Sports Picks & Predictions

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  It seems like ages ago, but the Jaguars won their first game of the season (and their ONLY game this season) when they upset the Colts in Week 1, as a big home underdog.  I expect the Colts to avenge that loss today with a big victory at home.  Indeed, favorites of more than 13 points have covered 86% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Colts minus the points.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Broncos have been terrific as home underdogs, or small favorites over the years.  And especially if their opponent wasn't off a momentum-building SU/ATS win.  In that instance, the Broncos have gone 31-7 ATS at home when not favored by 2+ points, including 21-1-2 ATS when matched up against an opponent with a .625 (or worse) record.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are a dismal 12-22 ATS in their final road game of the season, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  Take Denver to blow out Las Vegas.

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At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Kansas City will be resting most of its better players, so they have been installed as a home underdog today vs. its division rival, the LA Chargers.  We'll lay the points with the Chargers, as underdogs off 5+ wins -- like Kansas City -- are a wallet-breaking 13-33 ATS when installed as an underdog of 3+ points.  And defending Super Bowl champs are a poor 4-13 ATS off back to back wins, if they are an underdog vs. an opponent off a win, including 1-7 vs. division rivals.  Finally, road favorites have covered 63% over the previous 20 seasons in the final week of the season, if they owned a WORSE record than the home team.  Take the Chargers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants over the Dallas Cowboys.  Both of these NFC East division rivals have hopes of making the Playoffs.  And we'll take the homestanding Giants this afternoon.  It's true that Dallas has a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, while the NY Giants are on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But over the last 41 years, road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) are an unsightly 25% ATS vs. foes that were on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak!  Even worse, the Cowboys are 0-16 ATS in their final road game of the season when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of less than 4 points!  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Cavaliers were absolutely annihilated in their previous game -- a 119-99 defeat at Indiana on Thursday.  The Cavaliers had last night off, but Atlanta was in action at Brooklyn, and pulled off a big upset as a 6.5-point underdog, 114-96.  That sets up Cleveland well tonight, as they will be rested against an unrested foe.  And the Hawks are a dreadful 44-85 ATS vs. rested foes off 20-point (or worse) defeats.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Bowling Green.  The Huskies are at home this evening where they hope to get off the schneid "in Vegas," as they're a woeful 0-7 ATS.  They'll host the Falcons, who upset Ohio as a 6-point underdog on Thursday.  By my numbers, their poor performance has led to us getting value in this point spread, and we'll grab the points.  For technical support, notwithstanding their 7-game ATS losing streak, consider that the Huskies are 35-22 ATS long-term off back to back ATS losses, when installed as an underdog in Mid-American conference games.  And NCAA teams have gone 10-0 ATS at home, if they started the season on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, and their opponent was off an upset win.  Take Northern Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Tulsa.  Cincy has lost its last four games, with the last three coming in the favorite role.  The good news for the Bearcats is that NCAA favorites off an upset road loss, and 3 upset losses overall, have cashed 60% over the past 20 years.  Take the Bearcats to blow out Tulsa.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Indiana.  The 4-5 Rebels have been installed as a huge underdog vs. Indiana, which finished #11 in the final CFP rankings, and #7 in the AP Poll.  And, by my numbers, it's an overlay.  It's true that Lane Kiffin's Rebels were upset at LSU to end their regular season.  And that may keep a number of bettors away from the Ole Miss side.  But teams off upset defeats have gone 65.8% ATS in the Bowls since 1981 if they were playing at a home or neutral site, and their opponent wasn't off an upset loss.  That bodes well for Ole Miss on Saturday.  As does the fact that SEC Conference underdogs of +3 (or more) points are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season if they lost their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points with Ole Miss!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over North Carolina State.  The Wildcats were 4-6 on the season, while NC State was 8-3.  Yet Kentucky played the MUCH MORE difficult schedule (comprised wholly of SEC Conference foes), which is why it is favored by a small amount this afternoon.  Indeed, Kentucky's six losses were to such powers as Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.  We'll take the team from the stronger conference, as SEC Conference teams are 73-47 ATS in the bowls when not laying 3+ points, or off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 3-12 ATS their last 15 away from home, including 0-6 ATS when the line was less than 7 points.  Take Kentucky to blow out NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Clemson.  The Buckeyes were provided a lot of bulletin board material from the words of Clemson coach, Dabo Swinney.  And I'm sure the Ohio State team wasn't happy to hear Swinney's thoughts.  But, at the end of the day, when the players take the field, those words stay behind on the bulletin board, and a team's success (or failure) will largely come down to execution.  And over the last decade, it's hard to find a team which is better at execution than three of the four teams in this NCAA Football semi-final (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State).  Those three programs have been heads-and-shoulders above their brethren for years.  And one of the lessons gleaned over the years is that you don't want to give ANY of these team points -- regardless of the talent on the other side.  To wit:  the Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS their last 18 as underdogs, including 13-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points!  (Likewise, Alabama is 12-7-1 ATS its last 20 as an underdog, and Clemson is 33-13 its last 46 as a dog.)  Last year, of course, when these two teams met in the semifinal round, Ohio State did suffer a rare ATS defeat as an underdog (one of the Buckeyes' three ATS losses of their last 18 as underdogs).  But Ohio State was only getting 2.5 in that game.  And it only lost by six.  So, if it was getting the number of points as it is in tonight's game, then it would have covered.  So, yes, Clemson has the much better quarterback, and the better overall team.  But so did most of the last 13 opponents the Buckeyes faced when they were installed as an underdog greater than 3 points.  And Ohio State still managed to cover the spread in each of them.  The bottom line is that there's too much success on the side of the Buckeyes as an underdog (or with any of the NCAA blue bloods) to lay a significant amount of points to them.  Now, it's also true that Ohio State struggled in the Big 10 Championship game vs. Northwestern, and mustered just 22 points in a 12-point win (as a 16.5-point favorite).  But the Buckeyes are a fantastic 53-25 ATS after scoring 24 or less points in their previous game.  Take Ohio State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is the 2nd of a back-to-back match-up here in San Antonio.  The Lakers won the first game on Wednesday, 121-107.  But we'll take the points with the Spurs tonight, as they're 21-4 ATS their last 25 at home when playing with revenge against .550 (or better) foes.  Take San Antonio.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Chicago.  This will be the 3rd time this season we played on Milwaukee after it lost its previous game.  We easily cashed the first two, as Milwaukee blew out Golden State (138-99) and Miami (144-97) after its first two losses.  Now, it gets to take out its frustration on an unrested Chicago Bulls squad.  The Bulls won their game last night in Washington.  But Chicago is 14-31 ATS off a win, while the Bucks are 29-10 ATS in the regular season off a loss.  Lay the double-digits with the Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points over Cal State Fullerton.  The Gauchos will be playing their seventh game of the season, while Fullerton has played just once thus far (a game against non-Division I San Diego Christian).  So, Fullerton may be a bit "behind" UCSB when it comes to execution tonight.  