Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Thunder/Mavs UNDER 199
Bottom Line: The Under is showing good value here. Defense is starting to pick up in this series and it should be at its best tonight with the Thunder fighting to stay alive and the Mavs looking to put them away. We only saw 180 total points scored in Game 3 and Game 4 was on pace to finish under this number at the end of regulation before Dirk went off late. Plays Under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, provided they are a good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 84-45 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 190.3 total points scored in this situation. In addition, the Under is 6-2 in the Thunder's last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game and 9-3-1 in the Mavericks' last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy Game 4 MONSTER (TNT) on Bulls +5
Bottom Line: The Chicago Bulls haven't dropped 3 straight games all season. They've lost 2 in a row 4 other times and have bounced back to win in each of those instances by over 5.0 points on average. Chicago was really close in Games 2 and 3 despite playing beneath its potential on offense and defense in both games. I especially expect a better defensive effort from the No. 1 ranked field goal defense in the NBA tonight after allowing Miami to shoot over 50% in Game 3. The Bulls are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy Game 4 Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Thunder -3.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder haven't dropped back-to-back games since the first 2 days of April. That says a lot about the character of this team. Since them, OKC has lost 7 games. It has rebounded to win by an average of nearly 8.0 points per game following each of the previous 6 defeats during this span and I expect it to bounce back strong from its 7th loss during this span as well. Kevin Durant was 0-for-8 from 3-point land in Game 3 and the team was only 1-for-17 from beyond the arc. I'm betting that OKC won't settle for as many contested 3's and won't shoot them as poorly tonight. The Thunder are still a rock solid 6-2 at home in these playoffs. We'll lay the points on them tonight.

5* Wiseguy PRIMETIME PUNISHER (TNT) on Heat -4.5
Bottom Line: Miami is a perfect 6-0 at home in these playoffs with wins of 8, 21, 6, 9, 11 and 10 points. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) looking for revenge for an upset defeat, provided they are playing with 3 or more days' rest, are just 26-51 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 7.0 points. Miami's defense was dominant in Game 2, holding Chicago to only 34.1% shooting. Expect the Heat to feed off the home crowd and bring the same energy on the defensive end tonight. The result should be another win and cover. Lay the points.

4* Major Primetime Punisher on Mavs +2.5
Bottom Line: It's hard not to like Dallas catching points on the road considering it is 18-6 ATS as a road underdog this season. The Mavs are 11-1 ATS in all playoff games this season and 12-1 ATS in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series and the Mavericks are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road meetings in this series. The OKC bench played out of its mind in Game 2 and the Thunder only won by 6. I just don't see the OKC bench being able to match their performance last game. Plus, coach Brooks' decision to bench Westbrook may not prove to be a good move in the long run. Now, the youngster will be looking over his shoulder every time he makes a mistake. It could also cause him not to be quite as aggressive, which is the best facet of his game. Look for the Mavs to bounce back tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 201
Bottom Line: After a pair of subpar defensive efforts by both teams, expect each side to really tighten the screws tonight. These two teams have consistently played lower scoring games in Oklahoma City. In fact, we have only seen an average of 192.8 total points scored in the last 5 matchups in OKC. Looking back further, these teams have combined to average only 188.6 points in their last 9 games at OKC/SEA. In addition, road teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) that are out for revenge for an upset loss and are a good team with a 60-75% win rate on the season, are 41-17 (71%) to the Under the last 5 seasons. We have seen just 197.2 total points scored on average with this system. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy Game 2 Monster (ESPN) on Thunder +5.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder haven't lost back-to-back games since the first 2 days of April. Prior to that, OKC hadn't lost consecutive contests since late February. Prior to the Game 1 defeat, the Thunder had lost just 5 times since April 2nd and rebounded to win the very next game each time by an average of 8.2 points. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Dallas. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Heat +2.5
Bottom Line: Home teams with a winning percentage of .740 or better in the 2nd game of a conference finals series are a dismal 2-13-1 ATS the last 18 years. In addition, teams coming off a blowout victory of 20 points or more in the NBA playoffs are a terrible 66-110 ATS the last 20 years if matched up against a foe checking in off a SU and ATS defeat. Neither of these trends look good for Chicago. Plus, Miami hasn't lost consecutive games in over 2 months. Prior to the Game 1 defeat, the Heat had lost just 5 times since March 10 and rebounded to win the very next game each time by an average of 12.0 points. This is a great spot for Miami. Pound the Heat.

4* Major Game 1 Primetime Total on Thunder/Mavs UNDER 193.5
Bottom Line: The long layoff will affect Dallas' offensive rhythm tonight, and that opens the door for Game 1 to come in Under the number. The Under is 5-0 in the Mavericks' last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. OKC is 12-4 Under as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 12-4 Under in the 2nd half of the season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ points/game. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy Game 1 Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Thunder +6
Bottom Line: I really believe the long layoff will affect Dallas' rhythm tonight. Therefore, the Mavs shouldn't be laying this many points. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Thunder are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Dallas. Plus, OKC is an impressive 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder bench is every bit as good as the Dallas bench with guys like Harden and Collison coming off it. Plus the Thunder are more athletic and that is going to put a lot of pressure on Dallas defenders. Take the Thunder.

