Sports Picks & Predictions

At 4 pm, our selection is on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies + the points over George Mason.  The Patriots kicked off their Atlantic 10 campaign with an upset win over St. Joseph's, 85-60 to move their record to 7-7 this season.  They'll try to make it two Conference wins in a row this afternoon.  But the Patriots are a horrid 2-16-2 ATS at home in Conference games, including 0-11-2 ATS as a favorite, if they entered off an upset win in their previous game.  That certainly doesn't bode well for George Mason today.  Nor does the fact that two of my better systems -- with records of 402-247 and 299-187 ATS -- both go against the Patriots today.  Finally, .500 (or worse) Atlantic 10 Conference teams have covered just 56 of 139 Conference home games off an upset win.  Take the points with St. Bonaventure.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds + the points over Weber State.  It's true that the Thunderbirds come into this game off four double-digit losses by 42, 30, 13, and 20 points.  But this string of defeats have triggered two of my best systems, with records of 398-214 and 495-281 ATS since 1990.  Moreover, the Wildcats have not performed well as a favorite, as they've covered just 21 of 54 games.  Take Southern Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Elon Phoenix + the points over the Delaware Blue Hens.  Delaware comes into this game off back to back upset wins over Northeastern and William and Mary.  The Hens have actually done quite well this season as an underdog, as they're 7-2-1 ATS.  But, tonight, Delaware is a big favorite, and it is a relatively poor 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season, including two outright losses as an 11-point favorite (vs. Navy) and as a 21.5-point favorite (vs. Delaware St.).  Delaware is a money-burning 13-23 ATS at home off back to back wins, and it is just 35% ATS since 2007 as a favorite off an upset win.  Finally, Elon falls into 401-246 and 330-196 ATS systems of mine.  Take Elon + the points.  NCAA Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Colorado.  The Sun Devils pulled off a big upset when they defeated then-No. 1-ranked Kansas, 80-76, two weeks ago.  Somewhat predictably, the Sun Devils had a letdown and proceeded to get upset in each of their next two games -- vs. Princeton and Utah.  But off those two upset losses, I look for Arizona State to right its ship this evening.  Since Jan. 17, 2015, the Sun Devils are an awesome 9-0 SU/ATS at home off back to back losses.  And they're 40-19 ATS at home off back to back losses since 2001.  Meanwhile, the Buffaloes are a horrid 11-28 ATS their last 39 road games when installed as an underdog.  Take Arizona State.  Pac 12 Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks have lost just once this season, but find themselves as an underdog at 11-2 Iowa State.  We'll go against Kansas, as Big 12 Conference underdogs that have a better record than Iowa State have covered just 27% away from home vs. the Cyclones.  Take Iowa State.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies + the points over Hofstra.  The Huskies were shocked, 82-80, as a 12-point home favorite last Sunday, while Hofstra won its ninth straight game (and covered its fifth in a row) with a 14-point blowout win over Drexel.  But I look for the Huskies to bounce back on this Saturday afternoon, as NCAA teams off an upset loss as a 12-point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 62% over the past 29 years vs. teams with a winning SU/ATS record that were off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And in this series, the underdogs has gone 13-1-1 ATS since February 23, 2010 if it was getting more than 2 points.  Take Northeastern.  Colonial Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Northern Kentucky Norse minus the points over Detroit.  The Norse were upset on the road by the Oakland Grizzlies on Thursday, while Detroit won its 3rd straight game (and covered its fifth straight) with a 21-point blowout of Wright State.  I look for Northern Kentucky to rebound off its upset defeat, as road favorites are 100%, 10-0 ATS, since 2008 off an upset road loss, if they're playing a conference foe off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Norse.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over Creighton.  Butler comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Florida (we had a big play against Butler in that game) and Georgetown, in which it was a 9.5-point home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are in off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. UMKC and an upset win at Providence.  However, with Butler off an upset home defeat, and Creighton off an upset road win, we will fade the Blue Jays as a road underdog today.  For technical support, consider that in conference games between winning teams, it's been extremely profitable (65.7% ATS) over the last 29 years to play on home favorites off an upset home conference loss, if their opponent was off an upset road conference win.  Throw in the fact that Butler is 17-5 ATS at home off an upset loss to a conference foe, while Creighton is 2-12 ATS its last 14 as a road underdog, and we have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs this afternoon.  Lay the points.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At  7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  The Cards have won and covered each of their last three games, including a 59-point blowout of Delaware State on Saturday (and 27 and 16-point wins prior to that).  We'll grab the points with Ball State in this Mid-American Conference opener, as teams off back to back 25-point wins are 97-69 ATS vs. conference foes, if our team wasn't favored by 3+ points.  And the Cardinals, since 2011, are also 9-0 ATS off a win by 12+ points, if they're getting more than 2 points.  Take Ball State.  NCAA Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over the Monmouth Hawks.  After starting the season with 12 straight losses, the Hawks finally broke into the win column on Saturday with an upset win, as a 14-point underdog, vs. Pennsylvania.  Now, Monmouth gets to take on an Iona team looking to snap its own 7-game losing streak.  Unfortunately for Monmouth, over the past 15 seasons, losing teams, off an upset road win as a 13-point (or bigger) underdog, have covered just 15.4% on the road vs. foes off back to back losses.  Lay the points with Iona.  NCAA HOOPS ROADKILL WINNER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Colorado State.  The Rebels were blown out by 25 points, 97-72, by Bucknell in their previous game, even though UNLV was favored to win.  That game was in Honolulu, in the Diamond Head Classic, on Christmas Day.  And UNLV was 0-2, overall, in that Holiday Tournament.  But UNLV is back home tonight, and I expect it to bounce back strong in front of its home faithful.  Indeed, over the past 14 years, NCAA home teams off 25-point (or worse) upset losses away from home have covered 69% of the time (and 74% if they also lost two games back).  And the Rebels are 8-0 ATS the past four seasons at home off a non-conference loss.  Take UNLV.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners haven't won at Allen Fieldhouse in over 25 years, as they've lost the last 17 meetings.  Of course, Kansas doesn't lose at home to any team very often, as it's 241-13 at home since Bill Self took over as head coach in 2003.  Kansas did lose for the first time this season, on the road two games ago, when it fell, 80-76, at Arizona State.  But it bounced back with a 24-point win (and cover) over Eastern Michigan on Saturday.  