Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Virginia.  The Terps will host a former ACC Conference rival, Virginia, on Friday night.  Maryland left the ACC for the Big 10 Conference in 2014, but has gone 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC since then.  And the Terrapins have also been terrific since 1980 as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points vs. ACC schools, as they've covered 63.8%.  Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS as road underdogs vs. foes off back to back ATS losses.  Take Maryland minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Texas San Antonio.  QB Frank Harris suffered a toe injury in last week's win, but managed to play through the pain, and guided the Roadrunners to the win over Texas State.  He's questionable to play tonight.  Regardless, we're going to go against Texas San Antonio, and grab the points with Army.  The Black Knights play this game with revenge from a 41-38 loss at home to UTSA last season, and fall into a 228-145-5 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Roadrunners are a dismal 1-15 ATS their last 16 when priced from -6.5 to -10.5 points.  Take Army.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Jets are looking for big things this season behind newly-acquired QB Aaron Rodgers.  And it all starts tonight, in a Week 1 game against division rival, Buffalo.  We'll grab the points with New York, as Aaron Rodgers has gone 73-43-4 ATS at home in his career starts, including 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and 29-13 ATS in division games.  Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are a wallet-busting 9-16-1 ATS as a division road favorite.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Chargers are my Futures Pick this season at 25-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  I expect a major leap forward for Brandon Staley’s men and one of my primary reasons is the hire of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.  When Moore was with the Cowboys the past 4 seasons, Dallas’s offense ranked among the Top 4 in the league over that 4-year stretch.  The Chargers added rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnson, who was their first round draft pick, and he’ll team up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to give 4th year QB Justin Herbert a trio of quality receivers to throw downfield.  And, of course, the Chargers have Austin Ekeler in the backfield, so the pieces are there to make a Super Bowl run.  The Chargers are 15-2-1 ATS in season openers when not favored by 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in non-division games.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Miami.   Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Philadelphia.  The Patriots have been installed as a home underdog vs. the defending NFC Conference champs, and I’ll grab the points with Bill Belichick's men.  New England is 31-16-1 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-7 ATS vs. non-division foes, while Philly is a poor 10-22 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points, including 3-12 ATS in non-division games.  Even worse for the Eagles:  the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year have gone 12-32-2 ATS as a non-division road favorite of -4 or less points vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Underdog is 8-3 ATS in this series.  Take the Patriots + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Division home dogs in the month of September are 51-29 ATS their last 80. And the underdog
in this Buckeye State rivalry has gone 20-11-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings, and 6-1 ATS in the last seven.  Take the Browns + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Auburn.  We played on the Tigers last week as our NCAA Football Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 59-14 massacre of UMass.  But off that 45-point triumph, we'll switch gears, and fade the Tigers in Berkeley on Saturday night.  Like Auburn, California's offense was in high gear last weekend, as they annihilated North Texas, 58-21, as a 5-point road favorite.  California piled up 669 yards of offense, and allowed the Mean Green just 225.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS its last six non-conference road games, and has covered just 28% as a non-conference road favorite over the last 40 seasons.  Take California + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls + the points over Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights won their season-opener, 24-7, at home vs. Northwestern.  But Rutgers is a poor 3-12 ATS off a point spread win, including 1-8 ATS at home.  Temple also will be looking to avenge a home loss to the Scarlet Knights last season.  And the Owls are a sensational 75-34-5 ATS when playing with revenge, and priced as an underdog of less than 23 points.  Take Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Oregon.  The Ducks put up 81 points last week in an 81-7 pummeling of Portland State.  We'll go against Oregon on the road in Lubbock, as NCAA road teams have covered just 36% in Week 2 since 1990 after scoring more than 65 points in their season opener.  Even better:  Texas Tech is 15-0 ATS as a home underdog priced from +4 to +18 points off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Red Raiders + the points.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs blew out Louisiana Tech, 38-14, last Saturday, in their season opener.  Unfortunately, SMU is a wallet breaking 0-9 ATS its last nine (and 13-25 ATS its last 38) road games off a win by 15+ points, and 6-22 ATS on the road after scoring 38+ points.  Take Oklahoma minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies walloped New Mexico, 52-10, as a 38-point home favorite last Saturday.  But the Aggies have a massive step-up in class this weekend, as they will have to go into Hard Rock Stadium to take on a Hurricanes squad riding high after its season-opening 38-3 win over Miami-Ohio.  The Hurricanes have cashed 68% since 1980 as home underdogs vs. non-conference foes, while Texas A&M is 0-15 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .600 (or better) foes, if the Aggies weren't getting more than 14 points.  Take Miami-Fla + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Colorado.  The Buffaloes pulled off a massive upset last week, when they went into Fort Worth, and knocked off the Horned Frogs, 45-42, as a 21-point underdog.  But off that stunning win, I'll look for a letdown on Saturday, as home favorites off an upset win as a double-digit underdog to kick off the season have covered just 35 percent over the last 43 years.  Grab the points with Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Notre Dame.  