Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major on Heat -6.5
Bottom Line: Expect the Heat to get revenge for their Jan. 22 home loss to Milwaukee. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge against a team that is coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 47-20 ATS since 1996. Teams in this situation are winning by an average of 8.7 points. You might also like to know that this system has produced a 7-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Thunder +1.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder were not at all happy about the way they played Monday, calling it their worst performance of the season. As if that isn't enough motivation, the Thunder will draw more incentive from a 100-87 loss at Dallas on Jan. 2. OKC is 8-0 ATS in road games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent since the beginning of last season. It has won these games by an average of 5.4 points.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Bobcats +13
Bottom Line: The Lakers, who have a huge public following, are annually one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. They are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 14-37 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. The Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. The underdog is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Also, the Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Lakers at Staples Center.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +1
Bottom Line: I fully expect Memphis to bring its 4-game skid to an end tonight at home, where it is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games and 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Memphis.

4* Major on Nets +9.5
Bottom Line: The road team has dominated this series to the tune of 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue. The Nets have really been undervalued following any loss and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a defeat as a result. It's been the opposite for the Pacers, who are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a victory.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Timberwolves +7
Bottom Line: The T-Wolves are a more talented team than the Rockets now that Michael Beasley is back in the lineup, and they'll be very hungry tonight after a poor performance against Houston a week ago. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

4* Major on Hornets +13
Bottom Line: The Hornets catch Miami at a good time as it is coming off an emotionally and physically draining win over the Bulls. Plus, the Hornets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater while the Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater.

4* Major on Magic +7
Bottom Line: After getting embarrassed in their last 2 games, I like the Magic to show up and give the 76ers a game tonight. The Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Bulls +4.5
Bottom Line: I won't hesitate to side with Chicago here considering underdogs that has won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%), are 95-48 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.8 points on average but have lost by just 1.4 points on average. The Bulls, who are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less, have had this one circled ever since getting knocked out of the playoffs by Miami last season. That series loss will be the motivation behind a strong effort this afternoon. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC -12.5
Bottom Line: By making USC, who has lost 9 in a row, a double-digit fave, odds makers clearly want the money coming in on Utah. Here's why. The Utes are 0-10 when playing away from home this season, losing these games by an average of 25.0 points. The Utes have lost their 7 true road games by 21, 30, 29, 40, 3 and 27 points for an average losing margin of 26.6. The Utes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and USC is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games 15 or more games into the season versus poor teams that are outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game. It's beating these teams by an average of 21.2 points. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Suns +4
Bottom Line: The value lies with Phoenix considering plays on underdogs - cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 and tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days - have produced a 44-13 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have only lost by an average of 1.3 points. It's already been a long road trip for Memphis, which has lost 2 in a row, and the Suns will relish the opportunity to bounce back from last night's embarrassing loss.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +7
Bottom Line: We played on the Knicks +11.5 for a cover last night and we'll stick with them here as they continue to be undervalued in the absence of Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks are an awesome 27-10 ATS as a road underdog dating back to the beginning of last season. They are also 15-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days under coach D'Antoni. Pound the Knicks.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Warriors +4.5
Bottom Line: Golden State has given the Thunder problems because of its athleticism and ability to knock down the three-point shot. Golden State has won its last 2 at home against OKC, and it's last 2 losses in the series have come by just 5 points and 1 point. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in those 4 meetings. Plus, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Warriors.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Knicks +11.5
Bottom Line: No Carmelo Anthony for the Knicks tonight, but I like them to be really focused and hungry against arguably the best team in the NBA. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. This shows you how overvalued Miami has been against lesser opponents. The fact New York has played consecutive games on the road and the fact this will be its 3rd road game in 4 days bodes extremely well for us. The Knicks are 9-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games since the start of last season and 14-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days since the start of the 2008-09 season. Take the Knicks.

