Sports Picks & Predictions

4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UMKC +

A lot of points being given up by North Dakota State here as they play host to UMKC. The value is with the Kangaroos who are coming off a loss at home as an eight point favorite against Nebraska-Omaha, giving UMKC their second straight loss. The key though is both of those games were at home. UMKC travels very well as evidenced by the three game stretch before their two losses were they covered the number and did so quite comfortably.

North Dakota State is a good team that doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, but one weakness is they don't get to the foul line very often. This negates an advantage they would have in that UMKC is a foul happy team. Their main advantage lies with their 3-point shooting against a porous Kangaroo perimeter defense. The only issue with that is when you get up double digits in the second half, coaches want to kill clock and bang it inside, not continue to chuck 3-point shots.

North Dakota State did beat UMKC by 19 points earlier in the year, but like I said this team plays a lot better on the road than they do at home. I think they keep the margin a little bit closer this time around.

A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When that loss was by double digits the system tightens to 434-296 (60%).

3* on Tennessee-Martin +

Eastern Kentucky is a solid team but they are a little banged up right now. Glenn Cosey leads the team in scoring and has missed six straight games with a finger injury, while Orlando Williams has missed three straight too. Cosey is doubtful and Williams is questionable tonight, so the team might be a little short-handed as they take to the road against Tennessee-Martin.

Tennesee-Martin broke a four game straight up and against the spread losing streak last time out when they pulled the upset off against SIU Edwardsville. That should give this team confidence heading into this game, but Eastern Kentucky is going to have to stay focused after a hard fought game against Belmont. That was a big game and a chance to prove themselves against some elite competition and they failed. Not only that, but they allowed Belmont to shoot 67.4% from the floor against them.

I know Eastern Kentucky has been shooting well lately and could put up a big number, but history works against them there. Double digit favorites who have made 47% or more of their shots over the last four games are actually just 83-134 (38.2%) ATS, making it a nice fade and a play for Tennessee-Martin.

5* CBB NO BRAINER on Troy +

This is too many points for Troy to be getting against Western Kentucky. The Trojans are 4-6 in the conference, but the Hilltoppers are only 5-6 themselves. The margin of victory in conference games shows Troy at -3 and Western Kentucky at dead even and they have played very similar conference schedules.

The first time these two teams met Western Kentucky won by four points. However, they grabbed 20 more rebounds than the Trojans, including 13 more on the offensive side of the ball. They do have a small rebounding advantage, but you can bet Troy concentrates on hitting the boards tonight to even up that advantage and keep this game close. Plus, they had Jamal Crook that game and he's been out since December 16th. It's no surprise these team was 8-3 with him and 3-8 without him.

Troy continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. They have now won four of six and have covered fix of six. Western Kentucky on the other hand has lost three in a row, and six of seven both straight up and against the spread. They are shooting horrifically, not having broken the 40% mark in their last three games. Their sole win during this stretch was against a terrible Lafayette team at home when they held their opponent to 28.8% shooting.

A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When the underdog is off an upset win as a road underdog the system tightens to 54-21 (72%).

4* UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hofstra +

This is going to be an ugly, low scoring game and this is too many points to pass up on in this spot. Hofstra is just 2-5 in Colonial play but they are only losing by 3.9 ppg. James Madison stands at 6-3 but they are winning by 1.8 ppg. You can see where they might not be quite as good as their wins and losses show.

Neither one of these teams is good offensively. Both shoot at a lower rate than their opponents normally allow. James Madison has been getting points by getting to the line and converting, but Hofstra is a team that plays hands off defense. However, they do a good job of getting to the charity stripe and James Madison has a propensity to foul, so that alone should help the Pride put points on the board.

James Madison has three straight wins, but they were favorites in each. Sure they have the home floor but last year the road team took each game of the series. Six of the last seven games in this series have been decided by three points or less and James Madison hasn't beat Hofstra by double digits since 1/12/2002.

You want to fade double digit favorites who are off a conference win when playing a team off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) the last five seasons. You also want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams scored 65 or less. These teams are 156-91 (63.2%) the last five years when playing on the road.

3* on Samford +

This is a few too many points for Davidson to be laying in this game and it comes from a little better name recognition and how they played last time out. Davidson went on the road Saturday and took App State to the wood shed. Holding them to 30.2% shooting while shooting 51% themselves. However, they are facing a little better team here tonight and even though this game is on the road, they are expected to win by the same margin.

Samford is 5-2 in Southern conference play, winning by three points per game. They went on the road as 15 point underdogs against College of Charleston and picked up the straight up win. Their only loss came by two points on the road to UNC-Greensboro. This team has shot very well in conference play and should be able to keep somewhat up with the high scoring Davidson attack.

You want to fade double digit favorites off a blowout win of 20 or more when they play an opponent off a close loss by three or less. This situation is 65-35 (65%) over the last five seasons. You also want to take double digit underdogs off a road loss when playing a team that is coming off two straight road wins. This situation is 57-23 (71.2%) the last five years.

4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UC-Santa Barbara +

This is a few too many points for the Gauchos to be getting tonight against the 49ers. Sure Long Beach has a 11-8 record compared to the 7-12 mark for Santa Barbara, but the point differential is more telling. The 49ers are losing their games by 2.4 ppg while the Gauchos are losing theirs by 4.7, showing these two teams are more even than they appear.

I know Santa Barbara is weak defensively, but that is mainly due to trouble against the 3-point shot. Long Beach isn't a great 3-point shooting team so I don't know if they can exploit that weakness. On the other hand UCSB shoots a LOT of 3-pointers and makes a decent percentage while the 49ers give up a higher percentage than their opponents normally make, giving us an advantage with the Gauchos.

Santa Barbara has lost two straight as a home favorite while Long Beach is on a six game winning streak. The Gauchos have lost five of six at the pay window and the 49ers have won five of six. All this translates into the oddsmakers over-adjusting for this game tonight and the value is with the road team.

You want to fade home double digit favorites off a home win against a conference rival when taking on an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. their opponent. These teams are 762-553 (58%) of the last five seasons.

4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Southern Illinois -

Southern Illinois is going to be out for revenge here against Drake tonight. The Bulldogs have not only beaten the Salukis the last seven times these two teams have met, but the four times at home as well.

Southern Illinois has lost four in a row and three in a row at the pay window, so the team is struggling. The team was an underdog in all four so it's not like they were expected to win, plus Creighton is the only team that blew them out by a few points more than was expected. Drake has pulled off a couple of nice upset wins recently at Illinois State and at home over Creighton, but against the bottom teams in the conference like UNI and Missouri State they have come up empty.

Drake is 5-14 AST as a road underdog the last two years and Southern Illinois is 51-28 ATS after a game with nine or less assists since 1997. I think the recent play of these two teams has Drake over-valued and Southern Illinois under-valued, so the small home favorite is appealing here tonight.

3* on Central Florida +

Tulane is an over-valued team that has lost three of their last four. Their only conference wins came at home against bad teams in Tulsa and Rice. They have on win on the year against a team that even is in the top 130 of my power rankings and it was against Alabama back on December 30th.

Central Florida on the other hand has looked good in Conference USA play. They have won four of their five games and three in a row. Their only loss came against East Carolina on the road and occurred in overtime.

The Knights are efficient on offense and defense, while Tulane has struggled on both ends of the floor in conference play. Over the last five games UCF is showing 47.4% from the floor while allowing 41.4%. Tulane on the other hand is giving up 47.5% and shooting only 38.4%.

Central Florida has won five straight in this series and is the better team here today. They should win this one outright.

3* on Appalachian State +

I know College of Charleston gets after it on the defensive side of the floor, but they are not good enough offensively to be laying double digits here to Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are not as bad as their 8-11 record would indicate as they are only losing by one ppg. The Cougars may come into this one at 14-7 but they are only outscoring opponents by three points per game, so the difference between the two teams isn't enough to justify the high point spread.

The reason for this big number is two fold. One is that Charleston is coming off a 29 point whooping of Wofford, but one game does not make a season. The other is that App State has lost four in a row against the spread and is coming off a 21 point loss to Davidson. Davidson though is an elite team and they were getting double digits there so the blowout isn't a shocker to me. I think the lines have been over-adjusted due to the recent play, and there is value on the road dog here tonight.

You want to play against double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more against an opponent off a double digit conference loss. This system is 73-39 (62.2%) over the last five seasons. App State is 18-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last three years and 10-1 ATS against teams allowing opponents to shoot less than 42%. They are also 10-2 ATS as a double digit dog the last three years and 7-0 ATS on the road after a loss by 20 points or more since 1997.

3* on UMass +

La Salle is being over-rated here today because of how they have played lately, and I think that is also why the Minutemen have a great chance of pulling off the upset. This Explorers team is coming off back to back wins against Butler and VCU. That is no easy feat, but it primes them for a letdown against UMass today.

The Minutemen aren't a team you want to face with less than your full focus either. This team lost early to NC State and Miami, which looking back doesn't seem so bad. They have some decent wins against Richmond last time out, East Carolina, Providence and Harvard too.

LaSalle plays pretty solid defense because they force a lot of turnovers, but UMass takes care of the ball. They also shoot at a decent rate and with the Explorers giving up a lot of easy buckets trying to force turnovers, they shouldn't have a problem putting points on the board tonight. LaSalle on the other hand can struggle to score. UMass's main problem si they foul too much but the Explorers are not a good foul drawing team.

This is a good matchup for the Minutemen and they are catching enough points for me to take them.

5* CBB NO BRAINER on William & Mary +

We played on Delaware Monday night to end their three game losing streak both straight up and at the pay window and they came through for us against Drexel, but due to that upset win they are laying too many points here tonight to William & Mary. Drexel got off to a great start in that game and had a double digit lead late but nearly blew the game and cost themselves a win. They are on short rest and after an emotional win like that I think this team is going to be a little spent coming into this matchup.

