Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Wiseguy Big East GAME OF THE YEAR (ESPN 2) on Providence +1.5
The Friars are an underrated Big East team and they will prove their worth here against a Marquette team that has struggled on the road against good competition. The public is all over the 14th ranked Golden Eagles here but it is going to get burnt badly. Providence is 9-1 at home this season and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. I also like the fact that the Friars are coming off a loss as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Lastly, Marquette is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 65.2 to 73.8 in these spots. Providence takes this one at home.

5* Wiseguy Saturday Night UNDERDOG MONSTER on Bobcats +2.5
The Bobcats are at home and well rested and I have them taking a tired Blazers team to the cleaners Saturday night. Portland is young and therefore has not been mentally tough enough to blossom into a good road team yet. The Trail Blazers are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bobcats are a strong 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog period. In addition the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Take the Bobcats!

3* Big East Heavyweight Bash (ESPN) on Louisville -2.5
I like the Cards to hand Pitt its first loss of the season here. We'll play against road teams as an underdog or pick (PITTSBURGH); an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 57-26 ATS since 1997. Louisville's pressure defense will take Pitt out of its comfort zone and will get the Panthers playing faster than they want to play. Odds makers want the action on Pitt because they are anticipating a Louisville win and we won't get caught in the trap. Lay the number.

3* Pac-10 Power Play on Oregon +1
We'll play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON ST) - poor offensive team - scoring <=64 points/game on the season, after 4 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 33-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Oregon is due for a win in the Pac-10 in the worst way and it gears up to get it here against an offense that won't be able to answer.

4* Major CBB Non-Conference Game of the Week (CBS) on Duke -8.5
The public is quickly taking the points in this one but Georgetown does not matchup up well with the Blue Devils and it does not have the offensive fire power to keep this one in the single digits. This trend says it all: the Blue Devils are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Krzyzewski is 41-26 ATS in home games in non-conference play as the coach of Duke. Lay the number.

3* ESPN Game of the Week on Lakers -4
There's no doubting how good the Magic have been on the road this season but LA is 20-2 at home and this is a huge revenge spot for the Lakers after losing by 3 down in Orlando earlier this season. LA has won 10 of the last 11 at home in this matchup and I think we'll see a letdown from the Magic tonight as they come up against a better team on its home floor. Plays Against - Road teams (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, in non-conference games are 23-5 ATS since 1996. Pound LA!

3* SUREFIRE on Cavs -3
This line has dropped because of Delonte West's injury but I'm still going with the Cavs here as they are yet to lose at home this season. Lebron did not play particularly well last night and he will be that much more focused here as he looks to avenge an earlier season loss at New Orleans. The Cavs are 15-4 ATS at home this season and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss. Take the Cavs!

5* Eastern Conference GOTM on Wizards -2.5
Revenge is the huge factor weighing into my decision here as NY just beat the Wizards 2 days ago at MSG to mark the third times this season that they have edged out Washington by 6 points or less. Washington is overdue for a win and for one against the Knicks and they will leave it all on the floor to make it happen tonight. Washington wants to give its home fans a win and tonight presents the best opportunity before heading out on the road for four games following this one. NY is only 6-14 on the road this season and only 9-24 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are also only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Washington is 24-10 ATS after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1996. Pound the Wiz!

5* Wiseguy NBA Cold Hard REVENGER on Suns +1.5
Both the Lakers and the Spurs shot out of their butts last night to cost us as well as the sportsbooks as our money was on the right side. Now, it's time to get revenge and this is just the play to do it. The Suns win this game straight up so I'll gladly take any points the books give to us here. The big key here is the absence of Carmelo Anthony. The Suns have started to push the ball again and are daring teams to try to outscore them and that's just not going to happen without Melo's 20+ ppg in the lineup. Also, with Marcus Camby no longer a Nugg, the Suns have a huge advantage in the interior with both Shaq and Stoudemire. Shaq is playing as well as he has since winning a title with the Heat. Denver is just 7-18 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing by 6.2 ppg on average in these spots. Bet the Suns!

3* SoCal SUREFIRE on Pepperdine +20
Odds makers are overvaluing San Diego here and we'll look to take advantage. Pepperdine comes in with some nice momentum off back-to-back wins and will have upset on the brain tonight. The Waves are only 1-7 on the road this season but they are 5-3 ATS in those games. San Diego is only 4-3 at home and 2-3 ATS in home lined games so its not like the Toreros have been unbeatable at home. My data base for this matchup goes back to 1998 and the Toreros have not defeated Pepperdine by this many points in any of those games. We'll take the points.

