Sports Picks & Predictions

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 3 *BEST BET* on Heat -4.5

Bottom Line: The Heat are 40-9 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.  They are 29-5 at home in the playoffs since the start of the 2012 postseason and are 11-0 in their last 11 home playoff games going back to last year's Finals.  These 11 victories carry an 11.6-point average margin of victory.  The Spurs have shown some weakness on the road where they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9.  They've lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in these playoffs with the 3 defeats coming by 11, 9 and 13.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  Pound Miami.

4* Major NBA Finals GM 2 *SUREFIRE* on Heat +4.5

Bottom Line: Miami wants a 3-peat just as badly as San Antonio wants revenge, and I'm not hesitating to back the Heat plus the points in this bounce-back spot.  The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Spurs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Playing against home favorites that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 94-53 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against an opponent that allowed 110 points or more in its last game.  The Heat were going good in Game 1 until LeBron James started having cramping issues.  They'll come storming back here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The Spurs have finished OVER the total in back-to-back games.  The Heat are 4-0-1 OVER in their last five.  These trends are significant because teams that are off 2 or more consecutive OVERS and matched up against an opponent off 4 of more consecutive OVERS are on a 125-69 UNDERS run the last 5 seasons (note: this system excludes pushes).  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Spurs' last 16 games following a win of more than 10 points and 6-1 in the Heat's last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  GM 1 would have gone under easily if the Spurs and Heat didn't combine for 25 made 3-point shots.  We hadn't seen more than 18 total 3-point makes in the previous 4 meetings so I definitely don't expect the long balls to fall so often in GM 2.  Additionally, Miami will place a big emphasis on the defensive end after allowing San Antonio to shoot 58.8% from the floor.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, playing the UNDER on teams that scored 110 points or more in 2 straight games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 24-6 (80%) record since 1996 if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half last game.  We've seen an average of only 182.9 total points scored in this situation.  This number is off the mark considering these teams have combined for 198 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 3 of the last 4 matchups.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 PUNISHER on Spurs -4

Bottom Line: Last year's NBA Finals loss to the Heat is all the motivation the Spurs will need in Game 1.  San Antonio has been unbeatable at home in the playoffs.  It is 8-0 in its last 8 home games with a 21.5-point average margin of victory in these contests.  Each of these wins came by at least 6 points.  Additionally, the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Thunder -158

Bottom Line: I'm taking the Thunder on the money line to rule out any sort of backdoor ATS loss in a game I fully expect them to win.  OKC has complete confidence at home where it is on a 9-0 run versus the Spurs.  All 9 wins have come by at least 6 points.  The Spurs are 0-3 in their last 3 road games, losing these contests by 11.0 points on average.  The Thunder are 4-0 in their last 4 at home, winning these by 8.5 points on average. The home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins combing by 9 points or more.  Pound the Thunder.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat UNDER 182.5

Bottom Line: With all that's on the line for both teams, I expect a tense, slow-paced, defensive-minded game to come in under the number.  We saw only 175 total points scored when these teams met in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers are an incredible 34-15 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Pacers +7.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued on the road because of what happened in the first 2 games of this series in Miami.  They lost them both by 12 points, but they weren't facing elimination in either.  Teams staring elimination in the face tend to play with desperation.  We saw that from Indiana last game, and we saw it in their first round series against Atlanta.  After losing highly competitive series' to the Heat the past 2 seasons, Indiana made a concerted effort to get home court so that it would have the edge in another playoff series.  It knows its gets a Game 7 at home so it will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of getting an opportunity to play a Game 7 in its own building.  Indiana cannot stomach losing in the playoffs to the Heat 3 consecutive seasons so I'm expecting an outstanding effort.  Additionally, the Pacers have started to figure out the Heat.  After allowing Miami to shoot above 50% in the first 3 games, they have held the Heat to 46.4% and 45.3% in the last two.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of the last 9 meetings and 12 of the last 19.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major GM5 *SUREFIRE* on Spurs -4.5

Bottom Line: Look for the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are on a 7-0 run in these playoffs.  Each of these 7 wins came by 6 points or more with the last 6 by no less than 17 points.  The home team is a dominant 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5.  Each of these 5 victories came by at least 9 points. 

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Finals Total of the Year on Thunder/Spurs OVER 206

Bottom Line: The last 3 games of this series have come in under the number, and we are catching a very favorable number as a result, especially in San Antonio where these teams have averaged 211.3 points over the past 4 meetings.  The Spurs are 20-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders the last 3 seasons.  They are 18-9 OVER in home games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Spurs are 6-2 OVER in their last 8 home games and 12-3 OVER in their last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 5-0 OVER in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Pound the OVER.

4* Major NBA *SUREFURE* on Pacers +3

Bottom Line: Look for Indiana to rise to the occasion and extend this series.  Home court has been too meaningful in this matchup to ignore.  The home team is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.  Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge against an opponent off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite has resulted in a 69-37 ATS record since 1996. 

