Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland.  We played against Boston in its last game, and easily got the $$$ when Chicago routed it, 120-102.  But off that blowout loss, we'll lay the points with the Celtics tonight, as Boston has cashed 60% ATS in the regular season since 1990 as a favorite off an 18-point (or worse) upset loss.  Lay the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Washington.  Indy was blown out, 124-109, by the Bulls on Wednesday.  But I look for it to rebound tonight, as it's cashed 63% since 2011 off a loss by more than 12 points, when matched up against .400 (or better) foes.  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta.  These two teams met here, in Detroit, two nights ago, and the Pistons lost that game by five points.  We'll take Detroit in this rematch, as it's 20-8 ATS at home off a SU home loss, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +5 to +7 points.  And Atlanta is a horrid 6-16-1 ATS on the road off a road win.  Take Detroit + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Miami.  We played on the Heat last night (which was a rare 5* play), and were rewarded with a 21-point blowout victory.  But we will fade Miami off that win, as it will be playing without rest against a rested Warriors club.  And Golden State will be looking to make amends for its 134-105 blowout loss at the hands of the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday.  The good news for Steph Curry & Co. is that .500 (or worse) NBA favorites have cashed 82% over the last 33 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 17 points, and their opponent was off a road win by more than 17 points.  Additionally, the Warriors have cashed 64.7% as a favorite off a loss by 29+ points.  Take Golden State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Clippers had one of their worst games in the last couple of years when they lost outright, 108-94, to the Thunder, as a 5.5-point road favorite.  They'll get a second bite at the apple tonight, in OKC, as the two teams will meet again in this rematch.  We'll take the Clippers to redeem themselves, as Los Angeles is 36-20-1 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, including 16-8 ATS when playing with revenge, and 10-2 ATS off a road game where it failed to cover the spread by 19.5+ points.  Even better, the Clippers are 12-2 ATS when playing an opponent in back to back games, if they lost the first meeting, and were not favored by more than 7 in the next meeting.  Meanwhile, OKC is 4-13 ATS at home when they also defeated their opponent in OKC's previous game.  And it's 5-15 ATS off an upset home win, when priced from -2 to +8.5.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Heat are off to a 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS start after earning the #1 seed in the Eastern conference last year.  Meanwhile, Portland is a super 4-0 following its 135-110 upset win over Denver (its 4th straight upset to start the season).  We'll take Miami tonight, as it's 62-30 ATS off an upset loss, when matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  And it's also 27-8 ATS on the road when on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are 18-44 ATS off a win over a division rival by more than 18 points, including 0-9 ATS if Portland wasn't favored by 4+ points in that previous game.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston.  We played on Houston two nights ago, and got the $$$ when it defeated the Jazz, 114-108.  We'll take Utah in this rematch, as the Jazz fall into a "right-back revenge" system of mine which is 107-62 ATS.  Moreover, Houston is 26-44-2 ATS off a point spread win.  Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  The T-Wolves were blitzed by San Antonio on Monday, so they'll look for revenge tonight.  Minnesota was favored by 8.5 points in that game.  And that was San Antonio's 3rd straight upset win (it also upset Philly as a 13-point dog, and Indy as a 1.5 point dog).  Unfortunately for the Spurs, NBA underdogs off back to back upset wins as 7-point dogs, have covered just 6 of 28 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Portland.  The Nuggets pulled off an upset win yesterday in Los Angeles, and now return home to take on the Denver Nuggets.  We'll lay the points with Denver, as NBA road favorites off back to back wins have covered 59% since 1990 vs. unrested division rivals off upset road wins.  Lay the points with the Nuggets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over Utah.  The Jazz have surprisingly opened the season with three straight upset wins.  But I look for that streak to come to a halt tonight, down in Houston.  Indeed, since 1990, winning teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 26.3% as underdogs vs. foes off a loss.  And the Jazz are also a wallet-breaking 5-19-1 ATS their last 25 on the road when not laying 3 or more points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Boston.  We played against Chicago on Saturday, and were rewarded with a 128-96 blowout win by the Cleveland Cavs.  Tonight, we'll switch gears and play on Chicago, as it's cashed 73.9% in the regular season as underdogs off a loss by 32+ points.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Grizzlies were blown out, 137-96, in Dallas, on Saturday.  But off that debacle, we'll lay the points with Memphis here, at home, tonight.  The Grizzlies are a solid 22-8 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Memphis.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Miami Heat.  These two teams met on Saturday here, in Miami.  And the Heat edged the Raptors, 112-109, for their first win of the season.  Unfortunately for Miami, losing teams have covered just 32.1% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back home meetings, if they won the first of the two meetings, straight-up.  Take Toronto + the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Indiana.  The Sixers are off to a poor 0-3 start.  But I love Philly to bounce back strong tonight, on Monday, as winless, double-digit favorites have covered 71% over the past 33 seasons vs. foes not off back-to-back losses.  Lay the points with the Sixers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Clippers.  We played against Phoenix on Friday, and got the $$$ when the Trail Blazers upset them, 113-111, in overtime.  Tonight, we'll back the Suns, as they're 52-19 ATS off an upset road loss.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  We played against Golden State on Friday, and took Denver as our NBA Game of the Month.  And the Nuggets pulled off the upset win.  But we'll switch gears and take Golden State tonight, as it's 35-12 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Golden State was off a straight-up loss.  Take the Warriors.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New York Jets.  Russell Wilson won't be on the field today vs. the Jets, as he's out with a hamstring injury.  QB Brett Rypien will instead be under center for the Broncos.  But Wilson was the 25th-ranked quarterback through the first six weeks, so his absence won't be devastating to the Broncos.  We'll take Denver, as it's a stellar 52-19-3 ATS at home, priced from +4.5 to -2 points, including 10-0 ATS if it was off a division loss in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Portland.  