Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -5.5
The Key: Going back to last season, the Heat are now 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 NBA Finals contests. They are also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. In addition, OKC is 9-0 at home in these playoffs with those wins coming by an average of 10.7 points. Miami got good production from its role players in Game 1, but it still wasn't enough. The Thunder came back from 13 down despite getting much of anything from spark plug James Harden. I like Harden to be a major factor tonight and for the Thunder to go up 2-0. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -5
The Key: When the Heat have been deemed an underdog by the books it has been for good reason as they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Thunder, on the other hand, are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Oklahoma City is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. The Thunder are the more rested team, and they have the advantage at home where they haven't lost in these playoffs.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -8
The Key: Miami has only lost 7 home games all season and thus far it is an unbeaten 6-0 in its next home game following a home defeat, winning those games by a whopping 20.7 points on average. I fully expect this trend to continue tonight. The Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. LeBron James proved he is the best in the world with his Game 6 performance. Look for him to take over Game 7 as well. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -127
The Key: The Heat just as easily could be ahead in this series had the ball bounced their way a couple more times. We saw the energy San Antonio came out with when facing elimination last night, and it would have covered the spread had a couple plays went its way down the stretch. The Heat will come out with similar energy here, and I expect them to have enough to hold off any late Boston rally. Chris Bosh will be a much bigger part of this game, and LeBron James will show why he is the best player on the planet. Road favorites (MIAMI) out for revenge for a straight up loss as a favorite that are off an upset loss as a home favorite are 86-49 ATS since 1996. These teams have won in this situation by an average of 4.7 points. Also, the Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

7* Western Conference Finals Game of the Year on Spurs +4.5
The Key: The Spurs are too good and too experienced to drop 4 in a row to the Thunder. The last 2 games have been close, but I expect San Antonio to take its play to another level as it stares elimination in the face. San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games the last 2 seasons when out to avenge a loss to an opponent as a home favorite. The Spurs have won by an average of 6.5 points in this situation. Take the Spurs and the points!

