Sports Picks & Predictions

Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-29-15	Wolves +9.5 v. Clippers		99-107	Win	100	4 h 50 m	Show
6* NBA Western Conference CA$H COW on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the most profitable road team to back this season. They are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in their eight road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game away from home. I look for this trend to continue today as they are once again catching too many points against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Timberwolves have won three in a row coming in, including a 101-91 road win at Sacramento on Friday. The Clippers aren't playing well enough to be 9.5-point favorites here. They are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Timberwolves improve to 9-0 ATS on the road in 2015. Take Minnesota.
11-28-15	Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 197		87-101	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
6* NBA Western Conference TOTAL Annihilator on UNDER 197 The Key: The Utah Jazz are a slow-it-down team that plays some of the best defense in the NBA. The Jazz rank 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions. They actually rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging 94.7 possessions per game. They are 19th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions. New Orleans is expected to be without leading scorer Anthony Davis, which is going to make life real difficult for them offensively. Utah is 15-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Pelicans last 16 road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall. Take the UNDER.
11-28-15	George Washington v. Cincinnati -5.5		56-61	Loss	-103	3 h 41 m	Show
6* GW/Cincinnati Barclays Center Classic CA$H COW on Cincinnati -5.5 The Key: Mick Cronin's Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country this season. They are off to a 6-0 start behind their five returning starters. Not only are they winning, they are dominating, outscoring teams by 31.4 points per game. Because they had a close call against Nebraska yesterday, I believe this line is smaller than it should be against George Washington. The Colonials are also 6-0, but they've had much closer games than Cincinnati as four of their six wins have come by single-digits. George Washington is 0-6 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games off 4 straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers. Take Cincinnati.
11-27-15	San Diego State v. West Virginia -2.5		50-72	Win	100	12 h 0 m	Show
6* SDSU/WVU FS1 National TV Annihilator on West Virginia -2.5 The Key: West Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this season. It is 5-0 and has won all five games by 8 points or more, including four by 13 points or more. Three of the five wins have come by 41 or more points as well. San Diego State has already lost two games, including a 43-49 home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock as 16.5-point favorites. I think we're getting great value here on the Mountaineers as only 2.5-point favorites in this Las Vegas Invitational Championship Game. The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Take West Virginia.
11-27-15	Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers		90-111	Loss	-107	12 h 50 m	Show
6* Pelicans/Clippers Western Conference BAILOUT on New Orleans +6.5 The Key: The Pelicans have won three straight coming in thanks to finally getting healthy. Anthony Davis has been a big reason why, scoring at least 20 points and grabbing at least 17 rebounds in all three games. The Pelicans are averaging 115.3 points during this win streak. Sixth man Ryan Anderson has averaged 26.6 points over his last five games. Backup point guard Ish Smith is contributing 18.0 points and 9.5 assists per game over his last four. The Clippers have lost 8 of their last 11 and should not be this heavily favored here. That includes an 11-point home loss to Utah, an 11-point home loss to Toronto, and an 11-point road loss to Portland in three of their last four games overall. Los Angeles is 20-34 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite, and 2-11 ATS in its last 13 November home games. The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings. Take New Orleans.
11-25-15	Massachusetts +4 v. Creighton		76-97	Loss	-105	9 h 52 m	Show
6* NCAAB Wednesday Night CA$H COW on UMass +4 The Key: It's pretty clear that UMass is a better team that Creighton and shouldn't be an underdog in this game. The Minutemen have opened 4-0, which is really impressive when you consider they have been a dog in two games. They beat Harvard 69-63 on the road as 2.5-point underdogs. They also crushed Clemson 82-65 on a neutral court despite being 7.5-point dogs in that game. I have not been impressed with Creighton, which is 3-1. It was crushed 65-86 at Indiana, and it only beat an awful Rutgers team 85-75 as 12-point favorites on a neutral court. The other two wins came against overmatched Texas Southern and UT-San Antonio teams. The Minutemen are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. UMass is 8-1 ATS in its last nine November games. Creighton is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in. Take UMass.
11-25-15	Mavs v. Spurs UNDER 196	Top	83-88	Win	100	8 h 59 m	Show
7* NBA Western Conference TOTAL Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 196 The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are playing tremendous defense this season. They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.1 points per 100 possessions. But their offense has really been lacking recently. They've averaged 93.3 points in their last three games and have turned the ball over 39 times in their last two. This has typically been a low-scoring series of late as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. They have combined for 180, 195 and 192 points in their last three meetings dating back to last season. Dallas is 10-1 UNDER off a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 8-3 in Mavericks last 11 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall. Take the UNDER.
