Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major Wednesday *NIT BAILOUT* Northwestern +4
Bottom Line: Jump on Northwestern tonight with the news of Washington State's top rebounder and third-leading scorer, DeAngelo Casto, being suspended for marijuana possession. Northwestern has some good size in the frontcourt and will take advantage of the Cougars missing one of their better starters. Northwestern has played extremely well to end the season including playing close in the Big Ten Tournament against Ohio State and, most recently, upsetting Boston College to advance in the NIT. The Wildcats are the play tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on Nuggets -5
Bottom Line: San Antonio enters this match up with the best record in the NBA, however, without one of their key players with Tim Duncan nursing a bad ankle. The Nuggets have looked great at home since the Carmelo Anthony trade. They've won and covered the spread in 6-straight home games and are facing a San Antonio team who is playing in their fourth game in six days. San Antonio also comes in with just a 1-4 ATS record on the road against teams with a .600 home winning percentage or better. The Nuggets fit that description, lay the points.

4* Major Wednesday *BLOOD BATH* on New York Knicks +1
Bottom Line: This is an important spot for the Knicks, who are still fighting for a better seed in the NBA playoffs. Here we have a case of a hot team (Orlando) who hits the road to face a cold home team (New York). The rub is that the Magic's record as the visiting teams is nearly identical to the Knicks' home record. Orlando has looked good of late winning three straight (though failing to cover in all three), but those games were against less talented teams. New York has dropped three straight, but two of those games were on the road and their most recent loss came to one of the top teams in the East in the Boston Celtics. Look for the Knicks to get back on track Wednesday night.

4* Major NIT *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Colorado -10
Bottom Line: Colorado has come ready to play at home in each of its first 2 NIT games, posting wins of 14 and 17 points, and I expect no different tonight. Instead of crying about their NCAA Tourney snub, the Buffs are using it as motivation. They are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while Kent State is a lousy 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Bet the Buffs.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT PRIMETIME PUNISHER on Hawks +4.5
Bottom Line: This is a game the Hawks really want after the 18-point loss they were handed in Chicago earlier this month, and they won't be lacking any confidence against a team they have defeated 6 straight times at home by an average of 14.0 ppg. The Hawks match up very well with the Bulls with their physical, athletic lineup, which is the main reason Chicago 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. Take the points.

4* Major NIT *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN2) on Washington State -6.5
Bottom Line: Here we have a good home team and a terrible road club, and I won't hesitate to take the home squad. Oklahoma State is a terrible 15-37-2 ATS in its last 54 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games as a home. The Cowboys have struggled away from home all season, and I fully expect those struggles to continue tonight.

5* Wiseguy Monday NBA Blowout on Bulls -15.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls blew a 35-point lead and lost to the Kings at the United Center last season. That defeat, and the most recent, assures us Chicago will be in major revenge mode this evening. Chicago is a deadly 7-0 ATS in home games after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite this season. The Bulls are winning by an average of 17.3 points in this situation. Bet the Bulls.

4* Major NCAA Tournament Play of the Day on Purdue -9
Bottom Line: Purdue is 18-10 ATS in all lined games this season, including 15-7 ATS when listed as a favorite. The Boilermakers have won the games in which they have been favored by an average of 10.6 points. The Rams have shot out of their minds from 3-point range to knock off USC and Georgetown. Expect Purdue to do a great job of chasing VCU shooters off the stripe to earn the win and get us the cover.

5* Wiseguy Sunday NBA Blowout on Hawks -7
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Hawks to show up today after getting their butts kicked in their last 2. The Pistons have lost 6 in a row on the road by an average of 11.0 points. They have also lost their last 5 in Atlanta, averaging just 86.0 points in those defeats. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Expect them to take care of business in this highly motivated spot.

4* Major NCAA Tournament Play of the Day on Wisconsin -3
Bottom Line: Wisconsin is the better defensive team, the more disciplined team and the better free throw shooting squad. These 3 key elements will lead to a nice win and cover for the Badgers. The Wildcats are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 game against the Big 12. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Grizzlies -9
Bottom Line: Indiana is in for a major letdown here following last night's big OT victory over the Bulls. Memphis, meanwhile, will be out for blood following a blowout loss to the Knicks in its last game. The a lousy 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days of rest. The 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a defeat of more than 10 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the Pacers. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Bobcats +9.5
Bottom Line: A double-digit defeat to Houston last game and a double-digit loss to OKC earlier this season assure us the Bobcats will be hungry when they take the floor tonight. The numbers are in our favor as well. Charlotte is 24-9 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 3 seasons and 20-8 ATS after being held to 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Also, OKC is 3-12 ATS after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games over the last 2 seasons. Odds makers are spotting the Bobcats too many tonight and we'll look to take advantage. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Texas -10
Bottom Line: Plays against underdogs seeded 13-16 in the Big Dance that enter with 8 wins or more in their last 10 games are an impressive 38-13 ATS the past 5 seasons. Teams fitting this system are falling by 16.7 points on average. Plus, Oakland has lost to the likes of W. Virginia, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan by an average of 19.4 points. I fully expect the Longhorns to take care of business in a big way here.

5* Wiseguy Round 1 Monster Line Mistake on Bucknell +10
Bottom Line: Considering the emotional high UConn is riding following its Big East tournament title, and the physical toll winning 5 games in 5 days has taken on this team, odds makers are giving the Huskies too much respect with this line. UConn is one of those teams that is constantly overvalued and that is certainly the case here with books knowing the public money will be pouring in on Kemba Walker and company. I'm not hesitating to go against the grain as UConn is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 first round tournament games. Bet Bucknell.

