Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8:20 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Detroit.  Last week, Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his storied career.  The Packers were favored by 3.5 points against New Orleans, yet only scored three in a blowout loss by 35 points.  But one of the things I often like to do is play on teams that scored less points in an upset loss than they were actually favored by, as those teams have bounced back in their next game much more often than not.  Even better:  Green Bay is a jaw-dropping 34-6 ATS its last 40 (and 10-0 ATS its last 10) with Rodgers at QB, following a game in which it scored less than 23 points!  And Green Bay is also an awesome 50-21-1 ATS in Rodgers' starts when favored by less than 13 points against a foe off an ATS win, including 10-1 ATS if the Packers were upset in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Ravens were upset, in overtime, by Las Vegas, while Kansas City eked out a 4-point win over a very good Browns team.  The good news for the Ravens is that NFL home teams off a upset road loss have cashed 60.3% since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And Baltimore has cashed 76.4% as an underdog over the last 42 years off an upset loss, when matched-up against a non-division foe off a SU win.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins were out-yarded, 393-259, by New England, but benefited from two fumbles by the Patriots to escape with a 17-16 upset win.  This week, they'll take on a Bills team which is no doubt smarting from its 23-16 upset home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.  And the Bills also had tough luck, as they out-yarded the Steelers, 371 to 252, but lost the turnover battle (and the war).  Over the last 42 seasons, Game 2 road teams off upset losses have cashed 61% vs. foes off upset wins.  Even better:  Buffalo's 13-2 ATS vs. the Dolphins, if Miami was off an upset win in its previous game.  And the Bills are 33-13-1 ATS off a loss, if their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston pulled off one of Week 1's biggest shockers when they upset Jacksonville, 37-21, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for Houston, double-digit road underdogs, off a double-digit upset win at home, have covered just 32.2% over the past 42 NFL seasons, including just 23% vs. a foe off a point spread win.  Take Cleveland to rout the Texans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last week, the Saints routed Green Bay, which was the #1 NFC seed in the previous season's playoffs.  But NFL road favorites (or PK) that upset an opponent in Week 1, which won 10+ games the previous games, have generally had a letdown in Week 2, as they've cashed just 38% since 1980.  Take the Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Brigham Young.  BYU notched a huge, emotional win last Saturday, when it defeated its Beehive State rival, Utah, 26-17, as a 7-point underdog.  That moved BYU's record to 2-0 on the season.  But .800 (or better) NCAA home underdogs (or PK) have covered just 16% over the past 42 years off an upset, non-conference home win.  And the Cougars have covered just 6 of 22 off an upset win, when they were matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Arizona State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Stanford.  David Shaw's Cardinal pulled off a massive upset last weekend, as they went into the Coliseum, and upset USC, 42-28, as an 18-point underdog.  And they did more than just win the game.  They also got USC head coach Clay Helton fired!  Stanford will now travel east to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores, who also pulled off a road upset win last week, when they went into Fort Collins, and upended the Colorado State Rams, 24-21.  This is a big letdown spot for Stanford, as this non-conference road game is sandwiched in between conference games vs. USC and UCLA.  For technical support, consider that Pac-12 teams have covered just 15.3% since 1980 as a non-conference road favorite after a SU/ATS conference win, if they also have a Pac-12 conference game on deck.  Take Vanderbilt as a big home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Mississippi State.  We played on the Bulldogs last Saturday as a home underdog vs. NC State.  And Mike Leach's men got the $$$ vs. NC State.  But off that home upset win, we will fade Miss State on Saturday.  Indeed, since 1980, SEC Conference teams are a horrible 30.4% ATS in their first road game of the season, if they're off back to back home wins.  Take the home dog Memphis Tigers + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Tulsa.  We played against the Buckeyes last Saturday, and easily got the $$$ with Oregon, which upset Ohio State, 35-28, as a 14.5-point road underdog.  This Saturday, we'll switch gears, and lay the points with Ohio State, which is 28-12 ATS off a SU loss  Take Ohio State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Washington State.  The Trojans lost more than a conference game last Saturday.  They also lost their head coach, Clay Helton, as he was summarily fired on Tuesday by Mike Bohn, the school's athletic director.  So, USC's cornerbacks coach, Donte Williams, will assume the head role for the remainder of the season.  And Williams' first game will be this week at Washington State.  The Trojans are a superb 39-19-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 15-3-1 ATS on the Pac-12 road.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Virginia Tech.  The Mountaineers had a breather last Saturday, as Long Island visited Morgantown, and were annihilated by WVU, 66-0.  The Hokies will now pay a visit to Morgantown, after going 2-0 SU/ATS at home to start their 2021 season.  Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, NCAA teams off back-to-back SU/ATS home wins to start their seasons, are a horrible 30.7% ATS since 1980 in Game 3 when not getting more than 4 points, and also matched up against an opponent off a win.  Moreover, NCAA teams have cashed 79% at home since 1992 off a win by more than 56 points, when matched up against a winning, non-conference foe.  Take the Mountaineers.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Cincinnati.  Indiana lost its season opener, but bounced back last Saturday with a blowout win over Idaho, 56-14.  The Hoosiers have been installed as a home underdog in this game against the #8-ranked Bearcats, which bodes well for Tom Allen's men.  Indeed, since 1980, .500 (or worse) underdogs off a 40+ point win have covered 63.3% vs. opponents also off a win.  Moreover, dating back to Sept 28, 2019, Indiana is now 8-2 ATS its last 10 as an underdog.  And it's 23-11 ATS off a straight-up win, when priced from +10 to -27 points.  Finally, Cincinnati is a wallet-breaking 15-27 ATS as a road favorite priced from -2.5 to -12 points.  Take the Hoosiers as a home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers come into this road game off back to back home wins over Fordham and Buffalo.  But in their lone road game this season, they were soundly beaten by Illinois, 30-22, as a 7-point favorite.  They'll now be tasked with going into Norman to take on a juggernaut Oklahoma team coming off a 76-0 whitewash of Western Carolina.  We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as the 'Huskers have covered just 20 of 57 games away from home off a double-digit home win.  Even better:  NCAA home favorites of 35 points or less (or PK) have cashed 70.2% of non-conference games since 1980 off a win by 60+ points.  Lay the points with the Sooners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last season, the Raiders were a .500 ball club, and missed the playoffs, while Baltimore went 11-5, and reached the Divisional round of the playoffs.  Over the years, it's been unprofitable to back playoff teams from the previous season in Game 1, if they were matched up against non-playoff teams.  This is the 4th of such meetings this season, and the point spread result of the first three (Cowboys over Bucs, Cardinals over Titans, and Chargers over Football Team) all went the way of the team which failed to make the playoffs last season.  And when such Game 1 meetings have occurred on Monday Night Football, our non-playoff teams have gone 14-6 ATS.  That bodes well for Las Vegas today.  As does the fact that Vegas is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 Monday Night games, and 16-11 ATS as a non-division home dog of +4 (or more) points, while Baltimore is a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a non-division road favorite priced at -4 (or more) points.  Take the Raiders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  When these two AFC East division rivals last met, the Dolphins pounded the Patriots, 22-12, as a 2-point home underdog.  That defeat prevented Bill Belichick's men from having their 20th consecutive winning season.  With revenge on their mind, I expect the Patriots to make a statement here, at home.  Indeed, New England is 20-4 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent which upset it in the previous meeting.  And it's also 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings at home vs. Miami, and 16-5-3 ATS in its home openers when priced from -3 to -10 points.  