4* Major Pac-10 GOTM on Oregon State +6.5
The Cougars are not capable of beating anyone by margin because of the slowdown style of hoops that they play. This team is very conservative on offense and uses lots of shot clock. It seeks to grind out games and win with defense and that plays right into our hands here, catching 6.5 points. Oregon State has won 8 of the last 11 home meetings in this matchup and will be very focused and hungry tonight at home following back-to-back road defeats. This is a letdown spot for Washington State following a big win over Stanford. The Home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Oregon St. The Cougars are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Pacific-10. Pound the Beavers.

3* Prime Time SUREFIRE (ESPN 2) on Purdue -4.5
Purdue is finally healthy and ready to make a run for the Big Ten title everyone thought they would get. Purdue proved it was ready with a big win over Wiscy in its last game and now the Boilers are ready to steamroll a Northwestern team that has dropped 3 in a row. Purdue is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS versus N'western the last 3 seasons. Purdue is 15-6 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. N'western is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS as a home underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons. Take Purdue!

4* Major Western Conference GOTM on Spurs -2.5
After a home loss to Orlando, I expect the Spurs to bounce back strong tonight, sending a message to the Lakers that they will have to get through them to get back to the Finals and it's not going to be easy. The Lakers have been one of the worst covering teams in the league of late, losing 14 of their last 20 against the number. The key here is just how good the Spurs play defensively against the highest scoring teams in the NBA. SA is 18-6 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 102.8 to 91.1. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Line Mistake of the Year on Lakers/Spurs UNDER 201.5
I liked this one when it opened and now the overs-loving public is giving us even better value by driving the line up. These teams have not exceeded a total score of 199 points in any of their last 11 matchups and with this game being played in San Antonio, where the Spurs always control the tempo, I can't see this one coming close to the number tonight. The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in San Antonio and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. The Under is 15-4 in Spurs last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 12-2 in Spurs last 14 vs. NBA Pacific. The Under is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 games as a road underdog. Pound the Under!

3* SUREFIRE on Iowa State -1.5
Iowa State is an outstanding home team and it comes in playing very good basketball, sticking right with Texas on the road. The Huskers have not been a very good road team for some time now and the Hilton Magic will be too much for them to handle tonight. ISU is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS versus Nebraska over the last 3 seasons. It is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home in all games with the Huskers since 1997. ISU is 19-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997 while Nebraska is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. Take ISU.

4* Major Big East BLOOD BATH of the Month on Syracuse +6 (ESPN 2)
The Hoyas have reached the point of being overrated and certainly do not deserve this much respect against a Syracuse team that is 16-1 and has won 13 of the last 19 meetings in this series. G-town is 11-26 ATS in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997, 8-19 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game since 1997, and 15-30 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game since 1997. Cuse wins this one outright!

3* SUREFIRE (Big Ten Network) on Michigan State -5
Michigan State is rolling and it has already sent messages to Minnesota and Northwestern on the road with double digit wins. Michigan State has won 15 of the last 17 matchups in this series since 1997. It is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Michigan State is 9-1 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons so I don't expect Penn State's 3-point shooting to be an issue. What will be an issue is Penn State getting dominated on the boards. Penn State is 4-13 ATS in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game since 1997, losing by 10+ in these spots. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA REVENGER on Magic -8
One characteristic of bad teams is that they rarely put together good performance in back-to-back games. After a big outright win over Dallas, I expect the Kings to fall flat on their face tonight against one of the best road teams in the NBA. The Kings have not won back-to-back games since early November. The Magic are 26-12 ATS in all games this season and are 14-5 SU and ATS in road games this year. Orlando is playing with tons of confidence right now and it will not allow the Kings to be a road bump. Orlando is 15-4 ATS in non-conference games this season, 15-3 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season, and 14-4 ATS after playing a road game this season. We'll back the Magic tonight.

3* NBA Total of the Week on Hawks/Suns OVER 212
The Suns offense is playing as well as it has all season, scoring 100 or more points in 13 of their last 14 games and breaking the 110-point mark in 8 of those games. Phoenix is 11-1 OVER in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these games was 113.3 to 108. The Suns have decided to speed up their play again and it is working, but at the same time the defense is allowing more points because of it. I like this one to reach a total of at least 220 so we'll take the over.

5* MVC GOTM on Indiana State +2.5
I love the Sycamores in the home dog role tonight. First off, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Sycamores are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less and 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home underdog period. The Braves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Braves have been overachieving to this point but they will get a hard dose of reality tonight in a building where they have only won 3 times in the last 11 matchups. Pound the Sycamores as we get some nice revenge for last night's big NBA loss!