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -7.5
The Key: With or without Bosh, the Heat are the play on their home floor this evening. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 playoff games as a favorite. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Lastly, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Miami is 35-6 at home this season. Figuring in the 6 losing margins, it is still defeating its foes by 11.5 points at home this season. Take Miami.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +5
The Key: After tying the series with a pair of impressive home wins, the Thunder head to San Antonio with the momentum and a ton of confidence. The Spurs have been sensational at home, but my research indicates they are being overvalued. They are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. In fact, the Thunder are an impressive 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Thunder and the points as they have an excellent opportunity to steal one in San Antonio tonight.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Heat -1.5
The Key: Despite a lackluster defensive effort in Game 3, poor shooting from the foul line (50%) and a subpar performance from Dwayne Wade, the Heat only lost by 10 points. I'm extremely confident that all of the aforementioned will be greatly improved tonight as the Heat take complete control of the series. Miami allowed Boston to shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind that it hadn't allowed any team to shoot that high in these playoffs. It only made 10 of 20 free throws, which was its fewest makes and worst percentage in this series. Wade had 18 points in Game 3 but only scored 2 in the paint and didn't get to the foul line. Wade had racked up 12 straight 20-point playoff games before Game 3. Miami, the younger team, should still be the fresher team. It should also be noted that the Heat haven't lost more than one road game in each of their first two series'. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of fewer than 5.0 points. Take the Heat.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs +3.5
The Key: After 20 consecutive wins the Spurs not only lost, they were crushed by 20 points. Recent history tells us, however, they won't go down again tonight. Consider that the Spurs are an undefeated 8-0 ATS following a loss of 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. They have won these games by an average of 13.0 points. Take San Antonio in this bounce back spot.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +2
The Key: After such an emotionally and physically draining loss, the old, banged-up Celtics won't have enough left in the tank tonight. Even Rondo has to be gassed after playing 53 minutes in Game 2. The Celtics ended up covering the number in that game but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. All the pressure is on Boston tonight. Miami will be able to play much looser with a 2-game cushion. Take the Heat.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -4
The Key: The Thunder return home after losing the first two games of the series, and they'll be playing with a sense of desperation. Desperate teams are the most dangerous, and I expect this talented Thunder squad to be very dangerous tonight. The Thunder are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points while the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points. The Thunder have won all 5 of their home games this postseason with 2 of their last 3 home wins coming by 29 and 16 points. We'll take the Thunder.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -8
The Key: The Heat are playing with a ton of confidence as they have found their rhythm. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with a 16.5-point average margin of victory in those contests. The Heat are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Celtics are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami. Boston looks very tired at this stage of the playoffs. And with Avery Bradley out for the season and Ray Allen badly hobbled, the C's are really lacking on both ends of the floor at the off-guard position. Lay the number.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +4.5
The Key: We cashed in with the Thunder +5.5 in Game 1, and I'll stick with them here as plays against home favorites when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%), are 25-6 ATS since 1996. The "play against" side has won by just 1.4 points on average in these games. Also, this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Thunder haven't lost consecutive games since early April, and I don't expect them to start now.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -8
The Key: I'm not hesitating to lay the points with the Heat in Game 1 as home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to less than 85 points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points. Miami will not be overlooking a Boston squad that has defeated it 3 straight times. Plus, the Heat have the big edge in terms of freshness as they have had 3 days of rest and the Celtics have had just one.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +5.5
The Key: The Spurs are getting a little too much respect in Game 1 of this series against a Thunder squad that is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 playoff games as an underdog. In addition, the Thunder are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Spurs haven't really been tested at all this postseason, which won't do them any favors as they face their stiffest test in a long time. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics -5.5
The Key: Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games in nearly 2 months. Prior to its Game 6 defeat, it had lost 8 games dating back to April 5. It is a perfect 8-0 following those losses with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points in those games. Expect this bounce back trend to continue. The fact the Celtics have had 2 days' rest in between Game 6 and 7 is also key. The C's had 2 day's rest following their Game 4 loss and pounded the 76ers 101-85 in Game 5. We'll take the more proven side at home against the inexperienced 76ers.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +3.5
The Key: The Heat can't be trusted laying points on the road. After all, they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points. The Heat's physical play may have won Game 5, but it will cost them tonight as key frontline player Udonis Haslem will miss this contest (suspended for a flagrant foul). With Bosh already out, Miami will get nothing on the interior in terms of scoring. Plus, it will also get crushed on the boards by the bigger Pacers. Look for Indiana to bounce back strong here.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers -124
The Key: Neither team has won back-to-back games in this series, and I expect this trend to continue tonight. The 76ers have won the rebounding battle in 3 of the last 4 games in this series and their dominance on the glass will be the difference tonight. Philly is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. The 76ers have won by an average score of 100.4 to 82.9 in this situation. Boston rolled last game but it benefited from 2 days' rest. The aging Celtics won't have the same hop in their step playing 1 days' rest here. The Celtics are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days' rest. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and Celtics are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.

7* Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -6.5
The Key: Miami's Game 2 loss was just its 6th home defeat of the entire season. Recent history tells us the Heat don't like losing at home. In fact, Miami is a perfect 5-0 this season in home games following a home loss, which means they haven't lost consecutive home games all year. It is certainly worth mentioning that those 5 wins have come by 35, 7, 23, 23 and 9 points. We saw the way Indiana rode the momentum from its Game 2 road win to a big victory at home in Game 3. I expect a similar outcome in the Heat's favor this time around.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +8
The Key: The Thunder find themselves in a letdown spot here as they are 9-22 ATS all-time under coach Brooks following a close win by 3 points or less, including just 4-14 ATS if that close win came on the road. They have lost by an average score of 103.6 to 98.8 in this 18-game situation. Kobe Bryant does not want to wait until next year to make a run at his sixth ring. He likely will, but I expect him to do everything in his power to give the Thunder a game tonight. The Lakers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and the Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs Second Round Game of the Year on Heat -125
The Key: LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are 2 of the top 10 players in the world and neither (especially Wade) played like it in Game 3. I expect strong efforts from both players as they even the series Sunday afternoon. History is in our favor as plays against any good team (Indiana) that outscores its opponents by 3+ points/game on the season that is matched up against an opponent that has been held to 75 points or less in 2 straight games are 24-5 ATS since 1996 and a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat.

