Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers -1.5 goals over the Philadelphia Flyers.  Rangers fans really hate seeing their team lose at home these days.  Even more, they hate seeing them get shut out at home by their cross-town rivals, which is what happened on Friday, here, at Madison Square Garden, when the Islanders came in and blanked the home team, 3-0.  That had to hurt, especially considering the Rangers are battling the Penguins for second place in their division (and the home ice advantage which comes with it).  The Flyers on the other hand have phoned in the season.  They were bad before the trade deadline but then they got worse when they traded their only true franchise player -- Captain Claude Giroux -- to the Panthers.  In five games since the trade, Philly is 1-4 and has been out-scored by a combined 21-11 in those four losses.  Sure, there's a lot of great history between these two teams and they've seen many exciting and close battles in the past, but tonight does not figure to be one.  Philly is 9-19 in the last 28 trips to New York and the favorite is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings.  Take the Rangers minus 1.5 goals.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  These two teams are tied at 40-37 with five games remaining.  So, this game will go a long way toward determining each team's playoff seed.  Atlanta has won and covered its last four games, while Brooklyn has lost its last three in a row to the point spread.  And that's key, as home teams have cashed 65% since 1990 in the final five regular season games, if they were on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  Even better:  Atlanta plays this game with revenge from 2 losses to Brooklyn earlier in the season.  And winning teams, off back to back wins, have cashed 65% since 1990 as home underdogs when playing with double-revenge.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Villanova.  We played on each of these teams in the last round, and easily got the $$$ with Kansas -5.5 over Miami (76-50) and Villanova +2.5 over Houston (50-44).  We'll lay the points with the #1-seeded Jayhawks on Saturday, and go against the #2-seeded Wildcats off their upset win.  Indeed, NCAA Tournament #2 seeds are a woeful 0-12-2 ATS off an upset tourney win, if they were an underdog of 6 or less points in their previous game.  And NCAA teams off an upset win, have also gone just 28-49-2 ATS vs. #1 seeds, if they weren't getting 9+ points.  Even better:  teams (like Kansas) off blowout NCAA Tourney wins by more than 25 points have gone 56-35-4 ATS when priced from +1 to -10 points.  Finally, the Jayhawks are a fantastic 52-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins.  Lay the points with Kansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the New Orleans Pelicans.  It's "do-or-die" for Anthony Davis & Co.  The Lakers will likely have to go 4-2 or 5-1 over their final 6 games in order to leapfrog San Antonio for the #10 seed in the Western conference.  But it will be a tall task, as the Lakers have road games vs. the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets among their final six games.  So, this game is a virtual "must-win."  We'll take Los Angeles, as it falls into a 133-95 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, LeBron James' teams are 19-11 ATS their last 30 off 4+ losses.  And they've cashed 61% in his career as a home favorite off back to back losses, when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.  The Spurs come into tonight's game off a heart-breaking loss to Memphis.  But the Spurs are still 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games, and currently reside in 10th place in the Western conference, which would earn them a spot in the Play-in tournament.  San Antonio also owns the tie-breaker over 11th-seeded Los Angeles, and has the easier remaining schedule, to boot.  This will be the first of back-to-back home games vs. the injury-riddled Trail Blazers, so it should be two games in the win column for the Spurs.  When the Spurs and Blazers met nine days ago in Portland, it was a blowout from the start, as the Spurs sprinted out to a 45-27 lead after 1 quarter en route to a 37-point win.  Unfortunately for Portland, two of its starters in that game (Trendon Watford, Justise Winslow) are now injured and won't suit up tonight.  The Spurs are 50-0 SU and 35-14-1 ATS when favored by more than 13 points off a straight-up loss.  Lay the points with San Antonio.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  The last time Dallas had home court advantage in the opening Playoff round (i.e., seeded 4th or better) was in 2011, when it won the NBA Championship.  So, the Mavericks are on a mission to earn a high seed, and currently are 2 games ahead of Denver and Utah for the all-important home court advantage in round 1.  Since New Year's Eve, Dallas is 32-11 SU and 28-15 ATS.  And it's 10-1 ATS its last 11 (and 24-9-2 ATS its last 35) on the road when playing with revenge.  With the Mavs, indeed, playing with revenge from a 6-point loss to Washington earlier in the season, we'll lay the points tonight.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Los Angeles.  We played against the Jazz on Tuesday night, and were rewarded with an upset win by the LA Clippers.  That was Utah's fifth straight defeat.  But all four were on the road.  Tonight's game is back in Salt Lake City, where the Jazz have gone 142-97-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses when not favored by 13.5 points.  Additionally, the Jazz were defeated twice by Los Angeles earlier this season, and fall into several of my better NBA revenge systems, with records of 87-48, 58-32 and 155-98 ATS.  Finally, NBA teams with a win percentage > .529 have cashed 63% at home off 5+ losses, when not getting more than 2 points.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have certainly been impressive in this year's NIT Tournament.  They kicked things off with a 74-62 win over Alcorn State, and then followed that up with blowouts of Oregon (75-60), Wake Forest (67-52) and Washington State (72-56).  But off those four double-digit wins, we'll fade Texas A&M and grab the points with Xavier.  Indeed, since 1990, NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the non-conference, post-season tournaments when favored by less than 16 points (or PK) off four straight wins by 12+ points.  That doesn't bode well for the Aggies tonight.  Nor does the fact that Xavier is a powerful 43-18-3 ATS as an underdog after covering the spread by 6+ points in its previous game, including 14-1 ATS its last 15 post-season games.  Take the Musketeers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Golden State.  The Suns come into tonight's match-up on an 8-game win streak, and refuse to take the pedal off the metal.  Phoenix has won its last eight games by 29, 16, 17, 27, 3, 9, 10 and 10 points for a 7-1 ATS record.  We'll lay the points with the Suns tonight, as they're 18-0 straight-up, and 17-1 ATS as a favorite when playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the year!  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Memphis.  San Antonio has passed the Lakers for the 10th overall seed in the Western conference (the two teams are tied at 31-44, but the Spurs own the tie-breaker).  So, this game is hugely critical for the Spurs' aspiration to reach the Play-in round.  In contrast, this game has relatively little meaning for Memphis, as it is virtually locked into the #2 position, as it is 5 games ahead of Golden State, with just six to play.  