4* Major Big Monday BOMB on Oklahoma -4
The Horns have won 5 straight over the last 3 seasons against the Sooners and now that OU has the superior team, I expect it to really go for the kill. OU is 15-1 with one of the best players in the country in Blake Griffin and I don't see a Texas team that has struggled on the road against good team having an answer for him tonight. OU is 9-0 at home averaging 83.7 ppg in those contests. After a poor performance against an inferior K-State team Saturday (scoring only 61 points), the Sooners will have added motivation to play much better here. Coach Barnes' team is just 3-11 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% after 15+ games as the coach of TEXAS, losing these games by an average score of 72.6 to 82.9. Take OU!

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog of the Year on Bulls +3
I love the Bulls in the home dog role here. Odds makers are extremely confident that Chicago will win this one outright and have given the Bulls a few insurance points as well because they know that the betting public will be all over the Blazers. While Portland has a better record on the season, it is just 8-10 on the road and only 6-12 ATS in those games. The Bulls have struggled away from home but are a strong 12-6 at the United Center. This is an extreme bounce back spot for the Bulls after losing at home to the worst team in the NBA (OKC Thunder). This is also a huge revenge spot as the Bulls were beaten severely, 116-74 in Portland on November 19. The Trail Blazers are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 Monday games while the Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games. The Trail Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Bulls!

3* ESPN Big Monday BEATDOWN on Notre Dame +6.5
The Irish are the hands down better team and should not be catching this many points, especially in this spot. Saturday's 1-point win over Nova was a very physically and emotionally straining contest and it will lead to an inevitable letdown for the Cards. L'Ville is 8-20 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1997, winning by only 4.0 ppg on average in these spots. The Irish have an excellent opportunity to beat the Cards and we wil take them with the points here.

3* Pac-10 Rivalry Game of the Week on UCLA -1.5
While USC has played its same city rivals pretty tough of late, losing by 10 and 3 points in the last 2 meetings, I have the Trojans coming up short again so I will make the lay here. UCLA has won 4 of the last 5 meetings over the last 3 seasons. UCLA is 11-3 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, 25-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997, and 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Shipp and Collison will be the difference. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference GOTM on Magic +3
I'll gladly take the better team catching 3 points here. Orlando is one of the best road teams in the NBA with a 13-5 SU and ATS record. The Spurs are 14-6 at home but only 8-11-1 ATS in those games. Orlando already has a 12-point home win over the Spurs this season in a game where they held San Antonio to only 78 points. Orlando is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons, 14-4 ATS in non-conference games this season, and 12-1 ATS after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less over the last 3 seasons. Take the Magic.

3* Under the Radar Blowout on Rider -5.5
Off a 10-point loss at Siena, I like a good Rider team to bounce back at home Sunday. Rider has dominated this matchup, winning 5 of the last 6 SU and covered the spread in 4 of those meetings. Rider is also 5-1 at home this season while Iona is just 3-7 on the road. The Gaels are only 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Rider and the Broncs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. Rider by double digits!

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BLOOD BATH on T-Wolves -1
While Milwaukee has a better record on the season, it's all about what have you done for me lately when capping the NBA. The Wolves have won 4 straight and 6 in a row ATS. They also have the advantage of 3 days rest over a Bucks teams which just played last night. The Wolves have won 9 of the last 12 in this matchup and they will give your bookie a blood bath tonight.

3* Underdog SUREFIRE on Detroit +20
Butler is 13-1, ranked, and heavily overvalued. The Bulldogs are yet to beat any team by more than 20 points and after a big win in a rivalry game with Wright State, they'll be in letdown mode here. Take the points.

4* Major Big East Surprise BLOWOUT on Marquette -2.5
WVU has had all kinds of trouble with teams that are very good on the perimeter and Marquette certainly is that. The Mountaineers are down a key player in Joe Mazzulla and that is going to make it impossible for them to compete on the road here. Marquette is 11-0 at home and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. I like the Eagles by Double Digits here. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Road Warrior of the Week on Heat -4
Plain and simple, the best player in the NBA this season, Dwayne Wade, is not going to let his team go down to a Kings team that is 1-10 in its last 11 games. Miami is 4-1 SU and ATS versus the Kings over the last 3 seasons and is 19-4 ATS versus the Kings since 1996. Miami has already crushed Sac 103-77 this season and it will be 8-10 points better tonight. Lay the number.

