Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major "Total" Blowout on Warriors/Nuggets UNDER 213
Bottom Line: After 3 consecutive Overs, I expect this one to come in well Under the total as Denver really picks up the "D" in an attempt to stave off elimination. Plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210 are 27-5 since 1996 if they are out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and their opponent is off an upset win by 10 points or more. This system is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 seasons. Also, Plays Under on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210 are 25-5 since 1996 if they are off an upset win of 10 points or more. This system is 4-0 the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Opening Round Game of the Year on Nuggets -7.5
Bottom Line: I love Denver tonight at home where it is 24-1 in its last 25. Denver has taken care of business at home all season, even against quality competition. It is 17-6 ATS this season in home games when playing against a team with a winning record and has won these contests by 8.9 points on average. The Nuggets are also 54-37 ATS under coach Karl as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and have won these games by an average of 9.9 points. They are 41-26 ATS under Karl in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 110 points or more on them and 58-38 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Warriors are just 4-15 ATS under Jackson in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Pound Denver.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Rockets +1.5
Bottom Line: The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Plus, Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +1.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Pacers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Bulls/Nets UNDER 180.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 30-14-1 in the Bulls' last 45 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Under is 5-2 in the Nets' last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

4* Major NBA *POWER PLAY* on Nets -5.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a game in which they covered the spread.

4* Major on Nuggets/Warriors UNDER 212.5
Bottom Line: Denver is 17-6 UNDER when out for revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. We have seen just 200.2 total points scored on average in these contests.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets -1.5
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on 1 day of rest, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Golden State is 8-18 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

4* Major on Lakers +11.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on 1 day of rest.

4* Major on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 189.5
Bottom Line: The UNDER is 8-2 in the Spurs' last 10 road games. The UNDER is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings between these teams, including 9-3 in the last 12 in L.A.

4* Major on Bucks +9
Bottom Line: The Heat have had 3-0 leads in the first round the last 2 years - Philadelphia in 2011 and the Knicks in 2012 - but lost Game 4 each time. Milwaukee is on a 114-79 ATS run following 3 or more consecutive defeats.

4* Major on Celtics +2.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics won't roll over. This veteran team has way too much pride. Boston is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival the last 3 seasons. Teams headed up by Mike Woodson are 3-14 ATS in road playoff games.

4* Major on Knicks/Celtics OVER 180.5
Bottom Line: Plays on the OVER on any team (NY in this case) that held its last opponent to 80 points or less and is up against a team that has scored 90 points or fewer in 4 straight games are 75-36 since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks -2
Bottom Line: The Pacers are 0-11 in their last 11 games in Atlanta with these defeats coming by nearly 11 points on average. All of these losses came by at least 3 points. The home team has won 6 straight and 11 of the last 12 meetings. Pound the Hawks!

4* Major NBA Bailout on Lakers +5.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 6-0 in their last 6 and 13-1 in their last 14 home games. The Spurs are 0-7 in their last 7 on the road. Even with all of LA's injury issues, I like its chances of keeping this one within the number.

4* Major NBA *POWER PLAY* on Celtics -2.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics are 14-4 in their last 18 home games and 13-2 in their last 15 home games versus the Knicks. The Knicks are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game while the Celtics are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Knicks/Celtics OVER 183.5
Bottom Line: The Over is 7-3 in the Celtics' last 10 home games and 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Plays Over on any team (NY in this case) after a blowout win by 15 points or more that is matched up against an opponent that has scored 80 points or less 2 straight games are 10-2 the last 5 seasons.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Grizzlies -4.5
Bottom Line: Memphis has dropped the first two games of the series, but I expect it to get back in the series tonight at home where it is 14-1 in its last 15 games. The Grizzlies are an outstanding 25-12 ATS following 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. They are 45-24 ATS when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. They are also 26-11 ATS in their last 37 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 179.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 4-0 in Memphis' last 4 home games, and we've see just 156, 178 and 169 total points scored in the last 3 of these. The Under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Memphis. We haven't seen more than 178 total points scored in these with three of them at 172 or less. Memphis is at its best defensively at home and should get enough stops to send this one comfortably under the number.

