Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Wiseguy NBA Monster Line Mistake on Nets +8
The Nets are catching way too many points here. They have already gotten their feet wet since the break while Dallas will be a little rusty in its first game back. The last time Devin Harris faced his former team he dropped 41 on them and I expect him to show them what they've been missing again tonight. NJ is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season, winning by an average score of 100.1 to 95.3. Dallas is just 1-8 ATS in home games in non-conference games this season, losing by an average score of 98.6 to 98.8. The Nets will have an excellent shot to win this one outright. Take the points!

3* CBB Public Massacre on Colorado State +9
Odds makers have overvalued the Utes here against a CSU team that will get up for this one. Utah is just 4-13 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game since 1997. The Utes are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The public is all over the Utes here and it is going to get burned.

3* CBB Underdog Shocker on Fordham +25.5
After getting blown out by 30+ by Xavier, expect Fordham to play a whole lot tougher tonight against a less explosive Temple team. Fordham has won 2 of the last 3 against Temple. Plays on a road team (FORDHAM) - after allowing 85 points or more 3 straight games are 27-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points!

5* Wiseguy Mountain West Conference GOTY on New Mexico +7
New Mexico won the first meeting by 19 points at home earlier this season and I like the Lobos to challenge the Cougars again tonight so we'll take the points here. While BYU is 11-2 at home, it is just 4-9 ATS in those games and odds makers have overvalued the Cougars at home again here. New Mexico is 12-3 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons and 17-5 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. The Lobos are also 8-2 ATS in conference play this season while BYU is just 5-5 ATS in conference play. Take New Mexico!

3* SUREFIRE on Austin Peay/Jacksonville St OVER 149
AUSTIN PEAY is 15-2 OVER in all lined games this season, 9-0 OVER after allowing 80 points or more this season, and 9-0 OVER after playing a game as favorite this season. JACKSONVILLE ST is 7-0 OVER after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. These teams put up 166 points in the first meeting and I expect another high scoring affair tonight.

4* Major NBA BEST BET on T-Wolves/Wizards UNDER 202.5
Washington is not the same high scoring team it has been in the past but that has yet to sink in for the public. The books are begging for overs wagers tonight but we won't bite. When teams are well rested, they play better defense and the Under is 6-1 in the Timberwolves last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Washington is 16-6 UNDER versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season and Minnesota is 16-6 UNDER in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under tonight.

4* Major Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Kent State -6.5
Ohio is an awful 2-9 on the road this season and I have the Bobcats getting crushed by at least 10 points tonight. The Bobcats are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Golden Flashes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less and 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Tuesday games. The Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Kent St. Lay the number!

5* Wiseguy CBB Bounce Back GOTM on Charleston pk
Charleston won the first meeting this season by 8 and won at Appalachian State by 5 a season ago. Charleston returns all 5 starters from that team while Appalachian returns just 3. We are getting excellent value here with Charleston as a pick as it would almost certainly be favored by a couple points if it hadn't lost at home to the Citadel last game. Charleston has been a good road team, 8-3 this season, which includes a win at Davidson. The Mountaineers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Charleston is also 19-8 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997. Take the Cougars!

3* Top 5 Tango on Pitt +3.5
With Dyson out, a slumping UConn offense gets handed a major blow against a Pitt team hitting on all cylinders. UConn hasn't scored over 69 points in 4 straight games but its defense has been able to shut down the opposition. The Huskies will have to be able to score tonight against a Pittsburgh team which matches up with them very well. Pitt has won 5 in a row, all by double digits, while scoring 85 or more points in 4 of those games. Pitt is 7-2 on the road this season and knows it needs this one to have a chance at the Big East title. The Huskies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and the Panthers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings at UConn. There is a big target on the back of No. 1 ranked teams. Pitt found that out first hand. UConn is the latest No. 1 to fall tonight.

5* Wiseguy CBB GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake -1.5
With Illinois State without a couple key players, namely starting PG LLoyd Phillips, the Red Birds don't stand a chance against a Drake team which took them right down to the wire on the road earlier this season. The Red Birds have really struggled against Drake, going 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Drake. The Redbirds are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Missouri Valley while the Bulldogs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. While Drake has had its share of road troubles, it remains rock solid at home and after losing as a road favorite at Indiana State, I expect the Bulldogs to return home with revenge on the brain. Drake won by 6 here last season and by 30 in a neutral court game and the key, once again, for a big win will be Drake's ability to cash in from deep. Illinois St. is 1-8 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons and 1-10 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Drake is 17-4 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting percentage defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, Drake is 13-4 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take Drake at home!

5* Wiseguy WAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Boise State +4.5
Boise State is 11-1 at home this season and will be primed and ready to hand Utah State its first WAC loss tonight. The Public is all over the ranked Aggies and they will get burned. The Aggies are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less while the Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less. The Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings while the Aggies are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points!

3* SUREFIRE on UCF +2
The Knights are not getting the respect they deserve here and certainly should not be catching points at home. The Golden Knights are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Conference USA. The Golden Hurricane are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take UCF.