The Spurs lost at Memphis by 13 points four weeks ago.  But the Spurs are 36-21-1 ATS at home in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Take San Antonio.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Boston.  With just 12 days left in the season, there's a 4-team logjam at the top of the Eastern conference.  Miami sits in first, a half-game ahead of Milwaukee, 1 game ahead of Boston, and 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia.  So, tonight's game will go a long way toward determining the eventual Playoff seeds.  We'll grab the points with Miami, as it is 16-6 ATS as an underdog this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes with a .610 (or better) win percentage.  Take the Heat.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Utah Jazz.  Paul George has been upgraded to 'probable' to play tonight, and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the homestanding Clippers.  George (24.7 ppg; 7.1 rpg; 5.5 apg) has been absent since December 22, and the Clippers have faltered badly.  With George in the lineup this season, the Clippers actually have had a winning record; without him, they haven't.  He missed both games earlier this season at Utah, and the Jazz blew out Los Angeles in those two games.  But this game is at home, where the Clippers are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings, with the average victory by 14 points.  Utah is an awful 2-18 SU and 3-16-1 ATS on the road when the Jazz weren't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers + the points over St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies have no doubt been impressive in their run to Madison Square Garden.  St. Bonaventure was a #5 seed when the bracket was released, and has won three road games (against Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia) to reach this semi-final round.  The Bonnies were underdogs in each of those three games.  But now they are favored. And St. Bonaventure is a wallet-breaking 17-26 ATS as a favorite off an upset win.  So, we'll happily take the points with Xavier.  Moreover, since 1990, NIT Tourney teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 33%.  That bodes well for Xavier tonight.  As does the fact that the Musketeers have covered 77% since 1990 away from home vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Take the underdog Musketeers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:00 pm, in The Basketball Classic, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over Southern Utah.  We played on the Thunderbirds on Saturday vs. Portland, and got the $$$ in a 77-66 blowout win.  But that game was at home, in Cedar City; tonight's game is on the road, in Fresno.  And Southern Utah is a soft 19-28 ATS away from home as an underdog of +8 (or less) points.  It's true that Fresno has failed to cover the spread in its two tournament games (vs. Eastern Washington and Youngstown).  But NCAA teams off back to back ATS losses have covered 59.3% in the post-season since 1990 when favored by more than 5 points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Fresno St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston.  After the Spurs upset New Orleans on Saturday, and the Los Angeles Lakers were defeated by the same Pelicans team yesterday, the Spurs are in prime position to pass the Lakers for the #10 seed, and a spot in the Play-in round.  San Antonio currently sits just one game behind Los Angeles with eight to play.  But the Spurs have the far easier schedule, and also own the tie-breaker.  Of San Antonio's final eight games, three are against teams outside the Playoff picture (including this game vs. Houston tonight), while the Lakers have just one game against a non-contending team.  We'll lay the points with the Spurs, who are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games.  Meanwhile, Houston is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five vs. foes in the Playoff chase, and 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS its last 19 vs. such foes.  Finally, the Spurs are 17-6-1 ATS on the division road, including 9-1 ATS off a win in their previous game, while Houston is 6-14 ATS at home vs. division rivals.  Lay the points with San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento.  The Heat are in a major swoon right now, as they've lost four straight games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven straight.  This downturn has brought Miami back to the rest of the Eastern conference pack, and there is currently a four-way tie in the Loss column, as each of Boston (47-28), Miami (47-28), Milwaukee (46-28) and Philadelphia (46-28) have 28 losses.  The good news for the Heat tonight is that they're relatively healthy, with just G Tyler Herro (20.8 ppg) questionable to play, due to a knee injury.  In contrast, Sacramento will be without De'Aaron Fox (23.2 ppg) and Domantas Sabonis (18.9 ppg).  Miami is 56-28 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win, including 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 when playing an opponent with a .420 (or worse) win percentage.  Take Miami minus the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Boston.  The Raptors will be at an advantage tonight at home vs. an unrested Boston squad which had to play on Sunday vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves.  Toronto is an awesome 32-9 ATS as a home favorite in the regular season vs. Atlantic division rivals, including a perfect 10-0 ATS vs. .572 (or better) foes.  Take Toronto.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Phoenix.  The Sixers play this game with revenge from a 5-point upset loss to the Suns last month.  We'll grab the points, as Philly is 48-29 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Even better:  the Suns enter this evening's contest off back to back upset wins.  But .745 (or better) NBA teams off back to back upsets have covered just 20 of 60 home games when favored by 3+ points.  Take Philly + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins minus 1.5 goals over Detroit.  The Red Wings lost in overtime, 2-1, to Tampa Bay yesterday.  And that defeat extended Detroit's poor record as an underdog of +180 (or more) to 1-13 this season.  Detroit did cover the 1.5 goals on the puckline yesterday, but it's still just 3-11 in those 14 games on the puckline.  We'll go against Detroit in Pittsburgh today, as the Penguins will be looking to bounce back off back to back road losses to the Sabres and Rangers.  Detroit is a poor 7-35 on the road when the total is 6+ goals, while the Pens are 36-18 when playing with revenge.  Lay the 1.5 goals with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The #1-seeded Jayhawks come into today's game off back to back point spread losses to Creighton and Providence, while Miami has covered all 3 of its Tourney games.  The good news, though, for Bill Self's Jayhawks is that they're an awesome 46-4 SU and 36-13-1 ATS at home, or on neutral courts off back to back ATS losses, if they weren't favored by more than 12 points.  And if the game was a post-season game, then our 36-13-1 stat zooms to 10-1, 91% ATS.  That bodes well for Kansas this afternoon.   As does the fact that Kansas is 51-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins.  Take the Jayhawks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Houston.  This is a rematch of a game played last night -- also here, in Portland.  The Rockets blew out the Blazers, 125-106, but we'll take the home dog to get the victory tonight.  