Sports Picks & Predictions

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Toledo.  Both of these teams had terrific starts to their 2020 Mid-American Conference campaign.  Toledo blew out Bowling Green at home, 38-3, and outgained the Falcons by 257 yards, while Western Michigan annihilated Akron on the road, 58-13, and outyarded the Zips by 228.  The Broncos are back in Kalamazoo for their home home opener, and we'll lay the points with WMU tonight.  Since 1980, unrested underdogs of less than 16 points, playing away from home, have covered just 31% vs. foes with a scoring margin of 44+ points.  And the Rockets are also a poor 3-11 ATS away from home, including 1-8 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams.  And they're 0-8 ATS off a Mid-American Conference home win.  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over New England.  The Patriots are on their way to their first losing season since 2000 when they went 5-11.  They're scoring just 19.42 ppg, while they're giving up 23.85, for a -4.43 average margin of victory.  Given these numbers, it's difficult to make a case for New England as a large road favorite -- even against a team as hapless as the New York Jets.  Consider that, at Game 6 forward, losing teams, favored by 8+ points, are a wallet-busting 17-37 ATS if their defense surrenders 23.67 ppg!  Even worse:  favorites of more than 3 points, with a W/L percentage less than .310, have covered just 30.2% since 1980.  And teams with a negative scoring margin that are favored by 7+ points, have gone 154-231-6 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win.  Indeed, we saw this particular angle win yesterday when the Houston Texans (with a negative 7.28 margin of victory) failed to cover their 7-point spread vs. Jacksonville.  The bottom line is that when it comes to bad teams, it's generally better to take points than to lay them.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  As faithful followers know, we've been terrific over the year on our futures plays.  Already in 2020, we've cashed the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7-1 odds, and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4-1 odds.  Our NFL preseason pick was the New Orleans Saints (at 10-1 odds).  New Orleans did get its season off to a fine start with a 34-23 win over these Buccaneers.  But, if truth be told, they've not impressed since, as they've not won a game by 7+ points since then.  Yes, New Orleans has won four straight games coming into this Sunday Night contest, but those wins were by 6 (Lions), 3 (Chargers), 3 (Panthers) and 3 (Bears) points.  They'll now face a revenge-minded division rival, in the Buccaneers.  And that will lead many bettors over to the Tampa Bay side, especially since the Bucs are on a 3-game win streak, including a noteworthy 38-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers -- a team which beat the Saints by seven, 37-30.  But we will step in and take the points with the underdog Saints, as I feel they're due for a breakout game.  Also, Sean Payton has coached the Saints to a 56-24-3 ATS record vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including 11-0-1 ATS their last 12 when getting more than 2 points.  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Pittsburgh.  It's absolutely true that these two teams are going in an opposite direction.  Dallas is 2-6 straight-up, and a horrid 0-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has covered five straight games, and is the NFL's lone undefeated team, at 8-0.  The Steelers have been installed as a double-digit road favorite.  And, as I've often written, one of the last things an NFL bettor should do is take a double-digit road favorite.  Certainly, if an NFL team is installed as a double-digit home underdog, then it's bad.  Really bad.  That being said, these horrible teams have been one of the most reliable bets over the last 41 years.  They're 103-78-2 ATS their last 183, including a perfect 3-0 ATS already this season.  The most recent double-digit home dog was the New York Giants, when it caught 13 points from Tampa Bay on a Monday Night game.  The Giants took Tampa down to the wire, and lost by just two, 25-23.  Previous to that was Philadelphia, which almost upset Baltimore as a 10.5-point home dog.  And the other one was Washington, which covered as a 14.5-point home dog vs. the Ravens.  The Steelers are 29-52 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 0-8 ATS when laying more than 9.  Take Dallas + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Seattle.  This is a great match-up between the 6-2 Bills and 6-1 Seahawks.  The Achilles' heel for Seattle this season is its defense.  It's giving up 28.4 ppg (against foes that score 25.1), and 6.3 yards per play.  So, it's hard for me to take Seattle in this situation, and lay points on the road to a very good team.  Indeed, really good NFL teams, with W/L percentages greater than .750, are a poor 11-30 ATS on the road if they don't own the better defense, and are laying 3 or more points.  That doesn't bode well for Seattle.  Nor does the fact that Buffalo is an awesome 51-22 ATS at home off a point spread defeat vs. foes off a straight-up win.  With Buffalo, indeed, off an ATS loss last week vs. New England, we'll take the points with the Bills on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Minnesota.  The Lions announced that QB Matthew Stafford will be eligible to play today, after successfully completing the COVID protocols after being exposed to the virus.  That's enough for me to pull the trigger on the underdog Lions, as I want to go against Minnesota off its upset road win at Green Bay last Sunday.  Indeed, underdogs off a double-digit loss have covered 75% over the last 41 years vs. division rivals, if its foe owned a losing record, and was off an upset division win in its previous game.  Even better:  Detroit is a wallet-fattening 39-14-4 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 10 points, including a perfect 10-0 if it was getting more than 3 points vs. .350 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Lions + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Chicago.  After storming out of the gates with a 5-0 record, the Titans have dropped their last two games.  But one was against the undefeated Steelers, so it's hard to find too much fault.  Today, they'll welcome the 5-3 Bears to Nashville.  We'll lay the points, as NFL teams with a .700 (or better) W/L percentage, off back to back losses, have covered 61.6% over the last 41 years.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Denver.  The Falcons were 0-5 when they fired Dan Quinn, and replaced him with Raheem Morris.  Since then, Atlanta has gone 2-1, but easily could be 3-0 if it had only not allowed the Lions to score a touchdown as time expired, in a 23-22 defeat.  In their last game, the Falcons went into Carolina, and upset the Panthers, 25-17.  We played on Atlanta in that game, and will take them again today, as they'll welcome a Broncos team which pulled off a division upset last Sunday.  Since 1980, road underdogs have covered just 63 of 155 non-division games off an upset division win at home.  Take Atlanta.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Arkansas.  Tennessee comes into this game riding a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, following its 48-17 loss to Alabama.  Yet the Volunteers have been installed as a small road favorite vs. the Razorbacks, who have covered all five games this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Razorbacks, and against the cold Volunteers.  But consider that, over the past 41 years, road favorites have covered 70.5% of conference games if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off 3+ ATS wins.  Additionally, Tennessee is a terrific 14-0 ATS as a road favorite of 13 or less points off an ATS loss.  Take the Volunteers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  The Irish have given up 13 points or less in five of their six football games this season.  And they're allowing a meager 10.3 ppg (against foes that average 23.9).  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. a Clemson team which has failed to cover the spread in five of its seven games this season.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on strong defensive teams as home underdogs.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 6 forward, home dogs (or PK) that allow 13.7 (or less) points have cashed 61.1% of their conference games.  Even better:  the Irish are 19-7 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +7 points, while Clemson is a wallet-busting 4-16 ATS on the road when priced as a favorite of less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Notre Dame + the points to upset Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Florida State.  The Panthers started 3-0, but have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS -- largely because of the injury to QB Kenny Pickett in the 3rd quarter of the Boston College game.  Of course, the fact that Pitt played Miami and Notre Dame their previous two games was a big factor, as well.  This afternoon's game vs. Florida State will be a welcome step-down in class for Pat Narduzzi's men.  And I love Pitt to bounce back this afternoon, as NCAA teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have covered 59% over the last 41 years as a road underdog of less than 6 points.  On the other sideline, Florida State is giving up a ghastly 35 points per game, and has covered just two of its six games this season.  Even worse for the Seminoles:  they're 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite, including an outright upset loss to Georgia Tech when they were favored by 13 points.  And they've covered just 13 of their last 37 ACC games as a favorite.  Indeed, it's hard to make a case for an NCAA team as a favorite when they give up 35 ppg.  And, at Game 7 forward, conference favorites have covered just 40% of the time since 1980, if they give up at least 35 ppg, and play an opponent with a better record (both inside the conference, and overall), and a better defense (which rates at least 11 points better).  Take Pitt + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  After opening its season with an impressive 44-34 upset win at LSU, the Bulldogs have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS.  