Sports Picks & Predictions

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Seton Hall Pirates minus the points over Yale.  Kevin Willard's Pirates got their campaign off to a promising start with a 93-49 victory over the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, as a 27-point favorite.  Now, they'll take on Yale, which should, once again, compete for the Ivy League title (which would be its 5th in 7 seasons).   The Pirates are 13-0 vs. Ivy League foes since 1990, and have gone 9-0 SU/ATS in their nine games against Ivy Leaguers since 2006.  The average margin of victory has been 18.2 ppg, while they've covered the spread by an average of 7.55 ppg.  Seton Hall is also 48-31-1 ATS its last 80 non-conference games, including 24-12-1 ATS here, at home.  But the clincher for us this afternoon is that Seton Hall is 12-0 ATS its last 12, and 22-2 ATS its last 24, vs. foes off a SU win, following a game where Seton Hall covered the spread by 12+ points, including a perfect 12-0 ATS here, at home.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Portland Pilots minus the points over the Alcorn State Braves.  The Pilots come into this game off a 122-78 blowout of Willamette, and now will welcome the Braves to Chiles Center.  The Braves have started their 2021-22 campaign in the Pacific Northwest, and visited the cities of Pullman and Seattle, Washington earlier this week.  They lost those games to Washington State (85-67) and Seattle (69-66), and will finish this stretch with a game at #1-ranked Gonzaga, in Spokane, on Monday.  We will lay the points with Portland tonight, as the Pilots have gone 35-8 SU and 29-13-1 ATS when laying more than 3 points to non-conference foes.  Also, the Braves fall into negative 26-74 ATS and 43-98 ATS systems of mine, based on the stats of their first two games.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Evansville.  The Bruins lost their season opener, 92-80, to Ohio, as a 4-point favorite.  But that game was on the road; the Bruins are now back home where they've gone 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS since Jan. 4, 2020.  Belmont is also 64% ATS off a double-digit loss when matched up against non-conference foes, and it's 4-1 ATS its last five home openers.  Meanwhile, Evansville is a woeful 14-27-1 ATS away from home vs. foes off an upset defeat, including 1-9-1 ATS if their opponent lost its previous game by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with Belmont.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the St. John's Red Storm minus the points over Saint Peter's.   The Peacocks are 0-1 following their loss at VCU on Tuesday, while the Johnnies are 1-0 after walloping Mississippi Valley State, 119-61, as a 44-point home favorite.  That SU/ATS home win extended St. John's point spread success at home to 24-11 ATS their last 35, and they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 non-conference home games.  Even better:  Big East teams are 42-21 ATS in non-conference games following a win by 44+ points.  Take St. John's minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers minus the points over Florida Gulf Coast.  The Ramblers opened their season with a 103-45 victory over Coppin State, and will now welcome another squad of Eagles to Joseph J. Gentile Arena.  Florida Gulf Coast also won its season opener in blowout fashion, 94-57, vs. Florida National.  But the Ramblers are 24-6 ATS after holding their previous opponent to less than 50 points, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes that average more than 75 ppg.  Take Loyola-Chicago minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies minus the points over Coppin State.  The Eagles will be playing their fourth game in five days when they take on UConn in this early game on Saturday (after playing a 7 pm game the night before).  And they've lost their first three by an average of 91.67 ppg, while failing to cover the spread by an average of 8.33 ppg.  Meanwhile, UConn will be well-rested following its 99-48 pasting of Central Connecticut St on Tuesday, as a 34.5-point favorite.  And the Huskies also fall into a 150-95 ATS 'momentum' system of mine, based on its 51-point win.  We will lay the big number here, and go against a road-weary Eagles squad.  Take Connecticut.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Villanova.  This is a great early season match-up between two of the top four teams in the country.  We'll lay the points with Mick Cronin's Bruins, as they're 7-0 ATS their last 7 (and 11-1 ATS their last 12) games vs. non-conference foes.  And Villanova is a dreadful 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS as a non-conference underdog of +3 (or more) points!  Take UCLA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Sam Houston State.  The 'Huskers lost their opener to Western Illinois, 75-74, but I look for them to rebound tonight in front of their home faithful.  Nebraska is a solid 24-12 ATS as a home favorite of 13 or less points vs. non-conference foes, if Nebraska was off a loss in its previous game.  Additionally, when playing at home, the Big 10 Conference has dominated WAC Conference foes, as Big 10 teams have cashed 67% over the last 32 years, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when priced from -7 to -13 points.   Take the Cornhuskers.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Radford.  The Cavs were upset here, in Charlottesville, 66-58 by Navy on Tuesday night.  But Virginia typically bounces back off losses under Tony Bennett, and especially off non-conference defeats.  Indeed, Virginia's covered its last nine in that situation, and is 19-3-1 ATS since he took over the coaching reins in 2009.  Moreover, ACC Conference teams off a home upset loss, have cashed 78% as a home favorite vs. .550 (or better) non-conference foes.  Take Virginia.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Niagara.  The Purple Eagles will pay a visit to Ohio State in Columbus this evening, but they've had scant success vs. opponents from the elite conferences (ACC, Big 10, Pac 12, SEC, Big 12), as they've gone 1-17 straight-up, and 4-9-1 ATS.  Even worse, the Purple Eagles fall into a negative 47-96 ATS system of mine based on their season opening loss to Xavier, on Tuesday.  Take the Buckeyes.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Hoosiers have dominated schools from the Mid-American Conference, as they're 24-1 straight-up, and 17-8 ATS, including 7-2 ATS when laying 20+ points.  Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has won just 1 of its 20 games vs. Big 10 foes since 1990, and has covered just one of its last 11.  Take the Hoosiers minus the points.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Northern Arizona.  The Lumberjacks were blown out in their first game, 81-52, by Arizona.  And they'll now travel to Seattle to play another Pac-12 team -- Washington -- which also lost its season opener, on Thursday.  Northern Arizona has now lost 14 straight games to Pac-12 conference foes, and has gone 4-10 ATS in those games. That doesn't bode well for Shane Burcar's men tonight.  Nor does the fact that Washington is 8-0 ATS its last eight non-conference games off an upset loss as a 5-point (or greater) favorite.  Lay the points with the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays minus the points over Kennesaw St.  This will be the 3rd meeting in as many seasons between these schools.  Last year, the Blue Jays blew out Kennesaw, 93-58, as a 37.5-point favorite.  And two years ago, the Blue Jays won by 26, as a 25.5-point favorite.  The Owls lost at Iowa State, 84-73, as a 15-point underdog to open their 2021-22 campaign, and will travel to Omaha to take on the Blue Jays tonight, who opened with a 90-77 win (though an ATS defeat) against Arkansas-Pine Blue.  We'll go against the Owls, as they're 1-6 ATS off a point spread win, and 16-30 ATS as a road underdog.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are an awesome 60-3 SU and 43-20 ATS at home when favored vs. a non-conference foe, including 12-1 ATS their last 13 off a point spread defeat.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers minus the points over Vermont.  The Panthers lost here, at home, to Nicholls State, 62-58, on Tuesday.  Northern Iowa shot just 30% from the floor, while the Colonels hit 49%.  I look for Northern Iowa to bounce back tonight, as the Panthers are 4-0 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes if the Panthers were off an upset loss.  Likewise, since 2010, Missouri Valley Conference teams are 40-3 straight-up, and 33-9-1 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes, if our MVC team was upset in its previous game.  Northern Iowa is also 61-36 ATS as a home favorite of less than 7 points, while Vermont has covered just 20% vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Northern Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Gonzaga.  I think it's safe to say that we should throw out UCLA's last four Pac-12 games (all losses) to end its conference season.  And that's because Mick Cronin's men have been a completely different animal in this tourney.  They've defeated Michigan State (86-80), BYU (73-62), Abilene Christian (67-47), Alabama (88-78) and Michigan (51-49).  But look more closely at their wins over Michigan State and Alabama, and you'll notice that both went into overtime.  