Sports Picks & Predictions

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds plus the points over Navy.  In this quarterfinals match-up in the Patriot League Tourney, we'll side with the road team this afternoon.  This is a rematch of a 2-game series played over last weekend.  The Greyhounds lost both of those games, but each game was competitive, as Navy won by 6 and 8 points.  I believe the 3rd time will be the charm this afternoon, as Loyola falls into a 161-83 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, the Greyhounds are 39-19 ATS when playing with double-revenge, and 101-63 ATS on the road vs. conference foes.  Take Loyola Maryland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgetown Hoyas + the points over Connecticut.  These two teams met just 11 days ago in Georgetown, and the Hoyas lost, 70-57, as a 4.5-point home dog.  We'll take the revenge-minded Hoyas this afternoon, as they're 9-0 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge from a loss by 8+ points.  Take Georgetown.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Loyola Marymount.  The Dons lost both meetings to the Lions, and they were favored in each of those two games.  But those two upset losses have set up San Francisco in a very good 163-102 ATS revenge system of mine.  Moreover, Loyola Marymount is a horrid 13-42 ATS at home, or on a neutral court, when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Dons minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Jacksonville State.  The Gamecocks upset Murray State in the quarterfinals yesterday, while Belmont won (but failed to cover) vs. Edwardsville.  We'll fade the Gamecocks, as NCAA teams off upset wins in the quarterfinals have cashed just 33% in the semifinals when priced from +3.5 to +9, and matched up against an opponent off an ATS loss.  Even worse for Jacksonville State:  it lost both meeting to the Bruins this season.  And the Gamecocks are 1-12 ATS their last 13 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take Belmont.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers + the points over Marshall.  This is the first of two games these Conference USA rivals will play this weekend.  The 49ers have dropped each of their last six games.  And the last three have been by 19, 23 and 15 points.  But off those three blowout losses, we'll grab the double digits with Charlotte.  Over the last 25+ years, double-digit road underdogs have covered 63% of conference games, if they were off 3 SU/ATS losses by 15+ points, and their opponent was off a SU win.  Take Charlotte.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Central Michigan.  The Huskies come into this game on a 7-game losing streak, while the Chippewas have dropped eight of their last 9.  When it comes to bad teams, I'll generally favor taking the points as opposed laying the points.  Here, the Chippewas are laying their most points in a Mid-American Conference game since last season.  And Central Michigan is just 3-12 in conference play this season.  But since 1994, NCAA teams with a .200 (or worse) conference win percentage (at conference game #16 forward), have cashed just 41.1% when laying 3+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Central Michigan this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Northern Illinois is a solid 49-27 ATS on the road off a home loss.  Finally, the Huskies fall into 73-25, 79-21 and 48-10 ATS angles of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over Dayton.  The Rams will have the added benefit of playing this Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament game at home.  And they also received some welcome news when Vince Williams and Mikeal Brown-Jones were both upgraded to 'probable' for this game.  Though it's unclear whether Nah'Shon ("Bones") Hyland will play, he has practiced this week, so there's a good chance he'll be on the court, as well.  Regardless of whether Hyland suits up, or not, we'll lay the points with the home team this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that home teams are 9-0 ATS their last nine, and 39-19-1 ATS their last 59 in the conference tournament quarterfinal round against foes off a double-digit win.  Additionally, VCU is 6-2 SU/ATS its last eight vs. Dayton, including wins this season by 9 and 23 points.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Loyola Chicago Ramblers minus the points over Southern Illinois.  The Salukis bested Bradley, 73-63, yesterday to open Missouri Valley Tournament action.  And that was their fourth straight ATS win.  Unfortunately, they'll have to face a Loyola squad this afternoon which defeated it twice this season.  Even worse, revenge-minded underdogs of more than 10 points, off a SU/ATS win, and 2+ ATS wins overall, have covered just 99 of 244 in the Conference Tourneys.  Finally, the #1-seeded team has gone 29-0 SU and 20-7-2 ATS in the quarterfinal round of the Missouri Valley Tournament since 1991.  Lay the points with Loyola.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the St Bonaventure Bonnies minus the points over Duquesne.  The Dukes upset Richmond, 67-62, as a 3.5-point underdog yesterday.  But off that victory, we'll fade Keith Dambrot's men this morning, as Atlantic 10 Conference underdogs of +3 (or more) points are a horrid 21-43-1 ATS in the Tournament off an upset win, including 1-13 ATS vs. a foe which failed to cover its previous game by more than 6 points, and 0-7 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss.  With the Bonnies, indeed, off an upset loss vs. Dayton in their previous game, as a 5.5-point favorite, we'll lay the points with St. Bonaventure today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At midnight, our selection is on the Portland Pilots + the points over Santa Clara.  Terry Porter was fired on February 5, after the Pilots had lost their 9th straight game, and was replaced on an interim basis by assistant Ben Johnson. But since Johnson's ascension, the Pilots have lost three more games. And they've now lost 12 in a row, and failed to cover the spread in 8 straight games! The last three defeats have been particularly ugly, as Portland lost by 21 to Pepperdine, and by 27 and 22 points to Pacific.  Notwithstanding those three losses, we'll grab the double-digits with the Pilots, as NCAA basketball teams off three blowout losses by more than 20 points where they failed to cover the spread in each game have gone 76-50 ATS.  Even better:  the Broncos are a poor 3-16 ATS off an ATS win in their previous game.  Take Portland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas.  The Sooners lost back to back games in their matchup over the weekend against Oklahoma State.  And Oklahoma was favored in each of those games.  But off those two upset losses, we'll step in and lay the points with the homestanding Sooners.  This will be the Sooners' final home game of the season, and NCAA teams have cashed 64.1% over the last 31 years in their final home game, if they were off back to back upset losses, and their opponent was off an ATS win.  Moreover, Oklahoma is 27-10 ATS at home in Big 12 conference games off back to back conference losses.  Take Oklahoma.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Grambling Tigers minus the points over Alabama State.  The Tigers stubbed their toe on the road against then 1-20 Mississippi Valley State, when they lost, 67-63, as a 17.5-point favorite.  We'll look for Grambling to rebound tonight, as NCAA teams have cashed 64.1% since 1990 at home, or on neutral courts, off an upset loss away from home, if they were favored by 13+ points in that upset loss.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Murray State Racers minus the points over Jacksonville State.  These two teams met a week ago in Alabama, and the Gamecocks won that home game, 87-74, as a 3-point underdog.  After that defeat, the Racers also were upset in their final regular season game at Tennessee Tech.  Today's game will be played at a neutral site -- the Ford Center, in Indiana.  We'll take Murray State to avenge that earlier double-digit loss, as NCAA favorites have cashed 69% over the last 31 years in Conference Tourneys, if they were off a SU/ATS loss, and were playing with revenge from a double-digit defeat.  Take the Racers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen minus the points over St. Joseph's.  The Hawks won and covered their fourth straight game yesterday when the defeated La Salle, as a small favorite.  But the 13th seeded-Hawks should be sent packing today by the #5-seeded Minutemen.  Indeed, in conference tournaments, NCAA underdogs off back to back SU/ATS wins are a horrid 10-38 ATS their last 48 vs. foes off a SU loss.  With UMass off a 21-point loss at Saint Louis on Monday, we'll lay the points with the Minutemen.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville.  The Bruins come into this game off back-to-back losses at Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State, and they were 18-0 in Ohio Valley Conference play before those two defeats.  We had a big play on Eastern Kentucky in that game, so it wasn't a surprise to us when the Colonels won outright as an 8-point underdog.  Then Belmont followed that game up with an overtime loss at Morehead State.  