Sports Picks & Predictions

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies minus the points over Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles enter tonight's Zootown Classic game, at Dahlberg Arena, off back to back upset wins to start the tourney.  They defeated NC Wilmington on Wednesday, 80-66, as a 2-point dog.  Then they also upset UC San Diego last night, 56-55.  Now, they'll take on the homestanding Grizzlies.  Unfortunately, unrested teams, off back to back upset wins, have covered just 26% on the road in the regular season since 1990 vs. foes off a SU win.  Take Montana minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Wizards were favored by four points at New Orleans on Wednesday, yet were blown out by 25, 127-102.  We'll take Washington to bounce back, as NBA road favorites of -4 (or more) points, off 24-point (or worse) upset losses, have covered 61.3% over the last 32 years.  Take the Wizards.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Orlando.  The Bulls were upset by Houston two nights ago.  And they also were upset by the Pacers two games back.  Off those two upset defeats, we'll step in and take the Bulls as a road favorite this evening, as > .600 favorites, off back to back upset losses, have gone 136-97 ATS in the regular season vs. foes off a loss.  Take Chicago

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns have ripped off 14 straight wins.  But their six road games in this stretch were against Sacramento, Memphis, Houston, Minnesota, San Antonio and Cleveland.  And of these teams, only Memphis made last year's Playoffs -- and that was as a #8 seed.  The number has also caught up to the Suns, as they've covered just one of their last six games.   This will be the first time this season that the Knicks have been installed as a home underdog.   But, dating back to last season, they're 4-1 ATS their last five as a home dog.  Grab the points.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Portland State.  This is a momentum play for us, as Iowa comes into tonight's game off a 48-point thrashing of Western Michigan.  Iowa is now 5-0 on the season, and has outscored its opposition by 31.2 ppg.  And it's covered the spread by an average of 6.10 ppg.  Portland State, meanwhile, has a negative point spread differential (-8.25), and has covered just 38% as underdogs vs. non-conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Iowa has also covered 63% as a big favorite of -23 (or more) points.  Lay the points with the Hawkeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Iona.  This game will be played at HP Field House, in Orlando, FL.  Rick Pittino's Gaels upset Alabama yesterday, in the first round of this ESPN Events Invitational, as a 13-point underdog.  And that avenged a 68-55 loss to the Crimson Tide in the opening round of last year's NCAA Tournament.  Off last night's huge emotional victory, we will fade Iona tonight.  Indeed, teams that avenged non-conference tourney losses as underdogs of 7 (or more) points have covered their next game just 25% since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for the Gaels tonight.  Nor does the fact that Iona has covered 0 of 9 off an upset win as a dog of 6+ points.  Or that the Bruins are 13-4 ATS away from home vs. .880 (or better) foes.  Lay the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats' undefeated record will be put to the test this afternoon, as the Pirates certainly have the wherewithal to pull off the outright upset.  ECU has won four straight, and has covered six of seven coming into this contest.  And they've scored 45, 30 and 38 in their last three games.  Faithful followers know I love playing on home dogs that can score.  And home underdogs off 3+ wins, in which they've scored 113+ points, have cashed 60% over the last 42 years, including 14-3 ATS their last 17 when getting more than 7 points from an undefeated team.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State.  This game will be played bright-and-early on the West Coast -- a necessity since that was the only way for it to be televised by CBS.  We'll take the homestanding Aztecs as an underdog.  SDSU is 10-1 on the season.  And teams with a > .900 record have gone 74-46-5 ATS as home underdogs when matched up against opponents off a SU win, including 28-11 ATS if their opponent covered the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  That bodes well for Brady Hoke's men today.  As does the fact that SDSU is 12-5 ATS in its final home game of the season.  Take the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles pulled off a big upset last week, when they stunned Western Michigan, 22-21.  But they'll find the sledding tougher in Mt. Pleasant this afternoon, as the Chippewas are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, and have covered the spread in those three games by 20.5, 21.5 and 17.5 points.  Dating back 42 years, home teams off 3 straight covers by double-digits have cashed 60% when matched up against a conference foe off an upset win.  Even worse:  Eastern Michigan is a wallet-busting 9-25 ATS on the road off a home win.  Take Central Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Michigan State.  This game tips off early in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas.  Michigan State comes into the game off an upset win over UConn, 64-60, as a 2.5-point underdog.  They'll now take on the defending champion Bears, who eked out a 69-61 win over Virginia Commonwealth, as a 13.5-point favorite.  But Baylor is 12-7 ATS off a point spread loss.  And it also falls into a very good 140-67 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off ATS defeats.  Take the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Ole Miss.  This Egg Bowl rivalry is one of the best in College Football, and one reason for this is that the state of Mississippi has no professional sports teams or major cities.  The rivalry dates back to 1901, when Mississippi St (then known as Mississippi A&M) defeated Ole Miss, 17-0.  Ole Miss currently leads the series 63-46-6, including a win last year, 31-24, in Oxford.  Tonight's game will be played in Starkville, and we'll take the revenge-minded Bulldogs.  The revenger in this series has done quite well, as it's gone 24-15-1 ATS, including 9-1 ATS its last 10 when it owned a win percentage of .600 (or better).  Even better:  the Bulldogs come into this game off momentum-building, back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  And they have covered the last five in a row, culminating in last week's 55-10 thrashing of Tennessee St.  The Rebels have struggled over the years in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 points or less, as they've gone 18-33-2 ATS, including 1-12 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Dallas.  The Raiders sprinted out to a 5-2 start, including two impressive wins against Denver and Philadelphia following the Jon Gruden resignation.  But then WR Henry Ruggs caused real damage to the team (not to mention himself, and the woman he killed), and the Raiders proceeded to lose their next three games to the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals.  