11-24-15	Missouri +7.5 v. Northwestern		62-67	Win	100	7 h 33 m	Show
6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic Game of the Week on Missouri +7.5 The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season. They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters. They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again. They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs. That was before an ugly 42-66 loss to Kansas State yesterday as they shot just 30.9 percent from the floor. I believe that blowout loss has the Tigers catching a few too many points here against Northwestern, which lost 69-80 to UNC yesterday. Northwestern is now 3-1, but two of its wins were far from impressive with a 79-72 home win over Fairfield as 15-point favorites and an 83-80 home win over Columbia as 5.5-point favorites. The Wildcats are a tired team as they'll be playing their 4th game in 7 days. Missouri will only be playing its 2nd game in 7 days. That's the difference here as the Tigers will have a lot more in the tank. Take Missouri.
11-24-15	Pacers v. Wizards -2.5		123-106	Loss	-105	6 h 8 m	Show
6* NBA Eastern Conference CA$H COW on Washington Wizards -2.5 The Key: The Washington Wizards come in playing well having won three straight games over Orlando, Milwaukee and Detroit by a combined 40 points. They have now had two days off in between games, and this will actually be just their 2nd game in 7 days. They'll be full of energy in this one to say the least. The Pacers are also playing well, but they are now overvalued here as only 2.5-point road underdogs in this game. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NBA Central division opponents. Take Washington.
11-23-15	76ers +8 v. Wolves		95-100	Win	100	6 h 6 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Philadelphia 76ers +8 The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to go 0-82. This 0-14 start is ugly, but with that start comes some betting value here in the very near future, and I believe there's a lot of it tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves are improved this season, but they shouldn't be 8-point favorites against anyone. That's especially the case when you consider how poorly they have played at home. The Timberwolves are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in home games this year, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game in the process. The 76ers have gone a profitable 4-3 ATS on the road this year. The Timberwolves are now 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Minnesota is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game. Take Philadelphia.
11-23-15	Kansas State v. Missouri +5.5		66-42	Loss	-112	5 h 1 m	Show
6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic CA$H COW on Missouri +5.5 The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season. They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters. They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again. They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs. That game against Xavier was six days ago so they've had plenty of time to prepare for Kansas State. The Wildcats lost their top three scorers from last year in Marcus Foster, Nino Williams and Thomas Gipson, who all averaged at least 11.3 points per game. They are 3-0 this season, but have taken advantage of an extremely soft schedule with three home games against Maryland-East Shore, Columbia and South Dakota. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Take Missouri.
11-20-15	Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 207		93-90	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
6* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL Annihilator on Knicks/Thunder UNDER 207 The Key: The New York Knicks got a lot better defensively this season when they signed defensive anchor Robin Lopez in the offseason. They are playing great on the defensive end, holding eight of their last nine opponents to less than 100 points. But they haven't been a whole lot better offensively this year, scoring 99 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games. The UNDER is 7-2 in their last 9 games as a result. Their job defensively tonight got a whole lot easier when it was announced that Kevin Durant was going to miss this game as well as he continues to recover from injury. The Thunder just aren't as explosive offensively without him. These teams played in a couple low-scoring affairs last season. They combined for 192 and 183 points in their two meetings. I don't expect that a year later its' going to be any different, especially without Durant and with the way the Knicks are getting after it defensively. OKC is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.
11-19-15	Iowa -2 v. Marquette		89-61	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
6* NCAAB Game of the Night on Iowa -2 The Key: Marquette is clearly in trouble this season. It lost its top scorer from last season in Matt Carlino (15.0 PPG), and three other players who played significant minutes. Only two starters returned for the Golden Eagles. They lost 80-83 at home to Belmont in their opener, and then only beat IUPUI 75-71 at home as 13.5-point favorites last time out. That's the same IUPUI team that lost by 24 at NC State last night. Iowa is a veteran bunch that returned four starters this season. It has handled its business with 76-59 and 103-68 home wins over Gardner Webb and Coppin State, respectively. I look for the Hawkeyes to go on the road and get a win here as a short favorite. Marquette is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or a pick 'em over the last 3 seasons, losing by 13.0 points per game. Take Iowa.
11-19-15	Bucks v. Cavs UNDER 195.5		100-115	Loss	-110	7 h 27 m	Show
6* Bucks/Cavaliers TNT TOTAL Annihilator on UNDER 195.5 The Key: These teams just played a few days ago on November 14 in a double-overtime thriller in which the Bucks won 108-105 at home. But this game was tied 88-88 at the end of regulation, which is 176 combined points, nearly 20 points below this 195.5-point total. These teams are obviously very familiar with each other after having just played, and I look for the defenses to be at an advantage because of it. The UNDER is 17-4 in Bucks last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER.