NC State kicked off its season with a win at Connecticut, 24-14, last week, and will welcome the 2-0 Fighting Irish into Carter-Finley Stadium for their home opener.  The Irish come into Raleigh off back to back stifling defensive performances.  Notre Dame blew out Navy, 42-3, in Dublin, and then trounced Tennessee State, 56-3, in South Bend.  But off those two games, we'll fade the Irish as a road favorite on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, road favorites have covered just 25% vs. winning teams in Game 3, if our road favorite didn't give up more than 7 points combined in their first two games.  NC State has won its last 13 home openers, straight-up, and I look for an upset win in this early game on Saturday.  Grab the points with NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over the Massachusetts Minutemen.  Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on UMass +7 over New Mexico State, and were rewarded with a 41-30 upset win by Don Brown's troops.  UMass has now matched its win total for each of the last three full seasons, as it went 1-11 in each of 2019, 2021 and 2022 (it went 0-4 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season).  But even though victorious, the Minutemen were out-yarded by the Aggies, 458-389.  The difference in the game, of course, was turnovers.  UMass held onto the ball, while New Mexico State coughed it up 3 times.  It would be folly to expect that kind of turnover luck to continue here, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  Moreover, since 2019, the Minutemen have been miserable against the spread, including 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS when priced from +23 to +38 points.  Meanwhile, Auburn has gone 26-19 ATS in that point spread range.  Off that big upset win, we'll fade UMass, as it falls into a 'letdown' system of mine which has cashed 69.6% since 1988.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  We played against Houston last Saturday and easily cashed Miami, which blew out the Texans, 28-3.  Meanwhile, the Saints went into Los Angeles, and downed the Chargers, 22-17, as a 3-point road favorite.  New Orleans is a horrible 17-32-1 ATS as a home favorite in the preseason when laying more than 2 points, while Houston is 14-3 ATS as a road underdog in the preseason when getting more than 2 points.  That bodes well for the Texans here.  As does the fact that teams off blowout losses by more than 20 points have covered 60.4% in the preseason when playing away from home.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen + the points over New Mexico State.  After coaching UMass from 2004 to 2008 (the best 5-year period in UMass' football history), Don Brown returned to Amherst last season to man the sidelines again.  Last season, UMass struggled to a 1-11 record, which was the 3rd straight full season it went 1-11.  This year, UMass will look to improve on that record, and it will open the 2023 season against a team which it lost to each of the past two years.  The Aggies won, 44-27, in 2021, as a 7 point home favorite.  And then, last season, they went into Amherst, and down the Minutemen, 23-13, in a PK'em game.  We'll play on the double-revenge-minded Minutemen, as the Aggies are a poor 3-17 ATS at home when playing an opponent it defeated the previous season, including 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of less than 8 points.  And they're 4-11 ATS vs. teams they defeated each of the two previous seasons, including 1-7 ATS at home.  Grab the points with UMass.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Last week, the Browns tied the Philadelphia Eagles, 18-18, while KC blew out Arizona, 38-10.  But off that 28-point blowout win, we'll fade Andy Reid's men this afternoon.  The Chiefs have been installed as a home underdog.  Unfortunately, since 1983, home dogs of more than 3 points have covered just 27 percent in the preseason off a win by more than 8 points.  That bodes well for the Browns.  As does the fact that the Chiefs are a wallet-crushing 20-49-1 ATS in the preseason when not favored by 2 (or more) points, including 4-24 ATS vs. foes off a win/tie in their previous game.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Seattle.  The Cowboys have been installed as a big underdog vs. Seattle.  I've never been a fan of laying this many points in a preseason game, as favorites of more than 6 points have covered just 42% since 1983, including 35% off a double-digit win.  With Seattle, indeed, off a 24-13 win vs. Minnesota, we'll fade the Seahawks, and take the points with Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Green Bay.  The Jordan Love era got off on the right foot last week, as the Packers destroyed Cincinnati, 36-19.  Meanwhile, New England stumbled in its opener, and fell to Houston, 20-9.  But we'll take the Patriots to bounce back, as teams off a loss have covered 58% vs. foes that scored 35+ points the previous week.  Take New England.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the New York Jets.  We played on the Jets last week vs. Carolina, and were rewarded with a 27-0 upset win.  Unfortunately for New York, teams that are favored (or Pk'em) off shutout wins have covered just 38% in the preseason.  Take Tampa Bay + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston has been installed as a favorite this week following its 20-9 win at New England in Week 1.  This afternoon, Houston will take on the Dolphins, who out-yarded the Atlanta Falcons, 317-227, in their opener, but lost, 19-3.  The reason the Dolphins lost was turnovers.  Miami coughed up the football four times, while the Falcons committed zero turnovers.  We'll take Miami to bounce back off that embarrassing defeat, as NFL road underdogs with a scoring margin at least 27 points worse than their opponent have covered 63% since 1983 in Week 2.  Meanwhile, teams like Houston, off a double-digit road win in Week 1 have covered just 43% in Week 2.  Grab the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Bengals were blown out at home, 36-19, by Green Bay last week, and have been installed as a huge underdog this week.  We'll grab the points, as underdogs of more than 6 have covered 57.4 percent in the preseason since 1983.  Even better:  the Falcons are a miserable 15-35 ATS their last 50 preseason games, including 5-20 ATS at home.  Take Cincinnati + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Carolina Panthers.  QB Aaron Rodgers didn't play in last week's 21-16 upset loss to the Cleveland Browns, and he won't play again today vs. the Panthers.  So, the Panthers have been installed as a big favorite, in Frank Reich's debut as head coach.  