Sports Picks & Predictions

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Indiana.  The main storyline tonight is that G Kyrie Irving will play for the first time this season, due to his refusal to get vaccinated.  He can't play home games, or games in various other cities, because of those cities' regulations.  However, Indianapolis doesn't have such restrictions in place, and the Nets' management has reversed course on its earlier decision to ban Irving across the board.  Certainly, Brooklyn needs his production.  The Nets have been floundering (given their talent) against the league's elite units, and only have a 23-12 record because they've beat up on the NBA's lesser teams.  Indiana certainly doesn't qualify as "elite," as it has lost twice as many games as has Brooklyn.  And the Pacers currently have several key players sidelined due to COVID-19 protocols, including their leading scorer, Malcolm Brogdon.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS on the road off a point spread loss, including 7-0 ATS if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Lay the points with Brooklyn.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the St. John's Red Storm minus the points over DePaul.  The Blue Demons have been poor in Big East Conference play, and especially when they've not gotten more than 6 points.  In that situation, they've covered just five of 26.  DePaul will visit a St. John's team which was upset by Pitt, 59-57, as an 11-point favorite in its last game.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points today, as St. John's is 26-12 ATS at home off a loss.  Take St. John's.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Clemson.  Tony Bennett has transformed Virginia into a national power since being hired away from Washington State more than 10 years ago.  And though the Cavaliers are certainly strong in many situations, one of their best situations under coach Bennett is when they play with revenge.  And Virginia is currently riding an 11-1 SU/ATS run when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season (and 32-12 ATS if one would include revenge from a prior season).  The Tigers upset Virginia in Charlottesville last month, 67-50.  Take Virginia + the points in the rematch.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Lipscomb Bisons minus the points over North Alabama.  The Lions come into this game off a point spread win against Gonzaga, which was the Lions' 4th straight cover.  And tonight, they're in Nashville to play the Bisons, who are headed in the opposite direction -- with respect to the point spread -- as they've failed to cover their last four games.  But we'll take the Bisons on this Tuesday, as they fall into 139-91 and 196-127 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off ATS losses.  Additionally, Lipscomb plays this game with revenge from an upset loss to North Alabama last season.  But revenge-minded NCAA teams off 4+ ATS losses have covered 60.2% since 1990 when favored against an opponent off 4 ATS wins.  Lay the points with Lipscomb.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Toronto.  Gregg Popovich's crew has lost three straight games.  But two of them were to Utah and Memphis, who will both be in the Playoffs at season's end.  The Raptors, on the other hand, will likely not be in the post-season, as they have a losing record, even though they've played 19 of their 33 games at home thus far.  Tonight, Toronto will once again be at home.  But the Spurs have cashed 64% on the road in the regular season off 3+ losses, if the Spurs were playing with rest.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers over Kentucky.  The Tigers are 12-1 SU, and 10-3 ATS on the season, with each point spread defeat coming away from Baton Rouge.  The good news for LSU tonight, then, is that this game is at home, where it has covered all eight games this season (and 11 in a row, dating back to last year).  More good news:  Kentucky is a wallet-breaking 2-11 ATS on the road off back to back double-digit home wins.  Take LSU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama A&M Bulldogs minus the points over Arkansas Pine Bluff.  The Bulldogs are 1-9, and will look to snap a 9-game losing streak tonight when they visit the Lions, are are 0-11 this season vs. division 1 programs. Pine Bluff is 45-58 ATS as an underdog, and also 1-9 ATS its last 10 when priced from +1.5 to +9 points.   Meanwhile, Alabama A&M falls into a 105-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road favorites with losing records.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over New Orleans.  The Jazz lost to Golden State, 123-116, in their last game.  But Utah's a solid 72-40 ATS as a rested favorite of 13 (or less) points off an upset loss as a 5-point (or greater) favorite, including 14-2 ATS on the road vs. opponents with a win percentage between .200 and .400.  Take the Jazz to bounce back on Monday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Memphis.  The Nets are finally healthy, but pulled a clunker in their last game -- a four-point loss to the Clippers, as a 14-point favorite.  So, Brooklyn failed to cover the spread by 18 points.  And that was Brooklyn's 2nd straight defeat, as it was upset, 110-102, by the 76ers before that.  The Nets typically bounce back from such poor performances, and are 4-0 ATS this season after not covering by 17+ points.  And they're also 67% ATS over the last 10 years after not covering by 10+ points in back to back games.  Take the Nets to rebound strong with a win over the Grizzlies.  Lay the points.  Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Minnesota.  The T-Wolves won the season's first two meetings, as they crushed the Lakers in L.A., 107-83, and then upset them in Minneapolis, 110-92, on Dec. 17.  But the T-Wolves are a poor 0-7 ATS their last seven as road underdogs of +7 or more points, when their foe was playing with double-revenge.  And rested, double-revenging favorites, who were upset in the most recent meeting, have been a profitable 101-67 ATS.  Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns was the leading scorer in each of the first two games (for either team) with 29, and 28 points, respectively.  But Towns won't play tonight due to the COVID-19 quarantine.  Take Los Angeles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Vikings in the first meeting, and got the $$$ when Minny upended Green Bay, 34-31, in a wild affair.  But this game should have not near that level of drama, as Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has been sidelined.  Sean Mannion will replace Cousins, so that's a big reason for us to be pulling the trigger on Green Bay.  With Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Packers are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  And Green Bay is a virtually perfect 9-1 ATS when priced from -11.5 to -13 points with Rodgers, so that also bodes well for Matt LaFleur's men.  As does the fact that Green Bay is 38-13 ATS at home in the final four regular season games, if the Packers owned a win percentage greater than .625.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have scored a grand total of 12 points in their last two games combined.  Yet they're favored by more than 6 points this afternoon against a division rival which held them to 7 points in the first meeting.  Admittedly, Carolina is not a very good team right now, as it's lost five straight games (both SU and ATS).  But I still will happily take the points in this matchup.  Indeed, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS losses have gone 103-68-3 ATS.  Moreover, New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 16-44-1 ATS at home vs. division foe off a loss.  And Carolina is 44-21 ATS as a road underdog vs. opponents that don't have a winning record.  Grab the points with the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Houston.  The Texans pulled off a massive upset last week, when they took down the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-29, as a 13-point underdog.  And that was Houston's 2nd straight upset victory, as it went into Jacksonville two weeks ago and surprised the Jaguars with a 30-16 triumph.  Generally, NFL teams are poor after winning a game as a 13-point (or greater) underdog, as they've gone 12-26 ATS their last 38.  