Sports Picks & Predictions

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Dallas.  Both the Falcons and Cowboys suffered Week 1 losses last Sunday.  Atlanta was upset, 38-25, at home by Seattle, while Dallas fell by three on the road to the L.A. Rams.  We'll grab the points with the Falcons, as road teams have cashed 65.9% over the past 40 years if they were upset in their season opener, and lost by 10+ points.  Additionally, the Falcons fall into 48-9 and 57-17 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off blowout losses.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Titans have dominated their AFC South division rival in Nashville, as the Titans have won six straight (4-1-1 ATS), with the last two by margins of 22 and 21 points.  Since 1999, the Titans are 16-5 SU and 13-7-1 ATS at home vs. Jacksonville.  Last Sunday, the Jaguars stunned Indianapolis, 27-20, as a touchdown underdog.  We'll look for a letdown today, as NFL road underdogs off an upset win by 7+ points over a division rival, are a soft 83-128-4 ATS.  Lay the points with the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  Each of these teams were involved in games with double-digit margins of victory last Sunday.  Miami lost by 10 to New England, while Buffalo won by 10 over the NY Jets.  The Bills, though, have been a horrible team off a double-digit win over a division rival, as they've covered just 12 of 50 since 1981.  Meanwhile, Miami falls into 133-70 and 295-223 ATS systems of mine that play on certain divisional home underdogs vs. unrested winning opponents.  Take the Dolphins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Georgia Tech.  Not much was expected of the Yellow Jackets this season, as they were picked to finish last in the ACC preseason poll.  But Georgia Tech stunned Florida State in Tallahassee last week, as a 13-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, teams off an upset conference road win to start the season generally have letdowns their next game, as they've covered just 35% over the past 41 years.  The Knights are 19-6-1 ATS their last 26 when priced from -5.5 to -21.5 points.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Both Marshall and App State opened their 2020 campaigns with solid wins.  Marshall blew out Eastern Kentucky, 59-0, while the Mountaineers took care of Charlotte, 35-20.  We'll fade Appalachian State, as Sun Belt Conference favorites, with a .500 or better record, are an awful 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 1-17 ATS their last 18) as favorites vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Navy + the points over Tulane.  The Midshipmen were blown out at home in their first game of the season, 55-3, by BYU, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane went into South Alabama, and defeated the Jaguars by three points, 27-24.  The fact that Navy lost to BYU should not have come as a surprise, as the Midshipmen are 8-16 their last 24 home openers.  But Navy's gone 12-5-1 ATS its last 18 road openers, and it's 119-65 ATS its last 184 away from Annapolis, including 33-8 ATS off a home defeat.  Take Navy to rebound this afternoon.  Grab the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.   The Nuggets come into this game off back to back upset wins to defeat the Clippers in seven games.  Unfortunately for Denver, NBA teams off back to back upset wins have only cashed the opening game of a series eight of 29 games since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for Denver.  Nor does the fact that LeBron James' teams have gone 50-27 ATS in his career when they were favored by 2+ points, provided they were not leading in the series.  Finally, teams off back to back playoff wins have only covered 24 of 63 games if they were an underdog away from home, and they were off back to back covers by 10+ points.  Take Los Angeles minus the points in Game 1.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Browns were roasted, 38-6, in Week 1 by the Baltimore Ravens.  But I love Cleveland to rebound on this Thursday night vs. its AFC North division rival, Cincinnati.  The last thing any NFL teams wants to do to start a season is go 0-2, and especially if each of its first two games are division contests.  Indeed, over the last 30 years, favorites have cashed 70.3% in division games in Week 2, if they lost to another division foe in Week 1, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the last eight.  That bodes well for Cleveland tonight.  As does the fact that NFL teams that failed to cover the spread by 23+ points in Week 1, have rebounded to go 21-7 ATS in Week 2 vs. an opponent also off a loss, if our team was not getting 10+ points.  Take Cleveland minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami.  The Celtics lost Game 1 in overtime, 117-114, and now trail the Miami Heat 1-0 in the series.  We'll lay the points with Boston as it's 23-13 ATS when it trails by exactly one game in a Playoff series, including 16-5 ATS away from home.  Even better:  Boston is 50-30 ATS its last 80 vs. the Heat, including 26-9 ATS when the line was between +4.5 and -4.5 points.  And, finally, teams off a SU/ATS win to open a series have cashed just 36% over the last 31 years if they scored more than 115 points in their Game 1 victory.  Take Boston minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver.  The Clippers surely did not expect this quarterfinals series to last this long.  But here we are, and the Clippers now have their backs against the wall.  I expect them to react well to the pressure, and to take care of business tonight.  It's true that Denver showed its mettle by coming back from large deficits twice in the last two games.  Still, NBA teams are a dreadful 26-46 ATS off back to back upset wins, if they were an underdog of 8+ points in those two victories.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, if priced between -4 and -8 points.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Tennessee.  It's tough to make money going against the Broncos at home when they're an underdog, or a short favorite.  Indeed, since 1981, Denver's gone 50-22 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points.  Even better:  Denver's 28-11 ATS its last 37 home openers when not favored by double-digits, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog!  The Broncos have also dominated the Titans, with a record of 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Drew Lock & Co. to upset the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Over the years, Pittsburgh has significantly underperformed as road favorites of -2 or more points vs. non-division foes.  Since 1980, they've covered just 24 of 76 games. Additionally, dating back to 1983, home underdogs of +5 or more points have cashed 59% in September if it was Week 1, or they were not off a straight-up loss.  Yesterday, we saw the two big home underdogs (Jacksonville, Washington) pull off major upsets.  And I look for another upset by the Giants on Monday Night Football this evening.  Take the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, in EARLY action on this Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver.  The #3-seeded Nuggets upset Los Angeles in Game 5 to force this sixth game.  But it's still an uphill climb for Denver, as it trails 3-games-to-2 in the series.  We'll go against Denver this afternoon, as #3-seeded Playoff teams are a dismal 35-57-3 ATS off an upset playoff win.  And the Clippers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS their last 11 away from home, if they lost their previous game, and are favored by 4 (or more) points.  Lay it!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Seattle Seahawks.  These two teams met last season here in Atlanta, and the Seahawks came away with a 27-20 victory.  But Atlanta was ravaged with injuries for that game, and was actually installed as a 7.5-point home underdog.  The two teams are much more even in talent for this game, and I have 83-49, 66-35 and 86-53 ATS systems on the Falcons.  Moreover, the Seahawks have always done great in their home opener, and extremely poorly in their road opener.  Dating back to 1999, the Seahawks have covered just 4 of 21 road openers.  Meanwhile, they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 home openers.  Similarly, the Falcons are a fantastic 17-4 ATS their last 21 home openers, but 4-12 ATS their last 16 road openers.  