Las Vegas is 5-5, so it needs to win this afternoon to get back in the Wild Card hunt.  We'll take the points, as .500 (or better) NFL teams, off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points, have cashed 65.7% since 1980 vs. .700 (or better) opposition.  Additionally, the Cowboys have covered just 10 of 37 games as a home favorite vs. non-division foes, if that opponent entered off a home loss.  Take the Raiders + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose St Spartans + the points over Fresno St.  The Spartans suffered a 31-point upset loss at the hands of Utah St last week, 48-17, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  But prior to that loss, the Spartans had covered four straight games.  This afternoon, San Jose has been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points, as we note that Mountain West Conference home dogs of more than 3 points have gone 41-20 ATS in their final home game of the season, including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss.  Take San Jose.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Portland.  The Luke Walton era came to an unceremonious end, when he was fired a couple of days ago.  Alvin Gentry is the interim coach, and Sacramento dropped its first game with him manning the sidelines, 102-94, to Philadelphia.  Tonight, the Kings will host the Trail Blazers, who are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog, as the Kings fall into a superb 31-6 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams against foes off 3 ATS wins.  Take Sacramento + the  points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks have won 5 straight, while the Spurs have lost 5 straight.  But the Spurs are 61-20 ATS at home vs. Eastern conference foes, if the Spurs were off a loss, and their opponent was not off a SU/ATS loss.  Take San Antonio + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee.  The Pistons come into this game off an 8-point home loss last night.  But Detroit is a solid 5-0 ATS its last five, and 24-9 ATS its last 33 off a home defeat, including 6-0 ATS when getting 9+ points.  Take the Pistons.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Houston.  The Bulls were blasted in their last game by 32 points.  We'll take Chicago to rebound tonight, as road favorites off an upset home loss by more than 25 points have covered 63.1% since 1990.  Take Chicago.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Sam Houston State.  The Mustangs were upset by Loyola Marymount on Monday, but we'll take them to bounce back tonight vs. the Bearkats, as they're 26-2 SU and 19-7-2 ATS off a loss, when favored by more than 4 vs. a non-conference foe.  Take SMU.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks plus the points over Cal State Fullerton.  Each of these teams played Rio Grande Valley over the past two days.  On Monday, the Vaqueros upset the Lumberjacks, 82-80.  Then, last night, Rio Grande also upset Fullerton, 72-67.  We'll grab the points with the Lumberjacks, as they're 15-4 ATS as an underdog of +5 (or more) points off an upset loss, including 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Take Northern Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Brooklyn Nets.  This is a revenge game for the Celtics, who were ousted in last year's playoffs by Brooklyn.  We'll take Boston, as it falls into a super revenge system of mine which is 73-25 ATS since 1991.  Take the Celtics.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets have been installed as a big road favorite tonight.  Unfortunately, they're 3-8 ATS their last 11 when laying 6+ points on the road.  Meanwhile, the Magic are 29-22 ATS their last 51 division contests, including 13-7 ATS vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win.  Take Orlando.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen minus the points over Massachusetts Lowell, as UMass falls into 55-20 and 91-54 ATS systems of mine that play on certain big home favorites off a SU loss.  The Minutemen lost to Ball State at the Jersey Mike's Classic, 89-86, on Sunday.  And that continued a long-term trend for the Minutemen.  UMass is 2-0 SU/ATS at home this season, but 0-4 ATS away from home.  And it's 18-7 ATS its last 25 at home, compared to 11-23 ATS its last 34 away from home.  So, with the Minutemen back in the friendly environs of the Mullins Center, we'll lay the points with UMass on this Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over VCU.  This game will be played in the Bahamas, in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament.  Syracuse comes into this game off an upset loss to Colgate, 100-85, on Saturday.  We'll lay the points with Jim Boeheim's men, as they're 23-11 ATS off an upset defeat.  Take Syracuse.

At 2:30 pm (TIME CHANGE), our selection is on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks minus the points over Drexel.  The Gamecocks were supposed to meet Abilene Christian in the first round of this Baha Mar Hoops Tourney, but the Wildcats had to pull out due to COVID-19 protocols.  So, the Gamecocks opened against Valparaiso, instead.  The Beacons won that game, 78-70, and the Gamecocks had yesterday off.  We'll play on Jacksonville State off that defeat, as it falls into one of my favorite NCAA Basketball systems which is 72-27 ATS since 1990.  Additionally, the Dragons are 0-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win when priced from +2 to +6.5 vs. non-conference foes.  Take Jacksonville State.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Rider Broncs minus the points over Bucknell.  These two teams met, coincidentally, seven days ago at Bucknell.  The Bison won that game, 81-74.  They'll now meet in the final round of the Cancun Challenge, and we'll take the revenge-minded Broncs, as they fall into a 65% ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Detroit. The Heat's 5-game ATS win streak was snapped on Saturday, in a 103-100 loss to the Wizards.  Still, Miami ranks #3 in the NBA in point spread differential (+4.88), and #2 in the league in ATS win percentage (.705).  Conversely, Detroit has failed to cover the spread by 2.71 ppg, which ranks #24, and has covered just 43.7% of its games.  The Pistons are a poor 21-37 ATS as a home underdog of +7 (or more) points vs. winning opponents.  Meanwhile, Miami is a solid 76-52 ATS as a road favorite in non-division games, if it lost its previous game.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Kansas State.  For each of these two teams, yesterday's games were Jekyll-and-Hyde affairs.  Illinois was favored by 10, and broke out to an early 15-point lead vs. Cincinnati, but lost by 20, while K-State fell behind by 18 at the half, yet stormed back to lose by just 8 vs. Arkansas.  We'll lay the points with the Illini, as they're 10-5 ATS off an upset loss, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats have covered just six of 24 vs. non-conference foes off an upset loss, including 0-9 ATS if their foe was favored by more than six points in its defeat.  