5* Wiseguy NBA Bailout Game of the Month on Clippers -3.5
Bottom Line: I like the Clipps at home, where they are 8-2, laying a small number against a Memphis squad that has been inconsistent on the road. The Grizzlies are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Magic -9
Bottom Line: The Magic will be out for blood tonight after the hurt the Celtics put on them earlier in the week. The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Also, the home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the points as Orlando has its revenge.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Lakers -3.5
Bottom Line: Hungry to get back in the win column following 3 straight defeats and out to avenge an earlier loss to the Clippers, expect the Lakers to take care of business tonight. The team designated as the home team is on a 7-1 ATS run this series. Plus, the Lakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Warriors -3
Bottom Line: This is a terrible spot for Portland, which will be playing its third game in as many nights on the road, where it is 3-6 SU and ATS this season. The Warriors are 11-1 SU and ATS in their last 11 home games versus Portland, winning those games by an average of 11.3 points. All 11 wins have come by 5 points or more.

4* Major NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Kings +6
Bottom Line: The Kings are 4-3 at home this season where they have quality wins over the Lakers and Pacers. Plus, they've won an incredible 24 of their last 28 at home against the Nuggets. The home team is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. We'll take the points.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Blazers -5
Bottom Line: Portland is one of the best home teams in the NBA. Plus, this is a tough spot for Memphis after using so much energy to erase a 20-point deficit in last night's win. Portland will be the much fresher side. The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Trail Blazers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic +3.5
Bottom Line: Extremely motivated by last night's embarrassing loss, expect the Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. Orlando has won the last 5 in this series by an average of 13.6 points. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Warriors -1.5
Bottom Line: Expect fatigue to be a major issue for Memphis tonight. Playing against underdogs (MEMPHIS) off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced an 80-41 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are losing by an average of 9.4 points. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. Also, the Warriors are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home versus Memphis the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.7 points.

4* Major on Timberwolves -2.5
Bottom Line: Minnesota is a better team than its 7-9 record might lead you to believe. The T-Wolves have endured 5 losses by 4 points or fewer and those losses came to Oklahoma City, Miami, Memphis, Atlanta and Milwaukee. The favorite is an impressive 14-2-1 ATS in the last 17 in this series. Plus, the Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Take Minnesota.

4* Major NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cincinnati +5.5
Bottom Line: The Orange have only had 1 day to recover emotionally and physically from their first loss of the season. Now, doubt has momentarily set in and Syracuse will no longer be playing with unwavering confidence. Plus, the Orange won't have the services of Fab Melo again tonight. The Orange are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less while the Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.

5* Wiseguy Big East Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -2.5
Bottom Line: Pitt will receive a huge lift emotionally and physically with the return of Travon Woodall. Louisville, meanwhile, will continue to struggle without leading scorer Kyle Kuric. Pitt has played Marquette and Syracuse tough on the road in its last 2 games, and now it returns home to catch a banged-up Louisville squad at the perfect time. Lay the points as Pitt records its long-overdue first Big East win in impressive fashion.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Kings +9.5
Bottom Line: The Kings have knocked off the Pacers and the Spurs in their last 2 games, and don't be surprised if they add Memphis to the list tonight. This is too many points for Sacramento to be getting in this revenge spot, considering it is 27-14 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss over the last 2 seasons. The Kings are only losing by 2.8 points on average in these contests. This one will be much closer than the odds makers think with Sac having a chance to pull off the shocker in the end.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +3
Bottom Line: Playing on any cold team (NEW YORK) failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, and tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced a strong 72-34 ATS record since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. I'll side with a highly motivated Knicks team here as they show that they are much better than their record leads you to believe.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Pistons +4
Bottom Line: The Pistons should not be counted out tonight, considering they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games when valued as an underdog. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Memphis has lost 4 of 6 away from home this season and its wins came by just 4 and 6 points. The Grizzlies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. We'll take the Pistons as they have an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -5.5
Bottom Line: The 76ers are an impressive 6-1 SU and ATS at home where they are winning by an average of 19.1 points. Atlanta hasn't been nearly as strong on the road where it has taken 3 of its 4 losses. The 76ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Hawks have won 4 straight since Al Horford's injury but those 4 wins came at home - 3 of the teams had losing records and one is struggling. Atlanta played one game against Philly without Horford last season and was blasted by 34 points. We'll take the 76ers.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PUNISHER* on Mavs +3
Bottom Line: Utah had serious issues against the Mavs last season, losing all 4 meetings SU and ATS by an average of 13.5 points. Off back-to-back losses, the Mavs will give great effort tonight. Plus, they have been deadly as a road dog, covering the number in 25 of their last 33 in the role. Utah looks to be an improved team but most of its wins have come against lesser competition. We'll take the points.