4* Major Game 3 *SUREFIRE* on Bucks +7.5
Bottom Line: The Bucks will put forth their best effort of the series tonight in front of their home fans. They won't be lacking any confidence as they have a 19-point win over the Heat in Milwaukee this season. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs First Round Total of the Year on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 187
Bottom Line: These two combined for 197 points in Game 1, but Atlanta shot 50.0 percent from the field, and the Pacers were 30 of 34 from the foul line. I don't see the Hawks shooting the ball as well in Game 2 versus the NBA's top defensive team. I also don't see the Pacers living at the foul line the way they did in Game 1. They only average 24 trips per game. The Hawks have been a terrific unders bet in the first round of the playoffs, going under the number in 12 of their last 16 conference quarterfinal games. They have also been known to ratchet things up defensively following a blowout defeat, going 6-2 Under in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Road teams when total is between 180 and 189.5 points that are playing 6 or less games in 14 days and have failed to cover the spread in at least 8 of their last 10 games are 57-26 since 1996. Pound the Under!

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Bailout on Nuggets -8
Bottom Line: The Nuggets won Game 1 at home despite not playing very well. I expect a stronger performance from them here against a Golden State squad that will be without All-Star forward David Lee. The Nuggets have won 24 straight at home and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games versus Golden State. Pound Denver.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Celtics +7
Bottom Line: The Celtics blew an excellent opportunity in Game 1 by laying an egg in the 4th quarter, but I expect this veteran squad to bounce back strong. The C's have won or lost by less than 7 points in 22 of their last 27 on the road in this matchup. Take the points in what should be a close contest.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Knicks OVER 185.5
Bottom Line: Neither team played very well offensively in Game 1, but that should change tonight. Plays "Over" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (NY in this case) that are off a win against a division rival, a well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, are 259-173 since 1996. That's a long-term 60% system. The total was 185.2 on average in these contests, but we have seen teams combine for 189.1 points on average. I expect this game to be very physical as well, which means plenty of trips to the foul line for both teams. Points being scored with no time running off the clock in an over-lovers dream.

4* Major Game 2 *SUREFIRE* on Bucks +14.5
Bottom Line: The Heat rolled in Game 1, but the odds are stacked against them winning by 15+ tonight. That's because the Bucks have lost to Miami by more than 13 points just 2 times in the last 16 meetings. We'll bet the Bucks behind this 14-2 trend.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Grizzlies +5.5
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies have lost their last two against the Clippers but are 30-16 ATS when playing with double revenge the last 3 seasons. Also, Memphis is 16-5 ATS lifetime under coach Hollins when out for revenge for a loss of 20 points or more to a foe. It has won by an average of 4.0 points in this situation.

4* Major NBA Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 181.5
Bottom Line: Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA so it will be out to prove that tonight after letting LA get whatever it wanted in Game 1. Memphis' defense is a big reason why it is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 versus Western Conference foes. It's also worth mentioning that the Grizzlies are 11-3 UNDER this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent.

4* Major NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Nets UNDER 183.5
Bottom Line: Look for the Bulls to pick up the "D" following a poor defensive effort in Game 1 and for this one to come in under the total because of it. They are 29-14-1 UNDER in their last 44 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls +5
Bottom Line: Chicago bounces back in Game 2. The Bulls won 3 of 4 with the Nets during the regular season. They split in Brooklyn, but the loss came by just 4 points. The Bulls have lost to the Nets by more than 4 points only twice in the last 12 meetings. Pound Chicago!

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME POWER PLAY* on Bucks +13.5
Bottom Line: The defending champs are being overvalued in their series opener with the Bucks. Milwaukee has lost to Miami by more than 13 points just 1 time in the last 15 meetings. We'll bet the Bucks behind this 14-1 trend.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Spurs -8.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs lost their regular-season finale at home, but you won't catch me fading them here. They are 10-1 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons and have won by an average of 12.1 points in this situation. San Antonio is also 10-1 ATS at home the last 2 seasons in games played in the 2nd half of the schedule versus teams that have won between 51-60% of their games. They have defeated these teams by 14.2 points on average. Pound the Spurs.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Grizzlies +5
Bottom Line: The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Grizzlies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Also, the road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Grizzlies have lost to the Clippers by more than 4 points just 3 times in the last 12 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets -4.5
Bottom Line: Playing favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off 2 or more consecutive home wins in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of 51% to 60% are 45-21 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 5.4 points on average but have won by 7.7 points on average. This line is a little soft. Bet Brooklyn.