I look for Kansas to blow out Oklahoma, as it's 64-1 straight-up and 44-18-3 ATS at home if it wasn't off back to back wins, including 26-6 ATS if it was favored by 15 points or less.  And Oklahoma is a horrid 32-65-2 ATS away from home vs. Big 12 Conference opponents, when not getting double-digits, including 0-9 ATS its last nine.  Take Kansas.  Big 12 Conference Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Cal State Northridge.  The Aztecs threw in a clunker of a game on Saturday, as they were bombed, 82-61, at home by Brown, even though SDSU was favored by 11.  But don't be surprised if Brian Dutcher's men bounce back in a big way on Tuesday in their last non-conference game before the start of the Mountain West season.  Indeed, over the last 29 years, teams off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites have rebounded to cover the point spread 62% of the time in their next game, if they were matched up against a non-conference foe.  Take San Diego State.  NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Monday afternoon, our selection is on the Eastern Washington Eagles minus the points over Idaho State.  The Bengals upset their rival, Idaho, 72-55, on Saturday, and I look for a letdown today, as they're a poor 20-35 ATS off an upset win.  Additionally, this game is cut from a similar cloth to a play we had on Sunday.  Yesterday, we played on Middle Tennessee State, which started the season with 10 straight ATS defeats, and I wrote how that was tied for the 2nd-worst ATS start of any team over the past 29 years.  Well, the Eagles have also been just as historically awful in their start to the 2018 campaign, as they're 0-10-1 ATS in their 11 lined games, thus far!  But the Eagles' lack of point spread success has provided us with decent line value tonight, and we'll lay the points with them in this Big Sky Conference game vs. Idaho State, as I have a terrific 80-41 ATS system on the Eagles in this contest.  Moreover, Eastern Washington has won the last three meetings in this series, and six of the last seven.  And it's 26-13 ATS off a home loss to a conference foe, and 20-12 ATS as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Rhode Island.  Admittedly, the Blue Raiders have been as bad as a team could be to start the season.  They've yet to cover the point spread in any of their 10 lined games, which ranks as the second-worst ATS start (tied with four other schools) of any team to a season in the last 29 years (the worse was in 2007-08 when Austin Peay started with 13 straight ATS losses).  But we'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee today, as College Basketball road underdogs (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS losses, and on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, have cashed 58% ATS since 1990 vs. foes that weren't off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And Rhode Island has won just eight of 26 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Blue Raiders.  NCAA Road Warrior Winner!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Fullerton State Titans minus the points over Portland.  The Pilots come into this game off a 54-39 blowout of Florida A&M.  But that game was at home.  On the road this season, the Pilots haven't had much success, as they're 1-3 SU/ATS thus far.  Even worse:  Portland's covered just three of 20 road games as underdogs of six (or more) points, if they won their previous game by eight (or more) points.  Tonight, the Titans will be looking to snap a 4-game SU/ATS slide.  And since 1990, they've cashed 70.3% as favorites off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Fullerton minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Kentucky.  The Wildcats come into this Bluegrass State rivalry game off a huge upset win over then-No. 9-ranked North Carolina.  Kentucky was a 2.5-point home underdog in that contest, and upset the Tar Heels, 80-72.  Louisville, meanwhile, enters off back to back wins, though it failed to cover the 23-point spread in its last game, a 14-point home win over Robert Morris.  I look for Kentucky to have a letdown off its upset win this afternoon, as .818 (or better) road teams off upset wins have covered just 81 of 211 games vs. .500 (or better) home teams off back to back wins, including 0-10 ATS if our home team failed to cover the spread by more than 6 points in its previous game.  Take Louisville.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Butler.  The Gators and Bulldogs met in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas over the Thanksgiving holiday, and Butler won, 61-54, in that tourney game.  We'll take Florida in the re-match, as this will just be Butler's 2nd true road game of the season.  And the Bulldogs were blown out in their first road game, 64-52, as a 3.5-point favorite at St. Louis.  Over the last two seasons, Butler's an awful 2-9 ATS on the road, including 0-8 ATS against .636 (or better) clubs.  Take Florida.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Austin Peay.  The Governors come into this game, in Fayetteville, off six straight wins, and three straight covers, while Arkansas has dropped its last four games to the point spread.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on red-hot Austin Peay and against the ice-cold Razorbacks.  But consider that SEC Conference home teams, off four (or more) ATS defeats, have covered 71% over the last 29 seasons vs. foes off ATS wins in their last three games.  Additionally, the Razorbacks fall into an 83-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off a point spread defeat.  Take Arkansas to blow out Austin Peay.  NCAA Roadkill Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Indiana State Sycamores + the points over TCU.  The Sycamores and Horned Frogs met just nine days ago in Fort Worth, and the Frogs blew out Indiana State, 90-70.  Let's grab the points with Indiana State in this rematch, as the Sycamores are a terrific 37-19-1 ATS away from home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 19-6 ATS if they lost that previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Take the Sycamores. NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Charlotte.  The Buffaloes come into this game off back to back upset losses to Indiana State and Hawaii and three straight point spread losses, overall.  But Colorado is 22-8-2 off an upset defeat, and 56-31-2 ATS off back to back losses.  And the Buffaloes are 17-4 ATS after losing ATS in each of their three previous games, including 13-1 ATS if they also lost their two previous games straight-up.  Lay the points with Tad Boyle's men.  NCAA Hoops High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Toreros minus the points over Drake.  This game is the Championship game of the Las Vegas Classic tonight, and matches up two teams playing very good basketball.  The Toreros are 10-3 straight-up, and check into tonight's game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Northern Colorado and Washington State.  Meanwhile, Drake is 9-2 SU and 9-1 ATS, including point spread wins in each of its last nine games.  Unfortunately, though, for the Bulldogs, NCAA basketball teams struggle mightily away from home as underdogs of +4 or more points, after covering the point spread in 8 (or more) straight games, as they've cashed just 34.4% of the time since 1990.  Take San Diego minus the points.  NCAA Hoops XMAS Holiday Tourney Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Texas State.  The Razorbacks were upset here, at home, by Georgia Tech, on Wednesday.  We'll take Arkansas to bounce back this afternoon, as it's 9-0 ATS at home off a loss as a favorite (or PK) in its previous game, if it's now playing a non-conference opponent.  And the Razorbacks also fall into 60-19 and 83-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset defeats.  Lay the points with Mike Anderson's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Orange come into this home game vs. the Red Wolves off back to back upset home losses to Old Dominion and Buffalo.  But I love Syracuse to rebound this afternoon, as it's cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) since 1990 as a favorite of -2.5 (or more) points off back to back upset losses.  And ACC Conference favorites of -20 or more points are 39-19 ATS vs. non-conference foes, if our ACC team is off a loss.  Take the Orange

