Sports Picks & Predictions

7* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -11

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs are pissed off after blowing a big lead late against St. Mary's on Thursday.  They will respond in a big way Saturday on the road at lowly Pacific, which is just 6-12 on the season.  Gonzaga has owned Pacific, going 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings with all 5 victories coming by 12 points or more.  The Bulldogs have won those 5 meetings by 12, 31, 17, 22 and 18 points.  Take Gonzaga.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New York Knicks +2

The Key: This is a very tough spot for the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers 102-115 on the road last night.  Now they have to travel out for New York.  After facing the top team in the Eastern Conference in the Cavs, the Clippers will have a very hard time getting motivated to face the Knicks.  But these Knicks have been playing about as well as anyone in the Eastern Conference over the last few weeks.  They are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  All three losses came on the road to the Spurs by 1, the Nets by 6 and the Grizzlies by 8.  The Knicks are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  New York is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. a team that wins more than 60% of his games.  Take New York.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando Magic -4

The Key: The Orlando Magic are desperate for a victory tonight after losing 8 of their last 9 games overall to fall below .500 at 20-21 on the season.  It's safe to say that they'll be extremely hungry for a win tonight given the situation.  They should be able to get it against a Charlotte Hornets team that has struggled just as much, going 2-10 in their last 12 games overall.  The Hornets have a plethora of injuries as they are missing three starters in Al Jefferson, Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller, so it's understandable that they are struggling right now.  They may also be without Jeremy Lamb, who is questionable after missing the last five games.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.  Take Orlando.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on South Alabama +16

The Key: The UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7-8) have no business being favored by 16 points over the South Alabama Jaguars (7-10) Thursday.  South Alabama just beat the best team in the Sun Belt in Texas-Arlington 88-85 at home as 12-point underdogs to show what they are capable of.  The Jaguars have only lost two games by more than 15 points this season.  Six of Lafayette's eight losses have come by double-digits.  South Alabama owns Lafayette, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Ragin' Cajuns.  The underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take South Alabama.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have won 3 of their last 4 games coming into this one.  Now that they're healthy, they have been playing better and will be motivated to make a push for that final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  I love getting them as only 2-point home favorites here against the Detroit Pistons.  The Pistons will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a draining 123-114 win at Houston last night.  They won't have much left in the tank here, while the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.  The Pelicans are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Pistons, and 6-0 SU in their last 6 home meetings with Detroit as well.  This has simply been a bad matchup for the Pistons in recent years.  Take New Orleans.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Key: This is an awful spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Denver 110-104 on the road last night.  They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  The Hornets are getting healthier and playing better of late as a result.  They've gone 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall with a 23-point win over Atlanta and a 5-point win over Utah highlighted.  Bets on road underdogs after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent off a win by 6 points or less are 26-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Thunder are 5-15 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season.  Take Charlotte.

7* Warriors/Bulls ESPN *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215

The Key: The oddsmakers have set a very big total for this game between the Warriors and Bulls tonight.  I believe the value to be on the UNDER at 215 points in this one.  For starters, this game will be played on National TV, so the defensive intensity will be higher than normal.  Both teams are coming off high-scoring games that have inflated this total with the Warriors scoring 132 against Cleveland and the Bulls scoring 111 against Detroit.  But the real key here is that the Bulls and Warriors have combined for 214 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 13 straight meetings. That's a 13-0 system backing the UNDER when factoring in this total set of 215.  Take the UNDER.

6* Missouri Valley *CA$H COW* on Northern Iowa +7

The Key: The Northern Iowa Panthers are just the type of team that can upset the Wichita State Shockers.  They play lock-down defense, and their home-court advantage is absolutely enormous.  Remember, this is a Northern Iowa team that upset then-No.1 North Carolina at home.  It also knocked off then-No. 3 Iowa State on a neutral court, so it has proven it can hang with the big boys.  Wichita State is only 5-5 in all road games this season.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, which includes a 70-54 win by the Panthers last season as 2-point home dogs.  Northern Iowa is 17-5 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last 2 seasons.  The Panthers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take Northern Iowa.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks have really picked up their play here of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They have beaten the likes of Dallas, Chicago and Atlanta during this stretch, while also winning on the road in Charlotte by 13 points.  This is a team to be reckoned with going forward.  The Miami Heat are not playing well at all as they've lost 4 of their last 5 games.  Yes, they are coming off a 6-game road trip, so that has a lot to do with it.  But that first home game back from a long road trip is always a difficult spot.  Players are more concerned about family obligations when they get back from the trip rather than playing basketball.  The Heat are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Milwaukee has Miami's number, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Bucks are 17-4 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Kansas/Oklahoma State ESPN2 National TV *Annihilator* on Oklahoma State +9.5

The Key: The Oklahoma State Cowboys aren't as good as they have been in year's past, but they are good enough to stay within single-digits of the Kansas Jayhawks in Stillwater tonight.  After opening with a 69-48 home win over TCU in Big 12 play, the Cowboys have gone 0-4 in their last four conference games, which has them undervalued here.  But three of those were on the road against Baylor, WVU and Texas, while the other was only a 2-point home loss to top-ranked Oklahoma.  So the Cowboys are actually +19 in point differential in their two Big 12 home games.  They have given Kansas fits in Stillwater in recent years, too.  They won 67-62 as 1-point home dogs last season and 72-65 as 1.5-point home favorites two years ago.  Kansas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 10 points in any of the last 7 meetings.  The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Jayhawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Big 12 games.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Oklahoma State.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -1.5

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones rarely lose at home, which is why they are showing good value as only 1.5-point home favorites against the Oklahoma Sooners tonight.  The Cyclones only lost by 4 at Oklahoma in their first meeting this season, and they should have no problem returning the favor at home this time around.  After all, the home team is 8-0 straight up in the last 8 meetings.  The Cyclones are 24-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less in their last 28 tries as well.  Take Iowa State.

7* Warriors/Cavs TNT *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 209

The Key: Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this NBA Finals rematch between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  It's clear that the intensity level will be very high in this game, and that will favor the defenses.  These teams are obviously familiar with one another after playing in the NBA Finals last season and once already this year, so that also favors the defenses.  The first meeting between these teams on Christmas Day was very low-scoring as well.  The Warriors beat the Cavs 89-83 for 172 combined points.  They have combined for 208 or fewer points in all 7 meetings since Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and 195 or fewer points in five of those.  Cleveland is 12-0 UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are absolutely rolling right now and should continue their solid play Sunday with a double-digit victory over the Miami Heat.  They are 5-1 in their last six games overall with three wins by 18, 19 and 20 points.  Those three blowout wins all came at home.  Now they get to face a Heat team that is banged up right now.  The Heat are without starting PG Goran Dragic, and they could be without Dwyane Wade, who is listed as questionable.  The Thunder won their last home meeting with the Heat 93-75 as 4-point favorites.  Miami is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win.  The Heat are 14-38-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NCAAB Saturday Night *BAILOUT* on Boise State -4

