Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -8

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are finally fully healthy and playing up to their potential now.  They have won their last two games by double-digits over both Portland (132-120) and New York (127-114).  I think they make it 3 straight double-digits wins against a Dallas Mavericks team in a bad spot tonight.  The Mavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They have plenty of injuries and are short-handed, making this spot even tougher.  Plus they have to play in the altitude in Denver tonight, only worsening matters further.  I don't expect much of an effort from them here tonight.  The Nuggets are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Denver is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take Denver. 

6* Stanford/SMU ESPN 2 *CA$H COW* on SMU -7

The Key: The SMU Mustangs have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They have gone 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 21.9 points per game along the way.  That includes a recent 74-59 win over TCU, which is better than this Stanford outfit.  Stanford has only played one true road game all season.  It has been owned by the better teams it has faced like SMU, losing by 14 to Miami, by 15 to St. Mary's and by 15 to Kansas.  The Cardinal are 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the past 3 seasons.  The Cardinal are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.  Stanford is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a road dog of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take SMU.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers -2.5

The Key: I like this spot for the 76ers, who will only be playing their 4th game in 10 days.  They are rested and just returned Nerlens Noel to the lineup last time out against the Lakers, though he only played 8 minutes and voiced his frustration.  After he and coach Brett Brown hashed things out, I expect a big performance from Noel here.  He and Joel Embiid will dominate the paint in what will be a sign of things to come for years moving forward.  This is a very winnable game for the 76ers against the Brooklyn Nets, who are just 7-18 on the season, including 1-11 in road games.  They are giving up a ridiculous 118.5 points per game on the road this year.  The Nets are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 road games.  The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The 76ers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Gonzaga/Tennessee NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +10.5

The Key: This will basically be a home game for the Tennessee Vols as it will be played in Nashville.  The Vols come in playing their best ball of the season, going 5-1 in their last 6 games overall with their only loss coming at North Carolina 71-73 as 19.5-point dogs.  That effort alone showed their potential.  But they also have a 23-point win over Georgia Tech during this stretch, and four of the five wins have come by 14 points or more.  Gonzaga is getting a lot of love because of its 10-0 record this season, but it has yet to play a true road game, and this will be the closest thing to it that the Bulldogs have faced all year.  Gonzaga is 15-33 ATS in its last 48 road games off 2 straight home wins by 10 points or more.  The Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. SEC opponents.  The Volunteers are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games as a home underdog.  Tennessee is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  Take Tennessee.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Lakers +16

The Key: The Lakers finally ended an 8-game losing streak that prompted Luke Walton to call his players 'soft' heading into the Philadelphia game last night.  His players responded well with a 100-89 road win over the 76ers.  Now the Lakers will be amped up for a showdown with the defending champion Cavaliers, who are laying too many points here with this 16-point spread.  The Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season, and they have the depth to play well again despite this being the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Cleveland is 2-12 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of its last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  Bets on underdogs who have failed to cover 12 or more of their last 15 against opponent who covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread coming in are 81-38 ATS since 1996.  Take Los Angeles.

6* UNC/Kentucky NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -1

The Key: Kentucky is 9-1 this season with its only loss to UCLA, which may be the best team in the country.  I think the Wildcats are the better team here against North Carolina, which comes in playing suspect basketball.  The Tar Heels lost 67-76 at Indiana a few weeks ago.  And their last two home games have been lackluster.  They only beat Davidson 83-74 as 16.5-point favorites, and needed a big second-half comeback to beat Tennessee 73-71 as 19.5-point favorites.  They have been without guard Joel Berry II the past two games, which explains part of the struggles, and he's questionable to return against Kentucky here.  The Wildcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Kentucky is 19-7 in its last 26 vs a team with a winning record.  The Wildcats are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Kentucky.

6* Long Beach/Oregon State NCAAB *BAILOUT* on Long Beach State -4.5

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are one of the worst power-5 teams in college basketball this season.  They lost Gary Payton Jr. from last year's roster, who was their best player.  Now they are without their best player on this year's roster in coach's son Tres Tinkle.  The Beavers are 3-7 on the season with their three wins coming against Prairie View A&M, UTSA and Southern Oregon.  They just lost at home to Savannah State 90-93 as 19-point favorites to really show you how far they've fallen.  Savannah State has been getting blown out by everyone.  Long Beach has played the toughest schedule in the country with games against Wichita State, UNC, Louisville, UCLA, Washington, Kansas and Texas already.  They only lost 65-71 at Texas last time out and are battle-tested.  This is a break in the schedule here against the Beavers, one the 49ers will take advantage of.  Oregon State is 2-15 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last 3 seasons.  The Beavers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.  The 49ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.   Take Long Beach State.

7* NBA *Situational* Game of the Month on Chicago Bulls -5

The Key: I like this situation here for the Chicago Bulls.  They lost 97-108 in Milwaukee last night.  Fortunately, they only have to wait 24 hours for their chance at revenge.  And they get the Bucks at home tonight.  Look for a hungry effort from them to get the win and cover here.  The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.  Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with the Bucks.  Take Chicago.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The Key: The Pelicans are in a great situation here.  They are getting healthier and nearly beat the Warriors on Tuesday at home.  Now I expect them to beat a gassed Indiana Pacers team here tonight.  The Pacers are on the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They lost in Miami last night, and they'll lose in New Orleans tonight.  The Pacers are just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS on the road this year.  They are allowing 113.6 PPG away from home on the season.  Indiana is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 Thursday games.  Take New Orleans.

6* Thursday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on George Washington -3

The Key: UCF just lost its best player in BJ Taylor.  He is the Knights' leading scorer (16.0 PPG) and assist (5.0 APG) man this season, so his loss is huge.  The Knights have been without him their last two games.  They beat lowly MD-East Shore, but lost 49-58 at home to Pennsylvania as 10-point favorites last time out.  George Washington is playing very well going 4-1 in its last 5 games overall.  The Colonials beat Harvard 77-74 as 3-point road dogs.  They also won 66-63 at Temple as 9-point dogs.  Their only loss came to a very good Florida State team in which they were playing their 2nd game in 2 days, while the Seminoles were not.  Take George Washington.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are getting healthier and starting to play a lot more competitive basketball.  They are coming off a 20-point home win over the Denver Nuggets.  They have gone 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  They are lacking respect from oddsmakers tonight once again as 5.5-point dogs.  Detroit should not be favored in this game after losing 79-97 to the 76ers last time out.  The Pistons also shouldn't be favored considering they are 5-9 SU & 5-9 ATS on the road this season.  The Mavs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Dallas.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Saint Louis +11

The Key: It was going to take some time for Saint Louis to gel in Travis Ford's first season on the job.  And it didn't help that they played a brutal schedule to open the season and currently sit with a 3-6 record because of it.  They have losses to the likes of BYU, Alabama, Kansas State and Wichita State.  But that has them battle tested, and now they take a big step down in class against 5-5 Southern Illinois, which just lost 73-79 at home to Sam Houston State.  The Salukis only have two wins this season by this margin, and those were against Missouri Southern State and SIU Edwardsville.  This is a team that also lost at home to Wright State earlier this season.  Southern Illinois is 2-10 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons.  The Billikens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.  The Salukis are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Saint Louis.