4* Major "Total" Massacre (TNT) on Heat/Bulls UNDER 181
Bottom Line: I expect a low-scoring, physical, defensive battle in Game 1. The Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago. The Bulls tend to really feed off great defensive performances. It motivates them to be even better the next time out. Consider that Chicago is 8-0 Under after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game this season. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy Game 7 MONSTER (ABC) on Thunder -6.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder have the big advantage playing at home in Game 7 when you consider the recent history - home teams are 21-7 in Game 7s the past decade. OKC hasn't lost back-to-back games in these playoffs and has won its last 2 home games in this series by 9 and 27 points. The Thunder are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 home games against Memphis. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Playoff "Total" Blowout on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 195
Bottom Line: The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Over is 13-4 in the Grizzlies' last 17 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 10-2 in all of their games as a home favorite of 3 points or less this season. We have seen an average of 207.5 total points scored in these games. Memphis has shot awful the last 3 games, but I don't see it continuing at home tonight. Plus, we have seen a ton of free throws in this series and I expect to see a lot more tonight in what should be an intense battle. Pound the Over.

5* Wiseguy Gm 6 Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Grizzlies -1.5
Bottom Line: Under coach Hollins, Memphis is an impressive 16-4 ATS when out to avenge a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. Memphis is also an awesome 22-5 ATS off a road loss this season and 13-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. I especially like the Grizz in this spot because they are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a defeat of more than 10 points. Take Memphis.

4* Major NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Bulls/Hawks UNDER 179
Bottom Line: We'll see the best defensive effort of the series from both teams tonight as the Bulls look to wrap up the series and the Hawks fight to stay alive. Consider that Atlanta is 19-6 Under as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 176.4 total points scored in these games. The Under is 15-6 in the Hawks' last 21 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 home games. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff Primetime Punisher on Bulls -3.5
Bottom Line: After watching Miami close out the Celtics last night, I believe the Bulls will smell blood here. The Bulls are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 off a home win by 10 points or more. In addition, Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 second round playoff games. After winning Game 2 at home, the Bulls went on the road and crushed the Hawks in Game 3. Expect a similar result tonight.

5* Wiseguy Game 5 Monster on Thunder -6.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder are back home with all the momentum after Monday's triple-OT win. They have done a good job on Zach Randolph since he went off in Game 1, making him take a lot of shots to get his points. I can't see him being effective enough tonight after logging 55:56 minutes in Game 4. Gasol also figures to be fatigued after playing 57:08 last game. Expect OKC to really look to push the tempo to take the Memphis bigs right out of this game. Lay the points.

4* Major Game 5 Primetime Punisher on Heat -7.5
Bottom Line: Boston is saying all the right things, but it will be difficult for them to bring enough energy to the floor after such a devastating overtime loss at home in Game 4. Miami has won 4 of its last 5 against Boston, including all 3 at home during this stretch by at least 9 points. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the Heat.

4* Major NBA Primetime Punisher on Bulls -8.5
Bottom Line: Chicago is 12-3 ATS following an upset loss this season. It is winning these games by an average of 10.6 points. Atlanta is an awful 8-22 ATS in its last 30 road games in the playoffs, losing these contests by an average of 12.4 points. Expect the Bulls to respond in a big way at home tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 181
Bottom Line: Under defensive genius Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls are 10-1 UNDER when out to avenge a double-digit defeat to a foe, including a perfect 7-0 UNDER if that defeat occurred on the road. Coach Thibodeau is not at all happy with the way his Bulls defended in Game 4, and I expect his troops to respond to his criticism at home tonight. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Super System *POWER PLAY* on Thunder +2.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder have only lost 2 or more consecutive games 5 times this season and just once since the start of April. This is a very resilient team and will be extremely hungry after letting Game 3 get away. Since the beginning of last season, OKC is an awesome 11-0 ATS on the road when looking to avenge a road defeat to an opponent. The Thunder have won these games outright by an average of 1.7 points. Look for this system to improve to 12-0 as OKC earns another outright win.

4* Major Primetime Punisher on Celtics +1.5
Bottom Line: Boston has won its last 11 home games against Miami. The Celtics may be banged up but I expect their home dominance over the Heat to continue. The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Heat are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston. Take the Celtics.

4* Major Game 4 *BLOOD BATH* on Bulls -3.5
Bottom Line: With the exception of Game 1, Chicago has absolutely dominated the Hawks at the defensive end this season. In 6 meetings, Chicago has held Atlanta to an average of 83 points. I expect another strong defensive effort from the Bulls to lead to a win and cover tonight. Atlanta's Game 3 loss at home really puts it in a pickle considering the recent history. In fact, the Hawks are 0-8 ATS in home games when looking to avenge a home defeat since the beginning of last season. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Bulls/Hawks UNDER 179
Bottom Line: The Bulls and Hawks both shot around 47% from the field in Game 3 and the Bulls made 10 3-pointers and we only saw 181 total points scored. Chicago, which is a mediocre 3-point shooting team, should cool off from deep and both teams should up the intensity on the defensive end this evening. Historically, Game 4 of any playoff series has been very intense and we have seen the total score come in Under the number often because of it. Consider that plays Under on any team in the 4th game of a playoff series is 108-54 the last 5 seasons, including 14-2 this season. Pound the Under.