But I will happily take the points with the Jets, as the Panthers have covered just 3 of 16 preseason games vs. foes off an upset loss, provided the Panthers weren't also off an upset loss.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  We played on Denver in Games 1 + 3 in this series (and passed Game 2).  But we will take Miami in Game 4, as Denver's a horrible road team off an ATS win.  And especially against foes that failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game, as Denver's 13-44-1 ATS its last 58.  Yikes!  Moreover, Miami is a solid 38-12 straight-up, and 31-16-3 ATS at home as a winning team off a straight-up home defeat.  And it's 56-34 ATS in the Playoffs when it didn't lead in a series.  Grab the points with Jimmy Butler & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Kudos to Miami, which knocked out the last two Eastern Conference Champs (Milwaukee, Boston).  Unfortunately, knocking out Denver will be most difficult.  The Nuggets have home court advantage, and are 42-7 at home this season.  They're also 30-17-2 ATS at Ball Arena, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.34 ppg.  We'll fade Miami in this Game 1, as Eastern Conference teams are 1-13 straight-up, and 2-12 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals when playing away from home.  And Denver is 23-11 SU and 25-9 ATS vs. Miami in the last 34 meetings, including 5-0 SU/ATS the last five here, in Denver.  And Denver won their last five home games vs. the Heat by an average of 15 ppg.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Celtics are down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series, so tonight's game (much like Tuesday's game) is a 'must-win' for Boston.  The Heat were in a similar position vs. Milwaukee, and they upset the Bucks, 128-126, in overtime, as a 13.5-point underdog.  But in 7-game series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format, home teams have typically done well in Game 5 when down 3-games-to-1, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990.  And, regardless of series format, or venue, teams down 3-1 have cashed 56.5%, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were a 2-seed, and favored by 4+ points.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Miami.  The Celtics are down 3-games-to-none, but I don't believe they'll go down without a fight.  Indeed, before Boston's 128-102 loss to Miami on Sunday, it had only lost by 20+ points five times in the last two seasons.  And the Celtics bounced back from each of those blowout losses to go 5-0 SU/ATS in their next game (winning by an average of 13.2 ppg).  Boston is also 9-1 ATS in the Playoffs when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 if it was off back to back SU/ATS losses, and not up in a Playoff series.  And it's 20-4 ATS away from home in the Playoffs if it didn't lead in the series, and failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in its previous game.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Celts have their proverbial back against the wall after losing both games at home to start this series.  We'll fade Miami as a home underdog, as home dogs have covered just 33% in the Playoffs since 1991 off back to back road underdog (or PK'em) wins.  Even better:  Game 3 home teams have gone just 25-44 SU and 28-41 ATS off an upset win as a 5.5-point (or greater) underdog in Game 2.  Finally, the Celtics are an awesome 15-1-1 ATS as a favorite of -2 (or more) points off back to back upset defeats.  And Miami is 17-37 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe off a straight-up loss.  Lay the points.

At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.  It's been a case of "close, but no cigar" for the Los Angeles Lakers in this series.  They're down 2 games to none but haven't lost against the point spread in either of the first two games.  We'll lay the points with the Purple and Gold, and go against the #1-seeded Nuggets.  For technical support, consider that NBA #1 seeds have covered just 30 of 80 when up 2-games-to-none, and not laying more than 4 points.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 56-29 ATS in the Playoffs when favored by 2 or more points, if they did not have a series lead.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami.  The Celts lost here, at home, 123-116, on Wednesday to Erik Spoelstra's Heat.  And that was Boston's 3rd straight defeat at the hands of Miami.  We'll take Boston to bounce back from that loss, as it's an awesome 62-29 ATS when playing with double-revenge, if it failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  And it's 71-41-2 ATS off a home loss, if favored vs. a foe off a win.  Finally, Boston's a reliable 10-1 ATS its last 11 off an upset playoff defeat.  Lay the points with Jayson Tatum & Co. in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Celtics were upset at home, 115-103, as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday.  We'll take Boston to bounce back, as it's 34-10 ATS following an upset loss to a division rival, if Boston was favored by 4+ points in that defeat.  And the Celtics are also 19-3 ATS away from home in the Playoffs, if they didn't lead in the series, and were off a home game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points.  Take Boston.

At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The defending champs find themselves down 3-games-to-1 in this 'must-win' Game 5.  We'll lay the points with the Warriors, as NBA defending champs have covered 61% since 1990 in Games 5, 6 or 7 of a playoff series when facing elimination.  Even better:  the Warriors have covered 72.7% in the NBA Playoffs since 1990 when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are 0-8 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS in the Playoffs since 1990 when installed as an underdog of +5 (or more) points vs. a double-revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Golden State.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Erik Spoelstra's men covered the point spread for the 7th straight time on Monday, when they defeated New York, 109-101, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But we'll go against Miami on Wednesday, as NBA Underdogs of +2 (or more) points, with a win percentage less than .666, have gone 37-73-3 ATS after covering the spread in 7+ games.  Lay the points with New York.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles won Game 3 here, at Crypto.com Arena, 127-97.  We cashed the Under in that game, but will focus on the Side in this Game 4.  We'll grab the points with the Warriors, and go against a Lakers team which is an awful 14-51 ATS as a home favorite off a win, when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated by more than 7 points in the previous meeting.  