Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Wiseguy Western Conference Finals GOTY on Lakers -6.5
Denver comes in off a long layoff and must play on the road where it is just 2-2 in the postseason and 6-11 in its last 17. LA owns the Nugs, having won 24 of their last 26 at home against them, and it is 7-1 SU and ATS at home against Denver the last 3 seasons. With the way LA was hit in the mouth last series in Game 1 by the Rockets, there's no way LA is going to let that happen again. Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 73-37 ATS since 1996. Take the Lakers!

5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Playoffs Parlay of the Year on Celtics -2.5/OVER 186
The Celtics are 17-3 in Game 7's at home and 32-0 when leading a series 3-2. The only thing I could come up with for why Boston wouldn't win Game 7 was that Orlando is the younger team with fresher legs, but having 2 days off should give the Celtics plenty of time to recover. Boston is 21-6 ATS at home versus Orlando since 1996. Boston is 40-8 SU at home this season and I'll take the Celtics here as they are much more experienced in these critical Game 7 situations.

The Over is 25-8 in the Celtics last 33 games as a home favorite, 16-5-1 in their last 22 games playing on 2 days rest, and 13-3 in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Boston is also 17-6 Over in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 107.7, OPPONENT 98.1. Bet the Celtics and the Over!

5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Playoffs Parlay of the Year on Celtics -2.5/OVER 186
The Celtics are 17-3 in Game 7's at home and 32-0 when leading a series 3-2. The only thing I could come up with for why Boston wouldn't win Game 7 was that Orlando is the younger team with fresher legs, but having 2 days off should give the Celtics plenty of time to recover. Boston is 21-6 ATS at home versus Orlando since 1996. Boston is 40-8 SU at home this season and I'll take the Celtics here as they are much more experienced in these critical Game 7 situations.

The Over is 25-8 in the Celtics last 33 games as a home favorite, 16-5-1 in their last 22 games playing on 2 days rest, and 13-3 in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Boston is also 17-6 Over in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 107.7, OPPONENT 98.1. Bet the Celtics and the Over!

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Fool's Gold GOTY on Magic -6.5
Boston has won 2 straight games in this series that have gone right down to the wire so the public is taking the points and at the same time taking the bait. Despite the public being on Boston the line has moved the other way and that means that odds makers are looking to get paid with a big Magic win and cover tonight. I expect Orlando to come out of the gate with an intensity and a sense of urgency in this must-win spot that the Celtics won't be able to match. Orlando was so frustrated after its Game 5 loss that star center Dwight Howard called out his coach. Expect to see him and his teammates out for blood here. History tells us to fade the hell out of Boston tonight as plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having won 3 of their last 4 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 72-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Magic!

5* Wiseguy Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Nuggets -8.5
Denver does not want to make the trip back to Dallas so I have no doubts that it will take care of the Mavs tonight. The Nuggets know they blew a golden opportunity to put Dallas away in Game 4 by blowing a double digit lead and they will not let this opportunity pass them by. Denver is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season, winning by an average score of 113 to 97.9 in these games. According to closing lines, Denver is 9-0 ATS in the playoffs this season and 7-0 ATS when leading in a playoff series this season. Dallas showed a lot of heart in Game 4, but it's going to be a different story on the road when Denver hits the Mavs in the mouth early. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Public Massacre of the Year on Rockets/Lakers UNDER 198
I expect an all out battle tonight in this critical Game 5 matchup and the UNDER will be the result. The public is all over the over here, and that is right where the odds makers want it so it can get paid big. We'll side with the house. The Lakers have played to the UNDER in 5 of their last 7 and the Rockets have played to the UNDER in 6 of their last 8. The Lakers are 8-0 UNDER after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. LA's ball movement has not been good and you are not going to see the Lakers put up big point totals when this is the case. While most expect to see LA score more in this bounce back game, it is actually its defense which picks up in bounce back spots. The Under is 15-3-1 in the Lakers last 19 games following an ATS loss and 13-3 in the Lakers last 16 games following a SU loss. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Playoffs BLOOD BATH on Celtics -2
After regaining home court on a thrilling buzzer beater, Boston takes the momentum back home for Game 5. Boston is now back in position to win this series and I can't see it letting the Magic walk away with a win in front of its pumped up home crowd tonight. Expect Ray Allen to come alive and for the C's to get the job done. The Magic are just 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Boston. Here's the icing on the cake: Boston is 16-4 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season, exploding to win in these spots by 11.2 points on average. Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 2nd Round GOTY on Cavs -10
Atlanta gave Cleveland its best shot in Game 3, and it just wasn't good enough as Cleveland rallied to a 15-point win. The Hawks know they can't win this series and I don't expect them to provide much opposition tonight. Cleveland felt great coming into this series because it was well rested after sweeping its first round series. It will gladly sit back and watch while Orlando and Boston battle it out. The Cavs are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have now covered 11 in a row dating back to the regular season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lay the points.

4* Major Game 4 BLOOD BATH (TNT) on Boston Celtics +5
Boston wins Game 4 outright to even this series tonight. Boston is 17-6 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, 15-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, and 13-4 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Celtics in this bounce back spot!

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Line Mistake on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194
Without Yao Ming in the lineup for Houston, the Rockets will play a lot faster and that should play to the over this afternoon. Plus, I expect the Lakers to get a lot more high percentage shots at the rim without Yao clogging the lane. We've seen back-to-back games go over the number easily in this series and the total has not been adjusted enough to compensate for that or Yao's absence. The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points while it is 6-2 in the Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Over!