6* Thunder/Blazers ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers put a lot into their game against the Clippers last night.  They wound up losing 120-121 in an absolute shootout.  Now the Blazers are gassed as they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days here.  That fatigue has clealry shown as the Blazers have lost 4 straight coming in.  The Thunder are rested and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  And the Thunder are playing very well, going 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  The Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee Tech +16

The Key: I don't expect Tennessee to show up for this game at all.  The Volunteers are coming off a crushing 71-73 loss at North Carolina on Sunday after blowing a big lead in the second half.  After playing a national power like the Tar Heels just two days ago, the Vols will come out flat here tonight against Tennessee Tech.  Tennessee Tech has only lost one game by more than 15 points this season despite their 4-7 overall record.  The Vols are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after covering five straight and playing UNC tough.  Tennessee is 5-19 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.  Tennessee Tech only lost 58-61 as 13-point dogs in its last trip to Tennessee.  Take Tennessee Tech.

6* Monday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Bucks/Raptors UNDER 212

The Key: Just looking at the head-to-head history between the Bucks and Raptors shows that the books have inflated this 212-point total.  Each of the last 13 meetings between Toronto and Milwaukee have seen 210 or fewer combined points.  That equates to a 13-0 angle backing the UNDER in this game.  You have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time they combined for more than 212 points.  Take the UNDER.

6* Sunday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Celtics/Thunder UNDER 207

The Key: The Celtics are without Isaiah Thomas right now and it really makes them a much less efficient offensive team.  That was evident last time out as they scored just 94 points on 37.3% shooting against the Raptors.  It does make the Celtics a better defensive team without him in there because elite PG defender Marcus Smart has to play more minutes.  The Celtics only allowed 87 points and 37% shooting to the Magic and 101 points and 41.5% shooting to the Raptors in their last two games without Thomas.  Smart should make things difficult for Russell Westbrook, just at Patrick Beverly did on Friday when the Rockets beat the Thunder 102-99.  The UNDER is 22-7 in Celtics last 29 games playing on 1 days rest.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 vs. Western Conference.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Northern Illinois +15

The Key: This is all about scheduling for me.  Minnesota should not be a 15-point favorite over Northern Illinois considering the disadvantage it has on its hands with the schedule coming in.  Minnesota just played Georgia Southern on Friday, meaning it has had only one day to get ready for Northern Illinois.  The Golden Gophers will also be playing their 4th game in a span of 9 days here.  Northern Illinois hasn't played since November 30th, having 10 days off in between games.  The Huskies will certainly be prepared to face Minnesota.  They are capable of hanging with the Gophers even without this scheduling advantage.  They are just 4-4 this season, but their 4 losses have come by 2, 4, 5 and 11 points.  Minnesota only beat lowly New Jersey Tech by 6 as 18-point favorites on December 6th.  The Huskies are a much better outfit than New Jersey Tech.  Northern Illinois is 72-45 ATS in its last 127 games as a dog of 10 points or more.  The Huskies are 34-12 ATS int heir last 46 road games after scoring 55 points or fewer.  Take Northern Illinois.

6* Michigan/UCLA ESPN 2 National TV *Annihilator* on UCLA -8.5

The Key: UCLA has been the most impressive team in the country in my opinion during its 9-0 start.  The Bruins are scoring 97.0 points per game and their talent can match anyone in the nation.  That was evident in a 97-92 win at Kentucky as 10.5-point dogs last Saturday.  Normally this would be a letdown spot after such a big win, but not with a team like Michigan visiting Pauley Pavilion.  And the Bruins have had a full week to prepare for the Wolverines, which is a huge advantage.  Michigan just beat a down Texas team 53-50 as 10-point home favorites on Tuesday and hasn't had as much time to prepare.  The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall as they've been undervalued all season.  Michigan is 0-7 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The Wolverines are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Bruins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Bruins are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take UCLA.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -4

The Key: John Wall called out his teammates for their lack of effort following a 116-124 home loss to Orlando on Tuesday in which Wall scored 52 points, yet they still lost.  These players seemed to respond well, allowing a season-low 85 points to the Nuggets on Thursday in a 92-85 victory.  I look for them to build some momentum here with another win and cover as 4-point favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks are in a much tougher spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 110-114 home loss to Atlanta last night.  The Bucks have only played 7 road games all season and have gone 3-4, scoring just 94.7 points per game on the highway this year.  Milwaukee is 4-16 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  The bucks are 7-21 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  The Wizards have won 7 of their last 9 meetings with the Bucks, including 4 straight home meetings all by an average of 14.5 points per game.  Take Washington.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland Trail Blazers -1

The Key: We'll fade the Indiana Pacers tonight because they are a very tired team.  They are coming off a 5-game road trip that concluded with a 103-111 loss at Dallas last night.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days now.  After blowing a big lead at Memphis on Thursday to lose by 2, the Blazers will come back hungry here for a win.  Indiana is 3-13 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  The Pacers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, winning by 22, 9, 13 and 10 points.  They are 5-0 straight up in the last 5 meetings as well.  Take Portland.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Key: We're going to fade the Toronto Raptors tonight in this tough spot for them.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  They just beat the Timberwolves 124-110 at home last night.  But now they have to go on the road and take on a very tough Boston Celtics team that is coming off a 117-87 road win at Orlando despite playing without Isaiah Thomas.  They will likely be without Thomas again, and that's the reason they are only 1.5-point favorites here, which has only added to the value.  Bets against any team in a game involving two teams who score at least 102 points per game, after scoring 110 points or more in 4 straight games are 36-12 ATS since 1996.  The Raptors are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 trips to Boston.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Boston.

6* Spurs/Bulls TNT National TV *Annihilator* on Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are getting way too much credit from oddsmakers because of their 13-0 road record this season.  But the Bulls are the value play here because they have lost 3 straight coming in and will be hungry for a victory and to end this Spurs streak.  The Bulls have actually won their last 2 home meetings with the Spurs outright as underdogs, winning 92-89 as 4.5-point dogs last year, and 104-81 as 5.5-point dogs the year before.  The Spurs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday games.  The Bulls are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 Thursday games.  The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Chicago.

6* Thursday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Middle Tennessee -2

The Key: Middle Tennessee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This is a squad that went 25-10 last year and upset No. 2 Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament.  They brought back their top two scorers from that team in Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw.  Now they're off to an 8-1 start this season which includes wins over Toledo (twice), Evansville and a 77-62 road win at Ole Miss, which was their most impressive win yet.  Vanderbilt is in a rebuilding phase in the 1st year of Bryce Drew after losing its two best players to the NBA.  The Commodores are 5-4 this season with losses to Marquette, Bucknell, Butler and Minnesota.  The Commodores are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.  The Blue Raiders are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Middle Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.  Take Middle Tennessee.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta Hawks -8.5

The Key: There's a good reason the Atlanta Hawks are favored by 8.5 tonight despite losing 7 straight and 10 of their last 11 overall.  It's because they will be hungry for a victory to end the skid, and they are fully healthy now, which wasn't the case during the losing streak.  And also because the Miami Heat are not healthy and in a tough spot.  The Heat are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after losing at home to the Knicks 103-114 last night.  They are expected to be without several key players in Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Luke Babbitt, James Johnson, Dion Waiters and Chris Bosh.  The Hawks are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 home games following 5 or more straight losses.  Take Atlanta.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Temple -8.5

