Sports Picks & Predictions

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Fort Wayne Mastodons plus the points over Detroit.  The Mastodons were blown out, 82-72, last night, here in the Motor City for their fifth straight defeat.  But we'll take Fort Wayne to pull the upset in this re-match, as Horizon League road teams, off back to back losses, have gone 34-15 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent earlier in the season.  Take Fort Wayne.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington.  The Ducks have dropped their first two games of this 3-game home stand.  But the third time should be the charm, as .666 (or better) teams have cashed 67% since 1997 as home favorites of -5+ points, off back to back home losses.  Take Oregon to blow out the Huskies.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars over St. John's.  The Johnnies come into this Big East matchup on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak, including a huge upset win, as a 9-point underdog, over Villanova in their last game.  In contrast, the Friars have lost their last two games SU/ATS.  But I love Providence to turn the tables on St. John's this afternoon, as they're 28-10 ATS at home when priced from +1 to -5 points.  Additionally, Big East teams have covered just 38% over the last 31 years off 5 SU/ATS wins when playing an opponent off back to back losses.  And St. John's has also covered just 7 of 22 vs. Providence when not getting 3+ points.  But the clincher is that Big East teams, off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog over Big East foes with an undefeated conference record, have covered just 35% since 1990 when not getting 5+ points.  Take Providence.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  These two teams met here in Denton yesterday, and the Bulldogs upset North Texas, 68-63, as a 5.5-point underdog.  We'll take the Mean Green to avenge last night's loss, as it's a dominant 18-2 SU at home its last 20.  And notwithstanding last night's upset, it's still covered 14 of its last 18 lined home games.  Finally, the Mean Green fall into a 146-97 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams that lost at home in the previous meeting vs. their opponent.  Take North Texas minus the points.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers + the points over SIU-Edwardsville.  The Panthers come into this game on a ghastly 8-game SU/ATS losing streak.  And they were actually favored in five of those eight games.  And their last three games were among the four worst performances, as they failed to cover the spread by 20, 18.5 and 27.5 points.  This is certainly an "ugly" play tonight, but we will take the Panthers as a small underdog to avenge their loss to Edwardsville a week ago.  For technical support, we note that NCAA teams that failed to cover the spread by 18+ points in each of their three previous games have covered 64.7% over the last 31 years.  Take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners have won five games in a row.  And Oklahoma was dressed up as an underdog in each of its last three games.  They'll now travel to Lubbock to try to avenge a 69-67 home loss in Norman, back in December.  Unfortunately for Oklahoma, .700 (or better) NCAA teams off 3 upset wins are an awful 36% ATS in the regular season since 1990, including 2-7 ATS this season.  And Big 12 underdogs are a wallet-breaking 35% ATS in conference games when they won and covered their previous five games.  Take Texas Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves minus the points over Indiana State.  These two teams met yesterday in Terre Haute, and the Sycamores came away with a narrow, 60-57, win. We'll take the Braves to avenge that defeat, and lay the small number this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that .316 (or better) Missouri Valley teams are 173-110 ATS if they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  With the Braves currently riding a 4-game point spread losing streak, we'll step in and take them in this revenge spot.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus the points over UNLV.  Nevada comes into this rivalry game off back to back road losses at Wyoming.  But the good news for Nevada is that it's a wallet-fattening 56-23 ATS vs. .700 (or worse) foes, if the Wolf Pack weren't favored by double-digits, and were off a loss to a conference foe.  Meanwhile, the Rebels are a woeful 25-44-2 ATS on the road when not getting more than 6 points.  Take Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks minus the points over Sam Houston State.  The Lumberjacks saw their six-game win streak snapped in Abilene on Wednesday, when they fell to the Wildcats, 82-62, as a 2.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, the Bearkats have won their last 10 games, including a 75-70 win over the Islanders in Corpus Christi, as a 9-point road favorite.  But even though Sam Houston has won its last 10 games, it finds itself installed as an underdog this afternoon.  And the reason should be obvious:  the Lumberjacks just don't lose at home, in Nacogdoches.  To wit:  they've won 16 straight, and 24 of their last 25 home games.  Even better:  the Lumberjacks fall into one of my favorite systems which is 382-237 ATS since 1990, which plays on certain home favorites with strong home courts.  Take the Lumberjacks to blow out the Bearkats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over UAB.  This is a rematch of a game played in Murfreesboro on Thursday, which was won by UAB, 70-59.  Tonight's game will switch venues, and be played in Birmingham.  And we'll take the double-digits with the underdog, as UAB is a dreadful 14-29-1 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes if the Blazers won and covered the spread in the meeting earlier in the season.  Take Middle Tennessee + the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds + the points over Drake.  The Redbirds went 0-2 SU/ATS at home last weekend when they were upset not once, but twice by Valparaiso.  But road underdogs of more than 12 points have covered 63.1% since 1994 off back to back upset losses at home.  And sub-.400 teams are 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 22-4 ATS their last 26) vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Redbirds + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Mount St Marys Mountaineers minus the points over Sacred Heart.  The Pioneers went into Emmitsburg yesterday, and upset Mount St. Mary's, 61-58, as a 5-point underdog.  That was Mount St. Mary's first home loss this season.  And it had been 3-0 SU/ATS at home, with an average cover by 13.33 points greater than the point spread.  We'll take the Mountaineers to turn the tables on Sacred Heart, and avenge that home upset loss with a blowout win today, as Mount St. Mary's is 13-9 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and 18-13 ATS off back to back losses, overall.  Sacred Heart, meanwhile, is 5-9 ATS off a road win, and 9-14 ATS off back to back wins, overall.  And the Pioneers also fall into a negative 93-150 ATS system of mine that goes against certain underdogs in conference games off back to back wins.  Take the Mountaineers to blow out Sacred Heart.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Dixie State Trailblazers + the points over California Baptist.  These two teams met last night, and the Lancers notched their 5th straight victory, and handed the Trailblazers their 7th straight loss, with an 89-74 win.  But we'll grab the points with the Trailblazers in this rematch.  And, for technical suport, we note that home teams off 5+ wins have covered just 32.3% since 1990 against conference foes off 5+ losses, if our home team wasn't favored by 12+ points.  Take Dixie State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Illinois Leathernecks + the points over North Dakota.  