5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Cavs/Hawks UNDER 180.5
The public is all over the Over here and it is going to get absolutely burned tonight. I expect this game to be very similar to Game 3 in the Cavs 1st round series in Detroit where the Cavs scored only 79 points. They are going to get Atlanta's best shot tonight and that is very conducive to the Under. 4 of the L5 have played to the Under on Cleveland and 8 of the L11 have played to the Under on the Hawks. Here's the key: Atlanta is 19-4 UNDER when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. Plus, the Under is 15-5 in the Cavaliers last 20 Conference Semifinals games, 10-3 in the Hawks last 13 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound the Under!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Night on Celtics/Magic OVER 189
Boston hasn't been as good defensively on the road in these playoffs, and I expect to see an uptempo game tonight with the Magic playing on their home floor where they are averaging 100.8 ppg this season. Since Garnett has been out, the Celtics have shifted into a strong Overs team, going 13-3 over in their last 16 games. Plays Over on Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO) - after allowing 110 points or more are 30-7 since 1996. Bet the Over!

4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" HEAT CHECK on Hawks/Cavs OVER 178
I've been waiting to impatiently to play this one as I was expecting a low number and plays OVER in the second round of the playoffs in Game 2 of a playoff series are a jaw-dropping 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Pound the Over!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Night on Rockets/Lakers OVER 192.5
The Lakers played about as poorly as they can play and the Game 1 total only went under by a half-point. Odds makers have faced us with the same number again tonight and I look for the Lakers and Rockets to destroy it as LA speeds up the tempo in this one. Plays over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series, are 28-6 the last 5 seasons. I'll go with the numbers in this one.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Hawks/Cavs UNDER 180
The books are begging for action on the over with this line and they have got it from the public. We won't bite as I expect a defensive battle tonight. The Hawks haven't scored well on the road all season long, especially in the playoffs. The long layoff will likely disrupt Cleveland's offensive rhythm just like it did the Lakers' last night as well. Play Under - All teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (CLEVELAND) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Tuesday nights are 77-35 since 1996. Bet the Under.

3* SUREFIRE on Lakers -8
The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS versus the Lakers this season with both home winners coming by at least 12 points, and I expect this trend to continue. If Ron Artest and Shane Battier couldn't really stop Brandon Roy, there's no way they will be able to slow down Kobe. Plus, Yao Ming doesn't have a cake walk this series as Bynum and Gasol will make him work at both ends of the floor. The Lakers are 16-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Bet LA tonight.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Playoffs GOTY on Celtics -2.5
Boston is 17-7 SU and 19-5 ATS at home versus Orlando since 1996. Boston is 38-7 at home this season, and I'll take the C's to prevail at home in Game 1. Only way Orlando wins this one is if they are raining threes and they haven't shot them that well in the playoffs. Boston has a huge advantage at the point with Rondo and I expect it to really feed off of a jacked up crowd still buzzing over its Game 7 win. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest so I expect rust to be more of a factor for the Magic than lack of rest will be for Boston. The Magic are 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Boston. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Lay the number.

4* Major National TV Game of the Week on Nuggets -5.5
Denver has been next to unbeatable at home this season with a 36-8 home record. When you consider that the Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this matchup and the Nuggets are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, there's really no other way to look. Dallas looked pretty good against a slow, aged, and injured Spurs team in round one, but it won't be able to hang with the young, athletic Nuggets on the road today. Lay the number.

4* Major Game 7 Line Mistake on Bulls +6.5
With 5 of the 6 games in this series being decided by 3 or less points and with 4 of the games going into OT, we have to take the points here. This says it all for me; The Celtics are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Bulls are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Take the points!

3* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Hawks/Heat UNDER 182.5
The key to this call has to do with the pace of this series and it has not been conducive to getting up many shots. Miami is 17-5 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 70 or less shots since 1996. The average score in this spot has totaled 176.1 points. The Under gets the call.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Double Digit Blood Bath on 76ers -5.5
The Magic haven't look good on the road with Howard and Lee in this series, and they are going to have a very difficult time without them tonight against a 76ers team which loves to attack the basket. The Magic are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southeast. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Underdog of the Year on Hornets +11
New Orleans' 58-point Game 4 loss sets up a great opportunity in Game 5 as it has forced odds makers to elevate the line and the public is still all over the Nuggets. We'll go against the grain with the points as the Hornets look to save face and extend the series. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after allowing 85 points or less against an opponent after allowing 110 points or more are 73-39 ATS since 1996. I don't expect Chris Paul to go down without a stellar performance tonight and that keeps the Hornets close enough to cover this big number.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Letdown Game of the Month on Celtics -7.5
This is a huge letdown spot for the young Bulls as they head out on the road after winning a double OT thriller. Boston does not want to face elimination at Chicago in Game 6 so you can count on the Celtics taking care of business here. The close games in this series have turned the public's attention to the underdog which is exactly what the books hoped to accomplish with this line. I'm ready to go against the grain for an easy double digit victory tonight. Here's the key: Plays on Home teams - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less are 28-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Vegas Line Mistake on Nuggets +2.5
The Nuggets are the far superior team in this series. The Nuggets played awful in Game 3 while the Hornets played well and Denver only fell by 2. The Nuggets take Game 4 to take a commanding lead in this series. Here's the key: New Orleans is just 4-13 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season, losing these games outright by 5.1 ppg on average. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Nuggets!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Public Massacre on Hawks +5
After back-to-back double digit defeats, this is basically a do or die game for a Hawks team which I feel is better than the Heat. I like Atlanta to rise to the occasion tonight and the numbers say it'll do just that as it is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 12-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. The public is all over the Heat tonight and they are going to get burned!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Orlando Magic -4
This is a do-or-die game for the Magic, and I expect them to come away with a double digit win here. Orlando is 27-9 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win in this situation by an average score of 104.2 to 92.5. Lay the points!

