won a dogfight yesterday against Temple 94-90 and I just don't see them being able to match the Bearcat's energy in this one. Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country and should be playing with a lot of energy on that side of the ball with a full 4 days of rest.

The important thing to note is that Cincinnati won both meetings during the regular season by more than the spread listed. They won 69-51 at home and 77-49 at UCF. This is clearly not a good matchup for the Knights and I expect this to get ugly rather quickly.

UCF is just 2-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field this season and have lost these contests by an average of 14.5 ppg. The Knights are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that has won more than 60% of their games. Cincinnati is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 5 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral site. Combined this adds up to a 76% system in favor of the Bearcats.

4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back when playing away from home this season. They have posted a 10-6 ATS record in road games. CS-Fullerton on the other hand has been a great team to fade away from home, posting a 4-10 ATS record.

The value in this matchup is on Long Beach State laying the points. They are going up against a Fullerton defense that has surrendered 73.8 points per game on the road this season. The 49ers also have a big advantage on the boards. They average 37 rebounds per game, with 12 coming on the offensive glass. Fullerton on the other hand averages only 34 rebounds per game (-1 rebounding margin) with a mere nine boards coming on the offensive glass.

Long Beach State is 65-39 ATS in road or neutral court games when playing against a team with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has an 8-16 ATS record against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game. The 49ers come into this matchup averaging a mere 12 turnovers per game. Long Beach State is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last six games, while CS-Fullerton has lost two consecutive coming into tournament play.

5* Mountain West Tournament Game of the Year on UNLV -

This may be the Mountain West Tournament, but it is a home game for UNLV. There is not a lot of travel for the Rebels, while the Cowboys make the trek to Las Vegas as heavy underdogs. Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. They average a mere 57.5 points per game when playing on the road or in a neutral court game, and they are facing a UNLV team that is averaging 72 points per game on the season.

The Rebels are an outstanding team defensively. They have held opponents to just 65.1 points per game at home this season. Against this Cowboys team that struggles on the road they should easily improve on that number. The Cowboys will also be without Larry Nance who happens to be the team's leading scorer. The Cowboys would struggle against the Rebels with Nance, but without him this matchup will be a double-digit blowout.

Wyoming is struggling coming into the conference tournament. They have lost four of their last five games straight up, and they have lost five of their last six games against the spread. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the bar high enough without Nance in the lineup for the Cowboys, so that is a trend that should continue today. Lay the points with the Rebels because they should win this game in a blowout.

3* American Athletic Afternoon Annihilator on Louisville -

Louisville comes into today's showdown with Rutgers on a full 4 days of rest, while the Scarlet Knights have a quick turnaround from victory yesterday against South Florida. The Cardinals closed out the regular season 9-1 over their final 10 games and finished with a 33-point statement win over Connecticut. This is a lot of points to be laying, but there's a big enough gap in talent that Louisville should win here by 20+ rather easily. While the Cardinals won just 83-76 at Rutgers in the first meeting, they destroyed the Scarlet Knights 102-54 in the second meeting at home.

When Louisville is rolling is typically a good idea to jump on the bandwagon. The Cardinals 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games off a conference win, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games with a 4-1 record over their last 5 and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a home win. This is also the time of the season where Louisville shines. The Cardinals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in the month of March. It's also worth noting that the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games played on a neural site.

5* Conference Tournament No Brainer on San Diego State -

The Aztecs closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak, including a thrilling 51-48 come from behind win over New Mexico in the finale to give them the outright Mountain West title. I look for No. 8 ranked San Diego State to carry over that momentum with a convincing win over Utah State. While this will be the Aztecs first game of the Mountain West Tournament, the Aggies had to play Colorado State yesterday. No rest is bad news for Utah State against a top notch team like San Diego State.

The Aztecs won both meetings during the regular season, winning 74-69 on the road and 60-45 at home. San Diego State should have no trouble winning here by double-digits, so don't worry about the 8-point spread.

While the Aggies come in having won three straight, they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off 3 or more consecutive wins against conference opponents. Utah State is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field.

San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.

5* ACC Tournament Game of the Year on Pitt -

The Pitt Panthers might be the biggest sleeper in the ACC and I don't think they will have any problem getting past Wake Forest today. This is a neutral court matchup which plays heavily in the Panthers favor since the Demon Deacons are 3-11 when playing away from home this season. Against conference opponents Wake Forest has averaged a mere 66.4 points per game, and when playing on the road or a neutral court that average dips down to 65.9 points per game.

Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the conference. They have held opponents to a mere 62.5 points per game this season. The team ranks 23rd in the country in scoring defense. On the offensive end of the court Pitt should have no problem putting up a big number. The Demon Deacons have surrendered 76.5 points per game on the road this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play on neutral court favorites like Pitt after one or more consecutive overs and their opponent has gone over the total three or more consecutive times. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the favorite. It has resulted in a 121-68 (64%) record against the spread. When the favorite is coming off two or more consecutive overs the system tightens up to 64-31 (67%) against the spread.

3* A-10 Tournament Play of the Day on Dayton -

The Flyers have been a team on a mission down the stretch. Dayton is 9-1 since Feb. 1 and are an impressive 7-3 ATS during this run. Don't be fooled by Fordham's 70-67 upset win over George Mason in the opening round of the A-10 Tournament. The Rams had lost 8 straight prior to that victory and six of those losses came by double-digits. In the lone meeting between these two teams this season, Dayton won 80-68 at Fordham, which leaves plenty of reason to believe they can win on a neutral setting by 11+. Keep in mind that the Flyers have a big advantage here playing on a full 4 days of rest, while the Rams are forced to play their second game in two days.

Even with yesterday's win over George Mason, Fordham is 3-12 on the road this season. One of the keys to playing to Dayton is that the Rams are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games off a win and have lost these contests by an average of 21.3 ppg.

Dayton is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that has won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral site.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Tulsa -

These teams met once earlier this season and it was the same kind of blowout I think we can expect today in the C-USA Tournament. Tulsa picked up a 97-71 win in that first meeting. Tulane is a very soft team defensively. They have allowed just shy of 73 points per game when playing on the road, while their opponents scoring average is only 69.9 points per game. Today they run into a Tulsa team averaging 73.2 points per game.

Tulsa is the hot team coming into this matchup. Tulane has lost two of their last three, and they did not deserve to win the game against North Texas in their last outing. Tulsa on the other hand has won eight consecutive games straight up, and 10 consecutive against the spread. The Golden Hurricane's opponents have a scoring average of almost 71 points per game, yet they have held those opponents to 68.2 points per game. That tells me this is a very talented team defensively, and they are facing a Tulane team that averages just 61.3 points per game on the road.

Tulsa is 8-1 against the spread when facing a poor ball movement teams that average less than 12 assists per game. Tulane averages just nine assists per game while committing 13 turnovers which is a good indication of just how bad the Green Wave are. If you think revenge is going to be a factor you can think again. The first matchup was played back in January, so I doubt the Green Wave will draw much motivation from that loss. It is also worth noting that Tulane is 11-22 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.

3* ACC Play of the Day on Boston College +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup. Boston College should have no problem winning this game against Georgia Tech. The Eagles may have finished towards the bottom of the ACC standings, but the Yellow Jackets were right there with them. Statistically Boston College is a much better team than Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 65 points per game away from home while allowing 69.1 points in those games. Meanwhile, Boston College comes into this matchup averaging 68.6 points per game on the season.

I think the Eagles defensive stats are a bit misleading. When you look at their strength of schedule, Boston College's opponents have a scoring average over 70 points per game. Facing a lowly team like Georgia Tech provides a great opportunity for Boston College to showcase its defensive talents.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Eagles. You should play on an underdog like Boston College when they are revenging a close loss by three points or less, and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to severely undervalue underdogs, and it has resulted in a 130-77 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +

The Utah Utes have not been a very good team on the road, and although this is not a traditional road game, I still think they will struggle on a neutral court against an underrated team like Washington. These teams met twice this season and split their games in some very close battles. At this price I think the value is on the underdog since this is a matchup that will be close, but could certainly be won by either team.

The Utes take a big hit in offensive production when playing on the road. Their scoring average drops from 77 points per game down to 64 points per game. Washington on the other hand may have a slightly lower overall scoring average at 74.9 points per game, but their 70.5 points per game away from home will give them a big advantage over the Utes today.

The Huskies had a strong finish to the season winning three of their final four games. They closed the season with a win over USC, but failed to cover the spread in their last two matchups. Washington is 25-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. Utah comes into this matchup playing some of its worst defense of the season. The Utes are 21-49 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five seals or less.

5* Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTSA +

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners did not have a great season overall, but I still think they are a n easy call in this matchup with one of the conference's worst teams, East Carolina. The Roadrunners biggest problem this season was a defense that struggled to slow opponents down. During the final stretch of the regular season they seemed to have things back on track defensively. The team allowed over 76 points per game on the season, but over their last five games they held opponents to a mere 71.4 points per game.

East Carolina averages just 70.3 points per game when playing away from home. The defense has surrendered 72.8 points per game in those games. The Pirates only faced the Roadrunners once this season and that game was played at East Carolina. On a neutral court UTSA should have no problem narrowing the margin of defeat, and I even expect the Roadrunners to have a good chance at winning this game in the final seconds.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the UTSA Roadrunners. You should play against teams like East Carolina on a neutral court when they have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games and they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system has a 50-15 (77%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on South Dakota State -

Winning during a conference tournament has a lot to do with which teams get hot at the right time. There is no team in the Summit League hotter than the Jackrabbits. They have won nine of their last 10 games, and after putting a 21 point beat down on Western Illinois I like there chances to pick up a big win on a neutral court against IPFW.

These teams split their games this season. When IPFW played host the squeaked by with a seven point win in a game that was much closer than the final score. When the Jackrabbits played host they dominated with a 28 point victory. The neutral court is going to favor the better team, and that better team is without a doubt South Dakota State.

Not only has South Dakota State been winning games straight up, they have also covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games. They have done so by playing outstanding defense. IPFW has played a soft schedule down the stretch and that has afforded the Mastodons with a 54.5 percent shooting percentage from the field over their last five games. They won't have that luxury today against this Jackrabbits team that has allowed a mere 39.9 percent shooting percentage over their last five games.