Last night's game between these two Summit League rivals went down to the wire, and the Fighting Hawks won by two points, 83-81, as a 4-point home favorite.  For Round 2, the oddsmakers have increased the number slightly, and we'll happily take the added value with the road underdog.  North Dakota is a poor 8-23 ATS its last 31 when not playing with revenge, and 5-12 ATS off a straight-up win.  Moreover, Western Illinois falls into a 46-14 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off conference losses.  Take the points with the Leathernecks.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Stanford.  The Cardinal come into Tempe off back to back upset wins over UCLA and Arizona.  Unfortunately, underdogs off back to back upset wins over .750 (or better) conference foes have not been profitable over the last 31 years.  Meanwhile, the Sun Devils snapped a six-game losing streak on Thursday with a 72-68 win over California.  But they failed to cover the 9.5-point spread, which extended their ATS futility this season to 2-11 ATS.  But this lack of success "in Vegas" has created point spread value here, and we'll take advantage of this value, and lay the small number.  The Sun Devils are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 meetings with Stanford, and 11-6 ATS as a home favorite vs. Stanford.  And ASU is also 8-4-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including a perfect 3-0 ATS at home.  Finally, the Sun Devils fall into a super NCAA Basketball system of mine which is 252-168 ATS since 1990, as well as a 2nd system which is 188-114 ATS.  Take the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tarleton State Texans + the points over Utah Valley.  The Wolverines won, 73-60, here at home vs. Tarleton last night, as a 6.5-point home favorite.  The line is a tad higher for this rematch, and we'll take the road underdog Texans.  It's true that Tarleton has yet to win in WAC Conference play, at 0-5, while Utah Valley is undefeated, at 4-0.  But teams with an undefeated conference record (at conference Game #5 forward) have only covered 38.1% vs. teams that were winless in conference play, if our unbeaten team wasn't favored by double-digits.  Take the Texans + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers + the points over Southeast Missouri.  The Panthers are on a 7-game SU/ATS losing streak, including a double-digit upset loss at Tennessee-Martin on Thursday.  We'll take the Panthers this evening, as road underdogs off an upset loss, and 5 SU/ATS losses, overall, have cashed 64% since 1990.  Take Eastern Illinois + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over San Jose State.  This is a rematch of a game played two nights ago here, in San Jose.  The Spartans upset Air Force in that game, 59-58.  We'll lay the points with the Falcons in Round 2, as San Jose is a poor 10-23 ATS at home vs. revenge-minded opponents off a loss.  Meanwhile, Air Force falls into a 149-92 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off upset defeats.  Take the Falcons minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Privateers + the points over SE Louisiana.  The Privateers fall into 72-20 and 153-88 ATS systems of mine, and we'll grab the points with New Orleans this afternoon.  They come into this game off back to back road losses at Nicholls State and at Northwestern State.  But New Orleans is a solid 33-16 ATS off back to back road losses, and 18-9 ATS their last 27 conference road games.  Take the Privateers + the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors minus the points over Tennessee State.  The Governors will host Tennessee State this afternoon, and look to snap a 2-game home losing streak, after dropping games to Jacksonville State and Belmont over the previous seven days.  That lowered Austin Peay's record to 8-6.  But the good news for Austin Peay is that .500 (or better) teams, off back to back home losses, have gone 129-86, 60% ATS when priced between -5 and -15 points.  Even better:  the Governors are 29-9 ATS off a loss, when favored by 11 or less points (or PK), if they owned a winning record.  Take Austin Peay minus the points.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Norfolk State Spartans minus the points over Delaware State.  The Spartans had won 4 straight before dropping back to back games at Coppin State last weekend.  But I love them to bounce back at home this afternoon, as they'll face cellar-dwelling Delaware State.  The Hornets have yet to win a game this season, as they are 0-10, including two home losses earlier to Norfolk State.  We'll go against Delaware State this afternoon, as sub-.400 underdogs of more than 13 points have cashed just 26.6 percent since 1990 when playing with double-revenge against a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  And the Hornets are also an awful 1-9 ATS their last 10 when getting 13+ points.  Meanwhile, the Spartans are a solid 15-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses, and 7-1 ATS off back to back road losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern University Jaguars minus the points over Alcorn State.  The Braves come into this game off 3 straight wins, while Southern has dropped its last two games -- both on the road -- to Alabama A&M and Alabama State.  The Jaguars are now 3-6 on the season, but we'll lay the points with Southern as losing teams have gone 105-72 ATS as road favorites off back to back losses.  And Alcorn State is a poor 1-8 ATS at home vs. losing teams.  Take Southern.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers + the points over Baylor.  Not many teams have been able to test the Bears this season, but I love Auburn in this game.  The Tigers got off to a slow start, with 4 ATS losses out of the gate.   But they've gone 9-3-1 ATS since then, including a perfect 6-0 ATS their last six.  And this 6-game ATS win streak has coincided with arrival of freshman point guard Sharife Cooper, who was ruled eligible by the NCAA after he missed the season's first 11 games.  Auburn's 88-82 win over 12th-ranked Missouri this week was most impressive.  Bruce Pearl's Tigers were led by Cooper, who poured in 28 points, and added eight rebounds and seven assists.  And Pearl's teams have gone 37-20-2 ATS against .790 (or better) opposition when not favored by 2+ points.  Don't be surprised if this game goes down to the wire.  Grab the points with Auburn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Longwood Lancers minus the points over Presbyterian Blue Hose.  Longwood has been installed as a small road favorite this evening, and we'll lay the points, as Presbyterian is a woeful 27.7% ATS when not getting 7+ points.  Even better:  the Blue Hose won 71-56 at High Point on Monday, but are a wallet-busting 3-10 ATS off a road win.  And, finally, Longwood falls into a 103-53 ATS 'contrarian' system of mine which plays on certain road favorites with a losing record.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers minus the points over Tennessee-Martin.  We played on the Panthers two nights ago, at home vs. SIU-Edwardsville, and came up short when the Panthers were upset by the Cougars, 87-74.  That was Eastern Illinois' 2nd straight upset defeat, as they also lost, 65-54, at Tennessee St last Saturday.  The good news, though, for tonight's game is that NCAA teams have cashed 61.8% on the road vs. conference foes, if they were off back to back double-digit upset losses.  And if their opponent was off an upset win (as Tennessee-Martin is), then our 61.8% angle zooms to 71% since 1990.  Lay the points with Eastern Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors + the points over Belmont.  The Governors will look to bounce back from Saturday's 76-70 upset loss at the hands of Jacksonville St., as a 4-point home favorite.  They'll welcome the red-hot Bruins, who come into this game off a monstrous 52-point win against SIU-Edwardsville.  And that was Belmont's 13th straight win, as well.