Lay the points with New England. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the New York Giants.  This past preseason, the Giants failed to win a game.  And that doesn't bode well for New York in this season opener, as NFL teams have gone 7-24 ATS their last 31 season openers after going winless in the preseason.  Even worse:  New York is 3-14 ATS its last 17 as a single-digit home underdog, including 0-8 ATS its last eight vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, Denver is 16-9-1 ATS in its season-openers vs. non-division opponents, and it's 19-12 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points.  Ultimately, this will be a difficult match-up for Daniel Jones, who will be without injured TE Evan Engram as an option.  Denver's secondary is going to give New York's receivers fits.  With guys like Callahan, Surtain and Fuller, the Broncos will contain Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.  The Giants will no doubt lean heavily on Saquon Barkley this afternoon, but he is coming off major surgery, and could be on a snap count.  All in all, Denver has a clear advantage in this match-up, and should win the game going away.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our AFC South Game of the Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over the Houston Texans.  Last season, the Jaguars won just one game (which enabled them to draft QB Trevor Lawrence in the Draft), while Houston wasn't much better at 4-12.  But the fact that the Jaguars are favored on the road in this season opener should tell you what most expect from the Texans this season (and it isn't much).  Last year, Houston won both meetings vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately, NFL teams have covered just 36% in Game 1 over the last 31 years if their opponent was a double-revenging division rival.  Take Jacksonville to blow out Houston on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Falcons have dominated their home openers over the years, as they're 17-5 ATS their last 22.  And this is a good set-up for the homestanding team, given Philadelphia's road woes, of late (0-6 SU/ATS last six).  Both teams will be breaking in new head coaches:  Arthur Smith in Atlanta, and Nick Sirianni in Phiily.  But Smith has the huge benefit of having a much more experienced quarterback in Matt Ryan.  And Ryan will be able to pick apart the Eagles' shaky secondary this afternoon, as I expect Calvin Ridley to torment Eagles CB Darius Slay.  And rookie TE Kyle Pitts also should be in for a big afternoon in his NFL debut, as the Eagles don't have anyone who can stay with him.  The Falcons are a solid 30-16-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 points when they didn't own a losing record.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  Both of these teams come into this game in Starkville off season-opening wins last week.  But how they reached those wins was vastly different.  NC State blew out South Florida, 45-0, as a 20-point home favorite.  In contrast, Mississippi State had to storm back from a 20 point, 4th quarter deficit to eke out a 35-34 win against Louisiana Tech.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the Bulldogs as a short home underdog on Saturday night.  But the Wolfpack are a wallet-busting 13-33 ATS on the road in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 8 points.  And Game 2 road favorites, off a double-digit home win the previous week, have cashed just 34.4% of non-conference games vs. winning opposition, dating back 32 seasons.  Finally, Mississippi State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in non-conference games at home, off a win, when not favored by 7+ points.  Grab the points with Mike Leach's Bulldogs on this Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Liberty.  Troy smashed Southern U., 55-3, last Saturday, and has been installed as a home underdog vs. Liberty in this game.  The Flames went 10-1 last season, but this is their road opener for 2021.  And NCAA teams have cashed just 32.5% in their road openers if they won 87+ percent of their games the previous season, and were not favored by 7 or more points in the current game.  Take Troy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Penn State.  The Cardinals have been extremely profitable over the last 16 seasons when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points in regular season non-conference games, as they're 23-6 ATS.  And I love this situation on Saturday, as it's a potential scheduling "flat spot" for the Nittany Lions, as Penn State defeated then-No. 12-ranked Wisconsin last week, and has #25-ranked Auburn on deck.  Grab the points with Ball State.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Virginia Tech.  Rick Stockstill's Blue Raiders blew out Monmouth last Saturday, 50-15, as an 8.5-point home favorite.  And they've now been installed as a big road underdog in Blacksburg against the Hokies.  We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee, as underdogs of +14 (or more) points have gone 108-67 ATS in non-conference games off a win by more than 30 points in their previous game.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies shocked Georgia Tech in Atlanta last week, as they won, 22-21, as a 19-point road underdog.  But when you look through the final score to the stats, you'll notice that Georgia Tech actually out-yarded Northern Illinois 429 to 301.  The Huskies have been installed as a home underdog in this non-conference tilt vs. Wyoming.  Unfortunately for Thomas Hammock's Huskies, home dogs have covered just 29.4% over the last 32 seasons off an upset win as a 14-point (or greater) underdog, when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a SU win.  And Wyoming is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Ohio State.  Both of these teams come into Columbus off wins to start the 2021 season.  Oregon downed Fresno St., 31-24, while Ohio State went into Minneapolis and defeated the Golden Gophers, 45-31.  The fact that Oregon struggled last week in its 7-point win will keep many bettors away from the Ducks this week.  It shouldn't.  Indeed, Game 2 non-conference underdogs of +20 or less points (or PK) have covered 66.1% over the last 32 seasons after failing to cover the spread in their opener against a non-conference foe, if they were now matched up against an opponent off a double-digit win.  Even better:  the Ducks are 44-31-2 ATS their last 77 off a point spread loss, including 19-11-1 ATS on the road.  And, finally, Pac-12 teams with a winning record have gone 45-19-1 ATS as an underdog vs. Big 10 foes.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Illinois.  The Illini kicked off the Bret Bielema era with a 30-22 upset win over Nebraska, and will look to make it 2-in-a-row for their new head coach.  On Saturday night, Texas-San Antonio will come into Champaign, and it will look to continue the success it had last season (7-5 SU and 7-4 ATS).  Even better, the Roadrunners are 10-3 ATS their last 13 in the underdog role, while Illinois is a nasty 27-46 ATS its last 73 as a favorite (compared to 11-7 its last 18 as an underdog).  And since 1980, Big 10 Conference teams have covered just 31% of their non-conference games off an upset conference win.  Take Texas San Antonio + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over the LA Chargers.  Seattle's offense has heretofore been moribund this preseason, as it's scored a total of 10 points in its first two games.  But I expect it to breakout on this Saturday night, as NFL teams off back to back games where they scored less than 12 points have covered 70% in the preseason over the last 29+ years.  Take the Seahawks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Denver.  The Rams opened up their preseason with 2 home games, and lost both.  And they only scored 22 points combined in those two losses.  Meanwhile, the Broncos opened up with two road games, and won two blowouts, as they scored a combined 63 points.  With the Broncos now playing their first home game, and the Rams now playing their first road game, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 2-0 Broncos here, at home.  And it seems like that's what most bettors are doing, as this line opened at -6 and is now significantly higher.  But it’s extremely dangerous to lay more than 7 points in the Preseason, as NFL teams getting 7.5 or more points have gone 40-18 ATS since 1983.  Take the Rams.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Houston.  The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers dropped their second straight preseason contest last week, and it was an ugly blowout loss in front of their home faithful.  Tampa Bay scored just 3 points last week vs. the Tennessee Titans, and lost by 31 points.  But that defeat should serve as prime motivation on Saturday vs. Houston.  Indeed, when you look at how defending Super Bowl champs do in the preseason, a clear dichotomy emerges.  When the defending champs are off a straight-up win, they’re a horrible 22-39-2 ATS in their next preseason game.  But when the defending champs are off a straight-up loss, they’re 32-23-2 ATS.  That bodes well for Tampa Bay in this game.  