Take Illinois to bounce back tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Utah.  These teams met in last year's Playoffs, and the Jazz won the last four in the series to eliminate Memphis from the title chase.  We'll take the Grizz tonight, as we note that they fall into a 71% ATS NBA revenge system of mine.  Even better:  they were blown out by 43 two nights ago in Minnesota.  But that embarrassing defeat has triggered a great 68% system of mine which plays on certain rested teams off 40+ point losses.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over the New York Giants.  We had our 2nd biggest play last week on the Washington Football Team as a double-digit dog vs. Tampa, and were rewarded with a huge upset win against Tom Brady & Co.  But Brady's teams have bounced back strong off losses in his career, as they've gone 58-31 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS on Monday and Thursday night games, and 18-2 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back ATS wins.  With New York, indeed, riding a 3-game point spread win streak, we'll fade the Giants in Tampa.  Take the Buccaneers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Boston.  The Rockets have lost 15 of 16 games this season, and are 6-9 ATS. But they're 5-2-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog (compared to 0-6 ATS as a single-digit underdog, and 1-1 as a favorite).  And, going back further, we find the Rockets as 43-26 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 20-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take Houston.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets.  We played against the Hornets two nights ago in Atlanta, and were rewarded with a 10-point Hawks win (and cover).  We'll go against Charlotte again tonight, as they're a horrid 7-21 ATS their last 28 as a road underdog.  Lay the points with Washington.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders minus the points over Hofstra.  The Pride is 1-3 SU to start the year, but 3-1 ATS, while Richmond is 2-2 SU/ATS.  These teams met 11 months ago here, and the Pride upset Richmond, 76-71, as a 12-point favorite.  We'll lay the points with Richmond in this revenge match, as the Spiders are a solid 36-26 ATS with revenge, including 16-5 ATS if their foe has a winning ATS record.  Take Richmond.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Cornell.  The Big Red are 4-0 SU/3-0 ATS, but will have a tough time staying undefeated after this evening's game, in which they're a double digit underdog.  Cornell is just 1-9-1 ATS when priced from +16.5 to -10 points, off back to back wins.  Take Penn State minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over James Madison.  This early game is being played in Naples, FL, as part of the Naples Invitational.  James Madison enters this game off 4 straight wins (including upset win in its last two), and 3 straight covers.  But off those two upset wins, the Dukes fall into a negative 54-105 ATS system of mine.  Even worse, the Dukes are 15-34 ATS their last 49 off an upset win.  Take Kent State.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over the New York Knicks.  This is the 2nd meeting between these teams this season.  The Knicks won Round 1, with a narrow 104-103 victory in October.  But that game sets up our play tonight, which is one of my favorite NBA systems.  It's cashed 110 of 154, and involves playing on certain revenge-minded teams against unrested opponents.  Yesterday, the Knicks won a hard-fought game against Houston, while Chicago had Saturday off following its 114-108 triumph at Denver.  We'll take the rested revenger on this Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets avenged their playoff defeat by whipping Phoenix on Opening Night, back in October, 110-98.  Since that loss, the Suns have gone 12-2, including the last 11 in a row.  That doesn't bode well for Denver tonight.  Nor does the fact that it likely will have to play without its star Center, Nikola Jokic.  Phoenix is 52-31 its last 83 when playing with revenge, including 11-3 ATS if it lost by double-digits at home in the previous meeting.  Take the Suns.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the St Bonaventure Bonnies minus the points over Marquette.  The Golden Eagles enter this game off 3 straight upset wins over Illinois, Ole Miss and West Virginia.  But they now fall into a negative 16-43 ATS system of mine which fades certain .833 (or better) teams off back to back upset wins.  And Marquette has also just covered 30% over the last 32 seasons off back to back upsets.  We'll lay the points with St. Bonaventure on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Rhode Island.  This game is being played as part of the Sunshine Slam tournament in Daytona Beach, FL.  From time to time, teams meet twice in the pre-conference schedule, due to playing a team in a tournament's later rounds, and also having that team on its regular schedule.  And that's the case here, as these teams met just four days ago in Rhode Island.  The Rams won that game by eight points, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  We'll grab the points with Boston College in this rematch, as it falls into three of my better revenge systems.  Moreover, Rhode Island is a wallet-breaking 32-61 ATS at home, or on neutral courts when favored against a revenge-minded foe.  Take Boston College.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Dallas.  To borrow a line from Mark Twain, the reports of Kansas City's death have been an exaggeration.  Yes, the Chiefs have not looked, at times, like the juggernaut from 2019-20, but their 41-14 dismantling of Las Vegas last week should serve as a reminder that they are a force with which to be reckoned.  And I believe the Chiefs are still woefully undervalued.  Last week, they laid just 2.5 points on the road vs. the Raiders (after being favored by 7.5, 7, and 14.5 points at the Raiders the three previous seasons).  Now, they're a short home favorite vs. an admittedly good Dallas team.  Still, Kansas City is 46-24 ATS in the regular season when not laying more than 7 points.  Meanwhile, Dallas is 14-33-1 ATS vs. winning opposition when not getting 3+ points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Los Angeles.  In last year's playoffs, the Clippers bounced the Mavs off the hardwood, and onto the golf course, with a 7-game series win.  So, with revenge on its mind from that playoff ouster, we'll back the Mavericks in this underdog role this afternoon, as it falls into several of my better revenge systems.  Additionally, the Mavericks are a super 23-8 ATS their last 31 off a road defeat.  With Dallas, indeed, off a road loss at Phoenix, we'll grab the points with the Mavs.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Princeton.  Wayne Tinkle's Beavers were upset, 78-77, here in Corvallis by Samford, on Thursday.  The Bulldogs shot 50.9% for the game, which was the first time this season Oregon State allowed 44+ percent.  Still, Oregon State is a solid 19-8 ATS its last 27, including 8-2 ATS off a loss.  