I expect those two trends to stay true to form this afternoon.  Additionally, over the last 16 seasons, in Week 1, non-division home teams have cashed 63% when playing with revenge from a home loss to a non-division foe the previous season.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Green Bay.  Last year, both of these teams made the playoffs, but the Packers defeated Minnesota in both regular season meetings.  I love Minnesota to avenge those defeats, as they fall into a division double-revenge system of mine which is 23-6 ATS since 1987, including a perfect 15-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -7 points!  Even better:  the Packers are 1-7 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS when getting 2+ points from a division rival it defeated twice the previous season.  Finally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five home openers, while the Packers are a poor 4-7 ATS their last 11 road openers.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last season, the Chanticleers went into Lawrence, and upset the Jayhawks, 12-7, as a 7-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Kansas in this rematch, as Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 73% over the last 20 years at home when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Kansas is an awesome 33-6 SU and 25-14 ATS when favored by 3 or more points, including 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Louisville.  These two Bluegrass State rivals met in Nashville last season, and the Cardinals came out on top, 38-21, as a 10.5-point favorite.  That was the 11th straight time Louisville has defeated Western Kentucky, dating back to 1982.  So, there's nothing the Hilltoppers' coach, Tyson Helton, will want more than to end that losing streak tonight.  Both of these teams had rebirths last season under 1st-year coaches.  Helton led the Hilltoppers to a 9-4 record, following a 3-9 campaign in 2018.  And Scott Satterfield guided Louisville to an 8-5 record after the Cards went 2-10 in 2018.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is to play on certain revenge-minded teams, and the Hilltoppers fall into several of my better revenge angles, with records of 129-72, 22-6, 72-31, 58-22 and 80-37 ATS.  The Cardinals have been installed as a double-digit favorite, but they're a wallet-busting 5-15 ATS their last 20 as a home favorite of more than 10 points.  And they're 3-14 ATS their last 17 as a home favorite, priced from -6 to -13.5, vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane minus the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars went into Hattiesburg, and upset Southern Miss, 32-21, as a 12-point underdog.  Prior to that win, the Jaguars had not won away from home in 15 games.  South Alabama will be back home for this game, but I don't believe a 2nd straight upset is in the offing.  Indeed, the Jaguars fall into two negative "letdown" systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins that have records of 106-181 and 67-113 ATS since 1980.  The Jaguars are an awful 35.7% ATS at home off a straight-up win, while Tulane has cashed 75% as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins.  And the Green Wave's coach, Willie Fritz, has gone 28-13 ATS as a favorite in his career, whether here at Tulane (since 2016), or at Georgia Southern before that (2014-15).  Take the Green Wave to blow out South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.  Last January, these two teams met in the quarterfinals, and we had a play on Kansas City minus 8.5 points, and also had our NFL Total of the Year on the over 51.  The Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead, but then collapsed, and lost 51-31.  One of the things I highlighted last season in my breakdown of that Playoff game was that Houston was the only team -- of the 12 that qualified for the post-season -- which had a negative scoring differential.  And they also had the 2nd-worst defense of any Playoff team, as they gave up 24.06 ppg in the regular season.  Yes, it's a new season, so Houston's defensive numbers don't carry over to this year.  Still, it's worth noting that the Chiefs have dominated teams that allow 23.66 points or more, as they're 32-8 SU and 26-13-1 ATS their last 40.  Some may look for a Super Bowl hangover in Week 1, but that theory has never actually been validated by the data.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are on a 16-3 SU and 13-4-2 ATS run in Week 1 since 2001.  Kansas City also falls into 11-0, 47-14, 82-49 and 65-28 ATS systems of mine.  And it ended last season on an 8-0-1 ATS run.  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, even with most of the seats empty.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Boston Celtics.  The Raptors were blown out by 22 points on Monday night, so they are in a MUST-WIN situation tonight.  I love the Raptors to bounce back, as they've gone 11-1 SU/ATS off a loss by more than 11 points.  Additionally, .600 (or better) teams have cashed 79% in Game 6 of the quarterfinals, if down 3-games-to-2, and off a double-digit loss.  Grab the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Clippers were upset by the #3-seeded Nuggets, 110-101, on Saturday.  But off that upset win, we will fade Denver in this Game 3.  Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams have been awful off an upset playoff win, and especially when installed as an underdog of more than 5 points.  In that role, they've gone 2-25 straight-up, and 7-19-1 ATS.  Even better, Kawhi Leonard's teams have gone 24-1 straight-up, and 19-6 ATS their last 25 off a loss by more than eight points, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  Lay the points with Doc Rivers' men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Houston.  In LeBron James' storied career, his teams (Cleveland, Miami, Los Angeles) have been terrific in the NBA Playoffs when they were favored by at least 2 points, and were not winning the series.  Dating back to his first season in the Playoffs (2006), LeBron's teams have gone 61-14 straight-up, and 48-27 ATS, including 7-0 straight-up and 5-2 ATS when down 1 game to none.  That's one reason I love LeBron & Co. to bounce back off their dismal effort on Friday.  Another is that teams seeded #3 (or worse) and installed as underdogs of more than 5 points away from home, have covered just 71 of 183 games off an upset playoff win. Take the Lakers in Game #2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Miami.  The Heat will aim to go 8-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs with a win and cover this afternoon.  But their long SU/ATS win streak has led to a big movement in this point spread.  If Miami was an underdog once again (they were a 5-point underdog in the series' first three games), I would consider grabbing the points.  But they're a small favorite now.  Consider that underdogs up 3-games-to-none have gone 14-4-1 ATS.  However, small favorites of less than 3 points (or PK) have only covered 4 of 13 when up 3-games-to-none.  We'll grab the value with Milwaukee, and fade the Heat.  For technical support, also consider that, over the last 29 years, sub-.666 teams off an upset win that had covered their previous seven games have cashed just 47 of 139 games.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets needed 7 games to put away a game Oklahoma City squad.  And their reward for that victory is a date against the #1-seeded Lakers.  In contrast to Houston, Los Angeles had a relatively easy time against the #8-seeded Trail Blazers (though the Lakers were aided, somewhat, by key injuries to Portland).  We'll fade Mike D'Antoni's men, as underdogs of +6 to +11.5 points have cashed just 32% in Game 1 of a series, if their previous Playoff series went the distance.  And #1-seeds are an awesome 67% in Game 1 of a quarterfinals series, if priced from -4.5 to -11.5 points.  It's true that the Rockets have won the last two meetings vs. the Lakers.  But L.A. is a staggering 38-3 straight-up when favored, and playing with double-revenge, including 5-0 ATS their last five; 11-2 ATS their last 13; and 70.9% ATS since Feb. 18, 2003.  Take the Lakers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Heat have stormed out to a 2-games-to-none series lead, so this Game 3 becomes a virtual 'must-win' for the Bucks, given that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-games-to-none deficit.  