Last week's game was particularly uninspired, as they managed just 200 yards of offense, in a shutout loss at Alabama.  But Mississippi State is back home in Starkville this afternoon.  And their opponent is the 0-4 Commodores rather than the Crimson Tide.  One of the things I love to do is play on double-digit NCAA home favorites in conference games, off back-to-back conference defeats, if they lost their previous game by 20+ points.  These teams have bounced back to cover the spread 62% of the time.  And for all of Miss State's recent problems, the Commodores have actually been worse.  Vandy is 0-4 SU this season, and has lost its last three games ATS by an average of 16.3 ppg.  And it's also 0-9 ATS its last nine when getting less than 21 points!  Take Mississippi State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Illinois.  The Gophers come into this game off back to back losses to start their 2020 season.  Certainly, PJ Fleck did not envision that his team would be 0-2 at that point, after going 11-2 last year, and being ranked #21 to start the season.  A 49-24 season-opening loss to Michigan wasn't wholly unexpected.  But last week's 45-44 overtime defeat at Maryland was a head-scratcher, as Minnesota was favored by 17.5 points.  But 0-2 road favorites, that had a winning record the previous season, have cashed 68.9% over the last 41 years.  Even better:  teams playing away from home have gone 20-4 ATS if they were upset as an 11-point (or bigger) favorite their previous game, and were off back to back losses overall.  Take the Gophers to bounce back at Champaign this afternoon.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  The Spartans pulled off a gigantic upset last Saturday when they went into Ann Arbor and upset their rival, Michigan, 27-24, as a 21.5-point road underdog.  Can MSU make it two-in-a-row?  It's not likely, as NCAA teams playing back-to-back games on the road have covered just 26.6% of the time if they won their previous game as an underdog of greater than 20 points.  That bodes well for the Hawkeyes on Saturday.  As does the fact that Iowa's a solid 39-28 ATS off back to back losses.  And it's an awesome 24-6-1 ATS off a loss when priced as a favorite of 7 points or less, including a perfect 11-0-1 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 6-0, and ranked among the Top 25, yet have been installed as a heavy underdog vs. the 4-2 Hokies.  At first blush, the point spread may seem like an overlay, given that Liberty's last three wins have been by 33, 17 and 21 points -- including a victory over ACC member Syracuse.  But Virginia Tech has won its two home games against two winning teams -- NC State and Boston College -- by 21 and 26 points.  And it's also 18-7-1 ATS at home vs. .800 (or better) opponents, at Game 6 forward (including 7-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins).  Meanwhile, underdogs (like Liberty) off 3 SU wins as a favorite are 17-43 ATS away from home.  But the clincher is that, at Game 7 forward, .857 (or better) road underdogs have cashed just 46 of 122 off a SU/ATS win by 13+ points.  Take Virginia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over BYU.  The Cougars come into this game with a gaudy 7-0 record, and have been installed as a road favorite at Boise State, which RARELY loses here at home on the blue turf.  How rare?  Boise's lost just nine of 137 home games over the past 22 seasons, and is 38-3 straight-up at home when priced as an underdog, or a favorite of 10 points or less.  And it's cashed 22 of its last 28 at home when not favored by more than 10 points!  That bodes very well for the underdog Broncos on Friday night.  More good news:  BYU's cashed just eight of 20 games as a road favorite, while Boise's cashed 75% as a revenge-minded underdog.  Meanwhile, unbeaten teams (like BYU) with a 5-0 (or better) record) have cashed just 30.4% over the last 41 years as a road favorite of 7 (or less) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Boise State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Miami (Fla.).  Both of these ACC Conference teams come into this Friday night game off a bye week.  Miami has won two straight following its 42-17 loss at #1-ranked Clemson, and is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, NC State is 4-2 SU/ATS following its 48-21 loss at rival, North Carolina, two weeks ago.  The good news for the Wolfpack is that it's 2-0 SU/ATS this season at home.  And it's also 31-14-2 ATS as a home underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  NC State is 29-14 ATS off a loss, if it's playing with revenge from a loss to its opponent in the previous meeting.  And the Wolfpack fall into an 84-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Finally, Miami is a dreadful 17-34 ATS off a home conference win, including 0-8 ATS its last eight, and 0-12 ATS when priced from -4 to -20 points vs. .250 (or better) foes.  Take North Carolina State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we had a big play on the Cowboys as a home underdog vs. Hawaii, and were rewarded with a 31-7 upset win.  In that game, we played against the road favorite Rainbow Warriors, who were off a double-digit upset conference win.  Now, here, we'll play against the road favorite Cowboys, who are also off a double-digit upset conference win.  And NCAA road favorites of less than 13 points (or PK) have covered just 48 of 141 conference games off a double-digit upset conference win.  Even better:  Wyoming has been dreadful on the road when favored by 3+ points, as it's covered just 12 of 37.  Take the Rams as a home underdog + the points tonight.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  Last year, the Golden Flashes went into Ypsilanti and stunned Eastern Michigan, 34-26, as a 4-point road underdog.  The Eagles will get their chance to avenge that defeat in this season opener.  And, if history is any guide, they will.  Indeed, teams playing with revenge from an upset home loss the previous season have cashed 68% of their season openers, when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Golden Flashes are a horrible 2-10 ATS their last 12 (and 16-32 ATS their last 48) when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over San Francisco.  The Niners come into Sunday's game off back to back upset wins over the Rams (24-16) and Patriots (33-6).  Can they pull off their 3rd straight upset?  It will be most difficult, as they catch division rival Seattle off an overtime upset defeat to Arizona, 37-34.  That was Seattle's first loss of the season (after five wins), and I love it to bounce back this afternoon.  Since 1980, winning home favorites are an awesome 57-33 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Even better:  the Seahawks play this game with revenge from a loss here at home to the Niners in the season's final regular season game.  That handed last year's division title to San Francisco.  But revenge-minded NFL favorites, off an upset loss, are 107-67 ATS.  Take Seattle minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over New Orleans.  We played against the Bears last Monday, and were rewarded with a 24-10 SU/ATS win by the Los Angeles Rams.  But we'll switch gears this afternoon, and play on Chicago as a home underdog.  These two teams actually met here, at Soldier Field, last season, and the Bears were defeated 36-25.  But revenge-minded home underdogs, with a winning record, have cashed 65.6% over the past 41 seasons vs. non-division foes.  Indeed, we saw this situation just a couple of weeks ago when the Titans avenged their home loss to the Buffalo Bills last season with a 42-16 blowout as a 3-point home underdog this season.  The Chicago Bears are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 as a home underdog, and 20-11 ATS as a home dog with revenge.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are the last remaining undefeated NFL team (at 6-0), and will attempt to tie the 1978 team (which went 7-0 to start its season) with the best start in franchise history.  The oddsmakers aren't giving the Steelers the respect of an undefeated team, as they've installed them as a sizeable underdog at their rival, Baltimore, this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Pittsburgh.  But consider that underdogs of more than 3 points have covered just 23 of 65 games, if they were on a 4-game (or better) win streak, including 2-15 ATS vs. division rivals.  That doesn't bode well for the Black-and-Gold on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a powerful 16-4 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams if the Ravens are priced between -3.5 and -6 points at home.  Last week, Baltimore had its bye week, following its 30-28 victory over Philadelphia.  The Steelers, meanwhile, upset Tennessee on the road for its 4th straight cover.  Unfortunately, in the regular season, unrested road underdogs off 3 SU/ATS wins are a soft 58-96 ATS vs. winning foes, including 14-28 ATS vs. division rivals.  And rested home teams with an .800 (or better) win percentage, are an awesome 12-0 ATS vs. unrested foes in the regular season, when not favored by 6+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a double-digit home underdog vs. Buffalo, and got the cash in an 18-10 defeat.  That loss moved the Jets' straight-up record to 0-7.  Today, they'll take on the 6-1 (and defending Super Bowl champion) Kansas City Chiefs.  Understandably, the Chiefs are massive favorites in this game.  But don't be surprised if the Jets hang tough this afternoon.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have not done well over the years as large home favorites.  Since 1980, they've covered just 12 of 33 when laying more than two touchdowns.  Moreover, winless teams -- like New York -- are an impressive 36-13 ATS at Game 8 forward when getting more than 8 points.  And underdogs of 19+ points -- though they've gone 0-19 straight-up -- have gone 13-6 ATS.  Take New York + the big number.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Bengals.  After starting the season 5-0, the Titans finally lost last Sunday -- 27-24 -- at home to the similarly undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.  