4* Major NBA on TNT Primetime Power Play on Lakers +6
Bottom Line: This is a major revenge spot for Kobe and the Lakers, who were swept by the Heat last season. LeBron James isn't at full strength (flu) and Dwayne Wade is likely to miss again with an ankle injury. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, and the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Kobe looks a lot fresher than he did at any point last season. I'm expecting a big game from him tonight. We'll take the points.

4* Major on Hornets +10
Bottom Line: Houston won't have the legs to run away with this one against a hungry New Orleans team that's out to snap a 5-game skid. Playing on road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days against an extremely tired foe playing 9 or more games in 14 days has produced a 43-17 ATS record since 1996. Teams in this situation are only losing by an average of 3.8 points.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Kings +5.5
Bottom Line: The Kings will be happy to be back home tonight following 5 in a row on the road. The Pacers have had 3 days of rest, but that actually works against them here as it slows their momentum. The Pacers, who were just 13-28 away from home last season, have been inconsistent on the road again this season. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Western Conference.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Hornets +4.5
Bottom Line: Expect letdown city for Memphis, who is coming off a lopsided victory over the Bulls. The Grizzlies are just 1-4 away from home this season and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games dating back to last year. New Orleans lost to the Grizz by 9 Saturday, so it will relish the opportunity to avenge that loss so quickly.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Nets -2.5
Bottom Line: This is a tough scheduling spot for the Warriors, who are playing their 2nd game in as many nights and their 4th game in 5 days. The Nets, who are hungry for their first home win, will be the fresher team with a days' rest on their side. Golden State has dropped 11 of its last 13 at New Jersey. Plus, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the number.

4* Major on Wizards +11.5
Bottom Line: The Wizards are the worst team in the NBA, but they are still showing value catching double-digits at home. The Thunder have played 7 road games and haven't won by more than 10 points in any of them. The Thunder are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Washington.

4* Major on Spurs +5.5
Bottom Line: I'm not sold on the Orlando Magic this year. They are 10-3 but don't have any wins over teams I consider to be championship contenders. The Spurs were embarrassed last night in Miami and their 0-5 road start is not sitting well. The Spurs have some vets so playing back-to-back is not a desirable thing. However, this will be Orlando's third game in as many days. The Magic are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite.

5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Heat -6.5
Bottom Line: Recent history tells us the Heat are a strong investment when coming off a double-digit loss. In fact, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Spurs, meanwhile, are a lousy 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. San Antonio has really struggled on the road this season, going 0-4 SU and ATS and losing by an average of 11.2 points. No Dwayne Wade tonight, but that won't stop a hungry Miami squad from covering this number.

4* Major *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Bobcats +12
Bottom Line: Orlando won't give a Bobcats team it has already defeated by 21 points this season enough focus tonight, especially with a big matchup against San Antonio going down tomorrow night. Charlotte will show up not wanting to get embarrassed again, and I believe it has an excellent chance to pull off the shocker here. Orlando has won 9 in a row against the Bobcats but just 3 of those victories have exceeded tonight's number. Plus, the Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more.

4* Major NCAAB Big Chalk Blowout on LSU -9
Bottom Line: Auburn has been horrific on the road at 1-5 SU and ATS away from home this season with an average losing margin of 17.6 points. The Auburn Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Lakers -4
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Lakers, who were swept by the Mavs in last season's playoffs. The Lakers are 8-1 at home where they are winning by an average of 9.9 points. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Take the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (TNT) on Celtics +3.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics haven't lost 5 in a row overall or 4 in a row at home since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen arrived to join Paul Pierce in 2007. I expect these vets to leave it all out on the floor tonight to show this young Grizzlies team their not over the hill yet. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games in this series. While OKC is 5-1 on the road, we can't ignore the fact that it is winning those games by just 2.0 points on average. Take the points.