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Fullerton State Titans + the points over Nebraska.  The Titans have dropped their last five games to the point spread, and have lost their last three games, straight-up.  Meanwhile, Nebraska has won and covered its last two games.  Since 1990, though, road teams have cashed 59% off 3+ losses and 5+ ATS losses, if their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, Fullerton falls into 141-56 and 74-37 ATS "contrarian" systems of mine based on their recent losing streak.  Take the Titans + the points.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Southern Utah.  Andy Enfield's Trojans were stunned, 102-92, here at home this past Tuesday by Santa Clara.  However, Enfield's teams have cashed 69% in his career off an upset loss.  And the Trojans might catch a break tonight, as the Thunderbird's second leading scorer -- Dwayne Morgan (13.0 ppg) -- is questionable to play due to pneumonia.  Regardless, we'll lay the points with the Trojans, as they're 34-17 ATS when favored off an upset loss, including 14-2 ATS when priced at -8.5 or higher.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats over Oklahoma.  Last year, the Sooners blew out the Wildcats by 26 points in Norman, OK.  But tonight's game is in Chicago, and I love Northwestern to avenge last season's defeat.  Indeed, Big 10 Conference teams are a perfect 16-0 ATS since 1995 when playing with revenge from a 13-point (or greater defeat) if they're off a 12-point (or greater) win in their previous game, and not getting more than a point in their current game.  Take Northwestern.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over the Furman Paladins.  Furman has been the surprise of this young basketball season, as it's 12-0, and has been ranked among the Top 25 for the last three polls.  And prior to this season, Furman had never before been ranked Nationally in its 106-year men's basketball history!  But all good things must eventually come to an end.  And I expect Furman's undefeated season will vanish tonight in Baton Rouge.  Indeed, undefeated teams with a 9-0 (or better) record, priced from +5.5 to +10.5 points, have cashed just 11 of 41 games vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  And over the last 22 years, SEC Conference teams have cashed 61.1% at home in non-conference games vs. undefeated foes (with a 3-0 or better record).  Take LSU.  Shockeer of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Ole Miss.  The Blue Raiders have gotten demolished in each of their last three games, with losses by 28, 22 and 22 points.  I look for Middle Tenn to bounce back on Friday, as NCAA teams off three SU/ATS losses by 21+ points have cashed 61 of 98 since 1990.  Take Middle Tennessee plus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Grizzlies + the points over Michigan State.  Last season, the Grizz lost to their cross-state rival, 86-73, as an 18.5-point underdog.  But I love Oakland to come within this large point spread tonight, as it is 22-11 its last 33 revenge games, including 13-3 ATS as an underdog.  Take Oakland + the points.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over Cal Irvine.  Since 1990, the Bulldogs are a solid 39-20 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes when priced from -12 to +15 points.  And the Bulldogs also fall into 133-54, 290-184 and 167-85 ATS systems of mine.  Take Butler.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Texas Arlington.  The Mavericks have the unenviable task of playing the Bulldogs immediately after the Bulldogs lost back to back games to Tennessee and North Carolina.  Certainly, Texas Arlington was never going to beat this Gonzaga team, even if the Bulldogs hadn't lost its last two games.  But the fact that it did will surely add to Gonzaga's intensity tonight.  Since 2009, the Zags have cashed 71% off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Even better:  big NCAA home favorites of -20+ points have cashed 70.8% off back to back SU/ATS losses the past nine years.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  College Hoops Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies minus the points over North Dakota St.  The Bison come into tonight's game off back to back wins (1-0-1 ATS) vs. Eastern Washington and Missouri State, while Montana checks in off a loss nine days ago vs. Cal Irvine.  But Montana's loss was away from home, while North Dakota State's two wins were both at home.  Indeed, North Dakota State is 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS on its home court this season.  But away from home, it's a completely different story, as it's 1-7 straight-up and ATS.  Even worse:  the Bison are a horrid 0-20 ATS off back to back wins, when not laying 7+ points!  Meanwhile, Montana's a perfect 3-0 straight-up at home this season.  And it's 14-0 straight-up and 9-3-1 ATS (with one non-lined game) its last 14 at home.  Finally, Montana falls into 50-18 and 59-25 ATS systems of mine, based on its play this season.  Take the Grizzlies.  Perfect 10 Club Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds minus the points over Cleveland State.  Illinois State is just 6-5, but has played a relatively tough schedule thus far.  In their last three home games, they invited teams like BYU (a 92-89 upset win), San Diego State (75-65 loss) and Mississippi (81-74 loss) to Redbird Arena, and were underdogs in all three games.  Sandwiched in between the SDSU and Ole Miss games was a road game at Illinois Chicago, which they also lost (as a 2-point underdog).  So, yes, the Redbirds are on a 3-game losing streak, but they're also 4-4 in their last eight games, even though they were an underdog in ALL 7 GAMES that had a point spread on it (one game was against a Division II school, and non-lined).  Thus, today will be the first time that Illinois State has been a favorite since it played Chicago State in its 3rd game of the season, and just its 3rd game of 12, overall.  The Redbirds are 20-10 ATS off back to back point spread defeats, and they also fall into one of my favorite NCAA systems, which is 83-32 ATS since 1990, which plays on certain teams off 3+ ATS losses.  Take Illinois State.  NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Toledo.  Nick McDevitt's first season as the Blue Raiders basketball coach hasn't gone as smoothly as he had hoped.  The Blue Raiders are 3-7 straight-up, and 0-8 ATS following their 22-point loss at Murray St. last weekend.  Tonight, they'll travel to Toledo, which is 9-1 SU and 5-4 ATS after its upset win at Marshall last Saturday.  Overall, the Rockets have won and covered two straight.  But Middle Tennessee is 59-35 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins, if that foe owns a winning point spread mark.  And the Rockets are a money-burning 3-11 ATS at home off an upset win in their previous game.  Finally, Middle Tennessee State falls into 492-279 and 395-213 ATS systems of mine that play on certain double-digit underdogs off a loss.  Take the points with the Blue Raiders.  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers.  Analysis to follow.

At 7 pm, our selection is on Marshall (Analysis to follow.)