6* NBA Bailout on Thunder +1
The Key: A more youthful Thunder squad has the advantage playing without a days' rest. The Lakers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Lakers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog, and I expect this trend to continue.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +5.5
The Key: I'm confident we'll see the Clippers' best effort of the series this afternoon. This team, which played the Spurs to a 3-point game in the season's only meeting in L.A., cannot be taken lightly in the home dog role. After all, they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Clipps are also 14-3 ATS in home games versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. L.A. has actually won by an average score of 96.2 to 94.9 in this situation.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Celtics/76ers Under 174
The Key: Plays Under on all teams when the total is 179.5 or less (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record - are 69-33 since 1996, including a perfect 2-0 the last 3 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 174.9 but have only seen average of 169.6 total points scored in this situation. I'm expecting the lowest scoring game of the series tonight as both teams clamp down defensively. Take the Under and best of luck.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +11
The Key: Look for the Clippers to bounce back strong to give the Spurs a game tonight. The Clippers are 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent this season. They have actually won by an average score of 96.1 to 89.3 in this situation.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +8
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Thunder following such a dominant performance in Game 1. They are 0-7 ATS following a victory by 20 points or more this season. They have only won by an average score of 112.1 to 108.4 so the Lakers are certainly showing value at this number. Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -11.5
The Key: The Spurs have been covering machines at 37-11-4 ATS in their last 52 games overall. They are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 home games and even 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more. The Clippers, meanwhile, are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Clippers are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings with San Antonio.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics -4.5
The Key: Boston won Game 1 but knows it was fortunate to do so. It did not play its best basketball, and I expect it to step it up on both ends of the floor tonight. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of less than 5.0 points and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0 points or less. The 76ers are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0 or less. Lastly, Boston has won 7 of its last 8 at home vs. Philadelphia with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.1 points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -7.5
The Key: The numbers aren't in LA's favor here as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) that are looking for revenge for a home loss to a foe, if they enter off a cover in a game they lost straight up, are just 29-61 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 7.1 points on average but have lost by an average of 9.5 points in this situation. The favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the Grizzlies are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite. Take Memphis.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers -5.5
The Key: The Lakers have recent history and extended history on their side here. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Also, home favorites (LA LAKERS) off a double-digit road defeat, if they have won between 60 and 75% of their games and are taking on a team with a winning mark, are 59-25 (70.2%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 5.4 points and have won by an average of 8.2.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -125
The Key: Rather than take the chance of getting caught by something flukish in the closing seconds, I'm taking the Grizzlies on the money line as I love them to win this one straight up. Memphis has been the better team the majority of the series and would have already closed it out if not for blown leads in the 4th in Games 1 and 3. Memphis is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games when valued as a favorite of less than 5.0 points. Also, the fave is on a 5-2-1 ATS run in the last 8 matchups between these teams. We'll take Memphis on the money line.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawks +6.5
The Key: Boston has constantly been overvalued in the spot we find it in tonight. The C's are only 25-45 ATS in their last 70 home games when out for revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. The Celtics have only won by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. In other words, the points are looking pretty good tonight. Plus, the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 postseason contests when valued as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the underdog has covered the number in 7 of the last 9 matchups. Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -6
The Key: History is on our side here in a big way as home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 60-26 (70%) ATS the last 5 seasons. These faves have won by an average of 8.7 points. Lay the points as the Grizzlies come through at home in this do-or-die spot.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls -4.5
The Key: I'm not ready to turn my back on the Bulls. They had an excellent chance to win both Games 3 and 4, and I expect the home crowd to get them over the hump down the stretch tonight. Chicago is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. It is also 14-4 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -1
The Key: Expect the Hawks to respond following Sunday's embarrassing defeat. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of 11.0 points or more. Also, Boston is only 18-34 ATS after a double-digit victory over the last 2 seasons.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers -10
The Key: The Pacers are clearly the superior team in this series, and I expect them to be very focused tonight after blowing a big lead in Game 4. The Magic have had 2 days to regroup but are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games when playing on 2 days' rest. They are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. In addition, plays against any team (ORLANDO) that is looking for revenge for a home loss to a foe, as long as the "play against" side is coming off an ATS win in a game it lost SU, are 161-102 ATS (61.2%) the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +8.5
The Key: Going all the way back to 1996, playing against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, as long as they are a top-level team (>=75%) and are matched up against a team with a winning record, has produced a 53-25 ATS (68%) mark. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.5 points but have only won by 2.8 points on average. The Jazz, who have won 25 of 34 home games this season, are showing excellent value catching 8.5 points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +2.5
The Key: After getting kicked in Game 3, the Lakers will take the floor with a greater sense of urgency tonight. L.A. is on a 6-1 ATS run when checking into a game following a defeat of 11.0 points or more. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run when listed as a road underdog of less than 5.0 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +3.5
The Key: The Bulls are a perfect 9-0 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. They have won by an average of 14.8 points in this situation. This Chicago team has too much pride to sulk over the injuries to Rose and Noah. Expect the Bulls to bounce back strong here.