We'll lay the points with the Bucks, as favorites of more than 4 points have cashed 70.3 since 1990 in the quarterfinals, if they were down 2 games in the series.  And, since Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the league, the Bucks are 39-28 ATS off exactly two losses.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over Boston.  The #2-seeded Raptors are down 2-games-to-none, and are in a "virtual" must-win situation tonight, given that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a 7-game series.  We'll take Toronto, as NBA favorites off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and down 2-games-to-none in a series, have covered 60.8% over the last 30 years.  Even better:  the Raptors are an awesome 44-19 ATS off exactly two SU/ATS losses.  Take the Raptors in Game 3.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat.  The Heat have taken three of four vs. Milwaukee this season.  But I love the Bucks to bounce back off their Game 1 upset loss on Monday.  Since Mike Budenholzer assumed the head coaching duties, Milwaukee is 35-9 straight-up, and 30-14 ATS off a loss, including 19-5 ATS off a loss by 7+ points.  Even better:  in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs, underdogs of more than 4 points, off back to back wins by more than 10 points, are a horrid 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS.  Finally, the Heat have covered just 1 of their last 16 when facing a revenge-minded foe off an upset loss.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets pulled even with Utah in this series with a 119-107 win in Game 6.  Now, after being an underdog in Games 3 through 6, Denver's been installed as a small favorite for Game 7 (though not as big as a favorite as it was in Games 1 + 2).  The Nuggets are a horrid 0-17 ATS away from home as a favorite (or PK) off a win by more than eight points, including a blowout, 19-point loss in Game 2 of this series.  Meanwhile, the Jazz are a super 43-25 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 18-6 ATS when playing with revenge.  Take the Jazz + the points in this decisive Game 7.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Boston Celtics.  The Celtics snapped Toronto's 8-game winning streak on Sunday, when they upset Toronto, 112-94, as a 2-point underdog.  That extended Boston's current win streak to 5 games.  But turnabout is fair play, and we'll look for the Raptors to level this series at 1-game apiece this evening.  Toronto is a super 32-15-1 ATS off an ATS loss, including 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge.  And it's 11-0 SU/ATS off a loss by more than 11 points, and covered those 11 games by an average of 9.36 points.  Number 3 seeds, like Boston, are an awful 32-57 ATS off an upset playoff win vs. their opponent.  Lay the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Utah Jazz.  The Nuggets have been demolished over the last two ball games, as they've given up 124 points in back-to-back games to the Jazz.  On the other hand, they also gave up more than 124 points in Game 1, but they won that game (135-125) in overtime.  Down 2-games-to-1, we'll grab the points with the underdog Nuggets, as teams down 2-1 in a series have cashed 80.9% of the time off a loss by more than 22 points.  Even better:  Denver's an awesome 30-16 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more.  Take the Nuggets to level this series at 2 games apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over Houston.  The Thunder were actually favored by a point in Game 1.  But after falling behind 2-games-to-none to James Harden & Co., the Thunder now find themselves installed as a small underdog in Game 3.  I believe it's an overreaction, so we'll step in and take the points with OKC.  Admittedly, the Thunder have lost their last three games SU/ATS.  But Oklahoma City is a tremendous 29-9 ATS away from home when they were on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  And prior to dropping these two Playoff games to Houston, Oklahoma City had covered the last five meetings (and nine of the last 11).  Since 1990, NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses by 13+ points have covered 59%, so we'll grab the points with the Thunder on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Dallas.  The Clippers lost Game 2, 127-114, as a 5-point favorite.  But they had won (and covered) the previous five games in this series.  I love Los Angeles to bounce back tonight in Game 3, as NBA teams that failed to cover Game 2 by 18+ points, have rebounded to cover Game 3 58% of the time since 1990.  Doc Rivers' men are 27-13 their last 40 when playing with revenge from a defeat earlier in the season.  And they're an awesome 30-10 ATS their last 40 off a straight-up loss, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when priced from -4 to -7 points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Damian Lillard & Co. upset the Lakers in Game 1, 100-93.  But Portland's never performed well off a Playoff victory, as it's 25-45-3 ATS, including 5-17 ATS when getting more than four points.  Meanwhile, LeBron James' teams have gone 47-26 ATS in the Playoffs if they weren't winning the series, and were favored by two or more points.  And his teams have also gone 97-66 ATS in his career when favored, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win.  It's true that the Lakers have dropped their last six to the spread.  But NBA teams have gone 13-2 ATS in the Playoffs when priced from -4 to -9.5 points, if they were on a 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Take the L.A. Lakers.  Good luck, always....Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Orlando.  The Magic stunned Milwaukee, 122-110, as a 13.5-point underdog on Tuesday.  But off that defeat, we'll lay the points with the Bucks in Game 2.  Since Mike Budenholzer took over as head coach, the Bucks are an awesome 34-9 SU and 29-14 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 18-5 ATS when priced from -7 to -13 points!  Moreover, teams that owned a win percentage at least .05 better than their opponent, have cashed over 69% since 1990 off a loss to start the opening round of the Playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Magic are a dreadful 3-12 ATS away from home as an underdog of 3+ points following a Playoff win vs. their opponent.  Take the Bucks to blow out Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Denver.  The Jazz handed their backers a really bad beat on Monday, as they fell in overtime by 10 points, as a 4.5-point underdog.  Still, Donovan Mitchell was brilliant in defeat, as he led the way with 57 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists.  Remarkably, the Nuggets, who have won greater than 65% of their games the past two seasons, are a jaw-dropping 0-16 ATS their last 16 away from home as a favorite off a win by more than eight points!  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Toronto.  In Game 1, the Raptors smacked the Nets, 134-110.  But I love taking double-digit underdogs off a SU/ATS double-digit loss vs. foes off a SU/ATS double-digit win, as they're 474-374 ATS.  Even better:  The Nets are a solid 42-25 ATS as an underdog when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 12-0 ATS when getting more than 9 points.  Take Brooklyn + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana.  These two teams met at the conclusion of the regular season, and we played on the Pacers in their blowout victory.  That was also Indiana's second straight upset win heading into these playoffs.  Unfortunately, over the last 30 seasons, NBA teams off back to back upset wins to end the regular season generally do poorly in Game 1 of the Playoffs, as they've covered just 33% of the time.  Also, Erik Spoelstra's teams are 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS when favored in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers over the Miami Heat.  These two teams met four days ago, and Miami got the better of Indy, 114-92, as a 4-point favorite.  These two teams will also play each other in the first round of the Playoffs, so this is a "tune-up" for both squads.  I expect Indiana will want to gain a measure of confidence, and play better this afternoon than it did on Monday.  