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off 40-point SU/ATS wins are an awful 21.4% over the last 31 years as road favorites vs. foes off upset losses.  And the Governors have cashed 63% since 1990 off an upset loss vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Austin Peay + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves minus the points over Valparaiso.  The Crusaders upset Illinois State not once, but twice last weekend on the road.  They're back home tonight to take on the 9-7 Braves.  But Valpo is 0-9 ATS its last nine (and 10-24 ATS its last 34) off an upset win, if matched up against .534 (or better) opposition.  Lay the points with Bradley.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Baylor.  We picked Baylor at the start of the season (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's championship, so its 14-0 start hasn't surprised us.  We did go against the Bears once this year, and got the $$$ with Alcorn St., as a 43-point underdog.  And we'll also take the big number with the revenge-minded Wildcats tonight, as they lost, 100-69, earlier this season to Baylor.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded underdogs off a SU loss have gone 129-79 ATS vs. .850 (or better) foes, if our underdog lost the previous meeting by more than 21 points.  Take Kansas State + the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Boise State.  This is great matchup in Fort Collins tonight, as the Rams are 11-3, while Boise is 12-1.  And these two teams will also get together on Friday night for a second game.  We'll take Colorado State in this game, as home underdogs with a winning record have gone 130-96 ATS vs. foes on a 10-game (or longer) win streak, if that foe was off a 15-point SU/ATS win in its previous game.  Take the Rams + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Missouri State Bears + the points over Drake.  We played (and lost) on the Bears last night.  But we will come right back with them in this rematch, as the Bears are 18-3-1 ATS at home when they were playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and priced from -1 to +5 points.   And Drake, by virtue of its undefeated record, falls in negative 6-25 and 79-125 ATS systems of mine that go against undefeated road favorite. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons upset Pitt, 76-75, on Saturday, and that was their 2nd straight ATS win.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have lost their last four games, straight-up (and last five ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with the Demon Deacons, and go against the ice-cold Wolfpack.  But be careful.  Since 1990, NCAA teams off 3 losses have gone 107-53 ATS as home favorites of -7 (or more points), when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if that opponent also covered two games back.  Take the Wolfpack to blow out Wake Forest.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Carolina Catamounts plus the points over VMI.  The Catamounts have lost their last five games, including the last three ATS.  But off this string of bad games, we'll step in and take the points with Western Carolina as a road underdog.  Indeed, road teams have gone 158-117 ATS off 5+ losses (and 3+ ATS losses), if they weren't getting 6+ points.  And Western Carolina also falls into 83-29, 48-16 and 46-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Catamounts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Florida.  The Commodores were blown out by 21 points, 92-71, at home, in their last game.  But off that horrible defeat, we'll take the Commodores as a double-digit road underdog on Wednesday, as they're 8-0-1 ATS after giving up 85 points.  And SEC double-digit underdogs are a powerful 108-57 ATS vs. .636 (or better) conference foes since 1990 after losing by more than 11 points in their previous game.  Take Vanderbilt + the double-digits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Georgia Tech.  This isn't your grandfather's Blue Devils team.  Duke enters tonight on a 3-game losing streak and, even worse, a five-game ATS losing streak.  And it's been almost 5 years since the last time Duke was on a 5-game ATS losing streak, and it's been more than 5 years since the Blue Devils had lost 3 games in a row.  The reason, of course, is that Mike Krzyzewski's team has been a model of consistency.  And nowhere is that evident more in how his team has responded off ATS losses.  Indeed, dating back to 1997, Duke is 159-103 ATS in the regular season as a favorite on an ATS losing streak.  And if the Devils were off 3 ATS losses, then our records zooms to 23-7 ATS.  Even better:  Georgia Tech has had little success vs. Duke over the years, as it's lost the last 13 games in a row, and 47 of the last 55.  And the Yellow Jackets are a wallet-busting 18-35-1 ATS over their last 54 meetings with Duke.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville.  Eastern Illinois is 5-10 on the season, and comes into tonight's game on a 5-game losing streak, including an upset loss, 65-54, at Tennessee State, on Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to try to fade the ice cold Panthers.  But consider that sub-.400 teams are 23-2-2 ATS in the regular season, including 11-0 ATS their last 11, off an upset loss, if they were also on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak.  Lay the points with Eastern Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Missouri State Bears + the points over Drake.  This is an historic match-up -- at least in betting circles -- as the 11-0 ATS Bulldogs (13-0 straight-up) will take on the 7-1 ATS Bears (9-1 straight-up).  And never in the last 31 years has there been a match-up of two teams with ATS records this good.  If there will be a problem for Drake tonight, it very well could be the fact that they've not played in over three weeks due to the coronavirus.  Among sports handicappers, there is always the debate of "rest vs. rust," and I personally have always believed that extended rest leads to "rusty" play -- especially with teams that were overperforming prior to their break.  We'll fade Drake tonight, as it falls into negative 34-52, 126-182, and 63-158 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, .890 (or better) home underdogs have gone 11-0 ATS their last 11 when they were on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  Take Missouri State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Pioneers + the points over North Dakota State.  Minus their two leading scorers, the Pioneers were competitive in defeat last night.  They were a big, double-digit underdog here, in Fargo, but managed to cover the  point spread in a 70-58 loss -- their 11th straight, overall.  I expect Denver's Jase Townsend to return from his ankle injury tonight, and his scoring will be welcome.  We'll take the Pioneers + the points, as NCAA double-digit underdogs, off 10+ losses, have gone 198-143 ATS if they were playing with revenge, and their opponent wasn't off 3 SU/ATS losses.  And Denver also falls into a 433-271 ATS system of mine which plays on certain sub-.200 teams to bounce back off losses.  Take the Pioneers + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Lipscomb Bisons minus the points over Florida Gulf Coast.  Last night, the Eagles upset the favored Bisons, 79-69, as a 6.5-point road underdog.  We'll back the home team tonight in the rematch, as NCAA home teams, with win percentages between .400 and .750 have covered 62.6% since 1990 off back to back upset losses at home.  Lay the points with Lipscomb.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cal Poly SLO Mustangs + the points over Cal Irvine.  These two teams battled here, in Irvine, last night, and the Anteaters came away with a 68-49 victory, as a 16-point home favorite.  That moved Cal Irvine's season record to 5-4 SU and 5-3 ATS.  