Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Damian Lillard & Co. went into Beantown yesterday, and upended the Celtics at TD Garden, 129-119. That was Portland's 4th straight win (and cover), which sets up our play tonight.  The Hawks have been dominant over the years here, in Atlanta, vs. opponents off 4+ wins, as they're 72-46 ATS, including 28-8 ATS vs. unrested foes.  And they're also 41-27 ATS at home when rested, and not laying 7+ points vs. unrested Western conference foes.  Finally, the Blazers are a wallet-busting 13-30 ATS vs. revenge-minded, winning Eastern conference foes when Portland isn't getting 3+ points.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off a 17-point blowout win over Chicago at Madison Square Garden - their 13th ATS win in 14 games.  But this will be a difficult task for New York as it's favored by a huge amount on the road.  And it's the biggest number New York has been favored by on the road since March 21, 2014, which is troubling considering the fact that it's 6-18 ATS its last 24 as a road favorite of more than 6 points.  We played against Houston last night, and got the $$$ with Miami, in a 26-point blowout.  The Rockets will once again play at home tonight, and we'll grab the points with Houston, as I look for them to bounce back today.  Indeed, home teams that lost by 15+ points at home the previous day, have cashed 69% since 1990 when matched up against opponents off a SU/ATS home win.  Take the Rockets + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Charlotte.  Miami won its second straight game last night, with a 124-107 blowout of Cleveland.  It will seek its 3rd straight win and cover tonight, as it travels to Charlotte to play the Hornets.  It's true that Charlotte has defeated Miami in each of the first two meetings this season.  But double-revenging road favorites (or PK) have cashed 59% in the regular season since 1990 if they were off a SU win.  Take Miami.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met six days ago, and the Mavs were upset on the road, 113-106, by Sacramento.  Dallas hasn't lost since, and it eked out a 1-point win against Washington last night.  Today, Dallas will go for its 4th straight win and cover, and has been installed as a big favorite vs. the Kings, who upset the Lakers on Friday.  Unfortunately for Sacramento, it's covered just 50 of 122 games off a win, if it was a road underdog against a revenge-minded foe.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 goals over Detroit.  Yesterday, the Red Wings upset Tampa, 1-0, in a shootout.  But the final score belied the complete dominance by the Lightning.  Tampa outshot Detroit by a 33-15 count, which only tells part of the story.  Bad luck befell the Lightning, as they hit four posts, and also had a goal overturned due to goaltender interference.  The result was a shutout defeat.  But that bodes well for the Lightning this afternoon, as they're 27-4 in their last 31 games after scoring less than two goals.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  These two Western conference rivals are battling it out for 3rd place, so this game will go a long way toward determining the teams' playoff seeding.  We'll go against Denver off its double-digit victory against Toronto, and take Los Angeles to bounce back off its 109-101 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday.  That was the Clippers' second straight defeat.  But each of those losses was on the road; tonight's game is at home.  And L.A. is a solid 45-20 ATS off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when favored by 7 or less points against a winning team.  Meanwhile, Denver is a horrid 15-38 ATS away from home off a win by 9+ points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met three weeks ago, and Minnesota thoroughly embarrassed New Orleans, 135-105, as an 8-point underdog.  That 30-point loss was the first time in franchise history that New Orleans lost by 30+ points as a favorite of -5 (or more) points.  But we'll lay the points with the Pelicans tonight, as favorites have covered 62.6% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Take New Orleans.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets come into this game off an upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks, 143-136, while Golden State checks in off 2 SU/ATS losses.  We'll lay the points with the Warriors tonight, as Golden State is 33-17 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, if it was playing an opponent off a win.  Even better:  NBA home teams not favored by 7+ points, have cashed just 32% since 1991 off an upset home win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog, if they were playing an opponent off a SU loss in their current game.  Take the Warriors.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We're coming down to the wire in this NBA season, so this game will go a long way toward determining the #1 seed in the Playoffs.  Currently, Utah resides in first place, while Phoenix is just one game behind.  This has been an underdog-oriented series of late, as the dog has cashed each of the last four meetings.  Tonight, Utah's the underdog, primarily because it will play without All Stars Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.  But there's still enough firepower on Utah's roster to get the 'W.'  Indeed, the Jazz scored 154 points on Wednesday (the most points scored by an NBA team this season), in a 49-point blowout of the Sacramento Kings.  We played on the Jazz in that game, and will come right back with them tonight.  For technical support, consider that .720 (or better) NBA road underdogs of 2+ points have covered 73.6% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge.  Take the Jazz + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Two nights ago, the Thunder snapped their 14-game losing streak with an upset win over the Boston Celtics.  But off that rare victory, we'll fade OKC as a home underdog on Thursday.  Indeed, home dogs of +8 (or more) points off an upset win have covered just 33% since 1991 vs. non-division foes off a straight-up loss.  Take the Pelicans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings upset Dallas, 113-106, on Monday, while the Jazz come into this game off back to back upset losses -- both to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  We played on Utah in its last game and (unfortunately) lost.  But we'll come right back with the Jazz tonight, as Sacramento is a terrible 19-40 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, when it is playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.  And NBA favorites are 71.1% ATS since 1991 off a SU loss as a double-digit road favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto.  These Atlantic division rivals met six days ago here, in Tampa (the Raptors' home base for the season), and the Raptors prevailed, 114-103.  That game, though, was a good set-up for Toronto, as it was well-rested, while the Nets had played the previous night.  And neither Kevin Durant nor James Harden played for Brooklyn in that game.  Durant is healthy again, and Brooklyn is currently riding a two-game win streak, with impressive wins over Boston and Phoenix.  The Nets are a super 44-21 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bucks were stung by the Hornets in the last meeting, as Charlotte upset them, 127-119.  But with revenge on its mind, and also off an upset loss in its previous game, we'll look for Milwaukee to bounce back this evening.   And Charlotte's win a few weeks ago must be taken with a grain of salt, as Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that game.   But the MVP is back on the court now, and scored 31 points on Sunday vs. Atlanta.  Milwaukee's 45-20 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -5.5 to -10.5 points, while Charlotte is a horrible 46-89 ATS at home vs. non-division foes playing back to back road games, if such foe failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Bucks.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Indiana Pacers.  Portland plays this game with revenge from a 24-point upset home loss to these Pacers on January 14.  And that bodes well for the Blazers, as they've cashed 75% over the last 31 years as a favorite of -2 (or more) points, when playing with revenge from a double-digit home loss.  And, notwithstanding its loss to Indiana in January, the Trail Blazers are still 13-3 ATS vs. the Pacers in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 here in Indianapolis, and 7-0 ATS if Indy was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Portland.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met two nights ago in Salt Lake City, and the T-Wolves stunned the Jazz, 101-96, as a 12-point underdog.  And even more stunning is the fact that the 17-44 Timberwolves also defeated the 44-16 Jazz in the season's first meeting -- also in Salt Lake -- as a 9.5-point underdog, 116-111.  