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: We've seen 186 and 192 total points scored in the last 2 games of this series, but both of those were in Miami.  These teams are on a 4-1 UNDERS run in Indiana where they have combined to average just 176.4 points during this span.  Indiana is 19-7 UNDER in home games when the total is 180.0-189.5 this season.  We've seen an average of just 181.1 total points scored in these games.  Expect a slow-paced, defensive war in this elimination game.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Thunder -140

Bottom Line: I fully expect the Thunder to cover the 2.5 points, but I'm taking them on the money line for insurance.  The return of Ibaka made a huge difference in Game 3, and his presence will be felt again.  Plus, coach Brooks' decision to play Reggie Jackson alongside Westbrook and to give Steven Adams extended minutes paid off as well.  We'll see more of the same tonight.  After getting Game 3, the Thunder will be lacking no confidence, especially in this building where they are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 versus the Spurs.  They have won these by an average of 10.9 points.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +6.5

Bottom Line: Indiana is a team of response, going 31-17 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road loss.  Recently, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following any loss.  They have really responded well following embarrassing double-digit defeats.  In fact, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of 10 points or more and have won these contests by 6.0 points on average.  Prior to Game 3, these teams had traded wins in 13 consecutive games which shows how competitive this series has been.  We'll pound the Pacers catching points in this double-revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER 184

Bottom Line: Indiana hasn't been at its best defensively in this series, and it knows it.  That's why it is currently facing a 2-1 series deficit.  After allowing the Heat to connect on 54.4% of their shots in Game 3, the Pacers will tighten the screws tonight.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Indiana's last 6 games following a loss and 7-3 in its last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 34-14 UNDER on the season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points.  We've seen an average of just 180.8 total points scored in these games.  Miami's defense has been solid the past 2 games, holding the Pacers to just 83 and 87 points.  The Heat are 23-11 UNDER in home games after holding foes to 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Spoelstra.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -2

Bottom Line: The Spurs have looked unstoppable thus far in the series, but Kevin Durant and company won't go down without a fight.  With the home crowd behind them, the Thunder will come storming back in Game 3.  OKC is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Spurs, winning these by 11.1 points on average.  The Spurs have been unconscious at home lately, but the road hasn't treated them nearly as well.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Pound the Thunder.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pacers +7

Bottom Line: The Pacers aren't getting the respect they deserve with this number, even if Paul George can't go.  They are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games, winning them by an average of 9.6 points.  They are also 7-0 in their last 7 games following a defeat, winning these contests by 7.1 points on average.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 5 of its last 6 games versus Miami.  Grab the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 212

Bottom Line: The Thunder will make a concerted effort to keep San Antonio out of the paint after what happened in Game 1.  In order to do so, they'll play a bigger lineup, and they'll ask their smalls to do a better job of defending the drive on the perimeter.  This strategy will force the Spurs to take more perimeter shots, which should lower the shooting percentage and keep this one under the number.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 9-4 in their last 13 games following a SU loss, 11-5 in their  last 16 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6

Bottom Line: The Spurs were able to take advantage of Ibaka being out in Game 1, but I expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments.  OKC went small in Game 1, but it will do so in shorter stretches tonight.  I expect Nick Collison and Steven Adams to be very active on the defensive end and on the glass.  Playing them together will allow the Thunder to match up better at the defensive end. We can't forget that the Thunder are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13.  The Thunder are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -138

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Heat will bounce back, and while I fully expect them to cover the 2.5 points, I'm protecting my investment by taking them on the money line at what I consider to be a pretty nice price.  Every point counts, especially this time of year.  The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  They are also 26-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent.  The Pacers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS off an upset win as a home dog under coach Vogel, and it has lost by an average of 8.8 points in this spot.  When the line is +3 to -3, playing against road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game has resulted in a 37-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  This system tightens up to 24-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS this season.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: Neither team played much defense in Game 1, as evidenced by each squad shooting 51+% from the floor.  I expect a huge commitment on the defensive end from both teams here.  That's been the norm in this matchup as we saw combined scores of 184, 167, 191, 174, 175, 168 and 169 in the 7 meetings prior to Game 1.  The Pacers are 18-7 UNDER this season in home games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points.  Just 181.6 points were scored on average in these games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games with these wins coming by 23, 24, 17 and 22 points.  They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a cover.  San Antonio is 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.  It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points.  The Spurs lost all 4 regular-season meetings, but Ibaka was a huge part of OKCs success in those games, especially on the defensive end.  Without Ibaka patrolling the paint, Parker and San Antonio's slashers will have a much easier time getting to the rim.  Additionally, getting swept will only add to San Antonio's level of focus in Game 1.  The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued at home because they have looked vulnerable at times in the past two rounds.  However, we can't forget that basketball is all about matchups, and Indiana has given the Heat big problems with its size and toughness.  The Pacers looked complacent at times down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two rounds, but you can bet they won't in this series.  They knew all along the road to a championship goes through Miami, and they'll be highly focused and motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Heat the past two seasons.  I'll gladly take the points considering how dominant the home team has been in this matchup.  The home side is on a perfect 8-0 run, and Indiana's home wins during this span have come by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers OVER 212.5

Bottom Line: After back-to-back unders the last 2 games, the value has shifted back to the over, especially since we are getting the lowest total line of the series.  The OVER is 6-1 in the Clippers' last 7 games following a loss and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games following a win.  The OVER is 7-1 in LAs last 8 home games and 19-3 in its last 22 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less.  OKC is 16-6 OVER in road games following a home game this season.  Bet the OVER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: Washington can't trusted laying this many points at home against an Indiana squad that will be highly motivated after laying an egg in Game 5.  The Wizards are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite this season and 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards have won by only 0.4 points on average in these 39 instances.  The Pacers are 19-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and have won these by an average of 0.9 points.  The Pacers have quietly won 4 in a row SU and ATS on the road, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat UNDER 189