Unfortunately, Cal Irvine is a poor 8-22 ATS when favored by more than 10 points against revenge-minded conference foes, if Irvine owned a winning ATS ledger.  And Cal Poly has cashed 60% over the last 31 years as a double-digit dog off a double-digit defeat, when matched up against foes off back to back wins.  Finally, Big West Conference home teams, off back to back ATS wins, have covered just 25.8% over the last 31 years vs. foes off 3 ATS losses.  Take Cal Poly SLO + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils + the points over Prairie View.  The Delta Devils are still looking for their first win this season, as they're 0-12 after getting annihilated by 41 points at Southern, on Monday.  But NCAA underdogs of 11+ points have been reliable when playing at home off a loss by more than 38 points.  Over the last 30 years, they've rebounded off such embarrassing defeats to cover 67% of the time.  Take Mississippi Valley State + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks + the points over Morehead State.  These two teams are headed in opposite directions:  Morehead State has won its last six games, while the Skyhawks have dropped eight straight.  But as is often my wont, I will go against the "hot" Eagles, and take the points with the "cold" Skyhawks.  Indeed, Tennessee-Martin falls into several of my better contrarian angles, with records of 122-59 and 425-237 ATS since 1990.  Also, in this series, the underdog has covered five of six when getting 11+ points.  And Morehead has covered just 43 of 105 when favored by 6+ points.  Take Tennessee-Martin.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over New Mexico.  These two Mountain West teams met Thursday here in St George, and the Lobos prevailed, 67-51, as an 8-point favorite, to snap a 2-game losing streak.  Meanwhile, the Spartans' own losing streak was extended to five games.  The line is higher for this rematch, and we will happily take the points with the underdog Spartans.  Indeed, New Mexico has covered just six of 24 off a double-digit "home" win.  And San Jose falls into 82-30, 50-13 and 29-2 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off 3+ losses.  Take San Jose + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over UConn.  Both teams enter this game off upset losses:  the Huskies fell at home, 74-70, as a 6.5-point favorite vs. St Johns, while Creighton was stunned here at home, by an identical 74-70 score, by Providence on Wednesday.  And that was Creighton's 2nd straight defeat, as it also lost at Butler last Saturday.  We'll take the Bluejays to bounce back today, as they're a terrific 18-0 straight-up, and 17-0-1 ATS when they were off exactly two losses, and favored by more than 3 points against conference foes.  Take the Bluejays to blow out Connecticut.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  UTSA returns home to the Alamo City to face Southern Miss after an 0-2 SU/ATS road trip at Louisiana Tech.  Meanwhile, Southern Miss comes into the Lone Star State off back to back SU/ATS home wins over Middle Tennessee.  We'll take the Roadrunners tonight, as they LOVE playing in front of their home faithful.  Indeed, since February 2018, they're 19-5 ATS their last 24 at home, including a perfect 4-0 ATS vs. foes off 2 SU/ATS wins.  And Texas San Antonio also falls into 251-167, 424-245 and 394-241 ATS systems of mine.  Finally, the Golden Eagles are a wallet-busting 3-22-1 ATS as underdogs of less than 13 points (or PK) vs. sub-.720 foes, if the Golden Eagles were off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Roadrunners minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Wichita State.  The Tigers return home off an upset loss at Tulsa on Sunday.  Memphis was favored by 2 points in that game, yet fell by 1 point, 58-57.  And that was Memphis' seventh straight ATS defeat.  We'll take Penny Hardaway's men to break their ATS losing streak tonight, as NCAA teams off a conference road loss, that were on a 7-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, have gone 171-129 ATS, including 19-9 its last 28 vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Additionally, the favorite has cashed 5 of 6 in this series.  Lay the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs minus the points over North Carolina Asheville.  These two teams met here in Boiling Springs yesterday, and NC-Asheville came away with a 79-75 victory as a 1-point road favorite.  We'll take the home team to avenge that home loss, as NCAA teams have gone 78-56 ATS in the 2nd of back to back meetings between the teams, if they lost at home in the first meeting, and were not an underdog of more than 1 point in that first game.  Even better:  Gardner-Webb has cashed 17 of 23 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, while Asheville has covered just 9 of 29 off an ATS win.  Take Gardner-Webb.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Mercer Bears minus the points over The Citadel.  After an 8-0 start, the Bulldogs have lost their last three games (vs Furman, at VMI and at NC Greensboro).  We played against The Citadel in two of those, and will play against them here, at home, this afternoon.  Indeed, The Citadel is a wallet-breaking 0-6 ATS its last six, and 25-48 ATS its last 73 at home off 3+ losses.  And it's 0-16-1 ATS its last 17 (and 14-37-1 its last 52) at home off a double-digit road loss.  Lay the points with Mercer.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets lost SU/ATS in their last game, as they fell 95-94 to Akron.  And that ended an 8-game win streak (and 7-game ATS win streak).  Toledo is a poor 1-8 ATS at home off a loss, while the Chips are 28-16 ATS their last 44 MAC Conference games.  Central Michigan also falls into a 424-244 ATS system of mine.  Take CMU + the points.  Good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV.  We were 7-1 in basketball over the weekend.  Our one losing selection was on these Lobos against this same UNLV team when they played on Saturday here, at Thomas & Mack Center.  The Rebels blew out the Lobos by 23 in that game but, at the risk of being stubborn, we'll come right back with New Mexico today.  Notwithstanding its SU/ATS win on Saturday, UNLV is still a wallet-breaking 2-11 ATS its last 13, and 39-71-3 ATS its last 113 at home vs. conference foes, if the Rebels were favored by more than 8 points.  And if the Rebels were priced from -10 to -14.5 points vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes, then they've gone 2-19 ATS.  Additionally, so far in 2021, NCAA road underdogs off exactly one loss, that lost earlier in the season to their opponent, and failed to cover in that previous defeat by more than 12 points, have gone 14-5 ATS, including 7-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +17 points.  Finally, home favorites of 12+ points, off back to back wins, have covered just 59 of 167 vs. Mountain West foes.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wright State Raiders minus the points over Cleveland State.  These two teams met yesterday here, in Dayton, and the Raiders were upset by the Vikings, 66-64, as a 9.5-point favorite.  We'll play on the Raiders to bounce back this evening, as they're 5-0 ATS at home when playing with revenge from an upset home loss, and they're 17-6 ATS off an upset loss when playing a foe off back to back wins.  Finally, the Raiders fall into a 320-188 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset defeats.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos plus the points over UNLV.  For years, the UNLV Rebels have been one of the worst-performing point spread teams at home.  And that's much to the chagrin of their fans who have lost a lot of money betting on them at the local casinos.  Today, the Rebels have been installed as a double-digit favorite, notwithstanding the fact they've yet to win a Mountain West Conference game.  