Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee State Tigers minus the points over Alabama A&M.  These two teams met in Huntsville last season, and the Bulldogs upset the Tigers, 82-73.  We'll take the revenge-minded home team tonght, as it falls into an 81-29 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are 22-38 ATS on the road off a SU loss.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Troy.  The Seminoles were upset, 68-54, by Central Florida on Friday, and are now 0-2 on the season.  I love Florida State to bounce back tonight, as it's cashed 73% as a favorite in non-conference games since 1990 when it was off an upset loss, and also lost two games back.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls minus the points over Stetson.  The Hatters stunned Florida State, 83-74, to open their season.  Off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown tonight vs. the Bulls, as South Florida's cashed 60% since 1990 at home vs. non-conference foes off an upset win.  Lay the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Alabama State Hornets + the points over Pepperdine.  The Hornets come into this game off back to back blowout losses, as they lost by 41 to UAB, and by 38 to Southern Cal.  But off those losses, they now fall into a 710-496 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, the Hornets are 16-6 ATS off a loss, while Pepperdine is a soft 43-65 ATS at home in non-conference games.  Grab the points with Alabama State.   Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Pilots minus the points over the Portland State Vikings.  Portland will conclude a 3-game home stand tonight, and seek its 3rd straight win following victories over Lewis & Clark and Florida A&M.  The Pilots are 8-3 SU/ATS vs. their cross-state rival, while Portland State is 0-5 ATS its last 5 non-conference games.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats over Southern U.  Arizona annihilated Nicholls St on Monday, 117-75, and easily covered the 25-point spread.  Today, we'll lay the points, as the Wildcats are 30-2 SU and 23-7-1 ATS in their next game after winning a blowout by 39+ points.  Take Arizona minus the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Arkansas-Pine Bluff.  Both of these teams lost by 1 point in Game 1.  The Sooners fell, 52-51, to the Bearkats of Sam Houston State, while the Golden Lions lost, 73-72, to TCU.  Pine Bluff then bounced back on Wednesday to defeat Champion Baptist, 87-55, and will attempt to make it two-in-a-row tonight, in Norman.  We'll lay the points, as Oklahoma is 18-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in its previous game by more than 9 points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over St Joseph's.  This game will be played at Alumni Hall, in Annapolis, Maryland, and will be part of a double-header televised by the CBS Sports Network.  The Cougars blew out Northern Colorado, 83-36, on Monday.  And that continued a trend where the Cougars are 31-10 ATS as a favorite of -8.5 (or more) points, including 9-0 ATS its last nine.  Houston's also 26-9 ATS when playing on a neutral court.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Alabama State.  Andy Enfield's Trojans lost their season opener to Enfield's former school -- Florida Gulf Coast University -- on Monday.  And USC was favored by 18 points!  We'll take the Trojans to bounce back off that debacle, as they've cashed 74.1% of their regular season, non-conference games off an upset loss.  Take the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Sacred Heart.  The Scarlet Knights blew out Columbia, 75-35 on Monday.  And we'll look for another blowout on this Thursday.  Key stat:  since 1990, Big 10 teams have cashed 60% after holding an opponent to 40 or less points.  The last three times these teams have met, the Knights have won by 23, 25 and 26 points.  And that dovetails with Sacred Heart's previous nine meetings vs. Big 10 schools, as it's lost by an average of 26 ppg.  I look for another blowout tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes minus the points over Hampton.  These two schools have switched conference affiliation this season.  The Dukes left the Colonial Athletic Association for the Sun Belt Conference.  And the Pirates are now in the Colonial Athletic Ass'n, after departing the Big South Conference.  James Madison blew out Valley Forge, 123-38, on Monday, while the Pirates will be playing their first game tonight.  The Dukes fall into 34-13 and 134-72 ATS systems of mine, based on their Game 1 statistics.  And they're 28-13 ATS as double-digit home favorites vs. Colonial Athletic Ass'n foes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Villanova.  We played on each of these teams in the last round, and easily got the $$$ with Kansas -5.5 over Miami (76-50) and Villanova +2.5 over Houston (50-44).  We'll lay the points with the #1-seeded Jayhawks on Saturday, and go against the #2-seeded Wildcats off their upset win.  Indeed, NCAA Tournament #2 seeds are a woeful 0-12-2 ATS off an upset tourney win, if they were an underdog of 6 or less points in their previous game.  And NCAA teams off an upset win, have also gone just 28-49-2 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points.  Even better:  teams (like Kansas) off blowout NCAA Tourney wins by more than 25 points have gone 56-35-4 ATS when priced from +1 to -10 points.  Finally, the Jayhawks are a fantastic 52-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins.  Lay the points with Kansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have certainly been impressive in this year's NIT Tournament.  They kicked things off with a 74-62 win over Alcorn State, and then followed that up with blowouts of Oregon (75-60), Wake Forest (67-52) and Washington State (72-56).  But off those four double-digit wins, we'll fade Texas A&M and grab the points with Xavier.  Indeed, since 1990, NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the non-conference, post-season tournaments when favored by less than 16 points (or PK) off four straight wins by 12+ points.  That doesn't bode well for the Aggies tonight.  Nor does the fact that Xavier is a powerful 43-18-3 ATS as an underdog after covering the spread by 6+ points in its previous game, including 14-1 ATS its last 15 post-season games.  Take the Musketeers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies have no doubt been impressive in their run to Madison Square Garden.  St. Bonaventure was a #5 seed when the bracket was released, and has won three road games (against Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia) to reach this semi-final round.  The Bonnies were underdogs in each of those three games.  But now they are favored. And St. Bonaventure is a wallet-breaking 17-26 ATS as a favorite off an upset win.  So, we'll happily take the points with Xavier.  Moreover, since 1990, NIT Tourney teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 33%.  That bodes well for Xavier tonight.  As does the fact that the Musketeers have covered 77% since 1990 away from home vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Take the underdog Musketeers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:00 pm, in The Basketball Classic, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over Southern Utah.  