Bottom Line: I fully expect to see a half-court, grind-it-out defensive battle in Game 5.  The Nets lost Game 4 as they allowed Miami to shoot 52.9% from the field, and they know they must tighten the screws if they are going to live to see another day.  I expect a very gritty performance from them.  I also expect to see Miami's killer instinct kick in.  The Heat want to end the series tonight so they can have a rest advantage against their Conference Finals foe.  They have held Brooklyn below 44% shooting 2 of the last 3 games, and they'll be dialed in defensively with a chance to punch their Conference Finals ticket.  These teams have finished UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 meetings in Miami while combining for an average of 184 total points in these matchups so we are getting a great number here.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Clippers +5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers carry a lot of momentum into Game 5 after rallying back from a 22-point deficit in Game 4 to even the series.  Despite winning the game, the Clippers failed to cover the spread, and the road team is now 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with 4 of the wins coming outright.  The Clippers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road matchups with the Thunder and 12-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  In a game involving teams with winning percentages of 60-75%, playing against teams like OKC that are off a cover in a game they lost straight up has resulted in a 77-40 ATS record the last 18 seasons.  Grab the points in a game that should go right down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 181

Bottom Line: When the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points, plays UNDER on home teams with a winning percentage of 60-75% that are off 2 or more consecutive road wins has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 18 seasons.  We've seen just 179.4 total points scored in these games on average.  Indiana is 28-19 UNDER at home this season, including 17-6 UNDER at home when the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points.  Washington is 28-15 UNDER the last 3 seasons in road games when playing with double revenge.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Indiana.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Blazers +4

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that are leading in a playoffs series has resulted in a 36-12 ATS record since 1996, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or greater and are playing a team with a win percentage of 60% to 75%).  This system tightens up to 5-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are still 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Portland, and they are laying too many points here against a team that will be playing desperate.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 211

Bottom Line: Each of the first 3 games of this series have gone over the totals, and the Spurs have finished over the number in 6 straight going back to their first round series.  We are getting an excellent number here as a result, especially since the first 2 games of this series were below and at this number.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 3 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 73-33 record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on any team that has given up 110 points or more in 3 consecutive games and is coming off a game with a combined score of 205 points or more has resulted in a 35-15 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a win of 15 points or more and are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, the Spurs are 17-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards OVER 180

Bottom Line: The Wizards are 24-10 OVER the last 18 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more.  We have seen an average of 202 total points scored in these games.  Washington is also 18-6 OVER after 2 straight games where both it and its opponent scored 90 points or less the last 18 seasons.  We've seen 196.8 total points scored on average in these contests.  Indiana is 21-8 OVER in road games off a road win under coach Vogel, and we've seen an average of 195 total points in these games. The Wizards let the Pacers dictate a slow pace the last 2 games, and it cost them.  Washington had a lot of success pushing the ball against the Bulls in its opening series, and it will look to do that here because it knows without a doubt that doing so gives it the best chance to win.  An increased tempo greatly favors the OVER. Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards -4.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 92-98 ppg and have held their opponent to 90 points or less in 2 straight games has resulted in a 43-12 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  This system tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Vogel.  It has lost these contests by an average of 12.6 points.  The Wizards are 29-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent.  Pound the Wizards.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers UNDER 215.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers fit into a totals system that has been hitting at a high rate for years.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on teams playing with double revenge has resulted in a 42-17 record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off an upset victory.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Clippers -4.5

Bottom Line: We'll lay the points with the Clippers at home in this bounce-back spot behind some compelling evidence.  The Clippers are 16-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 13.0 points in these games.  The Clipps are also 14-2 ATS this season following an upset defeat and have won these contests by an average of 12.9 points.  Lastly, LA is 12-3 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  It has won by an average of 14.2 points in this spot.  Pound LA.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Blazers +1.5

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing home teams that are playing with triple revenge has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Blazers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games versus the Spurs, and they are an impressive 51-31 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less the last 18 seasons.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 209.5

Bottom Line: When the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series, playing the UNDER has resulted in a 68-32 record the last 18 seasons.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams off a win of 15 points or more that are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-11 record the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season.  They are also 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Nets +1.5

Bottom Line: The Nets are down 0-2, but they aren't about to go down without a fight.  I fully expect this experienced group to bounce back at home in Game 3.  The Nets are 18-3 at home since February.  Plus, they are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these games by an average of 8.5 points.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and have won these contests by an average of 12.2 points.  Pound Brooklyn.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the superior defensive team.  The Pacers have held the opposition to 41.7% shooting or worse in 6 of their last 8 games.  Washington has held its opponents below the 41.7% mark just 2 times in its last 10 games.  Indiana gets in trouble when it gets too reliant on the 3-point shot.  It has diagnosed itself.  It only attempted 12 3's in Game 2 and made an extra-effort to go inside.  It paid off, and I expect the Pacers to stick with the same game plan.  The underdog has now covered each of the past 3 meetings and 5 of the last 7, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Blazers +7