And road teams off back to back upset wins are a soft 49-77-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take San Francisco minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset Denver at home last week.  Unfortunately, they're a poor 6-26 ATS off a home upset win, so that doesn't bode well for the Silver and Black today.  Also, this season, Indianapolis has been the best point spread team.  It ranks #1 (tied with New England) in average point spread differential (+6.40), but the Colts edge the Patriots' in ATS win percentage, as Indy is 10-5 ATS while New England is 9-6 ATS.  The Colts ATS percentage is tied (with Detroit) for 3rd, and only bettered by Green Bay (11-4 ATS) and Dallas (12-3 ATS).  I look for Indianapolis' success to continue this afternoon, especially since it received welcome news when QB Carson Wentz was upgraded to 'probable.'  Take the Colts.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Dixie State Trailblazers + the points over Abilene Christian.  The Wildcats are 10-2 SU, and 7-1 ATS, with seven straight ATS wins coming into tonight.  Here, Abilene Christian has been installed as a big favorite on the road vs. Dixie State.  But Western Athletic Conference teams off 3+ point spread wins, that are favored by 8 (or more) points, have cashed just 30.7 percent vs. conference foes off back to back ATS losses, including 0-14 ATS if our favored team owned a win percentage greater than .750 and less than .850.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Utah.  The Buckeyes were upset, 42-27, as a 6.5-point road favorite by a Michigan team on a mission to end its long, 8-game losing streak to its rival.  But off that upset loss, we'll step in and take Ohio State in this Rose Bowl matchup vs. Utah.  Ohio State is a solid 12-4 ATS away from home off an upset loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if it failed to cover the spread by 18+ points in its previous game.  And it's 42-19-1 ATS away from home when not laying more than 10 points, including 11-1 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .600 and less than .800.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Central Connecticut State.  Rutgers had 17 days off between games due COVID-19, but returned to the court on December 30 vs. Maine.  The Scarlet Knights shook off the rust to get by the Black Bears, 80-64, as a 24.5-point home favorite.  This will be the final non-conference game in its regular season schedule, as the Knights will resume Big 10 Conference play on Tuesday.  We'll lay the points with Rutgers, as it will be hosting a Blue Devils squad which comes in off a 12-point upset win over St Francis.  Since 1990, Big 10 Conference teams have cashed 67.2% as favorites of more than 15 points vs. non-conference foes off upset wins.  Additionally, the Scarlet Knights are 12-3-1 ATS at home vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win, while the Blue Devils are a poor 4-12 ATS as an underdog of 14+ points.  And Rutgers also falls into 19-0, 74-29 and 306-213 ATS systems of mine that play against certain foes off upset wins.  Take the Scarlet Knights to blow out the Blue Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State.  The Wolfpack enter this ACC Conference game off four straight losses, while Florida State is in off a win against Lipscomb.  We played on the Seminoles in that game, and were rewarded with a 97-60 blowout win over the Bisons.  We'll switch gears on this New Year's Day, and fade Florida State in Raleigh.  Since 1990, NC State has covered 62.2 percent as an underdog off back to back losses, if its opponent was off a point spread win.  Grab the points with the homestanding Wolfpack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons + the points over Providence.  DePaul looks to bounce back this afternoon after falling by four points at Butler, on Wednedsay, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Meanwhile, Providence comes into this game off a big win over nationally ranked Seton Hall earlier this week.  And that was the Friars' 7th straight win.  But Providence has covered just four of 20 games after winning their previous six games.  And it's also a dreadful 1-14 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. an opponent off a straight-up loss.  Take DePaul + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Toledo.  The Golden Flashes come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, while the Rockets are in off back to back victories over Marshall and Western Michigan.  The Golden Flashes are a fantastic 30-8-2 ATS at home when favored by 10 or less points (or PK), if they were off a point spread loss, and matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Lay the points with Kent State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have reeled off seven straight wins to end their season, but I'm not impressed, given the slate of teams they defeated.  Of the seven teams, only Virginia Tech and North Carolina made a bowl game.  And both were slaughtered this past week, as North Carolina lost by 17 as a 12-point favorite vs. South Carolina (failing to cover by 29), while Virginia Tech was shredded by Maryland, 54-10 (and failed to cover by 39.5 points).  Those were two of the three worst Bowl performances relative to the spread this season (Mississippi State was the 2nd worst, at -36.5 points).  In contrast, Oklahoma State came within inches of finishing the season with its own 6-game win streak.  But Baylor's defense stopped Oklahoma State just short of the goal line in the Big 12 Championship game to preserve the win for the Bears.  But if you look at Oklahoma State's opponents down the stretch, you'll see teams like Baylor, Okahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  The Bears have yet to play their Bowl game, but Oklahoma and Texas Tech were both dominant, as they covered the spread by 8 and 36.5 points, respectively.  By my numbers Oklahoma State rates as the better team, yet it's been installed as a small underdog.  For technical support, consider that Oklahoma State is a perfect 12-0 ATS its last 12 off an upset loss, if playing an opponent off a win, if Oklahoma State wasn't favored by 4+ points in the current game.  And the Cowboys also fall into several of my favorite NCAA Bowl systems, with records of 136-69, 39-10, 16-4, and 59-22 ATS since 1980.  Grab the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs will once again be without their floor leader, Dejounte Murray, who didn't make the trip to Memphis.  And Lonnie Walker IV is also questionable to play tonight.  The Grizzlies have most of their key personnel available, and we'll lay the points with the home team, as Memphis is 31-13 ATS off a win when not favored by more than 8 points, if it was playing a foe off a point spread win.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Michigan.  Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have had a tremendous turnaround season, but this will be a most difficult opponent for them to defeat.  Going into the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs were 12-0, and had given up just 6.9 ppg on defense.  Yes, Alabama scored 41 in an upset win, but it was an unusual game for Georgia since it knew it would be in these playoffs, even if it loss (while Alabama knew it had to win to advance).  This evening, Georgia will be fully motivated, and I expect it to shut down Michigan, just as it shut down all of its opponents in the regular season.  Georgia is a spectacular 39-15 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Michigan is 5-35 straight-up, and 14-26 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points.  And the SEC Conference has gone 25-8 SU and 23-10 ATS in the Bowls vs. the Big 10 Conference when the SEC team owned the better defense, and was not the underdog.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over Cleveland.  This is a revenge match for Atlanta, which was upset by Cleveland, 101-95, in the season's first meeting.  The Hawks are 7-2 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge from an upset defeat, while Cleveland is a poor 41-70 ATS as a favorite (or PK).  Take Atlanta.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over Sacramento.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings in Sacramento between these two teams.  The Kings won Round 1 at the buzzer, 95-94, so we'll take the Mavericks in the rematch.  Dallas is 128-78 ATS off a loss vs. a foe off a win.  