As does the fact that NFL teams have cashed 66% in the preseason off back to back losses, if they were defeated in their previous game by 25 or more points.  Take the Buccaneers.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Panthers mustered just 3 first half points vs. Baltimore last week, and fell, 20-3, to the Ravens.  They'll try to rebound tonight against a Steelers team which is 3-0 in the preseason.  Pittsburgh has announced it will start 3rd string QB Dwayne Haskins.  In the first three games, the Steelers showcased 2nd stringer Mason Rudolph, but neither he, nor 1st string QB Ben Roethlisberger, will play tonight in the finale.  And the Steelers will also sit top RB Najee Harris, so Benny Snell will get an extended look this evening.  On the Carolina side, first string QB Sam Darnold will suit up for this game, and should play at least the first half, along with most of the starters (though not RB Christian McCaffrey).  We'll lay the points with the Panthers, as they're 8-2 ATS in the preseason off a loss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  Last week, the 49ers were upset at home, 19-16, by Kansas City, while the Chargers won at the Rams, 13-6, as a 3.5-point favorite.  Dating back to 1989, NFL teams (like the 49ers) off home upset defeats have covered 79% vs. foes off a SU/ATS win as a road favorite.  That bodes well for San Francisco tonight.  As does the fact that road teams have been dominant this preseason, as they've gone 21-7 ATS, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when favored by 6 or less.  Finally, the Chargers are an awful 4-11 ATS as a home underdog, while the Niners are 9-1 on the road off a SU/ATS home loss. Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Giants lost, 12-7, last week to their rival, the New York Jets.  But I love the Giants to bounce back today vs. a Cleveland team off an upset win, 23-13, over Jacksonville.  For technical support, consider that, through Friday's action, NFL preseason underdogs have gone 17-0-1 ATS their last 18 if they gave up 13.5 (or less) points per game.  And NFL preseason favorites of more than 4 points off an upset road win have covered just 36% since 1983 vs. foes off a SU loss.  The Browns are 2-8 ATS in the preseason off a double-digit win, while the Giants are 23-13-2 ATS as an underdog away from home, if they didn't own a winning record.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over the Denver Broncos.  Seattle was blitzed, 20-7, last week by the Raiders, while Denver drilled Minnesota, 33-6.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Broncos tonight.  But dating back to 1991, underdogs off a double-digit loss have covered 61.8% in the preseason vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Moreover, NFL favorites of -4.5 (or more) points have covered just 30.4% in the preseason off a 20-point (or greater) win.  Take Seattle + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Last week, the Rams sat 38 players, and lost, 13-6, at home to the cross-town Chargers.  One of the things I like to do in the preseason is play on home dogs to rebound off home SU/ATS losses, as they've covered 78% the past 22 seasons.  That bodes well for the Rams tonight.  As does the fact that preseason underdogs with a defensive ppg average of 13.5 (or less) points are 17-0-1 ATS their last 18.  Take Los Angeles + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last week, the Ravens won their 18th straight preseason game, 17-14, over New Orleans.  That fact will keep many bettors off the Panthers side today, but not me.  Indeed, what was more interesting to me was that the Ravens were out-yarded by the Saints, but benefited greatly from six New Orleans' turnovers (3 fumbles, 3 interceptions).  Yet, even with those miscues, the Saints only trailed for 9 min 13 secs of the game.  Here, the Ravens will take on a Carolina team which lost, 21-18, last week to the Colts.  But the Panthers only trailed for seven seconds of that game.  There's way too much value on the Carolina side tonight, as a home underdog.  Take the points.

At 4:25 pm, on the NFL Network, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the New York Jets.  Both Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers will miss this preseason game, which means ex-Atlanta Falcons QB Kurt Benkert will lead the way for Green Bay.  On the other sideline, it will be ex-BYU QB Zach Wilson at the helm.  Notwithstanding the absence of their top 2 signal callers, there's still a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball for Matt LeFleur's Packers.  And it's hard to pass up Green Bay as a home underdog, given how disappointing it played last week vs. Houston.  The Texans upset the Packers, 26-7, as a 3-point road underdog.  But preseason home dogs have generally bounced back off home SU/ATS losses, as they've cashed 78% over the last 22 years.  Even better:  the Packers are 34-17 ATS their last 51 preseason home games.  Take the Packers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the New England Patriots.  In Week 1, Bill Belichick's men rolled over Washington at Foxborough, 22-13, as a 2-point home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Eagles were upset here, at home, last week by Pittsburgh.  Philly was favored by 1 point, but lost, 24-16.   But I love the Eagles to bounce back in this 2nd straight game before their home faithful.  Indeed, since 1986, home teams have cashed 72.2% following an upset home loss to open the preseason, if their opponent was off a win.  Even better:  New England is a wallet-busting 0-8 ATS as a preseason road favorite (or PK) since 2006.  Take the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cowboys opened their preseason slate last week vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Hall of Fame Game, in Canton, Ohio.  Dallas lost that game, 16-3.  But the Cowboys only had four projected starters in uniform, so take that performance with a boulder of salt.  Still, if there was a silver lining in that Hall of Fame Game, it was that the Cowboys outyarded the Steelers, 347-250, and also bettered them in yards per play (5.1 to 4.2).  But a -2 turnover differential spelled doom for Mike McCarthy's men.  We'll take the Cowboys to bounce back at Arizona on Friday night, as NFL underdogs playing away from home, that also lost away from home the previous week, have cashed 58% over the previous 37 Preseasons when playing an opponent that wasn't off a SU loss.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets +1.5 runs over the Philadelphia Phillies.  On Saturday, the Phils won their 7th straight game, with a 5-3 decision over the visiting Mets.  We'll take New York on the run-line in this final game of the 3-game series.  Taijuan Walker will toe the rubber for New York this afternoon.  And the Mets have won all four of his starts vs. the Phillies in his career (2.95 ERA; 1.12 WHIP) and they've won 22 of his last 32 starts, overall.   For the season, Walker's WHIP is a very good 1.22.  And Philly is a dreadful 35-63 (minus 29.5 games on the moneyline) in National League games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 (or better).  Take the Mets +1.5 runs in this early afternoon game on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees minus 1.5 runs over the Baltimore Orioles.  Gerrit Cole was supposed to get the start tonight, but he contracted COVID-19, so he will be quarantined.  Instead, top prospect Luis Gill will be on the hill for the Pinstripes on Tuesday.  But maybe that's not such a bad thing, given that Cole and the Yankees were bombed, 14-0, in his start at Tampa last Thursday.  And New York has dropped five of Cole's last seven starts, overall.  Gil has been tabbed as the best pitching prospect in the Yankees system.  His fastball gets up to the mid-90s, and he averaged 14.7 strikeouts/9-innings at AA Somerset (2.64 ERA) before moving up to AAA Scranton, where his numbers did take a hit (5.64 ERA).  Still, the 23-year-old is ultra-talented.  He'll match up against Baltimore's young Australian southpaw, Alexander Wells, on this Tuesday night.  Wells started 2021 in AAA Norfolk, and had a less-than-mediocre stint there, as his ERA was 5.63 in eight appearances (though his K:BB ratio was solid).  Notwithstanding that relative lack of success, Wells was called up to the Majors on June 25, and he made his MLB debut vs. the Blue Jays the next day.  Overall, Wells' ERA is 5.28, while his WHIP is 1.70.  Neither of those are surprising given his minor league stats, and I believe he'll struggle tonight vs. the Yankees, who are 36-11 as a home favorite priced at -200 (or more).  Lay the 1.5 runs on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Mike Budenholzer's men come into this Game 6 off wins in each of the three previous games, including an upset win on Saturday night in Phoenix.  Unfortunately, Milwaukee has been consistently awful off three (or more) wins, as it's 98-166-7 ATS, including 1-9 ATS since March 24, 2021.  Even worse, if the Bucks are off an upset win, and playing a rested opponent, then they're 1-20 ATS when priced from +3 to -8 points, including 0-13 ATS their last 13.  That doesn't bode well for Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. tonight.  