11-18-15	St. Louis +6 v. SIU-Edwardsville		70-60	Win	100	7 h 46 m	Show
6* NCAAB Wednesday Night CA$H COW on Saint Louis -6 The Key: Saint Louis was in rebuilding mode last year with no returning starters, and it's no surprise they took a step back. But now the Billikens have 4 returning starters in 2015-16 and will be one of the most improved teams in the country. SIU-Edwardsville is in the same situation that Saint Louis was last year. The Panthers have zero returning starters this season. They only have one returning key reserve in C.J. Carr, who averaged 6.2 points per game last year. They are pretty much starting over this year. Saint Louis crushed Hartford 85-68 in its opener while shooting 52.8% from the floor and committing only 7 turnovers. Saint Louis beat SIU-Edwardsville 67-61 at home last year and 82-58 on the road in 2013. I expect a result somewhere in between those two performances. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home win by 10 points or more in the first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more consecutive ATS losses are 30-9 ATS since 1997. Take Saint Louis.
11-18-15	Mavs v. Celtics -4.5	Top	106-102	Loss	-115	7 h 32 m	Show
7* NBA Non-Conference HEAVY HITTER on Boston Celtics -4.5 The Key: The Boston Celtics are rolling right now. They have gone 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall. They are not only winning, they are dominating as all five wins have come by 13 points or more. That includes road wins over Houston and Oklahoma City, as well as home wins over Washington and Atlanta, so it's not like they are beating up on bad teams. The Mavericks are a tired bunch right now as this will be their 7th game in 11 days. Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. teams who win 60% or more of their road games. Take this 14-0 angle backing the Celtics straight to the bank. Take Boston.
11-17-15	Georgetown v. Maryland -7.5		71-75	Loss	-105	8 h 13 m	Show
6* Georgetown/Maryland ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Maryland -7.5 The Key: The Maryland Terrapins are the third-ranked team in the country this season. They returned two of their best players in Melo Trimble (16.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Jake Layman (12.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg). They added in Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, while also nabbing five-star recruit Diamond Stone. The Terrapins got off to a good start this season with an 80-56 win over Mount St. Mary's. Trimble (14) and Layman (16) led five players who scored in double figures as the Terps held Mount St. Mary's to 31.1% shooting and outrebounded them 44-20. Georgetown has just two starters back this year and is in serious trouble after losing 80-82 at home in double-overtime to Radford int he opener. The Hoyas were actually outrebounded 37-43 by Radford, yes Radford. Georgetown is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, losing by 11.5 points per game. Maryland is 42-23 ATS in its last 65 home games off a win by 15 points or more, winning by 21.5 points per game. Take Maryland.
11-17-15	Nuggets v. Pelicans -5.5		115-98	Loss	-104	7 h 54 m	Show
6* NBA Western Conference CA$H COW on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 The Key: At 1-9 on the season, the Pelicans are in desperate need of a win to right the ship. The good news is that Anthony Davis recently returned to the lineup in an 87-95 loss at New York last time out and scored 36 points, so he appears healthy. Look for Davis to lead the Pelicans to a blowout win tonight over the Denver Nuggets, who lost 81-105 in Phoenix last time out. The Nuggets' best player in Kenneth Faried had to sit out the second half of that game, and he's questionable to return tonight with a back injury. Denver is 1-12 ATS when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons, losing by 8.2 points per game in this spot. The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two years, losing by 10.8 points per game. Denver is 0-8 ATS after scoring 35 or fewer points in the first half last game over the last three seasons, losing by 11.3 points per game. The Pelicans are 24-8 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last two seasons. Take New Orleans.
11-16-15	San Diego State v. Utah UNDER 132		76-81	Loss	-110	8 h 12 m	Show
6* SDSU/Utah ESPN 2 TOTAL Annihilator on UNDER 132 The Key: Utah and San Diego State are two teams that make a living off their defense. The Aztecs finished second in Division 1 in scoring defense last season at 53.9 points per game and 3rd in fewer points per possession. They limited Illinois State to 30.8 percent shooting in their opener. Utah held its opponents to 41.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts last season behind the efforts of defensive anchor Jakob Poeltl. Both teams went over the total in their openers, which I think is why this total has been inflated. San Diego State beat Illinois State 71-60 while Utah beat Southern Utah 82-71 and allowed 50% shooting, including 10 of 19 from 3-point range. But look for the Utes to come back with a much stronger effort defensively in this one. This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. SDSU beat Utah 53-49 at home last year for 102 combined points despite the total being set at 130.5. In their previous meeting, SDSU beat Utah 64-50 for 114 combined points with a total of 127. SDSU is 40-22 UNDER in all games over the last three seasons. Utah is 16-6 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three years. Take the UNDER.
11-16-15	Pacers +6 v. Bulls		95-96	Win	100	7 h 47 m	Show
6* NBA Eastern Conference CA$H COW on Indiana Pacers +6 The Key: The grand plan of the Pacers to go smaller this season and utilize the talents of Paul George and Monte Ellis is coming to fruition. The Pacers are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with their only loss coming to the beat team in the Eastern Conference in the Cleveland Cavaliers by a final of 97-101 on the road as 8-point underdogs. George is averaging 29.3 points and 9.3 boards while shooting 47.5 percent, including 19 of 40 from 3-point range, over his last six games. Indiana is 10-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Take Indiana.