The Key: The Temple Owls have been one of the most impressive teams in the country in the early going.  They are 6-2 on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 8 points.  They have outright wins as underdogs over Florida State as 10-point dogs, West Virginia as 12.5-point dogs and St. Joe's as 1.5-point dogs.  George Washington is clearly down this season as it lost a lot of talent from last year.  The Colonials are just 5-4 SU & 1-6 ATS on the season.  They just lost to Florida State by 21 points in their last game, giving these teams a common opponent.  And the Colonials are tired right now as this will be their 3rd game in 5 days.  The Owls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  TheOwls are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Temple.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston Celtics PK

The Key: The Orlando Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here and their 5th game in 7 days.  That's one of the toughest situations you will find in the NBA.  The Boston Celtics should take advantage here despite likely being without the services of Isaiah Thomas.  The Magic won't have anything left in the tank here, especially after playing in a 124-116 shootout in Washington last night.  The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Orlando is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 Wednesday games.  Take Boston.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 97-96 win in Milwaukee last night kept their road record a perfect 12-0 on the season.  But I believe that perfect record comes to an end tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have had 2 days off since beating the Hornets in overtime on Saturday.  I'll take these young rested Timberwolves against the veteran Spurs on no rest every time.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a team with a winning percentage below .500.  Take Minnesota.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Wisconsin-Green Bay +7

The Key: Wisconsin-Green Bay and Central Michigan just played less than two weeks ago on November 26th.  The Chippewas won 89-77 as 5-point road underdogs over the Phoenix.  Now it's time for the Phoenix to return the favor and win on Central Michigan's home court as 7-point dogs in the rematch.  The Chippewas made 14-of-36 from 3-point range in the first meeting, and that's not going to happen again.  The Phoenix will make the proper adjustments here and will clearly be the more hungry team.  Green Bay is 50-23 ATS in its last 73 when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last 2 seasons.  The Phoenix are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Chippewas are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Take Green Bay.

6* Tuesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on California -2

The Key: There is a huge talent gap here between California and Princeton.  The Golden Bears should be much bigger than 2-point favorites in this game as a result.  But the reason they aren't is because despite the fact that they are 6-1 straight up, they are just 1-6 ATS this season.  So bettors have been burnt by them all season.  However, they were a double-digit favorite in 6 of those 7 games, and this 2-point spread is by far the smallest price on the Golden Bears yet this season.  It's time to back them while they are undervalued.  Princeton already has road losses to BYU, Lehigh and VCU and won't be able to compete with Cal here, either.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.  Take California.

6* Monday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Montana State -8

The Key: The Montana State Bobcats are a team on the rise as they are in their 3rd year under Brian Fish.  They returned 3 starters from last year, including sophomore sensation Tyler Hall, who averaged 19.2 points as a freshman.  Hall has picked up where he left off with 22.6 points per game this season.  Zach Green (12.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Quinton Everett (9.9 PPG) are the other returning starters.  Harald Frey (11.0 PPG, 4.8 APG) was a big catch for Fish this offseason.  The Bobcats boast elite shooters as they are averaging 11 made 3-pointers per game at a 39.8% clip.  Montana State is 5-0 at home this season.  Wisconsin-Milwaukee had to break in 5 new starters this year and is clearly down.  It is just 1-5 on the road this year, losing to Memphis by 14, DePaul by 18, East Tennessee State by 24 and South Dakota State by 23.  Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off a 69-75 loss at Montana on Saturday and has only had one day to prepare for Montana State.  The Bobcats have had three days off since a loss to Utah on Thursday.  The Bobcats' only three losses this season have all come on the road, but they were competitive in each one as they lost by 4 at Washington State as 10-point dogs, by 5 at Rice as 10.5-point dogs and by 8 at Utah as 17-point dogs.  The Bobcats are 8-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  Milwaukee is 3-14 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts over the last 3 years.  Take Montana State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston Celtics +5.5

The Key: This is a great situation to fade the Houston Rockets.  They are coming off a 4-1 road trip and this will be their first game back home.  Players get distracted with duties at home in their first game back from a long road trip. We saw that last night with the Clippers losing outright to the Pacers as 12.5-point favorites (we had the Pacers) as they returned from a long trip themselves.  I think the Celtics win this game outright as they catch the Rockets in a flat spot, especially off back-to-back road wins over the Warriors and Nuggets.  The road team is 4-1 SU in the last 5 meetings, including a 111-95 Celtics win as 4.5-point dogs in Houston last season.  The Celtics are 18-4 ATS in road games vs. teams who score at least 103 points per game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days rest.  Take Boston.

6* Pacers/Clippers NBA *BAILOUT* on Indiana +12.5

The Key: I always like fading teams off a long road trip in their first game back home.  The Los Angeles Clippers just completed a 6-game road trip with back-to-back wins over the Cavs and Pelicans on consecutive nights.  Now they've only been home for one day, and players usually have a bunch of family priorities when they get back from these long trips.  Their focus isn't on basketball.  The Clippers are going to need to be focused to cover this huge 12.5-point spread against the Pacers.  The Pacers will be fresh and ready to go as they're working on 3 days rest right now having last played on Wednesday.  Indiana is 21-7 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.  The Pacers are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.  Take Indiana.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bowling Green +20

The Key: This is a perfect situation to fade the Cincinnati Bearcats.  I expect them to be flat in this spot Sunday against Bowling Green.  They went on the road and beat Iowa State in overtime on Thursday night.  They play Butler this coming weekend in their next game.  They could care less about blowing out Bowling Green tonight with this game being in between both of those two huge contests.  I look for the Falcons to take them right down to the wire.  The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after playing their previous 2 games at home.  They haven't lost by more than 16 points this season.  Take Bowling Green.

6* Suns/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +16

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are once again catching too many points against the Golden State Warriors.  The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Warriors, losing all 4 meetings by 8, 7, 6 and 13 points.  They have already faced the Warriors twice this season, so it's not like Golden State is going to be all that motivated to beat them for a 3rd time.  And it's going to take a motivated Warriors team to cover this massive 16-point spread.  The Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Phoenix.

6* Gonzaga/Arizona ESPN *CA$H COW* on Gonzaga -4.5

The Key: Gonzaga wants this one badly.  Arizona has beaten Gonzaga in all 3 meetings each of the past 3 seasons, including a 68-63 win in the 2014 NCAA Tournament.  "Like I said, we've got something for them. Send a message Saturday," Gonzaga guard Josh Perkins said after a 97-63 home victory over Mississippi Valley State improved the Bulldogs to 7-0 on Thursday night. "We feel like we owe them some payback. It's been some years building up. Saturday's a time for us to get back at them."  There chances at revenge are good.  Arizona is expected to have only seven available scholarship players after the team's latest injury.  Starting point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright suffered a high ankle sprain Wednesday in a win over Texas Southern, with coach Sean Miller saying the junior would be out for a "considerable" period of time. Arizona previously lost two players to torn ACLs, an incoming freshman turned pro and sophomore guard Allonzo Trier, the team's top returning scorer at 14.8 points per game, hasn't played yet because of unspecified eligibility issues. It's no surprise the Wildcats are struggling early with narrow wins over Michigan State, CS-Bakersfield and Santa Clara, as well as a loss to Butler.  Take Gonzaga.