But it must be noted that 2-time All-OVC center Nick Muszynski (15.3 ppg; 5.5 rpg) didn't play in that game.  However, he's been upgraded to 'probable' tonight.  We'll lay the points with the Bruins, as NCAA favorites of more than 9 points have covered 80% in the post-season over the past 30 years if they were upset in their two previous games.  Even better:  the Bruins blew out the Cougars by 32 points at Edwardsville, and by 52 points at home.  Unfortunately for the Cougars, they're 0-8 ATS their last 8 when playing with revenge from a 29-point (or worse) defeat.  Lay the points with Belmont.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders + the points over Sam Houston State.  These two teams met earlier this year in Corpus Christi.  The Bearkats were 9.5-point favorites, but won by just five, 75-70.  That narrow defeat should give Corpus Christi confidence tonight, as they know they can go toe-to-toe with Sam Houston.  I look for the Islanders to cover this big number again tonight, as NCAA road underdogs of +15 (or more) points have cashed 58% over the last 28 seasons if they lost by 5 points or less at home in the season's first meeting.  Take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over North Carolina State.  The Irish are favored this evening, and will look to snap a 3-game losing streak.  All three of those defeats, though, came on the road.  Tonight's game is in South Bend.  And NC State has covered just 29 of 69 ACC Conference road games vs. foes off back to back losses, including 11-19 ATS as a single-digit underdog.  That bodes well for Notre Dame today.  As does the fact that ACC Conference teams are 87-66 ATS as home favorites off 3+ losses.  Take the Fighting Irish on Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers blew out Utah just 13 days ago, 74-56, so the Utes will have revenge on their mind tonight.  And that's generally a good thing for Utah, as it's a dominant 79-44 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 37-14 ATS vs. foes off a point spread win.  With Oregon State, indeed, off an ATS win last Saturday at Stanford, we'll lay the points with Utah today.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Seton Hall Pirates + the points over Connecticut.  UConn enters this critical Big East game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Georgetown and Marquette.  Meanwhile, the Pirates lost at Georgetown and at Butler last week.  And they were favored by 4.5 and 8 points, respectively.  We'll take Seton Hall tonight to bounce back off those upset losses, as NCAA teams have covered 73.3% over the past 31 years off back to back road losses in which they were favored by more than 3 points, if they were matched up in their current game against an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Pirates.

At 11 am, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers + the points over St. Joseph's.  The Hawks come into this game off 3 upset wins over Richmond, Dayton, and this La Salle team.  But even with those three late-season wins, the Hawks were still just 4-14 SU and 8-10 ATS.  The oddsmakers, though, have taken notice, and have installed St. Joseph's as the favorite this morning, even though it was a home underdog vs. the Explorers just 11 days ago.  We'll take the points with La Salle, as St. Joes was 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season.  And NCAA teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 33% in the conference tournaments since 1990, if they owned a losing SU and ATS record.  Take the points with the Explorers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Tigers will be looking to bounce back off two SU/ATS road losses last week, and will welcome Vanderbilt to Baton Rouge on Tuesday night.  The Commodores upset Ole Miss, 75-70, as a double-digit underdog on Saturday.  And that extended their ATS win streak to 6-0-3 ATS their last nine.  Still, Vanderbilt is not a very good basketball team, as it's just 7-13 this season.  And underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a losing record, off 5+ ATS wins, have covered just 31% over the past 31 seasons vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take LSU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Michigan. 

(As a side note to subscription clients, I apologize for clicking on the wrong team earlier.  Hopefully, you read this write up, and realized which side I was on.) 

Regular season match-ups don't get much better than tonight's affair at Crisler Arena.  The #2-ranked Wolverines will put their seven-game win streak on the line against the #4-ranked Illini.  Both teams were impressive last week, as the Wolverines annihilated Iowa, 79-57, and upended Indiana, 73-57, while Illinois won and covered vs. Nebraska (86-70) and Wisconsin (74-69).  In this game, the Wolverines have been installed as a huge favorite against Illinois.  And, to put this point spread in perspective, consider that the Wolverines were favored by a similar amount just 12 days ago at home vs. Rutgers, which wouldn't rank among the nation's top 30 teams.  We cashed our ticket on Rutgers in that game, as it lost by just seven points.  And we'll grab the points with Illinois today for a couple of reasons.  First, Illinois has won and covered its last two games, so it's playing well.  Second, the Illini have played very well on the road this season, as they've covered the point spread on the road by an average of 5.1 ppg.  And when you can get a .733 (or better) team (at Game 10 forward) off back to back SU/ATS wins, that's getting 8+ points on the road, and covering its road games by at least 4.75 ppg, that's generally a very good recipe for success in the regular season.  Indeed, such teams have cashed 66% since 1995, including 34-10 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Miami.  The Cavaliers enter this evening's game on a rare (for them) three-game losing streak.  And Virginia's previous game was at home vs. NC State, which was the first time Virginia lost at home this season after 9 home wins.  The good news for Virginia is that it's back home today, so it will have a quick opportunity to erase the memory of that horrible home game.  And home teams, with a .900 (or better) home WL percentage, have gone 31-8 ATS off a home loss.  Even better:  this is Virginia's final home game of the season.  And NCAA teams playing their final home game have gone 11-1 ATS if they were off 3 straight upset loss, and now matched up against a losing team.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Western Kentucky.  These two teams met on Sunday here in Bowling Green, KY, and the Hilltoppers blew out the Panthers, 91-58.  We'll grab the points with Florida International this afternoon, as .360 (or better) teams have covered 75% on the road over the last 31 years when playing with revenge against an opponent that just defeated it by 32+ points.  Additionally, two games back, the Panthers were upset, 85-72, as a 4-point home favorite vs. Southern Miss.  But off those two bad games, where they failed to cover each by 17+ points, we'll look for a bounce back game this afternoon.  Indeed, NCAA underdogs have covered 66% since 1990 off back to back games where they failed to cover by 17+ points, if they were playing with revenge against an opponent which defeated it in the first meeting of the season.  Take Florida International.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs + the points over Villanova.  The Bulldogs upset Seton Hall, 61-52, as an 8-point home underdog in their last game.  Now, they will set their sights on #8-ranked Villanova.  The Wildcats are once again having a great season, as they're 15-3, including 10-2 in Big East play.  But this will be a difficult spot for Villanova -- even though Butler's just 7-11 in Conference play -- as it's Butler's final home game of the season.  And Big East teams off a win in their previous game have cashed 63.3% in their final home game of the season, including 86% vs. foes off back to back wins.  Moreover, when playing their final home game of the season, the Bulldogs have won 22 of their last 25 straight-up (14-10 ATS).  Finally, it's worth noting that Butler plays this game with revenge from a 19-point loss to the Wildcats in December.  And NCAA home teams with losing conference records, but strong home courts, have gone 299-219-15 ATS when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season, including 65-31-2 ATS if it was their final home game of the season!   Take Butler.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves + the points over Drake.  The Bulldogs bested Bradley yesterday, 80-71, and the two teams will conclude their regular season this evening.  We were 7-1-1 yesterday, but one of the two games we didn't win was on Bradley.  (The Braves either pushed or lost, depending on one's number (the line opened at +9 and closed at +8.5)).   So, Drake has now won 5 in a row following its 27-point loss to Loyola-Chicago.  It also was Bradley's 4th straight loss.  We'll come right back with the Braves as a home underdog in their final home game of the season.  Missouri Valley teams with a .316 (or better) win percentage are 174-115 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak, if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.   