Portland is a solid 44-15 ATS in non-division games when priced from -2.5 to +6, if it owned a W/L percentage less than .380.  And the Blazers are also 98-63 ATS as a home dog of < 5 points.  Meanwhile, Houston is a woeful 18-35 ATS as a road favorite vs. losing foes, if the Rockets won/covered as a road favorite in their previous game.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Miami.  Our preseason futures pick on the Nets to win the NBA title received some welcome news this week when the State of New York lifted the vaccine mandate for pro athletes and performers.  Now, G Kyrie Irving will be allowed to play at home, in Brooklyn, in the Playoffs.  There are still a few regular season games to be played, and the Nets are jockeying for playoff positioning as the season winds down.  The eighth-seeded Nets lost at home to the #1-seeded Heat, 113-107, earlier this month.  We'll take Kevin Durant and Co. to avenge that loss, as Brooklyn is 41-14 ATS on the road when playing with revenge against an opponent with a better record.  Take the Nets minus the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Milwaukee.  Memphis lost at Milwaukee by 12 points earlier this season.  We'll take the Grizzlies in this rematch, as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing with revenge from a road loss.  And they're 27-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge, if they weren't favored by more than 2 points.  Take Memphis.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over Chicago.  The Bulls, Cavaliers and Raptors are locked into a tight battle in the Eastern Conference playoff race.  Chicago sits in 5th place, while Cleveland and Toronto are tied for 6th, just 1 game behind.  This race is important because the team which finishes with the worst record will be seeded 7th, and forced to win a game in the Play-in Round to make the playoffs.  We'll take the homestanding Cavaliers, as Chicago is 5-18-1 ATS its last 24 road games, including 0-9 ATS its last nine.  And Cleveland is 21-12-2 ATS its last 35 home games.  Take the Cavs.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats + the points over Houston.  I have all the respect for the job Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, but I'm going to take the points with Villanova in this Elite 8 matchup.  The Wildcats are an impressive 35-17 straight-up, and 35-13-4 ATS in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3.5 (or less) points, including 14-6-4 ATS as an underdog.  It's true that Houston has won and covered 6 straight games.  But NCAA Tourney favorites (or PK) off 5+ wins/covers are a soft 15-27 ATS.  Take Villanova + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, in the quarterfinals of The Basketball Classic tournament, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Portland.  Southern Utah is at home, and we'll lay the points with the T-Birds, and fade the Pilots, as Portland is a nasty 26-57-2 ATS as an underdog of 14 or less points (or PK) when playing a .640 (or better) opponent.  And, since 1990, Big Sky conference teams have covered 57% at home in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, while West Coast Conference teams have covered just 36% on the road in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with Southern Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans blew out San Antonio, 124-91, eight days ago in the Alamo City.  We'll take the Spurs to avenge that defeat, as San Antone is 39-18 ATS when playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat.  Take the Spurs + the points.

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning minus 1.5 goals over Detroit.  Tampa Bay has been installed as a big favorite this afternoon vs. the Red Wings, and that spells trouble for Detroit.  Indeed, the Wings are 1-12 this season as an underdog of +180 or more.  And they've only come within a single goal in two of those 13 games.  We'll lay the 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay, as the Lightning 58-26 (+21.3 net games) off a loss, including 7-1 off 3+ losses.  Take the Lightning minus 1.5 goals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche minus 1.5 goals over Philadelphia.  Colorado lost 3-1 here, at home, to Vancouver, on Wednesday.  Still, with 18 games to go, the Avalanche have a league-leading 95 points.  So, they're in a great position heading into the final month.  Last night, the Flyers snapped their 13-game road losing streak with a 5-2 victory at St. Louis.  But we'll look for Philly to revert to its losing ways tonight.  The Flyers gave up seven goals when these two teams met in Philadelphia earlier this season.  And the Flyers are an awful 1-9 on the road when playing with revenge from a loss by 2+ goals.  Additionally, the Avalanche are 16-1 when playing their 3rd home game in a row, and 6-1 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game.  Take Colorado minus 1.5 goals.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Dallas.  The T-Wolves lost a road game to Dallas just four days ago, 110-108.  And, then, it also lost its next game, here at home, to the Phoenix Suns.  We'll take Minnesota to avenge that defeat against Dallas, as it falls into a 126-69 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winning teams off back to back losses.  Even better:  Dallas has covered just 34 of 94 non-division road games, if it was off back to back wins, and its foes was off back to back losses.  And the Mavs are 11-32 ATS off a win, when playing a .333 (or better) revenge-minded foe.  Finally, the T-Wolves are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven home games, and 7-1-1 ATS their last nine home games when playing with revenge.  Take the Timberwolves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:39 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders over Duke.  The Red Raiders have the best adjusted defensive efficiency numbers in NCAA basketball this season, while Duke ranks #45 in that metric (of the 358 NCAA teams).  And, of the 16 remaining teams, the Blue Devils' defensive efficiency numbers rank #12, ahead of only Providence, Michigan, Purdue and Miami (yes, even lowly Saint Peter's ranks higher than Duke in this metric).  For the season, the Red Raiders have given up just 60.1 ppg, while Duke allows 67.2 ppg (for a differential of 7.05).  And top 2-seeded teams (like Duke), that give up more than 5 ppg on defense than their opponent, and are installed as an underdog (or PK), have covered just 21.4% in the NCAA Tournament over the past 32 years.  That doesn't bode well for Mike Krzyzewski's men tonight.  Nor does the fact that Duke tallied 85 points in their victory over Michigan State, as Duke's a woeful 15-35-2 ATS after scoring more than 78 points.  Finally, Texas Tech is 15-3 ATS its last 18 vs. .571 (or better) foes, while Duke is 1-7 ATS its last eight vs. .571 (or better) opposition.  Take Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns are 59-14, yet are an underdog tonight against the 43-30 Nuggets.  We'll take Denver tonight, as winning NBA teams have gone 276-214 ATS in the final 10 games of a season when favored against an opponent with a better record.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies upset Brooklyn last night, as a home dog, while the Pacers were upset at home by Sacramento.  We'll fade Memphis as teams off upset home wins have covered just 46 of 126 games against foes off upset home losses, if our upsetter wasn't getting more than 10 points in its current game.  