Off that loss, I look for the Titans to rebound this afternoon at Cincinnati.  Indeed, NFL teams that start the season with 5 (or more) wins have gone 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -13 points, if they suffered their first loss of the season at home in their previous game.  Additionally, the Titans should also be bolstered by facing a Bengals team which is 1-5-1 this year, and giving up 27.71 ppg.  Since 1980, road teams have gone 251-174 ATS vs. opponents off an ATS win that give up 26.22 ppg.  Take the Titans minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels + the points over Nevada.  Last week, in their season opener, the Rebels mustered just six points at San Diego State.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against UNLV tonight, especially given that Nevada scored 37 in its upset win vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  However, over the last 41 seasons, underdogs that didn't score 7+ points to open their season bounced back to cover the spread 69.2% in their second game, if it was against a conference foe.  That bodes very well for UNLV as a double-digit underdog on Saturday night.  As do the facts that Nevada's an awful 0-6 ATS as a double-digit road favorite vs. losing teams, and 11-23 ATS on the road vs. .300 (or worse) teams.  Grab the points with UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This game features the two teams who were projected to be the Big 10's two best teams at season's end.  Unfortunately for Penn State, the Indiana Hoosiers took the luster off this game when they upset the Nitts, 36-35, as a 7-point home underdog, last Saturday.  But if there was a silver lining in its upset loss, it's that Penn State significantly outyarded the Hoosiers, 488-211.  But Indiana won the turnover battle and, ultimately, the game.  In contrast, the Buckeyes blew out Nebraska, 52-17, even though their game vs. the Nebraska Cornhuskers was closely played in the stats.  Nebraska was only outgained by 121 yards (491-370), yet one wouldn't know that by the final score.  Not surprisingly, the 'Huskers lost the turnover battle to the Buckeyes.  The Nittany Lions were 11-2 (.846) last season, with one of their two losses to these Buckeyes, 28-17, in Columbus.  Rest assured, Penn State will badly want to avenge that defeat on Saturday night.  And revenge-minded teams have cashed 63% (46-27-4 ATS) at home or on neutral fields over the past 41 years if they were not favored by more than 3 points, and owned a W/L percentage of .846 (or better) the previous season.  Even better:  if our revenger came into the game with a losing record, and its opponent was off a win, then our 46-27 stat zooms to a perfect 9-0-1 ATS.  Take Penn State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on Air Force + the points over Boise State.  The Falcons are 1-1 on the season, after losing 17-6 on the road last week.  But Air Force is back home for this game, and has been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  The Falcons were also a home underdog to start the season, and we played on them in that game vs. Navy.  Air Force rewarded us with a 40-7 blowout win, and that moved the Falcons' record as a home underdog to 8-0-1 ATS their last nine!  I look for another ATS win by Air Force as a home underdog, as it falls into a 72-30 ATS system of mine that plays on certain home underdogs off upset losses.  Take the double digits with the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The #1-ranked Tigers have scored 42, 73 and 47 points in their last three games.  And they'll now face a 4-2 Boston College squad which has surrendered 30, 40 and 27 points in its last three games, and gives up 25 ppg on the season.  Needless to say, Clemson is going to light up the scoreboard on Saturday.  Indeed, winning teams (like Boston College) have gone 51-94 ATS if they give up at least 20.5 ppg, and are installed as an underdog of 22+ points.  That bodes well for Clemson on Saturday.  As does the fact that NCAA home teams that average 45 ppg on offense have cashed 69.6% over the past 35 seasons vs. foes that are off a SU/ATS win that surrender at least 25 ppg, if our home team wasn't favored by more than 33 points.   Boston College has lost its last six games ATS following an ACC Conference win, while Clemson is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games vs. ACC rivals that won SU/ATS their previous games.  Take Clemson minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Purdue.  The Illini were roasted in their season opener last week at Wisconsin.  The Badgers were favored by 20.5 points, and blew out Illinois by 38, 45-7.  The good news for Illinois is that it's back home in Champaign this Saturday afternoon.  And it will also be playing a team which is much closer to its talent level.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on teams in their home opener off a game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 11 points, if they're playing a conference foe, and the game is competitively-priced with a line of less than 11 points.  Over the last 35 seasons, our home team has covered 65.6% of the time.  We saw this situation a few weeks ago when Troy State was blown out 48-7 by BYU, as a 14-point road underdog.  But then it returned home for its home opener, and blew out its Sun Belt Conference rival, Texas State, 37-7, as a 7-point favorite.  Last week, Purdue upset Iowa, 24-20, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, if Illinois failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have only covered 16% over the last 41 seasons as a road favorite off an upset win.  Take Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over Coastal Carolina.  After a 2-game road trip, the Panthers are back home in Atlanta to take on the 5-0 (and 20th-ranked) Chanticleers.  The last time the Panthers were on this field, they blew out East Carolina, 49-29, as a 1.5-point home underdog.  And that game continued a trend which has seen the Panthers go 8-3 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 6 points or less.  Meanwhile, the Chanticleers are a wallet-busting 2-5 ATS as a conference favorite.  And they fall into 18-55 and 7-27 ATS systems of mine that go against certain undefeated teams off ATS wins.  Take Georgia State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, we had a play on Wake Forest as a double-digit home underdog vs. Virginia Tech, and were rewarded with an upset victory.  But now, the tables are turned and Wake Forest is laying double-digits on the road.  Not surprisingly, teams that change point spread roles like this often don't find success.  Indeed, Wake Forest's only ATS loss this season came when it was a road favorite.  It's also covered just 8 of its last 26 as a road favorite, including 0 of its last 6 attempts.  And over the last 38 years, double-digit NCAA road favorites have cashed just 36.1% after winning outright as a double-digit underdog.  Take the Orange + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats have ripped off four straight wins and covers, including a 41-point blowout win over rival Kansas last Saturday.  But they'll be matched up against a West Virginia team looking to bounce back off its upset loss at Texas Tech a week ago.  The Mountaineers were favored by 2.5 in that game at Lubbock, but lost, 34-27.  The good news for WVU is that it's back home in Morgantown, where it's 6-2-1 ATS its last nine off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  Big 12 teams are a horrid 47-75 ATS as underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back point spread victories.  And West Virginia also falls into a 63-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset road losses.  Lay the points with the Mountaineers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys over Hawaii.  The Cowboys were favored last week in their season opener, but lost outright, 37-34, as a 2.5-point road favorite at Nevada.  Meanwhile, Hawaii went into Fresno State, and upset the Bulldogs, 34-19, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Off those two results, we'll step in and take the Cowboys in their home opener on Friday.  Dating back 41 seasons, College Football teams have cashed 77% in their home opener off a season-opening upset loss, if they were playing an opponent off a win, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Wyoming tonight.  Even better:  over the past 25 seasons, NCAA Football teams have cashed 63% off an upset loss to start the season, if their opponent was off an upset win to start its season. Take Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Carolina.  This is the second meeting between these two NFC South division rivals.  In the first meeting, Carolina upset Atlanta, 23-16, as a 2.5-point underdog.  We'll take the Falcons in the rematch, as revenge-minded teams that were upset at home in the previous meeting earlier in the season, have gone 76-42 ATS if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Even better:  Atlanta is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes off back-to-back losses, including 7-0 ATS its last seven division games.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Chicago.  The Bears travel to the west coast off an upset win last Sunday at Carolina, and a 2nd upset win over Tampa Bay in their game before that.  Can the Bears pull an upset three weeks in a row?  It's not likely, as NFL teams playing their 2nd straight road game, are a poor 34.6% ATS off back to back upset wins, if they're playing a non-division foe, including 3-24 SU and 7-19-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +7 points.  That doesn't bode well for Chicago tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Bears are a horrid 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 7-27 ATS their last 34) on the road vs. winning teams who were not off a SU/ATS win in their previous game.  With the Rams in off an upset loss last Sunday to the 49ers, we'll lay the points with Sean McVay's men tonight.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over San Francisco.  The Pats are 2-3 on the season.  Two of the three losses were somewhat expected.  New England was a 4-point underdog at Seattle, and an 11.5-point underdog at Kansas City.  But last week's upset loss, here in Foxborough, as a 7-point favorite vs. Denver was surprising.  