But with revenge from those two losses, we'll lay the points with Utah tonight, as double-revenge-minded road teams have cashed 90% over the last 31 seasons if they owned a win percentage at least 33% greater than their opponent.  Even worse for the T-Wolves:  in the regular season, teams playing back to back games against the same opponent are a horrible 23.8% ATS since 1995 if they won the first meeting on the road as an underdog of 7 (or more) points.  As faithful followers know, I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And Minnesota is a wallet-breaking 5-17-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-12 ATS when priced as an underdog from +6 to +17 points.  Take Utah to blow out Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off nine straight wins, including double-digit upset wins over Atlanta (137-127) and Toronto (120-103) in their last two.  Unfortunately for New York, underdogs off back to back double-digit upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points, have gone 0-10 ATS.  Take Phoenix to blow out New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Lakers come into tonight's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS losing streak.  But those three losses were to the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks (twice).  Tonight's game is against the Orlando Magic, who are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak (and who have lost 11 of their last 12 games).  The problem for the Magic is that they've had a "red carpet" defense of late.  Four of their last five opponents have shot 50% from the floor.  The Magic are an atrocious 4-17-1 ATS at home vs. foes off a loss, including 1-10-1 ATS as an underdog.  Lay the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta.  These two teams have already met twice this season, with each game won by the Hawks.  But both games were competitive (Detroit lost by eight, 128-120, on December 28, and in overtime on January 20), and both games were in Atlanta.  Tonight's game is in the Motor City, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  The Pistons are competing hard this season for coach Dwane Casey, and they're at their best when they're off an ATS loss, as they're 20-5 ATS in that situation, including 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Atlanta will be at a scheduling disadvantage tonight, as it will be unrested, and playing its 3rd game in four nights (and fifth game in seven nights).  Meanwhile, the Pistons are rested.  And revenge-minded NBA teams off a loss have cashed 59.2% ATS vs. unrested foes off a win that were playing their 3rd game in four nights.  Take the Pistons.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Charlotte.  This series has been dominated lately by the Celtics, as they've won the last four meetings by 21, 26, 17 and 30 points.  Even better for Boston:  it's 16-3-1 ATS over the last 20 meetings, including 10-1 ATS if the Hornets were off a win, and 7-0 ATS if Boston was laying 7+ points.  Boston does come into this game off a SU/ATS loss to the Brooklyn Nets, but it's a solid 34-18-2 ATS as a rested favorite, away from home, off a loss.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are a wallet-busting 24-47-2 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, if matched up against a rested, non-division foe off a loss.  Lay the points with the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Detroit.  This game will be the 2nd in two nights for Detroit, and also its fifth game in seven nights.  Unfortunately for Detroit, the Spurs have generally done well vs. unrested teams, as they've gone 100-73 ATS.  But those numbers zoom to 25-9 ATS if the Spurs are off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS if San Antonio's foe was playing its fifth game in seven nights.  Last night, Gregg Popovich's crew were embarrassed here, at home, by the Miami Heat, 107-87.  We'll play on the Silver and Black to rebound this evening, as San Antonio is 41-12-2 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 17 points, when matched up against a foe off an ATS win.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here, in Sacramento, last night.  And the Timberwolves came away with a 134-120 upset win.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, unrested teams off upset wins the previous day, have covered just 37% since Dec. 21, 1990, if they scored more than 130 points in that upset win.  Moreover, Minnesota is a poor 27-46-1 ATS off an upset road win, including 6-21 ATS when priced between +3 and +8 points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Detroit.  The Mavs were upset by Sacramento, here at home, in their previous game, while Detroit upset the Cavaliers in its most recent game.  That bodes well for the Mavericks, as they're 116-72 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the New York Knicks.  Last night, New York covered the point spread in its 10th straight game.  But we'll fade New York tonight, as home teams have covered just 13% of the time off 10+ ATS wins in the regular season, if they also covered the spread by 5+ points in their previous game.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the New York Knicks.  It's often said that "all good things must come to an end," and that's the case today with the Knicks ATS win streak.  Dating back to April 3, New York has covered its last eight games.  But New York is a horrid 0-12 ATS if it was on a 7-game (or better) ATS win streak, and wasn't getting 6+ points in its current game.  This is also a rematch of a game won by the Knicks, 116-106, in New Orleans this past Wednesday.  But New York is a wallet-breaking 34.6% ATS over the last 31 years as a favorite of more than 2 points against a non-conference foe it upset in the previous meeting earlier in the season.  Finally, New Orleans comes into this game off back to back upset defeats.  However, the Pelicans are 8-1 ATS their last 9 off two straight upset losses.  Take the points with New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  This will be Miami's final game in its 4-game road trip.  And, after losing back to back games against Phoenix and Denver, Miami will no doubt be happy to play the NBA's worst team tonight.  Minnesota has won just 14 of its 56 games this season.  And, since 1990, losing teams are a poor 43% ATS as home dogs in non-division games vs. rested, winning teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, Miami is 25-6 ATS away from home off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Giannis Antetokounmpo has just been upgraded to 'probable,' so we'll put the trigger on the Bucks.  Both teams do come into this game on win streaks.  The Bucks routed the Magic by 37, and the Timberwolves by 25.  Meanwhile, Atlanta's won its last three in a row, including back to back upset wins over Charlotte and Toronto in their last two.  Generally speaking, I like to go against teams off back to back upset wins, and especially if they're matched up against foes also in good form, off back to back wins, themselves.  Dating back to 1990, our teams off back to back upset wins are a poor 166-228 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Hawks have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings, straight-up, vs. Milwaukee.  And Atlanta's only win was by a single point, 136-135, in overtime.  Finally, Atlanta's a poor 20-39 ATS as home dogs off a win, if they're matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Mavs come into tonight's game off back to back home losses, including an 18-point blowout at the hands of the Philly 76ers.  I love Dallas to rebound off those defeats, and get the W tonight at Memphis.  Indeed, the Mavs are 24-6 straight-up, and 23-6-1 ATS their last 30 as road favorites of less than 7 points, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off back to back losses.  Even better:  Dallas is a terrific 77-39-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points.  And it's 116-71 ATS off a loss, if its opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors. It has just been announced that Trae Young will not play for Atlanta, so that's enough for us to pull the trigger on the Raptors. Take Toronto tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We played on Houston last Monday vs. these Suns, and got the cash when the Rockets lost by just three points, 133-130, as a 14-point home underdog.  And we also played on the Suns in their last game, which was an easy win for us vs. the Wizards (134-106).  Tonight, we'll once again take Houston as a double-digit underdog, as it comes into this game off back to back blowout losses, at the Clippers, and at the Warriors.  But Houston is a solid 91-59 ATS on the road as an underdog off back to back ATS losses, including 39-17 ATS when playing with revenge.  And Phoenix is a horrid 9-29 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points, if it was off a win, in which it covered by 9+ points.  