Take Indiana + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are 10-16-1 ATS their last 27 on the road, and will face a revenge-minded Raptors squad which will look to avenge its 8-point loss to the Cavs earlier this month.  Toronto is 7-2 its last nine with playing with revenge, and also falls into a 152-97 ATS revenge system of mine.  Additionally, the Raptors were blown out by 14 points on Monday, in Chicago.  But Toronto is 24-13 ATS off a loss by 12+ points.  Take Toronto minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars come into tonight's home game off back to back SU/ATS home wins over Long Beach St. and Northern Iowa.  BYU was favored by 5 against the Panthers, and that SU/ATS win extended BYU's ATS record as a single-digit home favorite (or PK) to 81-42-1 ATS, including 8-2 ATS in the post-season, and 57-23 ATS if its opponent's offensive avg. was less than 76.5 ppg.  Even better:  Washington St. is a poor 61-93-3 ATS as a single-digit road underdog (or PK).  Lay the points with BYU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Phoenix Suns.  The T-Wolves are on a red-hot 10-2 SU/ATS run, and will look to move to within a half-game of the Denver Nuggets for the 6th seed (which would enable them to avoid the play-in round).  Minnesota's 6-0 SU/ATS its last six home games, and have won them by an average of 26.8 ppg.  And those six games include wins over Golden State (129-114) and Milwaukee (138-119).  The T-Wolves are 9-0-2 ATS at home when the Over/Under line is greater than 230 points, 7-0-1 ATS their last seven revenge meetings at home, and they also fall into a 95-36 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Timberwolves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Golden State.  The Warriors are playing the 2nd game of the back-to-back, and will sit Draymond Green and Klay Thompson tonight.  Even worse:  Steph Curry was already sidelined with a left foot injury.  So, the Warriors will be a shell of themselves tonight against a Miami Heat team looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of the 76ers.  Miami has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games.  But the Heat are 50-25 ATS off 3 ATS losses.  And they play this game with revenge from a 7-point loss in San Francisco.  And that defeat has triggered a great 144-78 ATS revenge system of mine that goes against certain unrested foes.  Lay the points with Miami.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs minus 1.5 goals over New Jersey.  The Leafs have had 3 days off following their loss at Nashville, while the Devils played last night (and won) against the Rangers.  We'll take the home team on the puck line, as Toronto is 7-1 its last eight on the puck line vs. the Devils, and 7-0 straight-up its last seven vs. New Jersey -- mostly by blowout -- by scores of 6-1, 7-2, 4-2, 5-4, 7-4, 6-4, and 7-1.  Toronto is also 15-6 at home when the total is 6 goals or more, and 12-6 when playing with at least 3 days of rest.  And it's 14-1 at home off a road game.  Meanwhile, the Devils are a poor 26-48 (minus 9.7 net games) when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And they're 21-40 on the road when the total was 6 (or more) goals.  Lay the 1.5 goals with the Maple Leafs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the NC Wilmington Seahawks + the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Blue Raiders come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Boston U. (76-46) and Abilene Christian (85-69).  But those two blowouts have triggered a negative 11-47-2 ATS system of mine which goes against certain tourney teams off back to back blowouts.  Additionally, since 1990, underdogs are a solid 57% ATS in tourney title games if both teams enter off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We'll grab the points with NC Wilmington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Xavier.  The 20-13 Musketeers won SU/ATS vs. Florida, 72-56, on Sunday.  But Xavier has covered 2 in a row just once in their past 22 games, and are 15-18 ATS on the season.  That doesn't bode well against the 19-16 SU/21-13 ATS Commodores, who are 6-1 ATS their last seven tourney games, and 11-3 ATS their last 14, overall.  The Musketeers are a poor 23-45-2 ATS as a favorite of -2+ points, including 1-17-1 ATS their last 19 vs. foes with an ATS win percentage > .534.  Take Vanderbilt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over New York.  Last season, the Hawks knocked the Knicks out of the Playoffs.  This year, the Knicks have won all three meetings, thus far.  We'll take the Hawks, who were upset by New Orleans, 117-112, in their last game.  And triple-revenge-minded road favorites have covered 71% since 1990, if they were off an upset loss in their previous game.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Orlando.  The Warriors were upset at home in their two previous games by Boston and San Antonio.  But we'll take Golden State to bounce back on the road in Orlando.  The Warriors are 22-6 ATS off back to back upset defeats, including 12-0 ATS if their previous game was at home.  Meanwhile, the Magic are 0-13-2 ATS as a home dog vs. non-division foes off back to back losses.  Lay the points with Golden STate.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears + the points over NC Wilmington.  The Seahawks are 25-9 this season, and have been installed as a favorite in this semi-final game.  Unfortunately, favorites have been poor in the CBI Tourney, including 26.3% ATS if they covered the spread by more than 7 points away from home in their previous game.  Grab the points with Northern Colorado.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over St. Bonaventure.  This will be the 5th-seeded Bonnies' 3rd straight road game in this NIT Tournament.  We'll fade St. Bonaventure, as an underdog vs. the #6-seeded Cavaliers, as higher-seeded underdogs have covered just 32% in the NIT Tourney off back to back NIT wins.  Additionally, the Cavaliers are 82-61 ATS at home in Charlottesville.  Lay the points with Virginia.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Minnesota.  The Mavericks have lost their last two games SU/ATS, while Minnesota is 4-0 SU/ATS its last four.  We'll take the Mavs, as they've cashed 69% at home since 1990 off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Mavs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Ohio University Bobcats over Abilene Christian.  Ohio won its first round game, 65-64, vs. Rice, but failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite.  We played against Ohio in that game, but will lay the points with it tonight.   Key stat:  Ohio is 52-26 ATS as a favorite of less than 14 points, if it was off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Bobcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Toronto.  Chicago has dropped its last 3 games, and eight of its past 10 (1-9 ATS).  However, seven of those 10 games were on the road, where Chicago has gone 16-19 this season.  At home, it's been a different story, as Chicago is 25-10 SU and 23-12 ATS.  The Bulls are also 65% ATS since 1990 at home when not getting 4+ points, if they're off back to back road losses.  Take Chicago.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans come into this game off back to back upset wins on the road over San Antonio and Dallas.  Unfortunately, New Orleans has covered just 21.4% since 1990 as an underdog of +1.5 (or more) points off back to back upset road wins.  Take Charlotte.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over TCU.  Jamie Dixon's Horned Frogs stunned Seton Hall on Friday, with a 69-42 upset win.  