And in this COVID environment, where some programs have gotten late starts, they've been poor ATS when playing away from home, if it was one of their first three games, while their opponent has played at least six games.  Our "less experienced" schools have covered just five of 19 games thus far (including 0-7 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +21 points).  Even worse for Fullerton:  UCSB has started its Big West Conference schedule with two upset losses at Cal Irvine.  But NCAA home teams have covered 70% over the last 31 years off back to back upset road losses to start a conference schedule.  With the Gauchos 8-1 ATS vs. the Titans when laying 6+ points, we'll back the home team on New Year's Day.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Charlotte.  The Hornets come into tonight's game off back to back upsets of Brooklyn and Dallas.  And they were underdogs of +11.5 and +8 points, respectively, in those games.  Unfortunately, NBA teams off back to back wins as underdogs of +8 (or more points), have cashed just 3 of 21 games vs. .470 (or worse) foes.  Take Memphis + the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Miami Heat.  The Mavericks lost here, at home, on Wednesday to Charlotte.  And Dallas was an 8-point favorite in that game.  But, perhaps, that loss should not have come as a surprise.  After all, Dallas exacted revenge in their game previous to that when they blew out the Clippers by 51 points.  So, a letdown was certainly in order.  Now, however, the Mavericks are locked into their best point spread role.  The Mavericks are a powerful 110-63-5 ATS off a loss when they're matched up against an opponent off a win.  And Dallas also falls into a 52-12 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset defeats.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Alabama.  The Irish come into this game off a blowout loss at the hands of Clemson, 34-10.  That was Notre Dame's first loss of the season.  And one of the things I love to do in the Bowls is take teams that haven't lost more than 1 time on the season, if they're an underdog, and off an ATS defeat.  Since 1980, these teams have covered 61.2% in the Bowls.  Additionally, big Bowl underdogs of +16 (or more) points have covered 70% over the past 41 years.  And Bowl teams with defenses that give up 21 or less points have gone 64-37 ATS off a SU loss, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Irish + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Georgia.  The Bearcats are giving up just 16 points per game, and have yet to taste defeat on the season.  And that bodes well for the Bearcats as, in the Bowls, .680 (or better) teams have covered 65.3% over the last 41 years, if they surrendered, on average, less points than their opponent, and were getting 7+ points in the game.  Moreover,  SEC Conference teams have covered just five of 19 Bowls when installed as a favorite, if they won their previous game before the Bowl season.  And American Athletic Conference teams off a SU win have gone 43-22 ATS vs. non-conference foes with a scoring margin of +13 (or better), including 8-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +13.5 points.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Pels are off a 25-point loss at Phoenix, but now fall into a 400-293 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road favorites off road defeats.  Even better:  .345 (or worse) NBA teams have gone 83-136-4 ATS at home if they weren't favored by more than 5 points, and their opponent was off a loss by 24+ points.  Take New Orleans to bounce back tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over New York.  Out of the many surprises so far this season, perhaps none is as surprising as Toronto's 0-3 start.  The 2019 Champs will try to get off the schneid tonight in this "home" game in Tampa.  And Toronto is 17-1 ATS at home in the regular season vs. division rivals when Toronto was favored by less than 10 points.  Lay the points with the Raptors.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  These two teams met on Tuesday, and the Bulls upended Washington, 115-107, as a 6-point road underdog.  But that game as placed the Wizards in 100-57, 165-101 and 213-133 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Additionally, as faithful followers know, I love to go against bad NBA teams off wins.  And the Bulls are a bad team.  Last season, Chicago won just 33.8% of its games.  And it's a dreadful 8-36 SU and 13-31 ATS its last 44 games off a victory. Take Washington.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Gophers are 9-1 this season, with their lone loss coming on the road, at Illinois.  At home, Minnesota is 9-0, with a 7-2 ATS record.  Unfortunately, this game on Thursday afternoon is on the road.  We played against Minnesota in that earlier game at Illinois, and got the $$$ with a 92-65 blowout win.  And we'll play against Minnesota again today in this road game.  Indeed, the Gophers are a wallet-busting 20-58 ATS on the Big 10 road when priced from -1 to +11 points!  Yikes!  And Wisky is 37-18 ATS vs. .810 (or better) Big 10 foes here, in Madison.  Take the Badgers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over San Jose State.  Both teams come into this game off big upset wins in their respective conference championship game.  Ball State claimed the Mid-American Conference title with a 38-28 upset of Buffalo, as 12-point underdogs.  And that was Ball State's sixth straight win, and fourth straight ATS win.  Likewise, the undefeated (7-0) Spartans won the Mountain West Conference for the first time in their history when they upset Boise State, 34-20, as a 6.5-point underdog in the title game.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) Mountain West favorites have been dreadful vs. .500 (or better) non-conference foes when both teams entered the game off a SU win, as the Mountain West has cashed just 25 of 80 games.  That doesn't bode well for San Jose today.  Nor does the fact that bowl favorites of more than 6 points have gone 0-6 ATS off an upset win in their conference title game.  Or that .850 (or better) bowl underdogs of +7 (or more) points have cashed 69% in the bowls since 1980 against foes off SU/ATS wins.  But the clincher is that .800 (or better) bowl teams off an upset win (like Ball State) have gone 12-0 ATS their last 12 when not favored by more than 4 points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Thursday, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Tulsa.  Mike Leach has always been one of my favorite football coaches, with his Air Raid offenses at Texas Tech and Washington State.  This was his first year in Starkville and, although his 3-7 season was his worst since Washington State's 3-9 record in 2014, he was able to lead the Bulldogs to their 11th straight Bowl appearance.  Miss State will face the 6-2 Golden Hurricane, which bookended two losses against Oklahoma State (in their season opener) and Cincinnati (in the AAC Championship game) with a six-game win streak in the middle.  And Tulsa was 7-1 ATS, and covered by an average of 10.5 ppg.  But Leach has been at his best when matched up against opponents with much better records, as he's gone 16-4-1 ATS vs. foes that owned a win percentage at least 40% better than his team, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS if that foe covered the spread for the season by at least 10 ppg.  Even worse for Tulsa:  teams that lost their conference title game have gone 10-25 ATS in their next game against foes that did not lose a title game, including 1-10 ATS when priced as a favorite of 7 or less points!  Finally, the American Athletic Conference has not had great success vs. the SEC, as its teams have gone 1-5 ATS in the Bowls, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 away from home (including a 23-0 loss by Tulsa at Arkansas two seasons ago).  Meanwhile, the SEC has gone 8-1 ATS its last nine as Bowl underdogs.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders + the points over Davidson.  The Spiders were upset at home in their last game, 76-71, by Hofstra.  And Richmond was a 12-point favorite in that ballgame.  But off that defeat, we'll take Richmond to bounce back on the road this evening, as it's 11-1 ATS in conference games off an upset loss, if it failed to cover by 9+ points in that defeat.  And Richmond also falls into a great 70-29 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in conference games off upset losses.  Take Richmond.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Alcorn State Braves + the points over Baylor.  The Bears are undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- and ranked #2 in the country behind Gonzaga.  That's good news for us, as Baylor was my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's NCAA Championship.  But we will go against the Bears today, and take the points with Alcorn State.  The Braves will have an advantage this afternoon, as Baylor had to play less than 24 hours ago vs. Central Arkansas -- a game Baylor won by 37.  