We played on the Thunderbirds on Saturday vs. Portland, and got the $$$ in a 77-66 blowout win.  But that game was at home, in Cedar City; tonight's game is on the road, in Fresno.  And Southern Utah is a soft 19-28 ATS away from home as an underdog of +8 (or less) points.  It's true that Fresno has failed to cover the spread in its two tournament games (vs. Eastern Washington and Youngstown).  But NCAA teams off back to back ATS losses have covered 59.3% in the post-season since 1990 when favored by more than 5 points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Fresno St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The #1-seeded Jayhawks come into today's game off back to back point spread losses to Creighton and Providence, while Miami has covered all 3 of its Tourney games.  The good news, though, for Bill Self's Jayhawks is that they're an awesome 46-4 SU and 36-13-1 ATS at home, or on neutral courts off back to back ATS losses, if they weren't favored by more than 12 points.  And if the game was a post-season game, then our 36-13-1 stat zooms to 10-1, 91% ATS.  That bodes well for Kansas this afternoon.   As does the fact that Kansas is 51-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins.  Take the Jayhawks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats + the points over Houston.  I have all the respect for the job Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, but I'm going to take the points with Villanova in this Elite 8 matchup.  The Wildcats are an impressive 35-17 straight-up, and 35-13-4 ATS in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3.5 (or less) points, including 14-6-4 ATS as an underdog.  It's true that Houston has won and covered 6 straight games.  But NCAA Tourney favorites (or PK) off 5+ wins/covers are a soft 15-27 ATS.  Take Villanova + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, in the quarterfinals of The Basketball Classic tournament, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Portland.  Southern Utah is at home, and we'll lay the points with the T-Birds, and fade the Pilots, as Portland is a nasty 26-57-2 ATS as an underdog of 14 or less points (or PK) when playing a .640 (or better) opponent.  And, since 1990, Big Sky conference teams have covered 57% at home in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, while West Coast Conference teams have covered just 36% on the road in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with Southern Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the UCLA/North Carolina game.  This is a very much a contrarian play, as both of these teams have been playing high scoring games, of late.  UCLA went over the total in its previous game vs. St. Mary's, and has played six of its last eight over the total.  Meanwhile, North Carolina has gone over in 13 of 18.  And these recent results have triggered a very good 62% Totals system of mine which plays certain tournament games UNDER, based on certain data from the teams' previous games.  In this NCAA Tourney, the Tar Heels have topped 90 points in their first two tournament games -- each of which went over the total.  But off those two very high scoring games, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game against the defensive-minded Bruins.  UCLA is surrendering just 64.2 ppg this season and ranks 14th in the country (of 358 teams) in adjusted defensive efficiency.  In the Bruins' last 12 games as a favorite, UCLA has allowed just 59.5 ppg, and has not allowed any opponent to reach 70 points.  This game will be very low scoring.  Take the UNDER. 

At 9:39 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders over Duke.  The Red Raiders have the best adjusted defensive efficiency numbers in NCAA basketball this season, while Duke ranks #45 in that metric (of the 358 NCAA teams).  And, of the 16 remaining teams, the Blue Devils' defensive efficiency numbers rank #12, ahead of only Providence, Michigan, Purdue and Miami (yes, even lowly Saint Peter's ranks higher than Duke in this metric).  For the season, the Red Raiders have given up just 60.1 ppg, while Duke allows 67.2 ppg (for a differential of 7.05).  And top 2-seeded teams (like Duke), that give up more than 5 ppg on defense than their opponent, and are installed as an underdog (or PK), have covered just 21.4% in the NCAA Tournament over the past 32 years.  That doesn't bode well for Mike Krzyzewski's men tonight.  Nor does the fact that Duke tallied 85 points in their victory over Michigan State, as Duke's a woeful 15-35-2 ATS after scoring more than 78 points.  Finally, Texas Tech is 15-3 ATS its last 18 vs. .571 (or better) foes, while Duke is 1-7 ATS its last eight vs. .571 (or better) opposition.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars come into tonight's home game off back to back SU/ATS home wins over Long Beach St. and Northern Iowa.  BYU was favored by 5 against the Panthers, and that SU/ATS win extended BYU's ATS record as a single-digit home favorite (or PK) to 81-42-1 ATS, including 8-2 ATS in the post-season, and 57-23 ATS if its opponent's offensive avg. was less than 76.5 ppg.  Even better:  Washington St. is a poor 61-93-3 ATS as a single-digit road underdog (or PK).  Lay the points with BYU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the NC Wilmington Seahawks + the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Blue Raiders come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Boston U. (76-46) and Abilene Christian (85-69).  But those two blowouts have triggered a negative 11-47-2 ATS system of mine which goes against certain tourney teams off back to back blowouts.  Additionally, since 1990, underdogs are a solid 57% ATS in tourney title games if both teams enter off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We'll grab the points with NC Wilmington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Xavier.  The 20-13 Musketeers won SU/ATS vs. Florida, 72-56, on Sunday.  But Xavier has covered 2 in a row just once in their past 22 games, and are 15-18 ATS on the season.  That doesn't bode well against the 19-16 SU/21-13 ATS Commodores, who are 6-1 ATS their last seven tourney games, and 11-3 ATS their last 14, overall.  The Musketeers are a poor 23-45-2 ATS as a favorite of -2+ points, including 1-17-1 ATS their last 19 vs. foes with an ATS win percentage > .534.  Take Vanderbilt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears + the points over NC Wilmington.  The Seahawks are 25-9 this season, and have been installed as a favorite in this semi-final game.  Unfortunately, favorites have been poor in the CBI Tourney, including 26.3% ATS if they covered the spread by more than 7 points away from home in their previous game.  Grab the points with Northern Colorado.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over St. Bonaventure.  This will be the 5th-seeded Bonnies' 3rd straight road game in this NIT Tournament.  We'll fade St. Bonaventure, as an underdog vs. the #6-seeded Cavaliers, as higher-seeded underdogs have covered just 32% in the NIT Tourney off back to back NIT wins.  Additionally, the Cavaliers are 82-61 ATS at home in Charlottesville.  Lay the points with Virginia.

