Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Kansas State.  The Horned Frogs blew out BYU, 44-11, last week, as a 4.5-point favorite, for their best win of the season.  Now, they'll take on Kansas State, and the Frogs have had this game circled on their calendar for months.  When these two teams last met, Kansas State handed the Horned Frogs their first loss of the season when the Wildcats won, 31-28, in overtime, in the Big 12 Title game.  When playing with revenge, TCU is a solid 31-20 ATS as a road underdog, as well as 13-4 ATS off a win by more than 30 points.  Grab the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Colorado State.  The Rebels are on a roll, as they've covered the spread in every game this season.  And outside of their road game against #2-ranked Michigan, they've scored 40+ points in every game this season.  That bodes well for UNLV, as home teams have covered 56.2% since 1980, if they were off 3 blowout wins by 17+ points, in which they scored 40+, and covered by 10+ points.  The Rebels should have no problem scoring on Colorado State, which ranks 127th of 130 teams in Total defense, giving up 462.7 yards per game.  Colorado State has also given up 40+ points in three of its five FBS games this season, and are also a poor 3-8 ATS on the road off a win.  Take UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Spartans minus the points over Utah State.  The Aggies had their 2-game win streak snapped by Fresno St last week, and are now 3-4 on the season.  Today, they'll travel to San Jose, and face a Spartans team looking for its first win in the series since 2008.  San Jose should, however, be confident, as it comes into this game off its first FBS win this season.  And it was impressive, as it went into New Mexico, and blew out the Lobos, 52-24, as a 6-point road favorite.  That bodes well for San Jose tonight, as single-digit home favorites have covered 58% of conference games off a road conference blowout by 28+ points, provided they covered the spread in that blowout by 21+ points.  Even better:  the Aggies are a soft 2-16 SU and 7-11 ATS when installed as a road underdog vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, the Spartans are 21-3 SU and 17-6 ATS as a favorite off a straight-up win, if they are playing an opponent off a loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  Both of these teams enter on 6-game win streaks, and this game could be a preview of the MAC Title game in December.  We played (and won) on Miami-Ohio three times this season, including each of the past 2 weeks.  But will switch gears this Saturday, and go against the RedHawks.  Last week, Toledo escaped Muncie, Indiana with a 13-6 victory over Ball State.  The good news for Toledo is that MAC Conference road favorites have gone 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS in conference games after scoring less than 14 points.  Take Toledo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Illinois.  The Illini have been installed as a short home underdog.  Unfortunately, they're 17-53-3 ATS at home when priced from +3 to -12.5 points.  And they're 20-52-1 ATS at home when playing an opponent off a straight-up loss.  With Wisconsin in off a 15-6 defeat at the hands of Iowa, we'll lay the points with the Badgers.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Tennessee.  The Volunteers upset Nick Saban's men last season in a thriller, 52-49, as a 9-point home underdog.  But we'll lay the points with 'Bama on Saturday, as Nick Saban's teams have gone 27-11 ATS in conference games when playing with revenge from a loss suffered when he was head coach.  Additionally, Alabama is 45-25 ATS following a win, in which it lost against the spread.  With Alabama in off a 24-21 victory as a 19-point favorite vs. Arkansas, we'll take the Crimson Tide on Saturday afternoon.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen + the points over Air Force.  The Midshipmen shut out Charlotte, 14-0, on the road in their last game.  And NCAA teams off road shutout wins the previous week have gone 177-120 ATS in the regular season, including 53-30-2 ATS as an underdog.  Navy has also covered 16 of the last 21 times it was an underdog vs. Air Force.  We'll go with the underdog Midshipmen.  Take Navy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Arkansas.  The Razorbacks have lost their last five games, and now return home to take on Mississippi State, which won, 41-28, over Western Michigan in its last game (but failed to cover the 21.5-point spread).  We'll go against Arkansas, as SEC Conference favorites of -20 points or less (or PK) are a dreary 188-270-3 ATS (41 percent) at home off a straight-up loss.  Even worse:  if their opponent failed to cover the spread by more than a touchdown in its previous game, then our 270-188 stat zooms to 94-51-1 ATS (65 percent).  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Georgia Tech.  BC upset Army, 27-24, as a 2.5-point road underdog in its last game, while Georgia Tech shocked Miami, 23-20, as a 19-point dog.  The Eagles are 25-14 ATS their last 39 as an underdog vs. ACC Conference foes.  Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is now 9-2 its last 11 as an underdog, but 0-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite vs. FBS (Division 1) schools.  Take Boston College + the points.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars blew out Indianapolis last week for their 3rd straight win and cover, while the Saints were upset at Houston, 20-13.  We'll play against Jacksonville on Thursday, as road teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are an awful 16-37 ATS vs. foes that were upset on the road the previous week.  Additionally, the Saints are a super 67-34 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes come into this game with an undefeated 6-0 record, but I like Marshall to hand them their first defeat of the season.  Marshall will be looking to redeem itself after two road losses at NC State (48-41) and Georgia St (41-24).  And the Herd are 12-3-1 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss when not favored by more than 3 points.  Even better:  Sun Belt conference underdogs (or PK) are a solid 87-59 ATS in conference games off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And undefeated teams, off back to back ATS wins, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have covered just 14% as home favorites of less than 25 points vs. conference foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane come into this American Athletic Conference game off a loss, 20-17, at Florida Atlantic.  Unfortunately, they're a horrid 9-43-2 ATS at home off a loss, when matched up against a non-winning team, and not favored by 17+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Tulsa.  