4* Major Saturday NBA Playoffs BLOOD BATH on Spurs +4.5
Have to back the Spurs in this bounce back spot after playing one of their worst games in franchise history. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. San Antonio wins this one outright so I'll take the points!

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs First Round GOTY on Rockets -5.5
I love the Rockets at home tonight where they are 33-8 on the season with an 8.9-point margin of victory. The Trail Blazers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Lay the number tonight!

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT GOTY on Lakers -1.5
The Lakers have their eye on the prize and I expect them to make quick work of a Jazz team that is clearly struggling as evidenced by the fact that it has now lost 9 of its last 11 games. Not only are the Lakers more experienced and more determined this time around, they are a better team with Bynum on the floor. He is a luxury they did not have a year ago. The Jazz are an awful 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Bet the Lakers!

4* Major Wednesday Night NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Hornets +6
The Hornets show some resiliency and bounce back strong tonight behind a big performance by Chris Paul. New Orleans has proven to be a very solid bounce back bet at 18-7 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons, and 18-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. I won't hesitate to grab the points in this one.

3* SUREFIRE on Magic -10.5
The Magic led by an many as 18 points in Game 1 before taking their foot off the gas pedal to give the game away. They are the much more talented team and I expect them to run up the score as they play with a greater sense of urgency tonight. Orlando is a superb 18-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and 13-2 ATS revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Lay the number.

3* SUREFIRE on Rockets/Blazers OVER 183.5
Portland is an unbeaten 7-0 Over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season and 9-1 Over as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Both of these trends have seen the total score go over the 200 point mark on average. I'll bet the Over.

3* SUREFIRE on Pistons/Cavs OVER 178
Game 1 went easily over the total and I expect to see Game 2 make it easily over as well as the Pistons play much better on the offensive end tonight. Here's the key: Plays over on all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (DETROIT) off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 70-33 over since 1996. Take the over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Revenge GOTM on Pistons +11.5
Everyone has already penciled the Cavs into the 2nd round and no one expects them not to head to Detroit up 2 games to none, but this is a veteran Pistons team that plays with a lot of pride and I fully expect them to give the Cavs a run for their money tonight. Detroit is 16-5 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons and 13-3 ATS in a road game where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points over the last 2 seasons while Cleveland is 0-9 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games since 1996. Bet the Pistons!

4* Major Game 2 Line Mistake on Mavs +6.5
The Mavs come into the playoffs playing their best ball of the season and completely dominated the Spurs in Game 1. Odds makers proceed to favor the Spurs by even more in game 2. This bounce back spot is not worth 2.5 points as I feel strongly that the Mavs take game 2 as well. The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in San Antonio and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Spurs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. San Antonio clearly isn't the same team without Ginobli. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night NBA Playoffs BLOWOUT on Celtics -8
Derrick Rose and the Bulls played as well as they can in Game 1 while Ray Allen and Paul Pierce did not play up to their capability and the Celtics still win if Pierce hits that free throw at the end of the game. With everyone doubting Boston with Garnett out, expect the Celtics to prove that they are still title contenders with a blowout performance tonight. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Here's the clincher: Boston is 17-7 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 104.3 to 89.9 in these spots. Lay the number!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Parlay on Heat/Hawks UNDER 186.5/-5
Odds makers are begging for action on the over with this number, setting the total 5 points lower than we saw on any of the 4 matchups between these teams this season. The fact is that the most points these teams combined for was 174 though. Here's the key: Atlanta is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a Win Pct. between 51% and 60% this season. The average total score in these games was just 180 points. This one will be played in the 80's so I'm taking the under.

The Hawks are the all around better team on both sides of the ball with a deeper bench so I'll gladly lay the points in game 1. The Hawks performed well in the postseason a year ago and they will be ready to send a message right out of the gate that they are a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs. The Hawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Hawks are too athletic and too good defensively for the Heat to have a shot tonight. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Parlay on Heat/Hawks UNDER 186.5/-5
Odds makers are begging for action on the over with this number, setting the total 5 points lower than we saw on any of the 4 matchups between these teams this season. The fact is that the most points these teams combined for was 174 though. Here's the key: Atlanta is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a Win Pct. between 51% and 60% this season. The average total score in these games was just 180 points. This one will be played in the 80's so I'm taking the under.

The Hawks are the all around better team on both sides of the ball with a deeper bench so I'll gladly lay the points in game 1. The Hawks performed well in the postseason a year ago and they will be ready to send a message right out of the gate that they are a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs. The Hawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Hawks are too athletic and too good defensively for the Heat to have a shot tonight. Lay the points.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Playoffs Bailout on Blazers -4.5
The Blazers come into the playoffs hitting on all cylinders and they won't be denied at home in game 1 where they are 34-7 this season. Plus, the fact that the Rockets won the last 2 meetings in this matchup only fuels their fire. Portland is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season, winning by 10.9 points per game in these spots. Lay the points!

