Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Idaho.  Southern Utah will play its final home game of the season tonight, and will attempt to snap a season-worst 5-game losing streak.  We'll lay the points with Southern Utah, as college teams have cashed 60% as double-digit favorites in their final home game of the season, if they were off back to back upset defeats.  Take the Thunderbirds.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears minus the points over Eastern Washington.  The Bears are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS their last nine games.  This will be Northern Colorado's final home game of the year, and it falls into a "Last Home Game" system of mine which is 61-15 ATS.  Even better:  the Bears are 39-23-1 when not favored by more than 7 points, while Eastern Washington's an awful 1-6 ATS at Northern Colorado when priced as an underdog of +10 or less points (or PK).  Take the Bears.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Chicago State Cougars + the points over Missouri-KC.  The Cougars have lost 18 straight games.  But this long losing streak has worked to create point spread value.  And non-winning NCAA teams (both SU and ATS), off 10+ losses, have cashed 69% on the road since 1990 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Chicago St. + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over San Diego State.  Nevada's 12-2 at home this season, and has won its last six games, overall (4-2 ATS).  We'll grab the points with Nevada, as home underdogs of +5 (or more) points that have won more than 10 home games on the season, with less than 3 home defeats, have gone 113-70 ATS since 1991.  Take Nevada.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona State.  The Trojans are red-hot "in Vegas," with 10 point spread wins in their last 13 games.  We'll lay the points with USC, which plays this game with revenge from a 2-point loss in Tempe three weeks ago.  And Pac-12 home favorites off a win have cashed 59% when playing with revenge from a road loss earlier in the season.  Take USC.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over George Washington.  The Rams come into this game off 5 SU/ATS losses.  But I love VCU to snap its losing streak this afternoon, as double-digit favorites on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks (both SU and ATS) have cashed 63.3% since 2000.  And VCU is 73.3% over the last 30 years off back to back upset losses.  Take Virginia Commonwealth minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners upset the Mountaineers, 69-59, in Norman earlier this month.  We'll lay the points with Bob Huggins' men, as they've gone 29-13 ATS as a single-digit home favorite with playing with revenge from a double-digit defeat.  Take West Virginia.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Air Force + the points over Colorado State.  Air Force defeated New Mexico on Wednesday, 60-58, while Colorado State lost, 66-60, at San Diego St.  This is the second meeting this season between these two teams.  The Falcons were blown out in the first meeting, 78-65, but I expect a much closer game this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that Colorado State's covered just 21 of 54 vs. revenge-minded foes off a straight-up win.  Take Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks + the points over Bowling Green.  The RedHawks upset Central Michigan here, in Oxford, on Thursday.  And that was the 4th time in five games that Miami-Ohio covered the spread.  Bowling Green, meanwhile, has been atrocious as a favorite, with just two ATS wins in their last 20 road games.  Take Miami-Ohio + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons + the points over College of Charleston.  Drexel lost at home by 11 points to the Cougars earlier this season.  But we'll take the Dragons this afternoon, as they've gone 17-4 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points, when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  Take Drexel.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles minus the points over Seton Hall.  Marquette blew out Georgetown, 93-72, here at home on Wednesday, and plays this game with revenge from a 14-point loss to the Pirates last month.  We'll lay the points with the Golden Eagles, as they're 23-12-2 ATS as a revenge-minded home favorite vs. foes with a winning SU/ATS record.  Take Marquette.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Penn State.  The Nittany Lions won Round 1, 89-86, vs. the Hawkeyes back in January.  But we'll take the Hawkeyes in the rematch here, in Iowa City.  The Hawkeyes lost their last game, 78-70, at Michigan State.  But Iowa is 5-0 ATS this season off a road loss, and it's also 10-0-2 ATS its last 12 at home.  Finally, the Hawkeyes are a super 28-12 ATS when playing with revenge from a close loss (by less than 10 points) away from home earlier in the season.  Take Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Brown Bears minus the points over Princeton.  The Bears were upset in their previous game by Cornell, 63-45, as a 3-point road favorite.  We'll lay the points with Brown this evening, as Ivy League schools have cashed 65.7% off a double-digit upset road loss since 1990, including 10-2-2 ATS the last 14.  Take Brown.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Quinnipiac Bobcats + the points over Fairfield.  The Bobcats have not made many friends in Las Vegas this month, as they're 0-8 ATS in February, including back to back SU/ATS losses to Monmouth and Siena this week.  But this losing streak has created significant point spread value this evening.  We'll grab the points with the road underdog, as NCAA road dogs have gone 208-153 ATS in regular season conference games since 1990 off back to back SU/ATS losses, if they were on an 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, the Stags are an awful 34-57-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite off a loss.  Take Quinnipiac.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Eastern Washington.  Southern Utah has dropped its last four games, but all four were on the road, where the Thunderbirds have gone 6-9 this season.  At home, it's been a different story, as Southern Utah's 8-4 here, in Cedar City.  These two teams met earlier this season in Cheney, Washington, and the Eagles won, 81-78, at home.  But we'll lay the points with Southern Utah tonight, as revenge-minded favorites with a winning record, off back to back losses, have gone 263-188 ATS if they lost the season's previous meeting on the road.  Even better:  the Eagles come into this game off an 80-70 win over Northern Arizona.  Unfortunately, they're a poor 9-24 ATS off a win by 7+ points, including 3-15 ATS away from home.  Take Southern Utah minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Grand Canyon Antelopes + the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies have ripped off 13 straight WAC Conference wins to start the season.  But they fall into a negative 13% system of mine which goes against certain teams that are undefeated in Conference play.  Don't be surprised if the Antelopes hand New Mexico State its first WAC loss tonight, as the Aggies are a poor 18-31 ATS away from home off 3+ home games.  Meanwhile, the Antelopes have cashed 67% off a road loss if they're matched up against a foe off a win.  Take the home underdog Antelopes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers minus the points over Cleveland St.  The Panthers lost to the Vikings by 17 points last month.  And they also were upset by Detroit, 79-73, in their last game.  Those two factors set up our play on the Panthers tonight, as Milwaukee's an awesome 23-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, provided they didn't cover the spread in their previous game, and had a win percentage of .363 (or better).  