Bottom Line: Road teams that score an average of 103 points per game or more on the season are 39-12 ATS the last 18 seasons if they trailed by 20 points or more at halftime of their last game.  This system tightens up to 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.  Even with the Game 1 loss, the Blazers have still won 4 of the last 7 meetings.  And, they have lost by more than 7 points just twice in the last 8 meetings with the Spurs.  Pound Portland.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Nets +8

Bottom Line: The Nets ran into a buzz saw in Game 1 as they were still emotionally and physically drained from their opening series.  This veteran Nets squad is playoff-tested, and it will be motivated by the poor performance in Game 1, and it won't be lacking any confidence having won each of the 4 regular season battles.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a loss or more than 10 points.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: 193 total points were scored in Game 1 as these two teams inched over the total, which was set at 192.  But, the pace favored the under.  Miami shot well above normal (56.8%), and the Nets also shot above their season average (47.1%).  Plus, the teams combined for 19 3-point makes.  The Nets average only 8 3-point makes per game on the road, and Miami averages 8 per game at home.  Look for the defensive intensity to pick up in Game 2, and the shots not to fall as easily.  Brooklyn is 19-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.  An average of only 188.1 points have been scored in these games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Miami.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 215

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, after a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against an opponent after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, has resulted in a 35-11 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210, a team out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more and up against an opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more, has resulted in a 29-7 record since 1996.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Thunder -5.5

Bottom Line: The Thunder have been an awesome investment when out for revenge for an upset defeat under coach Brooks, going 54-33 ATS in this spot.  In this spot at home the last 2 seasons, they are 17-7 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.9 points.  Teams headed up by coach Rivers are a dismal 36-59 ATS all-time following a road win of 10 points or more.  The Thunder, meanwhile, are 44-26 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more.  Pound OKC.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -4.5

Bottom Line: Even though the Pacers lost Game 1 of this series, I'm not going to jump ship when they're on their home floor.  The home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, and the Pacers are 12-1 in the last 13 home meetings.  In terms of the spread, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Pacers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  The Pacers were outrebounded 65-46, and I don't see that happening again.  They had won the rebounding battle in each of the previous 7 matchups.  Bet the Pacers.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The UNDER is 29-11 in Indiana's games this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, including 16-6 at home.  The Pacers are 12-3 UNDER this season at home when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points, and we have seen just 179.0 total points scored on average in these 15 contests.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7

Bottom Line: Despite losing each of the 4 regular-season meetings with Brooklyn, Miami is laying quite a few points.  That's because Miami will be extremely fresh following a week off and highly focused as it looks to make a statement to Brooklyn that the playoffs are a different animal.  This line is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent are 54-27 ATS the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that is off an upset win over a division foe.  Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 2 consecutive wins against a division foe are 39-16 ATS the last 5 seasons.  After a grueling 7-game series, the Nets will run out of gas in the second half.  Pound Miami.

4* Major GM1 "Total" BAILOUT on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 213

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on all teams that are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-12 record the last 5 seasons if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60-75%.  We've seen an average line of 209.6 in these contests but only 199.6 total points scored on average.  We saw just 208 total points scored the last time these teams met so this line is being influenced by the recent scoring outputs of each team.  But consider that OKC is 12-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons after scoring 120 points or more and the Clippers are 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers -4

Bottom Line: Home court has been huge when these teams get together.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 8 points.  Home court has especially been huge for the Pacers when facing the Wizards.  Indiana is 12-0 in its last 12 at home versus Washington with all 12 wins coming by at least 4 points.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198

Bottom Line: Not much defense was played in Game 6 as both teams shot over 50% from the field.  That will change here.  In Game 1, when both teams were trying to establish themselves in the series, neither shot better than 43.2% and only 175 total points were scored.  I expect buckets to be tough to come by in this one as well with a place in the 2nd round at stake.  Playing the UNDER on road teams that are off an upset win over a division rival, provided they are a winning team playing another winning team and the total line is 190-199.5, has resulted in a 31-9 record since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -6

Bottom Line: Look for San Antonio to take care of business at home in Game 7.  The Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Mavs with the wins coming by an average of 14.3 points.  The Spurs are 23-12 ATS off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.0 points in this spot.  They are also 64-46 ATS in home playoff games under coach Popovich, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8

Bottom Line: I believe odds makers aren't giving enough respect to a Memphis team that held Oklahoma City to 39.8% shooting or worse in Games 2-5.  Each of those 4 games went to OT, and I'm expecting another tight game with a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 8 points in 12 of its last 16 versus the Thunder.  The Grizz are 14-6 ATS following a loss, 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at OKC.  The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-3-1 in their last 4 in this series.  Pound Memphis.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -4.5

Bottom Line: At home, where they have won 17 of their last 20 (17 wins came by 10.9 points on average), I expect the Nets to extend this series.  The Nets are an impressive 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams that have a winning record.  Additionally, they have thrived in highly motivated spots such as this one.  When at home and out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent, they are 9-1 ATS this season with an average margin of victory of 8.0 points.  This is the type of game where having experienced winners like Paul Piece and Kevin Garnett really pays off. Bet the Nets.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