The Blazers have opened the season with back-to-back upset wins over the Kings and Suns, while the Lakers dropped their first two games to the Warriors and Clippers.  We'll take Los Angeles as teams off back to back SU/ATS losses have covered 63% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back upset wins to start the season.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over New York.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, but have been installed as a home favorite vs. New York.  The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, as they're 5-1 SU/ATS after their 2nd straight upset win -- a 24-20 victory over Baltimore.   But off those two upsets, we'll fade New York at Jacksonville on Sunday.  Indeed, winning teams off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 39.2% on the road vs. losing teams over the last 40+ years.  And the Giants are a poor 4-8 ATS off back to back upset wins vs. a foe off a SU loss.  Finally, over the last 40+ years, NFL teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 69.5% vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins if our play-on team (here, Jacksonville), was not getting more than 4 points.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas.  Dak Prescott will make his return this afternoon for the Cowboys, but we'll still go against them this afternoon.  Detroit had last week off following a shutout loss, 29-0, at the hands of New England.  The Lions are now 1-4, but rested underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a win percentage < .333, have covered 64.5% over the past 43 years.  And Detroit has gone 16-0-1 ATS after losing by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they were installed as an underdog of 6+ points in their current game.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens have not covered the spread in any of their three previous games, and are 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, dating back to last season.  This afternoon, they'll welcome division rival, Cleveland, to M&T Bank Stadium.  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as AFC North division teams have covered 64.8% if they were getting 6+ points against a division foe not off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, the road team has gone 27-18-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 5-0 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Washington.  The Bears come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Washington State and Colorado.  But both of those games were on the road (where Cal is 0-3 on the season).  At home, it's been a different story, as California is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS.  The Bears play this game with revenge from a 31-24 loss in Seattle last season.  And Washington is an awful 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 13-31-1 ATS its last 45) as road favorites vs. revenge-minded conference foes, if the Huskies were off a win, and owned a winning record.  Grab the points with California.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Chicago Bulls.  The Cavaliers have a big advantage tonight, in terms of rest.  Cleveland has had the last 2 days off, while Chicago had to play last night in Washington, against the Wizards.  Over the last 33 seasons, rested NBA teams have covered 70.2% in their 2nd game of the season, if their opponent was unrested, and our rested team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs upset San Jose State, 17-10, last week as a 7-point home dog, and they covered the spread for the first time all season, after an 0-5 ATS start to the season.  Now, Fresno has been installed as a big road favorite in Albuquerque.  But I look for a reversion to form for Fresno, as road favorites have covered just 33% over the last 42 years off an upset win, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak prior to that upset victory.  Additionally, the Lobos are 13-2 ATS against foes that won outright as a 7-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antone.  The Spurs pulled off an upset win last night against the Indiana Pacers, while Philly lost its home opener to Milwaukee in its previous game.  The Sixers will get a 2nd crack at the apple here, at home, on Saturday evening.  We'll lay the points with Philly, as double-digit home favorites have covered 75% since 1990 off a loss in their home opener when matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  Both of these teams are undefeated (3-0) in Pac-12 conference play, though UCLA owns the better overall record, at 6-0 (compared to Oregon's 5-1).  In the Bruins' last game, they upset Utah, 42-32, as a 3-point home underdog.  I played on UCLA in that game, but will go against Chip Kelly's men on this Saturday, as undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams are 14-27-1 ATS off an upset conference win.  Even worse for the Bruins:  they're 15-36-1 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit win.  And the Ducks are 26-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Ducks owned a worse season W/L record, and were not getting 4+ points.  Lay the points with Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Month is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Florida Atlantic (45-28) and Louisiana Tech (47-27).  They've now been installed as an underdog at UTSA, which doesn't bode well for the Mean Green.  Indeed, underdogs are a horrible 13-45 ATS after back to back games where they scored more than 40 points, including 0-10 ATS their last 10 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  With the Roadrunners seeking revenge from a 22-point loss in Denton last season, we'll lay the points with UTSA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes suffered their first loss of the season last week following a 5-0 SU/ATS start.  We'll go against James Madison on Saturday, as double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss have covered just 63 of 169 if that loss was their first of the season after a 5-0 (or better) start.  Take Marshall + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Iowa.  Our strongest football play so far this year was on the Ohio State Buckeyes, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo.  The Bucks were averaging just 33 ppg, and were 0-2 ATS on the season going into that contest.  But Ohio State erupted for 77 points, and that was a harbinger of things to come.  Since that game, Ohio State has scored 52, 49, and 49 points.  And they're 3-0-1 ATS their last four games.  I won't step in front of this freight train, as NCAA teams have covered 63.3% of their home games since 1980 vs. conference foes, if they scored 49+ points in each of their three previous games, and did not fail to cover the spread in any of those three games.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Phoenix.  The Trail Blazers are a solid 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in their home openers, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  Moreover, home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 67% in their home openers since 1990 if they were not unrested, and their opponent was off a home win.  