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Murray State.  The Blue Raiders have lost each of their last five games -- both straight-up and against the spread -- including a 79-51 blowout at Vanderbilt on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Murray State is riding a four-game ATS win streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the "ice cold" Blue Raiders.  But consider that NCAA teams on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak have cashed 70.5% since 2004 against foes off back to back covers, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if our team lost by 27+ points in their previous game.  Take Middle Tennessee State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Bowling Green Falcons minus the points over Wisconsin Green Bay.  The Phoenix come into tonight's game off back to back wins and covers, with home wins over Northern Illinois and Belmont.  But Green Bay is an awful 10-28-1 ATS away from home off back-to-back covers, if they were priced as an underdog of +13 or less points, including 0-9 ATS if they covered their previous game by more than 12 points.  Take Bowling Green.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Louisville.  Over the last four years, these two teams have met three times, and the favorite has covered each of the three games.  And, dating back to 1990, they've met seven times, with the favorite covering each of the seven.  I look for Indiana to blow out the Cardinals this afternoon to stretch this streak to eight games in a row.  Key stat:  Indiana is 25-5 ATS at home when favored between -5.5 and -12.5 points vs. non-conference foes, including 8-0 ATS since 2010.  Lay the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Utah State.  The Cougars are 5-4 this season and have lost their last three games (both SU and ATS).  But three of their four losses came on the road, where BYU is 0-3 on the season.  At home, BYU is a solid 5-1 straight-up and 2-1 ATS.  Utah State, meanwhile, is 6-1 this year, but only one of its wins (Cal Irvine) came on its opponent's home court.  Tonight, the Aggies will travel to Provo to battle its Beehive State rival, BYU.  Unfortunately, BYU has dominated this rivalry, of late, with wins in each of the last six meetings (and point spread wins in each of the last five).  Also, the revenge-minded team in this series is a poor 3-13 ATS as an underdog, and 1-8 ATS on the road, so each of those stats does not bode well for Utah State tonight.  Admittedly, Utah State has looked great over its last two games, with blowout wins over Cal Irvine (89-65) and Northern Iowa (71-52).  However, the Aggies are a money-burning 0 for 12 since 1995 after winning their previous game by double-digits, if they're off back to back SU/ATS wins, and their opponent is off back to back SU/ATS losses.   And, finally, BYU is an awesome 31-0 straight-up, and 20-11 ATS as a home favorite, if it is off back to back losses (and it's 8-1 ATS its last nine as a home favorite off 3+ losses).  Take BYU.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over St Peters.  The Tigers started out with five straight wins, but stumbled in their last two games vs. Creighton (87-82 loss) and Nebraska (68-66 loss).  But Clemson will bounce back on Tuesday, as it's 100-59-4 ATS off back to back losses, including 56-26 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win!  And the Tigers also fall into 56-18 and 101-45 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off losses.  Finally, ACC Conference teams are an awesome 41-0 SU and 31-10 ATS off a loss, when favored by 20+ points vs. a non-conference opponent.  Take Clemson.  NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the St Mary's Gaels minus the points over California.  The Gaels are on a 4-game losing streak, including back to back home losses as favorites of -7 and -9 points.  I love the Gaels to snap their slide tonight, as NCAA home teams have cashed 73% in non conference games as favorites of -5 (or more) points, off back to back losses where they were favored by more than 4 points.  Lay the double-digits with St. Mary's.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Florida International.  The Razorbacks have long been one of the best point spread-covering teams at home, including 59-42 ATS vs. non-conference foes, and 72-44 ATS on Saturdays.  Florida International, meanwhile, has been poor vs. non-conference foes, including 4-16, 20% ATS as dogs of more than 11 if their foe was off an 11-point (or greater) win.  This season, Arkansas is 4-1 ATS, and its only point spread defeat came when Montana State sank a 3-pointer to with 21 seconds left to end that game's scoring to cover by two points.  Otherwise, it would be 5-0 ATS this season.  Finally, the Razorbacks fall into a great 134-62 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites vs. foes off a SU win.  I look for Arkansas to move its point spread record to 5-1 with a blowout win tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.   

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys over Northern Colorado.  Last season, the Bears went into Laramie, and upset Wyoming, 91-84, as a 9-point underdog.  But that loss has triggered a great 70-31 ATS revenge system of mine.  Also, the Cowboys are 29-11-1 ATS off a straight-up loss when not laying double-digits.  Take Wyoming to blow out Northern Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays + the points over Gonzaga.  The Gonzaga Bulldogs upset then-No. 1 Duke, 89-87, 10 days ago, in Maui, to ascend to the #1 ranking.  But the Blue Jays are in a great position to hand the Bulldogs their first loss of the season.  Creighton's on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, and also plays with revenge from a 17-point loss suffered at Gonzaga last season.  I love playing on great teams with revenge and strong home courts, and Creighton meets the criteria for all three, as they're 6-1 this season, and have won 35 of their last 42 home games (23-15 ATS).  Take the Blue Jays.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the St Mary's Gaels minus the points over Cal Irvine.  Randy Bennett's Gaels come into this home game off a rare home loss, 74-68, to Harvard.  But the Gaels are an awesome 65-46-2 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes, including 9-0 ATS their last nine off an upset loss, if the Gaels were favored by 6 or more points in the current game.  Take St. Mary's.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Portland.  The Pilots were blown out by Texas State, 91-68, as a 2-point home underdog on Saturday.  But that's been "par for the course" for Portland as it's an awful 13-34-1 ATS as underdogs of 19.5 or less points vs. Non-Conference foes (and 2-16 ATS when priced from +9.5 to +19.5).  Colorado routed Air Force, 93-56, and falls into a 101-48 ATS system of mine based on that victory.  Take the Buffaloes.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers were my preseason pick (at 22-1 odds) to win the College Basketball championship this season.  But this is a great spot to fade Virginia and take the home underdog Terrapins.  Maryland enters off a momentum-building, 37-point blowout win over Marshall (as a 9-point favorite).  And the Terrapins are a terrific 60% ATS at home off wins by 15+ points over the last 29 seasons, including 7-1 ATS as a home underdog!  Take the Terps.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Wofford.  The Gamecocks snapped their four-game ATS losing streak with a 90-55 win over George Washington.   And that blowout win has triggered a very good 'momentum' system of mine which has cashed 63% over the last 29 years.  The Terriers are 4-2, but this will be just Wofford's second road game vs. a Division 1 school.  