If you look at these two teams you see very even 8-11 to 9-11 records, but the scoring margins tell a different story. The Tribe are actually outscoring their opponents by 0.3 ppg while the Fighting Blue Hens are losing by 1.4 ppg. The Tribe are only 2-6 in the conference, but they have lost two games this year on the road in double overtime so they could just as easily be 4-4.

I'll take the large number of points here with an undervalued team taking on an opponent on short rest.

3* on Northwestern +

Jordan Morgan is doubtful tonight and while the Michigan Wolverines have plenty of other talent on this team, he's a solid role player who rebounds and gets his points efficiently. I think his loss will be felt more than most people think. Michigan has a tough stretch with Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State coming up so I don't think they are going to go all out with a player already down to injury. They will want to save up for the upcoming game that will go a long way to determining the Big Ten champion.

You want to fade double digit favorites off a win against a conference rival against an opponent off an upset loss by double digits. This situation is 100-52 (66%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs who are revering a home loss to an opponent when two winning teas meet. These underdogs are 111-58 (66%) since 1997.

Coach Bill Carmody is 21-9 ATS at Northwestern when playing teams that have won 80% more of their games during the second of the season and this team is 6-0 ATS on the road after allowing opponents to score 30 or less in the first half of two straight games.

3* BAILOUT on Nevada +

I think this is a few too many points for Nevada to be getting in this rivalry game against UNLV. The Rebels don't force many turnovers and the Wolfpack are a solid ball handling team, so they should get plenty of possessions that end in shots.

Another thing I like about this game is how well Nevada gets to the line, and UNLV has a propensity to foul their opponents. On the other hand the Rebels don't shoot many free ones while the Wolfpack play defense without fouling. Nevada shoots four more free throw attempts than their opponents usually average and they hit 75% of their attempts.

You want to play on road underdogs off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog playing their 3rd game in a week. These teams are 106-63 ATS (62.7%) over the last five seasons.

UNLV hasn't won a conference game by more than 12 points. This team was favored by double digits against Air Force and only covered by five. Nevada has two upset wins in their last three games, and while I don't think they win outright they should keep it close like they did last year when they played the Rebels to a 67-71 final in Las Vegas.

3* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Delaware +

These are two very evenly matched teams but we are getting some value here due to the way the two teams have played recently. Drexel has had three straight wins while Delaware has lost three straight. What makes those losses even more frustrating is they were only getting 1.5 points last time out and were favored the previous two games. The public and most bettors might be bailing on this team, but I think this is a good spot for them to get out of a rut.

Delaware has been a good team at bouncing back, going 35-18 ATS on the road after a double digit loss since 1997. Drexel on the other hand is just 2-9 ATS as a favorite this year and head coach Bruiser Flint is just 12-24 ATS after a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot less than 33% from the floor.

The fact that Drexel played on Saturday while Delaware hasn't played since Thursday means the Blue Hens had more time to prepare and should keep this one close.

You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two margin losing teams (winning percentage in the 40's). These teams are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Florida International +

Florida International is coming on strong and I think they are going to get their revenge here today. South Alabama won on the road in the first matchup by a score of 79-68, but they shot 13-of-24 (54.2%) from 3-point range to do so. Florida International on the other hand was just 6-of-24 (25%). Since both these teams shoot 34.1% on the year and Florida International is better at defending the three, this stat alone should even out and cause this to be a closer game.

The Golden Panthers are playing some great basketball lately too. They have won seven of their last eight games and two of those were upset victories. They haven't been favored by double digits in that time either, so they are getting the job against teams they should be but not necessarily inferior competition. I think they carry that success over here today.

You want to take teams revenging a home loss when they are off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. These teams are 247-163 (60.2%) when getting points.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Manhattan +

I like Manhattan to get their revenge against Rider on Sunday. The Jaspers were upset by the Broncs back on 1/10 by a score of 69-60, but a couple of things happened in that game that make me think the roles will be reversed this time.

First, Rider out rebounded Manhattan by 16 boards, and they aren't especially strong on the glass. In fact, they get out rebounded on the season. Second, they shot twice as many free throws as the Jaspers. Both teams foul more than they should to send the opposition to the line, but that was an outlier.

This should be a low scoring game since both teams are strong defensively and weak on the offensive side of the floor, so I'll take the points when they will be coming at a premium today.

A system that supports our play says to take the road team when they are revenging a loss against an opponent and playing with one day of rest or less. These teams are 336-235 (58.8%) over the last five seasons.

4* CBB NO DOUBT ROUT on Austin Peay +

Two bad teams meet up today but I think Austin Peay takes home an easy cover. They are 16-6 ATS on the road against teams scoring less than 64 points per game since 1997 while Tennessee Tech is just 1-8 ATS at home against teams with a losing record the last three seasons.

Tennessee Tech is one of the worst shooting teams I have seen. They are coming off a 13-for-51 (25.5%) performance against Murray State, but they have now shot 37% or worse in six of their last seven games. Austin Peay on the other hand is coming off back-to-back games in which they shot 50% or better from the field.

Tennessee Tech doesn't play bad defense, but they are a little more susceptible from behind the arc and the Governors are making 42.4% of their 3-point shots on the road this season. Defensively, Austin Peay isn't the greatest but I don't think that is going to matter against a team that shoots as bad as Tennessee Tech does.

3* on Mississippi State +

This is a little too good of value for me to pass up on. Right now these two teams couldn't be any different in the public's eyes. You have Mississippi State who has lost three games in a row both straight up and against the spread. They have been beaten by 15+ points in each game and now they face a Florida team that has won seven in a row since a loss to Kansas State and have covered in six straight games.

The Gators aren't just winning but they are winning in convincing fashion. They have won by 15 or more points in each of their last seven games. However, I think it's going to be tough for the Gators to stay focused playing a bad team here Saturday night.

Teams find it tough to maintain a high level of focus against weak competition. That is why if you would have faded double digit favorites who have won 80%+ of their games and have also covered four straight games you would be 40-16 ATS the last five seasons if you backed a team with a losing record. You also want to fade favorites of 20+ off a double digit win against a conference rival. This situation is 64-32 ATS the last five years.

3* on Oklahoma +

This is too many points for the Jayhawks to be laying to a pretty good Oklahoma Sooners team. Kansas was favored by only 11 points at home against Colorado, 12 v. Belmont, 15 against Richmond, 13 v. Temple, 11.5 against Iowa State, and 10.5 against Baylor. Oklahoma is right in the mix with all of those teams and yet is getting a few extra points here today.

Kansas is hot right now and stand at 14-1 on the season, but that doesn't mean they have looked good the entire year. Temple played them tough down to the wire and Iowa State took them to overtime. This team is coming off two close wins at Texas and Kansas State. They haven't been shooting nearly as good and that is going to make it difficult for the Jayhawks to cover a large spread like this.

You want to fade double digit favorites coming off 10 or more straight wins. Doing so would have given you a 156-90 (63.4%) ATS record the last five years. If it's a team that has won 80%+ of their games playing a team that has won at least 60%, the record jups to 62-29 (68.1%). I'll take the points as I think this one is closer than the oddsmakers think.

4* BIG EAST BLOOD BATH on DePaul +

This is a classic look ahead spot for the Pitt Panthers. They are playing a not very good DePaul team today, but on Monday have a big showdown with Louisville. Don't think that these kids aren't looking ahead to that game, regardless of Louisville suffering a couple of losses this week.

I know DePaul blew their chance for a conference win by losing at home to St. John's last time out. However, you want to fade double digit home favorites who are off a conference win against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so would have gone 80-42 (65.6%) ATS the last five seasons. DePaul has had all week to think about that loss and to help motivate them to get back to business since the loss occurred last Saturday. Don't think these kids didn't go at it hard this week to try to prepare for Pitt.

These two have played three common opponents this season and DePaul was only outscored by 5.3 points, Pitt on the other hand only averaged a one point victory. This is a lot of points, and too good to pass up.

5* IVY LEAGUE NO BRAINER OF THE YEAR on Dartmouth +

Dartmouth isn't very good, but this is a lot of points to be getting here today. They are only 4-11 on the year, but they are losing by a score of 64.9 to 60.3 so their record is worse than they really are. Harvard is a good team that comes into this game at 9-6 but they play at a slow pace, so beating a team by nearly 20 points is a tall order in my mind. They haven't attempted more than 48 shots in any of their last four games.

Both of these teams might be a little rusty to start out, since Dartmouth has each has played just one time since they last met back on 1/12. Harvard won that game by 10 points, but they aren't going to shoot 60%+ from the field again so getting to a double digit victory seems like a stretch to me.

Dartmouth is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road when playing against a team with a winning record the second half of the last three seasons while Harvard is 0-7 ATS at home after two straight games in which they attempted 50 or less shots the last two years.

A solid system supports our play here that say to take double digit underdogs who are revenging a home loss v. an opponent. These teams are 761-552 (58%) ATS over the last five seasons, but when you tighten it up where the team is revenging a double digit home loss the system is 394-263 (60%).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Canisius +

Despite struggling a little bit lately, I think Canisius is the better team and should pick up the win over Rider here tonight. The Golden Griffins are an excellent three point shooting team. They attempt 24 3-point shots per game and are hitting 39% of them, and even though they shoot so many long range bombs they still do a good job of getting to the line where they convert over 72% of their free throws.

Rider has been playing well but are over-valued in this spot. The Broncs have covered in seven straight games and have a five game winning streak. They have played solid defense, allowing four of their last five opponents to shoot less than 40%. The problem is they aren't that strong offensively, and none of the teams they have played during this stretch can shoot the three like Canisius.

Rider beat the Griffins twice last year, and I think this team will be out for some revenge here tonight so take the small number.