Additionally, the Bears fall into a negative 38-82 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back ATS wins, while the Braves fall into a 92-44 ATS system which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Grab the double-digits with Alcorn State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over Chattanooga.  The Moccasins are 9-0 on the season, but they should taste defeat for the first time this afternoon.  Last year, the Paladins swept the season series, 2-games-to-none, and they've won the last 7, by an average of 12.4 ppg.  Moreover, unbeaten, revenge-minded teams, like Chattanooga, with a 9-0 (or better) record, are a horrid 5-24-1 ATS their last 30, including 0-12-1 ATS their last 13, when getting more than 4 points.  Take Furman.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Wisconsin.  Wake Forest ended its season with back to back losses to North Carolina and Louisville.  But both of those were road games; the Demon Deacons were 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home, or on neutral fields this season.  And NCAA teams have gone 34-20 ATS in the Bowls if they lost their last two games away from home to end their season.  Meanwhile, the Badgers ended on an 0-4 ATS run, and they lost three of their last four straight-up.  It's hard to make a case for laying points with Wisconsin, as .666 (or worse) teams have been historically poor in the Bowls when laying more than 7 points (33-61-2 ATS).  And Bowl teams off 4 ATS losses have gone 13-26-1 ATS when priced from +3 to -13 points.  Take Wake Forest + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas St Wildcats minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season their last time out -- a 70-46 blowout of the Jacksonville Dolphins, as a 12-point favorite.  In that game, the Wildcats outshot Jacksonville, 45% to 34%, and outrebounded the Dolphins, 45-22.  We'll take Kansas State tonight, as it falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 411-305 ATS, which plays on certain home teams off wins by 22+ points when not favored in their current game by more than 13 points.  Even better:  the Wildcats are a dominant 34-14 ATS at home when favored by less than 24 points, if they won their previous game by double-digits.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers have burst out to a 3-0 SU/ATS start this season.  But the thing to bear in mind is that the Cavs were underdogs in each of those three games.  Now, for tonight's game vs. the Knicks, the Cavaliers have been installed as a favorite.  And, notwithstanding their current 3-0 record, the Cavs won just 29% of their games last seasons, and are NOT a very good team.  Similar to our play last night against the Atlanta Hawks as a big favorite vs. the Pistons, we're going to fade Cleveland tonight as it cannot be relied up to lay points -- even to teams like the Knicks.  Indeed, last season, Cleveland was a disastrous 0-7 ATS as a favorite (and it won just one of those seven games, straight-up)!  Take New York + the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers won the first of this back-to-back series in Indianapolis, with a 108-107 upset victory on Sunday, which moved their record to 3-0.  But off their upset win, we'll fade Indiana in the rematch, as NBA teams with a W/L Pct > .600 have covered just 51 of 124 off an upset home win vs. foes off an upset loss.  And Boston's 20-11 ATS on the road off an upset loss.  Take the Celtics.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia.  The Raptors are 0-2 SU/ATS after dropping their first two games to the Pelicans and Spurs.  But the Raptors are a solid 58-29 ATS off exactly 2 losses, which bodes well for them in Philly tonight.  Additionally, NBA teams off back to back upset losses to start a season have cashed 62% over the last 41 years.  And, finally, Philly has covered just 3 of 23 as a division favorite vs. foes off an upset loss that don't have a winning ATS record.  Take Toronto + the points tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wofford Terriers + the points over Mercer.  Last year, the Bears upset Wofford not once, but twice, en route to a 12-6 Southern Conference record.  But you know what they say about "paybacks."  And Wofford falls into a 68.1% ATS 'revenge' system of mine which plays on certain teams that were upset by their opponent in their previous meeting.  Additionally, notwithstanding its loss at Mercer last season, the Terriers are still 22-6 ATS their last 28 games away from home vs. Southern Conference rivals.  Take Wofford.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Purdue.  This is a horrible spot for the Boilermakers, who have to travel to Piscataway to face the #14-ranked Scarlet Knights immediately after they fell to Ohio State.  That game snapped Rutgers' 6-game win streak (and 3-game ATS win streak).  And the Knights are an awesome 16-1 ATS at home when priced from -9 to +8.5 points.  Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are a woeful 30-58 ATS as single-digit road underdogs.  Take Rutgers minus the points.

At 5:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Miami Hurricanes over the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Miami was annihilated in its last game, an embarrassing 36-point upset loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys blew out Baylor, 42-3.  On the surface, it may look easy to play on Okie State given the results of the two teams' most recent games.  But consider that teams off a loss by 23+ points have actually covered 71% in the post-season over the past 41 years when matched up against an opponent off a 23+ point victory, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 3 points.  Moreover, Miami's an awesome 12-0 ATS away from home off a loss when it was an underdog of +10 or less points , and its opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Hurricanes in the Cheez-It Bowl.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Jazz were upset, 116-111, at home by the Timberwolves on Saturday night.  And Utah was a 9-point favorite in that game.  Tonight, they're a big road favorite, and we'll lay the points.  For technical support, the Jazz are a solid 67-38 ATS as a favorite of -3 (or more) points off an upset home loss when playing a .250 (or better) opponent, including 18-0 ATS their last 18 if the Jazz didn't own a winning record.  Take Utah minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta's off to a 2-0 start notwithstanding the fact that it won less than 30% of its games last season.  Now, it's a huge home favorite against the 0-2 Pistons.  But Atlanta can't be trusted to lay this number, as it has covered just 23 of 65 as a home favorite of -9 (or more) points.  We'll take the points with Detroit, as NBA home teams that are undefeated on the season (like Atlanta) have covered just 26.0% over the last 31 years if they had a sub-.400 record the previous season.  Take Detroit + the points.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets were favored by 11 points last night at Charlotte, but were upset, 106-104.  Tonight, they're back home in Brooklyn, and the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on Brooklyn to bounce back against the 0-2 Grizzlies.  But NBA home teams off an upset road loss in which they were favored by more than 9 points have covered just 29.6% since 1992 when playing a losing team off a SU loss.  Take Memphis + the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Indiana St. Sycamores + the points over Drake.  The Bulldogs were the first team to reach 10 wins this season after they downed the Sycamores on Sunday, 81-63, here, in Terre Haute.  But we will fade Drake on this Monday afternoon, as revenge-minded Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 137-85 ATS if they lost the meeting earlier in the season by 18+ points, and are not favored by more than 3 points in the current game.  Even better:  NCAA home underdogs off a SU/ATS loss have covered 71% against undefeated teams with an 8-0 (or better) record that both won and covered their previous game by 7+ points.  Take Indiana State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings upset Phoenix, 106-103, last night to move to 2-0 on the season.  The Pacific Division foes will face off in Sacramento once again this evening, and we'll lay the points with the Suns in the rematch.  Sacramento is a poor 16-39 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.  And, finally, road favorites off an upset road loss have covered 70% since 2008 vs. foes off an upset win at home, if their foe also was off back to back wins.  Take Phoenix to blow out Sacramento.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Orlando Magic.  We played (and lost) on the Wizards last night vs. this Magic squad, but will come right back with Washington on this Sunday.  Like last night's game, this will also be played in Washington, D.C., as the NBA has scheduled back-to-back games at the same venue to limit travel in the COVID-19 environment.  The Wizards fall into a 96-51 ATS 'revenge' system of mine which plays on certain teams that were upset at home in their previous meeting.  And teams off a SU loss have covered 61.5% over the last 31 years vs. foes off back to back upset wins to start the season.  Finally, winning teams off back to back upset wins, that covered each of those two games by 10+ points, have gone 117-176 ATS, including 19-48 ATS vs. division rivals.  Take the Wizards.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  We played against both New Orleans and San Antonio in their previous games.  We cashed the Heat vs. the Pelicans, in a 111-98 Christmas Day win, but lost last night with the Raptors, who were outscored 9-0 down the stretch to fall to the Spurs, 119-114.  We will play against Gregg Popovich's crew again tonight, as they're 7-37 SU and 16-27-1 ATS as underdogs of +4 or more points vs. Western Conference rivals.  And they have also covered just 25.8% over the last 31 years on the road vs. .500 (or better) foes off a loss by more than 8 points.  Take the Pelicans.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the LA Clippers.  The Mavericks lost to the Clippers in last year's playoffs, 4 games to 2.  And that series defeat has triggered several of my best NBA Playoff revenge systems, with records of 76-45, 96-51 and 31-19 ATS since 1990.  It's true that Dallas has gotten off to an 0-2 start, while LA is undefeated after its first two games -- both on the road.  But the Mavs are 109-63-5 ATS off a SU loss when playing an opponent off a SU win, including 15-5 ATS when the Mavs lost by more than 20 in their previous game.  And undefeated NBA teams, that won 57+ percent of their games the previous season, have covered their home openers just 33.9% since 1991.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Indianapolis.  After streaking out to an 11-0 record, the Steelers have dropped each of their last three games.  But the last two were both on the road, so I expect the Steelers to rebound at home this afternoon.  Indeed, since Dec. 20, 1981, winning teams have covered 69.0% at home, if they lost their two previous games on the road, and were favored by less than 10 points (or PK).  Take the Steelers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals seemingly did the Jaguars a favor when the upset the Steelers to move the Jaguars into the pole position to draft Clemson's star QB, Trevor Lawrence.  Of course, if the Jaguars upset the Bears this afternoon, those future plans would likely be dashed.  On the surface, it certainly looks like a tall task.  After all, the Jaguars have lost 13 straight games, while Chicago is making a late push for the playoffs.  But there's great risk in laying a lot of points with the Bears.  They have a negative scoring margin for the season.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are a horrid 1-19 ATS their last 20 on the road, when favored by 7+ points, at Game 6 forward, vs. an opponent not off a win.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over the San Antonio Spurs.  The Raptors blew a 57-50 halftime lead against the New Orleans Pelicans in their season opener, and fell by 14, 113-99, at home.  Meanwhile, the Spurs upset Memphis on Beale Street, 131-119.  But off that win, we will fade Gregg Popovich's crew tonight, as the once-reliable Spurs are now a wallet-breaking 1-16 ATS at home off a win since March 20, 2019!   In contrast, over the last two years, the Raptors have been exceptionally reliable with Nick Nurse at the helm.  The Raptors were 53-19 (.736) last season, including a 27-9 record on the road.  Moreover, the Raptors are an awesome 12-1 ATS their last 13 off a loss by more than 11 points.  And their 26-11 ATS off an ATS defeat.  Take Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins upset division rival New England, 22-12, as a 1-point home dog last week.  And they've now been installed as a road favorite at Las Vegas.  We will go against Miami on Saturday night, as non-division road favorites have covered just 35.2% over the last 40 years if they were off an upset win at home over a division rival.  Even worse:  Miami has covered just 9 of 37 games, itself, off an upset win the previous week against a division foe, including 1-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite of more than 2 points.  Take the Raiders + the points as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Indiana.  The Pacers won by 14, 114-107, vs. the New York Knicks on Wednesday, while Chicago was blown out by 20, 124-104, by the Atlanta Hawks.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade Chicago off that dismal performance.  But consider that NBA teams off a loss by 20+ points in their season opener have covered 70% since 1990 when not getting more than 7 points in Game 2.  Even better:  mid-priced NBA road favorites of -4 to -8.5 points have covered just 10 of 35 off a win in their season opener at home, including 1-11 ATS vs. division rivals.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Orlando.  The Magic upset Miami, at home, 113-107, on Wednesday, while Washington lost by an identical score to the 76ers, but covered the spread as a 7-point road underdog.  The silver lining for the Wizards is that NBA teams that lost, but covered the spread in their season opener, have proceeded to cover 67.5% in Game 2 since 2008, including 75% when not favored by 3+ points.  Meanwhile, the Magic have covered just 7 of 23 off an upset home win. and they're also 13-21-1 ATS their last 35 vs. Washington.  Lay the points.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Pistons lost by 10, 111-101, at Minnesota, on Wednesday, while the Cavaliers won their home opener, 121-114, against Charlotte.  But the Cavs were the Eastern Conference's worst team last season, with a 19-46 record.  And NBA teams playing their home opener, like Detroit, have cashed 67% since 1991 if they were off a double-digit loss, and were playing an opponent off a win in its home opener, if that opponent had a worse record the previous season.  Take Detroit minus the points.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks were a losing team last season, but opened their 2020-21 campaign with a road win at Chicago.  They will now play the Grizzlies who lost their season opener at home, 131-119, on Wednesday to the Spurs.  We'll take Memphis at home, as NBA teams have cashed 77% at home since 1991 off a loss in their home opener, if their opponent was off a SU win, and our home team owned a better record the previous season.  Additionally, the Hawks are a poor 11-24 ATS after winning on the road, if the Hawks weren't getting 9+ points in their current game.  Take Memphis on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, in the LendingTree Bowl, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Georgia State.  This is another "offense vs defense" matchup in the Bowls.  The Panthers are the offensive-minded team, as they score 32.7 ppg (against foes that give up 27.7), while the Hilltoppers are the defensive-minded squad, as they give up just 18 ppg (against foes that score 24.1 ppg).  And, as faithful followers know, in College Football, I will take the points with the better defensive team more often than not.  Indeed, post-season favorites of 5 or less points, with defenses that give up more than 3 points than their opponent's defense, have gone 6-29 ATS.  The Hilltoppers come into this game off back to back double-digit blowout wins against Florida International and Charlotte.  And the Hilltoppers are 24-11 ATS off back to back wins, including 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Cajuns come into this game off an upset road win at Appalachian State, and have been installed as a two-touchdown favorite vs. the Roadrunners in this First Responder Bowl game in Dallas, Texas.  But off that upset victory, we will fade the Cajuns on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, favorites of more than 9 points off a road win have gone 2-16 ATS away from home in a bowl game.  That doesn't bode well for Louisiana on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that it's covered just 2 of 8 (and just 9 of 25) as favorites of more than 13 points.  Finally, Sun Belt Conference teams are a horrid 15-38 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Roadrunners + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the LA Clippers.  The Clips opened their season with a "road" win against the Lakers, while Denver lost at home to the Sacramento Kings.  But over the last 31 years, NBA home teams have covered 67% in Game 2, if they lost at home in their season opener, and their opponent was off an upset road win.  Moreover, the Clippers are a poor 7-20 ATS on the non-division road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points, if they were off a SU win.  Take Denver to bounce back on Christmas, and blow out the Clippers.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Buffalo.  Both of these teams come into this Christmas Day game off upset losses.  