4* Major Early *SUREFIRE* on Celtics +7
Bottom Line: The road team has been the play between these two as it is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Plus, the Celtics are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings at New York.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Rockets +2.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers rose to the occasion with a win and cover versus San Antonio in their first game without Kobe but are an awful 8-22 ATS under coach D'Antoni following an ATS win. They have lost in this situation by an average of 1.5 points. Houston still has a chance to earn the sixth seed but could also drop to the eighth position with a loss so it definitely wants to take care of business here to avoid Oklahoma City in the first round. The Lakers will struggle tonight without Kobe against a motivated team.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Spurs -8.5
Bottom Line: All indications are the Spurs will play their big guns as they look to gain some momentum before the playoffs. They should have little trouble with an overmatched Minnesota squad as they are 16-0 in their last 16 at home in the series, winning those by 13.2 points on average.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Raptors +6
Bottom Line: The Hawks have been overvalued at home all season and that remains the case here. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Hawks are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. The Raptors are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 with a pair of wins over Chicago and a win over Brooklyn. They're clearly looking to finish the season strong. Pound Toronto.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bobcats pk
Bottom Line: The Knicks have wrapped up the #2 seed in the East and are now content with calling off the dogs until the postseason begins. Carmelo Anthony, among other key players, is expected to sit this one out. The Bobcats are trying to build some momentum for next season and definitely want to notch their 20th win of the season. While the road has been hard on them all year, they have won 6 of their last 8 at home. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus Atlantic division opponents. Also, the Knicks are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Spurs/Lakers OVER 196.5
Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to the Kobe Bryant injury as these two have combined for 213, 218 and 203 total points in 3 of the last 4 meetings. The Lakers are 4-0 OVER in their last 4 and have scored at least 100 points in 9 of their last 11 games. The Spurs have given up an average of 98.5 in their last 4 games. I like L.A. to score enough to push this one over even without Bryant.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Suns +5
Bottom Line: The Suns will be out for some serious revenge for a 31-point home loss they were handed by Minnesota last month, and they should from having the last 2 days off. Minnesota, meanwhile, will have taking the floor for the second time in as many nights and the fourth time in five days. History shows you should play against home favorites that have lost 4 of their last 5 games if they are in the second game of a back-to-back because doing so has turned in a 50-22 ATS result the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have laid an average of 5.0 points, but they have won by only 1.3 points on average.

4* Major NBA *BAILOUT* on Trailblazers +10
Bottom Line: Home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games that are matched up against a team that has covered the number in at least 6 of their last 8 are 38-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Blazers are clearly being undervalued because of their losing streak and have a good opportunity to earn a cover against a fatigued OKC squad that is playing its 3rd road game in 4 days.

4* Major on Hornets +9
Bottom Line: The Hornets have lost 2 straight to the Clippers since winning the first meeting of the season, but they are 34-20 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing with double revenge.

4* Major on Bucks +6.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks can't be trusted laying this many points at home where they are 14-23 ATS on the season and 0-5 ATS in their last 5. Also, Atlanta is a soft 36-55 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.

4* Major on Cavs +5
Bottom Line: Tough spot for the Knicks, who just lost a tough overtime game in Chicago last night. They'll have a very tough time bouncing back here against a much fresher Cleveland club. NY is a soft 2-14 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Year on Pacers -5.5
Bottom Line: With an opportunity to lock up the No. 3 seed in the East, I fully expect the Pacers to have their revenge against the Nets. The Nets have won this season's two prior meetings but you want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won 2 consecutive games against an opponent if they check in off an upset win in division play. That's because teams fitting these parameters are just 8-54 SU & 17-44-1 ATS the last 17 seasons. The Pacers have had 2 full days to gear up for this one. They are at home where they are 30-9 on the season, and they are the fresher, more motivated side. Pound the Pacers!

4* Major NBA *BAILOUT* on Warriors +4
Bottom Line: Golden State isn't getting the respect it deserves at home where it is 27-12 on the season, especially since the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Warriors won the season's prior home meeting by 5 points and lost by just 3 points the previous time they hosted the Thunder. The Warriors are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams that have a road winning percentage greater than .600.