And neither does the fact that .667 (or worse) teams, up 3-games-to-2 in a series, are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of more than 2 points off an upset win!  The Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS their last seven off a home upset loss.  Grab the points with Phoenix tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Suns and Bucks have traded 2 SU/ATS wins -- each winning (and covering) the two games on their own home court.  The scene now moves back to the Valley of the Sun, and that bodes well for Phoenix.  As I mentioned in our analysis of Game 3, Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season at home, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, though, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, as the Suns have a negative point spread differential of -.02, so Phoenix's home/road differential is +3.42. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 35-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.86 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's road/home point spread differential is -4.52 ppg on the road, while Phoenix's home/road point spread differential is +3.42 -- a relative difference of +7.94.  That's the primary reason we are backing the Suns on Saturday night.  But it also bodes well that the Suns were competitive in defeat on Wednesday.  They led for much of Game 4, and only lost by six points.  This season, NBA teams off SU/ATS playoff losses by six points (or less) are 14-2 ATS.  Take the Suns to bounce back in Game 5.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  We played on the Bucks in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 20-point win.  But off that blowout loss, we'll take Chris Paul & Co. to bounce back on Wednesday.  The Suns are a super 20-7 ATS off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if their opponent is off a SU win.  Even better:  over the last 31 NBA Finals, teams off losses in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points have covered 70.3% of the time away from home, including 87% if priced from +2.5 to +8.5 points.  Take the Suns as a road underdog on Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns drew first (and second) blood in this series with back-to-back blowout wins over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Of course, those two games were in the Valley of the Sun, where Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, and that's the key factor for our play on the Bucks on Sunday night.  The Suns have only covered the spread by 0.36 ppg on the road this season, which is 3.04 ppg less than they do at home.  Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 33-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.56 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg).  So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's home/road point spread differential is +4.22 ppg at home, while Phoenix's road/home point spread differential is -3.04 -- a relative difference of +7.26.  So, while many will overreact to the Suns' dominance on their home court, we will not.  Instead, we'll look for a reversal here, in Milwaukee.  And, for technical support, consider that home favorites (or PK) have covered the point spread 90% over the last 31 years in Game 3 of a Playoff series after losing Game 2, if their relative home/road point spread differential was at least 6 points better than their opponent's relative road/home point spread differential.  Additionally, Milwaukee is 37-12 ATS at home off back to back losses when not favored by more than 5 points.  Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Phoenix.  We played on the Suns in Game 1 of this series, and were rewarded with a relatively easy 13-point win, 118-105.  Tonight, we'll switch gears and take the road underdog, as we look for Milwaukee to level the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, Milwaukee had the distinction in this year's Playoffs to be one of only two teams (along with the Clippers) that had a win percentage of .636 both this season, and last season.  One of the things I love to do in the NBA Finals is to take these strong teams off a SU/ATS loss, provided they're not laying more than 4 points.  Since 1991, they've covered 71.9% of the time.  That bodes well for Mike Budenholzer's men tonight.  As does the fact that Phoenix is a woeful 41-71-3 ATS as a home favorite of 2+ points off a double-digit home win, when matched up against a rested opponent.  Take the Bucks as a road underdog in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  Over the last 22 seasons, the NBA's Western conference has been dominant against the Eastern conference, as its teams have won 56.46% of the games.  And this season was no different, as the West went 242-208 (53.77%) vs. the East.  This intriguing NBA Finals match-up will pit the #2-seeded Suns (who last made the Finals in 1993) against the #3-seeded Bucks (who last made the Finals in 1974, when they were a Western conference team).  Prior to the season, I predicted the Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  Unfortunately, their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, sustained an injury in Game 4 vs. Atlanta, so he won't be at 100%, even if he suits up for all the games.  But regardless of Antetokounmpo's health, this Game 1 is a horrible situation for the Bucks.  Indeed, Eastern conference teams are 0-12 straight-up, and 1-11 ATS since 2005 when playing away from home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against a Western conference foe with a better record.  The closest that any of these 12 Eastern conference teams has come in Game 1 was in 2015, when Cleveland lost to Golden State by eight points, as a 6-point underdog.  And the only time an Eastern conference team has covered away from home in Game 1 since 2005 was in 2018, when the Cavs lost by 10, as a 13-point underdog to the Warriors.  Finally, each of these two finalists has done much better vs. the point spread at home, than on the road.  The Suns have covered by 3.25 ppg at home (compared to 0.36 ppg on the road), while the Bucks have covered by 1.56 ppg at Milwaukee (compared to -2.47 ppg away from home).  This is key, as NBA finalists, since 1991, have gone 9-0 SU/ATS at home in Game 1 when their home point spread differential was 1.75 ppg greater than their opponent's road point spread differential.  Take the Phoenix Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Tuesday's 110-88 loss by Milwaukee was doubly-painful, as their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, went down in a heap in the 3rd quarter.  So, this will be the sternest test yet for Mike Budenholzer's Bucks, as they'll have to play tonight's critical Game 5 without the services of their superstar.  But I believe they're up to the task.  The good news for Budenholzer is that they've had ample experience over the last few seasons to play games without their MVP.  This year, Milwaukee went 6-5 without him in the lineup.  Budenholzer -- a Gregg Popovich protege -- will emphasize ball movement, and player movement, and rely on his team's "corporate knowledge," system, and talent to win out.  Atlanta is a horrible 48-88-2 ATS vs. rested opponents off a 20-point (or worse) defeat, including 0-13-1 ATS on the road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points vs. .540 (or better) foes.  And NBA Playoff teams have cashed 67.8% over the last 31 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 21 points, and don't have an inferior record than their opponent.  Take Milwaukee tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Phoenix Suns.  Phoenix leads this series three-games-to-one, even though it has been outscored 403-400 in the four games.  Certainly, with just a little more good fortune, the Clippers could be tied, or even leading this series.  We'll grab the points with Los Angeles, as teams down 3-games-to-1 that have actually outscored their opponent over the three previous games combined, have gone 14-7 ATS in the NBA playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  .600 (or better) underdogs of more than 5 points, off a loss, and down exactly two games in a playoff series, have gone 7-0 ATS away from home since 2015, and 22-7 ATS since 1993.  The Clippers are 30-12 ATS away from home off a straight-up loss.  Take LA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  The #5-seeded Hawks are trying to win their 3rd straight NBA Playoff series without home court advantage -- something which rarely happens in the chalk-heavy NBA.  Atlanta won Game 1 outright, 116-113, as an 8-point road favorite.  But my money is against the Hawks duplicating that feat tonight.  Indeed, NBA teams, seeded #5 or worse, off back to back playoff wins, are a poor 2-34 SU and 7-29 ATS away from home as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that Milwaukee is a reliable 28-3 SU and 23-8 ATS as a home favorite of 4 (or more) points off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Bucks know that they need to win tonight's game, lest they be forced to win at least 2 of 3 games on Atlanta's home court (a venue where Atlanta is 22-4 SU its last 26).  