4* Major on Wizards +4
Bottom Line: Last night's embarrassing loss at Philadelphia is all the motivation the Wizards need tonight. Washington has won 4 in a row at home in this series. It is also worth noting that the 76ers have lost 9 of their last 11 ATS on the road when laying 5 to 10.5 points. Take the Wiz.

4* Major on Celtics +4
Bottom Line: Off 3 straight defeats and out to avenge a loss to Indiana earlier this season, expect the Celtics to come up big tonight. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Pacers are also 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet Boston.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Nuggets +3.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are dog tired with 3 of their last 4 games going to overtime and Denver's high altitude figures to do them no favors this evening. The Heat, who lost by 28 in Denver last season, Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings there. Plus, the Nuggets are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Miami won't have enough left in the tank down the stretch. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Game of the Month on Celtics +2.5
Bottom Line: Including the playoffs, the Celtics have won 10 of the last 12 at home against the Bulls. The Celtics are also a strong 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It looks like Derrick Rose will play tonight, but I expect him to show a little rust as his toe isn't fully healed and the Celtics are capable of putting the clamps on defensively.

4* Major NBA on TNT "Total" Bailout on Magic/Warriors UNDER 188
Bottom Line: The fact odds makers have set a total in the 180's tells us they are expecting a low-scoring game tonight, especially since both of these teams went well over 200 total points in their previous games. The Warriors aren't the same fast-break team under Mark Jackson, who has placed a much bigger focus on defense. Plus, Orlando is 13-4 UNDER in road games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Under is 12-4 in the Warriors' last 16 overall as well. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Grizzlies -4.5
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite. They are also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. We'll take the fresher Grizzlies at home tonight.

4* Major NBA Bailout (ESPN) on Clippers +4.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are banged up and fatigued, and it showed in last night's overtime loss to the Warriors. It will be tough for them to bounce back against a talented and fresher Clippers squad that has played 3 less games on the season. Home court has been extremely important in this series as the home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -4
Bottom Line: Philly has benefited from playing a soft early schedule. It has won 6 in a row but none of those wins came against elite teams. In fact, Indiana is the only one of the 6 that will likely make the playoffs. The Knicks have already defeated the Celtics, and they'll be looking to make a statement that their the best team in the Atlantic tonight. The Knicks won 117-103 the last time the 76ers visited MSG. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings in the Garden and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall. The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Knicks.

4* Major Tuesday NBA Bailout on Warriors +7.5
Bottom Line: The Warriors are 36-12-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Golden State has defeated the Bulls and the Knicks and has played the Spurs and Lakers to 6 and 7-point games to earn covers. The Warriors hang around tonight as well.

4* Major on Timberwolves +7
Bottom Line: Minnesota has only lost one home game by more than 7 points this season. The T-Wolves have home wins over Dallas and San Antonio and lost by just 4 and 3 points respectively to Oklahoma City and Miami. The improved T-Wolves keep this one close to get the cover.

4* Major on Grizzlies +3.5
Bottom Line: Oklahoma City is 8-2 but 4 of its wins have come by 4 points or less and it hasn't won by more than 3 points in its last 3 road games. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. Also, the Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.

4* Major on Pistons +7
Bottom Line: The Pistons are struggling, but so are the Mavs. Dirk is really struggling offensively without Jason Kidd on the floor to get him the ball in his sweet spot. The Mavericks are a lousy 15-38-1 ATS in their last 54 vs. the NBA Central. The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Wizards -2.5
Bottom Line: Odds makers are tipping their hand here. This is the first time the Wizards have been favored since their season opener, which tells us they expect the Wiz to record their first win of the season tonight. I agree with the odds makers completely. The Wizards are at home and will be fresher than a Toronto team that just played last night. The value clearly lies with Washington, which is 65-37 ATS in its last 102 games after 5 or more consecutive losses.