Nor does the fact that Rice is also off a SU/ATS loss, 38-31, vs. UConn.  And the Owls are 62-45 ATS in conference games off a SU/ATS conference defeat.  Take Rice + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills come into this game off a loss last Sunday in London.  I will fade Buffalo, as NFL teams have gone 4-18 ATS in the United States following a game in London.  Moreover, the Giants have lost all five games ATS this season.  However, underdogs off 5 ATS losses have covered 64.8%, including 12-3 ATS when getting more than 11 points.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Detroit.  The Lions come into this Sunday's game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  But they will have to play a rested Tampa Bay team coming off its bye week.  We'll grab the points with Tampa, as Detroit is an ugly 3-26 ATS off a home win, if it owned a win percentage of .692 (or better), including 0-13 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take Tampa Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  New England was shut out, 34-0, last week by New Orleans.  And that was the 4th time the Patriots have been shut out under coach Bill Belichick.  How did New England do after those three previous shutout defeats?  They went 3-0 SU/ATS, and scored 31, 40 and 33 points.  This week, they'll play a Raiders team off a SU/ATS win last Monday vs. Green Bay.  We'll grab the points with the Patriots, as they've gone 22-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  And Las Vegas is 29-68-1 ATS as a favorite vs. a foe off a loss.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  The Bears blew out Washington by 20 points for their first win of the season, while Minnesota also has just 1 victory, which was an 8 point win at Carolina two weeks ago.  The Vikings have been saddled with a difficult opening schedule, as their four losses have all been to teams that made the playoffs last season, including Philadelphia and Kansas City, the two Super Bowl participants.  But now, the Vikings will play the Bears who, like Carolina, is one of the worst teams in the league.  Minnesota is 15-9-1 its last 25 as road favorites, while Chicago is 1-13 SU and 3-10 ATS as home underdogs.  And NFC North division teams off a loss are 68-43 ATS vs. division rivals off a win.   Lay the points with the Vikings.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Panthers are 0-5 straight-up, and 1-4-1 ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS in their last 3 games.  I look for Carolina to break through with its first ATS win this season, as underdogs of more than 5 points have gone 121-79 ATS in non-division games off 3 SU/ATS losses.  Take the Panthers + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Seattle.  The Bengals got off the schneid last week when they blew out Arizona, 34-20, for their first point spread win of the season.  They'll now host the Seahawks, who had last week off following a 24-3 annihilation of the New York Giants.  The Bengals are still undervalued, in my estimation, and I'll lay the short number.  Cincinnati is a powerful 17-0-1 ATS when not laying 7 or more points, if its foe had a Win Percentage between .400 and .823.  And Seattle is 17-32 ATS off a win by more than 20 points.  Take the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over San Francisco.  It's unclear if Deshaun Watson will return from his rotator cuff injury this week.  If he can't go, then PJ Walker will start for Cleveland.  I'll take the points with the Browns, as I look for them to bounce back strong off their bye week.  Indeed, home underdogs of more than 5 points off their Bye week have gone 33-12 ATS vs. unrested foes.  And NFL home dogs (or PK) off blowout losses by more than 2 TDs have covered 61.8% vs. foes off blowout wins by more than 2 TDs.  Grab the points with Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Duke.  The Blue Devils come into this game off a SU/ATS home loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago.  That lowered Duke's record to 4-1 on the season.  And it's also undefeated in ACC Conference play.  We'll play against Duke on Saturday night, as ACC teams off a loss have not fared well as favorites vs. Conference foes that have a worse conference record, as well as a worse record, overall.  Even worse:  Duke has covered just 16 of 50 as a favorite off a straight-up loss.  Take NC State + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over UAB.  The Blazers blew out South Florida, 56-35, as a 3.5-point home underdog last Saturday.  Unfortunately, UAB is a miserable 0-7 ATS off a win, and 20-40 ATS after scoring 34+ points.  Take Texas-San Antonio minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Kansas State. We played on the Red Raiders last week, and they rewarded us with a blowout win, 39-14, at Baylor.  That triumph moved Texas Tech's record to 3-3, and it was the Red Raiders' second straight win by more than 20 points.  We'll take Texas Tech to continue its win streak on Saturday, as it's a powerful 38-11-2 ATS at home when it didn't own a winning record.  Lay the opoints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons minus the points over Wyoming.  This is a big revenge game for Air Force, which lost, 17-14, at Wyoming last season as a 16.5-point favorite.  Last Saturday, the Cowboys pulled off a big upset last week when they defeated the then-unbeaten Fresno State Bulldogs, 24-19.  Unfortunately, teams off upset wins over undefeated foes have burned money in their following game, and especially on the road against revenge-minded foes.  We'll lay the points with Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd over Georgia State.  The Panthers were upset, 28-7, here at home by Troy in their previous game.  We'll grab the points with Marshall, as it's cashed 67% as an underdog (or PK) vs. foes off a loss, while the Panthers have covered just 13 of 32 at home off a SU loss.  Take Marshall.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Arizona.  The Wildcats lost in Overtime last week, 43-41, to #10-ranked Southern Cal.  They now have to dust themselves off that difficult loss, and travel to Pullman to play the #19-ranked Cougars.  I generally don't like playing on teams off such heartbreaking losses, and I won't make an exception here.  And especially given how poorly the Wildcats have played off an ATS win away from home vs. winning foes when the Wildcats were an underdog of less than 20 points.  Since 2009, they're 0-16 ATS.  Finally, Washington State is a perfect 9-0 ATS at home off a loss when not getting more than 2 points.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Louisville.  