After all, the Patriots had won 88 of their previous 100 home games as a favorite of 7+ points.  The good news for New England this afternoon is that it's cashed 90% over the past 17 years off an upset home loss where it was favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  the Pats come into this game off back to back ATS defeats.  But they're 24-6 ATS off two ATS losses when not favored by more than 12 points!  We played on the 49ers last week as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams, and were rewarded with an upset win by San Francisco, 24-16.  Unfortunately for the Niners, they're an awful 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS off an upset home win when matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And if all this wasn't enough ammunition to play on Bill Belichick's men, New England also falls into 123-64, 120-55 and 44-22 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset defeats.  Take the Patriots minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points over Los Angeles.  The Jaguars come into this game off 5 straight losses (and 4 straight ATS losses), so the knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Chargers (notwithstanding the fact that L.A. has won just 1 game itself).  However, consider that NFL underdogs (or PK) have cashed 63.1% since 1980 in non-division games when they've lost their last five games, and were also on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 13-0-1 ATS over the last 3 years.  That bodes well for the underdog Jaguars on Sunday.  As does the fact that .300 (or worse) teams have covered just 11 of 38 (including 0 for their last 7) when laying more than 7 points, at Game 4 forward.  Take Jacksonville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Redskins.  Last week, the Cowboys played one of the worst games by any team in the league this season.  They were favored against Arizona on Monday Night Football, but were blown out, 38-10.  The result is that the opening number for this game (Dallas -3) is history, and the number is closer to PK'em.  I believe this was an over-reaction, and the value squarely lies on the Cowboys.  The Cowboys fall into 88-56, 153-69, 221-133 and 71-40 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 88-56 ATS angle.  That plays on road teams in division games off exactly 1 upset loss, if they were defeated by double-digits in that upset.  Even better:  Washington is a horrible 32-54-1 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Washington wasn't getting more than 3 points, including 14-32 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  Take Dallas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers will be the 2nd undefeated team that the Titans have welcomed to Nashville over the past 12 days.  Back on October 13, the Titans trounced the then-undefeated Bills, 42-16.  Last week, the Titans also scored 42 points, so we won't step in front of this freight train here, at home.  Indeed, over the last 18 years, teams off back to back 40-point outings have cashed 84% when not favored by 5+ points, if their opponent was off a SU win.  And Tennessee is 20-9 ATS off back to back 30-point games.  Take the Titans.  Finally, the Steelers are an awful 21-44 ATS when they owned a winning record, and were playing a non-division foe on the road, but not getting more than 2 points.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers looked like gangbusters through their first four games.  But they laid an egg last week at Tampa Bay, and lost 38-10.  Now, they'll try to rebound at Houston, which owns just one win on the season.  Last week, the Texans lost a brutal game in overtime at Tennessee, 42-36.  We'll fade Green Bay as, road teams have covered just 33% over the last 41 seasons after being upset on the road by 27+ points.  Take Houston.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Buffalo.  It goes without saying that double-digit home underdogs are bad teams.  Actually, really, really bad teams.  But it's also true that double-digit underdogs have been one of the more reliable point spread plays in modern NFL history.  Dating back to 1980, they've gone 109-89-2 (55% ATS).  Last week, we saw the Eagles (+10.5) almost upset the Baltimore Ravens.  And earlier this month, the Redskins covered as a 14.5-point home underdog -- also against Baltimore.  This will be the 3rd double-digit home dog of 2020, and we'll take the points with the pitiful Jets, who are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS on the season.  But winless ATS teams, at Game 7 forward, have covered 64% since 1980 when installed as an underdog.  Take New York + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, the Panthers dropped their 3rd straight contest (and 2nd straight on the road), 31-19, at Miami.  But they'll be back home at Heinz Field to welcome the Fighting Irish to the Steel City.  This will be Notre Dame's first road game after starting the season with four straight home games.  And that doesn't bode well for Brian Kelly's men, as road favorites off 3+ home games, have covered just 27.9% over the past 26 years, if they were off a win, and playing a conference foe off a loss, if that foe was off back to back road games.  It's true that the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS their last five games.  But this ATS losing streak has created point spread value.  And Pitt falls into a 112-70 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, the Panthers fall into an 84-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  And they're 14-1-1 ATS off back to back losses when matched up against winning teams.  Take Pitt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Alabama.  Last week, the Crimson Tide won the most-anticipated game of the season, with a 41-24 victory over Georgia.  But after winning that "Battle of Unbeatens," we will look for a letdown, and fade the Tide today.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, at Game 5 forward, after a team won a competitively-priced match-up (with a point spread less than 10) of undefeated teams, such teams have cashed just 35.1% as road favorites vs. .500 (or better foes).  Even worse, if its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our 35.1% stat moves to 15.7% ATS.  With Tennessee off a blowout loss last week, we'll grab the points with the home underdog.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Navy.  The Middies won and covered for the 2nd straight game last weekend when they went into East Carolina to defeat the Pirates, 27-23, as a 3-point road favorite.  The Cougars dropped their game last week, as they fell at home, 43-26, as a 3-point home underdog to BYU (which defeated Navy, 55-3, earlier this season).  Houston plays this game with revenge from a 15-point defeat at home last season to the Midshipmen.  The good news for Dana Holgorsen's men is that they're 20-11-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 16 points (or PK).  And they're 50-28-1 ATS, overall, when playing with revenge.  Navy also falls into negative 77-126 and 64-113 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams off conference wins.  Finally, the Midshipmen are an awful 3-27 SU and 8-21-1 ATS as home underdogs of more than 7 points, and 11-27 ATS at home off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Virginia Tech.  We played on the Hokies last weekend, and were rewarded with a 40-14 blowout win over Boston College.  The Hokies are now 2-0 ATS at home, but 0-2 ATS away from Blacksburg.  That doesn't bode well for them on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem.  After all, the Demon Deacons are 3-0 ATS at home this season (and 0-1 ATS on the road).  Wake Forest has also been piling up the points, as it's scored 42, 66, and 40 in its last three games.  Faithful followers know I love to play on home underdogs that can score, and especially if they're good teams.  And Wake certainly fits the bill.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, home underdogs off back-to-back wins, that average at least 40 points on offense, have covered 65% when getting more than 6 points.  Grab the points with the Demon Deacons.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Iowa State.  The Cowboys went into Lawrence three weeks ago and demolished Kansas, 47-7 to move to 3-0 on the season.  Last week, their scheduled game was scrapped due to Baylor's rash of positive COVID-19 tests, so they've had a lot of time to rest and prepare for this game.  Okie State's defense has been solid, as it's yet to surrender 14 points in a game.  And the Cowboys also fall into 109-45, 275-189 and 133-96 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 133-96 ATS angle.  What we want to do is play on any rested home team in conference games off a double-digit conference road win.  That bodes well for the Cowboys in Stillwater, on Saturday.  As does the fact that they're 22-6 ATS after scoring 47+ points, if they weren't favored by more than 3 points in their current game.  Take the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners finally covered the point spread in a Big 12 Conference game.  But it took an overtime session to put them over the top, 53-45, as a 3-point favorite vs. Texas.  The Sooners have covered just five of their last 18 conference games, including one of seven on an opponent's home field.  That doesn't bode well for Lincoln Riley's troops on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that TCU has covered 14 of 22 as an underdog here in Fort Worth, including a perfect 5-0 if the Horned Frogs owned a losing record.  The Horned Frogs had last week off following their upset home loss to Kansas State, as an 11-point favorite.  And they're 17-4 ATS at home when playing with rest, including 7-0 ATS off a loss.  Finally, over the past 41 seasons, rested home underdogs have cashed 71% off a straight-up loss as a favorite of 9 (or more) points.  Take TCU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cowboys are 2-3 this season, but have yet to cover the point spread in any of their five games.  And, to make matters worse, they'll be without QB Dak Prescott for the rest of the season after he sustained a severe ankle injury in last week's 37-34 win over the NY Giants.  