6* Rockets/Nuggets ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Denver -4

The Key: The Rockets just played a double-OT thriller in Golden State last night and pulled off the upset as double-digit underdogs.  They aren't going to have much left to give tonight here on the road against the Denver Nuggets a night later.  While Houston should have an off game because of the circumstances, Denver should be primed for once of its best games of the season as it will be excited to play on National TV on ESPN.  Plus the Nuggets have lost 3 of their last 4 and need a win here.  Denver has won 3 straight meetings with Houston while covering the spread in all three.  The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 105 points in 5 straight games coming in.  Take Denver.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a huge road win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.  Now they're in a prime letdown spot here against the New Orleans Pelicans, and they're a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing in double-OT to Brooklyn on Tuesday as well.  The Pelicans are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS since Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup.  Four of those wins have come by 12 points or more as well.  They are playing their best ball of the season and are primed to upset the Clippers here, especially since they've had 2 days off in between games.  New Orleans is 26-12 ATS as a home dog over the last 3 seasons.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Clippers are 10-24 ATS in the last 34 meetings and 5-16 ATS in the last 21 road meetings.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 games overall against a brutal schedule where 7 of the 8 games were on the road.  It's safe to say they're happy to return home tonight, where they are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS and winning by 6.5 points per game.  They get to face a terrible road team in the Pistons, who are 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS on the road this season and losing by 7.1 points per game.  The Pistons are coming off back-to-back road wins, which is rare for them and has them overvalued now.  The chances of them winning 3 straight on the highway are slim to none, especially against a hungry team like the Hawks.  Bets against any team off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog; tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 28-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Atlanta.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on SIU-Edwardsville +26

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers are primed for a letdown tonight.  They are coming off a 76-67 home win over North Carolina on Wednesday just two days ago.  They won't give the same kind of effort they gave in that one as they probably just feel like they need to show up to win tonight against SIU-Edwardsville.  We saw this same effect after Indiana beat Kansas in its season opener.  It came back flat the next game and only beat UMass-Lowell 100-78 while failing to cover as 28.5-point favorites.  SIU-Edwardsville is a decent team that is 4-3 this season with three outright wins as underdogs against Hawaii, FAU and IUPUI.  It also picked up a big 76-64 road win at Grand Canyon last time out and has had 3 days off since to prepare for the Hoosiers.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater.  The Hoosiers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  SIU-Edwardsville is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after playing 5 consecutive games as an underdog.  Indiana is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS win.  Take SIU-Edwardsville.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz -9.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have won 4 straight games by an average of 20 points per game.  Look for their domination to continue tonight against the Miami Heat.  The Heat are running on fumes right now as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are also dealing with some injuries, and after playing in the altitude last night in Denver, they won't have a whole lot left to give tonight.  The Jazz are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Heat at 12-27 ATS in their last 39 following a road win.  Take Utah.

7* Clippers/Cavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 215.5

The Key: This is a battle between two of the best teams in the NBA.  Both squads will be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.  The Clippers are coming off 3 straight losses, while the Cavs are coming off an upset loss to the Bucks where both teams didn't play well defensively.  That will be the focus heading into tonight's game.  The Clippers rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  Clippers games have averaged roughly 207 combined points per game while Cavs games have averaged roughly 214.  I think there's some value with the UNDER tonight.  Bets on the UNDER in a game involving 2 very good teams who outscore their opponents by 7-plus points per game after a combined score of 205 points or more are 43-13 over the last 5 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* Wednesday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Spurs/Mavs UNDER 189.5

The Key: We have two of the slowest teams in the NBA matching up tonight in the Spurs and Mavs.  The Mavs rank 29th in the NBA in pace this season while the Spurs are 27th.  The Mavs haven't done much with those few possessions as they also rank 28th in offensive efficiency.  The Spurs have beaten the Mavs 96-91 in consecutive meetings for 187 combined points in each.  The most recent was on November 21st just over a week ago, so these teams are familiar with one another.  And I can't see them getting to 190 combined points here, which is what it would take to top this 189.5-point total.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Spurs last 11 vs. NBA Northwester Division opponents.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 home games.  Take the UNDER.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Rutgers +15

The Key: Rutgers is off to a 6-0 start this season, yet continues to get no respect from the books here as 15-point dogs to the Miami Hurricanes.  I realize that the Scarlet Knights have played a soft schedule, but they are certainly way improved this year as they returned three players who averaged at least 12.3 PPG last season.  And it's clear that Miami is taking a big step back this year.  That was evident in blowout losses to Iowa State (56-73) and Florida (56-65) over the weekend.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Hurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Rutgers.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons +3

The Key: The Detroit Pistons have owned up to their road woes as they are just 1-8 away from home this season.  They realize it's a problem if they want to be a playoff contender, and look for them to tackle it head-on tonight.  There's every reason they should win this game against Charlotte.  The Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, one of the toughest situations you'll find in the NBA.  I expect a pretty weak effort from them here tonight as they just don't have much left to give.  The Pistons come in on 2 days' rest after last playing on Saturday.  This is a huge scheduling advantage that they must capitalize on tonight.  Take Detroit.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on North Dakota State +18

The Key: North Dakota State has been one of the best small school programs in the country throughout the years.  They nearly made their 3rd straight NCAA Tournament appearance last season, falling just short with a loss to rival South Dakota State in the Summit League Championship Game.  They brought back 4 starters from that team and 3 key reserves who all averaged at least 6.3 points per game last year.  They're 5-2 this season thus far and looking to hang with a Top 25 program like Xavier.  I think this is a bad spot for Xavier,  After playing Missouri, Clemson, and Northern Iowa (twice) in their last 4 games, and with huge road games against both Baylor and Colorado on deck, this could be a sandwich game for the Musketeers.  I don't expect them to bring the kind of effort it's going to take to beat this solid NDSU outfit by more than 18 points tonight.  The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Summit League foes.  Take North Dakota State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Charlotte Hornets -1

The Key: The Charlotte Hornets opened as 2.5-point dogs and are now 1-point favorites.  I completely agree with this move as they should beat the Memphis Grizzlies.  They'll be out for revenge from a home loss to the Grizzlies on November 21st exactly one week ago today.  And they should be able to get it because they are nearly 100% healthy, while the Grizzlies are battling several key injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Chandler Parsons and James Ennis, and they are also without the best 6th man in the NBA in Zach Randolph.  I can't see the Grizzlies even being competitive tonight this short-handed.  Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Charlotte.

6* ASU/Kentucky ESPN 2 *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -16.5

The Key: Somehow the Kentucky Wildcats continue to be undervalued.  This is a team that gets a lot of public support but the books haven't been able to set their numbers high enough.  The Wildcats have covered 4 straight games and have won all 6 games by 21 or more points during their 6-0 start, including a 21-point win over Michigan State as 6.5-point favorites.  Arizona State isn't going to break this streak today.  The Sun Devils are clearly down this season as they are 4-2 SU but 1-4-1 ATS.  ASU lost to Northern Iowa 63-82 and Davidson 60-68 on neutral courts.  Those two results alone show that the Sun Devils aren't going to be able to hang with one of the top teams in the country here.  ASU is 8-20 ATS after winning 2 of its last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Kentucky is 9-2 ATS off a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 2 years.  The Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Wildcats are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite.  The Sun Devils are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.  Take Kentucky.