We had a huge play on the Cardinals last week, and were rewarded with an upset victory over Notre Dame, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade the Cards as a favorite vs. Pitt.  Since 1980, teams off upset wins over Notre Dame have gone 20-37-3 ATS, including 6-21-1 ATS when favored by less than 17 points (or PK).  And the Cardinals are a wallet-busting 5-24-1 ATS away from home off back to back wins, if they were matched up against a foe not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Pittsburgh + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon.  Both of these teams come into this huge Pac-12 Conference game with 5-0 records.  And the Ducks are also 5-0 ATS, to boot.  We'll go against Oregon, as Pac-12 road underdogs, with a 2-0 (or better) record inside the conference, have covered just 32.3% since 1980 vs. Pac-12 foes with a winning conference record.  The Huskies are an awesome 25-10 ATS when priced from -2 to -8.5 points.  And Washington also falls into 72-26 and 60-23 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams with win percentages > .750.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Western Michigan.  We played on the RedHawks last week at home vs. Bowling Green, and Miami shut out the Falcons, 27-0.  That was Miami's 5th straight win and cover, and 2nd straight game where it kept its opponent out of the end zone.  Today, Miami will travel to Kalamazoo to take on the Broncos.  And Miami will be looking to snap an 8-game losing streak in the series.  I like the RedHawks to blow out Western Michigan, as the Broncos are a brutal 6-22-3 ATS as a home underdog, including 0-5 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes, and 0-12-1 ATS vs. foes off wins by 20+ points.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks pulled off an upset last week, at home, vs. Central Florida.  Kansas was a 2-point underdog vs. the Knights, and won, 51-22.  The Jayhawks are favored here, in Stillwater, vs. the 3-2 Cowboys.  And we'll fade Kansas, as it's a wallet-busting 32-65-2 ATS on the road vs. foes that don't have a losing record.  Grab the points with Oklahoma St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have, for a long time, under-performed away from College Station.  And especially when matched up against the better teams.  Since 1980, the Aggies are an awful 27-67 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .636 (or better) foes.  That doesn't bode well for Jimbo Fisher's men.  Nor does the fact that the Volunteers had last week off to rest and prepare for this big SEC game, given that A&M is just 5-20 ATS on the road vs. rested foes, including 0-11 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs had won 14 straight games (dating back to last season) before last week's upset road loss at the hands of the Wyoming Cowboys.  Fresno will try to avoid losing for the 2nd straight week, but I don't think it will succeed.  The Bulldogs' starting QB, Mikey Keene, sustained an injury in last week's game, and will likely give way to backup Logan Fife for this game.  Keene has been brilliant this season, as he's thrown for 1,692 yards and 15 TDs, with just four interceptions.  Fife was 7-for-11 vs. Wyoming, but threw a costly interception late in the game.  And he's had a high turnover rate, as last season, he was 84-for-120 with 2 TDs but 6 Interceptions.  Take Utah State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Tulane.  The Tigers and Green Wave are both 4-1 on the season.  Each won its previous game two weeks ago, as Tulane downed UAB, 35-23, while Memphis bested Boise St., 35-32.  Memphis has been installed as a home underdog, and the Tigers fall into 80-37 and 79-27 ATS systems of mine that play on certain rested teams at home.  Additionally, Tulane has covered just 20% of its conference road games vs. rested foes over the past 44 seasons.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Broncos are off to a 1-4 SU/0-4-1 ATS start, after last week's upset loss against the Jets, while KC is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS following a 27-20 victory vs. Minnesota.  We'll grab the points with the Broncos, as AFC West division teams with a losing record, have gone 144-84-7 ATS in division road games if they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  Even better:  Kansas City is 10-20-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite vs. losing teams.  And NFL teams off upset losses have cashed 63.1 percent since 1980 in Thursday games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers pulled off a major upset in their previous game, when they won outright, 24-21, as a 13-point road underdog at TCU.  But off that huge win, we'll fade WVU tonight, as road favorites with a winning record have cashed just 31% over the last 44 seasons following an upset road win as a double-digit dog, if their current opponent was off a straight-up loss.  With Houston in off a 49-28 loss at Texas Tech, we'll grab the points with the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Houston.  I played on the Houston Texans each of the last two weeks, and was rewarded with upset wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.  But I can't get behind Houston off those back to back upset wins.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL road underdogs off back to back upset wins have cashed just 37 percent vs. non-division foes off back to back losses.  I'll lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans upset the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-3, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, I'll fade Mike Vrabel's men on the division road, as division road underdogs have covered just 41% since 1980 off a double-digit upset home win, including just 33% vs. foes off a home loss.  And the Colts are, indeed off a home loss.  Even better:  Indy is 53-30 ATS off a straight-up defeat.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection in on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens/Steelers rivalry is among the best in the NFL.  And one of the things I love to do in this series is take the underdog if it owns the worse Won/Loss record.  Since 2010, the underdog in this situation has gone 12-0-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Pittsburgh as a home underdog.  As does that the fact that home dogs have cashed 61% off a loss by 15 or more points, if matched up against a division foe off a 15-point (or greater) win.  With the Steelers off a 30-6 blowout loss, and Baltimore off a 28-3 win, we’ll grab the points with Mike Tomlin’s men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Both of these teams come into this game off blowout losses:  New York fell, 24-3, on Monday night, at home, vs. Seattle, while Miami lost, 48-20, at Buffalo.  