Take the Panthers minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Indiana.  These two Hoosier State rivals met earlier this season in Bloomington, and the Boilers upset the Hoosiers, 74-62, as a 3-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, Matt Painter's men have not won since, as they've lost their last four games, including a 71-63 upset loss here in West Lafayette, on Saturday.  We'll lay the points with Purdue, as it's 29-18 ATS as a favorite off an upset Big 10 Conference loss, including 12-2 vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take Purdue.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Boston.  The Jazz were ripped, 131-111, by the Phoenix Suns, on Monday.  And that 20-point home loss, as an 8.5-point favorite, was Utah's 2nd biggest home defeat as a favorite of more than 7 points, over the last 30 years.  We'll take the Jazz to rebound tonight, as they've gone 31-12 ATS at home off a double-digit home upset loss.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Maryland.  The Gophers snapped a 3-game losing streak when they went into Northwestern on Sunday, and blew out the Wildcats by 26 points.  That victory moved Minnesota's Big 10 record to 7-9, while Maryland's conference record is 12-4 following its loss to Ohio State.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the underdog Terrapins, given its superior conference record.  But consider that, at Conference Game #6 forward, underdogs with a .750 (or better) conference record have covered just 37% over the last 27 years (and 2-17 ATS the last six years) vs. foes with a losing conference record that were off a win in their previous game.  Even better:  the Gophers have covered 67% over the last 30 years as a home favorite (or PK) vs. conference foes with a winning SU/ATS record, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss.  Take Minnesota.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Northern Iowa.  The Panthers are having a terrific season, as they are 23-5 SU and 17-8 ATS following their 64-52 win on Sunday vs. Southern Illinois.  Unfortunately, the Panthers have covered just 25% as a home favorite over the past 25 seasons vs. teams with a losing SU/ATS record.  Take Evansville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the VCU Rams minus the points over Massachusetts.  The Rams come into this game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But we'll lay the points tonight on the road vs. the Minutemen, as VCU has cashed 65.2% since 1990 off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. conference foes off a win (including a sensational 78.5% ATS as a favorite).  Take VCU minus the points.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Los Angeles.  New Orleans has won 8 of 11, with its only three defeats to the Rockets, Bucks and Thunder -- all Playoff teams.  And the Pelicans will look for their 3rd straight win tonight -- all on the road -- against a Lakers team also playing well, with five straight wins.  We'll grab the points, as New Orleans is 14-3 ATS off back to back road ATS wins.  And it also falls into a 207-130 ATS system which plays on certain revenge-minded teams off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Alabama.  This is a huge revenge game for Mississippi State, which lost by 21 to the Crimson Tide last month.  I love the Bulldogs tonight, as they also come into this game off an 87-75 upset loss to the Texas A&M Aggies.  And SEC Conference teams are a solid 44-24 ATS when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) loss in the season's first meeting, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Moreover, Miss State is 47-27 ATS off a double-digit road loss, while Alabama is a dreadful 18-39 ATS as a road underdog of 7 or less points vs. foes off a point spread defeat.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee.  The Raptors have been installed as a home underdog tonight, notwithstanding the fact that they've won 17 of their last 18 games (12-6 ATS), including a most-impressive 127-81 win over Indiana on Sunday.  Even better:  the Raptors are 34-22 ATS vs. the league's better teams (with win percentages greater than .625), while the Bucks have fared poorly as a favorite of 4 points or less (9-20 ATS).  And, finally, the Raptors are an incredible 13-0 ATS their last 13 at home after not giving up more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  The RedHawks upset Kent in Oxford last month, 77-74.  But we'll take the Golden Flashes in the re-match, as they're 31-1 straight-up, and 26-4-2 ATS when Pk'em or favored against a .585 (or worse) opponent, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  It's true that Miami is on a 3-game ATS win streak.  Unfortunately, it's a wallet-busting 10-24 ATS off three ATS wins, including 0-8 ATS if its opponent was off a home loss. Take Kent State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Iowa.  These two teams are tied (along with three other teams) for 2nd place in the Big 10 Conference, with 10-6 records (Maryland leads with a 12-4 mark).  Both teams come into this game off a win.  The Spartans blew out Nebraska by 21 points last Thursday, while Iowa defeated Ohio State by nine on the same night.  We'll lay the points with the Spartans tonight, as they've dominated the Hawkeyes here, in East Lansing, with a 20-1 record since 1994 (15-6 ATS).  Even better:  at home, Michigan State has compiled an incredible 64-23-4 ATS record when not favored by double-digits, if the Spartans were well-rested, and had at least the three previous days off.  Lay the points with Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over TCU.  The Cyclones come into this game off back to back blowout losses to Kansas (91-71) and Texas Tech (87-57), while TCU is off an upset win over West Virginia.  I love Iowa State to rebound from those defeats, as it plays this game with revenge from a two-point loss in Fort Worth last month.  And college basketball favorites have cashed 67% since 1990 off back-to-back 20-point losses, if they played with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Iowa State.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Kentucky.  The Aggies are playing great basketball, as they come into this home game off three straight upset wins.  We'll grab the points with Texas A&M, as it's 39-22 ATS its last 61 as a home underdog.  And Kentucky is a poor 2-13 ATS off 3 straight wins.  Take Texas A&M + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Duke.  The Blue Devils thrashed Wake Forest, 90-59, in the season's first meeting.  We'll take the home underdog tonight, as .390 (or better) revenge-minded, double-digit home dogs have cashed 63% since 1991 if they lost the season's first meeting by 25+ points.  Take Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Phoenix.  The Jazz come into this game off a double-digit, upset loss to Houston, on Saturday.  But off that defeat, we'll look for Quin Snyder's men to rebound here, at home, on Monday.  Indeed, Utah's 35-12 ATS if it was favored off a double-digit home loss, and its foe was not off a double-digit loss.  Even better:  the Jazz have won eight straight in this series (6-2 ATS), and 15 of 16 (10-5-1 ATS) over the last five seasons.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Texas.  These two teams met earlier this year in Morgantown, and Bob Huggins' men blew out the Longhorns by 38 points.  But I doubt that overconfidence will be an issue this evening.  After all, West Virginia just lost to TCU, 67-60, in Fort Worth, on Saturday.  And it had also blown out TCU earlier this season, in Morgantown, 81-49.  Overall, the Mountaineers have now dropped four of their previous five games.  Of course, two of those four losses were to Top 3-ranked Kansas and Baylor, so there's no shame in losing to each of those teams.  