Take Milwaukee minus the points in this critical Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  Before the start of the season, I published my NBA futures selection, and predicted the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  But, for much of the season, it did not look like it would come to fruition, as the Bucks, frankly, underwhelmed.  After finishing with the #1 margin of victory in each of 2019 (8.87), and 2020 (10.08), the Bucks took a major step back this season, and only outscored their opponents by 5.89 points per game.  Still, that was good enough for #1 in the Eastern Conference, and #3, overall.  Indeed, only the Utah Jazz (9.25) and Los Angeles Clippers (6.18) ranked ahead of the Bucks at the end of the regular season.  Atlanta, meanwhile, was a distant ninth (2.32).  It's true that the Bucks were unceremoniously bounced out of the playoffs the past two seasons, notwithstanding their #1 ranking in victory margin.  The Toronto Raptors eliminated the Bucks in 2019, while Miami sent the Bucks packing last season.  But a primary reason for Milwaukee's failures was its subpar play away from home.  However, when playing in front of its home faithful, Milwaukee has actually maintained its strong regular season numbers in the playoffs.  Including this season (and dating back to 2018), Milwaukee is 14-2 straight-up, and 11-5 ATS at home, and has covered the spread by an average of 5.47 ppg.  This season, Milwaukee took 2 of the 3 meetings vs. Atlanta, including the only meeting here, in Milwaukee (129-115, on Jan. 24).  The Hawks did defeat the Bucks, as a 5.5-point home underdog, in the most recent meeting (on April 25).  But that's not necessarily a good thing as, in the NBA semi-finals or finals, revenge-minded teams have gone 13-0 ATS at home in the first game of a Playoff series, if they were not getting 4+ points.  Moreover, Atlanta is a wallet-busting 46-76-1 ATS on the road if it upset its opponent in the previous meeting.  Finally, the Hawks are a horrid 7-32 SU and 8-31 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This series is emblematic of the injury woes that have been front-and-center for the NBA this Playoffs season.  Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard for the remainder of this series, while Utah has been playing without Mike Conley, but with a hobbled Donovan Mitchell (both Conley and Mitchell are officially listed as 'questionable' for this game).  We'll take Utah to bounce back off its Game 5 loss, as it is 34-14 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was off a SU/ATS home loss.  And road favorites have cashed 73% off back to back playoff losses since 2004.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  Philadelphia has had a great season, as it won 55 regular season games.  But if it doesn't win its next two games, it will be on the golf course next week.  We'll lay the small number on the road tonight, as NBA teams with a win percentage greater than .600, off back to back upset losses, have cashed 64.4% since 1991 when playing away from home, and not laying more than 4 points.  Take Philly.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks fell apart on Tuesday and blew a 17-point lead to put them in a precarious spot.  Milwaukee must win its next two games, or it will once again be labeled a post-season paper tiger.  One thing Milwaukee can certainly hang its hat on is that it is an awesome 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home over the last four post-seasons.  Even better, over the last 31 years, home favorites of more than 4 points, that failed to cover their previous game by 7+ points, have cashed 69% in Playoff elimination games if they trailed in the series by exactly 1 game.  Milwaukee has won all four home games this season vs. Brooklyn (3-1 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS its last 13 home games in this series.  And it's 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off an upset loss.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Utah's been terrific at home this season, as it's 35-6 SU, and has covered the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg (compared to a negative mark (-1.10 ppg) on the road).  Meanwhile, the Clippers have also performed better this season at its home at Staples Center than it has done on the road (a .136 differential).  So, it's not exactly a surprise that the Jazz won both home games, while they lost both road games.  The good news for Utah is that it's back home in Salt Lake City tonight.  The Jazz are 59-36-2 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs, including 13-7-1 ATS off back to back losses.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are an awful 67-115-4 ATS vs. .589 (or better) revenge-minded opponents, including 6-25-1 ATS if their foe lost the season's two previous meetings!  Finally, when playing at home, and not laying 10+ points, the Jazz are 21-2 SU their last 23, and 20-3 ATS, including 11-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 7 points.  Take Utah minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks leveled this series at 2 games apiece with a 107-96 upset win in Game 4.  Even worse for Brooklyn:  the Nets are down two stars, with G Kyrie Irving and G James Harden sidelined.  But it would be a mistake to think they're devoid of talent -- especially with Kevin Durant on the court.  And with the Nets being installed as a sizable home underdog for this pivotal Game 5, we'll grab the points with the wounded underdog.  Indeed, .600 (or better) NBA underdogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 75% since 1991 in the Playoffs if they were off a double-digit upset loss, and matched up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .700.  Moreover, Milwaukee is a wallet-busting 12-22 ATS off a double-digit home upset win, while Brooklyn is a solid 42-28 ATS when playing with revenge from a road defeat, and 7-3 this season as a home underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Clippers in Game 3, and got the $$$$ with an easy 132-106 blowout win.  But off that 26-point loss, we'll take the Jazz to bounce back at Staples Center tonight.  For technical support, consider that .714 (or better) teams have gone 32-10 ATS as underdogs off a loss by more than 21 points!  Even better:  the Clippers are an awful 67-115 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes with a .589 (or better) win percentage, including 11-27 ATS in the playoffs.  Take Utah + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia.  After upsetting the #1-seeded 76ers in Game 1, 128-124, the Hawks suffered back-to-back blowout losses (118-102, 127-111).  But off those two 16-point defeats, we'll grab the points with Atlanta in this critical Game 4.  Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 62% at home in the Playoffs after back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Moreover, Philadelphia is an awful 6-23-1 ATS on the road, when favored by 10 points or less, if the 76ers were off back to back wins, and owned a win percentage of .625 (or better).  And Atlanta is 11-1 ATS as a home dog of +3 (or more) points off back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Hawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Phoenix.  The Nuggets are down 3-games-to-none, but I wouldn't count them out of Game 4 -- especially because they're playing at home, and have been installed as an underdog.  Indeed, home underdogs of less than 8 points, that trail in a 7-game series, three-games-to-none, have actually done quite well against the spread, with a 28-20-3 ATS record since 1991, including 8-1-1 ATS if our home underdog's win percentage was .625 (or better).  Moreover, Denver has been terrific at home off a straight-up home loss, when it's owned a winning record, as it's 6-0-1 ATS its last seven (and 23-12-2 ATS its last 37).  Meanwhile, Phoenix has covered just one of its last seven as road favorites vs. winning teams.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  After dropping the first two games of this series, the Clippers cannot afford to go down three-games-to-none.  Los Angeles was in a similar spot in its last series -- vs. Dallas -- and rebounded from a 2-0 deficit to win that series in seven games.  While Utah is no doubt a much more difficult foe than the Mavericks, the Clippers will be able to draw inspiration from that Mavericks series, and I believe that will serve them well in this Game 3.  One fact stands out about the Jazz:  they are dominating at home this season, as they're 35-6 SU, 27-14 ATS, and covering the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg.  But they're actually failing to cover the spread by 0.35 ppg on the road!  That doesn't bode well for Utah tonight.  Nor does the fact that .610 (or better) NBA favorites of -3+ points, down 2-games-to-none in a playoff series, have covered 60% over the past 31 seasons.  Finally, since Kawhi Leonard joined the Clippers, they're a solid 31-18 ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss, including 7-1 ATS vs. .625 (or better) opponents.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Utah tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns swept the first two games of this series to take a 2-0 lead.  But those two games were in Phoenix, where the Suns have gone 31-10 SU, 27-14 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 4.02 ppg.  