And Drake has covered just 1 of 14 games against losing teams when Drake was playing its final road game of the regular season.  Take Bradley + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones over TCU.  It's true that Iowa State is just 2-17 this season.  But when you look through the raw wins and losses, and instead look to the ATS results, TCU has been playing worse, of late, than Iowa State.  We actually had a huge play on the Cyclones in their last game, and they almost pulled the upset over #2-ranked Baylor, as a 24-point underdog.  Iowa State led for most of the game, but Baylor fought back to assume the lead with a few minutes to play, and won 77-72.  Still, that was the 5th time the Cyclones covered in their previous eight games.  And that compares favorably to TCU's recent 3-7 ATS stretch (including 0-4 ATS its last four).  These two teams met two-and-a-half weeks ago in Fort Worth, and the Horned Frogs narrowly escaped with a 79-76 victory.  I look for Iowa State to avenge that defeat, as the Cyclones are a solid 45-26 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 21-7 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  Take the Cyclones.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Valparaiso Crusaders + the points over Indiana State.  These two teams met last night, here in Valparaiso, and the Sycamores won their third straight game, 58-43, as a 1-point road underdog.  Even better for their friends "in Vegas" was the fact it extended their ATS win streak to 7-0-1 ATS their last eight.  For this game, the oddsmakers have now installed Indiana State as the favorite, rather than Valpo.  I think it's an overreaction, and we will go against the Sycamores tonight, as they fall into a negative 79-122 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on winning streaks.  Additionally, the Crusaders are 20-10 ATS off a loss when playing with revenge from a defeat earlier in the season.  And Indiana State has covered just 40 of 99 games away from home vs. foes playing with revenge from a previous defeat in the season.  Take Valparaiso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets enter this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, including an upset victory at Buffalo their last time on the court.  Toledo's now 18-6 on the season, and it also sits atop the MAC standings with a 13-3 record.  But off its upset win over the Bulls (who were 8-4 in MAC play going into the game), I look for a letdown at home on Saturday against a 4-14 Western Michigan squad.  For technical support, consider that .636 (or better) Mid American Conference teams are an awful 12-47 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 points, if they're off an upset road win, and matched up against a .575 (or worse) conference foe.  Grab the double-digits with the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Little Rock Trojans over Louisiana Lafayette.  The Trojans lost for the 7th straight time last night, when Lafayette upset them, 66-61.  Even worse for those who have bet on the Trojans is that they've now also lost seven straight against the spread.  But this is the Trojans' final home game of the season, and NCAA teams have covered 63% of their final home games the past 31 seasons, if they were off a home SU/ATS loss (and 3 SU/ATS losses overall), and their opponent was off a win.  Look for Little Rock to get back into the win column today.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles minus the points over Western Illinois.  Oral Roberts will look to rebound today off its 86-84 loss at South Dakota.  And it's been installed as a big home favorite vs. a Leathernecks squad off five straight wins (and six straight covers).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with red-hot Western Illinois, especially since Oral Roberts is a pedestrian 11-10 this season.  But be careful, as teams off 5+ wins are 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS as double-digit underdogs in the regular season against .560 (or worse) opponents.  Additionally, the Leathernecks fall into negative 115-179 and 85-142 ATS systems of mine based on their win streak.  Take the Golden Eagles minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Texas.  This is a brutal spot for the Longhorns.  Texas Tech comes into this game off three SU/ATS losses, including an upset defeat in Stillwater vs. the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Monday.  But over the past 31 years, Big 12 (or Big 8) Conference teams have cashed 72.2% at home off 3 SU/ATS losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and not getting more than three points in their current game.  Lay the points with the Red Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits minus the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  The Kangaroos are on a 5-game win streak.  But each of those games was at home; tonight's game is in Brookings, where the Jackrabbits rarely lose.  They've won 56 of their last 58 home games, straight-up.  And they are also exceptional against the spread at home, including 73-39 ATS as a favorite.  The Kangaroos fall into a negative 140-223 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams on the road off 5+ ATS wins.  Lay the points with South Dakota State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Little Rock Trojans minus the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  These two teams met twice earlier this season, and traded 2-point victories, with Lafayette taking Game #1, and Little Rock winning Game #2.  Both of those games were in Louisiana; the games tonight and tomorrow are in Arkansas.  We'll lay the points with Little Rock, which lost both of its games at Louisiana-Monroe last week.  And Little Rock was favored by 3.5 points in each of those defeats.  But NCAA teams have cashed 61% over the last 31 seasons off back to back road losses in which they were favored by more than three points.  Take the Trojans to bounce back tonight.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves + the points over Drake.  The Braves are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak (including an 88-71 upset loss to Illinois State in their last game), and will welcome the red-hot Bulldogs (who have won their last four games SU/ATS) to Peoria tonight.  We'll back the huge home underdog tonight, as .316 (or better) Missouri Valley teams are 174-113 ATS off 3 ATS losses, if they're playing a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Missouri Valley teams have cashed 76.6% over the last 31 seasons as an underdog of more than 7 points at home, or on a neutral court, if they failed to cover the spread by 13+ points in their previous game.  Take the Braves + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Richmond.  The Billikens come into this home game off back to back upset losses to Dayton and VCU.  But those two games were on the road.  At home, here in St. Louis, the Billikens are 14-1 SU their last 15, and 20-8 ATS their last 28.  And they're 39-19 ATS at home vs. conference foes, if the Billikens were off back to back losses.  St. Louis also falls into 59-16 and 74-25 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset losses.  Lay the points with St. Louis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over BYU.  The Dons will hit the road tonight off a very unsuccessful 4-game home stand.  San Francisco was favored in three of the four games, but lost each games -- both SU and ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lose confidence in the Dons off this 4-game SU/ATS home losing streak.  But NCAA teams have covered 65.7% over the last 31 years if they lost their previous four games SU/ATS, and each of those four losses was played at home.  And BYU has covered just six of 22 home games if it was off back to back wins, and it was matched up against a conference foe off back to back losses.  Take San Francisco + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Kentucky Colonels + the points over Belmont.  The Bruins come into tonight's road game off four straight home games, while Eastern Kentucky returns home off a 7-game road trip.  So the Colonels will no doubt be excited about taking on the Bruins, who have yet to lose an Ohio Valley Conference game.  Belmont's 18-0 in OVC play, 24-1 overall, and has won 21 straight games.  But the Bruins' long win streak has, by my numbers, created value on the side of the underdog.  Additionally, teams on 20-game (or longer) win streaks have gone 17-38-2 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -11.5 points.  Eastern Kentucky is 23-12 ATS its last 35 Ohio Valley games.  Grab the points with the home underdog.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils + the points over Prairie View.  These two teams met back on January 23, in Itta Bena, and the homestanding Delta Devils were blown out by 46 points, 77-31.  We'll grab the points in this rematch, as NCAA teams have gone 92-64 ATS when playing with revenge from a 40-point (or worse) defeat, including 19-6 ATS when getting more than 21 points.  And teams are 53-18-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss in which they scored 36 points or less, if their opponent is off back-to-back wins, including 13-1 ATS if they lost the previous meeting by 36+ points.  Take Mississippi Valley State + the points.