4* Major CBB Rivalry Game of the Month on Cal -6
This is one of the greatest rivalries in sports and it doesn't get nearly enough attention with Carolina/Duke catching all the headlines. I like the Bears by double digits today as they have been unstoppable at home this season at 14-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in home lined contests. Stanford won the first one by 6 at home early in the Pac-10 season but since it has been Cal playing the much better ball. Cal is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, winning by 12.4 ppg in these spots. Cal has its revenge tonight.

4* Major Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Xavier -28.5
Xavier has lost 2 in a row, something it didn't think would happen all season. Its last defeat was by double digits at Dayton. That puts the Musketeers in a very bad mood today and a terrible Fordham team unfortunately plays the role of punching bad. This number looks large, but when you consider that Xavier has already won at Fordham by 26 and blew out a St. Louis team 70-44 that just beat Fordham by 30, it is very manageable. We'll lay the points.

3* SUREFIRE on La Salle +6
This rivalry matchup will go right down to the wire do I'm taking the points. La Salle is 16-6 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons, losing by just 4.4 ppg on average in these spots. St. Joe's is coming off an emotionally and physically brutal home loss to Temple and it is just 5-15 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival since 1997. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Ivy League Total of the Year on Dartmouth/Columbia UNDER 121
Dartmouth has gone under in 4 straight and 7 of its last 8 lined games. Columbia has gone under in 3 of its last 4. 3 of the last 4 matchups between these teams have gone under as well. Columbia is 12-0 UNDER as a favorite over the last 2 seasons - the average total points scored in these games was 115. Columbia is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 8-0 UNDER in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 2 seasons, and 6-0 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Dartmouth is 8-0 UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=42% of their shots over the last 3 seasons and 7-0 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. We'll take this 51-0 Angle to the bank tonight!

4* Major NBA "TOTAL" Bailout on Blazers/Warriors UNDER 217.5
This line has been jacked up because of Golden State's 144-point performance last time out but the Warriors are playing a Blazers team tonight that only allows 96.8 points per game on the road this season. The Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings and 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State. The Under is 7-3 in Warriors last 10 overall, 5-2 in Warriors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 6-2 in Warriors last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Under is 7-3 in Trail Blazers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

5* Wiseguy Pac-10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon +11.5
Oregon has lost by 9 or fewer in 4 straight games and these 11.5 points are like catching 15 against the Cougars because of their slow down style of play which only averages 57.8 ppg at home. Oregon did not show up at all in the first meeting and lost by 12. This is a game the Ducks believe they can win and I do too. While Washington State has had some good teams in recent years, Oregon has enjoyed playing there. The Ducks are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at Washington State. State is 2-8 ATS in home lined games this season and just 1-7 ATS as a home favorite or pick this season. Bet the Ducks.

4* Major Top 25 Tango (ESPN) on UCLA -1.5
It took ASU overtime to win at UCLA and the best team in the west will not be denied in tonight's rematch. UCLA has won 4 of the last 5 and is 8-3 in the last 11 at ASU. UCLA is 13-4 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1997 and 6-0 ATS in road games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take UCLA!

5* Wiseguy Western Conference GOTM on Jazz +3
With tired legs having played last night, I like the Jazz, which are 20-6 at home this season and 57-10 over the last 2, to take down the Lakers. A terrible road loss at Golden State prior to this one will fuel Utah's fire. We'll play on a home team (UTAH) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. Teams are 49-14 ATS in these spots the last 5 seasons. Take the points!

4* Major CBB Upset of the Week on Baylor +4
The entire world is on Oklahoma tonight and that has the books looking to cash in big with Baylor. Baylor is a much better team than it has shown and will get up for the No. 2 Sooners like no other game this season. Everything about this one says Oklahoma and the books know that. That is what has made it so easy to trap the public. OU has been lucky to come away with wins in each of its last 4 games now and I fully expect the Bears to hand OU its first Big 12 loss tonight. The Sooners are 19-40-3 ATS in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Baylor is 11-3 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the points!

3* SUREFIRE on Purdue -10.5
Off back-to-back road defeats, the Boilermakers will be out for revenge at home tonight. It also does not help Penn State's chances that it beat Purdue early in the conference season before the Boilers were at full strength. The last time Purdue returned home after consecutive road games, it crushed Michigan 67-49 as an 11.5-point favorite. We'll lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Letdown GOTY on Knicks +4.5
I will fade the Warriors in a huge letdown spot tonight. The Warriors are coming off a huge win over Utah and will fall victim to a hungry Knicks team which has now lost 4 straight close games. NY plays the run and gun style and was able to beat the Warriors at home 138-125 earlier this season. I expect a similar result here. NY is 14-3 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season and 8-1 ATS after playing 5 consecutive games as an underdog this season. Let the letdown systems begin: Golden State is 4-13 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, 1-8 ATS off a home win scoring 110 or more points this season, and 1-10 ATS off a home win this season period. Bet the Knicks!

4* Major CBB Blowout of the Week on Minnesota -17.5
Off back-to-back road losses, the Gophers will be out for blood tonight against a Hoosiers team that is losing by an average of 19.1 ppg on the road this season. The Golden Gophers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games while the Hoosiers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Minnesota wins this won by 20+.