Unfortunately, they are now saddled with the tall task of defeating Arizona, the nation's 2nd best team.  The Wildcats have not lost a home or neutral court game all season (23-0), and they're 74-51 ATS at home or on a neutral court vs. non-conference foes, if their opponent was off a SU win.  It's true that TCU is 19-11 ATS on the season, which is the 3rd best ATS record of any team remaining in the tournament.  But NCAA teams with a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, off a point spread cover by 13+ points, have gone 93-154-6 ATS in non-conference games as an underdog of +7.5 to +18.5 points when matched up against a foe off a point spread defeat.  We'll fade TCU tonight.  Lay the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Notre Dame.  The Red Raiders scored the most points (97) in the opening round of this NCAA tournament, when they laid waste to Montana State in a 35-point victory.  And that bodes well for Texas Tech here, as college basketball tourney teams are currently riding a 35-14-2 ATS run after scoring 95+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over North Texas.  The Over/Under line in this game is 110.5 points.  And that number is the lowest Over/Under line of any of the 5436 games played this season!  Virginia has excelled in games with low Over/Under lines, and especially on the road, where it is 34-17 ATS in games with O/U lines of 130 or less.  The Mean Green, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in 2022 in games with O/U lines of 120 or less.  Grab the points with Virginia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Michigan State.  The Blue Devils have lost five straight games "in Vegas," including their round 1 game vs. Fullerton State, where they won by 17, as an 18.5-point favorite.  We'll look for Duke to get back into the win column -- at least where the point spread is concerned -- as ACC teams are 89-57-5 ATS as a favorite of 13 or less points when they were on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  And Duke is also 39-25-1 ATS their last 65 off 3+ ATS losses (and 15-8-1 ATS their last 24 off 4+ ATS losses).  Take Duke minus the points.

At 5 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the North Carolina-Greensboro minus the points over Boston U.  The Terriers have been poor in the post-season, including 5-14 ATS when the line was 7 points or less.  It's true that UNC-Greensboro is on a 4-game ATS losing streak.  But the Spartans are an awesome 25-9 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their three previous games.  Take North Carolina Greensboro minus the points.

At 3 pm, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars have been dreadful as a road underdog priced between +2.5 and +10 points, as they're 21-50-3 ATS.  Take SMU minus the points.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over the Houston Cougars.  Illinois won, but failed to cover its point spread on Friday, while Houston blew out UAB to reward its bettors.  But off those two results, we'll grab the points with the underdog this afternoon.  Indeed, the Big 10 Conference has excelled over the years as underdogs in the NCAA tournament, and especially when getting 5 or less points, as it's 55-30-4 ATS in this role.  Even better:  the Illini are a superb 110-64-5 ATS off a point spread loss when playing an opponent off a point spread win.  Take Illinois + the points.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Memphis.  The Zags didn't put #16 seed Georgia State away until the later stages of the game.  And that might lead some to think Gonzaga is vulnerable this evening.  I'm not one of those folks, as I believe Gonzaga will win the title this year.  We'll lay the points, as they fall into 54-23 and 85-33 ATS systems of mine which plays on certain #1-seeded teams.  Take Gonzaga minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies upset UConn, 70-63, as a 6.5-point underdog, while Arkansas won, but failed to cover the spread in its 75-71 win over Vermont.  We'll go against New Mexico State as Western Athletic Conference underdogs are an ugly 5-25-1 ATS in non-conference post-season games off a win, if their foe was off an ATS loss.  Take Arkansas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Murray State Racers minus the points over Saint Peter's.  The 15th-seeded Peacocks pulled an improbable upset as an 18.5-point underdog in the first round when they sent John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats packing.  But we will fade Saint Peter's off that huge upset win, as > .600 underdogs that pulled upset wins as a 12-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game have covered the spread in the post-season just 31% the past 32 years.  Take Murray State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over the Ohio Bobcats.  Since its founding in 2008, the CBI Tournament has seen the underdogs dominate in the opening round, with a 57-40-2 ATS record.  And that's the way we'll look tonight, as Rice falls into a 24-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the post-season off a blowout loss.  Take Rice + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets enter tonight's game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, while Dallas lost its previous game.  Charlotte, though, is 18-35 ATS at home off 3 SU/ATS wins, while the Mavs are 13-0 ATS as a road favorite off a road loss.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Saint Mary's.  The #5-seeded Gaels come into this game off a blowout win over Indiana.  Saint Mary's was favored in that game by 2.5 points, and won by 29.  But the Gaels are an underdog vs. the #4-seed, UCLA.  And that's key, as Saint Mary's has done great over the years as a favorite (252-200-11 ATS), but has been awful as an underdog (81-115-2 ATS).  Additionally, the favorite in match-ups between #4 and #5 seeds has gone 19-4 ATS.  Take UCLA minus the points.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars minus the points over Richmond.  The Spiders pulled off their fourth straight upset when they upended Iowa, 67-63, as a 9.5-point underdog.  But underdogs have covered just 41% in the post-season over the past 32 years off 4 straight upsets.  Take Providence minus the points.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Tennessee.  The Wolverines have been one of the most under-achieving teams this season.  Michigan was tabbed in the preseason to be a Top 5 squad, but has only won 18 of 32 games (14-18 ATS).  The good news for Juwan Howard is that his roster does have a lot of talent.  We'll take the Wolves + the points, as they're 14-7-1 ATS in the post-season as an underdog.  In contrast, the Volunteers have covered just four of 20 non-conference post-season games as a favorite of 8 points or less.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays + the points over Kansas.  These two teams met last season, and the Jayhawks edged the Blue Jays, 73-72.  Both teams come into this game off impressive wins.  Kansas blew out Texas Southern, and covered the 21.5-point spread by 5.5 points.  Creighton also covered by 5.5 points, as it upset San Diego State, 72-69, on Thursday, as a 2.5-point underdog.  However, the Blue Jays suffered a key loss in that game's overtime session when Ryan Kalkbrenner, sustained a knee injury.  Of course, his absence has been accounted for by the oddsmakers, so I have no problem stepping in to take the Blue Jays as a double-digit underdog.  For technical support, consider that revenge-minded teams have covered 60% since 1990 as an underdog of more than 8 points in non-conference, post-season games.  Take Creighton.