Additionally, the Warriors are 58-39 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when playing with revenge.  And, finally, NBA road teams have cashed 73 percent since 1990 after losing a playoff game in which they scored less than 99, and surrendered more than 121.  Take the Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Boston.  The Celtics blew out Philly for the 2nd straight game on Friday, as they won 114-102, to take a 2-games-to-1 series lead.  We'll fade the Celtics in Game 4, as they're 0-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs off back to back SU/ATS wins, if they won their previous game by more than 11 points.  Even better:  home teams off a loss have cashed 65.4% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back games vs the same foe, if each game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 3 points or less.  Finally, Philly is 12-0 ATS its last 12 off back to back losses, if it wasn't favored by 8+ points.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets took care of business at home, as they won both games by double-digits, including a 97-87 win on Monday, in Game 2.  We'll fade Denver tonight on the road, as it's 27-58-1 ATS on the road off a win by more than eight points.  Additionally, home teams have gone 22-7 ATS when playing with at least 3 days' of rest off a road playoff loss.  Finally, #1-seeded teams up 2-games-to-none have covered just nine of 28 games as an underdog vs. teams seeded #4 (or worse).  Lay the points with Phoenix.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  LeBron James & Co. upset the Warriors on Tuesday.  We'll take Golden State to avenge that defeat, as the Lakers are 22-49 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset in the previous meeting.  And LeBron James' teams have gone 0-6 ATS in the Playoffs in his career off an upset win, if playing a sub-.640 foe.  Finally, the Warriors are 61-38 ATS vs. division rivals, if the Warriors were off a SU loss.  Lay the points with Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia.  The 76ers are on a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS streak, including an upset win over Boston in Game 1 on Monday.  We'll fade Philly tonight, as NBA underdogs of +8 (or more) points have gone 12-40 ATS vs. foes off a game where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points.  Even worse for the Sixers:   they're 18-36 ATS as road underdogs of more than 4 points vs. .501 (or better) foes.  And, finally, the Celtics are 60-29 ATS when playing with double revenge, if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Miami.  The Heat took Game 1, 108-101.  We'll lay the points with the Knicks in Game 2, as they're 81-38 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if playing with revenge from a home loss vs. a .500 (or better) foe.  Even better:  teams (like Miami) have covered just 23 of 65 away from home in the post-season after covering the spread in each of their three previous games by more than 7 points.  And #5-seeded teams (like New York) have gone 69-31-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Knicks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Knicks took 3 of the 4 games vs. the Heat this season, and covered the point spread in both home games.  And here at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks are 11-4 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when not favored by 8 or more points.  Meanwhile, the Heat are 7-14 ATS their last 21 road games.  And underdogs of more than 3 points are 0-9 ATS their last nine away from home off 3 covers by 7+ points.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks shocked the Celtics in Boston to win Game 5, and close the gap in this series to 3-2.  Unfortunately for Atlanta, NBA home teams off a win in Game 5, but down 3-games-to-2, have gone 1-12 ATS in Game 6 when not favored by 2 or more points.  And the Celtics are 18-7 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset defeat, while the Hawks are 1-13 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset win.  Lay the points with Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  The Bucks have fallen in a 3-1 hole after dropping both games in Miami.  Still, the #1-seeded Bucks should have reason for optimism.  They had the #1 record in the league this season, and are 33-10 SU at home, with a 24-17-2 ATS record, including 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS off a straight-up loss.  Even better, the Bucks are 53-22 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  Finally, in match-ups between .528 (or better) teams, underdogs off back to back upset home wins have gone 2-30 SU and 5-27 ATS.  Take Milwaukee to blow out the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Grizzlies fell, 117-111, in overtime on Monday.  And they fell behind by 2 games in this 1st Round Playoff series.  We'll lay the points with Memphis, as #2-seeded teams have gone 17-6 ATS at home when down at least two games in a Playoff series.  And the Grizz are 9-2-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Cavs did not have a good trip to the Big Apple, as they lost Games 3 + 4 to the Knicks to fall behind 3-games-to-1 in this series.  We'll take the Cavaliers to rebound on Wednesday, as they're 12-0 SU/ATS at home when priced from -3 to -12 off a loss if matched up against an opponent off a win.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are 1-9 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes off back to back losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Minnesota.  The Nuggets come into this game off a road loss in Game #4 to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  Still, they lead this series 3 games to 1, and will look to close out their division rival tonight.  Denver is 36-7 SU and 27-15-1 ATS at home this season, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.62 ppg.  Notably, against .500 (or better) teams, the Nuggets are riding a 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS run at home!  Meanwhile, the T-Wolves are a poor 0-18 ATS their last 18 on the road vs. .500 (or better) teams following a T-Wolves cover by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Bucks lost Game 3, 121-99, which puts their back against the wall in this Game 4.  The last thing Milwaukee wants to do is fall behind 3-games-to-1 in this series.  The good news for Mike Budenholzer's men is that they're 6-1 ATS their last seven when trailing in a playoff series.  And they're 17-5 ATS on the road when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) defeat.  Finally, since 1990, NBA teams have cashed 76.4% after scoring less than 100 points in an upset Playoff loss, if they surrendered 115+ points in that previous game.