6* NBA Bailout on Jazz +6
The Key: Playing against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 53-24 ATS since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.5 points but have only won by an average of 2.7. Take the Jazz and the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 187
The Key: Playing the "Under" on all playoff teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MEMPHIS), given the series is tied and the team sports a winning record, has produced a 35-9 mark the last 5 seasons. This system can't be ignored, especially since teams fitting into it are only combining for 180.2 points. Take the Under.

7* 1st Round Game of the Year on Magic +5
The Key: The Magic have an excellent shot to win this game outright given they are at home and will be highly motivated. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a home loss of 10 points or more. Also, teams coaches by Stan VG are 27-12 ATS lifetime when checking in off a loss of 15 points or more. His teams have won by an average of 3.9 points in these spots. The Pacers are a poor 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, and the Magic are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games in the underdog role. Take the Magic and the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -3.5
The Key: Denver definitely has the edge here at home where it should be able to control the tempo. The Nuggets are going to run-and-gun a Lakers team without great depth right off the court (the high-altitude will do no favors for LA). The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Bet Denver.

6* NBA CA$H COW on Bulls +1.5
The Key: No Rose for the rest of this series, but Chicago still has the edge because of how well it can perform on the defensive end. It is 7-0 ATS when looking for revenge for a loss to a foe that occurred this season. It has won these contests by 12.4 points while holding the opposition to just 81.3 points in these spots. In other words, it has really stepped up the "D" in revenge spots, and I expect no different here.

6* NBA Bailout on Mavs -3.5
The Key: It's been made apparent in the first two games of this series that the reigning champs won't go down without a fight. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of less then 5.0 points. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. the NBA Southwest division and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings with Dallas. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +6
The Key: The Knicks are arguably a better team without Stoudemire because of the liability he is at the defensive end. It was no surprise, in my opinion, that they won 9 of 13 games without him in the lineup down the stretch. The Knicks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Heat are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. We'll see New York's best effort of the entire series tonight, and it should be good enough to get the cover.