4* HEAVY HITTER on San Diego +

St. Mary's has looked good so far this year, winning seven of their last eight games and that sole loss being at Gonzaga. However, I think they are laying a few too many points here to a decent San Diego squad. The Torreros were on a five game winning streak of their own with upset wins at San Francisco and at Pepperdine. Their streak came to an end at BYU, a team that is comparable to what they will face here tonight.

St. Mary's shoots a lot of three-pointers, and hits them at a high rate (38.5%). However, San Diego does a good job defending the perimeter, allowing only 30.6% of their opponents three-point attempts to hit. This is a pretty solid matchup for the Torreros and I think they keep it close enough to get us the cover here tonight.

Our play falls into a nice situation here that says to fade double digit favorites off a conference win by 20+ points or more when playing an opponent off a double digit conference loss. This situation has gone 72-38 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs off a conference road loss when playing an opponent off two or more straight road wins. This system is 57-22 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years.

4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Idaho State +

I'm not going to sugar coat this one that Idaho State is a decent team with a chance to win. They aren't a good team and a win would be a surprise. However, a couple of things I like here. The first is that it's a classic look ahead game for Montana. They have Weber State on deck Saturday so you can bet they spent a little bit of time preparing for that game instead of worrying about the 4-13 Bengals.

The other thing I like is that both of these teams play at a very slow pace. Idaho State averages under 60 possessions per game, while Montana is only at 65. With few chances to score, it's always a wise idea to take the double digits.

Last year Idaho State went up to Montana and lost by 36 points. They were also beat on their home floor by 24. The Grizzlies are going to take this team lightly, but Idaho State should be giving this game their full attention to avoid another embarrassment. I'll take the points.

A few systems support our play here today that say to play against home double digit favorites off a home conference win against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This system has gone 96-55 (63.6%) ATS since 1997. You want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams score 65 points or less. This system is 189-114 (62.4%) the last five years.

3* on Austin Peay +

The public looks at this game and see a 12-7 Jackonsville State team at home against a 5-15 Austin Peay and immediately sides with the home team, but not so fast. The Governors have a great shot at upsetting the Gamecocks in this one. They are a solid three-point shooting team that hits 40.5% of their attempts from beyond the arc. The Gamecocks have done a good job of defending the three-point shot this year, but they haven't seen anyone who can shoot like this.

The Gamecocks shoot just 42.5% from the floor and 30% at home from behind the arc, so I don't know how they are going to put up enough points in this one to cover a double digit spread. The Governors are coming off a pair of upset losses on their home floor, and I think the change of scenery does them well here tonight. Take the points in what should be a close game.

5* CBB NO BRAINER on Tennessee-Martin +

I'll take the points here with the Skyhawks. Eastern Illinois is one of the worst defensive teams I have seen, allowing opponents to make 48.2% of their shots on the season. I know that Tennessee-Martin isn't going to set the nets on fire with how they shoot, but they should get some easy buckets tonight.

I also like the fact that the Panthers slow the pace down so much with only 60 possessions per game. When you have a slow down team like this who allows such a hefty field goal percentage, the points are too good to pass up.

Tennessee-Martin is 15-3 ATS against teams who average 53 or less shots per game the last three years while Eastern Illinois is 0-7 ATS against teams winning less than 40% of their games the last three, a big reason they are 1-12 ATS as a home favorite during that time.

4* CBB VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Southern +

Appalachian State is laying a few too many points here in this spot. Georgia Southern got caught taking a bad opponent lightly their last time out and lost at home by 15 points to the Citadel. They were favored by double digits and never really showed up. Those games are normally followed by hard work and attention to detail in practice, so I think they come back in a big way tonight.

App State is off a couple of disappointing road losses in games that went down to the wire, but this team is going to have trouble blowing anyone out the way they play defense. The Mountaineers are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.7% on the year.

I also like how the Eagles play at a slow pace. When you limit the number of possessions and you are getting this many points, it normally spells a cover.

3* on Indiana-Purdue +

I like this matchup with Indiana-Purdue going on the road to take on Oakland. The Jaguars are a pretty good shooting team, especially from three-point range where they have hit 39.2% of their shots on the road. That's good because Oakland allows 40.3% 3-point shooting at home, and gives up about three more outside looks per game than their opponents average.

Neither one of these two teams can play defense, but IUPUI is the better shooting team. Even though they don't get to the line as often, nor do they rebound as well, the better shooting team getting this many points is too good to pass up.

A couple of systems support our play here on IUPUI tonight. One says to play against home teams off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more when they also have a losing record. This situation is 52-20 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years. Another solid situation is to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS the last five years.

3* on Washington State +

This is a sandwich game for Oregon. The Ducks are off a big win at UCLA last Saturday and will head to Washington to face a Huskies team that is 4-1 in Pac-12 play this Saturday. In between is a Washington State squad that is just 1-4 in league play and 10-8 overall.

The Cougars though will be out for revenge for what happened last year. They lost by nine points up here in Eugene and by 17 points at home to the Ducks. That means this team will be getting their full attention here today as they would like nothing more than to upset the conference leader.

Washington State plays at a very slow methodical pace and will limit the possessions the Ducks have. With a low scoring game like that it's tough not to like a double digit underdog.

You want to play against home favorites of double digits off a conference win playing against an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This play has gone 78-41 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to fade double digit home favorites after seven or more straight wins when the team has won 80% or more of their games on the season. This situation has gone 199-127 (61%) the last five years.

3* on Central Michigan -

Northern Illinois has been awful on the road this year, going 1-8 but losing by more than 12 ppg. Central Michigan might not be a great team, but they are 5-1 at home and winning by more than 5 ppg.

I like this matchup for the Chippewas. They do a good job of getting to the line and then converting their free throws, while the Huskies foul too much and send their opponents to the charity stripe. Central Michigan has trouble defending the three point shot, but that shouldn't be a problem with Northern Illinois making only 27.$ of their long range attempts this year. On the other hand, Central Michigan likes to take three's and with Northern Illinois giving up 37.3% from behind the arc they should get a lot of open looks.

Northern Illinois is struggling lately, losing eight of their last nine and they are coming off a 37 point beating at home versus Western Michigan. CMU on the other hand should be high on confidence after beating Ball State by 14 on Saturday. They have covered nine of their last 11, and they cash again at the pay window for us here tonight.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Penn +

This is a classic look ahead spot for Temple here today. Saturday this team goes to Butler to take on the Bulldogs, so I don't think their full attention is going to be on the a Penn team who checks into this game with a 3-14 record. Penn might not be very good, but they had done a decent job of covering the spread. They played Butler to a 13 point game and Princeton to 12 with both of those games coming on the road.

Temple has been favored by double digits six times so far this year and has only covered the large spread one time. They aren't good at running away from teams, even those as bad as the Quakers. I'll take the large number here in what should not be a blowout game.

A bunch of situations back our play here today. The first says to fade double digit favorites who win more than 60% of their games against teams winning less than 20%. These teams have gone 264-173 (60.4%) ATS since 1997. On the other hand you want to take road, double digit underdogs after a loss by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a game in which both teams combined for 155 or more points. These teams are 118-67 (63.8%) the last five seasons.

4* CBB NO BRAINER on Penn State +

Penn State is not a good team while Indiana is one of the best in the nation, but they don't have any business getting this many points. They only lost to the Badgers in Wisconsin by nine points, and lost by nine to Michigan State. They already faced the Hoosiers once this year and while they lost by 23, you can't expect Indiana to keep the pedal to the medal much more than that here today.

The Hoosiers have Michigan State on deck, so when this team gets a lead I expect them to make sure their guys get plenty of rest, and not show the Spartans anything new. This is a classic look passed situation, and the Nittany Lions take advantage with a cover.

A lot of systems back our play here tonight. You want to play against favorites of 10 points or more who score 78+ ppg against a team scoring less than 63 ppg during the second half of the season, when the team allowed 60 or less last time out. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5%) since 1997. You also want to play against home favorites of 20+ points after a win over a conference foe. These teams are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS the last five years.

You want to take underdogs of 20 or more points revenging a home loss against an opponent as this situation is 99-44 (69.2%) over the last five seasons.

5* NO DOUBT BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -

Wright State is a good team but they should be getting more points in this situation. This team is coming off a tough stretch, they played Saturday against a good Valparaiso team and only lost by six, then came back on Monday and won at Detroit. However, this will be their third game in five days, which is a rare occurrence for college basketball's regular season. Youngstown State had several days to prepare so they should be more ready for this one.

People will look at Wright State's 14-5 record against Youngstown's 10-8 and cringe, but looking at the margin of victory you will see 5.4 ppg for Wright and 4.5 ppg for Youngstown, so these teams are closer than you think. Add in the rest factor and the home court advantage and this team should be laying six plus.

3* VEGAS INSIDER on Wisconsin -

Wisconsin is going to come into this game determined to pick up the win after losing in Iowa City to the Hawkeyes on Saturday. They got off to a bad start and dug themselves a hole they couldn't get out of, but Iowa is better than most people realize this year.

Michigan State on the other hand is off an emotional win against Ohio State and it's tough for teams to get up for back-to-back games against good teams like that. Couple that with the fact that the Spartans then head to Indiana next to face the Hoosiers and you can see why their attention might wander a little more than the Badgers.

The Badgers are 114-83 ATS as a home favorite and 58-38 ATS at home after four straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. The Badgers also get up for these big games, going 33-17 ATS at home against a team winning more than 80% of their games.

I like Wisconsin to win in a big way here tonight.

4* BIG 12 ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -7

Texas is not a very good team as evidenced by their 8-9 record and 1-7 mark away from Austin. The Longhorns are getting outscored by 8.5 ppg on the road and are 0-4 in the conference. Texas played Kansas tough at home on Saturday and will be in a little bit of a letdown spot here today as they ended up losing that game due to a poor second half.