West Virginia is a fantastic 39-18 ATS in competitive games with point spreads less than 10 points, if WVU is off a point spread defeat.  And Texas is a poor 4-12 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS at home.  Take WVU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Boston.  The Celtics embarrassed the Lakers, 139-107, at Boston, on January 20.  But we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Lakers this afternoon, as NBA favorites of 4+ points, with a win percentage greater than .706, have covered 72% in the Regular season since 1990, when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 24 points.  Take the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets had last night off following their 135-105 blowout of Golden State to kick off their post-All-Star Break campaign.  The Jazz, on the other hand, were stunned last night by the Spurs, here in Salt Lake City.  San Antonio won outright as a 9-point road underdog, 113-104.  We'll take the Jazz to bounce back tonight, as Utah is 27-10 ATS as a home favorite off an upset loss by 9+ points, while Houston is 1-12 ATS on the road off a 30-point win, if their opponent is off an ATS defeat.  Take Utah minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on The Citadel + the points over Western Carolina.  The Bulldogs played very well in defeat when these two teams met in Charleston, back on January 4.  Western Carolina won that road game, 86-82, but didn't cover the 7-point spread.  We'll take the Bulldogs in the rematch as a double-digit underdog, as the Catamounts are an awful 13-29-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than six points.  Take The Citadel. 

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over California.  The Golden Bears snapped their 4-game losing streak with an upset win over Washington State on Wednesday, while Washington was upset by Stanford two nights ago.  But off its upset road win, we'll fade California this evening, in Seattle, as the Bears are an awful 28% ATS over the last 30 years off an upset road win, if matched up against a conference foe off a SU loss.  And Washington is 22-7 ATS at home off an upset loss, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -1.5 to -12 points.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats minus the points over Rhode Island.  Davidson lost to the league's doormat, St. Joseph's, on Tuesday, so it will be looking to redeem itself this evening.  Also, the Rams defeated the Wildcats by 11 points in the season's first meeting, in Kingston.  But all of this sets up today's play, as Davidson is a fantastic 23-12 ATS when playing with revenge, including 9-1 ATS off a loss.  Take the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Wyoming.  The Falcons enter this afternoon's game on a horrid 9-game point spread losing streak, and are now 9-18 ATS.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 13-12 ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade the ice cold Falcons.  But consider that NCAA Teams on 9-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 59.1% over the last 30 years vs. foe with a winning ATS record.  Take Air Force minus  the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State.  The Wolfpack have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, and they're 14-6 ATS their last 20 as home dogs vs. foes off a win, including an upset victory over Duke in their most recent game.  Additionally, revenge-minded ACC home underdogs have gone 179-131 ATS vs. conference foes off back to back conference wins.  Take North Carolina State + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Delaware Blue Hens + the points over Hofstra.  This is a great match-up between two teams that have already reached the 20-win mark.  Delaware earned victory #20 with a 22-point win as a home underdog vs. Northeastern, on Thursday.  And conference underdogs, off 20-point upset wins over conference foes, have cashed 165 of 291 since 1990.  Take the Blue Hens.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over William & Mary.  The Dukes will play their 3rd straight home game today, after dropping their first two on this home stand.  We'll grab the points with James Madison, as William & Mary's an awful 0-19 ATS away from home vs. conference foes with a win percentage between .255 and .450 that are off back-to-back ATS losses.  Take James Madison + the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Morehead St. Eagles + the points over Tennessee St.  The Tigers were blown out, 83-62, at Eastern Kentucky, on Thursday.  And that extended the Tigers ATS Record away from home to 4-16 ATS their last 20.  This afternoon's game is also on the road, in Morehead.  And it will also be Morehead State's final home game of the season.  And we'll take the Eagles + the points, as they fall into a 59-33 ATS "last home game" system of mine, as well as a 76-45 ATS revenge angle.  Take Morehead St.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins + the points over Northern Kentucky.  The Penguins upset Wright State, 88-70, as a 5-point home underdog in their previous game.  And that was Youngstown's eighth straight ATS win as a home underdog (and 15th of their last 18).  Even better:  the Penguins are now 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 as an underdog (regardless of the venue), including 6-1 ATS if they lost earlier in the season to their opponent.  Take Youngstown St. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Ball St. Cardinals minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles have won and covered their last three games, including a 21-point blowout of Kent St., as a 2.5-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, they've covered just 51 of 127 games off back to back wins, and are also 7-26 ATS their last 33 off back to back wins, when priced from +3.5 to +6.5 points.  Take the Cardinals.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Missouri.  The Razorbacks lost two weeks ago to Missouri, in Columbia, 83-79.  And they've lost five straight, overall, coming into this game.  But Arkansas has always played MUCH BETTER at home than on the road.  Indeed, the Razorbacks are an awful 115-173 ATS their last 288 on the road.  But they're also a super 62-35-2 ATS at home off a road loss.  Take Arkansas minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Baylor.  The Jayhawks will be out for revenge this afternoon, as they lost at home to Baylor by 12 points last month.  We'll grab the points with Kansas, as it's covered 78% over the last 30 years when playing on the road with revenge from a home defeat.  Meanwhile, Baylor's covered just 12 of 35 home games vs. revenge-minded foes that sought revenge from a home defeat earlier in the season.  Take Kansas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Tennessee.  The 13th-ranked Tigers look to rebound off their two losses to Missouri and Georgia.  But those were road games; today's game is at home.  And the Tigers are a solid 75% ATS since 2002 in SEC Conference games off back to back SEC road losses.  Take Auburn.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Titans minus the points over Wisconsin Green Bay.  The Titans are on a 5-game losing streak (1-4 ATS), including back to back upset losses here, at home, to Cleveland State and Youngstown State.  But off those two upsets, we'll step in and take Detroit as a small, 1-point favorite, as it's covered 63% over the last 18 years as a favorite in conference games off an upset loss.  And it's covered 61.1% at home off back to back SU/ATS losses when playing with revenge.  Take Detroit.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Columbia Lions + the points over Brown.  The Lions enter tonight's game on a 7-game losing streak (3-4 ATS), including a 72-66 defeat at Brown back on February 1.  