4* Major Game 4 *BLOOD BATH* on Lakers +2.5
Bottom Line: The value lies with the Lakers here considering their history of rising to the occasion and Dallas' history of not putting away foes in the playoffs. The Lakers are down 0-3 but could easily be up 2-1 and they get Ron Artest back this afternoon. This could be the last game for Phil Jackson and it could be the end of a dynasty in LA. Those are huge motivational factors. Look for the Lakers to dig down deep to send this series back to LA. Plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, are 52-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers.

4* Major NBA Primetime Punisher (ABC) on Celtics -3
Bottom Line: This is a great spot historically for Boston. Plays on home favorites (BOSTON) playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses to an opponent) in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% winning percentages) are 82-44 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.0 ppg. Lay the points with Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 200.5
Bottom Line: Odds makers are looking to trap the public big time with this line after a pair of high-scoring overs to start the series. Expect the tide to turn in Game 3 as the intensity builds with each team looking to take control. Plays Under on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) with a winning record on the season and playing another winning team are 135-82 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 192.7 total points scored in this situation. Also, plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS), if they have beaten the spread by 18 points total or more in their last three games and if they have a winning percentage between 51% and 60% on the season, are 42-14 the last 5 seasons. Pound the Under.

4* Major Game 3 CA$H COW on Lakers +2
Bottom Line: This could be as far as the two-time defending champs get but they won't go down without a fight. Dallas blew a 2-0 lead in the 2006 Finals so Mavs backers definitely shouldn't be counting their chickens yet. Kobe Bryant is one of the best competitors in the history of the NBA, and I'm expecting a monumental performance from him in this desperate spot. The Lakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The road squad is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Look for the road team to continue its domination in this series.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Lakers/Mavs UNDER 187.5
Bottom Line: Plays Under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA LAKERS) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses, good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 40-13 since 1996. We are only seeing an average of 179.1 total points scored with this system. Also, this system is a perfect 11-0 the last 3 seasons. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff Primetime Punisher on Bulls -2.5
Bottom Line: Chicago's defense has given Atlanta fits all season with the exception of Game 1. The Bulls dominated the Hawks on the defensive end in Game 2 and I expect more of the same tonight. Chicago is holding Atlanta to only 83.2 points in 5 meetings this season. The Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and the Hawks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Conference Semifinals games. Expect Chicago to take back control of this series tonight.

4* Major NBA Playoff Bailout on Lakers -7
Bottom Line: After blowing a 16-point lead to lose Game 1, the Lakers will be extremely motivated and focused when they hit the floor tonight. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) - are 89-57 ATS the last 5 seasons. After losing Game 1 to New Orleans in round 1, the Lakers bounced right back with a 87-78 win. The Lakers have superior front court players, and I expect Bynum, Gasol and Odom to really impose their will in this one. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Playoff *BLOOD BATH* on Bulls -8.5
Bottom Line: Prior to a game 1 defeat, the Bulls had handed Atlanta back-to-back whoopings of 18 of 31 points respectively. Motivated by Monday's loss at home, look for the Bulls to hand the Hawks another double-digit defeat tonight. There is a simple system that is greatly in our favor tonight. Consider that plays on home teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss, provided they are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) - are 54-21 ATS the last 5 seasons. That's a 72% success rate. The Bulls are 39-6 at home this season, winning those contests by an average of 9.9 points. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Blowout on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 180
Bottom Line: Really think this one will finish under the number by double digits. After giving up 103 points on 51.3% shooting in Game 1, expect the NBA's best defensive team to really dig in on the defensive end tonight. Chicago is 23-10 UNDER when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. Also, the Hawks have been one of the weaker offensive teams in the NBA all season. They have played to the Under in 5 of their last 6 games and we have only seen an average of 171.4 total points scored in those 5 unders. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoff *BLOOD BATH* on Thunder -6.5
Bottom Line: This is a MUST-WIN game for the Thunder and I strongly believe Kevin Durant and company will rise to the occasion. The Thunder are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games following a home loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. We'll lay the points with OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 197.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 19-8 UNDER in their last 27 home games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more. We have only seen an average of 195.2 total points scored in these games. Also, plays UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), if the play on team has made 47% or more of its shots the last 3 games, are 198-123 (62%) since 1996. We are only seeing an average of 195.9 total points scored in this situation. After a poor defensive effort in Game 1, expect the Thunder to really tighten the screws here tonight. Take the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre (TNT) on Mavs/Lakers UNDER 189
Bottom Line: Expect this series to be a war from the start with physical defense and a slow tempo catering to the Under. Consider that plays Under on any team (LA LAKERS) in a game involving two teams that allow between 92-98.0 ppg, if we are 42 or more games into the season and if the play on team has allowed 90 points or less 2 straight games, are 91-51 the last 5 seasons. We have only seen an average of 182.4 total points scored in this situation. The Lakers are also 13-5 Under versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season and 20-7 Under as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoff *BLOOD BATH* (TNT) on Bulls -8.5
Bottom Line: After blowing a big lead and losing the season's first meeting in the closing seconds, Chicago rebounded to crush the Hawks by 18 and 33 points. Atlanta's last loss to Chicago is especially significant considering plays against underdogs (ATLANTA) looking ti avenge a home loss to a foe of 20 points or more, if that foe checks in off a double-digit home victory, are 35-12 (75%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Team fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 13.8 points. Without Hinrich to orchestrate the offense and defend Rose, Atlanta is in trouble tonight. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy Western Conference Semifinal Game of the Year on Thunder -6.5
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies took 3 of 4 from the Thunder during the regular season but Perkins was not available for any of those games. OKC has become a completely different defensive team since he has become a regular. He gives the Thunder the defensive post presence they need alongside Ibaka to make life difficult for Z-Bo (Randolph). Durant is a matchup nightmare for the shorter Tony Allen and Westbrook will be a handful for the shorter Conley. Plus, it's going to be tough for Memphis to bring enough energy to the floor with such a quick turnaround following its biggest win in franchise history. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and I expect this trend to continue here. Pound the Thunder.