6* NBA Playoffs Bailout on Grizzlies -6.5
The Key: The Grizzlies blew a 27-point lead in Game 1, and they'll be extremely hungry in Game 2 because of it. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 or their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win rates), are 60-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams, which have been favored by an average of 5.6 points, have won by an average of 8.8 points. Memphis has won 11 of its last 12 at home with those 11 wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. In other words, the Grizzlies are showing value laying just 6.5. Lay the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +3.5
The Key: The Pacers can't be trusted laying points on the road considering they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points. The Magic, on the other hand, are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of less than 5.0 points. Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +6
The Key: This is a strong situational spot for Denver as road teams coming off a blowout loss of at least 15 points, provided they average 102 points or more per game and are up against a team that averages 92-98 ppg, are 61-27 ATS since 1996. The team fitting these parameters has won outright by an average of 1.2 points. Also, this system is 2-0 ATS this season. The Lakers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Nuggets.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +5
The Key: This line is an overreaction by odds makers to Rondo's absence due to suspension. Boston's ability to lock down its opponent on the defensive end cannot be overlooked here. The Celtics are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a defeat. Game 1 was the only time Atlanta has defeated Boston by more than 5 points in the last 7 meetings. Grab the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers -8.5
The Key: We won with Orlando +9 in Game 1, but we'll side with the Pacers tonight. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) that are looking for revenge for a defeat, provided they were limited to fewer than 85 points in the loss, they hold a winning percentage of 60-75% and their opponent has a winning record, are 40-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. These squads have won by 10.5 points on average in this situation. The Pacers were caught overlooking a Dwight Howard-less team in Game 1, but they won't get caught napping again. Indy flexes its muscles here and scores a blowout victory.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (TNT) on Grizzlies -5.5
The Key: The Grizzlies went 5-0-1 ATS in the first round of last year's playoffs, and I expect their first round dominance to continue against a Clippers squad checking in at 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite and 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis has been dominant at home, where it has won 11 in a row and went 5-1 in the 2011 postseason.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (ABC) on Nuggets +5
The Key: The Lakers have been almost a dead fade as home chalk at 2-10 ATS in their last 12 in the role. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavs +7.5
The Key: The Mavs have been a phenomenal dog in the postseason at 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games when catching points. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 postseason games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 first round contests. The Thunder are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams from the NBA Southwest division and just 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 home games versus Dallas. The Mavs are sick of hearing they're all washed up. Expect them to give the Thunder a game tonight.

6* NBA CA$H COW on Magic +9
The Key: Even without Dwight Howard on the floor, the Pacers can't be trusted laying this many points. They are only 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 postseason games as a favorite.

6* NBA CA$H COW on Bobcats +5
The Key: Charlotte wants no part of going down in NBA history as the team with the lowest winning percentage for a single season. That should be all the motivation it needs here and it should benefit from playing a Knicks team that plans to sit Melo, Stoudemire and Chandler among others. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games when laying points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +3.5
The Key: I missed with the Clippers yesterday but am not hesitating to come right back with them here as they need this game to lock up home-court in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. The underdog is an incredible 8-1 ATS in the last 9 matchups between these two foes, and I expect this trend to continue.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +2.5
The Key: The way Atlanta played defensively last game is a big concern. They allowed the Knicks to hang 113 points on them on 54.4% shooting. This is noteworthy because Atlanta is 0-9 ATS in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It has lost these games by an average of 7.2 points. The Clippers won the season's first meeting by 14 points, and they hold the advantage again tonight. Due to injuries, Atlanta's front line is weak. LA should be able to own the paint.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Raptors +10.5
The Key: The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are also 0-8 ATS since the beginning of last season in home games when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Milwaukee needs this game to keeps its playoff hopes alive, but it hasn't defeated the Raptors by more than 7 points in 4 straight and 7 of the last 8 meetings.

6* NBA CA$H COW on Lakers +1.5 -110
The Key: The Lakers are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season. Furthermore, they have lost both of this season's meetings with the Thunder by at least 9 points. These things assure me that the Lakers will be extremely motivated this afternoon. The Lakers are 25-7 at home this season where they have wins over Miami, Boston, LA Clippers and only lost to the Bulls by a single point. The Thunder have really struggled against upper echelon teams this month. Since opening the month with a win over the Bulls, they have lost to Memphis, Miami, Indiana and the Clippers (twice). The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take LA.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +9
The Key: Strongly feel the odds makers have overvalued the absence of Dwight Howard. He has been a major distraction, and now the team can just focus on playing basketball. The Jazz are fighting for a playoff spot, but the Magic also have incentive. A win gives them the 6-seed in the East so they can avoid Chicago and Miami. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Magic are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Utah and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Spurs -6.5
The Key: Kobe Bryant returns to the lineup for the Lakers tonight, but I don't expect him to play big minutes and I expect him to show some rust. The Spurs have rattled off 5 straight wins, including a 21-point victory over the Lakers Tuesday, and I like them to keep rolling as they look to strengthen their position for the top seed in the West. The Spurs are 34-14-3 ATS in their last 51 games overall, 23-6-3 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

7* NBA on TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Suns -2
The Key: This is a game the Suns have to have as they sit a half game out of the final playoff spot in the West. They match up well with the Clippers and have won 2 of 3 against them this season as a result. Phoenix has won 9 in a row at home against the Clippers with those 9 wins coming by an average of 15.7 points. Expect the Suns to make it 10 in a row at home versus LAC.