Take the Mavs.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide has been installed as a huge double-digit favorite in this game.  I generally don't like to lay points in bowl games, and especially not when the favored team doesn't own the better defense or the better ground attack.  The Bearcats have given up just 16.1 ppg on the season (against foes that average 26 ppg), and fall into a 73.0% ATS defensive underdog system of mine, as well as a 67.5% ATS system which plays on certain bowl teams with better rushing statistics.  The Bearcats are 14-2 ATS their last 16 when not laying 11+ points, including 5-0 ATS their last five as an underdog.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Central Michigan.  The number on this game has come down signficiantly from where it was earlier this morning, so that's all we need to pull the trigger on Jake Dickert's Cougars.  Washington State ended its season on a 6-2 SU run, and the only game it failed to cover was by a half-point (38-24 loss to Oregon, as a 13.5-point underdog).  Today, Wazzu is favored in the Sun Bowl vs. the Mid-American Conference's Chippewas, who won their final four games of the season.  The Cougars are a solid 21-9 ATS when the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 7 or less, while the Chippewas are a wallet-breaking 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes when the line was 7 or less.  That bodes well for Washington State.  As does the fact that the Pac-12 has gone 18-9 in Bowl games when priced from -4 to -6 points, while the Mid American Conference has burned money as an underdog in that price range, with a 3-8 ATS record.  Finally, the Cougars were much better this season away from home than Central Michigan.  Washington State was 4-1 ATS in its road games, and covered by an average of 16.0 ppg, while the Chips were 3-3 ATS and only covered by 3.0 ppg.  Lay the points with Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons went 10-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS on the season, while Rutgers was 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.  The Scarlet Knights didn't qualify for a bowl game, given their losing record, but were tabbed by the Gator Bowl officials to replace Texas A&M, which pulled out due to COVID-19.  It's true that Rutgers comes into this game off back to back blowout losses to Penn State (28-0) and Maryland (40-16).  But we'll grab the points with the Scarlet Knights, as double-digit underdogs have gone 17-3 ATS in the post-season off a loss by 24+ points.  Even better:  Rutgers is 67-42 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Wake Forest is 4-18-1 ATS as a favorite of -5+ points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UTEP Miners + the points over UAB.  The Blazers are 10-3 after blowing out Mississippi Valley State, 100-58, as a 37.5-point favorite.  We played on UAB in that game, but will switch gears and take the double-digits with Texas El Paso tonight.  UAB is a miserable 38-65-1 ATS off a win by more than 13 points, while UTEP is a strong 31-16 ATS away from home when getting more than 12 points.  Take the Miners + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Wizards fell at home to the Cavs, 116-101, earlier this month.  We'll take the Wizards in this revenge match, as Cleveland is a soft 39-67 ATS on the road when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated by 10+ points earlier in the season.  And Washington is 19-7 ATS as a home favorite when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if the Wizards lost by 12+ points in that earlier match-up.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers minus the points over Fordham.  The Rams come into this Atlantic 10 opener off 4 straight ATS wins, but they're a wallet-busting 9-22-2 ATS off 3+ ATS wins, and 0-9-1 ATS when a road underdog, priced from +1.5 to +11.5, at La Salle.  Meanwhile, the Explorers were upset by Bucknell, 82-70, the last time they took the court.  But Atlantic 10 home teams are a super 7-0 ATS their last seven (and 36-10-1 ATS their last 47) conference games off a SU/ATS loss in which they were not getting more than 2 points.  Take La Salle minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over North Carolina.  Shane Beamer's Gamecocks were saddled with an exceptionally difficult schedule this season, and went 6-6.  Four of their six losses were against #3 Georgia, #19 Clemson, #23 Texas A&M, and #25 Kentucky.  And they also fell to SEC Conference foes Tennessee and Missouri, both of which made a Bowl game.  North Carolina, meanwhile, also played four teams ranked among the Top 25, and lost to three of the four:  #5 Notre Dame, #13 Pittsburgh, and #18 NC State.  The Tar Heels' lone win against a Top 25 team was a 58-55 victory vs. Wake Forest.  But the common thread among North Carolina's games vs. top-level teams was that it gave up a ton of points.  UNC surrendered 44 to Notre Dame, 55 to Wake Forest, 30 to Pittsburgh and 34 to NC State.  For the season, North Carolina went just 5-7 ATS, and gave up 31.5 ppg, yet it's favored by double-digits vs. South Carolina.  I'm generally not a fan of laying a lot of points in Bowl games, and even less so if a team has a swiss cheese defense, and has not shown a propensity to cover the number.  Indeed, NCAA Bowl teams have gone a woeful 0-10 ATS if they were favored by 7+ points, did not own a winning ATS record, and gave up 30+ points per game.  Grab the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Sacramento.  The Mavs will look for their 2nd straight win tonight, after upsetting Portland on Monday, while Sacramento will also look for its 2nd straight win, after defeating OKC last night.  Dallas is 34-15-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 16-5 ATS vs. a foe off a win, while Sacramento is 14-24 ATS at home off a win, when playing without rest.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Tennessee.  The Crimson Tide have dropped their last four to the point spread.  But SEC Conference teams, off 4+ ATS losses, have cashed 61% at home over the last 32 years vs. fellow SEC opponents off a SU win.  With Tennessee, indeed, off a win over Arizona, we'll lay the points with 'Bama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Charlotte.  The Pacers play this game with revenge from 2 losses at Charlotte in the first two meetings.  And Indy was favored in each of those defeats.  We'll lay the points with the Pacers, as revenge-minded NBA teams that were upset on the road in the previous two meetings, have gone 124-91 ATS in the regular season since 1990.  Take Indiana.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Gardner-Webb.  Georiga will conclude its non-conference schedule tonight with a home matchup against Gardner-Webb.  Georgia comes into this game off three straight ATS losses, including an upset at the hands of East Tennessee St. last Wednesday.  But the Dawgs are 35-20 ATS off back to back point spread defeats, including 12-4 ATS off an upset loss (and a perfect 6-0 ATS off an upset loss, if they off 3+ ATS defeats).  And Gardner-Webb is 1-6 ATS off a loss, when playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Lay the points with Georgia.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the William & Mary Tribe + the points over Hofstra.  The Pride come into this game off back to back upset wins against Arkansas and Monmouth.  Unfortunately, since 1990, Hofstra has covered just 35.7% as a favorite off back to back wins, when playing an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Meanwhile, the Tribe enter this Colonial Conference opener off a 22-point loss to Valparaiso.  And since 1990, NCAA underdogs of +13 (or more) points have cashed 64.1% in their first conference game, if they were off a loss by more than 18 points.  Take William & Mary.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Yale Bulldogs + the points over St. Mary's.  The Gaels come into this game off a blowout SU/ATS win over Missouri St., 75-58, as a 6.5-point home favorite.  Unfortunately, the Gaels are an awful 11-27 ATS as a home favorite of -4 (or more) points, if they are off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent lost its previous game, while Yale is a reliable 26-12 ATS away from home off back to back ATS defeats.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Lehigh Mountain Hawks + the points over Maryland.  