In regulation, UCLA held Michigan State to 77 and Alabama to 65.  Thus, in this tournament, the Bruins have given up an average of 60 points per game in regulation.  That's impressive, in and of itself.  But then consider the teams that UCLA has faced.  Their opponents included Michigan, which ranks 9th in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency rankings; BYU, which ranks 20th; and Alabama, which ranks 29th.  Yet through regulation time, UCLA held Michigan to its lowest offensive output of the season, BYU and Abilene Christian to their 2nd-lowest, and Alabama to its 5th-lowest.  Certainly, Gonzaga is another animal, altogether.  The Bulldogs rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and have yet to lose a game.  Indeed, Gonzaga has only played one team which came within single-digits (West Virginia, 87-82).  Still, I believe the points will be valuable today.  And, for technical support, consider that NCAA Tourney favorites of more than 10 points, off back to back double-digit SU/ATS wins, are a horrible 8-32 ATS against foes seeded #15 (or better).  Finally, in the NCAA's Final Four, favorites of more than eight points have gone 1-7 ATS since 1991, with only North Carolina (-10, 83-66) covering against Syracuse in 2016.  Take the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over the Baylor Bears.  The Cougars were an ATM Machine in Vegas during the regular season, as they went 18-8 ATS (.692 ATS pct.), and covered the point spread by an average of 5.32 ppg.  Those two marks ranked #8 and #4 of the 68 teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament (in contrast, Baylor ranked #25 and #35 in those metrics).  It took a last-second three-point shot by Oregon State to hand the Cougars a point spread defeat in their previous game.  But Houston is 8-0 ATS its last eight, and 28-8 ATS its last 36 off a point spread defeat!  The Cougars are also 13-2 ATS their last 15 as an underdog of less than 7 points, while Baylor is a wallet-busting 10-19 ATS vs. .866 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Finally, Houston gives up just 57.5 points per game, and ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball ratings (in contrast, Baylor ranks 28th).  And the Cougars also prefer to play at a much slower pace than Baylor, as Houston's games average just 134.1 ppg -- much less than the Bears' 148.5 ppg.  That bodes well for the underdog, as in the semi-final round of the NCAA Tourney, teams with defenses that give up 63 or less points have covered 73.6% if they weren't favored by 4+ points!  Moreover, underdogs seeded #5 (or better), that average 134.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 61.9%, including 8-2 ATS in the semi-final round.  We'll take the points with the defensive-minded underdog in this game.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Gonzaga.  This season, I've largely avoided playing on or against Gonzaga.  I only played on them once -- and won when they blew out Norfolk State in the opening round of this Tournament.  And I also only played against them once this season (and lost), as I didn't think there were many teams that had the right mix of players to compete with Gonzaga.  But USC is one of the teams that CAN compete with the Bulldogs.  So, we'll grab the points with the Trojans tonight.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 22 seasons, in the ELITE EIGHT round of the tournament, .700 (or better) teams seeded #4 (or worse) are a perfect 16-0-1 ATS vs. .800 (or better) opponents!  And, even better, USC comes into this game off 3 dominant wins over Drake (72-56), Kansas (85-51) and Oregon (82-68).  And their last two games were quite impressive, as they covered the point spread in each by double digits (Kansas +32.5; Oregon +11.5).  And that leads us to our second angle, which is 20-0-1 ATS, which plays on underdogs off 2 Tourney wins, in which they covered the spread by 28+ points combined, provided their opponent was off an ATS win, but didn't also cover its two previous games by 28+ points combined.  Take USC + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Baylor.  We played on the 'under' in Arkansas' previous game (a 72-70 win over Oral Roberts), which was our Sweet 16 Total of the Year.  That game easily stayed under the total of 156.5, but Arkansas failed to cover the 11.5-point spread.  Baylor did cover the spread in its win over Villanova, but it took a furious rush in the 2nd half for the Bears to surpass the 7.5-point spread.  Off those two results, we'll take the points with the underdog Razorbacks tonight.  Indeed, in the NCAA tournament, it's been very profitable to back teams off ATS losses in the Tourney, if their opponent wasn't off an ATS defeat in its previous game, provided our team wasn't laying more than 1 points.  Dating back 24 years, this angle has cashed 67.2% of the time.  That bodes well for Arkansas tonight.  As does the fact that #1 seeds, off a double-digit win, and ATS win, have covered just 8 of 31 Elite Eight round games.  Take Arkansas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over UCLA.  Last Monday, we played on each of these two teams, and got the $$$ with UCLA vs. Abilene Christian, and Alabama vs. Maryland.  At the start of this tournament, our projected final four was Baylor, Gonzaga, Alabama and West Virginia (with Baylor defeating Gonzaga in the final).  We now have three teams remaining after WVU was knocked out by Syracuse last weekend.  We'll look for Alabama to continue its strong play on this Sunday, as it comes into this Sweet 16 match-up on an 8-game win streak.  In its last game, it scored 96 points, which rated as the highest amount registered by an NCAA Tourney in the 2nd round over the last 10 seasons.  And NCAA Tourney teams are 96-68-2 ATS as a favorite of -6 (or more) points after scoring 88 or more in their previous game.  That bodes well for the Crimson Tide on Sunday.  As does the fact that teams seeded #11 (or worse) have covered just 3 of 16 Tourney games from the Sweet 16 round forward, if they were priced from +2 to +7.5 points.   Finally, UCLA is a wallet-busting 1-10 ATS its last 11 games in the Sweet 16.  Take Alabama to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Michigan.  Both of these teams come into this game off impressive wins.  Michigan fought off a game LSU team to win, 86-78, as a 4-point favorite, while Florida State blew out Colorado, 71-53, as a 1-point favorite.  The Wolverines are a #1 seed, but they're only favored by a bucket today against the #4-seeded Seminoles.  And this "short line" spells trouble for Juwan Howard's men, as #1 seeds are a poor 32% ATS in the Tourney's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds since 2000, if they weren't favored by more than 4 points, including 2-10 ATS if their opponent won their game by more than 12 points.  Florida State is 4-1-1 ATS its last 6 as an NCAA Tourney underdog.  And, three years ago, as a #9-seed, it gave then-No. 3-seeded Michigan everything it could handle in a 4-point loss in the Elite 8 round.  I look for FSU to pull the upset today.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Sunday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Yesterday we played on both Memphis (over Colorado State) and Mississippi State (over Louisiana Tech), and got the $$$ with each of them to move our mark this NIT season to 3-0-1 (or possibly 4-0).  In this championship game, we'll lay the points with the Tigers, as they fall into two of my better NIT Tourney systems, with records of 58-33, 24-11; and also a general post-season Tourney system which is 161-96-4 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, as I mentioned yesterday, Memphis is (now) 14-2 ATS its last 16 games, and 22-12 its last 34 post-season games.  Meanwhile, Miss State is an awful 7-23 ATS off an upset win, if it wasn't getting more than 5 points in its current game (including 1-11 ATS if it won its previous game by double-digits).  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Arkansas and Oral Roberts.  The Razorbacks have played their last four games 'under' the total, and I look for another relatively-low scoring game on this Saturday.  Indeed, teams that have gone under in a tournament's first two games have continued to go under 64.7% in their 3rd game of that post-season tournament.  And the 'under' also falls into 86-61 and 36-20 post-season Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Arkansas is 25-14 'under' in non-conference games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Mississippi State won a thriller in the semi-final round on Thursday, when it hit a 3-pointer to garner a 68-67 victory against Richmond (though it failed to cover the 4.5-point spread).  Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, knocked out fellow Conference USA member Western Kentucky, 72-65, as a 1-point favorite.  These two teams actually met last season, and Louisiana Tech went into Starkville and upset Miss State, 74-67, as a 7.5-point road dog.  But that sets up our play on this Saturday, as Mississippi State falls into 37-20 and 76-32 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, Mississippi State is an awesome 73-30 ATS when playing with revenge if it is not off a SU/ATS win, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season.  Finally, Miss State falls into 24-5, 9-1, 129-91, 28-7, and 83-55 ATS post-season systems of mine.  