6* NBA Dog of the Week on Indiana Pacers +10

The Key: The Indiana Pacers should not be catching double-digits at home to the Los Angeles Clippers today.  The Clippers are overrated right now because they have the best record in the NBA.  Bets on underdogs of 10 or more points after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in thier last 3 games, with a winning percentage between 40% & 49% on the season are 25-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Indiana.

6* Iowa State/Gonzaga NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +4

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones are a legit Top 25 team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament because they have tremendous guard play across the board.  They came through with their most complete performance of the season last time out in a 73-56 win over Miami.  Now they're up against a Gonzaga team that isn't as strong as last year despite the 5-0 start against week competition.  The Bulldogs beat Florida 77-72 last time out, and Iowa State is better than Florida.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.  The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bulldogs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.  Take Iowa State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Key: This line has been bet down from -6.5 to -3.5 and I feel that we are now getting the right price to back the Thunder.  I get the move because the Thunder played on overtime game last night against the Nuggets.  But they showed a lot of fight in that game to end a 3-game losing streak.  And now they'll want revenge from an 88-104 loss in Detroit back on November 14th just less than 3 weeks ago.  They were in a bad spot there as they were on a back-to-back while the Pistons were not.  And the Pistons also played yesterday in a 108-97 home win over the Clippers, so it's not like they'll be much fresher than the Thunder here.  They'll be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  And they could have a letdown off such a big win over the Clippers, plus the fact that they've already beaten the Thunder once this season.  And the Pistons have been a terrible road game, going 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS on the highway this season while losing by 11.3 points per game.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* Providence/Virginia Emerald Coast Classic *CA$H COW* on Virginia -13

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers are clearly one of the best teams in the country this season.  They haven't even been letting their opponents come up for air.  They have won each of their first 5 games by at least 24 points.  None were more impressive than their 74-41 win over Iowa yesterday.  Their suffocating defense is only giving up 39.2 points and 29.3% shooting this season.  Providence is in rebuild mode after losing its two best players from last year in Ben Bentil (21.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG) and Kris Dunn (16.4 PPG, 6.2 APG, 5.3 RPG).  The Friars erased a double-digit deficit yesterday to beat a down Memphis team 60-51.  But they won't have much success here against this Virginia defense because they don't shoot the ball very well, especially from 3-point range, and the Cavaliers force you to shoot from outside with their pack line defense.  The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  Virginia is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Providence -2

The Key: Providence has been impressive in its two toughest games this season to show what it is capable of.  In the opener it beat a very good Vermont team that is likely headed to the NCAA Tournament 80-58 as only 4.5-point home favorites.  Then it traveled to Ohio State and only lost 67-72 as 6.5-point road dogs.  Memphis is starting over with first-year head coach Tubby Smith.  The Tigers are 4-0, but they haven't played anyone as their four opponents have been UTRGV, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Savannah State and McNeese State, all at home.  I like the fact that the Friars are battle-tested here having played two tough opponents already, while the Tigers don't have the same luxury, and this will be the first road game for Memphis.  Providence is 8-0 ATS away from home when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.  Memphis is 7-17 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 years.  Take Providence.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Key: This is a very nice price for the Detroit Pistons at home tonight.  They have had one of the more underrated home-court advantages over the past few seasons.  They are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season with their only two losses coming to Boston (92-94) and Houston (96-99) by a combined 5 points.  They are actually outscoring opponents by 13.1 points per game at home this year.  The Los Angeles Clippers are getting too much respect from the books now after their NBA-best 14-2 start to the season.  The Clippers are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Pistons are 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss where they scored 85 points or fewer over the last 3 seasons.  The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Detroit.

6* Thursday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech -5

The Key: Virginia Tech came out of nowhere to finish 6th in the loaded ACC last season.  Buzz Williams has this Hokie basketball program on the rise and flying under the radar once again this season.  He returns 3 starters this season, including each of his top two scorers in Zach LeDay (15.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG last season) and Seth Allen (14.4 PPG).  It's no surprise that both LeDay (18.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG this season) and Allen (13.3 PPG) are leading the team in scoring once again this season.  But they are getting plenty of held as they have 5 other players averaging at least 8.7 points per game.  New Mexico only beat Idaho State by 11, Houston Baptist by 16 and New Mexico State by 13 in its first 3 games this season and appears down a notch this year.  The Lobos simply aren't as good away from home, where they have one of the best advantages in the country.  New Mexico is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games.  Virginia Tech is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  The Hokies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Thunder/Kings Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Sacramento -2.5

The Key: The wheels have fallen off in Oklahoma City.  The Thunder are 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  This is a tired team right now as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  The Sacramento Kings are rested as they have had 2 days off and will be playing just their 4th game in 12 days.  They only lost by 5 to the Spurs, by 6 to the Clippers and beat the Raptors by 3 in their last three contests, which are three of the best teams in the NBA.  The Thunder are 3-15 ATS in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Oklahoma City is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games.  The Kings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Sacramento.

7* NCAAB Wednesday Night *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -7

The Key: The Houston Cougars took a big leap forward last season in Kelvin Sampson's second year.  They went 22-10 and are going to make a run at the NCAA Tournametn this season with 3 starters back, including Damyean Dotson (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Rob Gray Jr (16.0 PPG) and Galen Robinson Jr (7.9 PPG, 3.4 APG).  The Cougars are 4-0 this season and winning by 29.2 points per game.  They covered easily in their two games with point spreads, beating George Mason 93-56 as 12-point favorites and South Dakota 85-58 as 13.5-point favorites.  Vermont is off to a 5-1 start but overvalued as its loss came by 22 points as 4.5-point dogs to a down Providence team.  The five wins have come against Quinnipiac, Marist (by 4), Wofford (by 1) and Hofstra.  The Catamounts are outclassed here.  Vermont is 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 games following a win.  The Cougars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Sampson is 11-1 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in 2 straight games in all games he has coached.  Take Houston.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5

The Key: I think we're actually getting a discount on the Cleveland Cavaliers for once because they have gone 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But Lebron James returned to the lineup last time out, and they rolled the Pistons 104-81 at home.  That was five days ago as they have had four days off in between games.  They will be primed for a big performance tonight.  The Blazers are running on fumes right now as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They have gone 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games, and they are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as they have been consistently overvalued.  Portland is 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams who score 99-plus points per game this season.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Cleveland.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks -8.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have lost two straight road games to the Hornets and Knicks to fall to 9-4 on the season.  It's safe to say they will be very hungry for a win tonight to get back on track.  The opposite is true for the Pelicans, who are coming off two straight home wins over the Blazers and Hornets to get to 4-10 on the season.  Now the Pelicans hit the road where they are 1-5 and losing by 7.3 points per game.  The Hawks are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.0 points per game.  Take Atlanta.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +4

The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats won 20 regular-season games for the first time in school history last year.  They  returned G Bryant McIntosh, who averaged 13.8 points and finished 9th in the nation in assists at 6.7 per game.  Forward Aaron Falzon is back after nailing 63 3-pointers as a freshman last year.  Forward Vic Law missed last season because of a shoulder injury, but he's back after averaging 7 points and 4.8 rebounds while shooting 35.5 percent from 3-point range as a freshman in 2014-15.  Northwestern is 3-1 this season with a 31-point win over Miss Valley State, a 14-point win over Eastern Washington, a 2-point loss as 7.5-point dogs at Butler, and a dominant 19-point win over Texas yesterday as 3-point dogs.  I like the value here with the Wildcats as I feel they are a better team than Notre Dame this year and will win outright.  Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game over the last 3 seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.  Take Northwestern.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix Suns +8