The Terrapins have been installed as a big home favorite tonight, but they've had scant success in this role over the years.  Indeed, the Terrapins are a horrid 8-27 ATS when priced as a home favorite of -13 to -23 points, if they're playing an opponent which wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for the Terps on Tuesday.  Nor does the fact that Lehigh's 13-4 ATS when getting more than 8 points away from home.  Take Lehigh as a big road dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The T-Wolves upset the Celtics last night, 108-103, as a 5-point home dog, while the Knicks had Monday off.  We'll take the rested road favorite tonight, as Minnesota is 24-55 ATS as an unrested home underdog, and also 40-70 ATS at home off an upset win.  Lay the points with New York.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Houston.  LeBron James & Co. are in the midst of a 5-game losing streak.  But we will lay the points tonight, as road favorites off 4+ losses have cashed 12 straight times.  Take Los Angeles to rout the Rockets.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Cleveland.  The Pelicans had their 4-game win streak snapped on Sunday by the OKC Thunder.  They've been installed as a home underdog on Tuesday night, and we'll happily grab the points, as the Pelicans are 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 62-25-1 ATS their last 88) at home vs. .595 (or better) foes, when the Pels weren't favored by 3+ points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:15 pm, on Tuesday, in the First Responder Bowl, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals over Air Force.  The Falcons are 9-3, yet have been installed as an underdog vs. the 6-6 Cardinals, who were blown out by 31 points in their previous game by Kentucky (and failed to cover the spread by 34 points).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Air Force, but consider that, at Game 10 forward, underdogs that own a W/L percentage of at least .250 greater than their opponent have covered just 28.1% when not playing at home.  Even worse:  winning teams off back to back wins (like Air Force), and not getting more than 3 points, have covered just 37% in the post-season vs. foes off a loss, that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by 14+ points.  Louisville also falls into 154-97, 38-9 and 135-67 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Memphis.  We played on Memphis last night, and easily won with a 25-point blowout of Sacramento.  Unfortunately, the Grizzlies now have to face the league's second-best team off a loss.  The Suns were upset by Golden State on Christmas, so we'll back them to bounce back tonight, on Monday.  Phoenix is a reliable 9-1 ATS its last 10 (and 24-7 ATS its last 31) off a loss, when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe off a double-digit win.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over San Antone.  We played on the Spurs last night, and got the $$$ when they blew out the Pistons.  That was Gregg Popovich's crew's fourth straight win and cover -- and fifth win in its last six games.  The first of those five wins was against this Utah team.  We played on the Spurs in that game, and they pulled off the upset, 128-126, as an 11.5-point road underdog.  That victory snapped Utah's 8-game win streak, so I expect the Jazz to come out strong tonight in this revenge match.  And Utah will have a nice advantage from the fact that it had Sunday off, while the Spurs had to play Detroit.  The Jazz are 13-3 ATS as a revenge-minded road favorite priced from -3 to -9.5 points.  Lay it.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Minnesota.  The Celts led virtually the entire way vs. Milwaukee on Christmas Day, before succumbing in the final 30 seconds, 117-113.  We'll lay the points tonight, as Boston is 41-23 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, if its foe was a losing team.  And Minny is a wallet-breaking 57-142 ATS as a non-division home dog of more than 4 points in the regular season, provided the T-Wolves weren't off an upset loss.  Take the Celtics.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Clips haven't had any good fortune on the injury front this season.  Los Angeles was already without its best player, Kawhi Leonard, who is recovering from ACL surgery, and Luke Kennard (ankle), but now will also be without Paul George, who tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.  And those three physical injuries are on top of the COVID-19 related absences of Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson.  So, the Clippers will be a shell of themselves tonight when Denver comes into Crypto.com Arena.  The Nuggets will be looking to bounce back from a stunning loss to Charlotte -- a game Denver led by 17 points entering the 4th quarter.  Unfortunately, Charlotte destroyed Denver, 38-13 in that final quarter for the 8-point win.  Still, the Nuggets are a reliable 12-3 SU and 9-4-2 ATS on the road off an upset loss, while Los Angeles is a poor 4-11 ATS at home vs. a foe off a loss.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Detroit.  Don't look now, but the under-the-radar Spurs are making a push to get into the Playoff picture.  The Spurs started slow, and had a 4-13 SU (and 8-9 ATS) record at Thanksgiving.  But San Antone has gone 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS since then.  The Spurs had, perhaps, their most impressive win of the season three nights ago when they went into Los Angeles and handed the Lakers a 138-110 defeat, which was the Lakers' biggest loss this season, as well as the Spurs' highest-scoring game.  And that was also the Spurs' second straight upset win, as they stunned the Clippers two nights before the Lakers.  This evening, they'll welcome a Pistons team going in the opposite direction.  Detroit only win in its last 17 games was against the Heat, on December 19.  But that game was at home.  On the road, the Pistons have now lost nine straight games.  And they're 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS their last 11 in the Alamo City.  Meanwhile, the Spurs are 22-12 ATS off back to back upset wins, including 11-2 ATS when laying 4+ points.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards will be without G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this evening, and also should be without G Bradley Beal (23.3 ppg), who is listed as doubtful.  The Sixers also will be missing some players due to the COVID-19 protocols (Andre Drummond, Danny Green), but none as important as the Wizards' lost personnel.  We'll lay the points with Philly, as it will be looking to bounce back from an awful loss to the Hawks, as a 11-point favorite its last time on the court.  The good news is that rested road favorites have covered the spread 67% in the regular season since 1994 if they were off an upset loss as a favorite of 10+ points, and their opponent was off a win.  Take the 76ers minus the points.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings are ravaged by COVID-19-related player absences, but should get back Marvin Bagley and Louis King (as well as coach Alvin Gentry) this evening.  De'Aaron Fox is questionable, but hadn't cleared COVID-19 protocols as of Saturday night.  Memphis currently doesn't have such issues with its roster, and will be looking to snap a 3-game slide.  The Grizzlies' most recent loss was by 9 points, 113-104, to the league's #1 team, Golden State.  Memphis actually was in a great position to win, as it was tied at 102, before the Warriors ended the game on an 11-2 run.  That loss ended Memphis' 6-game road win streak, but this game should prove to be a great opportunity to start a new win streak on the road, as the Kings are a horrible 19-34 ATS at home vs. an opponent off a loss.  Even worse:  When the Kings have been installed as a home dog of 4+ points, they're 2-18 SU and 2-16-2 ATS!  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Detroit.  We played on the Lions last week as our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month, and easily got the $$$ as Detroit won outright, 30-12, as a 13-point home underdog.  But that was a perfect set-up for Detroit, as it was blown out by the Broncos the previous week.  And Detroit's now 5-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat.  But it's also 55-83-4 ATS on the road off a SU win.  