3* SUREFIRE on Loyola Chicago +4.5
Loyola has had some disappointing defeats this season but they have shown promise with a big home win over Wisconsin Green Bay speaking volumes. They'll be up for this one tonight while Wright State is going to have a hard time getting up after having high hopes of beating Butler and watching themselves get crushed for a second time this season. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall while the Ramblers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss. The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

3* SUREFIRE on Nets +5.5
The Nets played the Spurs to a 3-point game on the road on January 23rd and they have an excellent opportunity to get the outright win tonight. The Nets will be in bounce back mode off a bad loss at Orlando while the Spurs find themselves in a letdown spot following a big win over Boston. The Spurs are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference and 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic. The Nets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Take the points.

3* Big East BASH (ESPN 2) on Villanova -4.5
Marquette's confidence took a hit when it endured its fist conference loss of the season at USF last game. Now I think you'll start to see some more losses follow including tonight against a red hot Nova team. This is a revenge game with Nova having lost at Marquette earlier in the season and I like the Cats to have their revenge at home where they are 12-1 on the season. Marquette is 0-7 ATS versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Nova is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season and 6-0 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. Take the Wildcats!

3* ESPN Big Monday SUREFIRE on Mizzou -4
The public is jumping on the ranked Jayhawks here but they are making a big mistake. Mizzou is a veteran club with 4 starters returning and will look to exact some revenge on the defending national champs for sweeping them a season ago. Mizzou is a tough place to play so it comes as no surprise that it is 15-5 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. It is also 6-0 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Jayhawks are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Missouri. Lay the points!

3* SUREFIRE on Memphis -2
Memphis has won 3 of 4 SU and ATS and I like its chances again at home tonight with CP3 and Tyson Chandler out of the New Orleans lineup. With New Orleans taking on Boston next, we'll catch them looking ahead here. The Hornets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Grizz at home.

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog of the Month on Bucks +6.5
This one is all about the numbers. Houston struggles on the road, mostly because of its methodical style of play which does not puts teams away. Because of that, the Rockets have not won a game on the road by more than 4 points since before Christmas. The Bucks are a solid 14-9 at home and will be up to the challenge tonight. The Bucks are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. the NBA Southwest while the Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. We'll take the points!

3* SUREFIRE on Clippers +1.5
The Clippers are in an upswing while the Bobcats in a downswing. We'll take the team on the up here. The Bobcats have lost 5 straight and now must play back-to-back against a team that has punished each of its last 2 opponents. Charlotte is only 3-8 straight up in the second of back to back games this season and the road team is on a 7-0 ATS in this series. Take the Clippers!

4* Major Southern Conference GOTM on Furman +8
Furman's numbers look horrendous on the season, but the thing to look at is what its done lately. With back-to-back wins and 5 straight covers, it is playing its best ball of the season so we'll gladly take these points. The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite while the Paladins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Take the points!

3* Late Night NBA Bailout on Warriors +1.5
The Jazz are a terrible road team and they will not win back-to-back games on the road here against a Warriors team that has no trouble scoring the rock. Utah is 11-23 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and 4-16 ATS in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 22-8 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 10-2 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Take the points!

4* Major NBA Monster Line Mistake on Kings +7
The Thunder do not deserve to be this large of a favorite, especially not in this letdown spot after beating the Blazers. OKC has only been a favorite this large one other time this season and Memphis tied them at the end of regulation. The Grizz were burnt in OT but my point is that the books were 7 points off with that line. The Kings have an excellent shot at winning here and I'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA National TV GOTY on Cavaliers -4
It's been a great run by the Lakers on this road trip but they will finally run out of gas today. LA won round won at home, but it will not take road two where the Cavs are 23-0 SU and 18-5 ATS this season. Cleveland is one of the few teams in the NBA that has had great success against the Lakers going 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 and a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home during the span. In the first meeting with LA this season, the Cavs were playing short handed. They are back at near full strength now and this will be a completely different game. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Pound the Cavs!

4* Major MVC GOTM on Creighton +2.5
UNI has been getting by by the skin of its teeth. It was down 8 late against Bradley before catching fire from 3. Its luck runs out today. Creighton played UNI to a 3-point game in the first meeting that it easily could have won and I like the Jays here as they are one of the few teams that have had great success in Cedar Falls. Creighton is 4-1 SU and ATS in all games in this matchup the last 3 seasons, 2-0 SU and ATS at UNI the last 2 seasons and 8-3 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings at UNI. Creighton is 14-4 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Top 25 Tango (ESPN) on Gonzaga -4.5
I love Gonzaga here with Memphis having to make the long cross-country trip. While Memphis has been getting after it on defensive, it has been offensively challenged at times. Pargo and Bouldin are too good at handling the rock to cough it up enough times to get the Tigers a win here. Tennessee is a very similar team to Memphis and the Bulldogs have handled it twice. What has Gonzaga done against scrappy defensive teams? It is 11-3 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season after 15+ games. The average score was GONZAGA 78.9, OPPONENT 67.2. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Total of the Month on T-Wolves/Rockets UNDER 200.5
Houston plays exceptional defense at home and after losing on the road to lowly Memphis it will be lock down city tonight to keep this one under. Houston is 41-26 UNDER in home games over the last 2 seasons and 12-3 UNDER in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons, holding its opponents to just 85.9 points in these spots while scoring just 97.1. Pound the Under.