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls +5
Bottom Line: Bulls have won 4 straight against the Knicks by 4 or more, including all 3 meetings this season, and aren't about to lay down here after an ugly home loss to Toronto. Nothing has ignited the Bulls like losing on their home floor. They are 22-8 ATS all-time under Tom Thibodeau following a home defeat, winning in these spots by an average of 10.0 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 191
Bottom Line: After a stretch where the Bulls held 4 straight opponents to 94 points or less, they have given up 99+ the last 2 games and lost them both as a result. They gave up 101 at home to Toronto last game which is uncharacteristic considering the Bulls have allowed an average of only 90.3 at home this season. Their recent losses actually play in our favor as Chicago is 19-6 UNDER since Tom Thibodeau took over at home if its enters with losses in 2 of its last 3 games. The Bulls have held their opponent to 88.0 points on average in these spots. We've seen total scores of 178 and 184 in the last two matchups between these teams in the United Center, and I expect another low-scoring one tonight in a game that should have a playoff feel.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER 204.5
Bottom Line: With both teams well-rested and both playing for home court advantages in the playoffs, I expect to see a very intense playoff atmosphere that greatly favors the under. The Spurs have really picked up the "D", especially on the road where they are 6-0 under in their last 6. The under is also 2-0-2 in the Spurs' last 4 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. It's also worth noting that the under is 3-0-1 in the Nuggets' last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game and 7-0-1 in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. We saw only 199 total points scored when these two last met March 27, and I expect this meeting to be lower scoring with the stakes ramped up even more. Pound the Under!

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Jazz +3.5
Bottom Line: The Jazz will want this game just a little bit more as they are in a dog fight for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. They are 29-10 at home this season and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. They have also won their last 2 at home versus OKC by 7 and 15 points. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +9.5
Bottom Line: Off one of its biggest wins of the season and with a big showdown against the Bulls on deck, New York won't give Washington its full attention. Plus, the Knicks are being overvalued here due to their 12-game winning streak. I'll grab the points with a Washington team that continues to compete as it is 12-4 ATS on the road as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

4* Major National Championship "Total" Dominator on Michigan/Louisville UNDER 139
Bottom Line: Oddsmakers have set the bar too high here and have done so purposefully knowing the public's desire to watch a high-scoring game drives it to bet the over. With all that's on the line here, I expect both teams to play a little tight early. Both teams do an excellent job of taking care of the basketball so I don't expect to see many points off turnovers. The Wolverines are on a 40-28 unders run 15+ games into the season versus teams that give up 64.0 points per game or less. Louisville is on a 50-36 unders run 15+ games in versus teams that allow 64.0 points or less per game. Plus, the Under is 4-0 in the Cardinals' last 4 versus the Big Ten and 6-1 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The Under is also 7-3 in the Wolverines' last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy National Championship *PUNISHER* on Louisville -3.5
Bottom Line: Louisville is 15-0 in its last 15 games, and all of these wins have come by 4 points or more. It is also 6-0 ATS when laying 3.5 to 6.0 points on a neutral floor the last 2 seasons and has won by 14.8 points on average in these contests. Now that's saying something! In games oddsmakers have expected to be pretty close, the Cardinals have won by wide margins. Michigan is the more talented offensive team, but Louisville is superior defensively and I'm a firm believer in the old adage "defense wins championships". The Cardinals are also the more experienced bunch, and I think they have the edge with Rick Pitino as well. I'll go with defense and experience in the national title. Pound Louisville.

5* Wiseguy NBA BEST BET *BAILOUT* on Trailblazers +3.5
Bottom Line: Dallas really can't afford any losses the rest of the way as it trails the Lakers by 3 games for the last playoff spot in the West. While the Mavs will be motivated, this is a tough spot for them as it's their 3rd game on the road in 4 days. The Blazers will be fresher, and I expect them to give Dallas all it wants and more. It has lost to the Mavs at home by more than 3 points only once in the last 7 meetings. Dallas is on a 24-37 ATS slide after covering the number in 2 of their last 3 games while Portland is on a 28-14 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the number in 2 of their last 3. Bet the Blazers.

5* Wiseguy Final Four *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Michigan -2
Bottom Line: You want to go against neutral court underdogs like Syracuse that have defeated the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games as long as they are up against an opponent like Michigan that has gone over the total by 18 or more points total in its last three games because doing so has produced a 37-12 ATS result since 1997. This system tightens up to 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. This system makes sense too when you consider that oddsmakers decided to make Syracuse the underdog even though it recently kicked an Indiana team that defeated Michigan twice this season. This tells me oddsmakers like Michigan's chances of handling the zone, and I could not agree more as the Wolverines have 3 proven zone-busters in Burke, Hardaway Jr. and Stauskas. Michigan lights up the Orange.