On the road, Phoenix has been less successful, as it's failed to cover the spread by an average of 0.5 ppg.  Denver, meanwhile, covers the spread at home by an average of 1.34 ppg.  We'll take the Nuggets in this Game 3, as they've been terrific at home off back to back losses by more than 10 points, and especially when priced from +1.5 to -4.5 points, as they're 19-3 ATS their last 22.  Even better:  Denver lost the first two games 122-105 and 123-98.  But NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses that gave up more than 120 points in each game, have cashed 64% since 1990.  This is a virtual 'must-win' game for Mike Malone's men.  Lay the small number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Utah.  The Jazz drew first blood in this series with a three-point win in Game 1.  But off that loss, we'll step in and take the points with the underdog Clippers.  It's true that the Jazz rolled to the best record in the league this year, and are 34-6 at home.  But consider that #1 seeds are a poor 58-91 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs when they lead in a series against a .600 (or better) opponent.  Even better:  the Clippers are 23-10 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 11-1 ATS if the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 4 points or less.  And Los Angeles is an awesome 39-14 ATS off exactly one loss.  Take L.A. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks were embarrassed in Game 2, as they were blown out, 125-86, by Brooklyn.  But that 39-point defeat sets up our play tonight, as .250 (or better) teams have gone 35-5 SU and 28-11-1 ATS at home off a blowout loss by 39+ points, if they were favored by more than 2 points in their current game (and a perfect 6-0 ATS if their win percentage was greater than .600).  Moreover, Milwaukee is 44-17-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Nuggets dropped Game 1, 122-105, as a 6-point underdog.  But Mike Malone's men have been exceptional in the Playoffs, when trailing in a series, as they're 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  That bodes well for Denver tonight.  As does the fact that .700 (or better) teams are a poor 35% ATS at home in the Playoffs since 1991 when not favored by 8+ points, if they won their previous game in the series by more than 11 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Kawhi Leonard & Co. were extended to seven games by the Dallas Mavericks, while Utah had a much easier time of it vs. the Memphis Grizzlies.  Unfortunately for the Clippers, teams off home SU/ATS wins in a Game 7 have covered just 35% since 1991 when they've played on the road in Game 1 of the following series, provided their opponent won its previous series in less than 7 games.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Jazz have won the last five meetings here in Salt Lake City (4-1 ATS), and are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings, overall.  The Jazz were the #1 home point spread team in the league this season, as they covered the spread at home by 4.56 ppg.  The Clippers, meanwhile, had a road point spread differential of just 0.11 this season.  Utah's an awesome 33-4 SU and 25-12 ATS at home its last 37, while the Clippers are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs after winning their two previous games.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks drew first blood on Sunday, with a 128-124 upset win over the Sixers.  But off that defeat, we'll play on the 76ers in Game 2 tonight.  Indeed, that 128 points was the most points the Sixers have given up in a loss, with Joel Embiid in the lineup, this season.  The good news, however, is that NBA teams that give up 125+ points in an upset playoff defeat are a perfect 8-0 ATS the last four playoff seasons, and 67% ATS the past 31 years.  Take Philadelphia to bounce back strong on Tuesday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Our preseason pick to win this year's NBA championship was Milwaukee (at 13-2 odds), but it will be an uphill climb for the Bucks to do it, as they're seeded #3 in the Eastern conference.  Tonight, Milwaukee will have to go into Brooklyn to face a very tough Nets team which boasts three offensive superstars in Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden.  It's true that Milwaukee was impressive in its 4-game sweep over the Miami Heat.  But NBA teams off 4-0 Sweeps have covered just 36% over the last 31 years in Game 1 of their next series if they weren't laying 7+ points, and their opponent was NOT off a series sweep.  Even worse for Milwaukee:  Brooklyn is playing tonight's game with revenge from back-to-back losses to the Bucks last month.  And revenge-minded teams have gone 23-8 ATS (in the quarterfinal round, forward) at home in Game 1 of a series.  Finally, Milwaukee's been horrific away from home off 4+ wins, when facing a revenge-minded, rested opponent, as it's covered just 25.8% ATS since 1990, including 0-9 ATS since March 31, 2019.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Blazers lost Game 5 at Denver, in double-overtime, to fall behind in this series, three-games-to-two.  But we'll look for the Blazers to level this series at three games apiece tonight, as teams favored by more than 4 points, and facing elimination in a first round series, have cashed 68% since 2001, including 88% vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .620.  Additionally, Denver is 39-68 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The road team has gone 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series (and is 8-1 the last nine meetings), and we'll back the road team, Dallas, tonight.  The Mavericks are a solid 118-74 off a loss vs. an opponent off a win.  And underdogs have cashed 67.6% since 1991 off a 22-point (or worse) playoff defeat, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Dallas.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Knicks swept the Hawks, 3-games-to-none, in the regular season, but have dropped the last two games (by 11 and 17 points) to fall behind in this series, 3-games-to-1.  So, if the Knicks can't win tonight, they'll be ousted from the playoffs.  We'll lay the points, as favorites off back to back double-digit losses, have gone 63% ATS at home in the playoffs since 1991.  Take New York.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Phoenix finds itself in a 2-1 series hole after dropping Games 2 + 3 to the Lakers by scores of 109-102 and 109-95.  The good news for Phoenix is that NBA teams down 2-games-to-1 have gone 16-4 ATS if they lost Game 3 by 14+ points, including 8-0 ATS if their win percentage was not worse than their opponent's.  The Suns are 6-2 ATS their last eight off back to back point spread defeats.  And NBA road underdogs are 73-54 ATS in the playoffs off two ATS losses if they owned a better W/L percentage than their opponent.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won here in Game 3, but are a miserable 43-69 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 1-10 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for Denver this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that #3-seeded teams are a poor 32-56 ATS off an upset playoff win, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Portland minus the points.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Miami is just one loss away from its summer vacation, so this is a 'must win' game for Erik Spoelstra's men.  I believe it will rise to the occasion, as Miami is 53-25 ATS off back to back losses, when matched up against an opponent off a straight up win.  Additionally, in the first 3 rounds of the NBA playoffs, home underdogs of less than 6 points have cashed 64.9% since 1991 off a SU/ATS home playoff loss.  Take Miami.

At 9:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  We played on Los Angeles in Game 2, and were (obviously) disappointed with the result, as the Mavericks upset L.A. for the 2nd straight game, 127-121, as a 7-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a powerful 144-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upsets that are not favored by 2+ points in their current game.  Even worse for the Mavericks:  they're 2-13 ATS their last 15, and 33-66-1 ATS their last 100, off back to back underdog ATS wins when they're not getting 6+ points in their current game.  And the Clippers are 22-8 ATS on the road off a loss.  Finally, NBA favorites off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and down exactly two games in a Playoff series (i.e., 0-2 or 1-3), are 60-39-3 ATS since 1991.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks made a statement in Games 1 + 2, as they were able to win a nail-biter (109-107) as well as a blowout (132-98).  Certainly, the Bucks are out to avenge last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Heat.  But before we dismiss the Heat entirely, we must note that the first two games were at Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks have gone 28-10 this season.  It's been a completely different story outside of Wisconsin, as Milwaukee is a pedestrian 20-16 on the road this year (and a wallet-breaking 14-22 ATS).  