Oklahoma should be a hungry for a win after losing at Kansas State. That loss was the Sooners first in the conference as they had previously blew out West Virginia on the road, then Oklahoma State and Texas Tech at home. The Sooners lost twice to the Longhorns last year, so don't think they aren't join to come out blazing against their long-time rivals who are down this year. I see this one being a blowout.

3* CBB HIGH ROLLER on Drake +10

There isn't much home court advantage for Northern Iowa here today as the Bulldogs have to make a short two hour drive across the Hawkeye State to take on the Panthers and I think the double digits is going to be too much to pass up in this rivalry game.

Northern Iowa is coming off a tough loss at Creighton and will be in a little bit of a letdown situation here against Drake. They beat the Bulldogs easily both times they played last year and that typically leads to both line inflation for us and overconfidence for the players.

Drake isn't a great team by any means, but they have been playing well in winning two straight. They beat a pretty good Evansville team last time out, the same team that beat UNI up in Cedar Falls two week s ago. Drake also won at Illinois State as an 11.5 point underdog last Saturday, so this team has to be pretty confident in what they are doing, but don't think they haven't circled this game as one they want in a bad way. Both due to the double digit losses last year and because of the in-state rivalry.

4* HEAVY HITTER on SIU Edwardsville +

The Cougars are a hot team right now that have won two straight games as an underdog. Murray State played well last time out, but had failed to cover the last three times they were favored by double digits.

These teams have played Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky this year. Murray State beat Austin Peay by three while they lost Eastern Kentucky by 12. Edwardsville on the other had beat Peay by 13 on the road and only lost to E. Kentucky by six on the road.

You want to play against home double digit favorites who average more than 74 ppg against teams scoring 63 or less ppg. This system has gone 76-40 ATS over the last five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset win when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. These teams are 165-105 ATS over the last five years.

3* on College of Charleston +

College of Charleston is getting some value here since they are off an upset loss as a favorite while Davidson is off a 32 point win over the Citadel, but the prior game Davidson had also lost the Georgia Southern on the road, except as a 13 point favorite and it was by 13 instead of only four.

Against common opponents both teams are 3-1, the Wildcats winning by 13 ppg while the Cougars are winning by 8 ppg. Davidson might be the better team, but this is too many points for them to be laying against a decent team who lost last time out probably due to looking ahead to this contest.

A great system supports our play today that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite playing on only a day's rest. These teams are 146-92 ATS since 1997.

3* on Central Michigan -

The Chippewas got smoked last year in both games against Ball State, so I think this team is going to come ready to play on Saturday. Central Michigan does a good job of getting to the line, shooting seven more free throws per game at home than their opponents give up, while the Cardinals are allowing opponents to shoot three more free throws per game than their average.

Ball State is 1-8 ATS off a road loss the last two years and 40-61 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games. Central Michigan has been playing pretty solid this year, covering in four of their last five and eight of 10. they have played tough against some good teams and should take advantage of a soft opponent here today.

3* on Louisiana-Lafayette +

I'm going to ride Louisiana-Lafayette this afternoon as they look to revenge an early season loss at home to Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders have struggled to put teams away lately. Before they covered last time out against Arkansas-Little Rock they had lost four in a row at the pay window. That was their first double digit win of 2013 and it was over the leader of the East division of the Sun Belt, so it was pretty big for them, putting them into a letdown spot for today.

A couple of systems help support our play today. Play against double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival when playing an opponent off a conference loss by double digits. This system is 72-36 ATS the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs with a losing record who are revering a home loss against an opponent. This situation is 480-346 ATS the last five years.

4* ODDS MAKERS ERROR on South Dakota +

I went against Oakland last time out when they played UMKC and I'm going to continue to do so until the odds makers stop overvaluing them. These two have six games against common opponents and both are 3-3, but Oakland is winning by 3.5 ppg compared to 2.5 ppg for South Dakota.

The Golden Grizzlies are allowing 49.2% from the field while South Dakota is an above average shooting team. Both of these teams get to the free throw line, but Oakland fouls more than usual while the Coyotes rarely put the opposition on the line. This is a lot of points and I'll gladly take them today.

A nice system supports our play today that say to fade double digit favorites off a no-cover as a win as a favorite when that team has won between 40-50% of their games. This situation is 33-12 ATS since 1997. If the team they are playing has a losing record that number jumps to 25-8 ATS.

3* on Arkansas Little-Rock +

Arkansas Little-Rock had been playing well until getting embarrassed last time out against Middle Tennessee State while Western Kentucky on the other hand was struggling, losing both straight up and against the spread in three straight games before blowing out Lafayette by 23 points. This has led to some value on the Trojans here today.

Arkansas LR already won earlier today at home as a two point underdog so they know they can pull off the upset again today. Western Kentucky is 5-0 against common opponents and wining by 11 ppg, but Ark-Little Rock is 4-2 themselves and winning by 7 ppg. The value here is with the underdog so take the points.

Arkansas Little-Rock is 16-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two years and 14-5 ATS against teams that allow 42% or less. Plus, they are 6-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more the last three years and 11-2 ATS after scoring 60 or less points in their last game.

3* on St. Bonaventure +

The Bonnies haven't played good lately, losing six straight games. The last time out they lost to Xavier at home by two as a 2.5 point favorite, but that doesn't look bad when you see Temple lost by five at Xavier a week ago. Against common opponents Temple is +0.5 ppg while the Bonnies are -4.5. Not great, but not good enough to justify this double digit spread.

Temple beat St. Bonaventure by six on the road last year, so you can bet the Bonnies will be out for revenge here today. The Owls are only shooting 40.6% and 30% from behind the 3-point line. You don't cover too many big spreads if you can't shoot at a high rate.

You want to play against double digit favorites off a road win by 3 points or less when they have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing one. This system is 62-31 over the last three seasons. You also want to take road double digit dogs off an upset loss against a conference rival against an opponent off a conference win. This spot is 75-40 ATS the last five years.

3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Fairfield +

Fairfield has struggled in losing three games in a row, and that has created some value with them here tonight. They haven't lost any of those games by more than five points, so they are playing their opponents tough and doing so with a stifling defense that gives up just 61.6 ppg.

Iona on the other hand has won five in a row, but they haven't lived up to the expectations in covering only once in their last four games. These two teams are fairly evenly matched, and the 5.5 points is a little too much of a home court advantage. I'll take the underdog here tonight.

A couple of systems support our play here tonight that says to take teams who allow 63 or less PPG against teams allowing more than 74 after a loss by six points or less. This situation is 60-28 ATS the past five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset loss to a conference rival at home against an opponent off a home win. These teams are 84-50 ATS the last five years.

4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Portland +

I know a lot of people will see Gonzaga's 16-1 record playing a Portland team that is sub. 500 and scoff, but this is a great situation for Portland. First off, you know they are going to be up for this game since they are playing the Zags, one of the perennial league favorites. Plus, they actually played well against them last year, losing by only 12 points at home when Gonzaga was a 15-point favorite. They actually led at half by a score of 29-25.

However, don't think that will mean Gonzaga gets up for this game the Pilots. They are coming off a big win over St. Mary's last Thursday night and even though they had a long rest, I think that game will have taken a lot out of them. Plus, this team plays on Saturday at Butler in a game they have to be looking forward to.

Portland isn't a threat to win the West Coast, but they went on the road in all three games to open up conference play and did sneak out a victory over Loyola-Marymount as a 5.5 underdog, and were at least in the other two games. I think the win last time out boosted their confidence and puts them in a solid position to play the Zags tough tonight.

A solid system supports our play that says to play against double digit favorites after six or more straight wins when they are on 5 or 6 days rest. This system has gone 159-104 (60.5%) since 1997. Gonzaga is all 0-6 ATS on the road after three straight West Coast games the last two seasons and 17-32 ATS after scoring 80 or more in a win over a conference rival.

3* on Georgia Tech +

Duke is coming off their first loss of the season, so the public will look at that and think they are motivated to win big in their next game. However, teams coming off of a loss to break a double digit win streak in BCS conferences are just 35-43 ATS the next time out. If they are favored that record drops to 27-36 ATS, and if they are favored by double digits it's 12-18 (40%).

Georgia Tech has gotten off to a rough start in ACC play, losing three in a row, including by 13 to Miami, 13 at NC State, and five at home to Virginia. The Yellow Jackets aren't a great team, but when you are getting double digits you don't have to be great to cover.

A couple of systems support our play that say to take double digit road underdogs after they were beaten by 30 ore more points against the spread the last three games, in January. These teams are 109-58 ATS (65.3%) since 1997.

3* on Oregon State +

This is a look ahead spot for UCLA as they will face Oregon on Saturday and Arizona next Thursday, and those are the two teams the Bruins have to worry about in the Pac-12, not the 10-6 Beavers who have lost their first three conference games by double digits.

I like how these teams matchup too. Oregon State main problem in the Pac-12 has been rebounding, but the Bruins aren't necessarily a good rebounding team. Both teams rarely foul, but both do a good job of drawing fouls. Plus, both squads play pretty solid on the defensive end of the floor, so this game should be somewhat low scoring and not a shootout.

I think the odds makers have over-adjusted this line a bit, since the Bruins haven't beat anyone by more than 13 points in a month and have been playing close games even against teams they should have beat easily.

A solid system supporting our play says to play against double digit favorites after nine or more straight wins. This system is 196-119 (62.2%) over the last five years. You also want to play on road underdogs off two straight double digit home losses when playing a team with two straight conference wins. This situation is 41-12 (77.4%) since 1997.

4* HIGH ROLLER on Utah State +

I normally don't love teams that have played weak schedules, but Utah State has gone 14-1 on the year, so at least they have taken care of business. Plus, they are 5-0 in the conference and winning by 10 ppg, while New Mexico State is just 4-2 in conference play, having won by an average of only .5. Against common opponents both teams are 4-0, but Utah State's margin of victory is 11 to New Mexico State's 8.