4* Major NBA *MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH* on Pacers -3.5
Bottom Line: While last night's 22-point home loss to Oklahoma City is motivation enough, the Pacers can clinch their first Central Division title in nine years with a win. That's where the true motivation lies. The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 9-0 in their last 9 versus Washington with these wins coming by an average of 9.8 points. It's also worth mentioning that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

4* Major Final Four *POWER PLAY* on Wichita State +10.5
Bottom Line: Louisville is being overvalued here. Consider that underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have won 2 or more consecutive games and are up against an opponent that has rattled off 9 or more consecutive wins are 71-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Louisville depends on turning opponents over and Wichita State doesn't have many giveaways. Also, Wichita State beat everyone Louisville beat in terms of like opponents this season and beat those teams just as impressively. The Shockers are 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this season, and I like them to give the Cards a game this evening.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Trailblazers +5.5
Bottom Line: The underdog is on a 6-1-1 ATS run in the series, and I expect this trend to continue. The Blazers have been without LaMarcus Aldridge, but he's expected to return tonight and I believe he'll give them a big lift. The Rockets have been overvalued against losing teams and are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games versus teams that have a losing record as a result. They have also failed to cover the number in 5 of their last 7 on the road.

4* Major on Suns +8
Bottom Line: Phoenix is 13-2 in its last 15 home games versus Golden State. Both of the losses came by only 2 points so the Suns are showing value here. Golden State is only 3-10 in its last 13 on the road and hasn't been on the road for a couple weeks so this is a difficult spot for the Warriors.

4* Major on Kings -2
Bottom Line: Big letdown spot for Dallas which blew a 4th-quarter lead and lost by a point at Denver last night. It will be mighty tough for the Mavs to picks themselves back up from that one. The Mavs have won the season's first 3 meetings but Sacramento is an impressive 112-78 ATS when playing with triple revenge since 1996.

4* Major Marquee Matchup on Pacers -2
Bottom Line: The Pacers have a big advantage in terms of fresh legs as they have had the last 3 days off while OKC played last night. The Pacers are a terrific 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Indiana is 29-8 at home which is worth mentioning since the Thunder are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks +7.5
Bottom Line: I love the Bucks catching a generous number as they have won or lost by 7 points or fewer in 19 of the last 23 meetings in the series. Now that's a 19-4 trend I can get behind. The Bucks still haven't clinched a playoff spot but can do so tonight with a win and a little help so I expect them to be the more motivated side.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Mavs +7
Bottom Line: The Mavs aren't getting nearly the respect they deserve here considering how badly they need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, the road team has absolutely dominated this series, going 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The road team has won 7 of these SU with one of the losses coming by a single point. Dallas has won its last 2 in Denver by double digits, and I expect it to give the Nuggets a game tonight.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Clippers -16
Bottom Line: This may seem like a lot of points, but the Clippers have lost 3 in a row and will be ready to take out their frustrations on the Suns. Phoenix actually won the most recent meeting, but LA is 14-6 ATS this season when out for revenge for a defeat. The Clippers will be further motivated by an opportunity to set a franchise record for regular season wins. They can also clinch their first division title with a win and a loss by Golden State. Phoenix has packed it in. It's giving its young guys more minutes as it is already focused on next year.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Celtics -7.5
Bottom Line: The C's will be out for blood against a Pistons team that has defeated them 4 straight times. The Pistons enter off a road win, but they have been awful on the road this season. Consider that they are 1-8 ATS off a road win this season, losing in this situation by an average of 14.1 points. Plus, Boston is 20-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Pound Boston!

4* Major Home Court *POWER PLAY* on Raptors -3.5
Bottom Line: Major home court advantage in play here as the home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Toronto is 5-1 in its last 6 home meetings in the series.

4* Major CBI Tournament *BLOOD BATH* on Santa Clara +1
Bottom Line: The Santa Clara Broncos are 9-0 ATS lifetime under coach Keating in postseason tournament games (excludes WCC tournament), winning these by an average score of 80.4 to 71.7. The Broncos are also a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in road games versus non-conference opponents. They have won these by an average of 6.5 points.