And the Beavers fall into a 66% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Green Bay is 8-2, and has covered nine straight games (winning eight, straight-up), heading into this divisional match-up vs. Minnesota, which is 4-5 on the season.  Unfortunately, teams off 9 straight ATS wins have gone 0-5 ATS since Jan. 8, 2005.  And road teams, at Game 11 forward, have cashed just 1 of 14 divisional games vs. losing opposition, if our road team's ATS win percentage was greater than .750.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins pulled off a massive upset last week when they defeated the Baltimore Ravens, as an 8.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 60 of 149 over the last 42 years following an upset win as a dog of more than 8 points, and just 37% when priced as a road favorite.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Utah.  The Kings were booed off the court last night, as they were walloped 108-89 here, at home, by the Toronto Raptors.  I fully expect a much better effort tonight, and they'll be playing a Jazz team against which they've been very competitive in two losses this season.  The Jazz won the first meeting here, 110-101, but the game was tied at 95 before Utah went on a 15-6 run to close the game.  Then, earlier this month, the Kings lost by just six at Utah, 119-113, as a 9-point road underdog.  For technical support, consider that home dogs of +6 (or more) points have covered 62% since 1990 after an upset loss the previous day, in which they failed to cover the spread by 14+ points.  Take Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha.  After an 0-2 road trip which saw the Grizzlies lose SU/ATS at Mississippi State (as an 11.5-point dog) and North Dakota (as a 7-point favorite), they'll no doubt be happy to be back home at Dahlberg Arena tonight.  And Montana has covered 67% at home vs. non-conference foes, if the Grizzlies were off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Meanwhile, the Mavericks are a poor 16-25 ATS their last 41.  And they fall into negative 43-92 and 91-158 ATS systems of mine that go against certain road teams vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Montana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Oregon.  The Utes come into this home game off back to back win over Stanford (52-7) and Arizona (38-29).  I love playing on home teams that can score, and especially when I don't have to lay a lot of points.  Indeed, over the last 42 years in the regular season, home teams not favored by 4+ points have cashed 60% following back to back wins away from home in which they scored more than 35 points.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets are currently riding a 5-game SU/ATS win streak following their 121-118 victory over Indiana last night.  Unfortunately, unrested road underdogs of +6 (or more) points, off 5 SU/ATS wins, have covered just 28% in the regular season since 1990.  And the Hawks are a super 30-8 ATS at home vs. unrested foes off 4+ wins.  Lay the points with Atlanta.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over Baylor.  The Wildcats have dropped the last three meetings vs. Baylor, but that streak should end here, in Manhattan, on Saturday.  Kansas State is on a 4-game win streak (and 3-game ATS win streak) following its 34-17 victory last Saturday against WVU.  And while Baylor also impressed last week with an upset win, at home, vs. then-undefeated Oklahoma, I expect a letdown away from home this weekend, as teams generally do just that off such wins (and especially when installed as a short road favorite, as they're 27-42 ATS).  Even worse, over the last 42 seasons, revenge-minded teams playing their final home game of the season, off a 17-point win, have gone 16-0 ATS when not laying double-digits vs. foes off an upset home win.  Take Kansas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Stanford.  This will be the Cardinal's second road game this season.  They were favored by 3 at Santa Clara in their first one, but were blown out, 88-72, by the Broncos.  In that game, Stanford allowed Santa Clara to shoot 59.6% from the floor.  The Cardinal have been consistently poor on the road for years, as they're 29-50 ATS their last 79, including 18-37 ATS as an underdog.  Take Baylor minus the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks won their biggest game, perhaps, since 2008's Orange Bowl victory over Virginia Tech, when they upset Texas last week.  The Jayhawks won, 57-56, in overtime, as a 31-point road underdog, and it was the first time since October 4, 2008 that the Jayhawks won on the Big 12 road!  Unfortunately, Kansas is back on the road in this game at TCU, which will be looking to redeem itself after a 63-17 blowout loss at Oklahoma State last weekend.  We'll go against Kansas, as Big 12 Conference teams are 0-10 ATS on the road off an upset road win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers minus the points over Illinois-Chicago.  The Ramblers won, 92-56, vs. Chicago St. on Tuesday.  And they're a terrific 57-32-1 ATS off a point spread win, including 27-10 ATS when favored by more than 6 points.  Even better:  that 36-point win against Chicago St. has triggered an 86-33 ATS 'momentum' system of mine.  Lay the points with Loyola-Chicago.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Michigan.  The Terps are 5-5 straight-up, but they've lost their last six to the spread.  And they need to win one of their final two games (Michigan, Rutgers) to attain Bowl eligibility.  It's true that Michigan has been a great point spread team this season, with an 8-2 ATS record.  But NCAA teams off an ATS win have gone 15-32 ATS vs. foes off 6+ ATS losses in a row.  And .500 (or better) teams off 6+ ATS losses have cashed 43 of 75 (57.3%), including 6-2 ATS as a home dog of +7 (or more) points.  With Michigan off a big road win against a good Penn State team, we'll look for a letdown this afternoon.  Take Maryland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves won their 2nd game of the season when they upset Louisiana Monroe last week, as a 3-point road underdog.  But they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row, as the Panthers have covered five straight (and seven of eight) heading into this game in Atlanta.  Last week's game was Georgia State's most impressive yet, as they won, 42-40, as a 12.5-point road underdog at Coastal Carolina.  And that bodes well for Georgia State here, as teams off a game where they covered the spread by 13+ points have gone 100-57 ATS as double-digit home favorites vs. foes off upset conference wins.  Lay the points with the Panthers.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Dayton Flyers minus the points over Austin Peay.  There's not been a team more disappointing this season than Anthony Grant's Flyers.  They're 0-3 ATS, and have failed to cover by 3.5, 19, and 28.5 points.  No other team has as bad a point spread differential (with at least 3 lined games) than does Dayton.  But this horrible start has, of course, led to an adjustment by the oddsmakers.  