That doesn't bode well for the Lions on Sunday.  Nor does that fact that, at Game 7 forward, NFL teams with a .200 (or worse) W/L record have covered just 23.3% after beating the point spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  These two teams met here last season, and Detroit upset the Falcons, 23-22.  But the Lions are an awful 7-19 ATS as an underdog of less than 8 points, if they were off a win, and playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over the New York Jets.  Last week, the Jaguars lost at home to Houston, 30-16, which was their 6th straight loss and 5th straight ATS defeat.  We played on the OVER 39.5 in that game, so we were thrilled with the result.  This week, we'll take Jacksonville to finally break into the win column for the first time in seven weeks.  And our play is as much a play AGAINST New York, as it is a play ON Jacksonville.  Indeed, the Jets are a horrid 2-12 ATS their last 14 (and have covered just 65 of their last 186) at home vs. foe that didn't have a winning record!  And .333 (or worse) teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have gone 112-74 ATS.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Indianapolis Colts.  Last week, we cashed our NFL Game of the Month on the Colts, who snapped New England's 7-game win streak.  And we also cashed our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month on the Lions against the Cardinals, when Detroit upset Arizona, as a 13-point underdog.  This week, we'll completely reverse course, and TAKE Arizona, and go AGAINST Indianapolis.  The Cardinals are a dominant 29-6-1 ATS at home when not laying 3+ points against a foe off a SU/ATS win, while Indy is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog off a win vs. foes off back to back losses.  And teams (like Indianapolis) off wins over foes that were on a 6-game (or better) win streak have gone 34-50 ATS in their next game when not laying 3+ points. 

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Boston Celtics.  The Bucks lost at Boston just 12 days ago, so they're playing this game with revenge.  And since 1990, in Christmas Day games, NBA teams have gone 33-19 ATS at home when they've lost the previous meeting to their opponent.  That bodes well for Milwaukee this afternoon.  As does the fact that the Bucks are 27-12 ATS at home vs. winning foes when playing with rest, when the game was priced with a point spread less than 8 points.  Meanwhile, Boston has covered just 10 of 37 regular season games with point spreads less than 8 points, if Boston wasn't a losing team, and their opponent was rested.  Finally, Milwaukee also falls into several of my best revenge systems, with records of 156-82, 215-138 and 89-42 ATS.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, in the Camellia Bowl, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Georgia State.  Ball State punched its ticket for the post-season when it defeated Buffalo, 20-3, as a 6-point favorite, to end its season, and reach the .500 mark.  The Panthers were 7-5, and finished second in the Sun Belt's East division, and are in a Bowl game for the third straight year.  We'll fade Georgia State here, as Sun Belt teams are a woeful 1-14-1 ATS in the post-season when favored against foes off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Ball State has been terrific as an underdog off less than 20 points away from Muncie, IN, as it's 9-1 ATS.  And the Cardinals also fall into a 42-17 ATS statistical system of mine, as well as a 156-97-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain bowl underdogs of more than 3 points. 

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Oklahoma City Thunder.  Last night, the Thunder upended the Nuggets, 108-94, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  And that was OKC's third straight win, as it also avenged its 73-point loss to Memphis with a 102-99 victory on Monday, and defeated the Clippers, 104-103, on Saturday.  But off those three triumphs, we'll fade the Thunder in the Valley of the Sun tonight.  Phoenix is a super 33-18 ATS at home vs. foes off three SU/ATS wins, including 12-3 ATS if its opponent was unrested.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Orlando.  After losing 7 straight, and 14 of 15, the Magic have now won back to back games.  Last night, they went into Atlanta, and upset the Hawks, 104-98.  And that followed a 7-point win against Brooklyn, on Saturday.  Tonight, Orlando will host a Pelicans squad which has won three straight, including a 14-point home win over Portland.  I love to go against bad teams off wins, and the Magic certainly are that.  They've only won seven games all season, and have won back to back games just once, and have covered three straight games just twice.  We'll lay the points with New Orleans tonight, as Orlando is a poor 6-15 ATS off a point spread win, and it's 0-15 straight-up, and 2-13 ATS as an unrested underdog off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take New Orleans minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, on Thursday afternoon, in the Frisco Football Classic, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green stunned the then-undefeated Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners, 45-23, as an 8.5-point home underdog in their final regular season game.  But off that upset win over the 11-0 Roadrunners, we'll fade North Texas in this Bowl game.  Indeed, at Game 9 forward, teams off wins over undefeated teams have covered just 1 of their last 14.  That bodes well for Miami-Ohio in this game.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs playing away from home, priced from +2 to +10.5 in the post-season, have covered just 20 of 65 games.  Lay the points with Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Clips were blown out at home by San Antone, 116-92, as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday.  But off that horrible loss, we'll lay the points with Los Angeles in Sacramento tonight.  Indeed, the Clippers are 57-35 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 28-12 ATS on the road.  Even better:  it plays this game with revenge from two losses to the Kings earlier this season.  And L.A. is a solid 64% in the regular season since 1990, if it owned a winning record, and was playing with double-revenge from two losses to its opponent earlier in the season.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Dixie State.  These two Beehive State schools are located less than an hour from one another.  And this will be the 2nd meeting of the season.  The first go-round was won by the Trailblazers, 83-76, as a 10.5-point home underdog, on November 12.  We'll lay the points with the Thunderbirds in this re-match, as Southern Utah falls into a 66% ATS revenge system of mine.  And Southern Utah is also 4-0 ATS with revenge against a non-conference foe.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks plus the points over North Dakota State.  The Bison have been installed as a double-digit home favorite over their rival, and we'll take the points with the Fighting Hawks, as the underdog in this rivalry has cashed 9 of 13, including 5-1 ATS on the road (and the road teams are 7-3 ATS their last 10).  Take the Fighting Hawks + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland.  The Celts come into this game off an upset loss to their division rival, Philadelphia, on Monday.  But off that loss, we'll lay the points with Ime Udoka's men tonight, as the Celtics are a solid 48-24 ATS off an upset division loss, including a perfect 8-0 ATS their last eight vs. foes off a straight-up win.  Take Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Mississippi Valley State.  The Delta Devils are 0-9 on the season, while UAB is 9-3 after dropping a home game to West Virginia on Saturday.  We'll lay the points with the Blazers, as they've covered the spread at home 68.5% vs. non-conference foes since 1990, if they were off a SU loss.  Take UAB minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wichita State Shockers minus the points over Prairie View A&M.  The Shockers were "shocked" here, at home, by North Texas, on Saturday.  But off that double-digit upset loss, we'll lay the wood with Wichita tonight, as it's covered 71% at home over the last 32 years off a double-digit upset defeat.  Take the Shockers minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Robert Morris Colonials + the points over Saint Francis (PA).  