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  We played against the Lakers in Game 2, and got the $$$ with the Grizzlies in a blowout win.  We'll switch gears for this Game 3 and take the homestanding Lakers, who are 14-6 SU/ATS off a straight-up loss since December 27.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-19 SU and 8-20-1 ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, including 0-12-1 ATS as an underdog!  Lay the points with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The T-Wolves are down 2-games-to-none to Denver.  But the Nuggets are now on the road, where they've NOT been an elite team over the years.  Indeed, the Nuggets are a horrid 11-33 ATS on the road off back to back ATS losses, including 0-10 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.  This season, Denver was under water away from home, with a 19-22 SU/ATS record, including 9-15 ATS as a road favorite.  The T-Wolves are 11-3 ATS their last 14 as a home underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Sacramento.  We played on the Kings in Game 1, and passed Game 2.  But we will lay the points with the Warriors in this Game 3, as they're back in San Francisco.  This season, the Warriors have been dominant at home, and dreadful on the road, so it's no surprise they're down 2-games-to-0 with the first two games played in Sacramento.  But now, Golden State is back home, where it's 33-8 straight-up, and 27-13-1 ATS this season, including 10-2 ATS vs. .529 (or better) foes, and 15-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  And the Warriors are 45-23-1 ATS in the Playoffs when playing with revenge.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over the Philly 76ers.  Jacque Vaughn's men were blown out of Games 1 + 2.  But we'll grab the points with the home puppy in Game 3, as the 76ers are a woeful 12-27-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less points (or PK) on the road off back to back wins, when they've owned a win percentage of .625 (or greater).  Meanwhile, the Nets are a solid 60-29 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when facing a foe off a 9-point (or greater) win, if the Nets weren't favored by more than 2 points.  Brooklyn also falls into 65-38, 92-55 and 161-106 ATS systems of mine that play on certain playoff teams off blowout losses.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  Milwaukee suffered a loss in Game 1, as Miami went into Fiserv Forum, and upset the Bucks, 130-117.  Trailing in a playoff series isn't unfamiliar territory for Milwaukee, so I don't expect that it will be discouraged.  Indeed, the Bucks are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS in the Playoffs when they were trailing or tied in the series.  Even better:  off an upset playoff loss, the Bucks have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, Miami is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS off an upset playoff win.  Finally, the Bucks are a wallet-fattening 52-22-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 21-4 ATS when playing with rest off a home loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers upset the Grizzlies on Sunday, 128-112, as a 5.5-point underdog, behind 29 points from Rui Hachimura, and 23 from Austin Reaves.  We'll take the Grizzlies on Wednesday to level the series at 1 game apiece, as NBA teams off playoff losses by more than 15 points that also failed to cover the spread by more than 20 in that defeat, have gone 106-76-1 ATS since 1991.  Even better:  Memphis is 8-2-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are a poor 5-24-1 ATS on the road when playing a foe they upset in the season's previous meeting.  Take the Grizzlies in Game #2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Los Angeles.  Kawhi Leonard led the Clips to victory in Game 1 with 38 points, as Los Angeles upset Phoenix, 115-110.  We'll take the Suns to bounce back on Tuesday, as they're 62-30-1 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season.  And if it's a playoff game, then our 62-30 stat zooms to 11-1 ATS.  Lay the points with the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the New York Knicks.  New York upset the Cavaliers in Game 1, 101-97.  And that was Cleveland's 2nd straight upset defeat, overall.  We'll take the Cavs to bounce back in Game 2, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990 off back to back upset losses, including 79% when priced as a favorite of less than 8 points.  Additionally, since 1990, favorites of less than 12 points have cashed 60% in the playoffs off back to back upset losses.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  In the pandemic-impacted 2020 season, the Bucks were the number 1 seed, but were bounced out of the playoffs by the then-No. 5 seeded Heat.  However, since that series loss, Milwaukee has dominated the Heat here, at home, as the Bucks are 7-0 straight-up, and 5-2 ATS, with an average point spread differential of 10.3 ppg.  The Bucks come into Sunday's Game 1 vs. Miami off back to back losses in what were (admittedly) meaningless games.  This game, of course, is anything but meaningless.  And we'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as it's 52-21-1 ATS at home off back to back losses.  Take the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over the Golden State Warriors.  This season, the Kings have covered 3 of 4 vs. Golden State.  Coincidentally, these two teams met two games ago, and the Warriors won, 119-97, for their only point spread win of the season vs. Sacramento.  Notwithstanding that loss, since 2017, Sacramento is a super 18-8 ATS vs. the Warriors, including 10-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And Golden State is a horrid 32-72 ATS off a point spread win when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Finally, I just can't get behind the Warriors on the road tonight.  For the season, the Warriors are a woeful 11-30 straight-up, and 12-28-1 ATS away from San Francisco, including 2-14-1 ATS when the point spread was less than five points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Heat were upset here, at home, by Atlanta in its initial Play-in round game.  We'll take Miami to bounce back, as it's 66-34-3 ATS as a winning team when rested, and favored by 4+ points off an upset loss.  Additionally, in the Playoffs or Play-in round, the Heat are 14-0 ATS their last 14 off an upset loss when facing a sub-.700 foe which won its previous game.  Lay the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders minus 1.5 goals over the Montreal Canadiens.  The Isles had their playoff fate in their own hands as they went into DC as a heavy favorite to play a lackluster Caps team on Monday.  