4* Major Monday NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Raptors -3
Bottom Line: There's no doubt Toronto will be jacked up to play tonight after getting handed a 35-point defeat by the 76ers last time out. Plus, its dominance over Minnesota can't be ignored. The Raptors have won 7 straight north of the border in this series by an average of 10.9 points. The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in those games. We'll lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +6
Bottom Line: With Boston coming off a double digit win and Indiana coming off a double digit loss, the Pacer are being undervalued by odds makers. Boston is 8-26 ATS since the beginning of last season when checking in off a win of 10 points or more. It is only winning by 0.1 points on average in this spot. It's also worth noting the Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a defeat of more than 10 points. We'll pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Blazers -3.5
Bottom Line: The Blazers have won 23 of their last 29 at home against the Lakers, and I expect them to continue their home dominance against LA tonight. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games while the Blazers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games. The Blazers are also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games in this series.

4* Major NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER 188.5
Bottom Line: With LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are both banged up and listed as questionable, points will be tough to come by for the Heat against a good Atlanta defense. The Under is 35-17 in the Hawks' last 52 overall, 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog, 20-6 in their last 26 games as a home underdog and 10-3 in Hawks last 13 home games. The Under is 4-1 in the Heat's last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 6-2 in their last 8 road games. The Under is also 20-8 in the last 28 meetings between these two sides.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Rockets +7.5
Bottom Line: The Clippers continue to be overvalued as the public continues to buy into the hype generated by Chris Paul. We'll fade away with a solid Houston club that has covered the spread in 13 of the last 16 on the road in this series. Plus, the Clippers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

4* Major *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Pistons +6.5
Bottom Line: Detroit wants a piece of Chicago badly as it has lost 11 in a row in the series, and it catches the Bulls at the perfect time. Chicago used a ton of energy in last night's comeback win over Atlanta and won't have the legs in this one. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 in this series.

4* Major NBA Dog of the Night on Bobcats +4
Bottom Line: The underdog has dominated this series going 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games when valued as an underdog 4.5 points or fewer. The Cavs are a lousy 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games when listed as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. Bet the Bobcats.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Pistons +2.5
Bottom Line: I fully expect the 0-3 Pistons to upset the 3-0 Pacers tonight. The Pistons have won the last 2 at home in this series and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Pacers are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when playing without a day of rest, and will have a difficult time bouncing back after playing an overtime game last night. Pound the Pistons.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jazz +3
Bottom Line: The Jazz are 0-2 and haven't looked good, but both of those games were on the road. They are a different team at home, where they have won 20 of their last 22 against the 76ers. This is Philly's 3rd-straight road game, and it's never easy on teams when playing multiple games in a row away from home. Losing to the Nuggets and the Lakers - two of the best in the west - was expected. Now, the Jazz will have an opportunity to break into the win column against a lesser opponent. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +9
Bottom Line: These teams met 4 times last season. Atlanta won 3 of the last 4 meetings but 2 of those wins came by 7 points or less. Basically, the Hawks are getting too much respect here because of their 36-point win over New Jersey. We can't read too much into that effort because the Nets used a ton of energy the night before to erase a 21-point deficit against the Wizards. We'll take the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator (TNT) on Celtics/Heat UNDER 187
Bottom Line: Miami is 25-12 to the "Under" under coach Spoelstra when checking in off a road win of 10 points or more. It is also 9-0 "Under" all-time under Spoelstra after leading in its previous game by 20 or more points at the half. We have seen just 173.8 total points scored in these games. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Season Opener on Warriors +6
Bottom Line: Odds makers are looking to trap the public on opening day by playing on all the buzz surrounding Chris Paul's move to the Clippers. The regular season is much different than the preseason, and I expect the Clipps to struggle early while Paul and his teammates try to jell. The Warriors are no slouch at home, and I'll gladly take them in this point-spread range considering they are an impressive 36-13-3 ATS in their last 52 home games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