The Key: The Washington Wizards have only one win by 8 points or more this season in 12 games.  I like the Suns for that reason alone.  Plus the Suns have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Washington.  They haven't lost to the Wizards by more than 7 points in any of their last 6 meetings.  The Suns are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss, and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Take Phoenix.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Georgia -4

The Key: The Georgia Bulldogs have won 20-plus games in 3 consecutive seasons.  They are loaded with talent this year.  Guard J.J. Frazier is the SEC's leading returning scorer at 16.9 points per game.  Forward Yante Mate is the SEC's third-leading returning score at 16.5 points per game, and its second-leading returning rebounds are 8.0 boards per game.  George Washington won the NIT last year, but lost 3 starters from that team that combined to average 35 points per game.  The Colonials are 3-0 this season but all 3 games were at home, and they barely beat both Siena (77-75) and MD-East Shore (75-71).  This team is clearly rebuilding now.  Georgia is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who outrebound their opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last 3 seasons.  George Washington is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. SEC opponents.  Take Georgia.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -3.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have been one of the more underrated teams in the NBA as they are 8-4 ATS in their 12 games this season.  They had yesterday off following an OT loss to the Raptors, and they'll be hungry to bounce back and get a win at home against the Jazz.  And the Jazz have been overvalued, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games.  They are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now as starters George Hill and Derrick Favors are out, while key role player Boris Diaw is questionable.  Now the Jazz are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a run-and-gun 102-111 loss at Houston last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Nuggets, who also like the push the pace like Houston.  The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Denver.

6* Northern Iowa/Xavier NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Xavier -4.5

The Key: Xavier is 4-0 this season and ranked as one of the top teams in the country.  I really think they are capable of giving Villanova a run for its money in the Big East this season.  Northern Iowa is off to a surprising 3-0 start, upsetting both Arizona State and Oklahoma.  Off a huge OT win over Oklahoma, I believe this team is in a letdown spot tonight.  And they are also overvalued because of that win, only catching 4.5 points against Xavier here.  Northern Iowa actually trailed by 18 points in the second half against Oklahoma.  But the Sooners miraculously went like 11 straight minutes without a field goal in the 2nd half to allow the comeback.  That's not going to happen again. The Musketeers are 7-0 ATS vs. good 3 point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.  Xavier is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  The Musketeers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games.  Take Xavier.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons -3.5

The Key: The Detroit Pistons are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.4 points per game.  The Pistons are 24-8 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Both the Celtics and Pistons played yesterday, but while the Pistons are relatively healthy, the Celtics are not.  They are expected to be without Al Horford and Jae Crowder again tonight, and those are two of their best players.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days' rest.  Detroit is 37-17-2 ATS in its last 56 home games.  Take Detroit.

6* NCAAB Saturday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on St. Mary's -2.5

The Key: St. Mary's returned all 5 starters from a team that went 29-6 last season and barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament.  They even beat Gonzaga twice during the regular season, but lost to them in the WCC Tournament.  This team is going to be dynamite this year.  Dayton returned 4 starters, but have 2 key players out now due to injury in Kendall Pollard (10.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG last year) and Josh Cunningham (7.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG).  St. Mary's is 13-2 ATS off a game with 24 or more assists.  The Gaels are 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Gaels are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 95 points or more. Take St. Mary's.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets +4

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are in a very tough spot mentally here.  They just played two huge games on back-to-back nights against the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, the two teams who played in the NBA Finals each of the past two seasons.  And now they face the Denver Nuggets and won't be able to emotionally get up for this game tonight.  The Nuggets want revenge from a 102-105 road loss at Toronto in their first meeting this season. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Nuggets are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Bets against favorites in a game involving two bad defensive teams who allow at least 102 points per game, after scoring 110 points or more in 4 straight games are 27-6 ATS since 1996.  The Nuggets are 14-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in 5 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Denver.

6* NCAAB Friday Night *CA$H COW* on Siena +23

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks are in a prime letdown spot here.  After losing to Indiana and then beating top-ranked Duke to open the season, there's no way they're going to be able to get up for Siena tonight.  They will just be going through the motions and won't win by more than 23 points.  Sienna is a very good team that went 21-13 last season with its only loss this season coming by 2 points at George Washington, which won the NIT last year and barely missed the NCAA Tournament.  Siena has all five starters back from last season and each of its top five scorers.  I love the experience on this team, and they won't be intimidated by Kansas.  They have five players back who averaged double-digits scoring last year.  Saints coach Jimmy Patsos is 9-1 ATS in road games after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more in all games he has coached.  Take Siena.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves -11

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They will be missing two key players tonight in Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas, who combined for 34 points last night against Washington.  I think the 76ers will show their fatigue here and fail to keep this game against the Minnesota Timberwolves competitive.  The 76ers are 0-4 on the road this season and getting outscored by 17.7 points per game.  The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games playing on zero rest.  Take Minnesota.

6* NCAAB Thursday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Arizona State -4

The Key: Bobby Hurley is now in his second season at Arizona State and big improvements can be expected.  Two key starters return from last year's team in Tra Holder (14.2 PPG) and Obinna Oleka (9.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  Guard Shannon Evans followed Hurley from Buffalo, sitting out last season due to transfer rules.  But he was Arizona State's best player in practice at times and will make significant contributions this season.  The Suns Devils are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS this season, winning by 18 over Portland State as 18-point favorites and by 22 over Cal Poly as 14.5-point favorites.  They are clearly undervalued in the early going.  Northern Iowa is overvalued after making the NCAA Tournament last season and showing well.  But the Panthers lost 3 starters and 3 of their top 4 scorers from that team.  They can be expected to get out to a slow start this season as a result.  Northern Iowa is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off a win by 30 points or more.  Bets against neutral court underdogs in the first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8 or more wins in their last 10 games, good team from last season that won 60% to 80% of their games are 22-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Arizona State.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder will be hungry for a win following 4 consecutive losses.  I like the price we are getting here as they basically just have to win to cover the spread.  I like the fact that the home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between OKC and Houston, and the home team went 4-0 straight up at home in their 4 meetings last season as well.  The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss by double-digits.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Marshall -2.5

The Key: Dan D'Antoni has his best team yet as he enters year 3 at Marshall.  They managed a 17-16 record last season and should be even better in 2016-17.  That's because they return 4 starters in Stevie Browning (12.8 PPG), Ryan Taylor (14.2 PPG), Jone Elmore (15.2 PPG) and Austin Loop (9.4 PPG).  Morehead State only has 2 starters back this year and loses three key players in Corban Collins (11.0 PPG), Brent Arrington (10.2 PPG) and Anthony Elechi (8.3 PPG).  I like the Thundering Herd to cover this small number and beat Morehead State tonight.  The Thundering Herd are 9-1 ATS in home games off a win over the last 3 seasons.  Marshall is 8-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  Take Marshall.