We'll take New Mexico + the points, as UNLV is a dismal 1-11 ATS their last 12, and 38-71-3 ATS their last 112 at home vs. conference foes, if the Rebels were favored by more than 8 points.  And if the Rebels were priced from -10 to -14.5 points vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes, then they've gone 1-19 ATS.  Take New Mexico plus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over UCLA.  The Bruins are undefeated in Pac-12 play with a 6-0 record (and 5-1 ATS), while Washington is bringing up the rear at 0-7 SU (and 1-6 ATS).  We'll grab the points as NCAA teams have cashed 66.4% away from home , if they were off 4 SU/ATS losses, and were matched up against a .733 (or better) conference foe off at ATS win.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers + the points over UAB.  Yesterday, the Blazers were embarrassed at home, 61-37, by Alabama-Birmingham.  And Charlotte was actually favored in that game by 2 points.  The oddsmakers have made an adjustment for this afternoon's game, so Charlotte is now the home underdog.  And we will happily take the points with the 49ers in the rematch, as home teams off 8-point upset home losses have cashed 62.2% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  the 49ers are 10-1 ATS their last 11 as a home underdog.  And they're 6-0-2 ATS their last eight off an upset defeat.  Take the 49ers + the points to bounce back this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the VMI Keydets minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU and 5-0 ATS this season, while VMI is 5-6, but a more-than-respectable 6-3 ATS.  We'll go against The Citadel this afternoon, as .875 (or better) underdogs of more than 4 points (at Game 9 forward) have cashed just 65 of 165 games away from home, if they were on a 3-game (or better) ATS win streak.  Additionally, VMI is 21-10 ATS vs. .770 (or better) opponents.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Colgate Raiders minus the points over Holy Cross.  We played on Holy Cross last Sunday as a double-digit underdog at Army, and were rewarded with an outright win by the Crusaders.  But we will go against them this afternoon, as they're 0-11 ATS off a win.  Even better:  the Raiders are off a momentum-building 89-45 road win over Boston U., as a 5-point favorite.  And NCAA teams that covered the spread by more than 38 points on the road in their previous game have gone 71% ATS since 1990.  Lay the points with Colgate.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Titans minus the points over Wisconsin-Green Bay.  The Titans have gotten off to a miserable 0-4 start in Horizon League play, while Green Bay is 3-5 after winning its last three league games.  We'll lay the points with Detroit tonight, as home favorites have cashed 59% since 1990 vs. conference foes off back to back wins, if our home team was 0-4 (or worse) in conference play.  Take Detroit.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars minus the points over Appalachian State.  On the surface, these two teams are going in opposite directions.  The Jaguars are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Mountaineers have won and covered 3 straight.  But NCAA favorites on 3-game SU/ATS losing streaks have covered 60% over the last 31 years vs. foes off 3-game SU/ATS winning streaks, including 68.4% if our favorite was off a double-digit loss in its previous game.  With the Jaguars in off an 83-69 loss at Coastal Carolina, our 68.4% tightener is satisfied.  Take South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers over UAB.  This is the front-end of a 2-game series played here in Charlotte, and we'll take the homestanding 49ers.  Charlotte is 5-5 this season after dropping its last game, 75-72, to Belmont Abbey, while UAB is 9-1.  But the Blazers have lost each of their last three games ATS, which is not a positive signal for this game tonight.  Inded, dating back to 1992, .895 (or better) College teams (at Game 8 forward) off back to back ATS defeats, have covered just 32 percent away from home against an opponent which wasn't a winning team, including 20% ATS if they weren't favored by 8+ points.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers + the points over NC Asheville.  The coronavirus has greatly impacted the schedules this college basketball season.  Many leagues have gone to a format of two teams playing back to back games at a single venue.  The Big South Conference is one of those.  These two teams played here, in Asheville, yesterday, and the Bulldogs blew out the Buccaneers, 92-54.  We'll take the underdog in this rematch, as Charleston Southern falls into 99-51, 422-236 and 153-101 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, this season, in these back to back games, teams that failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points have covered 63%, while teams off straight-up losses by 25+ points have covered 67%.  Take the Buccaneers + the points.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over the Southern Cal Trojans.  It's true that these two teams are going in opposite directions.  Washington has lost its last six games (including 0-5 ATS its last 5), while USC is on a 4-game win streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the homestanding Trjoans, and lay the points.  But consider that Washington is a solid 27-12 ATS off 3+ losses when playing an opponent off back to back wins.  And road underdogs of +12 (or more) points, off 4 SU/ATS losses, have gone 123-59 ATS vs. .760 (or better) conference foes.  Take the Huskies + the large number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Purdue. This Hoosier State rivalry has been one-sided of late, with the Boilermakers taking each of the last seven meetings.  But this game sets up well for an Indiana victory.  The Boilermakers pulled a big upset in their last game when they went into East Lansing, and defeated Michigan State, 55-54, as a 6-point underdog.  Unfortunately, they're an awful 3-11 ATS off an upset win.  And they're also a wallet-breaking 31-59-6 ATS as single-digit road underdogs.  Meanwhile, Indiana is a terrific 65-38-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 4 points, while Purdue has covered just 3 of 13 vs. double-revenge-minded foes it defeated twice the previous season.  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a spotless 8-0 record (and a 4-0 ATS record).  But the fact that they've had five non-lined games reveals the schedule has been filled with non-Division I foes.  So, half of The Citadel's wins have come against the likes of Piedmont, Toccoa Falls, Columbia International, and Carver Bible, while the other half were versus NC A&T, Longwood, Presbyterian and UT-Chattanooga.  Furman, on the other hand, is 8-3, but its three losses were road games against Cincinnati, Alabama and Winthrop.  We'll go against the undefeated Bulldogs, as .850 (or better) double-digit home underdogs have covered just 31% over the past 25 seasons.  Moreover, the pace of the game will play into the hands of the Paladins.  One thing is certain about this afternoon's game:  it will be high-scoring.  Unlike, say, the "Runnin' Bulldogs" of Gardner-Webb, whose games "only" average 146 points, the Bulldogs of The Citadel REALLY LOVE to run, as their games, on average, total 162.50, while Furman's games average 153.54.  Historically, Furman's been great in this point spread role, as the Paladins are a powerful 26-5 ATS as road favorites of -6+ points.  Lay the big number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Alabama.  After an uncharacteristic 1-6 start to the 2020-21 season, the Wildcats have righted themselves in SEC Conference play with 3 straight wins to start the SEC schedule.  And Saturday's win in Gainesville was their most impressive, as they upset Florida, 76-58, as a 5.5-point road underdog.  The Wildcats are back home tonight to take on an Alabama team which has gotten off to a 4-0 SEC start.  