At 9 pm our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks over the Alabama Crimson Tide.  These two teams met last month in Tuscaloosa, and the Razorbacks suffered their worst loss of the season when Alabama rolled them, 90-59.  We'll take Arkansas to avenge that blowout loss, as .750 (or better) NCAA teams have gone 34-8 ATS their last 42 regular season games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 16 points earlier in the season, provided they weren't getting more than three points in the current game.  Additionally, the Razorbacks are 9-0 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge, while Alabama is an awful 48-88-2 ATS away from home in the regular season, when priced from -3 to +6.5 points, if it won its previous game.  Take Eric Musselman's men to get the 'W.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Carolina Catamounts + the points over NC Greensboro.  This is a revenge match for the Catamounts, who fell 77-56 to the Spartans at home on Monday.  That was the 4th straight loss (both SU and ATS) for Western Carolina.  But the Catamounts now fall into 433-243 and 134-53 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off three ATS losses, as well as a 449-286 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a losing conference record.  Additionally, Western Carolina is 13-5 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss when playing with revenge, while Greensboro is a horrible 0-9 ATS its last 9 (and 27-49-1 ATS its last 77) off a point spread win, when matched up against .450 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Catamounts + the double-digits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Baylor.  The Bears are 17-0 this season -- including an 11-point victory over this Iowa State team -- but haven't played in 21 days dues to the coronavirus.  They'll be back in action tonight, in Waco, but we'll grab the generous number of points with the road team.  Dating back to January 5, winning teams forced to pause their games due to COVID are a wallet-busting 11-34 ATS as a favorite if their previous game was at least 14 days ago.  Even better for the Cyclones:  they're 75-49-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take Iowa State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on Arkansas-Pine Bluff + the points over Prairie View A&M.  It's true the Golden Lions have lost their last nine games, but they've been competitive in defeat, as their last five losses were by 3, 8, 6, 1 and 2 points.  And they covered the spread in four of those five games.  I look for another ATS win by Arkansas-Pine Bluff tonight, as it's 15-7 ATS off back to back losses.  And double-digit underdogs off 7+ losses have covered 61% against conference foes off 7+ wins.  Take Pine Bluff.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Florida.  Bruce Pearl's men come into this game back to back losses at Kentucky and LSU.  And they also play this game with revenge from a 22-point loss at Florida in the last meeting with the Gators.  The good news for the Tigers is that they're back home in Auburn tonight, where they've gone 9-0 ATS off back to back road losses, when favored by 7 points or less (or PK).  And NCAA favorites off back to back defeats have gone 77-43-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Auburn.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern U. Jaguars minus the points over Alabama State.  Both of these Southwestern Athletic Conference teams enter tonight's game off a win nine days ago.  Southern defeated Pine Bluff, 73-71, on the road, while Alabama St. blew out Alabama A&M, 72-58, at home.  These teams also met once before this season, in Montgomery.  Southern was an 8.5-point road favorite in that game, but the Jaguars were upset, 66-64, by the Hornets.  Southern blew a 15-point lead in that game.  With revenge on its mind, I expect Southern to keep its foot on the pedal tonight, and win this game in a romp.  The Jaguars are 13-2 ATS their last 15 as a home favorite (or PK), and 6-2 their last eight as double-digit favorites (regardless of venue).  And they're 21-11 ATS off a SU win, and 4-0 ATS their last four when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Meanwhile, the Hornets have covered just 5 of 16 off a home win over a conference foe.  Finally, the Jaguars fall into a very good 185-96 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Lehigh Mountain Hawks + the points over Loyola Maryland.  The Greyhounds annihilated Lehigh on the road yesterday, 75-47.  The two teams will now play the rematch in Baltimore, and we'll grab the double-digits with the revenge-minded Mountain Hawks.  Without denying that Lehigh is a poor team, Loyola's still no great shakes, as it's 3-7 SU/ATS this season, and can't be trusted to lay a large amount of points.  Indeed, Loyola's covered just 26% over the past 14 years when laying more than 11.  And Loyola also falls into a negative 37-82 ATS system of mine which goes against certain big favorites with losing records.  Take Lehigh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Texas Southern Tigers over the Prairie View A&M Panthers.  The Panthers will resume their season here in Houston this afternoon, after not playing since February 1.  So, the fact that Prairie View was red-hot (with 6 straight wins) before its 20-day layoff must be discounted appropriately.  Indeed, in this COVID-impacted season, teams with 14-day (or longer) layoffs have under-performed against the spread, and especially if they were off wins, and not getting 3+ points in their current game.  We'll take the home-standing Tigers, as they fall into a 70-19 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, the Tigers play this game with revenge from a 4-point loss at Prairie View on Jan. 11.  That was the eighth straight time (and 16th of 20) that the home team has won the game, straight-up, in this Lone Star state rivalry.  And the Tigers are 9-1 their last 10 at home vs. the Panthers.  We'll look for the home court to once again be the difference, and take the Tigers to blow out Prairie View.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Albany Great Danes over Stony Brook.  The Seawolves snapped their four-game losing streak with an upset win here on Saturday.  But we'll lay the points with Albany, as it falls into a super 184-95 ATS revenge system of mine, and look for Stony Brook to resume its losing ways.   Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Michigan.  We played against Michigan on Thursday, and got the $$$ with Rutgers as a big underdog.  And we'll come right back here, and fade the Wolverines as a small road favorite in Columbus.  Ohio State enters this game red-hot, itself, with seven straight wins, and five straight covers.  And .666 (or better) teams are 71-44 ATS as home underdogs, if they're off 3 SU/ATS wins, and playing a conference foe off a SU win.  Ohio State is also 20-8 ATS its last 28 at home.  Even better, when matched up against opponents with a W/L percentage greater than .700, the Buckeyes are 27-11 ATS, including 8-0 ATS their last eight.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Houston.  The Cougars were upset by Wichita State, as a 7.5-point road favorite, and now are laying double-digits at home against an opponent (Cincy) off 4 straight wins.  But home teams, off an upset road loss as a favorite of more than 7 points, are a poor 18-40 ATS when laying more than 10 points vs. foes off a win.  That doesn't bode well for Houston this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Houston's a horrid 0-13-1 ATS at home off a loss when laying 7+ points to a conference foe with a .500 (or worse) SU/ATS record.  Take the Bearcats + the double-digits.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two Sun Belt rivals.  Georgia Southern won the most recent, 61-58, as a 3-point home dog, in Statesboro.  The Chanticleers do come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  But each of those was on the road, where Coastal Carolina is 1-5 SU this season.  At home, it's a much different story, as the Chanticleers are 11-1 SU.  Lay the points with Coastal.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies over Utah Valley State.  Yesterday, the Wolverines upset the Aggies, 69-66, as a 9 point underdog.  