Indiana also falls into a 228-148 ATS revenge system of mine, based on the fact it has lost all three meetings to the Heat this season.  Take the Pacers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Utah.  Although the Spurs can still reach the playoffs for the 23rd consecutive season, their chances to do so are small, as they need at least two of three other teams (Memphis, Phoenix, Portland) to lose today, while they win their own game vs. the Jazz.  By the time this game tips off, the Spurs will know whether they've been knocked out, or if they're still alive.  But even if they're knocked out, I still expect them to put forth a solid effort to end the season on a high note, because that's what a Gregg Popovich team would do.  The Spurs fall into 115-55 and 98-45 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Heat come into this game off a 114-92 win over Indiana, while the Thunder were blown out, 128-101 by the Phoenix Suns.  We played on Phoenix in that game, as the Suns have been "playing to win."  And the fact that OKC was annihilated gives an indication as to what its mindset is at this late stage of the NBA season.  I expect a similar result tonight.  We'll lay the points with the much more interested club (Miami), which also falls into 81-37 and 115-54 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Dallas.  If the Blazers can win their final two games, they will make the Playoffs "play-in" series, so there's great incentive tonight -- much more so than the Mavericks possess, since Dallas is guaranteed to be either the #6 or #7 seed.  Portland plays with revenge from a 133-125 defeat in January, but McCollum and Nurkic were out for that game.  Both will be on the floor tonight.  We'll lay the points with the Trail Blazers, as they fall into a 128-63 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a "late season" system which is 79-36 ATS.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Oklahoma City.  This 8-game re-start schedule in Orlando was, of course, necessary for several reasons.  The most important were that the players needed to shake off the rust to prepare for the playoffs, and teams on the outside-looking-in needed a final opportunity to make a run at the post-season.  And that last reason has impelled the Phoenix Suns to play their best basketball of the year.  Phoenix is the lone unbeaten team at Disney World, with a 5-0 SU/ATS record.  And it retains a shot to make the play-in round, if it wins its final three games.  The first of those is this afternoon against a Thunder squad which blew out Washington yesterday.  Phoenix will thus have an advantage in terms of rest.  And NBA teams playing with extra rest have gone 14-9 ATS at Disney.  We'll lay the points with the Suns, as we look for them to win (and cover) their 6th straight game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  In the preseason, I released two NBA futures plays:  the Clippers to win the Western Conference, and the Bucks to win the Eastern Conference.  And I still believe that will be the Finals match-up in October.  The Clippers, for the most part, have nothing to play for in their remaining four games.  They're 2 games ahead of Denver for the #2 seed, and have a game vs. the Nuggets on Wednesday.  Los Angeles could go 1-3 in its final four games, but would still get the #2 seed if it defeated Denver next week.  So, that's pretty much the highest priority game on L.A.'s schedule.  Portland, on the other hand, needs to win each of its last four games because, if it slips up just once, it could miss the Playoffs.  Portland, thus, has a big edge in the "motivation' department this afternoon.  And it also falls into a 212-132 ATS revenge system of mine, as it lost by 20 points at Los Angeles when the two teams last met.  The Trail Blazers are 9-0-2 ATS their last 11 (and 22-7-2 ATS their last 31) when playing with revenge from a loss by 12+ points, if they weren't getting more than 4 points.  Take the Trail Blazers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami.  The Bucks pulled a rare clunker in their last game, as they lost outright as an 18.5-point favorite to Brooklyn.  It was the 3rd biggest NBA upset in the past 30 seasons!  But off that defeat, I love Mike Budenholzer's men to bounce back this afternoon, as his Milwaukee teams are 32-7 straight-up and 27-12 ATS off a loss, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -9 to -11 points.  It also will help Milwaukee that Budenholzer has promised to play his starters more than on Tuesday, when none played more than 20 minutes.  The Heat are a poor 15-26 ATS off a win this season.  Take the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Portland.  The Rockets are 2-0 in Walt Disney World, and have defeated two very good teams (Milwaukee, Dallas).  Tonight, they'll get a relative breather when they take on Portland.  The Blazers have struggled to a 28-37 ATS mark this season, and are 24-38 ATS their last 62 when priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points.  Meanwhile, Houston plays with double-revenge, and is 20-7 ATS its last 27 when playing with double-revenge.  Take the Rockets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Boston.  We played against the Heat yesterday, and got the $$$ with Toronto.  But we will switch gears and grab the points with Erik Spoelstra's men this evening, as Miami is 17-6 ATS off a loss this season.  And the Heat fall into a great 109-46 ATS system of mine which plays on certain unrested teams off a loss vs. foes off a win.  Grab the points.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Indiana.  The Magic are playing great ball, with 5 straight wins (and six straight covers), and fall into a 123-87 ATS system of mine which plays are certain revenge-minded squads.  With Orlando, indeed, playing with revenge from a 111-106 defeat, we'll lay the points with the Magic.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs moved to 2-0 since the restart yesterday when they upset the Grizzlies, 108-106, as a 3-point underdog.  San Antonio is trying to make the playoffs for the 23rd consecutive year, but it still has an uphill battle to qualify for the post-season in 2020.  After opening its Walt Disney schedule against two teams below .500 (Kings, Grizzlies), the Spurs' schedule will be difficult from this point forward, with games against the Sixers, Jazz (twice), Rockets, Nuggets and Pelicans.  The Spurs are an awful 11-24-1 ATS off a win vs. foes off an upset loss, including 2-10 ATS as an underdog of less than nine points.  And this is a horrible match-up for San Antone, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles are out, and it will have no one on the inside to guard Joel Embiid.  Take the 76ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Miami.  The Raptors come into this game off a big win over the Lakers -- their fifth straight, overall.  But I don't foresee a letdown tonight, as Toronto will be seeking major revenge from a beatdown administered by Miami back in January.  In that previous meeting between these two teams, the Raptors had their worst offensive game since 2015, as they shot just 31% from the floor, and scored just 76 points, in an 8-point defeat.  But the Raptors are a spectacular 14-1 ATS away from home (including 10-0 ATS their last 10) when they are matched up against a team that held them to 82 or less points in the previous meeting.  And Toronto also falls into a 106-47 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points with Nick Nurse's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Mavs absolutely collapsed in the final minute of Friday night's game vs. Houston.  They led by seven points with 45 seconds left, but lost in overtime, 153-149.  To put that defeat in perspective, consider that NBA teams were 711-2 in the previous 713 games when leading by 7+ points with a minute or less to go in regulation!  So, Dallas will seek to redeem itself tonight vs. a Phoenix team which blew out the Mavs, 133-104, in the last meeting.  The Mavericks are an awesome 47-28-1 ATS off a loss when playing with revenge vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  And Phoenix is 2-9 ATS its last 11 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange over North Carolina.  The Tar Heels blew out Virginia Tech yesterday to advance to this 2nd round game vs. Syracuse on Wednesday night.  Unfortunately, the Tar Heels will be at a significant disadvantage tonight since the Orange will be well-rested, as they have not played since Saturday.  