Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +5

The Key: The West Virginia Mountaineers are quietly 20-6 this season and one of the best teams in the country.  They gained a lot of confidence by beating Kansas 62-61 at home last time out, which was on January 16th.  Oklahoma State last played on January 18th in a 65-70 home loss to Iowa State, giving it just two days in between games.  That extra rest and preparation for the Mountaineers certainly favors them coming into this one.  WVU lost both meetings to Oklahoma State by a combined 7 points last year, and it has not forgotten.  The Mountaineers have played their best basketball on the road this season, going 10-3 in all games away from home.  Take West Virginia.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Duquesne +8

The Key: The general public is going to see the records of these two teams and automatically jump on Dayton (20-5) over Duquesne (8-16).  The oddsmakers have adjusted for it, leaving us with a ton of value to swoop in and back the home underdog.  Duquesne is 7-6 at home this season, including a perfect 5-0 ATS.  It beat George Washington 78-62 as a 7-point underdog in its last home game.  It beat George Mason 62-53 as a 3-point favorite in its home game prior.  It only lost to Rhode Island by 1, VCU by 6, and St. Bonaventure by 3 in its last three home losses.  Dayton's is 1-3 in its last four road games with a 60-77 loss to Davidson, a 64-66 loss to UMass, a 64-65 loss to George Washington, and a 51-44 win at Saint Louis.  The Friars are 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.  Dayton only has one day in between games after beating St. Josephs 68-64 on Thursday.  Duquesne has had two days off since its 72-87 road loss at LaSalle on Wednesday.  That extra day of prep and rest certainly favors the Dukes in this one.  Take Duquesne.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Key: These teams have met up once already this season in a game that saw 193 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or less in six of their last eight meetings.  I expect that this contest will fit that criteria considering the Pistons are without a point guard right now.  They traded D.J. Augustin to Oklahoma City, and while they did get Reggie Jackson back in return, he's not expected to play tonight.  The Bulls have allowed 88.3 points per game in their last four games, and they are 5-1 UNDER in their last six.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 or more points in their last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bulls last 17 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant at home this season, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  They are just 10-16 away from home where they are getting outscored by 3.6 points per game.  They do have Anthony Davis back healthy, but Jrue Holiday remains out with an injury.  The Magic are fully healthy as arguably their best player in Tobias Harris is expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It continues to be undervalued here as 5.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on home underdogs like the Magic after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 80-41 (66.1%) ATS since 1996.  Take Orlando.

6* Utah/Oregon State Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Oregon State +7.5

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers (16-9) could really use a win over Utah to boost their NCAA Tournament résumé.  Considering they are a perfect 14-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 14.2 points per game, I like their chances of not only staying within the 7.5 points, but also pulling off the upset.  They have beaten the likes of Arizona, ASU and UCLA at home this season, so they can certainly hang with the Utes.  Utah is just 5-4 in all road games compared to 15-0 at home, so it has been beatable on the road.  The Beavers have held visiting opponents to an average of 52.6 points and 34.4 percent shooting.  They've won nine of 10 home meetings all-time with Utah.  Take Oregon State.

7* Mavericks/Thunder TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Key: The Thunder were red hot going into the All-Star Break, and I look for them to come out of it the same way.  They have won five of their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits.  This team is on a mission as it is now just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for the final playoff spot in the West.  Oklahoma City has won 11 of its last 14 meetings with Dallas.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or better.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Missouri Valley Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Loyola-Chicago +8.5

The Key: Loyola-Chicago is simply catching too many points tonight against Northern Iowa.  Loyola-Chicago only lost by 9 at Northern Iowa in their first meeting of the season back on January 4.  Now, they are catching 8.5 points at home in the rematch.  That fact alone shows that there is value to be had in backing the Ramblers, who have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  Also, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in six meetings between these teams dating back to 2005.  Take Loyola-Chicago.

6* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN *CA$H COW* on UNDER 131

The Key: I look for an ugly, defensive battle between Syracuse and Louisville in this contest tonight.  Both Louisville and Syracuse struggle offensively, but both are elite defensively.  The Cardinals shoot just 43.4% on the season, including 30.5% from 3-point range.  The Orange shoot 44.0% on the season, and 31.7% from 3-point range.  Louisville gives up just 59.0 points per game on 37.6% shooting. Syracuse allows 63.1 points per game on 39.7% shooting.  The Cardinals are going to be without Chris Jones, who is their third-leading scorer at 13.6 points per game.  They are going to struggle even more offensively tonight without him.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Syracuse as they've combined for 111, 107, 126 and 124 points.  That's an average of 117.0 combined points per game.  Take the UNDER.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Auburn +1

The Key: The Auburn Tigers are starting to play up to their potential here in recent games.  They have two of the biggest road wins of the season in the SEC during this stretch.  They beat LSU 81-77 as 10.5-point road underdogs on February 5th.  Last time out, they upset Georgia 69-68 as 11-point road dogs.  Those two efforts show that they can play with anyone in the conference.  The Alabama Crimson Tide are reeling, losers of four of their last six games overall with their only wins coming against SEC bottom feeders Missouri and Mississippi State.  They remain without second-leading scorer Ricky Tarrant (13.1 ppg), which has been a big reason for their struggles.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Alabama beat Auburn 57-55 as 11-point home favorites in the first meeting this season, so it's revenge time for the Tigers.  Auburn is 9-2 ATS revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Alabama is just 2-6 SU in true road games this year.  Take Auburn.

7* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgetown -7

The Key: The Hoyas have had ample time to rest and prepare for the Red Storm tonight.  They have had six days off in between games as they played last Tuesday in a 19-point road win at Seton Hall.  St. John's has only had two days off in between games after upsetting Xavier 78-70 on the road Saturday.  Not only are the Red Storm the more tired, less-prepared team, but they're also in a letdown spot off that win.  Georgetown is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with St. John's.  It has won all six of those games by 10 points or more, and by an average of 16.7 points.  The Hoyas are 6-0 ATS in home games against teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less over the past two seasons.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, making for a 10-0 ATS angle backing the Hoyas.  Take Georgetown.

7* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +16

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats are getting a little too much respect from the books here as 16-point favorites over the Seton Hall Pirates.  After all, Seton Hall beat Villanova 66-61 earlier this season as 7-point underdogs.  In fact, it was the Pirates' 3rd win in the last five meetings in this series.  They also upset Villanova 64-63 in the Big East Tournament last year.  Seton Hall has lost four straight coming in to drop to 15-10 and outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble, so it will be highly motivated for a win.  The Pirates are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games.  The Pirates are also 9-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive losses to conference opponents over the last three years.  Take Seton Hall.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +5.5

The Key: This couldn't possibly be a worse spot for the Valparaiso Crusaders.  They are coming off a huge win over Horizon League contender Wisconsin-Green Bay on Friday that moved the Crusaders into first place in the conference.  This is a letdown spot after that win, and I just cannot foresee them being able to get motivated to face a Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that they already beat by 25 in the first meeting at home.  What also makes this a tough spot for Valpo is that it will only have one day off in between games after playing on Friday, while Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be well-rested and ready to go after last playing on Tuesday.  The Panthers are 9-3 at home this season, including 5-1 in Horizon League home games.  Bryce Drew is 2-9 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days' rest as the coach of Valpo.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

6* West Coast Conference *CA$H COW* on Pepperdine +18.5

The Key: The Pepperdine Waves were one of the few teams to play Gonzaga this season when they met on January 15th.  They only lost 76-78 as 12-point home underdogs.  Now, they find themselves as 18.5-point road dogs in the rematch.  Once again, the Waves are getting overlooked here like they have all season.  They are 15-6-2 ATS in all lined games this year, and 15-10 straight up.  Pepperdine is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Meanwhile, Gonzaga is just 1-9 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The last three meetings in this series have been decided by 17 points or less.  Take Pepperdine.

7* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -3

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are pretty much right on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They need this win, and I fully expect them to go out and get it Saturday.  They have protected their home court very well this season, going 12-2 with their only losses coming to Kentucky and Florida.  Vanderbilt has been terrible on the road, going 1-6 in true road games this season, including 0-5 in SEC road contests.  These home/away records alone show you that there is a ton of value in backing the Crimson Tide as only 3-point favorites today.  Take Alabama.

6* Big 12 *BLOWOUT* on Oklahoma State -3

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs played a very weak non-conference schedule, and as a result, they jumped out to a 13-0 start.  Reality has hit them very hard in Big 12 play, where they are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS, getting outscored by an average of 8.8 points per game.  They have dropped seven straight coming in with five of those losses coming by 12 points or more.  I look for more of the same today against an Oklahoma State team that comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Cowboys are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, beating Baylor (64-53) and Kansas (67-62) at home, along with Texas (65-63) and Baylor (74-65) on the road.  Oklahoma State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in four meetings with TCU over the past two years, winning by 22, 32, 17 and 22 points, respectively.  The Horned Frogs are 23-52 ATS in their last 75 home games.  TCU is 2-15 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last three years.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season.  TCU is 1-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less over the last three years.  Take Oklahoma State.

7* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo -8.5

The Key: The Toledo Rockets had big expectations coming into the year with four starters back from a team that went 27-7 last year.  They were a huge disappointment during a 10-8 start, but they have really shifted it into high gear here of late.  They have won six straight coming in while covering the spread in four straight as well.  They will be out for revenge from a 67-60 road loss at Kent State in the first meeting this season.  Kent State had their best player in Jimmy Hall then, but now Hall has missed the past three games with Mono and will sit out again tonight.  Hall leads the team in scoring (15.1 ppg), rebounding (7.5 rpg), field goal percentage (52.7%) and 3-point percentage (50.0%), so it's a huge loss to say the least.  The Golden Flashes have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall as they've missed him greatly.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after going under the total by more than 12 points in two straight, in a game between two good teams that win 60% to 80% of their games are 61-27 (69.3%) ATS since 1997.  Take Toledo.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on California +7

The Key: The California Golden Bears have won four straight to get to 15-9 on the season and back into the NCAA Tournament discussion.  They have beaten Washington State and Washington outright as road underdogs, as well as USC and UCLA at home during this solid stretch.  They just don't seem to be getting much love from the books here as 7-point road dogs to the Colorado Buffaloes, who are just 11-11 on the season.  The Buffaloes have lost six of their last eight coming in with their lone wins coming against conference bottom feeders USC and Washington State.  The two meetings between these teams last year were decided by a combined 4 points.  Colorado is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take California.

7* Stanford/Utah Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford +10

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are getting no love from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Utah Utes.  They are 16-7 on the season and easily could be better considering five of their seven losses have come by 7 points or less.  They have even lost four times by a combined 10 points.  The fact of the matter is that this team just doesn't get blown out, which is what it would take for Utah to cover this spread tonight.  The Cardinal have had the Utes' number, winning four of the last five meetings with their lone loss coming by a single points.  Stanford is 5-1 (83%) ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Stanford.

7* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +9.5

The Key: The Boise State Broncos are way overvalued right now due to having gone 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  It's time to fade, especially considering this is a letdown spot for the Broncos if I've ever seen one.  They are coming off a huge 61-46 win over San Diego State, which is the favorite to win the MWC.  After having already beaten Air Force by 9 on the road earlier this season, the Broncos won't be 100% focused for this game to say the least.  That 9-point win over the Falcons came when Air Force leading scorer Max Yon (14.2 ppg) was out.  The Falcons went 1-5 without him, but they are 2-0 since his return with impressive wins over New Mexico (53-49) and Wyoming (73-50).  Boise State is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Take Air Force.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 198

The Key: Four of the last eight meetings between Memphis and Oklahoma City have gone to overtime.  I believe that has helped provide us with excellent line value here to back the UNDER in this battle between two of the best teams in the West tonight.  If you don't count overtime, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated when looking at recent meetings.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for 186, 198, 170, 160, 180, 188, 229, 180 and 159 points in their last nine meetings.  As you can see, only once in those nine meetings have they surpassed 198 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 183.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  I believe we are getting 15 points of value here with this 198-point total as a result.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: There is some serious value with this UNDER 197.5-point total in this game between Chicago and Sacramento.  The Kings are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  They have scored just 89.7 points in their last six contests.  The Bulls are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games overall.  They have allowed 92.3 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  They have averaged a combined 180.3 points per game in those three meetings.  Add these three trends up and that's a 13-0 angle backing the UNDER in this game tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* American Athletic *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -3

The Key: The Temple Owls will be out for revenge on the Cincinnati Bearcats after suffering their worst loss of the season to them on the the road by a final of 53-84 on January 17th.  The Owls have been rolling since that loss, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games.  They won four of those five games by 13 points or more, and the only exception was a 1-point win at Memphis as 3.5-point road underdogs.  Temple is 10-2 at home this season.  Cincinnati is 3-4 in true road games, including 2-3 in AAC play.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AAC opponents.  The Bearcats are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Take Temple.