We'll look for the Aggies to rebound tonight here, at the Eastwood High School gym, in El Paso, as the Aggies have cashed 80% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge from a loss as a 9-point (or greater) favorite.  Meanwhile, Utah Valley has covered just six of its last 20 off a win.  Take New Mexico State.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers + the points over Grand Canyon.  We played on the Lancers last night, and I released the game overnight when the line was +11.  Later in the morning, around 9:44 am, the line moved down to +10, and then later, it moved further to +9.5 or +9, and the game fell on 10.  We'll come right back with Cal Baptist this Saturday night, as I continue to believe the Antelopes are overvalued here.  And revenge-minded WAC Conference teams are 114-70-3 ATS away from home off a SU loss, when playing an opponent off back to back wins, including 64-29 ATS when it lost the previous meeting by double-digits.  Take Cal Baptist.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins minus the points over IUPUI.  The Jaguars stunned Youngstown here last night, 72-70, as a 6-point underdog.  And that game snapped the Penguins' five game win streak (3-1 ATS).  We'll look for YSU to bounce back this afternoon, as IUPUI is 4-12-1 ATS its last 17 off an upset win, while the Penguins have cashed 67% off an upset loss in which they were favored by 6+ points.  Take Youngstown minus the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Bryant Bulldogs minus the points over Merrimack.  The Bulldogs are 10-5 have not played since January 30, when they lost back to back road games at Fairleigh Dickinson.  And Bryant was favored by 6.5 and 7.5 in those games.  But they're back home today in Smithfield, RI, where they've gone 6-0 this season, and 3-1-1 ATS.  We'll take the Bulldogs to bounce back today, as home teams, with a perfect home record on the season, have cashed 86% over the past 31 years (including 10-0 ATS their last 10) off back to back road losses where they were favored by 5+ points.  Indeed, we saw this situation occur a few weeks ago when Akron bounced back off back to back upset losses to defeat Toledo.  Lay the points with Bryant.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over S. Alabama.  The Mountaineers were upset, 65-63, by the Jaguars here last night.  Unfortunately, though, for South Alabama, it's covered just 25% over the last 31 years off an upset win, if it was on the road against a revenge-minded foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Take the Mountaineers.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes have won their last three games.  Meanwhile, the Eagles have lost their last five games -- both SU and ATS, including losses by 15, 22 and 21 points in their last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to on the hot Golden Flashes, and play against the ice cold Eastern Michigan here, especially because the Eagles are currently getting slightly less than 15 points.  But be careful, as conference underdogs on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, that have lost their three previous games by 15+ points, have actually been a solid 68.2% ATS.  And Kent is a wallet-busting 30-51 ATS off 3+ wins, including 1-9 ATS their last 10.  Finally, EMU falls into 431-242 and 132-53 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Eastern Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Indiana.  It's absolutely true this is the worst team Tom Izzo has fielded this century.  And it may prove to be Michigan State's first team to miss out on the NCAA Tournament since 1997.  But that doesn't mean we won't take this generous amount of points against an Indiana team which has only defeated Michigan State by 7+ points ONCE in the last 13 meetings.  Even worse for Indy: it has been extremely unreliable when laying 6+ points to Big 10 Conference foes, as it's covered just 29 of 87 regular season games, including 10-26-1 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back losses.  And Michigan State has gone 72-46 ATS when it's been below .500 in Big 10 Conference play.  Grab the points with the Green and White this afternoon.  Take Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers + the points over Grand Canyon.  The Antelopes are currently riding an 8-game win streak, and have yet to taste defeat in Western Athletic Conference play, as they're 6-0 in conference (and 9-3 overall).  But we'll fade them tonight, as they fall into a negative 42-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain top-level teams.  It's true that the Lancers come into tonight's game off a home upset loss to Big Sky-member Sacramento State.  But Cal Baptist is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS its last seven off a home loss, and 16-8 ATS its last 24 as an underdog.  And teams (like Grand Canyon) with a 5-0 (or better) conference record are a soft 32.6% ATS when favored at home by more than 8 points vs. conference foes off an upset loss.  Take the Lancers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Illinois-Chicago Flames minus the points over Wisconsin-Green Bay.  This is the first of two games this weekend between these Horizon League rivals.  And the Flames will look to snap a 7-game SU (and 4-game ATS) losing streak.  But five of those seven games were on the road, while the two home games were against the League's #1 team, Wright State, which is 15-3, and has won nine straight games.  Here, the Flames will be matched up against a Green Bay team which sits just above it in the Horizon League standings.  And Green Bay has been horrid away from home, as it's won just once in 11 outings (and has won just once of the last 13, dating back to last season)!  Indeed, it was a similar situation last year when these two teams met here, in Chicago.  The Flames were upset in their previous game, but were installed as a 2-point home favorite.  The result was 13-point blowout win by the home team.  Horizon League home teams have covered 71% off back to back upset losses by 7+ points.  Take the Flames minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Monmouth.  The Hawks have played 15 games this season.  When installed as the favorite (or PK), they're 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS.  But when the Hawks have been installed as an underdog (as they are, tonight), then they've gone 0-4 SU and 1-2-1 ATS.  Meanwhile, Rick Pitino's Gaels check in off back to back upset losses.  And they were favored by 8 (vs Manhattan) and 7 points (at Quinnipiac) in those two defeats.  But those two losses have triggered a 344-218 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites.  Additionally, Iona has covered 65.6% off an upset loss where they were favored by more than 4 points, including 77% ATS if it was favored at home in its current game.  Lay the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Loyola Marymount.  The Dons lost, 68-60, when these teams met in Los Angeles, in January.  So, San Francisco will be looking to avenge that loss tonight.  And it also will be looking to redeem itself after losing by 39 points here, at home, in its previous game.  We'll lay the points with the Dons, as .500 (or better) teams have cashed 67.9% at home over the past 31 years, if they lost at home by more than 28 points in their previous game, and weren't laying more than 7 points in their current game.  Additionally, San Francisco is 24-15 ATS off 3+ conference losses, while Loyola Marymount is a poor 40-68-1 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  Take the Dons minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Michigan.  Juwan Howard's troops are 14-1 and ranked #3 in the country.  Tonight, they'll welcome Rutgers to Crisler Arena.  And the Scarlet Knights are playing their best ball of the season.  Rutgers is 5-1 SU, and 4-2 ATS its last six games, including an impressive 67-37 win over Michigan State.  Over this stretch of six games, the Scarlet Knights have held their opponents to just 60.66 ppg.  And over the course of the season, they've held their foes to 67.9 ppg, almost 7 points below their opponents' offensive averages.  