4* Major Round 1 *Underdog Shocker* on Wofford +8.5
Bottom Line: BYU has struggled to find consistency without Davies, which opens the door for Wofford to pull off the upset. The Terriers will be lacking no confidence in this one after playing the Wisconsin Badgers to a 4-point game in the first round of the dance last year. The Terriers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games while the Cougars 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. It also can't be ignored that Wofford is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Terriers.

4* Major Early CA$H COW on Old Dominion -2
Bottom Line: Old Dominion is every bit as good as it was last year when it upset Notre Dame in the first round. But Butler isn't near the team that made a historic run to the national title game. The Bulldogs will really miss the athletic ability of Gordon Hayward in this one against a very athletic ODU squad. The Monarchs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and I expect them to cash another ticket bright and early Thursday.

4* Major CBI Tournament Game of the Night on Montana pk
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies enjoy one of the best home court advantages in the country. They are 13-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 16.2 points. Proving they didn't just prey on weaker competition, Montana owns wins over Oregon State and UCLA. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games while the struggling Dukes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Duquesne won't make it out of the bear cave alive tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Thunder/Heat UNDER 202.5
Bottom Line: This is without a doubt the strongest totals system I've come across this year. Plays Under on any team (MIAMI) after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, against an opponent that led in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, are 34-7 since 1996, 17-2 the last 5 seasons and 1-0 this season. We have only seen an average of 185.0 total points scored in this system. Pound the Under.

4* Major NIT Game of the Night (ESPN2) on Wichita State -4.5
Bottom Line: Nebraska has been a terrible road investment for as long as I can remember. We've made some nice money fading them this season on the road, where they are just 1-7. The Huskers are just 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 road games. I don't believe they'll be able to shake their road woes against one of the best teams in the Valley tonight. Lay the points.

4* Major NCAA Tourney Game of the Night (truTV) on UAB +5
Bottom Line: Look for UAB to take Clemson right down to the wire in this play-in game. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as a favorite. The Blazers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games as an underdog. Lastly, UAB is 6-0 ATS in away games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. Bet the Blazers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Week on Bucks +5.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks have been a pure fade when valued as a home favorite this season. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 8-19 ATS in all games as a home favorite this season. The Hawks have also struggled in revenge spots like this. In fact, they are just 1-8 ATS in home games when out to avenge a loss to a foe this season. Milwaukee has already taken 2 of 3 from Atlanta this season and it will be lacking no motivation after the way it was pounded by Boston Sunday. Take the points.

4* Major NIT Game of the Night (ESPN2) on Charleston -5.5
Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Flyers, going on the road to open the NIT just 2 days after their NCAA tourney dreams were shattered. This isn't just any road game either. It's in Charleston where the Cougars are 12-1 this season. And they haven't just won at home; they have dominated with an average winning margin of 16.0 points. Lay the points with the Cougars in this one.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Lakers -6
Bottom Line: While winning 9 of their last 10, the Lakers have paid back the Spurs and the Mavs for previous losses this season. I expect them to have their revenge against Orlando tonight. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - avenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 62-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system are winning by an average of 8.9 points. In addition, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - avenging a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 32-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this profile are winning by an average of 11.7 points. Take the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy Sunday NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Celtics -8.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics are one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA at 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. They have lost back-to-back games just 4 prior times this season, and they have responded to win the next game each time by an average of 16.0 points. Plus, Boston will benefit from the presence of Delonte West and Glen Davis. Both are expected back in the lineup today. Bet Boston.

4* Major Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on Duke -3.5
Bottom Line: While UNC is lucky to be in the championship game after a pair of come-from-behind wins against Miami and Clemson, Duke has taken care of Maryland and Virginia Tech by double digits. The Dukies, which have won back-to-back ACC titles (and 9 of the last 12), want this one really bad after blowing the regular season title with a loss to the Heels in the last game of the regular season. Expect UNC's luck to run out this afternoon as this hungry Duke squad takes it to 'em. Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) after 15+ games, and after a win by 10 points or more, are 29-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have won by an average of 9.9 points. Take Duke.

4* Major Big East Championship (ESPN) on Louisville -2
Bottom Line: The value clearly lies with the much fresher Louisville team here. The Cards were pushed to OT last night, but they will still have a lot more legs than a UConn club playing its 5th game in 5 days. Look for Louisville to slap on its patented press early to really wear down the Huskies in this one. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big East. Also, the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this head-to-head series. A great run by UConn comes to an end here.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Bucks -2
Bottom Line: I really like the Bucks in this spot. They have had 2 full days to gear up for this one and they are playing with same season double revenge. The 76ers are primed for a letdown following a huge win over Boston last night. Plus, fatigue will be an issue for them as this is their 2nd game in as many nights and their 4th in 5 days. Philly is just 12-20 on the road this season, and I believe it runs into a buzz saw tonight. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy Pac-10 Tournament Game of the Year on Washington -2.5
Bottom Line: Unranked Washington is favored over a ranked Arizona squad that won the Pac-10? Odds makers know something, and I couldn't agree more. Washington destroyed the Wildcats by 17 at home and then played them to a 1-point game on the road. The Huskies will prove that they are the best team in the Pac-10 with a win and cover in this neutral court battle. Plays on -neutral court teams (WASHINGTON) that are explosive offensively (averaging 76 or more ppg) against a good offensive team averaging 74-76 ppg 15-plus games into the season and after a win by 10 or more points, are an awesome 29-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this system are winning by an average score of 78.8 to 68.7. Take Washington.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Bobcats +4.5
Bottom Line: Portland is 1-8 ATS when it has won 4 of its last 5 games this season. It is losing by an average score of 94.7 to 89.4 in this spot. Charlotte is 22-8 ATS after losing 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 94.3 to 90.2 in this spot. Off a big win over Miami, the Blazers will get caught overlooking a team they crushed last week. Take the points.