Lay the points with Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Colorado State.  These two teams were both given #1 seeds by the NIT Tournament committee.  The Tigers earned their berth into this semi-final round with a 69-66 triumph over Boise State, while Colorado State dispatched North Carolina State with a 4-point upset win, 65-61, as a 2-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Boise, in the post-season, teams seeded #3 (or better) are a soft 100-138 ATS off an upset win, if installed as an underdog of +1.5 (or more) points.  Memphis also is 13-2 ATS its last 15 games, and 21-12 ATS its last 33 post-season games, while Boise is 4-10 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Tigers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Pepperdine.  We succesfully played on the underdog Stetson Hatters not once, but twice, in the first two rounds of this CBI Tournament.  Yesterday's ATS win by Stetson came at the expense of this Coastal Carolina team, though Coastal was able to survive in overtime to win by 5, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And Stetson's ATS success continued a long-term trend in this CBI Tournament which has favored taking the points, as underdogs are now 110-93 ATS, including 55-38 ATS off a point spread defeat.  That bodes well for Coastal Carolina tonight.  As does the fact that Pepperdine is a horrible 34-57-1 ATS as a favorite vs. non-conference foes, while Coastal Carolina is 19-7 ATS as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, if the Chanticleers won their previous game.  Take Coastal Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Coastal Carolina.  We played on Stetson yesterday as a huge underdog (opened +9.5, closed +6.5) vs. Bowling Green, and the Hatters won outright, 53-52.  We'll come right back with Stetson today as an underdog vs. Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers are a poor 6-13 ATS as a favorite priced from -6.5 to -20 points, including 1-6 ATS off a win by more than 5 points, and 0-9 ATS if they didn't have a losing record against the spread.  Likewise, favorites of 6+ points have burned money in the CBI Tournament, including 16-35 ATS their last 51.  Finally, Atlantic Sun Conference teams have gone 49-33 in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, including 34-20 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points, and 16-7 ATS if they covered the spread by 6+ points in their previous game.  Grab the points with the Hatters.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Kansas.  Going into this tournament, the Big 10 Conference was the nation's best.  But we're 45 games in, and just Michigan and Maryland remain.  Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue have all been sent packing.  Not surprisingly, the Big 10 has gone a collective 5-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, the Pac-12 conference has been perfect.  And not just on the scoreboard, but also "in Vegas," as the conference from the Left Coast is 7-0 SU/ATS.  UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado and USC have done the Pac-12 proud, although three of the teams are still left to play today.  One is USC, which will take on Big 12-member Kansas tonight (the Big 12 teams will be 5-7 ATS if Oklahoma can't come back on Gonzaga (they're down 17, as of this writing)).  We'll take the Trojans in this game, as they fall into a 69-30 ATS 2nd Round system of mine, which goes against Kansas off its 93-84 win over Eastern Washington.  Additionally, the Jayhawks failed to cover the spread against Eastern Washington, and are just 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes this season (and 0-6 ATS when not favored by 20+ points).  Meanwhile, the Trojans are 5-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when priced from +2 to -13 points.  Take USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Maryland.  The Crimson Tide won the SEC Conference Tournament, and then defeated Iona in the opening round.  They'll now take on the Maryland Terrapins, who upset UConn in its first game.  Unfortunately for the Terrapins, underdogs off upset wins in the first round of the Tournament, priced from +4.5 to +10 points, have covered just 13 of 41 vs. foes that won their conference tournament.   Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over LSU.  The #1-seeded Wolverines enter this game on their first 2-game point spread losing streak of the season.  I like Michigan to bounce back tonight, as #1 seeds off back to back ATS losses have gone 30-3 SU and 22-10-1 ATS.  And Michigan is 8-1 ATS its last 9, and 18-6 ATS its last 24 post-season games off a point spread defeat.  Lay the points with the Wolverines.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats shocked the defending National Champion Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, as they won 62-58, as a 7-point underdog.  And that was Ohio's 4th straight win and cover.  But off that big upset win, we will fade the #13 seed this evening.  Indeed, teams seeded 12th (or worse) have covered just 20% in the 2nd Round of the Tournament when installed as an underdog of 7 or less points, if they were off 2 SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was not.  And Mid-American Conference teams off a SU/ATS win are a soft 9-19 ATS in the Tourneys against non-conference foes not off an ATS win.  Finally, Creighton has covered 86% over the last 31 seasons off back to back ATS losses, if its opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Bluejays today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Bruins drew a short straw and was forced to play a "First Four" game in order to qualify for the first round of the tournament.  The Bruins won that game against Michigan State, and then used it as a springboard to upset BYU on Thursday.  I won't step in front of the Bruins today, as teams seeded 5th (or worse) off a Tourney win, have gone 16-0-1 ATS when favored by more than 4 points against a .715 (or better) foe.  Take UCLA.

At 11:30 am, on Monday, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons find themselves installed as a big favorite in this game, even though it comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Miami and Akron.  Unfortunately, Bowling Green has been dreadful when laying points, as its 9-27-3 ATS its last 39, including 0-15-3 ATS off a point spread loss.  We'll grab the points with Stetson, as it also falls into a 33-7 ATS Tourney system of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers won their fourth straight game as an underdog when they stunned Tennessee, 70-56, on Friday.  Unfortunately, teams off 4+ upset wins have covered just 33% in the NCAA Tournament over the last 31 years, including just 11% in the Tourney's first two rounds.  Moreover, the Beavers are a poor 7-20-1 ATS off 4+ wins.  Take the Cowboys on Sunday night.  Good luck, always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over North Texas.  The #13-seeded Mean Green shocked Purdue, in Overtime, on Friday, while Villanova sent Winthrop packing with a 73-63 win.  That was Winthrop's second straight win, which doesn't bode well for it today, as NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the tourney's 2nd round off back to back upset wins.  Take the Wildcats minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Oral Roberts.  The Eagles advanced to this round with a huge upset win, in overtime, against Ohio State, as a #15 seed.  But #15 seeds have not fared well in the Tournament when they were getting 16 or less points, as they've covered just nine of 29.  Even worse for ORU tonight is the fact that underdogs, seeded #12 or worse, are a horrid 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS off an overtime victory in the NCAA Tournament.  Lay the points with Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Houston.  The Cougars have won their last two games by 37 and 31 points, which has caused this line -- according to my numbers -- to be a tad inflated.  And we'll take advantage, as NCAA Tourney teams have gone 0-10 ATS in the 2nd round if they won their two previous games by 50+ points, combined.  Even better:  Rutgers has cashed 68.1% over the last 30 years when getting 5+ points against a non-conference foe off an ATS win.  And Big 10 teams have cashed 60.8% in the Tourney against non-conference foes when getting 8+ points.  Finally, AAC Conference teams have covered just 28% as favorites vs. non-conference foes in the post-season.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Arkansas.  The #6-seeded Red Raiders are favored today vs. the #3-seeded Razorbacks.  And, over the last 31 years, when a team seeded #4 (or better) has been an underdog in the Tourney's 2nd round, it's cashed just 18% of the time.  Likewise, when a team seeded #5 (or worse) has been favored in the 2nd round, it's gone 41-15-2 ATS.  Finally, Arkansas is a wallet-busting 117-180 ATS away from home when not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Syracuse.  We played on WVU on Friday, and got the $$$ when they covered against Morehead State.  And that moved WVU's record in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys to 35-16-2 ATS its last 53, including 22-9 ATS in the NCAA.  We'll come right back with the Mountaineers on this Sunday, as they fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 131-64 ATS since 1990.  Lay the points.