Grab the points with the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors opened up the season with a blowout win over LeBron James' Lakers, 123-109. And they'll look to make it two-in-a-row tonight against a team many feel will win the title.  The Nuggets are healthy this year, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. back on the court.  Unfortunately, their presence didn't lead to a good result in Game 1, as Denver was shellacked by the Utah Jazz, 123-102.  But off that embarrassing loss, we'll take Denver to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, the Nuggets are 28-11 ATS in the regular season off a loss by 15+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 7+ points.  Even better:  defending NBA champs -- who generally receive their championship rings in the opening game -- often have letdowns in Game 2, and are a soft 2-11 ATS in their 2nd game of the season if they were playing an opponent not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Boston Celtics.  Miami was upset, 116-108, by the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.  We'll take the Heat to bounce back on Friday, as they're 44-13 ATS vs. conference rivals, if the Heat were off an upset loss, and their opponent was off a win.  Take Miami.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto.  The Nets lost their first home game of the season, 130-108, to the New Orleans Pelicans.  Brooklyn is back at home for Game 2, and NBA home teams that were upset in their home opener typically do much better in their 2nd home game of the season, including 64.2% since 1990 vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  With Toronto in off a 108-105 victory over Cleveland, as a 2-point home favorite, we'll fade Toronto tonight, and lay the points with Brooklyn.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over New Orleans.  The Saints are 2-4 SU/ATS this season, and have been outscored by 2.83 ppg, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.33 ppg.  This will be New Orleans' 3rd road game of the season, and it's 0-2 ATS in the first two, with ATS losses to the Falcons and Panthers.  The Cardinals are also 2-4 straight-up, after being upset last week by the Seattle Seahawks.  And that was Arizona's 2nd straight defeat, as it also fell to the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, two weeks ago.  But off those two losses, we'll step in and take Kliff Kingsbury's men on Thursday night.  For technical support, consider that the Cardinals are a sensational 36-13 ATS at home off back to back losses, if its opponent had a negative scoring margin.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Broncos are offensively-challenged.  They scored just nine points in last week's 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and are averaging just 15.0 ppg this season.  In contrast, the Chargers enter tonight's game with a 24.4 ppg offensive average, and have tallied 34 and 30 points the past two weeks.  This vast offensive difference (LA is 9.4 ppg better) will keep a lot of gamblers off Denver, but not me.  Indeed, at Game 6 forward, NFL road teams that average 15 (or less) points per game, and at least 9.4 ppg less than their opponent, have gone 119-78-5 ATS, including 65-35-4 ATS if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  And if it's a division game, then our 65-35-4 stat zooms to 28-9-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Denver in this game.  As does the fact that AFC West division teams with a losing record have gone 141-83 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, if our road team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, Denver is an awesome 11-0 ATS following games it failed to score 13+ points, if it was an underdog of 4+ points in the current game, and its opponent was off a win.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles had a winning record last season, yet lost both games to Dallas, 51-26 and 41-21.  But Philly now falls into several double-revenge systems of mine that have records of 53-28, 72-51 and 43-23 ATS.  Additionally, dating back to 1989, undefeated teams (like Philly) have cashed 63.7% at home off a point spread loss if they weren’t favored by 9+ points in their current game.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Buffalo.  The Bills blew out Pittsburgh last week, 38-3, to move to 4-1 this season.  KC is also 4-1 after outlasting the Raiders, 30-29.  The Chiefs are a super 23-9 their last 32 games, and are 10-1 SU their last 11 at home.  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.  We'll grab the points with the Chiefs, as NFL teams that have won at least 23 of their previous 32 games, have gone 20-8 ATS when not laying more than 1 point, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if their opponent was off a win by 17+ points.  Take KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks' defense is giving up 30.8 ppg, which is the 2nd-worst in the NFL.  They’ve been installed as a home dog this Sunday.  But NFL home underdogs of +2 (or more) points have covered just 40.3%, at Game 5 forward, if they were giving up more than 30 points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Flyboys pulled off their 2nd straight upset last week when they blew out division rival, Miami, 40-17.  And they went into Pittsburgh the previous week and upset the Steelers, 24-20.  Now, they'll try to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Unfortunately for New York, Green Bay's coming into this game off an upset loss to the New York Giants, 27-22, in London.  Green Bay's 24-11 ATS with Rodgers under center off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS vs. a foe off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Steelers were blown out by 35 points last week in Kenny Pickett's first start, which wasn't wholly unexpected.  But off that debacle, I'll grab the points with the Men of Steel, as NFL teams that scored less than 7 points, and lost by 35+ points have covered 63.9% since 1990.  Take Pittsburgh.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over New Orleans.  Cincinnati lost on the road last week to Baltimore, and it's back on the road this week.  It's been installed as a road favorite vs. the Saints, who won last week, 39-32, vs. Seattle.  The good news for Joe Burrow & Co. is that road favorites are 65.2% ATS off a road loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  Take Cincinnati.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over North Carolina.  The Blue Devils were upset in overtime, 23-20, by Georgia Tech last week to fall to 4-2 on the season.  They'll now welcome their rival, North Carolina, to Durham, and have been installed as a home underdog.  UNC is 5-1 this year following its upset win at Miami last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Carolina, favorites off an upset win have covered just 32% over the last 43 years when playing a .666 (or better) conference foe off an upset loss.  Take Duke + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Southern Cal.  The Utes were upset on the road last week by UCLA, 42-32.  And that was Utah's 2nd loss on the season.  But both losses were away from home; here, in Salt Lake City, Utah is 19-1 SU its last 20 vs. Division 1 FBS teams, and 14-6 ATS.  