11-15-15	Raptors v. Kings +3		101-107	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Sacramento Kings +3 The Key: After a 1-7 start, the Sacramento Kings had a team meeting and it has really brought this club together. They have won two straight behind a healthy return of DeMarcus Cousins and a more comfortable Rajon Rondo. Cousins scored 30 of his 40 points in the second half while Rondo has 23 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds in a win over the Nets on Friday. Cousins has now amassed 73 points in back-to-back wins over the Pistons and Nets. The Kings have averaged 107.5 points in games that Cousins has played this year, and only 97.5 in the four that he's missed. Sacramento is 15-3 straight up in its last 18 home meetings with Toronto and should not be an underdog here. Take Sacramento.
11-14-15	76ers v. Spurs UNDER 196		83-92	Win	100	17 h 9 m	Show
6* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL Annihilator on 76ers/Spurs UNDER 196 The Key: Philadelphia just lost 85-102 at Oklahoma City last night in a low-scoring affair that saw 187 combined points. I expect more of the same from them tonight against the Spurs. The last time they traveled to San Antonio last season, they lost 75-100 for 175 combined points. The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging just 92.7 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is at least decent with all of the big guys in the middle at their disposal, but they can't get anything going offensively. It's not going to get any easier tonight against a Spurs team that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 94.3 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER off a road win where it scored 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 (76ers) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of less than 25% and playing a team with a winning record are 72-32 since 1996. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio. Take the UNDER.
11-13-15	Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 203.5	Top	90-84	Win	100	6 h 16 m	Show
7* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 203.5 The Key: When looking at the recent history between the Cavs and Knicks, it's easy to see that there is some serious value with the UNDER 203.5 tonight. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 182, 184, 177 and 185 points, which comes out to an average of 182 points per game. That's 21.5 points less than this 203.5-point total. These teams just played on November 4 with 182 combined points. This total just makes no sense to me with how high it has been set, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER. Take the UNDER.
11-12-15	Warriors v. Wolves +9.5		129-116	Loss	-110	7 h 48 m	Show
6* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT CA$H COW on Minnesota +9.5 The Key: The Golden State Warriors are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. I always look to fade teams in this spot, and this is a prime opportunity to do so. The Warriors are 9-0 and the betting public cannot get enough of them right now. Oddsmakers are forced to jack up their lines game in and game out, and it's going to be profitable to fade them sooner rather than later. This looks like the prime opportunity to do so as the Warriors would have to go on the road and win by double-digits in this spot to beat us. Minnesota is 4-3 this season with 4 wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, Bulls and Hawks all on the road, and three of those coming by 9 points or more. The Timberwolves will be motivated for their first home win here. Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio both didn't play against Charlotte on Tuesday, but both are coming back for this game. The Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Minnesota.
11-11-15	Bucks v. Nuggets -3		102-103	Loss	-108	8 h 14 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Denver Nuggets -3 The Key: The Denver Nuggets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight, so they will be ready to go when they welcome the Milwaukee Bucks. The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after their 83-99 loss at home to Boston yesterday. Making matters worse for the Bucks is that three of their best players are expected to miss this game in O.J. Mayo, Jabari Parker and Michael Carter-Williams. The thick air in Denver is going to play a big role here. The Bucks haven't had much luck in Denver anyways, going 8-36 in 44 meetings all-time. They have dropped five straight trips to Denver as well. Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games against the Western Conference. Take Denver.
11-11-15	Pacers v. Celtics -3.5	Top	102-91	Loss	-105	7 h 44 m	Show
7* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5 The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They had a tremendous preseason and that has carried over into the regular season. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over quality opponents in Washington (118-98) and Milwaukee (99-83). Yes, they did play last night against the Bucks, but they had three days off before that game, so that makes this second of a back-to-back a non-factor. Plus, the Celtics will bring plenty of energy into this one anyways as they want revenge from their 98-100 road loss to Indiana a week ago today. The Pacers are overvalued heading into this game because they have gone 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall. Boston was a 2-point road favorite at Indiana in the first meeting, and now it is only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch. Based on that 2-point spread, the Celtics should be roughly 8-point home favorites here when you factor in home-court advantage. I believe were are getting them at a discounted price as a result. Boston is 14-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons. This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is why the Celtics have been so profitable to back in these no rest situations. Take Boston.