3* SUREFIRE on UCF -1.5
ECU is just 4-16 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997, losing by an average score of 67.5 to 75.4 in these spots. UCF is 7-1 ATS against conference opponents this season. After a terrible blowout loss at home to Houston, UCF comes storming back here.

3* SUREFIRE on Utah -6
Utah beat Wyoming 91-67 in the first meeting this season and it has another double digit win in it here. Utah is the far superior team and the fact that Wyoming is unbeaten at home gives the Utes the incentive to hand the Cowboys their first home loss. The Utes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or less. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less are 38-14 ATS since 1997. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy CBB Underdog of the Year on Colorado +21
Huge System Play: Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 41-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Colorado has not been blown out in five straight games and it took Kansas down to the wire on the road. Colorado has covered the spread in 5 straight and it is still isn't getting the respect it deserves by the books. Take the points.

4* Major ESPN Late Night MONSTER on Warriors +9.5
The Warriors just beat the Suns by 12 points at home two days ago. While Phoenix is in a bounce back spot, odds makers are asking the Suns to lay too many. The Suns have lost 8 of 12 and are only 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games and yet this team continues to be overvalued. The Warriors are not scared of Phoenix because its defense is bad and that allows them to score at will. The big key here is Golden State's ability to knock down three point shots. Phoenix is 5-15 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season, actually losing against these teams by 2.4 points on average. Phoenix is also 3-15 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons. Take the points!

5* Wiseguy NBA Public Massacre of the Month on Thunder +4.5
Portland is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games while OKC is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 home games and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 as a home dog. The Thunder are playing much better basketball than they were early on and this team is still being way undervalued because the public continues to fade away. The books are licking their chops with the public piling on Portland tonight. We'll go against the grain and pick up an easy winner.

3* SUREFIRE on Pacers +6.5
I know the Pacers just played last night, but I like their chances against the Magic tonight. Orlando played an emotionally charged game last time out in the wake of Nelson's injury, but I don't see the Magic reacting so strongly in their first road test without their starting PG. Indy has lost 3 straight and is playing one of the best road teams in the NBA and is only catching 6.5. I smell a rat. Orlando has blown the Pacers out in both home games this season, but when it came to Indy, it only won by 2. The Pacers are an offensively talented team and hungry for a win and that's why the books don't think Orlando can take it to them on the road tonight. Indy is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season, 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season, 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) off a road loss this season, and 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. Take the points.

4* Major CBB Game of the Night on MTSU -2
MTSU has the best player in the league in Desmond Yates and a team that is superior in size and athleticism to Denver. Also, it has an excellent chance to win the Sun Belt and it will not let Denver be a road bump on its way to doing so tonight. MTSU has won 3 in a row SU and ATS in this series, including a 7-point win at Denver a season ago. The Blue Raiders are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Lay the number!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 204.5
Plays under on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days are 22-6 the last 5 seasons. We only saw 175 points scored between the teams in LA in the X-mas game and I expect another low number here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Rivalry GOTY on Celtics -6
This is a huge revenge game for Boston after the Christmas Day loss in LA and the Celtics catch LA in a great spot. LA has played a lot of games in not very many nights and this one will be played back-to-back. The loss of Bynum also hurts LA against a Celtics team with superior interior depth. Garnett will be rested up and ready to make a statement after missing the last 2 games. Defensively, Boston has been at its best against the best in the NBA and you will see that again tonight. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 12-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Bet Boston!

3* Big 12 SUREFIRE on Texas Tech +12.5
The books are giving the Red Raiders too many here. Oklahoma State has lost 4 of 5 as its defense has been non-existent and the Cowboys will get caught looking ahead to dates with Kansas and Texas coming up next. 4 of the last 5 meetings in this matchup have been decided by single digits and both teams return 4 starters from teams that played each other in a pair of close contests last February and March. Take the points.

4* Major Big East BLOOD BATH of the Week on Villanova -2.5
The Cats are rolling having won 4 of their last 5 by 9 points or more. Their only loss during that stretch was by 6 points at UConn. Providence just lost at UConn by 30+. Nova has covered the number in 5 straight and fits into a strong system here: Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VILLANOVA) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 70-36 ATS since 1997. Take Nova.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Month on Pistons -4
Detroit has lost back-to-back games to two of the best teams in the NBA and has had 3 days to think about it. The Pistons will wash the sour taste of defeat out of their mouth in a big way tonight. Detroit has won 5 straight against the Heat and it will be hungry for another big win tonight. The Heat are 13-32-3 ATS in their last 48 games following a SU win and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. I have hit all 3 of my NBA GOTM plays this season, so let your books have it with #4.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout of the Week on Clippers/Magic UNDER 198
The Clippers have not scored over 95 points in their last 6 games and they face a team allowing only 91.4 ppg at home this season tonight. Also, the loss of starting Magic PG Jameer Nelson affects this offense greatly. Don't expect the Magic to really be running up the score of many opponents with their engine out. Orlando is 9-1 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Both matchups at Orlando the past 3 seasons have gone Under as well. Bet the Under.