4* Major NBA Playoff *BLOOD BATH* on Spurs +3
Bottom Line: San Antonio has new life following its overtime win in Game 5 to extend the series. With Memphis now feeling the heat, the advantage goes to the more experienced Spurs in this crucial Game 6. San Antonio has found itself in this position before while the Grizzlies hadn't ever won a playoff game before this year. We really can't discount the Spurs huge edge in terms of experience here. We're talking about a team with multiple championship rings. We also can't ignore the fact that the team catching points is now 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. I'm taking experience in Game 6. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 189
Bottom Line: Both teams have shot 45.9% or better from the floor in Games 4 and 5, and we saw a pair of Overs as a result. I don't expect the points to comes as easy in this one with all that's at stake for both squads. The Under has been the play when these teams have gotten together in Memphis, cashing tickets in 9 of the last 13 meetings. The Under is also 8-3 in the Grizzlies' last 11 home contests and 5-1 in its last 6 as a home favorite. San Antonio is 9-3-1 to the Under in its last 13 playoff games as an underdog. We'll keep playing the trends, and it should keep paying off for us tonight. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoff Bailout on Mavs +4.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is the best road team in the NBA and I'm confident it will close out this series tonight. Brandon Roy went off in Game 4 to bring the Blazers back from 20-plus down or this series would be over. The Mavs made a statement by holding Roy to just 5 points in Game 5 and I expect them to hold him in check again. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or less points. Dallas has made some early playoff exits in recent years but this team is different. It has some of the best depth in the NBA and that depth will be the difference tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Lakers/Hornets UNDER 184
Bottom Line: We only saw 196 total points scored in Game 5 when both teams shot over 49% from the field. With the Lakers looking to close out the series and the Hornets looking to stay alive, we can expect both teams to pick up their play on the defensive end. The Lakers are 51-36 UNDER in all games this season, 23-12 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs this season and 24-13 UNDER after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 52-35 UNDER in all games this season, 18-9 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 10-3 UNDER in its last 13 home games versus a team with a winning road record. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in the Lakers' last 12 road games. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Nuggets/Thunder UNDER 204.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder was not at all happy about its defensive performance in Game 4. It didn't defend the basket well early and didn't defend the 3-point shot well late. It also fouled way too much. Expect OKC to tighten the screws on the defensive end tonight and for the finals score to finish under the number as a result. 6 of the last 7 games between these teams have finished Under and OKC has held the Nuggets to an average of 95.5 ppg in the 6 meetings with them since the Melo trade. Take the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoff Side of the Night on Spurs -6.5
Bottom Line: Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent), and up against a foe that is coming off an upset win over a division team, are 50-23 ATS the last 15 years. Teams fitting the parameters of this system are winning by an average of 10.4 points. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Pacers/Bulls OVER 187
Bottom Line: I really like the Over here as the series shifts back to Chicago where these teams have played to the Over in 5 of their last 7. Plus, Consider that plays Over on all teams when the posted total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a losing record - are 51-21 the last 15 years, including 2-0 already this season. We have seen an average of 192.2 total points scored with this system. Pound the Over.

4* Major NBA Playoff Super System Total on Hawks/Magic OVER 178
Bottom Line: Plays Over on all teams when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (ORLANDO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 92-98 ppg, after 42+ games into the season and after a loss by 6 points or less - are 22-5 since 1996. Teams fitting the parameters of this system have combined with their opponents to score an average of 186.4 points. Pound the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout on Thunder/Nuggets OVER 206
Bottom Line: Plays OVER on any team (Denver in this case) off a home loss to a division rival and up against an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 74-37 (66.7%) since 1996. Also, Denver is 29-17 OVER in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and 41-26 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Over.

4* Major NBA *Monster Line Mistake* on Spurs -1
Bottom Line: This line is soft, considering San Antonio is 8-1 ATS this season in road games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent. It is winning these games by an average score of 100.4 to 95.6. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Grizzlies are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the No. 1 seed in the West tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Grizzlies OVER 189
Bottom Line: Plays on the OVER on all home teams (Memphis in this case) when the over/under line is between 180 and 189.5 points, if that team is only playing its 2nd game in 5 days and is coming off a victory by 3 or fewer points over a division rival, are 35-8 (81.4%) since 1996. Teams fitting this situation have combined with their opponents to beat the number by an average of 10.2 points. We'll take the Over.