But the good news for Lions' fans is that they're 50-32 ATS vs. Ivy League foes if the Lions were off back to back losses, including 39-19 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take Columbia.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Buffalo.  Kent State was blown out by 21 points, as a 2.5-point road favorite, by Eastern Michigan, on Tuesday, which was Kent's worst game (ATS) this season.  The culprit was Kent's shooting percentage (29.1%), which was the lowest percentage (by far) it shot this season.  But immediately before this game, Kent had its second-best shooting performance of the season (53.1%) in a 15-point blowout win vs. Ohio.  So, it's best to just chalk up Tuesday's debacle to "variance."  We'll look for Kent State to bounce back this evening, as it falls into 48-14 and 37-7 ATS angles of mine which play on certain teams off loss vs. foes off wins.  Take Kent State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Morehead St. Eagles + the points over Belmont.  The Bruins have won and covered each of their last five games, while the Eagles are off back to back SU/ATS losses.  The knee-jerk reaction, then, might be to lay the points with red-hot Belmont, which already defeated Morehead St. by 18 points.  But be careful.  Indeed, since 1990, double-digit favorites have covered just 38%, if they were off back to back SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was a revenge-minded, losing team off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And, along the same lines, Belmont has only covered 36% since 1990 vs. revenge-minded foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Morehead St. + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. 

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa.  I expect the 22nd-ranked Cougars to be in an ornery mood tonight.  They lost in overtime at SMU, 73-72, on Saturday (which was their 2nd straight point spread loss).  And they also will play this game with revenge from a 63-61 loss at Tulsa -- a game in which Houston went the final 5:32 without a field goal!  But the Cougars had won the previous five games (4-1 ATS) in this series prior to that loss.  And Houston's an awesome 43-23-4 ATS as a favorite (or PK) when playing with revenge against a conference foe, including 25-9-4 ATS if the Cougars owned a better conference record.  Finally, the Cougars are 8-1 ATS off back to back ATS defeats.  Lay the points with Kelvin Sampson's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Oklahoma State.  Tonight, the Mountaineers will welcome the Cowboys to Morgantown.  And Okie State has not been a good traveler, as it's 52-75 ATS as a road underdog of +4 or more points.  The Mountaineers are on a rare 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Cowboys are off back to back upset wins.  But WVU is a super 9-3 ATS its last 12, and 21-13 ATS its last 34, off 3 straight point spread defeats.  And Oklahoma State is a poor 43-64 ATS off a home win vs. a conference foe.  Take the Mountaineers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks have won five straight, and own the league's best record, at 46-7, while Indiana has lost its last six in a row.  But there are several reasons why I love the Pacers to get back into the win column tonight.  The most obvious, of course, is that Milwaukee will play tonight's game without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will be at home with his family following the birth of his son, Liam, on Monday.  There's no doubt the Bucks are still a dangerous team without Antetokounmpo, but the fact remains that Indiana has outscored Milwaukee in their two games this season when he wasn't on the court, but was outscored by 47 points when he was on the court.  And that leads us to our second reason:  the Pacers are 139-76 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge, if they were off a loss, and their opponent was off a win.  Finally, Milwaukee has covered just 11 of 38 off 3+ wins, if their opponent was rested, and off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Indiana + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors.  The Heat lost for the 3rd straight time (both SU and ATS) last night when they fell, 115-109, at Portland.  They'll play the 4th game on their 6-game road trip tonight, in Oakland.  And they'll no doubt be happy to face a Warriors squad they blew out by 17 in Miami earlier this season.  And the Warriors have been awful this season vs. winning teams, as they're 1-21 straight-up vs. foes with a winning record (and 2-8 ATS vs. winning foes when not getting more than 11 points).  Meanwhile, Erik Spoelstra's men are 42-17-2 ATS when they were on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 11-0 ATS in this situation since Nov. 3, 2017.  Lay the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Cleveland.  Doc Rivers certainly wasn't happy with his team's effort last night.  L.A. was favored by as many as 10 points, but lost outright by 27 points to a Timberwolves team which hadn't won in almost a month.  Tonight, the Clippers will have a great opportunity to redeem themselves, as they'll face a Cavaliers team which they beat by 25 points less than four weeks ago.  I expect another blowout, as .682 (or better) NBA clubs have bounced back to cover the spread 75% of the time in the regular season since 1990 off horrible losses, in which they failed to cover by 35+ points.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers minus the points over Morehead St.  The Eagles won the first meeting in Morehead, 69-66, back on January 11.  And they enter this afternoon's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS win streak after defeating SIU-Edwardsville, 58-49, on Thursday.  We'll lay the points with Eastern Illinois, as it's covered 67% since 2001 as a favorite vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  College Basketball home favorites of more than 6 points, on a 3-game losing streak, have covered 63% over the last 30 years, if playing with revenge from a road loss earlier in the season, and their foe was on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver.  These Northwest division rivals met last week, and the Nuggets upset Utah, 106-100, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  In that game, Utah was unrested, as it played at San Antonio the night before, while Denver was rested.  The tables are turned for this game, as Utah has not played since Saturday, while Denver hosted Portland last night.  We'll lay the lumber with Utah, as the Jazz are 104-71 ATS when rested, and matched-up against an unrested foe off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Toronto.  The Raptors have won 11 straight games.  But 9 of the 11 wins were against teams that won't be going to the Playoffs.  Their only two impressive wins in this stretch were against the OKC Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers.  Tonight, the Raptors will play the first of back-to-back games against the Pacers, with the re-match on Friday in Indianapolis.  We'll grab the points with the Pacers, who come into this game off back to back home upset losses to New York and Dallas.  And Indiana is a super 69% on the road since 1990 off back to back upset losses when playing a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Take Indiana.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Detroit Pistons.  The Suns have dropped three straight games (both SU and ATS).  But those three games were all against foes with a better W/L record.  Tonight, the Suns will get a relative breather when they face the 18-34 Pistons.  Phoenix is a super 59-37-3 ATS when favored on the road vs. a foe with a worse W/L record, including 21-6-2 ATS if the Suns are off a SU/ATS loss, while Detroit is 5-14 ATS as a home dog vs. a foe with a better W/L record.  Phoenix also falls into 144-84 and 100-54 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take the Suns.