6* Bulls/Blazers Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Portland -3

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 7-4 this season with two of their losses coming to the Los Angeles Clippers, who are the best team in the NBA right now.  The Blazers are 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.  But they have failed to cover the spread in 4 straight, which has them undervalued right now as only 3-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls.  With wins and covers in 3 of their last 4 games against the Magic, Heat and Wizards, the Bulls come into this game overvalued.  I think the Blazers are the far superior team on a neutral court, and home-court advantage should be worth more than 3 points for them here.  This is a discount.  Take Portland.

6* Kansas/Duke ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Kansas +2

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are title favorites for good reason.  However, they aren't at full strength right now or even close to it as they are basically letting 6 players play all their minutes.  That's because they are without three McDonald's All-Americans in Jayson Tatum, Henry Giles and Marques Bolden.  Because of these losses, Kansas is actually the better team right now and shouldn't be underdogs.  The Jayhawks will also be motivated to avoid opening 0-2 after losing to Indiana in overtime in their opener.  The Blue Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. The Jayhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Kansas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss.  Take Kansas.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Auburn -7

The Key: The Auburn Tigers are in Year 3 under Bruce Pearl and primed for their best season yet.  They are revitalized with an influx of new, talented players joining key contributors from an injury-riddled 2015-16 campaign.  Pearl has done an excellent job in recruiting, and he now has his deepest, most talented team yet.  The Tigers beat North Florida 83-66 in their opener while forcing 28 turnovers.  This seems like a cheap price to back them at home against overmatched Georgia State as only 7-point favorites.  Georgia State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.  The Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.  Georgia State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 vs. SEC opponents.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Sun Belt foes.  Take Auburn.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons -2.5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are a tired team right now.  They have lost 3 straight games coming in and now will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 12 days.  I don't expect a very good effort from them here tonight off their 117-119 home loss to the Magic last night.  The Pistons are 4-0 at home this season.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, beating opponents by over 17 points per game.  The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite.  Take Detroit.

6* Sunday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on UTSA +17.5

The Key: The UTSA Road Runners really impressed me in their opener.  They only lost 66-69 at Fresno State as 15-point dogs, covering the spread by 12 points.  They outrebounded the Bulldogs by 25 boards and only lost the game because they committed 20 turnovers.  This is a team that returned 4 starters from last year and hired Steve Henson, Lon Kruger's right-hand man at Oklahoma.  Oregon State is a team that lost 4 key players from last year, including star PG Gary Payton II, who averaged 16 points and 7.8 boards last year.  I wasn't impressed with Oregon State's 78-58 home win over Prairie View A&M in the opener as the Beavers shot just 41.3% and committed 20 turnovers.  That's really bad when you consider they had only 46 shot attempts.  Take UTSA.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have been competitive in almost every game this season.  They have won three of their last five overall and were competitive in the other two in road losses to the Lakers and Blazers.  The Brooklyn Nets have lost three of their last five with blowout losses to Chicago by 30 and New York by 14.  All three of the Nets' wins this season have come at home, but they are 0-3 on the road.  I look for the supremely talented Suns to put them away early and win this one going away.  The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Key: The Sacramento Kings are in the midst of the toughest early schedule in the NBA.  They are being asked to play an 11th game in 17 days to open the season tonight.  This will be their 5th game in 7 days and the 2nd of a back-to-back after a home loss to the Lakers last night.  The Blazers have owned the Kings, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last 6 home meetings while winning 5 times by at least 11 points.  Given the tough spot for the Kings, another blowout win for the Blazers can be expected tonight.  Take Portland.

6* Michigan State/Arizona ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Arizona +1

The Key: Arizona has four new starters, including two true freshman starters in guard Rawle Alkins and power forward Lauri Markkanen, a 3-point shooter and NBA lottery prospect who was the team's leading scorer with 21 points in its final exhibition game against Chico State on Sunday.  Sophomore post player Chance Comanche should be good to go after serving a suspension due to academics. Comanche (6-11) joins a front line that includes 7-footer Markkanen, 7-foot center Dusan Ristic and 6-9 forward Keanu Pinder, a junior college transfer.  Michigan State also replaces 4 starters from last season, and they'll be without big men Ben Carter and Gavin Schilling due to knee injuries.  That leaves Nick Ward, at 6-8, as the team's tallest player tonight.  The Wildcats should own the Spartans on the glass in this game, which will be the key to victory.  Take Arizona.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks have won 3 of their last 4 games coming in.  They throttled the Pacers 125-107 and the Kings 117-91 in the process.  Their only loss came on the road in overtime at Dallas while playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Bucks have had the last 3 days off to get ready for the Pelicans, who they already beat 117-113 on the road just over a week ago.  The Pelicans are a mess as they are 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  They should be much bigger underdogs here to the Bucks on the road.  The Pelicans are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 vs. Eastern Conference.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Los Angeles Clippers -9.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in a very tough situation here.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They used up a lot of energy in a 124-121 home win over the Phoenix Suns last night as Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 71 points.  The Clippers are 6-1 this season and outscoring teams by 14.9 points per game.  They have been the best team in the NBA thus far in point differential.  And they want revenge on the Blazers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last year once Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were lost to injury.  Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  That includes 20 and 21-points wins over the Blazers in Game 1 and 2 of the playoffs last year when they were healthy.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns +7.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns, with their terrific guard trio of Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Brandon Knight, match up very well with the Portland Trail Blazers and their superb guard duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.  That probably helps to explain why the Suns have had so much success against the Blazers recently.  Dating back to last season, the Suns have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Blazers outright.  Bets on road underdogs after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 24-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  I think the Suns are catching too many points tonight.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma City Thunder -5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't missing Kevin Durant too much.  They are 5-1 this season with their only loss coming to Durant's Warriors on the road.  They also have a road win over the Clippers, and they are 3-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 13.4 points per game.  The Miami Heat are clearly taking a step back this season as their roster is one of the worst in the NBA now.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 with all 3 losses coming by at least 6 points.  The Thunder have won their last 2 home meetings with the Heat by 25 and 18 points.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets +3

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing a road game against the Washington Wizards last night.  Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets come in on 2 days' rest and chomping the bit to hit the court.  The Rockets' up-tempo style will test the legs of the Hawks as they have to be tired right now.  The Rockets are scoring 110.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting.  Houston is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Take Houston.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on San Antonio Spurs -4.5

The Key: I really like this spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  It's a home and home situation for them after losing to the Jazz at home on Tuesday night.  Now they've had two days off and will get their shot at revenge against the Jazz here on the road.  The Jazz don't have that same luxury as they came back and played the Mavs on Wednesday, so this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  And the Jazz are short-handed right now playing without Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward and Boris Diaw.  The Spurs have still won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Jazz with 3 of those wins coming by 18-plus points.  San Antonio is 19-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more since 1996.  Utah has only covered in 3 of its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take San Antonio.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston Celtics +10

The Key: I know the Boston Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  That depth allows the Celtics to play well on no rest.  They are actually 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The city of Cleveland is down right now after losing the World Series.  I think that will carry over to their basketball team here tonight.  Either way, it's going to be hard for the Cavs to win by double-digits against these pesky Celtics.  Take Boston.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks +4