4* Major NBA BEST BET *BAILOUT* on Mavs +3
Bottom Line: Dallas has been playing better basketball down the stretch, and I don't see LA getting enough stops to get the job done here. The Mavs are 12-3 ATS the last 2 seasons in the second half of the season versus poor defensive teams that give up 99.0 ppg or more. The Lakers are constantly overvalued at home, especially against teams that have losing records. They are just 3-15 ATS in home games in the second half of the season versus teams with a losing record the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NIT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on BYU +3
Bottom Line: I know Baylor beat BYU back in December, but that game was at home. I don't trust the Bears outside Waco where they have lost or won by 3 points or less in each of their last 7. BYU, on the other hand, has won or lost by 3 points or less in each of its last 3 outside Provo. These two trends create a 10-0 angle in our favor. Pound the Cougars.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Clippers -4
Bottom Line: The Clippers won and covered easily at Indiana in the season's first meeting and are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 versus Central division foes. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Indiana is only 4-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. It has lost these by an average of 6.5 points.

4* Major CBI Tournament *POWER PLAY* on Santa Clara -7
Bottom Line: George Mason covered the spread with an impressive double-digit win over Western Michigan last time out but is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 after a win by 10 points or more and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win. The Broncos are a terrific 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. They are also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 post-season tournament contests. This trend excludes the WCC tournament. I'm talking about CBI and CIT games.

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Week on Blazers +9.5
Bottom Line: This is a big time bounce back spot and revenge spot for Portland, which lost Friday to Utah and was crushed Saturday by Golden State. Plays on road underdogs that are coming off a lopsided defeat of at least 20 points and are matched up against a team that has hit the century mark in 4 straight games are 50-26 (66%) ATS since 1996. These teams have faced an average line of 9.8 points but have lost by only 6.6 on average. Looks like this number is about 3 points off the mark.

4* Major Atlantic Division *SUREFIRE* on Celtics +7
Bottom Line: The Celtics are being undervalued here considering they have won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 18 of the last 20 meetings in the series. Now that's an 18-2 trend I can get behind. They've lost the last 2 in the series and were embarrassed in Boston Tuesday so they will be motivated to say the least. Take the points as the Celtics take the Knicks down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Spurs pk
Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Heat, who will be playing their 4th road game this week. That's a lot of ball and a lot of travel without much rest. The Spurs have been home since last Sunday night and have played only 2 games this week. They will be the fresher side. San Antonio will be lacking no confidence following back-to-back wins over the Nuggets and Clippers. The Spurs have beaten just about everyone at home where they are an impressive 32-4 on the season. They are 12-1 in their last 13 at home against the Heat, winning the last 2 home meetings in the series by 30 points. Pound San Antonio!

4* Major Elite 8 *POWER PLAY* on Louisville -3.5
Bottom Line: Louisville is on another level right now. Duke won the first meeting by 5 points back in November, but I fully expect the Cardinals to have their revenge. Louisville won the battle of the boards, shot a higher percentage from the field and held Duke to 5 of 20 from 3-point range in the first meeting. The difference was Duke getting to the foul line 27 times and converting on 23 of those trips. Louisville only made 14 trips to the charity stripe. I just don't see there being as large of a disparity at the foul line in this one. The Cards have won 13 in a row with each of these wins coming by at least 5 points. Take Louisville.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *PUNISHER* on Michigan +2.5
Bottom Line: Look for Michigan to ride the momentum of Friday's thrilling victory to a Final Four trip. I have no doubt Trey Burke will be the best player on the floor, and he has the better supporting cast. The Wolverines are far more talented than Florida offensively, and I expect them to bring the "D" after not doing so against Kansas should have got them beat. Michigan is an outstanding 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. It is also 7-1 ATS in all neutral court games this season. And, the Wolverines are 23-12 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Pound Michigan!

4* Major on Suns +10
Bottom Line: The value lies with the Suns as home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in at least 8 of their last 10 games are 68-34 ATS (67%) since 1996 if they're matched up against a team that has covered the number in at least 5 of its last 7 games. This system is surefire evidence of the way oddsmakers over inflate lines for hot teams against cold ones.

4* Major on Nets +4.5
Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade the Jazz. They have won 3 in a row and have covered the number in each of their last 6, but they take a big step up in competition tonight. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 31-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season.