Plus, you have to think Utah State wants some revenge for what happened to them last year. Both games in this matchup were double digit losses, the first was on the road by 20 points and the second was at home by 11.

Sure, Utah State has struggled at the pay window lately, winning their last three games at home easily but not covering double digit point spreads. I think this team was coasting until they faced New Mexico State in their first real WAC test, so I'll gladly take the points here tonight.

A solid system we like says to play against home favorites of 3.5-9.5 points that make four or less three point shots per game. This system has gone 96-52 (64.9%) over the last five years.

3* on Louisiana-Monroe +

I think you are going to see the UL-Monroe Warhawks get some payback over South Alabama here tonight. Nobody likes this team because they have a terrible record and have averaged losing by double digits, but they have played a tough schedule against teams like Florida State and UAB. This team has been playing better lately and has covered six of their last seven games.

South Alabama looks better than they are and this line reflects too much of what the score was in the first game and not so much what really happened. The Jaguars won 77-70, but they shot 59.1% in that game and reached the foul line 16 more times than the Warhawks. The foul situation is going to even itself out a little more this time.

LA-Monroe had a blip around the turn of the year when they allowed North Texas, S. Alabama, and Florida Atlantic to shoot lights out against them but they have tightened up their defense the last two games, and played solid on that end of the floor prior to the UAB game, so it was an aberration.

South Alabama also pulled one out of a hat last time in shooting so well. They have shot 27.4%, 37%, 40.5%, and 28.1% in the four other games they have played since Christmas.

A solid system supports our play that says to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. an opponent. This system has gone 758-549 ATS over the last five seasons. We can tighten it up when that underdog is off two straight conference losses and the system is 248-162 ATS (60.5%).

4* HEAVY HITTER on UMKC + over Oakland

It's hard to believe that a 7-12 Oakland team is laying this many points, even if UMKC is only 5-13 on the year and 3-6 on the road. Last year they were favored by 14.5 in this spot and only managed to win by 13, and that team was a little better than this year's edition. Plus, Oakland is only 4-14 ATS as a home double digit favorite since 1997.

What is scaring bettors off is how Oakland went into Kansas City last February and put a 33 point beating down on the Kangaroos. However, I think that will serve as motivation here tonight. They shot 61.1% in that game and even shot 52% the previous game against Utah Valley State. This team has some confidence and should do well against an Oakland squad allowing opponents to hit 49.3% of their shots on the season.

UMKC had lost nine in a row before upsetting South Dakota as an 8-point underdog last time out, but that sets us up in a nice spot. A solid system says to take road underdogs who are off an upset win as an underdog when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. This situation has gone 162-103 (61.1%) over the last five years. However, If you tighten the system up to double digit road underdogs off an upset win as a road underdog this system goes to 56-25 (69.1%).

3* on Seton Hall +

Marquette has looked good to start Big East Play and that has created some value in this line here tonight. The Golden Eagles have won five straight with wins over UConn, Georgetown, and at Pitt in conference play. However, I think they will have their hands full tonight trying to beat the Pirates by double digits.

Seton Hall has struggled in losing their last three Big East games, but those came at Notre Dame, v. Louisville, and the disappointing loss at home to Providence. This team should be ready to bounce back from that upset loss with a strong showing against an over-rated Marquette squad.

The Pirates shoot 47.6% from the floor on the road and allow just 40.8% so they should be able to hang with a Marquette team that shoots 46.7% and allows 40.6%. Both teams do a good job of getting to the foul line, both are capable on the glass, and neither has a real advantage creating turnovers. These two teams are a lot closer in skill than the oddsmakers think, so I'll gladly take the big number.

A solid system backing our play says to play against teams off two straight conference wins against teams off consecutive double digit losses at home. This system is 52-22 (70.3%) since 1997.

3* on Georgia +

The Bulldogs have not looked good their last two times out and that has given us some value with them here tonight. Georgia has lost two straight against the spread after suffering a 33 point loss at Florida and a double digit loss at home as a 7.5 point favorite over Mississippi State. I expect them to rebound here tonight against a Missouri team coming off a disappointing loss of their own at Ole Miss in which they only managed to score 49 points.

This is a solid matchup for Georgia as both teams play well on the defensive side of the floor, so with a lower scoring game getting this many points is a gift. Georgia does a good job of getting to the line this year shooting three more free throws per game than their opponents normally allow. The Bulldogs have also been solid on the glass, which should negate the Tigers advantage this year with their offensive rebounding.

Georgia is 6-0 ATS on the road after an upset loss as a favorite the last three years while Missouri is 6-17 ATS after scoring 55 points or less since 1997.

3* on South Carolina +

South Carolina got off to a rough start to the year, but had won five games in a row entering SEC play. Their first game at Mississippi State they only lost by two, covering the spread. They followed that up with an upset loss at home to Auburn due to the fact they allowed the Tigers to shoot 58.5%.

LSU hasn't been shooting well so I don't think they will be able to take advantage of the Gamecocks defensive struggles. They shot 37.3% v. Auburn and 32.3% at Florida.

LSU went on the road and pulled the upset win over the Gamecocks last year, so this South Carolina team is out for a sort of double revenge. They were favored in their loss to Auburn, and last year in this matchup. This team will come out motivated and should keep it within single digits.

3* on Fordham +

Fordham isn't a good team but they check into this game after a pair of covers. They beat Duquense and played a decent UMass team tough at home, covering both games. Charlotte doesn't force a lot of turnovers and the Rams do a good job on the offensive glass, so they should get plenty of opportunities to score tonight.

Charlotte is also playing well, having beat three straight teams by eight or more points since their loss to Florida State back on 12/22. However, a large favorite who has covered two straight is a good fade situation. A solid system backs our play here that says to fade double digit favorites who have covered two straight when they have won 80% or more of their games on the year, facing a team with a losing record. This play has gone 76-39 (66.1%) over the last five seasons.

I'll take the double digits.

3* on Providence +

Providence has played a tough schedule to start the Big East season, having to go to Louisville and Seton Hall while hosting Syracuse and DePaul. It's no surprise they have won only one of those games, but it does raise an eyebrow the game came last time out against Seton Hall and not at home against DePaul. However, finally ending the five game losing streak and winning a conference game should give them some confidence tonight against the Hoyas.

Georgetown has a big win back in early December over Texas, but the Longhorns have disappointed this year. They did play tough at Marquette but got embarrassed by 28 at home against Pitt. They haven't played as tough of a schedule as the Friars, which is why their stats look a little better.

I wouldn't expect this game to be very high scoring as Georgetown allows just 55.4 ppg while Providence gives up 62.2. Neither team excels offensively, but the Friars do have a little more firepower on that end of the floor than the Hoyas do. With points at a premium tonight, I'll take a decent size underdog to win.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Notre Dame -

The Irish have to come into this game with a chip on their shoulders after losing at home to UConn on Saturday. The loss was only Notre Dame's second of the season so you can bet they didn't like how that game tasted. Plus, ND will be out for revenge against St. John's here tonight after dropping their last two in New York, including a 3-point defeat last year as 6.5 point favorites.

Notre Dame is solid on both end's of the floor. They are scoring 75.6 ppg against teams allowing 66.3 and giving up just 61.1 against teams who normally put up 68.4.

Both teams have played decent schedules, but Notre Dame has wins over BYU, Kentucky, and Purdue on their resume while nothing stands out to me for St. John's.

The Red Storm have lost two in a row at home, first to Rutgers as 3.5 point favorites and then Saturday Georgetown took it to them by 16 points. St. John's is 39-59 ATS at home after a loss since 1997 and 2-9 ATS after two straight games of scoring 65 points or less the last two years.

I'm going with the Irish tonight.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Elon +1.5

Elon had been playing solid basketball to end the 2012 calendar year but have gotten off to a slow start in 2013, losing two straight. However, this is a team that played Duke tough for awhile and even beat South Carolina on the road by 12 points as a 7.5 point underdog.

The Catamounts have won three in a row which is important because it sets them up for a spot they have not done well in in the past. West Caroina is just 35-54 ATS when coming off a win against a conference rival and 14-29 ATS at home after a win since 1997.

This is a short trip for the Phoenix so I don't think there is much in the way of home court advantage for West Carolina tonight. Elon is the better team and should pull off the upset in what is an important game in Southern Conference action.

4* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona State +

Oregon knocked off Arizona in what was a great game Thursday night and I think that has set them up for a bit of a letdown tonight. The Wildcat win is fresh in the public's mind so the odds makers had to adjust this line by a point or so to compensate, plus these players have to be feeling pretty a little over-confident after knocking off one of the last remaining unbeatens.

Arizona State on the other hand is a solid basketball team that will give the Ducks a run for their money. They have won six in a row and covered all but one of those games. The Sun Devils went up to Oregon State on Thursday and beat the Beavers as five point underdogs, and I think they will surprise Oregon tonight as well.

Last year Oregon won as an underdog at Arizona State by 9 points. Sun Devils are going to be out for a little payback here today.

5* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on San Francisco +

The St. Mary's Gaels are in a letdown spot here today as they take on the 7-9 Dons of San Francisco. On Thursday night the Gaels went up to Gonzaga and played the Zags tough, losing by only five points. Not only will they have trouble getting up for the Dons after such an emotional win, the next game on the schedule sees them take on another strong team in BYU.

San Francisco is better than their record indicates. Sure, they have lost three in a row, but two of those games they covered against tough teams in BYU and at Santa Clara. the Dons also have covers against Ole Miss and St. John's, so they have played teams tough that have more talent than them.

St. Mary's has put up impressive numbers by beating up cupcakes this year. Gonzaga was their first real test and while they played well, they will probably think things go back to normal as they get a sub. 500 team on Saturday. Too bad for them the Dons will come ready to play and keep this one tight.

Solid system that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite on one day or less of rest. These teams have gone 137-86 (61.4%) since 1997.