4* Major Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Syracuse -3.5
Bottom Line: Jim Boeheim's zone completely shut down UConn in an 8-point win during the season. Kemba Walker especially struggled, scoring 8 points on 3-for-14 shooting. Expect the Syracuse zone to be the difference again. Plus, it also doesn't bode well for UConn that this is its 4th game in 4 days.

5* Wiseguy Conference Tournament Blowout Game of the Year on Kansas -12
Bottom Line: After getting a major scare yesterday, Kansas will be ready to run a fatigued Colorado team off the court. Consider that Kansas is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games away from home following a close win by 3 points or less. The Jayhawks are winning these games by an average of 14.3 points. Kansas crushed Colorado by 26 last month, and I fully expect another decisive victory by the Jayhawks here.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Mavericks -5.5
Bottom Line: Letdown city for the Knicks after last night's buzzer-beater win over Memphis. Dallas, meanwhile, is in extreme bounce back mode after completely peeing away yesterday's contest with New Orleans. Dallas have won 16 of the last 18 games in this matchup. It is also worth noting that 14 of the Mavs' last 17 wins in this series have come by at least 6 points. With Billups ruled out, the Mavs have the huge edge at the guard spots with Rodrique Beaubois, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Jose Barea. Plus, Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood should be able to hold their own down low with Stoudemire. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference. Lay the points.

4* Major Thursday Night Conference Tourney Blowout on Texas -13.5
Bottom Line: We faded South Florida successfully yesterday as it came in riding high off a win over Villanova. Now, we'll fade Oklahoma following its shocking blowout win over Baylor. Texas has handled the Sooners by 20 and 16 points this season, and I don't expect it to show OU any mercy here. Texas is on a mission after letting the Big 12 regular season title get away. The Longhorns are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Also, the Sooners are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Texas.

4* Major Big East Tourney Public Burial on Cincy +2
Bottom Line: I really like the way Cincinnati is playing. We rode the Bearcats to our Big East Game of the Year yesterday, and I'm sticking with them here. Cincy is an impressive 9-4 when playing away from home this season. Also, the Bearcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games in the underdog role. Notre Dame relies heavily on the 3-point shot, but it is only shooting the 3 at a 32.5% clip away from home this season. With as well as Cincy has been defending - holding its last 5 foes to average of 56.2 points - look for the Bearcats to pull off the upset this evening.

4* Major NBA Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Magic -9
Bottom Line: The Magic get Dwight Howard back from suspension tonight, and they will waste no time jumping all over a Sacramento team that upset in their first game out of the All-Star break. Orlando is 20-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, defeating these foes by an average of 15.7 points. Also, the Magic 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Orlando.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Mavs/Hornets UNDER 189
Bottom Line: The Hornets only managed 77 points in their last game without Chris Paul to facilitate the offense. He won't be back in the lineup tonight, and that means the offense should continue to struggle. Plus, plays Under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less, are 51-24 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 180.1 total points scored in this situation. Lastly, the Under is 12-4 in the Hornets' last 16 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy Big East Game of the Year on Cincinnati -10
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for S. Florida following its huge comeback win over Villanova last night. Cincy is playing its best ball of the season heading into the tourney. It has won 5 of its last 6 games with those 5 wins coming by an average of 12.4 points. In addition, the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and it should have no problem putting the clamps on a tired USF squad that used a ton of energy in last night's comeback. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA MONSTER LINE MISTAKE on Hawks +5.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are getting way too much respect from odds makers in this situation. I know they have won 7 straight out of the break, but this is a major sandwich game. LA is coming off its biggest win of the season (over San Antonio) and it will be much more concerned with 3 upcoming revenge games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando than it will a Hawks team it defeated by 24 2 weeks ago. While Atlanta won't get LA's full attention, you better believe LA will get all of Atlanta's focus. The Hawks are off consecutive losses, including an ugly loss to the Knicks. Combine that with their ugly loss at LA, and I expect this to be one of the most motivated spots for the Hawks all season. Atlanta has won 3 in a row at home against the Lakers and the last 2 wins have come by 10 and 17 points. We'll take the points.

4* Major Conference Tourney Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Akron -12
Bottom Line: After dropping their final two games of the regular season, the Zips will be out for blood against an Eastern Michigan team they have dominated at home. Akron has won 8 of its last 10 at home in this matchup and the last 3 home wins have come by an average of 18.0 points. In fact, the home team is a dominant 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Akron has won its last 7 home game while Eastern Michigan has dropped its last 7 on the road. Plus, the Zips will want this game even more because they lost at E. Mich during the regular season. This one has all the makings of a blowout. Lay the points.

4* Major WCC Championship *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on St. Mary's +1.5
Bottom Line: St. Mary's destroyed Gonzaga by 19 points in last year's WCC championship game, and I expect the Gaels to come through again tonight. St. Mary's is an impressive 10-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons, 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Gaels.