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Rd Total of the Year on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 185.5
I like the Spurs stingy defense at home coupled with the fact that Dallas has not scored as well on the road to keep this one under the number with ease. The Under is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 road games and 12-2 in Mavericks last 14 games as an underdog. The Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 playoff games as a favorite and 13-6 in Spurs last 19 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series in San Antonio. Bet the Under in game 1.

3* Eastern Conference Playoffs Statement Game on Cavs -12
Look for the Cavs to make a serious statement in Game 1. Cleveland is winning by an average of 14.3 ppg at home this season. The Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater and the Favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Lay the number!

4* Major Regular Season Finale (ESPN) on Mavs +1
I like the Mavs at home in this regular season finale tonight as they have a chance to keep the Rockets from a division title and to move up to a No. 6 seed. Houston has played just .500 ball on the road this season while the Mavs are a healthy 31-9 at home. The Rockets are just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss. Bet Dallas tonight.

3* SUREFIRE on 76ers -5.5
Boston has no incentive to win this game with the No. 2 seed already in the bag. Philly has a huge incentive to win, however, as it looks to end a 5-game losing streak to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs. The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Double Digit Blood Bath on Hawks -7.5
I've spotted another double digit blood bath in the making in the Heat/Hawks matchup tonight. The Heat will be without a good amount of scoring tonight with Jermaine O'Neal expected to sit. Wade is expected to sit as well to rest up before the playoffs and the Heat have no chance without him on the floor. Even if he plays, his minutes will be limited. This is Atlanta's last home game of the season and it will be looking to send a message to the Heat tonight as they will face them in the first round. The Heat will gladly give up the decisive loss to rest its banged up players and to let the Hawks think the series will be a cake walk. The Hawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Double Digit BLOOD BATH of the Year on Rockets -8
Houston is tied with the Spurs for the top spot in the Southwest so they have plenty of motivation to win tonight. This is Houston's last home game of the season and they will be playing it with 3 days rest while the struggling Hornets just played yesterday. Houston has been unstoppable at home this season at 32-8. The Hornets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The public is all over the Hornets in this one, but they are failing to take into consideration how big of an edge Houston has in the fresh legs department and also how much teams get up for their last home game of the season. Total blowout tonight. Lay the points!

4* Major Sunday NBA Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Heat -6.5
Off back-to-back defeats, I expect the Heat to be out for blood Sunday. Adding to the strength of this play is the fact that the Knicks are coming off a big double digit win over the Magic as a double digit dog so we find them in a letdown spot today. Miami has plenty to play for as it is looking to pin down the No. 5 seed to avoid Boston or Orlando in the playoffs. Lay the points in this situation.

5* Wiseguy NBA Public Opinion Game of the Year on Magic -5.5
After a terrible performance against the Knicks last night, the public will be expecting the Magic to bounce back strong tonight and I have to agree with them 100 percent. This team has not been playing very well its last 4 games since crushing the Cavs and last night's loss to a non-playoff team was the wake up call the Magic needed. New Jersey is just 7-17 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 12.6 points in these games. New Jersey is 0-8 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 90.3 to 106.5. Lastly, Orlando is 10-1 ATS in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 108.2 to 95.5. The defensive intensity picks up for the Magic tonight and I expect them to take the ball much more aggressively to the hoop instead of settling for so many threes and the result will be a double digit win.

3* SUREFIRE on Spurs -3
The Spurs have won 19 straight at home against the Jazz and after a poor performance at home against the Blazers last game, I expect the Spurs to get back on track tonight. Not only have the Jazz lost these 19 straight road games to the Spurs, but they have lost them by an average of 16.1 ppg. Utah has struggled on the road all season and we will continue to fade them away from home.

4* Major NBA Underdog of the Month on Knicks +11
The Knicks have played the Magic to within 7 points in each of their 3 games against each other this season. Having lost all 3 of those games and coming off a terrible performance against the Pistons will have New York very motivated tonight. We'll play on any team after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against an opponent after a combined score of 160 points or less as this system is 23-5 ATS (82.1%) over the last 5 seasons. Great spot to back the Knicks tonight.

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time Punisher on Lakers -9
The Lakers own the Nuggets at home and they will be very motivated tonight for a couple reasons. First off, they are fighting with Cleveland for home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Secondly, they will be looking to pay Denver back after an embarrassing 79-90 defeat at Denver the last time these teams faced off. LA is 6-1 SU and ATS at home versus the Nuggets the last 3 seasons and 23-2 SU and 17-6-2 ATS at home against the Nuggets since 1996. In all, the Lakers are 10-4 SU and ATS versus Denver the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 15-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season while the Nuggets are 5-16 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy 2009 NBA GOTY on Hornets -2.5
The Suns are done. We saw it when they laid down against the Mavs in a must win game last time out and got spanked 116-140. The Hornets have owned the Suns, going a perfect 8-0 ATS against them the last 3 seasons and they will be ready to roll tonight at home as they look to try to snatch the No. 4 seed in the West by season's end to lock up home court in the first round. Phoenix is 6-14 ATS as a road underdog this season, losing by an average score of 106.5 to 115. The Hornets are 23-10-2 ATS in their last 35 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day and 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest so don't expect the back-to-back to give them much trouble, especially with as bad as the Suns have been defensively. Lay the points!

3* Public Massacre of the Grizzlies +7
The public is all over the Blazers here, but Memphis has shown that it is not about to roll over, going 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 games. Memphis was just thumped by 20 points in Portland on March 28th and I expect the Grizzlies to take exception to that tonight. The Underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Bet Memphis at home!