At 9 pm, on ESPN2-TV, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Baylor Bears.  Baylor's 19-1, and ranked #1 in the country, while K-State is 9-12 on the season.  But the Wildcats have covered their last three games, and now fall into an 86-48-8 ATS 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any home underdog off 3 ATS wins, with a strong home court (that has won at least 32 of its previous 40 home games), if it was playing an opponent off a SU win.  Take Kansas State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Denver.  The Nuggets earned an impressive, 127-115, win at Milwaukee on Friday to snap the Bucks' 9-game win streak.  That was Denver's 2nd straight upset win (it also upset Utah on Thursday).  But off those two big wins, we will fade the Nuggets in Detroit this afternoon.  The Nuggets are a horrible 29-55 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 5-23 ATS as a favorite.  And NBA teams have covered just 35.5% since 1993 off a double-digit upset win over a .740 (or better) foe, if they were a double-digit underdog in that upset win.  Take Detroit + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the SE Missouri State Redhawks + the points over Eastern Kentucky.  The Colonels are on a 4-game win streak.  But three of those four wins were on the road.  Now, they're back home where they've NOT performed well over the years.  Indeed, Eastern Kentucky is an awful 44-70-1 ATS here at home in Richmond, including 10-29 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points off a win.  Even worse:  the Colonels come into this game off a 99-86 victory over Tennessee-Martin.  But they're 2-14-1 ATS off a double-digit win, including 0-8-1 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  Take the Redhawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers + the points over Arkansas St.  The Red Wolves are on a 5-game ATS win streak, including outright upset wins in each of their last three games.  Unfortunately, teams (like Arkansas State) off five straight ATS wins and 3 straight upset wins have covered just 42 of 103 games since 1990.  Even worse:  the Red Wolves are 0-5 ATS as a favorite vs. Appalachian St, while the Mountaineers are a solid 37-24 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  Finally, Appalachian State falls into several of my favorite NCAA systems, with records of 165-82, 125-65 and 144-67 ATS since 1990.  Grab the points with the Mountaineers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over West Virginia.  The Red Raiders play tonight's game with revenge from a 66-54 loss in Morgantown on January 11.  And West Virginia has gone 3-1 SU/ATS since that game, including back-to-back SU/ATS home wins over Texas and Missouri last week.  Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, tonight's game is away from home.  And the Mountaineers have covered just 14 of 46 games away from home, if they were off back-to-back ATS wins.  Lay the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Samford Bulldogs + the points over Chattanooga.  This is a big revenge game for Samford, which was handed its worst loss of the season by the Moccasins, 105-67, earlier this month.  We'll grab the points with the home underdog, as Chattanooga's a disastrous 6-27-1 ATS when favored (or PK) over a revenge-minded opponent which it defeated by more than 10 points in the previous meeting.  Take Samford + the points.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores plus the points over Kentucky.  Vanderbilt's on a seven-game losing streak (including 0-5 ATS its last five).  That's the bad news.  The good news -- at least for tonight's game -- is that double-digit SEC Conference underdogs, off 4 ATS defeats, are 30-12 ATS vs. conference foes not off 4 ATS losses.  Vanderbilt also falls into 119-54, 417-228 and 38-10 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Commodores + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over Richmond.  These two rivals are located less than 6 miles apart in the city of Richmond.  And the Spiders have not had much success vs. the Rams, including 8-18 ATS when playing away from their home gym.  This season, both of these teams have identical 15-5 records, and 5-2 Atlantic 10 Conference records.  The Rams did get off to an AWFUL start "in Vegas" this season, as they opened with a 4-13 ATS record.  But they're 3-0 SU/ATS since that horrid start, including an 11-point road win at La Salle on Saturday.  I look for VCU's resurgence to continue this evening, as VCU is a super 29-15 ATS in conference games as a favorite off back to back wins.  And it also falls into a 338-216 ATS "momentum" system of mine which plays on certain favorites of more than 4 points off back-to-back wins.  Take the Rams to blow out Richmond.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Valparaiso.  The Aces have lost their last 7 games -- both SU and ATS, including a 73-50 defeat at home to Drake, on Wednesday (and a narrow, 2-point loss to Valparaiso on Jan. 4).  But this long SU/ATS losing streak has created great point spread value for this game, and has triggered several great systems of mine, with records of 164-90, 118-54, 416-228, 157-76 and 523-381 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, Missouri Valley Conference teams are a solid 103-71 ATS as double-digit road underdogs, if they lost the season's earlier meeting.  And Evansville is 7-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Aces lost by 20+ points at home in their previous game.  Take the Aces + the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  The Bruins won the first leg of their 2-game road trip when they upset Oregon State, 62-58, as a 9-point road underdog.  And that was the Bruins' 2nd straight win, overall.  Unfortunately, UCLA is a poor 18-37 ATS off a road conference win, if they also won 2 games back.  And the Ducks are an awesome 42-21-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 18-4 ATS when playing with revenge.  With the Ducks, indeed, having revenge from a pair of losses last season, we'll lay the points with Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers over Maryland.  