5* Wiseguy NBA Letdown Game of the Month on Thunder +3
Bottom Line: After coming back from 18 down to end Dallas' 8-game win streak on Zach Randolph's buzzer-beater, the Grizzlies are primed for a major letdown today. In addition, OKC wants this game badly after falling at home to Memphis last month. Randolph has been effective against the Thunder this season, but I expect a lackluster performance from him here after logging 42-plus minutes Sunday. OKC is 8-1 ATS in road games this season when looking to avenge a loss in which it allowed its opponent to score 100 or more points. The Thunder are winning these games by an average score of 100.2 to 99.3. Expect the Thunder to earn the outright win.

4* Major (ABC) on Lakers +3
Bottom Line: The Lakers have been out to remind everyone following that they are the two-time defending champs. The Lakers have won 6 straight, and they will be extremely motivated here having lost the season's first 2 meetings with San Antonio. The Lakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs, meanwhile, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Plus, Friday's blowout win over the Heat won't do the Spurs any favors as they'll come into this one riding a little too high. Expect the Lakers to knock them down a notch with a win Sunday.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* (ABC) on Heat -5
Bottom Line: I doubt we will find a team as talented as the Heat in a more motivated spot the rest of the season. Miami has lost the season's first 2 meetings with the Bulls and it enters this contest having lost its last 3 games. Getting absolutely embarrassed by the Spurs on national TV Friday night assures us that the Heat will be extremely focused for this national TV affair. Plays on any team (MIAMI) - off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 46-22 ATS (67.6%) the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Clippers -1.5
Bottom Line: Expect Denver to finally endure a letdown against a Clippers team that is back to full strength. The Clippers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Denver has is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last 7 and LA is favored? Odds makers thing the Nuggets are going down, and I completely agree.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Year on Duke +1
Bottom Line: Really like Duke's senior leadership of Smith and Singler to be the difference in this one. Going to the numbers, the underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. UNC is in this position by the skin of its teeth while Duke has been rather dominant. Lookout for the Heels next year, but this year the Dukies capture another ACC title.

4* Major Big East *BLOOD BATH* on UConn -3
Bottom Line: The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. UConn has won its last 7 at home in this series, and I expect this trend to continue as Kemba Walker leads the Huskies to a win and cover on senior day.

4* Major NCAAB Friday Night Blowout on Indiana State -4
Bottom Line: The Sycamores are playing their best ball of the season heading into the MVC tourney. They have won 5 of 6 down the stretch, and they will be benefited by the return of guard Jake Kelly. Because Evansville defeated the Sycamores twice this season, Indiana State will be even hungrier and more focused in this one. The Sycamores are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Lay the points with ISU.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference *Cash Cow* on Warriors +9.5
Bottom Line: Boston is getting too much respect against a Warriors team that will be lacking no motivation following the defeat the Celtics handed them out of the All-Star break. Plus, Boston will be playing with a short bench with Glen Davis and Delonte West not expected to go. Boston is a lousy 31-44 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, including just 14-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points during this span. Going back three seasons, Boston is a dismal 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Warriors.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Game of the Month on Bulls +2
Bottom Line: This is a big letdown spot for the Magic, which used a ton of energy in erasing a 24-point deficit to defeat the Heat last night. Meanwhile, this is a big bounce back spot for a Bulls team that would like to wash the sour taste of Wednesday's loss to the Hawks out of its mouth. Chicago blew a 19-point lead in that contest, which will have it even more focused this evening. Chicago has become an elite defensive team under coach Thibodeau. In fact, it is an impressive 19-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game under Thibodeau, defeating these foes by an average of 7.0 points. Chicago's defense will be the difference in this one. Bet the Bulls.

4* Major NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN2) on Washington -8
Bottom Line: Huge letdown spot for UCLA, which just spanked Arizona in its last game. Washington, meanwhile, will be in bounce back mode following an upset loss to Washington State. The Bruins do not match up well with this explosive Huskies squad, as evidence by the 11-point defeat they took at home earlier this season. The Bruins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Bruins are also 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Washington. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Monster Line Mistake (TNT) on Magic +5
Bottom Line: The Magic have had this one circled ever since they fell at home to the Heat a month ago. They enter tonight's contest in better current form, and I fully expect them to have their revenge. Dwight Howard has taken his game to another level and that spells bad news for a Miami team that is lacking a physical post presence. The Heat are a poor 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Considering the Magic have an excellent shot to win this one outright, we'll take the points.

4* Major NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN2) on Seton Hall +2.5
Bottom Line: The books are looking to trap the public big time here. Joe public has fallen in love with the Johnnies and the books are well aware. Odds makers have come out with a line the public can't refuse, but we aren't about to take the bait. This is a big rivalry game and Seton Hall will be lacking no confidence against a team in defeated by 9 last season. It's been 13 years since St. John's won a road game against Seton Hall. The Johnnies have excelled in the underdog role, but now they are wearing the target. They'll get Hall's best shot tonight, and I don't think they'll be able to survive it. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound the Pirates.