The difference, of course, is that Miami had covered the point spread in its first three games, while the Giants have yet to cover the spread this season.  The good news for New York is that NFL underdogs on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 58% of non-division games since 1980.  Additionally, the Dolphins are 9-24 ATS when favored by 9+ points, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes not off an ATS win, while the Giants are 27-14 ATS when getting 9 or more.  We'll grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona.  The Wildcats almost pulled off a big upset last week, but they lost by 7 vs. Washington, as a 19-point home underdog.  We'll fade the Wildcats as they're a wallet-breaking 0-17 ATS away from home vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Arizona was not favored by 6 (or more) points, and off an ATS win.  Take USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders over Baylor.  The Bears pulled off a huge upset last Saturday at Central Florida, when they knocked off the Knights, 36-35, as an 8-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, Baylor is a brutal 0-8 ATS at home off an upset win.  Take the Red Raiders.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs were upset last week, 24-21, at home as a 13-point favorite.  And now, they've been installed as a road favorite vs. the Cyclones.  I don't like backing road favorites (like TCU) off big upset losses and will fade the Frogs tonight, in Ames.  The Cyclones check in off a 30-point loss at Oklahoma, and also play this game with revenge from a 48-point loss at TCU last season.  That was Iowa State's biggest loss in 8 seasons, and Big 12 Conference home underdogs have cashed 69% since 1991, if they were playing with revenge from a 47-point (or worse) defeat.  Grab the points with the Cyclones.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Notre Dame.  This is the 3rd straight week that the Irish will be playing an undefeated team, and they've been installed as a road favorite vs. the 6-0 Cardinals.  Last week, the Irish were exceptionally fortunate to escape with a victory against Duke.  But I don't think they will leave Louisville with a 'W' on Saturday night.  Notre Dame has covered just 36% as a road favorite vs. undefeated teams dating back to 1980.  And the Cardinals are an awesome 9-0 ATS as a regular season underdog vs. .800 (or better) non-conference foes.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels minus the points over Arkansas.  Last year, Ole Miss lost at Arkansas, 42-27.  We'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Rebels, as Arkansas is an awful 0-9 ATS when priced from +10 to +13.5 points vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Take Mississippi.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky.  The Bulldogs will welcome the 5-0 Wildcats to Athens on Saturday evening.  Georgia's won the last 13 games in this series, and is 12-8-1 ATS at home vs. Kentucky, including 7-1 ATS if the Bulldogs entered the game off a point spread defeat.  Last week, the Bulldogs failed to cover against Auburn.  But I love them to bounce back in a big way here, at home, as Georgia is 28-15-1 ATS at home off an ATS loss when priced from -10 to -28 points.  And undefeated SEC Conference teams have cashed 61% in conference games as a favorite off an ATS defeat.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Golden Eagles lost here, at home, to Texas State, 50-36, last Saturday, and come into this game off 4 straight ATS defeats.  And those point spread failures have kept a lid on this number, to the point that there's value on the Golden Eagles.  Sun Belt Conference teams off 3 ATS losses have gone 34-13 ATS if they were off a double-digit loss.  And the Golden Eagles have covered 67% since 1980 as a home favorite off a SU conference loss at home the previous week.  We'll lay the points with Southern Mississippi.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies snapped their 3-game losing streak with an upset win over Pittsburgh last week.  But off that big win, we'll fade Virginia Tech in Tallahassee on Saturday.  Va Tech is a miserable 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a win, including 0-7 ATS on the road.  Lay the points with Florida State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  Last season, the Crimson Tide edged the Aggies, 24-20, as a 24.5-point favorite.  The number is considerably less this year, and we'll take the homestanding Aggies + the points, as they're 20-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, if the Aggies weren't laying 3 or more points.  Meanwhile, Alabama is a soft 6-13 ATS when not laying 7+ points, if the Crimson Tide weren't off a loss, or playing with revenge.  Take Texas A/M + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips +the points over Northern Illinois.  The Zips lost starting QB DJ Irons last week, late in the 4th quarter, and went on to lose at Buffalo, in overtime, 13-10.  Sixth-year senior, Jeff Undercuffler, Jr., took over under center for Irons, and he has experience as a starting QB.  Indeed, last year, he started against this Huskies squad, and led the Zips to a 44-12 blowout win.  We'll grab the points with the home underdog, as Northern Illinois is 0-11 ATS when priced from -2.5 to -10 points, and 0-12-1 ATS off a road point spread win, when the line in its current game was 14 points or less.  Take Akron.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons pulled off a major upset last week when they went into Georgia Tech and stunned the Yellow Jackets, 38-27, as a 21-point underdog.  Unfortunately, conference underdogs off a road win over a non-conference foe, as a 14.5-point (or greater) underdog, have covered just 28% since 1980, including 0-14 ATS their last 14 when priced from +3.5 to +16.  Lay the points with Miami-Ohio.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars pulled off an upset in their previous game when they toppled Oregon State, 38-35.  Meanwhile, the Bruins come into this game off a 14-7 loss to Utah.  We'll fade Wazzu at UCLA, as the Bruins have cashed 79% since 1980 vs. conference foes that were in off a home upset win over a fellow Pac-12 Conference foe.  Even better:  Pac-12 teams have covered 61.3% since 1980 after failing to score 10+ points in defeat, if they were matched up in their current game against an opponent off a straight-up win.  Take UCLA minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland.  The Buckeyes had a dreadful offensive game vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, as they were held scoreless in the 2nd half until they scored the game-winning touchdown with 1 second left, to prevail, 17-14.  