3* Atlantic 10 SUREFIRE on St. Louis -1.5
Plays on a favorite (SAINT LOUIS) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 22-5 ATS the past 5 seasons. St. Louis is 10-2 at home this season and after spending back-to-back games out on the road will be happy to get back in its own building tonight.

4* Major NBA Fool's Gold of the Month on Bucks +4.5
I'll fade the Nets at home tonight catching too many points. Yes, the Bucks lost Redd for the season, but forward Charlie Villanueva is more than picking up the slack. NJ is banged up as well with Vince Carter not at 100% and Yi, Bobby Simmons, and Najera won't play. NJ has owned this matchup and that is why this line is inflated, but Milwaukee did beat the Bucks back on January 9th and that gives them a bunch of confidence heading into this one. NJ has been fool's gold at home as it is just 9-15 SU and ATS. Milwaukee is 29-20 ATS in all games and 16-11 ATS on the road. Here's the key: NJ is 3-14 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 94.4 to 101.2, and 1-8 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing by an average score of 95.2 to 140.3. Bet the Bucks.

5* Wiseguy CBB Blowout of the Month on Georgetown -15.5
Georgetown has lost 5 straight in a vigorous stretch that has seen it play 4 of those games on the road. After 3 straight losses out on the road, the Hoyas return home tonight and they will be out for blood. Rutgers is terrible and a big double digit home win over DePaul puts the Scarlet Knight in a letdown spot tonight. Georgetown is 9-2 at home and winning by 15.2 ppg in its own building. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (GEORGETOWN) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better are 51-21 ATS the last 5 seasons. Get ready for an offensive explosion from the Hoyas tonight.

5* Wiseguy Big 12 GOTY on Baylor +2.5
We'll take Baylor in an excellent spot tonight with our strongest bet in the Big 12 this season. Baylor has lost 3 straight. This is a team that entered the season with very high hopes of not only making the Big Dance but doing some damage once it got there. It lost at Oklahoma and then was edged out by Texas, 2 teams that are probably better than the Bears on most nights, but it was then embarrassed at Mizzou Saturday. That puts the Bears in a big bounce back spot at home tonight. KU has played a weak Big 12 slate to this point. It is a young team and is just 4-4 on the road this season. Baylor is 6-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 81.5 to 78.7. Kansas is 0-6 ATS in February games over the last 2 seasons. Take Baylor at home tonight.

4* Major Horizon League HAMMER on Wisconsin-Green Bay +2.5
The Phoenix are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games, 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Horizon League. Green Bay gave Butler all they wanted on the road a couple weeks back and the second place Phoenix will be ready to have their revenge at home tonight. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Big Market MONSTER on Knicks +6
New York can score with the best of the teams in the NBA and it has already showed it can hang with LA this season, playing the Lakers to a 2-point game in Tinsel Town. The Lakers bigs were instrumental in that win and without Bynum tonight, LA loses a big part of that edge. The Knicks are playing their best ball of the season, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 6-21 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference. The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take NY!

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Bailout BLOWOUT on Blazers -9
Portland is one of the best home teams in the league and it takes on a banged up Jazz team that is playing back-to-back and has lost 8 of its last 9 on the road! Portland is 14-2 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, 11-2 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, and 13-3 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Portland is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home versus the Jazz the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.

3* SUREFIRE on W. Mich -1
Kent is one of the worst covering teams in the nation at just 4-13 ATS this season. It is just 1-8 ATS on the road this season. WMU cleaned Kent's clock by 22 the last time in visited. This one won't be that bad but I anticipate a comfortable 7-point win for the Broncos.

4* Major CBB Underdog Shocker of the Week on Iowa State +10.5
ISU has lost 3 in a row and will be hungry Saturday against the best in the Big 12 at home where it is 10-3 this season. Expecting a bigger challenge from A&M next, expect to see OU looking ahead today. ISU is 12-3 ATS in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals since 1997. Take the points!

5* Wiseguy CBB BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR on Pitt -10.5
After Pitt lost to Louisville on the road, it exploded to an 18-point win at home against Syracuse. Now, coming off a road loss at Villanova, expect Pitt to rebound strong again. Notre Dame has lost 4 in a row and is clearly a second-tier team in the Big East this season as it is giving up too much in the athletic ability department. ND is 0-6 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. Lay the points!

3* SUREFIRE on Nets/Hawks OVER 196.5
Great overs spot here. NJ has played its best ball on the road this season and Atlanta is very hungry for a win following 3 straight losses. Both teams are athletic and I expect to see a lot of points go up on the board tonight. 5 of the last 6 meetings in this matchup have gone over. Atlanta is 15-3 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score totals 209.5 in these spots. Also, Atlanta is 13-4 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score totals 212.5 in these spots. Take the over.