And the Suns are also 0-7 ATS their last seven vs. Houston, if the Suns were off a double-digit win.  Take the Rockets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  Milwaukee's banged-up right now, as many key players (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton) missed its last game -- a 127-119 loss to Charlotte.  The good news tonight is that Milwaukee should still have its way with the Magic, regardless of which Bucks players suit up for this game.  Orlando's lost four straight, and 17 of 21.  And it's an awful 16-33 ATS its last 49 vs. .595 (or better) foes.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 34-17 ATS vs. sub-.650 foes, if Milwaukee lost its previous game.  Finally, over the last 31 years, road favorites with a win percentage greater than .600, have covered 65% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte.  These two teams are surprisingly having strong seasons, as they sit in the 4th (Charlotte) and 5th (Atlanta) spots in the Eastern conference.  So, this game is critical for playoff positioning.  We'll take the Hawks, as they fall into a 145-66 ATS revenge system of mine, after losing, 113-105, to the Hornets in the last meeting.  Additionally, the Hawks are 11-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a road loss.  And, since 1990, they've cashed 67% as road favorites vs. winning teams, if Atlanta was playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  Yesterday, the Wizards upset Golden State, 110-107, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Washington in the Valley of the Sun tonight, as Phoenix is playing with revenge from a 128-107 upset loss to Washington earlier this season.  The Suns are 33-18 ATS this season -- an NBA best -- and they're doing their best work at home, where they've covered the spread by 3.37 points per game.  The Suns are 15-5 ATS their last 20 at home, and they also fall into a 58-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .673 (or better) teams playing with revenge from losses by more than 20 points.  Finally, since 1997, Phoenix has covered 63% at home off a loss vs. foes off upset road wins.  Take Phoenix to blow out Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies and Hawks both played last night.  Memphis went into Miami, and upset the Heat, 124-112, for its 3rd straight win (and 5th straight cover).  Meanwhile, Atlanta defeated New Orleans here, at home, 123-107, for its fourth straight win and cover.  We'll go against Memphis tonight, as this will be its 3rd road game in four nights.  And NBA teams that were playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, have covered just 37% over the past 31 seasons if they were off two wins, and matched up against an opponent with a better W/L record, which was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The Hawks are a super 105-56-4 ATS at home in the regular season vs. foes off 3+ wins, including 31-8-2 ATS its last 41 if its opponent was unrested.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia.  These two teams met earlier this season in Philadelphia for a back-to-back set.  And the 76ers won each of those two games, by 8 and 12 points, respectively.  But this game is in Boston, and we'll take the homestanding Celtics to avenge those defeats.  Boston comes into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Houston (118-102) and Charlotte (116-86), and has gone 5-2 ATS its last seven.  That bodes well for Brad Stevens men tonight, as they're 56-23 ATS off a home blowout win by more than 20 points.  And they're 32-12 ATS at home when not favored by 3+ points, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Philadelphia, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last five to the point spread.  And the 76ers are a poor 8-22-1 ATS as road favorites vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, including 0-7-1 ATS if their foe was playing with revenge.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Rockets are 2-25 straight-up, and 5-22 ATS over their last 27 games.  Their problems started when forward Christian Wood sustained an injury in the February 4 game at Memphis, and the Rockets lost their next 20 games.  But Wood returned to action on March 17.  And, then, over the next week, Houston made roster moves to bring in Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, D.J. Augustin, and D.J. Wilson.  And it is now playing better basketball, as it's 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS its last seven, and has "only" been outscored by an average of 4.42 ppg over this stretch.  Tonight, Houston has been installed as a huge home underdog against the Western conference's #2 seed, the Phoenix Suns, who are on a 5-game winning streak.  This is a letdown spot, as the Suns blew out Oklahoma City by 37 points on Friday, and have games against the two teams (Jazz, Clippers) that sit above and below them in the standings, on Wednesday and Thursday.  We'll take Houston tonight, as double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage less than .285, off a straight-up loss, have gone 140-73 ATS vs. .630 (or better) foes that are off a straight-up win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Atlanta.  The Warriors were blasted, 130-77, by the Toronto Raptors on Friday.  But off that loss, we'll take Golden State to rebound this evening against the Hawks.  The good news for Steve Kerr's troops is that superstar Steph Curry will be back on the court tonight.  Curry has missed six of the Warriors' last eight games, due to a tailbone contusion, but was upgraded to 'probable' on Saturday afternoon.  As faithful followers know, I love to play on teams off big losses.  And they don't get much worse than 53 points.  Indeed, NBA favorites (or PK) off losses by more than 40 points have cashed 68.1% over the last 31 seasons!  That bodes well for Golden State on Sunday night.  As does the fact that the Warriors will be playing this game with revenge from a 124-108 loss earlier this season in San Francisco.  And Golden State is a super 51-25 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Meanwhile, the Hawks have covered just 34 of 95 as underdogs against rested, revenge-minded foes that they beat by more than 10 points earlier in the season (and just 14 of 55 if their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss).  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last night, the Kings were blown out here, at home, by the injury riddled Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles played without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and newly-signed Andre Drummond, which made Sacramento a 5-point home favorite.  No matter.  The Lakers won without their stars, 115-94.  Perhaps Sacramento thought it was going to have it easy, and lost focus?  But, as luck would have it, tonight they will face Milwaukee without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.  However, with last night's result fresh in the minds of the Kings, I fully expect them to NOT take the Bucks lightly tonight.  Instead, I look for Sacramento to be focused, with an eye toward redeeming itself off its 21-point home loss last night.  The Bucks come into this game off back to back road wins.  But, since 1999, Milwaukee's covered just 38% on the road off back to back road wins.  Take Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Orlando.  Will this finally be the year that Utah wins an NBA title?  The Jazz certainly are playing like it.  They're 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency; 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency; and #1 (by a mile) in Net adjusted efficiency.  Indeed, the only other teams that rank among the top 10 in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency are the Suns and Bucks.  But they're 3.75 and 4.24 points, respectively, behind Utah in Net adjusted efficiency.  Not surprisingly, the Jazz are also doing great "in Vegas," as they're #2 in the NBA with a .625 ATS win percentage (30-18 ATS), trailing only the Phoenix Suns (32-16 ATS).  Utah did, however, fail to cover the point spread in each of its two previous games.  But in the 2nd half of the NBA season (Game 42 forward), NBA teams with a .625 (or better) ATS win percentage, off back to back ATS losses, have rebounded to cover the spread 72.4% over the last 31 years when they were playing at home.  Even better:  Utah's 17-4 ATS its last 21 at home; 8-2 ATS its last 10 at home when playing without rest; and 151-109 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Gonzaga.  I think it's safe to say that we should throw out UCLA's last four Pac-12 games (all losses) to end its conference season.  And that's because Mick Cronin's men have been a completely different animal in this tourney.  They've defeated Michigan State (86-80), BYU (73-62), Abilene Christian (67-47), Alabama (88-78) and Michigan (51-49).  But look more closely at their wins over Michigan State and Alabama, and you'll notice that both went into overtime.  