4* Major NBA Playoff *BLOOD BATH* on Magic pk
Bottom Line: The Magic have a big edge on the interior with Dwight Howard and that edge gets even bigger with Atlanta's best post defender (Zaza Pachulia) sitting this one out with a suspension. Pachulia's decision to head-butt Jason Richardson has the Magic steamed, thinking he should have gotten stiffer punishment.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 195.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 22-6 in the last 28 in the 4th game of a playoff series when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. Also, plays Under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BOSTON) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days - are 25-6 the last 5 seasons. Lastly, plays Under on home teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (NEW YORK) - revenging a home upset loss and up against an opponent off a win against a division rival - are a perfect 7-0 the last 5 seasons. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *Monster Line Mistake* on Mavericks +4
Bottom Line: I really like Dallas, the deeper and more talented side, catching 4 points here. Dallas is 28-14 on the road this season and has been deadly when catching points. Consider that Dallas is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 or fewer points this season. It is winning outright in these games by an average of 1.8 points. It also can't be overlooked that Portland is a poor 88-119 ATS in its last 207 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Mavs/Blazers UNDER 187
Bottom Line: Right away I like the fact that the Under is 94-52 in all Game 4's in the playoffs the last 5 seasons. The last 2 games in this series have barely gone over this number despite both teams shooting extremely well. Portland has shot out of its mind from 3-point range the last 2 games but consider that it is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 after 2 straight games making 50% of its 3 point shots or better. We are only seeing an average of 180.2 total points scored in this situation. Also, Dallas is a rock solid 29-16 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoff PRIMETIME PUNISHER (ESPN2) on Hawks +2
Bottom Line: The Magic are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the Hawks, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Atlanta has won both of its home games against the Magic this season. Take the Hawks.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Blowout on Celtics/Knicks OVER 191
Bottom Line: 189 total points were scored in Game 2 with the Knicks shooting just 35.6% from the field and with Amare Stoudemire going out with back spasms. Stoudemire is expected back and the Knicks will shoot better at home, where they are averaging 108.1 points on 47.2% shooting this season. The Over is 5-1 in the Celtics' last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Over is 6-1 in the Knicks' last 7 home games and 14-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite. 13 of the last 17 meetings between these teams have finished over this number. Bet the Over.

4* Major NBA Playoff "Total" Bailout on Mavs/Blazers UNDER 186
Bottom Line: The tempo was very slow in Dallas and I expect it to get even slower tonight. Game 1 finished well under the number and Game 2 would have as well had Peja not gone off from 3. Down 0-2 with their backs against the wall, you can bet the Blazers will be D-ing up tonight. The Under is 5-0 in the Trail Blazers' last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Under is also 16-7 in their last 23 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Under is also 6-1 in the Mavericks' last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Game 3 has all the makings of an ugly low-scoring affair.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Blowout on Heat/76ers OVER 186.5
Bottom Line: Miami, which averages 7 3-point makes a game on nearly 37% shooting, was just 3 of 15 from beyond the arc in Game 2. This is significant because the Heat are 7-0 Over this season following a game where they made 20% or fewer of their 3 point shots. We have seen an average of 211.5 total points scored in these games. I also like the fact that the Over is 5-1 in Philly's last 6 games following a double-digit defeat. This is basically a do-or-die game for Philadelphia already, considering the history of teams that fall into a 0-3 hole. Expect the 76ers to speed up the tempo at home and expect them to place an emphasis on driving the ball to the basket. That should result in more trips to the foul line. Scoring points with the clock stopped is always great for the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Hornets/Lakers UNDER 188
Bottom Line: After holding New Orleans to an average of 91.0 ppg in 4 regular season meetings, The Lakers allowed Chris Paul and company to torch them for 109. Phil Jackson has proven to be great at making adjustments in the postseason and I expect him to find a way to slow Paul down tonight. It's not like they haven't done it before. The Lakers held him to only 10 points in a 102-84 home win on March 27. LA will tighten the screws defensively here and this one should come in Under the number as a result. The Under is 25-10-1 in the Lakers' last 36 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more and 12-3 in their last 15 games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoff Blowout on Spurs -8
Bottom Line: It hasn't been an out of the ordinary thing for the Spurs to lose their first playoff game. In fact, they have lost four Game 1's in their first round series dating back to 2003 and have responded to win Game 2 by an average of 13 points. Following last year's playoff-opening loss to Dallas, the Spurs responded with a 14-point win. That came after they bounced back from a Game 1 defeat to club the Mavs by 21 in 2009. The Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Grizzlies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lay the points.

5* 1st Round NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Magic -8.5
Bottom Line: The public is all over Atlanta here because of its regular season success against Orlando and its Game 1 win, but I won't hesitate to go against the grain. Orlando, without question, will be the hungrier team tonight. Plus, I'm not about to let 1 road win in the playoffs by the Hawks to make me forget about their mediocre road play during the season and their terrible road play in the postseason in recent years. Consider that Atlanta is on a 6-20 ATS skid in road playoff games, losing them by 12.9 points on average. The Hawks are also 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, Orlando is on an impressive 15-5 ATS run in home games following a double-digit defeat. The Magic are winning these contests by an average of 14.0 points. Take the Magic.