6* Kings +4
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Spurs following a big win over the Lakers last night and with another showdown with the Lakers on deck. The Kings have had 2 full days of rest and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days' rest. I'll grab the points with the fresher side.

6* Nuggets -3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Clippers following a double-digit win over the Thunder. L.A. is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 contests following a victory of more than 10 points.

6* Raptors +10
The Key: Expect Miami to get caught looking ahead to tomorrow night's contest with the Bulls. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on 76ers -3
The Key: Philly dropped into an 8th-place tie with the Knicks in the East following Monday's 113-100 loss to Orlando. The 76ers allowed the Magic to shoot 53.3% in that game. Following that disappointing performance, and needing every win it can get down the stretch, I fully expect the 76ers to roll in their home finale. Philly is the No. 1 defensive team in the league, holding its foes to just 88.8 ppg. It also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage defense, holding its opponents to just 42.5% shooting. I'm confident Philadelphia will be very dialed in on the defensive end here. The 76ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Lay the points and best of luck.

6* Jazz -3.5
The Key: The Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Utah. The Jazz are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of less than 5.0 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of less than 5.0. Utah will be the much fresher team with Dallas playing its 4th game in 5 days.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets -4.5
The Key: Houston is 8-0 ATS at home this season when playing the 2nd game game of a back-to-back. It has won by an average score of 98.9 to 90.8 in these games. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points and the Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Houston knows it must get back on track here as its lead for the 8th position in the West is just 1 game. We'll lay the points.

6* Nets +8.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Miami after Sunday's Southeast Division clinching-win over the Knicks. The Heat are banged up and worn down and I expect them to give their starters plenty of rest down the stretch with the No. 1 seed in the East likely out of the equation. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win while the Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +9.5
The Key: The Pistons, who were crushed by Milwaukee last game, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games in the underdog role. Detroit has lost 6 straight home games to the Bulls but 4 of those losses have come by 7 points or fewer.

6* Suns +9.5
The Key Phoenix is 19-9 since Feb. 19 and has won six of its last eight. It is fighting hard to avoid missing the playoffs for the third time in four years. It will be further motivated here as it has lost the season's first two meetings with San Antonio. The Suns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings with the Spurs.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bucks -3
The Key: The Bucks are in must-win mode as they try to play their way into the final playoff spot in the East. As if that isn't enough motivation, they were embarrassed at home by Indiana last month. It's payback time. Both teams just played last night but the Bucks have been better in the 2nd game of back-to-backs. Indiana is just 11-28 ATS in its last 39 games when playing without a day of rest. Bet the Bucks.

6* T-Wolves +11.5
The Key: Minnesota always gets up for Oklahoma City. The T-Wolves have lost 11 in a row in the series but only one of those losses came by more than the number we have here. Plus, each of the last 7 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less.

6* Bucks -5
The Key: This is basically a must-win game for the Bucks as they try to remain in the hunt for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. They have played very well on the road of late, as evidenced by their 7-1 ATS mark in their last 8 away games, and they'll be very motivated following consecutive losses.

6* Pacers -11.5
The Key: With this big of a number the books clearly want the money on the Cavs, who have covered 5 straight and took Indiana to OT Wednesday. We won't oblige them. The Cavs have dropped 6 of their last 7 on the road with losses to the Magic, 76ers and Knicks during this stretch coming by 13, 18 and 16 points. The Pacers, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 at home with a pair of wins over the Heat and Thunder during this stretch. The win over the Heat came by 15 points.