11-10-15	Lakers +11 v. Heat		88-101	Loss	-103	7 h 6 m	Show
6* NBA Non-Conference CA$H COW on Los Angeles Lakers +11 The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers have been better than their 1-5 record would indicate. They just haven't been able to close games late because they have been in almost every game they've played. Four of their five losses have come by 11 points or less, and if they lose this game Tuesday, it's likely to be by 11 or less once again. The Miami Heat are coming off a huge 96-76 home win over Toronto last time out that has them overvalued. But the Heat haven't won two straight games yet this season as they've alternated wins and losses. The Lakers were awful last year and not as good as they are this year, yet they only lost to the Heat by 6 and 3 points. In fact, each of the last 9 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less, which is even more impressive when you consider Lebron James played the majority of those games for the Heat. That's a 9-0 angle when you figure in this 11-point spread tonight. Take Los Angeles.
11-09-15	Blazers v. Nuggets		104-108	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
6* NBA Western Conference CA$H COW on Denver Nuggets PK The Key: The Denver Nuggets are hungry for a win after dropping two straight and four of their last five. They have had two days off in between games having last played on Friday. So they had the entire weekend to correct their mistakes. Head coach Mike Malone was pleased with the way his team responded in the second half against the Warriors on Friday, outscoring them 60-45 after intermission while shooting 51.1 percent. Look for that effort to carry over into this game. The Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. They were outscored 41-11 in the 4th quarter to lose to the Pistons 103-120 last night. I look for them to come out flat in this game after that brutal finish and because their starters are asked to play so many minutes. The Blazers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss by more than 10 points. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. Take Denver.
11-08-15	Suns v. Thunder -8		103-124	Win	100	14 h 17 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 The Key: The Thunder have lost three straight games by all by 6 points or less to three good teams in Houston, Toronto and Chicago, with two of those losses coming on the road. They also had to play 4 games in 5 days during that losing streak, so it was just a very difficult stretch of games. They've had two days off to regroup, rest, and get better as a team. I expect them to put their best foot forward now as they return home to face the Phoenix Suns. They weren't healthy last year, yet they won 3 out of 4 meetings with the Suns with two of those coming by 12 and 24 points. The Thunder are a dangerous team now at full strength with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka all healthy. They'll cruise to victory tonight in a huge effort to end this losing streak. Take Oklahoma City.
11-07-15	Rockets v. Clippers OVER 215.5		109-105	Loss	-105	9 h 8 m	Show
6* Rockets/Clippers Western Conference BAILOUT on OVER 215.5 The Key: These are two teams that love to push the tempo as they both rank in the top 10 in the NBA in possessions per game. That's going to lead to a high-scoring game tonight, which is the usual outcome when these teams get together. They have combined for 213, 226, 227, 223, 223, 224 and 218 points in their last seven meetings, respectively. That's an average of 222 combined points per game. Because of this, I believe there's some value with the over 215.5 tonight. Houston has combined with its opponents for 226, 233 and 215 points in its last three games overall. The OVER is 9-1 in Clippers last 10 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 10-3 in Clippers lats 13 games overall. The OVER is 15-5 in Clippers last 20 Saturday games. The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Take the OVER.
11-06-15	Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 211		104-119	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
6* Nuggets/Warriors Western Conference BAILOUT on OVER 211 The Key: The Nuggets are going to make a concentrated effort to push the tempo tonight after their 84-96 loss to defensive-minded Utah last night. "In our losses, we've had too many ups and downs," said Danilo Gallinari, who scored a team-high 18 points. "We cannot allow ourselves to have too many ups and downs and have lapses in the game where we don't have pace". The Warriors play at the league's fourth-fastest pace this season and lead the NBA in averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions. Looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that there is value with the OVER. These teams have gone 3-1 to the OVER in their last four meetings while averaging 226.3 combined points per game. That's roughly 15 points more than tonight's posted total of 211. Take the OVER.
11-06-15	Wizards v. Celtics		98-118	Win	100	7 h 47 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Boston Celtics PK The Key: The Boston Celtics were one of the most impressive teams in the preseason with their 6-1 record while ranking 2nd in the NBA in efficiency, outscoring teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions. It hasn't exactly translated into the regular season with their 1-3 start, but their three losses have come to the Raptors, Spurs and Pacers. Off 3 straight losses, look for the Celtics to be playing with a little extra motivation tonight. At the same time, I expect the Wizards to come out flat following Bradley Beal's last-second 3-pointer to down the Spurs 102-99 on Wednesday. The Wizards are 3-1, but all three wins have come by 5 points or fewer, and two against the lowly Magic and Bucks. They also lost to the Knicks at home. The home team went 3-0 in their 3 meetings last year. The Wizards are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a win by 6 points or less, coming back to lose by 5.5 points per game in this situation. Take Boston.