We'll take the home team, as Kentucky is a reliable 67-31-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 14 points, if its opponent was off back to back wins!  Meanwhile, Alabama falls into a negative 34% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off 5+ wins.  And the Crimson Tide are a poor 19-40 ATS off 5+ wins.  Take Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Holy Cross Crusaders + the points over Army.  These two Patriot League rivals met yesterday in Worcester, Mass. and the Black Knights got the better of Holy Cross, with a 15-point road win, 83-68, as a 5.5-point favorite.  That lowered Holy Cross' season point spread record to 2-1 ATS.  But unlike many conferences this season, which are having their teams play two straight games against an opponent in the same location, the Patriot League has scheduled its back to back meetings in the traditional manner, with one home, and one away game.  So, this game will be played at Army.  We'll take the Crusaders in this afternoon's rematch, as they've covered 34 of 59 road games, and also fall into an 87-41 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road underdogs off SU/ATS losses.  Even better:  since 1991, teams off a loss in the first meeting of a "back-to-back" have covered the spread in the 2nd meeting 59% of the time, if they owned a winning ATS record on the season, including 10-1 ATS in 2021 if they failed to cover the spread in the first meeting by more than 8 points.  Take Holy Cross.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Southern Utah.  The Thunderbirds have won eight straight, while the Vandals have lost eight straight after Thursday night's game between these two teams, won by Southern Utah, 85-80, as a 14.5-point favorite.  Still, Idaho easily covered the double-digit spread.  But these two teams' divergent won/loss streaks have worked to create point spread value for the underdog.  And we'll happily step in and take the points with Idaho, as it's 64-35 ATS on the road off a road loss, including 23-6 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Meanwhile, Southern Utah is a horrid 14-36 ATS at home off an ATS defeat.  I look for the Vandals to easily cover the spread here again this afternoon.  Take Idaho + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks + the points over Oral Roberts.  The Eagles have been installed as a double-digit home favorite following their back to back wins (and covers) at Nebraska-Omaha last weekend.  But they're an awful 15-36 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, and 24-46 ATS off back to back wins.  Grab the points with North Dakota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tarleton St. Texans + the points over Grand Canyon.  The Antelopes have gotten out to a 6-0 ATS start this season.  But they're now favored by a significant amount on the road and, by my numbers, the line is inflated.  And, even more important, is the fact that Grand Canyon has only covered the point spread by, on average, 4.83 ppg.  And that number is exceptionally low for a team which has started a season with at least 6 ATS wins.  Indeed, there have been 221 events where a team was 6-0 (or better) against the spread.  And a 4.83 average line differential ranks 210th of the 221.  That low number indicates that the Antelopes 6-0 ATS record is due more to randomness than their superior play.  Not surprisingly, teams that start the season with a 6-0 ATS (or better) record have gone 8-24 ATS if their average line differential wasn't greater than 6.10.  Take Tarleton St. + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Central Connecticut State Blue Devils + the points over Bryant.  This is a rematch of a game played yesterday, won by Bryant, 93-68.  But off that loss, we'll take the Blue Devils in the rematch.  This season, because of COVID-19, it's commonplace for conferences to schedule back-to-back meetings between schools.  And the team which lost the first meeting has covered the second 62 of 113 (55%).  Even better:  double-digit road underdogs are 146-109 ATS in the 2nd meeting when playing with revenge from a 25-point loss in the first meeting of the season.  Take Central Connecticut St.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over SMU.  The Bearcats lost at home, 70-66, to Tulsa this past Saturday.  And that was Cincy's fifth straight defeat (and fourth straight as a favorite).  Tonight, the Bearcats will be in Dallas to play an SMU team off a home loss to Houston (after starting the season with six straight wins).  We'll grab the points with Cincinnati, as it's 23-10 ATS as an underdog off back to back losses.  Even better:  NCAA Basketball teams off 4+ upset losses have cashed 73.9% over the last 31 years.  Grab the points with John Brannen's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays minus the points over Seton Hall.  The Blue Jays have won their last four games, and are 8-2 SU on the season, though they failed to cover each of their last 3 games.  Meanwhile, the Pirates are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS after winning their last 3 games SU/ATS.  We'll take Creighton to snap its ATS losing streak tonight as .800 (or better) home teams, at Game 11 forward, off 3+ wins, but 3+ ATS losses, have covered 69% since 1990 vs foes off an ATS win.  And the Blue Jays are also 30-15 ATS at home off back to back ATS defeats, if they weren't favored by more than 12 points.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats' Jason Preston (16.8 ppg, 7.4 assists) won't play today due to a lower body injury, and that's enough for me to pull the trigger on the double-digit underdog Huskies.  Northern Illinois is a fantastic 55-30 ATS as road underdogs of +8 (or more) points.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs minus the points over Campbell.  These two teams met here, in Boiling Springs, yesterday.  And the Fighting Camels came away with a 70-61 upset win.  Off that loss, we'll lay the points with the home team, as the Runnin' Bulldogs are 39-24 ATS their last 63.  And they also fall into a 153-101 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain home (or neutral-sited) teams that were upset by their opponent previously in the season.  Take Gardner-Webb.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers + the points over Winthrop.  The Eagles won Round 1 yesterday, 85-69, and covered by a point.  We'll take Charleston Southern this afternoon in this rematch, as the Eagles have covered just 30.7% vs. foes off SU/ATS losses.  And Winthrop also falls into a negative 41-84 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams vs. foes off SU/ATS losses.  Take Charleston Southern + the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over Wyoming.  This is a rematch of a game played here on Saturday.  The Cowboys upset the Bulldogs, 78-74, in that one, as a 2-point underdog.  We'll play on the home team tonight, as Fresno is 10-0 ATS its last 10 conference games off a home loss, while Wyoming is a wallet-busting 29-66 ATS off a win away from home, if their opponent is off a straight-up loss.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Illinois Salukis + the points over Drake.  The Salukis lost here yesterday, 73-55, so they will get a 2nd opportunity this evening to hand the Bulldogs their first loss of the season.  We'll grab the points with the road underdog, as Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 137-87 ATS when playing with revenge from an 18-point conference loss, provided they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  Take Southern Illinois + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers + the points over Winthrop.  The Eagles are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS, while the Bucs are 1-5 SU and 0-5 ATS on the season after being upset twice by Hampton in their last two games.  But off those two upset losses, we'll grab the points with the Bucs, as home teams off back to back upset losses are 107-77 ATS, including 20-9 ATS as an underdog.  