5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK on Bobcats -4.5
The Cats are still alive in the playoff race and after 3 straight losses, I expect a very motivated performance at home tonight. Charlotte has had Philly's number, going 4-1 SU and ATS at home over the last 3 seasons against the 76ers and 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS at home in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. The Home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Atlantic and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. Bet the Bobcats at home tonight. Good Luck!

5* Wiseguy NCAA Championship Game ATS BLOOD BATH on Michigan State +8
The Spartans have met every challenge in this tournament, knocking out defending champion Kansas and two No. 1 seeds. With a strong fan base behind them, I like the Spartans to pull off one more dazzling upset. This matchup is offense vs. defense and I have to go with defense in this case after seeing how Tom Izzo's club shut down powerhouses Louisville and UConn. UNC has steamrolled all of its opponents in the dance but with the title on the line, this one is going to be a dog fight. Tom Izzo is 16-6 ATS when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament as the coach of Michigan State and also 20-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as Spartans head man. Lastly, Michigan State is 12-4 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Take the points tonight.

3* SUREFIRE on Jazz +3
Utah's lack of success on the road is well documented, but the Jazz will be ready to go tonight after losing 3 in a row, including a terrible loss as a double digit favorite at home against Minnesota last game. The Hornets struggle in this matchup as Chris Paul has a tougher time going against the bigger, stronger Deron Williams. In fact, Utah has taken 7 of the 9 meetings over the last 3 seasons. We'll call on an interesting system which tells us that Utah will bring the defense tonight. Utah is 9-0 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 105.0 to 87.0. Bet the Jazz.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference GOTM on Rockets -4
Expect the Rockets to bounce back strong at home tonight after enduring back-to-back road losses. The Blazers have won 4 in a row, but they meet their match tonight as none of their last 4 opponents are even close to as good as Houston is defensively. Houston is 30-8 at home this season, winning by an average score of 100.3 to 92.0 in those games. The Rockets have also won 4 of the last 5 at home in this series. Also, plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 115-66 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points!

4* Major Final Four BLOOD BATH on UNC -7
Nova hangs around for a while, but the Tar Heels will pull away in the second half to head into the title game with a double digit win. After getting denied by Kansas in the Final Four a season ago, nothing will stand in North Carolina's way this time around. Here's the key: UNC is 19-6 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons, obliterating these teams by an average score of 88.4 to 71.7. I'll lay the points.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Hawks +2.5
With Orlando coming off a huge win over Cleveland last night, it's going to be very difficult for the Magic to get up for this one. It will be no problem for the Hawks, who have lost two in a row and were drilled by the Magic the last time these teams squared off. The Hawks are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. The Magic are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Hawks!

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Line Mistake of the Year on UConn -4
Michigan State certainly shut down Louisville, but it held a big size advantage. The Spartans won't hold the same advantage against Hasheem Thabeet and company Saturday. Purdue was a better defensive team than Michigan State in the Big Ten this season and the Huskies were able to beat Purdue by 12 points in the Sweet 16. If any team was going to cramp UConn's style, it would have been Missouri and its uptempo game, but the Huskies were able to handle the Tigers with a 7-point win. UConn has shown that it can win playing any tempo and that is the true sign of a good team. UConn is 8-2 ATS when playing away from home versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season, 10-3 ATS when playing away from home versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season and 8-1 ATS in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season. The Huskies roll on to the title game and cover the number in the process.

3* SUREFIRE on New Orleans Hornets -3.5
Plain and simple, the Warriors do not have enough healthy horses to compete with Chris Paul and company tonight. Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette will both be out along with several other key contributors. New Orleans has rattled off 3 straight wins and I look for it to keep rolling here against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Plus, Golden State's thrilling win last time out against the Kings sets it up for a terrible letdown here as it is 0-10 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Major CBI Tournament Odds Maker Error on UTEP -8.5
The books have made a terrible mistake with this line as UTEP will roll the Beavers by double digits in this one. UTEP shot poorly from both three-point range and the free throw line in Game 2 and still won by 7 points. I don't expect this one to be even close. The Beavers are a terrible 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 while the Miners are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Oregon State has struggled on the road all season and those struggles will continue tonight. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Jazz -13
Off back-to-back double digit losses to division rivals Portland and Utah, expect the Jazz to take their frustrations out on lowly Minnesota tonight. I would like the Jazz going against the Wolves at this number even if Minnesota was at full strength, but the Wolves will be without Al Jefferson, Corey Brewer, and likely Randy Foye and Craig Smith as well. Utah is 20-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. This one is going to be ugly. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference GOTM on Boston Celtics -4.5
Boston has its eye fixed on securing the No. 2 seed in the East as it has won 7 of its last 8 games. Boston is an unbelievable 31-6 at home this season and I like the Celtics laying a relatively small number against a Hawks team that is just 14-23 on the road. Doubt is starting to set in by now for the Hawks, which have played the Celtics tough 3 times this season but have came away empty handed in each time. Boston always takes this matchup very seriously after the Hawks took it to 7 games in the first round of the playoffs a season ago. Boston has widened its margin of victory each time it has played the Hawks this season, winning by 6 points in Atlanta on March 27th. I like Boston by double digits tonight an Atlanta team which has now lost 4 straight on the road. Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing these games badly by an average score of 88.5 to 106.4. Pound the Celtics!