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Wisconsin.  The Bears have seemingly hit the skids, as they've covered just one of their last eight games (and 0-3 ATS their last three).  But the Bears are 34-17 ATS off back to back ATS losses.  And #1-seeded teams have cashed 63% in the NCAA Tourney's 2nd round, if they were off back-to-back ATS losses.  Take Baylor.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Wildcats defeated Nicholls St., 79-45, to win the Southland Conference championship.  And that was Abilene's third straight win by more than 21 points.  But Southland teams are a horrid 0-16 SU and 4-11-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +25 points in the NCAA Tourney.  Meanwhile, Texas is 36-1 SU and 26-11 ATS when favored by more than 7 points against a non-conference foe off a win.  Finally, NCAA underdogs (or PK) off three straight wins by more than 15 points are a poor 31% ATS over the last 31 post-seasons.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Norfolk State.  We played on the Spartans on Thursday, and got the $$$ when it upset Appalachian State.  That was the Spartan's 7th straight win, overall.  But they will be overwhelmed tonight by a Gonzaga offense which ranks #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season.  Gonzaga's 19-6 ATS when laying more than 25 points, if it wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  And when matched up against #1-seeded teams, .695 (or worse) clubs are a soft 14-29 ATS, if they were off an upset NCAA Tourney win.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats won the Mid-American Conference tourney with an 84-69 upset of Buffalo, while Virginia was knocked out of the ACC Tournament by COVID-19.  Prior to losing its bout with the COVID-19 protocols, Virginia won, but failed to cover, in a 72-69 win against Syracuse.  The good news for the Cavaliers is that they'll get an opportunity to defend their 2019 championship.  And we'll lay the points with Virginia tonight, as it's 28-12 ATS off an ATS loss in its previous game.  Take Virginia.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over UConn.  Both of these teams lost in their respective tournaments.  Maryland fell to #1-seeded Michigan by 13 points, while UConn lost by 3 to Creighton.  The line on this game opened at UConn -2/Maryland +2, but has ticked higher -- and enough so that we will step in and take the points with the Terrapins.  It's true that Maryland was just 10-12 in Big 10 play this season.  But it played in (by far) the best conference in the country, so we will take its losing Big 10 record with a boulder of salt.  Based on my numbers, I believe Maryland is undervalued.  Also, one of the last things you want to do is give a Big 10 Conference team points in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.  Indeed, Big 10 teams are 17-6-1 ATS when getting +2 (or more) points in Round 1.  But that's not the best part.  If our Big 10 team was blown out by double-digits in its previous game, then our 17-6 record zooms to 9-0-1 ATS.  Finally, in match-ups between Big East and Big 10 Conference teams in the NCAA Tournament, underdogs of less than 6 points have gone 20-10 ATS.  Grab the points with Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:25 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Grand Canyon.  The Hawkeyes were 21-8 SU and 15-13 ATS this season.  But it played a rugged schedule, which included games against #1-seeded Gonzaga, #1-seeded Michigan, #1-seeded Illinois (two games), and #2-seeded Ohio State (two games).  Against that 'murderer's row,' Iowa was 1-5 SU/ATS.  Against the rest of its schedule, the Hawkeyes were 20-3 SU and 14-8 ATS.  The good news for Iowa today is that nobody would mistake the Antelopes for a #1 or #2-seeded team.  Iowa has been installed as a double-digit favorite, which bodes well for it this evening, as Iowa was 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in games it was laying more than 10 points.  And, even better, it's 29-10-1 ATS when laying double-digits vs. non-conference foes, and 9-1 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off a win.  The Hawkeyes also fall into several of my favorite systems, including one with a 118-70 ATS record (which was 3-1 yesterday), and another with a 151-65 ATS record (which was 1-0 yesterday).  Lay the points with Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Iona.  Our picks for this year's Final Four are Baylor, Gonzaga, West Virginia and this Crimson Tide team.  Of all the 68 teams that qualified for this NCAA Tournament, the Crimson Tide have the nation's best defense, per Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency numbers, as they give up just 86.9 points per 100 possessions.  Defensive efficiency has long been one of my favorite basketball metrics.  So, it's noteworthy that, of the other 13 teams that rank among the Top 15 in this category, that played yesterday, such defensive juggernauts went 5-1 ATS (provided they didn't play another team ranked in the Top 15).  This is a huge step-up in class for Iona, which has been installed as a double-digit underdog for just the 2nd time this season.  In its other game as a double-digit dog, it was blown out by 22 by Seton Hall.  Alabama is 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when laying double digits, while Iona is 0-16 SU and 5-11 ATS when getting double-digits, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Even worse for Iona:  Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference champs have gone 2-13 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when priced from +7 to +21 points.  Finally, the Gaels fall into a negative Tourney system of mine which is 61-160 ATS since 1990.  Take the Crimson Tide minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara.  The Gauchos won the Big West tournament last week, and have earned a 12 seed in this NCAA Tourney.  But Big West teams have under-performed in the NCAA Tournament, including 4-13 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than four points.  Creighton was seeded fifth by the committee, and probably hoped to get a Top 4 seed.  But that likely went out the window last weekend.  To say the Bluejays had a bad game last Saturday would be a massive understatement.  Creighton was favored by eight points in the Big East title game vs. Georgetown, yet lost by 25 points, 73-48.  In that game, the normally reliable Bluejays' offense (77.0 ppg; 47.6% FG) converted just 28.8% of its shots.  Meanwhile, Georgetown canned 46.6%.  And that game was a complete reversal of the previous meeting between the two teams (won by Creighton, 63-48) where the Bluejays hit 44.1%, while Georgetown only made 27.6%.  I love Creighton to bounce back on Saturday afternoon, as teams off blowout losses by more than 17 points have covered 68% in the NCAA Tournament since 1991 if they were seeded among the Top 2 in their conference tourney.  And if they're matched up against a .700 (or better) foe in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tourney, then our angle zooms to 78% ATS over the last 30 years.  Creighton is an awesome 32-13 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 15-3 ATS its last 18 off a 15-point (or worse) defeat.  Lay the points with the Bluejays.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Texas Southern.  The Tigers earned this date with Michigan by defeating Mount St. Mary's in a 'play-in' game on Thursday.  That moved their record to 17-8 SU and 13-10 ATS.  Unfortunately, #16-seeded teams, with good W/L percentages above .630, have been awful in the tournament when getting 21+ points, as they've gone 7-23 ATS.  Michigan rolled to a 20-4 record this season.  And three of its four losses were to a revenge-minded opponent it defeated earlier in the year.  But the Tigers won't have the benefit of previous game experience or motivation from revenge this afternoon.  On the other hand, Michigan lost its previous game to the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the Wolves typically bounce back strong off losses, as they're 84-47-2 ATS off a loss, including 10-0-1 ATS their last 11, and 16-1-1 ATS their last 18 when laying 5+ points.  Lay the points with Juwan Howard's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 Tourney with a 74-65 victory over VCU, while LSU fell one point short in the SEC Championship game against Alabama.  Unfortunately for St. Bonaventure, it has not fared well against non-conference foes off a loss, and especially not when priced from +7 to -15 points, as it's covered just 18 of 56 (and 0-9 ATS if its foe was off an upset loss).  Take LSU minus the points.