Both of these teams own identical 15-4 records, and 5-3 conference records.  Earlier this month, the Terrapins won Round 1 when they defeated Indiana in College Park, 75-59, as a 6.5-point home favorite.  But we'll take the Hoosiers in this re-match, as .750 (or better) revenge-minded favorites, off back to back SU/ATS wins, have gone 146-95 ATS at home since 1990.  Take Indiana.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the St. Joseph's Hawks + the points over George Washington.   The Hawks were blown out, 73-60, at home on Tuesday by VCU.  And that was their 6th loss in their last seven games.  And they're just 4-15 on the season.  But the Hawks are an awesome 32-9-1 ATS on the road off a double-digit loss, including 15-2 ATS if their previous game was at home.  And St. Joseph's also falls into 2 of my favorite systems, with records of 43-9 and 195-96 ATS since 1990. Take the Hawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Wisconsin.  Matt Painter's men dropped their second straight game, 79-62, on Tuesday vs. Illinois.  But we'll lay the points with Purdue tonight, and look for it to bounce back in a big way vs. a Wisconsin team off an 82-68 victory vs. Nebraska.  Purdue is a solid 34-14-2 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 10-2 ATS off back to back losses, if now matched-up against a Big 10 Conference foe.  Purdue's 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS at home vs. the Badgers, and it's also 12-0 ATS in the regular season vs. Wisconsin when priced from -3 to -9.  Lay the points with the Boilers.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs were upset, 51-50, at home by North Texas on Saturday.  And they're now a double-digit road favorite here in Murfreesboro.  Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, road favorites of -9 (or more) points are a terrible 23-51-2 ATS off an upset loss at home.  And Middle Tenn is a solid 123-96 ATS at home, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points in conference games.  The Blue Raiders fall into 448-266 and 487-320 ATS systems of mine.  Take Middle Tenn + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Denver.  The Rockets collapsed two nights ago, as they were outscored by 21 points in the 4th quarter to lose to OKC by five, 112-107.  We'll take the Rockets to rebound off that loss, as they'll benefit by facing an injury-riddled Nuggets squad tonight.  Starters Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray all are sidelined for Denver.  And it's not as if Denver's had much success vs. Houston even when fully healthy.  Indeed, Houston's now won seven straight home games vs. Denver (5-2 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games, overall.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At  7:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Lakers minus the points over New York.  The Lakers had their worst defeat of the season when they fell to Boston, 139-107, on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.  We'll lay the points tonight with L.A., as the Lakers are 107-78 ATS on the road in non-division games vs. losing teams off a point spread win.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 74% ATS in his career as a road favorite of -6+ points off an upset loss.  Take the Lakers.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over Detroit.  The Kings have lost five straight games after falling in overtime at Miami on Monday.  But they're an awesome 19-4 ATS on the road off a road loss, if they're off back to back losses, overall.  Take Sacramento.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over San Diego St.  The Aztecs, at 19-0, remain the country's lone unbeaten team.  But we will grab the double-digits with Wyoming, which has lost its last six games.  The Cowboys play with revenge from a 20-point loss to San Diego St. less than two weeks ago.  And Mountain West conference road underdogs of more than 13 points have gone 42-18 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road underdog was playing with revenge.  Even better:  undefeated teams, with a 19-0 or better record, have covered just 35.1% since 1990 at home, including 20% vs. foes with a .455 (or worse) win percentage.  Wyoming also falls into two of my favorite College Basketball systems, that are 194-94 and 94-37 ATS since 1990.  Take the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Indiana.  We played on the Jazz two nights ago, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out Sacramento, 123-101.  Meanwhile, the Pacers won in Denver vs. the Nuggets last night for their fifth straight win.  We'll come right back with Utah on Monday, as it seeks revenge from a 19-point loss in Indianapolis earlier this season.   And the Jazz fall my best revenge system, which is 78-19 ATS since 1990.  Even better:  Utah's 16-2 SU its last 18, and 11-2 ATS its last 13.  Finally, Utah is an awesome 67-35 ATS when rested, and playing an unrested foe off back-to-back wins.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Oklahoma City.  These two teams met 11 days ago in Oklahoma, and the Thunder came away with a 113-92 victory, as a 3-point home underdog.  We'll take the Rockets in this re-match, as they're 24-13 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 11-1 ATS if they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points in that defeat.  Houston also falls into a 197-128 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Rockets.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Charlotte.  The Magic stumbled badly in their last two games -- at the Clippers and at the Warriors -- as they lost by 27 and 14 points, respectively.  But Orlando had covered seven of eight prior to those two games.  The loss at Golden State was particularly embarrassing, as the Warriors were on a 10-game losing streak entering that game.  But teams off upset losses to foes on long losing streaks tend to bounce back in their next game, and the Magic fall into a 60.8% ATS system of mine which plays on such teams.  Orlando's 14-6 ATS as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Charlotte's an awful 20-36-2 ATS off a loss by 7 or more points.  Take the Magic.