At 8:30 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Ohio University Bobcats over Abilene Christian.  Ohio won its first round game, 65-64, vs. Rice, but failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite.  We played against Ohio in that game, but will lay the points with it tonight.   Key stat:  Ohio is 52-26 ATS as a favorite of less than 14 points, if it was off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Bobcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over TCU.  Jamie Dixon's Horned Frogs stunned Seton Hall on Friday, with a 69-42 upset win.  Unfortunately, they are now saddled with the tall task of defeating Arizona, the nation's 2nd best team.  The Wildcats have not lost a home or neutral court game all season (23-0), and they're 74-51 ATS at home or on a neutral court vs. non-conference foes, if their opponent was off a SU win.  It's true that TCU is 19-11 ATS on the season, which is the 3rd best ATS record of any team remaining in the tournament.  But NCAA teams with a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, off a point spread cover by 13+ points, have gone 93-154-6 ATS in non-conference games as an underdog of +7.5 to +18.5 points when matched up against a foe off a point spread defeat.  We'll fade TCU tonight.  Lay the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Notre Dame.  The Red Raiders scored the most points (97) in the opening round of this NCAA tournament, when they laid waste to Montana State in a 35-point victory.  And that bodes well for Texas Tech here, as college basketball tourney teams are currently riding a 35-14-2 ATS run after scoring 95+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over North Texas.  The Over/Under line in this game is 110.5 points.  And that number is the lowest Over/Under line of any of the 5436 games played this season!  Virginia has excelled in games with low Over/Under lines, and especially on the road, where it is 34-17 ATS in games with O/U lines of 130 or less.  The Mean Green, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in 2022 in games with O/U lines of 120 or less.  Grab the points with Virginia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Michigan State.  The Blue Devils have lost five straight games "in Vegas," including their round 1 game vs. Fullerton State, where they won by 17, as an 18.5-point favorite.  We'll look for Duke to get back into the win column -- at least where the point spread is concerned -- as ACC teams are 89-57-5 ATS as a favorite of 13 or less points when they were on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  And Duke is also 39-25-1 ATS their last 65 off 3+ ATS losses (and 15-8-1 ATS their last 24 off 4+ ATS losses).  Take Duke minus the points.

At 5 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the North Carolina-Greensboro minus the points over Boston U.  The Terriers have been poor in the post-season, including 5-14 ATS when the line was 7 points or less.  It's true that UNC-Greensboro is on a 4-game ATS losing streak.  But the Spartans are an awesome 25-9 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their three previous games.  Take North Carolina Greensboro minus the points.

At 3 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars have been dreadful as a road underdog priced between +2.5 and +10 points, as they're 21-50-3 ATS.  Take SMU minus the points.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over the Houston Cougars.  Illinois won, but failed to cover its point spread on Friday, while Houston blew out UAB to reward its bettors.  But off those two results, we'll grab the points with the underdog this afternoon.  Indeed, the Big 10 Conference has excelled over the years as underdogs in the NCAA tournament, and especially when getting 5 or less points, as it's 55-30-4 ATS in this role.  Even better:  the Illini are a superb 110-64-5 ATS off a point spread loss when playing an opponent off a point spread win.  Take Illinois + the points.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Memphis.  The Zags didn't put #16 seed Georgia State away until the later stages of the game.  And that might lead some to think Gonzaga is vulnerable this evening.  I'm not one of those folks, as I believe Gonzaga will win the title this year.  We'll lay the points, as they fall into 54-23 and 85-33 ATS systems of mine which plays on certain #1-seeded teams.  Take Gonzaga minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies upset UConn, 70-63, as a 6.5-point underdog, while Arkansas won, but failed to cover the spread in its 75-71 win over Vermont.  We'll go against New Mexico State as Western Athletic Conference underdogs are an ugly 5-25-1 ATS in non-conference post-season games off a win, if their foe was off an ATS loss.  Take Arkansas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Murray State Racers minus the points over Saint Peter's.  The 15th-seeded Peacocks pulled an improbable upset as an 18.5-point underdog in the first round when they sent John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats packing.  But we will fade Saint Peter's off that huge upset win, as > .600 underdogs that pulled upset wins as a 12-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game have covered the spread in the post-season just 31% the past 32 years.  Take Murray State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over the Ohio Bobcats.  Since its founding in 2008, the CBI Tournament has seen the underdogs dominate in the opening round, with a 57-40-2 ATS record.  And that's the way we'll look tonight, as Rice falls into a 24-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the post-season off a blowout loss.  Take Rice + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Saint Mary's.  The #5-seeded Gaels come into this game off a blowout win over Indiana.  Saint Mary's was favored in that game by 2.5 points, and won by 29.  But the Gaels are an underdog vs. the #4-seed, UCLA.  And that's key, as Saint Mary's has done great over the years as a favorite (252-200-11 ATS), but has been awful as an underdog (81-115-2 ATS).  Additionally, the favorite in match-ups between #4 and #5 seeds has gone 19-4 ATS.  Take UCLA minus the points.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars minus the points over Richmond.  The Spiders pulled off their fourth straight upset when they upended Iowa, 67-63, as a 9.5-point underdog.  But underdogs have covered just 41% in the post-season over the past 32 years off 4 straight upsets.  Take Providence minus the points.