USC is now 6-0 after its blowout of Washington State.  But undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, are a soft 33% as underdogs of more than 3 points against foes off an upset loss.  Additionally, Utah is 12-4 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a foe off a double-digit win.  And USC is a poor 26-48-1 ATS on the road off a win.  Take the Utes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  The Seminoles lost by 10 points to Clemson last season, so they play with revenge on Saturday night vs. the undefeated Tigers.  FSU's been installed as a home underdog in this ACC contest.  And the Seminoles have covered 67% as revenge-minded home dogs since 1980 vs. conference rivals.  Even better:  Florida State lost on the road, 19-17, to NC State last week, which was its second straight loss.  But the Seminoles are 41-23-3 ATS off a SU road loss.  And single-digit ACC home dogs, off back to back losses, are a super 75% ATS vs. conference rivals off back to back wins.  Grab the points with Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  QB Will Levis was injured in Kentucky's 22-19 loss at Mississippi two weeks ago, and missed last week's home loss to South Carolina.  But Levis has been upgraded to 'probable' for this game.  The Wildcats have a solid defense, and are giving up just 16.3 ppg.  And that's key, as .666 (or better) home underdogs off back to back losses, that give up 20.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 64.7% since 1980.  Take Kentucky + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Texas State.  The Bobcats pulled off a major upset last week, as a 20-point home underdog against Appalachian State.  Texas State was outgained by 102 yards, yet stunned the Mountaineers, 36-24.  But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown at Troy on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, Sun Belt underdogs of more than 3 points have cashed just 12 of 49 games vs. conference foes off a straight-up win.  The Trojans come into this game on a 3-game win streak (and 4-game ATS win streak).  Unfortunately for the Bobcats, they're 9-18 ATS on the road vs. foes off a win, including 0-5 ATS their last five.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over NC State.  In a battle of top 20-ranked clubs, we'll lay the points with the undefeated home team.  Syracuse has stormed out to a 5-0 record.  And it's also 4-1 ATS.  On Saturday, it will welcome a Wolfpack squad which is 5-1 SU, but just 2-4 ATS after dropping its 3rd straight "in Vegas" last weekend.  This will be the Wolfpack's 3rd road game of the season.  It lost ATS its first two.  And it's a wallet-breaking 8-33-2 ATS on the road when unrested, and priced from +7.5 to -7.5 points.  Take the Orange.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State.  TCU comes into this game with an unblemished 5-0 record.  And it's also an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS.  That bodes well for it on Saturday, as over the last 42 years, at Game 6 forward, NCAA teams that were undefeated both SU and ATS have covered the spread 64% of the time, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and were playing at home, or on a neutral field.  Additionally, the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Last year, the Cowboys crushed the Frogs, 63-17.  But TCU is a solid 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was favored at home, and owned an .800 (or better) win percentage.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Navy.  The Mustangs lost at Central Florida, 41-19, last week.  And that was their third straight loss, and 4th straight ATS defeat.  Meanwhile, Navy pulled off a big upset win against Tulsa, 53-21, as a 4.5-point home dog.  We'll lay the points with SMU tonight, as conference favorites of -3 (or more) points, on a 4-game ATS losing streak, have covered 75.8% since 1980 vs. foes on a 3-game ATS win streak, if their foe was off a SU win the previous week.  Moreover, SMU is a solid 29-18 ATS in Conference games off back to back losses, if it was also on a 2-game ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana.  The Rajin' Cajuns come into tonight's game off 3 straight losses, but they covered the spread in their most recent game -- a 20-17 home loss to South Alabama.  Meanwhile, Marshall defeated Gardner Webb, 28-7, to start October, but failed to cover the 31.5-point spread.  And that was the Thundering Herd's third straight ATS defeat.  Marshall's been installed as a double-digit favorite tonight.  And NCAA home teams, priced from -7 to -25 points, have been solid (108-75-3 ATS) off three straight ATS losses when matched up against foes off a point spread win.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Dallas.  Last week, the Rams were throttled by the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, 24-9.  And that continued coach Sean McVay's point spread failures following back-to-back wins, as the Rams are now 11-28 ATS in that situation.  But the Rams excel following a straight-up loss, as they're 14-6 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in those games.  Even better:  defending Super Bowl champs have covered 72% following a road game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points.  And Dallas is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over San Francisco.  The Niners played an emotional game last week when they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, 24-9, in San Francisco.  Off that big divisional win, I expect a letdown in this non-division road game.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL road favorites have covered just 37% vs. non-division foes off a SU/ATS loss, if our road favorite was off a Monday Night divisional contest.  Take Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons come into this game with a 4-0 ATS record, and have won their last 2 straight up as underdogs vs. the Browns and Seahawks.  They're also covering the spread by an average of 5.12 ppg (Tampa's covering by just 1.37 ppg).  Unfortunately for the Falcons, Tom Brady's teams have gone 19-0 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they owned a worse point spread differential than their opponent, and their opponent was off back to back wins!  Take Tampa Bay minus the points.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks won a thriller in Detroit last week, 48-45, and are an underdog at New Orleans this Sunday.  We’ll lay the points, as favorites have covered 64.3% since 1980 if their opponent was off an upset win, and scored 48+ points the previous week.  Additionally, the Saints are 10-0 ATS when favored in non-division games, if they were off a loss, owned a losing record, and their opponent was off a win.  Lay the points with the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans upset the Indianapolis Colts, 24-17, as a 4-point road underdog, to move their record to 2-2 SU/ATS this season.  Washington is 1-3 SU/ATS after dropping a 25-10 decision to rival Dallas on the road.  We'll fade the Titans, as they're 0-9-1 ATS in non-division games following an upset win, if matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  And Washington is a solid 37-21 ATS as an underdog of +10 (or less) points when playing a non-division foe off back to back wins.