11-05-15	Hornets v. Mavs -4.5		108-94	Loss	-108	8 h 33 m	Show
6* NBA Non-Conference CA$H COW on Dallas Mavericks -4.5 The Key: The 1-3 Charlotte Hornets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 4.5-point road underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks. They are coming off a huge offensive performance against the Bulls to get their first win of the season, which has them overvalued. But now they take on a Western Conference playoff contender in the Dallas Mavericks, whose two losses this season have come against two of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers and Raptors. The Mavericks have won 23 of their last 24 meetings with the Hornets in which Dirk Nowitzki has played. They have held Charlotte to below 100 points 13 times in a 14-game home winning streak in this series. I look for their home dominance in this series to continue tonight. Take Dallas.
11-04-15	Knicks +10.5 v. Cavs		86-96	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
6* Knicks/Cavs NBA on ESPN CA$H COW on New York +10.5 The Key: The New York Knicks have played their best basketball on the road this season. They won 122-97 at Milwaukee as 4.5-point underdogs and 117-110 at Washington as 7-point dogs. Their only two losses came at home against two of the best teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. So, they have played four playoff teams from last year, and they've handled themselves very well. Cleveland is overvalued right now due to a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start. That was the case for the Cavaliers as they failed to cover as 13-point road favorites in a 7-point win at Philadelphia last time out, and it's the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites when they shouldn't be. The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Cleveland. Take New York.
11-03-15	Raptors v. Mavs +1.5		102-91	Loss	-104	7 h 56 m	Show
6* NBA Non-Conference CA$H COW on Dallas Mavericks +1.5 The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 3-0 and overvalued as 1.5-point road favorites over the Dallas Mavericks as a result. They have beaten three teams who are a combined 2-8 on the season. Now they face a Dallas team that is getting healthy with Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons returning to the lineup. The Mavs are 2-1 this season despite playing three tough road games already. They are going to be amped up for their home opener tonight. The Mavericks are 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings with the Raptors. Take Dallas.
11-02-15	Spurs v. Knicks +8		94-84	Loss	-105	7 h 7 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on New York Knicks +8 The Key: The New York Knicks got better this offseason than most people think. Just having a healthy Carmelo Anthony back has made a huge difference, but four new players are making big-time contributions en route to a 2-1 start. Derrick Williams is averaging 13.3 points per game, Robin Lopez is averaging 11.3 points and 1.7 blocks, Kristaps Porzingis is putting up 11.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, and Kyle O'Quinn is averaging 9.3 points and 7.7 boards. The Knicks beat the Bucks 122-97 on the road and the Wizards 117-110 on the road, which were two payoff teams last year. They have had a day off since that win over the Wizards on Saturday. The Spurs, meanwhile, will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here after beating the Celtics 95-87 Sunday. The Spurs are obviously up there in age, so I'll be looking to go against them in these types of situations all year. New York has actually won 4 of its last 6 meetings with San Antonio, including 3 of its last 4 home meetings. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take New York.
11-01-15	Bucks +7 v. Raptors		87-106	Loss	-108	7 h 48 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Milwaukee Bucks +7 The Key: The Bucks are 0-2 right now and desperate for their first victory of the season, while the Raptors are 2-0 and overvalued here as 7-point favorites as a result. This Bucks team is better than they have shown through their first two games, and I look for them to prove it tonight. When a game is expected to be high-scoring, the Bucks usually have success because their defense is so good. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS in a road game when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Toronto is in a bad spot here. The Raptors are 2-11 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. I'll gladly back both of these situations in what will likely be an outright win for the Bucks. Take Milwaukee.
10-31-15	Suns v. Blazers -2.5		101-90	Loss	-110	8 h 17 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 The Key: This is one of my favorite situations. This is a home-and-home situation where the Blazers played in Phoenix last night and lost 92-110, but now they play for a second straight night, this time in Portland. I look for the Blazers to have their revenge at home. They won their home opener 112-94 over New Orleans behind 37 points from one of the most underrated players in the NBA in C.J. McCollum. This Blazers roster is much better than it gets credit for despite the loss of four starters from last year. They space the floor very well with 3-point shooters everywhere, which is perfect for today's NBA. McCollum and Damian Lillard can both get to the rim at will and make plays for their shooters. It's definitely the most underrated guard tandem in the league. The Blazers only shot 19 free throws last night while the Suns shot 42. The Blazers voiced their frustration over the officiating, and I look for them to get the calls at home tonight. The home team is 7-2 in the last nine meetings. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Portland.
10-31-15	Warriors v. Pelicans +5		134-120	Loss	-110	6 h 48 m	Show
6* Warriors/Pelicans Western Conference CA$H COW on New Orleans +5 The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans are out for some serious revenge on the Warriors. Not only did they get swept in the playoffs last year, they also lost the opener on ring night to the Warriors 95-111 on the road. They are 0-2 on the season with two road losses, but now they return home and have had two days off in between games to get ready for the Warriors. Golden State won't have that same luxury as it won at Houston last night and will be playing the second of a back-to-back. Two of the past three meetings in New Orleans have gone to overtime. Andrew Bogut is hurt for the Warriors, so look for Anthony Davis to have a field day. Davis went just 4-of-20 in the opener against the Warriors with Bogut on the floor, but that was a fluke as he's averaged 30.9 points on 56.9 percent shooting in his previous seven matchups with Golden State. New Orleans is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games off a road loss. The Pelicans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 41-20-3 ATS in their last 64 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take New Orleans.