4* Major on Rockets pk
Bottom Line: I locked in the Rockets on the money line but would not be surprised at all if they end up as a small home dog by the time this one closes. I like Houston here regardless because I feel this is a flat spot for LA as it is coming off a tough loss in San Antonio and is playing its 4th game in 5 days. In case the Rockets ended up catching points, I should mention that they are 10-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. I should also mention that the Clippers are 2-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less this season.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio State -4
Bottom Line: It's been a great run for Wichita State, but it takes a big step up in competition here. This will be the best team its played all season while you can argue that Ohio State just beat two teams (Iowa State, Arizona) that are better than the Shockers. The Buckeyes are playing with a ton of confidence right now, which has been evident in the way they have been able to execute in the closing seconds of the last two games in high-pressure situations. I expect the Shockers to hang around for a while, but Ohio State's experience and superior talent will take hold late, helping the Buckeyes pull away. Wichita State is 1-8 ATS lifetime under coach Gregg as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick. Pound the Buckeyes.

4* Major Elite *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Marquette +4.5
Bottom Line: I really like Marquette catching points here as it has won 3 of the past 4 meetings in the series and has covered the number in each of the last 5 meetings. The Golden Eagles have been an outstanding underdog under Buzz Williams, which is a testament to how well he prepares and how hard he gets his kids to play. They are 32-14 ATS as a dog under his watch. I'll grab the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Mavericks -4
Bottom Line: Look for the Bulls to fall flat on their faces here after an epic win over Miami. The Mavs will be out for blood after getting pummeled by the Pacers. They need this game because they are 1.5 games out of the #8 spot in the West. The Mavericks are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Pound Dallas.

4* Major Sweet 16 Bailout on Florida -12.5
Bottom Line: It's been a nice run for FGCU, but I'm confident it comes to an end here. Brett Comer has had a terrific tournament, but I believe he'll struggle with the quickness of Florida's guards. The Eagles need Comer to have a big game to have a chance, and I don't see it happening. FCGC needs to play uptempo to be effective, but Florida can play any style and that gives it a huge advantage. Plus, the Gators are the far superior defensive team. They rank 3rd in the country in scoring defense (53.8 ppg allowed) and 5th in field goal percentage defense (37.8%). The Gators are 26-13 ATS in the Dance under Donovan, including 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA *BAILOUT* on Trail Blazers -3
Bottom Line: Utah can't be trusted on the road where it has lost its last 9. The Jazz are 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season, losing by an average of 10.0 points in this situation. The Jazz lost the most recent meeting in Portland by 6 and are 9-21 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to and opponent the last 2 seasons.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 *PUNISHER* on Duke -2
Bottom Line: Duke is 20-1 with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. The 6'11'' sharp-shooter doesn't even have to score for the Blue Devils to be successful. He knocks 3's in at a 45.9% clip so opponents have to pay extra attention to him. That opens things up for the other guys. Also, Coach K has had Izzo's number. Duke is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 5 points. Pound the Dukies.

4* Major on Nuggets -6.5
Bottom Line: Denver has been tough as nails at home where it is 24-11 ATS this season. They are 14-4 ATS on the season at home where matched up against a team with a winning record and have won by an average of 9.4 points in this situation. The Nets are a soft 12-21 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

4* Major on T-Wolves +8
Bottom Line: The T-Wolves are playing their best basketball since early in the season. They lost a tough one to the Lakers Wednesday but are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. They have a win over the Thunder at home earlier in the season, and not has come easy for OKC in the Twin Cities. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Also, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

4* Major on Hornets +7
Bottom Line: I don't believe Miami will be over Wednesday's loss to the Bulls yet. It really wanted the record and coming up short puts it in a letdown spot. The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Also, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Grizzlies -4.5
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies have lost their first two this week after concluding last week with a win over Boston, but that won't keep me off them here. They are 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. They have won by an average of 9.4 points in these spots. Also, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Rockets are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. Pound the Grizz.

4* Major South Region *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Michigan +2
Bottom Line: Beilein has proven himself time and time again in the NCAA tournament. His teams are 13-3 ATS in the Dance dating back to 1997. He's also proven himself against the Big 12 with his squads going 9-1 ATS versus Big 12 foes since 1997. He's 2-0 ATS versus Bill Self since coming to Michigan. Siding with Beilein in this one.

4* Major Sweet 16 SUREFIRE on Oregon +10
Bottom Line: Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points are 70-36 ATS the last 5 seasons if they are off 2 or more consecutive wins and are matched up against an opponent off 9 or more consecutive wins. Basically, this system shows how oddsmakers overvalue teams on lengthy winning streak. The Ducks have come to play in the Dance, and I look for them to give Louisville a game.