3* Main Event on Miami Ohio -

The records for these teams are a bit misleading. Miami Ohio played a very tough non-conference schedule so they are coming into the first round of the MAC Tournament with a 12-17 overall record. Their 8-10 record in MAC play is one game better than opponent Kent State. The RedHawks have a recent win over the Golden Flashes, beating Kent State on its home court 73-61 just under a week ago.

The Golden Flashes finished the regular season by losing four of their last five games. They are averaging a mere 65 points per game during that stretch, while allowing 68.6 points per game on the defensive end of the court. Kent State has not fared well on the road this season, and with home court advantage there is no reason the RedHawks cannot pick up another double-digit win against the Golden Flashes tonight.

Fading Kent State come tournament time has proved to be a very lucrative move over the last few seasons. They Golden Flashes are 2-11 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. These teams may have split games this season with Kent State winning the first meeting, but that victory was a statistical anomaly. The Golden Flashes made 58 percent of their 26 three-point attempts in that game, and that is a feat that is very unlikely to take place again since the team has made just 34.6 percent of their attempts on the season. The matchup from last week is a more telling indicator of what we can expect to see tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on La Salle +

The Explorers are an easy call in this matchup against Saint Joseph's. La Salle will have several key advantages today. They are the better rebounding team pulling in 36 boards per game which ranks 114th in the nation. The Hawks on the other hand rank 151st in the nation in rebounds per game. Defensively La Salle has played incredibly well this season, especially when on the road. They are holding opponents to just 66.2 points per game.

The Hawks do not have a lot to play for in this game. They cannot move ahead of Saint Louis in the A-10 standings, so at this point they are just trying to prepare for the conference tournament. La Salle comes into this matchup having won two of its last three games. They are playing to end the season on a positive note after a bad stretch in February.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against favorites like St Josephs when they have gone over the total by more than six points in four consecutive games, and they are playing against an opponent that has gone under the total by 36 points or more combined in their last five games. This system is 40-20 (67%) against the spread.

4* False Favorite Game of the Week on Colorado State +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Wyoming is a very overrated team. The last time these teams met the Rams picked up a 15 point win. The change in venue may allow the Cowboys to decrease that margin of loss, but it will not be enough for them to win this game.

Colorado State is averaging 73.4 points per game this season. The Cowboys come into this matchup averaging a mere 64.6 points per game. The reason Wyoming was blown out by the Rams in the first meeting of the season is because they are a poor rebounding team. Colorado State pulls in 38 rebounds per game, with 11 of them coming on the offensive glass. The Cowboys on the other hand are averaging 29 rebounds per game with just four coming on the offensive glass.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on Colorado State. You should take a team like the Rams when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that averages less than 12 turnovers per game, and they are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system has a 212-158 (57%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Utah has been horrible on the road this season posting a 2-7 record. They are facing a very underrated Stanford team that averages 78 points per game at home. The Cardinal are 11-4 in home games, which includes a 10-3 record against the spread.

Stanford also has a very underrated defense. The Cardinal have held opponents to a mere 66.2 points per game at home this season. Stanford is also 8-2 ATS in home games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Utah has forced an average of 12 turnovers per game on the road this season.

The Utes have some artificially inflated shooting statistics thanks to a very soft schedule. That should not slow the Cardinal down since they have a 63-42 ATS record when facing teams that are making 48% or more of their shot attempts. Utah may average 49.6 percent from the field overall this season, but when playing on the road that number dips down to 41.7 percent shooting. The Utes also go from averaging 77.8 points per game to 64.9 points per game on the road.

3* American Athletic Game of the Week on UConn +

This is a lot of points for a game that could easily be won by UConn. The Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country surrendering 62.8 points per game. In the last game against Louisville the Huskies suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance. They were held to 35 percent shooting from the field, and that is unlikely to take place again today.

UConn is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won three straight games, including a victory over then No. 11 ranked Cincinnati. I don't think Louisville will get a big benefit from home court advantage since UConn has dominated on the road with a 10-3 record.

The Huskies are a team that plays incredibly well against good teams. They are 52-31 ATS in road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Louisville on the other hand has not performed well as a home favorite. The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +

The last time these teams met Wright State squeaked by with a single point win. The Golden Grizzlies will be playing with a lot more motivation in this matchup, and I like there chances to play another great game against the Raiders. Oakland is coming off a confidence boosting win over Youngstown State, and now they get the Raiders on a neutral court with a chance to keep their postseason dreams alive.

Statistically the Grizzlies matchup well with the Raiders. Wright State is not a strong rebounding team. They average a mere 29 rebounds per game, with only seven of those coming on the offensive glass. That ranks them 344th in the country in rebounds per game. The Raiders are also ranked 270th in points per game with 67.4, while the Grizzlies average 74.9 points per game and rank 78th in the country.

Oakland is 33-15 against the spread when playing on the road or a neutral court against a conference opponent. They are also 17-7 ATS in March games with Greg Kampe as the head coach. Kampe is the third longest-tenured Division 1 head coach in the country. That kind of experience makes Oakland a dangerous team in the postseason. In this matchup the Grizzlies are both more talented and experienced than Wright State.

3* No Doubt Rout on North Dakota -

Southern Utah has been unable to win a game since their first game of the season. They are one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I don't think the Thunderbirds can play a close game against North Dakota and its 85th ranked offense.

Southern Utah ranks 350th in the country in points per game with 58.6. North Dakota on the other hand is averaging 74.3 points per game, and should have no problem exceeding that number against this Thunderbirds defense that has surrendered 75 points per game. North Dakota is 1.5 games back on Weber State in the Big Sky standings, and they have a half game lead over third place Montana. There is still a lot to play for, and that means this will be another blowout loss for Southern Utah.

This matchup fits into a system to play against the Thunderbirds. You should fade teams like Southern Utah when they are revenging a same season loss, and they are off two straight losses against conference rivals. This system has a 172-103 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Atlantic Sun Game of the Year on USC Upstate +

In the Spartans two games against Mercer they lost 60-62 in overtime on the road, and embarrassed the Bears 80-61 at home. Upstate might be the most underrated team in the Atlantic Sun Conference, and their is simply no reason they should be such a large underdog in this matchup. Six of the Spartans seven conference losses came by six-points or less.

USC Upstate is averaging 73.7 points per game. The Spartans have already shown us they can score on Mercer since they put up 80 points the last time these teams met. Mercer on the other hand has put up just 60 and 62 points against the Spartans underrated defense.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road teams like USC Upstate when they are coming off two straight wins by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that scored 85 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies matchups where the road team has been undervalued, and it has resulted in a 55-26 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Old Dominion -

When these teams met back in January it was Old Dominion picking up a double-digit win on the road. In the final game of the regular season I see no reason why the Monarchs cannot pick up another impressive win over the Pirates, this time on their home court. The Pirates have not fared well on the road this season posting a 7-6 record.

These teams may have similar overall records, but the most telling number about the disparity in talent between them are their conference records. Old Dominion is 8-7 in conference games while the Pirates are 5-10. The Monarchs should have no problem improving on that number from their home court where they have allowed a mere 63.8 points per game this season.

East Carolina is 10-27 ATS when they are revenging a loss as a favorite. The Pirates are also 24-43 ATS when revenging any same season loss. Old Dominion is coming off very poor performance against Charlotte in its last outing, and that has created value on today's line. The Monarchs should dominate this game from start to finish.

4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Air Force +

The Lobos are playing in the perfect situation to look past Air Force as they prepare to take on the Mountain West co-leader in their regular season finale. Air Force is coming into this matchup under the radar with an 11-16 record, and they are in a good spot to play a great game against the unsuspecting Lobos. New Mexico will be on the road against San Diego State to determine the regular season champion of the Mountain West assuming both teams get past tonight's opponent with a win, and with such a big game on deck I think they come up short of covering the spread against the Falcons tonight.

The Falcons are unlikely to pull off an upset, but they are definitely capable of keeping this game within the 18 points they are being spotted. Only three of Air Force's 11 conference losses have come by a margin large enough to cover this line. The Falcons were on the road against San Diego State just a few weeks ago and manged to stick to within a single digit margin, and I expect them to deliver a similar result tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Air Force. You should play on road underdogs like the Falcons when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, and they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has resulted in a 38-13 (75%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas Tech +

The Kansas Jayhawks do not have a lot to play for tonight. They are already the regular season conference champions, and with a lack of motivation I think they will have a lot of trouble covering a double-digit spread against this hungry Red Raiders team. Texas Tech's season has been a disaster, but they have played some great basketball down the stretch. Four of their last five games have been decided by 10 points or less, which includes matchups against a ranked Iowa State team, and a game against the Jayhawks.

Kansas will rest Joel Embiid for this game in preparation for the postseason. When these teams met just over two weeks ago Embiid accounted for 18 of the Jayhawks 64 points. Kansas ended up winning that game by a single point. The lack of motivation showed on the road against Oklahoma State in the Jayhawks' last outing, and I think we can expect a similar performance tonight against Texas Tech.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Red Raiders. You should play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Texas Tech when they are revenging a loss of three points or less and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue the underdog and it has resulted in a 41-13 (76%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Big Sky Game of the Month on Northern Colorado +

North Dakota is clearly outmatched against Northern Colorado today. The Bears should have no problem putting up big numbers against North Dakota's soft defense. The Bears come into this matchup averaging 74.1 points per game, making 48.7 percent of their attempts from the field and 38.7 percent of their attempts from beyond the three point line. North Dakota has surrendered 73.3 points per game this season, allowing just over 48 percent shooting from the field.

These teams met earlier this season and the Bears picked up an 18 point win. North Dakota has won three straight games coming into this matchup, but only one of those teams has a winning record. North Dakota will be at a severe disadvantage on the boards in this matchup. They rank 321st in the nation with just 31.1 rebounds per game.