10-30-15	Nets v. Spurs -14		75-102	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
6* NBA Non-Conference BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -14 The Key: The Brooklyn Nets might be the worst team in the NBA this season. They still have Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez around, but outside of those two it's very ugly. They are starting Shane Larkin and Wayne Ellington, who combined for six points in a season-opening 100-115 home loss to the Bulls. They are an awful defensive team that the Spurs should shred up. San Antonio lost 106-112 at Oklahoma City and will be motivated for its first win in its home opener tonight. The Spurs may be the best team in the NBA now that they added LaMarcus Aldridge. Kawhi Leonard has arrived, scoring a career-high 32 points against the Thunder. The Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Spurs are 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take San Antonio.
10-29-15	Hawks v. Knicks +4.5		112-101	Loss	-103	7 h 28 m	Show
6* Hawks/Knicks NBA on TNT CA$H COW on New York +4.5 The Key: The New York Knicks are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, while the Atlanta Hawks are going to take a big step back. I love all of the moves the Knicks made this offseason, and it really paid off in their opener in a 122-97 rout at Milwaukee. Newcomers Derrick Williams and Kristaps Porzingis combined for 40 points. The Knicks bench outscored Milwaukee's reserves 73-32 in a game where Carmelo Anthony didn't have to do much as he scored just 11 points on 4-of-16 shooting. That's a great sign for this team going forward. The Hawks lost key wing DeMarre Carroll to the Raptors this offseason and aren't going to be nearly as good without his presence on both ends of the floor. His replacement, Kent Bazemore, went scoreless in in 21 minutes in a 94-106 home loss to Detroit in the opener. The Hawks should not be favored on the road tonight. The Knicks played them tough last season as all three games were decided by 7 points or less. Take New York.
10-28-15	Wolves v. Lakers -3		112-111	Loss	-101	10 h 33 m	Show
6* Timberwolves/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3 The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers are finally healthy to open the 2015-16 season and should be able to play some great basketball in the early going as a result. Kobe Bryant is back, and they've added in some nice pieces in Roy Hibbert, Lou Williams and De'Angelo Russell. Julius Randle played great in the preseason and looks fully recovered from his season-ending injury that he suffered in the opener last year. Jordan Clarkson is an up-and-coming star, so the Lakers are in really good shape with their starting 5, plus they have Williams, Nick Young and Brandon Bass providing some offensive punch off the bench. The Timberwolves have one of the worst rosters in the NBA, and that showed in the preaseson as they ranked 30th in efficiency, getting outscored by 11.0 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers have won 29 of their last 34 meetings with the Timberwolves, including 17 of their last 19 at home. Take Los Angeles.
10-28-15	Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 193.5		122-97	Loss	-110	7 h 3 m	Show
6* NBA Wednesday TOTAL Annihilator on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 193.5 The Key: The New York Knicks improved their defense this offseason by signing Robin Lopez, who is one of the best defensive centers in the league. His presence has been felt in the preseason as the Knicks ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 94.8 points per 100 possessions. The Milwaukee Bucks were a great defensive team last year in allowing just 43.7% shooting to opponents. The Knicks averaged just 91.9 points on 42.8% shooting last year, while the Bucks managed to shoot just 45.4% from the field. The final three meetings between these teams last year saw 190, 174 and 177 combined points, which is an average of 180.3 combined points per game. I look for this game to finish in the 180-point range as well. The Knicks are without shooting guard Aaron Afflalo, which hampers their offense. The Bucks are without Jabari Parker, O.J. Mayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, which hampers them as well. Take the UNDER.
10-28-15	Bulls v. Nets UNDER 196.5	Top	115-100	Loss	-105	6 h 4 m	Show
7* NBA Eastern Conference HEAVY HITTER on Bulls/Nets UNDER 196.5 The Key: The Bulls and Nets are accustomed to playing in low-scoring games when they get together. None of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 200 or more combined points. They have combined for 199, 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points in their last nine meetings. That's an average of 182.7 points per game, which is well below this posted total of 196. It's also an 8-1 angle backing the under. The Nets have one of the least-talented rosters in the NBA, and the Bulls don't have the personnel to run the up-tempo offense that Fred Hoiberg liked to run while he was at Iowa State. The Nets run their offense through Brook Lopez, so they are a slow-it-down team this year. Plus, starting PG Jarrett Jack is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury for the Nets. The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have a lot of energy to get up and down the court on offense. Take the UNDER.