3* Friday Night NBA Line Mistake on Thunder +7
Plain and simple, the odds makers have undervalued the Thunder yet again because they know the public will continue to fade this team, especially after it was just drilled in its last game. The reality is that the Thunder have covered 8 of their last 10 and 17 of their last 23. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout of the Month on Hornets -15.5
The stars have aligned for us here. We get an undermanned Clippers team that just played on the road in San Antonio last night against a Hornets team that will be ready to take out its frustrations over a 26-point loss to Utah two days ago. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Hornets win this one by 30. The Clippers have lost 9 in a row and are struggling mightily without Davis, Kaman, and Randolph as I highlighted yesterday. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season. New Orleans is 13-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 18-6 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Hornets!

4* Major Pac-10 Power Play on Washington State pk
Washington State is 3-1 SU and ATS against Cal the past two seasons and I like the Cougars tonight as they will be out for revenge after getting kicked by rival Washington. This one all boils down to defense as Washington State is making a statement that it is among the elite CBB defenses yet again, allowing only 49.4 ppg at home this season. Offensively, I expect better from the Cougars tonight against a team that is allowing 74.2 ppg on the road. WSU is 7-0 ATS after scoring 55 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. Take the Cougars.

4* Major NBA Thursday Night BEST BET on Spurs -13
LA is going without Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, and Zach Randolph tonight, in other words, the majority of their scoring. The only way the Spurs don't embarrass the Clipps tonight is if they are ice cold and I don't see that happening at home. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Pacific and 8-1 ATS after a non-conference game this season. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA GOTM on Jazz -4
This is an exceptional spot to take one of the NBA's best home teams against a Hornets team that is in a major letdown spot following a big win over the Lakers. The Jazz are 13-4 at home this season and have beaten the Hornets 11 times in their last 14 meetings at home. The Jazz are 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 15-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Here's the kicker: NO is 2-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1996,losing by 13.7 ppg in these spots. In addition, the Hornets played last night and then had to travel. I'll take the fresher Jazz at home.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Bobcats/Cavs UNDER 182.5
This line opened at 178 and is now up 4.5 points. Odds makers hope the over keeps right on getting pounded because they know that the under is the smart money play. In two previous meetings this season, these teams have combined for just 175 and 168 points with the Bobcats scoring in the 70's both times. Both of those were blowout losses for the Cats. Charlotte is 12-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season. Here's the bread winner: Cleveland is 229-26 UNDER when they allow 86 or less points in a game since 1996. The average score in these spots totals just 167.7. Take the Under.

3* Big East SUREFIRE on Cincy -3
The Bearcats are in a huge revenge spot following a 34-point loss to Marquette. They return home tonight to erase the sour taste of that defeat from their mouths where they are 9-1 this season. Providence is only 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season and this one has all the making of a blowout for the Friar tonight. Providence is 1-10 ATS in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.

4* Major CBB Underdog Shocker of the Week on Indiana +7.5
Michigan has the better team, but it has had next to no success against the Hoosiers. IU is a perfect 9-0 at home vs. Michigan since 1997 and has won 16 of the last 20 overall meetings during that span. The Hoosiers have played with tons of energy and heart in front of their faithful this season and are 4-2 in Bloomington. IU also has the coaching edge tonight as Creen consistently gets the most out of his players. It comes as no surprise that Crean is 16-6 ATS as a home underdog or pick in all games he has coached since 1997,losing by just .6 ppg on average in these spots. He nearly led the Hoosiers to a big road win as a 13 point dog at Iowa in their Big Ten opener and he will have his boys ready to compete again tonight. Take the points as the Hoosiers have an excellent chance to shock the Wolverines.

4* Major Public Opinion GOTM on Purdue -2
The numbers tell the story here. The Boilermakers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games, and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Nittany Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or fewer. Last but not least, the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Lay the number.

3* SUREFIRE on Bradley +3
Bradley will be jacked up to take on an undefeated Illinois State team and I like the Braves to hand the Red Birds their first loss of the season. Bradley is 11-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, 7-0 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons, and 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Public Massacre of the Month on Bobcats +9
Boston is in a bit of a funk, having lost 4 of its last 6. While I think the Celtics rebound to get a win here, it won't be easy and they won't come close to covering the number. While Boston has won 6 of 9 meetings between these teams over the last 3 seasons, it is Charlotte that is 7-2 ATS in those games. Boston barely edged out the Bobcats 89-84 in Charlotte in an earlier meeting this season also. The Underdog is a perfect 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Bobcats!