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Tennessee.  The Wolverines have been one of the most under-achieving teams this season.  Michigan was tabbed in the preseason to be a Top 5 squad, but has only won 18 of 32 games (14-18 ATS).  The good news for Juwan Howard is that his roster does have a lot of talent.  We'll take the Wolves + the points, as they're 14-7-1 ATS in the post-season as an underdog.  In contrast, the Volunteers have covered just four of 20 non-conference post-season games as a favorite of 8 points or less.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays + the points over Kansas.  These two teams met last season, and the Jayhawks edged the Blue Jays, 73-72.  Both teams come into this game off impressive wins.  Kansas blew out Texas Southern, and covered the 21.5-point spread by 5.5 points.  Creighton also covered by 5.5 points, as it upset San Diego State, 72-69, on Thursday, as a 2.5-point underdog.  However, the Blue Jays suffered a key loss in that game's overtime session when Ryan Kalkbrenner, sustained a knee injury.  Of course, his absence has been accounted for by the oddsmakers, so I have no problem stepping in to take the Blue Jays as a double-digit underdog.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams have covered 60% since 1990 as an underdog of more than 8 points in non-conference, post-season games.  Take Creighton.

At 3 pm, in The Basketball Classic, our selection is on the Western Illinois Leathernecks + the points over Texas El Paso.  Western Illinois has lost its last eight games to the point spread.  But this long ATS losing streak has conferred point spread value to the Leathernecks, and has also set them up in one of my better NCAA systems, which has cashed 70% since 1990.  Moreover, Western Illinois is 10-0-1 ATS in non-conference games, when priced from +3 to +15 points, while UTEP is a poor 8-16 ATS when favored between -3 and -15 points against non-conference opposition.  Finally, UTEP is a wallet-breaking 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the post season.  Take Western Illinois + the points.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over North Carolina.  The Tar Heels played their best game of the season on Thursday, when they crushed Marquette, 95-63.  Unfortunately, they've covered just 22% of non-conference games since 1990 as an underdog (or PK) off a win by more than 10 points.  Meanwhile, the Bears are 43-20-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Take Baylor minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over Oregon.  After a 7-game SU/ATS win streak, the Aggies have lost their last two games ATS.  I look for Texas A&M to get back into the win column (in Vegas) with a cover today vs. the visiting Ducks.  Texas A&M is an awesome 62-33-1 ATS on a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in the post-season.  Take Texas A&M minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Colgate.  The Raiders have won 15 straight games entering this tournament.  And that win streak ranked 3rd behind South Dakota State (21 games) and Murray State (20 games).  Unfortunately, long win streaks don't necessarily equate to ATS success.  And South Dakota State found that out against Providence in early action, on Thursday.  We played against South Dakota State yesterday, and will also fade Colgate on Friday night.  Indeed, teams seeded #13 (or worse) are an awful 26.3% ATS in the NCAA Tourney when they were on a 14-game (or better) win streak.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats over Michigan State.  This is a great match-up between two veteran coaches (Bob McKillop, 33 years; Tom Izzo, 27 years) who have been with their programs for their entire head coaching careers.  Interestingly, they've never faced each other throughout this time.  This game will be played in Greenville, South Carolina, so the fans should favor the Wildcats.  We'll take Davidson, as it was 2-1 ATS outside of conference vs. tourney teams, including a huge upset win at Alabama, as a 9.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, the Spartans stumbled out of conference vs. tourney teams, as they were 1-3 ATS.  And Davidson's covered eight straight non-conference games, to boot.  Take the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over LSU.  In their last three games, the Cyclones have scored 41 (Texas Tech), 68 (Baylor) and 36 (Oklahoma State).  This paucity of points in two of their three most recent games will keep a lot of punters off Iowa State.  It shouldn't.  Indeed, in the NCAA Tourney, underdogs of +3 (or more) points that averaged 55 (or less) points over their previous 3 games have covered 61% since 1999.  The Cyclones were a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in their non-conference schedule vs. teams that made the tourney, with big upset wins over Memphis (78-59), Iowa (73-53) and Creighton (64-58).  In stark contrast, LSU played one tourney team outside of its conference, and was upset by TCU, 77-68.  Take the underdog Cyclones.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Cal State Fullerton.  The Blue Devils are on a 4-game ATS losing streak.  But that bodes well for Mike Krzyzewski's troops tonight, as Duke's generally been strong off ATS losses, including 39-24-1 ATS their last 64 off 3+ ATS losses (and 15-7-1 ATS their last 23 off 4+ ATS losses).  Take Duke minus the points.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies upset Duke, 82-67, as a 6-point underdog to win the ACC tournament.  Unfortunately, teams that pulled upsets as 6-point (or greater) underdogs in their Conference tourney championship game, have burned money in their initial game of the NCAA Tourney, and especially when not getting more than 7 points, as they've covered just 27% over the last 20 years.  The ACC Conference had a down season.  Out of conference, Virginia Tech played just one fellow Tourney team.  That game was against Memphis, and the Tigers won SU/ATS, 69-61.  Take Texas to blow out Virginia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Miami-Fla.  Andy Enfield's Trojans are 26-7, but largely flew under-the-radar this season.  But what's noteworthy is their record vs. other tournament teams.  They played San Diego State in their non-conference schedule, and blew out the Aztecs, 58-43, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Then, they played UCLA and Arizona twice.  Both the Bruins and Wildcats have legitimate aspirations of winning the title, so I won't hold it against USC that it "only" won one of those four games, straight-up.  