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles stunned Louisville last week, 34-33, as a 13.5-point home underdog.  And that was the first time all season that Boston College covered the point spread (BC is 2-3 SU, and 1-4 ATS, and has failed to cover by an average of 5.25 ppg this season).  The Eagles will remain in Chestnut Hill on Saturday night to take on the highly-ranked Tigers.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, they're a terrible 10-17-1 ATS at home off an upset win, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  And with Clemson in off a 30-20 win over then-No. 10 ranked-NC State, our 0-6 angle is satisfied.  Even worse for the Eagles:  Clemson is a dominant 23-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 16-0 ATS vs. < .750 foes that have an average point spread differential less than 3 ppg.  Lay the points with Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Texas-San Antonio.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 SU/ATS records.  The Hilltoppers lost at home, 34-27, as a 5-point home favorite to Troy last Saturday, while UTSA defeated Middle Tennessee, 45-30.  This game is a rematch of last season's Conference USA championship game, which was won by the Roadrunners, 49-41.  We'll take Western Kentucky to avenge that defeat, as it is 16-0 ATS on the road when priced from -3 to +12 points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets fired coach Geoff Collins and athletic director Todd Stansbury last month on the heels of a 27-10 loss to UCF (which was Georgia Tech's 9th straight loss to a Division 1 FBS opponent).  Brent Key was named interim head football coach, and his team rewarded him with a 26-21 upset win at Pittsburgh last Saturday.  The Jackets were massive 21.5-point underdogs in that game, and were outgained on the day by the Panthers.  But Georgia Tech took advantage of 3 Pittsburgh turnovers to get the outright win.  But off that upset, I expect a letdown vs. Duke, as losing teams have covered just 33% as home dogs since 1983 off upset wins as a dog of more than 21 points.  Take Duke to rout the Yellow Jackets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Utah.  This is a great Pac-12 battle at the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon.  Utah opened its season with an upset loss at the hands of the Florida Gators, 29-26.  But the Utes have rebounded to win and cover each of their next four games, and have been installed as a road favorite here, in Pasadena.  UCLA, for its part, survived a scare by South Alabama in Week 3, and is now 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS.  And both teams are undefeated in Pac-12 play, with 2-0 records (USC and Oregon are also undefeated).  The Bruins have historically been strong as a home underdog, including an awesome 31-12-2 ATS against foes not off a point spread loss.  Meanwhile, Utah is an underwhelming 9-19 ATS as a single-digit road favorite vs. an opponent off a SU win.  And Pac-12 road teams, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 30 of 78 games vs. foes with a winning Pac-12 record.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Missouri.  The Tigers almost pulled off the season's biggest upset last week when they took #1 Georgia down to the wire before falling, 26-22, as a 31-point home dog.  That will be a tough game to bounce back from, as NCAA teams have covered just 31.8% after losing to the defending National Champs by a touchdown or less.  And the SEC road has not been kind to Missouri, as the Tigers are a dismal 7-20 SU and 8-19 ATS at SEC rivals, including 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points.  Florida is a powerful 71% since 1980 as a double-digit home favorite vs. losing teams off an ATS win.  Lay the points with the Gators.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs and Jayhawks are both undefeated SU and ATS this season.  TCU is 4-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, 55-24, while Kansas is 5-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over Iowa State, 14-11.  We'll fade TCU as road favorites off an upset win in which they scored 50+ points are an abysmal 1-12 ATS their last 13.  Take Kansas + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Memphis.  The Coogs have largely stumbled this season, as they're 1-4 ATS, and have lost two games outright as 8.5 and 4.5-point favorites.  Their lone point spread win this season was when they were installed as a 4-point underdog at Texas Tech.  And they covered the spread in that game -- a 33-30 loss.  Houston is 22-11-1 ATS its last 34 as an underdog, including 14-4-1 ATS on the road.  That bodes well for Houston here.  As does the fact that the Cougars are 10-2 ATS off an upset loss at home to a conference rival.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are a wallet-breaking 10-35-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite!  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado.  The Rockies won last night, 2-1, which was L.A.'s second straight loss.  But Los Angeles generally bounces back off low-scoring games, as it's 33-5 at home after scoring less than 3 runs.  Even better:  it's 48-16 behind its southpaw, Julio Urias, who has gone 10-1 with a 1.12 ERA over his last 13 outings.   Urias will be opposed by Colorado's Ryan Feltner, who will be making his 21st career start.  The Rockies have gone 6-14 in his other starts, including 2-9 on the road, and 0-8 in games where the Over/Under was less than 9 runs.  Feltner's ERA since August has been 6.29, and he's made just one quality start over his last 13.  Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the New York Mets minus 1.5 runs over the Washington Nationals.  The only pennant race left in the Majors could come down to the final day.  The Mets surely can't be happy with their getting swept over the weekend by the Braves.  Those three losses (combined with Atlanta's loss yesterday) puts Atlanta up by 1.5 games with an elimination number of just one.  But the good news is that the Braves have to play a pesky Marlins club while the Mets are at home facing the team with the worst record in baseball -- Washington.  So there's certainly reason for optimism in Queens.  Veteran RH Carlos Carrasco will start things off for the home team this afternoon.  After a very good month of July, the 35-year-old has been very inconsistent in August and September.  Carrasco can certainly put the poor starts he's had recently out of everyone's mind with a quality outing tonight.  He's done by far his best work this season at Citi Field.  In 16 starts here covering 87 innings, Carrasco is 9-3 with a 3.52 ERA vs. 6-4 and 4.57 in 12 starts on the road.  Take the Mets minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado.  Tony Gonsolin will make his return from the Injured List tonight.  And all Gonsolin has done this year is go 16-1, with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.  And the Dodgers are 22-4 his last 26 starts (dating back to last season).  Jose Urena will get the ball for Colorado tonight.  For the season, in 16 starts, Urena has a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.  