Bottom Line: Following their worst defensive performance of the series and staring elimination in the face, the Nets will put the clamps on defensively tonight.  The Nets needed to speed up the pace in Game 5 and look for three-point opportunities because these faced a huge deficit.  These two teams combined for 69 points from beyond the arc in the game.  They hadn't combined for more than 42 points from three in any of the other games of the series.  Both prior games played in Brooklyn in the series were played at a very slow pace, and we saw just 166 total points scored in Game 4.  We saw 200 total points scored in Game 3 despite the slow pace, but neither team was getting after it defensively the way they will in this elimination game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Nets' last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 10-1 UNDER after a close win of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen only 187.3 total points scored on average in these 11 games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +1.5

Bottom Line: Home court has been too big to ignore when these teams get together.  The home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with the 10 wins coming by an average of 17 points.  Golden State is 16-3 in its last 19 home games versus the Clippers, including 6-1 in its last 7.  Combine the 10-2 series home trend and the 16-3 Warriors home trend, and we have a convincing 26-5 trend in our favor.  Additionally, Golden State is 30-15 ATS under coach Mark Jackson after a loss of 10 points or more, including 8-1 ATS in this spot this season with an average winning margin of 15.9 points.  Pound the Warriors.

4* Major GM6 *SUREFIRE* on Thunder -2.5

Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.  The Thunder are 14-3 ATS the last 3 seasons after a close loss of 3 points or less, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.9 points.  Road favorites that are off a home loss and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 122-75 ATS since 1996.  I expect the Thunder to dig down deep to force a Game 7.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 187

Bottom Line: After allowing Atlanta to shoot 50% in Game 5 and with their playoff lives on the line, I expect the Pacers to bring the "D".  The Pacers are 27-10 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.  They are 56-28 UNDER when out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more since 1996. The Hawks are 31-10 UNDER in home playoff games since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Hawks' last 6 home games and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Atlanta.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Rockets -5

Bottom Line: Despite losing the 1st 2 games of the series at home, Houston is still 19-5 in its last 24 on this floor versus the Blazers.  That's too much history to go against, especially in a game where the Rockets will be playing for their playoff lives.  The Blazers have been a poor investment in the postseason, especially when on the road following a win (they are on a 9-21-2 ATS slide in that spot).  They are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 postseason games overall.  Bet the Rockets.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 214

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 on all teams that have allowed 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are taking on an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 40-15 record the last 5 seasons if the opponent is off a home win of 3 points or less.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on road teams that are off a home win of 3 points or less and are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days has resulted in a 25-7 record the last 5 seasons.  Game 4 should have finished under the total as only 212 total points were scored prior to OT.  Even with OT, these teams combined for only 175 shots so the pace slowed considerably since Game 3 when they combined for 195 shots.  Pound the UNDER as I expect the defensive intensity to pick up in this elimination game.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers have been dealing with some off-court issues surrounding the team owner.  However, Sunday's 21-point defeat assures us they will be extremely focused and motivated tonight.  The Clippers are an impressive 19-7 ATS following a loss this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.8 points in these contests.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games directly following a defeat of more than 10 points.  They are also 13-2 ATS on the season following an upset loss and have responded to win by an average of 13.1 points in this spot.  Teams out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more that are off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 38-13 ATS the last 18 seasons.  Pound LA.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 184

Bottom Line: These two teams have finished over the total in each of the previous four games of the series, and the UNDER is showing some serious value as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 2 or more consecutive overs that is playing against an opponent that checks in off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 66-31 record the last 5 seasons.  The Bulls are 31-19 UNDER when the total is 180-189.5 this season, including 18-7 at home when this is the case.  An average of 179.5 total points were scored in these 25 home games so I'm not hesitating to take the UNDER here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Spurs/Mavs UNDER 203

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams (Dallas in this case) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 has resulted in a 76-33 record the last 5 seasons if they have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team that has a winning record.  If the team you're playing the UNDER on in the previous situation is at home and the total is between 200-209.5, this system tightens up to 35-12.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on all teams that have lost 4 of their last 5 games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are a winning team playing another winning team.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (San Antonio) that are out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent that is off a close home win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 43-20 record the last 5 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pacers -6.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers have really tightened the screws defensively, and that bodes extremely well for us as the series shifts back to Indy.  The Pacers are 9-1 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games of holding foes to 39% shooting or worse.  It has won by an average of 16.8 points in this spot.  The Pacers won 101-85 in their last home game in the series despite Atlanta draining 10 3-pointers, and I expect another double-digit win from the top seed in the East.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Bobcats +7.5

Bottom Line: The Heat will be looking to close out Charlotte tonight, but the Bobcats won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to give Miami all it wants and to keep this one within the generous number.  The Heat are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games while the Bobcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

4* Major NBA "Total" BAILOUT on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 215

Bottom Line: If the total line is greater than or equal to 210, Playing the UNDER on all teams, Houston in this case, that have allowed 110 points or more in 3 straight games and are up against an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game has resulted in a 31-11 record the last 5 seasons.  We've seen just 207.7 total points scored on average in this situation.