Northern Colorado is 6-0 ATS against terrible defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 48 percent or worse. The Bears are coming off a tough home loss, but in the past those types of games seem to serve as motivation. They are 13-4 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival. The Bears are the better team and it will show today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Jacksonville +

These teams met last Saturday and the Jacksonville Dolphins were able to stick to within 14 points on the road. There is a lot of value getting the Dolphins as a 14.5 point underdog in this rematch. Jacksonville knows what adjustments need to be made to play a better game against Mercer this time around.

The Dolphins suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in the previous matchup with the Bears making just 40 percent of their attempts. Jacksonville averages 74.7 points per game this season, and they have made an average of almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. With an average shooting performance tonight Jacksonville will easily keep this game within a single-digit margin.

Jacksonville may have lost their last regular season game to Mercer, but the Dolphins still had a very strong finish to the season. They managed to win three of their final four games. Over their final five games the Dolphins boosted their scoring average to 75.8 points per game, while Mercer finished the season well below its scoring average at 73.6 points per game. The value is on Jacksonville covering the spread in today's rematch.

4* Big Sky Game of the Week on Montana State +

The value in this matchup is on the road team when in-state rivals Montana State and Montana face off tonight. The last time these teams met the game was decided by a mere four points, and the change in venue is not going to be enough to give the Grizzlies a double-digit advantage. Both of these teams have similar overall and conference records, and with this being a rivalry game it is one that could easily be won outright by the Bobcats.

Montana has not fared well from the favorite position this season. They are 3-10 against the spread when playing as a favorite. The Grizzlies are also 1-8 against the spread in home games after a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. The Bobcats should have no problem keeping this game close against their in-state rival today. In the first meeting of the season they suffered from a below average shooting performance and still managed to stick to within four points. I don't credit their poor shooting in that game to good defensive play by the Grizzlies since Montana has allowed opponents to average 70.3 points per game on almost 48 percent shooting from the field this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Montana State when they average 67-74 points per game, and they are facing an opponent allowing 67-74 points per game after 15 or more games, and they scored 30 points or less in the first half of their last two games. This system has a 79-37 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on South Alabama +

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In the first matchup South Alabama picked up an eight point win on their home court. This time the venue to will change and the Ragin' Cajuns will play host, but home court advantage is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for Louisiana-Lafayette to cover such a large spread.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a much better record than the Jaguars, but with the way these teams matchup the value is with South Alabama. Lafayette is a team that likes to run an up-tempo offense to tire their opponent, but South Alabama is too good defensively for that style of play to work. The Jaguars have held opponents to 69.8 points per game this season, and that includes holding the Cajuns to 73 points earlier this season. Lafayette typically averages over 81 points per game. The Cajun's defense has been horrible allowing just shy of 75 points per game. They surrendered a whopping 81 points to the Jaguars last time these teams met.

The Jaguars have dominated the head-to-head history with Lafayette. Over the last three seasons, South Alabama is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread when facing the Cajuns. In all games played at Louisiana-Lafayette since 1997, the Jaguars are 8-5 against the spread. The Cajuns are 3-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games. They are coming off a tough road loss to Georgia State in their last outing, and I expect that loss to have a lingering negative effect.

4* No Brainer on Long Beach State -

The oddsmakers have continuously undervalued the 49ers when playing on the road this season. Long Beach State has a 10-4 ATS record in road games this year, and they should improve on that number today against CS-Fullerton. The 49ers should also be the more motivated team in this game. A win over Fullerton will keep their chances alive to finish the regular season in first place in the Big West Conference.

The 49ers have a very underrated defense. Against conference opponents they have surrendered a mere 64 points per game. The Titans on the other hand are surrendering 73.1 points per game against Big West opponents. It is a similar story on the offensive end of the court too. Long Beach State improves to 71.2 points per game against the conference while Fullerton regresses to 69.2 points per game. The Titans have benefited from a soft schedule this year, but their performance in the Big West is a good indication of how overrated they really are.

You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Long Beach State when they have a +/- 3.5 point per game differential and are playing against a team with a -3.5 to -8.5 point per game differential after 15 or more games, and they are coming off a close win by three points or less. This system has resulted in a 57-25 (70%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Northern Arizona +

Weber State is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers in this Big Sky showdown with Northern Arizona tonight. The Lumberjacks managed to keep this game to within a single-digit margin in the first meeting of the season between these teams. The change in venue to Weber State's home court is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Wildcats to cover the spread.

The Lumberjacks have a very underrated defense this year. Their opponents have an offensive scoring average of almost 71 points per game and the Lumberjacks are allowing an even 70 points per game. Against conference opponents that number tightens up to 68.8 points per game allowed. I don't think Weber State is good enough offensively to score enough points on Northern Arizona's defense to cover a double-digit line today, and that makes the Lumberjacks a strong value play.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more like Northern Arizona when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent and playing their second road game in the last three days. This system has a 123-78 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Horizon League Game of the Week on Oakland +

The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are a much better team than their record indicates. The non-conference portion of the schedule was tough this season as the Grizzlies opened by playing three of their first four games on the road and against ranked teams. The Grizzlies have been playing much better against Horizon League opponents posting a matching record with Youngstown State of 6-9.

Home court advantage will not be enough for Youngstown to pull off a six point win against this underrated Oakland team. The Penguins are surrendering an average of 72.9 points per game this season against opponents with an offensive scoring average of only 69.7 points per game. They are up against a Grizzlies team that is averaging 73.8 points per game on the year. Oakland already has one win over Youngstown State this season, and I think they will have a good chance to pull off the sweep over the Penguins today.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Oakland after going over the total by 18 or more points in their last three games when they have won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies road teams that are performing well offensively and are being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 210-124 (63%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Davidson -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Davidson is a much better team than Elon, and it will show on the court today. The Wildcats are 14-1 against conference opponents this season, and 10-5 against the spread in those games. Elon on the other hand has a decent straight up record of 11-4 against the Southern Conference, but they are 7-8 against the spread in those games.

The last time these teams met the game went to overtime and was played at Davidson. The Phoenix are the only team to hand the Wildcats a conference loss this season, so Davidson should be playing with plenty of motivation for revenge today. In that matchup Davidson shot well below their typical 47.5 percent from the field, while Elon shot over 50 percent from the field when they normally average closer to 46 percent shooting. That statistical anomaly is unlikely to repeat itself in this second meeting of the season.

You should play on road favorites like Davidson when they are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, when their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite in their previous game. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread. It is a good way to identify matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team.

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tennessee State +

These teams may have vastly different records, but the Tigers have been playing just as well as the Colonels lately. Tennessee State has won its last two meetings, including a road win over Morehead State in their last outing. It is also worth nothing that the Tigers were listed as a double-digit underdog in that game. The Tigers have been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Colonels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite.

The biggest weakness for Eastern Kentucky this year has been a defense that is allowing a lot of uncontested shots. That has resulted in opponents making 48.4 percent of their attempts. The Colonels are allowing 70.1 points per game, and it will be extremely difficult to win by a double-digit margin with the defense giving up as many points as they have. Tennessee State has proved to be a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-4 ATS in road games, while Eastern Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Eastern Kentucky. You should fade teams like the Colonels when they are a home favorite of 10 points or more and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 20 percent of their games or less. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has led to a 279-182 (61%) record against the spread.

3* Main Event on California +

This is a revenge game for the Golden Bears, and I like their chances to get that revenge after giving one away on their home court earlier this season. The last time these teams met the game went to overtime. The Cal players struggled to find the basket and were forced to play soft defense because of foul trouble. It took a near 48 percent shooting effort on three-point attempts for the Sun Devils to get to overtime and eventually win that game.

Cal has several statistical advantages in this game. They have been the better ball control team this season with a mere 10 turnovers per game, to 12 turnovers per game from the Sun Devils. Cal is also the better rebounding team posting a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Sun Devils come into this matchup with a -2 figure in rebounding margin. The Sun Devils really struggle on the offensive glass, pulling in a mere seven offensive rebounds per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing road teams. You should play on road teams like Cal in a game involving two average defenses that are allowing 67-74 points per game when they are coming off a loss by 15 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 222-141 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are the better team, and the fact that they are getting so many points is a good indication that the oddsmakers have overvalued Utah's home court advantage. Colorado comes into this matchup with a 20-8 overall record and a 9-6 record against Pac-12 opponents. Meanwhile, Utah is 18-9 overall and has a losing record of 7-8 against the Pac-12.

Utah played a very soft non-conference schedule and it featured only one game being played on the road. That soft schedule has inflated Utah's record to make the team look better than they actually are when playing at home. When you separate the non-conference portion of the schedule from the Utes games against Pac-12 teams you can see just how mediocre Utah has been this year. Utah's scoring average drops from 78.4 points per game down to 71.2 points per game, and their defensive scoring increases from 64.3 points allowed to 67.9 points allowed against the Pac-12.

The Utes are not a very physical team, and that bodes well for the Buffaloes in this matchup. Colorado is 31-15 ATS against teams that have been called for three or more fouls per game less than their opponents after 15 or more games on the season. The Buffaloes are also 25-13 ATS when coming off a game where they failed to coverage the spread. Since Colorado is on the road we will take the points, but they will have a good chance to win this game straight up today.

4* Vegas Insider on Cornell +

Harvard is not the kind of team that is going to win in a 20+ point blowout very often. They are a smart team that likes to slow down on offense and setup plays. The fact that they are not a fast paced team is going to make it extremely difficult to have enough possessions to outscore Cornell by 25 or more points.

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In that first meeting the Harvard Crimson managed to shoot 60 percent from the field. That is a feat that is extremely unlikely to take place again since the Big Red have allowed 60 percent shooting or more just one other time this season, and that other game was decided by a mere seven points.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Crimson. You should fade teams like Harvard when they are coming off three or more consecutive road wins, and they are a top level team that has won 80 percent or more of its games on the season. This system identifies teams that are playing in a letdown situation. It has resulted in a 26-9 (74%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cal Poly-SLO -

It is a Big West showdown when the Cal Poly Mustangs take on the UC Davis Aggies. The last time these teams met the Aggies picked up a four point win, but I think their fortunes will change in the second meeting of the season. In that first game UC Davis benefited from an absurdly good night of shooting from beyond the three point line, and that statistical anomaly is not likely to take place again.