The Key: I believe the Boise State Broncos are the best team in the Mountain West.  They are off to a 13-4 start this season, which includes a perfect 9-0 home record.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game at home this year.  The Broncos are 10-0 in their last 10 games overall as well.  San Diego State isn't as good as it has been in year's past, sitting at just 11-6 on the season.  The Broncos won 61-46 and 56-46 in their two meetings with the Aztecs last season, and now they have most of their team back from last year.  The Broncos are 16-3 ATS versus teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  SDSU is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days.  The Broncos are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. Mountain West.  Boise is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games overall.  The Aztecs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.  Take Boise State.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Nets/Hawks UNDER 205.5

The Key: Based on the recent history between the Nets and Hawks, it's clear that oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight.  Both teams are coming off high-scoring games last night, but the Hawks only went over the total against the Bucks due to overtime.  Those two high scoring games have forced oddsmakers to inflate this total as well.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with combined scores of 178, 188 and 198 points.  That's an average of 188.0 combined points per game, which is 17.5 points less than this 205.5-point total.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls could not be in a worse spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They went to overtime against the 76ers last night before pulling out a 115-111 victory.  I don't see them having much left to give tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavs will be the more energized team in this one considering they've had essentially two days' rest in between games.  Rick Carlisle rested his starters against the Thunder on Wednesday, and now those starters should respond by out-hussling the Bulls for four quarters.  The Mavs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after trailing their previous game by 15 points or more at the half.  The Bulls are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following a road win.  Take Dallas.

6* Cavs/Spurs TNT National TV *Annihilator* on San Antonio -5.5

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are the best home team in the NBA.  They are 22-0 SU & 16-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 16.1 points per game.  I look for them to continue to roll tonight as reasonable 5.5-point home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Cleveland will be playing its 5th road games on a 6-game trip, making this a very tough spot.  The Spurs are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing a game as a road favorite.  Cleveland is 4-16 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3 or more boards per game.  The Spurs are 10-1 ATS versus teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts this season.  The Cavs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Spurs are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games overall, including 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Take San Antonio.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State -8.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are going to be hungry for a victory tonight when they host the Washington State Cougars.  They have lost three straight coming into this game to open 0-3 within the conference.  But those three losses came to three of the best teams in the Pac-12 with a home loss to Arizona, and road losses to both USC and UCLA.  They were competitive in all three games as all three losses came by 12 points or less.  Now they get the opportunity to get on track against one of the worst teams in Pac-12 in Washington State.  The Cougars are 1-2 in conference play despite playing three games at home.  They will now be playing just their second true road game of the season.  Their first was ugly as they were upset at Idaho 74-78 despite being 8.5-point favorites.  Arizona State is 12-5 SU & 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Washington State.  The Cougars are 9-21-4 ATS in their last 34 road games.  The home team is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 visits to ASU.  Take Arizona State.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +10.5

The Key: The LSU Tigers have been overvalued ever since beating the Kentucky Wildcats at home a week ago.  They are went on the road and lost at Florida on Saturday, and now they're being asked to lay 10.5 points to a very good Ole Miss team, which is too much.  Ole Miss is 12-3 this season and has won nine of its last 10 games coming in.  That includes home wins over Alabama and Georgia as well as a road win at Memphis.  Ole Miss is 12-4 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  The Rebels are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Ole Miss.

7* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on T'Wolves/Rockets OVER 204.5

The Key: When the Timberwolves and Rockets get together, it usually results in a high-scoring affair.  In fact, the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams with six straight combined scores of 214 or more points.  They have combined for 230, 215, 226, 214, 222 and 235 points in their last 6 meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 223.7 combined points per game, which is 19.2 points more than this posted total of 204.5.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Mavs OVER 198

The Key: With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers are hitting on all cylinders offensively.  They have scored 104, 122, 121, 125 and 95 points in their last 5 games overall.  That 95-point effort was the result of a poor shooting night in which they shot just 38.9% against the 76ers, but that's not likely to happen again.  The Mavs have scored at least 100 points in 6 of their last 10 games coming in.  Recent meetings between these teams indicate that this total has been set too low.  The Mavs and Cavs have combined for at least 199 points in 4 straight meetings.  They are averaging 212.5 combined points/game over their last 4 meetings.  That's 14.5 points more than this 198-point total.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston Celtics -1

The Key: The Boston Celtics have lost 5 of their last 6 games.  They clearly want a win to end this skid, especially after blowing a 20-point lead in a loss at Memphis on Sunday.  They now get to take on a hot Knicks team that has gone 4-1 in its last 5 games, but one that is getting too much respect from the books now.  The Celtics are 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Knicks with an average victory of 11.3 points per game.  Boston is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 road games after two straight games where it allowed at least 100 points.  Take Boston.

6* Big East Game of the Week on DePaul +18.5

The Key: Xavier is finally starting to get the respect it deserves from oddsmakers.  It opened 9-3 ATS in its last 12 lined games and was undervalued.  But now the reverse is true as the Musketeers are overvalued after that start, and it's shown with a 1-2 ATS mark in their last three games.  They lost 64-95 at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs, and only won 74-66 at St. John's as 15-point favorites in their two non-covers.  Now they are being asked to lay 18.5 points to DePaul tonight, which is simply too much.  DePaul has opened 0-4 in Big East play, but its losses have come by 12, 4, 5 and 11 points.  It has been competitive, and it will hang with the Musketeers four 40 minutes tonight to stay within this spread.  The Musketeers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take DePaul.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +8

The Key: One of these teams has struggled of late while the other is rolling.  That has forced the oddsmakers to shade the line toward the team that is rolling, creating some value on the team that is struggling.  The Wizards have lost 5 of their last 7 games, while the Bulls have won 6 of their last 7.  The Bulls may win again tonight, but asking them to do so by 8-plus points is asking too much.  The Wizards have actually played their best basketball on the road this season as they are 8-8 SU & 9-7 ATS.  They just won 105-99 at Orlando, and I like them to stay with the Bulls tonight, possibly pulling off the upset.  After all, the Wizards are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Bulls, so they clearly match up well with them.  The Wizards are 41-23 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Bulls are 3-11 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.  The Wizards are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference teams and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Wizards are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to Chicago.  Take Washington.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Illinois +9

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with Illinois after it was crushed 54-79 at Michigan State last time out.  The betting public is quick to back the Purdue Boilermakers after they throttled Michigan 87-70 at home last time out.  Well, I think it's now time to get the Fighting Illini at a discount as 9-point home dogs to the Boilermakers.  For starters, Kendrick Nunn, who leads the team at 18.5 points per game this season, missed the Michigan State game.  But Nunn is expected to return today and will help the Illini stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.  Five of last six meetings were decided by 9 points or less, and Illinois has not lost to Purdue by more than 8 points in the last six meetings.  Add it all up, and the value is clearly on the Fighting Illini at home Sunday.  Take Illinois.