4* Major NBA Late Night Bailout on Blazers -3
Bottom Line: The Blazers will be very hungry tonight after a poor performance against Houston Tuesday. They will be further motivated by a loss to Sacramento in January. The Blazers have won 4 in a row on the road, and they have also won their last 4 in Sacramento. The Trail Blazers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Kings are 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. Also, the Trail Blazers are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games when playing on 0 days rest. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Suns/Celtics OVER 199
Bottom Line: Normally the Celtics would look to slow the game down on Phoenix, but Boston is a smaller team now following the trade of Perkins. Plus, Phoenix has played back-to-back overtime games and this will be its 4th road game in 6 days. Expect the C's to run with Phoenix tonight, as they believe they will have more stamina in this one. The result of an uptempo affair should be an easy Overs winner. The Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these teams in Boston. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Public Opinion *Power Play* on Bulls -3.5
Bottom Line: I'm confident the public has this one right. The Bulls are the better team and they are in good current form. Atlanta will be without star forward Josh Smith. Plus, the Bulls will be very motivated by the fact that the Hawks have taken it to them the last few seasons. Chicago is now the better team, and it will look to send a message. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy Public Burial on Grizzlies -1
Bottom Line: Memphis has played San Antonio as tough as anyone this season, and I like the Grizzlies to get the win at home against the Spurs tonight. Memphis has now played several games without Rudy Gay and has had others step up. San Antonio, meanwhile, will struggle in its first full game without Tony Parker. Without Parker on the floor, Memphis was able to erase a huge deficit in Sunday's meeting. Plus, we saw how much the Spurs struggled last season when Parker missed significant time. The Grizz are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus their division, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take Memphis in the small chalk.

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Week (ESPN) on Illinois +9.5
Bottom Line: The Illini need this game in the worst way to boost their NCAA Tourney hopes. That motivation will be more than enough for Illinois to keep this one within the number. The Fighting Illini are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Jazz +5
Bottom Line: The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. With Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson and Favors, the Jazz have plenty of front court depth and talent to take Boston down to the wire tonight. The Celtics don't have nearly as much size and depth up front following their trade of Kendrick Perkins, especially since Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal are yet to return from injury. Boston's bench will be even thinner tonight with Delonte West expected to be held out with an ankle injury. Look for the Jazz to get the cover in their first home game following the All-Star break.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Villanova +5
Bottom Line: Following back-to-back defeats, Nova will be extremely motivated when it takes the floor tonight. The Wildcats have been solid on the road this season, winning 7 of 10 true road games, and they haven't had any problem against Notre Dame. Nova has won each of the last 2 meetings by 17 and 18 points respectively. Looking back, the Wildcats have taken 10 of the last 14, winning those contests by an average score of 80-70. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for Nova to get the cover as they play with a sense of desperation tonight.

4* Major Big Ten Super System Power Play on Northwestern +12
Bottom Line: Strongly believe the Wildcats will be the more motivated team today, so they are showing good value catching this many points. NW was absolutely embarrassed by Wisconsin to the tune of 78-46 last month, and it will be further motivated by a poor performance against Penn State in its last game. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (WISCONSIN) - off a win against a conference rival and up against an opponent that is off an upset loss at home by 10 points or more, are 71-34 ATS since 1997. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Monster Line Mistake on Lakers pk
Bottom Line: With Jeff Green no longer on the roster, and with Kendrick Perkins (the guy they traded him for) not yet able to play due to injury), the Lakers should be laying several points here. I strongly feel getting them at a pick is a gift. LA already had a big advantage in the paint over the Thunder, which is the reason why OKC traded for Perkins. I expect the Lakers to take advantage of their size in this one. LA has won 11 of the last 14 in this series. Take the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy Big East *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Villanova -6
Bottom Line: St. John's has defeated 3 straight ranked opponents, which has fed into their hype, but it can't be overlooked that all 3 of those wins came at home. The Red Storm hasn't had the same fortune on the road against high-caliber opponents, losing to Notre Dame, Louisville and Georgetown by an average of 21.7 points. Plus, the Red Storm have lost six straight to Villanova by an average of 12.1 points. Lastly, plays against road teams listed as an underdog or pick (ST JOHNS) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival and up against an opponent that is coming off an upset loss, are 43-19 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this system are winning by 9.6 points on average. Lay the points.

4* Major Big 12 Blowout on Oklahoma State -8.5
Bottom Line: This is a game the Cowboys want badly, as they have lost 4 in a row overall and lost by 1 at Tech last month. I'll gladly take the plunge, considering Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS all-time under coach Travis Ford as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Cowboys are winning these contests by an average of 16.2 ppg. Lay the points.

4* Major SEC Shocker on Auburn +4
Bottom Line: With Arkansas in a letdown spot following a big upset win over Kentucky, this is the perfect time to hop on the Tigers. Besides, Auburn is a perfect 6-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 67.4 to 63.1. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Friday Night *BLOOD BATH* on Trail Blazers -6.5
Bottom Line: This is a big letdown spot for the Nuggets following last night's win over the Celtics. It is also tough to win in Portland and this is the first road game for the Nuggets following their blockbuster trade. Don't expect the road to bring the same good fortune. The this series has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread. In fact, the home team have covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings. Also, Denver is just 11-23 ATS in the second games of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons and 16-28 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Blazers fell by 19 at Denver earlier this month, so don't expect them to show the Nuggets any mercy tonight. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA *Underdog Shocker* on T-Wolves +5.5
Bottom Line: The T-Wolves have given the Hornets fits this season. They won by 15 at home in December and by 12 in New Orleans earlier this month. I love their chances again tonight as the Hornets are expected to be without David West. The Hornets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Hornets are also just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the points.