4* Major Surefire Cinderella on La Salle +4.5
Bottom Line: Wichita State is being overvalued because it knocked off Gonzaga. Keep in mind that the Shockers made 14 3-point shots in that game. They average just 6 3-point makers on 32.6% shooting in road/neutral floor games on the season. La Salle is the superior long range team. It averages 8 3-point makes in road or neutral floor venues on 37.2% shooting. I expect it to win the long range battle and to have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset. La Salle has been getting beat on the boards, but that hasn't mattered. Consider that the Explorers are 9-0 ATS lifetime under coach Giannini after 3 straight games of being outrebounded by 6 or more boards. It has won by an average of 5.1 points in this spot. La Salle has won with offense most of the season, and offensive teams have given the Shockers the most trouble. The Explorers give up 45.6% shooting on average, but Wichita State is 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Marshall in road/neutral floor after 15+ games versus teams allowing 45% shooting or higher. The Shockers have lost to these teams by an average of 4.6 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA BEST BET Bailout on Suns +2
Bottom Line: The Suns have owned the Kings in Phoenix where they are 12-1 in the last 13 meetings. The Kings won at Golden State last night, but they are still just 7-30 on the road. Plus, that win sets them up for a major letdown as it was their first of the entire season on the road versus a winning team. The Kings will be feeling pretty good about themselves, and I believe they'll already be looking ahead to Saturday's matchup with the Lakers. Suns continue their home dominance in the series tonight.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Indiana -5
Bottom Line: I have felt Indiana is the best team in college basketball all season, and I stand by that. Both of these teams are top-notch defensively, but Indiana is the superior offensive side. That gives it the big edge. Besides, Boeheim's track record in the Sweet 16 is not encouraging. The Orange are 0-6 ATS under Boeheim in the "sweet 16" round of the NCAA tournament. They haven't just lost these games, they've lost them by 7.7 points on average.

4* Major NBA *POWER PLAY* on Bucks +1.5
Bottom Line: Very tough spot for the short-handed Lakers, who just played last night and are playing their 3rd road games in 4 days. The Lakers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Lakers are 21-44-1 ATS in their last 66 games versus a team with a losing record, 17-39 ATS in their last 56 games following a win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Lakers are also 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee. The underdog is 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Milwaukee just played last night too, but it has a deeper bench and this is just its 2nd game in 4 days.

4* Major *BLOOD BATH* on Ohio State -3
Bottom Line: Arizona had a nice draw with Belmont and Harvard, but it takes a big step up in competition here and I believe it will get hit in the mouth. The Buckeyes have won 10 in a row by an average of 11.5 points with each of these wins coming by at least 3. Ohio State's defense will be the difference as Arizona hasn't seen a team as good defensively as Ohio State in a very long time.

4* Major *POWER PLAY* on Marquette +5.5
Bottom Line: Everyone and their mother is on Miami, but I'll gladly take the points with this physical and gritty Marquette squad. The Golden Eagles are an impressive 31-14 ATS under coach Williams in the underdog role. They have lost these games on average but only by 2.9 points. Plus, Marquette is 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage above 80%. It has lost to these teams on average but only by 0.6 points. Gotta take the points here.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bulls +5.5
Bottom Line: Miami's 27-game run very well could come to an end tonight. The Heat have been down by double digits against 4 of their last 5 opponents but have been able to flip a switch. It will be much harder to flip that switch against a Bulls team that is capable of playing championship-caliber defense. The Bulls won at Miami earlier this season but were beat badly at home in the most recent meeting, which will provide added incentive. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus teams from the East.

4* Major *BIG CHALK BLOWOUT* on Thunder -13
Bottom Line: This is a game OKC wants badly. The Thunder were defeated in Washington in the first meeting and will be out for some cold, hard revenge as a result. The Thunder are 13-4 ATS this season in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Thunder kicked Portland by 20 points last time out and are 12-4 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Lakers -4.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers will be lacking no motivation following 3 consecutive defeats that have shrunk their lead over Utah for the 8th spot in the West to one game. I'll gladly take them against Minnesota in this motivated spot as they are 21-0 in their last 21 against the Wolves, winning these games by an average of 11.9 points. Minnesota just earned a road win last night but hasn't won back-to-back games since mid-December. Pound LA.