And this number, by my math, now confers great value on Dayton.  Indeed, the last time these two teams met, Dayton won by 28, as a 19.5-point favorite.  And Austin Peay's never been great against non-conference foes, as it's 29-106 SU and 52-78-5 ATS, including 0-41 SU and 12-28-1 ATS as an underdog of +14 (or more) points.  Take Dayton.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Richmond.  The Bulldogs have been one of the more reliable teams at home over the last several years, as they've gone 41-18 ATS at Knapp Center.  In their last game -- also here at home -- Drake routed South Dakota, 99-50.  And that 49-point blowout win has triggered very good 95-36 and 186-122 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine.  Lay the points with Drake.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Stanford.  This will be the Cardinal's second road game this season.  They were favored by 3 at Santa Clara in their first one, but were blown out, 88-72, by the Broncos.  In that game, Stanford allowed Santa Clara to shoot 59.6% from the floor.  The Cardinal have been consistently poor on the road for years, as they're 29-50 ATS their last 79, including 18-37 ATS as an underdog.  Take Baylor minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  Michigan State is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season, yet Sparty finds itself installed as a massive underdog against Ohio State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points but consider that, in matchups between unrested winning teams, underdogs of more than 14 points have covered just 28% since 1985, at Game 8 forward, when getting more than 14 in a regular season game, if they didn't own a worse W/L percentage!  That doesn't bode well for Michigan State, in Columbus on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Ohio State is 34-12-1 ATS when not laying more than 20 points, if its opponent owned a better ATS win percentage.  Take the Buckeyes to blow out Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners suffered their first loss of the season last week at Baylor, and are now 9-1 this season.  For all intents and purposes, that loss has eliminated Oklahoma from the National Title competition.  One of the things I love to do is play against certain teams that lose their first game late in the season, as they often suffer emotional letdowns following that initial defeat.  And this game vs. Iowa State is a very good place to step in and fade Oklahoma, as the Cyclones will play with revenge from a loss in last year's Big 12 Championship game.  Take Iowa State + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Oakland.  Alabama is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, but failed to cover the spread vs. South Alabama on Tuesday.  It was favored by 20.5, yet won by just five, 73-68.  Tonight, they'll host Oakland in the first match-up between these teams since 2013 (a game Alabama won by 20).  The Golden Grizzlies are 3-0 ATS to start this young season.  But they're also a horrid 0-13 SU and 2-10-1 ATS as an underdog off back to back point spread wins.  The Crimson Tide, meanwhile, are 5-0 SU/ATS at home off an ATS loss.  Lay the points with Alabama.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers minus the points over Wisconsin Green Bay.  This game is being played at the Jersey Mike's Classic, in St. Petersburg, FL.  The Panthers blew out Ball State last night, 73-60, as a 1.5-point favorite.  And that was their second straight blowout win, as they also trounced Trinity (FL), 111-48, last Friday.  Green Bay, meanwhile, has yet to win a game, as it's 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS.  We'll take the Panthers tonight, as they're 31-16 ATS away from home off a double-digit win.  And, even better, the favored team in matchups between the Horizon League and Conference USA has gone 34-14 ATS when priced from -2 to -13 points.  Take Florida International.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Brooklyn.  This will be Brooklyn's 3rd game in 4 nights, and Kevin Durant has just been scratched.  That's all we need to pull the trigger on Orlando as a big road underdog.  The Nets blew out Orlando, 123-90, earlier this season.  But NBA teams playing with revenge from a loss by more than 20 points are 8-1 ATS this year. Orlando also falls into a 66.0% ATS revenge system of mine, which plays on certain teams that lost at home to their opponent in the previous meeting.  Meanwhile, the Nets are a soft 42-63 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.  Take Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak following their double-digit victory over division-leading Washington, while Indy has dropped back to back games to start its 3-game road trip, which finishes tonight in the Queen City.  We'll take the points with the Pacers, as small underdog, as they fall into a 134-68 ATS system of mine which plays on certain sub-.389 teams off upset losses, while Charlotte is a wallet-breaking 6-23 ATS its last 29 at home off 3 SU/ATS Wins.  Take the Pacers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Marquette.  This game is being played as part of the Charleston Classic, in South Carolina.  Marquette enters off back to back upset wins over Ole Miss (78-72) and Illinois (67-66), while WVU is 3-0 after blowing out Elon, 87-68, last night.  We'll fade Marquette off its back to back upsets, as it's covered just one of its last seven following 2 upset wins, while WVU is also 11-3 ATS vs. foes off back to back upsets (including 5-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes).  And Marquette also falls into a negative 88-139 ATS system of mine that goes against certain teams off back-to-back upsets.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New England Patriots.  The Patriots have won and covered four straight games following their overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys.  And their last game was the most impressive, as they completely dismantled a good Cleveland Browns club, 45-7, as a 2.5-point favorite.  They'll now play a Falcons squad which was destroyed last week by Dallas, 43-3.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with New England, given that it won by 38 last week, while Atlanta lost by 40.  But consider that home underdogs, priced from +3 to +14 points, have gone 85-59 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points, if their opponent was off a win by more than 14 points.  Even better:  if our home dog gave up 37+ points in that previous game, while our road favorite scored 37+ points in its previous game, then our 85-59 stat zooms to a perfect 11-0 ATS.  Take Atlanta + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the East Tennessee State Buccaneers minus the points over South Carolina Upstate.  The Bucs were blown out by Tennessee, 94-62, on Saturday, but I love ETSU to bounce back this evening.  The Bucs are an impressive 28-11-2 ATS off a loss by more than 8 points, including 7-0 ATS the previous two seasons.  