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are hungry for their first win of the season.  They are 0-3 with an overtime loss to the Pacers and a 1-point loss to the Rockets.  But they've had two days in between games, which has helped Dirk Nowitzki get over his illness, and he should be good to go tonight.  This is an awful spot for the Jazz, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  They beat the Spurs on the road last night and will likely be in a letdown spot here.  The Mavs are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Dallas.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -3.5

The Key: The NBA schedule makers did the Kings no favors to start the season.  They have to be gassed right now considering they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  I look for the Miami Heat to take advantage and put away the Kings early in a blowout victory.  The Heat have been solid this season with a 12-point win over the Magic on the road, and narrow 6 and 7-point home losses to the Hornets and Spurs, respectively.  The Kings showed signs of wearing down last night as they were outscored 14-27 in the fourth quarter in a 95-106 loss at Atlanta.  The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 meetings, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home meetings.  Take Miami.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are a perfect 3-0 ATS in three games this season.  They are just 1-2 straight up, but they only lost by 5 on the road to the Celtics, and by 2 on the road to the Bucks.  They won their only home game, beating the Pacers by 9 as 6-point dogs.  I think they will give the Chicago Bulls a run for their money here tonight with a chance to win outright as 6.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the past 2 seasons.  Take Brooklyn.

6* T'Wolves/Kings Saturday NBA *BAILOUT* on Timberwolves/Kings UNDER 206

The Key: Tom Thibodeau has installed a defensive mindset into this Minnesota team that has been missing over the past couple seasons.  The Timberwolves held opponents to just over 94 points per game in the preseason.  They started the season with a 98-102 loss at Memphis, and I look for them to lock in defensively tonight against the Kings.  The Kings have shown defensive improvement under Dave Joerger as well as they are going all-out on that side of the court in the early going.  They held Phoenix to just 94 points in the opener and San Antonio to a respectable 102 points in their second game of the season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 202, 217, 194 and 192 points.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -10.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors have been steaming mad since their 100-129 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the opener.  Look for them to take it out on the hapless New Orleans Pelicans, who are the worst team in the Western Conference to open the season.  The Pelicans are missing two starters in Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday, and their lineup is one of the worst in the NBA as a result right now.  Even the Denver Nuggets beat them 107-102 in the opener despite committing 24 turnovers.  The Warriors should roll from start to finish and easily win this game by double-digits.  The Pelicans are 0-9 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists over the last 3 seasons.  Take Golden State.

6* Celtics/Bulls TNT *CA$H COW* on UNDER 211

The Key: Because the Celtics played a shootout against the Nets last night in a 122-117 win, this total has been inflated tonight.  The Celtics won't be playing with the same energy as they did last night, and the Bulls are a much better defensive team than the Nets.  The Bulls have plus-defenders in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez, Rajon Rondo and Dwayne Wade in their starting lineup.  They will be a great defensive team this year.  I worry about their offense, though, as they lack shooting in their starting 5.  This may be one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA this season.  All 3 meetings between these teams last season saw 211 or fewer combined points.  They combined for 211, 193 and 205 points in them.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Celtics last 17 games following a straight up win.  The UNDER is 40-18-3 in Celtics last 61 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER.

6* Rockets/Lakers ESPN *BAILOUT* on OVER 222

The Key: Mike D'Antoni was a perfect fit for Houston's roster.  That has proven to be the case in the preseason as the Rockets led the league with an average of 118.6 points per game, which was 6 points more than second-place Golden State.  Their defense leaves a lot to be desired as they gave up 108.1 points per game in the preseason.  The Lakers are going to be improved offensively this season with their young nucleus in Luke Walton's system, which he brings over from Golden State.  They average a solid 105.9 points per game in the preseason to finish in the Top 10.  But they had the fourth-worst scoring defense in allowing 107.2 points per game, and that will be the case all season.  Look for plenty of points in this opener as the combined scored of this game sails way OVER 222 points.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *BLOWOUT* on Indiana Pacers -6.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers made some nice moves this offseason in adding Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson.  They already have their star in Paul George and an emerging star in Myles Turner.  Look for the Pacers to get off to a fast start in their opener and not let up at home against the Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavericks went just 2-5 in the preseason and were outscored by nearly 9 points per game.  They spent too much money on Harrison Barnes, and the rest of their roster are far past their primes.  The Mavs will be a mess this season as they finish as one of the worst teams in the West, while the Pacers finish among the East's elite.  Take Indiana.

7* Spurs/Warriors TNT *BAILOUT* on Golden State -8

The Key: The Golden State Warriors should hit the ground running tonight at home against the San Antonio Spurs in front of a hostile home crowd.  The Warriors are far and away the best team in the NBA, and they showed signs of that in the preseason by going 6-1, clearly not taking long at all to adjust to some new faces in Kevin Durant and Zaza Pachulia.  The Warriors will be favored by double-digits in most games this season.  They have gone 33-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 years.  I think we are getting a discount on them in the opener against the Spurs, who will take a few steps back this season.  Take Golden State.

7* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -4.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors will win the NBA Finals with a convincing victory in Game 7.  They have not played up to par their last two games, but a big reason was being without Draymond Green for Game 5.  Look for them to make a statement in Game 7 and come up clutch, which is what they have done all season.  They have only lost back-to-back games twice all year.  They are 50-4 at home and this is the smallest favorites they have been all year.  We're really getting them at a discount here tonight.  Take Golden State.

7* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -2

The Key: After the home team dominated the first 3 games of this series in blowout fashion, the road team has escaped with victories in each of the last 2 contests.  I find it hard to believe that the road team can win 3 straight, so I'll side with the Cavaliers in Game 6 tonight.  They have to be brimming with confidence after winning by 15 points in Oakland in Game 5 thanks to a pair of 41-point efforts from Lebron James and Kyrie Irving.  Look for these two to get much more help from their supporting cast at home in Game 6.  The Cavs are 41-9 at home this season and 8-1 at home in the playoffs with 7 of those victories coming by 11 points or more.  The Cavs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take Cleveland.

7* Cavs/Warriors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 205

The Key: The Golden State Warriors will no longer be able to go small with Draymond Green at center, which is their best lineup.  They will have to go bigger and give Andrew Bogut more minutes.  I believe that chance will make the Warriors' offense much less potent, and it will help lead to a low-scoring Game 5.  These teams are now very familiar with one another after playing four games already, which also favors the defenses.  Cleveland is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last eight vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Warriors last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -2

The Key: We'll stick with the home team once again in Game 4.  The home team has won in blowout fashion in the first three games of this series, and I look for them to follow suit tonight.  Cleveland is 41-8 at home this season and has upped its game at home even more in the playoffs.  Indeed, the Cavs are 8-0 at home in the postseason with an average margin of victory of over 20 points per game.  Golden State has actually been outscored by over 13 points per game in its last six road games while going 2-4 in the process.  The Cavs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games coming in.  Take Cleveland.

7* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +1.5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers will certainly be hungry for a win in Game 3 tonight after taking it on the chin both on the floor and through the media over the past week.  Now they get to return to the friendly confines of Cleveland, which is going to make all the difference.  The Cavs are 40-8 at home this season.  They are 7-0 at home in the playoffs with an average margin of victory of more than 20 points per game.  They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Golden State has lost 3 of its last 5 road games coming in while getting outscored by 10 points per game.  Take Cleveland.