In regulation, UCLA held Michigan State to 77 and Alabama to 65.  Thus, in this tournament, the Bruins have given up an average of 60 points per game in regulation.  That's impressive, in and of itself.  But then consider the teams that UCLA has faced.  Their opponents included Michigan, which ranks 9th in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency rankings; BYU, which ranks 20th; and Alabama, which ranks 29th.  Yet through regulation time, UCLA held Michigan to its lowest offensive output of the season, BYU and Abilene Christian to their 2nd-lowest, and Alabama to its 5th-lowest.  Certainly, Gonzaga is another animal, altogether.  The Bulldogs rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and have yet to lose a game.  Indeed, Gonzaga has only played one team which came within single-digits (West Virginia, 87-82).  Still, I believe the points will be valuable today.  And, for technical support, consider that NCAA Tourney favorites of more than 10 points, off back to back double-digit SU/ATS wins, are a horrible 8-32 ATS against foes seeded #15 (or better).  Finally, in the NCAA's Final Four, favorites of more than eight points have gone 1-7 ATS since 1991, with only North Carolina (-10, 83-66) covering against Syracuse in 2016.  Take the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over the Baylor Bears.  The Cougars were an ATM Machine in Vegas during the regular season, as they went 18-8 ATS (.692 ATS pct.), and covered the point spread by an average of 5.32 ppg.  Those two marks ranked #8 and #4 of the 68 teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament (in contrast, Baylor ranked #25 and #35 in those metrics).  It took a last-second three-point shot by Oregon State to hand the Cougars a point spread defeat in their previous game.  But Houston is 8-0 ATS its last eight, and 28-8 ATS its last 36 off a point spread defeat!  The Cougars are also 13-2 ATS their last 15 as an underdog of less than 7 points, while Baylor is a wallet-busting 10-19 ATS vs. .866 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Finally, Houston gives up just 57.5 points per game, and ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball ratings (in contrast, Baylor ranks 28th).  And the Cougars also prefer to play at a much slower pace than Baylor, as Houston's games average just 134.1 ppg -- much less than the Bears' 148.5 ppg.  That bodes well for the underdog, as in the semi-final round of the NCAA Tourney, teams with defenses that give up 63 or less points have covered 73.6% if they weren't favored by 4+ points!  Moreover, underdogs seeded #5 (or better), that average 134.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 61.9%, including 8-2 ATS in the semi-final round.  We'll take the points with the defensive-minded underdog in this game.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Cleveland.  The Sixers will once again play without center Joel Embiid tonight.  But Cleveland's injury problems are even worse.  We'll lay the points with Philly tonight, as it's playing with double-revenge from two losses to Cleveland earlier this season, including a 112-109 defeat as an 11.5-point favorite in the last meeting.  The good news for Philadelphia in this game is that winning NBA teams are 93-65 ATS when laying more than 6 points against a losing team, if our winning team was playing with double revenge.  Even better:  if our revenger was favored by 8+ points in the previous meeting, then our 93-65 stat zooms to 28-10 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven.  It's true that Cleveland does come into this game off an embarrassing 39-point loss at Utah.  But the Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS their last 11, and 74-125-4 ATS their last 203 off a 17-point (or worse) defeat.  Take Philadelphia minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met on Monday, here in the Alamo City. And the Kings blew out the Spurs, 132-115.  We'll lay the points with the Spurs in this rematch, as the Spurs are 29-12 ATS in the regular season at home, when playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Spurs are 64-27 ATS off a loss by 15+ points, if they weren't an underdog of more than 2 points in their current game, and their opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  And, finally, when the Spurs have played an opponent who the Spurs lost to in their previous game, they've gone 48-24-3 ATS if they were favored (or PK'em) in that next game.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Gonzaga.  This season, I've largely avoided playing on or against Gonzaga.  I only played on them once -- and won when they blew out Norfolk State in the opening round of this Tournament.  And I also only played against them once this season (and lost), as I didn't think there were many teams that had the right mix of players to compete with Gonzaga.  But USC is one of the teams that CAN compete with the Bulldogs.  So, we'll grab the points with the Trojans tonight.  For technical support, consider that, over the last 22 seasons, in the ELITE EIGHT round of the tournament, .700 (or better) teams seeded #4 (or worse) are a perfect 16-0-1 ATS vs. .800 (or better) opponents!  And, even better, USC comes into this game off 3 dominant wins over Drake (72-56), Kansas (85-51) and Oregon (82-68).  And their last two games were quite impressive, as they covered the point spread in each by double digits (Kansas +32.5; Oregon +11.5).  And that leads us to our second angle, which is 20-0-1 ATS, which plays on underdogs off 2 Tourney wins, in which they covered the spread by 28+ points combined, provided their opponent was off an ATS win, but didn't also cover its two previous games by 28+ points combined.  Take USC + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards pulled off an upset, 132-124, last night, as a 7-point home underdog vs. Indiana.  Unfortunately, unrested teams off an upset home win, in which they scored 130+ points, have covered just 28% over the past 31 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Washington tonight.  Nor does the fact that Charlotte blew it out by a 119-97 score when these two Southeast division rivals met last month.  And Washington is a poor 16-36 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat when it wasn't getting 4+ points in the current game.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Baylor.  We played on the 'under' in Arkansas' previous game (a 72-70 win over Oral Roberts), which was our Sweet 16 Total of the Year.  That game easily stayed under the total of 156.5, but Arkansas failed to cover the 11.5-point spread.  Baylor did cover the spread in its win over Villanova, but it took a furious rush in the 2nd half for the Bears to surpass the 7.5-point spread.  Off those two results, we'll take the points with the underdog Razorbacks tonight.  Indeed, in the NCAA tournament, it's been very profitable to back teams off ATS losses in the Tourney, if their opponent wasn't off an ATS defeat in its previous game, provided our team wasn't laying more than 1 points.  Dating back 24 years, this angle has cashed 67.2% of the time.  That bodes well for Arkansas tonight.  As does the fact that #1 seeds, off a double-digit win, and ATS win, have covered just 8 of 31 Elite Eight round games.  Take Arkansas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets won for just the 2nd time over their last 24 games when the upset Minnesota, 129-107, on Saturday.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Houston tonight vs. Memphis, as sub-.300 home underdogs have covered just 28% over the last 31 years off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a division opponent off a SU/ATS road loss.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over UCLA.  Last Monday, we played on each of these two teams, and got the $$$ with UCLA vs. Abilene Christian, and Alabama vs. Maryland.  At the start of this tournament, our projected final four was Baylor, Gonzaga, Alabama and West Virginia (with Baylor defeating Gonzaga in the final).  We now have three teams remaining after WVU was knocked out by Syracuse last weekend.  We'll look for Alabama to continue its strong play on this Sunday, as it comes into this Sweet 16 match-up on an 8-game win streak.  In its last game, it scored 96 points, which rated as the highest amount registered by an NCAA Tourney in the 2nd round over the last 10 seasons.  And NCAA Tourney teams are 96-68-2 ATS as a favorite of -6 (or more) points after scoring 88 or more in their previous game.  That bodes well for the Crimson Tide on Sunday.  As does the fact that teams seeded #11 (or worse) have covered just 3 of 16 Tourney games from the Sweet 16 round forward, if they were priced from +2 to +7.5 points.   Finally, UCLA is a wallet-busting 1-10 ATS its last 11 games in the Sweet 16.  Take Alabama to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Michigan.  Both of these teams come into this game off impressive wins.  