Meanwhile, the Spartans are a wallet-breaking 0-27 SU and 7-19-1 ATS as an underdog, priced from +6.5 to +20 points, including 1-8 ATS vs. a foe off a loss.  Take East Tennessee State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Detroit.  This is Ben Howland's seventh season as Mississippi State's head coach, and his men are off to a great start this season.  They blew out Montana by 37, and North Alabama by 26, while holding those two teams to 35 of 116 from the floor, combined (30.1%).  This stellar defense is in sharp contrast to that displayed by Detroit in its first two games, as Wyoming hit 34 of 62, while Toledo converted 29 of 60 vs. the Titans (51.6% combined).  The Bulldogs are an awesome 69-39-2 ATS since 2014 at home, here in Starkville.  Meanwhile, the Titans are a woeful 3-27 SU and 6-22-2 ATS as an underdog (or PK) against good defensive teams that give up 66.5 (or less) points per game, including 0-7-1 ATS as an underdog of 14+ points.  Lay the points with Miss State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Miami.  The Pelicans welcomed Brandon Ingram back last weekend from a 7-game absence due to an ankle injury.  Without Ingram in the lineup, New Orleans went 0-7 straight-up and 2-5 ATS.  And it lost by almost 15 points per game.  But with him back in the fold, they upset Memphis, 112-101, as a 3.5-point underdog, and then failed to cover by a mere half-point on Monday vs. the red-hot Wizards.  Ingram has poured in 50 points in these last two games, and I expect a further upswing by New Orleans tonight against a Miami Heat team which, itself, is dealing with injury issues.  Take New Orleans + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The up-and-down Nets were down last night, as they were blown out, 117-99, by Golden State.  But Steve Nash's Nets have been somewhat predictable this season, as they're 1-6 ATS off a point spread win, but 6-1 ATS off a point spread loss.  The Nets also fall into a strong 116-67 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off home blowout losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Charlotte.  Bradley Beal miss the past two days for bereavement, but will be back on the court tonight, as Washington looks to extend its win streak to six games.  The Hornets are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  But Charlotte's a dreadful 5-23 ATS at home off 3 SU/ATS wins, including 1-15 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or less.  Take Washington.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Harvard Crimson minus the points over Albany.  The Great Danes are 0-2 this season following a 77-56 loss here, at home, vs. Towson, and a road defeat in Philadelphia against LaSalle.  They'll now take on Tommy Amaker's Crimson, and we'll lay the points with the road team.  Harvard is 24-12-1 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Albany has covered just eight of its last 23 home games.  Additionally, the Great Danes fall into a negative 53-103 ATS system of mine based on their loss at LaSalle.  Take Harvard minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Baptist Lancers minus the points over Jackson State.  The Lancers have poured in 87 and 95 points in their first two games, which is not a surprise for this Rick Croy-coached team (the Lancers averaged 79.1 ppg last season).  In their last game, also against a SWAC Conference member (Mississippi Valley State), the Lancers won by 29, but failed to cover the 31-point spread.  But Cal Baptist is 10-4 ATS its last 14 off an ATS loss.  And Jackson State falls into negative 6-35 and 49-97 ATS systems of mine based on their start to this season.  Lay the points with the Lancers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over North Dakota State.  The Bison played last night at UNLV, and lost a tough one, 64-62, as a 3.5-point road underdog.  They'll now make the trek to Tucson, to take on Arizona, which has had the last three days off following its 104-50 blowout of Rio Grande Valley, on Friday.  We'll lay the points with Tommy Lloyd's men, as the Bison are 33-54 ATS as a road underdog, while Arizona has cashed 75% since 2014 when playing with at least 3 extra days of rest than its opponent.  Finally, the Wildcats are an impressive 31-0 straight-up, and 27-3-1 ATS at home when favored by 7+ points, if the 'Cats were off a 20-point (or better) blowout win, and covered the spread by at least 10 points in that prior game.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Charleston College.  The 18th-ranked Heels will pay a visit to TD Arena in Charleston tonight.  The last time, these two teams met here was in 2010, and the Cougars upset the Heels, 82-79, as a 13.5-point home dog.  But Carolina has won the two meetings since, including a 19-point SU/ATS win last season in Chapel Hill.  Charleston has been especially poor at home when they've not been the better team, as evidenced by their 8-20-1 ATS record at home when not favored by more than 2 points.  Take North Carolina.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Saint Louis.  Penny Hardaway's 11th-ranked Tigers come into this game off back to back blowout wins over NC Central and Tennessee Tech.  And they've been installed as a double-digit favorite over the Billikens.  We'll lay the points, as Saint Louis is a horrid 1-41 straight-up, and 10-32 ATS as a non-conference underdog of +6 (or more) points.  Take Memphis.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats minus the points over New Orleans.  Chris Collins' men are 2-0 SU/ATS after back-to-back wins over teams nicknamed the Panthers (Eastern Illinois + High Point).  New Orleans isn't the Panthers, but we'll still fade it on this Tuesday.  The Privateers have covered just 35.7% as a double-digit dog vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  And they lost SU/ATS here, at Northwestern, in 2016 and 2018 by 34 and 30 points, respectively.  The Wildcats are 26-14 ATS off back to back double-digit wins, and it also falls into a 70.4% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout wins.  Take Northwestern.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders minus the points over Georgia State.  The Spiders were upset by the Aggies of Utah State on Thursday, 85-74, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And that upset loss has triggered a very good 68.1% ATS system of mine.  Even better:  the Spiders are 13-3 ATS their last 16 following an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take Richmond.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the Chicago Bulls.  Tonight, the Bulls will once again be without All-Star center Nikola Vucevic, as he's sidelined following a positive COVID-19 test.  His absence will be particularly noticeable tonight, given the Lakers' frontcourt strength.  I expect Anthony Davis, who had 34 points and 15 rebounds yesterday, to have another great game.  Los Angeles has won eight straight in this series (5-2-1 ATS), and it also falls into a 101-54 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off home wins.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Phoenix.   