4* Major *PRIMETIME PUNISHER (ESPN2) on Texas +11.5
Bottom Line: Since defeating Michigan State by 12 in its season opener, UNC has played what I consider to be 4 quality opponents (UNLV, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Long Beach State). The Heels lost to UNLV by 10 points and Kentucky by 1, and defeated the other two by no more than 6 points. I believe UNC will have trouble pulling away tonight against an athletic Texas team that really gets after it on defense. The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 while the Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Texas.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Gonzaga -13
Bottom Line: Expect a big letdown from Butler tonight following its upset win over Purdue. The Butler Bulldogs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record. This is not the same Butler team that made it to back-to-back nation title games and it will struggle in its first game outside the Midwest this season. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Canisius +7.5
Bottom Line: The Griffins get the call tonight as they fit into a pair of very profitable situations. First off, playing on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CANISIUS) that are coming off a road loss by 20 points or more, in December games, has produced a 71-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Secondly, playing on road teams as an underdog or pickem (CANISIUS) after 5 or more consecutive losses, playing with 5 or 6 days rest, has produced a 47-20 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Both of these systems point out the tendency of odds makers to undervalue teams coming off blowout losses and teams on losing streaks. The Griffs are being undervalued tonight and we'll take advantage.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on Tennessee +3
Bottom Line: Tennessee has long been a phenomenal investment in the underdog role, and I won't hesitate to take the points with the Vols in this highly motivated spot. Tennessee is an impressive 81-55 ATS in its last 136 games as an underdog (record doesn't reflect pushes) and 29-13 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or fewer. The Vols were upset at home by Charleston last year, and I expect them to return the favor tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10
Bottom Line: With a total of 113, odds makers aren't expecting many points to be scored tonight. With this in mind, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is showing good value catching double digits. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Wisconsin-Milwaukee got caught looking ahead to this matchup last game and went down by 16 at Northern Iowa. That's actually not a bad thing considering the way big defeats have motivated the Panthers. They are an impressive 32-14 ATS in their last 46 games following a 1oss of 15 points or more. They are losing these contests by just 2.2 points on average. The Panthers are 5-0 at home this season and they'll give the Badgers a game tonight. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on UCLA -6.5
Bottom Line: UCLA got rid of a big distraction by suspending Reeves Nelson. Without that distraction, the Bruins can get back to playing basketball. Look for this team to make a major statement with a big win tonight. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The fact UCLA has done a fantastic job of taking care of the basketball bodes well for us also as it is 6-0 ATS lifetime under coach Howland after 2 straight games committing 8 or less turnovers. It has won by an average of 19.6 points in this situation. Pound UCLA.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on Richmond +3
Bottom Line: The Spiders, who defeated VCU by 12 points last season, have been a tremendous investment. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 road games, 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games as an underdog and 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on St. Bonaventure +10.5
Bottom Line: Undefeated and off a big win over a ranked Gonzaga team, this young Illinois squad is being overvalued. I'll gladly take the points with a veteran St. Bonnie bunch that is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when listed as an underdog. We'll bet the Bonnies.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Washington +8
Bottom Line: Marquette is being overvalued here because of its 7-0 start and finds itself in a letdown spot following a big upset win over Wisconsin. Washington, meanwhile, will be in bounce back mode following an upset loss to Nevada. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the points.