But if there's good news for Mike McCarthy's team, it's that they have a veteran backup QB in Andy Dalton.  And they play in the worst division in football, so they still should make the Playoffs -- even if they end up with a losing record.  Tonight, they'll welcome the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals to AT&T Stadium.  But Arizona's 3-2 record has largely come against the dregs of the league, as two of its three wins were against the 1-4 Washington Football Team and the 0-5 NY Jets.  We'll take Dallas as NFL teams on 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have gone 98-49 ATS against non-division foes, provided our team wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Even better:  this will be Arizona's 3rd straight road game, while Dallas hasn't had to travel in over 3 weeks, as this will be the Cowboys' 3rd straight home game.  Since 1980, NFL teams playing their 3rd straight on the road have covered just 9 of 30 games vs. foes playing their 3rd straight at home!  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  Last Tuesday, we played against Josh Allen & Co., and were rewarded with a blowout win by underdog Tennessee, 42-16.  But off that blowout loss -- a game Buffalo failed to cover by 29 points -- we'll take the Bills to bounce back on Monday.  Indeed, NFL teams have gone 98-52-5 ATS in non-division games after failing to cover the point spread by more than 24 points, provided they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Buffy this evening.  As does the fact that the Bills are 29-15 ATS at home off a straight-up loss, when the Bills owned a winning record.  Finally, defending Super Bowl champs are 0-8 ATS as road favorites of -4 (or more) points vs. winning opponents, if their opponent failed to cover the spread by 7+ points in its previous game.  Take the Bills + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, the Niners were embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins, 43-17, as an 8-point favorite.  It's not often that an NFL team -- much less, a defending Conference champion -- fails to cover the point spread by 34 points.  But that's exactly what San Francisco did last week.  We'll look for San Francisco to bounce back on Sunday night, as .350 (or better) home underdogs have covered 62% since 1980 off an upset loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Niners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Green Bay Packers.  The Bucs lost their last game as a road favorite at Chicago, and will look to bounce back against the undefeated Packers.  We'll take Tom Brady & Co. as, Brady's teams have gone 12-0 ATS as an underdog (or PK) off a loss.  Also, over the last 41 years, winning teams have covered 64% as home underdogs off an upset loss as a road favorite the previous week.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  On the surface, we have two teams going in opposite directions.  The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS, and have lost each of their games by 9+ points.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins come into this game off an impressive 43-17 upset of San Francisco, and have covered three of their last four games.  However, Miami was an underdog in each of its five games this year, and now it's laying more than a touchdown.  That doesn't bode well for Miami, as it's covered just 36 of 105 at home when not getting more than 3 points!  And when laying more than 5 points, Miami's covered just 2 of its last 24 at home!  Even better:  winless teams, off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, have covered 60% over the last 41 years as road underdogs of more than 8 points.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Baltimore.  The Eagles return home on Sunday after back-to-back road games vs. the 49ers and Steelers.  Philly will welcome the Ravens, who blew out Cincy last week, 27-3.  Baltimore's been installed as a huge road favorite, but the number is inflated, per my models.  One of the things I love to do is play on big home underdogs off back to back road games, and especially if they're playing an opponent off a home game, provided that opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  Since 1980, our big home dogs (of more than 9 points) have covered 86.2% of the time (25-4 ATS).  That bodes well for Philadelphia on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Ravens have covered just nine of their last 33 road games off a win by more than 18 points.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Texans kicked off the Romeo Crennel era with an easy 16-point win, 30-14, over Jacksonville.  They'll try to make it two-division-wins-in-a-row on Sunday when they visit Nashville to take on the Titans.  Houston will have a scheduling advantage for this game, as Tennessee was forced to play this past Tuesday, so the Titans will be playing with two days less rest.  Even worse for Tennessee:  it's a nightmarish 8-38 ATS at home when favored by more than three points vs. an opponent off a SU win, including 0-6 ATS if the Titans were off an upset win.  And it's 5-21 ATS off an upset win, when it wasn't getting 4+ points in its current game.  Finally, Tennessee has covered just seven of its last 23 vs. Houston, including 1-7 ATS when the Texans were playing with revenge.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over Chicago.  The Bears upset Tom Brady and the Bucs, 20-19, as a 3.5-point home underdog 10 days ago, and are 4-1 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are a surprising 3-2 on the heels of a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  And all three wins were of the upset variety.  This will be the first time this season that Carolina wasn't an underdog.  Oftentimes, I will avoid playing on such teams that are unaccustomed to laying points.  But I will make an exception here, given that it's a short number.  Additionally, .666 (or better) NFL teams (like Chicago) have cashed just 39% over the past 41 years as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) home underdog.  Finally, the Bears are a horrible 2-12 ATS off an upset win, including 0-7 ATS on the road.  In contrast, the Panthers are 18-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 9-0 ATS their last nine.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Indianapolis.  The Bengals have won just once, but have been extremely competitive this season, as they've lost just one of their five games by more than five points.  But that was last week's 27-3 defeat at Baltimore, which ranks among the four best teams in the NFL.  This week, the Bengals will take on the Colts who have sprinted out to a 3-2 record.  But two of Indianapolis' three wins were against 1-4 Minnesota (28-11) and 0-5 New York Jets (36-7).  So, Indianapolis' scoring margin of +7.6 should be taken with a grain (or, maybe, boulder) of salt.  I expect the Bengals to once again be competitive, as they fall into several of my very best systems that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Those angles have records of 113-36, 133-57 and 148-68 ATS.  Even better:  NFL road teams that scored 3 or less points the previous week have gone 80-42-3 ATS vs. .650 (or worse) foes, if our road team wasn't getting 10+ points!  And the Bengals are 24-7 ATS on the road as an underdog vs. .650 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Bengals + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Minnesota.  The Falcons are winless on the season, and will have a new coach (Raheem Morris) following the dismissal of Dan Quinn.  They hope to do what the previously-winless Houston Texans did last week following the firing of Bill O'Brien, and win their first game for their new head coach.  Atlanta will be in Minnesota to take on the equally-disappointing (1-4) Minnesota Vikings.  And, when it comes to betting on bad NFL teams, I would much rather take points than lay points with such clubs.  Indeed, NFL home favorites with a .200 (or worse) win percentage (at Game 4 forward), have covered just 110 of 245 games, including a soft 61-90 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Additionally, Atlanta falls into 158-76 and 110-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain bad teams.  Take the Falcons + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Boston College.  After blowing out the NC State Wolfpack, 45-24, in Blacksburg to open the 2020 season, the Hokies had back-to-back point spread setbacks on the road, including a 56-45 loss at North Carolina last week.  But Justin Fuente's men are at home tonight, so that bodes well for them to rebound with a win and cover.  And they'll no doubt be intent on avenging the last two seasons' losses to the Eagles.  Also in the Hokies' favor:  they're starting to get back many players who missed their earlier games due to the coronavirus.  One such player is QB Hendon Hooker, who will make his first start of the season tonight (after seeing action in the 2nd half last week in Chapel Hill).  The Hokies are 61-33-1 ATS against opponents off a win, if the Hokies had a losing point spread record. And they're also 12-3 ATS off a loss, if they were playing with double revenge.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over North Carolina.  Last Saturday, the Seminoles lost their 3rd straight game to a Bowl subdivision team.  But if there was a silver lining, it was that Florida State covered the point spread for the first time this season.  A key personnel change last week was the insertion of redshirt sophomore QB Jordan Travis into the starting lineup.  The Louisville transfer played well, and will be back under center to start this ACC Conference game.  Tonight, they'll welcome the #5-ranked Tar Heels to Tallahassee.  And this is brand new territory for North Carolina as none of its players were alive the last time it was ranked among the Top 5.  It played just one other road game this season, and it was a struggle, as the Heels won by just four points, 26-22, as a 14.5-point road favorite at Boston College.  North Carolina is a money-burning 17-32-1 ATS on the conference road off a SU/ATS win, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Florida St. is 40-20 ATS off a road defeat.  The Seminoles also fall into 100-35 and 82-22 ATS systems of mine.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A/M.  