The Phoenix Suns are on a roll, with 8 straight wins, and 7 straight covers following last night's 115-89 victory in Houston.  Unfortunately, this will be a tough scheduling spot for Monty Williams' men.  First, it will be Phoenix's 3rd road game in four days.  And the Suns are unrested, while Minnesota is rested.  So, even though the Suns are playing great ball, we will fade them tonight.  And, for technical support, consider that since 1991, unrested NBA teams off 2 SU/ATS wins have covered just 19 of 64 when playing their 3rd road game in four days against a rested foe, including 1-15 ATS if our road team was favored, and owned a win percentage of .610 (or better).   Take Minnesota.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Denver.  Both of these teams come into this game off big wins.  Dallas blew out San Antone on Saturday, 123-109, while Denver ran past Portland last night, 124-95.  When these two Western Conference rivals met last month, the Nuggets blew out the Mavs in Denver, 106-75.  But that 31-point loss has triggered a very good 63% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams that lost their previous meeting by 30+ points.   Even worse for Denver:  it's 19-41-1 ATS on the road off a win by more than 8 points.  Take Dallas minus the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Detroit.  The Pistons upset Toronto, 127-121, as an 7.5-point road underdog, on Saturday for their 3rd win of the season.  But, as faithful followers know, I love to go against bad NBA teams, with sub-.300 records, off wins.  And especially if they're playing at home off a road win as an underdog of more than 7 points.  Dating back 32 seasons, our bad teams have covered just 42% off that upset win.  Take Sacramento minus the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings here, in Cleveland, between the clubs.  The Cavaliers won Round 1 on Saturday, by two points, so we'll take the Celts in the rematch.  Over the last 42 years, road favorites have cashed 62% of the 2nd of back to back regular season meetings, if they lost the first meeting SU/ATS.  Take Boston.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNC-Greensboro Spartans minus the points over Coppin State.  This will be the Eagles' 5th game in 7 days -- all on the road -- and they've played these games in the states of Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut, and now North Carolina.  In its first four, Coppin State has gone 0-4 SU, and 2-2 ATS.  But one disturbing stat is that it's given up 103, 97, 81 and 89 points in its first four games, which is 13.5 ppg higher than its defensive average last season.  These two teams met in Baltimore last season, and the Eagles came away with an 85-80 victory.  I look for the Spartans to avenge that defeat, as it falls into 70-28 and 45-12 ATS Revenge systems of mine, as well as a 20-1 ATS angle which plays on certain revenge-minded teams against foes that give up 90+ points per game.  Take North Carolina-Greensboro.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Denver.  Last Sunday, the Broncos blew out Dallas, 30-16, as a double-digit underdog.  We had a big play on Denver last week, but will go against them here, as a home favorite.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams with a win percentage greater than .300, off a double-digit win as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 10 of 40 games.  That doesn't bode well for Denver on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Broncos are a woeful 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cards will be without QB Kyler Murray, and WR Deandre Hopkins this afternoon.  And that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Carolina (which will be starting its own backup QB in PJ Walker).  The Cardinals pulled off an upset last week against division rival San Francisco.  And that upset win over a division foe has triggered a very good 110-48-4 ATS system of mine, as well as a 119-73 ATS angle.  The Panthers have won + covered 5 straight in this series, including 10-point and 18-point upset wins the past two seasons.  Finally, the Cardinals are a dreadful 10-28 ATS as home favorites vs. foes not off an ATS win.  Take the Panthers as a road underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Arkansas-Pine Bluff.  Jeff Linder took over the Wyoming basketball program last season, and the Cowboys played great toward the end of the season.  They went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS to finish the regular season.  And then they also covered the point spread in both Mountain West tourney games, including a narrow 3-point loss (as a 15.5-point underdog) against #1-seeded San Diego State to finish the 2020-21 season.  Wyoming got this year off on a great note, as it blew out Detroit on Thursday, 85-47, as a 4.5-point favorite, for its 7th straight ATS win, dating back to last year.  I look for the Cowboys to notch their 8th straight cover this afternoon against a Pine Bluff team which has allowed 90+ points in each of its first two games this season.  Additionally, the Cowboys are 9-0 ATS their last nine (and 16-5 ATS their last 21) off a cover by 11+ points.  Lay the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans pulled off a stunning upset last week, as a 7-point road underdog, for their fifth straight victory and ATS win.  And their last four wins were all upsets, as they also upset the Colts, in overtime, two weeks ago, and the Chiefs and Bills before that.  Unfortunately for the Titans, favorites (or PK) off 3 straight covers have gone 0-9 ATS their last 9, and 22-53-2 ATS their last 75, while favorites off 4 straight upset wins have covered just 14% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Saints suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Falcons.  But NFL teams off upset losses have covered 52 of 75 vs. .750 (or better) teams off upset wins, if our team off the loss wasn't getting 6+ points in the current game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Cleveland.  The Browns upset division rival Cincinnati, 41-16, last Sunday, and will try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the Patriots.  But underdogs are a wallet-breaking 60-94 ATS off upset wins by 20+ points.  And .500 (or better) teams have gone 6-24 straight-up, and have covered just 7 of 30 games, against the Patriots in Foxboro, if our road team wasn't getting more than 7 points.  Take New England to blow out the Browns.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Lions are winless (0-8) on the season.  But they've actually performed better "in Vegas" than the 5-3 Steelers.  Detroit has gone 4-4 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 3-5 ATS after its point spread defeat this past Monday vs. Chicago.  We'll take the points with the Lions, as winless teams have gone 70-39 ATS as road underdogs of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against an opponent off a point spread defeat.  Take Detroit.