At 12:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over NC Greensboro.  Florida State lost in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech, 80-75, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that upset loss, I love FSU to rebound this afternoon against the Spartans.  Indeed, ACC Conference favorites of 8+ points have gone 36-9 ATS against .714 (or better) opponents, if our ACC team was off an upset loss, and failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Seminoles.

At 12:15 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Georgetown.  The Hoyas surprised many with their run to the Big East title last weekend.  Among Georgetown's victims were Villanova and Creighton, who both made this NCAA Tournament.  But off its string of four straight upset wins, we will fade the Hoyas this afternoon, as teams off 4 straight upset wins have covered 0 of their last 7, and just four of their last 19 games.  And in the last 31 years of this NCAA Tournament, teams off upset wins in their previous four games have covered just 35.7%.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Winthrop.  The Wildcats will look to bounce back from their upset loss to Georgetown, as a 6-point favorite last week.  Here, they'll battle Winthrop, the Big South Conference champion.  Just two points separated the Eagles from an undefeated season, as their only loss was against NC-Asheville, on Jan. 29.  The Bulldogs won that game, 57-55, as a 12.5-point underdog.  Today, the 23-1 Eagles have been installed as a mid-sized underdog vs. Villanova.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with a team which hasn't lost by 3+ points all season, especially given that Winthrop was 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog (and 13-11 ATS, overall).  But be careful.  In fact, NCAA teams with a win percentage > .883 are a soft 35.7% ATS in the Tourney when installed as an underdog, including 0-6-1 ATS over the last three Tourneys.  Even worse:  Villanova is a spectacular 44-14-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 4+ points in its previous game, if it was matched up against a foe with an ATS win percentage greater than 45.5% (and 17-0-1 ATS if priced from -6.5 to -12 points).  Take the Wildcats to blow out Winthrop.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Morehead State.  So, a quick trivia question:  name the team which came the closest to defeating 26-0 Gonzaga this season.  Answer:  West Virginia.  Indeed, the Mountaineers are the ONLY team which Gonzaga didn't beat by 10+ points this season, as the score in the game was 87-82.  Likewise, the Mountaineers only lost to the 2nd best team, Baylor, by five points, 94-89.  So, this is a team which has the talent to win against ANY team in the country.  And WVU is one of my picks to make the Final Four (along with Gonzaga, Baylor and Alabama).  It's true that WVU was upset by Oklahoma State not once, but twice, to end its season.  But NCAA Tourney teams favored by 7+ points are 90% ATS the past 15 years off back to back losses.  We'll lay the points in this NCAA Tourney opener, as the Mountaineers are also 34-16-2 in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys, including 21-9 ATS in the NCAA.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over North Texas.  The Boilers had won and covered five straight before falling, 87-78, to Ohio State in the Big 10 Tourney.  But I love them to bounce back from that 9-point loss today, as they generally do just that under coach Matt Painter.  Indeed, dating back to his first season as head coach, Purdue is an awesome 60-23 ATS off a SU/ATS loss by 7+ points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season!  Take Purdue minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings + the points over Houston.  We played on the Cougars last Sunday against Cincinnati, and it was over early, as Houston coasted to a 91-54 victory, as a 13.5-point favorite.  Unfortunately for the Cougars, teams generally have letdowns after such dominant wins in their Conference Championship game.  Indeed, favorites (or PK) have gone 8-22 ATS in the NCAA tourney after a SU/ATS win by 15+ points in their conference title game, including 0-6 ATS when priced from -15.5 to -21.5 points.  Take Cleveland State + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Hartford.  In the last NCAA Tournament, our selection in the preseason was Virginia (at 22-1 odds) to win the National Title (and it did).  This year, our preseason pick was on Baylor (at 12-1 odds).  So, it's probably not a surprise that we will play on the Bears minus the points over the Hawks to open this tournament.  Baylor has been dominant against non-conference foes, going 54-11 straight-up, and 29-15 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced as a big favorite of -19 to -43.5 points.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams are 23-7 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when laying 21+ points against foes with a won/loss percentage greater than .625.  Take Baylor.

At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders made it all the way to the last NCAA Tournament championship game, but lost to Virginia in overtime.  This year's Texas Tech team won't be getting Elite Eight, much less the title game, as it's underwhelmed the entire season.  Indeed, if you toss out all its games against teams from the Southland Conference, SWAC, Sun Belt, etc., and only look at Texas Tech's record against foes from the larger conferences, its record was just 10-10 this season.  Even worse:  it was 6-14 ATS in those 20 games, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread at least 42% of the time (Utah State has covered 59.2% this season).  Finally, the clincher is that Texas Tech is an awful 63-107-2 ATS away from home off a loss, including 6-17 ATS when favored by 4 or more points.  Take the Aggies as the underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:45 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Colgate.  The Patriot League champion Raiders are seeded #14, and have drawn #3-seeded Arkansas from the SEC as their first round foe.  Colgate has been installed as a single-digit underdog.  But tourney teams seeded #13 (or worse) have gone just 60-91 ATS as single-digit underdogs (or PK) since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for the Raiders on Friday.  Nor does the fact that Arkansas is 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 when priced as a favorite of 14 or less points.  And Arkansas is also 10-0 ATS in non-conference games with single-digit point spreads, if Arkansas was off an upset loss.  Take the Razorbacks.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Thursday, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos over SMU.  The Broncos were bounced out of the Mountain West Conference tournament a week ago when it was upset by Nevada, 89-82, as a 4-point favorite.  And that was Boise's 3rd straight loss, overall.  But off that upset loss, I love Boise to bounce back against SMU.  Indeed, the Broncos are a powerful 48-25 ATS off a loss when matched up against a non-conference foe, including 8-1 ATS off an upset loss when not playing on an opponent's home floor.  Even worse for SMU:  this game is priced near Pk'em, and SMU has covered just 27 of 78 when priced from -1.5 to +9 points!  And, finally, NCAA teams off 3+ losses have covered 69.4% of post-season games when installed as a favorite against a non-conference foe also off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Boise State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, in the NCAA Tournament "First Four" play-in round, our selection is on the Norfolk State Spartans + the points over Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers come into this game off an upset win over Georgia State in the Sun Belt championship game.  But Sun Belt teams have not fared well in the NCAA Tourney when they weren't getting more than 8 points, as they've covered just four of 16 games.  And the Mountaineers are also a wallet-busting 8-19-1 ATS away from home off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Spartans have won their last six games, while going 5-0 ATS with one game off the board.  And they're 24-15 ATS as an underdog away from home.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Wednesday, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets went 15-4 this season in the MAC Conference, but were defeated by Ohio, 87-80, in the semi-finals.  That relegated the Rockets to the NIT Tournament, and they've been installed as a small favorite against the Atlantic 10's Spiders.  We'll fade Toledo tonight, as Mid-American conference teams have covered just one of 12 NIT Tourney games when not getting more than 5 points, including 0-8 ATS as a favorite.  