And rested ACC Conference teams have gone 34-18 ATS vs. unrested foes in the ACC Tournament, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were playing with revenge, and not favored by 9+ points.  Take Syracuse to blow out North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over Appalachian St.  These two Sun Belt Conference rivals met twice earlier this season, with each team winning SU/ATS on its own home court.  This Quarterfinals match-up will be played in San Marcos, so the Bobcats will have the advantage -- especially given that they blew out the Mountaineers, 82-57, here, earlier this year.  The Bobcats fall into one of my favorite Tourney systems, which is 47-14 ATS since 1990.  That angle plays on certain home teams in conference tourney games vs. foes off wins.  And the Bobcats also fall into 96-47, 160-114 and 76-47 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off defeats to end their regular season.  Lay the points with Texas State.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Washington.  These two teams met last weekend in Tucson, and the Huskies upset Arizona, 69-63.  That also was Washington's 2nd straight upset win on the road.  We'll fade the Huskies in this Pac-12 Tourney game, as teams off two road upset wins have cashed just 38% in the Conference Tourneys over the past 30 years, if they were matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  Take Arizona minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the George Washington Colonials minus the points over Fordham.  In this Opening Round match-up in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, we have two teams that are not playing very good basketball.  The Rams have lost 11 of 12 since their 59-54 victory over George Washington, on January 22.  And George Washington hasn't played much better, as it's 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS over its last 12 games.  We'll lay the points with George Washington, as it falls into a 41-13 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as 44-9 and 60-18 ATS Tourney systems of mine that play on certain teams off losses.  Additionally, Atlantic 10 Conference favorites of less than 13 points have gone 169-104 ATS in the A-10 Tournament since 1992, including 37-19 ATS if it lost all the season's previous meetings vs. its opponent.  Take George Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Golden State.  We played against Kawhi Leonard & Co. this past Sunday, and were rewarded with an upset win by the Lakers.  But off that upset defeat, we'll lay the points with the Clippers tonight, as Los Angeles is a spectacular 29-7 SU and 26-10 ATS off a loss.  Additionally, the Warriors won a rare game this past Saturday when they upset the 76ers, 118-114.  Unfortunately for Steve Kerr's men, they're a poor 55-82-2 ATS off a straight-up win, including 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 8+ points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over St. Mary's.  The West Coast Conference should just give the Bulldogs a bye into the final game.  After all, this is the 20th season in a row that Gonzaga has reached the title game.  And the Bulldogs have gone 15-5 in those games (but 15-3 straight-up and 12-6 ATS if one eliminates the two title games played on their opponent's home court).  The Gaels, once again, had a great regular season.  But they've never done well in the post-season, and especially not when matched-up against the better teams.  Indeed, St. Mary's is 1-12 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points in the post-season.  Likewise, the Gaels are 12-28 ATS vs. foes that have a scoring margin of 5+ points.  Finally, the Bulldogs fall into 41-6, 102-51 and 18-2 ATS systems of mine.  Take Gonzaga.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Stony Brook Seawolves minus the points over Hartford.  The Hawks took both meetings vs. the Seawolves this season, including a double-digit win here, in February.  But Stony Brook falls into a 397-275 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 2nd system which is 81-28 that plays against certain teams off wins.  Even better:  America East Conference teams have gone 42-21 ATS in the Tournament when playing with revenge, including a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when playing with double revenge.  Take Stony Brook.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies + the points over Hofstra.  These two teams will meet in the Colonial Athletic Association title game this evening, in Washington, D.C.  They met twice earlier this season, and the Pride took both meetings.  But each of those two regular season games went down to the wire, as Hofstra won the first game, 74-72, at Northeastern, and the second game, at home, 75-71.  I look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the Huskies, as College teams have cashed 65% of Conference Championship games over the last 20 years when playing with revenge from 2 narrow regular season losses by 5 or less points.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Fairfield.  The Jaspers come into this Metro Atlantic Tourney game off three straight double-digit losses, yet have been installed as a favorite against an opponent which handed it two defeats this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the Jaspers, but we'll step in and lay the small number, as favorites have covered 60% in the post-season since 1990 off back to back double-digit losses, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take Manhattan.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Panthers lost at home to Wake Forest as a 6.5-point favorite earlier in the season, and have dropped all four meetings since 2017.  Notwithstanding this history, the Panthers have been installed as the favorite in this opening round game of the ACC Tournament.  We'll lay the points, as ACC Conference teams have cashed 67% since 1990 in the post-season, if playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, and not favored in the tournament game by 3+ points.  Take the Panthers.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles minus the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Eagles lost at home, 76-75, to Arkansas St. to end its regular season.  But it will have another opportunity to win a home game tonight, in this Sun Belt Conference tourney game.  These two teams met twice earlier this season, and the Eagles won both games SU/ATS -- including a 20-point victory here in Statesboro.  Georgia Southern is now 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Even better:  the Eagles are a solid 16-4 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when playing off a SU/ATS loss vs. a foe off a SU win, while the Rajin' Cajuns have covered just two of nine tourney games when playing with double-revenge from 2 losses earlier in the season.  Lay the points with Georgia Southern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm eastern, our selection is on the Delaware Blue Hens + the points over Hofstra.  The Pride come into this game on a 10-1 SU/ATS win streak, including back to back blowout wins over James Madison (97-81) and Drexel (61-43).  And they also blew out today's opponent -- Delaware -- by 16 points in the last meeting, 16 days ago.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Pride.  But .700 (or better) teams off back to back SU/ATS wins by more than 15 points, that also defeated their revenge-minded Tournament opponent by more than 15 points earlier in the season, have covered just 40% over the last 30 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Hofstra this evening.  Nor does the fact that the Blue Hens are 10-2-1 ATS their last 13 Tournament games.  Take Delaware + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies minus the points over Towson.  These two teams met at Northeastern last Sunday, and the Tigers came away with a hard-fought 75-72 victory.  That was Towson's 3rd straight win (both SU and ATS), as well.  But we'll go against the Tigers tonight, as Northeastern's 8-1 ATS as a favorite (or PK) vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are a poor 42-63-4 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-5 ATS in the post-season.  And Northeastern also falls into 60-33 and 126-94 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take the Huskies minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Cleveland.  