4* Major NBA on TNT Bailout on Celtics -4.5
Bottom Line: The C's have the advantage in this one as they take on a Denver team looking to break in a whole new cast of players. Last night, we played against the Knicks, as Melo and Billups made their debuts, to earn a nice cover with the Bucks +7.5. Those two did some nice things, but it was evident that New York had some chemistry issues. That's expected in the first few games with a new team, and I believe Denver will go through it tonight. Boston's last two wins over Denver have come by 16 and 14 points. Expect the well-oiled Celtics to take advantage of the new-look Nuggets in this one.

5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year (TNT) on Heat -2.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls have been tough to take at home this season, but this is a tough spot for them. They used a lot of energy in last night's loss to Toronto. The Bulls didn't have Noah when they defeated the Heat by 3 points last month. Miami, however, didn't have King James, and Bosh also missed the majority of that one. Motivated to avenge that loss, and with the big three intact, expect Miami to prevail this evening. Plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI), good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after a blowout win by 20 points or more, are an impressive 91-49 ATS since 1996. Lay the points with the Heat tonight.

4* Major Non-Conference *Cash Cow* on Hawks +3
Bottom Line: Expect the Hawks to respond in a big way following last night's brutally embarrassing loss to the Lakers. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Atlanta has been a solid road team all season, and it looks like a solid investment in this motivated spot.

4* Major NCAAB Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Alabama -17.5
Bottom Line: Bama is a perfect 14-0 at home this season, where it is winning by an average of 20.4 points. The Tide defeated the Tigers by 10 on the road last month, and should have no problem doubling up on that figure tonight. The Crimson Tide are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 13.0 points or more. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Monster Line Mistake on Bucks +7.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks are getting way too much respect tonight. We can't expect Melo and Billups to step right in and for the Knicks to be a well-oiled machine in game 1. That's unrealistic. Plus, Milwaukee has had New York's number. The Bucks are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last 8 in the series, including 4-0 SU and ATS during this stretch at New York. It also bodes well for the Bucks that they were able to get a tune up game against the T-Wolves last night. Take the points as Milwaukee has an excellent opportunity to win this one outright.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Lakers -7
Bottom Line: The Lakers showed fatigue and apathy prior to the All-Star break, losing their last 3 games. Their last lost came to Cleveland, which owns the NBA's worst record. With plenty of time for that embarrassing loss to fester, I expect the now rested Lakers to do something about it tonight. Kobe showed that he still has some fire by putting on a show in the All-Star game to collect yet another All-Star MVP award. I expect to see more of that fire tonight. The Lakers have won their last 4 home games against the Hawks by an average of 15.3 points. We'll lay the points with LA here.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Illinois +11
Bottom Line: Illinois needs a signature win in the worst way to help get it off the bubble. That will be all the motivated the Illini need tonight. I'm not sure they'll be able to win this one outright, but I'm confident they can keep it close throughout. The Fighting Illini are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points while the Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (OHIO ST) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, against an opponent that is off a road loss, are 60-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Illinois and the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Syracuse +4
Bottom Line: Villanova needed to make a season-high 11 three-point shots to defeat the Orange last month. The Wildcats have not shot the ball well from deep lately, making just 32.6 percent of their three-point attempts the last three games. Expect Nova's struggles from deep to continue as the Orange make defending the three-point stripe a priority tonight. Nova has been a fool's gold favorite recently, going 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games in the chalk. The Wildcats are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. Lastly, the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. I really like the Orange to win this one outright but I'll take the points for a little extra insurance.

5* Wiseguy Sunday NCAAB Blowout on Maryland -10.5
Bottom Line: Off consecutive defeats on the road, Maryland returns home looking to take out its frustrations on an NC State team it has owned. The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Maryland. NC State has lost 7 of its last 8 true road games with those 7 defeats coming by an average of 17.3 points. The Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0 to 12.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Lay the points with Maryland.

4* Major Saturday Night NCAAB Bailout on Stanford pk
Bottom Line: The home court dominance in this series is too good to pass up. Consider that the home squad has rattled off 13 straight wins. Stanford, alone, has won 8 in a row at home against the Trojans. Looking to get back in the win column after consecutive defeats, and out for revenge for last month's brutal loss at Southern Cal, I fully expect Stanford's home dominance in this series to continue.

5* Wiseguy Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State -2
Bottom Line: Under coach Ford, Oklahoma State is 18-4 ATS as a home favorite or pick, winning these games by an average of 12.2 points. Even more impressively, the Cowboys are 11-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 80% under Ford. The Cowboys are defeating these teams by an average of 13.7 points. As if back-to-back road losses aren't enough motivation, a brutally embarrassing loss at Texas A&M last month will fuel State's fire tonight. Lay the points as the Cowboys have their revenge.

4* Major SEC Game of the Week on Auburn +11
Bottom Line: Off 3 straight big wins over Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia, and with Tennessee on deck, Vandy won't give the Tigers the respect they deserve today. Auburn will be lacking no motivation following an awful showing against Ole Miss. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 12-4-3 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Louisville -3.5
Bottom Line: The Cards are 16-2 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 at home in Big East play. Pitino slapped a matchup zone on the Huskies in the season's first meeting that gave them all kinds of fits. As a result, Louisville was able to record a 3rd straight win over Calhoun's kids. The Cards did not play well at all in a loss at Cincy in their last game, so you can bet they'll be very hungry tonight. UConn may be out for revenge, but Louisville has had its number. It has stole games at UConn each of the last 2 seasons and won by 13 at home a year ago. UConn is so reliant on Walker's scoring that it is extremely susceptible when teams make him take a lot of shots to get his points. Louisville certainly has the horses to do that to him here. The Huskies are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Friday games. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy WCC Game of the Year on Gonzaga -13.5
Bottom Line: Gonzaga has had this game circled since it lost by 14 at Santa Clara last month. Santa Clara guard Kevin Foster shout out of his mind in that game. Shots never fall as easily on the road, and the Zags will make sure Foster doesn't get the same looks tonight. The Bulldogs have had no trouble handing their business at home against the Broncos. In fact, Gonzaga has won 12 of its last 13 at home in this series by an average of 19 points. Their last 3 home wins over the Broncos have come by 34 points or more. Santa Clara was blown out by 25 at St. Mary's, and Gonzaga is certainly capable of putting it on the Broncos as well. The Broncos are only 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. Also, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the Zags.