The Aggies stunned the Florida Gators in College Station last Saturday when they won outright, 41-38, as a 5.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade Jimbo Fisher's men on the SEC road this Saturday.  They'll be in Starkville to take on the Bulldogs, who will play with revenge from a 49-30 defeat last season to the Aggies.  Last week, Mississippi State lost to Kentucky, 24-2, as a 3-point underdog.  Turnovers were once again the culprit, as Miss State lost the ball six times to Kentucky.  And, for the season, Miss State has committed 14 turnovers to its opponents' five.  The number one goal, then, for Mike Leach's troops on Saturday will be to "hold onto the damn ball."  Texas A/M is a poor 37-55-1 ATS on the road off a home win, while revenge-minded home underdogs are a super 102-62-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset home win.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  To say that the Tigers have "revenge" would be a massive understatement.  Indeed, the Tigers have lost the last 13 meetings to UCF, including regular and post-season meetings in both 2017 and 2018.  After not playing at all last season, they've been champing at the bit to avenge those losses, and will finally get the chance this afternoon.  We will fade the favored Knights, who come into this game off a bad upset loss to Tulsa.  Central Florida was favored by 20.5 points in that game, but fell by eight, 34-26.  Unfortunately for UCF, College Football teams off an upset loss where they were favored by 18+ points, have rebounded to cover just 48 of 132 games when they were favored by 25 points or less.  Like the Knights, the Tigers also come into this game off a loss, 30-27, as a 1.5-point road underdog at SMU.  The good news, though, for Memphis is that it's 38-21 ATS off a loss, if it wasn't an underdog of 3+ points in that defeat.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars were big underdogs in each of their first three games, and went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.  But here, South Alabama will be a favorite for the first time this season.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars have been horrid as a favorite over the years.  Indeed, South Alabama is 1-12-1 ATS its last 14 when laying 2 or more points (and 3-17-1 ATS when not getting more than 5 points).  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Sun Belt favorites of 6 or less points are an awful 71-109-2 ATS at home, or on neutral fields.  Finally, the Bobcats fall into 99-34, 160-82 and 397-285 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in conference games that lost SU the previous week.  Take Texas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over SMU.  We played on the Mustangs in their last game, and were rewarded with a 30-27 victory against the Memphis Tigers.  But that was a massive emotional game for SMU, as they were at home, and playing with revenge from six straight defeats to the Tigers.  Here, the shoe is on the other foot, as it's Tulane which is at home, and playing with revenge from five straight losses to SMU.  The Mustangs are a horrid 8-24 ATS their last 32 road conference games after a home conference win, including 0-10 ATS if SMU owned a win percentage of .666 (or better).  And Tulane falls into a 36-4 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home (or neutral-sited) underdogs off a loss against opponents off a win.  Take Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers come into tonight's Sun Belt Conference game off a 52-23 upset win over Arkansas St.  But off that upset win, we will fade Coastal Carolina tonight, as Sun Belt teams are an awful 8-30 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points in conference games, if they're off an upset win, and their opponent is also off a straight-up win.  Even worse, the Chanticleers fall into negative 27-77 and 111-200 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins.  Finally, Coastal Carolina has covered just 30.7% of the time as an underdog of more than 7 points, while the Cajuns are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS their last nine when priced from -6 to -14 points.  Take Lafayette.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Titans had 0 new infections today, so the NFL has given the green light for this rare Tuesday night game.  Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-0 record after not playing last week due to the outbreak of infections.  It will be missing several key players, including WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, so I expect a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry tonight.  Because of its hampered roster, the undefeated Titans have been installed as a home underdog vs. the similarly-unbeated Bills.  We'll grab the points with Tennessee, as rested home underdogs, with a .636 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 75 percent over the past 25 years.  Even better:  Tennessee is playing with revenge from a loss to the Bills last season.  And revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 70% over the last 41 seasons vs. non-division foes, if our home dog had a winning record both in the previous and current seasons.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Miami.  After covering the point spread in Game 1, the Lakers have failed to cover the spread in each of the four next games.  On Sunday, the Lakers will attempt (for the 2nd time) to win their 17th NBA championship.  In Game 5, Anthony Davis re-aggravated a heel injury, but he swears he will be fine for Game 6.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NBA is play on .710 (or better) teams off an upset playoff loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite, provided they don't trail in a 7-game series.  Since 1990, these teams have rebounded to cash 61% ATS.  Even better:  the Lakers are a solid 16-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points.  Meanwhile, LeBron James' teams are 22-11 ATS in the Playoffs as a favorite following a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  And Miami's 4-9 ATS in the Playoffs when playing on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak.  Lay the points in Game 6 with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts come into Cleveland off three straight wins and covers, on the heels of a staunch defense which has allowed just 29 points combined in those three games.  But those three victories included home games against the 0-4 Jets and 1-3 Vikings.  This will be a much more difficult test for the Colts, given that Cleveland has scored 35, 34 and 49 points in its last three outings.  We'll play against the Colts, as unrested NFL road teams off 3 straight covers are a dreadful 0-13-1 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes off a SU/ATS win.  And NFL home teams have cashed 78% since 1980 after scoring 80+ points in their two previous games, provided that they are not laying more than four points.  And home teams have also cashed 64.8% since 2001 after scoring more than 48 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Miami.  We played against the 49ers last Sunday, and cashed the Philadelphia Eagles as our Sunday Night Football Game of the Month.  The Niners were 8-point favorites in that game, but lost, 25-20.  If there was a silver lining for the 49ers, it's that they outgained the Eagles in yardage, 417 to 267.  But three turnovers by 2nd-string QB, Nick Mullens, doomed them.  San Francisco, though, will get its #1 QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, back for this game (he missed last week with an ankle injury).  The Niners are a fantastic 60-23 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in that defeat, including 29-5 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat.  San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS its last 11 vs. the Dolphins, including 4-0 ATS when favored by 3+ points.  Take the 49ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals come into this game off back to back upset losses, after starting the season with wins over the 49ers and Redskins.  They'll look to get back on the winning track vs. the winless NY Jets.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses, have cashed just 18 of 68 road games when not getting more than 2 points.  Yikes!  The Flyboys are 26-9 ATS at home off a home loss, including 11-1 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +10 points.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers.  Atlanta's 0-4 on the season, with losses to Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and Green Bay (all good teams), while Carolina is 2-2 on the season, but has played the much easier schedule, with games vs. Las Vegas (L), Tampa Bay (L), LA Chargers (W) and Arizona (W).  We'll take the Falcons to break into the win column, as winless teams, with an 0-4 (or worse) record, have cashed 65% over the last 29 years when not getting 3+ points against foes off a straight-up win.  Additionally, teams (like Carolina) off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 56 of 140 games when matched up against opponents off back-to-back losses.  Take the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Kentucky.  The Bulldogs opened their season with an impressive 44-34 upset win (as a 14.5-point underdog) at LSU -- a game in which QB K.J. Costello threw for an SEC-record 623 yards (and five touchdowns).  Understandably, the Bulldogs suffered a letdown last week when they fell at home to Arkansas, as a 16.5-point favorite.  But off that upset defeat, we'll grab the points with Miss State against the Wildcats, who are 0-2 SU/ATS this season.  Kentucky's never been reliable as a home favorite vs. SEC rivals, as they've covered just 13 of 35.  And Mississippi State also falls into a 99-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses, if they were favored by 13+ points in that upset defeat.  Finally, SEC Conference teams have gone 122-85 ATS away from home off an upset loss.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Marshall.  Three weeks ago, we played on Marshall as a home underdog vs. Appalachian State, and were rewarded with a 17-7 upset victory.  