3* MONEY MAKER on Austin Peay +

There is no doubt who the better team here is as Murray State comes in at 11-4 and Austin Peay at 5-12, but there is plenty of value in the home dog on Saturday. Murray State is coming off a tough loss by 12 points at home to E Kentucky, a team they were favored by nine points over. They have now failed to cover in four of their last five games as the Racers are consistently over-valued by odds makers.

Austin Peay had lost either in a row before Wednesday's win over Morehead State, but their previous three losses had been by a total of two points. They are playing competitive and should be able to hang with a Murray State team that has to be looking past a team they beat by double digits twice last year.

3* HIGH ROLLER on IUPU-Ft Wayne +

You might look at Wayne's 8-10 record and scoff, but this team has actually outscored their opponents by 2 ppg on the year so they are better than you think. They have played pretty well as the calendar turned to 2013 as well, beating Navy by five and crushing Nebraska-Omaha by 18 before losing as a 15 point underdog to North Dakota State by 12.

South Dakota State has struggled a little bit the last two times out, losing outright as an 11 point favorite to their in-state rivals in South Dakota, then not covering as an 8 point favorite over Oakland. Last year South Dakota State went into Fort Wayne and won by 31 points, that has created a little bit of value for us here tonight.

A system that supports our play here today says to take road underdogs of 10+ points who are coming off a double digit blowout loss when the other team is coming off a high scoring game of 155 points or more. These teams are 175-114 (60.6%) over the last five seasons.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Illinois-Chicago +

The Flames are the better team so I'll gladly take them getting so many points here today. Illinois-Chicago is 10-6 on the season and beating teams by 4.7 ppg. They are winning with their defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 39% from the floor and score 58.6 ppg. The outside shot has been impossible to make against the Flames as they are allow just 29.9% from 3-point range.

Last year the Phoenix went into Chicago and won by eight so I'm expecting a little payback today. Illinois-Chicago has struggled a little lately, losing some close games to conference foes. I think this rough patch has the team focused to pick up an important win here today.

4* DOUBLE DIGIT BLOODBATH on Southern Miss -

Southern Miss started off Conference USA action with a bang, going down to Rice and winning by 23 points as 12 point favorites on Wednesday. They should be plenty of confident for this showdown with Houston as they now have shot 50% or better in six of their last seven games and are coming off a 69.6% performance Wednesday.

Houston has won seven straight games but they have played a laughable schedule to date. This will be the toughest team they have faced yet and will find it difficult to score against a Southern MIss defense that is allowing only 51.8 ppg at home on 35.7% shooting. The Cougars do shoot 39.5% from beyond the arc, but that number has dipped to 27.7% on the road and shouldn't get much better facing a Golden Eagle defense allowing opponents to make just 29.5% of their 3-point attempts.

3* VEGAS INSIDER on San Jose State +

I like how San Jose State matches up with Utah State here tonight. The Aggies have won 12 straight games so you have to give them some respect, but they haven't really taken down anyone tough yet. The Spartans haven't either, but they did go into Kansas and only lose by 13 points, so I think they can keep this one to single digits.

The key is the Spartan defense, which is allowing opponents to shot just 39.3% from the floor and has held three of their last five opponents to less than 36%. Utah State has been efficient on the offensive side of the ball all year, but has slowed down in their last two games shooting only 43.1% and 41.5% in games they won but didn't cover. They also allowed their last two opponents to shoot 48.3% and 46.4% from the field.

How did they win those games? Rebounding and winning the turnover battle. The problem is that San Jose State is good at both of those areas too.

Utah State looks like the better team on paper, but I'll take the Spartans plus the big number here tonight and hope their defense comes to play.

3* HIGH ROLLER on San Diego +

San Diego hasn't had much luck playing away from home this year but I think that changes tonight. Even though they don't have the best road record, their last four games have all been competitive compared to expectations.

San Francisco has played some good teams this year and played them tough, and that should help them in the conference schedule but it also has them a little over-valued in this one. They played BYU tough at home and Santa Clara tough on the road, but this team lost five straight games heading into Christmas day and a lot of them weren't even close.

San Francisco relies on the 3-point shot and they shoot well from the perimeter, but San Diego has defended the outside shot well all year long. I think this game is a nail biter so will gladly take the six points here today. San Francisco is just 19-37 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less since 1997.

3* PAC-12 POWER PLAY on Utah + over UCLA

Utah is still being undervalued from last year's terrible season, but this squad has improved and has been a money maker at the pay window going 9-2 ATS. They have played three pretty good teams in BYU, Arizona State, and Arizona and while they lost all three, it was only by a total of seven points when the odds had them as a combined 40 point underdogs in those games. Plus, they were all on the road and they get the Bruins at home.

UCLA has won seven in a row and is now 12-3 on the year, but the Utes are 50-31 ATS at home when playing a team with a record above 60% and 14-3 ATS at home when playing a team with a 80%+ mark. They haven't played a true road game yet, but have yet to cover on a neutral floor, losing to Georgetown by 8, beating Georgia by 4 as 12 point favorites, losing to San Diego State by 9, and only beating Texas by 2 as 6.5 point favorites.

The value is with the home underdog here tonight.

3* VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Arizona+

Northern Arizona has a bad record and a bad margin of defeat, but that is largely due to playing some stiff competition on the road. This team lost by 43 at Arizona, 47 at Colorado and by 30 at BYU. Obviously Eastern Washington is nowhere near the class of those three teams. This squad has been pretty competitive outside of those three teams so I think they are under-valued in this spot.

The Eagles have been struggling lately, losing six of their last seven games both SU and at the pay window. Their only cover was last time out when they lost by two as a three point dog to Montana State, a team N. Arizona beat by seven in the middle of December. Eastern Washington is 5-14 ATS after two or more straight losses the past three seasons.

Eastern Washington is 0-3 against common opponents so far this season, losing by 13 ppg. Northern Arizona on the other hand has gone 2-1. They are the better team and getting five points is too many for them, even with this game on the road.

3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Valparaiso -

Why is a 10-5 team getting points to an 11-5 team at home? Because Valpo isn't just winning they are blowing out their opponents with a 9.2 margin of victory compared to 5.2 for Illinois-Chicago.

Both of these teams have been solid on the defensive end of the floor, but Valpo's edge comes on offense where they are shooting almost 7% higher from the floor than the Flames. The other edge that I like with the Crusaders is with rebounding. This team is pulling down seven more boards per game than their opponents while the Flames are actually getting out rebounded on the season.

Valpo has won the last six games in this series and took Ill-Chicago down by five on the road last year. I think they win by a similar amount here tonight.

3* BLUE CHIP SPECIAL on UNC Wilmington +

These two teams are a little more evenly matched than most people think, but Wilmington has played eight road games so far this season and has yet to win one. That might sound bad, but they actually covered their last five away from home so they are playing tough as a visitor.

James Madison has had a tough stretch here lately. They have lost two games in a row, but they are actually in the strange situation you don't see very often in college basketball of playing their third game in five nights. They haven't had much of a chance to prepare for tonight's opponent.

The Seahawks have struggled on offense this year in scoring just 61 ppg, but James Madison allows their opponents to shoot 45%. I think this is the game they get back on track and pick up a road win.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Western Michigan +

This is a pretty good matchup for the Broncos to be catching 14 points in. Akron is definitely a good team who scores efficiently and plays pretty good defense, but don't sleep on Western Michigan. They have played the tougher schedule to date and have came out looking pretty good at 8-5.

There are two things I love about this underdog. The first is they get to the foul line at a high rate. The team shoots four more three throws a game than their opponents give up, while Akron allows two more free throws per game than their opponents normally take. The other is rebounding. They are dominating the boards against their opponents by nearly 9 more per game. Akron's rebounding numbers are impressive too, but when they shoot at a higher rate that their opponents that is going naturally be the case (defensive boards are easier to grab than offensive.)

The Broncos have wins over South Florida and Oakland. They have been beat up pretty bad by Michigan and NC State, but those two teams are a lot better than the Zips. I don't see Akron winning this game in a rout so I'll gladly take the points.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Toledo +

When a 4-7 team is playing a 9-5 team you know the public is going to be on the favorite, but a closer look at these two teams makes me think this line is a little high here tonight. The Rockets are actually being outscored by only a point a game and five of their seven losses have been by six points or less. This team has only played three home games on the year, so they are at least tested to be competitive when taking to the road.

Kent State on the other hand isn't all that impressive. Sure they have won four games in a row and their last win on 1/2 over Cleveland State is worthy of taking note, but the other three teams they beat were St. Francis, Arkansas State, and Fairmont State. The last two they beat by a total of six points.

I expect Toledo to get to the line a lot tonight and when they do the Rockets shoot 76.6% as a team. They average three more free throw attempts than their opponents normally tie up and Kent gives up three more than their opponents normally take. Roll the dog.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Northeastern +

Northeastern has done a good job in CAA action the last few years but there is one team they have struggled with: Drexel. Last year they lost at home by 8 points and by 18 on the road. Those two losses made it six straight in the series, and I think this Northeastern team is going to be out to take advantage of a Drexel team that isn't as good as the odds makers think.

Senior co-captain Jonathan Lee missed the first nine games of the season with a foot injury but returned to the lineup for the last five games. This team has seen a boost with his return as Lee has posted double figures in each of those games. He is doing it all and I think this line is based off of how the team has looked in the season as a whole, instead of with one of their best players in the lineup.

Another key to this game will be how often Northeastern can get to the line. They are averaging 21 free throws per game against teams allowing only 19, while Drexel is allowing opponents to shoot 21 per game who average only 19. I like teams who can get to the line and convert and Northeastern fits the bill as they shoot 73.5% from the charity stripe.

This is a live dog who has a real chance to win outright on Tuesday.