We'll take Miami to bounce back in Game 3, as the Heat are an awesome 53-24-3 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  NBA underdogs of less than 6 points, off defeats by more than 32 points, have cashed 88% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Take Miami.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:05 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies struck first in this series with a 112-109 upset win at Salt Lake City, on Sunday night.  And that followed an upset post-season win at Golden State in the play-in round.  But we'll take Utah to rebound in Game 2 of this series.  Indeed, the Jazz are at their best as a favorite when coming off a home loss, and playing with revenge, as they're 33-14 ATS.  Even better:  #8-seeded underdogs are a nasty 3-18-1 ATS off a playoff win (and back to back wins, overall).  And underdogs off back to back upset post-season wins are a wallet-breaking 17-34-2 ATS.  Take the Jazz minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Clippers lost Game 1 here, at home, on Saturday, 113-103, as a 6-point favorite.  But we'll take Kawhi Leonard & Co. to bounce back on Tuesday in Game #2.  Indeed, since 2020, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the league off a loss, as they're 53-17 SU and 46-24 ATS, including 12-1 ATS off a double-digit loss when not laying more than 7 points.  Even better:  Dallas is a dreadful 0-11 ATS in the Playoffs following a SU/ATS win as an underdog (or PK) when getting more than five points from a team which owns a better W/L percentage.  Finally, the Clippers fall into 158-90, 85-35, 83-35, 94-39 and 75-21 ATS Playoff systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Trail Blazers have not had much playoff success over the years, as they're 68-103 ATS their last 171 including 32-53 ATS on the road.  But Portland went into Denver in Game 1 of this series, and pulled the upset, 123-109, as a 1-point dog.  We'll fade the Blazers in Game 2, as .700 (or worse) road teams up 1-0 in a playoff series are 0-9-2 ATS if matched up against a division rival, and not getting 7+ points.  Additionally, the Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS their last six, and 36-11-1 ATS their last 48 at home, off a home loss by more than 10 points, provided the Nuggets weren't getting more than 2 points in their current game.  Take the Nuggets to level this series at 1-game apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  If the Trail Blazers win this game, they will avoid the dreaded play-in round, and be seeded #6 in the Western conference.  Denver also would like to win, but their benefit of securing the #3 seed rather than the #4 seed isn't as great as Portland's.  It's true that Denver won its 3rd straight game (and 2nd straight by double-digits) when it defeated Detroit, 114-103, on Friday.  But the Nuggets are a poor 3-14 ATS off back to back double-digit wins.  Meanwhile, Portland falls into a 28-6 ATS division revenge angle of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home favorites of -6 (or more) points in the regular season.   Lay the points with the Trail Blazers.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder have lost 23 of their last 24 games, and are clearly pointing ahead toward the draft lottery.  They've lost their last five games by 21, 39, 28, 16 and 16 points.  Los Angeles still has an incentive to win this game for playoff positioning, and will also look to remove the stench from a 122-115 loss at Houston on Friday.  The Clippers are 22-7 ATS their last 29 on the road off a loss.  Take the Clippers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavs have not been competitive down the stretch, as they've lost 12 of 13 games, including a 15-point defeat at the hands of Washington, on Friday.  Interestingly, the Nets have dropped both meetings this season to the woeful Cavaliers.  And they lost each by 12 points!  With that as a backdrop, we'll take Brooklyn to close out their season with a big win this evening.  Brooklyn falls into a 166-98 ATS revenge angle of mine, while Cleveland is a nasty 13-31 ATS off a point spread defeat this season, and 27-48 ATS off a loss by 15+ points.  Take the Nets.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets are 17-54 this season after upsetting the Clippers to snap a 7-game slide.  But faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And this is a great spot to do so, given it's Houston's final road game of the season.  The Rockets fall into a 13-57 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in late season games, while Atlanta applies to a 120-55 ATS 'momentum' system, based on its 116-93 victory over Orlando on Thursday.  Lay the points with the Hawks.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies won their fifth straight game on Friday, with a 1-point triumph over Sacramento.  They'll now travel to San Francisco to play a critical game (for both teams) vs. Golden State.  Because of the importance of this afternoon's game, Warriors' coach Steve Kerr rested his stars on Friday because this Sunday game would be for "all the marbles" anyway.  But the Warriors won that Friday game, 125-122.  That was the Warriors' fifth straight win and cover, and I look for them to stretch their streak to six straight this afternoon.  The Warriors fall into an 84-45 "Last Home Game" system of mine, while Memphis applies to a negative 48-76 ATS "Last Road Game" system which goes against certain teams in their final road game that are headed to the playoffs.  And Memphis is also a wallet-breaking 24-42 ATS off 5+ wins.  Take the Warriors minus the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Charlotte.  This season finale is important to each of these two teams because of playoff positioning.  But we'll take the homestanding Wizards, who play this game with revenge from a double-digit home loss to the Hornets on March 30.  The Wizards are 51-33 ATS when playing with revenge, including 17-9 ATS this season.  Moreover, Washington won its previous game, 120-105, on Friday vs. Cleveland.  And the Wizards are 11-1 ATS this season off a double-digit win.  Lay the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Boston.  Last night, the Knicks defeated Charlotte, 118-109, in overtime, and they'll now take on the Boston Celtics, who are locked into the #7 seed after winning yesterday vs. the Timberwolves.  That win by the Celtics snapped their four-game losing streak, which was important for Brad Stevens' team.  But off that win, I expect a less intense effort by the Celtics this afternoon, given there's really nothing to play for.  New York lost by two points in the previous meeting vs. Boston, but is 15-6 ATS when playing with revenge this season.  And the Knicks also fall into 74-37 and 64-34 ATS "Last Home Game" systems of mine.  Take New York minus the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Chicago.  The Bulls were officially eliminated from the Playoffs last night when the Washington Wizards bested the Cleveland Cavaliers, 120-105.  Chicago will now travel to play the Nets, who are still locked in a battle with Milwaukee for playoff seeding.  These two teams met earlier this week in the Windy City, and the Nets won that game, 115-107.  That was, ironically, the same score of the teams' first meeting this season -- but that game was won by Chicago.  We'll take the homestanding Nets, as they fall into a 27-3, 90% ATS late season system of mine, which is based on their current win streak.  Even better:  coach Steve Nash has stated that his All-Star triumvirate of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving will all play in this game.  And it will be the first time this troika has played together vs. the Bulls, and just the 8th time all season they all suited up for a game.  Take Brooklyn to blow out Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Philadelphia 76ers.  These two teams played back-to-back games in January, and the Sixers won both meetings.  But both were in Philadelphia.  And each game was played when the Heat was playing awful basketball.  The defending Eastern conference champs got off to a 7-14 start (6-13-1 ATS), but they've been playing very good basketball since.  Indeed, over its last 48 games, Miami is 31-17 SU and 26-21-1 ATS).  This will be Miami's final home game of the season, while it will also be the 76ers' final road game.  And that set of events has triggered a very good 99-59-4 ATS "last home game" system of mine, which has gone 26-7-2 ATS since 2013, as well as a second "last home game" system which has cashed 84 of 129 since 1991.  Although both of these teams would certainly like to win tonight's game for playoff positioning, it's less important to the 76ers, as they only need to win one of their final three games to secure the conference's #1 seed.  And Philly has two very winnable home games vs. the Magic on deck.  The Heat, on the other hand, are locked in a three-way battle for home court advantage with the Hawks and Knicks.  And Miami has a difficult finishing schedule with road games at Milwaukee and Detroit on the weekend.  I look for Miami to get the win tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Utah.  After dropping seven of eight games in April, the Blazers have caught fire.  Since April 27, they've won eight of nine, including 5-1 SU/ATS on the road.  