And, dating back to last year, Urena's teams (Brewers, Rockies) have lost 16 of his last 23 starts, including a 13-0 loss to the Dodgers the last time Urena faced them on July 28.  Take Los Angeles minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers.  The Cardinals made the playoffs last season, but one of their not-so-good games came at the hands of the Panthers, who blew them out, 34-10, as a 7-point road underdog.  And, improbably, that was the sixth straight double-digit win (including 3 straight upsets) by Carolina over Arizona in this series.  The Cardinals have surely gotten off to a worrisome 1-2 start this year.  They know they can’t fall to 1-3 as that might be too deep of a hole from which to dig out.  Part of the reason Arizona is 1-2 is that it was saddled with a difficult opening schedule.  Indeed, its first 3 opponents (Chiefs, Raiders, Rams) also made the Playoffs last season.  But this week's opponent -- Carolina -- was just 5-12 last season, so it's a step-down in class for Arizona.  For technical support, consider that NFL underdogs with a losing record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 19-2 ATS in Week 4, if they were playing another losing team.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Houston.  The Chargers were upset at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, 38-10.  But off that upset loss, I’ll look for Los Angeles to rebound here, as road favorites off 17-point (or worse) upset losses have covered 72% since 1998.  Even better:  the Chargers are 49-29-6 ATS off an upset loss.  And they're also 27-6-2 ATS on the road following a game where they scored less than 14 points, provided they weren't getting more than 10 in the current game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  Washington opened its season with a nice win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but lost to Detroit and Philly in Weeks 2 + 3.  In contrast, the Cowboys opened their season with a loss to Tampa, but rebounded in Weeks 2 + 3 with back to back upset wins, including a 23-16 victory at the New York Giants this past Monday.  Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams off a division upset win (and back to back upset wins, overall) have covered just 22% the past 43 seasons vs. division foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that this has been an underdog-oriented rivalry, with the dog going 50-26-1 ATS in the last 77 meetings.  Grab the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30pm, our selection is on the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers minus the points over Rice. This is a huge revenge game for the Blazers, as they were favored by 23.5 points last year at home vs. Rice, but lost, 30-24.  The Owls hung tough at Houston last Saturday, but ultimately succumbed to the Cougars, 34-27, as a 17.5-point road underdog.  UAB had last week off after defeating Georgia Southern two weeks ago, 35-21, as an 11.5-point home favorite.  We played on UAB in that victory, and will come back with them here, on the road, at Rice.  UAB is a solid 14-7-2 ATS when playing with rest vs. a conference foe.  And Rice is a horrid 1-10 ATS when getting 2+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Alabama-Birmingham.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Baylor.  This game has been circled for months on the Cowboys' calendar, as Baylor knocked it off in the Big 12 Title game last December.  The Bears were a touchdown underdog in that game, but won a thriller, 21-16, when the Cowboys' Dezmon Jackson came up inches short of a game-winning TD when he dove for the pylon on a 4th-and-goal play with less than 30 seconds left in the game.  Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State blew out Pine Bluff, 63-7.  And Okie State is 41-12 ATS off a win in which it scored 50+ points.  Additionally, early in the season, rested, revenging road teams have cashed 65.9% when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if not favored by 7+ points in the current game.  Take the Cowboys + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over James Madison.  This is JMU's first season at the Division 1 (FBS) level, and it's off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start, with three impressive victories over Middle Tenn (44-7), Norfolk (63-7) and Appalachian St (32-28).  We played on the Dukes last week, as a touchdown underdog, and it stormed back from an early 28-3 deficit to upend Appalachian St in Boone.  The Dukes return home to Harrisonburg for this game, and have been installed as a greater-than-three-touchdown favorite against the Bobcats.  Off that big emotional win (its first conference game at this level), I'll look for a letdown on Saturday.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  The Hawkeyes come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, as they held their last two opponents (Rutgers, Nevada) to 10 and 0 points, respectively.  For the season, Iowa's given up just 5.7 ppg.  And they're holding their opponents to a mere 2.2 yards per rush.  I like playing on certain defensive-minded underdogs with strong rush defenses.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 5 forward, NCAA underdogs that give up less than 14 points per game, and less than 2.75 ypr, are 122-68 ATS if they come into the game off a momentum-building win.  Even better:  if our puppy is playing at home vs. a conference foe, then our 122-68 ATS angle zooms to 21-5 ATS.  Take Iowa + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Temple.  This is a big revenge game for Memphis which was upset by Temple last season, 34-31, as an 11-point road favorite.  The Owls do come into this game off three straight ATS wins.  But all three of those games were at home.  In Temple's lone road game this season, it was blown out, 30-0, by Duke.  And that continued the Owls' road woes, as they're 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS away from home, including 0-5 SU/ATS since Oct 8, 2021.  Even worse:  Temple's 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven conference games, while Memphis is a solid 11-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Navy.  The Midshipmen upset East Carolina last Saturday, 23-20, while Air Force ran over Nevada, 48-20.  We'll fade Navy, as it's 5-20 ATS in non-conference games off an upset win, if its opponent was also off a SU win.  Take Air Force.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Kansas State.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets last Saturday.  Texas Tech got the better of Texas, in Lubbock, 37-34, as a 7-point dog.  And, not to be outdone, the Wildcats went into Norman, and stunned the highly-ranked Sooners, 41-34, as a 13.5-point underdog.  K-State will try to make it two-conference-wins-in-a-row on Saturday when the Red Raiders pay a visit to Manhattan.  But Big 12 (or Big 8) Conference home favorites have only covered 32.1% since 1980 off a conference upset road win, if they were matched up against a conference foe which also won its previous game.  Grab the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington.  Both of these Pac-12 teams sport 4-0 records in the early going.  Last Saturday, Washington blew out Stanford in Seattle to move to 4-0 SU/ATS, while UCLA went into Boulder and crushed Colorado, 45-17.  