6* UNC/Syracuse ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +6.5

The Key: Jim Boeheim returns from his nine-game suspension to coach the Syracuse Orange in a critical home games against the North Carolina Tar Heels Saturday.  Before the suspension, the Orange were 6-1 with back-to-back wins over UConn and Texas A&M.  Their only loss came to Wisconsin in overtime.  Over the past nine games, the Orange have lost to Georgetown, St. John's, Pitt, Miami and Clemson.  So they are looking for their first ACC win and will be motivated to get it with Boeheim back, and it's clear that his presence means a lot to this team when you look at the results with and without him thus far.  UNC is 1-9 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Syracuse.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a stretch in which they lost 3 of 4 games, but they rebounded with a 126-98 win at Philadelphia.  This recent stretch has them undervalued right now.  Conversely, the Bulls are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall, which has them overvalued.  I think we are getting the Hawks at a discount tonight as a result.  Chicago is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 Saturday games.   The Bulls are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.  The favorite is 35-16 ATS in the last 51 meetings.  Take Atlanta.

6* Missouri Valley Game of the Week on Southern Illinois +7

The Key: Wichita State is a name that everyone knows due to their Final Four run a few years back.  But the Shockers are not as good this season as they have been the last two years.  They are just 9-5 on the season, but they're still getting treated like they're that Final Four team from oddsmakers.  They are coming off a narrow 67-64 home win at 10-point dogs over Evansville last time out.  This Southern Illinois outfit is no joke as the Salukis are 14-2 on the season.  They are 7-1 at home, which includes an upset win over MVC contender Northern Iowa in their last home game.  The Salukis are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 meetings with Wichita State, including 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home meetings.  Take Southern Illinois.

6* Baylor/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor +7.5

The Key: Baylor is one of the few teams to win at Iowa State in recent seasons.  It won 79-70 in Ames last year as 6.5-point underdogs.  That was part of a 2-0 season sweep by the Bears as they also won 74-73 at home as 2-point favorites.  Their zone defense gives the Cyclones fits and forces them to play more of a half-court game, which isn't their style.  They like to get out and run, but the Bears do a great job of getting back in transition and forcing the Cyclones to work for every point they get.  That will be the case again Saturday as the Bears easily stay within this 7.5-point spread, possibly pulling off the upset.  The Cyclones are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games as their home-court advantage has been overblown here of late.  Take Baylor.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +5

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with the Phoenix Suns right now because they have lost 9 of their last 10 games overall.  The oddsmakers have been forced to tack on a few extra points for the Suns tonight.  Asking the Heat to go on the road and beat the Suns by 6 or more points to cover this spread tonight is asking a little too much.  The Suns will be motivated to end a 10-game losing streak to the Heat, and they'll also be motivated to beat their former teammate, Goran Dragic.  The Heat are just 6-6 on the road this season, where they're scoring only 93.0 points per game.  Miami is 1-14 ATS after covering 3 of its last 4 games against the spread over the last two seasons.  Take Phoenix.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Grizzlies UNDER 192.5

The Key: The Grizzlies have been playing in some very low-scoring games over the past month-plus.  They have scored fewer than 100 points in 15 of their last 18, and they've allowed 100 or fewer in 12 of their last 13.  The Grizzlies are still a great defensive team, but they are now offensively-challenged because both PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee are nursing injuries that will likely keep them out tonight.  The Nuggets and Grizzlies have played in very low scoring affairs in their last two meetings with combined scores of 173 and 168 points.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.  The Nuggets are 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

7* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas State -1

The Key: Arkansas State comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last 3 games overall with a 10-point home win over Central Arkansas, a 3-point road win at Troy, and a 22-point road win at South Alabama.  The home/away discrepancy between LA-Monroe and Arkansas State is a huge factor here.  Arkansas State is 4-1 at home this season, while LA-Monroe is 1-7 on the road with its only win coming against Northwestern State.  The Red Wolves are a perfect 9-0 SU in their last 9 home meetings with LA-Monroe since 1997.  That record, more than anything, is the reason for this play.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Celtics/Bulls NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Boston +6

The Key: The Boston Celtics have clearly been road warriors this season.  They have gone 10-6 on the road this season, which includes an 11-5 ATS mark.  They have been even better on the road here of late, going 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with two 3-point losses to San Antonio and Detroit.  I look for them to stay within 6 points of the Bulls on the road tonight, possibly pulling off the upset.  The Bulls are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 5-game winning streak coming in.  It's time to fade them as a result.  Boston has gone 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Celtics are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 road games overall.  Take Boston.

6* Cincinnati/SMU ESPN National TV *Annihilator* on Cincinnati +6.5

The Key: I expect Mick Cronin's Cincinnati Bearcats to hand the SMU Mustangs their first loss of the season tonight.  Getting the 6.5 points is just an added bonus.  The Bearcats returned all 5 starters this season from a team that owned SMU last year.  Cincinnati beat SMU 56-50 at home and 62-54 on the road as identical 6.5-point underdogs.  The Mustangs just don't handle the Bearcats' big men inside well at all.  Cincinnati outrebounded SMU 62-50 in the two meetings combined last year.  The Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Take Cincinnati.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are in an awful spot tonight.  They are coming off a double-overtime game against Sacramento last night in which they won on a buzzer-beater by Deron Williams, 117-116.  Now they are in a huge letdown spot here, and they are also fatigued as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  New Orleans has had 3 days off in between games since a 105-98 road win over these same Mavericks on Saturday. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  New Orleans is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games coming in.  Take New Orleans.

6* MAC Game of the Week on Northern Illinois +2

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Mark Montgomery has this team sitting at 11-2 entering MAC play Wednesday with a home meeting against the Ohio Bobcats.  NIU's only two losses this season both came on the road to Missouri (71-78) and Ohio State (54-67).  That game against the Buckeyes was close the entire way until the final few minutes.  But the Huskies are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 22.9 points per game.  Ohio is just 2-3 in road games this year, neutral or true.  This is a team that has recent lackluster home wins over Jackson State (72-67) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (65-58) in two of its last three games.  The Bobcats are 2-10 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last 2 seasons.  The Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Huskies are 21-7-4 ATS in their last 32 MAC games.  Take Northern Illinois.

7* Florida/Tennessee ESPN2 National TV *Annihilator* on Tennessee +4.5

The Key: Rick Barnes stepped into a good situation at Tennessee with 4 starters back from last year, and a solid recruiting class.  The Vols have been ultra-competitive this season even though they are just 7-6 on the year.  Their six losses have come to Georgia Tech, George Washington, Nebraska, Butler, Gonzaga and Auburn.  All six of those losses came on the road, and all six came by 11 points or less, including five by 8 points or fewer.  That's pretty impressive to play all six of those teams down to the wire.  Florida has only played three true road games this season, losing two with its only win at Navy in the season opener.  The Vols are 7-0 at home this season.  The Vols are 31-9 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog.  Florida is 4-14 ATS following a win over the last two seasons.  The Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 trips to Tennessee.  Take Tennessee.