5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: I'm pounding the UNDER here as these teams fit into an extremely profitable postseason totals system.  When the total is between 190 and 199.5, playing the UNDER on all teams in the 4th game of a 1st round NBA playoff series has resulted in a 44-14 record since 1996.  We have seen only 185.9 total points scored on average in these games.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Warriors +2

Bottom Line: Look for Golden State to even the series this afternoon.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage of 60-70% the last 2 seasons, and they have defeated these teams by 9.5 points on average.  Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams off a home loss in a game involving teams with win percentages of 60-70% are 46-19 ATS since 1996.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Golden State.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 183.5

Bottom Line: The first 3 games of this series have easily gone over but that changes here.  This game means a lot for both teams and the defensive intensity will kick up a notch as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team, Chicago in this case, after 2 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent that is off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 42-15 record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -3

Bottom Line: I'll back the Thunder in this highly motivated spot.  After losing 2 straight to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Thunder will be out for blood tonight.  Since coach Brooks took over, OKC is 54-32 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 47-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, 50-32 ATS when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent and 53-33 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.

5* Wiseguy Saturday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs -3.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs will come storming back following a poor performance in Game 2.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS this season in road games following an upset loss.  They have won these games by 12.0 points on average.  The Spurs are also 7-0 ATS this season in road games versus teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60%.  They have won these games by an average of 13.2 points.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points,  0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 in Dallas, winning these by an average of 12.3 points.  And, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Pound San Antonio.

4* Major GM4 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -2

Bottom Line: The Pacers responded following a loss in Game 1, and I expect a similar response this afternoon.  The Hawks are just 15-30 ATS in home games following 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 7-18 ATS in home games off a home win the last 2 seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off 1 or more consecutive losses the last 2 seasons and 30-17 ATS off a road loss the last 2 seasons.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Rockets +3

Bottom Line: Houston won't go quietly into the night.  It has won or lost by fewer than 3 points in 6 of its last 7 visits to Portland, and I expect this trend to continue.  The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS in these 7 visits, and the road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Additionally, Portland is 0-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog under coach Terry Stotts.  It has lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls +3

Bottom Line: The Bulls have the heart of a champion, and they aren't about to fold down 0-2.  Chicago is a reliable 25-16 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss.  It is also an impressive 117-81 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge since 1996.  Furthermore, the Bulls are 37-22 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less under Tom Thibodeau.  Washington is on an 11-25 ATS slide off 2 or more consecutive road wins.  Teams headed up by Randy Witman are just 46-72 ATS as a home favorite, including 27-51 ATS as a home fave of 6.0 points or more.  His teams are also just 5-16 ATS in home games following a close win of 3 points or less.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +2

Bottom Line: The home team has dominated this matchup going 10-3 in the last 13.  The Clippers suffered each of the 3 home losses during this streak.  The Warriors are 5-0 at home during this streak with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Golden State was brutally embarrassed in Game 2 and will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder tonight as a result.  The Warriors are 29-15 ATS after a loss of more than 10 points under coach Jackson, including 12-2 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss of more than 10 points.  Pound Golden State.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR Clippers/Warriors UNDER 215

Bottom Line: First off, playing the UNDER on any team off 2 or more consecutive overs that is matched up against an opponent off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 40-14 (74%) record the last 3 seasons.  Secondly, playing the UNDER on all teams in the 3rd game of a 1st round playoff series has resulted in a 40-12 (77%) record since 1996, provided the total is 200.0 or higher.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a victory of 15 points or more and are going against a team off a defeat of 15 points or more has resulted in a 34-10 (77%) record the last 5 seasons, provided the total is 200.0 or higher.  With Golden State looking to bounce back from a terrible Game 2 and L.A. looking to regain home-court, I expect the screws to tighten defensively in Game 3.  This one stays UNDER as a result.

4* Major NBA "Total" LINE MISTAKE on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 189

Bottom Line: OKC doesn't get enough credit for what it is capable of doing defensively.  The Thunder rank No. 3 in field goal percentage defense, and I expect to see a strong defensive effort from them tonight after allowing Memphis to shoot nearly 50% in Game 2.  The Thunder are 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 games following a loss, 9-3 UNDER in their last 12 games after giving up 100 points or more, 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 1st round playoff games and 29-10 UNDER in their last 39 games on 2 days' rest.  The Grizzlies will look to slow down the pace, knowing its chances of winning suffer greatly when they let OKC get out in transition.  With OKC turning up the heat defensively and Memphis looking to play in the half court, we have ourselves a solid UNDERS situation.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* Bailout on Rockets -6

Bottom Line: Look for the Rockets to come storming back in Game 2.  A lot went right for Portland to win Game 1 (Harden shot 8 for 28 while Aldridge shot 17 for 31), but it still needed OT to get the job done.  Despite the loss, Houston is laying as much as 1-point more (depending on the book) than it did in Game 1.  This tells me oddsmakers expect to see a much different Houston squad here.  Aldridge won't play as well as he did in Game 1, and Harden won't shoot as badly.  I'm very confident the Rockets won't shoot as poorly collectively (only 41% in Game 1) because the Blazers allow 45% shooting on the season.  Houston has quietly had a good season defensively, especially at home where it is allowing just 42.9% shooting.  In the second half of the season, playing against underdogs that are off 2 or more consecutive overs in a game involving two teams that allow 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1996.  Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average and have lost by an average of 10.3.  Pound Houston.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference 1st Round Game of the Year on Bulls -5

Bottom Line: The defense wasn't there for Chicago in Game 1 as it allowed the Wizards to score 102 points on 48.6% shooting.  Recent history tells us the defense will be there for the Bulls tonight.  Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after giving up 100 points or more in its previous game.  The last 7 of these covers were also straight up wins by an average of 12.9 points.  Pound the Bulls as they tighten the screws defensively and bounce back strong.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -7.5

Bottom Line: Playing favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 52-22 ATS record since 1996 if they have combined with their opponents to score 205 points or more in 4 straight games and are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  If the contest takes place 42 games or later into the season, this system explodes to 35-10 ATS.  Since Doc Rivers came to town the Clippers are an impressive 18-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses, and they have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation.  They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivers when out for revenge for an upset defeat and have won in this situation by an average of 11.3 points.  Pound the Clippers.