3* CBB Underdog SUREFIRE on Wofford +19
We'll catch the Gamecocks looking a head with a SEC matchup coming up next as the trend of SC being overvalued continues. The Terriers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Southeastern, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. The Gamecocks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy CBB GOTM on Notre Dame -2.5
Notre Dame got caught looking ahead in its last game and that will put an even larger chip on its shoulder when it takes on the Hoyas tonight. The Irish are perfect at home and they will be ready to bury and Georgetown team that is not as good as it has been the past couple seasons. You will see that Notre Dame has big advantages on the glass and with its three-point shooting. The Hoyas were pounded by Pitt in their last game and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Lay the number.

3* ACC SUREFIRE on VA Tech +15
With the Dukies looking ahead to Davidson, I'll side with a VA Tech team here that beat the Blue Devils on the road last season. The Hokies have covered 7 straight in the ACC while the Devils are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Duke is being overvalued again. Take the points.

3* Sunday NBA BEST BET on Cavs -9
Cleveland has dropped 3 of its last 4 ATS or we would be laying double digits here. It's time to jump back on the Cavs who are 23-9 ATS in all games this season. Washington played Cleveland to a tough 4-point game on X-Mas day but I expect the Cavs to send a message here. Lay the points.

4* Major Big Ten BLOWOUT of the Week on Michigan -1.5
With Michigan out to avenge a home loss to Wisconsin and with Illinois coming off a huge win over Purdue to put it in a letdown spot, I'll take the Wolverines at home big today. The Illini are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games in Ann Arbor and the home team has covered the number in 15 of the last 17 meetings. Home court is huge in college hoops and this is definitely a time to take the homer.

3* SUREFIRE on Illinois State -1.5
I like 13-0 Illinois State to stay unbeaten. Creighton is just 2-2 in true road games,losing to Ark LR and Nebraska teams that are not as good as Illinois State. The Red Birds have beaten the Jays by at least 10 points in each of the last 3 meetings and have covered the spread 4 straight times against Creighton. Creighton plays solid defense, but Illinois State is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season, winning by an average score of 78 to 62.7. Take State.

4* Major CBB Underdog Dagger of the Week on Samford +24
Davidson has lost 3 in a row and yet the odds makers continue to overvalued this team. With Duke up next, I fully expect the Wildcats to get caught looking ahead here. Plays against favorites of 20 or more points; a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential) are 63-33 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

3* SUREFIRE on Akron +9.5
Akron is 13-3 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Akron beat a Farleigh Dickinson team by 44 that Rhode Island only beat by 15 and both teams were at FD. The Zips have an excellent shot at winning this one outright. We'll take the points.

3* NBA Dog of the Day on Thunder +8
Denver has not been at its best lately, losing 5 of its last 9. The Thunder continue to lose, yet they also cover, as odds makers continue to take advantage of the public fading them. We won't get caught in that trap here. The Thunder have covered the number in 15 of their last 20 and 6 of their last 7. We'll take the points.

4* Major Public Massacre of the Month on Harvard +3.5
I like the Crimson outright against an overvalued SC team. SC has not been good on the road this season with just a 2-6 mark and it is going to be extremely difficult for the Broncos to get the job done clear across the country against an underrated Harvard side. The Broncos are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record while the Crimson are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the points.

3* NBA New Year's Eve Line Mistake on Thunder +3
The wrong team is favored in this matchup. We won't complain, we'll just take advantage. The Thunder may have a terrible record, but is has covered 14 of its last 19 games and faces a Warriors team that is just 4-16 on the road this season. The Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference GOTW on Blazers +4.5
The public is pounding the Celtics which means that odds makers have them right where they want them. Portland has home court and rest in its favor and it will most definitely get up for a Boston team that beat them earlier this month. Recent losses by the C's to LA and Golden State will give the Blazers a little bit more confidence tonight as Boston has not looked so invincible on this road trip. Portland is 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS at home. Portland is 31-14 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 20-9 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. You might even be able to get this one at a bit better line as the public pounds Boston, but I'll lock in here to get this one out to you guys. Take the points.

3* SUREFIRE on Oklahoma -5.5
This line is a little soft so I won't hesitate to take the Sooners. Arkansas may be 9-1, but it has not played anyone yet. Blake Griffin and company will give the Hogs a wake up call tonight. OU is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and won by 11 in last year's meeting as a 4-point home favorite. The Sooners are much better than they were a season ago and Arkansas won't be ready for it. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Fave of the Week on T-Wolves -2
Minnesota has lost 9 straight and the Wolves will leave it all out on the floor to pick up a win against a team they know they can beat. Memphis is only 2-12 on the road this season and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a road underdog. The Timberwolves are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. We'll lay the points as the Wolves finally break through tonight.