7* Warriors/Lakers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +13

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are clearly overvalued right now due to their 32-2 start to the season.  They have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games with a 3-point home win over the Nuggets and a 10-point home win over the Hornets.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating Charlotte at home last night.  The Lakers are undervalued due to their 8-27 start, but they have been playing much better of late.  They have won three straight with an 8-point win at Boston, a 9-point home win over Philadelphia, and a 20-point home win over Phoenix.  They have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Los Angeles.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores are hungry for a win tonight after losing 4 of thier last 6 games overall.  Those four losses came to Baylor, Dayton, Purdue and LSU, so they have played a brutal schedule.  Now it lightens up a bit against an Arkansas team that is clearly down this season.  The Razorbacks are just 6-7 on the season due to the fact that they had to break in five new starters this year.  They have lost to the likes of Mercer and Akron this season among their 7 losses.  The Commodores are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.  Vanderbilt is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Razorbacks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech +13

The Key: Last year, a bad Virginia Tech team played a very good Virginia team tough in both meetings.  VA Tech only lost 47-50 at home as 16.5-point underdogs, and they also covered as 19.5-point road dogs in a 57-69 loss.  Plus, they only lost 53-57 as 11-point home dogs to the Cavaliers in 2014.  It's clear that this team can play with Virginia, and I look for the Hokies to easily stay within this 13-point spread at home tonight.  They just upset NC State 73-68 as 2-point home dogs on Saturday.  The Hokies are 44-27 ATS in their last 71 games off a home win against a conference opponent.  The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Virginia Tech.

7* Monday Night NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Celtics -7.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics want revenge from two straight losses to the Nets this season, including a 3-point loss on Saturday night.  Brooklyn PG Jarrett Jack suffered a torn ACL in that game and will miss the rest of the season, which is a big blow to this team.  Boston is 16-4 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 41-15 ATS in road games revenging a loss with Brad Stevens as their head coach.  Boston is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games after giving up 100-plus points in two straight games.  Take Boston.

6* Rockets/Spurs Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Houston +12

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are clearly overvalued right now.  The betting public is all over this team because they have gone 28-6 SU & 23-11 ATS on the season.  The Houston Rockets are 16-18 SU & 13-21 ATS, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But the Rockets match up well with the Spurs as they've had the upper-hand in this series of late.  They have gone 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings with their three losses coming by 1, 12 and 4 points.  The Rockets haven't lost by more than 12 to the Spurs in any of the last 12 meetings.  Take Houston.

6* Notre Dame/Virginia ACC *CA$H COW* on Notre Dame +9.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish get the nod here as 9.5-point underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers.  They should have no problem staying within double-digits here.  The Fighting Irish are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. teams who make 45% or more of their shots and give up 42% or less to opponents.  Take Notre Dame.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The Key: This is strictly a fade of the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are worn down as this will be their 5th game in 7 days, all of which have come on the road.  They played a high-scoring affair in a 122-117 win at Charlotte last night, so they will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The Pelicans have played better of late with 3 wins in their last 5 games and one of their losses coming in overtime on the road to the Miami Heat.  The home team has gone 6-0 straight up in the last 6 meetings between these teams.  Take New Orleans.

6* CAA Game of the Week on Drexel +11.5

The Key: UNC-Wilmington is overvalued right now due to its 8-3 start against a soft schedule.  Drexel is undervalued due to its 2-9 start against a much tougher slate.  Wilmington's 8 wins have come against Milligan, Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, E Tennessee State, Coker, Utah Valley State, Campbell and Missouri KC.  7 of Drexel's 9 losses this season have come by 9 points or less, including a 1-point loss at St. Joe's and a 6-point loss to Penn State.  Bets against home teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game against teams who get outscored by 3.5 to 8 points per game, after scoring 95 points or more in their previous game are 66-29 ATS since 1997.  Take Drexel.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks +4

The Key: This is a great spot to fade the Golden State Warriors considering how banged up their are right now.  They are likely to be without MVP Steph Curry, who had an MRI today on his leg and should be given the night off.  Harrison Barnes and Leandro Barbose remain out, Festus Ezeli is questionable, and Draymond Green is expected to play through an ankle injury.  The Warriors are ripe for the picking tonight, and I look for the Mavericks to knock them off.  The Mavs are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points at Toronto.  The Mavs are 4-0 in their last four home games, and they haven't lost any of their last 12 home games by more than 4 points, making for a perfect 12-0 angle backing them tonight.  Take Dallas.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on Texas-Arlington -4.5

The Key: This Texas-Arlington team might be the best-kept secret in all of college basketball.  They have gotten off to a 9-2 start this season with some very impressive wins already.  They beat Ohio State 73-68 as 18.5-point road dogs, Memphis 68-64 as 12-point road dogs, and UTEP 76-62 as 1-point road dogs.  They also took Texas to overtime on the road with their only other loss coming at LA Tech.  Georgia State doesn't really have an impressive win yet.  It lost its two toughest games on the road to Ole Miss by 9 and UAB by 7.  I believe UT-Arlington wants to make a statement and let Georgia State know that the Sun Belt belongs to them this season.  Arlington is 5-0 at home this season, winning by 31.0 points per game to boot.  Georgia State is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.  Arlington is 8-1 ATS in all games this season.  Take UT-Arlington.

6* Michigan State/Iowa NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Iowa -2.5

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans are the #1 team in the country, yet they are underdogs tonight to the Iowa Hawkeyes.  I think the Hawks are favored for good reason here.  All three of their losses this season have come by 6 points or less, and they should have beaten Iowa State in a 1-point road loss as they held a 20-point lead in that game.  They have blown out both Marquette and Wichita State by 20-plus points this season away from home.  Iowa is 6-0 at home this season, winning by 21.8 PPG.  Michigan State is without its top player in Denzel Valentine.  In its last game without him, it needed overtime to beat Oakland.  I don't expect the Spartans to be so fortunate now on the road against a quality opponent in the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Key: I'll gladly fade the Miami Heat tonight given this awful spot for them.  The Heat will be playing their 4th game in 5 days off their 105-111 loss to the Brooklyn Nets last night.  They'll have nothing left to give against Memphis, which will be playing just its 3rd game in 7 days.  The Grizzlies want revenge from a 97-100 loss at Miami on December 13 in which they blew a 16-point 3rd quarter lead and watched the Heat score the final 11 points of the game.  They have won four straight home meetings with the Heat.  Miami is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this season.  Memphis is 19-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  Take Memphis.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Key: The Nets have lost 7 of their last 8 games and are catching too many points tonight as a result.  The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last 2 games and are laying too many points now.  I like the Nets here as 8.5-point dogs.  This team has been getting too many points on the road all season, as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The last 4 meetings between the Nets and Heat have all been decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one will be as well.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic -4

The Key:  The Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing overtime to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Christmas Day.  They won't have a lot left in the tank for the Orlando Magic, who come in playing as well as anyone in the Eastern Conference.  The Magic have won five of their last six games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points to Atlanta.  Four of their five wins came by 8 points or more.  They have had two days off as they last played on Wednesday, so they will be the fresher team.  The Magic are 20-8 ATS in all games this season as they've been undervalued all year.  They're 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS in all home games.  The Heat are just 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS on the road.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.  Take Orlando.