That doesn't bode well for Toledo tonight.  Nor does the fact that it's an awful 0-8 itself in the post-season the past four years.  Or that it's covered just nine of 36 post-season games when priced from -3 to +12 points.  Take Richmond + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Cougars were favored by 7 points yesterday against Memphis, and won that semi-final game, 76-74, to oust the #3-seeded Tigers from the AAC Tournament.  But Houston failed to cover the spread in that game.  However, that ATS loss sets up the Cougars in an NCAA Tournament system which has cashed 14 straight.  What we want to do is play on a team favored by more than 7 points in its Conference championship game, if it didn't cover the spread in its previous game.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over LSU.  These two SEC rivals met twice earlier this season.  And the Tigers were blown out in each game by Alabama.  LSU first lost at home by 30 points, 105-75.  And then it fell by 18 in the rematch, at Tuscaloosa, in February.  Those two defeats have continued LSU's general failures when it comes to playing 'Bama.  Dating back to 2001, LSU has covered just 14 of 41 games vs. the Crimson Tide.  We'll lay the points with Alabama today, as NCAA teams, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 points in their conference's championship game, have covered 69.7% since 1997, if they won both regular season meetings by double-digits.  And SEC revenge-minded teams (like LSU) have covered just 35.7% in the SEC Championship game, including 2-8 ATS if they lost the previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays minus the points over the Georgetown Hoyas.  The Hoyas are a surprising entrant in the Big East Conference Tourney championship game.  But they will be hard-pressed to defeat the Blue Jays this evening.  Even with their three Tourney victories thus far, the Hoyas still don't have a winning record on the season.  And underdogs without a winning record are 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS their last 11 Conference Tourney title games!  That doesn't bode well for the Hoyas today.  Nor does the fact that Georgetown's covered just four of the last 13 meetings vs. the Blue Jays.  Finally, Big East tourney underdogs of +7 (or more) points have lost their last 18 games, straight-up, and have covered just 35 of 91 games.  Take Creighton to blow Georgetown out.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Oklahoma State.  Yesterday, the Cowboys ousted Baylor (my preseason pick, at 12-1 odds, to win this year's National Championship) from the Big 12 Tourney.  But off that huge upset, we will go against the Cowboys today in the Big 12 Conference title game.  Indeed, NCAA teams that defeated their conference's #1 seed in the semi-final round, if that #1 seed's W/L percentage was .890 (or better), have generally suffered letdowns in the title game, and have only covered the spread 23% of the time since 2000.  Like Oklahoma State, the Texas Longhorns are also playing terrific basketball.  Shaka Smart's men have won and covered four straight after they upset Texas Tech yesterday.  And they also play this game with revenge from a loss to the Cowboys in the previous meeting this season.  Texas is 13-4 ATS its last 17 games when playing with revenge, and also a perfect 5-0 ATS its last five post-season games when playing with revenge.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Fairfield.  Both of these Metro Atlantic teams enter this championship game on a roll.  The Gaels have won five straight (4-0-1 ATS) after yesterday's 70-64 triumph against Niagara, as a six-point favorite.  And Fairfield is riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak after its upset win over St. Peter's last night.  Off that upset win, we will fade the Stags this afternoon, as they're a wallet-busting 6-28 ATS off an upset win, if their foe wasn't off an ATS loss, as well as 0-16 SU and 1-15 ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a .666 (or better) foe.  Meanwhile, Iona is 7-0-1 ATS its last eight post-season games, and 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 Metro Atlantic tourney games.  Lay the points with the Gaels.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Nevada.  The Wolf Pack upset the Boise State Broncos yesterday, 89-82, as a 4-point underdog.  And that was Nevada's 2nd straight win, overall.  Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, they're a wallet-busting 14-26 ATS in the post-season off back to back wins, including 0-9 ATS if they covered the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  San Diego St. is 39-24 ATS as a favorite vs. foes off an upset win, including 24-9 ATS if the Aztecs were off an ATS loss.  Take San Diego State tonight minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal-Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points over Cal Davis.  The Gauchos have won each of their last three games, but they've not covered the point spread in any of them.  That ATS losing streak should end tonight, as NCAA teams on 3-Game win streaks, that have gone 0-3 ATS in those games, have covered the spread 61.8% in the post-season vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Lay the points with the Gauchos.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays over Connecticut.  The Huskies won their fifth straight game, and stretched their ATS win streak to seven games yesterday when they blew out DePaul, 94-60, as a 12.5-point favorite.  Creighton also won a blowout, as it ousted Butler, 87-56, as a 10.5-point favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Huskies, especially since they also play this game with revenge from two losses to Creighton this season.  But double-revenging NCAA teams have covered just 36% since 1991 if they were on 5-game SU/ATS win streaks.  Take Creighton to bounce UConn from the Big East Tournament.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over North Carolina.  The Seminoles were upset by Notre Dame in their last regular season game.  And they also were upset by the Tar Heels when these two teams last met.  That combination of upset defeats should serve as motivation for Florida State tonight.  Indeed, NCAA teams off an upset loss to end the regular season, and playing with revenge from an upset loss, have covered 60% over the last 31 seasons vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Rutgers.  The Illini have impressed over the past 15 days, as they've won (and covered) four straight, including upset wins over Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State.  I won't step in front of this freight train this evening, as they're playing with revenge from a loss in Piscataway earlier this season.  Rutgers was a 4.5-point home underdog in that game, and won, 91-88.  But revenge-minded teams, with a .769 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 60% in the conference tourneys against .625 (or worse) opponents, if our revenger was upset on the road in the previous meeting.  Even better:  if our team is off back to back SU/ATS wins, then our 60% system zooms to 74%.  Take Illinois minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Cincinnati.  This is a revenge game for the Mustangs, who lost, 76-69, as a 5.5-point home favorite to the Bearcats when these teams met in Dallas earlier this season.  The Mustangs come into this AAC Tournament off back to back road wins against Tulsa and East Carolina.  And that bodes well for them this afternoon, as AAC Conference teams have gone 62-34 ATS off a win, if they were favored by 3+ points against a conference foe which it lost to in the previous meeting.  Even better:  the Bearcats won their last regular season game, 82-69, vs. East Carolina.  Unfortunately for SMU, it is 1-13 its last 14, and 6-30 ATS its last 36 off a win.  Take SMU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Purdue.  The Buckeyes were ranked among the top four teams in the country going into their game vs. the Wolverines.  But Ohio State lost that game, and then proceeded to lose three more to fall to 18-8 on the season.  Yesterday, the Buckeyes finally won, but they didn't cover the point spread, which was their fifth straight ATS loss.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Boilermakers, who have won (and covered) five straight.  But NCAA teams (like Ohio State), off 5+ ATS losses, with a win percentage > .700, have covered 61% over the last 31 years vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  I expect the Buckeyes to get back into the win column "in Vegas" this afternoon, blow out Purdue, and make a serious run at the Big 10 Title.  We'll lay the small number.