Tonight, they'll be in Salt Lake City to take on the league's #1 team, Utah.  Portland has yet to defeat Utah this season, but the Jazz are currently playing short-handed, as Donavan Mitchell and Mike Conley remain sidelined.  Portland blew out the Spurs (124-102) and Rockets (140-129) at home in their last two games -- both at home.  And that bodes well for Portland tonight, as it's 27-10 ATS on the road off back to back home wins, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +5.5 points.  Finally, the Jazz are a wallet-breaking 5-24-1 ATS vs. double-revenging foes, if the Jazz were not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  Memphis comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Toronto and New Orleans, and now sits just a half-game behind Golden State for the all-important #8 seed in the Play-In Round.  Likewise, Dallas is playing well, with four straight wins.  And the Mavericks also triumphed over Memphis in the first two meetings this season.  But we'll take the revenge-minded Grizzlies as a home underdog tonight, as they're 21-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Even better:  Memphis is 21-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a win, provided Memphis was not favored by more than 2 points.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over New Orleans.  The NBA's Western conference has a great race between the Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors coming down the stretch.  Both teams have lost 33 games and, as it now stands, would meet each other in the 'play-in' round should the season end today.  But there will be a significant advantage conferred to the team which finishes with the better record, as it will only have to win one of two 'play-in' games, while the team with the lesser record will have to win two 'play-in' games to advance into the conference quarterfinals.  So, these final games are ultra-important for Memphis.  We'll lay the points tonight, as the Grizzlies play with revenge from a 31-point blowout loss to New Orleans earlier in the season.  And NBA teams with a better record than their opponent, have gone 71-48-2 ATS if they were playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  With the Pelicans in off an upset win over Charlotte on Sunday, we'll fade Stan Van Gundy's men tonight.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Denver.  We played against Denver last night, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who won, 127-120, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  "Out of the frying pan, and into the fire" would certainly apply to Denver's situation tonight, as it has to go from playing the league's #1 team to a game against a rested Nets squad.  And, to make matters worse, the Nets have lost their last four games SU/ATS, so they'll be in an ornery mood tonight.  Denver is a poor 52-96-1 ATS at home when playing without rest.  And it's 0-8 ATS its last eight (and 8-29 ATS its last 37) against the Nets, if it wasn't favored by 5+ points.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points with New York.  Last week, we took the Suns at the Knicks, and were rewarded with an 8-point win, 118-110.  And we'll come right back with Phoenix in this rematch.  The Suns were upset by Atlanta, 135-103, on Wednesday.  But they're 45-14 ATS their last 59 off an upset road loss.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  San Antonio dropped its fifth straight game on Wednesday, 126-94, at Utah, while the Kings won for the fourth straight time, 104-93, at Indiana.  The Spurs are in the 10th spot right now, and need to stay ahead of Sacramento and New Orleans to qualify for the play-in round.  Coming into tonight, the Spurs are 1.5 games in front of the Pelicans, and 2.5 games clear of Sacramento.  This game is the only match-up left on the schedule which pits two of the three teams, so this game will be critical in determining which of the three teams earns a post-season berth.  We'll take the Spurs minus the points, as the Silver and Black have gone 42-12 ATS as a favorite off a loss by 18+ points, if their opponent was off a point spread win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets blew out New York, 113-97, on Wednesday, for their 18th win over their last 22 games.  But off that 16-point blowout, we will fade the Nuggets tonight, as they're 16-38 ATS on the road off a win by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with the Jazz.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Dallas.  The Cavaliers come into this game on an 8-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will play the Mavericks twice this weekend (today, and Sunday).  We'll grab the points with Cleveland in this game, as rested road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, and 7 ATS losses in a row, are a solid 88-54-3 ATS, including 29-10 ATS vs. foes playing their third game in four nights.  And that's the situation here, as the Mavericks played last night vs. Brooklyn, as well as on Tuesday, at Miami.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta comes into tonight's game off a 3-game SU/ATS sweep of its home stand, including a blowout win last night over Phoenix.  Meanwhile, the Pacers check in off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We'll take Indiana tonight, and go against the Hawks, as unrested NBA road teams off 3 SU/ATS home wins are a poor 31% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Pacers as a home underdog on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Dallas.  The Nets were drilled, 115-98, earlier this season by Dallas, so they will seek revenge in this rematch in Texas.  And they're 45-22 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, so that bodes well for the Nets tonight.  It's true that Brooklyn comes into this game off 3 straight losses.  But .650 (or better) road favorites have covered 57% over the last 31 years as road favorites of 3+ losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bulls are favored on the road tonight, even though they have a worse record than Charlotte, and have dropped each of their last four games, SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home underdog Hornets.  But consider that NBA road favorites (or PK), that are off back to back SU/ATS losses, have covered the spread 67% since 1990 against .400 (or better) foes that have a better W/L record.  More good news for Chicago:  leading scorer Zach Levine (27.5 ppg) should return to action tonight.  Lay the points with Chicago.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Pacers were defeated, 154-141 by the Wizards on Monday, while Sacramento won last night, 103-99, in Oklahoma City.  That was Sacramento's 3rd straight win, and 8th cover (against just two ATS losses) in its last 10 games.  When these two teams met in Sacramento earlier this season, the Kings upset the Pacers, 127-122.  But I love Indiana to turn the tables tonight, as it's 22-11 its last 33 as a revenge-minded favorite.  And it's 49-24 ATS off a loss by 13+ points, if it's now matched up against a .400 (or better) foe.  Take the Pacers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Golden State Warriors.  Last night's loss to the Warriors may have been New Orleans' death knell, as it now trails the 8th-seeded Warriors by four games, and the 10th-seeded San Antonio Spurs by 2.5 games, with just seven to play.  Tonight, the Pelicans will get another crack at Golden State in the 2nd of this 2-game series.  And New Orleans knows it must win this home game, as it faces an extremely difficult schedule down the stretch.  After tonight, the Pels will hit the road for 5 straight games -- all against teams currently qualifying for the Playoffs.  And then New Orleans will come back home to face the Lakers to end the regular season.  We'll take New Orleans tonight as a small favorite, as they fall into a 64% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of a back to back set against the same opponent.  Additionally, the Warriors are 30-50 ATS their last 80 games off a SU win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Knicks won (and covered) again on Sunday, as they blew out the Houston Rockets, 122-97.  That was New York's 14th ATS win in its last 15 games played.  Tonight, New York will be saddled with playing without rest, while Memphis will be rested following its shocking loss on Saturday at Orlando.  Memphis was up by nine points entering the 4th quarter, but fell, 112-111, to the Magic.  But off that loss, Memphis falls into an 83% ATS (since 1991) system of mine which has won 14 in a row.  Even better:  the Grizzlies lost in overtime, 133-129, earlier this year at New York (also blowing a 15-point lead in that game), but are 36-21 ATS, 63%, when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are 4-14 ATS, 22%, on the road vs. a foe it upset in the previous meeting.  And, finally, revenge-minded teams that gave up 125+ points in an upset loss are 102-68 ATS, 60%, when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  With Memphis in off a game where they blew a big lead, and playing with revenge against an opponent that also mounted a big comeback win, I fully expect the Grizzlies to be ultra-focused tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.