Take the Bucs.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Bowling Green.  The Huskies are at home this evening where they hope to get off the schneid "in Vegas," as they're a woeful 0-7 ATS.  They'll host the Falcons, who upset Ohio as a 6-point underdog on Thursday.  By my numbers, their poor performance has led to us getting value in this point spread, and we'll grab the points.  For technical support, notwithstanding their 7-game ATS losing streak, consider that the Huskies are 35-22 ATS long-term off back to back ATS losses, when installed as an underdog in Mid-American conference games.  And NCAA teams have gone 10-0 ATS at home, if they started the season on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Northern Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Tulsa.  Cincy has lost its last four games, with the last three coming in the favorite role.  The good news for the Bearcats is that NCAA favorites off an upset road loss, and 3 upset losses overall, have cashed 60% over the past 20 years.  Take the Bearcats to blow out Tulsa.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points over Cal State Fullerton.  The Gauchos will be playing their seventh game of the season, while Fullerton has played just once thus far (a game against non-Division I San Diego Christian).  So, Fullerton may be a bit "behind" UCSB when it comes to execution tonight.  And in this COVID environment, where some programs have gotten late starts, they've been poor ATS when playing away from home, if it was one of their first three games, while their opponent has played at least six games.  Our "less experienced" schools have covered just five of 19 games thus far (including 0-7 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +21 points).  Even worse for Fullerton:  UCSB has started its Big West Conference schedule with two upset losses at Cal Irvine.  But NCAA home teams have covered 70% over the last 31 years off back to back upset road losses to start a conference schedule.  With the Gauchos 8-1 ATS vs. the Titans when laying 6+ points, we'll back the home team on New Year's Day.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Gophers are 9-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road, at Illinois.  At home, Minnesota is 9-0, with a 7-2 ATS record.  Unfortunately, this game on Thursday afternoon is on the road.  We played against Minnesota in that earlier game at Illinois, and got the $$$ with a 92-65 blowout win.  And we'll play against Minnesota again today in this road game.  Indeed, the Gophers are a wallet-busting 20-58 ATS on the Big 10 road when priced from -1 to +11 points!  Yikes!  And Wisky is 37-18 ATS vs. .810 (or better) Big 10 foes here, in Madison.  Take the Badgers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders + the points over Davidson.  The Spiders were upset at home in their last game, 76-71, by Hofstra.  And Richmond was a 12-point favorite in that ballgame.  But off that defeat, we'll take Richmond to bounce back on the road this evening, as it's 11-1 ATS in conference games off an upset loss, if it failed to cover by 9+ points in that defeat.  And Richmond also falls into a great 70-29 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in conference games off upset losses.  Take Richmond.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Alcorn State Braves + the points over Baylor.  The Bears are undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- and ranked #2 in the country behind Gonzaga.  That's good news for us, as Baylor was my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's NCAA Championship.  But we will go against the Bears today, and take the points with Alcorn State.  The Braves will have an advantage this afternoon, as Baylor had to play less than 24 hours ago vs. Central Arkansas -- a game Baylor won by 37.  Additionally, the Bears fall into a negative 38-82 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back ATS wins, while the Braves fall into a 92-44 ATS system which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Grab the double-digits with Alcorn State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over Chattanooga.  The Moccasins are 9-0 on the season, but they should taste defeat for the first time this afternoon.  Last year, the Paladins swept the season series, 2-games-to-none, and they've won the last 7, by an average of 12.4 ppg.  Moreover, unbeaten, revenge-minded teams, like Chattanooga, with a 9-0 (or better) record, are a horrid 5-24-1 ATS their last 30, including 0-12-1 ATS their last 13, when getting more than 4 points.  Take Furman.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas St Wildcats minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season their last time out -- a 70-46 blowout of the Jacksonville Dolphins, as a 12-point favorite.  In that game, the Wildcats outshot Jacksonville, 45% to 34%, and outrebounded the Dolphins, 45-22.  We'll take Kansas State tonight, as it falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 411-305 ATS, which plays on certain home teams off wins by 22+ points when not favored in their current game by more than 13 points.  Even better:  the Wildcats are a dominant 34-14 ATS at home when favored by less than 24 points, if they won their previous game by double-digits.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wofford Terriers + the points over Mercer.  Last year, the Bears upset Wofford not once, but twice, en route to a 12-6 Southern Conference record.  But you know what they say about "paybacks."  And Wofford falls into a 68.1% ATS 'revenge' system of mine which plays on certain teams that were upset by their opponent in their previous meeting.  Additionally, notwithstanding its loss at Mercer last season, the Terriers are still 22-6 ATS their last 28 games away from home vs. Southern Conference rivals.  Take Wofford.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Purdue.  This is a horrible spot for the Boilermakers, who have to travel to Piscataway to face the #14-ranked Scarlet Knights immediately after they fell to Ohio State.  That game snapped Rutgers' 6-game win streak (and 3-game ATS win streak).  And the Knights are an awesome 16-1 ATS at home when priced from -9 to +8.5 points.  Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are a woeful 30-58 ATS as single-digit road underdogs.  Take Rutgers minus the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Indiana St. Sycamores + the points over Drake.  The Bulldogs were the first team to reach 10 wins this season after they downed the Sycamores on Sunday, 81-63, here, in Terre Haute.  But we will fade Drake on this Monday afternoon, as revenge-minded Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 137-85 ATS if they lost the meeting earlier in the season by 18+ points, and are not favored by more than 3 points in the current game.  Even better:  NCAA home underdogs off a SU/ATS loss have covered 71% against undefeated teams with an 8-0 (or better) record that both won and covered their previous game by 7+ points.  Take Indiana State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Utah State.  In our current COVID-19 environment, many conferences have adapted by scheduling back-to-back games between the same teams, on the same court.  So, after the Aggies blew out the Spartans, 107-62, here on Monday night, they'll face off again today.  And we'll take the Spartans + the double-digits tonight, as teams playing with revenge from a 40-point loss earlier in the season are 89-64-4 ATS their last 157.  And Mountain West Conference underdogs of more than 13 points have gone 109-61 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Kansas City.  After going 6-0 SU/ATS to start the season (all six games were at home), the Billikens were upset on the road by Minnesota, 90-82, on Sunday.  But St. Louis is back home tonight.  