At 3 pm, in The Basketball Classic, our selection is on the Western Illinois Leathernecks + the points over Texas El Paso.  Western Illinois has lost its last eight games to the point spread.  But this long ATS losing streak has conferred point spread value to the Leathernecks, and has also set them up in one of my better NCAA systems, which has cashed 70% since 1990.  Moreover, Western Illinois is 10-0-1 ATS in non-conference games, when priced from +3 to +15 points, while UTEP is a poor 8-16 ATS when favored between -3 and -15 points against non-conference opposition.  Finally, UTEP is a wallet-breaking 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the post season.  Take Western Illinois + the points.

At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over North Carolina.  The Tar Heels played their best game of the season on Thursday, when they crushed Marquette, 95-63.  Unfortunately, they've covered just 22% of non-conference games since 1990 as an underdog (or PK) off a win by more than 10 points.  Meanwhile, the Bears are 43-20-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Take Baylor minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over Oregon.  After a 7-game SU/ATS win streak, the Aggies have lost their last two games ATS.  I look for Texas A&M to get back into the win column (in Vegas) with a cover today vs. the visiting Ducks.  Texas A&M is an awesome 62-33-1 ATS on a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in the post-season.  Take Texas A&M minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Colgate.  The Raiders have won 15 straight games entering this tournament.  And that win streak ranked 3rd behind South Dakota State (21 games) and Murray State (20 games).  Unfortunately, long win streaks don't necessarily equate to ATS success.  And South Dakota State found that out against Providence in early action, on Thursday.  We played against South Dakota State yesterday, and will also fade Colgate on Friday night.  Indeed, teams seeded #13 (or worse) are an awful 26.3% ATS in the NCAA Tourney when they were on a 14-game (or better) win streak.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats over Michigan State.  This is a great match-up between two veteran coaches (Bob McKillop, 33 years; Tom Izzo, 27 years) who have been with their programs for their entire head coaching careers.  Interestingly, they've never faced each other throughout this time.  This game will be played in Greenville, South Carolina, so the fans should favor the Wildcats.  We'll take Davidson, as it was 2-1 ATS outside of conference vs. tourney teams, including a huge upset win at Alabama, as a 9.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, the Spartans stumbled out of conference vs. tourney teams, as they were 1-3 ATS.  And Davidson's covered eight straight non-conference games, to boot.  Take the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over LSU.  In their last three games, the Cyclones have scored 41 (Texas Tech), 68 (Baylor) and 36 (Oklahoma State).  This paucity of points in two of their three most recent games will keep a lot of punters off Iowa State.  It shouldn't.  Indeed, in the NCAA Tourney, underdogs of +3 (or more) points that averaged 55 (or less) points over their previous 3 games have covered 61% since 1999.  The Cyclones were a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in their non-conference schedule vs. teams that made the tourney, with big upset wins over Memphis (78-59), Iowa (73-53) and Creighton (64-58).  In stark contrast, LSU played one tourney team outside of its conference, and was upset by TCU, 77-68.  Take the underdog Cyclones.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Cal State Fullerton.  The Blue Devils are on a 4-game ATS losing streak.  But that bodes well for Mike Krzyzewski's troops tonight, as Duke's generally been strong off ATS losses, including 39-24-1 ATS their last 64 off 3+ ATS losses (and 15-7-1 ATS their last 23 off 4+ ATS losses).  Take Duke minus the points.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies upset Duke, 82-67, as a 6-point underdog to win the ACC tournament.  Unfortunately, teams that pulled upsets as 6-point (or greater) underdogs in their Conference tourney championship game, have burned money in their initial game of the NCAA Tourney, and especially when not getting more than 7 points, as they've covered just 27% over the last 20 years.  The ACC Conference had a down season.  Out of conference, Virginia Tech played just one fellow Tourney team.  That game was against Memphis, and the Tigers won SU/ATS, 69-61.  Take Texas to blow out Virginia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Miami-Fla.  Andy Enfield's Trojans are 26-7, but largely flew under-the-radar this season.  But what's noteworthy is their record vs. other tournament teams.  They played San Diego State in their non-conference schedule, and blew out the Aztecs, 58-43, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Then, they played UCLA and Arizona twice.  Both the Bruins and Wildcats have legitimate aspirations of winning the title, so I won't hold it against USC that it "only" won one of those four games, straight-up.  But it did COVER the spread in three of those four games, so for the season, it went 4-1 ATS against other NCAA Tourney teams.  The ACC conference was extremely weak this season (when compared to past years).  The Hurricanes played one other NCAA tourney team in their non-conference schedule.  That was a neutral court game vs. Alabama, which is seeded just slightly higher than USC (Alabama is a 6-seed; USC is a 7-seed).  The Crimson Tide crushed Miami, 96-64.  Of all the NCAA Tourney teams seeded #12 higher, the Hurricanes rank dead last (so, #48 of 48) in defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, with a ranking of #154 (of the 358 division 1 teams).  Take USC.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Yale.  This is not your grandfather's Yale team.  And, by that, I mean, it's not very good -- at least not compared to past Yale teams that made the Tournament.  The Bulldogs made the NCAA Tourney is 2016 and 2019, as well.  But that 2016 team upset Baylor in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney, and then lost to Duke by just seven points in the 2nd round!  It covered the spread by 3.83 ppg that season, and was 12-7-2 ATS overall.  Likewise, the 2019 edition almost pulled an upset of #3-seed LSU in the first round, and was 14-10 ATS.  But this year's Yale team was under water ATS with just a 14-15 ATS record.  And in the pre-Ivy League schedule, it was blown out by Seton Hall (80-44), Vermont (61-53), Auburn (86-64), and Saint Mary's (87-60).  