7* Cavs/Warriors XMas Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +7

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are fully healthy for the first time this season.  That's a far cry from what they were when they lost to the Warriors 4-2 in the NBA Finals.  They somehow managed to make a series out of it despite playing without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving.  But both players are healthy coming into this rematch, and the Cavs are simply going to want this one more than the Warriors.  The Cavs are also playing well coming in, winning 6 straight with a pair of double-digit road wins over the Magic and Celtics in their two road games during this stretch.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take Cleveland.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Baylor -12

The Key: I believe this is a great time to back the Baylor Bears.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season as they shot just 35.6% in a 61-80 road loss to the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday.  Expect them to be highly motivated off that loss.  Now they return home where they are 7-0 and outscoring teams by 24.9 points per game this season.  New Mexico State is just 1-3 on the road this year.  It has been blown out at Long Beach State by 14 and at New Mexico by 18.  Baylor will be the best team that NMSU has played this year.  The Aggies only shoot 32.6% from 3-point range, which is a problem considering Baylor's zone D forces opponents to make outside shots.  The Aggies aren't capable of doing it consistently.  The Bears are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.  Take Baylor.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Orlando Magic +1

The Key: The Orlando Magic are playing their best basketball of the season entering this home game against the Houston Rockets.  They have won 10 of their last 14 games overall with three of their four losses coming by 3 points or less.  They have also gone a sensational 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 contests.  With how well they are playing right now, they should not be home underdogs to the Houston Rockets, who clearly have something wrong as they are just 15-14 and fired their head coach early on.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Rockets.  That includes a 5-1 ATS record in their last six home meetings.  Take Orlando.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks +4

The Key: I really like backing the Dallas Mavericks as road underdogs.  Year after year, they always seem to play their best basketball on the road, while consistently being overvalued as home favorites.  That has been the case again this season as they are 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS on the road.  The Mavs have had three days of rest to get ready for the Raptors, and they certainly want to avenge a 91-102 home loss to them in their first meeting this season.  Bets on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Mavericks, revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, playing with 3 or more days rest are 49-23 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Raptors are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Dallas.

6* VA Tech/St. Joe's NCAAB Early Riser on St. Joe's -2.5

The Key: The St. Joe's Hawks are a very good, experienced team this season that returned four starters from last year.  They are off to an 8-2 start with their only losses coming against Villanova and Florida.  They hung tough with both of those teams, and they have beaten quality teams like Old Dominion and Temple on the road this season.  VA Tech hasn't beaten anyone as its eight wins have come against Jacksonville State, VMI, NC A&T, UAB, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Radford, Lamar and Grambling.  The Hokies lost to the two best teams they played in Iowa State (77-99) on a neutral court and Northwestern (79-81) at home.  They also lost to Alabama State (82-85) at home.  I just don't give them much of a chance here as this is a team that is still rebuilding in Year 2 under Buzz Williams.  The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Hawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take St. Joe's.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Magic/Knicks UNDER 196.5

The Key: When you look at recent meetings between the Knicks and Magic, it's easy to see why I like the UNDER here.  They have combined for 191, 159 and 172 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 174.0 points per game and 22.5 points less than this 196.5-point total.  Both teams prefer to slow down the tempo as the Magic rank 19th in pace while the Knicks are 23rd.  Both teams struggle offensively as the Magic are 19th in offensive efficiency while the Knicks are 21st.  Both teams are improved defensively this season as the Magic rank 8th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks rank 16th.  Orlando is 8-0 UNDER in road games off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  The Magic are 8-0 UNDER in road games off a home loss to a division opponent over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on UMass +3.5

The Key: Providence is overvalued due to its 11-1 start this season.  The Friars have failed to cover the spread in their last two games.  They only won by 7 at home against Bryant as 18.5-point favorites and by 8 at home against Rider as 12.5-point favorites.  They were playing without their best player in Kris Dunn for both of those games, and Dunn is questionable to return tonight.  The Friars have only had one day in between games as they played Rider on Saturday.  The UMass Minutemen come in fresh as they have had 4 days off in between games since their win over New Orleans on December 16.  The home team is 3-0 SU in the last three meetings between these teams over the last three seasons.  The Minutemen are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take UMass.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Fresno State -2

The Key: This is a very generous price to get Fresno State as only 2-point home favorites over Evansville today.  The Bulldogs are 8-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road to Oregon, Arizona and Cal Poly.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 at home this season, beating teams by 11.2 points per game.  Evansville is 9-2 overall but just 3-2 on the road this year.  It lost to Providence by 10 on a neutral court and Arkansas by 13 on the road.  The Purple Aces have played an easier schedule than the Bulldogs this year.  Fresno State is 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 years.  Take Fresno State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5

The Key: The Timberwolves had lost eight of nine games before finally snapping out of it with a 99-95 home win over the Kings on Friday.  This stretch has them undervalued right now as they should not be underdogs to the Brooklyn Nets.  But all 8 of those losses came by 12 points or less, including 7 by 8 points or fewer.  They were competitive in every game, but just had some bad fortune in close games.  The Nets are 7-19 on the season and have lost four straight coming in.  They have all kinds of injury issues right now as Shane Larkin, Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Sergey Karasev are all out.  The Timberwolves have played their best ball on the road this season as they are 6-6 SU & 9-3 ATS in road games.  They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall.  The Timberwolves are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Nets.  Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -1

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a draining 8-point loss at San Antonio last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  The Houston Rockets had yesterday off following a 107-87 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers Thursday.  The Rockets are playing much better now as they've won 8 of their last 12 games overall and were competitive in all four of their losses.  The Rockets have won four straight meetings with the Clippers heading in, including home wins by 13 and 21 points.  The Rockets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games off a road win.  Take Houston.

6* NCAAB In-State Rivalry Game of the Week on Georgia +2

The Key: The Georgia Bulldogs have won 7 of their last 9 home meetings with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in this rivalry, where home-court advantage has clearly been huge for both teams.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Georgia is just 4-3 this year, but its three losses have come by 2, 2 and 7 points.  The Bulldogs are expected to get their best player back today in Kenny Gaines, who missed last game with a knee injury.  Getting ample time off has helped him recover as the Bulldogs last played on December 8th.  Georgia Tech hasn't had nearly as much time to prepare as it last played on December 15th in a home win over VCU.  That was the one quality win that the Yellow Jackets have this season as they've played an easy schedule and have been favored in 8 of their 9 games.  In their only game as a dog, they lost by 17 to Villanova.  Georgia Tech is 13-30 ATS in its last 43 road games after having won 4 of its last 5 games.  The Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Georgia.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have lost four straight coming in and desperately need a win.  But two of those losses came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they get to a cupcake in Denver.  The Nuggets have played better of late, winning five of their last six, but four of those wins have come against Minnesota (twice), Philadelphia and Houston.  Four of them have also come by 6 points or less, so they've been fortunate in close games.  The Jazz have won each of their last two meetings with the Nuggets in blowout fashion with a 12-point road win this season and a 14-point home win in their final meeting last year.  Utah is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Nuggets are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest.  The Jazz are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Utah.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington State -10