And it has always been a strong home team, not just to start this season.  Indeed, the Billikens are 41-19-1 ATS their last 61 at home, and 217-164-4 ATS their last 385.  Additionally, the Kangaroos have covered just 38% as underdogs over the last 30 seasons off back to back wins.  Take St. Louis.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Pepperdine Waves minus the points over Cal Bakersfield.  The Waves were upset, 75-63, as a 2.5-point home favorite on Saturday by UCSB.  But off that loss, we'll take the Waves to blow out the Roadrunners, as Pepperdine falls into a 64% "bounce-back" system of mine.  Even better:  over the last 20 seasons, the Waves have cashed 69% at home off a home upset loss, while the Roadrunners have covered just 20% vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Pepperdine minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over East Tennessee State.  Nate Oats' men were upset here, at Coleman Coliseum, on Saturday by Western Kentucky.  The Tide were favored by 4.5 points, but lost 73-71 on the heels of a goaltending call which provided the final margin of victory.  But off that home loss, we'll lay the big number tonight with the Crimson Tide.  Alabama's a fantastic 29-13 ATS off a home upset loss, while Southern Conference teams have covered just 38% vs. SEC teams off an upset loss.  And Alabama also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off an upset loss.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC Greensboro Spartans minus the points over NC A&T.  The 3-8 Aggies have been installed as a double-digit underdog this evening against their crosstown rivals in this 21st edition of the "Battle for the Boro."  But they're a dismal 0-14 SU and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14 when getting 11 or more points.  And the Aggies also were blown out by the Spartans last season, 83-50.  Even worse for NC A&T:  it may be without leading scorer (and the NCAA's top assist man last season), Kam Langley, tonight, as he's questionable to play.  Regardless of Langley's availability, we're going to fade the Aggies, as they fall into a negative 42-97 ATS system of mine.  Take the Spartans minus the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over Tennessee-Martin.  After starting the season with 4 straight victories, the Rebels were upset, 65-62, at Dayton on Saturday.  And it was the first time the Rebels gave up more than 58 points in a game.  This afternoon, Ole Miss is back home at The Pavilion, where it will welcome a Skyhawks team which is also coming off its first loss of the season.  Tennessee-Martin fell, 81-63, at Western Illinois, as the Leathernecks shot 50% for the game.  Ole Miss is a solid 21-8 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) off an upset loss, while the Skyhawks are a horrid 5-21 ATS their last 26 (and 15-36 their last 51) as a road underdog, including 1-12 ATS when they owned a winning record.  Lay the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors + the points over Murray State.  The Racers were favored by 3 points at home less than two weeks ago against Austin Peay, and won by 30, 87-57.  By my math, the oddsmakers have made too much of an adjustment to set the point spread at roughly the same price on the road.  And especially since Murray State is 4-0 at home, with an average margin of 40 ppg, but 0-2 on the road with a negative scoring margin of -10.5 ppg.  The Governors also fall into a revenge system of mine which is 149-99 ATS.  That angle plays on certain underdogs that have revenge from 20-point (or worse) defeats.  Finally, Murray State is 0-7 ATS its last seven road games off a home win.  Take Austin Peay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Missouri State Bears minus the points over Arkansas-Little Rock.  The Trojans upset Missouri State here last season, 67-66, as a 12.5-point road underdog.  But you know what they say about 'paybacks!'  And the Bears fall into a super 172-119 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 70-32 ATS system which plays on certain home teams, not favored by 3+ points, off back to back wins.  Even better:  the Trojans are a woeful 4-13 ATS when facing a revenge-minded non-conference foe.  Take Missouri State.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Gardner-Webb.  The Runnin' Bulldogs have lost all three of their road games this season, and now have the misfortune of playing the Seminoles, who just dropped their first game of the season -- as a 14.5-point home favorite -- to Central Florida.  But I love FSU to rebound off that upset defeat, as it falls into a 70-37 ATS 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain home favorites after upset losses.  Additionally, ACC Conference teams have covered 62.6% as non-conference favorites of -20 (or more) points off a SU loss (and 76.4% ATS at home if they failed to cover by 10+ in their previous game).  Take the Seminoles.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over South Carolina State.  The Bulldogs are 0-9 SU this season (though they did cover their previous game at Presbyterian), and will be in for a tough task this afternoon in Greenville.  And that's because Furman was upset by Winthrop on Saturday, 87-71, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  That was also the 2nd straight loss for Furman (who were 25-7 last season), so Bob Richey's men will no doubt be happy to see the Bulldogs today so they can take out their frustration.  Furman has excelled in favorite role, and especially when laying a big number, as it is 45-18 ATS when laying more than 8, including 37-10 ATS if Furman owned a winning record, and its opponent had a losing record (and, then, 10-0 ATS in that set if its opponent was off an ATS win).  Take the Paladins minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Wildcats have had an unusually poor start to their season, as they're 3-5, including a 31-point loss (100-69) to #2-ranked Baylor on Saturday.  Their nadir, thus far, was of course their loss to Division II Fort Hays State.  Tonight, they'll face off against the Jacksonville Dolphins, who are 6-3 on the season.  We'll lay the points with K-State, as Big 12 Conference teams are 42-19 ATS as home favorites of more than 9 points after failing to cover the spread by 9+ in their previous game.  And the Wildcats are also 8-0 SU and 6-0 ATS at home after giving up more than 95 points in their previous game.  Lay it.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles + the points over Xavier.  The Musketeers are undefeated after winning back to back upsets over crosstown rival Cincinnati, 77-69, and the Oklahoma Sooners, 99-77.  Unfortunately, undefeated teams have covered just 36.6% since 1990 as a single-digit home favorite off an upset win by more than 10 points.  Even worse, .850 (or better) teams, not favored by more than 13 points, have covered just 34.8% since 1990 at home off back to back upset wins.  Marquette has won and covered the last four games in this series, and plays this afternoon's game off an upset loss at home to Seton Hall.  And Marquette's a solid 43-27 ATS on the conference road off a SU loss when Marquette wasn't favored by more than 5 points.  Take Marquette + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Marist.  In their last game, the Jaspers upset Rider, 87-77, as a 1-point home underdog.  Off that win, we'll play on Manhattan this afternoon, as home teams, off double-digit upset home conference wins, have cashed 58% of conference games since 1990 (212-155 ATS) when not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for the Jaspers today.  As does the fact that it's cashed 64.7% over the last 31 years at home off an upset win, if it was favored against a conference foe.  Finally, the Red Foxes have covered just 14 of 41 games off a SU win.  Lay the small number with the homestanding Jaspers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.