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout of the Month on 76ers -7.5
Milwaukee is just 3-11 SU and ATS in its last 14 games and there's no way the Bucks will be able to get up for this one after en emotionally draining performance against the Lakers last night. Philly is playing out the regular season to lock up home court in the first round of the playoffs so it has every reason to take care of business. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Lay the points and this one gets ugly!

4* Major NIT Odds Maker Error on Penn State +4
Defense wins championships and this old adage will ring true tonight as the Nittany Lions take home the NIT title behind their gritty defense. Penn State allows nearly 8 less points per game than the Bears. It is ridiculous for the Bears to even be laying points in this game and it would be even more ridiculous for us to lay the points on them as they have not been a good favorite this season. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points. Bet Penn State.

4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Kings +8.5
The Warriors are laying too many points when you consider the injury problems they have been plagued with. The Kings beat Phoenix and then played New Orleans to a 1-point game and will have no problem scoring against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA tonight. Plays against home teams in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 36-18 ATS since 1996. Take the points.

4* Major CBI Point Spread Blowout on UTEP -9
I like the Miners to blow the Beavers away in this do-or-die game 2 of the CBI Championship Series. UTEP has been great on its home floor all season at 12-4 while OSU is just 4-10 when playing away from home and hasn't played a true road game since March 7th. Now that the Beavers will no longer have their home court behind them, it's going to be a whole new ball game. The Beavers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Miners are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take UTEP.

5* Wiseguy NBA Odds Maker Error on Grizzlies -2.5
The Wizards are really banged up and will be without a lot of fire power tonight. That gives Memphis a big edge at home against a Wizards team which has lost 9 of its last 10 on the road. Washington has just 5 wins on the road all season. The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis and the Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Also, the Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest and 5-14-2 ATS in their last 21 road games. Grizzlies should be laying a few more points here so we'll take advantage of this soft line. Pound the Grizz!

3* SUREFIRE on Bobcats +9
The Bobcats are going after the final playoff spot in the East hard and I like their chances tonight against a Boston team playing without KG and Leon Powe. The Bobcats just beat the Lakers last night and that win is going to give them an added boost of confidence. Charlotte has played its best basketball against the best teams and already has a win over the Celtics this season when Boston was at full strength. Charlotte is getting too many. Take the points.

3* SUREFIRE on 76ers -1.5
Expect a letdown from the Hawks tonight after a big win over the Lakers as they go out on the road against a hungry 76ers team off back-to-back defeats. The 76ers have already dropped one double digit defeat on the Hawks this season so this system becomes significant as play against underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 123-76 ATS since 1996. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK on Lakers -5.5
After losing by 10 points to the Hawks and only scoring 76 points, expect LA to bury the Bobcats tonight as it fights with Cleveland for home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Charlotte beat LA by 7 in Tinsel Town earlier this season so the Lakers will be out for additional revenge tonight. The Lakers are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season, winning these games by 11 points on average. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NIT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Baylor/SDSU UNDER 136
SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, allowing just 59.2 ppg. Because of its "D", SDSU is 11-3 UNDER in its last 14 games, holding each of its last 8 opponents to 66 or fewer points and 6 of its last 8 to 59 or fewer. Baylor is 11-3 UNDER its last 14 as well. Despite this, this public is on the over, right where the books want it so there's no question we are on the right side here. SDSU is 20-5 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons, with the score totaling 124.5 points in these spots. SDSU is also 9-2 UNDER in non-conference games this season, with the score totaling 124 points in these contests. Pound the Under!

5* Wiseguy 31-0 ATS NBA Double Digit Blood Bath on Nets -4.5
There's no question about it, the Bucks have packed it in for the 2008-09 season, dropping 10 of their last 12 SU and 11 of their last 12 ATS. To add insult to injury, Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 meetings in New Jersey and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. Milwaukee has been miserable away from home this season at just 11-27. The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. I like the Nets to bounce back strong after a very disappointing loss to Minnesota. Lay the points!

5* NBA "TOTAL" Blowout of the Month on Spurs/Hornets OVER 177.5
Both of these teams are solid defensively so that drives this number down. Plus, the Hornets have gone under in 8 straight games so that drives the number down even more. New Orleans has lost back-to-back games and it knows it will need to speed up the tempo to beat the Spurs tonight. With the Spurs back at full strength with Ginobli back in the lineup, I expect to see a better San Antonio offensive as well. The Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in Spurs last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Also, plays over on teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games are 94-38 (71.2%) since 1996. Bet the Over!

4* Major Elite Eight BLOOD BATH on UNC -7
The Tar Heels struggled without Lawson in the lineup, beating VA Tech by just 3 points and then losing to FSU in the ACC tournament. Since his return, the Heels have put together a pair of dominant wins over LSU and Gonzaga. Truthfully, Gonzaga matched up better on paper than the Sooners as far as being able to run with the Heels so this one has the potential to get ugly. UNC was taken out in the Final Four a season ago and this team will not be denied getting back there for a chance at a national title. Experience will prove huge for the Heels today. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Lay the number!

3* Late Night NBA Bailout on Grizzlies +13
Off a huge blowout win over the Suns and with Utah up next in a big division game, expect the Blazers to get caught overlooking the Grizzlies tonight. Memphis did just play last night, but it got a big win over the Kings and any win is a huge confidence booster for this team. This season, Memphis has played Portland to 4 and 11 point games so I have no doubt the Grizzlies can keep this one within the number as well. Memphis is 17-5 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, losing by just 1.0 points in these games. Take the points!