At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  Last week, we played on the Packers and were rewarded with a 28-23 victory over Seattle.  And that was Green Bay's 6th straight win, overall.  Unfortunately, its win streak should come to a screeching halt this weekend, as it falls into a negative system, which is 5-35 SU and 9-31 ATS.  What we want to do is play AGAINST any underdog of +3 (or more) points off 5+ wins, if it's now playing a foe with a winning record.  And even though there's nothing wrong with 31-9 ATS, we can improve our situation to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS by solely going against teams that don't average 24.85 points per game on offense.  It's absolutely true that Green Bay will certainly want to avenge its blowout loss here earlier in the season.  But revenge-minded NFL teams have performed very poorly in Conference Championship road games, as they've gone 16-28 ATS.  Also, the 49ers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as home favorites priced from -3 to -7.5 points in the Playoffs.  And NFL favorites, priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points have gone 30-15 ATS in Conference Championship games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento.  The Jazz are one of the league's hottest teams, with 15 wins in their last 17 games (11-4-2 ATS), though they did lose their most recent game this past Thursday, at New Orleans.  In contrast, the Kings are mired in a 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS stretch.  But Utah's an awesome 32-6 SU and 27-10-1 ATS at home when both it, and its foe were off losses (including 15-1-1 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -10 points).  And it also falls into a 73% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the West minus the points.  The West has dominated the East-West Shrine game of late, with 4 straight wins.  And, in those four games, the East squad has averaged 9.7 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for the East team on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that the East's three QBs are Tommy Stevens (Miss State), Kevin Davidson (Princeton) and James Morgan (Florida International).  In contrast, the West has the best QB (Mason Fine, North Texas) on its roster, along with Tyler Huntley (Utah) and Kelly Bryant (Missouri).  Lay the points with the West in the Shrine game on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Quinnipiac.  The Jaspers' leading scorer, Tykei Greene (12.1 ppg), has been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight's game.  And that's all I needed to pull the trigger on Manhattan, as Manhattan falls into a 125-55 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset wins.   The Jaspers have gotten off to a 3-1 start in MAAC play this season, even though they've been underdogs in three of their four games, including an upset win as a 2.5-point home dog vs. Siena their previous game.  Manhattan's 55-34 ATS off a conference win, while the Bobcats are a poor 9-17 ATS off back to back wins, including 2-10 ATS if their last win was by double-digits.  Lay the points with Manhattan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs came back from an 18-point deficit to stun the Raptors on Sunday, 105-104.  San Antonio was a 5-point underdog in that game.  However, the Spurs are still a horrible 4-42 straight-up, and 19-26-1 ATS when installed as a road underdog of +4 or more points.  Meanwhile, the Heat are 44-17-2 ATS off back to back losses when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the LA Clippers.  The Clippers finished their 4-game home stand with back-to-back wins over the Knicks and Warriors, but they failed to cover the spread in each game.  Los Angeles will now travel to the Pepsi Center to play a Nuggets team which surely will be in an ornery mood following its upset loss yesterday.  And perhaps the Nuggets were looking ahead to this match-up vs. the Clippers when they played the Cavaliers last night.  Because, clearly, Denver didn't show up.  The Nuggets were favored by 12.5 points, but lost, 111-103, to the woeful Cavs.  And that's continued a trend this season where the Nuggets have lost to many of the league's worst clubs (e.g., Kings, Hawks, Pelicans (twice), Wizards).  Denver, typically, has bounced back from such embarrassing losses, as they've gone 6-0 the past two years after losing to a team with a win percentage below .300.  Also, some good news for Denver, tonight is that the Clippers' Paul George won't suit up due to a hamstring injury.  Even better:  the Nuggets have won and covered nine of the last 12 meetings here vs. the Clippers, including 21 and 27-point victories last season.  Finally, the Clippers are an awful 3-23 straight-up, and 4-22 ATS as a single-digit underdog (or PK) in non-division games, if the Clippers won their previous game, straight-up.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Oklahoma.  The Cyclones were blown out by Kansas, 79-53, on Wednesday, and fell to 0-2 in Big 12 Conference play.  But I love them to bounce back tonight, here at home, vs. Oklahoma.  ISU has been installed as a small home favorite.  And the Cyclones are an awesome 43-22 ATS as single-digit home favorites off a conference defeat.  Moreover, the Cyclones have dominated the Sooners, with a 33-16 ATS record, including 9-2 ATS their last 11.  Finally, Iowa State falls into 29-2, 41-11 and 123-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Iowa State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia.  We played on Boston last night vs. San Antonio, and were on the wrong side of that game, as the Spurs blew out the Celtics, 129-114.  But off that loss, I look for Brad Stevens' men to rebound tonight against their division rival.  And Boston will catch a break, as Sixers big man, Joel Embiid, will be sidelined for tonight's game (and the foreseeable future) with a dislocated finger.  In Embiid's stead, tonight, will be veteran power forward Al Horford, who played the last three seasons in Boston.  Unfortunately for Philadelphia, Horford's best days are now behind him, as he's shooting a career-worst 45% from the field.  And, yes, it's true that this will be Boston's 5th game in seven nights.  But since Stevens assumed the coaching duties in 2013, the Celtics are a jaw-dropping 14-0 ATS as a road underdog when playing their fifth game in seven nights.  Additionally, the Celtics are 16-6 ATS under Stevens in the regular season when playing with double-revenge.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Houston.  Brett Brown's Sixers were blown out by the Pacers on Tuesday, 115-97.  And that was Philly's 3rd straight loss, overall -- all on the road.  But I look for the 76ers to bounce back in the underdog role tonight, at Houston, as NBA road teams have gone 281-228 ATS in the regular season off a double-digit SU/ATS loss, if they weren't getting more than 6 points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win, including 42-14 ATS vs. .625 (or better) non-division foes.  Even better:  rested NBA road teams have gone 179-122 ATS in the regular season off 3 straight road losses, if now playing a winning opponent.  Take the 76ers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Arlington Mavericks minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Mavericks hope to win the Sun Belt Conference this season (after finishing 2nd the past two seasons).  