4* Major NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Florida +6.5
Bottom Line: The Gators are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Orange are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. I love the fact the Gators have already been competitive with Ohio State on the road, a team that might be in a class all its own after the way it cruised against Duke. Great spot for the Gators.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -12.5
Bottom Line: Expect Wake to struggle in its first true road game of the season. The Demon Deacs are just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games when valued as an underdog of 10 points or more. They have lost in this situation by an average score or 82.8 to 65.3. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Maryland +4.5
Bottom Line: There are a number of trends working against this inexperienced Illinois team as it plays a true road game for the first time this season. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Terrapins are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Big Ten. Maryland lost by 4 points in last season's matchup, and I like it to have its revenge here.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Play of the Day on S. Alabama +15.5
Bottom Line: Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LSU) - poor shooting team making 42% or less of its shots on the season - against an opponent that made 33% of its shots or worse last game are 44-17 ATS since 1997. This system is 17-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, S. Alabama is 8-0 ATS all-time under coach Arrow in road games versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or less. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN2) on Cal +2.5
Bottom Line: We'll fade Mizzou in this spot considering plays against favorites that beat the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, provided they have won 80% or more of their games on the season, are 38-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 18-3 (86%) ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points as an experienced Cal team does a good job of handling Mizzou's pressure tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on Louisiana-Monroe +20
Bottom Line: After a pair of big neutral floor wins over Texas A&M and Arizona, the Mississippi State Bulldogs return home as an overvalued favorite. The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games as a favorite of 13 or more points. We'll take the Warhawks.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Underdog Game of the Month on Winthrop +18
Bottom Line: Winthrop fits into a strong neutral court system tonight. Neutral court teams (WINTHROP) after 2 consecutive losses of 10 points or more, provided they are taking on a team that scored at least 80 points in its last game, are 107-60 (64%) ATS since 1997. Amazingly, teams in this situation have only lost by an average of 4.1 points. This system tightens up to 50-26 (66%) ATS the last 5 seasons and 25-12 (68%) the last 3 seasons. It's also worth noting that the Winthrop Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on UL Monroe +21.5
Bottom Line: I'm not about to drink the Tennessee kool aid after one game. This is still an inexperienced team trying to gel under a new coach. The Vols shot nearly 65% from the field against NC Greensboro and only won by 29 points. I have no doubt Tennessee's shooting will come back down to earth in this one. The Vols are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. We'll take the UL Monroe Warhawks.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on Weber State -2.5
Bottom Line: Riding high following a win over BYU, Utah State won't give Weber State the attention it deserves tonight. This is a game Weber State wants badly, having lost 4 in a row in the series. While motivation is rarely enough on its own, the Wildcats also have the edge in terms of personnel. The Wildcats return 3 players who averaged in double figures last season and 7 of their top nine scorers overall. Utah State only returns one player who averaged double figures and only 2 of its top seven scorers. Weber State is 15-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Rahe. It's 18-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick under coach Rahe and 13-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick as the coach. It's winning these games by an average score of 77.3 to 69.9. Take Weber State.

4* Major NCAAB Play of the Day on UNC Greensboro +19.5
Bottom Line: Dating back to last season, the Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 lined games. They're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Spartans are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Take the Spartans.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on NC Greensboro +14
Bottom Line: The Volunteers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Spartans are 10-3-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *Blood Bath* on Lehigh +13
Bottom Line: Lehigh is 6-0 ATS in all lined games the last 2 seasons, and I fully expect its point-spread winning streak to continue tonight. This line has been elevated because of St. John's 15-point season-opening victory. That performance, however, wasn't as solid as the final score might lead you to believe. The Red Storm were outrebounded in that game and allowed the William & Mary Tribe to shoot nearly 46% from the field. The Johnnies greatly benefited from a huge turnover margin in that contest, but I don't see them coming up with as many turnovers tonight against an experienced Lehigh team (4 starters back) that only averaged 13 giveaways per game last season. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *Underdog Shocker* on William & Mary +8.5
Bottom Line: A William & Mary squad that returns 4 starters has an excellent chance to pull off the upset against a St. John's team that lost 96.3% of its scoring from last year's team. The Tribe are an awesome 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as an underdog, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big East while the Red Storm are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Colonial Athletic Association. The Red Storm are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take the Tribe.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Primetime Punisher (ABC) on Heat -4.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are 9-1 at home in these playoffs. Their lone loss came in Game 2 when they blew a 15 point lead down the stretch. Staring elimination and disappointment in the face, Miami won't be blowing any leads tonight. I think Miami wins Game 5 if Dallas doesn't go off from 3-point range, making 5 more 3's and shooting them 31% better than they have on average all season. The shots won't fall as easily in Miami, especially with the Heat set to up the intensity on the defensive end. Game 5 was a fluke. Prior to that, Miami had held Dallas to 40% shooting or worse in 3 of the previous 4 matchups. Lay the points as Miami forces a Game 7 with a win and cover.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game of the Year on Heat +1.5
Bottom Line: The Heat still had a chance to win Game 4 despite the worst playoff performance of LeBron James' career. A motivated James will be impossible to stop tonight. I believe he will be the catalyst to a Game 5 victory for Miami. The Heat haven't lost 2 straight since the beginning or March. They have bounced back after each of their most recent defeats with wins of 6, 21, 16, 9, 6, 8, 10, and 2 points. I fully expect Miami to bounce back yet again. Take the Heat.