Marshall was defeated, 22-13, by UAB, as a 4.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Bulls were 5-0, and favored by double-digits in the Mid-American Conference championship game last weekend, but fell by 10 points to Ball State, 38-28.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, NCAA Bowl favorites generally don't bounce back from Conference Championship game blowout losses, as they're 12-28 ATS off a double-digit loss in their Conference Title game.  Even worse:  Buffalo's favored in this game, even though its defense rates poorer than Marshall's.  The Bulls have given up 23.8 ppg (against foes that average 27.7).  And while that's really good, Marshall's has been much better, as it's only given up 12.6 ppg (against foes that average 21 ppg).  We'll grab the points with the Herd, as NCAA Bowl teams -- not favored by more than 10 points -- have cashed 65 of 95 if their defense gave up less than 14.7 ppg, and their defense also gave up at least 5.83 ppg less than their opponent's.  Even better:  if our 'play-on' team (here, Marshall) failed to cover its previous game by more than 8 points, then our 65-30 ATS angle zooms to 14-1 ATS!  Finally, dating back 15 years, Mid-American Conference teams have gone 3-15 SU and 5-12-1 ATS vs. Conference USA foes in the Bowls, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the New Orleans Pelicans.  On Wednesday, Stan Van Gundy's Pelicans upset Toronto to kick off their 2020-21 campaign, while Miami lost as a road favorite against the Orlando Magic.  We'll play on the Heat on Thursday, as they've gone 43-23 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent off an upset win.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Houston.  For the season, the Cougars had a losing record (3-4), a negative scoring margin (-0.28), a negative ATS record (3-4 ATS), and a negative point spread differential (-4.14).  Yet they find themselves hefty favorites this afternoon vs. the Rainbow Warriors.  We will fade Houston, as Bowl favorites (or PK), with a negative scoring margin, and a point spread differential of -1.75 (or worse) have covered a paltry 26.3% over the last 41 seasons.  Even worse:  Houston's defense surrenders north of 32.5 ppg.  Unfortunately, Bowl favorites (or PK) with a defense that gives up more than 31.5 ppg have gone 0-17 ATS their last 17.  Take Hawaii + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Utah State.  In our current COVID-19 environment, many conferences have adapted by scheduling back-to-back games between the same teams, on the same court.  So, after the Aggies blew out the Spartans, 107-62, here on Monday night, they'll face off again today.  And we'll take the Spartans + the double-digits tonight, as teams playing with revenge from a 40-point loss earlier in the season are 89-64-4 ATS their last 157.  And Mountain West Conference underdogs of more than 13 points have gone 109-61 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Kansas City.  After going 6-0 SU/ATS to start the season (all six games were at home), the Billikens were upset on the road by Minnesota, 90-82, on Sunday.  But St. Louis is back home tonight.  And it has always been a strong home team, not just to start this season.  Indeed, the Billikens are 41-19-1 ATS their last 61 at home, and 217-164-4 ATS their last 385.  Additionally, the Kangaroos have covered just 38% as underdogs over the last 30 seasons off back to back wins.  Take St. Louis.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Memphis.  The Owls are giving up just 16.5 points per game (against oppoents that average 22.8), and have a much better defense than do the Tigers.  Memphis surrenders 29.7 ppg (against foes that average 29.4).  Last week, we played on Northwestern against Ohio State, and what I wrote then in my analysis also applies here.  Basically, when wagering on post-season games, it's dangerous to give the much better defensive team a lot of points, as underdogs of 7+ points that surrender at least 7 less points than their opponent have covered 73% over the last 41 years.  Florida Atlantic is 6-0 SU/ATS its last six post-season games, while Memphis is 1-7 straight-up and 0-8 ATS its last eight post-season games.  Take the Owls as a big underdog this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Pepperdine Waves minus the points over Cal Bakersfield.  The Waves were upset, 75-63, as a 2.5-point home favorite on Saturday by UCSB.  But off that loss, we'll take the Waves to blow out the Roadrunners, as Pepperdine falls into a 64% "bounce-back" system of mine.  Even better:  over the last 20 seasons, the Waves have cashed 69% at home off a home upset loss, while the Roadrunners have covered just 20% vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Pepperdine minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over East Tennessee State.  Nate Oats' men were upset here, at Coleman Coliseum, on Saturday by Western Kentucky.  The Tide were favored by 4.5 points, but lost 73-71 on the heels of a goaltending call which provided the final margin of victory.  But off that home loss, we'll lay the big number tonight with the Crimson Tide.  Alabama's a fantastic 29-13 ATS off a home upset loss, while Southern Conference teams have covered just 38% vs. SEC teams off an upset loss.  And Alabama also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off an upset loss.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC Greensboro Spartans minus the points over NC A&T.  The 3-8 Aggies have been installed as a double-digit underdog this evening against their crosstown rivals in this 21st edition of the "Battle for the Boro."  But they're a dismal 0-14 SU and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14 when getting 11 or more points.  And the Aggies also were blown out by the Spartans last season, 83-50.  Even worse for NC A&T:  it may be without leading scorer (and the NCAA's top assist man last season), Kam Langley, tonight, as he's questionable to play.  Regardless of Langley's availability, we're going to fade the Aggies, as they fall into a negative 42-97 ATS system of mine.  Take the Spartans minus the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over Tennessee-Martin.  After starting the season with 4 straight victories, the Rebels were upset, 65-62, at Dayton on Saturday.  And it was the first time the Rebels gave up more than 58 points in a game.  This afternoon, Ole Miss is back home at The Pavilion, where it will welcome a Skyhawks team which is also coming off its first loss of the season.  Tennessee-Martin fell, 81-63, at Western Illinois, as the Leathernecks shot 50% for the game.  Ole Miss is a solid 21-8 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) off an upset loss, while the Skyhawks are a horrid 5-21 ATS their last 26 (and 15-36 their last 51) as a road underdog, including 1-12 ATS when they owned a winning record.  Lay the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors + the points over Murray State.  The Racers were favored by 3 points at home less than two weeks ago against Austin Peay, and won by 30, 87-57.  By my math, the oddsmakers have made too much of an adjustment to set the point spread at roughly the same price on the road.  And especially since Murray State is 4-0 at home, with an average margin of 40 ppg, but 0-2 on the road with a negative scoring margin of -10.5 ppg.  The Governors also fall into a revenge system of mine which is 149-99 ATS.  That angle plays on certain underdogs that have revenge from 20-point (or worse) defeats.  Finally, Murray State is 0-7 ATS its last seven road games off a home win.  Take Austin Peay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Missouri State Bears minus the points over Arkansas-Little Rock.  The Trojans upset Missouri State here last season, 67-66, as a 12.5-point road underdog.  But you know what they say about 'paybacks!'  And the Bears fall into a super 172-119 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 70-32 ATS system which plays on certain home teams, not favored by 3+ points, off back to back wins.  Even better:  the Trojans are a woeful 4-13 ATS when facing a revenge-minded non-conference foe.  Take Missouri State.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Gardner-Webb.  The Runnin' Bulldogs have lost all three of their road games this season, and now have the misfortune of playing the Seminoles, who just dropped their first game of the season -- as a 14.5-point home favorite -- to Central Florida.  But I love FSU to rebound off that upset defeat, as it falls into a 70-37 ATS 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain home favorites after upset losses.  Additionally, ACC Conference teams have covered 62.6% as non-conference favorites of -20 (or more) points off a SU loss (and 76.4% ATS at home if they failed to cover by 10+ in their previous game).  Take the Seminoles.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over South Carolina State.  The Bulldogs are 0-9 SU this season (though they did cover their previous game at Presbyterian), and will be in for a tough task this afternoon in Greenville.  