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Grizzlies +7

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the Grizz in this bounce-back situation.  OKC couldn't have gotten off to a better start in Game 1, and Memphis couldn't have gotten off to a worse start.  Despite trailing by 25 points just before the half, Memphis cut the deficit to four points and won the 2nd half by 8 points.  That does a ton for its confidence heading into this one.   I expect to see the defensive effort we saw from Memphis in the 3rd quarter from the jump tonight.  The Grizzlies are on a 41-23 ATS run in road games when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent that scored 100 points or more both times.  The Thunder are 9-21 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of 60-70%.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 8 of their last 11 meetings. 

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers +5.5

Bottom Line: Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing 4 games or less in 10 days and are off at least 2 consecutive home wins are 53-28 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Portland has quietly been a terrific road investment all season, going 25-16 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in its last 4.  The Rockets won the season series 3-1, but Portland took them to OT in Houston the last time these two met.  The Blazers are 20-9 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more.  The Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record, and the underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Pound Portland, which enters the playoffs in better form.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -7

Bottom Line: I expect to see a very hungry OKC squad tonight.  Memphis sent the Thunder home early in last year's playoffs and that series loss will be all the fuel the Thunder need.  The Grizzlies didn't have to deal with Westbrook in last year's series, but they will tonight, and they weren't able to handle him defensively while losing the 2 games he played against them this season.  The Grizz don't do a very good job of getting to the charity, and that's an issue because OKC does.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS this season versus teams like Memphis that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game.  They have defeated such teams by an average of 12.2 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -7.5

Bottom Line: Defense wins in the NBA Playoffs, and Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA.  It has allowed just 88 ppg at home this season while the Hawks have allowed 104.4 ppg on the road.  The Pacers held the Hawks to 90.3 points while averaging 108.7 in 3 home wins in last season's playoff series.  Indiana might have entered the playoffs overconfident, but it struggled down the stretch of the regular season and lost badly on this floor to the Hawks just under 2 weeks ago.  The Pacers will be highly motivation to crush the Hawks and any upset aspirations in Game 1 as a result.  The favorite is 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Clippers -7

Bottom Line: The Clippers were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round last year after winning the first 2 games of their series with Memphis.  The harsh memory of that crushing series loss is all the motivation they'll need when they hit the floor this afternoon.  Home court has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with an average margin of victory of 14.1 points.  The Clippers home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 16.7 points.  In games played 42 games or more into the season, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more and have combined with their opponents for 205 points or more in their last 4 games are 35-9 ATS since 1996 if they are matched up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have won by 12.5.

4* Major NBA “Total” Dominator on Nuggets/Clippers OVER 219

Bottom Line: Playing the OVER when the total is 210 or higher on teams that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more has resulted in a 32-19 record the last 5 seasons if they are up against a team that has scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games.  The Clippers do an excellent job of getting to the foul line and make their free throws at a nice clip (72.9%).  This is important to note because Denver is 15-3 OVER the last 2 seasons versus team that attempt 27 free throws per game or more.  We’ve seen 225.6 total points scored on average in these games.  Both teams are well rested, and the Clippers are especially well rested because they’ve been at home since April 3.  This is also important because the Clippers are 8-0 OVER in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen an average of 223 total points scored in these games.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -2.5
Bottom Line: I expect the Suns to stay in the playoff hunt with a win over the Grizzlies tonight. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 65-32 ATS since 1996 if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. This system is a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. The Suns are 7-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 2.5 points or less, including 3-0 ATS in the role at home. The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Pound the Suns.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -1
Bottom Line: I'll lay this small number with a motivated Indiana squad that is 34-6 at home. The Pacers are still in the running for home court in the East while the Thunder have already secured the two-seed in the West and can't catch San Antonio. Additionally, OKC pounded the Pacers back in December so this game will be about payback. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are also 8-20 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons against teams with a win percentage of 60-70%. Indiana is 22-11 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses. The Pacers have won by an average of 10.3 points in this spot. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Cavs -8
Bottom Line: Cleveland will be out to wash the sour taste of last night's loss in Milwaukee out of its mouth. It will also be out to make sure it doesn't get swept by Boston. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off an upset loss and playing a 3rd game in 4 days are 67-40 ATS the last 5 seasons. Boston has been awful on the road where it is 8-31 on the season and has lost 13 straight. It's even 12-24 ATS in road games against teams with losing records over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +4.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for the Bobcats, who are coming off a very satisfying overtime win against Washington that moved them into a tie with the Wizards for 6th in the East and gave them the tiebreaker over the Wizards. Even though Boston won the last meeting between these teams, that was clear back in November, and this fatigued Bobcats squad will be looking to coast tonight. Charlotte has seen 4 of its last 7 games go to overtime, including its last 2. Boston isn't rolling over. It blew a 9-point lead with 5:44 remaining in Wednesday's 105-97 defeat to Atlanta and was outscored 30-16 over the last 12 minutes in its previous defeat, 115-111 to Detroit on Saturday. Those losses are not sitting well, and the Celtics will be motivated not to lose a 10th straight. I believe Rondo will be the key as he has given Kemba Walker fits in 4 previous head-to-head meetings. The Celtics won all 4. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 are 68-37 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team that has covered 6 or 7 of their last 8. This system is 26-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound Boston.