We'll grab the points with Chip Kelly's men on Friday, and go against Washington, as Pac-12 road favorites of 8 or less points have covered just 27.7% against foes that don't have a worse record, if our road team was off a win + cover as a home favorite.  Even better:  the Bruins are 23-9-2 ATS as a home dog vs. foes off a point spread win.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Miami.  Last week, in a battle of undefeated, 2-0 teams, Miami bested Buffalo, 21-19, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  But after toppling the Bills from the ranks of the unbeatens, we'll fade Miami on the road tonight.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) NFL road dogs have cashed just 32.6% after knocking off an undefeated team, provided they weren't favored by 3+ points in that previous game.  And Miami is a miserable 11-31 ATS off an upset win over a division rival.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last year, the Bengals reached the Super Bowl.  This season, they've not yet found similar success.  Indeed, Cincy is 0-2 SU/ATS after its first two games.  But I love the Bengals to bounce back on Sunday.  Since 1980, NFL teams that made the playoffs the previous season have cashed 60% in Game 3 after starting the season winless SU/ATS.  That bodes well for the Bengals here.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 66-116-6 ATS at home vs. foes that don’t have a winning record, including 13-32 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Kansas City.  The Colts were shut out, 24-0, by the Jaguars last Sunday.  However, off that embarrassing defeat, we'll take Indy as a big home underdog against the Chiefs.  The Colts are a solid 48-23 ATS off a straight-up loss, while KC has covered just 38 of 93 games as a favorite vs. foes off back to back losses.  And since 1980, NFL teams, like Indianapolis, that scored less than 6 points in an upset loss have gone 104-74-4 ATS in their subsequent game.  Take the home underdog Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Wyoming.  The Cougars were blown out last week, 41-20, at Oregon, while Wyoming upset Air Force, 17-14.  We'll look for BYU to crush the Cowboys, as BYU has covered 70.5% over the last 42 years off a loss, when installed as a home favorite against non-conference foes, including 6-0-1 ATS their last seven when also off a double-digit loss!  Lay the points with Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over USC.  The Beavers enter with a 3-0 SU/ATS record after blowing out Montana State last Saturday, 68-28.  They're a home dog here, so we'll grab the points knowing that conference underdogs of more than 4 points have covered 57% over the last 42 years, if they scored 68+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, USC is an ugly 14-28 ATS away from home off a point spread win.  Take Oregon State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Gamecocks were blown out here, at home in Columbia, last Saturday.  The #1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs rolled into town, and roasted the Gamecocks, 48-7.  But off that debacle, I love Shane Beamer's men to rebound on Saturday night.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NCAA home favorites of -16 (or more) points, off a home loss by 16+ points, have covered 82.3% vs. non-conference foes off a win.  With Charlotte off a 42-41 win at Georgia State, we'll fade the 49ers in this game.  Lay the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Wisconsin.  We played on the Buckeyes last week as our NCAA Favorite of the Month, and were rewarded with a 77-21 blowout over Toledo, as a 31-point favorite.  This Saturday, the Buckeyes are hosting Wisconsin in their Big 10 Conference opener.  Ohio State has won 10 straight conference openers, and is 5-0-1 ATS their last six (and 26-3 SU, 18-7-4 ATS their last 29).  Even better:  the Buckeyes have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, and are 8-3-1 ATS in those games (and 4-0-1 ATS here in Columbus).  We'll lay the points on Saturday night, as undefeated teams have covered 65.1% of conference home games since 1980 off a home game where they covered the spread by 25+ points.  Take the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over LSU.  The Tigers pulled off a big upset win last week vs. SEC rival, Mississippi State.  But off that emotional win, we'll fade the Tigers in this non-conference game.  Since 1980, LSU has covered just 30% of non-conference games off upset wins, while the Lobos are 18-8 ATS vs. foes off an upset win (including 5-0 vs. non-conference foes).  Take New Mexico + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi + the points over Tulane.  The Green Wave pulled off a big upset last week when it went into Manhattan, KS, and upset the Wildcats, 17-10, as a 13-point road dog.  We'll fade Tulane on Saturday evening, as it's 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS off an upset road win, including 0-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Southern Mississippi.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Rice.  The Cougars have dominated this cross-town rivalry since 2011, with 6 straight wins (5-1 ATS).  Houston does come into this game off back to back losses, but it's 9-2 ATS off back to back losses, and 19-8 ATS when it owned a losing point spread record.  Look for Houston to rebound off its losses, and blow out Rice.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Florida.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 3-0 record, and also play with revenge from a 24-point blowout loss at Florida last season.  It's true that Florida has won the last five meetings.  But revenge-minded favorites, with an .875 (or better) win percentage, have covered 63.8% vs. conference rivals over the last 20 seasons, if they also lost to their opponent two meetings back.  That bodes well for the Volunteers on Saturday.  As does the fact that Florida is a dreadful 0-8 ATS its last eight road games.  Lay the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Appalachian State.  James Madison has been impressive in its first two games as a Division 1 FBS team.  It opened with a 44-7 blowout of Middle Tennessee, as a 5-point home favorite.  And then it walloped Norfolk State, 63-7.  It's been installed as a touchdown underdog at 2-1 Appalachian State, which checks in off back to back wins over Texas A&M and Troy State.  We'll grab the points, as .500 (or better) underdogs of +7 (or more) points have covered 60.9% since 1980 after back to back games where they gave up 7 or less points.  Take James Madison.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The Wolves have picked up where they left off last season, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.  Over the last two seasons, Jim Harbaugh's troops are 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -5 to -50 points.  One of those wins last season was against this Maryland team.  Michigan was favored by 16, and won 59-18.  This season, the point spread is similar to last year.  And I expect a similar result.  Maryland is a horrid 4-29 SU and 7-26 ATS vs. winning teams.  And it's 0-13 ATS when playing a .600 (or better) foe, and getting 14+ points.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners minus 1.5 runs over the Oakland Athletics.  