But it did COVER the spread in three of those four games, so for the season, it went 4-1 ATS against other NCAA Tourney teams.  The ACC conference was extremely weak this season (when compared to past years).  The Hurricanes played one other NCAA tourney team in their non-conference schedule.  That was a neutral court game vs. Alabama, which is seeded just slightly higher than USC (Alabama is a 6-seed; USC is a 7-seed).  The Crimson Tide crushed Miami, 96-64.  Of all the NCAA Tourney teams seeded #12 higher, the Hurricanes rank dead last (so, #48 of 48) in defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, with a ranking of #154 (of the 358 division 1 teams).  Take USC.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Yale.  This is not your grandfather's Yale team.  And, by that, I mean, it's not very good -- at least not compared to past Yale teams that made the Tournament.  The Bulldogs made the NCAA Tourney is 2016 and 2019, as well.  But that 2016 team upset Baylor in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney, and then lost to Duke by just seven points in the 2nd round!  It covered the spread by 3.83 ppg that season, and was 12-7-2 ATS overall.  Likewise, the 2019 edition almost pulled an upset of #3-seed LSU in the first round, and was 14-10 ATS.  But this year's Yale team was under water ATS with just a 14-15 ATS record.  And in the pre-Ivy League schedule, it was blown out by Seton Hall (80-44), Vermont (61-53), Auburn (86-64), and Saint Mary's (87-60).  So, it played four other NCAA tourney teams in its non-conference schedule, and went 0-4 SU/ATS.  And it was 0-5 SU/ATS this season when getting 5+ points.  Take Purdue minus the points.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Akron.  The Bruins had a magical run last season in this NCAA Tournament, as they won their "First Four" game, in overtime, against Michigan State.  And they ended up in the Final Four, and were 6-0 ATS along the way.  They then went 2-1 in the just-concluded Pac-12 Tourney, so they're 8-1 ATS in the post-season with Mick Cronin as head coach.  Even better:  Pac-12 teams have gone 88-58 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Creighton.  The Aztecs enter this tournament with the #1 defense among the participants, as they give up just 57.6 ppg.  And they also rank #2 in defensive efficiency (behind only Texas Tech).  The Aztecs are favored in this game, and we'll lay the points as NCAA Tourney favorites have cashed 61.7% in the first round of the tournament (including the "First Four" round), if their defense allowed 59.3 (or less) points.  Take San Diego State.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Saint Peter's.  The Peacocks come into this game on a 7-game SU/ATS win streak, while Kentucky was upset by Tennesee in its last game, and has covered just one of its last six, overall.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the hot Peacocks.  But NCAA Tourney teams on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak have covered just 37.1% as underdogs of more than 3 points vs. foes on a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Take Kentucky.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Norfolk State.  Scott Drew's Bears were upset by the Oklahoma Sooners, 72-67, in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament.  And that was Baylor's 2nd straight ATS defeat.  But the Bears are a wallet-fattening 47-22-5 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if they also failed to cover the spread two games back.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:40 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars minus the points over South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits have won 21 straight games.  But they were favored to win all 21.  Their last loss:  December 15 vs. Missouri State.  And, like this game today, South Dakota State was an underdog.  Indeed, South Dakota State has been an underdog just three times this season, and went 1-2 SU/ATS.  So, this will be a big step-up in class for Eric Henderson's men.  And Summit League teams have underwhelmed vs. the Big East Conference the past three seasons, as they've gone 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS, with the average loss by 16 points.  The last meeting was on November 30, when the Summit League's runner-up, North Dakota State, played Creighton, the Big East's runner-up.  Creighton was an 8-point favorite, and blew out the Bison, 80-55.  The Big East has dominated non-conference foes when not favored by more than 8 points, as Big East teams are 71-46-2 ATS.  Lay the points with Ed Cooley's Friars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Iona.  The Gators enter tonight's home game off back to back ATS losses.  But they're 70-32 ATS off back to back ATS losses when matched up against .625 (or better) foes, including a perfect 11-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes when priced from -3 to -15 points.  Take Florida.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Mercy Titans + the points over Florida Gulf Coast.  The Titans were blown out, 77-59, by Northern Kentucky to end their regular season.  We'll take Detroit to rebound tonight, as an underdog vs. the Eagles.  Detroit is a stellar 18-3-1 after scoring less than 65 points, and 10-2-1 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks + the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Hawks have been dominant as an underdog, including 11-1-1 ATS when getting 6+ points, while the Chanticleers are a poor 2-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  Take the Hawks as a double-digit underdog tonight.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over Princeton.  Mike Rhoades' Rams were upset by Richmond, 75-64, in the Atlantic 10 tournament.  But off that upset loss, we'll take VCU to bounce back here, at home, in the opening round of the NIT tournament.  The Rams are 6-1 ATS at home off an upset loss, and they're also 18-9 ATS at home their last 27 off an upset conference loss.  Even better:  the Rams also lost their final regular season game, and they're 22-0 straight-up, and 18-2-2 ATS at home when priced from PK to -13 if they're off back to back losses.  Lay the points with VCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Upstate Spartans + the points over Appalachian State.  The Spartans have been installed as a big underdog tonight vs. the Mountaineers.  And we'll happily grab the points -- especially given how well the big underdogs have done in these minor (i.e., not NIT or NCAA) tournaments (e.g., 47-27 ATS when getting 9+ points).  Moreover, the Mountaineers have burned money when laying points to an opponent not off a SU/ATS win, as they're 14-35-1 ATS.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Virginia Tech.  Mike Krzyzewski's men are on (for them) a rare 3-game ATS losing streak.  Indeed, Duke's generally been solid off an ATS loss, and especially if they won their previous game, as they're 151-113 ATS.  And when they're favored by more than 4 points, off 3+ ATS losses, they've gone 19-2 ATS if they also won their previous game, straight-up (and 12-0 ATS if they won the previous two games, straight-up).  Lay the points tonight with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas Southern Tigers minus the points over Alcorn State.  The Braves won twice vs. Texas Southern in the regular season.  And both games were hotly-contested, as the Braves won by 1 at home, and by 3 on the road.  We'll take the Tigers to win Round 3, as double-revengers off back-to-back wins have cashed 86% in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Tourney.  Lay the points with Texas Southern.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Kansas.  The Red Raiders come into this game off two great defensive performances.  They allowed just 41 points in their win against Iowa State on Thursday, and held Oklahoma to just 55 yesterday.  For the season, Texas Tech is surrendering a mere 59.9 ppg.  We'll take the defensive-minded underdog, as NCAA teams with defensive scoring averages of less than 60 ppg, have cashed 62% in the Conference Tourney Finals since 1990, if they also held their previous two opponents to less than 60 points.  Additionally, Texas Tech is a solid 23-13 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take the Red Raiders + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Michigan State.  The Boilermakers (26-6 SU, 13-18-1 ATS) play this game with revenge from a 68-65 loss to the Spartans (22-11 SU, 17-15-1 ATS), in East Lansing.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as Big 10 teams, with losing ATS records, are 75-45 ATS in the Tournament when playing with revenge, including 14-2-1 ATS as a favorite of 2 (or more) points.  Take Purdue.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears minus the points over Portland State.  The Bears were upset not once, but twice, earlier this season by the Vikings.  We'll lay the points with Steve Smiley's troops as Big Sky Tourney favorites have covered 75% if they lost each of the season's prior meetings vs. their opponent.  Take Northern Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Penn State.  The Nittany Lions enter tonight's game on a 4-game ATS win streak after upsetting Ohio State, 71-68, yesterday.  Meanwhile, the Boilers are 0-6-1 ATS their last seven. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the hot Nittany Lions, and against the cold Boilermakers.  But consider that NCAA favorites of more than 5 points have covered 73% since 1990 in conference tourney games, if they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS win streak.  Take Purdue.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Colorado.  The Buffs blew out Oregon, 80-69, yesterday, as a 2-point favorite, while Arizona opened the Tourney with a 4-point win over Stanford.  These two teams met just 13 days ago in Boulder.  In that game, the Buffaloes stunned the Wildcats, 79-63, as a 9.5-point home underdog.  We'll take the Wildcats in this revenge match, as Arizona falls into a 201-109 ATS post-season system of mine which plays on certain favorites of -3 (or more) points that were upset in the previous meeting that season vs. their opponent.  Even better:  Pac-12 Conference teams (like Colorado) off a win by more than 8 points have gone 2-15-1 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes in the Conference Tourney, if priced from -1 to +11 points.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Coppin State Eagles + the points over North Carolina Central.  Coppin State narrowly lost its two meetings this season with NC Central, as it fell by 3 at home, and by 1 on the road.  We'll take Coppin State, as double-revenging underdogs have covered 64% in the Mid-Eastern Conference Tourney.  Take Coppin State.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Michigan State.  Johnny Davis has stated that his ankle -- which he injured vs. Nebraska -- is fine, so that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Badgers this evening.  Without an injured Davis, Wisconsin succumbed to Nebraska, 74-73, as a 12.5-point home favorite.  But NCAA post-season favorites have cashed 70.3% since 1990 off an upset loss as a 12.5-point (or greater) favorite, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take Wisconsin.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders minus the points over Texas El Paso.  The Miners come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, while the Blue Raiders are in off 2 SU/ATS losses.  Still, Middle Tennessee was one of the best point spread teams this season, with a 20-7 ATS ledger.  UTEP, on the other hand, is a mere 15-14 ATS.  Unfortunately for UTEP, this is a bad situation tonight, as UTEP has covered just 5 of 16 Conference Tourney games off 2 SU/ATS wins.  That doesn't bode well for the Miners.  Nor does the fact that underdogs off back to back SU/ATS Wins have covered just 40.2% over the last 32 years in the post-season vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses, including just 23% vs. foes with a winning ATS record.  Take Middle Tennessee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers over Louisiana Tech.  The Hilltoppers have been dominant over the years in the post-season, as they're 56-24-1 ATS their last 81.  We'll take Western Kentucky this evening, as it plays with revenge from a narrow 1-point home loss earlier this season.  And NCAA teams that lost at home by a single point in the previous meeting have covered 61% in the post-season rematch, provided they weren't getting 3+ points.  Take the Hilltoppers.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Ball State.  The Bobcats enter this Mid-American Tourney on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  And they were favored in each of those SU losses.  We'll lay the points with Ohio, as NCAA teams off 3 upset losses have covered 73% in the post-season since 1990 vs. foes off an ATS loss.  Lay the points with the Bobcats.