4* Major NBA on TNT Primetime Punisher on Bulls -1.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls are 24-4 at home this season where they own wins over the Lakers, Celtics, Heat, Mavs and Magic. Motivated by a loss at San Antonio early in the season, expect the Bulls to add the Spurs to this list. This is the Spurs' 9th straight road game. In other words, they are very fatigued at this point and can't wait for the All-Star break. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Bulls.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Jazz -5
Bottom Line: Utah has lost 4 straight home games, but I'm confident it won't lose a fifth. After all, the Jazz haven't lost 5 in a row at home in nearly 30 years. The Warriors have been playing some good ball, but keep in mind that they have been playing it at home. Golden State has only played 3 road games dating back to Jan. 9, and it lost all 3 of them. In fact, the Warriors are just 6-18 away from home this season, where they are losing by an average of 8.0 points. The Jazz have had no problem with Golden State in Utah. They have won 27 of the last 30 at home by an average score of 108-97. The Jazz fell by 1 point to Phoenix last night, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. The Warriors defeating the struggling Hornets last night, but they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take Utah.

4* Major NCAAB Double Digit Blood Bath on Illinois -9
Bottom Line: Going back to 1998, Illinois has won 18 of 23 meetings with Michigan. During this span, the Illini are a perfect 10-0 in games played at home against the Wolverines, and they have won those games by an average of 15 points. Also, the Fighting Illini are an unbeaten 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Motivated by Sunday's loss to Purdue, look for the Illinois to continue its dominance over Michigan.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Letdown Game of the Year on Purdue -4
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Wisconsin after knocking off previously undefeated Ohio State. In addition, this is a revenge spot for Purdue, which lost by 7 at Madison early this month. Wisconsin has won in West Lafayette, Ind., only twice in nearly 40 years, and No. 11 Purdue is undefeated at home this season. Plus, Wisconsin hasn't been nearly as good away from home in 2010-11. The Badgers are just 3-4 with a loss at Penn State and an overtime win at last-place Iowa in their last 2. Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 75.1 to 58.6. Take Purdue.

4* Major NBA Dog of the Night on Jazz +4.5
Bottom Line: The Jazz have had 3 days to prepare following a disappointing loss to Phoenix in which they blew a double-digit halftime lead, and I expect them to do something about it this evening. Utah is a terrific 21-9 ATS following a home loss over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 103.2 to 97.7. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Phoenix. Expect Utah to have its revenge this evening.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Bulls -9
Bottom Line: This is a big letdown spot for the Bobcats playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road following a big blowout win over the Lakers. This is also a big revenge spot for the Bulls, which have dropped the first two meetings of the season with Charlotte. In fact, plays on any team (CHICAGO) looking to avenge an upset loss to an opponent in a home game in which it was favored by 7 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), are an impressive 48-21 ATS since 1996. Also, Charlotte is a dismal 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games in the second half of the season when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%). It is losing these contests by an average of 13.6 points. Bet the Bulls tonight.

4* Major ACC Game of the Week on Maryland +4.5
Bottom Line: The Terps will be out for blood tonight as they look to avenge a 17-point home loss to the Hokies this evening. I'd say Maryland's chances are pretty darn good, considering it has either won or lost by 4 points or less in 6 of the last 7 series meetings. Maryland is 13-4 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons and a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are also an impressive 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Hokies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Lastly, the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Nuggets +2.5
Bottom Line: Denver is the superior team in this matchup, and I believe it will prove it tonight. The Nuggets will be very hungry this evening after blowing a 17-point lead in a loss to Memphis Sunday. Plus, a home loss to these Rockets last Monday will have the Nuggets even more focused and motivated. Denver's defense was absolutely horrendous against the Grizzlies, but that bodes well for us tonight. In fact, the Nugs are an impressive 20-7 ATS under coach Karl following a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. The Nuggets have bounced back to win by an average score of 108.0 to 101.2 in this situation. Prior to last week's defeat, Denver had either won or lost by 2 points or less to the Rockets in 7 straight meetings. Take Denver.

4* Major on Hawks -4.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks are the better team in this matchup. With rest and revenge factors in their favor, expect them to prove it this evening. An embarrassing 23-point loss at Detroit in December will be fresh on the minds of the Hawks when they take the floor tonight. History tells us this is a good thing. In fact, plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) looking to avenge an upset loss, if they are coming off a home defeat, are a rock solid 99-50 ATS since 1996. This is a second game of a back-to-back for the Pistons, and their 5th game in 7 days. This is just Atlanta's 3rd game in 7 days. Take the much more rested Hawks in this revenge spot.