Both of these teams come into tonight's game off blowout losses.  Robert Morris lost by 26 at Bowling Green, while the Red Flash fell by 58 at Illinois.  Tonight, the Red Flash have been installed as a home favorite.  But it's a poor 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 5 (or more) points.  And it's 3-14 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  Take the points with Robert Morris.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Nicholls State.  The Beavers are 1-10 on the season after dropping their 10th straight game on Saturday, 83-73, to Texas A&M.  But teams on 10-game (or worse) losing streaks have covered 60.8% over the last 20 years when favored by more than four points.  Lay the points with Oregon State.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Georgia State.  These two cross-town rivals met in last season's opening game, and the Panthers won, perhaps, the most exciting game of the NCAA season, as they down the Yellow Jackets, 123-120, in four overtimes.  Georgia Tech does come into this game off four straight losses.  But those games were against a quartet of power conference foes (Wisconsin, North Carolina, LSU and USC), of which all but the Tar Heels rank among the country's Top 25.  So, this will be a step-down-in-class for Georgia Tech, and we'll lay the points against a Panthers team which is 0-5 ATS on the road this season.  Additionally, Georgia State is an awful 1-15-1 ATS on the road vs. a revenge-minded foe off a double-digit SU/ATS loss.  Take Georgia Tech.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville.  The Jaguars had their 8-game win streak snapped on Friday, at Tarleton St.  But off that loss, we'll lay the points with Richie Riley's men tonight.  Indeed, since 1990, teams off an upset loss, which snapped an 8-game (or longer) win streak, have bounced back to cover the spread 60.6% of regular season games vs. a foe off a SU win.  Take South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers over the Miami Heat.  The Pacers will look to avenge an upset loss at home to the Heat 18 days ago.  Indiana was favored by 5.5 points in that game, yet fell by 9, 113-104.  The Pacers have gone 4-2 SU since that game, including a 122-113 victory over Detroit (as a 10-point favorite) their last time out.  But they've dropped their last two games to the spread.  Still, we'll lay the points with the Pacers, as they're 128-91 ATS  off a point spread defeat when favored, and playing with revenge against an opponent which defeated them earlier in the season.  Moreover, the Heat were upset on the road by Detroit in their last game.  Unfortunately, the Heat have burned money at home over the last 32 years after getting upset on the road in their previous game, and especially when matched up against a foe off back to back ATS losses.  In that situation, Miami's covered just 21% since 1990.  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs over Texas San Antonio.  Both of these teams had spectacular seasons.  And they were similar in that each of them overachieved.  Texas San Antonio opened the season with an upset win as a 4.5-point underdog over Illinois.  That was our first big play of the College season, and the Roadrunners went on to win their first 11 games (8-3 ATS) before finally losing at North Texas in Game #12.  They then won their Conference USA Championship game against Western Kentucky, and we played on them in that victory, as well.  Likewise, San Diego State won 11 of its first 12 games (6-5-1 ATS) before losing the Mountain West Championship game to Utah State.  It's hard for me to pass up the Aztecs in this underdog role, given that it has given up just 14.2 ppg in its five road games this season.  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has surrendered 31.3 ppg in its six road games.  And the Roadrunners' record-setting RB, Sincere McCormick (1663 total yards), will skip the game, so he won't get injured in advance of April's NFL draft.  McCormick is San Antone's career leader in rushing yards (3,929), touchdowns (34) and all-purpose yards (4,438), and was just named Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, in addition to several 2nd-team and 3rd-team All-American honors.  Mountain West Conference teams have gone 37-24 ATS as underdogs in the post-season, including 7-2 ATS when they owned a defense that gave up less than 19.5 ppg.  Finally, San Diego St. is 7-1 ATS its last eight as an underdog (and 24-12 ATS its last 36) off a double-digit conference defeat.  Take the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams come into this game off back to back wins over Jacksonville and Arizona.  And that victory over the Cardinals was an upset win as a 3-point road underdog.  The Rams have been very good since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017 when they have been off a loss (17-8 SU, 15-9 ATS), but awful when they've been off back to back wins (15-17 SU, 9-23 ATS), including 0-10 ATS their last 10 as a favorite off back-to-back wins.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Seahawks will be playing with revenge from a 26-17 defeat to the Rams earlier this year.  And Seattle is 23-11 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 12-2 ATS when catching 3+ points.  Finally, Seattle falls into a 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams against foes off wins.  Take the Seahawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Elon.  Arkansas sprinted out to a 9-0 record before dropping games to Oklahoma and Hofstra in the last 10 days.  But I look for Eric Musselman's men to rebound tonight, as the Razorbacks are a reliable 86-53-3 ATS at home off a loss.  Even better:  NCAA teams with a win percentage of at least .818 have cashed 70.5% at home over the past 32 years vs. losing teams, if our home team was off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And Elon's a wallet-breaking 11-24-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss, including 2-11 ATS when getting more than 5 points.  Lay the points with Arkansas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on The Citadel minus the points over Manhattan.  In a matchup of "Bulldogs," The Citadel was upset last night by cross-state rival, South Carolina State, 74-57, as a 12-point home favorite, in the opening round of The Citadel Classic.  That upset loss shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise, as South Carolina State was looking to avenge a loss to The Citadel in Orangeburg a few weeks ago.  We'll take the Bulldogs to bounce back here, at home, tonight vs. the Jaspers, as it's 11-3 ATS its last 14 at home, or on neutral courts, while Manhattan is a woeful 0-7 ATS its last 7 vs. opponents off a double-digit loss.  Take The Citadel minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Davidson.  This game will be played on a neutral court, in Birmingham, AL.  Nate Oats' men do come into this game off three straight ATS losses.  But I look for 'Bama to get back into the (point spread) win column tonight, as the Crimson Tide is a solid 19-7-1 ATS away from home if it was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  It's true that Bob McKillop has built a great program at Davidson over the last few decades, and he will be seeking his 21st straight winning season this year.  But one area he has NOT had much success is against the country's better teams, as Davidson is 10-48 straight-up, and 18-39-1 ATS as an underdog of +15 (or less) points (or PK) vs. .742 (or better) opposition.  Take Alabama to blow out the Wildcats.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over San Antonio.  The Kings were blown out, 136-117, by the Spurs in the Alamo City on November 10.  We'll take the Kings in this revenge match, as they're 93-64-3 ATS at home off a loss when playing with revenge from a loss by 10+ points.  Meanwhile, the Spurs fall into a negative 41-81 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Kings + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Holy Cross Crusaders + the points over Harvard.  Harvard comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, and has been installed as a huge favorite vs. the Crusaders.  