A couple of systems support our play tonight that say to fade a home team off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more if they have a losing record on the year. This system is 48-19 (71.6%) the last five years. Drexel is also 0-7 ATS as a favorite this season and 2-9 ATS the last two years against teams who foul less than 17 times per game.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Appalachian State +

Wofford is one of the worst offensive teams around, putting up just 58.9 ppg on 38.6% shooting, but they are excellent on the defensive end of the floor holding teams to 59.6 ppg. How do they do it? By holding opponents to just 30.2% from the 3-point line and by cleaning up the boards.

App State though does not shoot a lot of three pointers so I'm not as concerned about the perimeter defense. Instead I'm looking at a team that scores 72.6 ppg against opponents who allow 72 and see an above average offense who can outscore a team that struggles to produce points.



These two teams enter this game in completely different directions. Wofford has played a tough schedule and lost big to Virginia and Tulane. While losses were expected losing by 35 and 14 can deflate your confidence. They haven't shot better than 36.2% in their last three games so it's not like they can be confident shooting the ball.

App State on the other hand played a couple of bunnies the last two times out in Presbyterian and Milligan, but took care of the first by eight and the latter by 20. I'll take the points with the confident team here tonight.

A couple of systems support our play that say to take road underdogs of more than 3.5 points off two or more straight wins who have won less than 40% of their games on the year. This system is 50-22 (69.4%) the last five seasons. App State is also 12-4 ATS the last two years against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.

3* Heavy Hitter on Hofstra +5 over Georgia State

Hofstra hasn't played since January 1st so they have had plenty of time to prepare for this game against Georgia State. You know that they worked hard this week in practice as they are out for revenge against a team that beat them by 16 points on their home floor last year and by 35 points in the first round of the CAA Tournament in March.

Neither one of these teams is very good, the Pride have lost eight in a row and five of six at the pay window while Georgia State broke a five game losing streak with a win over James Madison on Saturday. It was the first time in seven tries they had covered as a favorite this year.

I'll take the points with the home dog who will be out for revenge in this one.

4* Heavy Hitter on Towson +9.5

Drexel put a beating on Towson last year at home by a score of 60-27, but these two teams have been heading in different directions ever since. Drexel has been hurt by the injury to Chris Fouch, who broke his ankle in the Penn game, the team is just 3-11 ATS since he's been out of the lineup.

Towson has pulled off ATS wins in four of their last five games. It all started when they played at Georgetown and nearly pulled off the upset, then played Temple tough next time out. Their last two lined games came at Oregon State and at UNC-Wilmington were they pulled off upset wins. You can't sleep on this team as everyone remembers their one win from a year ago and assumes they are still one of the worst in college basketball. They aren't and they are going to want to make a statement here today against a conference rival.

A solid system backs our play that says to take double digit road underdogs who are off an upset win as a road underdog if they still have a losing record on the season. Since Towson is 6-8 they fit this system that is 54-23 over the last five years.

3* High Roller on Kansas State -2.5
Oklahoma State has only played one true road game all year long and that was a loss at Virginia Tech by 10 points. The Cowboys are also coming off a home loss to Gonzaga. Their impressive wins came in the middle of November against Tennessee and NC State but haven't done much to impress since.

Kansas State is playing well under new coach Bruce Weber. Their only two losses were on neutral floors to Michigan and Gonzaga. This team did pull a nice win off over Florida a few weeks ago and I like how they are defending and rebounding the basketball.

I think Kansas State is the better team and should be laying four to five at home here today. I"ll lay the small number.

3* CBB Heavy Hitter on St. Peter's -3 over Manhattan

Neither one of these teams is going to be mistake as good, but I think St. Peter's is better plus they get the home court advantage. Manhattan is just 3-9 on the year and 1-8 on the road. They are scoring just 56.7 ppg against teams that allow 66.4 while shooting 38.8% from the floor. They have played a tougher schedule than St. Peter's but at 3-9 they have only won as favorites of 6 points or more.

You know that St. Peter's is going to be out for revenge in this game. Manhattan beat them up pretty bad twice last year, including by 22 points here on their home floor and by 26 points the first time around.

Both teams played Long Island just a few short weeks ago. Manhattan lost by a score of 48-75 while the Peacocks won 80-67.

Two of the Jaspers best players are dealing with ankle injuries. George Beamon has missed six in a row and is averaging 16.8 ppg this year and Michael Alvarado was sidelined for most of the last game, also with an ankle injury. Without Beamon the team only has one win and that was over Siena.

3* Public Blood Bath on Northern Colorado +13 over Weber State

Weber State has looked pretty good this year while Northern Colorado has not. A close look at the schedule though shows that the Bears have played the tougher schedule so things might not be quite as bad as they seem.

Weber State has six wins in their last seven games and is coming off a 110-45 beating of Southwest. The other teams they beat are E Washington, Portland State, Utah Valley State, and UC-Irvine. Those really aren't that impressive of wins to me, but what it does do is create a few points of value in the ugly underdog.

Favorites of 10 or more points off a 20+ win are just 82-41 ATS the last five seasons when playing a team the is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Take the points here tonight.

3* Marquee Mismatch on Colorado +11.5

A lot of points for Arizona to be laying a pretty good Colorado team tonight. The Buffaloes have surprised me a little bit with their 10-2 start, beating some decent teams like Dayton, Baylor, and Murray State on neutral floors and Fresno State on the road. They do have one ugly 36 point loss to Kansas that I think gives us a couple of points of value here with this line. Most bettors will look at Arizona and Kansas as comparable, see what Colorado do as an 11 point underdog in Lawrence, and run towards the chalk.

Arizona is in a tough spot though. They haven't played since Christmas day, which might create a little rust for their offense. It's always tough coming off the extended layoff on the defensive end too, because no matter how much conditioning you do in practice, being in "game shape" is another story altogether.

Colorado knows they can hang with the wildcats, they beat Arizona twice last season. Once was in Boulder, but the other came in the Pac-12 tournament. I'll take the points here in this one.

3* False Favorite on Louisiana Lafayette +2 over Florida Atlantic

The average bettors looks at this game and sees a team with a worse record getting only two points on the road and is all over Florida Atlantic. However, Lafayette actually has a better scoring margin and has played a tougher schedule.

Plus, Lafayette has owned this series as of late. Last year they won by 12 points at home as 2.5 point underdogs and two years ago they went to Florida Atlantic and won by 8 points as double digit underdogs.

Mike Jarvis is the coach of Florida Atlantic and he is just 16-31 ATS since arriving in the role of a favorite while Lafayette is 49-28 ATS when going on the road playing a team with a losing record. They win the games they know they have a chance in.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Rutgers +16

I think this is a good matchup for a Rutgers team that comes into this game with a 9-2 record on the year and plays tough on the defensive end of the floor. The Scarlet Knights are holding opponents to just 40.5% shooting while converting on 48.3% of their shots this year.

They do a good job of defending the 3-point shot, but don't take a lot of outside shots themselves. This is important since Syracuse does a great job of defending the perimeter, only allowing 26.4% from deep.

The Orange are a pretty solid basketball team, but I'm not scared to take the 16 points here today with a solid team that slows the pace down, shoots a high percentage from the floor and is good defensively.

3* Public Blood Bath on Penn +21

Solid system supports our play on Penn today that says to fade favorites of 20 points or more who have covered the spread in four of their last five. This system is 41-19 (68.3%) over the last five seasons.

Penn is not a good team, but their last two losses weren't quite as bad as they may initially seem. Being an Ivy League school finals are taken seriously, so the team had 12 days off between Villanova and Delaware. You can probably excuse them for being a little rusty in that one. Last time out though this team lost to Wagner, but again that game was played more than a week after Delaware game due to Christmas.

On the other hand you have Butler that has rattled off seven straight wins, including a big win over Indiana back on 12/15. This team has covered four out of five and is prime for a letdown. The way both of these teams have been playing lately sets us up for some nice value here tonight.

3* High Roller on Nebraska +21

Ohio State put a couple of beatings down on Nebraska last year, winning 79-45 in Lincoln and by 31 at home. The Huskers are a better team this year and you can bet those two whoppings were hammered home to them as they prepared for this game against the Buckeyes.

Ohio State on the other hand is in a prime look ahead spot as they travel to Illinois to face the 13-1 Illini in their next game. You think these players are worried about a team they beat by 65 points in two games last year or a team that is up and coming to threaten them for the Big Ten title? I'll take the points here with what should be the hungrier team.

3* Vegas Insider on Providence +18

Couple of good systems supporting our play here say to fade home favorites or 10 or more points after 7 or more wins in a row. This system is 182-118 (60.7%) the last five years. Another system play here is to take underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss as a favorite when they are playing a team that won but didn't cover last time out. This system is 93-50 (65%) since 1997.

Providence is a good team that is showing us some value now that they are coming off two straight losses as a favorite. The one against Brown was particularly bad since they were double digit chalk, but losing by one when your opponent shoots 50% the first game after Christmas isn't that much of a shock to me.

Louisville is a good team that is coming off a tough win against their rivals in Kentucky. It's tough saying they won't be up for their first Big East game of the season, but this is a prime letdown spot for the Cardinals.

3* Marquee Mismatch on UConn +6.5 over Marquette

This is the Big East opener for both teams, so you know each one of them will be giving it their full attention, but the Huskies will have some extra motivation. Marquette came up to Connecticut last February and put a 79-64 beating down on the Huskies, including leading by 14 points at the half so it was never even close.

Fast forward to this season and you'll see UConn off to a very good start at 10-2. Their two losses were by four and six points to New Mexico and NC State. I think both of those teams are a step up in class over Marquette and yet the Huskies are getting 6.5 points here tonight.

Marquette backers are going to look at UConn and see how this team has only covered twice so far, in their first game against Michigan State and in their last against Washington. They also haven't had a true road game yet this year, but that is what is giving us a couple points of value here tonight. The Huskies have played the tougher schedule and the win over Michigan State really stands out to me as this being the better team.