4* Major NBA Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Bobcats -6.5
NY is just 10-24 on the road all season and stands no chance tonight playing back-to-back in a letdown spot after an upset win over the Hornets. Charlotte played last night as well, beating Philly on the road, but expect no letdown from the Bobcats as they continue to fight for the final playoff spot. The Bobcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic. We'll lay the points.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 Game of the Year on Pitt -2
Pitt is overdue to put a complete game together in this tournament and I have a strong feeling Villanova will bring the best out of the Panthers. Pitt went down to Nova during the regular season in a game where DeJuan Blair was not very effective. Expect Blair to have a huge game and for the Panthers to roll in this revenge spot. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, but here's the clincher. Pitt is 8-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) this season, winning in these spots by 12ppg. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 REVENGER on Michigan State -1
Outside of Collins and Aldrich, the Jayhawks are young and inexperienced. They rely heavily on Collins to score points and there is no way that Tom Izzo is going to let one guy beat them. Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas will put a lot or pressure on Collins both on offense and on defense. That matchup will likely be a wash, but the Spartans have the better supporting cast and therefore have the edge. Michigan State crushed Kansas by 13 points in January in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. That game was at Michigan State but the Spartans have arguable played better away from home this season with a 16-3 mark outside East Lansing. That is not the case for Kansas, which is just 9-7 when playing away from home this season. Kansas is the reigning national champ and that puts a target on its back that I don't believe this team is capable of defending against a high caliber opponent like Michigan State. Plays against neutral court teams as an underdog in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a combined score of 110 points or less are 33-9 ATS since 1997. Michigan State is a perfect 6-0 ATS against Big 12 conference opponents over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 77.2 to 70.0. Take the Spartans

3* SUREFIRE on Syracuse +1
If it weren't for injuries, the Orange would have been right in the mix for a Big East title this season. They are now healthy and have played down the stretch like we expected them to play all year, winning 9 of their last 10 games. I really like Cuse in this one because I see its patented 2-3 zone creating major problems for the Sooners. It will force OU to beat the Orange from the perimeter and I don't see that happening as the Sooners have rode on the back of Blake Griffin all season. One of the only ways to beat the Orange is to force them to turn the ball over, but OU is not good in that department. Cuse is 8-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season, winning these matchups by an average score of 84.2 to 68.4. Also, you have to like that Cuse is is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. I'm taking Boeheim's boys.

4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +5.5
The Bobcats have had a day to regroup after losing to lowly Washington and they'll be ready to go tonight. Every game from here on out is a big one with the Cats trying to play their way into the postseason. The Bobcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The 76ers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. We'll take the points.

4* Major Big Dance Bailout Blowout on Memphis -4.5
The old saying "teams who press don't like to be pressed" will ring true here as Memphis has the better pressing defense and will make life miserable for Mizzou's young guards. You can say that Mizzou's turnover numbers look pretty good, but this is what Memphis' defense does to those teams. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 75.7 to 60.2. Memphis in a rout!

4* Major NCAA Tournament TOTY on Purdue/UConn UNDER 134.5
UConn has had a cake walk in the first two rounds and its high point production has really raised this number up. Purdue is one of the elite defensive teams in the nation, allowing only 59.4 ppg. Both teams prefer to play in the half court on offense as well. The pace of this game and a pair of exceptional defense teams will see the under prevail here. Plays Under - Neutral court teams against the total (CONNECTICUT) - good defensive team - allowing <=64 points/game on the season, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 82-43 since 1997 and Plays Under - Neutral court teams against the total (CONNECTICUT) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 123-69 since 1997. Pound the Under!

5* Wiseguy 2009 NCAA Tournament GOTY on Purdue +7
The public has fallen into the UConn trap like you wouldn't believe here after watching the Huskies dominate in the first 2 rounds. We won't get caught in the same trap. If Purdue had been healthy all season, you likely would have seen this team win the Big Ten. The biggest reason why Purdue covers is because it is exceptional on defense, allowing only 59.4 ppg. History tells us to fade UConn after 2 big wins as it is just 3-13 ATS in road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997, winning by just 3ppg on average in these spots. Purdue won't go away in this one and has an excellent opportunity to pull off the shocking upset. NCAA Tourney GOTY - Good Luck!

4* Major NBA Deadly Dog of the Week on Nuggets +4.5
The Hornets are being overvalued tonight. I'll take the points with the better team here. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 while the Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. New Orleans is not playing as well as the wins and losses indicate as they have had a very soft schedule of late. Denver wins this one outright!

3* NBA Playoffs Preview on Celtics +3.5
The Celtics have endured some injury problems but they are getting healthier. I believe Boston is still the better team in this matchup and they will be out for revenge after losing by 7 at home to the Magic earlier this month. Boston is 12-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Take Boston.

5* Wiseguy NIT Double Digit Blood Bath on Notre Dame -2.5
I'll take the better team at home laying a small number in this one. Notre Dame is 14-3 at home this season with all 3 of those losses coming to teams who made the big dance. Kentucky obviously did not make the field of 64 and you will see first hand how good the Big East is compared to the SEC in this matchup. The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. After getting a gut check with a tight one against New Mexico, the Irish will be ready to go tonight. They also have a big edge in terms of game prep time. All signs point to a win and cover for Notre Dame and I don't think it will be close!

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Jazz -5.5
The Jazz were an 8.5-point favorite when they played the Rockets at home 20 days ago. The Jazz won that game by 7 points. With the number now set 3 points lower, I'll jump all over the Jazz here against a Rockets team coming off a highly emotional win against rival San Antonio. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 106.4 to 95.5 in these spots. We'll lay the points with the Jazz at home.