4* Major NBA Underdog Shocker on Wizards +10.5
First off, the 76ers are being overvalued here. This is a .500 team and not a .660 team. Washington deserves to be a larger dog against Philly than it was at Portland a few nights back. Secondly, I really like the Wizards in this spot. They are hungry for a win and they just got it handed to them by division rival Miami. Washington is 10-1 ATS in road games after a division game over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 95.0 to 92.6 in these spots. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy Friday Night NBA Game of the Year (ESPN) on Celtics -5.5
Boston is rolling like it was early in the season, and let's face it, Detroit was no longer a threat in the East as soon as it traded away Billups. These teams have already met twice this season and Boston won each by 12 and 18 points respectively and I won't listen to any of the third time's a charm talk. Detroit has dropped 7 of 10 SU and ATS while Boston has won 9 straight and is 8-1 ATS in those games. Detroit is only 13-9 SU and 7-15 ATS in home games this season. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Detroit and the Road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Pistons are also 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games. Pound the Celtics tonight!

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT BLOOD BATH on Suns -1.5
This is a huge statement game for the Suns to prove that they can still play with the best in the west. The Suns are rested and back at home off two huge confidence-boosting blowout road wins. The Spurs have played a lot of games on the road over the last week and a half and that catches up with them tonight against a Suns team that will look to push the tempo. The Spurs are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. Take Phoenix.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Total of the Year on Michigan State/Iowa UNDER 125.5
Two straight in this series have gone UNDER at Iowa. Two years ago we saw a combined score of 122 points and last year we saw a combined score of just 79 points. Both teams are very good defensively and Iowa plays half court hoops so this one has the under written all over it. Iowa is 17-6 UNDER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) since 1997, 7-1 UNDER when the total is 120 to 129.5 this season, and 11-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Under!

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Blazers -9
Off an emotionally and physically draining double OT win in LA last night, there's no way they Bobcats will be able to get up for this one against a Blazers team that is 16-5 at home this season. Portland has beaten each of its last 2 opponents by double digits while scoring big points and that puts them in a very nice system tonight. Portland is 12-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.2 to 91.3. Lay the points!

4* Major NBA Odds Maker Miss on Memphis +7.5
I know Memphis has lost 10 in a row, but the Thunder don't deserve this kind of respect on any court against anyone. Memphis knows it can compete with the Thunder and it will get up for this game to end its skid. OKC has been a covering machine, almost entirely as an underdog. It has been favored now in 3 of its last 4 games, losing 2 of those SU and ATS. Plays On Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after 8 or more consecutive losses are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA First Half Total of the Year on Hawks/Knicks OVER 207
The Knicks push the tempo at home, averaging 107.3 ppg, but they are also giving up 106.8 and the Hawks are an athletic team that will be able to run and gun right along with them. Atlanta has lost 2 straight and is coming off a game where it scored just 79 points so I'm expecting an offensive explosion. Atlanta is 14-3 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. The Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings and 20-6 in the Knicks last 26 Wednesday games. Pound the OVER!

3* Top 10 Tango (ESPN) on Wake Forest +1.5
Wake is coming off a stunning loss to VA Tech and will be out for blood tonight to prove that it still belongs in the discussion of best teams in the country. One think Wake has more of than Duke is athletic ability and I expect its athletic ability to really bother the Blue Devils on both ends of the floor in this one. Also, a bit of a letdown by Duke is inevitable here after the performance they had against Maryland last weekend. Plays On A home team (WAKE FOREST) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite against opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival are 28-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Wake!

3* CBB Bailout on Colorado pk
Colorado has lost 4 in a row and we'll be ready to put an end to its skid against an ISU team that has struggled on the road. Colorado has beaten the Cyclones by double digits in each of its last 2 home games against them and has won 9 of the last 11 at home in this series. ISU is 0-9 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons and Colorado is 12-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Buffs!

5* Wiseguy NBA Revenge GOTM on Utah Jazz -1.5
The Jazz are a little banged up but they have every incentive to lay it all on the line here to end a 3-game skid. Utah is one of the best home teams in the NBA at 17-5 and they are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 home games against the Spurs. Overall, the Spurs have lost 4 straight regular season games in Salt Lake City. The Home team is a dominant 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The Spurs are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog while the Jazz are 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games as a home favorite. Lay the points tonight!

4* Major ACC Game of the Week (ESPN 2) on Maryland -4
With as badly as Maryland was embarrassed in its last game versus Duke, expect the Terps to play one of their best games of the season at home tonight where they are 11-1. Maryland is 22-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Terps!

5* Wiseguy NBA Southeast Division GOTY on Atlanta Hawks +4
I love the Hawks in the dog role today. Atlanta is 14-4 ATS as an underdog this season and 12-4 ATS as a road underdog this season. Miami is just 6-21 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Miami is also 0-9 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, losing these games outright by 6.3 ppg. In addition, that win being over division leader Orlando puts the Heat in an even bigger letdown spot. Take the points.

4* Major ESPN Big Monday MONSTER on Notre Dame -3
The Irish are a much better team than their 12-6 record indicates. Notre Dame has lost 3 straight in the Big East and will be out for blood on its home floor where it is 45-1 in its last 46 home games. Notre Dame has played the much tougher schedule to this point and that gives the Irish another advantage here. ND is 10-1 ATS off 3 straight losses against conference rivals since 1997, exploding to win by an average score of 82.3 to 72.1 in these spots. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy Missouri Valley Conference GOTY on Missouri State -1
The UNI Panthers are primed and ready for a major letdown after winning 7 straight against a Missouri State team that will be out for revenge. The Bears have won 8 of the last 11 in this series at home and will be playing to avenge an earlier loss to the Panthers. Missouri State is playing its best ball of the season right now, having won 2 of its last 3, and brings plenty of confidence into this one having blown out Drake in its last game while holding the Bulldogs to only 44 points. The Favorite is now 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup and Missouri State is 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Lay the point.