4* Major NBA Playoffs "Total" Massacre on Knicks/Celtics OVER 193
Bottom Line: Recent history tells us to look to the Over in game 2 of a playoff series as it is 96-58 the last 5 seasons. Teams have been able to make the proper adjustments offensively between games 1 and 2 to carry the score over the number consistently. I resisted this trend in the Bulls game last night because of their uncharacteristically poor defensive performance in Game 1. They made their adjustments on the defensive end. Billups is the Knicks best decision-maker and he isn't expected to go tonight. New York has no shot in this one if they try to play halfcourt hoops against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA without him. Coach D'Antoni knows that and he'll have his club looking to push the pace to get some easy buckets. Also, the Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Boston. The Over is 8-0 in the Celtics' last 8 vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Knicks' last 6 games following a loss. Take the Over.

5* Wiseguy 1st Round NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Bulls Under 192
Bottom Line: The Bulls ranked No. 1 in field goal percentage defense this season, allowing foes to shoot just 43%, but they allowed Indiana to shoot 46.4% in game 1. Chicago also ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 32.6% from deep, but it allowed Indiana to make 10 of 18 3-point shots in game 1. When asked what the Bulls need to improve on defensively in game 2, coach Thibodeau said "Everything. Every aspect from ball pressure, challenging shots, finishing the defense, getting back, getting set. Fourth-quarter defense was a lot different than the rest of the game." His team has received the message loud and clear and I expect a completely different defensive effort tonight. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Primetime Punisher on 76ers +9.5
Bottom Line: The 76ers have held 9 of their last 10 opponents under the century mark. They have held Miami under the century mark in 3 of 4 meetings this season. It will be extremely difficult for Miami to cover this number with as well as the 76ers have defended. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Miami is also just 5-18 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The Heat are only defeating these foes by 4.8 points on average. Coach Doug Collins has said he wants to see his team get to the foul line more in game 2, which will give them an excellent chance to keep this one within the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *Monster Line Mistake* on Nuggets +6
Bottom Line: Denver is 12-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, winning these games by an average score of 100.4 to 100.1. It is also 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games. In addition, the Nuggets are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games when playing with 3 or more days rest. The Nuggets are fresh and as healthy as they've been in a while. Plus, they will be very hungry here after a pair of April defeats to the Thunder. We'll Take the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs "Total" Massacre on Hornets/Lakers UNDER 183
Bottom Line: New Orleans is a perfect 11-0 UNDER when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses to an opponent - this season and 11-0 UNDER in road games following a division game over the last 2 seasons. Also, the 7-0 UNDER off a road win in which they scored 110 or more points this season. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *Monster Line Mistake* on Hawks +8.5
Bottom Line: Atlanta found itself in the underdog role 4 times against the Magic this season. The Hawks covered the spread in all 4 meetings, winning 3 outright and losing the 1 by only 4 points. Atlanta is a much better defensive team this season and should prove to be better yet in the playoffs after upgrading at the point guard spot with Kirk Hinrich - known as one of the better on-ball defenders in the league. The Hawks lost their last 6 games, but they were also resting players and cutting back minutes since they really didn't have an opportunity to improve their seeding. The Magic are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Take Atlanta and the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs "Total" Massacre on 76ers/Heat UNDER 190
Bottom Line: The Under is 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 overall and the Heat have played to the Under in 3 straight. These teams played to the Under in 2 of 3 meetings this season and I'm expecting to see an even uglier, lower-scoring affair than we've seen yet in this Game 1. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in field goal percentage defense and their numbers should be even better in the playoffs when the games slow down. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Jazz -4
Bottom Line: The Nuggets have no incentive to win this game as they are guaranteed the No. 5 seed in the West. As a result, coach Karl has made the decision to rest Afflalo, Nene, K-Mart, Felton and maybe even Gallinari. The reserves will see the majority of the minutes for Denver tonight and that leaves them very susceptible to a blowout, especially since the Jazz have continued to fight hard. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 204
Bottom Line: Coach Thibodeau has said he won't rest his starters, which means I expect a strong effort from the Bulls as they look to go after home court throughout the entire playoffs and avenge a pair of losses to the Knicks. Chicago has allowed New York over the century mark in both meetings this season, so it will really be looking to tighten the screws defensively tonight. Also, Chicago is a perfect 7-0 UNDER when playing a 3rd road game in 5 days this season. We are only seeing a total of 176.6 points scored on average in these games. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Jazz/Hornets UNDER 193.5
Bottom Line: After giving up 111 points to Memphis Sunday, expect the Hornets, which are only allowing 92.3 ppg at home this season, to really dig in here. This will be New Orleans's 3rd game in 4 days, so I expect to see a lot of half-court stuff from Chris Paul and company to save their legs. This has typically been the case in these situations as New Orleans is 20-4 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. We have only seen an average of 180.9 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Thunder/Lakers OVER 189.5
Bottom Line: After 4 straight defeats, this is a game the Lakers really want. Expect them to be very aggressive offensively in the early going to set the tone. Plus, this one figures to be very physical with plenty of fouls, so we should see quite a bit of scoring done at the foul line without the clock moving. Both teams have been unders machines this season, but odds makers have been forced to bring this line down because of it. We saw 195 total points scored in this season's previous meeting in LA and I like this one to reach 200. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 200
Bottom Line: First off, the Jazz are 10-1 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 since Corbin took over. Utah is also 9-1 UNDER when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent) this season. We are only seen an average of 190.3 total points scored in these games. In addition, San Antonio is 12-1 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.5 total points scored in this situation. Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER 203
Bottom Line: Plays Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more - are 143-87 the last 5 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies' last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy TNT Primetime Total on Celtics/Bulls UNDER 179
Bottom Line: Expect the defenses to take center stage in what will feel like a playoff game. Plays Under on all teams (CHICAGO) when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and 60% or more of their games on the season are 43-17 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 171.0 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 12-3 in the Celtics' last 15 overall and 9-3 in the Bulls' last 12 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is also 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Mavericks -4.5
Bottom Line: Letdown spot for the Nuggets after coming up short in a game they really wanted against division rival Oklahoma City last night. Major bounce back spot for Dallas, meanwhile, following 3 straight defeats. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - playing on back-to-back days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record - are 96-55 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/76ers UNDER 212.5
Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - looking to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponents, off a road loss, are 101-51 (66.4%) since 1996. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Bet the Under as Philly brings the "D" at home, where they are only allowing 95.2 ppg this season.