Rutgers has excelled vs. foes off ATS wins, as it's 23-10-1 ATS its last 34, including 12-2-1 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville State + the points over Belmont.  This is the 2nd matchup of the season between these Ohio Valley teams.  The Bruins won Round 1 in Jacksonville, 98-91, as a 7-point road favorite.  At the time, the Gamecocks were not in great form, as they were 0-3-1 ATS in their three previous games.  But since that game, the Gamecocks are 6-2 SU/ATS, including 4-0 SU/ATS their last four.  And they played one of their best games of the season their last time out when they crushed Edwardsville, 80-60, as a 9-point favorite.  Off that big win, we'll grab the double-digits with the road dog, as NCAA underdogs of more than 10 points have cashed 75% over the last 31 years off 4 SU/ATS wins, if they also won by 15+ points in their previous game.  Additionally, the Gamecocks are 12-1 ATS on the road off a 20-point (or greater) home win.  Take Jacksonville State.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers over Iowa.  The Badgers have long been a very strong home team.  And especially against the very best opponents.  Indeed, Wisky is 148-49 SU and 111-74-3 ATS at home vs. .700 (or better) opponents, including 58-27-2 ATS when the Badgers were playing with revenge.  And that's the situation tonight, as Iowa is 15-6 on the season, and defeated Wisconsin, 68-62, in the prior meeting.  Moreover, Wisconsin checks in tonight off a loss in its previous game.  But the Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS this season off a loss, and 10-1-2 their last 13 off a loss.  Take Wisconsin.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Southern Cal.  USC comes into tonight's game on a 6-game win streak, and is favored by double-digits over an Arizona State team which it defeated earlier this season by nine points, 73-64.  Arizona State also enters tonight off a win, as it bested the Oregon State Beavers in Tempe, 75-73, on Sunday.  We'll go against the Trojans at home, as they've covered just 49 of 133 at home off an ATS win, including 7-23 ATS when USC was favored between -7.5 and -12.5 points.  Meanwhile, Arizona State's a super 40-20 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, against foes off ATS wins, when ASA was playing with revenge from a loss by more than eight points earlier in the year.  Finally, over the last 30 regular seasons, Pac-12 underdogs of +9 (or more) points, off a SU win, have covered 67.3% vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win, if our underdog was playing with revenge from a loss in the season's first meeting.  Grab the points with the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wofford Terriers minus the points over The Citadel.  The Bulldogs continue to make friends "in Vegas," as they lost 70-66 to Chattanooga on Saturday, but covered as a double-digit underdog.  That was the Bulldogs' third straight ATS win, and they'll seek their fourth ATS win in a row tonight, here, in Spartanburg.  But we'll fade The Citadel against a revenge-minded Terriers squad.  In this season's first meeting, the Bulldogs pulled off a big upset, with a 77-69 win, as an 8.5-point underdog.  So, Wofford will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  And Wofford also will be looking to redeem itself from a 71-49 blowout loss at East Tennessee State, on Saturday.  We'll lay the points, as NCAA favorites (or PK), off a loss by 20+ points, have covered 83 of 134 regular season games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than five points in the season's first meeting, provided its opponent covered the spread in its previous game.  Even better:  the Terriers are 11-0 ATS off a road loss, if they were favored by 6+ points in their current game.  Finally, The Citadel is a woeful 10-28 ATS off a conference loss when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Wofford minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers minus the points over Wagner.  The Seahawks smashed the Mountaineers here, in Emmitsburg, last night, and will look for a 2-game sweep on this Wednesday afternoon.  But it won't be easy, as Mount St. Mary's is 14-9 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Additionally, favorites, playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) home loss in the season's first meeting, have covered 78% in the regular season over the last 31 years.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers minus the points over Valparaiso.  The Crusaders stunned the Panthers, 70-57, as a 7-point road underdog yesterday, and handed the Panthers their 2nd straight loss.  Northern Iowa now falls into a 343-217 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites of -2 (or more) points off back to back losses.  Additionally, revenge-minded home favorites off 8-point (or greater) upset home losses, have cashed 64% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  And .500 (or worse) SU/ATS Missouri Valley teams are 176-119 ATS at home when playing with revenge against a conference foe which is not off back to back wins.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boston Terriers minus the points over Holy Cross.  Yesterday, the Crusaders shocked the Terriers, 82-65, as a 6-point underdog.  And that was the 2nd straight upset loss suffered by Boston at the hands of Holy Cross, as it also fell 68-66, as a 15-point home favorite in January.  Over the last 31 years, home favorites of -4 (or more) points have cashed 70.2% when playing with revenge from two losses earlier in the season.  Moreover, the Terriers fall into a 60.8% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses vs. foes off ATS wins.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Southern Illinois Salukis minus the points over Illinois State.  The Redbirds thrashed the Salukis here at Banterra Center yesterday, with an 80-55 win as a 5.5-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with the home team this afternoon in the rematch, as home teams have cashed 63.1% over the last 31 years when playing with revenge from 25-point (or worse) upset home losses.  Take The Salukis minus the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Penn State.  The 'Huskers took heavily-favored Illinois into overtime earlier this week, before falling 77-72, as a 14-point underdog.  They're once again a double-digit underdog, and we'll grab the points with the Cornhuskers against a Penn State team which has scored 58, 55, and 56 points in its three previous games.   Even worse for the Nittany Lions:  they've covered just one of their last 12 conference games when laying double-digits.  Take Nebraska.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Towson Tigers plus the points over Northeastern.  Yesterday, the Huskies defeated the Tigers here, in Towson, by nine points, 76-67.  We'll take the home underdog in this rematch, as Towson is 45-21-2 ATS as an underdog (or PK) when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 33-12 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And the Tigers also fall into a 157-79 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams -- with worse records than their foe -- that are off SU/ATS losses.  Grab the points with Towson.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers over Michigan.  When these two teams met in Ann Arbor earlier this season, it was the Wolverines' "coming out party," so to speak.  U-M broke out to a 40-23 halftime lead against the then-No. 9-ranked Badgers, and extended the lead to 69-29, before finishing with a 77-54 victory.  To say the Badgers would like to avenge that embarrassing loss would be an understatement.  And I believe they will, as the Badgers are 68-24 ATS at home vs. .700 (or better) foes that don't have revenge and who also aren't getting 10+ points.  Take Wisconsin.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  The Mavericks will get another shot at the Kangaroos tonight after dropping a 10-point decision here last night.  We'll play on the Mavericks tonight, as they fall into 205-113 and 151-105 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off 6+ losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Additionally, at Game 16 forward, NCAA favorites that don't own a winning record have covered just 70 of 182 vs. conference foes with a win percentage less than .125. Take Omaha + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Detroit.  