I look for the Buckeyes to erupt on offense on Saturday, as they're 42-14 ATS in Big 10 Conference games after scoring less than 25 points in their previous game.  This will be a roast.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners + the points over Texas.  The Sooners play this game with MAJOR revenge, as the Longhorns blanked them, 49-0, last year.  Needless to say, Oklahoma will be out for blood on Saturday.  And I think it will get its revenge.  The Sooners have cashed 88% away from home in the regular season when playing with revenge against a .571 (or better) foe.  And NCAA teams playing with revenge from a 45-point (or worse) shutout loss have covered 64.8% since 1980 when not getting more than 20 points.  Take the Sooners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants over the Seattle Seahawks.  The Seahawks have won back to back games against the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions.  And they tallied 37 points in each victory.  I’m going to go against them on the road at New York, as teams off back to back 37-point games have covered just 37% over the last 44 seasons when playing on the road vs. a foe off a straight-up loss, including 20% ATS in non-division games.  Lay the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals blew out the previously-undefeated Cowboys, 28-16, as an 11-point home underdog.  But off that win, I will fade Arizona at San Francisco.  Since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off upset wins as double-digit dogs.  Additionally, the 49ers are 32-20 ATS at home vs. foes that won outright as an underdog the previous week.  And the Niners are also 13-1 ATS their last 14 home games when installed as the favorite.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Cleveland.  The Ravens were upset at home, 22-19, by the Indianapolis Colts last week.  And Baltimore was a 7.5-point favorite in that game.  But off that defeat, we’ll take the Ravens as a division road underdog at Cleveland.  Indeed, division dogs, off an upset loss in which they failed to cover the point spread by more than 10 points, have covered 58% since 1980 vs. opponents that don’t have a better win percentage.  That bodes well for John Harbaugh’s men on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Ravens are 35-20-4 ATS on the road off an upset loss, including 14-3-1 ATS as an underdog vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Philadelphia.  The Commanders lost for the first time this season when the Bills blew them out, 37-3, in Buffalo.  But off that huge defeat, I’ll take Washington to rebound in this division game at Philly.  Indeed, since 2000, .666 (or better) teams have gone 13-1 ATS as underdogs of +6 (or more) points, if they lost their previous game by more than 15 points.  And the Commanders are also 27-13-2 ATS on the road off a home loss, if their win percentage was greater than .400.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are 2-1 following an upset win last Sunday night at Las Vegas.  They’re back on the road at Houston this week, and have been installed as a road favorite.  Unfortunately for the Black and Gold, .666 (or better) road favorites have covered just 41% since 1980 off an upset road win, if matched up against an opponent with a losing record.  Pittsburgh’s also a wallet-busting 26-52 as a non-division road favorite of minus 2 (or more) points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, on Sunday, in a game played in London, England, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Atlanta.  Last week, I played against the Jaguars, and got the cash with Houston, which blew out Jacksonville, 37-17, as a 7.5-point underdog.  After 2 straight home losses, maybe the Jaguars can find some better fortune across the pond, in England.  I will lay the points with the Jaguars, as NFL teams have covered 69% the last 38 seasons away from home, if they were off a double-digit division loss as a favorite of more than 7 points.  Additionally, the Falcons have only covered 3 of 16 (18.75%) away from home as an underdog of 3 or more points vs. an opponent off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Notre Dame.  The Dukies are 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS under 2nd year coach, Mike Elko, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  On Saturday, Elko will match up against the team for which he served as defensive coordinator in 2017.  Duke comes into this game with a 4-0 record, and is outscoring its opposition by 28.5 ppg.  Notre Dame suffered a horrible loss last Saturday night at South Bend, when they gave up a touchdown to Ohio State with 1 second left in the game.  The Irish are a soft 61-81-2 ATS off a loss, and 3-8 ATS as road favorites vs. .857 (or better) foes.  That doesn't bode well for Notre Dame.  Nor does the fact that home dogs of more than 3 points, with scoring margins greater than 28 points, have covered 63 percent of non-conference games over the past 44 seasons.  Take Duke + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas State.  The Bobcats come into this game off a 35-24 home win vs. Nevada.  Unfortunately, Texas State is a terrible 5-24 SU and 9-19-1 ATS off a win.  Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles suffered an upset loss, 44-37, at Arkansas State.  But they've cashed 73% in Hattiesburg the last 42 years off an upset loss vs. a foe off a win.  Grab the points with Southern Miss.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern.  Coastal Carolina was upset, 30-17, by Georgia State, in Conway, last Saturday.  But off that upset loss, we'll take the home dog, as Sun Belt Conference home favorites have gone 10-27-1 ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Additionally, Georgia Southern is a poor 1-9 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off upset defeats.  Take Coastal Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Auburn.  The Bulldogs have been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Auburn, and we'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as it falls into Georgia's best point spread range.  The Bulldogs are an eye-popping 29-1 straight-up, and 24-6 ATS when priced from -7 to -20 points, including 10-0 SU/ATS their last 10.  Additionally, Georgia is 66-39 ATS on the road vs. winning foes, and 11-2 ATS its last 13 vs. Auburn (including 6-0 ATS since Dec 2017).  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen over Arkansas State.  UMass opened its 2023 season with an upset win at New Mexico State, but has dropped its last four games to fall to 1-4.  They'll welcome the Red Wolves to Amherst, and we'll take Don Brown's men on Saturday afternoon to snap their losing streak.  