And that's because Furman was upset by Winthrop on Saturday, 87-71, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  That was also the 2nd straight loss for Furman (who were 25-7 last season), so Bob Richey's men will no doubt be happy to see the Bulldogs today so they can take out their frustration.  Furman has excelled in favorite role, and especially when laying a big number, as it is 45-18 ATS when laying more than 8, including 37-10 ATS if Furman owned a winning record, and its opponent had a losing record (and, then, 10-0 ATS in that set if its opponent was off an ATS win).  Take the Paladins minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Appalachian State.  This match-up pits Conference USA against the Sun Belt Conference.  The 8-3 Mountaineers (from the Sun Belt) have been installed as a huge favorite over 4-5 North Texas in this Myrtle Beach Bowl game.  But, as I've often written, it's treacherous to lay a lot of points in the Bowls.  Indeed, underdogs of +16 or more points are now 14-4 ATS their last 18.  Even worse for Appalachian State:  .500 (or better) Sun Belt Conference teams are 2-18-1 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if its opponent is off a SU win.  And, dating back to last season, Appalachian State is now 0-6 ATS its last six games played away from home.  Take North Texas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Wildcats have had an unusually poor start to their season, as they're 3-5, including a 31-point loss (100-69) to #2-ranked Baylor on Saturday.  Their nadir, thus far, was of course their loss to Division II Fort Hays State.  Tonight, they'll face off against the Jacksonville Dolphins, who are 6-3 on the season.  We'll lay the points with K-State, as Big 12 Conference teams are 42-19 ATS as home favorites of more than 9 points after failing to cover the spread by 9+ in their previous game.  And the Wildcats are also 8-0 SU and 6-0 ATS at home after giving up more than 95 points in their previous game.  Lay it.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  Each of these two teams had its four-game win streak snapped last week.  Cleveland fell at home, 47-42, to Baltimore, while the Giants also lost at home, 26-7, to Arizona.  Both of these teams remain in contention for division titles:  New York sits one game behind the 6-7 Football Team, while the Browns are two games behind the 11-2 Steelers.  However, Cleveland's path to the playoffs, as a wild card entrant, is much more secure, as the Browns currently are tied for fifth place in the AFC.  We'll take the points with the home underdog Giants, as NFL home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-division games at Game 14 forward if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  Even better:  NFL home dogs have gone 69-42 ATS in the regular season if they were off a double-digit loss, but had won their four games previous to that defeat.  And, finally, the Browns are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, the Saints were upset on the road at Philly.  But off that upset loss, I love New Orleans to bounce back against Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.  Indeed, in the 2nd half of the season, winning teams have cashed 64% over the last 41 years off an upset loss.  That's one reason I am going with New Orleans in an underdog role.  Another is that the Saints, with Sean Payton as head coach, have gone 57-24-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points.  The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games.  And defending Super Bowl champs are now 0-16 ATS their last 16 games as non-division road favorites vs. .550 (or better) foes, if the defending champs were off a SU win.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Cardinals bounced back off their 38-28 loss to the Los Angeles Rams by blowing out the NY Giants last Sunday, 26-7.  In the process, the Cards improved to 7-6, and are still alive for a post-season berth.  This weekend, they'll face another NFC East division foe, in Philadelphia.  The Eagles pulled off a major upset last week when they stunned New Orleans, 24-21, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  But off that big win, we will fade Philly this week.  Indeed, NFL underdogs of +6 (or more) points off a home upset victory over a .636 (or better) opponent, as a 6.5-point (or bigger) underdog, have generally had letdowns the following week, as they've covered just 12 of 50 games since 1991.  Even better:  if their opponent comes into the game off a straight-up win, then our system zooms to 19-3-1 ATS.  Take Arizona to blow out the Eagles.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles + the points over Xavier.  The Musketeers are undefeated after winning back to back upsets over crosstown rival Cincinnati, 77-69, and the Oklahoma Sooners, 99-77.  Unfortunately, undefeated teams have covered just 36.6% since 1990 as a single-digit home favorite off an upset win by more than 10 points.  Even worse, .850 (or better) teams, not favored by more than 13 points, have covered just 34.8% since 1990 at home off back to back upset wins.  Marquette has won and covered the last four games in this series, and plays this afternoon's game off an upset loss at home to Seton Hall.  And Marquette's a solid 43-27 ATS on the conference road off a SU loss when Marquette wasn't favored by more than 5 points.  Take Marquette + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Detroit.  As of this writing, Lions QB Matthew Stafford is questionable to play on Sunday.  Regardless, we're going to go against the Lions, and lay the points with Tennessee.  Detroit's 5-8 on the season, while the Titans are 9-4.  And the Lions were unable to win at home last week against their division rival, Green Bay.  So, it's difficult to make a case for it on Sunday, in their final road game of the season, against a motivated, non-division foe.  The technicals back this up, as losing NFL teams playing their final road game against winning, non-division foes, have covered just 35.5% over the last 41 years if they lost at home the previous week.  Meanwhile, this will be Tennessee's final home game of the season.  And, with two road games on deck, it takes on added significance for Tennessee, given it's currently tied atop the division with Indianapolis.  Since 1980, winning NFL teams playing their final home game have cashed 63.2% when installed as a double-digit favorite vs. foes off a SU loss.  Lay the points with the Titans.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have been a point spread powerhouse this season, as they're 6-1 ATS.  And we've benefited greatly, as we played on Tulsa in each of its last three games (3-0 ATS), while never going against it this season.  But the Golden Hurricane are in a horrible spot here, as they have to play the AAC Title game on Cincinnati's home field.  They also played here last season, and lost 24-13. which was their fourth straight loss here in Cincinnati (and 2nd straight since each team joined the AAC).  Of course, the fact that Tulsa hasn't won here shouldn't come as a surprise, as the Bearcats have dominated opponents at home.  Cincy's currently riding a 19-game home win streak, and has gone 11-4 ATS its last 15, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Even better for Cincy:  it's 10-0 ATS its last 10 at home when priced from -10 to -21 points against an opponent off a win, and it's 46-24-1 ATS at home since 1990 vs. foes off a win.  But the clincher is that road teams that were on a 4-game (or better) win streak are a horrid 0-8 SU/ATS when playing with revenge in the post-season!  Take the Bearcats to blow out Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Alabama.  The Gators suffered a huge upset loss last week when they fell, 37-34, at home vs. LSU.  And Florida was favored by 24 points in that game!  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Florida, and lay the points with Alabama.  After all, the Crimson Tide currently have the best ATS (net profit) record in the country (tied with Coastal Carolina), at 8-2 ATS.  But great point spread records don't equate with success in Title games, as teams with a .750 (or better) ATS record have only covered 40% of Conference Championship games.  Additionally, .666 (or better) college football underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset conference loss at home, have gone 41-15 ATS.  And NCAA teams that gave up more than 31 points in defeat in their previous game, have covered the spread in 71% of Conference title games.  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers went into Lincoln, Nebraska last week, and upset the Cornhuskers, 24-17, as an 8-point road underdog.  But this is a horrible situation for the Gophers, as the Badgers come into this Saturday afternoon game on a rare 3-game losing streak.  Even worse for the Badgers:  they were favored in each of those games, and scored just 7, 6 and 7 points in those defeats.  