But of course things don't always go as planned in the NHL and the Caps jumped out to a 3-0 first period lead from which New York could not recover.  That upset was their fifth loss in a row.  But, as luck would have it, the Pittsburgh Penguins suffered an even worse upset last night when they lost at home (as a -490 favorite) to the woeful Chicago Blackhawks.  So, the Isles' fate is now back in their hands.  If they earn a point tonight, they'll punch the final ticket to the post-season.  The Isles, of course, are favored against a Canadiens team which has essentially stopped playing -- they've dropped five of their last six games by an aggregate score of 25-11.  Not that they need any more motivation, but this is also a revenge situation for the Isles, as the Habs beat them in their last meeting, 4-3, in OT back in February.  Montreal is a miserable 22-54 (minus 20.6 net games) off a road loss.  Take New York minus 1.5 goals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over New Orleans.  This is a huge game for both teams, as it will greatly impact their seeding in the Western conference.  We'll side with the homestanding T-Wolves, as New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 8-24-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, including 1-13 ATS off a straight-up win.  Take the T-Wolves minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Lakers can finish anywhere from #6 to #8 in the Western conference, so they're incentivized to win this afternoon.  We'll lay the points with the rested Lakers, and go against an unrested Jazz team playing its 3rd game in four days.  The Jazz upset the Nuggets in Salt Lake City yesterday, as a 10-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Utah, unrested teams have covered just 38 of 98 following an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) home underdog.  Take the Lakers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Toronto comes into this game off back to back losses to the Boston Celtics.  And it will also seek to avenge a 7-point loss to these Bucks, at Milwaukee last month.  We'll lay the points with the Raptors, as they're 124-80-5 ATS off back to back losses, including 11-6-1 ATS this season, and 14-5-1 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a division rival.  Take Toronto.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks were upset at home by the Philadelphia 76ers in their previous game, and are now a road underdog at Boston on this final day of the regular season.  We'll go against the Hawks, as road dogs have covered just 32.5% since 1990 in the final game of the season, if they were off an upset home loss.  Take the Celtics.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the Miami Heat.  The Magic may not be headed toward the post-season.  But it's been a successful season by any measure.  Orlando's 34-47 SU and 45-33-3 ATS, including 30-15-3 ATS as an underdog of +4 (or more) points.  The Magic are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 meetings vs. Miami.  Take the Magic + the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers come into this game off an upset win over Atlanta as an 11.5-point underdog.  We'll fade Philly today, as .625 (or better) road underdogs have covered just 36% of division games since 1990 off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog.  Take Brooklyn.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Bulls have qualified for the Play-in round, while Dallas is still fighting to do the same.  The odds are against Dallas, of course, but hope does remain.  But that hope will be extinguished if it loses to the Bulls tonight.  Chicago will be playing its final road game of the season, and was blown out, 105-92, at Milwaukee, on Wednesday.  We'll go against the Bulls, as .450 (or better) underdogs have covered just 31 of 85 off a straight-up loss, when playing their final road game vs. foes off a win.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Pelicans were blown out by 22 points when these teams last met.  New Orleans is playing its final home game of the season tonight, and it's well-motivated given that it is in 8th place, but can still finish as high as 5th (or as low as 9th).  The Knicks, on the other hand, are locked into the 5th seed in the Eastern conference.  For technical support, consider that NBA teams favored by more than 4 points in their final home game have covered 67% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat.  Take New Orleans.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Nets reside in 6th place, and need to win to ensure they stay ahead of 7th-seeded Miami (and avoid the dreaded Play-in round).  Orlando, of course, has long since been eliminated from the Playoff hunt.  The Magic did, however, defeat Brooklyn, 119-106, less than two weeks ago.  I look for the Nets to avenge that loss, as they're 74-33 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a 13-point (or worse) defeat.  Take Brooklyn.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  This game means nothing to the Sixers, but a lot to the Hawks, who sit in 8th (but just 1 game ahead of 9th-seeded Toronto).  Thus, Philly's Joel Embiid is not expected to suit up, and others may be in street clothes, as well.  The Sixers are a poor 16-36 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points vs. winning foes.  Take Atlanta to blow out Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.  This game will be played at the Spurs' "home away from home" -- Austin, Texas.  The Spurs were blown out by the Phoenix Suns, 115-94, on Tuesday.  But we'll take them to bounce back tonight in this revenge game vs. Portland, as the Blazers blew them out by 20 points in the previous meeting.  San Antonio is 21-12 ATS as a home favorite when playing with revenge.  And it's 36-10-2 ATS off a loss by 18+ points, if it was favored by less than 8 points in its current game (including 21-3-2 ATS at home).  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavs are locked into the #4 spot in the Eastern conference, so they'll have little incentive tonight.  Orlando is outside of the playoff picture, but is still competing hard.  The Magic are 45-31-3 ATS this season, including 9-1 ATS their last 10.  This is Orlando's final home game of the season, and it falls into a 94-54 system of mine which plays on certain teams in their last home game.  Lay the points with the Magic.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Clippers come into tonight's game off a 122-114 loss to the Pelicans four days ago, while the Lakers won, 135-133, in overtime at Utah last night.  We'll lay the points with the well-rested Clippers tonight, as the Lakers are 45-71 ATS off a win, when playing on the road vs. a foe off a loss.