4* Major NBA Game of the Night on Warriors pk
Bottom Line: The Warriors are a respectable 17-11 at home this season where they have recent wins over Utah, Chicago and Denver. Following one of their worst defeats of the season at Phoenix, I expect Golden State to come storming back in its return home tonight. Consider that the Warriors are a ridiculous 22-5 ATS the last 2 seasons when coming off a road loss by 10 or more points. The Warriors are winning these games outright by an average score of 110.2 to 109.4. The Warriors have had 2 days to gear up for this one while OKC is being asked to play its 2nd game in 2 days. Look for Golden State to exploit OKC's fatigued legs by pushing the tempo here.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Month on Minnesota +1
Bottom Line: I like what Fran McCaffery is doing at Iowa, but they won't be ready for Tubby Smith's Golden Gophers today. Minnesota has won 5 in a row over the Hawkeyes and 4 of those wins have come by 10 or more points. Motivated by 4 straight defeats, expect Minnesota to continue its dominance over Iowa. Plus, it will be tough for Iowa to match Minnesota's level of desperation here after such an emotionally and physically draining overtime loss to Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Iowa. Take Minnesota.

4* Major on Duquesne -5
Bottom Line: The Dukes have won their last 2 home meetings against the Musketeers by 2 and 4 points respectively. Now, they have a team capable of beating Xavier in their home gym by a comfortable margin. With a week to prepare, and with last year's 36-point butt-whooping at Xavier fueling the fire, expect Duquesne to play inspired ball today. The Dukes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and a spotless 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Lay the points.

4* Major Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Month on Wichita State pk
Bottom Line: The Panthers have not been the same team since Lucas O'Rear went down, losing to Drake and Evansville. If the Panthers couldn't get by those squads without O'Rear, they're going to have a heck of a time getting past Wichita State without him tonight. The Shockers have had this one circled ever since falling at home by 3 to UNI last month. I fully expect them to return the favor here. The Shockers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 70.7 to 56.7. In addition, road teams listed as a favorite or pick looking to avenge a home upset loss to an opponent, with 2 more starters returning from last year than that opponent, are an impressive 75-38 ATS since 1997. Take Wichita State.

5* Wiseguy Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on UNLV -1
Bottom Line: I fully expect UNLV to take care of business on its home floor tonight. The Running Rebels played the Aztecs to a 6-point game on the road last month, and that loss will motivate them here. UNLV also benefits from a couple of SDSU's key guys being banged up. Tim Shelton and Chase Tapley are both doubtful for this contest, and having Tapley at anything other than 100 percent will really hurt the Aztecs against this talented UNLV squad. SDSU is a good basketball team but a bit overhyped. BYU already exposed SDSU, and UNLV will do it again. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Under coach Kruger, UNLV is 32-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Also, UNLV is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread. The Rebs are winning by an average score of 78.1 to 64.6 in this situation. Pound UNLV.

4* Major SEC Game of the Month (ESPN) on Tennessee +5.5
Bottom Line: Off consecutive SEC losses and playing on the road, Tennessee has been pure gold. In fact, the Vols have won 9 straight games ATS in this situation. Tennessee has also been one bad junkyard "dog". Consider that the Vols are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Florida, meanwhile, has not fared well when laying points. The Gators are just 3-11 ATS as a favorite this season. Motivated by last month's loss to Florida, I expect Tennessee to have its revenge here.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Jazz -6
Bottom Line: It's sad to see a Hall of Famer like Jerry Sloan call it quits, especially in this fashion at mid-season, but I fully expect the Jazz to be sparked tonight following his exit. We have seen the way the Bobcats and Pacers were sparked by coaching changes, and I expect the same to take place in Utah. We're also playing the revenge angle tonight. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) looking to avenge a same season loss, provided the team they playing is coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, are 40-14 ATS since 1996. This system is an impressive 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take Utah.

5* Wiseguy NBA Primetime Punisher on Knicks +3.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks have quietly been one of the best investments in the NBA at 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games. They have been an insanely profitable investment when catching points. The Knicks are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Recently, the Knicks have been money in the bank following a defeat. In fact, they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. With the Lakers still riding high after last night's win over Boston, and with New York out to avenge a loss at L.A. last month, the Knicks are in prime position to take down another giant at MSG, where they have already defeated San Antonio and Miami. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Warriors +6.5
Bottom Line: Motivated by 2 prior defeats to Phoenix this season, including an embarrassing performance Monday, expect the Warriors to answer the call tonight. "We played terrible, it's embarrassing," said guard Monta Ellis. That kind of disgust often fuels a great performance, and I expect no less this evening. The Warriors are 20-9 ATS versus terrible defensive teams allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 111.4 to 109.3. The Warriors are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Lastly, the underdog is an impressive 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Take the points.

4* Major Primetime Punisher (TNT) on Lakers +2.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers have struggled against the upper echelon teams in the NBA this season, but I expect them to snap out of it tonight. Having just lost to Boston at home by double digits on Jan. 30, the Lakers will be extremely motivated. Plus, they will enter this contest with a great deal of confidence following back-to-back road wins over quality Western Conference opponents. Also, Shaq is not expected to play tonight. He gave the Celtics a nice boost off the bench on the defensive end in Boston's recent win over L.A. I have a feeling the C's will miss his presence in the paint against his former team. The Lakers are an impressive 13-2 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive road wins over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 102.4 to 94.2. Bet the Lakers.

4* Major on Bulls +1
Bottom Line: The Bulls haven't lost 3 games in a row all season, and I don't expect this trend to come to an end here against the struggling Jazz. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 4.5 of fewer points. The Jazz are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Chicago to bounce back strong tonight.