The Key: Washington State should be a heavier home favorite tonight against Texas State.  The Cougars are 6-2 this season with a 9-point loss to Gonzaga and a 4-point road loss to Idaho.  All six of Washington State's wins have come by 12 points or more, and I believe we'll be able to add a 7th to that category tonight.  Texas State is 5-2 with its two losses coming to Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 8 and UTEP by 15.  Its five wins have come against Texas-Tyler, McNeese State, UTSA, UTRGV and Prairie View A&M.  If that's not a laughable schedule than I don't know what is.  UTEP is a common opponent of these teams.  Texas State lost 62-77 at UTEP and shot 35.8% while allowing 54.2% shooting.  Well, Washington State beat UTEP 84-68 at home and shot 55.3% while allowing only 36.5% shooting.  The Cougars are 6-1 at home this year, winning by 12.9 points per game.  The Cougars are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  Texas State is 1-12 ATS versus teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Washington State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost 8 of their last 9 games coming in an are in desperate need of a victory.  But it's not like they haven't been competitive as they could have won all nine of those games.  The eight losses have come by 8, 3, 6, 4, 3, 7, 12 and 5 points, so they have been in every game, but they just haven't been able to finish the deal.  The Kings are road favorites here because they come in having won 3 straight.  HOwever, all three wins came at home over Utah, New York and Houston.  The Kings are a great home team, but they are a terrible road game.  The Kings are just 2-8 on the road this season, giving up 112.5 points per game away from home.  The Kings are 21-47-2 ATS in their last 70 games playing on 2 days rest.  Sacramento is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS win.  Take Minnesota.

6* Rockets/Lakers TNT *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +6

The Key: After a brutal 8-game road trip in which the Lakers played 8 games in 12 days, they finally had some rest before returning home to face the Bucks two nights ago.  They had two days off prior to that game, and then promptly put together their best performance of the season in a 113-95 home win as 3.5-point underdogs.  They had seven different players score in double-digits and had 26 assists on their 41 made field goals.  Look for them to build off of that win and play well tonight as 6-point home dogs against the Rockets.  The Lakers want revenge from an ugly loss at Houston on December 12 less than a week ago.  That was the 8th game on that 8-game road trip, and they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in San Antonio the previous night.  They had nothing left in the tank, but now they are rejuvenated and will put forth a much better effort tonight.  The Lakers are only getting outscored by 2.7 points per game at home this year, while the Rockets are getting outscored by 4.0 points per game on the road.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bucks/Clippers Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Milwaukee +11

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back tonight.  However, they won't have to travel at all as they will be playing inside the Staples Center again.  After being 4-point favorites over the Lakers yesterday, now they're 11-point underdogs to the Clippers tonight, which is a massive 15-point adjustment.  As a result, I believe there is some nice value here with the Bucks catching double-digits.  I also like the fact that the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 0 days rest.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +13

The Key: Mississippi State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  I fully expect this team to make some noise in the SEC this season behind first-year head coach Ben Howland and his four returning starters.  This is a talented group that just needed some leadership, and Howland provides that since he took UCLA to three straight Final Fours.  The Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they are 5-1 ATS in their six lines games this year.  They are especially undervalued here because they are coming off an upset loss to Missouri-KC, which will have them re-focused and grounded as they take on this solid Florida State squad.  The Seminoles are 26-59 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Take Mississippi State.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Key: The Houston Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after their draining 108-114 road loss to the Denver Nuggets last night.  This is a good spot to fade them and back the Sacramento Kings, who have had four days off in between games having last played on December 10th.  The Kings are a respectable 7-7 at home this season as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  The Rockets are giving up 107.0 points per game on 48.4% shooting en route to a 5-6 road record this year.  The Kings have already lost to the Rockets twice this year, and they've lost each of their last four meetings with the Rockets all by 7 points or less, so they will be wanting some revenge here.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.  Take Sacramento.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tennessee Tech +12.5

The Key: This is too many points for UT-Chattanooga to be playing to a quality in-state opponent in Tennessee Tech tonight.  Tech has gone 7-3 this season with its only losses all coming on the road to Air Force, New Mexico State and Arkansas.  Tech has only one loss by more than 13 points this season, so it has been competitive in basically every game but one.  Chattanooga is in a big letdown spot here after winning at Dayton three days ago.  It's also hard to trust Chattanooga to win by 12-plus points tonight considering they are without their best player.  Casey Jones is out with an ankle injury.  He led the team in scoring (14.2) and rebounding (7.0) last season, and he is leading them in both categories (12.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg) once again this season.  He played in their first eight games but had to sit out the win over Dayton.  Teams can play well without their star player for one game, but not over time.  Tech beat Chattanooga 69-67 at home last year.  Chattanooga is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. Ohio Valley foes.  Chattanooga is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win.  Take Tennessee Tech.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Magic/Nets UNDER 199

The Key: Two poor offensive teams square off tonight when the Magic meet the Nets in an Eastern Conference showdown.  The Magic rank 23rd in offensive efficiency while the Nets rank 27th.  These are two teams who also play at below-average league paces as the Nets are 16th in pace while the Magic are tied for 17th.  Each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  Orlando is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Magic are 34-13 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last 3 years.  The Nets are 14-3 UNDER off a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 years.  The UNDER is 12-1 in Magic last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *Total* Annihilator on Grizzlies/Heat UNDER 189.5

The Key: The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA.  They are 17-4 to the UNDER this season and oddsmakers just can't set their totals low enough.  They certainly haven't set this one low enough as this is a battle between two defense-first teams who play at slow paces.  Miami ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 96.4 points per 100 possessions.  While the Grizzlies have slipped defensively this year, this is still a good defensive team.  Miami ranks 25th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Memphis ranks 24th in pace at 96.9 possessions per game.  Miami is 20th in offensive efficiency while Memphis is 25th in offensive efficiency.  The Heat are 9-1 UNDER vs. teams with winning records this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8.5

The Key: Both of these teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's a much worse spot for the Warriors.  They will be playing their 7th straight road game.  No team in NBA history has ever swept a 7-game road trip.  Plus, the Warriors went to double-overtime last night against the Celtics.  They won't have anything left in the tank.  The Bucks will be energized to try and end this unbeaten streak by the Warriors.  The Bucks have held their own at home this year, posting a 7-5 record there compared to a 2-10 mark on the road.  Milwaukee is 20-8 ATS following 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.  The Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Bucks are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  The Warriors are already without Harrison Barnes and could be without Klay Thompson again tonight.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Cincinnati/Xavier Top 25 *CA$H COW* on Xavier -4

The Key: Xavier is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Sure, the Musketeers are ranked #12 in the land, but they don't get the credit that a lot of other top programs do.  They just keep going about their business, destroying the competition en route to a 9-0 start.  They are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game this year.  They have impressive road wins over Michigan (86-70), Alabama (64-45), USC (87-77) and Dayton (90-61), so they have played a tough schedule, too.  Cincinnati is 8-1 but lost to Butler at home and only beat Nebraska and Georgia Washington by a combined 9 points.  Xavier has won each of its last two meetings with Cincinnati while shooting 56.4% and 52.6% from the floor.  The domination in this series for the Musketeers continues tonight.  Xavier 7-0 ATS is as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons.  Xavier is 7-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Xavier.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are coming off a huge 97-94 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.  That win sets them up for a massive letdown spot here as they host the Milwaukee Bucks two nights later.  The Raptors shouldn't be 8-point favorites considering they are missing two starters right now in Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.  Betting against home teams off an upset win as a home underdog against an opponent off a home loss has produced a 37-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons.  Toronto is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Heat/Pacers ESPN National TV Annihilator on Indiana -4.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers will be motivated to put to end a 3-game losing streak.  They lost road games against the Blazers and Jazz before coming home to lose to the unbeaten Warriors.  But the Pacers should have no problem getting back on track against a team they've owned at home.  They haven't lost at home in the regular season to the Heat since February of 2012.  The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.  Indiana is 35-13 in its last 48 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.  Indiana is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  Take Indiana.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons/76ers UNDER 192.5