So, it played four other NCAA tourney teams in its non-conference schedule, and went 0-4 SU/ATS.  And it was 0-5 SU/ATS this season when getting 5+ points.  Take Purdue minus the points.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Akron.  The Bruins had a magical run last season in this NCAA Tournament, as they won their "First Four" game, in overtime, against Michigan State.  And they ended up in the Final Four, and were 6-0 ATS along the way.  They then went 2-1 in the just-concluded Pac-12 Tourney, so they're 8-1 ATS in the post-season with Mick Cronin as head coach.  Even better:  Pac-12 teams have gone 88-58 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Creighton.  The Aztecs enter this tournament with the #1 defense among the participants, as they give up just 57.6 ppg.  And they also rank #2 in defensive efficiency (behind only Texas Tech).  The Aztecs are favored in this game, and we'll lay the points as NCAA Tourney favorites have cashed 61.7% in the first round of the tournament (including the "First Four" round), if their defense allowed 59.3 (or less) points.  Take San Diego State.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Detroit.  The Magic suffered one of the worst losses in franchise history when they were blown out at home, 150-108, by Brooklyn, on Tuesday.  But off that embarrassing loss, we'll take Orlando to rebound tonight.  NBA home teams bounce back off horrible home losses, more often than not.  And since 1990, home teams have covered 63% at home off a loss in which they gave up 42 points (and 73% if they also lost that game by 22+ points).  Take Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Saint Peter's.  The Peacocks come into this game on a 7-game SU/ATS win streak, while Kentucky was upset by Tennesee in its last game, and has covered just one of its last six, overall.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the hot Peacocks.  But NCAA Tourney teams on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak have covered just 37.1% as underdogs of more than 3 points vs. foes on a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Take Kentucky.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Norfolk State.  Scott Drew's Bears were upset by the Oklahoma Sooners, 72-67, in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament.  And that was Baylor's 2nd straight ATS defeat.  But the Bears are a wallet-fattening 47-22-5 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if they also failed to cover the spread two games back.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:40 pm, our selection is on the Providence Friars minus the points over South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits have won 21 straight games.  But they were favored to win all 21.  Their last loss:  December 15 vs. Missouri State.  And, like this game today, South Dakota State was an underdog.  Indeed, South Dakota State has been an underdog just three times this season, and went 1-2 SU/ATS.  So, this will be a big step-up in class for Eric Henderson's men.  And Summit League teams have underwhelmed vs. the Big East Conference the past three seasons, as they've gone 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS, with the average loss by 16 points.  The last meeting was on November 30, when the Summit League's runner-up, North Dakota State, played Creighton, the Big East's runner-up.  Creighton was an 8-point favorite, and blew out the Bison, 80-55.  The Big East has dominated non-conference foes when not favored by more than 8 points, as Big East teams are 71-46-2 ATS.  Lay the points with Ed Cooley's Friars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings upset Chicago on Monday, 112-103.  We'll fade the Kings as a home dog tonight, as losing teams off an upset home win are a poor 87-125 ATS as home dogs of +5 (or more) points vs. rested .600 (or better) foes.  Take the Bucks.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Golden State.  The Celts were upset, 95-92, by Dallas on Monday.  And that was Boston's second straight ATS defeat.  The good news is that Boston is 9-0 ATS this season (and 15-2 ATS dating back to last season) after scoring less than 97 points in their previous game.  And the Celts are 29-11 ATS the past three seasons off back to back ATS defeats.  Take Boston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Iona.  The Gators enter tonight's home game off back to back ATS losses.  But they're 70-32 ATS off back to back ATS losses when matched up against .625 (or better) foes, including a perfect 11-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes when priced from -3 to -15 points.  Take Florida.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Nets put up 150 points in their last game, but have been installed as a home underdog tonight.  Since 1990, teams not favored by 5+ points, that scored 150+ in their previous game, have covered just 38% of the time.  Take Dallas.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Mercy Titans + the points over Florida Gulf Coast.  The Titans were blown out, 77-59, by Northern Kentucky to end their regular season.  We'll take Detroit to rebound tonight, as an underdog vs. the Eagles.  Detroit is a stellar 18-3-1 after scoring less than 65 points, and 10-2-1 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks + the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Hawks have been dominant as an underdog, including 11-1-1 ATS when getting 6+ points, while the Chanticleers are a poor 2-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  Take the Hawks as a double-digit underdog tonight.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Detroit.  The Heat will conclude its six-game home stand tonight.  And it will look to bounce back off its loss to Minnesota, on Saturday.  But All-Star Jimmy Butler (toe) didn't play in that game, yet has been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight's match.  Detroit also lost its last game, 106-102, at home on Sunday to the Clippers.  And that was Detroit's 3rd straight defeat.  We'll lay the points, as Miami is 55-37 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 10+ points in its previous game, and 34-16 ATS when playing with more rest than its opponent.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.d