Cal Poly is a much better team defensively than the Aggies. The Mustangs have held opponents to a mere 64 points per game this season. Even with UC Davis shooting 10 percent better on three point attempts and making almost 50 percent of their shot attempts from the field, the Aggies were still held to just 62 points in that first meeting of the season. The Mustangs were also without one of their best players in that game with Kyle Odister out of action. Odister is expected to be in the lineup tonight.

UC Davis is not a strong rebounding team, and I think that will be a big issue against the Poly's top notch defense. They cannot count on an absurdly great shooting performance in this matchup. UC Davis is 7-20 ATS in home games when coming off a performance with five or less offensive rebounds, and they are 12-31 at home when failing to cover the spread in their previous home game.

4* Heavy Hitter on UAB -

We are getting a lot of value on the Blazers in this matchup thanks to a somewhat sluggish performance lately. UAB has lost four of its last seven games, but more importantly they have shown signs of turning a corner by winning three of their last four. Now they have the luxury of facing the worst team in the conference, and we get the benefit of laying a single-digit number in a game that should end in a blowout.

Statistically this is a very lopsided matchup. Rice has a mere 2-11 record against conference opponents this season. They are averaging 63.2 points per game, and face a UAB team that has gone for 74.9 points per game this year. The Owls' offensive woes really stand out when you look at their performance against conference opponents. Rice is averaging just 60.1 points per game against the conference, and over their last five games that number has dipped all the way down to 56.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Owls. You should play against home underdogs like Rice when they are coming off a road loss, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a close road win decided by three points or less. This system identifies road teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 110-57 (66%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Murray State -

Murray State is without a doubt the best team in the Ohio Valley, and they are on fire coming into tonight's matchup against Tennessee-Martin. The Racers have won seven of their last eight games, with the only loss during that stretch coming by a mere three points on the road against first in the East - Belmont. Tennessee-Martin is currently in last place in the West division of the conference.

The biggest problem for the Skyhawks this season has been a complete lack of defense. They are allowing 81.1 points per game overall, and they have not received much of a home court advantage by still allowing 79.5 points per game. The Skyhawks are -6 in rebounding margin at home and will be severely outmatched on the boards against the Racers tonight. The last time these teams met Murray State picked up a 14-point win and a change in venue will not be enough to cut that margin in half.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Racers. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Murray State when they are coming off three straight wins over conference rivals, and they are a good team winning 60 to 80 percent of their games and are playing a bad team winning 20 to 40 percent of their games. This system is 61-32 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Week on Duquesne +

This is way too many points for an underrated team like Duquesne to be receiving. The Dukes are averaging 73.5 points per game this season, which is more than the Billikens have averaged on their home court. St Louis has struggled to meet the oddsmakers absurdly high expectations recently, and I expect that to be the case again today. The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

St Louis will have an edge defensively, but I don't think it is enough to cover such a large spread. Six of the Billikens last eight games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and the competition does not get any easier against the Dukes tonight. Duquesne has a 7-2 ATS record when playing on the road, and they are 8-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play against home favorites of 10 points or more after 10 or more consecutive wins. The system has a 170-123 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons. You should also play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Duquesne when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 75 or more points and are coming off two covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 49-17 (71%) against the spread.

4* Vegas Insider on Chattanooga +

Western Carolina has benefit from a fairly soft schedule this season, and I think they are clearly outmatched against Chattanooga tonight. The Catamounts are 8-30 ATS when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of its games after 15 or more games in the season. They are also 33-58 ATS when playing against any team with a winning record after 15 or more games.

The Catamounts have been successful at home because of their ability to score a lot of points. Their defense is not good, but they average 79.5 points per game. They will not have the luxury of simply forcing the Mocs into a shootout in this game because Chattanooga is every bit as good on offense as the Catamounts. The Mocs are averaging just shy of 77 points per game this season.

These teams are very even statistically, which is a good indication that this will be a very close game. In fact, it is a matchup that could easily be won by either team. Both teams average similar numbers in rebounding, turnovers and shooting percentage, with a slight edge actually going to the Mocs who are making almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. I expect this game to be very close, with Chattanooga having a good opportunity to win straight up in the end.

5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte +

The wrong team is favored in this Conference USA showdown. The Charlotte 49ers are a much better team than their 14-12 record indicates, and I think we are getting a lot of value on today's line because of their recent slump. The East Carolina Pirates are the perfect opponent to end that recent slide.

The Pirates are a not a team that gains a lot of benefit when playing at home. In fact, they have a 3-6 record against the spread in those games. They are not getting a big boost on the offensive end of the court, averaging 1.5 points per game more at home than they do overall. The Pirates are getting way too much credit because of their recent performances against Louisiana Tech and Rice. Tech was without their best player, and Rice is the worst team in the conference, so those wins should not buy a lot of credibility.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 49ers. You should play on road underdogs like Charlotte when they have failed to cover the spread in five or more of their last seven games, and they are facing an opponent that has covered the spread in four of their last five games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a tendency to overcompensate on the lines. It has resulted in a 164-95 (63%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Stanford +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup when the red hot Stanford Cardinal take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Stanford has won five of its last six games and covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games. The Sun Devils on the other hand come into this matchup having lost two in a row, and they they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

These teams have put up comparable numbers in points scored and points allowed, and they have very comparable records. However, Stanford is still the better team in this matchup. The Cardinal have a 3-1 record against ranked opponents this season, and they have proved to be the better rebounding team and ball control team. Stanford has allowed opponents a mere eight offensive rebounds per game, and they are committing just 11 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have allowed opponents double-digits in offensive rebounds and average 12 turnovers per game.

Stanford is 8-1 ATS against teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season. They are also 8-2 ATS against teams committing less than 14 turnovers per game. Arizona State has struggled against good three point shooting teams. Stanford is knocking down just over 38 percent of their three point attempts, and the Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS against teams making over 37 percent of their three point attempts after 15 or more games in the season.

4* No Brainer on California +

The Golden Bears picked up a two point win the last time they faced Arizona, and a change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by the amount of points it will take for Arizona to cover the spread. The oddsmakers have been giving the Wildcats far too much credit recently. Arizona has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine games, and the Wildcats have two straight up losses during that stretch.

The Golden Bears matchup well with Arizona, and that makes this double-digit line far too many points. Cal is a great rebounding team putting up comparable numbers to the Wildcats. The Golden Bears also have a slight advantage in turnovers, committing 10 per game while the Wildcats commit 11 turnovers per game. The Golden Bears have shown several times throughout the year that they are an underrated team defensively. They held the Wildcats to a mere 58 points in the first meeting of the season.

This matchup fits into a system to fade the Wildcats. You should play against home teams like Arizona when they make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts and they are +6 or more in rebounding margin, when they are facing a team allowing 32 to 36.5 percent on three point attempts and are +3 to +6 in rebounding margin. This system identifies matchups where the home team is being overvalued, and it has resulted in an 83-40 (68%) record against the spread.

5* Mountain West Game of the Month on San Jose State +

San Diego State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their win over Kansas in the first half of the season has earned them far more credit than they are worthy of. The Aztecs are lucky to have a three loss season. They came dangerously close to losing against Utah State in January, and they have recently played several games that were much closer than the final score would indicate.

San Jose State is typically a very good ball control team. They average just 13 turnovers per game on the season. In the first meeting of the season between these teams they had an uncharacteristically poor night of turnovers. While a small portion of that can be credited to San Diego State's defense, I think the majority of it was an anomaly. San Diego State typically only forces an average of 14 turnovers per game, and the Spartans posted 18 turnovers in that matchup. With less turnovers in this second meeting of the season San Jose State should easily be able to decrease their margin of loss to a number under 20 points.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road underdogs of 20 points or more like San Jose State when they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more and have a losing record on the season. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers because of their record, and it has resulted in a 54-22 (71%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Utah State +

New Mexico is playing in a letdown spot today coming off a win over No. 6 ranked San Diego State in their last outing. They also have a tough road game on deck, so the Lobos are playing the perfect situation to look past the Utah state Aggies tonight. For the Aggies this will be the last ranked opponent on the schedule this year, so they should be playing with plenty of motivation.

The Lobos have a single digit margin of victory against conference opponents this season, and I don't think they will be able to repeat the performance from the last time these teams met. Utah State is a very good rebounding team, and they had a poor showing on the boards in that game. With a closer rebounding margin in this matchup the Lobos will not get the extra shot attempts they had in that first meeting of the season, and that will lead to a the game being decided by a single digit margin.

This matchup fits into a system to play against New Mexico. You should fade teams like the Lobos when they are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent, and they have won over 80% of their games on the season and are facing a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games. This system is 106-70 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia Tech +

While nobody will confuse Virginia Tech for a great team, they are certainly good enough to keep this game within 20 points. The Hokies have played some great basketball recently. They took Pittsburgh to double overtime on the road, beat Miami, stuck to within four points of No. 14 ranked Virginia and lost by just seven points to NC State. Virginia Tech has lost by 21 points or more only twice this season, and those matchups did not come in any of their four games played against ranked opponents.

The Blue Devils have played some great basketball this year, but I don't think they have played well enough to justify a 20+ point line. They are averaging 75.6 points per game against conference opponents, while allowing 64.9 points in those games. Their average margin of victory is nowhere near enough to cover such a large spread. The Blue Devils are also playing in a letdown spot after beating No. 1 Syracuse in their last outing.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Virginia Tech. You should play against favorites of 20 points or more like Duke when they have covered the spread in six of their last eight games and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against a team with a losing record. This system is 32-9 (78%) against the spread.

4* Heavy Hitter on Samford -

The Citadel Bulldogs are the worst team in the Southern Conference. They have yet to win a game against a conference opponent, with the average loss in those games coming by 12 points. Defensively Citadel has been horrible this season. They are surrendering 75 points per game so the Samford Bulldogs should have no problem getting points on the board.