The Thundering Herd didn't play either of the last two weekends, but are back in action tonight, at Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finally got into the win column last Saturday with a three-point win at Middle Tennessee, though they failed to cover the 7-point spread.  For the season, WKU is 0-3 ATS.  But we'll take the points with the Hilltoppers tonight, as home underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss have covered the spread 83% of the time over the last 41 years vs. undefeated conference foes off an upset win.  Moreover, Marshall is 22-38 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-6 ATS off an upset win.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over North Carolina State.  Last week, Virginia fell to #1-ranked Clemson, 41-23, while the Wolfpack upset then-No. 24-ranked-Pittsburgh, 30-29, as a 14-point underdog.  They'll now look to avoid a letdown.  But they'll be playing their 3rd straight road game.  And the Cavaliers have not lost at home in their last nine at Charlottesville.  We'll play against the Wolfpack, as NCAA teams off upset wins as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 30.7% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  when playing without rest, NC State has covered just six of its last 37 on the road in competitively-priced games with a point spread less than 8 points, including 0 for its last 9.  Finally, the Cavs fall into 81-21 and 99-34 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off double-digit road losses.  Lay the points with UVa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 9 pm, in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  We stayed away from Game 4, and it went right down to the wire, with Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover the 7.5-point spread for Miami.  We'll step in and take the points in this "do-or-die" game for Miami, as it falls into a 59-33 ATS NBA system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any .576 (or better) team in the Playoffs if they were off a loss, and an underdog of +7 (or more) points.  Since 1990, these teams have gone 77-49-2, 61.1% ATS, including 10-4 ATS in the NBA Finals.  Even better:  Erik Spoelstra's men are 32-11-1 ATS off a loss, including 5-0 ATS when getting 6 or more points.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over San Francisco.  Both of these teams are ravaged by injuries, with the latest being 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who sustained an ankle injury.  The 49ers, though, have survived better than the Eagles, as the 49ers are 2-1, while Philly is 0-2-1 after tying the Bengals last Sunday.  Curiously, the Eagles have been favored by 5.5, 2 and 5.5 points in their first three, but have yet to break through with a win.  Still, we will take Philly on this Sunday night, as we note that winless NFL teams are 100-61-4 ATS if they were not an underdog in their previous game.  Even better:  the Eagles are 114-79 ATS their last 193 as a road underdog, while the 49ers have gone 0-13-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. a foe not off a win.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers have won the first two games by double-digits to take a commanding 2-games-to-none series lead.  Since no NBA team has ever successfully come back from a 3-0 series deficit, tonight's game is a "virtual must-win" for Miami.  We'll grab the points with the Heat, as .605 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 60% in the Playoffs over the last 31 years off back to back double-digit defeats.  Even better:  the Heat are an awesome 48-24-2 ATS off back to back losses, including 34-8 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Bears have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, notwithstanding the fact that they're 3-0 on the season.  And one of the things I love to do is play on really good teams (that are at least 3 games over .500) as home underdogs (or PK) vs. .500 or better opponents that are off a win.  Since 1980, our strong home pups are 100-69 ATS.  Even better, the Bears are a super 45-25 ATS as home underdog of +3 or more points, while Indy is an awful 16-29-4 ATS when laying 3+ on the road.  Take Nick Foles & Co. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, we played against the Rams, and took Buffalo as a small home favorite.  The Bills rewarded us with a last-second win, 35-32, which lowered L.A.'s record to 2-1 this season.  Los Angeles will now take on the 0-3 Giants, and the biggest difference between the two teams is on the offensive side of the ball.  LA is averaging 29.67 ppg, while New York has only scored 38 points this season, for a 12.67 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the offensively-challenged Giants.  But consider that NFL underdogs of +8 (or more) points have cashed 61.4% if they average 17 ppg less than their opponent.  And 0-3 teams have gone 25-10 ATS on the road vs. foes off a SU loss.  Finally, New York's 78-47-3 ATS on the road vs. NFC Conference foes, including 11-1 ATS their last 12.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles + the points over North Texas.  The Eagles were thrashed last week, 66-24, by the Tulane Green Wave, as a 3.5-point underdog.  And that was the 3rd straight point spread loss by Southern Miss to start the season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Southern Miss after last week's debacle, where they failed to cover the spread by 38.5 points.  But consider that teams that are winless ATS, at Game 3 forward, that failed to cover the spread by 35+ points in their previous game, have cashed 60% ATS over the last 41 years.  That bodes well for the Golden Eagles tonight.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs are 63-31-4 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when matched up against a conference foe off a loss.  Moreover, North Texas is a miserable 16-34 ATS in conference games when the pointspread was between +6.5 and -6.5 points.  Finally, the Mean Green fall into negative 285-395 and 90-196 ATS systems of mine that go against certain home favorites off straight-up losses.  Take the Golden Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Air Force + the points over Navy.  We played on the Midshipmen in their last game, a 27-24 upset win over Tulane (after trailing 24-0 at halftime).  Now, Navy will travel to Fort Collins to take on its military rival, who will be playing its first game of the season today.  Like many rivalries, this has been an underdog-oriented series.  Since 1992, the underdog has gone 19-8 ATS, including 6-1 ATS at home.  Additionally, the Falcons are 18-8-1 ATS their last 27 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS at home.  And they're 88-63-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Finally, Navy has covered just 14 of 41 off an upset win when playing a non-conference foe, including 4-15 ATS its last 19 as a favorite.  Take Air Force + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Blue Devils have started this season 0-3 -- its worst start in the 13-year tenure of coach David Cutcliffe -- with three double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Boston College and Virginia.  But Cutcliffe believes his team is "close" to breaking through with a win, as he's been heartened by how his team has looked in practice.  The Blue Devils have been at their best when dressed up as an underdog, as they're 30-15-1 ATS their last 46, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +14.5 points.  Take Duke.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  The Aggies will look to snap their 7-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide when these two SEC Conference rivals meet in Tuscaloosa, on Saturday afternoon.  In Texas A/M's first game, it edged Vanderbilt, 17-12, as a 31.5-point favorite, while Alabama comes into this game off a 38-19 win at Missouri, as a 28.5-point favorite.  We'll take the Aggies as a double-digit underdog, as SEC Conference teams have gone 145-81 ATS in the regular season against .500 (or better) SEC Conference rivals, if our 'play-on' team was off a SU win, but an ATS loss.  Additionally, the Aggies fall into 52-21, 41-14 and 32-6 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis.  The Mustangs are 3-0, and have been scoring a lot of points this season.  They tallied 50 last week vs. SF Austin, and 65 the previous week at North Texas.  For the season, they're averaging 48.67 ppg.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on NCAA teams that can score.  And NCAA home underdogs off back to back games where they scored 48+ points, have cashed 69.2% since 1980, including 76.1% when playing with revenge.  With SMU, indeed, playing with revenge from a 54-48 loss to Memphis last year, our 76.1% tightener is satisfied.  Take SMU.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over the TCU Horned Frogs.  Texas lost last season, 37-21, to TCU, so it will be out for revenge this afternoon, in Austin.  The Longhorns' offense has been quite impressive this season, as it's averaging 61 ppg, on 582.5 ypg of total offense.  One of the things I like to do is play on revenge-minded teams that can score.  Since 1980, NCAA teams that average 55 ppg have cashed 78.7% when favored, and playing with revenge.  Even better:  TCU is a horrible 16-42-1 ATS vs. .600 (or better) revenge-minded opponents.  Lay the points with the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This NBA Finals match-up had the potential to be a fascinating series.  Unfortunately, the Heat sustained injuries in Game 1, and now will be hard-pressed to upset the Lakers.  But I love Miami + the points in this Game 2, as the adjusted point spread has more-than-compensated for the concomitant loss of talent.  And one of the things I love to do when betting NBA playoffs is to take a team in Game 2 when it's getting significantly more (or laying significantly less) points in Game 2 than it did in Game 1.  Sometimes this happens due to injuries (like in this game), while other times, the line gets adjusted off an unexpected result in Game 1.  But what I've found is that it generally pays (87% since 1990) to play on the team getting a better number in Game 2 than in Game 1.  Likewise, teams off a loss in Game 1 have gone 48-31 ATS in Game 2 when they were an underdog of more than nine points.  This will be a competitive game tonight.  