4* Major NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Thunder/Nuggets UNDER 208
Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER), that have gone under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 71-29 since 1996, including 8-1 this season. We are only seeing an average of 198.7 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 10-3 in the Thunder's last 13 overall and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. The Under is also 13-3 in the Nuggets' last 16 overall. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy "Total" MASSACRE on Butler/UConn UNDER 129
Bottom Line: The Under is 5-1 in the Huskies' last 6 overall and 22-10-1 in their last 33 games as a favorite. The Under is 7-3 in the Bulldogs' last 10 NCAA Tournament games and 4-1 in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Also, plays Under on neutral court teams when the total is 129.5 or less (CONNECTICUT) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games - are 50-23 since 1997. We are only seeing an average of 121.2 total points scored in this situation. In addition, Butler doesn't turn the ball over very often and UConn doesn't force many turnovers. When points off turnovers are projected to be low, the Under is usually a strong play. Consider that UConn is 6-0 Under after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers this season. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 216
Bottom Line: Plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season - are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. We are only seeing an average of 205.4 total points scored in this situation. We'll bet the Under.

4* Major Final Four *BLOOD BATH* on Kentucky -2
Bottom Line: The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. UConn may have won the first meeting between these teams back in November, but Kentucky is 8-1 ATS under Coach Cal when playing on the road or neutral court in a revenge game. The Wildcats have won these games by an average score of 75.7 to 64.0. Take Kentucky.

5* Wiseguy Final Four "Total" Massacre on VCU/Butler UNDER 134.5
Bottom Line: Butler has played in 9 NCAA tournament games the last 2 seasons and 7 of those have finished Under the number. Brad Stevens and his staff continue to find ways to get the opposition out of any kind of offensive rhythm and the players are disciplined enough to execute flawlessly. VCU's defense has been terrific as well, holding each of its last 2 opponents to under 37% shooting. This is significant because VCU is on a 10-2 UNDER run when playing away from home after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less. We are only seeing an average of 121.1 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Trail Blazers -2.5
Bottom Line: The Blazers have lost 3 times to OKC this season so they will be out for some series revenge tonight. It's extremely tough to beat any team 4 times in the same season, especially one as good as Portland. The Blazers have won their last 6 home games and are 26-10 in all home contests this season. They really "D" up at the Rose Garden, and I'm confident their defense will earn them the win and cover here. Portland is 11-2 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season. It is winning by an average score of 100.1 to 89.4 in this situation. Bet the Blazers.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Bucks/Pacers UNDER 189.5
Bottom Line: One of the most lucrative trends this season has been to take the Under in Milwaukee games following a game in which the Bucks finishes Over the totals. The Bucks are an awesome 20-6 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs this season, and we are only seeing an average of 182.2 total points scored in these games. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT "Total" MASSACRE on Mavs/Lakers UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers have been at their best defensively against the best competition. In fact, LA is 12-2 UNDER versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. We are only seeing an average of 186.2 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 9-4 in the Lakers' last 13 overall and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 overall. We'll take the Under in what should be a lower scoring defensive battle.

4* Major NIT Championship *BLOOD BATH* on Alabama +2.5
Bottom Line: Wichita State has been cruising right along, but that stops tonight against one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Crimson Tide are quietly 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall. They are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Shockers, meanwhile, are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Take the Tide.

4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout on Thunder/Suns UNDER 212
Bottom Line: Phoenix was killed on the glass by Sacramento last night, which is the biggest reason why it lost the game. Such terrible rebounding efforts have spurred on much better ones for Phoenix this season. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 9-0 UNDER after being outrebounded by 15 or more boards this season. We are only seeing an average of 196.1 total points scored in this situation. Look for Phoenix to get on the boards tonight to limit Oklahoma City's second chance opportunity. The Thunder should score less points as a result. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 210
Bottom Line This is a rare situation we can't afford to pass up. Golden State is 20-9 UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. If the Warriors are playing their second road contest in as many days, this trend tightens up to 16-3 UNDER! The Warriors have been a money UNDERS play on the road all season. Bet the UNDER!