It failed to cover its first one vs. the Sooners, back on November 18.  And it's a poor 8-20 ATS its last 28 road games vs. teams from major and mid-major Conferences on the regular Vegas rotation (as opposed to schools on the Added board).  Meanwhile, South Carolina is a solid 26-10 ATS as favorites of -6 (or more) points vs. teams from minor conferences NOT in Vegas' regular rotation, including 12-1 ATS vs. foes that had a .500 (or better) record.  Take South Carolina.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Marist.  The Bulls are ranked #22 in the country, with a 4-0 SU record and a 3-0 ATS mark.  Not to be outdone, Marist is now 4-0 ATS (though 1-3 straight-up) after covering the 7.5-point spread in a 64-60 loss at Stephen F. Austin.  So, something will have to give today, with both teams entering the game with 100% ATS records.  We will fade Marist, which is an awful 12-34-2 ATS as underdogs of more than 8 points off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Buffalo is a solid 21-7 ATS its last 28 as a favorite of more than 10 points, including a perfect 13-0 ATS if the Bulls won their two previous games.  Lay the points with Buffalo.  Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Detroit.  Eastern Michigan was blown out on the road, 63-36, by Rutgers, as a 7-point underdog, on Monday.  But the good news for the Eagles is that they are back home this afternoon.  And teams playing at home, or on a neutral court, have cashed 61% the past 29 years off a 23-point (or worse) defeat in which they scored 36 or less points.  Take Eastern Michigan minus the points this afternoon.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over South Alabama.  The Aggies have dropped four straight games.  But three of those losses were on the road to #3-ranked Gonzaga (which just beat #1-ranked Duke), or at neutral sites against quality clubs from Power Conferences like Washington and Minnesota.  This evening, then, will represent a major step-down in class for Texas A&M, and it should be able to re-enter the win column, here at home.  The Aggies have done really well vs. non conference foes when playing at home (or on a neutral court) off a loss.  And if Texas A&M was favored, or getting less than 9 points, then they've cashed 26 of 31 since Dec. 21, 2001.  The Aggies also fall into 82-48 and 56-19 ATS systems of mine which play on certain favorites of more than 8 points off a defeat.  Take the Aggies.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Stanford.  The Gators were upset, 65-60, by Oklahoma last night in this Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament.  But that upset loss has triggered a very good 66% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses.  Additionally, that was the 2nd straight ATS defeat suffered by Florida.  But the Gators are 71-39-4 ATS off back to back ATS losses, including 14-0-1 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes!  Lay the points with Florida.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Canisius.  Jay Wright's men don't look like they will be defending their national championship this season.  Last season, the Wildcats lost just four games the entire year.  This season, after starting 2-0, they proceeded to lose their next two games.  And they failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 28.75 ppg!  But off those two defeats, we'll play on Villanova, as they're 11-3 ATS their last 14 off an ATS loss.  And Villanova also falls into a 62% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a negative point spread differential.  Take the Wildcats.  NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over VMI.  The Keydets are 3-1 on the season after defeating South Carolina Upstate, 78-72, on Tuesday.  But the Wildcats are a Top 10-ranked team, so VMI will be clearly outclassed this evening.  Indeed, VMI's lone loss this year was to ACC Conference member, Pittsburgh (94-55), while its three wins were vs. Goucher, Washington (MD), and South Carolina Upstate.  It's tough even for winning teams to step up in class, as evidenced by the fact that .630 (or better) teams are a poor 41-78 ATS as road underdogs of more than 23 points.  Kentucky comes into this game off a blowout win over another outclassed foe, North Dakota.  Kentucky was favored by 26, and won by 38.  And the Wildcats are 10-3 ATS at home their last 13 when favored by 26+ points.  Take Kentucky to blow out VMI.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers minus the points over Drexel.  The Dragons may be without point guard Kurk Lee (14.5 ppg) today.  He sat out Drexel's 118-41 win over tiny Bryn Athyn (the smallest school in Division III) on Wednesday, but I expect him to play.  Regardless, we will go against Drexel in this cross-town rivalry contest.  Last year, Drexel went into La Salle, and upset the Explorers, 72-70, as a 12-point underdog.  Today's game is also at La Salle, and I love the Explorers to avenge last season's upset loss.  Indeed, over the last 29 seasons, double-digit home favorites have cashed 81% when playing with revenge  from a loss as a double-digit favorite vs. a non-conference foe.  Take La Salle. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs are 2-1 following a 137-60 blowout of Florida Christian College, while the Longhorns are 3-0 after their 65-55 win over Louisiana Monroe, as a 19-point favorite.  It's true that Texas has yet to cash a ticket in Vegas, as it is 0-3 ATS this season.  But I look for that to change tonight, as undefeated teams, with an 0-3 ATS record, have cashed 71% since 1992, if installed as a favorite.  Lay the points with the Longhorns.  NCAA Hoops High Roller Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Marquette.  The Eagles are 2-0, with home wins over Maryland-Baltimore County (67-42) and Bethune-Cookman (92-59).  Unfortunately, the Eagles are an awful 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a double-digit win.  Even worse for Marquette:  it has to play on the road at Assembly Hall vs. a Hoosiers team which won its first two games by a combined score of 184-90.  Off those two wins, Indiana now falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 85-29 ATS since 1990.  Finally, NCAA basketball teams that give up 45 ppg (or less) on defense have covered 73% at home since 1990 vs. foes off a win, if our home team also covered the spread by 10+ points its previous game.  Take the Hoosiers. NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Georgetown.  Brad Underwood's Illini crushed Evansville on Thursday, 99-60, as a 16-point favorite.  They'll now take on Patrick Ewing's Hoyas tonight, in this contest, which is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games.  The Hoyas opened their season with two uninspiring wins at home.  Last Tuesday, they were favored by 30.5 points vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore, but won by just 15, 68-53.  Then, on Saturday, they eked out an 85-78 win vs. Central Connecticut St.  Now, they have to go on the road for the first time this season.  Unfortunately, undefeated teams, off back to back home wins to start their season, have cashed just 37.2% in Game 3 as road underdogs of more than 2 points.  Even worse:  that number collapses to 16% their offense averages 21 points (or more) less than their opponent's.  In nine contests since 1990, Georgetown has won just one game outright as an underdog of 3+ points vs. Big 10 opposition.  Illinois, meanwhile, is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points vs. Big East opponents.  And, over the last 6 seasons, the Illini are 41-1 SU and 28-12 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points, including 10-0 ATS their last 10 when playing with at least 3 days of rest.  Take the Illini.