Arkansas State upset Southern Miss, 44-37, as a 7-point home dog last week, and it's a dreadful 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS on the road off an upset win as a 4-point (or greater) underdog.  Moreover, that Red Wolves victory has triggered a negative 54-101 ATS system of mine which goes against Arkansas State this week.  Take UMass.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes return home following three straight road wins (including ATS wins in the last two), and have been installed as a favorite vs. the 2-2 Jaguars.  We played against South Alabama last week, and got the $$$ with Central Michigan, which upset the Jags, 34-30, as a 16.5-point favorite.  But off that huge upset loss, we'll take the Jaguars to bounce back in Harrisonburg on Saturday.  Indeed, .500 (or better) underdogs have covered 78% since 1980 vs. conference foes, if our underdog was off an upset non-conference loss as a 16-point (or greater) favorite.  That bodes well for South Alabama.  As does the fact that it has covered 60% off a straight-up loss, if its opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles come into this Monday Night Football game with a 2-0 record after beating the Patriots and Vikings to start the season.  We'll go against Philly, as undefeated teams have cashed just 39.5% as a road favorite on Monday Night Football since 1980, including 2-11 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up and against-the-spread win.  With Tampa, indeed, in off a 10-point victory over the Bears, I'll grab the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears have started the season 0-2 SU/ATS, with an 18-point loss to Green Bay in Week 1, and a 10-point defeat last Sunday at Tampa.  Meanwhile, KC is 1-1 SU/ATS as it lost to the Lions at home, but rebounded to take down the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week.  I like taking underdogs in Week 3 off back to back double-digit losses, as they’ve covered 63% since 1980.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  The Saints come into this week's game with one of the four best scoring defenses, along with Dallas, Baltimore and San Francisco.  New Orleans has allowed just 16 ppg in its wins over Tennessee and Carolina.  That bodes well for them in Week 3, as NFL teams have cashed 72.3% off a win in Week 2, if their defense was giving up less than 20 points per game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  New Orleans is a solid 68-49 ATS as a road underdog off an ATS loss/tie in its previous game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Commanders are a surprising 2-0 following wins over the Cardinals and Broncos, and have been installed as a big home underdog vs. Buffalo, which blew out the Raiders by 28 points at home last week.  I'll take the home team, as winning home underdogs have gone 99-60 ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a 15-point (or greater) blowout home win.  Take the Commanders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. The Patriots come into this divisional match-up off back to back home losses in which they were underdogs, and failed to cover the point spread.  I'll take New England on the road vs. New York as NFL teams that failed to cover their first two games as underdogs have cashed 62% as favorites in Week 3.  Also, the Patriots are 16-0 ATS in the regular season on the road off a straight-up home loss, when not favored by 7+ points.  And the Jets are a miserable 68-120 ATS at home vs. foes that don't own a winning record.  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Jacksonville.  I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that don't have a winning record.  And especially not against a winless team like Houston.  Consider that .500 or worse teams are 69-109-3 ATS when laying 9 or more points to winless opposition.  I’ll take the double-digits with Houston.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes come into this game off an upset win of conference rival, Troy, and are now 3-0 on the season (but 1-2 ATS).  Meanwhile, Utah State is 1-2 SU, but 2-1 ATS.  We played against Utah State last Friday, and easily got the $$$ when Air Force blew out the Aggies, 39-21, as a 9-point favorite.  We'll take Utah State to bounce back on Saturday, as Mountain West conference teams have cashed 59.3% vs. non-conference foes off upset wins.  And James Madison also falls into a negative system of mine, which is 60-104 ATS since 1980, that goes against certain teams off upset conference wins.  Take Utah State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over UAB.  The #1-ranked Bulldogs are 3-0 on the season, but 0-2-1 ATS in Vegas after escaping last week with a too-close-for-comfort, 24-14 win vs. South Carolina.  We'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as defending National Champs have covered 60.2% since 1980 as double-digit home favorites off an ATS loss.  And Georgia is 35-1 SU and 27-9 ATS as a favorite of -3 (or more) points off an ATS loss, while UAB is 0-8 ATS its last eight games away from Birmingham.  Take Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Ohio State.  The Irish have easily won their first three games behind the brilliant play of ex-Wake Forest QB, Sam Hartman.  He's already passed for over 1000 yards, and has 13 TDs and 0 interceptions.  In what will no doubt be a raucous South Bend environment, I would rather have the veteran presence of Hartman than the relative inexperience of Kyle McCord (who will be making just his 5th career start).  The Irish have been installed as a home underdog vs. the Buckeyes, and we'll happily take the points, as Notre Dame is 19-8-1 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +6 points.  Even better:  Notre Dame plays this game with revenge from a 21-10 loss at Columbus last season.  And undefeated, single-digit, revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 58% of non-conference games since 1980.  Take the Irish.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves are 1-2 on the season, but 0-2 in games vs. FBS foes.  And they've been outscored, 117-34 on the season, for a negative scoring margin of -27.66.  That doesn't bode well here, as Southern Miss is 40-4 SU and 32-10-2 ATS as a favorites of less than 24 points vs. conference foes with a negative scoring margin of -8.5 points (or worse).  Admittedly, Golden Eagles RB Frank Gore, Jr. did get injured in last week's loss to Tulane.  But Southern Miss head coach, Will Hall, gave promising news Monday when he stated that Gore "had a great workout this morning.  He's looking good."  Regardless of whether Gore ultimately suits up on Saturday, we'll lay the points with the road favorite.  Take the Golden Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Rams suffered a brutal overtime loss to rival Colorado last Saturday.  