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgetown Hoyas + the points over Seton Hall.  The Hoyas and Pirates matched-up just seven days ago at Seton Hall.  And Kevin Willard's men narrowly escaped with a 73-68 win, as a 13-point home favorite.  We'll take Georgetown to avenge that loss, as it's 72.2% ATS as a doubled-digit dog when playing with revenge, including 6-0-1 ATS its last six.  Take the Hoyas.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs + the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores upset Ole Miss on Saturday, 63-61.  But Vandy is a poor 36.3% over the last 32 years as a favorite off an upset road win.  Tale Georgia + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Clemson.  The Hokies are 19-12 SU and 16-15 ATS on the season, but were upset by the Tigers, 63-59, four days ago, at Clemson.  We'll take the Hokies in this revenge match, as NCAA teams that lost on the road to an opponent in their previous game, have covered 60% since 1993 in the rematch, if they owned a winning SU/ATS record.  Virginia Tech is 11-4 ATS its last 15 vs. Clemson.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Delaware State Hornets + the points over Norfolk State.  Delaware State has been one of the best point spread teams over the past six weeks, as it's 10-2 ATS its last 12.  We'll take the double-digits, as underdogs have gone 58-45-2 ATS in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tourney, including 7-1-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge vs. a foe off back to back wins.  The Hornets also fall into a 72.2% Conference Tourney system of mine which plays on certain .550 (or worse) teams off 3+ losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Hornets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus the points over New Mexico.  Nevada suffered a tough, 1-point loss (as a 4-point underdog) to San Diego State, on Saturday.  But we'll take the Wolf Pack to bounce back as they're a fantastic 11-1-1 ATS their last 13 conference games (and 34-12-2 ATS their last 48) when favored by 7 or less points after a straight-up loss, including 11-0 ATS if they covered the spread in their previous game.  Take Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Cal Davis Aggies minus the points over Cal Poly SLO. The Aggies dropped two road games to end the regular season, while the Mustangs finished with two home wins.  But since 1990, NCAA favorites are a solid 60% in conference tourney games off back to back road losses, if they were matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  Lay the points with Cal Davis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Georgia Tech.  The Cardinals enter this ACC Tourney game off three straight ATS defeats, while the Yellow Jackets have covered five of six, including their last two.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take Georgia Tech as an underdog, given Louisville's recent failures.  But Georgia Tech is a horrid 16-38 ATS vs. foes on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak if Tech wasn't getting more than 4 points.  Even better:  NCAA favorites of 4 or less points, with a losing conference record, have covered 67.2% of conference tourney games since 1990. Take Louisville minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over San Francisco.  We have correctly picked the champions of the last two NCAA Tournaments, as we had preseason picks on Virginia (at 22-1 odds) and Baylor (at 12-1 odds).  This year, our preseason pick was on Gonzaga (at 7-1 odds).  I was actually thrilled that it lost to St. Mary's last week, as one of the last things you want to see is (if you're rooting for a team to win the title) is for it to go into the tournament on a long win streak.  Instead, that blowout loss at the hands of the Gaels will allow Mark Few to hit the reset button for his team.  I expect it to come out with a much better focus tonight, as Gonzaga is 21-9 ATS following a game it failed to cover by more than 16 points.  And the Zags are also 18-11 ATS its last 29 off a loss.  Remarkably, Gonzaga has NEVER lost a semi-final round game in the West Coast Conference tournament, as it's 22-0 SU and 14-7-1 ATS, including 10-2-1 ATS when favored by 14 < points.  Take Gonzaga.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits minus the points over South Dakota.  The Coyotes upset Missouri-Kansas City yesterday, 74-61, as a 1-point underdog.  And that was South Dakota's second straight upset win.  Now, the 5th-seeded Coyotes will attempt to knock off #1-seeded South Dakota State.  It's true the Jackrabbits were uninspired in their victory on Saturday vs. Omaha.  South Dakota State was favored by 23.5 points, but won by just eight, 87-79.  However, that's been par for the course this season for South Dakota State.  It's been poor when favored by 15+ points (2-8 ATS), but has been stellar when favored by less than 15 (13-4 ATS).  We'll look for the Jackrabbits to bounce back today, as favorites with a winning SU/ATS record, off a point spread loss, have covered 58% in the post season vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Take South Dakota State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wright State Raiders over Cleveland State.  The Vikings swept the season series vs. the Raiders, but that fact has set up Wright State into a 421-290-18 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Vikings are a woeful 14-32 ATS, while the revenger is 15-1 ATS when not getting more than 7 points vs. a foe off an ATS win.  Take Wright State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles minus the points over Western Illinois.  When these two teams last met, the Leathernecks upset Oral Roberts, 90-85, as a 7-point road underdog.  But prior to that upset loss, the Golden Eagles had won the previous five meetings by an average of 20.2 ppg.  We'll lay the points with the Golden Eagles in this revenge match, as ORU falls into 76-40, 116-56 and 61-22 ATS Tourney systems of mine.  Additionally, the Leathernecks are a woeful 7-19 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe they defeated earlier in the season.  Take the Golden Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over Samford.  The Bulldogs upset the Paladins 11 days ago, 83-75, as a 6-point home dog.  But prior to that, Furman had won the previous five meetings by an average of 18.4 ppg, and had gone 4-1 ATS.  We'll look for the Paladins to blow out Samford this evening, as the Bulldogs are a wallet-breaking 10-24 ATS when installed as an underdog vs. a revenge-minded foe they defeated earlier in the season.  