But Harvard is a wallet-breaking 12-25-1 ATS as a favorite, including 1-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  And Holy Cross has covered 61.7% since 1990 when getting more than 8 points, including 70% ATS if it was off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Holy Cross + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Colgate Raiders + the points over Monmouth.  The Raiders come into this Gotham Classic game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Pittsburgh and St. John's, while the Hawks are off back to back SU/ATS wins over Pittsburgh and Yale.  Unfortunately for Monmouth, it's 1-8 ATS off back to back wins, when matched up against an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Raiders + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Robert Morris Colonials + the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons have been installed as a double-digit favorite vs. Robert Morris.  But Bowling Green hasn't been the most reliable favorite over the years.  Indeed, it's covered just eight of 41 games as a favorite, including 0-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite, and 0-11-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Take Robert Morris.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 1-11-1, but they play extremely hard, and have covered the spread in eight of their 13 games, including four of their last five.  They were blown out, 38-10, by Denver last week, so that was one of the five instances they didn't cover the spread.  But, frankly, that was to be somewhat expected given that Detroit had actually won its first game of the season the previous week vs. Minnesota, while Denver was looking to redeem itself following its double-digit loss the previous week.  We had a play against Detroit last week, but we will switch gears and take it this afternoon.  Indeed, Detroit is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat (and also 4-0 ATS off a double-digit loss).  And it's 29-11 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit loss, when matched up against an opponent off a defeat.  Arizona does have the league's best record, at 10-3, but it did lose last week, at home, vs. the Rams.  Unfortunately, teams with exceptional W/L records have NOT bounced back off losses late in the regular season, as they've covered just 37.1% at Game 14 forward in the regular season.  And the league's worst teams -- with win percentages less than .150 -- have done great toward the end of the season, when installed as a home underdog vs. an opponent off a loss, as they've gone 35-20 ATS since 1980 at Game 12 forward.  Take Detroit + the double-digits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  The Herd were blown out, 53-21, by Western Kentucky at the end of their regular season.  But off that blowout loss, we'll step in and grab the points with Marshall on Saturday, as it's generally bounced back off poor games.  For example, the Thundering Herd are 10-0-2 ATS off a loss by more than 25 points, if they weren't laying 3+ points in their current game.  Even better:  Marshall's 12-3 ATS in the Bowl games, while the Rajin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in the Bowls since 2016.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are on an historic 13-game point spread win streak, and have covered by an average of 8.36 ppg (through 30 games).  To put this in perspective, going into Game 31 of a season, the 2nd best team (Boston, 2008) covered the spread by "just" 6.28 ppg.  So, Cleveland is a country mile ahead of that impressive Celtics team (which went on to win the NBA title).  Tonight, the Cavs will try to avenge a defeat to one of the only two teams to defeat it since Thanksgiving.  Cleveland and Milwaukee played back on Dec. 6, and the Bucks won that game, 112-104, as an 8.5-point favorite, so the Cavs eked out an ATS win.  But tonight (due to player absences), the Cavs have been installed as a road favorite.  But even though Milwaukee will be missing Giannis Antetokounmpo, and a few other key players, it isn't bereft of talent.  We'll take Milwaukee at this price, as Mike Budenholzer's men have won the last eight games SU, and they're also 8-2 ATS over the last 10 meetings with the Cavs.  Take Milwaukee + the points to snap Cleveland's 13-game ATS win streak.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Utah State.  This game will be played at the Sanford Pentagon, in Sioux Falls, SD.  Iowa will be looking to redeem itself after getting blown out by rival, Iowa State, 73-53, as a 5-point favorite, nine days ago.  Based on history, it should, as it's 41-24 ATS off a loss by more than 15 points, as well as 10-3 ATS after failing to cover by 23+ points (including 6-0 ATS when favored by more than 3).  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over New England.  Dating back to October 24, New England has ripped off seven straight wins and covers.  But only one of the seven teams it has defeated (Tennessee) has had a winning record in its games since October 24.  So, Indianapolis will represent a great challenge for New England, given that the Colts are 6-2 over their last eight games (and 7-3 ATS over their last 10).  Last week, the Colts accomplished an impressive feat, when it shut out the Texans on the road, 31-0.  And NFL teams off road shutout wins have gone 68-45-2 ATS since 1980.  Even better:  the Patriots had last week off following their big upset win at division rival, Buffalo.  But when a team is playing as well as New England, it can often be counter-productive in the regular season to have a week off.  Indeed, rested NFL underdogs off a division win (and 3 straight ATS wins overall) have gone 0-15 straight-up and 1-13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1980.  Take the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Hofstra.  This game will be played at Simmons Bank Arena, in Little Rock tonight.  The Razorbacks were upset by Oklahoma last Saturday.  But they're a fantastic 31-15 ATS at home, or on a neutral court in non-conference games, if they were off a loss, including 13-2 ATS off an upset defeat.  Additionally, the Razorbacks fall into a 65.8% ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off upset losses.  Lay the points tonight with Arkansas.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Southern Utah.  The Wolverines have had an up-and-down season after starting the year ranked among the Top 5.  Juwan Howard's men have now lost games to Seton Hall, Arizona, North Carolina and Minnesota.  The last game (vs. Minnesota) was the least probable, as Michigan was a 13.5-point home favorite in that contest.  But off that loss, we'll lay the points this evening, as Michigan is 72-39-2 ATS its last 113 off a loss in its previous game, including 11-0-1 its last 12 (and 30-9-1 its last 40) when priced from -5.5 to -16 points.  Take the Wolverines.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Canisius Golden Griffins + the points over Buffalo.  This cross-town rivalry game will be played at KeyBank Center this afternoon, as part of a triple-header of hoops in downtown Buffalo.  Like many City rivalries, this one has been kind to the underdog, which has gone 12-6-1 ATS since 1993, including 6-2-1 ATS when getting more than 6 points.  We'll fade Buffalo today, as Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 71 of 173 as a double-digit favorite vs. losing opponents playing away from home, if such foe was off back to back SU/ATS losses.  With Canisius currently riding a 5-Game SU/ATS losing streak, we'll grab the double-digits with the Golden Griffins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Northern Colorado.  The Cougars lost here, at home, on Wednesday, 64-61, as a 7.5-point favorite.  After that defeat, Washington State's coach, Kyle Smith, questioned his team's toughness and grit when he fielded questions at the press conference.  So, I expect his men will have heard that criticism, and will respond today with a much better effort.  For technical support, consider that Wazzu is 38-19 ATS as a favorite of -7 (or more) points off a loss, including a wallet-fattening 25-9 ATS vs. foes that don't have a winning record.  Moreover, the Northern Colorado Bears have gone 1-5-1 ATS their last seven games vs. the Pac-12 Conference and are 0-14 SU vs. the Pac-12 since 1990.  Lay the points with Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Fresno State.  Unless one is betting on a top-level team, it's generally not a good idea to lay a lot of points in Bowl games.  