The Key: The 76ers and Pistons played in some ugly defensive battles in their final two meetings last year.  THey combined for 158 and 177 points, both of which came in Philadelphia.  The 76ers are awful offensively once again this season as they are 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Pistons have also struggled on that end as they're 24th in offensive efficiency.  But the Pistons do lock it down defensively, ranking 8th in the NBA in efficiency on that end.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Pistons last 6 games, while the UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games as well.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off an embarrassing 51-point loss to the Spurs last time out.  They have had two days in between games since that ugly loss.  Look for them to come back re-energized and to show a lot of fight tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.  This will be just the 2nd time all season that the Nets have actually been favored.  They lost at home to the Lakers 98-104 as 3-point favorites in the first instance.  The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams, and four of the last five meetings overall.  The 76ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Vanderbilt -8.5

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the best teams in the country.  They have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in lined games.  Their only two losses this season came on the road to Kansas (63-70) and Baylor (67-69) by a combined 9 points.  Those are also two of the best teams in the land.  Vanderbilt's numbers are out of this world.  It is scoring 83.4 points against teams that allow 73.5 points, and allowing 60.6 points against teams that average 79.3 points.  After the loss to Kansas, Vanderbilt bounced back with a 102-52 home win over Detroit.  I look for the Commodores to bounce back from their loss to Baylor in a big way at home tonight.  Dayton is 6-1 this season, but I can't take the Flyers seriously when they lost to Xavier 61-90 two games back.  Plus, this will be their first true road game of the season in a hostile atmosphere.  The Commodores are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 33.0 points per game.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  Take this combined 19-1 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Bulls/Celtics ESPN National TV Annihilator on Boston -2.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They get after it defensively, ranking 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They are outscoring the opposition by 5.3 points per game overall and 7.9 points per game at home.  Their last four games have been mighty impressive as they've gone 4-0 ATS.  They have posted double-digit road wins over Miami (by 10), Sacramento (by 17) and New Orleans (by 18) with their only loss coming at San Antonio (by 3) as 8.5-point underdogs.  The Bulls are 6-12 ATS this season and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with winning records.  The Celtics have gone 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games following a win.  Take Boston.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Indiana Pacers +6

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are ripe for the upset tonight.  They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They nearly lost to Utah in a 3-point win and Toronto in a 3-point win.  I believe Indiana is better than both of those teams and is good enough to hand the Warriors their first defeat of the season tonight.  Indiana has won six straight home games by nearly 12 points per game on average.  The Pacers are coming in on 2 days' rest, which is important considering their are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 2 days of rest.  Take Indiana.

6* WVU/Virginia ESPN National TV Annihilator on West Virginia +5

The Key: While Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State are getting all of the national attention in the Big 12, everyone is sleeping on West Virginia.  The Mountaineers have opened 7-0 this season, and the numbers they are putting up are out of this world.  They are averaging 88.4 points against teams that allow 74.9 points, and they are allowing 57.6 points against teams that average 72.6.  So they are scoring nearly 14 points more per game than their opponents allow, and they are allowing 15 points per game less than their opponents average.  Virginia is a great team, but I think the wrong team is favored here.  The Cavaliers have been vulnerable as they lost to George Washington earlier this season, and the rest of their schedule has been pretty easy, with the exception of a 6-point win over Ohio State.  But the Buckeyes are down this season.  WVU is 6-0 ATS in road games off 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  Virginia is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams that outscore foes by 12-plus points  per game.  Take West Virginia.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are in an awful situation tonight.  This is the finale of a 6-game road trip for them.  They have lost four straight on this road trip, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  The Suns are simply running on fumes right now.  The Bulls will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, so look for them to win all of the hustle plays tonight.  The Bulls have won 11 of their last 14 meetings with the Suns.  The Suns are 3-8 on the road, while the Bulls are 7-2 at home.  Chicago is coming off a loss to Charlotte, and it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a defeat.  In fact, the Bulls haven't lost two straight games all season.  Take Chicago.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on IUPUI +21

The Key: The Purdue Boilermakers are getting a lot of love right now from the betting public due to their 8-0 start this  season.  But after back-to-back huge wins over Pitt and New Mexico, this is the definition of a letdown spot for the Boilermakers.  I don't believe they'll be able to cover this massive 21-point spread against crosstown opponent IUPUI. This is an IUPUI team that returned 4 starters from last year.  Yes, it is just 3-6 this season, but it has played a brutal schedule with seven road games against two home games.  All six of its losses have come on the road, but five of those losses came by 10 points or less.  It also beat Indiana State 72-70 as 8-point road dogs, and only lost to Marquette 71-75 as 13.5-point road dogs.  I've seen enough from this team to know that it can stay within 21 points of Purdue tonight.  It also helps that 2015 Big Ten Player of the Year Raphael Davis will likely miss his 4th straight game for the Boilermakers tonight.  IUPUI is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 years.  IUPUI is 10-1 ATS in road games off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past 2 seasons.  Take IUPUI.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are coming off a hard-fought 112-109 win at Toronto last night.  Now they have to come back a day later and are being asked to lay double-digit points to the Brooklyn Nets, who had yesterday off.  I see no way the Warriors find a way to win by double-digits today.  The Nets are 4-0 in their last four home games overall.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, and the Nets took the Warriors to overtime on the road in their first meeting this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of the last 11 meetings in this series.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks +2

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks both played last night.  The Knicks won their second straight game 108-91 over the Nets, while the Bucks lost on the road 95-102 to the Pistons.  The Bucks have a shorter flight back to Milwaukee and will be the more motivated team heading into this game considering they are coming off consecutive losses.  They really need a win to turn their season around, and I look for them to get it here.  Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS following two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss to an opponent against an opponent off a road loss to a division foe are 27-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Ohio State -15

The Key: The Ohio State Buckeyes are shockingly off to just a 2-4 start this season.  After opening with 22-point and 27-points wins over Mount St. Mary's and Grambling, they have lost four in a row coming in.  But all four losses came to quality teams in UT Arlington, LA Tech, Memphis and Virginia.  All four losses also came by 8 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Memphis and a 6-point loss to Virginia, so they are not broken.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated to get back in the win column today.  Now they get to face an awful team in Virginia Military.  VMI is 0-3 on the road this season, losing to Penn State by 12, VA Tech by 24 and Campbell by 1.  Those losses to Penn State and VA Tech make me think that Ohio State won't have a problem covering this 15-point spread because it is the best team that VMI will have faced this season.  The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Ohio State.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Missouri -3.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is getting way too much respect from the books tonight due to its 7-0 start.  It couldn't have played an easier schedule as it has played six games at home against CS-Northridge, South Dakota, Wright State, Eureka, Indiana-Northwest and Chicago State.  It has only played one road game, which came at Idaho in a 7-point win.  Now the Huskies will face their toughest test of the season on the road against a team from the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.  Missouri is 3-3, but its three losses have come to Xavier, Kansas State and Northwestern all on the road.  The Tigers hung with both Xavier and Northwestern, which are two very good teams this year.  Missouri is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game.  It is shooting 49.4% at home and allowing just 38.3% at home.  The Tigers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  Take Missouri.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -2.5