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  When these two teams last met, the Bucs ousted Washington from the Playoffs, in a 31-23 win, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Once again, the Bucs are favored by a big number on the road, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams playing with revenge from a playoff defeat in the previous season have covered 73.3% when installed as a double-digit underdog.  Even better:  home underdogs priced from +7 to +13 points have gone 43-16 ATS vs. defending Super Bowl champions.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, Urban Meyer's Jaguars upset Buffalo, 9-6, as a massive 14.5-point underdog.  Can they pull off back-to-back upsets?  It's definitely not likely, for several reasons.  First, last week's game was at home, vs. a non-division foe, while this is on the road, against a division rival.  And NFL road underdogs of more than 4 points have gone 13-98 SU and 35-73-3 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog of more than 4 points.  Likewise, NFL teams off upset wins at home vs. non-division foes have gone 94-129 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, including 38-68 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Take the Colts minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Seton Hall Pirates minus the points over Yale.  Kevin Willard's Pirates got their campaign off to a promising start with a 93-49 victory over the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, as a 27-point favorite.  Now, they'll take on Yale, which should, once again, compete for the Ivy League title (which would be its 5th in 7 seasons).   The Pirates are 13-0 vs. Ivy League foes since 1990, and have gone 9-0 SU/ATS in their nine games against Ivy Leaguers since 2006.  The average margin of victory has been 18.2 ppg, while they've covered the spread by an average of 7.55 ppg.  Seton Hall is also 48-31-1 ATS its last 80 non-conference games, including 24-12-1 ATS here, at home.  But the clincher for us this afternoon is that Seton Hall is 12-0 ATS its last 12, and 22-2 ATS its last 24, vs. foes off a SU win, following a game where Seton Hall covered the spread by 12+ points, including a perfect 12-0 ATS here, at home.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  We played on Minnesota last night, and were rewarded with a 107-83 blowout win against the LA Lakers.  Minny will now stay in Los Angeles to play the Clippers, and they'll be out for revenge since they lost twice at home to the Clippers earlier this month.  Unfortunately for L.A., it's 7-18 ATS at home in the regular season vs. double-revenge-minded opponents, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Take the Timberwolves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Colorado.  Last year, the Buffaloes upset UCLA, 48-42, in Boulder, as a 7-point home underdog.  But with revenge on its mind, we'll lay the points with the Bruins, as it falls into a 68-36 ATS system of mind, which plays on certain rested home teams vs. unrested foes.  Even worse, last week, the Buffaloes upset Oregon State, 37-34, as an 11.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately, over the last 42 years, unrested teams off home upset wins have covered just 32.4% on the road vs. rested conference foes.  Take UCLA to blow out Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Portland Pilots minus the points over the Alcorn State Braves.  The Pilots come into this game off a 122-78 blowout of Willamette, and now will welcome the Braves to Chiles Center.  The Braves have started their 2021-22 campaign in the Pacific Northwest, and visited the cities of Pullman and Seattle, Washington earlier this week.  They lost those games to Washington State (85-67) and Seattle (69-66), and will finish this stretch with a game at #1-ranked Gonzaga, in Spokane, on Monday.  We will lay the points with Portland tonight, as the Pilots have gone 35-8 SU and 29-13-1 ATS when laying more than 3 points to non-conference foes.  Also, the Braves fall into negative 26-74 ATS and 43-98 ATS systems of mine, based on the stats of their first two games.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have won (and covered) four straight games, dating back to their stunning upset of then-undefeated Alabama.  We played on the Aggies in that upset win, but will step in and go against them as a road favorite in Oxford.  Texas A&M has gone 25-63 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .636 (or better) foes, including 4-12 ATS as a favorite, if A&M won at home the previous game.  Take Ole Miss.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over New Mexico.  The Bulldogs were shocked last week, 40-14, as a 4.5-point home favorite by Boise State.  But off that upset loss, in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 30 points, we'll look for Fresno to bounce back this evening.  This is Fresno's final home game of the year, and teams playing their final home game, off a loss by 20+ points, have gone 46-22 ATS when favored by 14+ points.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Stanford.  It's not often that one finds a team which has lost its last 11 meetings to an opponent also favored by more than 11 against that same opponent.  But that's our situation today, and we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Beavers.  Oregon State comes into this game off back to back upset losses at California, and at Colorado.  The good news is that they're playing a 3-6 Stanford team which is off 4 straight SU/ATS defeats, including a 52-7 loss to Utah last Friday.  We'll lay the points with the Beavers, as NCAA teams off back to back ATS losses as a road favorite have bounced back to cover 60% since 1980 vs. losing opposition.  Take Oregon State.

At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Miami.  The Jazz come into this game off a home upset loss at the hands of the Indiana Pacers.   And they will no doubt be looking to make amends in this game -- also in front of their home faithful.  Last week, we played on the Miami Heat at home vs. Utah, and were rewarded with a 118-115 victory, as a 1-point underdog.  This afternoon, though, we will back the homestanding Jazz in this revenge match.  Utah is 52-32-1 ATS when priced from -3.5 and -8.5, and playing with revenge, if Utah was off a SU/ATS loss in its previous game.  And Utah's also won the last 3 meetings against the Heat here in Salt Lake City by 18, 15 and 27 points.  Take the Jazz to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Evansville.  The Bruins lost their season opener, 92-80, to Ohio, as a 4-point favorite.  But that game was on the road; the Bruins are now back home where they've gone 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS since Jan. 4, 2020.  Belmont is also 64% ATS off a double-digit loss when matched up against non-conference foes, and it's 4-1 ATS its last five home openers.  Meanwhile, Evansville is a woeful 14-27-1 ATS away from home vs. foes off an upset defeat, including 1-9-1 ATS if their opponent lost its previous game by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with Belmont.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.