And Fresno State -- with its 9-3 record, and scoring margin less than 14 ppg -- certainly is not a top-level team.  The Bulldogs have been terrific as an underdog in the post-season (10-3 ATS), but horrid as a favorite/Pk in the Bowls, as it's 1-7 ATS!  Meanwhile, UTEP is 5-0 ATS its last 5, and 13-6 ATS its last 19 games as a rested underdog of +6 (or more) points.  Take the double-digits with Texas El Paso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Timberwolves this past Wednesday, and they rewarded us with an upset win over the Denver Nuggets.  But we will switch gears, and fade Minnesota tonight.  These two teams met earlier this season at Staples Center (now Crypto.com Arena), and the T-Wolves walloped the Lakers, 107-83, as a 2.5-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Los Angeles in this revenge match, as the Lakers are 51-29 ATS as a road favorite, when playing with revenge, including 36-18 if they lost at home to their opponent in the prior meeting.  Even better:  Los Angeles is 47-25 ATS on the road vs. non-division losing teams off an upset win, while Minnesota is 0-12-1 ATS off an upset win by more than 7 points, if it was playing a non-division foe.  Take the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Utah.  We played on the Jazz in each of their last two games, and they rewarded us with blowout wins over Washington (123-98) and Los Angeles (124-10).  And that last victory was an emotional one for Utah, as it avenged their Playoffs ouster by the Clippers last spring.  Utah's now won eight straight, and has covered their last four.  But off that emotional win, we will fade the Jazz tonight.  Indeed, NBA teams that won by double-digits to avenge a Playoff series loss have had a letdown their next game when playing inferior teams with significantly worse win percentages (they've lost 82.3% since 1991).  The Spurs gave up 131 points in their last game -- a home loss to Charlotte.  And coach Gregg Popovich called out his team for their lack of competitiveness.  The Spurs typically respond well when their coach challenges them after a poor game, and they're 7-1-1 ATS their last nine after giving up 125+ points, and 6-0-1 ATS after a loss by 15+ points.  Take the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Friday, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Toledo.  In this battle between the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA, we're going to take the points with Middle Tennessee St.  The Mid-American Conference teams have not fared well when laying points over the years, including 3-6 ATS over their last nine as a favorite of more than four in the Bowls.  Meanwhile, Conference USA teams have been strong as double-digit Bowl underdogs, as they've gone 12-7 ATS.  The Blue Raiders come into this game off an impressive upset win at Florida Atlantic, 27-17.  And that road victory enabled the Blue Raiders to qualify for a Bowl game.  Middle Tennessee is now 8-0 ATS its last eight when priced from +4 to +11 points.  Even better:  .500 (or better) double-digit underdogs, off a double-digit upset win, have cashed 61% of non-conference games over the last 42 years, including 75% of Bowl games.  Grab the points with Middle Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild -1.5 goals over Buffalo.  The Wild lost at Vegas, 6-4, on Sunday.  But they were playing their 3rd game in four nights, and were also unrested.  Tonight, they're going to be well-rested, as they haven't played since that Sunday game.  It also was their 2nd straight defeat (both on the road), but Minnesota is a perfect 8-0 off back to back road losses, and 20-7 off back to back losses, generally.  The Sabres did snap their 7-game losing streak with a 4-2 win at Winnipeg on Tuesday.  Unfortunately, the Sabres are also 4-20 away from home off a win.  Take Minnesota -1.5 goals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Jackson State.  Last season, the Bulldogs opened their campaign with 18 straight wins, and also covered their first 13.  This season, the Bulldogs covered their first lined game, on November 14, vs. South Dakota.  But they've gone 0-8 ATS since (4-4 straight-up).  Tonight, they're laying double-digits to Jackson St., who will be playing its 3rd straight game in in the State of Iowa.  Jackson State dropped the first two, as they fell by 10 points each to Northern Iowa and Iowa State.  We'll lay the points, as we note that Drake is 10-3 ATS at home when favored by 9 or more vs. non-conference foes off back to back losses.  And the Bulldogs also fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which takes certain double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss.  Lay the points with Drake.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Clippers upset the then-number 1-seeded Jazz in last year's Playoffs, so Utah would like nothing better than to avenge that post-season ouster tonight.  Utah's now won seven in a row, including a 123-98 blowout of Washington on Saturday.  We played on the Jazz in that game, and will roll with Utah again tonight.  The Jazz are 94-60-5 ATS at home vs. winning opponents, when rested, and off a win by 12+ points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Denver.   The Nuggets won at Minnesota earlier this season, 93-91, as a 1.5-point underdog.  And that extended the success of the road team in this series to 44-10 ATS.  We'll look for that series trend to continue tonight, and take the points with a T-Wolves team which was buoyed by the return of D'Angelo Russell (after a 3-game absence) on Sunday night.  Minnesota was a 3-point underdog in that game at Portland, and upset the Blazers, 116-111.  And the T-Wolves are now 9-3 ATS their last 12 games with Russell in the lineup.  Take Minnesota + the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Portland.  These two teams met here last season, and the Ducks won, 80-41, as a 24.5-point favorite.  Oregon did lose at Pac-12 rival, Stanford, 72-69, on Sunday, which was its second straight loss, overall.  But the Ducks are 8-0 ATS their last eight home games vs non-conference foes, if the Ducks were off back to back losses.  Take the Ducks minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Lipscomb.  Both teams enter tonight's game on losing streaks.  The Bisons have dropped 4 straight, while the Seminoles have lost their last three (and also failed to cover their last four).  If there is a silver lining for Florida State, it's that its last two losses were narrow.  It lost by a single point to South Carolina this past Sunday, 66-65, as a 6.5-point favorite.  And it fell by 3 to Syracuse on the previous weekend.  Over the last 27 years, Florida State's gone 9-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points off back to back losses.  And it's also been terrific off 3+ losses, as it's gone 41-20 ATS, overall.  We'll lay the points with Florida State, as it falls into a super 56-13 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset losses.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Rebels were stunned by Western Kentucky, 71-48, on Saturday, as a 5.5-point favorite, while Middle Tennessee St. won (and covered) at Tennessee-Martin.  We'll lay the points with Ole Miss, as NCAA teams off 20-point (or worse) upset losses to non-conference foes, have bounced back to cover 64.5% of the time since 1990 when matched up against another non-conference foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Ole Miss is 22-9 ATS at home off an upset loss.  Lay the points with the Rebels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Hawks will look to bounce back off their home upset loss to the Houston Rockets, 132-126, as a 9.5-point favorite.  And that was Atlanta's 2nd straight upset defeat.  But rested road favorites are a solid 65-33 ATS off back to back upset defeats.  And the Hawks have also gone 77-47-2 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points, while Orlando is 0-16-2 ATS at home vs. foes off back to back losses, if the Magic weren't laying 3+ points.  Take the Hawks.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights + the points over Fairfield.  The Stags are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak and have been installed as a big road favorite at Fairleigh Dickinson.  We'll fade Fairfield, as it's 10-23 ATS off 3 ATS wins (and 1-9 ATS off 4 ATS wins).  Take Fairleigh Dickinson + the points.