4* Major Big East BLOOD BATH on West Virginia -1.5
The public is not giving the Mountaineers a shot here and that only makes me like them more. This team is not even ranked and yet it is favored against No. 4 Pitt? Odds makers are tipping their hand. The Mountain men are No. 14 in the RPI and an easy top 15 team in my opinion. Pitt exploded to get back in the win column against Syracuse after enduring its first loss of the season, but that game was at home. Pitt is going to have a hard time getting up like that for this one. Many teams struggled playing these Sunday games but the Mountaineers have excelled at 17-4 ATS in their last 21 Sunday games. Plus, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take WVU.

3* SUREFIRE on Lakers -6.5
The Lakers have had this one circled since they were beaten by 1-point on a buzzer beater in San Antonio on January 14th. I have LA getting its revenge in a big way today. The Lakers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in home games against the Spurs the last 3 seasons. The key here is that LA's offense will be too explosive for the Spurs to keep up with. LA averages 109.2 ppg at home this season while the Spurs score only 94.3 on the road. The Lakers are 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, winning these games by an average score of 103.8 to 94.6. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Favorite of the Year on Jazz -2.5
There's no way a short handed Cavs team can bounce back after last night's barn burner and beat one of the best teams in the NBA in a big bounce back spot. The Cavaliers are 11-27-3 ATS in their last 41 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The Jazz are 51-25-2 ATS in their last 78 home games. Utah is 11-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons and 16-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 17-4 at home this season and I like them big tonight!

5* Wiseguy CBB "Under the Radar" Blowout of the Year on Harvard -15
The Crimson win this one by 20+! Harvard has not played in two weeks and the last opponent it saw was Dartmouth. After beating a Boston College team as a huge underdog, the Crimson endured a letdown and nearly lost to an inferior Dartmouth squad. Harvard proves that Dartmouth can't hang with a huge win at home today. Harvard returns all 5 starters from a team which buried Dartmouth 82-56 at home last season. Plays against underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DARTMOUTH) - a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 33-10 ATS since 1997. Load up on Harvard!

3* SUREFIRE on Buffalo +9
Buffalo is getting too many. All 3 games in this matchup were tight last season and the Bulls bring the better team to 2009 with all 5 starters back. Buffalo is 9-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite since 1997. Take the points!

3* SUREFIRE on Washington pk
UCLA misses Love and Westbrook and they run into a red hot Huskies team here. Washington has won 8 of the last 11 at home in this matchup, including 2 in a row SU and ATS by double digits against favored UCLA teams. Take the Huskies!

4* Major Early Upset on Auburn +5
The public is in love with Arkansas here despite it having lost 3 in a row SU and ATS. Auburn has covered 3 straight in this series and is 9-3 ATS this season. Odds makers have set their trap and the public has taken the bait. We'll hit the other side for an easy casher.

5* Wiseguy NBA Public Massacre of the Year on Warriors +6.5
The public is heavily on the Cavs here but they are betting blindly. While Cleveland is 20-0 at home, it has struggled on the road, especially of late because of its depth issues being exposed by injuries to Big Z and Delonte West. The Warriors plays much faster than Cleveland would like to play and they will be out for blood tonight after a 1-point loss to lowly OKC. Golden State is 19-6 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by 5.5 points on average. Golden State is 20-8 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 21-5-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Warriors are getting too many.

4* Major NBA Bounce Back Game of the Week on Pacers +1.5
The Pacers have won 3 straight at home and with TMAC and Artest out, the Rockets won't have the horses to win in the uptempo style that Indiana plays. Indiana has already won at Houston earlier this and it is in a prime bounce back spot tonight. Indiana is 13-4 ATS off a road loss this season and 12-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Pacers are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Pacers.

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time TOTAL on Wizards/Lakers UNDER 208
With both of these teams playing last night, tired legs keep this one under the number. The Lakers have a rematch against San Antonio in a couple days and that is more their focus than the lowly Wizards tonight. Washington hasn't went over the century mark in back-to-back games in over a month, so expect the Wizards to have a letdown tonight. Washington is 12-2 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Pound the Under!

5* Wiseguy East Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on Celtics +5
The books are giving Boston too many points tonight. The Celtics come in red hot, having won 6 straight, and have been deadly in the underdog role, going 12-2 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points the past 2 seasons. This series has been neck and neck over the past 6 games with each team winning 3 games but the Magic have failed to win any of those games by more than 3 points. This is a huge statement game for Boston to show that it is still the team to beat in the East. The Celtics have more beef inside than most teams in the NBA and that will help keep Dwight Howard in check and will get Boston the cover. Take the points!