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  There's no doubt the Mavericks' acquisition of Kyrie Irving has not yielded the intended benefits.  Still, hope remains that the team can qualify for the Play-in round.  But to do so, it will have to win at least two of its remaining three games (but likely all three).  And even a 3-0 mark might not be good enough to pass Oklahoma City.  The good news, though, for the Mavericks is that all three games are at home and they will be favored in each.  We'll lay the points tonight with Dallas, as it's 150-95-6 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off a win.  Take the Mavs.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies won, 119-109, vs. Portland last night to sew up the league's best home record this season (35-6).  Unfortunately, they've been dreadful on the road this season, with a 15-23 SU and 13-23-2 ATS record, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog vs. winning teams.  Even worse, when not favored by more than 1 point on the road vs. winning teams, the Grizzlies have lost their last 15 games, straight-up (1-13-1 ATS).  Lay the points with New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bulls play this game with revenge from a 112-100 defeat.  And Chicago is 7-1 ATS this season when playing with revenge from a 12-point (or worse) defeat.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee falls into a negative 37% ATS system of mine which fades certain teams late in the season off double-digit wins.  We'll grab the points with the Bulls.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Lakers are making a final push for the Playoffs, and enter tonight's game on a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS streak.  This is a far cry from when these two teams met earlier in the season.  Utah took two meetings from the Lakers on November 4 and November 7 when the Lakers were in the midst of a 2-10 SU/ATS start to the season, while the Jazz were in the midst of a 10-3 SU/ATS start.  But now, it's the Jazz who are floundering, as they've lost six of their last seven games to fall out of the Playoff picture (if the season ended today).  The Lakers are 55-31 ATS as a revenge-minded road favorite.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are a miserable 59-92 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 11-32 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  With Houston in off a 134-109 blowout loss to the Lakers, and playing its final home game of the season, we'll take it to bounce back tonight.  Take Houston + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Portland.  The Blazers upset Memphis here, 122-112, when these teams last met.  We'll take the Grizzlies to avenge that loss, as they're 33-14 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset home loss earlier in the season, including 17-4 ATS as a favorite.  Lay the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs minus 1.5 goals over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Columbus' defense has been a sieve, lately, as it's given up 74 goals over its 14 previous games.  That doesn't bode well for the Jackets tonight.  And especially not against a revenge-minded Maple Leafs team (Columbus defeated Toronto, 4-3, when these two teams last met).  Even worse:  the Leafs lost, 5-2, here at home to Detroit, on Sunday.  That was Toronto's 2nd straight home loss.  And it was its 2nd loss in its last three games, overall.  The Leafs, though, are 17-3 this season if they had lost at least 2 of their three previous games.  And they're also 12-1 at home following a loss by 2+ goals. We'll lay the 1.5 goals tonight, and look for a bounce-back blowout win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Connecticut.  The line in this game opened at -6, but quickly spiked higher.  By my math, it's too high.  We'll grab the points with Brian Dutcher's Aztecs, as teams seeded #5 (or worse) have cashed 69% in the NCAA Tournament as underdogs from the Elite Eight round forward.  That bodes well for San Diego State in this Championship game.  As does the fact that SDSU is 62-38 ATS off a point spread loss when playing an opponent off a win  Grab the points with the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Denver.  The Warriors will seek to avenge a 17-point loss here to the Nuggets two months ago.  We'll grab the points, as the Warriors are 73-46 ATS as an underdog when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss, including 9-0 ATS their last nine.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Bucks lost by 41 points to Boston on Thursday.  We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as Milwaukee is 31-15-1 ATS as a favorite off a home defeat, including 7-0-1 ATS its last eight.  Take the Bucks.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Minnesota.  The Blazers come into this afternoon's game off 3 massive blowout losses to New Orleans (124-90), Sacramento (120-80) and Sacramento, again (138-114).  We'll take the points with Portland, as NBA teams off three straight 20-point defeats have covered 60.7% since 1990.  Take Portland.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over the New Orleans Pelicans.  We played against Los Angeles last night, and got the $$$ with the Memphis Grizzlies, in a 108-94 victory.  We'll switch gears and take the Clippers tonight, as they're 44-29-1 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, including 11-4 ATS when playing without rest.  Even better:  the Pelicans upset the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, 107-88.  But Los Angeles is a solid 121-60-4 ATS on the road against foes off upset wins, if the Clippers were not favored by more than five points.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Suns were our preseason pick (at 13-1 odds) to win the NBA title, and they are well-positioned to do it, now that Kevin Durant has returned to the lineup.  Durant made his home debut for his new team in Wednesday's 7-point win over the Timberwolves.  Now, the Suns will look for their 4th straight win, overall, as they'll host the Western Conference's #1 seed, Denver.  Phoenix is a solid 76-52 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Additionally, Denver has covered just 5 of 16 road games when getting more than 3 points, and it's 17-39 ATS when getting more than 4 points from Phoenix.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The T-Wolves have been installed as a small favorite in this critical Western Conference match-up.  Minnesota (39-38) sits a half-game ahead of the Lakers (38-38), as they battle down the stretch for Playoff (or Play-in round) positioning.  The Timberwolves have been horrid as a favorite when they've owned a .500 (or better) record, as they've gone 7-19 ATS.  