At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Villanova.  We played on Michigan and against Villanova on Saturday.  And we will do so, once again, tonight.  The Wildcats darted out to a 22-4 lead vs. Kansas, and then kept the Jayhawks at bay the rest of the way, en route to a 95-79 win.  Unfortunately, in the NCAA Tournament, in the Sweet 16 round forward, favorites off wins by more than 15 points have covered 0 of their last 10 vs. lower-seeded opponents.  That doesn't bode well for the Wildcats tonight.  And neither does the fact that underdogs of +6.5 (or more) points have gone 10-0 ATS in the Final Four since 1993 vs. .895 (or better) foes.  Finally, Michigan falls into 49-15, 26-3, 31-4, 15-0 and 18-1 ATS Tourney systems of mine.  Grab the points with the Wolverines.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Villanova.  These two teams were seeded #1 in their respective regions.  But it was Kansas which faced the more difficult road here to San Antonio.  The Jayhawks bested Duke, Clemson, and Seton Hall.  And those three teams rank #3, #14 and #25 in the current KenPom.com rankings.  In contrast, Villanova's last three wins were against Texas Tech, West Virginia and Alabama.  And those three teams currently rank #11, #12 and #55.  Kansas also faced a more difficult schedule throughout the season, as the Jayhawks' schedule ranked as the 2nd toughest in College Basketball this year.  Interestingly, there have been 35 post-season match-ups between two teams seeded #1, and the underdog has cashed 69.6% (23-10-2 ATS), including 11-1 ATS when getting 5+ points, and 10-2 ATS in the semi-final round.  Moreover, Kansas is a super 8-3 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when getting 3+ points.  Finally, the Jayhawks fall into several of my best tournament systems, with records of 31-3, 40-9, 18-1, 24-4 and 155-59 ATS.  Take the Jayhawks + the points.  NCAA Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over North Texas.  We played on San Francisco -3.5 in Game 1 of this best-of-3 series (and won), and then took North Texas -3 in Game 2 (and also won).  Now, for Game 3, the deciding game of this Championship series, we will grab the points with San Francisco.  This is the 11th year of the CBI tournament, and for the ninth time in 11 tourneys, the Championship round has gone a full three games.  In the previous eight tournaments that reached Game 3, the underdog has cashed five of seven (with one push).  We'll grab the points with the Dons, as San Francisco falls into 9-1, 67-35, 33-17 and 33-16 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, North Texas has gone 0-8 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of -4 points or more at home vs. non-conference foes.  Take San Francisco.  CBI Tourney Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Sam Houston State Bearkats + the points over Northern Colorado.  The Bearkats come into this game off back-to-back upset wins over Texas San Antonio and Eastern Michigan.  And that bodes well for them tonight, as teams off back-to-back upset wins have cashed 38 of 63 in the NIT, CBI and Insider Tourneys since 1991.  Additionally, Northern Colorado falls into a negative 72-152 ATS system of mine.  Take the points with Sam Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over San Francisco.  We played on North Texas in both of its home games earlier in this tournament, and were rewarded with two blowout wins over Mercer (96-67) and Jacksonville St (90-68).  We played against North Texas in its next game, which was on the road, and got the cash with San Francisco.  But we'll come right back with the Mean Green at home, tonight, as it's 5-0 straight-up, and 4-1 ATS at home in the post-season, with an average cover by 12.2 ppg.  Meanwhile, San Francisco is a poor 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road in the post-season, including 0-5 ATS when not getting more than 6 points.  Finally, the Mean Green fall into a 60% ATS system of mine.  Lay the points with North Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Mississippi State.  The Nittany Lions have been terrific in the non-conference post-season tournaments over the years, as they've gone 19-5 straight-up and 15-8-1 ATS.  Tonight, in New York, they'll take on a Bulldogs squad which pulled off a huge upset last Tuesday when it went into Louisville, and upset the Cardinals, 79-56, as a 6-point underdog.  We'll go against Mississippi State, as it's a poor 1-11 ATS off an 18-point (or greater) SU/ATS win.  Take Penn State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers come into this game off back to back upset wins over USC (as a 4.5-point underdog) and Oklahoma State (as a 6.5-point underdog).  Unfortunately for Western Kentucky, teams off back to back upset wins, where they were a 4-point (or greater) underdog in each of their two previous games, have cashed just 30% in the NIT Final Four over the past 28 years.  Additionally, Utah falls into a 24-2 ATS Tourney system of mine.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Monday, in Game 1 of the Best-of-3 CBI Tournament Championship series, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over North Texas.  We played on the Mean Green in each of their last two games -- both at home -- and they rewarded us with two huge blowouts.  They upset Mercer, 96-67, as a 2.5-point home underdog last Monday.  And then they smashed Jacksonville St, 90-68, as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday.  But North Texas isn't just off two blowouts.  It also upset South Dakota, 90-77, as an 11.5-point underdog to start this tournament.  Thus, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in their last three games by 24.5, 31.5 and 21 points (+77 points combined), which represents the 2nd best stretch of three straight covers since 1990.  Indeed, only Georgia, in 1990, had a better stretch of 3 ATS wins (of 118,955 eligible games in my database) when it covered by 28, 39 and 18.5 points (+85.5 points combined) in three straight games.  Not surprisingly, Georgia failed to cover its next lined game, when it fell to Vanderbilt, 75-74, as an 8.5-point favorite.  I also look for North Texas to come up short tonight, as San Francisco is 19-9-1 ATS when matched up against opponents off 3 straight wins that were also on a 3-game ATS win streak.  And home teams are 7-2 ATS since 2009 in this CBI Tournament in the opening game of the Best-of-3 Championship series.  Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Duke.  The #1-seeded Jayhawks are off back to back ATS losses in their victories over Seton Hall and Clemson.  But #1 seeds are 22-8 ATS after not covering the spread in each of their two previous games.  Additionally, since 1991, the Duke Blue Devils are 0-5 SU/ATS in the NCAA Tournament vs. foes that failed to cover the point spread in their previous game (including three outright upset losses as a favorite of -13.5, -5.5, and -3 points).  And Kansas is 32-13 ATS in the post-season off a point spread defeat.  Take the Jayhawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Michigan.  Leonard Hamilton's #9-seeded Seminoles have already upset #1-seed Xavier and #4-seed Gonzaga to reach this Elite 8 round.  Now they will take on the #3-seeded Wolverines.  We'll grab the points with FSU as NCAA teams seeded #4 (or worse) have gone 29-8-2 ATS in this Elite 8 Round when not laying 5+ points against foes seeded #3 or better.  But that's not the best part:  if our 'play-on' team was an underdog of +4 or more points in its previous game (Florida State was +6), then our 29-8-2 stat zooms to 17-1 ATS since 1991.  Take the Seminoles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Loyola Chicago.  The 11th-seeded Ramblers are off three straight underdog wins to start this tournament, while 9th-seeded Kansas State has won twice in the underdog role, including an upset of Kentucky, as a 5-point dog, on Thursday.  We'll lay the points with the Wildcats today, as teams off upset wins as 4.5-point (or greater) underdogs in the Sweet 16 round have gone 20-3 ATS in the Elite 8 round since 1991.  Additionally, Kansas State falls into 67-30, 127-66, and 24-3 ATS tourney systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Elite 8 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Clemson.  The Jayhawks won by 4 points vs. Seton Hall last weekend (as a 4.5-point favorite), while the Tigers blew out Auburn, 84-53.  And that was Clemson's 2nd straight double-digit win in this tournament.  Overall, Clemson's covered four straight games.  