But we'll take Wisky to bounce back here, at home, as double-digit home favorites, off back to back SU/ATS losses, have cashed 71% over the last 41 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home team was off an upset defeat in its previous game.  Additionally, this will be Wisconsin's final home game of the season.  And it's 24-13 ATS in its final game at home when matched up against a Big 10 foe, including 8-4 ATS off a SU loss.  Meanwhile, Minnesota is a wallet-busting 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS on the road when getting 11+ points against an opponent off an upset loss.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over LSU.  Last week, the Tigers upset then-No. 6-ranked Florida, 37-34.  And LSU was a 24-point underdog in that game!  Can Ed Orgeron's men make it two-upsets-in-a-row?  I wouldn't bet on it, as defending National Champions are a soft 96-126-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse, if our defending champs pulled off an upset in their previous game, then those teams are a woeful 4-12 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS if they weren't favored by 3+ points in the current game.  That doesn't bode well for LSU on Saturday afternoon.  Nor does the fact that College football home teams have covered just 10 of 35 games off an upset win, if they were an underdog of 20+ points in their previous game.  And LSU is a wallet-busting 2-11 ATS off a road upset win.  It's true that LSU has won the last four meetings by 21, 29, 16 and 17 points.  But Ole Miss is a solid 31-17-1 ATS when playing on the road with revenge vs. an opponent off a win.  And revenge-minded SEC Conference teams, with a .500 (or better) record, are 30-13 ATS as a favorite away from home, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -4.5 points.  Take Lane Kiffin's Rebels to blow out LSU.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Marist.  In their last game, the Jaspers upset Rider, 87-77, as a 1-point home underdog.  Off that win, we'll play on Manhattan this afternoon, as home teams, off double-digit upset home conference wins, have cashed 58% of conference games since 1990 (212-155 ATS) when not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for the Jaspers today.  As does the fact that it's cashed 64.7% over the last 31 years at home off an upset win, if it was favored against a conference foe.  Finally, the Red Foxes have covered just 14 of 41 games off a SU win.  Lay the small number with the homestanding Jaspers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Southern Cal.  There's a saying that it's "better to be lucky than good."  And that might end up applying to the Oregon Ducks, if they can take advantage of their good fortune to be playing in this Pac-12 Championship game.  After all, Oregon finished 2nd to Washington in the Pac-12 North division.  But COVID-19 issues scuttled Washington's plans, so Oregon was tabbed to replace Washington as USC's opponent.  It's true the Ducks have dropped their last two games, while USC is 5-0 straight-up, and has covered each of their last three.  But single-digit underdogs off a straight-up loss are 9-1 ATS their last 10 in Conference Title game.  And the Ducks are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven vs. the Trojans.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats + the points over Rhode Island.  The Rams come into this game off back to back road losses at Wisconsin and at Western Kentucky (though they covered each in defeat to extend their ATS win streak to 4 games).  Meanwhile, Davidson was upset, 63-52, as a 10.5-point home favorite in its last game.  But off that upset loss, we'll back the Wildcats in this underdog role tonight, as teams off double-digit losses, as double-digit favorites have covered 64% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back defeats.  Additionally, Bob McKillop's men are 24-11-1 ATS off a SU loss when not getting more than 3 points in a conference game.  And they're 21-10-1 ATS in competitively-priced conference games with a point spread of 3 points or less.  Meanwhile, the Rams are a poor 5-9 ATS as a home favorite vs. conference foes off upset losses.  And Rhode Island also falls into a negative 13-45 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off 4+ ATS wins.  Take Davidson + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Dixie State.  These two Beehive State schools are located less than an hour apart from each other, and should begin to play with more regularity now that Dixie State has made the jump to Division 1 this season.  Both teams have gotten off to good starts this season.  Dixie is 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS.  The Trailblazers pulled off an upset win in their last game, as they won, 73-70, at Denver, as a 2-point underdog.  But that upset victory has triggered a negative 39% ATS system of mine which goes against certain .818 (or better) teams off upset wins, if they're on the road vs. opponents also off a win.  Like Dixie State, the Thunderbirds have yet to lose against the spread this season, as they're 4-0 ATS.  And they've also cashed 62% at home vs. foes off upset wins.  Even better:  .720 (or better) Big Sky conference teams have cashed 67% of non-conference games (and 71% of games vs. foes off a SU win).  Lay the points with Southern Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Notre Dame.  In their last game, the Irish upset Kentucky, 64-63, as a 7.5-point road underdog.  Can Mike Brey's men make it two-in-a-row?  It's not likely, as Mike Krzyzewski's men fall into one of their best situations tonight.  The Blue Devils come into this game on an 0-4 ATS run, including an 83-68 blowout upset loss at the hands of Illinois eight days ago.  But the Dukies are a spectacular 26-8-1 ATS in the regular season when they were on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 18-3 ATS as a favorite vs. ACC schools.  The Blue Devils are also 6-0 SU/ATS vs. the Irish since 2017, and 18-5 ATS off a double-digit upset defeat.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  Wayne Tinkle's Beavers have gotten off to a rough start this season, as they've lost their last three games -- all of the upset variety.  That streak should end this afternoon, as home favorites of more than 6 points -- off exactly 3 losses -- have covered 65% since 2000 if they were favored in each of those three defeats.  Even better:  Texas San Antonio has covered just 10 of its last 33 away from home when installed as an underdog.  Take Oregon State to blow out the Roadrunners.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats minus the points over Charlotte.  In this Mecklenburg County battle, we'll side with the homestanding Wildcats against the 49ers.  Even though Davidson's just 20 miles from Charlotte, this still counts as a road game for the 49ers.  And it will be Charlotte's first road game of the season.  Unfortunately, the road has not been kind to Charlotte, as it has gone 13-45 SU and 18-39 ATS since January 2016.  But that's not the worst part.  When the 49ers have been installed as a dog of more than 8 points, they've gone 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS on the road!  Lay the double-digits with Davidson.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers are unbeaten, at 6-0, as they enter Big 10 Conference play.  But the Gophers were double-digit favorites in five of those six games, so the reality is that they're really not been tested.  Here, they're installed as a mid-sized road underdog against a 4-2 Illinois team ranked #13 in the country.  Over the last 20 years, teams that were undefeated in their non-conference games prior to starting conference play have covered just 41% as underdogs of more than 5 points in their first conference game.  Even worse for Richard Pitino's troops:  they're a dreadful 12-34 ATS their last 46 Big 10 conference road games when installed as a single-digit underdog (or PK).  And they're 16-36 ATS their last 52 vs. Illinois (including 0-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points).  Take the Illini minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over Houston Baptist.  The Owls were upset here, at home, 72-61, on Sunday by New Mexico.  But off that double-digit upset defeat, the Owls now fall into several of my better bounce-back systems, including one with a 58-21 ATS record.  It's true that these two teams met a week-and-a-half ago -- a game which Rice won by 22, 86-64, as a 9.5-point favorite.  And it's also true that I will often take teams to avenge such blowout losses.  But it's hard to make a case for the Huskies this afternoon.  After all, they've lost their three road games this season by 24, 23, and 25 points.  And the fact that they come into this game off a SU win, while Rice checks in off an upset loss is enough for me to ignore the revenge angle.  Finally, the Owls have cashed 63% as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points off an upset home loss.  Lay the points with Rice.