If there's a better rookie starter in the American League than the Mariners' George Kirby, you'd be hard pressed to find him.  The 24-year-old RHP is 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 123 strikeouts and just 15 walks in just under 118 innings.  With the seasons that Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman are having, there is no chance Kirby will win the AL Rookie of the Year, but if there was an award for best first-year starter, then Kirby would be a shoe-in (the Twins' Joe Ryan and Braves' Spencer Strider are second-year rookies).  Kirby will try for his eighth win this afternoon and he certainly doesn't need any more incentive than being part of a team which is in the heat of a post-season race.  The M's are currently in a battle with the Jays and Rays for the top Wild Card spot, with less than three games separating them.  Kirby may be a first-year rookie, but he's already had three solid starts against the A's, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings vs. Oakland.  Take the Mariners minus 1.5 runs.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, we played on the Minnesota Vikings against Green Bay, and were rewarded with a 23-7 blowout win.  But off that loss, we'll take Aaron Rodgers & Co. to bounce back on Sunday.  And when they're playing the Bears, they generally do bounce back off losses.  Indeed, Green Bay is 19-1-1 ATS its last 21 (including 13-0 ATS its last 13) vs. Chicago if Green Bay failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  And with Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers are a solid 63-37-3 ATS when not favored by 13 points against an opponent NOT off an ATS loss.  Take Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Las Vegas.  The Cardinals were blown out by Kansas City, 44-21, in Week 1, while Las Vegas lost to the Chargers.  We'll look for Arizona to rebound on Sunday, as underdogs off a double-digit loss in Week 1 have covered 69.4% since 1991 if they owned a winning record the previous season.  Moreover, the Raiders are an atrocious 25-52-1 ATS as a favorite, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Grab the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our NFC West Division Game of the Year is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Seattle.  The Niners were surprised by the Chicago Bears in Week 1, as they lost, 19-10, as a 7-point road favorite.  Meanwhile, Seattle upset Denver, 17-16, on Monday night.  We'll take the 49ers to bounce back strong on Sunday afternoon, as they're a spectacular 67-28 ATS off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Moreover, in week 2, NFL teams off a road loss in Week 1, that made the playoffs the previous year, have covered 68% since 1980 against foes off an upset win to start the season.  Finally, the Seahawks are a poor 6-16-1 ATS in their road openers.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  Last week, the Buccaneers played the Cowboys in a match-up of two Playoff teams from the previous season.  Tampa emerged victorious, 19-3, and now travels to play the Saints, who also won its season opener.  We'll fade Tampa Bay, as road favorites have only covered 33% since 1980 in Week 2, if they won SU/ATS in Week 1 against a team that made the playoffs the previous season.  New Orleans is 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS its last 22 games vs. Tampa Bay, including 2-0 last year, and 7-1 SU/ATS since Dec. 2018.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Bill Belichick's men were blown out, 20-7, by Miami in Week 1, while Pittsburgh upended Cincy, 23-20, in overtime.  But with New England off that loss, we'll lay the short number vs. the Steelers.  For technical support, consider that New England is 23-8 ATS its last 31 (and 10-0 SU/ATS its last 10) non-division games when not favored by 3+ points, if it was off a SU loss, and its foe was off a SU win.  Take the Patriots.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New York Giants.  New York won a thriller last week when it scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to stun the Titans (who owned the AFC's #1 record last season), 21-20.  Unfortunately, Game 2 favorites, that defeated a Playoff team from the previous season in its opener, have covered just 42% against foes off a SU loss.  I look for New York to suffer a letdown on this Sunday.  Take Carolina + the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over San Diego State.  Last season, the Aztecs upset the Utes, 33-31, as an 8-point home underdog.  We'll take Utah in this revenge match, as the Utes have cashed 70% at home over the past 42 years when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  And they've cashed 80% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a non-conference foe.  San Diego State, meanwhile, is a soft 37% ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded, non-conference foes.  And Utah also falls into a 75-46 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams in non-conference games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs and Terrapins are both 2-0 on the season.  SMU dispatched North Texas (48-10) in Week 1, and Lamar (45-16) last Saturday, while Maryland blew out Buffalo and Charlotte in its games.  The Terps have been installed as a small favorite here, and that's not good news for SMU.  Indeed, the Mustangs are a wallet-breaking 13-39 ATS as a road underdog of +10 (or less) points.  Even worse, NCAAF underdogs are 0-13 ATS their last 13 (and 8-42 ATS their last 50) off back to back games in which they scored more than 40 points.  Take Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Toledo.  The Rockets come into this game with a 2-0 record, after winning home games vs. Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10.  But this is a monstrous step-up in class for Toledo, which will travel 140 miles south to play the Buckeyes in Columbus.  Toledo's generally been horrible out-of-conference when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points.  And especially when playing a .500 (or better) opponent, as it's gone 4-25 SU and 7-22 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for the Rockets on Saturday night.  Ohio State wasn't at its best last week, as it won by only 33 (as a 44.5-point favorite) vs. Arkansas State.  But the Buckeyes were without WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming, both of whom will play on Saturday night.  The return of All-American Smith-Njigba should be especially impactful, as he led OSU with 1606 receiving yards last season.  After Ohio State failed to cover the spread last week, several of my best NCAAF systems -- with records of 65-22, 277-189 and 30-4 ATS -- have been triggered on the Buckeyes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Liberty.  Wake Forest was impressive last week in its blowout win at Vanderbilt.  The Deacs were favored by 13, and covered the spread in a 45-25 triumph.  They'll look to move their record to 3-0 SU/ATS, as 2-0 Liberty will pay a visit.  Wake is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS at home after scoring more than 30 points in back-to-back games.  And it's 6-0-1 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -28 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.