And Furman also falls into one of my favorite revenge angles which is 171-94 ATS since 1990.  Take the Paladins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Delaware Blue Hens over Drexel.  The Blue Hens are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three coming into this Colonial Athletic Ass'n Tourney game.  We'll take Delaware to snap their losing streak, as teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have covered 58.3% in this Tournament since 1991.  Take the Blue Hens.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the New Jersey Tech Highlanders + the points over Vermont.  The Catamounts won the two previous meetings by 26 and 23 points, which sets up our revenge play this afternoon.  We'll grab the points with New Jersey Tech, as double-digit underdogs have gone 89-57 ATS when playing with revenge from two losses earlier in the season by more than 16 points.  Take New Jersey Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers minus the points over UMass-Lowell.  The River Hawks swept the season series, 2 games to none.  But UMBC now falls into 96-56, 419-290 and 44-13 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, the Retrievers are 21-12 ATS in competitively-priced games with spreads less than 4 points, while the River Hawks are 9-13 ATS in such games.  Finally, America East Conference double-revengers are 34-18 ATS in this Conference tournament.  Lay the points with UMBC.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Murray State Racers minus the points over Morehead State.  The Racers come into this Ohio Valley Championship game with a 29-2 record, and a 19-game win streak after blowing out Southeast Missouri yesterday.  I won't step in front of this freight train, as teams on 9-game (or better) win streaks have covered 58.2% in conference tourney title games since 1992.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The Eagles upset Coastal Carolina, 70-64, on Thursday, as a 5-point underdog.  But off that win, the Eagles now fall into negative 16-42 and 55-111 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams in tourney games off upset wins.  Georgia Southern is also 1-8 ATS off back to back ATS wins.  Take Appalachian State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the William & Mary Tribe + the points over Northeastern.  This is about as big of a revenge game as a team can have in College Basketball.  Less than 10 days ago, the Huskies thoroughly humiliated William and Mary by holding it to just 28 points, in a 62-28 defeat.  Needless to say, William and Mary will be out to redeem itself this afternoon.  We'll take the points, as William and Mary is an awesome 54-18 ATS when playing with revenge.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Arkansas Little Rock.  We played on Little Rock in its last game -- an upset win as a 12.5-point underdog -- over South Alabama.  But we will fade Little Rock this afternoon, as Troy is coming off a loss to Texas State.  And the Trojans are 9-1 ATS their last 10 off a loss.  Lay the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Western Kentucky.  The Herd lost to the Hilltoppers three days ago, 86-72, in Huntington.  We'll grab the points in this rematch, as Marshall has covered 58% since 1990 as a revenge-minded, double-digit underdog off a SU/ATS loss (and 86% if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game).  Take the Thundering Herd + the points.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Notre Dame.  The Panthers come into this game off back to back home losses to Miami and Duke.  But Pitt is a super 14-3 ATS off back to back home defeats, while Notre Dame is a wallet breaking 27-57 ATS as a home favorite of -10 (or more) points vs. a foe not off an ATS win.  Take Pittsburgh + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Florida Atlantic.  This is a rematch of a game played just two days ago.  The Owls went into Florida International, and blew out the Panthers, 71-51, as a 5.5 point road favorite.  We'll take the points in this rematch, as double-digit road underdogs have covered 63% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) home defeat to their opponent in the previous game.  Take Florida International.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Indiana.  The Boilers will be looking to bounce back this afternoon from losses at Wisconsin and Michigan State.  And they'll also be looking to avenge a defeat at Indiana, back in January.  We'll lay the points as teams with a .500 (or better) conference record have covered 62.6% since 1990 off back to back SU/ATS losses, if they were playing their final home game of the season, and favored by 6 (or more) points.  Even better:  Purdue's 30-17 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss, and 16-4 ATS at home off a point spread defeat if it lost on the road to its opponent earlier in the season.  Take the Boilermakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Portland Pilots minus the points over San Diego.  The Favorites have dominated in the West Coast Conference tournament, including 2-0 ATS yesterday, and 74-46 ATS their last 120 when priced at -11 or less.  We'll lay the points with the Pilots, as they also fall into a 239-149 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams not favored by double-digits vs. foes off a win.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mercer Bears minus the points over Western Carolina.  The Catamounts upset Mercer less than two weeks ago, 69-65, as a 6-point home dog.  And they've now covered three straight games.  Unfortunately, the Catamounts are an awful 6-15-1 ATS off back to back ATS wins, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes with a losing conference record.  And they're 12-30 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe they upset in the previous meeting.  Take Mercer minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Miami-Ohio.  The RedHawks are one of the worst home favorites in college basketball, as they're 21-41-2 ATS including 0-10 ATS when priced from -7 to -10.5 points.  Take Eastern Michigan as a road underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Bowling Green + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets upset Buffalo, 92-76, on Tuesday.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Toledo this evening, as .636 (or better) Mid-American Conference favorites of more than 4 points, are a dismal 31-67 ATS in home conference games off an upset road win.  Take Bowling Green + the points.