Samford is a much better shooting team than the Citadel. The Samford Bulldogs are making 47.4 percent of their shot attempts to 42.1 percent from the Citadel Bulldogs. Samford is 11-3 ATS when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games while the Citadel is 20-37 ATS in home games when playing a team with a losing record.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Samford. You should play against home teams like the Citadel when they make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts, but allow opponents to make over 36.5 percent of their three point attempts in a game involving two teams that are -3 to -6 in rebounding margin after 15 or more games. This system has a 39-13 (75%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Washington State +

The Ducks got off to a fast start during non-conference play this season, but they have really struggled against Pac-12 opponents. I think they are still one of the most overrated teams in the conference, and that is backed up by the fact that they have a 4-9 ATS record in conference games. Washington State may not have a great record, but they are playing better recently. They have been within 14 points or less in five of their last six games, which includes several road games against some very good Pac-12 teams.

This line is also being inflated higher than it should be due to the result of the first meeting of the season between these teams. I think that game can be chalked up as an anomaly because there is no way the Cougars will shoot 25 percent from the field again. I don't credit Washington State's poor shooting in that game to solid defensive play from the Ducks either. Oregon has actually proved to be soft defensively this season surrendering 75.1 points per game and allowing opponents to make over 44 percent of their shot attempts.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Washington State when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and they are coming off two consecutive losses of 10 points or more to conference opponents. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the road team, and it has resulted in a 261-176 (60%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Rider -

Rider should have no problem dominating this game from start to finish. Siena has been horrible on the road this season posting a 3-12 record. They are averaging a mere 67.8 points while allowing 75.4 points in road games. I expect them to give up a big number against Rider today since the Broncs are a strong team offensively averaging 75.3 points per game at home.

The Broncs will have a big advantage in turnover margin today. Siena has been a horrible ball control team this season. They are committing 15 turnovers per game, while forcing just 11 turnovers from opponents when playing on the road. Rider on the other hand has averaged 13 turnover per game, but when playing at home they are forcing an average of 15 turnovers from their opponents.

Rider is a very good three point shooting team. They are making over 40 percent of their attempts this season. Siena has struggled against good three point shooting teams, posting a 3-11 ATS record against teams making over 37 percent of their attempts. Siena is also 4-13 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 turnovers per game or less after 15 or more games on the season.

4* Ivy league Game of the Week on Yale +

Yale plus the points is an easy call in this matchup. The Bulldogs have been on fire recently, winning nine of their last 10 games and posting a 7-2 ATS record during that stretch. Columbia on the other hand has been struggling, losing four of their last seven games both straight up and against the spread. Yale is second in the Ivy League standings with an 8-1 record. Harvard currently holds first place with a 9-1 conference record, but the Bulldogs won at Harvard earlier this month.

Yale is a very good rebounding team. They average 10 offensive rebounds per game, and that should give them a big advantage over the Lions. Columbia is not a strong rebounding team so I expect to see the Bulldogs getting a lot of second chance shot attempts. The Bulldogs are also a very good foul drawing team, forcing opponents to commit an average of 22 personal fouls per game. Those extra attempts from the free throw line give the Bulldogs a huge advantage late in the game.

Columbia's poor pressure defense will cost them today. Yale is 22-8 ATS in road games against teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games. They are also 9-1 ATS against teams winning 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. The Bulldogs have also dominated the recent head-to-head history between these teams. Over the last three seasons Yale is both 4-1 straight up and against the spread when facing the Lions. These teams met last month and the Bulldogs picked up a 10 point win. A change in venue will not be enough to swing things in the Lions favor today.

4* Vegas Insider on on BYU -

The Cougars will have several key statistical advantages in this matchup. First of all, they rank third in the country averaging 85.1 points per game. The Pilots do not have enough scoring options to keep pace with BYU. The Cougars are also the sixth ranked team in the country in rebounds per game with 41.4.

The advantages don't end in scoring and on the boards. BYU has also proved the be the better ball control team this season. They are averaging a mere 11 turnovers per game, and are poised to improve on that number against the soft Portland defense. The Pilots only statistical advantage in this matchup is their free throw shooting ability, but that won't do them a lot of good against this Cougars team that does a great job of staying out of foul trouble when playing at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on an explosive offensive team like BYU when they are averaging over 76 points per game and playing a team that averages 74 to 76 points per game, after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. This system is 221-143 (61%) against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Rice +

While overall records may favor East Carolina, these teams are actually much closer in talent level than this line indicates. When you look at how they have performed against common opponents it is easy to see that Rice is every bit as good as East Carolina. The Owls are 2-10 against C-USA opponents, while the Pirates are 3-9 against C-USA teams. Both teams have averaged around 60 points per game against their common opponents while surrendering close to 70 points per game.

Rice will have an advantage on the boards in this matchup. They have limited opponents to just nine offensive rebounds per game this season to 11 allowed by the Pirates. These teams also have comparable styles of play, with both relying heavily on their three-point shooting ability. If Rice gets hot from three-point land, the Owls will not only have a chance to cover the spread, but also win this game straight up. The Owls average 26 three point attempts per game on the road and are making 34 percent of those attempts which is right in line with the Pirates shooting percentages on an average of 24 three-point attempts.

The Owls are 19-7 ATS against teams who make eight or more three-point shots per game after 15 or more games. East Carolina is 39-65 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game after 15 or more games and they are 40-68 ATS after four straight games of forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. With the way these teams matchup I expect this to be a very close game.

5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on La Salle +

The Explorers have played a tough stretch of games recently, and I think that has them coming into this matchup against Richmond a little underrated. La Salle is a much better team than their record indicates, and I like them to play a great game against the Spiders. Richmond has been extremely inconsistent this season and they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers when playing at home leading to a losing record against the spread.

Statistically this matchup should be very close. The Explorers are averaging 68.5 points per game while the Spiders are averaging 69.4 points per game. Defensively La Salle has played extremely well on the road, allowing a mere 66.8 points per game. Richmond is allowing 66 points per game overall this season. This game could go either way, but it will almost certainly be close and that means the value is with La Salle.

Richmond is a team that relies heavily on their ability to win the turnover margin. They are 11-22 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game. The Spiders are not a good ball movement team, and I think that plays into La Salle's favor. The Explorers are 23-9 ATS against poor passing teams that are averaging less than 12 assists per game after 15 or more games.

4* No Brainer on Tulsa -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. These teams may have similar overall records, but Tulsa is clearly the better team. The Golden Hurricane have a 9-3 record against conference opponents this season, while the Golden Panthers come into this matchup with a 5-7 record against C-USA opponents. Tulsa is 10-2 against the spread in those games.

The Golden Hurricane's biggest advantage in this matchup is their defense. Over their last five games they have held opponents to a mere 53.8 points per game. Against all conference opponents they are surrendering 61.6 points per game. That gives Tulsa a big advantage over this Florida International team that is allowing over 70 points per game this season. The Golden Panthers have not been a high scoring team either, averaging a mere 65.9 points per game at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Hurricane. You should play on road favorites that are coming off three straight wins over conference opponents, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 84-31 (67%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Central Florida +

Central Florida is the better team, and I like their chances to pull off the upset in Houston today. We will take the points, but the Cougars are clearly outmatched in this game. They have lost seven of their last eight games and are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding anytime soon.

Central Florida is on a bit of a losing streak too, but six of their last seven losses have come against ranked opponents. They have played an incredibly difficult schedule recently, and that should make the Cougars look like more like a practice squad today. Over their last five games the Cougars have surrendered 77 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Central Florida. You should play on a road team like the Knights in a matchup involving two teams allowing 67 to 74 points per game, when they are coming off a loss by 15 points or more. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 218-135 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back against the spread when they are playing on the road. It seems the oddsmakers have once again undervalued the 49ers in tonight's matchup with Cal-Davis. The Aggies are suffering through a rough season, and with only six games left it looks like they are ready to throw in the towel early.

The 49ers may not have a great overall record, but that is because of an extremely difficult non-conference schedule. In conference play Long Beach State has posted a 7-4 record, and they currently sit in third place in the Big West standings. Long Beach State still has a lot to play for, and I think they will come out and play a complete game against the Aggies, taking an early lead and never looking back.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Cal-Davis. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Aggies when they are trying to revenge a same season loss, and they are coming off two straight losses against conference opponents. This system has a 160-92 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout on Southern Utah +

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds have a good chance to pick up their first Big Sky win of the season tonight. They played Portland State last month in Portland and managed to stick to within three points. This time the venue changes and with home court advantage I like Southern Utah to play a great game.

These teams seem to be heading in opposite directions right now. Portland State is getting worse, riding a four game losing streak coming into this matchup. The Thunderbirds are not winning games, but they are certainly playing better basketball now than they did earlier this season. Over their last five games the Thunderbirds have surrendered a mere 67.2 points per game. Portland State is allowing 73.1 points per game to conference opponents and 75.1 points per game on the road, and I think the Vikings will struggle against the Thunderbirds tonight.

You should play against favorites like Portland State when they are coming off an upset loss to a conference opponent and they have won 40 to 49% of their games on the season, and they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 63-29 (69%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Based on the way this game ended the last time these teams met, we are getting a lot of value on the Thunderbirds tonight.

3* No Doubt Rout on Jacksonville State +

This is a lot of points for Jacksonville State to be receiving in a game that features two evenly matched teams. The Gamecocks and Redhawks have similar records against Ohio Valley opponents, and statistically it is the Gamecocks that have the advantage. SE Missouri State has not received a lot of benefit at home this year, posting a 6-4 overall record, but a 0-7 record against the spread in those games.

The Gamecocks defense will be their biggest advantage in this matchup. They have held opponents to 69.4 points per game this season while the Redhawks are surrendering 78.1 points per game. What makes the Redhawks defense so bad is the fact that their opponents are only averaging 70.3 points per game. When playing at home their defensive scoring average increases to 79 points per game.

Jacksonville State has been a great team to back against the spread when facing a good shooting team. Their underrated defense gives them a lot of value in these situations. They have a 14-1 ATS record against teams making 48 percent or more of their shot attempts after 15 or more games. When the Redhawks defense is not forcing turnovers they have been a good team to fade. SE Missouri State is 9-18 ATS after four straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Troy +

The oddsmakers are not giving Troy enough credit in this matchup against Louisiana-Lafayette. The Trojans may not have a great record against Sun Belt opponents, but that is not because they are not playing in some very close games. Almost two-thirds of Troy's losses this season have come by 10 points or less, and since they are playing for revenge in this game I expect the Trojans to play a close one against the Ragin' Cajuns.