3* SUREFIRE on San Antonio Spurs -10.5
I expect the Spurs to take out their frustration over back-to-back losses out of the Warriors tonight. Golden State is a terrible 6-29 on the road this season, allowing 111.9 ppg in these contests. The Spurs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home against the Warriors the last 3 seasons, which includes a 123-88 win at home earlier this season. The Warriors are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Favorite is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Home team is 18-6-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings. The Warriors are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. Bet San Antonio in this bounce back spot.

5* Wiseguy NIT MONSTER BEST BET on Baylor +3.5
Baylor hugely underachieved this season but they are taking full advantage of the opportunity to play postseason basketball, even if it isn't in the Big Dance. After getting to the Big 12 Title Game, the Bears have taken down Georgetown and Virginia Tech - two teams better than Auburn. We'll gladly take them catching points here. Baylor is 13-4 ATS in road tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average of 3.2 ppg. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. I strongly believe that Baylor is the better team and will prevail tonight.

5* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Mary's -4.5
The Gaels really feel like they were snubbed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and they went out and proved it in round one by thumping Washington State. The Gaels are a better team than Davidson and Curry may not even be the best player on the floor as Patty Mills is getting healthier and healthier for the Gaels. He will be a handful for the Wildcats tonight and the Gaels also have a huge advantage on the interior. St. Mary's is 14-1 at home this season and I like them to keep getting it done on their home floor tonight. The Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Lay the number.

4* Major CBI Tourney Total of the Year on Vermont/Oregon St UNDER 127.5
Odds makers have made a huge mistake with this line as Oregon State is an unders machine with its Princeton style offense. Oregon State held a high powered Houston offense to just 45 points in round 1. Vermont is 7-0 UNDER in March games since 1997. The Under is 7-0 in Beavers last 7 home games and 6-0 in home games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Bet the Under.

4* Major Monday Night NBA BEST BET on Hawks -11.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers ended Atlanta's 7 game winning streak and now the Hawks will be out for blood against a Timberwolves team which just played yesterday. Because of the injuries to key players, the Wolves have had to live and die by the 3 and that will not treat them well tonight as Atlanta is 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Hawks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Public Massacre on Marquette +4.5
Marquette escaped round 1 against an inferior Utah State team and will have a heightened sense of focus and determination because of it. This veteran Marquette squad is getting no respect against a Missouri team which is relatively new to winning. You hear a lot of talk about Missouri's press, but I really wasn't that impressed with it. I like the strong Marquette backcourt to eat the Tigers alive. The Tigers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. The Golden Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in neutral court games where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons. Marquette surprises the public here!

4* Major Double Digit Blood Bath on Pitt -8
We are 2-for-2 on these double digit blood bath plays in the dance and I like our chances of getting to 3-0 here. Here's the key: Okie State finds itself in a letdown spot following a highly emotional win while the Panthers will be out for blood following a poor first round performance. Pitt is 14-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, winning by an average score of 75.8 to 63.3. Lay the number.

3* SUREFIRE on Xavier -3.5
This Xavier team made a deep run last season and that experience gets it into the Sweet 16 against the young Badgers. Wisconsin is just 2-10 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. Wisconsin had to make a big comeback by shooting lights out to beat FSU and I don't see them being able to go the distance with a more balanced Xavier squad.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Double Digit Blood Bath on Magic -12
The Knicks have been slaughtered each of their last 2 games and they have a fresh Magic team waiting for them tonight. The Magic have all the motivation in the world to put the hurt on NY here as they chase Boston for the second best mark in the East, which would give them home court if they were to meet in the playoffs. Orlando is 14-3 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. We'll lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tourney REVENGE GOTY on Purdue +1.5
We are 2-for-2 on these plays in the NCAA Tournament thus far and I like our chances of staying perfect with this beauty. I don't care if Washington is playing in its own backyard. Purdue is the better team in this matchup on any floor. It is finally healthy and it is peaking at the right time. A little bit of a letdown was inevitable in round one after the high that comes from winning the Big Ten Tourney. We saw it from Mississippi State in its game against Washington. Purdue first round scare serves as a wake up call and you better believe the Boilers will be ready to show the Pac-10 champs what the Big Ten is all about. Washington is a young team, especially at the crucial guard spots, and this will be its downfall against a Purdue club that will not accept going home in the second round for a second straight year. Defense wins big games and Purdue has the hands down better defense, allowing just 59.0 ppg to Washington's 69.3. Lastly, Purdue is 15-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average of 8.0 ppg. Take Purdue!

4* Major NCAA Tourney "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Maryland/Memphis UNDER 132
Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the country and after allowing Northridge to put 70 points on them in round one, expect the Tigers to put the clamps down today. Maryland is 15-6 UNDER in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 17-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season and 8-1 UNDER in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 3 seasons. Bet the under here as we see a defensive battle to get into the Sweet 16.

5* Wiseguy First Rd GOTY on FSU -2.5
Wisconsin is getting way too much respect with this line. The Badgers have really struggled when playing away from home. They have lost 6 of their last 8 road games and they get an FSU team playing very confident basketball behind one of the best player in the ACC in Toney Douglas. FSU is the better team playing the better basketball and we will jump all over the Noles in this spot. Here's the key: Wisconsin is just 1-9 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season. The Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Seminoles are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. All Noles here.