The Spurs will have a scheduling advantage tonight, as they had Saturday off, while Cleveland played here, at home, vs. the Nuggets.  And the Spurs are a super 96-65 ATS vs. unrested foes.  But that's not the best part.  If the Spurs lost failed to cover the spread by more than 11 points in their previous game, then our unrested opponents have gone 0-29 straight-up, and 3-26 ATS vs. San Antonio!  With the Spurs, indeed, off a blowout loss to the Nets where they failed to cover by 16.5 points, we will lay the wood with San Antonio tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards and Heat have traded home victories over the first three meetings this season.  But I love Miami to break through and win tonight on Washington's home court, notwithstanding Miami's current 4-game road losing streak.  The Wizards come into this game off a 118-112 victory over Atlanta, as a 5.5-point favorite, while Miami lost by 6 at New Orleans, as a 1.5-point underdog (Miami's second straight ATS loss).  Unfortunately for the Wizards, they're an awful 16-29 ATS off a SU/ATS win when facing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss, including 2-11 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +7 points.  And the Wizards have also covered just one of their last 11 (and 22 of their last 62) vs. foes off back to back ATS defeats.  Meanwhile, Miami's a superb 41-16-3 ATS off back to back point spread losses, including 26-6 ATS on the road!  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks + the points over Oral Roberts.  The Mavericks were blown out by 20 points at North Dakota St. last weekend.  But that 20-point loss has triggered a great 45-10 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in tourney games off double-digit losses.  Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered just 5 of their last 25 post-season games, including 1-11 ATS off back to back wins.  Take Omaha + the points tonight.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The NBA couldn't be happier that the two best Western Conference teams both reside in Los Angeles, as this budding rivalry should provide great entertainment in late May.  The Lakers have been installed as an underdog in this game, notwithstanding the fact they have won 10 of 11 games, own the conference's best record, and just beat Milwaukee, the league's #1 team.  The only thing not on the Lakers' regular season resume is a win over the rival Clippers, as the Lakers lost the first two meetings of the season.  We'll grab the points, as LeBron James' teams have gone 52-36 ATS when playing with double-revenge vs. a division foe.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are an awful 59-109-4 ATS vs. .589 (or better) foes playing with double-revenge, including 11-31 ATS as a favorite!  Finally, the Lakers are 11-5 straight-up, and 13-3 ATS their last 16 as underdogs.  Take the Lakers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Michigan.  The #25-ranked Michigan Wolverines have had a very successful season under first-year coach Juwan Howard, as have the Top 10-ranked Maryland Terrapins under ninth-year head coach Mark Turgeon (though they have dropped their last two games).  This will be the final regular season game for each team before the Big 10 Conference Tourney starts next week.  And Michigan has been awful in the underdog role, when playing its final road game of the season, as it's gone 0-6 SU/ATS its last six, with all six losses by DOUBLE-DIGITS, and its average defeat by 19.66 ppg.  It doesn't get much uglier than that.  Even better:  Maryland's 28-14-1 ATS off back to back conference defeats.  Take the Terrapins.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Pacific.  These two teams split the season series, with each team taking a game on its opponent's home floor.  It's true that the Tigers are playing very well, with seven wins in their last eight games, including a 71-64 victory over San Diego last Saturday, as a 4-point favorite.  Unfortunately, they're a horrid 0-17-1 ATS in the post-season off a SU/ATS win over a conference foe.  Yikes!  The Dons, meanwhile, are also playing well, and won their fourth in a row last night with a 29-point blowout win over Loyola Marymount.  And San Francisco's 21-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win by more than 18 points, and 13-2 SU its last 15 vs. the Tigers.  Finally, West Coast Conference Tourney favorites have gone 72-45-6 ATS when favored by less than 13 points.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the NC Greensboro Spartans minus the points over UT-Chattanooga.  The Mocs defeated the Spartans last Saturday, 74-72, as a 3.5-point underdog.  But that upset win has set-up Chattanooga in several negative systems of mine, with records of 54-86, 141-222 and 47-101 ATS since 1990.  Even worse:  the Mocs are an awful 1-9 ATS their last 10 tourney games off a straight-up win, while the Spartans are a strong 15-4 ATS as a favorite when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the year.  Take NC Greensboro.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Murray State.  The Bruins are red-hot, with 11 straight wins coming into this Ohio Valley title game.  These two teams also met last season in the Ohio Valley Conference Championship game, and the Bruins were upset by Murray State, 77-65.  We'll take Belmont to turn the tables on Murray State, as NCAA teams off 9 (or more) wins have cashed 60% in the championship game of the Conference Tourneys over the last 28 years.  Lay the points.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Elon.  The Dukes lost both meetings to the Phoenix this season, but they've cashed 69% over the past 25 years when playing with double-revenge, while Elon has covered just 20% over the last 15 seasons against an opponent it defeated twice earlier in the season.  The Dukes also fall into 15-2, 84-39 and 89-60 ATS "contrarian" systems of mine that play on certain teams on losing streaks.  Take James Madison + the points.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Valparaiso Crusaders plus the points over Missouri State.  Both of these teams are playing good basketball.  The Bears have gone 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS with their lone ATS loss in this stretch to Vaparaiso, while Valpo has cashed 7 of its last 9, including an upset win over Loyola-Chicago yesterday.  We'll grab the points with the underdog Crusaders, as they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 vs. Missouri St, while the Bears are 4-13 ATS as a favorite in the Missouri Valley Conference tourney.  Take Valparaiso.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Charlotte.  The Rockets come into this evening's game off back to back SU/ATS losses to the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Clippers.  But Houston was 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS immediately preceding this losing streak.  I love Houston to rebound today on the road, as it's a super 84-51 ATS on the road off back to back SU/ATS defeats.  Admittedly, the Hornets are playing well, as they've covered five straight.  But Charlotte's a very poor 10-30 ATS at home off 3 straight ATS wins, including 4-19 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up loss.  Finally, the Rockets have dominated the Hornets, as they're 17-1 SU and 11-4-3 ATS since 2011.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons minus the points over NC Wilmington.  The Dragons have dropped seven straight games (1-6 ATS), but we'll lay the points with them this afternoon, as they fall into a 78-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams in the Conference tourneys.  Drexel lost just nine days ago at Wilmington, 76-65.  And revenge-minded favorites of 4 points or less have gone 17-2 ATS in the Colonial Athletic Ass'n Tourney if they were off a loss to end the regular season.  Take Drexel.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Rutgers.  The Boilermakers lost, 70-63, at Rutgers earlier this season.  But the Scarlet Knights were playing much better basketball at that time, as they were 16-5, and ranked among the Top 25.  Unfortunately, since that game, the Scarlet Knights have gone 3-6, including 0-5 away from home!  For the season, Rutgers has won just one of its 11 games away from home, so that doesn't bode well against a Purdue squad which is 11-4 SU at home, and 9-6 ATS.  