4* NCAAB Underdog of the Month on Seton Hall +1.5
I'll gladly take the Pirates in the home dog role tonight as they are hungry for a win against a Providence team which has not inspired any confidence on the road. The public is all over Providence here and we will take the other side for an easy winner. The major key is that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. It is also worth noting that Providence is only 3-8 ATS in the last 11 matchups. Seton Hall's record is misleading because it has played such a tough early slate in Big East play against the conference's elite. The Pirates believe they can compete with Providence and I like them to come out on top tonight. Take the Pirates.

4* Major CBB Bookmaker Trap on Iowa +3
The odds makers have set their trap here and it has over got over 70% of the betting public on the Badgers. Wisconsin is down this year, struggling in the Big Ten just like Iowa, but the Hawks will be out for blood at home tonight. You can count on that. Iowa is 9-1 at home this season where it is always a force. The Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. Take the Hawks.

4* Major Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Knicks +6
The Suns do not deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road against a more than capable offensive team and yet the public continues to back them. The Suns are just 13-25 ATS this season. They are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games. The Suns are the most overvalued team in the NBA and we will take advantage here. Phoenix is 3-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Take the points!

3* Southern Conf. SUREFIRE on Charleston -10
Appalachian State is 6-20 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game since 1997, losing these games by an average score of 64.2 to 74.6. If Appalachian State is not scoring with the clock stopped, it has had trouble staying in games against against uptempo teams. College of Charleston rolls tonight.

5* Wiseguy CBB Double Digit BLOOD BATH of the Month on Michigan State -11.5
I love the Spartans tonight at home tonight. They have won 19 of the last 20 in this series since 1997, including 8 straight at home during that span. The Spartans have won by double digits in this matchup in 16 of the last 17 meetings. NW has been a completely different team on the road with a 1-4 SU and ATS mark. They were crushed by 29 in their last road game at Wisconsin and Michigan State holds the power to hit them as hard. NW is 3-13 ATS on Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons. Mich State is 26-9 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997, winning these game by an average of 12.0 ppg. After a big win over Minnesota, expect a big Letdown by the Wildcats here. Lay the number!

4* Major NBA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK on Bulls -3.5
Atlanta has already beaten Chicago twice this season but the third time will be a charm for the Bulls. To add fuel to the fire, the Bulls are off back-to-back losses and will be very hungry for a win on their home floor where they are a respectable 13-8 this season. The Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Hawks are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings and 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Chicago. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Chicago gets the Hawks in a vulnerable spot by double digits here.

3* MO Valley Massacre on Evansville +2
The public is all over a Creighton team that has been up and down on the road this season. I'll back a much improved Evansville team that beat Creighton at home last season and is 11-1 on its home floor in 2008-09. The Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Bluejays are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Evansville. The Purple Aces are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points!

5* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR (ESPN) on Illinois -7
We'll take the Illini in a great spot tonight. Off a loss at Michigan State, Illinois returns home and will be out for revenge. Illinois has the better team this season and will be ready to pay the Buckeyes back for 5 straight defeats. Illinois has been unstoppable at home this season with a 10-1 mark, winning by 19.6 points on average in those games. The Home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Fighting Illini are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Lay the number!

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Lakers -4.5
After going down to the Spurs and Magic in back-to-back games, expect the Lakers to take care of business tonight. The Cavs have struggled on the road of late, losing 3 of their last 4 road contests. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less against an opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 33-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Lakers are dangerous at home and they will be looking to pay back the Cavs for 4 straight losses over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Lakers!

4* Major ESPN Big Monday BOMB on Pitt -8.5
We'll take Pitt in a great spot here. The Panthers return home off their first loss of the season while the Orange take the road in a letdown spot following a blowout win over Notre Dame. Pitt is 10-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 73.6 to 60.0. Pitt is 11-0 at home this season and it had a big advantage on the interior tonight. We'll lay the points.

3* NBA Early Upset Special on Bobcats +4.5
The public money is pouring in on the Spurs and that was the intention of the odds makers here as they like the Bobcats in this position and so do I. Charlotte has won 3 in a row SU and ATS while the Spurs have not looked particularly good on the road, getting crushed by Philly and struggling against the Bulls in their last two. SA is just 8-21 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons, losing outright in these spots by an average score of 93.3 to 95.4. It is also 13-24 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons, losing outright in these spots by an average score of 92.6 to 94.8. Charlotte is 15-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Taking the points is the right side!

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Week on Minnesota +1
Northwestern has now lost 4 straight and after letting Purdue escape with a win Thursday it's going to be tough to get up for this one. Minnesota never packed it in again Wisconsin and ended up pulling that game out despite being down double digits. The Gophers are the better team and I'll take them here. Minnesota has won 4 in a row SU and ATS. It is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in road games this season and 9-3 ATS in all lined games. NW is just 2-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

3* Sunday NBA BEST BET on Raptors +3.5
The public is all over Phoenix here so we will gladly go against the grain once again, just like we did yesterday when the Bobcats came through for us with an outright win. The Suns have lost 2 in a row SU and 4 in a row ATS. Toronto has dropped 4 in a row SU and it will be hungry for a win today before going out on a long road trip. Phoenix is just 3-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, 2-10 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games this season, and 13-24 ATS in all games this season. The Suns are down and odds makers are using that against the public this season. Take the Raptors!