But we'll go against the Tigers tonight, as NCAA Tourney teams off wins by more than 16 points, and back to back wins and covers, overall, have been awful -- going 71-115-4 ATS since 1994.  Moreover, Clemson's covered just 7 of 24 games in the post-season away from home, if their opponent was off an ATS loss.  Take Kansas.  ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Florida State.  Our selection on the team to win the NCAA Tournament this season was Gonzaga, at 25-1 odds.  It has done nothing to disappoint, as it's reeled off wins over NC Greensboro and Ohio State, and is just one of seven teams originally ranked among the top 16 teams that have made this Sweet 16 round.  On Thursday, Gonzaga will take on a Florida State team that upset #1-seed Xavier, 75-70.  Unfortunately for the Seminoles, single-digit underdogs have cashed just 25 of 65 in the Sweet 16 round off an upset win, provided their opponent wasn't off an upset win.  And the Seminoles have also covered just 11 of 36 post-season games off a post-season win.  Take Gonzaga. Sweet 16 Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Kentucky.  John Calipari's men have won nine of 10, including their last five in a row.  And they've covered their last five games, as well.  But we'll play against Kentucky on Thursday, as favorites of less than nine points have covered just 23% in the NCAA Tourney over the past 28 years off 5 straight wins and covers, if their opponent wasn't off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Moreover, Kentucky's a horrid 2-13-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, if it's off 4+ wins and 3+ covers, including 0-9 ATS from the Sweet 16 round forward.  Take Kansas State + the points.  NCAA Tourney High Roller.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the St Mary's Gaels minus the points over Utah.  We played on Utah in its game on Monday vs. LSU, and were rewarded with a 95-71 blowout win.  Unfortunately for the Utes, it's covered just 13 of 40 post-season games off a win.  Meanwhile, St. Mary's is an awesome 83-47-3 ATS as a favorite of 20 points or less in non-conference games.  Lay the points with St. Mary's.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Torerros minus the points over Northern Colorado.  The Torreros will be playing their 3rd straight home game, and being able to stay at home, and avoid travel is a huge advantage in these post-season tournaments.  Indeed, over the past 15 years, home teams have gone 50-18 SU and 44-23-1 ATS at home in the post-season (non-conference) tournaments when not laying 6+ points, if they won at home their two previous games.  San Diego also falls into 72-29 and 77-39 ATS Tourney systems of mine.  Lay the points with San Diego.  Insider Tourney Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Jacksonville St.  We played on North Texas in its win Monday, at home, vs. the Mercer Bears.  North Texas was installed as a home underdog, but blew out Mercer, 90-67.  And that was the second straight high-scoring win for the Mean Green, as it also blew out South Dakota, 90-77, on the road, in Vermillion.  I won't step in front of this North Texas freight train, as NCAA teams off back to back wins, in which they scored 88+ points, have gone 91-58 ATS as a favorite in the post-season since 1991.  Take North Texas.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Western Kentucky.  The Cowboys have been among the best teams in non-conference games, and especially when favored.  Indeed, dating back to 1991, Oklahoma State is 125-76 ATS as a favorite vs. non-conference foes.  But that's not the best part.  If our play-against team (here, Western Kentucky) is playing back-to-back road games, then our 125-76 stat zooms to 21-5 ATS.  Take Oklahoma State.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Western Kentucky.  The Trojans won their opening round NIT Tourney game, 103-98, vs. NC Asheville last Tuesday, while Western Kentucky topped Boston College, 79-62.  That bodes well for USC tonight, as Tourney favorites of -2.5 (or more) points, off a post-season win in which they scored 100+ points, have gone 54-26-3 ATS since 1991.  Lay the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over LSU.  Utah's always had one of the best home courts in College Basketball, as it's covered 56% at home over the past 28 seasons.  Of course, there's nothing wrong with 56%.  But we can greatly improve that number by solely focusing on home games where the Utes own a win percentage greater than .570, and are priced from -3.5 to -10.  With those parameters applied, our 56% stat zooms to 67-23, 74.4% ATS.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Mercer.  The Mean Green had a most impressive opening round game in this CBI Tournament.  It was a double-digit road underdog at South Dakota, yet blew out the Coyotes, 90-77.  North Texas has now been installed as a home underdog.  And home underdogs (or PK) have cashed 65% in the post-season since 1990 off a game where they covered the spread by more than 9 points.  Take the Mean Green.

At 7:30 pm, in the College Insider Tournament, our selection is on the Sam Houston State Bearkats + the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Bearkats were given a bye into this 2nd round of the Insider Tournament, while Eastern Michigan won its opening round game vs. Niagara.  The Eagles have won now won eight of their last nine, and have covered their last eight games.  But we'll fade Eastern Michigan tonight at Sam Houston St, as teams playing away from home in the non-conference post-season tournaments have cashed just 13 of 44 games when they were on a 6-game (or better) ATS win streak, and their opponent was off a point spread defeat.  With Sam Houston State, indeed, off an ATS loss in their final Southland Conference game (a 10-point loss to SE Louisiana), we'll grab the points with the Bearkats.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Marshall.  This is a huge rivalry, as these two schools are located in the same state, 158 miles apart.  They actually played each other for 38 straight seasons, until two years ago, when the series was ended by WVU's administration.  We will fade the Thundering Herd, who pulled off an upset to win the Conference USA Tourney, and then another upset against Wichita on Friday.  Meanwhile, WVU was upset by Kansas in the Big 12 title game.  One of the things I love to do is play on teams in the NCAA Tourney's 2nd round that lost their Conference title game when they're matched up against foes off a SU/ATS win.  Such teams have cashed 67% since 1990.  Take the Mountaineers minus the points.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers.  UMBC upset Virginia as a 20.5-point underdog on Friday.  That was the 2nd biggest post-season upset of all time (only Missouri's defeat to Norfolk State, as a 21-point favorite in 2012, was worse), and ranked among the 42 greatest upsets of the past 28 years (whether in the regular season or the tournaments).  For those who might be curious, the biggest upset since 1990 occurred in 2007 when Gardner-Webb went into Lexington, and upset the #23-ranked Kentucky Wildcats, 84-68, as a 26-point underdog.  But off this big emotional win, we'll fade the Retrievers this evening.  Indeed, underdogs of 9+ points off an upset win against an .640 (or better) opponent in Round 1, have covered just 23% in Round 2 since 2001!  Take Kansas State to blow out Maryland-Baltimore County.  2nd Round Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Clemson.  It's true that that Auburn Tigers have dropped their last five to the point spread, and are 2-3 in those five games, while Clemson is on a 3-game ATS win streak.  But if one looks at the BIG picture, the Auburn Tigers have had a great year, both SU and ATS, as they are 26-7 straight up, and 18-12 ATS.  And College Basketball favorites of 14 or less points, off 5+ ATS defeats, that don't have a losing ATS record on the season, have covered 92% since 1990 vs. foes off 3 ATS wins, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last four seasons.  Take Auburn. NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The  Blue Raiders blew out Vermont by 27 to open their NIT Tourney.  However, since 2000, NIT Tourney underdogs off a win by 20+ points have cashed just 26.3%.  Take Louisville minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on Marquette minus the points over Oregon.  Marquette falls into one of my best NIT Tourney systems, which is 55-15 ATS since 1991.  Also, the Eagles are a super 6-2 ATS at home in the post-season.  Take Marquette.