The Lakers lost 4 weeks ago at home to Minnesota, but are 13-4 ATS their last 17 when playing with revenge from a loss suffered earlier in the season.  Take L.A.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back meetings here, on Beale Street, between these teams.  The Clippers won, 141-132, on Wednesday, as a road underdog.  We'll take the Grizzlies in the revenge role, as they're 38-21-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Celts suffered a blowout loss to the Washington Wizards on Tuesday, so they'll look to bounce back tonight.  Boston is a solid 27-8 ATS in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 4 points; 14-4 ATS as a road underdog; and 35-15 ATS its last 50 vs. Milwaukee.  Grab the points with the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Ja Morant didn't suit up in last night's game here, at home, vs. Orlando.  But Damichael Cole -- the Grizzlies beat writer for the Memphis Commercial Appeal -- has reported that Morant will play tonight.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Memphis.  The Grizzlies have now won 12 straight home games, 3 shy of their franchise record, and are 43-20-2 ATS at home their last 65.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings between these clubs.  Chicago won by 10, 118-108, on Sunday, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  The Lakers are 52-32 ATS as revenge-minded road favorites, while the Bulls are 45-83 ATS at home vs. Western Conference foes off an ATS loss.  Take the Lakers.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Brooklyn.  The Nets have dropped six of their last seven, and they're now laying double-digits to the Houston Rockets.  Admittedly, Houston is a horrible team.  But I can't get behind Brooklyn as a big favorite.  The Nets are 11-28 ATS their last 39 when laying more than 9 points, including 3-17 ATS vs. sub-.309 teams.  Take Houston + the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden St Warriors minus the points over the New Orleans Pelicans.  Golden State comes into tonight's game off a rare home loss, as it fell, 99-96, on Sunday to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  We'll lay the points with Steve Kerr's men tonight, as they're 81-50 ATS off a straight-up loss, when playing an unrested foe, including 59-33-3 ATS at home.  And the Pelicans are 4-14 ATS on the road off a win, if playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Finally, over the past 10 years, the Pelicans are a woeful 2-20 straight-up, and 7-14-1 ATS at Golden State, including 0-8-1 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +10.5 points.  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over the North Texas Mean Green.  The Big 10 Conference has been dominant in the NIT Tourney since 1990, and especially at the 2nd round forward, where it's gone 54-33-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  We'll grab the points with the Badgers, as they're 34-13 ATS as a non-conference underdog/PK since 2004, and 9-0 ATS the past two years away from home when playing a non-conference foe, and not favored by 4+ points.  Meanwhile North Texas is 2-4 ATS vs. Big 10 opponents.  And Conference USA teams are a horrible 7-24 ATS away from home vs. Big 10 foes when not getting 14+ points.  Take Wisconsin + the points in this NIT semi-final game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  These two teams met earlier this month in Minneapolis, and the Wolves upset the Kings, 138-134, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  The NBA season has less than 10 games left, and both of these Western Conference foes are locked into tight battles for playoff positioning.  The Kings sit two games behind 2nd-seeded Memphis with eight to play, while Minnesota is in 7th place, a half-game behind 6th-seeded Golden State, and a half-game ahead of 8th-seeded New Orleans.  Last night, the T-Wolves upset the Warriors in San Francisco.  Not many teams go into Golden State's building and win.  And even less follow a victory up with another victory their next game.  Indeed, teams off wins at Golden State are 32-49-5 ATS, including 1-8 ATS their last nine.  Likewise, teams off a win over the Warriors (regardless of venue) are a poor 1-12 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Sacramento also falls into 150-70 and 488-347 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Boston Celtics.  The Spurs may be bereft of talent, but they still compete hard.  Today, they're playing the 4th of a 4-game road trip against a Celtics team which only beat them by 5 points earlier this season (as a 15-point favorite).  The Spurs are once again a massive underdog vs. Boston, which enters off back to back SU/ATS wins over Sacramento and Indiana.  We'll grab the points, as San Antonio is 90-58-2 ATS on the road vs. Eastern Conference foes that are off an ATS Win or Tie in their previous game.  And Boston is 9-20-2 ATS as a favorite following back-to-back covers as a favorite.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets blew out the Miami Heat last night, while the Magic were off for the 2nd straight night after upsetting New York here, on Thursday, 111-106.  We'll go against Brooklyn, as it's 14-25 ATS when playing without rest off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Magic have quietly covered five straight games to move their season ATS record to 41-30-3 ATS.  And home favorites off 5+ ATS wins have covered 59% since 1990 in the final 10 games of the regular season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets.  The Mavs lost a game they really couldn't afford to lose on Friday when Charlotte went into American Airlines Center and stunned the Mavs, 117-109, as a 15.5-point underdog.  That was the biggest upset in the NBA this season.  Dallas is now in the precarious position of being 11th in the Western Conference standings, so it has to have a strong record over its last 8 games if it is to supplant any of the T-Wolves, Lakers, Pelicans or Thunder for a Play-in berth.  We'll lay the points with the Mavs in this revenge spot, as NBA teams have covered 59% on the road if they were playing back to back games against the same opponent, and failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points in the previous game.  Moreover, the Hornets are 8-15-2 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe, while Dallas is a super 58-29-2 ATS on the road when in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans blew out the Clippers, 112-91, in the last meeting.  We'll lay the points with Los Angeles, as New Orleans is 0-12 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points vs. a revenge-minded foe which New Orleans defeated earlier in the season.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.