But they easily covered the 23.5-point spread in defeat.  Today, the Rams will be seeking revenge against an MTSU squad which defeated it last season, 34-19, in Fort Collins.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS with revenge vs. non-conference foes when not getting 7+ points.  And they're 50-24 ATS off a point spread win, when not getting 3+ points in their current game.  Take Colorado State.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars pulled off a huge upset win over Oklahoma State when they won, 33-7, as a 7-point road underdog.  Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Sun Belt Conference teams have covered just 35.2% as favorites of more than 8 points following a non-conference upset win.  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Sun Belt teams have covered just 17 of 48 at home or neutral fields vs. Mid-American Conference foes.  Take Central Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Iowa State.  Both of these Big 12 teams come into this game off non-conference losses.  The Cowboys were blown out in Stillwater, 33-7, by South Alabama, while Ohio upset the Cyclones, 10-7, in Athens.  We'll grab the points with Mike Gundy's men, as they're 7-0 ATS off a 14-point (or worse) upset defeat.  Take the Cowboys + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Colorado.  Both the Ducks and Buffaloes are 3-0 on the season.  But there's still a wide disparity in talent, which is why Oregon is a sizable home favorite on Saturday afternoon.  We'll lay the points with the Ducks, as they're 30-13-1 ATS at home after covering the spread by 7+ points in winning their previous game.   And they're 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. Colorado.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Boston College.  We played on the Eagles last week, and got the $$$$ when they easily covered as a 26-point underdog at home vs. Florida State.  But Boston College will be playing its first road game of the season on Saturday, and it's a poor 4-10 ATS its last 14 away from Chestnut Hill.  That doesn't bode well for BC on Saturday afternoon.  Nor does the fact that the Cardinals check in off a point spread defeat.  And Louisville is a sensational 14-3-1 ATS off an ATS loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a favorite.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  The Wolves are 3-0 and ranked #2 in the country, and lead the nation in defensive ppg (5.3).  They've been without head coach, Jim Harbaugh, for their first 3 games, as he served a school-imposed suspension.  But Harbaugh will be back on the sidelines this Saturday.  And Michigan has gone 23-1 SU and 17-6-1 ATS in the regular season the past two seasons with Harbaugh, including 7-1-1 ATS when priced from -21 to -49 points.  We'll lay the points with Michigan, as NCAA double-digit favorites off an ATS loss, have gone 12-1 ATS in Game 4, if they owned a defense that gave up less than 8 ppg.  Meanwhile, undefeated, 3-0 teams (like Rutgers) off an ATS win, have cashed just 25% since 1980 when getting 20+ points.  And Rutgers is also a soft 15-36 ATS when priced from +21.5 to +33.5 points.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The Giants' defense has left a lot to be desired so far, this season.  New York allowed 40 points to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, and then gave up 28 to the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday.  But off those two awful defensive games, I actually look for a much better effort in Week 3.  Indeed, NFL road teams not favored by 3 or more points, have gone 39-12-3 ATS in Week 3 if they allowed 62 or more points over their first two games, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS off a straight up win.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Georgia State.  After blowing out Duquesne, 66-7, the Chanticleers are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season, and will welcome the Panthers to Conway for this Sun Belt Conference opener.  We'll lay the points with Coastal Carolina, as single-digit home favorites have covered 59.4% of conference games since 1980 after winning a game in which they scored 60+ points.  Take the Chanticleers to blow out Georgia State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Arizona.  The Giants laid a goose egg last Sunday, as they were shut out, 40-0, by Dallas.  Off that embarrassing defeat, we'll step in and lay the points with New York in Week 2.  Indeed, road favorites (or PK) have covered 64% since 1980 off a division shutout loss.  And the Giants are also a solid 42-23-1 ATS off a home point spread defeat.  Take New York minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over San Francisco.  The Rams pulled off a stunning Week 1 upset, when they blew out the Seattle Seahawks, 30-13, on the road.  They will now welcome the 49ers to SoFi Stadium.  We'll take the Rams as a huge underdog, as home dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 72-53 ATS off a road upset win.  And San Francisco is a wallet-busting 35-58 ATS away from home off a win by 13+ points, including 5-18 ATS when priced from -4 to -10 points.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Last week, the Bears were upset, 38-20, by their rival, Green Bay, while Tampa upset Minnesota, 20-17.  If one looks at the yardage stats, however, one will see that Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards (329-311), while Tampa was outgained by 127 (369-242).  The difference in the two games, of course, was turnovers.  Chicago committed 2 turnovers (vs 0 for Green Bay), while Tampa forced 3 turnovers, and didn't commit any, itself.  We'll fade Tampa off its upset win, as home favorites have covered just 31% since 1980 in Week 2 off an upset road victory, if its opponent was off an upset defeat.  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Detroit.  The Lions upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to kick off their season.  But off that upset victory, we'll fade Detroit on Sunday.  Indeed, over the past 43 years, home favorites have covered just 30.7% off an upset win over the defending Super Bowl champs, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset defeat.  With Seattle in off an upset loss at the hands of the Rams, we'll grab the points with Pete Carroll's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Josh Allen could not have played worse last Monday, as he committed a key fumble, and also threw 3 interceptions.  We didn't mind, as we had a big play on the Jets.  But we'll switch gears, and take Buffalo to bounce back here, at home, in Week 2.  The Bills are a solid 20-6 ATS as a home favorite off a road loss, when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers have been installed as a small road favorite following their upset win, 38-20, over division rival, Chicago.  