Michigan fought off a game LSU team to win, 86-78, as a 4-point favorite, while Florida State blew out Colorado, 71-53, as a 1-point favorite.  The Wolverines are a #1 seed, but they're only favored by a bucket today against the #4-seeded Seminoles.  And this "short line" spells trouble for Juwan Howard's men, as #1 seeds are a poor 32% ATS in the Tourney's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds since 2000, if they weren't favored by more than 4 points, including 2-10 ATS if their opponent won their game by more than 12 points.  Florida State is 4-1-1 ATS its last 6 as an NCAA Tourney underdog.  And, three years ago, as a #9-seed, it gave then-No. 3-seeded Michigan everything it could handle in a 4-point loss in the Elite 8 round.  I look for FSU to pull the upset today.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Sunday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Yesterday we played on both Memphis (over Colorado State) and Mississippi State (over Louisiana Tech), and got the $$$ with each of them to move our mark this NIT season to 3-0-1 (or possibly 4-0).  In this championship game, we'll lay the points with the Tigers, as they fall into two of my better NIT Tourney systems, with records of 58-33, 24-11; and also a general post-season Tourney system which is 161-96-4 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, as I mentioned yesterday, Memphis is (now) 14-2 ATS its last 16 games, and 22-12 its last 34 post-season games.  Meanwhile, Miss State is an awful 7-23 ATS off an upset win, if it wasn't getting more than 5 points in its current game (including 1-11 ATS if it won its previous game by double-digits).  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  These two teams met here in Salt Lake City last night, and the Jazz won, 117-114, as a 10-point home favorite, but failed to cover the spread.  But that game was an outlier for this Memphis team, as it had been 0-12 ATS its previous 12 road games when getting more than 4 points.  I look for a reversion to form tonight, and for Utah to blow out Memphis.  The Jazz are 12-1 ATS at home off back to back wins, and they're also 196-142-7 ATS at home vs. unrested foes when priced from -2 to -15 points.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last night here in the Twin Cities, and Minnesota emerged victorious with a 107-101 victory as a 4.5-point home favorite.  We'll take the Rockets in the rematch, as .400 (or worse) teams have only covered the spread 33% of the time in back to back meetings since 1990, if they won the first meeting.  And Houston's 79-38 ATS as a road underdog off back to back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Take the Rockets.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Mississippi State won a thriller in the semi-final round on Thursday, when it hit a 3-pointer to garner a 68-67 victory against Richmond (though it failed to cover the 4.5-point spread).  Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, knocked out fellow Conference USA member Western Kentucky, 72-65, as a 1-point favorite.  These two teams actually met last season, and Louisiana Tech went into Starkville and upset Miss State, 74-67, as a 7.5-point road dog.  But that sets up our play on this Saturday, as Mississippi State falls into 37-20 and 76-32 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, Mississippi State is an awesome 73-30 ATS when playing with revenge if it is not off a SU/ATS win, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season.  Finally, Miss State falls into 24-5, 9-1, 129-91, 28-7, and 83-55 ATS post-season systems of mine.  Lay the points with Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Colorado State.  These two teams were both given #1 seeds by the NIT Tournament committee.  The Tigers earned their berth into this semi-final round with a 69-66 triumph over Boise State, while Colorado State dispatched North Carolina State with a 4-point upset win, 65-61, as a 2-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Boise, in the post-season, teams seeded #3 (or better) are a soft 100-138 ATS off an upset win, if installed as an underdog of +1.5 (or more) points.  Memphis also is 13-2 ATS its last 15 games, and 21-12 ATS its last 33 post-season games, while Boise is 4-10 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Tigers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Toronto.  The Suns pulled a clunker on Wednesday night, as they were upset by the Magic, 112-111, as a 9.5-point road favorite.  But we'll look for Phoenix to rebound tonight, as it's 12-1 ATS its last 13, and 44-13 ATS its last 57, off an upset road loss, including 8-0 ATS vs. an opponent off an upset win.  With Toronto, indeed, off an upset of Denver in its last game, we'll fade the Raptors tonight.  Take Phoenix minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Clippers led wire-to-wire last night, and blew out San Antonio, 134-101.  Off that blowout defeat, we'll back San Antonio tonight in the rematch.  For technical support, consider that San Antonio is 29-11 ATS its last 40 at home in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Likewise, the Clippers are an awful 15-38 ATS off a SU/ATS win, when favored by 4+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  And, league-wide, NBA home dogs of +6 (or more) points, that lost by 19+ points the previous day at home, have cashed 61.1% over the past 31 seasons.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Brooklyn.  This is a huge revenge game for the Jazz, who suffered their worst loss of this season earlier this year against the Nets.  Brooklyn won that game by 34 points.  But tonight's game is a great set-up for the homestanding Jazz.  Brooklyn had to play Portland last night in a game which went down to the wire.  The Nets did win that game (their second straight), but teams off back-to-back wins are a wallet-busting 31-54 ATS when playing without rest on the road against a rested Jazz team, and not getting more than 10 points.  And rested Northwest division teams, with a .600 (or better) record, are 91-54 ATS in the regular season off a win, if they were playing with revenge.  Take Utah to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Spurs already defeated the Clippers once this season.  And they'll get two more tries at it this week, as this is the first of a 2-game home series vs. ex-Spur Kawhi Leonard's Clippers.  The Spurs come into this game off back to back losses to Milwaukee + Charlotte.  But San Antone is 86-50 ATS at home off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Spurs as a home underdog.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder finished off their four-game road trip with back to back upset wins over the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  But those two teams have a combined record of 22-63.  Memphis, on the other hand, is a .500 ball club.  It's true that OKC recently upset Memphis, 128-122, as a 9.5-point home underdog, on March 14.  But the Grizz are an awesome 27-5 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, when Memphis not getting more than 7 points.   And losing teams are a poor 61-100 ATS as underdogs when playing a revenge-minded team they upset as 9-point (or greater) underdogs in the previous meeting.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Pepperdine.  We succesfully played on the underdog Stetson Hatters not once, but twice, in the first two rounds of this CBI Tournament.  Yesterday's ATS win by Stetson came at the expense of this Coastal Carolina team, though Coastal was able to survive in overtime to win by 5, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And Stetson's ATS success continued a long-term trend in this CBI Tournament which has favored taking the points, as underdogs are now 110-93 ATS, including 55-38 ATS off a point spread defeat.  That bodes well for Coastal Carolina tonight.  As does the fact that Pepperdine is a horrible 34-57-1 ATS as a favorite vs. non-conference foes, while Coastal Carolina is 19-7 ATS as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, if the Chanticleers won their previous game.  Take Coastal Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets won at Orlando lat night, 110-99.  But off that win, we will fade Nikola Jokic & Co. this evening.  Indeed, Denver is a dreadful 3-19 ATS as a road favorite off a win by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, Toronto is 95-62 ATS off back to back losses.  I look for Nick Nurse's men to snap their losing streak tonight.  Take Toronto.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Brooklyn.  We played against Portland on Sunday, and got the $$$ when Dallas blew them out by 40 points, 132-92.  We'll take the Trail Blazers to bounce back on Tuesday, as rested home teams have gone 61% ATS off a blowout home loss by 25+ points, if they were matched up against a winning opponent which won its previous game.