At 11:30 AM, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The #3-ranked Wolverines were upset by their rival, Michigan State, in their final regular season game.  But that loss wasn't surprising, given that Michigan had just blown out the Spartans by 19 points three days before.  So, Michigan State was out for revenge in the rematch, and got it.  But off that upset loss, we'll play on U-M against Maryland, as single-digit favorites have covered 69% in the conference tourneys off an upset loss, if they owned a win percentage greater than .800.  Take Michigan to blow out Maryland.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies + the points over Weber St., as the Grizzlies fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 162-83 ATS.  Yesterday, the Grizzlies won their opening tournament game, 69-64, as a 13.5-point favorite vs. Idaho.  Montana's now a mid-priced underdog vs. Weber State, and we'll grab the points with Travis DeCuire's men.  For technical support, consider that underdogs have cashed 58% in conference tourneys over the past 31 years if they won their previous conference tourney game by 5 points or less, while being favored by 10+ points in that game.  Additionally, Montana's 9-2 ATS vs. Weber St if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  And Weber is a poor 14-23-1 ATS its last 38 post-season games, including 7-15-1 ATS vs. conference foes off a win.  Grab the points with the Grizzlies.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Mississippi.  The Gamecocks enter tonight's game off back to back blowout losses against Arkansas and Kentucky, while Ole Miss won and covered its last two games vs. Kentucky and Vandy.  Off those results, we'll grab the points with the underdog, as SEC Conference underdogs off back to back losses have cashed 63% in the conference tourney since 1991 vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Sam Houston Bearkats minus the points over Lamar.  The Cardinals blew out Houston Baptist yesterday, 62-52.  But the Huskies were just 6-18 on the season.  Today, Lamar will have to step up in class against Sam Houston.  And the 19-7 Bearkats have already won twice vs. the Cardinals this season, by an average of 15.5 ppg.  Sam Houston does come into tonight's game off a loss, but it's 9-1 ATS this season vs. an opponent off a win.  And Southland Conference teams have cashed 67% in the tourney off a loss when matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Lay the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights have won their last four games, and they've covered their last five.  But their SU/ATS win streak has set them up in negative 4-23 and 18-54 ATS systems of mine.  Also, notwithstanding their win streak, the Knights still have a losing record on the season.  And losing teams are a soft 40% ATS in the Conference Tourneys if they were on a 4-game (or better) SU/ATS win streak.  Grab the points with East Carolina.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Minnesota.  Yesterday, we played on Minnesota vs. Northwestern, and got the $$$ when the Gophers snapped their 7-game SU/ATS losing streak and pulled off the mild upset in a 51-46 victory. Today, it will be Ohio State's turn to try to snap a losing streak (it's lost 4 in a row, SU/ATS).  Notwithstanding yesterday's win, the Gophers are a horrific 29-76 ATS away from home in Big 10 Conference play when priced from -1 to +11 points. That doesn't bode well for coach Pitino's men.  Nor does the fact that Big 10 Conference teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have cashed 63.1% since 1991 as a favorite vs. a conference foe off an upset win.  And the Buckeyes are 19-10 ATS vs. conference foes when Ohio State was favored, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 am, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Oklahoma State.  These two teams had a dress rehearsal for this afternoon's game last week, in Morgantown, and the Cowboys won that game, 85-80.  We'll take WVU in the rematch, as Oklahoma State is a dreadful 16-37 ATS away from home vs. revenge-minded teams when the Cowboys weren't favored by 2.5 or more points.  Even better:  the Mountaineers have cashed 75% since 1990 in the post-season off an upset loss, when they weren't favored by double-digits.  And revenge-minded Big 12 teams have cashed 60% in the Conference Tourney when favored, if they were off a SU/ATS loss, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Lay the points with WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Northwestern.  These two teams met in Minneapolis less than two weeks ago, and the Wildcats upset the Gophers, 67-59, as 5-point road underdogs.  Minnesota had lost its three games prior to that meeting, and it proceeded to lose its next three following that game, so it has now lost seven straight games (both SU and ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Gophers here, especially given that they're banged-up.  But we'll take the Golden Gophers to snap their long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 64% in the post-season over the last 22+ years, if they were on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak, and were not getting more than nine points.  Likewise, Big 10 teams have gone 51-31 ATS in the conference tournament when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the season.  Take the Golden Gophers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Middle Tennessee State.  Both of these teams enter this Conference USA Tourney game on a string of losses:  the Mean Green have dropped three straight, while the Blue Raiders have lost their last six.  But that's where the similarity ends.  Middle Tennessee has won just five games this season, and has yet to win away from home, as it's 0-11 SU and 4-7 ATS this season away from Murfreesboro.  And, dating back to March 8, 2018, it's 5-42 SU and 15-31 ATS away from home.  Meanwhile, the Mean Green are 7-0 ATS when favored by 8+ points.  Finally, NCAA teams off back to back home defeats have cashed 63% in the post-season over the past 31 years.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Louisville.  The Blue Devils are on the tournament bubble, but got things off on the right foot yesterday with an 86-51 blowout win over Boston College.  Off that momentum-building win, we'll play on Duke today, as it's favored against a Louisville team which defeated it twice earlier this season.  And revenge-minded NCAA teams have cashed 62.2% since 1991 if they won their opening tournament game by 20+ points, and were not getting more than 2 points in their current game.  Lay the points with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Kansas State.  The Frogs enter this Big 12 Tourney game on a 3-game losing streak.  But I love it to snap this streak, as it will be facing a Kansas State team which upset it, 62-54, in Fort Worth last month.  And the Horned Frogs fall into an 81-30 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded favorites, as well as a 60-18 ATS system which plays on certain teams off back-to-back losses.  Over the last 31 years, in the Big 12 (or Big 8) Tournament, revenge-minded favorites off a SU loss have covered 61.1% vs. foes off a SU win.  Finally, the Horned Frogs are 20-8 ATS in the post-season off a loss, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Northwestern.  These two teams met in Minneapolis less than two weeks ago, and the Wildcats upset the Gophers, 67-59, as 5-point road underdogs.  Minnesota had lost its three games prior to that meeting, and it proceeded to lose its next three following that game, so it has now lost seven straight games (both SU and ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Gophers here, especially given that they're banged-up.  But we'll take the Golden Gophers to snap their long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 64% in the post-season over the last 22+ years, if they were on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak, and were not getting more than nine points.  Likewise, Big 10 teams have gone 51-31 ATS in the conference tournament when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the season.  Take the Golden Gophers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Fairfield.  These two teams met at Draddy Gymnasium last week, and split the two-game series.  Manhattan took Game 1 on Thursday by a 69-59 score, while Fairfield leveled the series the next day, with an 18-point win, 85-67.  Off that blowout defeat, we'll take Manhattan in this Metro Atlantic tournament game, as teams playing with revenge from a 14-point (or worse) upset defeat have cashed 66%.  Additionally, the Jaspers are 41-26-2 ATS when playing with revenge, while Fairfield is a wallet-busting 0-12 ATS its last 12 off an upset win when not getting more than 10 points, and 21-42-2 ATS its last 65, overall, off an upset win.  Take Manhattan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Quinnipiac.  When these teams met in February, the Bobcats upended Iona, 74-70, as a 7-point road underdog.  We'll lay the points with Iona in this rematch, as the Gaels are a solid 28-7 ATS away from home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And Quinnipiac is 0-7 ATS when not getting 9+ points against a revenge-minded foe it defeated on the road in the previous meeting.  