5* Wiseguy Primetime Total on Heat/Mavs OVER 186.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is 19-7 Over in its last 26 home games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. We are seeing an average of 193.5 total points scored in these games. The Mavs are also 15-5 Over in their last 20 home games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points. We have seen an average of 195.8 total points scored in these spots. Lastly, Dallas is 20-8 Over in its last 28 games after a combined score of 175 points or less. We're seeing an average of 197.7 total points scored in this situation. Pound the Over.

5* Wiseguy Primetime Punisher on Mavs -3
Bottom Line: History is on our side here considering home teams when the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) off an upset loss, if they are a good team (winning 60% to 75% of their games) and playing a team with a winning record, are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. Dallas is 7-2 at home in these playoffs where it has not lost back-to-back games. In fact, the Mavs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following defeat. Dallas knows it let Miami dictate the tempo in Game 3 and you can bet that won't happen again here. Dallas bounced back in Game 2 and I expect an even more impressive performance this evening.

4* Major NBA Finals Primetime Total on Heat/Mavericks UNDER 189
Bottom Line: According to closing lines, plays Under on any team in the NBA Finals are 102-56 since 1996. If the posted total is between 180 and 189.5 points, this system tightens up to 44-8 (84.6%), including a perfect 8-0 since 2009. We'll play by the numbers and take the Under here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Primetime Punisher on Heat +2.5
Bottom Line: Outside the last 7 minutes of Game 2, Miami's defense has dominated the Mavs. Expect its defense to be the difference tonight. Miami has either won or lost by 2 points in each of the last 3 meetings with Dallas so it is showing nice value catching better than a deuce. Plus, the Heat are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games following a defeat, winning those games by 21, 16, 9, 6, 8 and 10 points respectively. Miami hasn't dropped back-to-back contests since early in March and I don't expect this trend to come to an end here. Take the Heat.

4* Major NBA Finals Primetime Total on Mavs/Heat OVER 186
Bottom Line: We saw 176 total points in Game 1 with the Mavs and Heat shooting just 37.3% and 38.7% respectively. Just five more field goals and we're at tonight's number. That is very doable considering both of these teams are shooting over 47% for the season. These teams played to the Over in both regular season meetings, combining to score 201 and 194 points respectively. Both of those games had a quicker pace than we saw in Game 1 and I expect to see a more uptempo game tonight. Dallas will really look to push the pace to find easier scoring opportunities when the stingy Miami defense isn't set. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Over is 9-4 in the Mavericks' last 13 games as a road underdog and 6-1 in the Heat's last 7 games as a home favorite. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Primetime Punisher on Mavs +5
Bottom Line: I love the Mavs catching 5 points in this bounce back spot. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami. Also, Dallas is an impressive 20-7 ATS this season when in the road underdog role. It is winning these contests by an average score of 96.6 to 95.9. Dallas played much faster in its two wins over Miami during the regular season and I look for it to revisit that strategy here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 1 MONSTER (ABC) on Mavericks +4.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is 13-2 ATS in all playoff games this season and 17-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. The Mavericks are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Dallas has won each of its 3 Game 1s in these playoffs and it will be fueled by its NBA Finals loss to Miami 5 years ago in this one. Take the Mavs and the points.

5* Wiseguy Game 5 MONSTER (TNT) on Bulls -3
Bottom Line: The Bulls fit into a very profitable situation tonight. Consider that favorites playing at home against a team that has defeated them 3 straight times, provided both they and their opponent carrying winning percentages between 60% and 75%, are 101-31 SU and 83-44 ATS since 1996. These teams are winning in this spot by an average score of 98.9 to 91.8. Lay the points with the Bulls in this triple revenge spot.

4* Major Game 5 Primetime Punisher on Thunder +6.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder won't go quietly into the night. They are the only team in these playoffs with a win at Dallas and they have shown resilience throughout the postseason. Last round, the Thunder blew a big lead late and lost in OT to Memphis. They rebounded and won the next game in triple OT. With this in mind, I don't see them being too discouraged to get up for this game. This is just too many points for a team with a never say die attitude to be catching in an elimination game. OKC is a solid 26-15 ATS when playing with double revenge over the last 2 seasons. It is winning these contests by an average score of 99.5 to 97.8. Take the points.