6* Iowa State/Oklahoma ESPN *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +5.5

The Key: Iowa State has won five of its last seven meetings with Oklahoma with one of its two losses coming by 5 points or less.  This has clearly been a one-sided series, and I expect the Cyclones to likely pull off the upset in this one tonight.  Any time you can get them as an underdog you should give it a look.  While they are 2-3 in true road games, only one of their losses came by more than 5 points, and that was a 13-point loss at Big 12-leading Kansas.  The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.  Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Iowa State.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando Magic +9

The Key: The Magic are playing some great basketball here of late as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at Oklahoma City by 7 as 10.5-point dogs, at San Antonio by 7 as 13.5-point dogs, at home against Chicago by 1 as 6-point dogs, and beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point home favorites.  They want revenge on the Wizards after losing their first three meetings this season by 7, 5, and 2 points.  They should have a great chance to take this one right down to the wire considering how poorly Washington is playing of late.  It has lost five of its last six games overall, and it is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games.  The Magic are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Orlando.

6* USC/Stanford Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on USC +14.5

The Key: The USC Trojans are undervalued coming into this game due to having lost seven straight.  Well, five of those seven losses have come by 8 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  They have been competitive and will continue to be tonight.  This losing streak started with a 76-78 home loss to tonight's opponent, Stanford, as 6-point underdogs back on January 11th.  That means the Trojans will be out for revenge in this game, and after staying within 2 at home, I have no doubt they can keep it within 14.5 on the road.  Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 12 points or less, including five by 8 points or fewer.  The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.  USC is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.  Take USC.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks may have the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, but that's the reason they are overavlued at this point in the season, especially tonight as only 2-point road underdogs to the Grizzlies.  This is the perfect spot to fade the Hawks, who are set up to have a letdown following their big win over the Warriors on Friday.  The Grizzlies continue to get no respect.  They have won 12 of their last 14 games overall and are 21-5 at home this season.  They have held their last nine opponents to an average of 86.3 points per game.  Their defense is the reason they'll prevail tonight.  Take the Grizzlies.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 195.5

The Key: The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this year at 27-23 is the way they play at the defensive end.  In fact, they rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Bucks' last 21 games overall, including 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  They are coming off a high-scoring loss to the Houston Rockets last night, which is the reason I believe the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Boston Celtics' last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams in Milwaukee dating back to 2011.  Take the UNDER.

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +15

The Key: South Florida has been much more competitive here of late against some really good teams in the American Athletic.  They have lost their last four games all by 13 points or less to UConn, SMU, Tulsa and Temple.  Cincinnati is in the perfect letdown spot here off its huge road win at SMU on Thursday.  That also means the Bearcats are playing on just one days' rest, while the Bulls come in on two days' rest after playing on Wednesday.  The last four meetings between the Bulls and Bearcats have all been decided by 8 points or less.  South Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Cincinnati, including 8-1 ATS in its last nine road meetings.  Take South Florida.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on DePaul +13

The Key: The Blue Demons continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have gone 6-5 straight up and 9-2 ATS within the Big East this season despite being picked by many to finish at or near the bottom of the conference coming into the years.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 13 points in Big East play one time.  That was a 17-point loss at Villanova as 21.5-point underdogs.  Eight of Butler's 10 Big East games have been decided by 12 points or less.  Six of its last nine games have been decided by 4 points or fewer as well.  The Blue Demons are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Take DePaul.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic -4

The Key: The Orlando Magic are favored for good reason here.  They have lost 10 straight coming in, but their opponents in the Lakers have lost 11 of their last 12.  This is bad versus worse here tonight, and I'll side with the bad.  That's because the Magic have showed me a lot in their last two games.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, and by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs.  I fully expect them to put an end to their losing streak tonight.  After all, the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Lakers are 0-8 in their last eight road games will all eight losses coming by 4 points or more.  Seven of those eight losses have come by 8 points or more as well.  Take Orlando.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +3

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks expended a lot of energy last night trying to keep up with the Golden State Warriors in a 114-128 shootout.  Not only will they be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.  I don't expect them to have a lot left to give against the Sacramento Kings tonight, especially since they're short-handed playing without Rajon Rondo.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Take the Kings.

6* Ohio Valley *CA$H COW* on Tennessee State +15.5

The Key: Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It is easily one of the more undervalued teams in the country right now due to its poor 5-18 record on the season, but it has won two in a row coming in.  Morehead State isn't a whole lot better at 10-14.  Plus, the Eagles have only won one of their last eight games by more than 13 points.  They have really struggled at home here of late, going 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games overall.  The Tigers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Tennessee State is 9-0 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three years.  The road team has won the last three meetings in this series, including a 70-68 victory for the Tigers as 12-point road dogs last year.  Take Tennessee State.

7* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Auburn +11

The Key: Each of Auburn's last five games have been decided by 10 points or less.  It lost at Alabama by 2 as 11-point dogs, and at Tennessee by 8 as 8.5-point dogs.  Seven of LSU's last eight games have been decided by 7 points or less.  What's more, five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  Auburn is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with LSU.  Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight trips to LSU over the past eight seasons.  Take Auburn.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Spurs OVER 203

The Key: The Orlando Magic have become a more up-tempo team in recent weeks.  It hasn't worked out very well for them at all, but it has been very good for "over" bettors.  The Magic are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall.  Their defense has been absolutely atrocious as they have allowed 101 or more points in 13 straight games.  Off a poor offensive performance last time out against the Clippers, look for the Spurs to get back on track offensively in this one.  The last time these teams met in San Antonio, the Spurs won 121-112 for 233 combined points.  The OVER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The OVER is 15-5 in Spurs last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  Take the OVER.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas -6.5

The Key: The Longhorns are in need of a win after losing three straight to Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor coming in with two of those three coming on the road.  Oklahoma State is just 1-5 in true road games this season, losing by an average of 7.8 points per game.  It has lost its last three road games all by 10 points or more.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings between the Cowboys and Longhorns.  All seven of those victories came by 9 points or more, so the home team usually wins in blowout fashion.  The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, including 1-8 ATS int heir last nine road games as an underdog of 6.5 or less points.  Take Texas.

7* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo -6

The Key: The Toledo Rockets won 27 games last year and had four starters returning from that squad.  They have not played up to expectations as they are just 13-8 on the season.  However, seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or less.  This team has lost a lot of close games and is better than their record would indicate.  Eastern Michigan is 12-1 at home, but just 2-6 on the road.  The home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Toledo and EMU.  Toledo is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with EMU, winning all five games by 8 points or more.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Toledo.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -8

The Key: The Blazers will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost eight of their last 10 games overall.  Seven of those losses came against playoff teams, and seven came by 7 points or less.  The Jazz come in riding high off a huge upset win over the Golden State Warriors, setting them up for a letdown spot tonight.  The Jazz are just 8-16 on the road this season.  The Blazers have won their last four meetings with the Jazz by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Plays against underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five years.  Take the Blazers.

6* Indiana/Wisconsin Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Indiana +16

The Key: The Hoosiers are one of the most improved teams in the country at 16-6 this season.  They can score with anyone as they average 80.3 points per game and shoot 47.8% from the field.  I look for them to keep up with the Badgers, who are also one of the most efficient teams in the Big Ten.  This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Each of the last eight meetings between Wisconsin and Indiana have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Wisconsin is just 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Indiana.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on St. John's +6

The Key: This is a great situation to back the St. John's Red Storm.  They will be motivated for revenge on the Butler Bulldogs after losing the first meeting at home by a final of 69-73.  That was one of four losses in Big East play that the Red Storm have suffered by single-digits, including three by 4 points or less.  Butler is a team that has won a ton of close games.  The Bulldogs are 6-3 in the Big East, but four of those six ins came by 4 points or less.  Six of Butler's last eight games have been decided by 4 points or fewer as well.  The Red Storm are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win.  Take St. John's.

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +7

The Key: Iowa State has lost four games this season, but all four came by single digits, including three by 5 points or fewer.  That's how close this team is to being 20-0 this season.  The Jayhawks are more beatable this year than they have been in a while.  Iowa State wants to win the Big 12 this season, and it has to go through Kansas to do so.  It shot 50.8% from the field in its 86-81 home victory over the Jayhawks in the first meeting this season.  While Kansas will be out for revenge, I don't believe that trumps Iowa State's motivation of wanting to put an end to a 9-game losing streak at Allen Fieldhouse.  This is one of the best Cyclone teams in program history, and one fully capable of going into Kansas and pulling off the upset.  The Cyclones are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  Take Iowa State.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Wizards UNDER 188.5

The Key: The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined to average 182.8 points per game in those four meetings at the end of regulation.  The Hornets have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games overall.  They have combined to average 176.7 points per game with their last seven opponents as well.  The under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Washington.  The under is also 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics Over 187

The Key: Boston is off a six-point loss to Houston, and that is very significant because it is 7-0 "over" this season in home games following a loss of six points or less. We have seen an average of 212.1 total points scored in this spot. In addition, when the line is 180.0 to 189.5, playing the "over" on Sunday road teams that average 6.0 made three-point shots per game or more has produced a 46-18 mark the last five seasons. These teams have combined with their opponent for an average of 192.0 total points in this situation. Take the over.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on NC-Greensboro +3.5

The Key: This is a bad scheduling spot for Western Carolina, which will be playing its second road game in three days. To make matters worse, it is off an upset win at VMI and is 6-21 ATS off an upset win on the road since 1997. NC-Greensboro has a quick turnaround too but is in a much better situation because it hasn't had to travel. It has lost its last three, and if that's not enough motivation, it has lost six straight to the Catamounts. The Spartans are 24-8 ATS off three straight losses to conference foes since 1997. While Western Carolina has had the edge in the series lately, it's been far from dominant at NC-Greensboro where it hasn't won by more than five points in the last five meetings. I'll take the points given the tough scheduling spot for WC and NC-Gs level of motivation.

6* NCAAB Trap Game on South Carolina -3

The Key: Odds makers are begging for action on a Georgia team that is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five by giving it points. It is up against an opponent that is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in league play. The Bulldogs are also 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five versus South Carolina. I'm not taking the bait. The fact the books have made the decision to favor the Gamecocks here is very significant. Consider that favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games are 76-37 ATS since 1997 when matched up against an opponent that has covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Teams fitting this situation have won by an average of 10.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system tightens up to 20-5 ATS over the last three seasons. Not only will South Carolina be motivated but it catches Georgia at a good time as it is expected to be without leading scorer Marcus Thornton. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Year on Pittsburgh +5.5

The Key: Expect a letdown from Notre Dame as it hits the road following a big win over Duke. The Fighting Irish are 0-8 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch where they've covered the spread in three of their last four games. You want to fade teams like Notre Dame that have won 18 or more of their last 20 games if they are playing their third game in a week. Doing so has produced a 71-38 ATS mark the last five seasons. Pitt was upset by three points at VA Tech last time out, but it is 11-2 ATS off a close road loss of three points or less under coach Dixon and has bounced back to win by an average of 10.1 points in this spot. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +7.5

The Key: Off Wednesday's big win over Dallas, Houston will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Celtics. Fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 53-21 (72%) ATS mark the last five seasons. After going 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS versus the likes of the Clippers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Jazz, Boston was crushed by the miserable T-wolves. You can bet that loss isn't setting well. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Western Conference foes. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on UCLA +6

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to Oregon State and Oregon and further fueled by a brutal 71-39 loss at Utah earlier this month, UCLA will give the Utes all they want and more. UCLA will be happy to step back on its home floor, where it is 9-1 this season, after three straight on the road. The Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following three or more consecutive road games. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Teams headed up by coach Alford are 45-25 ATS since 1997 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. In addition, you want to back underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a road loss of 10 points or more if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 102-52 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Under the Radar Blowout on UTEP -11

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses on the road, UTEP will be looking to put the hurt on UAB tonight. You want to back home teams with four starters returning that are off two or more consecutive upset losses on the road as doing so has produced a 32-9 ATS mark since 1997. Teams in this situation have won by an average of 13.5 points. In addition, UTEP is 8-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a conference opponent under coach Tim Floyd and has won these games by an average of 16.1 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -8

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Knicks following last night's big upset win over the Thunder. They are just 3-20 on the road and 1-10 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are 0-7 in their last seven in Indiana and have lost these by an average of 14.9 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Mavericks +4

The Key: Dallas fits into a strong situation. You want to play underdogs that are seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent when their opponent checks in off two or more consecutive road wins. Doing so has produced a 34-13 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, the Mavericks are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a loss, 64-30 ATS in their last 94 road games and 43-19 ATS in their last 62 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

7* SEC Game of the Week on South Carolina +5.5

The Key: LSU is being overvalued following back-to-back upset wins on the road against Florida and Vanderbilt. Teams headed up by Johnny Jones are just 4-14 ATS in home games following two straight wins over conference foes. The Gamecocks hit the road following two straight at home but are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons after playing two consecutive home games. This series has been dominated by the road team, which is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. In fact, the road team has won each of the last five straight up. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State -4

The Key: Oklahoma State has lost three of four but all three losses were on the road against quality opponents. Now it's home, where it is 9-1 on the season, and I expect it to bounce back strong. The Cowboys have been an awesome investment at home where they are on a 60-29-4 ATS run. They are 8-0 ATS all-time in Tuesday night home games under coach Ford and have won these by an average score of 78.4 to 56.2. Baylor swept the season series last year, which adds to Oklahoma State's level of motivation. Wins haven't come easy for the Bears on the road in this series as they are just 3-14 in their last 17 visits. Baylor is off a big revenge win over Oklahoma, and the fact it won impressively by 11 points is significant. Consider that the Bears are 9-19 ATS in road games following a double-digit win over a conference foe under coach Drew. They have lost by an average of 6.8 points in this spot. The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Lay the points.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -8.5

The Key: This will be a tough encore for Indiana on the road following a big win over Maryland. The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in road games the last two seasons after covering the number four or five times in a six-game span. Ohio State lost the first meeting at Indiana Jan. 10 so it will be highly motivated. Sneaking past Northwestern Thursday was significant because the Buckeyes are 9-1 ATS the last three seasons when checking in off a road win against a conference foe. They have won by an average of 10.1 points in these contests. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Over 186

The Key: The Heat have finished under the total in 10 straight games, and we are getting a good number here as a result. Miami is 22-11 "over" the last two seasons when the total is 180-189.5. The Bulls are 21-8 "over" in their last 29 home games, including 10-1 this season when they check in with two wins in a three-game span. When the total is 180-189.5 for a Sunday game, playing the "over" on road teams that average six three-point makes per game or more has produced a 46-17 mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 15-6 "over" this season in home games versus teams that average six made three-pointers per game or more. We have seen an average of 206.4 total points scored in these 21 contests.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Hornets Under 185.5

The Key: Each of the season's first three meetings between these teams have gone over the number with at least 189 scored in each.  The Knicks combined with Orlando for 219 points last night, and the Hornets combined with the Cavs for 219 as well. And we're getting a line of just 185.5? Clearly, the books want the money on the over, but we won't oblige them. Prior to last night, the Hornets had held 10 straight foes to 45% shooting or worse with 8 of them making just 39.8% of their shots or fewer. Now that's some serious defense, and I expect a strong defensive effort tonight against a New York team that has really struggled offensively this season. The Knicks were kicked at home by the Hornets Jan. 10 so they'll be looking for revenge here. They know the best way to get it is too shore things up defensively, which is what they had done before last night. They got the win, but allowing the Magic to shoot over 50% serves as a reminder of their last game against Charlotte when they allowed the Hornets to shoot 50% and lost by 28. The Hornets aren't a good offensive team and are in poor offensive form, shooting just 37.6% from the field over their last five games. I expect the struggles to continue as the Knicks turn up the heat. Charlotte is 19-8 under in home games the last 3 seasons after playing a game with a combined score of 205 points or more.

6* Big Ten Blowout on Minnesota -5

The Key: Minnesota has lost six of its first seven in Big Ten play but four of the losses have come on the road. It's been extremely competitive in each of its three conference home games and is 10-2 at home on the season. I the like the Golden Gophers to take care of business here against an Illinois squad that is just 1-4 in true road games. The Fighting Illini are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games going back to last season and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a cover. They're also 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus teams with a winning home record. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on East Carolina +8.5

The Key: Tulsa is off a big win over Memphis and has had just two days to prepare for this contest. It has a bigger game at Tulane on deck Tuesday so it will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand, especially on the road where it is 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. East Carolina has had a week to prepare and has been a nice play at home where it is 4-1 ATS in last five. The offense has struggled
in its last two games so the extra prep time should serve the Pirates well. Besides, they are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in home games after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. They have exploded to win by an average score of 74.4 to 60.9 in this situation.

7* Big East Game of the Week on Xavier -11.5

The Key: Xavier is 8-1 ATS in January home games the last three seasons, and I expect its home dominance to continue in this extremely motivated spot. The Musketeers lost at DePaul earlier this month but are 12-3 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. In addition, you want to back favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games when they are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 4-0 ATS mark this season, a 20-3 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 76-35 ATS mark since 1997. Lay the points.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Raptors/76ers Over 194

The Key: The Raptors have finished under the total in each of their last five games with just 178 total points scored in their last game at Memphis. The 76ers have come in under the number in nine of their last 10 with just 189 total points scored in their last game against the Knicks. Plus, we saw only 184 total points scored when these two teams met in Toronto last week. Given these recent outcomes, odds makers are clearly begging for action on the under. We won't give in. The last meeting between these teams was an aberration. Prior to it, these two had combined for at least 199 points in six straight meetings. When the total is 190.0-199.5, you want to play the over on teams like Toronto that have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last five games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 39-17 (70%) mark the last five seasons. The average line for these games is 194.0, but we have seen an average of 198.7 total points scored. Take the over.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Niagara +11

The Key: This is a tough scheduling spot for Monmouth. The Hawks just played at Penn Wednesday, and they travel to Manhattan Sunday. They were swept by Manhattan last season so the tendency will be to peek ahead to that game. They defeated Niagara by 16 earlier this month so I don't think they'll be giving the Purple Eagles their full attention. Monmouth is 0-6 ATS 15 games or more into the schedule versus weak offensive teams that average 64.0 ppg or less under coach Rice. It is also 0-7 ATS under Rice in home games when playing a third game in a week's span. In addition, you want to back road teams with a win percentage of 20% or worse that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent as doing so has produced a 113-64 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA National TV *CA$H COW* on Bulls +6

The Key: The Spurs are being overvalued on the road against a Chicago team that I believe will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight. The Bulls have lost six of eight, a stretch that caused Derrick Rose to call out the team. I expect them to respond knowing that anything less than an all-out effort won't be good enough tonight. Chicago's biggest issues of late have been on the defensive side of the court, and that's something that can be corrected with better effort. We are now over the halfway point of the season, which bodes well for us tonight as the Bulls are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach Thibodea. They have won these contests by an average score of 95.8 to 91.5. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Under the Radar Game of the Week on Western Carolina +2

The Key: Mercer has played its last three at home and won all three, pounding Samford by 24 last time out. But now it hits the road. The Bears are 3-8 in road/neutral court games this season and 2-5-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. Western Carolina has lost its last two and will be hungry as a result. It is a better team than its 8-11 record might lead you to believe because it has played just seven home games. It is 5-2 in those games. Mercer has outscored its opponents by an average of 5.1 points, but the Catamounts are 14-4 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 4.0 ppg or more under coach Hunter, and they have won these games by an average score of 72.9 to 69.1. The wrong team is favored here. Take Western Carolina.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Missouri State +13.5

The Key: Any time the Bears are off a loss in conference play, it's a good time to back them. Missouri State is 17-6 ATS the last three seasons following a conference defeat, including 8-1 ATS during this span when they are off two straight losses in conference play. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points as the Bears bounce back strong and keep this one within the number.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +11.5

The Key: Atlanta is being overvalued here because it has won 13 straight while covering the spread in the last 12. The fact the Pacers have lost five straight and have failed to cover the spread in their last seven is adding to the value. Consider that road underdogs of 10 points or more that have lost four or five of their last six games and are matched up against a team that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 79-43 (65%) ATS the last five seasons. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Atlanta. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +8.5

The Key: Denver was completely embarrassed at Golden State last night and will come out focused and hungry as a result. The Nuggets have been a strong play at home even against good road teams and are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 home games versus a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. San Antonio is off a convincing win over Utah but is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the points.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina -5

The Key: As if a 1-3 start in conference play isn't enough motivation, South Carolina has dropped 14 straight to Tennessee. The skid ends tonight! The Gamecocks have been good at home where they are 7-2. This is significant because the Volunteers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Tennessee has been expected to win during the majority of its winning streak in the series. In fact, it has been favored in each of the last nine. So it is worth noting that the Gamecocks are now installed as the favorite, and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. In addition, in a matchup of teams with win percentages of .600 to .800, you want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gone under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 61-26 ATS mark since 1997. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Youngstown State +10

The Key: This is a look-ahead spot for Valpo, which has a big showdown at Wisconsin-Green Bay Friday. With that contest on deck, it will be difficult for the Crusaders to give a Youngstown State team they defeated by 15 points earlier this month their complete focus. Prior to that loss, Youngstown State had won or lost by fewer than 10 points in five straight meetings so there is plenty of value in the Penguins catching double digits. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Florida State +4.5

The Key: This isn't a good situation for Clemson. The Tigers are off an upset win at home over Syracuse, but they are 2-12 ATS since 1997 following an upset win at home over a conference opponent, losing these contests by an average score of 75.9 to 58.8. The Seminoles have lost their last three, but they are 24-10 ATS since 1997 following three straight losses in conference play. Florida State has had Clemson's number in recent years. It is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings with the lone loss coming by just four points. It is also worth noting that the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Bucks Over 198.5

The Key: The over is showing value in tonight's Raptors/Bucks battle. The Bucks have finished under the total in 11 straight games, and odds makers have been forced to over adjust the line as a result of all the action coming in on the under for Milwaukee games. Toronto is off a bad upset loss at home to New Orleans, but that is to our benefit. The Raptors are 8-0 "over" the last two seasons in road games following an upset loss at home, and we've seen an average of 218.2 total points scored in these games. The "over" is 5-0 in Toronto's last five versus Central division foes and 4-0 in its last four versus Milwaukee. We have seen 210, 200, 210 and 207 total points scored in those four. Take the over.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Thunder Under 211.0

The Key: The under is showing some nice value in Sunday's Thunder vs. Magic matchup. You want to play the "under" on January road teams that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game if the posted total is 210.0 or greater. Doing so has produced an impressive 31-9 (78%) mark since 1996. The Thunder combined with Golden State for 242 points last game, but they won't get the same kind of help from an Orlando team that averages only 94.9 ppg. Oklahoma City's over/under results have directly correlated with its level of competition. It is 13-3 "under" when playing against teams with a losing record this season, and we have seen just 190.1 total points scored on average in these games. Take the under.

7* Big West Bailout on UC Riverside -110

The Key: This is a tough spot for Hawaii, which is playing its first true road game of the season. The Warriors are 18 games into the schedule and have yet to set foot on true foreign soil. Riverside is 7-2 at home and will be hungry as it looks to end a five-game skid in the series. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Warriors are still expected to be without guard Garrett Nevels, who is the team's second leading scorer. Take Riverside.

6* SEC Annihilator on Missouri -110

The Key: Missouri will be the more motivated team here. It was clobbered 86-37 at Kentucky last time out. And in case that isn't enough motivation, it was kicked 72-45 the last time in faced Tennessee. The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. Tennessee is just 3-11 ATS in lined games this season, including 0-6 ATS when playing its second game in a week. Take Mizzou.

7* Southern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on VMI +1.5

The Key: VMI has lost six of seven but was on the road for six of those. Now it's home, and I expect it to take care of business. The Keydets will be the more motivated side as they seek revenge for a loss at East Tennessee State earlier this month. They should also be the fresher side as they've had the last two days off while East Tennessee State is playing its second road game in three days. The Keydets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 while the Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus teams with a losing record. The Keydets are also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games following three or more consecutive road games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Take VMI.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Thunder +2.5

The Key: This is one of the most motivated spots of the season for the Thunder, who have lost three of four. They were hit hard in the first quarter by Houston last night and played catch up the rest of the way. They will come out a lot more focused and energized from the tip tonight as a result. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue as they had five days off prior to last night's game. Adding to the motivation is the fact that Golden State has won each of the season's first three meetings. The Thunder were embarrassed at Golden State earlier this month and will be out for some serious revenge. The Warriors haven't been quite the same team on the road where they have lost three of their last four. They've also had a rough go in Oklahoma City where they are 1-10 in their last 11. The Thunder are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Thunder.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Nets +10

The Key: Washington is being overvalued following back-to-back impressive wins over the Spurs and Bulls. It knew it had to be on top of its game to get those two, but now it takes a step down in competition and the tendency will be to lose focus. The Wizards are a weak 19-31 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season and 5-15 ATS during this span in home games after a stretch of covers in four or five or their last six games. Brooklyn will be highly motivated tonight as it looks to end a seven-game skid. Despite the losing streak, it has been pretty competitive as the losses have come by an average of just 7.4 points. The Nets are a better team than they've shown lately, and I expect a strong effort here. Brooklyn is 11-2 ATS after two straight double-digit losses over the last three seasons. It is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games going back to the beginning of last season. The Nets are also 21-5 ATS the last three seasons in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Arizona State +5.5

The Key: Utah has been blowing its competition out of the water, but it has been doing so at home. The Utes haven't played a true road game since Dec. 10. Plus, their momentum has been slowed by having not played for a week. ASU is 0-3 in league play but all three losses were on the road. Now it's home, where it is 8-1 on the season, and will be hungry to pick up its first conference win. You want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a cover in a game they lost straight up when they are matched up against an opponent that's off a home win of 20 points or more. Doing so has produced a 38-14 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington -6.5

The Key: Washington has lost its last four but catches the perfect opponent to end its skid. Oregon State is riding high off a big upset win over Arizona and is primed for a letdown as a result. The Huskies are 11-3 ATS off three straight losses in conference play under coach Romar. The Beavers are 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. They have lost these six by 12.5 points on average. Washington is 11-0 in its last 11 home games versus the Beavers with these wins coming by an average of 14.4 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder +1.5

The Key: The Thunder have the edge tonight against a Houston team that is playing its second game in as many nights, its third in four days and 9th in 14 days. The Thunder haven't played since last Friday and will undoubtedly be the fresher and more prepared side. OKC lost the season's first meeting but didn't have Durant or Westbrook for that one. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back road teams that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent if they are playing for just the third time or less in a 10-day span. Doing so has produced a 39-13 ATS mark since 1996. Take the Thunder.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Southern Miss +5.5

The Key: Middle Tennessee State is off a huge 82-58 win over Florida Atlantic, and that win sets up an extremely favorable situation for going against the Blue Raiders. MTSU is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in road games following a win of 20 points or more, and it has lost these six by an average of 3.6 points. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference foe. They've won these on average but only by 3.8 points. MTSU plays at a rather slow tempo, which is significant because So. Miss is 6-0 ATS 15 games or more into the season versus teams that average 53.0 shots per game or less the last two seasons. The Golden Eagles are also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons after a game with a combined score of 115 points or less. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bulls -5.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Washington, which is off a big win over the defending champion Spurs last night. It's asking too much of the Wizards to keep this one close against a more rested and hungry Chicago squad. Not only will the Bulls be fueled by an upset loss to lowly Orlando but also by an embarrassing loss in Washington last week. In a matchup of teams with win percentages of 60% to 75%, you want to back a team off an upset loss in a game in which it was favored by 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 34-11 (76%) ATS mark since 1996. You also want to back favorites that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent when they check in off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Doing so has produced a 60-30 (67%) ATS mark since 1996. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more and have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Ohio +4

The Key: Ohio has been money at home in this spread range, going 8-0 ATS since 1997 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6.0 points. It has won these games outright on average by an average of 3.9 points. The Bobcats were kicked by 15 at Bowling Green last game, but I fully expect them to bounce back strong. Teams headed up by coach Saul Phillips are 7-0 ATS following a loss of 15 points or more and have won these games by an average of 16.9 points. It is also worth noting that the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a cover. Take Ohio.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina -4

The Key: The Tide have rattled off six consecutive wins, which means now is the perfect time to fade them. Consider that Alabama is a dismal 2-21 ATS following six straight wins or more since 1997. The Gamecocks have dropped their last two but are 6-0 ATS at home the last two seasons after two or more consecutive losses and have won these games by an average score of 76.0 to 67.7. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Wizards -1.5

The Key: This is a great spot to back the Wizards. They will be extremely hungry following an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last game. They'll also be motivated by a recent loss to the Spurs in San Antonio. Home court has been good to the Wizards as they are 16-4 at home on the season. They are also an outstanding 25-11 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten Annihilator on Ohio State -9.5

The Key: I'll lay the points with Ohio State at home in what is a highly motivated spot. Not only are the Buckeyes off a loss at Indiana, but they lost both meetings with Michigan last season, including a 10-point loss on their home floor. They'll be out for some serious payback tonight. Michigan has won its last two but is a weak 18-31 ATS in road games off a win over a conference foe under coach Beilein. Ohio State is a rock solid 93-70 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under coach Matta. It is also worth noting, since this line opened at -10.5, that the Buckeyes are even 65-46 ATS when laying 10 or more at home under Matta. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +5

The Key: New Orleans has struggled on the road where it is 6-13 on the season, including 0-4 in its last four. It is also 0-6 on the season in road games against the East. The Pelicans are off a big 11-point win over Southwest division co-leader Memphis, but they are on a 3-20 ATS slide in road following a win of 10 points or more over a division opponent. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Monmouth +4.5

The Key: Rider has been a terrible investment at home in this spread range. In fact, it is 15-44 ATS as a home favorite of 6.0 points or less or pickem since 1997, including 7-30 ATS during this span when laying 3.5 to 6.0. It is also worth noting that the Broncs are 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in home games against teams that have a losing record. Monmouth will be hungry after losing all three of last season's meetings. Take the points with the more motivated side.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Heat +10

The Key: The Heat have had two days to rest up and prepare for this contest after taking it on the chin in Portland, and they will be lacking no motivation as they try to avenge a November 17-point home loss to the Clippers. LA is off a dominant performance against Dallas yesterday, but fatigue should be an issue as the regulars logged considerable playing time. The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. You want to fade favorite of 10 points or more that have won three of their last four games if they carry win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 40-49%. Doing so has produced a 78-42 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Miami is 10-1 ATS the last two seasons after a stretch where it fails to cover the spread six or seven times in an eight-game span. Take the points.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on Butler -2

The Key: Butler will be the more motivated side this afternoon. As if a home loss to Providence isn't enough of a motivator, the Bulldogs were dealt a pair of double-digit losses by Xavier last season. It's payback time! The Musketeers are off a big win an cover over Seton Hall (our Big East Game of the Year), but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a cover. They haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Take Butler.

7* MVC Game of the Year on Southern Illinois -3.5

The Key: Southern Illinois will be the hungrier and more focused team this afternoon as it is still looking for its first conference victory. It will also be fueled by losses in each of its last two meetings with Indiana State. This is a tough scheduling spot for Indiana State as it is playing its third game in seven days. The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS the last two seasons when playing a third game in a week and have lost these by an average score of 72.0 to 63.2. Southern Illinois is excellent on the defensive end where it has held opponents to just 41.9% from the field. This bodes well for us as Indiana State is 1-10 ATS the last two seasons versus teams that hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse. The Salukis are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three home meetings with Indiana State and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. Lay the points.

6* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Washington -10.5

The Key: Washington has lost three straight since starting 11-0 but is in good position to bounce back big here. The Huskies have had six days to gear up for this battle against a team it defeated by 23 points at home last season. Teams headed up by Lorenzo Romar are 23-5 ATS since 1997 in home games when checking in off a road loss in conference play. The Cougars have been a poor investment on the road where they are 6-20-4 ATS in their last 30. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Spurs -5

The Key: This is a great spot for the Spurs who have had the last two days off. In fact, they've had two days off after each of their last three games so they should be fresh here. The Suns, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in four days. Not only will San Antonio be fresher, it will be hungrier following a home loss to Detroit in which it blew an 18 point lead. Adding fuel to the fire is a five-point loss at Phoenix in the season's first meeting. The Spurs don't like losing at home and are 18-6 ATS off a home loss the last three seasons and have won by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska -9.5

The Key: Look for Nebraska to respond following back-to-back losses to start conference play. The Cornhuskers are 9-1 ATS off two straight losses in conference action under coach Tim Miles. Nebraska is a terrific defensive team and should be able to hold Rutgers to a low number tonight. The Scarlet Knights are averaging just 56.5 points in games played away from home on the season and come in ice cold. They've shot 30.2% and 30% in their last two games and are on a 1-9 ATS slide after two straight games of making 33% of their shots or less. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Nebraska-Omaha -3

The Key: This is a bad spot for North Dakota State, which hasn't played a true road game since Dec. 7. It's played just five true road games this season and has lost four of them SU and ATS. Going back to last season, the Bison are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road. They are 3-11 ATS as a road dog or pickem over the last three seasons. Nebraska-Omaha is 5-0 at home and will be lacking no motivation after getting kicked in both of last season's meetings with NDSU. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Also, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Raptors -12

The Key: Charlotte is playing its best basketball of the season, but it runs into a buzz saw tonight. This will be the second game in as many nights for the Hornets, their third in four days and fifth in seven days. They won't have enough left in the tank to content with a Toronto team that has had the last three days off. The Hornets are 23-48 ATS in their last 71 games when playing without a day of rest while the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on three days of rest or more. The Raptors will also be highly motivated because they have lost their last three with the last two losses being ugly. They are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following two straight losses of 15 points or more. Charlotte is 15-29 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog of 10 points or more. Lay the points.

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on Richmond -5.5

The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats, and further fueled by a nine-point loss at George Mason last season, Richmond will take care of business tonight. You want to back favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games when that are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 2-0 ATS mark this season, an 18-3 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 74-35 ATS mark since 1997. George Mason is off a big win over LaSalle but is a dismal 19-40 ATS in its last 59 games following a win. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Illinois +3

The Key: Illinois has lost its last two but both came on the road. Look for the Fighting Illini to bounce back strong at home where they are 7-0 on the season. Teams headed up by John Groce are 19-7 ATS all-time after playing two consecutive road games, including 11-2 ATS if they were an underdog in both games. Maryland is just 5-13 ATS under coach Mark Turgeon in road games following a win against a conference opponent. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bucks/76ers Over 194.5

The Key: Milwaukee has been an unders machine, finishing under the number in each of its last seven, and we are getting a favorable number as a result. It is also to our benefit that Milwaukee is playing the second game of a back-to-back and an eighth game in 13 days as defense is the first thing to suffer for fatigued teams. The Bucks are 21-9 "over" the last two seasons when playing at least eight games in a 14-day span, and we have seen an average of 204.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are on a 36-17 run the last three seasons in home games following an under, and we have seen an average of 202.3 total points scored in this situation. Take the over.

7* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier -6

The Key: Motivated by an upset loss at DePaul and further fueled by losses in both of last season's meetings with Seton Hall, Xavier will take care of business in a big way tonight. The Musketeers have been outstanding at home where they are 8-0 on the season. In terms of the spread, they are an impressive 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games and have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in January home games the past two seasons. They are also 10-1 ATS the last three seasons in home games versus excellent teams like Seton Hall that shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% or worse. They have won these games by an average score of 74.1 to 64.5. It is also worth noting that the Musketeers are 6-0 ATS in their last six Wednesday games. Lay the points.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -2.5

The Key: Minnesota has dropped its last two but both were on the road. Now the Golden Gophers are home where they are 9-0 on the season. 15 games or more into the schedule, Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 4.0 ppg or more under coach Pitino. It has won these contests by an average score of 74.5 to 66.3. Ohio State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games and 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in road games following a stretch of five or six wins in a seven-game span. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that have beaten the spread by 18 total points or more over their last three games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 total points or more in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 20-1 ATS record over the last three seasons. Lay the number.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nuggets/Timberwolves Over 209

The Key: We saw 208 total points scored when these teams played the day after Christmas, and we saw this amount despite very poor shooting from both teams. In fact, they combined to shoot barely 40% overall and just 17.6% from 3-point range. The pace of the game was very fast, which has been the norm when these teams get together. That's why we've seen an average of 226.4 total points scored in the last five meetings. The "over" is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota. With a fast pace and both teams shooting the ball just a little bit better, this one should find its way over the total.