At 7 pm, on the CBS Sports Network, our selection is on the George Washington Colonials minus the points over William & Mary.  GW comes into this game off back to back upset losses at UMBC and at Delaware, while William & Mary also comes into tonight's game off a loss at Old Dominion.  We'll lay the points with the Colonials, as home teams have cashed 62.3% since 1990 in non-conference games after being upset in two straight games.  And George Washington is a super 32-16 ATS off a loss when priced from -6.5 to -16.5 points, if their opponent is also off a defeat.  Take George Washington minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers lost for the first time last week, 23-17, as a 5.5-point favorite, after 11 straight wins to open the season.  And it was the (now 5-7) Washington Football Team which handed Pittsburgh its first loss -- and at Heinz Field, no less.  In stark contrast, the Bills played, perhaps, their best game of the season, as they went out to the west coast (Arizona) to play a good 49ers team, and upset them, 34-24, as a 2-point underdog.  That was the first time the Bills won as an underdog away from home since the last time these two teams met (Dec. 15, 2019), when Buffalo won 17-10 at Pittsburgh.  Off those two results, we'll play on Buffalo as a small home favorite on Sunday night.  For technical support, consider that, in the last four weeks of the season (and the Playoffs), NFL home favorites off a SU/ATS win, in which they covered by more than 10 points, have cashed 64.3% vs. road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 10 points.  And the Steelers are an atrocious 8-26-1 ATS on the non-division road, if they owned a .727 (or better) win percentage, and weren't getting 3+ points.  Take the Bills.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the Atlanta Falcons.  To say the Chargers played last week the worst game of this current NFL season would not be an overstatement.  After all, they were favored by 2.5 points against New England, but lost 45-0.  Not only was that the worst performance -- relative to the point spread -- of any team this season, but it was just the second time since 1980 that an NFL favorite failed to cover the spread by more than 46 points.  After the game, the Chargers' players were saying all the right things.  Even QB Justin Herbert defended his coach's much-maligned decision to keep his rookie signal caller on the field throughout the blowout since, as he put it, he just wants to "be out there and give everything [he has]."  I believe Los Angeles will bounce back strong off that debacle.  And, for technical support, consider that NFL home underdogs (or PK), off a 35-point (or worse) defeat, have gone 50-29-2 ATS.  Additionally, Atlanta is 1-7 ATS its last eight as a road favorite.  And losing teams (like the Falcons) are a soft 17-33-1 ATS the last four weeks of the season as road favorites vs. foes off losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over New Mexico.  Rice is off to a perfect 4-0 start this season, and is 2-0 ATS in their two lined games.  Meanwhile, this will be the Lobos first game of the season, as COVID has greatly impacted their program.  Even worse, the state of New Mexico has issued an order which prohibits the team from practicing or playing games within the state.  So, UNM has created a "home away from home" in West Texas, and has been scrimmaging non-division I opponents like South Plains College and Lubbock Christian University.  Whether such scrimmages will have prepared the Lobos for their first Division I game of the season this afternoon remains to be seen, but we will bet against it.  One reason is that the Lobos have been dreadful on the road over the last few seasons, even without the COVID-related distractions.  Dating back to 2015, New Mexico is 26-60 SU away from home, and 31-52 ATS, including 16-40 ATS vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss.  And Rice is 27-15 ATS as a single-digit favorite vs. non-conference foes.  Take Rice minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on North Carolina-Greensboro minus the points over Norfolk State.  In its last game, NC Greensboro was upset, 85-80, by Coppin St, as a 21.5-point road favorite!  That was the biggest upset loss sustained on an opponent's home court in the last 31 seasons.  And that was also the 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS) suffered by NC Greensboro.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as this is a great bounce-back spot vs. Norfolk St., which won and covered last Monday vs. Hampton.  For technical support, consider that home teams have covered 64% since 1990 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite away from home when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a straight-up win.  Take NC Greensboro.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 5-4 on the season, and enter this Commonwealth rivalry game on a 4-game win streak (and 5-game ATS win streak), while the Hokies have lost their last four games SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot underdog Cavaliers.  But consider that road teams off a SU win, that were also on a 3-game ATS win streak, have covered just 50 of 124 conference games against foes off a SU loss, that were on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  And if our road team owned a winning record, and was an underdog of 7 or less points, then our road teams have gone 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fairfield Stags + the points over Iona.  These two teams played last night, and the result was not pretty for the Stags, as they shot just 27% for the game, and were annihilated 70-42.  Last night, Fairfield was a 4-point home underdog; tonight, the line has been adjusted upwards by a few points to better reflect last night's score.  For some, it won't be enough of an adjustment, but for me it is, as I believe Fairfield will play a much better ballgame tonight.  For technical support, the Stags fall into a 90% 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain teams off 20-point (or worse) losses.  And they also fall into a 63.5% revenge system of mine which plays on certain underdogs of +3 (or more) points that suffered a bad loss to its opponent earlier in the season.  Take the Stags + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Boise State.  The Cowboys were upset at home, 17-16, by New Mexico in their last game.  And Wyoming was favored by more than two touchdowns!  But off that horrible game, we'll take the Cowboys to bounce back on Saturday as a big home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 30 seasons, NCAA home underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 12, have cashed 73%.  And Wyoming's also cashed 75% since 1980 as a conference home underdog off an upset loss.  Take the points with Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Florida State.  The Blue Devils were shut out, 48-0, at home by Miami last weekend, which was their 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS).  But conference road underdogs off home shutout defeats have bounced back to cover 57% over the last 41 years.  Likewise, Florida State comes into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  However, that's not too surprising, as it's been several years since the Seminoles have been a good point spread team.  And they've been especially poor when matched up against an ACC conference rival which wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  Now, if Florida State was playing a conference foe which DID win and cover its previous game, Florida State has actually had a winning ATS ledger in those games, as those opponents tended to suffer letdowns.  But when its ACC opponent DIDN'T win and cover its previous game, then Florida State is a horrid 29-59-4 ATS.  But that's not the worst part.  If the Seminoles were favored by 17 points or less (or PK), then they've gone 10-40-3 ATS.  Yikes!  Take Duke + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Gardner-Webb.  The Panthers are off to a solid 3-1 start after coming back from an early 10-point deficit to upset Northwestern, 71-70, in Evanston, on Wednesday.  The Panthers showed a lot of moxie and competitive spirit on the road, as they trailed for all but the last 5.6 seconds of the game, before Justin Champagnie's game-winning dunk gave them the final margin of victory.  The key for Pitt was its tough defense, as it held the explosive Wildcats to more than 31 points below their scoring average.  And they're getting terrific offensive production across the board, as they're the only ACC school with three players ranked among the ACC's Top 10 in scoring.  Those players are Au'Diese Toney (18.3 ppg), Xavier Johnson (18.0) and Champagnie (18.3).  And Champagnie is also the only ACC player who is averaging a double-double, as he has pulled down 11 rebounds a game to lead the entire conference.  This afternoon, Jeff Capel's men will welcome the Bulldogs to the Steel City, and the Bulldogs played two ACC member schools last season, and lost by 16 (N. Carolina) and 27 (Virginia Tech) points.  We'll lay the points with Pitt, as I believe the momentum gathered from Wednesday's game will carry the Panthers forward at home today against an overmatched Big South conference school.  Take Pitt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  Last week, Miami went into Durham, and shut out Duke, 48-0, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Suffice it to say, when a college football team shuts out its opponent on the road, then it's playing really well.  And one of the last things I will ever do is step in front of a team which just pitched a road shutout.  Indeed, these teams have gone 192-128-9 ATS in the regular season since 1980 (60%), including 18-1 ATS their last 19 when favored by 11 points or less, and off a win by 34+ points.  Take Miami to blow out North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.