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Syracuse.  The Orange pulled off a big upset against Texas Christian on Friday.  And that was Syracuse's 2nd straight upset win in the Tournament, as they also downed Arizona State in the "First Four" play-in game.  Unfortunately for Syracuse, teams off back to back upset wins have been horrid in Round 2 over the years, as they've cashed just 27% since 1990.  Lay the points with Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bulls upset Arizona, 89-68, as a 9-point underdog on Thursday, 89-68.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, underdogs of more than 3 points that covered the pointspread by 25+ points in Round 1, have covered just 25% in the NCAA Tourney since 1990.  Take Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Charleston.  Auburn dropped its last four games to the point spread (and lost three of those four, straight-up).  And its SEC Tourney loss to rival, Alabama, was its worst defeat of the season, as it was blown out by 18, 81-63, and failed to cover by 24.5 points.  It also was its worst loss as a favorite in more than 10 years.  We'll lay the points with Auburn, as NCAA Tourney teams have cashed 79.1% over the past 10 years after failing to cover the spread by 21+ points in their previous game.  Take the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Bucknell.  This will be a tough venue for the Bison, as the game's being played in Detroit, so the crowd will be firmly in Michigan State's corner.  The Spartans were upset by their rival, Michigan, in the Big 10 Tourney semi-finals.  However, Tom Izzo's men typically bounce back off losses, as they're 176-71 straight-up, and 124-96-4 ATS off a loss the past 28 seasons (including 11-5-1 ATS after losing in the Big 10 Tourney).  Meanwhile, Bucknell easily won the Patriot League this season, by a whopping four games over its closest competition (Colgate).  And that lack of competition won't serve Bucknell well this evening, as it makes a huge step-up in class by playing Michigan State, which is one of the country's best teams.  Bucknell has won just 2 of its previous 23 meetings vs. a Big 10 Conference member school, while MSU is 23-13 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off back to back ATS wins.  The Spartans also fall into a 52-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain top-level teams to bounce back from conference tourney losses.  Take Michigan State. NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Murray State.  The Mountaineers were upset by Kansas in the Big 12 Conference title game, while the Racers pulled off an upset vs. Belmont to win the Ohio Valley Conference.  That bodes well for WVU, here, as teams off an upset loss in their Conference championship game have bounced back to cover 70% of the time since 1990 when they were matched up against a foe which pulled off an upset to win its conference championship.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:45 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Lipscomb.  The Tar Heels lost the ACC Conference championship game to #1-ranked Virginia, but I look for them to bounce back this afternoon.  Indeed, the losers of the ACC Title game have done well in their initial game following that loss, as they've cashed 62% since 1997.  Even worse for Lipscomb:  it topped 100 points in its win at Florida Gulf Coast to win the Atlantic Sun tourney.  But underdogs (or PK) have covered just 40% over the last 28 years in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tourney after scoring 100+ points.  Take North Carolina.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Cincy Bearcats minus the points over Georgia State.  The Panthers have won and covered four straight games heading into this match-up in Nashville, while Cincinnati's on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the double-digits with the red-hot Panthers.  But over the last 28 years, teams on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak have actually burned money in the NCAA Tourney when playing a foe off back to back ATS defeats, as they've covered just 33%.  Lay the point with the Bearcats.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Wichita State Shockers minus the points over Marshall.  The Thundering Herd upset Western Kentucky, 67-66, as a 6-point underdog to win their Conference.  But that upset win has placed Marshall in a nasty 6-64 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that got the $$$ as underdogs.  Moreover, Wichita is on a six-game ATS losing streak, but favorites off 6 ATS losses have covered 83% in the NCAA Tourney vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take Wichita.  Opening Round Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:40 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Cal Fullerton.  The Titans upset Cal Irvine, 71-55, to win the Big West Conference Tournament, while Purdue was upset, 75-66, by Michigan in the Big 10 Title game.  And that was the 3rd straight ATS loss by Purdue.  The good news, though, for the 2nd-seeded Boilers is that Top 2-seeded teams, off 3 ATS losses, have cashed 75% in the NCAA Tourney as double-digit favorites vs. foes off upset wins.  Lay the points with Purdue. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies + the points over Michigan.  The Wolverines upset Purdue to win the Big 10 Title, and have been installed as a double-digit favorite in this 1st round game vs. Montana.  We'll fade Michigan, as top 4-seeded teams have gone 1-10 ATS as favorites of -11 or more points in the NCAA Tourney since 2000 off an upset win.   Take Montana. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over St Bonaventure.  The Bonnies upset UCLA in the play-in game on Tuesday, to run their season record to 26-7, while Florida was upset by Arkansas last Friday, and dropped to 20-12.  We'll lay the points with Florida, as teams off upset wins (like St Bonaventure) have cashed just 39 of 96 games in the NCAA Tournament vs. foes off upset wins, including 7 of 28 if our play-against team (here, St Bonnie) owned a better win percentage than its opponent.  Take the Gators.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over South Dakota State.  Ohio State was upset by Penn State in the Big 10 Tourney, while South Dakota State punched its ticket to the Big Dance with an upset win over rival, South Dakota, in the Summit League Championship game.  However, since 1990, Big 10 teams have cashed 79% in the post-season, if they were off an upset loss, and their opponent was off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Loyola-Illinois.  The Ramblers have won 10 in a row, but have been installed as an underdog vs. the Hurricanes.  Unfortunately for Loyola, teams on 9-game (or better) win streaks that are underdogs in the first round of the NCAA Tourney, are a soft 32-54-1 ATS since 1990.  Take Miami.