The Key: The New York Knicks are 9-10 this season and things are looking up in the Big Apple for the first time in a long time.  Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets are 5-13 this season and clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA.  Last year, the Nets beat the Knicks 4-0 in the season series, but that was an awful Knicks team.  Plus, the last three games were all decided by 5 points or less.  The Knicks will want revenge from that season sweep.  The Nets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point dogs.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, but most of those came as big underdogs.  This line has now been over-adjusted because the Nets have actually won two straight games for the first time this season coming in.  But that works against them considering the Nets are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games following 2 or more consecutive wins.  Take New York.

6* Spurs/Grizzlies TNT National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3.5

The Key: This is an awful spot for the aging San Antonio Spurs.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich rests some of his aging players in this one.  Either way, I like this spot for the Grizzlies, who had Wednesday off and will be the fresher team.  I also like the way the Grizzlies are playing right now.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall.  One of the two losses came 82-92 at San Antonio on November 21, so they'll also be out for revenge from that loss two weeks later.  Memphis is 70-42 ATS in its last 112 vs. good defensive teams that allow 91 or fewer points per game.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents.  San Antonio is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 Thursday games.  Take Memphis.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on North Texas +16.5

The Key: Texas-Arlington could not be more overvalued than it is right now.  The betting public has seen it beat teams like Ohio State and Memphis, while also challenging Louisiana Tech and Texas.  Arlington is coming off a 73-80 (OT) loss to Texas on Tuesday, and now I expect it to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  That also makes this a quick turnaround for Arlington, which only has one day in between games to get ready for North Texas.  I had North Texas as 20-point dogs against Northern Iowa last time out.  That was an unfortunate loss as the Mean Green actually held a 2-point halftime lead over the Panthers before getting outscored by 25 points after intermission.  Look for them to stay within 16 points of this Arlington squad, which isn't as good at Northern Iowa.  Arlington is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games after winning 3 of its last 4.  Arlington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after an ATS win.  Take North Texas.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit +21.5

The Key: The betting public has been quick to back the Vanderbilt Commodores after their 5-1 start this season.  But their first five games couldn't have been any easier as they played Austin Peay, Gardner Webb, Stony Brook, St. John's and Wake Forest.  Keep in mind they only beat Stony Brook by 7 at home.  They are coming off their first loss of the season to No. 4 ranked Kansas 63-70.  I expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  I also expect them to be looking ahead to another huge showdown at Baylor in their next game on December 6th.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Commodores.  Detroit is not a bad team as its two losses have come on the road to Pitt by 16 as 17.5-point dogs and Oral Roberts by 5 as 7-point dogs.  The Titans are an elite offensive team that is putting up 96.0 points per game on 49.5% shooting.  They have a whopping six players averaging 10 points or more, so they share the ball well and get everyone involved.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Detroit.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 192.5

The Key: These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  The 76ers rank last in offensive efficiency at 91.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks are 23rd at 99.6 points per 100 possessions.  These teams are used to playing in ugly, low-scoring games when they meet.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with all five games seeing 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined to average 183.6 points in those 5 meetings.  The UNDER is 25-12 in 76ers last 37 games on 0 days of rest.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 home games.  The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Knicks last 15 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Charlotte Hornets +9.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are 19-0 this season.  The betting public has been backing them in stride too, and they've been rewarded with a 13-6 ATS record.  But the Warriors have now set some expectations for the betting public that they cannot live up to.  They are 9.5-point road favorites over the Hornets here when they shouldn't be.  After all, Charlotte is better than it gets credit for.  It is 10-7 on the season with five of its seven losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  The Hornets rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency.  The Hornets also check in on two days of rest, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in this situation.  They'll give the Warriors their best shot tonight, and that will be good enough to stay within 9.5 points.  Take Charlotte.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Dakota State +16

The Key: The North Dakota State Bison are coming off a 23-10 season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They returned four starters from last year's team and three key reserves, so they have almost everyone back.  They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming by a final of 74-80 on the road to Illinois.  The Bison held a 14-point lead in the first half of that game before getting outscored 52-35 after intermission by the Illini.  Iowa State capped off an Emerald Coast Classic Tournament championship with an 84-73 win over Illinois.  But the Cyclones trailed 57-58 with 11 1/2 minutes remaining in that game.  I believe that common opponent gives a good indication that the Bison can hang with the Cyclones and stay within this 16-point spread.  Iowa State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off four straight games where it scored 80 points or more.  The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Dakota State.

7* Wizards/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +9

The Key: The Washington Wizards have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  But with this slow start comes some line value that is tough to pass up.  After losing four straight coming in, and facing the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers, the Wizards won't be lacking any motivation tonight.  They have had two days off in between games to get ready for Cleveland, too.  Turnovers have been a problem for the Wizards, but the Cavs are 0-8 ATS against teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Washington is 44-23 ATS in its last 67 road games off a close loss by 3 point or less.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers +8

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who played the Timberwolves yesterday.  Not only will this be a 2nd of a back-to-back for the Clippers, it will also be their 5th game in 7 days and 8th game in 12 days.  They have nothing left in the tank for this game against the Blazers tonight.  Portland has not lost by more than 6 points to Los Angeles in any of the last 8 meetings in this series.  I think we're getting great value with the Blazers here given the rest situation.  Take Portland.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Texas +20.5

The Key: North Texas hasn't covered a spread yet (0-3 ATS) this season and is undervalued as a result.  Northern Iowa is 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes an upset 71-67 home win over North Carolina.  It's clear to me that this line is way inflated given the starts these teams have had this season.  North Texas is 2-3 this year, but two losses have come by exactly two points.  Northern Iowa has just one win by more than 20 points during its 4-1 start.  The Panthers are a slow-it-down team, which makes it hard for them to cover big spreads like this one. The Mean Green are  scoring 86.2 points per game on 49.7% shooting, so their offense is fully capable of keeping them competitive in this game.  Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off a win by 30 points or more.  Take North Texas.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the most profitable road team to back this season.  They are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in their eight road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game away from home.  I look for this trend to continue today as they are once again catching too many points against the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Timberwolves have won three in a row coming in, including a 101-91 road win at Sacramento on Friday.  The Clippers aren't playing well enough to be 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Timberwolves improve to 9-0 ATS on the road in 2015.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 197

The Key: The Utah Jazz are a slow-it-down team that plays some of the best defense in the NBA.  The Jazz rank 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  They actually rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging 94.7 possessions per game.  They are 19th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  New Orleans is expected to be without leading scorer Anthony Davis, which is going to make life real difficult for them offensively.  Utah is 15-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Pelicans last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall.  Take the UNDER.