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Coastal Carolina.  We played on Stetson yesterday as a huge underdog (opened +9.5, closed +6.5) vs. Bowling Green, and the Hatters won outright, 53-52.  We'll come right back with Stetson today as an underdog vs. Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers are a poor 6-13 ATS as a favorite priced from -6.5 to -20 points, including 1-6 ATS off a win by more than 5 points, and 0-9 ATS if they didn't have a losing record against the spread.  Likewise, favorites of 6+ points have burned money in the CBI Tournament, including 16-35 ATS their last 51.  Finally, Atlantic Sun Conference teams have gone 49-33 in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, including 34-20 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points, and 16-7 ATS if they covered the spread by 6+ points in their previous game.  Grab the points with the Hatters.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Kansas.  Going into this tournament, the Big 10 Conference was the nation's best.  But we're 45 games in, and just Michigan and Maryland remain.  Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue have all been sent packing.  Not surprisingly, the Big 10 has gone a collective 5-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, the Pac-12 conference has been perfect.  And not just on the scoreboard, but also "in Vegas," as the conference from the Left Coast is 7-0 SU/ATS.  UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado and USC have done the Pac-12 proud, although three of the teams are still left to play today.  One is USC, which will take on Big 12-member Kansas tonight (the Big 12 teams will be 5-7 ATS if Oklahoma can't come back on Gonzaga (they're down 17, as of this writing)).  We'll take the Trojans in this game, as they fall into a 69-30 ATS 2nd Round system of mine, which goes against Kansas off its 93-84 win over Eastern Washington.  Additionally, the Jayhawks failed to cover the spread against Eastern Washington, and are just 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes this season (and 0-6 ATS when not favored by 20+ points).  Meanwhile, the Trojans are 5-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when priced from +2 to -13 points.  Take USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Maryland.  The Crimson Tide won the SEC Conference Tournament, and then defeated Iona in the opening round.  They'll now take on the Maryland Terrapins, who upset UConn in its first game.  Unfortunately for the Terrapins, underdogs off upset wins in the first round of the Tournament, priced from +4.5 to +10 points, have covered just 13 of 41 vs. foes that won their conference tournament.   Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over LSU.  The #1-seeded Wolverines enter this game on their first 2-game point spread losing streak of the season.  I like Michigan to bounce back tonight, as #1 seeds off back to back ATS losses have gone 30-3 SU and 22-10-1 ATS.  And Michigan is 8-1 ATS its last 9, and 18-6 ATS its last 24 post-season games off a point spread defeat.  Lay the points with the Wolverines.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats shocked the defending National Champion Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, as they won 62-58, as a 7-point underdog.  And that was Ohio's 4th straight win and cover.  But off that big upset win, we will fade the #13 seed this evening.  Indeed, teams seeded 12th (or worse) have covered just 20% in the 2nd Round of the Tournament when installed as an underdog of 7 or less points, if they were off 2 SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was not.  And Mid-American Conference teams off a SU/ATS win are a soft 9-19 ATS in the Tourneys against non-conference foes not off an ATS win.  Finally, Creighton has covered 86% over the last 31 seasons off back to back ATS losses, if its opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Bluejays today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Bruins drew a short straw and was forced to play a "First Four" game in order to qualify for the first round of the tournament.  The Bruins won that game against Michigan State, and then used it as a springboard to upset BYU on Thursday.  I won't step in front of the Bruins today, as teams seeded 5th (or worse) off a Tourney win, have gone 16-0-1 ATS when favored by more than 4 points against a .715 (or better) foe.  Take UCLA.

At 11:30 am, on Monday, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons find themselves installed as a big favorite in this game, even though it comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Miami and Akron.  Unfortunately, Bowling Green has been dreadful when laying points, as its 9-27-3 ATS its last 39, including 0-15-3 ATS off a point spread loss.  We'll grab the points with Stetson, as it also falls into a 33-7 ATS Tourney system of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Dallas lost by 6 points here to the Blazers on Friday.  But the Mavs are 100-50 ATS off a road loss, when playing a non-division foe off a win.  Take Dallas to avenge that defeat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers won their fourth straight game as an underdog when they stunned Tennessee, 70-56, on Friday.  Unfortunately, teams off 4+ upset wins have covered just 33% in the NCAA Tournament over the last 31 years, including just 11% in the Tourney's first two rounds.  Moreover, the Beavers are a poor 7-20-1 ATS off 4+ wins.  Take the Cowboys on Sunday night.  Good luck, always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over North Texas.  The #13-seeded Mean Green shocked Purdue, in Overtime, on Friday, while Villanova sent Winthrop packing with a 73-63 win.  That was Winthrop's second straight win, which doesn't bode well for it today, as NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the tourney's 2nd round off back to back upset wins.  Take the Wildcats minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Oral Roberts.  The Eagles advanced to this round with a huge upset win, in overtime, against Ohio State, as a #15 seed.  But #15 seeds have not fared well in the Tournament when they were getting 16 or less points, as they've covered just nine of 29.  Even worse for ORU tonight is the fact that underdogs, seeded #12 or worse, are a horrid 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS off an overtime victory in the NCAA Tournament.  Lay the points with Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland.  Toronto finally is getting its full team back on the hardwood.  So, it will have to quickly get back into the win column, if it is to make a run at the post season.  Tonight, it will attempt to snap its 7-game losing streak, and we'll lay the points, as Cleveland is a poor 6-18 ATS off a point spread loss.  Meanwhile, NBA favorites of more than 6 points, have cashed 62% off 6+ losses over the past 31 years.  Take Toronto.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Washington.  The Nets lost a rare ballgame on Friday, as they fell to Orlando, 121-113, as an 11-point road favorite.  But off that loss, we'll lay the points with Brooklyn tonight, as home teams have cashed 79.1% over the last 31 years off an outright loss as a road favorite of more than 10 points, if their opponent was off a win.  With the Wizards, indeed, off a win over Utah, we'll take Brooklyn to blowout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Houston.  The Cougars have won their last two games by 37 and 31 points, which has caused this line -- according to my numbers -- to be a tad inflated.  And we'll take advantage, as NCAA Tourney teams have gone 0-10 ATS in the 2nd round if they won their two previous games by 50+ points, combined.  Even better:  Rutgers has cashed 68.1% over the last 30 years when getting 5+ points against a non-conference foe off an ATS win.  And Big 10 teams have cashed 60.8% in the Tourney against non-conference foes when getting 8+ points.  Finally, AAC Conference teams have covered just 28% as favorites vs. non-conference foes in the post-season.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Arkansas.  The #6-seeded Red Raiders are favored today vs. the #3-seeded Razorbacks.  And, over the last 31 years, when a team seeded #4 (or better) has been an underdog in the Tourney's 2nd round, it's cashed just 18% of the time.  Likewise, when a team seeded #5 (or worse) has been favored in the 2nd round, it's gone 41-15-2 ATS.  Finally, Arkansas is a wallet-busting 117-180 ATS away from home when not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Syracuse.  We played on WVU on Friday, and got the $$$ when they covered against Morehead State.  And that moved WVU's record in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys to 35-16-2 ATS its last 53, including 22-9 ATS in the NCAA.  We'll come right back with the Mountaineers on this Sunday, as they fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 131-64 ATS since 1990.  Lay the points.