5* Wiseguy *BEST BET* Bailout on Warriors -10.5
Bottom Line: Denver spent itself in last night's win over Houston, and it won't have enough left in the tank to keep the score respectable versus a Golden State team that has had the last 3 days off. The Warriors also have a big motivational edge as they were defeated 123-116 at home the last time they faced Denver. They'll be out to avenge that loss as well as take a big step toward locking up the No. 6 seed. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Golden State. Pound the Warriors.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Spurs +2
Bottom Line: Likely no Parker or Ginobli tonight, but I don't believe it will matter. The Spurs are much more than the Big 3 these days, and they'll be hungry following a bad showing in Minnesota. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Mavs handed Utah a 12-point defeat last time out, but they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are also 3-11 ATS in their last 14 versus the Spurs, including 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home meetings in the series. Playing against home teams that are playing with double revenge has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against a team that is off an upset loss on the road.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Magic +5.5
Bottom Line: The Magic have an excellent chance to knock off a Nets squad that is in a letdown situation following last night's big win over the Heat. Orlando has a better home record that Brooklyn has on the road, and the Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are also 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season, winning these games by an average of 4.8 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards -5
Bottom Line: The Wizards blew a 16-point halftime lead in their recent 100-94 loss at Charlotte, and they'll be out for some serious revenge as a result. The Wizards are 48-26 ATS under coach Wittman when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, including 19-5 ATS in this situation this season. Pound the Wizards as they have their revenge in impressive fashion.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Heat -7
Bottom Line: Miami has lost all 3 prior meetings with the Nets this season and will be out for blood tonight as a result. Home teams that are out for revenge for at least 2 consecutive upset losses to an opponent are 18-4 ATS the last 3 seasons if they are also off a home win. Additionally, the Nets haven't been the same team on the road where they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7
Bottom Line: In a game taking place at least 42 games into the season, playing against home favorites that led their previous game by 20 points or more at the half has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record since 1996 if the game involves teams that average 98-102 ppg. Additionally, road teams that give up 103 ppg or more and trailed by 10 points or more at the half in their last 2 games are 86-34 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 11-0 ATS this season. The Hawks are being overvalued following their big win in Indiana. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy Championship *BEST BET* on Connecticut +3
Bottom Line: Connecticut continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers despite 4 consecutive outright wins as an underdog. The Huskies have been doing it with defense, holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 39.1% shooting or worse. Kentucky hasn't shown the same commitment to the defensive end as it has allowed 49.4% shooting over its last 4 games. I'll gladly take the better defensive team catching points, especially since that team has the best player on the floor in Napier. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games, including 5-0 ATS this season. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 16-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Huskies.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is being overvalued in this one because it has won its last 4 on the road. Its last 2 wins over the Kings have come by just 4 and 3 points. The Kings will be looking to avoid the season sweep as well as save face following an embarrassing 102-69 loss at Golden State. The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Kings are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Sacramento.

4* Major Final Four *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky -1
Bottom Line: Kentucky has the more talented team, and John Calipari is pushing all the right buttons as he so often does in the NCAA Tournament. Final Four appearances are nothing new to coach Cal, but this is the first for Bo Ryan. The Wildcats are less experienced in terms of years played at the collegiate level, but they have plenty experience on the bench with a coach that has shown, recently, that he can win it all with a bunch of freshman. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus Big Ten foes. Coach Cal is 14-4 ATS in the Big Dance at Kentucky, including 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. His teams are 9-0 ATS since 1997 after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, winning these games by an average of 10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Cavs -3
Bottom Line: We rode the following system I'm about to unveil to a big win on the Rockets last night, and I'm going to ride it again here. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge are 69-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. This system is 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is still in the playoff hunt, and I expect maximum effort from it tonight after a humiliating performance in Atlanta last night. Additionally, they will be out to make sure they aren't swept by Charlotte. Cleveland has won 14 of its last 16 at home against the Bobcats. Pound the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -6
Bottom Line: UConn handed Florida one of its 2 losses this season, but that game was played at UConn and a closer look at the numbers shows that the Huskies shouldn't have come out on top. I fully expect the Gators to have their revenge in this neutral floor battle. UConn needed a 17-foot jumper from Shabazz Napier as time expired to beat Florida despite shooting 45.8% (11 of 24) from 3-point range and holding a plus-24 advantage from 3. That's because Florida outshot the Huskies 49% to 43.4% for the game and outrebounded them 34-26. If Florida can do a better job of defending the 3-point line, it should walk away with a comfortable win, and I'm confident it will. Florida has won 30 straight since losing to UConn, and it has won 9 of its last 10 by 7 points or more, including each of its 4 NCAA tourney games by double digits. Pound Florida.