The Mavs were the preseason #2 pick to win the Sun Belt Conference this season, in part, because they returned five starters from last year's team which went 12-6 inside the conference.  But they've gotten off to an 0-2 start, after road losses at Georgia State (last season's champ) and Georgia Southern (12-6 last season).  I look for them to break through tonight, and earn their first conference win, against a Red Wolves team which returned just one starter from the team which finished ninth (7-11) in the league last season.  Arlington is 53-32-4 ATS off a loss.  And it also falls into a super 73.2% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Texas Arlington minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the St Johns Red Storm + the points over Butler.  These two teams met here last February, and the Johnnies upset Butler, 77-73, as a 3.5-point home dog.  At the time of that game, both teams had losing 5-6 records in Conference play.  But both teams look to be improved this season.  Butler's 12-1, while St. John's is 11-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS thus far.  Butler's been installed as a road favorite, once again.  But we'll take the home team tonight, as .800 (or better) home dogs, with a winning ATS record, have cashed 60% over the last 30 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Moreover, Butler's a dismal 5-16 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-12 ATS with revenge.  Take St. John's.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Yale.  The Tar Heels have been installed as a single-digit home favorite vs. the Bulldogs.  And, over the years, the Tar Heels have dominated non-conference foes here in Chapel Hill.  Since 1990, North Carolina's gone 149-16 straight-up, and 101-62-2 ATS in its lined games at home vs. non-conference opposition.  And if UNC was playing a top-level opponent with a win percentage greater than .750, then UNC has been even better -- 52-3 straight-up, and 39-16 ATS, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -10!  Take North Carolina minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Golden State.  Last night, the Mavs upset Phoenix here, at home, 105-96.  But off that win, we'll fade the Warriors, as unrested home underdogs off an upset win at home the previous day, have cashed just 21.7% vs. rested opponents since 1990.  Take the Mavericks to blow out Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Pittsburgh.  This Quick Lane Bowl game will be played in the backyard of Eastern Michigan, as Detroit's Ford Field is just 36 miles away from Ypsilanti.  So, the crowd will definitely lean in favor of the underdog.  Pitt comes into this game off back to back losses -- and failed to cover the spread in those defeats by 16 and 24.5 points -- yet it's laying almost two touchdowns to the Eagles.  I have all the respect in the world for the job Pat Narduzzi is doing at Pittsburgh, as his team ranks #11 in defense this season (302.5 ypg).  But one of the things I will RARELY do in a bowl game is lay a lot of points -- and especially if the favored team isn't one of the best teams in the country (like an Alabama, LSU, Ohio State or Clemson-type of team).  And Pitt is certainly not of that caliber.  Another thing I will rarely do is lay ANY amount of points with a team which isn't playing well.  It's one thing to TAKE points with a team off a loss, or back-to-back losses to end the season.  But quite another to lay points with such clubs.  To wit:  since 2004, Bowl favorites, priced from -7.5 to -17.5 points, off back to back losses, are 0-11 ATS!  And, speaking of 11-0 ATS, that's the Eagles' point spread record away from home vs. non-conference teams when Eastern Michigan wasn't getting more than 15 points.  Finally, Pitt is a wallet-busting 8-22 ATS when laying 8+ points away from home, including 0-10 ATS if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game by double-digits.  Take Eastern Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Golden State.  The Warriors enter today on a rare 2-game win streak (their first win streak of the season).  But the Warriors have not performed well off a win, as they're 11-28-1 ATS their last 40, including 0-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs.  And, speaking of double-digit underdogs...they're a miserable 25.3% ATS at home off a home win since 1990, provided their win percentage was less than .400.  Take Houston minus the points.  NBA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over BYU.  The Cougars mustered just 3 points in their final regular season game -- a 13-3 defeat at San Diego St.  And that was their fourth straight point spread defeat to end the season.  Hawaii, in contrast, covered three of its last four games (and won four of its last five).  We'll fade BYU tonight, as it's a horrid 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite.  Even worse:  teams that scored less than 7 points in their previous game have covered just 13.3% in the Bowls over the last 40 years provided they weren't getting 5+ points, and also not playing with revenge.  And BYU isn't playing with revenge here, as it defeated Hawaii in Provo last year, 49-23, as an 11-point favorite.  This game, however, is in Honolulu.  And home underdogs have covered 64.1% in the post-season since 1980.  Finally, Hawaii's a super 22-3 ATS at home, if it owned a winning record, and didn't fail to cover the spread in the previous meeting by more than 15 points.  Take the Rainbow Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have won 10 straight games (their last loss was to these Browns), and are the odds-on favorite to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.  But the point spreads of really good teams tend to be inflated late in the season.  And this game is a perfect example, as Cleveland is getting double-digits at home (which is roughly the same point spread dealt in Baltimore's road game at then-winless Cincinnati in mid-October).  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as home underdogs of +9 (or more) points have gone 14-0 ATS in the season's final four weeks vs. .833 (or better) opponents.  Additionally, the Ravens have covered just 3 of 19 road games off a win by 18+ points, and have also covered just 16 of 41 vs. foes playing their final home game of the season.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over New Orleans.  The Pelicans come into this game off a win over Minnesota.  But the Timberwolves have now lost eight games in a row.  And the Pelicans had lost 13 in a row before Wednesday's win.  But it wasn't just that New Orleans had lost 13 straight -- it also was 0-9-1 ATS in its 10 previous games.  With that as a backdrop, it's tough to make an argument for laying points on the road with New Orleans -- even against a team like Golden State which has lost its last five games.  But the Warriors have been competitive this year, and have played hard, even if they haven't won games.  Indeed, the Warriors are 12-11 ATS off a loss this season.  And that compares favorably to New Orleans' 35.7% ATS record this season, which is the 2nd-worst of the 30 NBA teams.  Golden State is a terrific 38-18 ATS at home off a loss when matched-up against foes off a win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -3 to +2 points.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.