These two teams met last night, and the Titans upset the Vikings, 89-83, as a 3-point underdog.  But before last night's loss, the Vikings had covered four straight, and were 13-3-1 ATS their last 16 games.  We'll fade Detroit, as it's covered just 19 of 57 when playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Take the Vikings minus the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over Gonzaga.  These two teams met last month in Spokane, and the Bulldogs blew out San Francisco, 85-62.  Since that game, the Bulldogs have gone 9-0 straight-up (all by double-digits), but have covered just two of those games.  We'll take San Francisco in the rematch, as the Dons are 8-1 ATS as double-digit home underdogs their last nine.  And they also fall into a powerful 137-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season.  Finally, Gonzaga falls into a negative 28-74 ATS system of mine which fades certain road teams off double-digit road wins.  Take the Dons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Central Arkansas Bears + the points over Sam Houston State.  The Bearkats come into today's game off back to back SU/ATS wins over SE Louisiana and Nicholls State, while Central Arkansas has lost its last four games SU/ATS, including upset losses to Northwestern St and McNeese St in its last two outings.  But the good news for the Bears here is that double-digit dogs have covered 68.9% of conference games off back to back upset losses since 1990 when playing an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Central Arkansas + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Trojans were upset, 73-62, by the Red Wolves on the road last night, but return home for this rematch on Saturday evening.  Last night, the Trojans got off to a horrid start, and trailed by 18 at the half.  But they regrouped over the last 20 minutes, and outscored the Red Wolves, 40-33, in the second stanza.  I look for them to play a full 40 minutes today, and blow out Arkansas State, as Little Rock's a solid 33-18-1 ATS off an upset loss when playing a conference foe. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves have covered 0 of 7 vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset loss, and two SU/ATS losses, overall.  Finally, it's true that the Red Wolves have covered six straight.  But they now fall into negative 137-222 and 122-191 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off 4+ ATS wins.  Take Little Rock minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on IUPU-Fort Wayne + the points over Youngstown State.  Last night, the Penguins got the better of the Mastodons, 84-70.  Unfortunately, Youngstown's covered just 20 of 59 when playing a revenge-minded conference foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Moreover, Horizon League teams have covered 68% of conference games since 2007 off three double-digit SU/ATS losses.  And, finally, Fort Wayne also falls into a super 135-64 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses.  Take the points with the Mastodons.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over North Carolina State.  This is the 2nd time this season that Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils have been on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  The last time it occurred, they responded by winning SU/ATS vs. Georgia Tech, on January 26.  We played on Duke in that game, and we'll do so here, as well.  For technical support, consider that the Blue Devils are 24-7 ATS when they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes upset Bowling Green on the road in their last game.  And they've now been installed as a double-digit home favorite vs. Northern Illinois.  We'll go against Kent this afternoon, as .636 (or better) Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 11 of 58 games over the last 28 years off an upset road win, if they were favored by more than 4 points against a .575 (or worse) conference opponent (and just 3 of 25 games if favored by more than 11).  That bodes well for Northern Illinois today.  As does the fact that the Huskies are 16-5 ATS as double-digit dogs vs. foes off upset wins.  Take Northern Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Idaho State.  This will be the 2nd of back to back games between these cross-state rivals here in Pocatello.  The Bengals blew out the Vandals on Thursday night, 69-43, as 8-point favorites.  And that was the 2nd straight 26-point loss suffered by the Vandals, as they also lost, 90-64, at Eastern Washington last Saturday.  We'll grab the points with the underdog here, as revenge-minded NCAA teams off back to back 25-point (or worse) losses have covered 60% over the past 31 years if they lost earlier in the season to their opponent.  Take Idaho + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Bowling Green Falcons + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets have not been a reliable point spread favorite over the years.  And they've been especially poor when favored by 5+ points against .350 (or better) foes that were off a point spread defeat in their previous game, as Toledo's covered just eight of 38.  And that's the situation this afternoon, as Bowling Green checks in off an upset loss to Kent State this past Tuesday.  Take the Falcons + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Quinnipiac Bobcats minus the points over Canisius.  The Golden Griffins pulled their third straight upset win yesterday vs. the Bobcats, as they won, 74-67, as a 5-point road underdog.  But the Golden Griffins are a horrible 1-13-1 ATS off 3 SU/ATS wins when not getting 6+ points, including 0-9 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Quinnipiac.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Missouri-Kansas City.  In this match-up between two lower-tier Summit League teams, we'll take the points with the basement-dwelling Mavericks against UMKC.  The Kangaroos -- though not as bad as Omaha -- can't be trusted to lay points.  And even to a 2-16 team like the Mavericks.  To wit, the Kangaroos have covered just 41% as a favorite over the last 21 seasons.  It's true that Omaha comes into this game off back to back upset losses to Western Illinois.  However, sub-.300 NCAA teams, off back to back upset losses, have covered 65.1% away from home over the past 30 seasons when not favored by 7+ points.  So, that bodes well for the Mavericks tonight.  And, generally speaking, in match-ups between two bad teams, I prefer to take points rather than lay them.  Indeed, at Game 16 forward, NCAA favorites that don't own a winning record have covered just 69 of 181 vs. conference foes with a win percentage less than .125.  That also doesn't bode well for the Kangaroos tonight.  Take Omaha + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Idaho State.  Perhaps the 16th time will be the charm tonight for Idaho, which has yet to win this season in its first 15 games.  But this trip to Pocatello could be just what the doctor ordered, as the underdog has cashed six straight in this rivalry.  Even better:  the Bengals have covered just 1 of 15 home games when not getting 4+ points, while the Vandals are 79-39-4 ATS away from home off a SU/ATS loss when not getting 16+ points.  Grab the points with Idaho.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee State Tigers + the points over Morehead State.  The Tigers enter tonight's game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Eagles are in the midst of an 11-game win streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot road team, but be careful, as teams on 4-game SU/ATS losing streaks have gone 67% ATS over the past 11 years vs. foes on 10-game (or better) win streaks.  And the Tigers have cashed 24 of 36 vs. the Eagles, including 10-3 ATS when the Eagles were off a win in their previous game.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Kentucky Colonels + the points over Belmont.  The Bruins are currently riding a 17-game win streak, and come into this home game off back to back blowout wins over Eastern Illinois (89-61) and SIU-Edwardsville.  For the season, Belmont has yet to taste defeat in Ohio Valley Conference play.  