Troy is the better defensive team in this matchup. The Trojans have held opponents to 70.3 points per game this season, which may not seem great at first glance, but that number is below their opponents' offensive scoring average. The Rajin' Cajuns on the other hand have surrendered 74.9 points per game, which is three points per game more than their opponents' offensive scoring average. In the first matchup of the season UL-Lafayette benefited from one of their best shooting performances of the year. It is unlikely they will be able to repeat that feat again today which adds value to on the Trojans.

You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like the Rajin' Cajuns when they are averaging 76 points per game or more and scoring 80 or more points in two straight games, and they are facing a team allowing 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games. This system is 70-37 (65%) against the spread. UL-Lafayette put up 93 points against Little Rock and 85 against Arkansas State in its last two games, and I think that has them coming into this matchup a little overrated.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Arizona -

The Wildcats are an easy call in this matchup against Utah. The Utes soft schedule at home has earned them a reputation they do not deserve. Utah is 16-1 in those games, but they have only hosted one top ranked team this season, and it was a two point loss to Oregon. We now know the Ducks are nowhere near as good as their ranking indicated, but we also know Arizona is every bit as good as its No. 4 in the country ranking.

The Wildcats have the fourth ranked scoring defense in the country. They are surrendering a mere 57.5 points per game this season. That is an impressive feat when you look at some of the high scoring teams they have faced this season. The Wildcats held Duke to a mere 66 points in non-conference play, and they held the nation's No. 11 ranked team in points per game (83.1), UCLA, to 75 points on the Bruin's home court. The last time they played Utah the Wildcats allowed just 56 points.

While the Utes might look like the higher scoring team at first glance, when you dig a little deeper you will find the Wildcats also have an offensive advantage. Sure, Utah is scoring 78.7 points per game, but that has come against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 74.2 points per game. I give the nod to the Wildcats who are averaging 73.1 points against teams with a defensive scoring average of 68.7 points. It is the same story on the defensive end of the court where Arizona is actually allowing less points against higher scoring teams. The disparity in talent between these teams is much larger than the 4.5 point line indicates.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston College +

Syracuse is a team that looks like it is falling victim to the pressure that comes with being the No. 1 ranked team in the country with an undefeated record. The Orange have come close to blowing their perfect season in four of their last five games. Boston College may not have a great record, but they simply haven't lived up to their potential this season. They have the talent to keep up with the best teams in the country, and that is exactly what I expect to see them do against the Orange in this matchup.

This should be a low scoring game. Syracuse is not a team that scores a lot of points, averaging just 69.4 points per game at home this season. When these teams met last month the Eagles put up 59 points, losing by a mere 10 points. That game was much closer than the final score indicates because the Orange pulled away thanks to some late free throws. While it is likely Syracuse is going to pick up its second win over Boston College, it does not seem likely that it will come by 15 or more points. This line simply overvalues Syracuse, especially with the way the Orange have been playing recently.

You should play against home favorites like Syracuse when they are favored by 10 to 19.5 points and are coming off a home win over a conference opponent, and facing a team that is coming off an upset loss at home as a favorite. This system to fade the home team has resulted in a 106-62 (63%) record against the spread. It identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers.

4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Utah State +

I think we are getting a lot of value on the Aggies in this matchup. The last time these teams met Utah State took the Aztecs to overtime, losing by just five points. The change in venue will not be enough to swing the outcome of this game by a double-digit margin. San Diego State has been overrated for most of the season, and while they may have a 12-1 record as the home team, they have a losing record (4-6) against the spread in those games.

Utah State is a dominant rebounding team. They are +7 in rebounding margin this season, and typically do a great job of preventing their opponents from picking up offensive rebounds. In the first meeting of the season the Aggies uncharacteristically lost that battle, and it is unlikely that will take place again. The Aggies are also a very good ball control team averaging 11 turnovers per game, and suffered a lopsided defeat in turnover margin in that game. I think both of those areas will be a little more even in this matchup, which will make it extremely difficult for the Aztecs to cover a double-digit number.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like San Diego State when they are coming off a home win over a conference opponent, and facing a team that is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite like Utah State. This system identifies matchups where the home favorite is being overvalued. It has resulted in a 106-62 (63%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Red Raiders picked up a win against an Oklahoma State team that we now know is nowhere near as good as preseason predictions. They also picked up a win over a mediocre Oklahoma team, and played a close game against a very overrated Iowa State team. Their recent performance has earned them a little too much credit from the oddsmakers, and that has created a lot of value on Kansas in today's matchup.

The Jayhawks are clearly the best team in the Big 12, and there is a lot of disparity in talent between them and every other team in the conference. Kansas is averaging 80.1 points per game against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 68.9 points per game. On the defensive end of the court they have surrendered a mere 69.9 points per game against opponents with an offensive scoring average of 75.2 points per game. Texas Tech on the other hand is scoring below its opponents defensive scoring average, and while the defense has been solid, I don't think they will have an answer for all the scoring options on this Jayhawks roster.

The Jayhawks have been a great team to back when coming off a blowout win. They absolutely destroyed TCU in their last outing by picking up a 30 point win. Kansas is 12-4 ATS over the last two seasons following a win by 20 points or more. The Jayhawks are a great foul drawing team, getting to the free throw line for an average of 27 attempts per game. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in home games against teams attempting 25 or more free throws per game after 15 or more games.

4* Vegas Insider on Davidson -

The last time these teams met Davidson picked up a 19 point win. With Citadel coming into this matchup having lost 15 consecutive games, it is safe to say they have thrown in the towel on their season. Davidson still has a lot to play for as the Wildcats try to hold onto first place in the Southern Conference.

The Wildcats have a dominating statistical advantage in this matchup. They are averaging 78.9 points per game on the road, which is a full eight points over their opponents defensive scoring average. The Citadel has been horrible defensively, allowing 4.9 points per game more than than their opponents offensive scoring average. In the first meeting of the season between these teams, Citadel had an above average shooting performance and still lost in a blowout. Over their last five games the Bulldogs have shot 39.9 percent from the field, so I don't think they will be able to decrease that margin of loss in today's matchup.

Davidson has been a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-5 ATS in road games, which includes a 6-0 ATS record in road games against conference opponents. When the Bulldogs are unable to force turnovers they are a great team to fade. The Citadel is 8-22 ATS after three straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or less turnovers. Davidson has been a great ball control team all year, and in the first meeting of the season they had a mere nine turnovers.

4* MAAC Game of the Week on Marist +

These teams are headed in completely opposite directions. Marist has won four of its last five games, while Monmouth has dropped six consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in five of those six. The Hawks have also been horrible in MAAC play, posting a 4-11 record as they sit in ninth place in the conference standings.

Statistically the Red Foxes have several key advantages. First of all, they are a much better defensive team. Marist has surrendered 70.8 points per game to opponents with an offensive scoring average of 72.7 points per game. Monmouth on the other hand is allowing 73.7 points per game against opponents averaging 72.2 points per game. Marist also has a turnover advantage, committing just 13 total turnovers per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs when they are playing their third game in a week and have won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 286-189 (60%) against the spread. It is a good way to find teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, which appears to be the case with the Red Foxes today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Rice +

Since Raheem Appleby went out Louisiana Tech has not been winning its games in the same dominating fashion they did earlier in the season. The Bulldogs are 1-3 against the spread in the four games that Appleby has missed, so I think there is a lot of value on Rice as such a large underdog in today's matchup. The Owls have won two of their last three games against the spread.

Statistically the Bulldogs certainly have an advantage, but I don't think it is enough to justify a near 20 point line. The Owls defense has surrendered 70.3 points per game this season, which makes them an above average defense in comparison to Louisiana Tech's opponents who have a combined defensive scoring average of 73.5 points per game. The Bulldogs are an average defensive team, allowing just shy of 68 points per game. While they will likely win this game, I don't think they will be able to score enough points to cover this spread.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bulldogs. You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Louisiana Tech when they are coming off a game where both teams scored 75 points or more and they are playing only their second game in the last eight days. This system has a 150-96 (62%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout on Loyola Marymount +

Gonzaga is nowhere near as good as the team many thought they would be prior to the start of the season. While they have an impressive 22-4 record, they have not played a very difficult schedule this season. What's most alarming about the Bulldogs performance is the fact that they are not dominating weaker opponents like they should be. Gonzaga has won only five of their 13 conference games by a margin larger than 10 points.

The Lions are a much better team than their record indicates. They are averaging 74.3 points per game, and I expect them to put up a respectable number in this matchup against the Bulldogs. The last time these teams met the Lions scored 72 points. Gonzaga shot well above their typical shooting percentage in that game while the Lions shot slightly below average. I don't expect the disparity in shooting percentages to be as large in this second meeting of the season, so there is no reason to believe the Bulldogs will be able to increase their margin of victory by enough points to cover the spread regardless of the venue change.

This matchup fits into a system that identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overreacted based on recent performances. You should play on underdogs that have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games when they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system has a 49-20 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver +

The schedule has been anything but easy for the Pioneers this season, and while the records may not indicate it, I think they are the better team in this matchup with IPFW. Denver has won five of its last seven games, which includes two double-digit victories on the road. The Mastodons have lost two of their last three, with that lone win coming by a mere six points against the 9-15 South Dakota Coyotes.

Defenses generally travel well, and that has definitely been the case for Denver this season. They are allowing 63.2 points per game overall, but that number dips down to 62.5 points per game surrendered when playing on the road. The Mastodons defense has been soft, especially at home. They are allowing 72.2 points per game in home games, and their soft defense will prove costly in this matchup against the Pioneers.

The oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue road teams that are revenging a home loss and playing with one or less days of rest. In this situation the road team has a 361-250 (59%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. When these teams met last month the Pioneers were a 9.5 point favorite. They have since won five of their last seven games, so I think we are getting a lot of value as an underdog today.

4* Heavy Hitter on Miami Ohio +

Western Michigan is getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. When these teams met last month the game was decided by a single point, and I don't think a change in venue is going to be enough for the Broncos to cover this spread, especially against a RedHawks team that is out for revenge. The Broncos defense has surrendered more points at home than they have on the road this season while the schedule has been pretty soft. That is a good indication that home court advantage will not be a big factor.