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over Princeton.  Mike Rhoades' Rams were upset by Richmond, 75-64, in the Atlantic 10 tournament.  But off that upset loss, we'll take VCU to bounce back here, at home, in the opening round of the NIT tournament.  The Rams are 6-1 ATS at home off an upset loss, and they're also 18-9 ATS at home their last 27 off an upset conference loss.  Even better:  the Rams also lost their final regular season game, and they're 22-0 straight-up, and 18-2-2 ATS at home when priced from PK to -13 if they're off back to back losses.  Lay the points with VCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Upstate Spartans + the points over Appalachian State.  The Spartans have been installed as a big underdog tonight vs. the Mountaineers.  And we'll happily grab the points -- especially given how well the big underdogs have done in these minor (i.e., not NIT or NCAA) tournaments (e.g., 47-27 ATS when getting 9+ points).  Moreover, the Mountaineers have burned money when laying points to an opponent not off a SU/ATS win, as they're 14-35-1 ATS.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Golden State.  The Wizards have dropped their first three games of their four-game road trip, as they lost SU/ATS at the Clippers, Lakers, and Trail Blazers.  So, we'll look for the 4th time to be the charm, and will take the points with Washington tonight.  For technical support, consider that double-digit underdogs have covered 65.5% over the last 32 years off 3 road SU/ATS losses when matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Minnesota.  After upsetting the Utah Jazz -- which gave coach Gregg Popovich the all-time wins record -- the Spurs understandably had a letdown in their next game.  Indiana upset the Spurs, here, on Saturday, in the Alamo City.  So, we'll look for San Antone to bounce back off that home upset loss.  San Antonio is 103-71 ATS at home off an upset loss.  And it's also a solid 28-9 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a blowout loss by more than 21 points.  With the Spurs, indeed, looking to avenge a 25-point loss to the T-Wolves in Minneaopolis earlier this season, we'll take San Antonio + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The 76ers were throttled, 129-100, as a 3.5-point home favorite by the Brooklyn Nets, so they'll look to bounce back off that humiliating loss this evening.  We'll lay the points, as teams that failed to cover the spread at home by 30+ points in their previous game have bounced back 72.5% since 1991 when matched up against a foe off a win.  And the Magic are, indeed, off a win, as they upset Minnesota, 118-110, as an 8.5-point home dog on Friday.  Unfortunately for Orlando, it's a horrid 0-12 SU/ATS as an underdog of 10+ points, if it covered the spread by more than 8 points in its previous game.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Toronto.  We played against Denver two nights ago, and got the $$$$ with the Warriors, who won here by 11 points, 113-102.  We'll take Denver to bounce back off that loss, as it's 52-31 ATS at home off a home loss by more than 10 points, including an awesome 27-5 ATS when priced from +2 to -7.5 points.  Even better:  the Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in their last three games.  But Denver's 28-7 ATS against .400 (or better) foes, if the Nuggets were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including 16-1 ATS as a favorite (and 10-0 ATS if favored by 5+ points).  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Virginia Tech.  Mike Krzyzewski's men are on (for them) a rare 3-game ATS losing streak.  Indeed, Duke's generally been solid off an ATS loss, and especially if they won their previous game, as they're 151-113 ATS.  And when they're favored by more than 4 points, off 3+ ATS losses, they've gone 19-2 ATS if they also won their previous game, straight-up (and 12-0 ATS if they won the previous two games, straight-up).  Lay the points tonight with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Minnesota.  Both of these teams played last night.  The Heat took care of business here, at home, vs. Cleveland, while Minnesota was upset by the Magic, in Orlando.  We played on Miami last night, and will come right back with them on Saturday.  Yesterday's win by the Heat was their 13th in 16 games (11-5 ATS).  Minnesota is also playing good basketball, as it's won six of its last eight SU/ATS.  But this is a difficult scheduling spot for the T-Wolves, who will be traveling without rest, and also playing their 3rd game in four nights (all with travel in-between).  The Heat, meanwhile, are in the midst of a long seven-game home stand.  Lay the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas Southern Tigers minus the points over Alcorn State.  The Braves won twice vs. Texas Southern in the regular season.  And both games were hotly-contested, as the Braves won by 1 at home, and by 3 on the road.  We'll take the Tigers to win Round 3, as double-revengers off back-to-back wins have cashed 86% in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Tourney.  Lay the points with Texas Southern.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Kansas.  The Red Raiders come into this game off two great defensive performances.  They allowed just 41 points in their win against Iowa State on Thursday, and held Oklahoma to just 55 yesterday.  For the season, Texas Tech is surrendering a mere 59.9 ppg.  We'll take the defensive-minded underdog, as NCAA teams with defensive scoring averages of less than 60 ppg, have cashed 62% in the Conference Tourney Finals since 1990, if they also held their previous two opponents to less than 60 points.  Additionally, Texas Tech is a solid 23-13 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take the Red Raiders + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Michigan State.  The Boilermakers (26-6 SU, 13-18-1 ATS) play this game with revenge from a 68-65 loss to the Spartans (22-11 SU, 17-15-1 ATS), in East Lansing.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as Big 10 teams, with losing ATS records, are 75-45 ATS in the Tournament when playing with revenge, including 14-2-1 ATS as a favorite of 2 (or more) points.  Take Purdue.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Northern Colorado Bears minus the points over Portland State.  The Bears were upset not once, but twice, earlier this season by the Vikings.  We'll lay the points with Steve Smiley's troops as Big Sky Tourney favorites have covered 75% if they lost each of the season's prior meetings vs. their opponent.  Take Northern Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Penn State.  The Nittany Lions enter tonight's game on a 4-game ATS win streak after upsetting Ohio State, 71-68, yesterday.  Meanwhile, the Boilers are 0-6-1 ATS their last seven. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the hot Nittany Lions, and against the cold Boilermakers.  But consider that NCAA favorites of more than 5 points have covered 73% since 1990 in conference tourney games, if they were on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS win streak.  Take Purdue.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.