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Wisconsin.  The Bears have seemingly hit the skids, as they've covered just one of their last eight games (and 0-3 ATS their last three).  But the Bears are 34-17 ATS off back to back ATS losses.  And #1-seeded teams have cashed 63% in the NCAA Tourney's 2nd round, if they were off back-to-back ATS losses.  Take Baylor.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana.  The Heat were blown out here, at home, by Indiana, 137-110, on Friday.  We'll take the Heat in this rematch, as winning NBA teams, playing with revenge against an opponent which upset it in the previous game by 25+ points, have gone 67% ATS since 1990.  Take Miami.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Wildcats defeated Nicholls St., 79-45, to win the Southland Conference championship.  And that was Abilene's third straight win by more than 21 points.  But Southland teams are a horrid 0-16 SU and 4-11-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +25 points in the NCAA Tourney.  Meanwhile, Texas is 36-1 SU and 26-11 ATS when favored by more than 7 points against a non-conference foe off a win.  Finally, NCAA underdogs (or PK) off three straight wins by more than 15 points are a poor 31% ATS over the last 31 post-seasons.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Norfolk State.  We played on the Spartans on Thursday, and got the $$$ when it upset Appalachian State.  That was the Spartan's 7th straight win, overall.  But they will be overwhelmed tonight by a Gonzaga offense which ranks #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season.  Gonzaga's 19-6 ATS when laying more than 25 points, if it wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  And when matched up against #1-seeded teams, .695 (or worse) clubs are a soft 14-29 ATS, if they were off an upset NCAA Tourney win.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over San Antonio.  The Bucks have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 11.  Tonight, they'll welcome San Antonio to Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks are 15-5 this season.  San Antonio had to play last night and, although it won, it is a poor 4-9 ATS on the road if it won the previous night.  The Spurs have also covered just 30.4% since 1990 when getting 2+ points at a rested Eastern Conference opponent, if the Spurs were playing without rest.  Take Milwaukee to blow out San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings won on the road last night, when they upset the Boston Bruins.  That was also the Kings' 2nd straight upset win.  We'll go against them tonight, as they're playing without rest, while Philly had the last two nights off.  And unrested teams off back to back upset road wins have covered just 32% since 1991 vs. foes that had the previous two nights off.  Take Philly.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Golden State.  If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.  That will be the attitude of Memphis tonight, as it gets a second chance to defeat Golden State.  Last night, the Warriors won their second straight, when they upset Memphis by 13 points, even though Steph Curry was sidelined.  He will once again be in street clothes, but after losing last night, you can rest assured Memphis won't take the Warriors lightly.  The Warriors are a poor 1-10 ATS their last 11, and 8-24-1 ATS their last 33, off back-to-back wins.  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats won the Mid-American Conference tourney with an 84-69 upset of Buffalo, while Virginia was knocked out of the ACC Tournament by COVID-19.  Prior to losing its bout with the COVID-19 protocols, Virginia won, but failed to cover, in a 72-69 win against Syracuse.  The good news for the Cavaliers is that they'll get an opportunity to defend their 2019 championship.  And we'll lay the points with Virginia tonight, as it's 28-12 ATS off an ATS loss in its previous game.  Take Virginia.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over UConn.  Both of these teams lost in their respective tournaments.  Maryland fell to #1-seeded Michigan by 13 points, while UConn lost by 3 to Creighton.  The line on this game opened at UConn -2/Maryland +2, but has ticked higher -- and enough so that we will step in and take the points with the Terrapins.  It's true that Maryland was just 10-12 in Big 10 play this season.  But it played in (by far) the best conference in the country, so we will take its losing Big 10 record with a boulder of salt.  Based on my numbers, I believe Maryland is undervalued.  Also, one of the last things you want to do is give a Big 10 Conference team points in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.  Indeed, Big 10 teams are 17-6-1 ATS when getting +2 (or more) points in Round 1.  But that's not the best part.  If our Big 10 team was blown out by double-digits in its previous game, then our 17-6 record zooms to 9-0-1 ATS.  Finally, in match-ups between Big East and Big 10 Conference teams in the NCAA Tournament, underdogs of less than 6 points have gone 20-10 ATS.  Grab the points with Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:25 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Grand Canyon.  The Hawkeyes were 21-8 SU and 15-13 ATS this season.  But it played a rugged schedule, which included games against #1-seeded Gonzaga, #1-seeded Michigan, #1-seeded Illinois (two games), and #2-seeded Ohio State (two games).  Against that 'murderer's row,' Iowa was 1-5 SU/ATS.  Against the rest of its schedule, the Hawkeyes were 20-3 SU and 14-8 ATS.  The good news for Iowa today is that nobody would mistake the Antelopes for a #1 or #2-seeded team.  Iowa has been installed as a double-digit favorite, which bodes well for it this evening, as Iowa was 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in games it was laying more than 10 points.  And, even better, it's 29-10-1 ATS when laying double-digits vs. non-conference foes, and 9-1 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off a win.  The Hawkeyes also fall into several of my favorite systems, including one with a 118-70 ATS record (which was 3-1 yesterday), and another with a 151-65 ATS record (which was 1-0 yesterday).  Lay the points with Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Iona.  Our picks for this year's Final Four are Baylor, Gonzaga, West Virginia and this Crimson Tide team.  Of all the 68 teams that qualified for this NCAA Tournament, the Crimson Tide have the nation's best defense, per Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency numbers, as they give up just 86.9 points per 100 possessions.  Defensive efficiency has long been one of my favorite basketball metrics.  So, it's noteworthy that, of the other 13 teams that rank among the Top 15 in this category, that played yesterday, such defensive juggernauts went 5-1 ATS (provided they didn't play another team ranked in the Top 15).  This is a huge step-up in class for Iona, which has been installed as a double-digit underdog for just the 2nd time this season.  In its other game as a double-digit dog, it was blown out by 22 by Seton Hall.  Alabama is 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when laying double digits, while Iona is 0-16 SU and 5-11 ATS when getting double-digits, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Even worse for Iona:  Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference champs have gone 2-13 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when priced from +7 to +21 points.  Finally, the Gaels fall into a negative Tourney system of mine which is 61-160 ATS since 1990.  Take the Crimson Tide minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara.  The Gauchos won the Big West tournament last week, and have earned a 12 seed in this NCAA Tourney.  But Big West teams have under-performed in the NCAA Tournament, including 4-13 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than four points.  Creighton was seeded fifth by the committee, and probably hoped to get a Top 4 seed.  But that likely went out the window last weekend.  To say the Bluejays had a bad game last Saturday would be a massive understatement.  Creighton was favored by eight points in the Big East title game vs. Georgetown, yet lost by 25 points, 73-48.  In that game, the normally reliable Bluejays' offense (77.0 ppg; 47.6% FG) converted just 28.8% of its shots.  Meanwhile, Georgetown canned 46.6%.  And that game was a complete reversal of the previous meeting between the two teams (won by Creighton, 63-48) where the Bluejays hit 44.1%, while Georgetown only made 27.6%.  I love Creighton to bounce back on Saturday afternoon, as teams off blowout losses by more than 17 points have covered 68% in the NCAA Tournament since 1991 if they were seeded among the Top 2 in their conference tourney.  And if they're matched up against a .700 (or better) foe in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tourney, then our angle zooms to 78% ATS over the last 30 years.  Creighton is an awesome 32-13 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 15-3 ATS its last 18 off a 15-point (or worse) defeat.  Lay the points with the Bluejays.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Texas Southern.  The Tigers earned this date with Michigan by defeating Mount St. Mary's in a 'play-in' game on Thursday.  That moved their record to 17-8 SU and 13-10 ATS.  Unfortunately, #16-seeded teams, with good W/L percentages above .630, have been awful in the tournament when getting 21+ points, as they've gone 7-23 ATS.  Michigan rolled to a 20-4 record this season.  And three of its four losses were to a revenge-minded opponent it defeated earlier in the year.  But the Tigers won't have the benefit of previous game experience or motivation from revenge this afternoon.  On the other hand, Michigan lost its previous game to the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the Wolves typically bounce back strong off losses, as they're 84-47-2 ATS off a loss, including 10-0-1 ATS their last 11, and 16-1-1 ATS their last 18 when laying 5+ points.  Lay the points with Juwan Howard's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 Tourney with a 74-65 victory over VCU, while LSU fell one point short in the SEC Championship game against Alabama.  Unfortunately for St. Bonaventure, it has not fared well against non-conference foes off a loss, and especially not when priced from +7 to -15 points, as it's covered just 18 of 56 (and 0-9 ATS if its foe was off an upset loss).  Take LSU minus the points.