Even better:  the Boilermakers are 68-46 ATS as single-digit home favorite vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes.  Finally, Rutgers falls into a negative 69-146 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on the road off a win.  Lay the points with Purdue.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Wyoming.  The Cowboys have won two straight games after upsetting Nevada last night, as a 10.5-point underdog.  And that followed another upset win as a double-digit underdog vs. Colorado St. to start their Conference tournament play.  Unfortunately, it's highly unlikely that the Cowboys will pull off another win as a double-digit underdog tonight, as the Aggies won both meetings this season by 20+ points.  For technical support, consider that teams off outright wins in the quarter-finals round of a Conference tournament have only covered the spread 37% of the time over the last 30 years vs. foes off an ATS loss.  And teams off back to back SU/ATS wins in the Conference Tourney have covered just 1 of 18 in the semi-final round if they lost by 20+ points in the season's previous meeting.  Take Utah State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Ohio U.  The RedHawks were blown out by 31 points by Ohio U. back on February 8, 77-46.  But since that game, Miami has gone 6-1 ATS, including three straight point spread wins coming into tonight's game.  We'll lay the points with the RedHawks, as favorites off 3+ ATS wins have cashed 73% over the past 27 sesaons, if they had revenge from a loss to a conference foe by more than 28 points.  Take Miami-Ohio.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the VMI Keydets minus the points over Samford.  The Bulldogs didn't win very many Southern Conference games this season, as they were just 4-14 inside the league.  But two of their wins came against today's opponent, VMI.  We'll take the Keydets today, as Southern Conference teams have cashed 78.9% in the Conference Tourney, if they were favored and lost all the season's meetings to their opponent.  Take VMI.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs + the points over Northern Iowa.  We played on the Bulldogs yesterday, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out Illinois State, 75-65.  We'll come right back with Drake this afternoon, as they'll face a Northern Iowa team which embarrassed it last Saturday on Drake's home court.  The Bulldogs were a 3.5-point home underdog, but were held to their lowest offensive output in over 5 years, and lost 70-43.  The good news for the Bulldogs here is that revenge-minded Missouri Valley teams have gone 136-85 ATS if they lost by 18+ points earlier in the season, and were not favored by more than 3 points!  Additionally, the Panthers fall into negative 82-168 and 43-107 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off road wins.  Take Drake + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars won a rare road game last Friday night, when they went into Seattle and defeated their rival, Washington.  Still that was Wazzu's first road win in the Pac-12 this season, after starting 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the Pac-12 road.  And it's a horrid 19-85 straight-up, and 35-65-4 ATS on the Pac-12 road its last 104 road games, including 11-31-1 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat.  The Wildcats had a disastrous trip to Southern California last weekend, as they lost to both USC and UCLA.  But Arizona's back home, where it's gone 14-4 SU and 12-6 ATS its last 18.  And it's also 16-8 ATS at home off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 111-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset defeats.  Lay the points with Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors minus the points over Eastern Illinois.  In this Ohio Valley Tourney game, we'll take the Governors to avenge their 83-80 loss 12 days ago to the Panthers.  That game was on the road in Charleston, where the Panthers went 10-2 this season.  This game will be played at a neutral site, in Evansville, Indiana.  And that bodes well for the Governors, as they've won just five of their last 17 road games, but are 26-0 straight-up, and 11-4-2 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when favored.  And Austin Peay also falls into a 188-100 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams favored in the post-season.  Take the Governors.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Valparaiso.  The Crusaders have not been a strong post-season team "in Vegas," and especially not when they've matched-up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .800 which wasn't off a double-digit win.  In that situation, the Crusaders are 0-18 ATS.  That doesn't bode well today against an Evansville team which is 9-22 on the season.  These two teams played exceptionally close games this season, with Valpo taking both meetings by exactly two points.  Unfortunately, teams that won both meetings by 2 points or less have NOT fared well in the conference tournaments, and especially not if they played the tourney game away from home, as they've cashed just 29% since 1990.  Take Evansville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over New Mexico.  The Aggies lost to New Mexico, 66-64, last Saturday.  That game was in Albuquerque, but this game will be played at a neutral site, in Las Vegas.  The Lobos went 15-3 at home this season, and have also gone 23-15 ATS their last 38 home games.  But away from Albuquerque, it's been a different story, as UNM is a poor 9-22 straight-up, and 10-19 ATS, including 1-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Even better:  Utah State's a terrific 24-11-2 ATS at home, or on a neutral court when playing with revenge, including 12-1 ATS if the Aggies weren't off a point spread win.  Finally, New Mexico falls into negative 13-42 and 44-91 ATS Tournament systems of mine that go against certain teams off wins.  Take Utah State minus the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Toreros plus the points over Loyola Marymount.  Both of these teams come into this West Coast Conference tourney game off losses.  The Toreros fell, 71-64, at home vs. Pacific last Saturday, while the Lions lost at home, 69-67, to San Francisco.  Each team also had a miserable season, as the Toreros won just two conference games, while Loyola Marymount was slightly better, at 4-12, including a six-point win vs. San Diego back in January.  But the Lions had the benefit of playing that game at home, in Los Angeles.  This game will be played at a neutral site, in Las Vegas.  We'll grab the points with the underdog Toreros, as revenge-minded conference foes are an awesome 40-12 ATS away from home vs. Loyola Marymount, including a perfect 15-0 ATS if our revenger had a win percentage less than .355.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix minus the points over Oakland.  These two teams met just 11 days ago, and the Golden Grizzlies won, 92-88.  But that game was in Rochester; this game will be played in Green Bay.  And the Phoenix are an awesome 19-0-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge, if they weren't favored by more than 10 points, and didn't cover the spread in their previous game.  With the Phoenix indeed off an ATS loss last Saturday to Cleveland St, our 19-0 ATS angle is triggered.  Lay the points with the Phoenix.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Illinois State.  The Redbirds are 10-20 this season, but one of their 10 victories was an upset win over Drake, in Normal, 12 days ago.  We'll lay the points with Drake in this re-match, as winning teams have gone 95-58 ATS in the post-season vs. losing teams when playing with revenge from an upset road loss.  Take Drake.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets come into this game on a 4-game point spread win streak, but tonight's game is an example of facing the wrong opponent at the wrong time.  The Nuggets were favored by 16 points over Golden State on Tuesday, but actually lost by 16, 116-100.  After the game, Denver's All-Star center, Nikola Jokic said, "it happens."  Well, it hasn't happened very often.  Since 1990, it was just the fourth time that an NBA team lost by more than 15 points after being favored by more than 15.  