The Redhawks come into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 69.7 points per game on the road. That is over a full point below their opponents scoring average on the season. Miami Ohio may not have a great record, but they play smart basketball which has led to a winning record against the spread. The team avoids turnovers, stays out of foul trouble, and they are knocking down over 76 percent of their free throw attempts this season. The RedHawks have a statistical advantage over the Broncos in all three of those categories.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Miami Ohio. You should play on road underdogs when they are revenging a loss against their opponent that came by three points or less and they are coming off a loss by 10 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in an 85-47 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Western Carolina +

The Western Carolina Catamounts are an easy call in this matchup with the Chattanooga Mocs. The Catamounts are coming into this game having won three of their last four games, while the Mocs have lost three of their last four games. The Mocs have not fared well against physical teams. They are 1-8 ATS versus opponents that are called for 21 or more fouls per game.

The biggest advantage the Catamounts have in this matchup is there underrated defense. Against conference opponents Western Carolina has surrendered a mere 68.1 points per game. On the offensive end of the court they have had no problem scoring points averaging 73.6 points per game. The Catamounts are also coming off back-to-back games scoring 80+ points, and they have the luxury of facing a soft Mocs defense that is allowing 75.8 points per game over their last five games.

Western Carolina is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record. The Catamounts have been playing some great basketball recently, but they have not been covering the spread. I think that caused an overreaction by the oddsmakers for today's matchup. Western Carolina is the better team and it will show today.

5* West Coast Conf. Game of the Month on Loyola-Marymount +

This is a lot of points for the Lions to receive in what is a very even matchup. The last time these teams met it was Loyola-Marymount that was the favorite. The Lions may have lost that game, but I think they were a little unlucky. Portland does not have a good defense. The Pilots have surrendered 73.6 points per game this season. In that first meeting the Lions had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night, making a mere 31.8 percent of their attempts. I don't credit that win to a big defensive performance, instead it should be considered an anomaly that is unlikely to take place again.

Loyola-Marymount should have no problem scoring points today. They are averaging 74.7 points per game on the season, making 44.5 percent of their shot attempts. The Lions are a decent rebounding team, and they have been a decent ball control team. If they continue to rebound well and avoid turnovers tonight, there is no reason the Lions cannot leave Portland with a win under their belts. Even with an average performance they should have no problem sticking to within seven points or less.

The oddsmakers have a history of overvaluing the Pilots in certain situations. For instance, Portland is 13-29 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. The Pilots are also 5-16 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a road underdog. Portland did not have a good road trip, losing two of those three games. The Pilots have now lost three of their last four games, and I like the Lions to come out and give them a scare tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on South Dakota +

IPFW is one of the most overrated teams in the Summit League. The Mastodons are nowhere near as good as their 18-8 record would indicate. They are coming off back-to-back losses in their last two games, and I think losing two on the road by double-digits will really knock the wind out of them coming into tonight's matchup with South Dakota.

The Coyotes have put up some decent numbers this season. They are averaging over 70 points per game while shooting 44.5 percent from the field. They are also a great free throw shooting team making 74.4 percent of their attempts. South Dakota has also been an excellent ball control team with 12 turnovers per game, and they avoid getting into foul trouble. The Coyotes record may not reflect their quality numbers, and neither does the line on today's game which makes South Dakota a strong value play.

South Dakota is 13-5 ATS against teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more points per game. They are also 14-4 ATS against teams averaging 14 or less turnovers after 15 or more games. They are off to a 6-2 ATS performance against conference opponents this year, which adds to their 17-8 ATS run over the last two seasons. In head-to-head matchups the Coyotes are 4-1 ATS versus IPFW over the last three seasons, including a 2-0 record when playing at Ft Wayne.

4* Vegas Insider on Boston College +

Boston College may not have a great overall record this season, but I still think they are the better team in this matchup with the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech has really struggled to get points on the board this season. They are averaging a mere 67.5 points per game which is below their opponents defensive scoring average. Boston College has played a tough schedule, and they have managed to play some very close games with good teams.

The Eagles have covered the spread in four of their last six games. They get to face a Georgia Tech team that is coming off a crushing loss to Virginia in their last outing. The Yellow Jackets were handed an embarrassing 19 point beat down on their home court, and I think that loss will do serious damage to their confidence level. Georgia Tech is also in a bad shooting slump. Over their last two games the Yellow Jackets have shot 34.8 percent and 36.7 percent, respectively.

This matchup fits into a profitable system to fade the Yellow Jackets. You should play against home teams when they are making 42.5 to 45 percent of their shot attempts, and are facing a defense that has allowed 45 to 47.5 shooting from its opponents, and they are an average rebounding team that is +/- 3 in rebounding margin against a team that is -3 to -6 in rebounding margin after 15 or more games. This system identifies home teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 38-12 (76%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Akron +

The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this game. Akron is on fire right now having won four of its last five games. They are 8-2 against conference opponents this season, holding those teams to a mere 63.2 points per game.

Western Michigan has struggled to live up to oddsmakers expectations recently. The Broncos have lost seven of their last nine games against the spread, and I look for them to lose today's game straight up too. Their defense is nowhere near as good as the Zips' defense, and when you adjust their offensive scoring averages for strength of schedule both of these teams come in averaging similar numbers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Zips. You should play on road teams with a line of three-points or less when they are coming off two consecutive wins by five points or less over a conference rival and they are playing in the month of February. This system has a 58-30 (66%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on George Mason +

The Minutemen have struggled to live up to the absurdly high expectations set by the oddsmakers. They have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games, and there is simply no reason UMass should be a double-digit favorite in this game. George Mason has a winning record against the spread when playing on the road, and while it may only be 6-5, this is the third largest point total received in 2014. George Mason covered the spread in its two prior games receiving double-digits.

The last time these teams met UMass squeaked by with a one point win. A change in venue is not enough to justify such a large number considering how well the Patriots matchup with the Minutemen. Both of these teams have similar figures in rebounding margin, turnovers and free throw shooting percentage. They have also put up similar defensive scoring stats this season. While UMass may have an offensive scoring advantage, the fact that George Mason put up 87 points in the first meeting of the season tells me that advantage is not enough to justify this many points.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing George Mason. You should play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like the Patriots when they are a good rebounding team giving up less than nine offensive rebounds per game on the season in a February game. This system has a 370-251 (60%) record against the spread. While the Patriots may not stick to within a single point again, I do think they will stick to within a single-digit margin.

5* Road Dog of the Month on James Madison +

There is a lot of value on James Madison as such a large underdog since they will have Andre Nation back in the lineup. Nation is the leading scorer for the Dukes, averaging 16.6 points per game. He was also the team leader in rebounds with 5.3 per game. With Nation on the court this team should play with a much higher intensity level, and I even think they will have a chance to pull off the upset in this game.

The Dukes have been a solid team defensively this season. They are holding opponents to a mere 67.8 points per game. Delaware on the other hand has surrendered an average of 76 points per game. The Blue Hens have yet to lose a Colonial Conference game, and now signs are pointing to the oddsmakers beginning to overvalue the team. Delaware has lost two of its last three games against the spread, and they have come close to being upset several times in recent weeks.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road teams that average 63 points per game or less when they are playing against a poor defensive team allowing 74-78 points per game, after playing a game where both teams scored 65 or less points. This system is 47-20 (70%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Notre Dame -

This matchup has a lot of blowout potential for Notre Dame. Clemson is a defense oriented team, but that defense has struggled on the road at times this season. The only thing consistent about the Tigers is an offense that has been consistently bad. Clemson comes into this matchup averaging a mere 60.4 points per game on the road, while Notre Dame has put up an impressive 76.1 points per game at home.

Clemson has lost three of its last four road games with a 21.6 point average margin of defeat in those games three games. The Tigers offense is really struggling right now. Over their last five games they are averaging a mere 49.2 points per game. Clemson is 0-7 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in five consecutive games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Irish. You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Notre Dame when they are making 45 to 47.5 percent of their shot attempts and are playing against a team allowing opponents to make 40 percent or less of their shot attempts, in a game with two good ball handling teams committing 14.5 turnovers per game or less after 15 or more games. This system has a 69-37 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. It identifies teams that are being undervalued because of their opponents defensive scoring numbers.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky +

I like the Hilltoppers to pull off the upset in this game, but we will still take the points. Western Kentucky is 8-2 in conference play, and they will have several key matchup advantages against Arkansas State. The Hilltoppers are riding a six game win streak, with three of those wins coming on the road. The last time these teams met Western Kentucky picked up a five point win. That scare ensures the Hilltoppers do not look past the Red Wolves today.

The biggest advantage Western Kentucky has in this matchup is its defense. The Hilltoppers opponents have an offensive scoring average of 71.9 points per game, yet Western Kentucky has allowed a mere 66.7 points per game overall and 65.9 points per game when playing on the road. They should have no problem putting up another big number on the scoreboard facing a Red Wolves defense that is surrendering 72.7 points per game. The Hilltoppers are also +5 in rebounding margin to -2 from Arkansas State.

Western Kentucky is 33-16 ATS in road games when playing against a team that has won 60 to 80 percent of its games after 15 or more games. The Red Wolves come into this matchup with a 10-24 ATS record against teams that are outrebounding opponents by four or more per game after 15 or more games. With the Red Wolves playing with eight days off I think they come out flat. I like the Hilltoppers to take an early lead and never look back.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +

The Golden Grizzlies may not have a great record this season, but they are certainly every bit as good as Valparaiso. Oakland has played an incredibly difficult schedule, and I think that has them underrated coming into the second game of the season against the Crusaders. When these teams met last month it was Oakland that walked away with a five point win. A change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for Valparaiso to cover this spread.