The Gaels also fall into 190-97 and 408-280 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points with Iona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At Midnight, our selection is on the Brigham Young Cougars minus the points over Pepperdine.  When these two teams last met -- in Malibu -- the Waves upset the Cougars, 76-73, as 6.5-point home underdogs.  BYU actually led that game by double-digits early in the 2nd half, but the Waves mounted a comeback to secure the upset win.  What's noteworthy about that BYU loss is that it's the only defeat in conference play suffered by BYU this season against an opponent not ranked #1 in the country (Gonzaga).  I look for the Cougars to avenge that defeat, as the Cougars are 56-7 SU and 42-20-1 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, and playing with revenge.  Additionally, West Coast Conference teams are 74-47 ATS when favored by less than 12 points in the WCC tourney, including 27-10 ATS when playing with revenge.  Finally, BYU falls into 157-88 and 190-96 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons minus the points over Charleston College.  The Dragons lost both meetings against Charleston this season.  But the Cougars had the scheduling advantage, as both games were played on their home court.  That won't be the case today, so we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Dragons, who fall into a 408-280 ATS revenge system of mine.  And, yes, it's true that Charleston has won four of its last five games.  But it was favored to win each of those five.  When installed as an underdog, it's 1-9 ATS its last 10.  And it's also 7-20-1 ATS its last 28 as an underdog of +7 or less points.  Meanwhile, Drexel is 8-0 ATS its last eight (and 13-2 ATS its last 15) when priced from -3.5 to -7.5 points.  Take the Dragons on Sunday night.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies minus the points over William & Mary.  The 7th-seeded Tribe blew out NC Wilmington yesterday, 73-60, as a 4.5-point underdog.  But Wilmington had not been playing very well -- it was on a 4-game SU/ATS slide entering yesterday's game.  This will be a much more difficult task for William & Mary, as Northeastern's on an 8-2 SU/ATS run in conference play.  And teams seeded #7 (or worse) in their conference tourneys are a soft 46-78 ATS as single-digit underdogs off an upset win as a dog of more than two points, if they were matched up against a foe off a SU loss.  With Northeastern, indeed, off a loss in its last regular season game, we'll take the Huskies to blow out William & Mary this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Michigan.  Juwan Howard's men bounced back off their 23-point loss to Illinois by routing their rival, Michigan State, on Thursday.  The Wolverines won that game, 69-50, as an 11.5-point road favorite.  But we'll step in today and take the points with the Spartans.  Tom Izzo's troops are a reliable 22-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 7-0 ATS if they lost the previous meeting by 15+ points.  And .810 (or better) Big 10 teams are a dreadful 23.3% ATS on the road as favorites of more than 5 points vs. a revenge-minded conference foe that it defeated by 13+ points in the season's first meeting.  Take Michigan State.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Baylor.  The Bears were my preseason pick to win the NCAA Title this season (at 12-1 odds), and they've not disappointed in the regular season, as they are in a very good position to be the #2 seed behind Gonzaga when the full field is released next Sunday.  Still, this is a very good situation to fade Scott Drew's men this afternoon, as the Red Raiders are 17-8, and playing with revenge from a 68-60 home loss to Baylor in January.  Even better:  Texas Tech is on a 3-game SU/ATS winning streak, while Baylor as dropped its last four games to the point spread.  And revenge-minded .680 (or better) road underdogs of +7 (or more) points, off momentum-building 3 SU/ATS wins, have cashed 61% vs. conference foes in the season's second meeting.  Grab the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes minus the points over Elon.  The Phoenix won (and covered) their fifth straight game yesterday when they wiped out Towson, 69-48, as a 3.5-point favorite.  They'll now face the #1-seed, James Madison.  And the Dukes already defeated them twice this season (78-57; 70-61).  That doesn't bode well for the 8-8 Phoenix, as .500 (or worse) NCAA teams off a SU/ATS win, playing with revenge from two losses earlier in the season, are a wallet-busting 36% ATS against foes off a SU/ATS loss.  And Colonial Athletic Association teams, off an upset loss to end the regular season, have rebounded to cover the spread in 71% of tourney games against foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Dukes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Loyola Chicago Ramblers minus the points over Drake.  The last time Loyola lost this season was against these Bulldogs, who defeated the Ramblers, 51-50, as 5.5-point home underdogs.  But over the last 26 seasons, NCAA Tourney teams have cashed 70.5% in Conference Title games if they were favored, and playing with revenge from a loss as a 5.5-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Ramblers to blow out Drake.

At Midnight, our selection is on the Pepperdine Waves minus the points over Santa Clara.  The Broncos pulled off an upset yesterday when they upended Pacific, 81-76, as a 3-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Santa Clara tonight, West Coast Conference underdogs have covered just 17 of 52 off an upset win.  And Pepperdine falls into 103-60 and 66-24 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams against opponents off upset victories.  Lay the points with the Waves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin Cajuns over South Alabama.  The Jaguars advanced into this quarterfinal matchup with a win over Louisiana Monroe last night.  But South Alabama was favored by 5 points in that game; here, they're involved in a game near PK'em.  And the Jaguars are a wallet busting 9-18 ATS in the post season when not favored by more than 1 point, including 0-7 ATS their last seven when facing an opponent off an ATS loss.  Finally, the higher seeded team has gone 37-12 ATS in the Sun Belt Tourney when not laying more than a point.  Take the Rajin Cajuns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Missouri State.  Drake's tournament game was cancelled yesterday due to Northern Iowa developing COVID within its ranks.  So, the Panthers forfeited the game, and Drake gets to move on to face Missouri State this afternoon.  The Bears won and covered, 66-55, as a 7-point favorite vs. Valpo last night.  But that win has triggered a negative 123-206 ATS system of mine which goes against certain underdogs off SU/ATS wins.  And Drake is also 43-19 ATS its last 62 as a favorite.  Lay the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Illinois.  We had a huge play on Illinois +8.5 over Michigan earlier this week, and were rewarded with a 23-point upset, blowout win.  That was Illinois' 3rd straight win and cover, while Ohio State has lost its last three games SU and ATS.  But we'll switch gears this afternoon, and go against Illinois off that huge victory.   Indeed, the Illini have covered just 7 of 27 off a win, against an opponent off a SU/ATS loss, if that foe was on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak, overall.  Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are 18-9 ATS their last 27 as a home favorite (or PK).  And, finally, NCAA teams have cashed 62% since 1991 when they were off 3+ losses, and playing their final home game of the season, and matched up against an opponent off a 17-point (or greater) win.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Vermont Catamounts minus the points over Hartford.  The Catamounts were upset in their last regular season game by Maryland-Baltimore County, 66-55, as a 3-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Hawks come into this game off an upset win over Albany, which was their 3rd straight win overall.  This is a horrible situation for Hartford, as road teams off back to back wins have covered just 34.7% since 1991 in Conference Tourneys against opponents off a loss.  Additionally, the Hawks have covered just 5 of 14 off back to back conference wins, while Vermont is 8-4 ATS off a loss.  Lay the points with the Catamounts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights minus the points over American.  Army comes into this game on a 6-game ATS losing streak, but they did win their final regular season game, straight-up, against Boston U.  And that bodes well for them today, as home teams have cashed 82% in the post-season since 1991, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, but won their previous game, straight-up.  Take Army to blow out American.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Wichita State.  The Bulls were upset at home by Wichita when these two teams met in Miami in December.  We'll take South Florida to avenge that home loss, as they're 10-4 ATS their last 14 when playing with revenge from a home loss.  And they're 19-7 ATS their last 26 on the road.  Grab the points with the Bulls on Saturday.