We'll fade Green Bay, as road favorites have covered just 33% since 1980 in Week 2 off upset wins on the road over a division rival to start the season.  I look for Green Bay to have a letdown on Sunday.  Take Atlanta.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Bowling Green.  This will be the 3rd (and final) game of Jim Harbaugh's suspension for alleged NCAA violations.  The Wolves have won both games in his absence, but have failed to cover the spread.  I like Michigan to break through today with an ATS win, as it is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite of -14 (or more) points off back to back ATS defeats.  Lay the wood.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brigham Young Cougars + the points over Arkansas.  These two teams met last season in Provo, and the Razorbacks won, 52-35.  We'll take the revenge-minded Cougars + the points in Fayetteville, as BYU is 22-4 ATS as revenge-minded road underdogs, including 8-0 ATS its last eight in this situation.  Grab the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Syracuse.  The Orange have been stellar defensively to start the season.  They allowed just 7 points last week in a 48-7 victory over Western Michigan, and shut out Colgate, 65-0, to kick off the season.  They're now favored by a small amount on the road vs. Purdue, which won, 24-17, as a 1-point favorite last week at Virginia Tech.  This is a revenge match for Purdue, which lost, 32-29, at Syracuse last season.  We'll take the home underdog Boilermakers, as home dogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed 66% since 1981 in non-conference games vs. foes that gave up less than 10 points in their two previous games.  Additionally, the Orange are 14-28-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Boilermakers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks + the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats pulled off a huge upset of the Pitt Panthers last week, 27-21.  But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bearcats as a big favorite on Saturday.  The RedHawks are playing with revenge from a 38-17 loss last season.  And revenge-minded double digit underdogs have 65.6% since 1980 against non-conference foes off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Miami-Ohio.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Western Kentucky.  Ryan Day's Buckeyes have gotten off to a slow start this season -- at least in Las Vegas -- as they're 0-2 ATS (though 2-0 SU).  And they've failed to cover the point spread by double-digits in each win.  Notwithstanding this lack of point spread success, we'll take Ohio State on Saturday, as it's 8-0 ATS its last eight (and 50-38-2 ATS its last 90) off back to back point spread defeats.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers have been installed as a favorite of more than a TD vs. East Carolina, and we'll happily take the underdog Pirates, as Appalachian State is a horrid 0-13 ATS its last 13 when priced from +4 to -8.5 points.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Duke.  The Duke Blue Devils are 2-0 and ranked #21 in the country, and own an impressive win over then-No. 9 Clemson. On Saturday, the Blue Devils will host a Northwestern team in transition this season following the firing of longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats and Blue Devils have met each of the previous two seasons, and six of the last eight. And what’s most unusual is that Duke has won outright as an underdog in each of the last four meetings, including 31-23 as a double-digit road underdog last season. This year, of course, it’s Northwestern catching double-digits, and I’ll take the points with the Wildcats. For technical support, consider that teams playing with revenge that were upset in each of the previous three meetings have covered 58.3% the past 43 years, including 34-18-1 ATS, 65%, on the road. I know that Duke has been an ATM machine under 2nd-year head coach Mike Elko, as it’s gone 10-3 ATS. But it was only favored by more than 10 points one other time, and it failed to cover that game vs. Boston College as an 11.5-point favorite. Here, it’s laying considerably more than that, and my numbers say It’s too many points. Take Northwestern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Georgia Southern.  The Badgers were upset by the Washington State Cougars, 31-22, as a 5.5-point road favorite last Saturday.  And that was the 2nd straight ATS defeat for Luke Fickell's men.  We'll lay the points with Wisky in this game, as favorites of 14+ points have covered 83% since 1980 in Week 3, if they were off an upset loss, and were 0-2 ATS on the season.  Last year, Wisconsin was upset four times, and was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS off those upset defeats, winning by an average of 28 points (and covering by an average of 14.25).  This will be a rout.  Take the Badgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Kansas State.  The Tigers had a scare last week, as it won, 23-19, as a 21-point home favorite vs. Middle Tennessee.  This Saturday, it will be a home underdog vs. the 15th-ranked Wildcats, who are 2-0 SU/ATS. I love Missouri in this game, as it's covered 75% over the past 43 years as a home dog off an ATS loss vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, K-State is a wallet-crushing 7-19 ATS on the non-conference road when not getting 17+ points, including 3-7 ATS as a road favorite.  Take Missouri.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls + the points over Liberty.  The Bulls was shocked last week in an upset home loss to Fordham, 40-37, as a 22.5-point favorite.  The Bulls are now installed as a home underdog vs. the 2-0 SU/ATS Flames, and we'll grab the points, as home dogs have cashed 60% since 1980 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite if matched up against a non-conference foe off back to back ATS wins.  Buffalo's also cashed 82% the last 22 years as underdogs vs. non-conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Bulls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles have sprinted out to a 2-0 SU/ATS start with blowout wins over LSU (45-24) and Southern Miss (66-13).  In contrast, the Eagles are 0-2 ATS after being upset, 27-24, by Northern Illinois in Week 1, and narrowly defeating Holy Cross last week, 31-28, as as 10.5-point favorite.  We'll fade Florida State as a big favorite on Saturday, as ACC Conference favorites of -7 (or more) points have gone 21-49-1 ATS off back to back ATS wins when playing an opponent off back to back ATS losses, including 0-9 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Take Boston College.