But it's surely worth noting that, through a quirky schedule, the Bruins have yet to play either the 2nd best (Morehead State) or 3rd best (Eastern Kentucky) teams in the Ohio Valley this season.  And it only played the 4th best team (Jacksonville State) once thus far, and won that game by just seven points.  By my numbers, this price is inflated, and we'll take the undervalued road underdog Colonels + the points.  For technical support, consider that Eastern Kentucky is 35-14-2 ATS off a win, if they were getting more than seven points, including 29-10 ATS on the road.  Take the Colonels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Louisiana Monroe.  More often than not, I'll be on a college basketball team on a long losing streak.  But this is an instance where I will go against Louisiana Monroe, which has dropped its last 10 games.  The home team has covered the last four in this rivalry.  And Lafayette should be in an ornery mood after being upset by Arkansas State on Saturday, 83-77.  But Lafayette is a solid 19-10 ATS off an upset loss.  And it also falls into 56-12 and 81-34 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams off an upset defeat.  Lay the points.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies over Weber State.  This is the first of a 2-game set between these two Big Sky rivals.  Both tonight's game, and Saturday's contest will be played here in Missoula, at Dahlberg Arena, where Montana has won 154 of its last 184 home games.  The Grizzlies have also had tremendous success here vs. Weber State, as they're 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS their last 13 meetings.  This is a super situational spot for Montana, as it enters this game off an upset loss at Portland State, as a 2-point road favorite.  But Montana is a wallet-fattening 67% ATS at home off an ATS loss on the road in their previous game, while Weber is 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS away from home when playing an opponent that failed to cover as a favorite in its previous game.  Finally, Weber falls into a negative 18-69-4 ATS system of mine (which is also currently 1-23-1 ATS its last 25) that goes against certain teams off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Montana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Portland Pilots + the points over Pacific.  Faithful followers know I absolutely don't mind playing on bad college basketball teams, and the Pilots surely fit the bill, as they're 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS their last 10 games.  And they've lost their last three games by 25, 45 and 21 points!  But off those three losses, we'll step in and back the big underdog on Thursday.  Indeed, NCAA teams off 3 SU/ATS losses by 21+ points have cashed 61% since 1990.  Take Portland.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Carolina Catamounts minus the points over VMI.  These two teams met two weeks ago, and the Keydets came away with a blowout, 87-61, victory.  Since then, Western Carolina has gone 1-3, including 0-2 SU/ATS in their last two games, while VMI has gone 1-1, including an upset win over Wofford its last time on the court.  We'll take the Catamounts in this revenge spot, as NCAA revenge-minded teams, off back to back SU/ATS losses, have gone 55-24-3 ATS vs. conference foes if they lost the previous meeting by 24+ points, and weren't getting 2+ points in the current game.  Even better:  if its opponent was off a straight-up win, then our 55-24 system zooms to 30-8 ATS.  Take Western Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Georgetown.  This is a huge revenge game for Creighton, which was upset by the Hoyas last week, 86-79, as as 14-point home favorite.  The good news for the Bluejays tonight is that they're 34-2 SU and 25-9-2 ATS when favored by more than 4 points, and playing with revenge against a foe which defeated them earlier in the season.  Take Creighton minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over St. John's.  The Red Storm enter tonight's game off three straight upset wins, and have covered eight in a row, overall (including a 12-point win over Butler on Jan. 12).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Red Storm tonight as an underdog.  But .500 (or better) underdogs (or PK'em teams), off an upset win, and eight (or more) ATS wins in a row, have covered just 25% of conference games over the last 31 seasons.  And the Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS at home their last nine when playing with revenge.  Finally, the Johnnies are 13-30-1 ATS off a point spread win when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated earlier in the season.  Take Butler.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over South Alabama.  The Panthers were upset by Appalachian State in their last game, but have had the last 16 days off due to the coronavirus, while South Alabama has been in action twice over the previous four days.  Georgia State is 5-0 at home this season, and has outscored its foes here by an average of 27.4 ppg.  Dating back to 2017, the Panthers have gone 46-8 at home, and has covered 7 of 9 home games off an upset loss.  Moreover, it's 9-0 SU here at home vs. the Jaguars.  Lay the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over NC Greensboro.  The Spartans are 8-2 in Southern Conference play this season, and have strung together seven straight wins and covers coming into this game at Furman.  But upon close inspection, none of those seven wins by NC Greensboro were against teams that have a winning record inside the Southern Conference.  Furman, on the other hand, does have a winning conference record, and has been installed as a favorite in this home game, notwithstanding the fact that it's lost its last four games against the spread, including a 75-67 home upset loss to Wofford on Saturday.  We'll lay the points with Furman this afternoon, as it's 31-7 ATS as a favorite (or PK) off a loss by 8+ points.  Even better:  NCAA home favorites off four ATS losses have cashed 72% since 1990 vs. conference foes off six ATS wins.  Take Furman.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers over Indiana State.  This is a rematch of a game played yesterday, here in Cedar Falls.  The Sycamores emerged victorious, 61-57, as a 1.5-point road underdog in that one to notch their 7th straight win (and hand the Panthers their 2nd straight loss).  But we look for the Panthers to avenge that defeat today, as revenge-minded Missouri Valley teams are 57-30-2 ATS on home or neutral courts against foes off upset wins, if our revenger wasn't getting more than 1 point in the game.  And, even better, Northern Iowa is a terrific 42-8 SU and 36-12-2 ATS as a home favorite of less than 11 points vs. an opponent off a win, if the Panthers were playing with revenge.  And if Northern Iowa was off back-to-back losses, then our 36-12 stat zooms to a perfect 9-0 ATS.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies minus the points over Cal Baptist.  The Lancers came into El Paso (the Aggies' current home base, since they can't play in Las Cruces) last night, and stunned New Mexico State, 85-75.  We'll lay the points with the Aggies on this Saturday, as they fall into 98-30, 49-18 and 47-25 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off SU/ATS losses, as well as a 178-123 ATS system which plays on certain teams off upset losses vs. foes off upset wins.  Additionally, WAC Conference favorites have covered 63.1% since 1993 off upset losses vs. foes off upset wins.  Lay the points with the Aggies tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles minus the points over Tennessee-Martin.  The Skyhawks have covered just three of 14 games, while the Golden Eagles are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11, and we'll look for these two trends to remain intact on Saturday.  Tennessee Tech has been installed as a small road favorite, but it has completely dominated this series, with 28 wins in the last 40 meetings.  And the Golden Eagles are a terrific 33-14 ATS on the road off a road loss, when not getting more than 16 points.  Meanwhile, Tennessee-Martin is an awful 33-51 ATS as a home underdog its last 84.  Take Tennessee Tech to blow out the Skyhawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.