4* Major NBA "Total" Massacre on Suns/Kings OVER 214
Bottom Line: After a pair of lackluster games offensively, expect the Suns to get it going tonight. Phoenix is 13-2 OVER in road games when avenging a home loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. We are seeing an average of 228.3 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on Wichita State -2.5
Bottom Line: The Cougars have really struggled on the road, going just 3-8 in their last 11 games away from home. In addition, Washington State has been a terrible investment in the underdog role. Consider that the Cougars are 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 games when catching points. Wichita State, meanwhile, is 5-1 ATS in itslast 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Also, the Shockers have had a lot more success on the road this season, going 13-4 in all games outside Wichita. The Shockers showed what they are made of when they went into Blacksburg and knocked off the Hokies in the 2nd round of the NIT. We'll lay the points tonight as they handle the Cougars on a neutral floor.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on 76ers/Bulls UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: Under coach Thibodeau, Chicago is 14-2 UNDER when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. The Bulls have really tightened the screws defensively in these spots and we are only seeing an average of 179.1 total points scored in this situation as a result. Bet the UNDER.

4* Major NBA Total Play of the Day on Blazers/Thunder Under 192.5
Bottom Line: Under coach McMillan, Portland is an awesome 10-1 UNDER in road games when checking in off a home no-cover in which they won straight up as a favorite. We are only seeing an average of 184.9 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. The Under is 7-1 in the Thunder's last 8 overall and 12-3-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 16 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 "Total" Blowout on Kentucky/UNC Under 146.5
Bottom Line: UNC is 6-0 UNDER when playing away from home after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing a total of 135.5 points scored on average in this situation. Also, Calipari is 16-5 UNDER when revenging a loss in which his teams' opponent scored 75 or more points in all games he has coached since 1997. We are only seeing 135.4 total points scored on average in this situation. These 2 teams combined for 148 during the regular season, but with the stakes raised this game should have a lot more defensive intensity. Plus, look for Kentucky to take the air out of the ball like it did against Ohio State. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Knicks -4
Bottom Line: Big letdown spot for Charlotte after last night's big come from behind win over Boston. The Knicks, meanwhile, will be out for blood after enduring their 5th straight defeat yesterday. The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bobcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Knicks are the much more talented team and should have their way with Charlotte tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on UConn -2.5
Bottom Line: UConn is a perfect 11-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning these contests by an average score of 78.0 to 66.7. The Huskies are also 8-0 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning these matchups by an average score of 78.9 to 63.2. UConn is 8-1 ATS against Pac 10 conference opponents under coach Calhoun, included 4-0 ATS against Arizona, defeating these foes by an average score of 80.3 to 70.0. Take the Huskies!

4* Major NBA Bailout on Blazers -4
Bottom Line: Without Duncan, the Spurs were able to hang with a defensively challenged Nuggets team the other night. I don't see them hanging here. Portland has won 5 straight at home against the Spurs, including a 13-point win last month. The Blazers have also covered the number in all 5 of those games, winning them by an average score of 99 to 89. Without Duncan, Portland has a big edge on the interior with Aldridge, who scored 40 points against the Spurs the last time he faced them. Expect another big game from him to lead to another comfortable win by Portland.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Kentucky/Ohio State UNDER 141.5
Bottom Line: These are 2 of the premier defensive teams in the country. They match up extremely well, which means both teams should have plenty of success defensively this evening. Kentucky has held its last 8 opponents to an average of 61.3 points while Ohio State has held its last 8 foes to 60.1 points on average. UK is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less and 7-0 UNDER in its last 7 away games versus very good shooting teams making >=48% of their shots. We'll pound the Under as these 2 heavyweights play this game in the 60's.

5* Wiseguy NBA Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Celtics -13
Bottom Line: Motivated by a loss to Memphis last game and a loss to Charlotte last month, expect the Celtics to flex their muscles at home tonight. Boston knows how valuable the home court advantage is in the playoffs, so I don't expect it to just hand it over to the Bulls. A Boston team this motivated should have no problem taking it to a Charlotte squad that has dropped 10 of its last 12 with those 10 defeats coming by 17.5 points on average. Lay the points.

4* Major on Wisconsin -4.5
Bottom Line: Butler could have easily been bounced in the first round but has managed to win by the skin of its teeth. I'm confident, however, that its second straight Cinderella run comes to an end right here. The Bulldogs don't have the size to match up with the Badgers, which means Wisconsin should dominate the boards. Plus, the Badgers don't turn the ball over. So they won't be giving up anything easy in transition. Butler's style has been a major contrast to most teams in the tourney the last 2 years, but Wisconsin plays the same way and is more talented. This leads me to believe the Badgers will be able to wear the Bulldogs down, just as they did to their Big Ten opponents throughout the year. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Wisconsin.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 *BLOOD BATH* on Duke -8.5
Bottom Line: Duke won 4 of its 6 NCAA tournament games by double digits on its way to a national title last year. It is also 6-2 ATS in its last 8 NCAA tournament games as a favorite. With Coach K saying Irving will get significant time, I expect Duke to be way too much for the Wildcats tonight. Duke also has a huge edge in terms of experience on the floor and in the coaches box. The high over/under number is also a good sign as Duke is 11-4 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. It is winning these contests by an average of 13.4 points. Lay the number.

4* Major on San Diego State +1.5
Bottom Line: UConn may have the best player on the floor, but SDSU is a better team. It is more balanced, more experienced and much better defensively. Expect SDSU's length and athleticism to really bother Kemba Walker tonight. The Aztecs also have the good fortune of playing close to home where they will have all the crowd support and no body clock issues. SDSU is 13-4 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Take the Aztecs.