Take Miami + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Both of these teams enter today's game with identical 2-0 records.  But the Cougars have played the much more difficult schedule.  BYU opened its season with a 55-3 blowout of Navy.  And then it followed that up with a 48-7 trouncing of Troy State last week.  We played on BYU in last Saturday's victory, and we'll come right back with it tonight, as it's outscored its opponents by 46.5 points per game.  And that bodes well for it here, as teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 44+ points per game have covered 63% since 1980 when they were at home or on a neutral field.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 0-11 ATS when priced between +23 and +31.5 against non-conference foes.  Take Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver.  In this match-up of winless teams, we'll take the homestanding New York Jets minus the points.  It's true that the Jets are 0-3 ATS, while Denver is 2-1 ATS.  But winless SU/ATS teams have cashed 65% over the last 40 years, at Game 3 forward, if they were matched up against a losing team with a .500 (or better) ATS record.  And on Thursday Night Football, teams that have yet to win a game have cashed 70% at home (and 81% if they weren't favored by more than 5 points).  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 0-2 (so, what else is new?) to start the year -- the 7th time in 15 seasons they've started 0-2.  But they've been able to move the ball, as they've scored 21+ points in both games (vs. Chicago and Green Bay).  And 0-2 SU/ATS teams have cashed 60% in Week 3 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Detroit is 37-11 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 12 points, while Arizona is 8-18 ATS at home vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .140.  Finally, since 1980, road teams off back to back SU/ATS division losses have cashed 60% vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Last week, the Patriots went into a difficult Seattle venue, and lost to the Seahawks, 35-30, as a road underdog.  Meanwhile, the Raiders christened their new Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 comeback win over New Orleans.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will have to face an ornery Patriots team which will not want to fall to 1-2.  And New England is an awesome 10-0 SU and ATS off a straight-up loss when playing an .833 (or better) opponent off a win.  Finally, NFL road underdogs off back to back wins, in which they tallied more than 30 points, have cashed just 31.4% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Patriots.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams.  This line opened at -3, and has come way down -- to the point where I want to now step in and take the home team.  I had no interest in laying 3 points, but the value now squarely rests on the Bills.  Indeed, Buffalo falls into a great system of mine which is 74-33 ATS since 1981 which plays on certain winning teams not laying more than 1 points.  Yes, Buffalo failed to cover the spread last week in its win over the Dolphins.  But it still won, and is 2-0 on the season.  And the Bills also are 50-22 ATS at home off a point spread loss, if they're playing a foe off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0, following their upset win last week vs. Philly.  Unfortunately, winning teams are a soft 256-332 ATS on the road off upset wins, provided they weren't laying more than six points.  Take the Bills at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Troy.  Both of these teams come into tonight's affair off blowout wins on the road.  The Trojans trounced Middle Tennessee St. in Murfreesboro, 47-14, while the Cougars annihilated Navy, 55-3, in Annapolis.  One difference, though, between the teams.  BYU has had the last 19 days off, while Troy played last Saturday.  We'll lay the points with the Cougars, as rested NCAA home favorites, of less than 40 points, are 128-76 ATS in non-conference home games, if they own a win percentage greater than .750.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Miami-Fla.  Miami defeated Louisville, 47-34, last Saturday.  But it gave up over 500 yards to Louisville, which outgained Miami, 506 to 485.  The Hurricanes, though, benefited from three Louisvlle turnovers, and that was the Cardinals' undoing.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles had last week off to lick their wounds following a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12.  There's no doubt that Florida State will be enormously motivated to bounce back today, especially given that it's playing with revenge from a 17-point defeat to these Hurricanes last season.  We'll grab the double-digit with Florida State, as rested, revenge-minded teams, off a season-opening loss, have cashed 66% since 1980 vs. unrested foes.  Even better:  the underdog in this rivalry has gone 26-12-1 ATS over the last 40 years.  Take Florida State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets got back into the series with a blowout win over Los Angeles on Tuesday. We stayed away from that Game, but will jump back into the fray tonight, and play on the Los Angeles Lakers.  Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams are a poor 37-57-3 ATS after upsetting their opponent in the previous playoff game.  Even better:  LeBron James teams are a jaw-dropping 21-0 straight-up, and 17-4 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs vs. foes off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New Orleans.  Last seasons, the Saints won 13 games.  But NFL teams that won 13+ games the previous season have covered just 43 of 108 road openers when installed as a favorite.  Last Sunday, the Raiders went into Charlotte, and defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-30.  Off that win, we'll play on Las Vegas in its home opener tonight.  Since 1980, winning teams, off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 65.3% at home on Monday Nights.  Even better:  the Saints are 3-10 their last 13 road openers, and they're an awful 0-7 ATS their last seven road openers when favored by 3 or more points.  Take Las Vegas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Lakers in Game 1, and were rewarded with a 126-114 victory, as a 7-point favorite.  We'll switch gears tonight, and grab the points, as .600 (or better) underdogs, at the quarterfinal round forward, have cashed 60% in Game 2 of an NBA series off a SU loss in Game 1.  Additionally, the Nuggets are a terrific 36-13-1 ATS when not favored by 3+ points, if they lost by more than five points in their previous game, including 12-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take the Nuggets + the points in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last year, the Ravens demolished Houston 41-7, as a 3.5-point favorite, which was Houston's worst loss in its franchise history when it had a winning record at the time of the game.  So, Houston's going to be out for revenge, here at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  We'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into a 62.7% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, since 1980, home dogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67% if they were off a 14-point (or worse) defeat in Week 1, and their opponent was off a 14-point (or greater) victory.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City.  We played on the Chiefs in their home opener last week, and they rewarded us with a 34-20 victory over Houston.  And that extended the record of defending Super Bowl champs to 14-4-2 ATS in season openers since 2001.  Unfortunately, defending champs are a horrid 3-13 ATS in Week 2 as a road favorite after winning their season opener, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And .501 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 64.1% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  This is a perfect letdown spot for the Chiefs, and especially because Kansas City also has a Monday Night game next week vs. the Baltimore Ravens, their closest competitor for AFC Conference supremacy.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets in Week 1.  The Cards took down a very good 49ers team, 24-20, while Washington defeated Philly, 27-17 (after initially falling behind, 17-0).  It's exceptionally hard to pull off back to back upsets to start the NFL season.  Indeed, underdogs of more than 5 points in Week 2, that won outright as an underdog of more than 5 points in Week 1, have gone 1-28 straight-up, and 10-18-1 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Washington on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that, since 1980, NFL teams that won 25% (or less) of their games the previous season have gone 0-17 SU and 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points off an upset win in Week 1.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as I look for the Cardinals to rout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers upset the Vikings in Week 1, 43-34, while Detroit fell to Chicago, 27-23.  And that loss by Detroit was after it led by 17 points in the 4th quarter.  Green Bay is favored by almost a touchdown, but it's not defeated Detroit by 7 or more points in any of the last six meetings (and by more than 7 points in any of the last 10 games).  The Lions are 4-2 straight-up in the last six games, and won by an average of 12 points per game.  We'll grab the points with Detroit, as NFC North division teams are a fantastic 63-33-4 ATS off a loss when matched up against a division foe off a win, including 25-9 ATS on the road.  Even better:  the Packers are 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a SU/ATS road win.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last season, the Niners lost just three games.  So, it was a bit of a surprise last week when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals.  The good news for San Francisco is that favorites in Week 2, off an upset loss in Week 1, have cashed 63% over the last 40 years, if they had a .750 (or better) W/L record the previous season.  Additionally, the Niners are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of -5 (or more) points off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Niners.