At 12:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over NC Greensboro.  Florida State lost in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech, 80-75, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that upset loss, I love FSU to rebound this afternoon against the Spartans.  Indeed, ACC Conference favorites of 8+ points have gone 36-9 ATS against .714 (or better) opponents, if our ACC team was off an upset loss, and failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Seminoles.

At 12:15 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Georgetown.  The Hoyas surprised many with their run to the Big East title last weekend.  Among Georgetown's victims were Villanova and Creighton, who both made this NCAA Tournament.  But off its string of four straight upset wins, we will fade the Hoyas this afternoon, as teams off 4 straight upset wins have covered 0 of their last 7, and just four of their last 19 games.  And in the last 31 years of this NCAA Tournament, teams off upset wins in their previous four games have covered just 35.7%.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here last night, and the Suns blew a 15-point, 3rd quarter lead to lose, 123-119.  We'll take Phoenix in the rematch, as NBA teams have gone 27-9 ATS when playing the 2nd of back-to-back games against a foe which upset it as a 9.5-point (or bigger) underdog, provided that foe's W/L percentage was .600 (or less).  Additionally, the Suns are 11-3 ATS off a loss, while the Timberwolves are 0-23 SU and 6-17 ATS as an unrested underdog off an upset win.  Take the Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Winthrop.  The Wildcats will look to bounce back from their upset loss to Georgetown, as a 6-point favorite last week.  Here, they'll battle Winthrop, the Big South Conference champion.  Just two points separated the Eagles from an undefeated season, as their only loss was against NC-Asheville, on Jan. 29.  The Bulldogs won that game, 57-55, as a 12.5-point underdog.  Today, the 23-1 Eagles have been installed as a mid-sized underdog vs. Villanova.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with a team which hasn't lost by 3+ points all season, especially given that Winthrop was 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog (and 13-11 ATS, overall).  But be careful.  In fact, NCAA teams with a win percentage > .883 are a soft 35.7% ATS in the Tourney when installed as an underdog, including 0-6-1 ATS over the last three Tourneys.  Even worse:  Villanova is a spectacular 44-14-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 4+ points in its previous game, if it was matched up against a foe with an ATS win percentage greater than 45.5% (and 17-0-1 ATS if priced from -6.5 to -12 points).  Take the Wildcats to blow out Winthrop.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Morehead State.  So, a quick trivia question:  name the team which came the closest to defeating 26-0 Gonzaga this season.  Answer:  West Virginia.  Indeed, the Mountaineers are the ONLY team which Gonzaga didn't beat by 10+ points this season, as the score in the game was 87-82.  Likewise, the Mountaineers only lost to the 2nd best team, Baylor, by five points, 94-89.  So, this is a team which has the talent to win against ANY team in the country.  And WVU is one of my picks to make the Final Four (along with Gonzaga, Baylor and Alabama).  It's true that WVU was upset by Oklahoma State not once, but twice, to end its season.  But NCAA Tourney teams favored by 7+ points are 90% ATS the past 15 years off back to back losses.  We'll lay the points in this NCAA Tourney opener, as the Mountaineers are also 34-16-2 in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys, including 21-9 ATS in the NCAA.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over North Texas.  The Boilers had won and covered five straight before falling, 87-78, to Ohio State in the Big 10 Tourney.  But I love them to bounce back from that 9-point loss today, as they generally do just that under coach Matt Painter.  Indeed, dating back to his first season as head coach, Purdue is an awesome 60-23 ATS off a SU/ATS loss by 7+ points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season!  Take Purdue minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings + the points over Houston.  We played on the Cougars last Sunday against Cincinnati, and it was over early, as Houston coasted to a 91-54 victory, as a 13.5-point favorite.  Unfortunately for the Cougars, teams generally have letdowns after such dominant wins in their Conference Championship game.  Indeed, favorites (or PK) have gone 8-22 ATS in the NCAA tourney after a SU/ATS win by 15+ points in their conference title game, including 0-6 ATS when priced from -15.5 to -21.5 points.  Take Cleveland State + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Hartford.  In the last NCAA Tournament, our selection in the preseason was Virginia (at 22-1 odds) to win the National Title (and it did).  This year, our preseason pick was on Baylor (at 12-1 odds).  So, it's probably not a surprise that we will play on the Bears minus the points over the Hawks to open this tournament.  Baylor has been dominant against non-conference foes, going 54-11 straight-up, and 29-15 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced as a big favorite of -19 to -43.5 points.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams are 23-7 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when laying 21+ points against foes with a won/loss percentage greater than .625.  Take Baylor.

At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders made it all the way to the last NCAA Tournament championship game, but lost to Virginia in overtime.  This year's Texas Tech team won't be getting Elite Eight, much less the title game, as it's underwhelmed the entire season.  Indeed, if you toss out all its games against teams from the Southland Conference, SWAC, Sun Belt, etc., and only look at Texas Tech's record against foes from the larger conferences, its record was just 10-10 this season.  Even worse:  it was 6-14 ATS in those 20 games, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread at least 42% of the time (Utah State has covered 59.2% this season).  Finally, the clincher is that Texas Tech is an awful 63-107-2 ATS away from home off a loss, including 6-17 ATS when favored by 4 or more points.  Take the Aggies as the underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.