We'll take the Nuggets to bounce back off that embarrassing defeat, as they're 12-7 ATS on the road off an upset home loss.  Even better:  Charlotte's a wallet-busting 1-14 ATS at home off 4 point spread wins.  Take the Nuggets to rebound on Thursday, and blow out Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over UNLV.  This first round game in the Mountain West Conference tournament will once again be played on UNLV's home court (for the 14th straight season).  But that hasn't been a big advantage for the Runnin' Rebels over the years.  And, lately, UNLV's gone 0-4-2 ATS their last six, and 4-10-2 ATS their last 16 Mountain West tournament games here at Thomas & Mack Center.  Coincidentally, these two teams met eight days ago right here, and the Rebels won, 76-66.  But we'll take Boise to avenge that defeat, as it's 6-1 ATS its last seven when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And it's 27-16 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-3 ATS as an underdog.  Take Boise + the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Indiana.  We had our biggest NBA play of the season-to-date when these two teams last met.  That game was in Indiana, and the Pacers blew out Milwaukee to snap a long, 6-game losing streak.  For this game, however, it's a Bucks team which is off a loss, while Indiana's won four straight.  Since Mike Budenholzer took over as head coach, the Bucks are an awesome 23-6 ATS in the regular season off a loss, including a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs. winning teams.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Detroit.  The Thunder come into tonight's game off back to back losses.  Of course, those were to possibly the two best teams in basketball -- the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers -- so there's no great shame in losing them.  Tonight, the Thunder will step down in class to play the Detroit Pistons, who have lost eight of their last nine games, including a 108-101 setback to the Thunder on February 7.  Overall, the Thunder have won 13 of the last 17 meetings vs. Detroit.  And they've also covered nine of 11 off back to back losses.  The Pistons have covered their last two games -- both on the road -- but are an awful 6-18-1 ATS their last 25 off a point spread win, including 0-7 ATS at home.  Take the Thunder to blow out Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over Tulsa.  The Owls were upset by Tulsa on the road earlier this season.  But they're back home tonight, in Philadelphia, for their final home game of the season.  And it's a venue where the Owls have dominated.  Indeed, over the last 15 seasons, Temple is 48-11 SU and 42-16-1 ATS at home when favored by six points or less (or PK).  But that's not the best part.  When Temple played a conference foe in this price range, then it has gone 31-6 SU/ATS at home its last 37.  Since 2008, the Owls have gone 12-0 on "Senior Night" -- their final home game of the season, and have covered nine of those 12 games.  Lay the points with the Owls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies minus the points over St. Joseph's.  The Hawks won a rare conference game their last time out, as they bested Fordham, 73-69.  Unfortunately, the Hawks aren't likely to win tonight, as they're 2-15 SU/ATS their last 17 off a win.  St. Bonaventure will play its final home game of the season tonight, and will attempt to snap a two-game losing streak.  We'll lay the points with the Bonnies, as college teams have cashed 61% since 1990 as double-digit favorites in their final home game of the season, if they were off back to back upset defeats.  Take St. Bonaventure minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Phoenix.  After winning 17 of 18 games, the Raptors have hit a mini-speed bump.  Toronto's lost its last three games, but two of those three games were vs. the 52-9 Milwaukee Bucks, and on the road to the 41-19 Nuggets.  So, it's best not to view the Raptors' glass as half-empty.  Tonight, the Raptors should snap their losing streak, as they'll be facing a Suns team which has gone 10-16 SU and 7-19 ATS its last 26.  Even better:  Phoenix is 3-14 SU and 6-10-1 ATS its last 17 as a home underdog, while the Raptors are an awesome 39-12-2 ATS off back to back losses when priced from -2.5 to -11 points.  Finally, .700 (or better) road favorites, off 3+ losses, have cashed 64% over the last 30 years vs. losing teams.  Lay the points with the Raptors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Arkansas Little Rock.  The Panthers will play their final home game of the season tonight, and they'll look to snap a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  Meanwhile, Arkansas Little Rock comes into tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS wins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the hot Trojans, but consider that teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 62% since 1990 if they were off 3 SU/ATS losses, and their opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take the Panthers.

At 7 pm, in the opening round of the Patriot League Tournament, our selection is on the Loyola Maryland Greyhounds + the points over Lehigh.  This is a rematch of Saturday's game, won by Lehigh, 74-71, at Loyola Maryland.  And the Mountain Hawks also won the season's first meeting here, in Bethlehem.  We'll take the Greyhounds this evening, as they're 37-17 ATS on the road when playing with double-revenge, while Lehigh's 0-4 ATS its last four off an upset road win.  Take Loyola Maryland.

At 7 pm, in the opening round of the Big South Tournament, our selection is on the Charleston Southern Buccaneers minus the points over Presbyterian.  The Buccaneers come into this game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But they should be able to get back into the win column this evening, as they've owned the Blue Hose over the years.  The Bucs have won 20 of the last 25 meetings, including 12-1 their last 13 meetings here, in Charleston.  And the Blue Hose are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS their last 10 post-season games as an underdog.  Finally, the Buccaneers fall into 86-59, 124-91, 43-17 and 112-60 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in the post-season off SU losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the New York Knicks.  New York defeated Chicago here on Saturday night, 125-115.  But it had lost its six previous games (1-4-1 ATS).  I love going against bad teams off victories, and we'll do that here, as we note that double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage of .300 (or less), have covered just 24.0% over the last 30 years if they won at home in their previous game.  That doesn't bode well for New York this evening.  Even worse:  the Knicks are a wallet-busting 0-20 SU and 6-13-1 ATS its last 20 games as a double-digit home underdog, and they're 4-15 ATS their last 19 at home vs. Houston.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over North Carolina State.  We played on the Wolfpack in the season's first meeting, 12 days ago, and were rewarded with an 88-66 blowout win over the Blue Devils.  NC State was a 6-point home underdog in that game, so it covered by 28 points!  For this game, though, we'll lay the double-digits with Duke, as revenge-minded College Basketball teams, off back to back SU losses, have covered 61% since 1990 as favorites of 5+ points, if they lost the first meeting by 15+ points.  Additionally, the Blue Devils are a solid 19-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 12 points in the regular season off a SU loss.  Take the Blue Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Golden State Warriors.  Last night, Golden State pulled off a big upset when it went into Phoenix, and upset the Suns, 115-99, as an 11-point road underdog.  That was just Golden State's 13th win of the season (against 47 losses), and faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins.  We won't make an exception here, and will play against the Warriors as a home underdog tonight.  For technical support, consider that the Warriors are an awful 1-11-1 ATS when playing without rest off a straight-up win.  Additionally, .375 (or worse) NBA home teams have covered just 37% over the last 30 years, if they were off exactly one win (on the road), and were playing without rest vs. a foe off a straight-up loss.  Take the Wizards minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.