The Golden Grizzlies have faced four ranked opponents this season, including one of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten. Their schedule has been tough, which is why their 74.1 point per game scoring average means a lot more than the 75.3 points per game the Crusaders are averaging. The biggest advantage Oakland has in this game is the fact that they are such a good ball control team. The Golden Grizzlies average 11 turnovers per game to 15 turnovers per game from Valparaiso.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Crusaders. You should play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Valparaiso when they are coming off a home loss by three points or less, and they are trying to revenge a same season loss where their opponent scored 75 points or more. This system has a 31-9 (78%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Nevada +

It took a last second three-point shot for San Diego State to get past Boise State in the Aztec's last outing. I think San Diego State is showing signs of regression on defense. They gave up 51 percent shooting to the Broncos, and they have allowed over 50 percent shooting in two of their last three games.

Nevada has been a great team to back on the road this season. They have an 8-3 record against the spread in road games while San Diego State comes into this game with a 3-5 ATS record at home. The oddsmakers have once again overvalued the Aztecs, and I look for the Wolf Pack to give them a scare today. Nevada averages 76 points per game on the road against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 69.9 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade San Diego State. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when coming off 10 or more consecutive wins. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has a 164-115 (59%) record over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Long Beach St -

The Long Beach State 49ers are coming into this matchup having won four of their last five games. They have covered the spread in all five of those contests. In fact, the 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, with both of those losses coming by a mere half point.

UC-Riverside has lost eight of its last 12 games. They are not a high scoring team, and I don't see them keeping pace with Long Beach State in this game. The Highlanders are averaging a mere 68.1 points per game against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 72 points per game. Long Beach State is 6-2 ATS against conference opponents, and they have held those teams to a mere 63.5 points per game.

Long Beach State is 35-19 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. These two may have similar overall records, but the 49ers are clearly the better team. They played a very difficult non-conference schedule, but they have shown just how talented they are during conference play. The Highlanders have a 3-5 record against conference opponents, and they have hovered around .500 when playing at home this year. A quality team like Long Beach should have no problem picking up a big road win today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington State +

Utah is getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers today. While the Utes have played well at home this year, they will find it difficult to beat this underrated Washington State team by a double-digit margin. Washington is a solid defensive team allowing 65.3 points per game to opponents whose offensive scoring average is 72.5 points per game.

Utah is coming off a nine point win over Washington in their last outing. The Utes shot 60 percent from the field in that game, and I don't think they are capable of repeating that feat against this stingy Cougars defense. With the way these teams matchup this should be a very close game. Washington State is a quality rebounding team, and they have been a great ball control team. They should hold their own on the boards and avoid turnovers today, and that will ensure they keep this game within a single digit margin.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on road underdogs in a game involving two teams making 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts after 15 or more games when that road dog is coming off a game making 13 or more three point shots. This system is 32-6 (84%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Blowout on Samford -

The records may not indicate it, but Samford is the better team in this matchup. The Bulldogs have an impressive 8-3 record at home, while the Chattanooga Mocs have struggled on the road at 5-9. The Mocs have lost their last two road games and that trend should carry over into today's game.

The biggest problem for Chattanooga has been on the defensive end of the court. When playing on the road they are surrendering 79.9 points per game. Don't let the Moc's 9-1 Southern Conference record intimidate you because this is a team that has benefited from a soft conference schedule this season. Samford will have the revenge factor on their side for this game. The Bulldogs lost on the road the last time these teams met, and the change in venue should easily swing the outcome of this game in their favor.

While college basketball rest profiles are not generally a factor to be concerned about because of their limited number of games, it is worth noting that Samford has a 12-2 ATS record over the last two seasons when playing with one or less days of rest. The Bulldogs are also 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. They have a 20-7 ATS record in all games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas -

The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now. They have won eight of their last nine games, and have the luxury of home court advantage for this game. Kansas has one of the Big 12's best home court advantages. They are 9-1 at Allen Fieldhouse this season, averaging 82.6 points per game.

I expect Kansas to score at-will against this soft West Virginia defense. The Mountaineers are surrendering 71.4 points per game this season. On the other end of the court West Virginia will struggle to find the basket against this underrated Jayhawks defense. Kansas has surrendered 68.2 points per game at home this season, and that has come against opponents whose scoring average is 75.9 points per game.

The Kansas Jayhawks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against Big 12 opponents. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. The Mountaineers are coming into this matchup having surrendered 76.9 points per game against conference opponents, and they are simply outmatched by the Jayhawks in several of the key statistical categories. Kansas has a rebounding, shooting and defensive edge, and they should win this game in a blowout.

5* CBB Game of the Year on Tulsa -

This matchup should be a blowout win for the Golden Hurricane. Rice has simply fallen apart in C-USA play this year, and they are severely outmatched by Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes are averaging 73.4 points per game this season, and they should have no problem putting up a big number against the Owls soft defense. Rice has surrendered 72.9 points per game against conference opponents, and 73.8 points per game over their last five games.

The advantages for Tulsa don't end in scoring. They have a significant rebounding advantage too. Rice comes into this matchup averaging 33 rebounds per game with only six coming on the offensive glass. They are -4 in rebounding margin this season. The Owls are also slightly more turnover prone than the Golden Hurricanes. Tulsa has been a great ball control team averaging just 11 turnovers per game.

You should play on road favorites like Tulsa when they are making 42.5 to 45 percent of their shot attempts and are facing a poor shooting team making 40 to 42.5 percent of their attempts after 15 or more games, and that road team is coming off a poor three point shooting performance making 20 percent or less of their attempts. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 55-21 (72%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* MAC Game of the Week on Miami Ohio +

This is too many points for the Redhawks to be receiving in a matchup that features two evenly matched teams. The Ohio Bobcats are coming off an embarrassing loss to Western Michigan in their last outing. They have struggled to live up to oddsmakers expectations, losing three of their last five games against the spread.

The Redhawks have a solid defense, and they should give Ohio a lot of trouble in this game. They have held opponents to 68.7 points per game when playing on the road. They are averaging eight steals per game, and committing a mere 13 turnovers per game. The Redhawks have put up very similar numbers to the Bobcats when playing conference opponents, and that tells me these teams are a lot more even than this line would indicate.

You should play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ohio when they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite against a conference rival, and they are facing an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 points or more. This system identifies home teams that the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 47-20 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Ivy League Game of the Month on Yale -

The Yale Bulldogs are the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last five games, and I see no reason why they can't pick up a road win over Dartmouth tonight. Statistically these teams are fairly even, but I think it is the Bulldogs that have the advantage tonight. They are facing a Big Green team that will be without one of its best players.

Gabas Maldunas is out with a season ending ACL injury. The Big Green have played well without their leading scorer in their past two games, but the competition has not been that tough. I think Dartmouth's two wins in its last two games has the oddsmakers over adjusting tonight. Yale has one of the best conference records in the Ivy League, and with Maldunas gone they should have no problem dominating this game. Maldunas was not only Dartmouth's leading scorer, we was also the team's leader in rebounds per game so his production is going to be missed.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bulldogs. You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Yale when they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in their last three games, but they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the road team and it has resulted in a 43-20 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout Blowout on Long Beach St +

The oddsmakers have continuously undervalued the 49ers on the road this season. Long Beach State has a 7-4 ATS record in road games, and I like their chances to pick up another ATS win in this game. I also think there is also a lot of potential for the 49ers to pull off the upset tonight.

The 49ers are riding a four game win streak coming into this matchup. They have won both of their road games straight up as an underdog during that stretch. The Anteaters on the other hand are trying to find a way to stop the bleeding after losing two of their last three games. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games, and they even have a straight up loss at home as a six point favorite during that stretch.

This is a revenge game for the 49ers after losing by two-points on their home court earlier this season. A change in venue should only motivate Long Beach State as they try to give the Anteaters the home loss that was given to them in the first meeting of the season. The 49ers have been playing incredibly well in the second half of the season winning five of their last six games, and that is a trend that should continue against UC-Irvine tonight.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +

Washington should have no problem keeping this game close with Utah. The Huskies have been playing well recently winning two of their last three games. Utah on the other hand has lost three consecutive games. These teams have put up very similar numbers in the key statistical categories, and their overall records are also very similar. To favor the Utes by a near double-digit margin is severely underestimating the talent level of this Huskies team.

Both of these teams are averaging similar scoring numbers, but I think it is Washington that actually has the edge. The Huskies opponents have a defensive scoring average of 68.8 points per game, yet Washington has put up an average of 76 points per game. Utah on the other hand has faced opponents whose defensive scoring average is 74.4 points per game, and the Utes only average 79.2 points per game.

The Huskies have a long history of playing well against winning teams. They are 55-33 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring their opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games. Lorenzo Romar is great at preparing his team for a high scoring opponent. As the head coach of Washington he has a 20-8 record against the spread when facing a team scoring 77 points or more after 15 or more games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UTEP -

This game has blowout written all over it. UTEP is clearly a much better team than East Carolina. The Miners come into this matchup with a 16-6 record this season, and a 6-1 record against C-USA opponents. East Carolina on the other hand has fallen apart recently, dropping to 12-10 overall and 1-6 against conference opponents.

The Miners are riding a six game win streak, and nothing in this matchup indicates that run will be ending today. They have the luxury of facing a Pirates defense that has surrendered almost 73 points per game. The Pirates are only one game above .500 when playing at home, and UTEP will easily be one of the best teams they have faced on their home court this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Miners. You should play on favorites like UTEP when they average 67-74 points per game and are coming off three straight wins by 10 points or more, when they are facing an average defense allowing 67-74 points per game. This system is 240-157 (61%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Tulsa +

Louisiana Tech has been playing some very mediocre basketball without Raheem Appleby in the lineup. I think that puts the value on Tulsa receiving near double-digits in this matchup. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 74 points per game this season, and they have the luxury of facing a Bulldogs team that has surrendered 75.6 points per game over their last five games.

Tulsa has a very underrated defense. They may not look great on paper, but when you look at their difficult schedule its easy to see why the Golden Hurricane are surrendering 72 points per game. That number is still well below their opponents scoring averages on the season. Tulsa has also been a great ball control team averaging 11 turnovers per game. They should compete on the boards with the Bulldogs so keeping this game within single-digits should be an easy task to accomplish.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Bulldogs. You should fade home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Louisiana Tech when they average over 76 points per game and are coming off two or more games with a combined score of 155 points or more, when they are facing an opponent that has held opponents to 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 51-26 (66%) against the spread.