6* Nets +11.5
The Key: The Nets were embarrassed by Philly Tuesday, enduring a 19-point loss. That loss is all the motivation they will need to give the 76ers a game this evening. The 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Nets are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Philadelphia.

6* Warriors +6.5
The Key: The Mavericks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record, 12-26-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings with the Warriors and 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings at Golden State. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 0 days rest.

6* Spurs -5.5
The Key: The Spurs are 18-6-3 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a defeat.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on T-Wolves +6.5
The Key: The Clippers have lost all 3 meetings with Minnesota, but, riding high off a big win over the Thunder, I expect them to look right past a T-Wolves squad that has lost 7 in a row and will be without Kevin Love. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Also, the Clippers are 13-30 ATS in their last 43 road games when out to avenge a close loss to an opponent of 3 points or less. They have lost by an average score of 101.8 to 92.1 in this situation. Take the T-Wolves.

6* Hawks +3
The Key: Expect a letdown from Boston following a huge win in Miami last night. The Celtics are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games when playing without a day of rest.

6* Clippers +8
The Key: The Clippers won the season's first meeting by 12 at home but were embarrassed to the tune of 114-91 in OKC last month. Expect the Clipps to save face tonight as they are a rock solid 33-20 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings on the road in this series, and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -5.5
The Key: Double revenge is the angle here as Memphis has lost both of this season's matchups with Phoenix. Both of those, however, came in Phoenix, and I'm expecting a much different result in Memphis tonight. The Grizz are on a terrific 52-31 ATS run when out for revenge for 2 consecutive losses to a foe.

6* NBA Bailout on Bulls -8.5
The Key: I fully expect Chicago to avenge Sunday's overtime loss to the Knicks. Under coach Thibodeau, the Bulls are 21-7 ATS off an upset loss. They are winning by an average of 10.4 points in this situation.

6* 76ers -5
The Key: The Nets are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 home games and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home underdog.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -7
The Key: Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival and up against an opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-7 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Expect Miami to avenge the 91-72 loss they endured at Boston in impressive fashion.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -3.5
The Key: The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points.

6* Nuggets -8
The Key: The Nuggets have won 13 of their last 15 at home against the Warriors with those 13 wins coming by an average of 13.6 points.

6* Timberwolves +3
The Key: The Suns, who lost at home to the T-Wolves last month, are 14-27 ATS when looking for revenge for a same season loss over the last 2 seasons.

6* Jazz +1
The Key: Duncan, Parker and Ginobli will likely sit this one out but I like Utah at home regardless. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road mark.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -4.5
The Key: The Grizzlies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points. Expect them to avenge their 2 earlier losses to the Clippers, both of which came in L.A., in impressive fashion.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +10
The Key: The Spurs are being overvalued following 10 straight wins and a 128-103 beatdown of New Orleans last game. The Spurs are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Plus, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Spurs have won 7 of the last 11 meetings in this series but only 2 of those wins have come by more than 10 points. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavs +4
The Key: System play. Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) playing the second game of a back-to-back in the month of April are 170-106 (62%) ATS since 1996. This system is 6-1 ATS already this season. Also, the Grizzlies are a terrible 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. The Mavericks are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a road underdog of less than 5.0 points.

6* Celtics +2
The Key: System play. Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) playing the second game of a back-to-back in the month of April are 170-106 (62%) ATS since 1996. This system is 6-1 ATS already this season. Also, Indiana is only 14-27 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back since the beginning of last season.

6* Hornets +11.5
The Key: The Hornets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Grizzlies +7.5
The Key: Memphis is 20-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons, including 12-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. It has won by an average of 3.2 points in this situation. Look for the Grizzlies to take Miami right down to the wire.

6* Thunder -3.5
The Key: The Thunder are 55-25-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards +8
The Key: This is a system play on the Wizards. Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team playing 9 or more games in 14 days, are 39-14 (74%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are only losing by an average of 0.6 points. Also, the Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Washington.

6* Mavs -6
The Key: The Mavericks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when listed as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

6* Cavs +11.5
The Key: The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater while the Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater.