Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Texas Tech/Gonzaga *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -4 

The Key: This feels like the year of the Gonzaga Bulldogs.  They have their most talented team yet and average nearly 90 PPG.  Not even Texas Tech’s vaunted defense will be able to slow them down much.  And the problem for the Red Raiders is that they won’t be able to score with the Zags.  There’s just not much firepower to their offense outside Culver, and they will be exposed by Gonzaga’s balance.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Big 12.  Take Gonzaga. 

7* Hornets/Lakers NBA *BAILOUT* on Charlotte -2.5 

The Key: The Hornets have won 4 straight now and are feeling good about themselves, especially after knocking off two of the best teams in the NBA in the Raptors and Spurs in the process.  They are now just 1.5 games behind the Heat for 8th in the East.  They need to keep winning if they want to make the playoffs.  The Lakers won’t offer much resistance tonight considering they have lost 13 of their last 17 games overall and are missing several players due to injury.  Take Charlotte. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 

The Key: The Nuggets are in a brutal situation tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after losing in Houston last night.  The Thunder will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and should handle their business tonight.  They want to avoid the season sweep after losing their first 3 meetings with the Nuggets this season, so they will be extra hungry here.  The Nuggets are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* Auburn/UNC *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -5.5 

The Key: Auburn relies too much on the 3 ball.  They are hit or miss.  North Carolina can run with them, or they can slow it down if they want to.  But the difference in this game is going to be rebounding.  The Tar Heels are the single-best rebounding team in the country.  Auburn struggles to rebound at times.  The Tar Heels will get several second chance opportunities that will be the difference, and they’ll limit Auburn to one shot.  They should also get several easy transition opportunities on long rebounds from missed Auburn 3-pointers.  Look for the Tar Heels to run away with this one.  Auburn is 1-9 ATS against dominant rebounding teams that average 7 or more boards than their opponents per game over the last 2 seasons.  UNC is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 against SEC teams, while Auburn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 against ACC teams.  Take UNC. 

6* LSU/Michigan State *CA$H COW* on LSU +6.5 

The Key: Michigan State almost never faces a team as athletic as LSU.  That athleticism will be a shock to the system for the Spartans, who are getting too much respect from the books tonight.  They’ve had a very easy schedule getting Bradley and Minnesota in the first 2 round.  LSU will be a different animal.  This is an LSU team that knocked off another Big Ten team in Maryland last round.  LSU is 28-6 this season with 5 of its 6 losses coming by 6 points or less.  So, the Tigers are basically 33-1 ATS if all of their games were lined at +6.5 this season.  Take LSU. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Los Angeles Clippers +9 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown off their win over the Rockets on Tuesday.  They basically have the East and the top overall seed already wrapped up.  They can afford several more losses before they have to worry.  The Clippers are motivated to get the 5th seed or higher and hopefully set up a matchup with the Blazers in the first round.  The Clippers are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall and cannot be tamed right now.  They have won 3 straight meetings with the Bucks, including their 128-126 win in their first meeting this season at home.  The Bucks have a ton of injuries right now that have them well short of full strength.  They aren’t winning by double-digits tonight.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Purdue/Tennessee Sweet 16 *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -1 

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are 31-5 this season.  They would be bigger favorites today had they covered their first two games against Colgate and Iowa.  They had Iowa down by 25.  After letting them come back, look for them to keep the foot on the gas for 40 minutes tonight against Purdue.  They know they need to and they are clearly the more talented team in this matchup if both teams play to their potential.  All 5 starters for the Vols average more than 10 PPG.  They are the definition of team basketball.  Purdue needs Carsen Edwards to go off every night to win.  And while he has the first two games of this tournament, the Vols will come up with a game plan to try and make someone else beat them.  He won’t be going off against Tennessee like he did against Old Dominion and Villanova.  The Vols are 14-3 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Pacers/Thunder ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -6 

The Key: The Thunder have lost 5 of their last 6 and are now just 0.5 games ahead of the Spurs for 8th place in the West.  This is a team that was looked at as a contender just a few weeks ago.  And they know it’s important to have a big finish now to get the 5th seed, which would mean a date with the banged-up Blazers in the first round.  Look for them to turn it on tonight at home against the Pacers.  They want revenge from blowing nearly a 20-point lead to the Pacers two weeks ago to lost 106-108 at Indiana.  It’s a Pacers team that has been atrocious on the road, going 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games while losing by 11 PPG on average.  Take Oklahoma City. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Cleveland Cavaliers +6 

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are about as healthy as they have been all season.  The Boston Celtics will be without Kyrie Irving, and they could also be without both Al Horford and Jayson Tatum, who are both questionable tonight.  It’s no wonder they are struggling with all these injuries.  The Celtics have lost 4 straight coming in and are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The Cavs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 Tuesday games.  The Cavs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic +2 

The Key: The Orlando Magic are one game behind the Heat for 8th place and only 2.5 games out of 6th place in the East.  They only have nine games remaining, so they need a big finish to make the playoffs.  They’ve certainly given themselves a chance by winning four straight coming in.  The 76ers are beatable on the road as they are just 18-17 SU & 15-20 ATS on the highway.  And they’ve played the 76ers tough, losing by 1 and 8 on the road, and beating them by 5 at home in their 3 meetings this season.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS after scoring 120 points or more this season.  The Magic are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 against Atlantic division teams.  Take Orlando. 

7* Liberty/VA Tech East Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -8.5 

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are a dangerous team now that starting PG and floor general Justin Robinson has returning from injury to join this team in the NCAA Tournament.  It showed how much they missed him in the first half against Saint Louis as the Hokies stormed out to a 22-point lead by the break and simply coasted to the finish line.  Liberty needed a big comeback from double-digits down in the 2nd half to beat Mississippi State in their opener.  That will have taken a lot out of them.  I’ll back the fresher, more talented team tonight in what should be a double-digit blowout in the Hokies’ favor.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, and they’re winning by 17 PPG in this spot.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* Villanova/Purdue South Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova +3.5 

The Key: It’s rare that you’ll see a higher seed have home-court advantage over a lower seed.  But that’s the case here when Villanova meets Purdue in Hartford, Connecticut Saturday night in the round of 32.  And the Wildcats have all the momentum, winning the Big East regular season title, and then winning the Big East Tournament.  They have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall coming in.  And they were more dominant in their 61-57 win over St Mary’s than the final score would indicate.  They don’t mind grinding it out, which is exactly what the Big Ten is all about, so they’’ll make up well with the Boilermakers.  Purdue has lost twice to Minnesota in its last 4 games and is vulnerable.  The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games.  Villanova is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 against Big Ten teams.  Purdue is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 against Big East teams.  Take Villanova. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks +8 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a huge comeback win over the Boston Celtics.  They beat the Hornets and Bucks in their previous 2 games as well and are in a prime letdown spot now against the Atlanta Hawks.  The 76ers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now because they are on a 6-game winning streak.  But the Hawks won’t go down without swinging, and they’ve shown that here down the stretch.  The Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They just upset the Jazz as nearly identical 7.5-point home dogs.  The 76ers are 7-19 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins this season.  The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Wofford/Kentucky Midwest Region *CA$H COW* on Wofford +5.5 

The Key: The Wofford Terriers showed why they were a Top 25 team coming into the tournament and why they were deserving of a good seed.  They destroyed Seton Hall 84-68, cooling off what had previously been a red hot Pirates team.  And now I look for them to upset Kentucky, which is still missing leading scorer PJ Washington and is very vulnerable without him.  Washington averages 14.8 PPG & 7.6 RPG while shooting 52% from the field and 42% from 3-point range.  Wofford is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games off an ATS win.  Take Wofford. 

6* Iona/UNC *CA$H COW* on UNC -22 

The Key: No analysis Friday. 

7* Colgate/Tennessee NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -17.5 

The Key: No analysis Friday. 

6* UC-Irvine/K-State *CA$H COW* on UC-Irvine +4.5 

The Key: No analysis Friday. 

7* Seton Hall/Wofford Midwest Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Wofford -2.5 

The Key: The Wofford Terriers are 29-4 this season and one of the best teams in the country that you haven’t heard about.  They’ll put their names on the map with a win and cover over Seton Hall Thursday.  The Terriers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Wofford. 

6* Fairleigh Dickinson/Gonzaga West Region *CA$H COW* on Gonzaga -28 

The Key: The loss to St. Mary’s in the WCC Championship will have awoken the sleeping giant Gonzaga Bulldogs.  They’ll keep their foot on the gas from start to finish here against Farleigh Dickinson, which is one of the worst teams in the NCAA Tournament field.  Farleigh Dickinson lost by 35 at Rutgers in non-conference, which is basically all you need to know about this team and what Gonzaga is capable of.  Take Gonzaga. 

6* Florida/Nevada West Region *CA$H COW* on Nevada -2.5 

The Key: Nevada has been going through the motions in the regular season while still posting a 29-4 record.  Now that the tournament is upon us, expect their ‘A Game’ starting with this showdown with Florida.  And their ‘A Game’ is good enough to beat anyone in the country.  This is a team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year and brought almost everyone back.  Nevada is 17-2 ATS in its lsat 19 games off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 points or more.  Florida is 0-7 ATS against teams who outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season.  Take Nevada. 

7* Heat/Spurs Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +6.5 

The Key: You’re definitely having to pay a tax to back the Spurs tonight after they have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  And this is a huge letdown spot for the Spurs, who are coming off an upset home win over the Warriors.  I look for them to come out flat tonight.  The Miami Heat are playing just as well as the Spurs right now.  The Heat are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their only losses coming to the Rockets, Raptors and Bucks.  The Heat are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 against southwest division teams, including 8-0 ATS against them this season.  Miami is 42-15-2 ATS in its last 59 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Miami. 

7* Dayton/Colorado ESPN 2 *BAILOUT* on Colorado -4 

The Key: The Colorado Buffaloes are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this season.  This is a long travel spot for the Dayton Flyers.  And the Buffaloes have been even better at home down the stretch, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Dayton is 1-8 ATS against good shooting teams that make 45% or better after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Colorado. 

6* Pacers/Clippers NBA TV *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -4.5 

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in a tough spot tonight.  They’ll be playing for a second consecutive day after a tough loss in Portland last night, 98-106.  Now they have to face a freight train in the Clippers, who are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and trying to hang on to the final playoff spot in the West.  Los Angeles is 24-11 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Indiana is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Wright State/Clemson NIT *CA$H COW* on Wright State +14 

The Key: Clemson thought they’d be going to the NCAA Tournament this season.  As a result, they’re disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  And I don’t think they should be laying 14 points to a game Wright State team that is happy to be here.  Wright State is 6-0 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Horizon League.  Take Wright State. 

7* Pacers/Blazers ESPN *BAILOUT* on Indiana +4.5 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers will be without CJ McCollum for the next week with a knee injury that he suffered last time out against the Spurs.  The Blazers are a much more pedestrian team when they are missing either McCollum or Lillard.  They go together like peanut butter and jelly.  The Pacers should be able to pull off the upset tonight.  The Pacers beat the Thunder two games back and only lost by 2 at Denver last time out, so they’ve shown they can play with the best the West has to offer.  Take Indiana. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings -6.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Michigan/MSU Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +1 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +9 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +2 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* SDSU/Utah State MWC *CA$H COW* on San Diego State +6.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* San Diego State/Nevada MWC *CA$H COW* on San Diego State +11 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* Auburn/South Carolina SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina +8 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Nebraska/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -8 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss -3.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation from Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* UConn/South Florida AAC *CA$H COW* on South Florida +2 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation from Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* Arkansas/Florida SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -3 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation from Wednesday through Sunday. 

7* MEAC Game of the Year on NC A&T -5.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -1.5 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday. 

6* Oklahoma State/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -4 

The Key: No analysis due to being on vacation Wednesday through Sunday.  

7* Blazers/Clippers NBA *BAILOUT* on Portland -2 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers come in on 2 days’ rest and will be ready to go against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their big win over Boston last night.  I’ll back the fresher team here in the Blazers to win and cover this late-night game Tuesday.  The Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Los Angeles.  Take Portland. 

7* Pepperdine/Gonzaga WCC *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -23.5 

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs just don’t have any let up in them.  And they won’t tonight as they’ve been off since March 2nd and will be hungry to hit the court for the WCC semifinals.  The Pepperdine Waves have been a great story, winning 3 games in 3 days, but their run comes to an end tonight in blowout fashion.  They already lost to the Bulldogs by 28 win their first meeting.  And now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 5 days, making this already difficult matchup that much more difficult.  Take Gonzaga. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on San Antonio Spurs -1.5 

The Key: The Spurs come in on 3 days’ rest and off 4 straight wins and covers.  The Bucks come in on the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days.  The situation really favors the Spurs, who are 25-7 at home this season.  Take San Antonio. 

7* SMU/South Florida AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on South Florida -2 

The Key: The South Florida Bulls are 14-4 at home this season.  It’s Senior Day and they will win this game against SMU, which just hasn’t played well at all here down the stretch in going 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  The Mustangs are also just 2-7 on the road this season.  Take South Florida. 

7* WCC Tournament Game of the Year on San Francisco -7.5 

The Key: No analysis for Saturday. 

6* Big East Game of the Day on Xavier -2.5 

The Key: No Analysis for Saturday. 

6* Pac-12 Game fo the Day on Arizona -1.5 

The Key: No Analysis for Saturday. 

7* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6.5 

The Key: The Nuggets are only one game behind the Warriors for first place in the Western Conference.  They face a Warriors team that is really struggling right now having lost 5 of their last 8.  The Warriors have killed bettors even worse, going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  DeMarcus Cousins is proving to be a bad fit because teams take advantage of his terrible defense, and the Nuggets will do the same tonight.  The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record.  Take Denver. 

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Drake -2.5 

The Key: The Drake Bulldogs (23-8) have been the single-most underrated team in college basketball this season.  They have the best ATS record (21-6-2) of any team in the country.  And now they’re only laying 2.5 points to Illinois State in the 2nd round of the MVC Tournament.  The Bulldogs got a bye yesterday, while Illinois State won a 5-point game over Evansville.  That extra rest the Bulldogs have will certainly work in their favor tonight.  Drake is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games.  Take Drake. 

7* Cincinnati/UCF AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on UCF -2 

The Key: The UCF Knights are coming on strong to close the season as they try to punch their tickets into the big dance.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Their only loss? A 55-60 setback at Cincinnati as 7.5-point dogs.  Well, they now get their chance to avenge that defeat tonight at home on Senior Night.  That’s why I’m not concerned about a possible letdown off their huge 69-64 upset win at Houston as 7-point dogs over the weekend.  They’ll get up for Cincinnati tonight.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, loving on the edge with 4 wins by 5 points or less.  Their luck runs out tonight against a UCF team that simply wants it more.  The Knights are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  UCF is 8-0 ATS after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in its last game over the last 2 seasons.  The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.  Take UCF Thursday. 

6* Oregon/Washington State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Oregon -6.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are coming off two straight blowout wins by 28 over Arizona State and by 26 over Arizona.  They should be able to go on the road and handle Washington State, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall losing by 13 at home to Utah, by 48 at Stanford and by 7 at lowly Cal.  Oregon already beat Washington State by 20 at home, which is another reason they should be able to cover 6.5 on the road.  The Ducks are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games off a conference home win.  The Cougars are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games off a loss.  Take Oregon. 

7* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Pelicans UNDER 230 

The Key: The Jazz and Pelicans just squared off two nights ago in Utah with the Pelicans pulling the 115-112 upset.  That game saw 227 combined points.  Now we have a total of 230 in the rematch, and I think it’s too high.  The 2nd meeting in these home-and-home situations is almost always lower scoring than the 1st because of the familiarity of the teams.  The same thing happens in the NBA playoffs, and it applies in the regular season as well.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 or more revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more against an opponent that’s off an upset win as an underdog are 34-9 over the last 5 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons -5 

The Key: The Detroit Pistons are rolling right now having won 9 of their last 11 with their only two losses coming on the road at San Antonio and Boston.  The Minnesota Timberwolves are just 9-24 on the road this season and 1-8 in their last 9 road games.  While the Pistons come in on 2 days’ rest, the Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pistons are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Timberwolves.  Take Detroit. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies +6 

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies have been a really tough out.  They beat the Mavs by 30 on the road and followed that up with only a 4-point road loss at OKC in which they blew a late lead.  And in their last 9 games, they have only been beaten by more than 6 points once.  That’s important considering this 6-point spread.  The first 2 lines in the first 2 meetings this season were Portland -5 at home and Memphis -3 at home.  Now Portland is a 6-point favorite at Memphis.  I like the price we are getting with the Grizzlies at home tonight.  Take Memphis. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +10.5 

The Key: The Boston College Eagles have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have won 3 straight home games, including an upset win over Louisville.  And they haven’t lost any of their last 6 home games by more than 6 points.  Now they’re catching 10.5 points at home against a UNC team that is primed for a letdown.  They will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against Duke this weekend.  Boston College is 7-0 ATS off a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Boston College. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Brooklyn Nets -4.5 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are in a critical stretch right now if they want to make the playoffs.  They have home games against the Mavs, Cavs, and Pistons as well as a road game at Atlanta in their next four games.  Then they’ll be going on a brutal 7-game road trip.  They need to win all 4 of these games, especially after losing 3 straight coming in.  It starts tonight against the Mavs, who are just 6-24 on the road this season.  The Mavs are also 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games coming in.  They’ve rarely even been competitive as all 6 losses came by 9 points or more.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* Northwestern/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -5 

The Key: Brad Underwood has done a tremendous job of keeping his team focused and playing hard here down the stretch trying to improve as a young squad.  The Fighting Illini had a lot of breaks not go their way in the first half of the season, but they’ve stuck with it and have now gone 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS in their last nine games overall in Big Ten play.  That includes wins over NCAA Tournament teams in Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State with two of those three on the road even.  Now they want to avenge their 66-68 loss at Northwestern in their first meeting this season.  They should be able to against a Wildcats team that is just ready for the season to be over.  They are 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a 12-point home loss to Minnesota on Thursday.  The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS off 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.  Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a double-digit home loss.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Illinois. 

6* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +13.5 

The Key: The Pelicans are now 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall after winning 130-116 in Phoenix last night.  That blowout allowed them to not play their starters too heavy of minutes, and they should still be fresh in Denver tonight.  Fresh enough to cover this huge 13.5-point spread as the Pelicans continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record.  Denver is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 against NBA Southwest teams.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Nuggets, not once losing by more than 6 points.  Take New Orleans. 

6* UNC/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Clemson +4.5 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament sitting at 17-11 this season.  They could really use a signature win at home here against No. 5 North Carolina.  Clemson is 12-3 SU at home this season and has played UNC very tough in recent meetings.  They pulled the 82-78 upset at home last year, only lost by 8 on the road, and lost by 3 at home in OT in their last 3 meetings with the Tar Heels.  Clemson is 11-2 ATS in home games off a win over the last 2 seasons.  The Tigers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Clemson. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama +2 

The Key: Alabama is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament at 17-11 on the season.  They picked up a big road win at South Carolina last time out, and now they could really use an upset victory over No. 13 LSU to really cement their place in the big dance.  That’s why I know we’re going to get a big effort from the Crimson Tide at home Saturday.  And they have been great at home this year, going 10-3 SU in their 13 home games.  Alabama is also 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with LSU.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with LSU.  Take Alabama. 

7* Clippers/Kings NBA *BAILOUT* on Sacramento -3.5 

The Key: The Kings are now 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  They have recently losses by 1 to Milwaukee, by 2 at Golden State and by 2 at Denver, as well as an upset win at Oklahoma City.  They have been through the gauntlet.  Now they face a lesser team in the Clippers who they are actually trailing in the playoff hunt, making this a must-win game for them at home tonight.  Expect them to give a big effort that should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS as home favorites this season. Sacramento is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games.  Take Sacramento. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Oregon State -4 

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers have an outside shot to make the tournament at 17-9 on the season and 9-5 in Pac-12 play.  The Arizona Wildcats are playing for nothing but pride.  Arizona has gone just 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall with its two wins both coming at home against lowly Cal and Stanford.  Oregon State is 10-3 at home this season.  The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Beavers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Arizona is 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  Take Oregon State. 

7* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -5 

The Key: Villanova has won 10 straight home games all by 5 points or more.  The Wildcats have won 6 straight home games against Marquette with 5 of those by 10 points or more.  I think the Wildcats get their revenge from a 1-point road loss at Marquette earlier this season.  Take Villanova. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat +9.5 

The Key: The Miami Heat will be hungry for their first victory coming out of the All-Star Break tonight.  And they’ll be hungry to avenge a tough 118-120 road loss at Golden State on February 10th earlier this month as 13.5-point dogs.  Now they are 9.5-point home dogs in the rematch, and I love the price on them tonight.  The Warriors are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall and were fortunate to cover at Charlotte last time out getting a late 3-pointer by Steph Curry which proved to be the difference between covering and not covering.  The Warriors continue to get too much respect from the books tonight.  Golden State is 6-18 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Take Miami. 

6* Maryland/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Penn State +2 

The Key: Penn State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  The Nittany Lions beat Nebraska by 24 at home, upset Illinois on the road, upset Michigan at home, and upset Northwestern on the road.  The home team is 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings between Maryland and Penn State.  Take Penn State. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +12 

The Key: LSU is coming off a massive 82-80 upset victory over Tennessee on Saturday.  It’s now a letdown spot for them, and they could be without starting PG Tremont Waters again.  Texas A&M has been far from an easy out.  The Aggies are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They only lost by 4 at Ole Miss and by 7 at South Carolina.  They upset Missouri on the road, Arkansas on the road, Alabama at home and also beat Georgia by 17 at home.  They are playing well enough to stay within this 12-point spread, especially given the letdown spot for the Tigers.  They Aggies also want to avenge a 15-point home loss to LSU back when they weren’t playing well on January 30th.  LSU is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons.  Texas A&M is 8-2 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this season.  The Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.  Take Texas A&M. 

6* Celtics/Raptors Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Toronto -3.5 

The Key: This one is as easy as it gets tonight.  The home team is 10–0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the Celtics and Raptors.  The Raptors are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Boston.  Take Toronto. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks +12.5 

The Key: The Houston Rockets are in a big letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off an upset win over the Golden State Warriors even without James Harden.  Now they have to host the Atlanta Hawks and won’t be nearly as hungry to face them as they were the Warriors.  And Harden is still questionable to return.  It’s a Hawks team that has covered 3 of their last 4 and is trying to win games.  Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in road games off a home game this season.  Houston is 6-17 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Houston is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS win.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Stanford/Arizona Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Arizona -5 

The Key: The price is right to back the Arizona Wildcats tonight after losing 7 of their last 8 both straight up and against the spread.  Now they’re laying a short number at home against a Stanford team they already beat 75-70 on the road.  They should be able to win by more than 5 at home in the rematch.  Stanford’s last two road games have been very ugly as they lost by 18 at Arizona State and by 23 at Oregon.  The Cardinal are 2-10 ATS in road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 3 seasons.  The Wildcats are 18-0 SU in their last 18 meetings with Stanford.  Take Arizona. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -3.5 

The Key: The situation favors the Miami Heat tonight.  They had yesterday off following a tough 4-point loss at Philadelphia on Thursday.  Detroit is playing the second of a back-to-back after winning a 125-122 shootout at Atlanta last night.  The Pistons are 2-11 ATS against teams that average 3 or more rebounds per game than their opponents this season.  The home team is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Pistons.  Take Miami. 

6* Missouri Valley Game of the Day on Missouri State -6.5 

The Key: Missouri State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games overall.  Its only two losses both came to Northern Iowa. They have beaten the best the MVC has to offer during this stretch with road wins over Loyola and Valparaiso, as well as home wins over Illinois State and Southern Illinois.  They already beat Indiana State by 15 on the road this season and now are only laying 6.5 points at home.  Indiana State has recent road losses to Illinois State by 14, Southern Illinois by 15 and Bradley by 29.  The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  Indiana State is 3-10 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  The Bears are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take Missouri State. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Purdue -6 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been broken since losing their most important player in Isaac Copeland to injury.  They already had no bench, so it puts even more pressure on the starters.  The Huskers are just 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only wins came at home against Minnesota by 1 and Northwestern by 9.  They were just blown out by 24 at Penn State, which 5 of their last 6 losses have now come by double-digits.  Purdue is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall and should blow Nebraska out of the building tonight.  They already beat Nebraska by 19 at home this season, so asking them to cover this short number on the road isn’t asking too much.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home gams.  The Huskers are 1-10-1 ATS in this last 12 games following a loss.  Take Purdue. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls +8 

The Key: After going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final 5 games before the break, the betting public is quick to jump on the Orlando Magic coming out of the break.  But we see this all the time.  A team with momentum has a long break and then comes out flat.  They don’t want the break when they are playing well.  I think that will be the case for the Magic tonight.  They are now laying 8 points when they haven’t been favored by more than 6 points in any other game this season.  Simply put, it’s getting pricey to back the Magic now.  The Bulls have shown some fight in winning 3 of their last 8 games straight up.  They beat the Grizzlies by 12 at home, upset the Nets by 19 on the road and upset the Heat by 16 on the road.  They have actually been playing better on the road than at home.  The underdog is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  Take Chicago. 

6* Oregon State/UCLA NCAAB *BAILOUT* on Oregon State +2 

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are 16-8 now with a chance to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  The UCLA Bruins are 13-13 on the season with not much to play for.  And that showed as they lost by 24 in their last game to Stanford and are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Their only win in cover came in overtime at California, the worst team in the Pac-12.  Oregon State is 6-0 ATS off 2 consecutive home games this season.  UCLA is 0-7 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Beavers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Oregon State. 

6* Kings/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on Sacramento +12.5 

The Key: The Sacramento Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season.  And now they’re catching 12.5 points against a Warriors team that they have played tough in recent meetings.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with an outright win and losses by 4, 5 and 1 point against the Warriors.  Sacramento is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Golden State is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 Thursday games.  The Warriors are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Take Sacramento. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCF +8 

The Key: Cincinnati’s 21-4 record has it laying way too many points too often.  That’s why the Bearcats are just 4-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  And they are laying too many points to UCF tonight.  This is a UCF team on the bubble and looking for another signature win tonight.  The Knights are playing well having gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take UCF. 

7* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -2 

The Key: The Syracuse Orange are coming off a bad loss at NC State.  They’ve had a full week to correct their mistakes having last played on February 13th.  They’ll be fresh and ready to go tonight as they host the Louisville Cardinals, who last played on February 16th in a narrow 1-point home win over Clemson.  The Orange are 12-4 at home this season and holding foes to just 59.4 PPG and 38.4% shooting.  Syracuse is 11-2 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss.  The Orange are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Syracuse. 

7* Kentucky/Missouri ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Missouri +12 

The Key: The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off their biggest win of the season over No. 1 Tennessee over the weekend.  Now that sets them up for a big letdown spot tonight at Missouri.  The Tigers have gone a respectable 9-5 at home this season.  They have only lost once in 14 home games by more than 10 points.  The Wildcats played LSU before Tennessee and now have Auburn on deck, so this is clearly a sandwich game for them.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Missouri. 

7* AAC Game of the Week on Tulane +18.5 

The Key: This is a big potential flat spot for the Houston Cougars.  They are coming off a brutal stretch of 5 straight tough games in the AAC.  They won at Tulsa, UCF and UConn, while also beating Temple and Cincinnati at home.  They have basically wrapped up the AAC title already thanks to those wins.  And now they must face the team in last place in the conference in Tulane.  They probably feel like they can just show up and win.  And while that may be the case, just showing up won’t allow them to cover this ridiculous 18.5-point spread.  Tulane has been playing much more competitively of late with 3 covers in their last 5 games.  And they are looking at this game as their championship game with Houston coming to town. Last year, Tulane upset Houston 81-72 as 7-point home dogs.  The Green Wave are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take Tulane. 

6* Pac-12 Game of the Day on Stanford PK 

The Key: Stanford wants to avenge its ugly 70-92 road loss at UCLA.  The Cardinal have been playing well since that defeat.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games and have home wins over ASU, Colorado and USC since that defeat, as well as road wins at Oregon State, Cal and Washington State.  The Bruins are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Cardinal are simply the better team right now as they’ve managed to improve throughout the season, while the Bruins have back tracked.  UCLA is 0-6 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Stanford is 6-0 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  Take Stanford. 

7* Gonzaga/San Diego WCC *BAILOUT* on San Diego +16.5 

The Key: The San Diego Toreros only lost by 16 at Gonzaga as 23-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are getting 16.5 points here at home in their 2nd meeting.  I believe it’s too much.  San Diego has played Gonzaga as tough as anyone in the conference here of late.  The Toreros only lost by 5 as 11.5-point home dogs last year and by 10 as 19.5-point road dogs.  So they have a track record of playing the Zags tough.  Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take San Diego. 

6* Big 12 Game of the Day on Baylor +7.5 

The Key: I think the price is right to back the Baylor Bears today.  They are getting no respect after losing 2 of their last 3, while Texas Tech is getting a lot of respect after winning and covering each of their last 3.  Baylor beat Texas Tech by 11 at home in their first meeting this year.  And Baylor’s recent struggles can be attributed to an injury to Makai Mason more than anything.  But now the Bears are back to being healthy and one of the best teams in the Big 12.  Baylor is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.  The Bears are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games against good defensive teams that allow 57 or fewer points per game.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots this season.  Take Baylor. 

7* Ivy League Game of the Year on Princeton -1.5 

The Key: Princeton has been on the road all month.  The Tigers have played their last 4 games on the road, losing their last two.  They come into this game hungry for a victory as they will be playing just their 7th home game of the season, which makes their 12-7 record that much more impressive.  Now they host a rival in Harvard that they have owned at home.  Princeton has won 18 of its last 21 home meetings with Harvard.  Harvard is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games as a road dog of 3 points or less or PK.  The Crimson are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Harvard has played 5 straight home games and will now be on the road for the first time since January 21st.  Take Princeton. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks -8 

The Key: It’s a great situation to fade the New York Knicks tonight.  They have lost 18 straight games and now they are running on fumes.  They’ll be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are just ready to get to the All-Star Break.  The Hawks have pulled off outright upsets in 3 of their last 6 games coming in and continue to play hard.  I like the fact that they play at the fasted pace in the NBA, which should help them tire the Knicks out early and allow them to pull away in the 2nd half.  The Knicks are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Houston/UConn AAC *CA$H COW* on Connecticut +9 

The Key: It’s a great situation to fade the Houston Cougars tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season with a 65-58 home victory over Cincinnati that gives them the inside track to winning the AAC.  The Huskies have been playing a lot of teams tough here of late, which is why they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  They only lost by 2 at Cincinnati, by 6 at Tulsa, by 6 at UCF and by 7 at Memphis.  At home, they beat ECU by 24, Tulane by 16, Wichita State by 20 and SMU by 12 in their last 4 home games, going 4-0 ATS.  Don’t be surprised to see them pull off the upset Thursday night in a clear letdown spot for Houston.  The Huskies are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Take UConn. 

6* ASU/Colorado Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Colorado -1 

The Key: The Colorado Buffalos are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They beat Oregon by 22 at home, and then upset both UCLA by 11 and USC by 4 on the road.  They are playing well right now and catch Arizona State in a tough spot.  The Sun Devils are coming off a big win over first-place Washington and are primed for a letdown now.  They have lost 2 of their last 3 road games, including a 14-point loss at Stanford.  And Colorado is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home meetings with Arizona State.  The Buffaloes want to avenge their road loss at ASU in their first meeting this season as well.  Colorado is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.  The Sun Devils are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The home team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Colorado. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 

The Key: The Miami Heat are a tired, beaten up team right now.  They will be playing their 5th straight road game and their 4th road game in 6 days tonight.  Now they have to go up against a Dallas Mavericks team that has been tremendous at home this season.  The Mavericks are 20-8 SU & 19-8-1 ATS at home this season.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss.  Dallas is 46-22-1 ATS in its last 69 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  Take Dallas. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Wake Forest +18 

The Key: Florida State is in a big letdown spot tonight after their overtime victory over Louisville over the weekend.  The Seminoles are laying too many points because they are a hot team right now have won 5 straight and covered 4 of those.  Wake Forest is good enough to stay within 18 points today.  And the Demon Deacons have a big hidden edge here as they have had a full week off since their last game on February 5th.  They will be hungry to hit the floor against the Seminoles tonight.  FSU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.  Take Wake Forest. 

7* NBA Total of the Month on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 210 

The Key: The Spurs and Grizzlies are notorious for playing in low-scoring games.  In fact, each of their last 8 meetings have seen 207 or fewer combined points and an average of just 193.5 PPG.  That’s about 17 points less than this 210-point total.  The Grizzlies play at the slowest pace in the entire NBA and will control the tempo at home today, just as they did in their 96-86 home win over the Spurs in their last meeting.  Take the UNDER. 

6* NCAAB Game of the Day on St. Joe’s -1 

The Key: St. Joe’s wants to avenge its worse loss of the season in a 47-73 loss at St. Bonaventure on January 9th.  But the Hawks have been playing their best basketball of the season of late, especially at home.  They are coming off a 30-point home win over Saint Louis and are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games while also beating Davidson, which may be the best team in the Atlantic 10.  St. Bonaventure is coming off a 30-point home loss to VCU.  The Bonnies are 1-9 ATS off a game with 9 or less assists over the last 2 seasons.  The Bonnies are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against at team with a winning home record.  The Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Take St. Joe’s. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -10 

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are back home in their comfort zone hungry for a win after dropping 3 straight road games.  They are also on 2 days’ rest, so they will be fresh unlike the Miami Heat.  The Heat now have to play in elevation a night after laying it all on the line in a 118-120 road loss at Golden State.  They don’t stand much of a chance given this terrible spot for them.  The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games after a road trip of 7 days or more.  The Nuggets are 23-4 SU & 19-8 ATS at home this season.  Take Denver. 

7* Virginia/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina +1 

The Key: Virginia lost at Duke and needed OT to beat NC State in its two toughest road games thus far this season.  And the Cavaliers will now face another stiff road test here at UNC.  The Tar Heels are 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  And I think they aren’t getting the respect they deserve as home dogs here to Virginia.  It’s partly because they needed OT to beat Miami last game, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Virginia.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last 3 seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  The Cavaliers couldn’t keep up with Duke’s firepower on Saturday, and now they have to deal with a potent UNC offense that averages 91.6 PPG at home this season.  The Tar Heels are 9-0 ATS in home games against a team that wins more than 80% of its games on the season over the last 3 years.  Take North Carolina. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Orlando Magic -1.5 

The Key: The Orlando Magic are coming on strong as they try and move closer to the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with wins over the Pacers, Nets, Timberwolves and Bucks, three playoff teams.  Their only loss came to the Oklahoma City Thunder after blowing a fourth quarter lead.  And now they face an Atlanta Hawks team that is coming off back-to-back home losses to Toronto by 18 and Charlotte by 9.  The Hawks are just 8-15 SU & 7-16 ATS at home this year and giving up 118.1 PPG on their home floor.  The Magic beat the Hawks 122-103 on the road in their lone meeting this season on January 21st.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.  Take Orlando. 

6* Cincinnati/Houston ESPN *CA$H COW* on Houston -3.5 

The Key: The Houston Cougars are a remarkable 31-0 SU in their last 31 home games.  They put the nation’s longest home winning streak on the line today against Cincinnati.  The AAC title is also up for grabs as both teams come in at 9-1 in conference play.  Houston is 16-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 17.5 PPG.  The Cougars are 8-0 ATS against teams that outscore teams by 8 or more points per game this season.  They are beating these teams by 9.5 PPG.  Take Houston. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Purdue -12 

The Key: The Purdue Boilermakers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They should make easy work of Nebraska, which is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Huskers lost their second-best player in Isaac Copeland Jr. and their best big man to a season-ending knee injury and haven’t recovered.  Take Purdue. 

6* Missouri Valley Game of the Day on Southern Illinois -7.5 

The Key: Evansville is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  All 5 losses have come by 7 points or more as they’ve rarely even been competitive.  And they won’t be competitive against Southern Illinois, which is hungry for a win off a tough loss at Missouri State.  Evansville is 1-10 SU in all road games this season while losing by 10.8 PPG.  Take Southern Illinois. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz -6.5 

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They failed to cover in narrow home wins over Phoenix by 2, Brooklyn by 3 and New Orleans by 5.  And the start of their 8-game rodeo road trip has been a disaster.  They lost by 15 at Sacramento to start the trip, and followed that up with a 39-point loss at Golden State and a 9-point loss at Portland.  I think this is a good price to back the Jazz as only 6.5-point home favorites tonight.  The Jazz will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  The Jazz beat the Spurs by 34 in their lone home meeting this season.  Take Utah. 

7* Heat/Kings NBA *BAILOUT* on Sacramento -3 

The Key: I think we are getting the Kings cheap because they lost by 26 at home to the Rockets the other night, while the Heat upset the Blazers as 7.5-point road underdogs in their last game.  But the Kings found out they traded away Iman Shumpert and Justin Jackson for Harrison Barnes before the game, and they weren’t mentally into that Rockets game.  They’ll be locked back in tonight and get back to playing great at home.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Kings are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Heat, including their 123-113 road win in their first meeting this season.  Sacramento is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against at team with a losing record.  The Kings are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 against Eastern Conference teams.  Take Sacramento. 

6* Pacific/St. Mary’s WCC *CA$H COW* on Pacific +15 

The Key: St. Mary’s has Gonzaga on deck Saturday and will be looking ahead to that huge WCC showdown.  The Gaels won’t be giving Pacific their full attention, which will make it extremely difficult for them to cover this 15-point spread.  Pacific is 9-2 ATS off a conference win over the last 2 seasons.  The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Gaels.  The Tigers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.  Take Pacific. 

7* Spurs/Blazers TNT *BAILOUT* on Portland -6 

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs will be playing for a second consecutive day.  They will also be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 7th game in 12 days overall.  They were worked by 15 at Sacramento and by 39 at Golden State their last two road games, and I expect them to get blown out of the building by the Blazers tonight.  The Blazers come in hungry off a rare upset home loss to Miami.  The Blazers are 22-8 SU & 19-11 ATS at home this season, while the Spurs are 10-17 SU on the road.  The home team has won both meetings this season by 13 points apiece.  Portland is 10-1 ATS revenging a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  The Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.  Take Portland. 

6* Conference USA Game of the Day on Marshall +6 

The Key: The Marshall Thundering Herd have gone 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall and are just 7-16 ATS on the season.  Expectations were high for this team that returned 4 starters, but they have failed to meet them.  That’s why there could be a lot of value with them moving forward since they’ve underachieved, and I think that’s the case tonight.  North Texas hasn’t been much better of late, only covering the spread in 2 of their last 9 games overall.  They’ve only won one game by more than 7 points in their last 9 games.  North Texas is 0-6 ATS in home games off a conference win over the last 2 seasons.  The Mean Green are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.  North Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games against a team with a winning record.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Marshall.