5* CBB No Limit on Harvard +13

This is a great matchup for Harvard as they have made 40% of their 3-point shots on the season and are taking on a St. Mary's team that is giving up 38% from deep range. The other thing Harvard does is get to the line, they are taking 22 free throws a game against teams that allow 19. St. Mary's allows 21 free throws a game against teams that shoot 19. You should see Harvard taking quite a bit of free throws and that's good news as they have hit 74.3% of them on the year.

Another reason to back Harvard is the rest factor. St. Mary's played yesterday against Yale and also played on the 27th against Rhode Island. In the NBA you are used to seeing this kind of thing, but college kids aren't used to this quick of a turnaround and it normally shows with tired legs.

Harvard is a team that slows the pace down quite a bit and in those situations taking double digits is a gift. I'll ride the Harvard Crimson tonight on ESPN2.

3* Heavy Hitter on North Texas +14

This is a few too many points for Middle Tennessee to be laying today even though I like this team quite a bit. They have beat some SEC teams in Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, plus they knocker off UAB by 20 points.

The issue I have is that they can't take advantage of the Mean Green weakness, which is defending the perimeter. Middle Tennessee only shoots 14 deep balls a game. On the other hand they are very good at defending the 3-point shot, only allowing opponents to shoot 27.8%. The problem is North Texas doesn't shoot a lot of three point shots either so that strength is largely wasted.

Middle Tennessee went into North Texas last year as five point favorites and barely walked away with a 2-point win. If you just look at scoring margins and records this line looks about right, but the way these two teams match up favors North Texas so I think they keep it close and get the cover here today.

3* High Roller on Bowling Green +14.5 over Temple

This is a lot of points for Temple to be laying to Bowling Green today. The line is slightly overpriced here since the Owls are coming off the big upset win against Syracuse and they have had 8 days rest until now to think about it.

Temple has shot 40% or less in their last five games and that includes wins over teams like Towson and Alcorn State, and a loss to Canisius.

Bowling Green played host to Michigan State this year and lost by 11. they also went to South Florida and lost by 3. Temple might be a little better than South Florida, but they are nowhere near as good as the Spartans so I don't think they will give Bowling Green their worst loss of the season.

Temple has beaten two teams by 15 points, and that was Buffalo and Alcorn State. They only beat Rice by 14 points and the Owls are awful.

System supporting our play here that says to take double digit underdogs in December who are coming off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 207-126 (62.2%) since 1997. Bowling Green fits the bill after losing by 3 points as 3 point chalk at North Dakota.

3* No Doubt ATS Rout on Southern Illinois -4

Missouri State has been terrible this year, losing eight straight games and only covering once in either tries. Their shooting has been abysmal. In the last five games they have shot 35.5%. They aren't grabbing any of their own rebounds either, in fact they are just nabbing 25 boards per game over their last five.

Southern Illinois isn't great, but they should bring their "A" game today to open Missouri Valley conference play. This is a team that has lost six straight in the series and will be looking for some serious payback on Sunday.

Missouri State is 0-9 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games the let two years and 0-8 ATS after three or more straight losses.

3* Vegas Insider on Old Dominion +2.5

Fairfield is over-valued in this spot here today coming in off four straight covers and a straight up win as an 11 point underdog over St. Joseph's. This puts them in a little bit of a letdown spot as they see Old Dominion on the schedule at 2-10 on the year.

Old Dominion though has played better than their record would indicate and has some momentum of their own off a 2 points win against Virginia, this is the same Virginia team that beat Fairfield by 9 points earlier in the year.

The public sees a 2-10 team and immediately turns their head, but this team has covered in three of their last four games, missing the fourth cover by a single point at College of Charleston. This is a fairly good rebounding team, which makes up for their low shooting percentage and gives them a chance to keep this game close. I think you see the Monarchs pull the upset here Saturday.

3* Major Mismatch on Towson State +15.5

I like taking this many points when a team has played as good of defense as Towson State has this year. This team is holding opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the floor and limited Georgetown to just 29% from the field.

Towson State has won just once in their last six games, but a closer look shows they played Georgetown to a 40-46 game and Temple to a 61-72 final, covering both times.

You look at Oregon State and see their 9-2 record with five straight wins and it can be a little misleading. This team has only played two lined games in their last five and failed to cover against San Diego as 7.5 point favorites and Portland State laying 13.

Nobody is going to be on Towson today, but in a low scoring game if you can catch 15.5 points it's too good of value to pass up.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on St. Joseph's -6.5
Motivated by back-to-back upset losses to Villanova and Fairfield, and further fueled by last season's 5-point loss at Iona, expect St. Joseph's to take care of business this evening.

The Hawks are an impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. The Gaels, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points.

This experienced St. Joe's squad is 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 74.7 to 61.6.

Iona, on the other hand, is 1-12 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game. Lay the number with St. Joe's in this highly motivated spot.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Saint Mary's -16.5
Motivated by Sunday's upset loss at Northern Iowa, St. Mary's will be ready to run up the score at home against an inferior opponent tonight.

The Gaels are 5-0 at home where they are winning by an average of 28.8 points. It is significant that they failed to cover the number last game as they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.

Rhode Island has won its last two against SMU and Georgia State but is still only 13-29-1 ATS in its last 43 games following a SU win. These two victories stemmed from keeping their opponent off the offensive glass, but they'll have a tough time keeping the Gaels off the offensive glass at home where they are averaging 12 offensive boards per game.

Rhode Island is 0-10 ATS after 2 straight games of giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take St. Mary's.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Northern Iowa +2.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats outside Cedar Falls, and further fueled by a 16-point setback at St. Mary's last season, expect Northern Iowa to take care of business on its home floor Sunday.

The Panthers are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, winning these games by an average of 21.8 points. They won't be the least bit intimidated by the Gaels as they have already stepped on the floor with teams like Louisville, Stanford, Memphis and Iowa and UNLV.

N. Iowa does a pretty good job of getting to the foul line at home where it is averaging 21 free throw attempts and connecting on 16 of those. This doesn't bode well for St. Mary's which is giving up 24 free throw attempts in games played away from home this season. The Gaels are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good free throw shooting teams that making 72% of their attempts or better over the last 3 seasons. They have lost by an average score of 71.4 to 65.3 in these contests. Take Northern Iowa.

3* NCAAB SMASH on UL Lafayette -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and out for revenge for last season's embarrassing 19-point loss at Duquesne, expect UL Lafayette to bounce back in a big way this evening.

Duquesne enters off a win over Western Michigan but is a poor 1-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. It is 0-8 ATS in road games when checking in with 2 wins in 3 games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 78.3 to 60.9.

The Dukes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

In addition, the Ragin' Cajuns are on a reliable 65-43 ATS run in games when the line is +3 to -3. Lay the number.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC Greensboro pk
The Demon Deacons can't be trusted away from home against this experienced NC Greensboro squad that returns 4 starters. Wake is 1-3 away from home this season and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 true road games.

The Deacs have been a dead fade when checking in off a win as they are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory. It is also worth noting that college teams headed up by Jeff Bzdelik are 3-12 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more since 1997. In other words, he has been unsuccessful in getting his team refocused following a lopsided victory.

The Demon Deacons are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record.

The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take NC Greensboro.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Denver -19
Off Tuesday's disappointing performance at Wyoming, Denver will be ready to take out its frustrations on Southern Utah when it steps back on its home floor this evening.

Denver's last two home performances have been dominant to say the least. The Pioneers defeated Mercer by 29 on Dec. 5 and Nebraska-Omaha by 35 on Dec. 15. They'll have an excellent opportunity to run up the score against a Southern Utah squad that is 0-5 outside its home gym this season. The Thunderbirds lost these five games by an average of 24.0 points.

Denver has been a terrific investment at home for quite some time. In fact, it is 42-26 ATS in all lined home games under coach Joe Scott. It is 33-21 ATS under his watch as a home favorite or pickem. It is also worth noting that the Pioneers are 19-10 ATS in home games following a road loss under Scott. Bet Denver.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Nicholls State +18
The Colonels are just 1-5 on the season but a matchup with 6-1 Utah State won't have them shaking in their boots. That's because they have already stepped on the floor with Vanderbilt, Missouri and Michigan State. The Aggies haven't faced nearly as challenging of a schedule. Besides, they have been consistently overvalued against teams like Nicholls State that have been outscored by a wide margin. Consider that Utah State is on a 2-11 ATS slide versus teams that are outscored by an average of 12.0 points or more per game. They have won these games on average but only by 13.6 points.

In addition, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot 55.0 percent from the field or higher, provided they are an average shooting team (42.5-45%) and are up against a good defensive team (40-42.5%), are 76-35 ATS since 1997, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. This system basically shows the way oddsmakers tend to undervalue teams following a poor defensive effort when they are matched up against good defensive teams.

Look for this experienced Nicholls State squad to keep this one within the number.

3* NCAAB SMASH on West Virginia -11
Hungry following consecutive defeats, look for the Mountaineers to take their frustrations out on an Oakland squad that has struggled on the highway.

Oakland is just 1-7 SU in games played away from home this season and has lost these by an average of 11.6 points.

The Mountaineers have delivered in the big chalk role as they are 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average score of 82.5 to 56.0. They are also on a 20-3 ATS run as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and have won these contests by an average score of 80.4 to 62.8. Bet West Virginia.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on South Carolina State +26.5
Iowa will have a tough time getting up for this game following back-to-back emotional revenge wins over in-state rivals Iowa State and Northern Iowa. Plus, the Hawkeyes are being overvalued here because they have won four in a row straight up and three in a row against the spread. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are being undervalued because oddsmakers have overreacted to Monday's 102-51 loss to Missouri.

Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points that check in off a blowout loss of 30 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in 3 straight games are 25-6 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 26.8 points on average but have lost by an average of only 22.2 points. Take the points.