10-27-15	New Orleans Pelicans v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 213	Top	95-111	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
7* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Tuesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213 The Key: These teams are very familiar with one another after the Warriors swept the Pelicans in the playoffs last year. Adding to that familiarity to open 2015-16 is that first-year head coach Alvin Gentry was an assistant for the Warriors last season. That will be an interesting dynamic and one that should help lead to a low-scoring opener with all this familiarity. These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points in five of their past six meetings at the end of regulation. They have combined for 207, 216, 184, 205, 203 and 208 points at the end of regulation in their last six meetings. The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Pelicans last 12 games overall. The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Warriors last 11 home games. The UNDER is 44-19-1 in Warriors last 64 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings. Take the UNDER.
06-16-15	Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5	Top	105-97	Loss	-110	8 h 15 m	Show
7* Warriors/Cavs Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Cleveland +4.5 The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing desperate basketball tonight in this elimination game. I look for Lebron James and company to show up in a big way at home tonight. There is clearly some value here with the Cavs considering they are bigger home dogs in Game 6 than at any other point in this series. David Blatt made a mistake by going small ball against the Warriors in Game 5, and I look for him to make the proper adjustments and give Timofey Mozgov more minutes tonight. The Cavs' only chance of winning is to grind it out like they did in the first three games. They cannot get in a shootout with the Warriors. So, look for them to have their best defensive lineup on the court for the majority of this contest, which will work to their advantage. Plays against favorites when leading in a playoff series who win 75% or more of their games against a good team that wins 60% to 75% are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996. Cleveland is 15-3 ATS when playing four consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons. Golden State is 3-12 ATS in road games after having won two of its last three games this season. The Cavs are 11-3 ATS in home games revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more this season. Take Cleveland.
06-14-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -8	Top	91-104	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
7* Cavaliers/Warriors Game 5 HEAVY HITTER on Golden State -8 The Key: This series has a familiar feel to the Memphis series for Golden State. The Warriors were down 2-1 to the Grizzlies and needing a win on the road to square the series. They won Game 4 by 17 points and went on to win by 20 at home and by 13 on the road to end the series 4-2. The Warriors were down 2-1 to the Cavs needing a win on the road, and they came through with a 21-point win in Game 4. This series is now over in my opinion. The Cavs just don't have enough ammo without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, and the Warriors will exploit them the rest of the way, including in a Game 5 blowout victory tonight. Golden State is 24-9 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. The Cavs are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a double-digit home loss. The Warriors are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing with two days of rest. Take Golden State.
06-11-15	Golden State Warriors -2.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	103-82	Win	100	11 h 34 m	Show
7* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Golden State -2.5 The Key: The Golden State Warriors just haven't played like themselves these first three games. The same thing happened against Memphis in the Western Conference Semifinals. They were forced to slow it down and play at Memphis' pace and found themselves down 2-1 facing a crucial Game 4 on the road. The Warriors would win the next three games of that series while scoring 101, 98 and 108 points and winning all three by 13 points or more as they got back to playing their brand of basketball. I look for the same thing to happen in Game 4 of this series with their backs against the wall. Cleveland shot 15 more free throws than Golden State in Game 2 and 12 more in Game 3. They aren't going to have that kind of an advantage again in Game 4 as the Warriors get much more aggressive. Plus, Golden State is 10-0 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the past two seasons. Take Golden State.
06-09-15	Golden State Warriors -1.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	91-96	Loss	-107	8 h 7 m	Show
7* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors -1.5 The Key: The Golden State Warriors have seen their offense take a step back through the first two games of this series. They were held to less than 100 points by the end of regulation in both contests. Simply put, they have not been playing the brand of basketball that got them to this point. I expect Steve Kerr to get his team back to playing the free-flowing offense that made them the top offensive team in the NBA this year. Cleveland's defense has been good, but its offense is just too predictable now without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. That's a huge advantage for the Warriors, and one I expect them to not only exploit tonight, but throughout the rest of the series. Golden State is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games following a loss. The Warriors are 15-7 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season. Take Golden State.
06-07-15	Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	95-93	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
7* Cavaliers/Warriors Game 2 HEAVY HITTER on Cleveland +8 The Key: Almost everyone is counting out the Cleveland Cavaliers now that they lost starting point guard Kyrie Irving for the rest of the series. Well, Lebron James isn't going to let his teammates believe that they are finished. They have been through plenty of adversity to get to this point, and they aren't going to just fold now. I look for them to easily cover this 8-point spread in Game 2, and to likely pull off the upset. Cleveland is 13-3 ATS against Western Conference opponents in its last 16. Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Sunday games. Take Cleveland.
06-04-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 203.5	Top	100-108	Win	100	9 h 16 m	Show
7* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 "Total" Annihilator on OVER 203.5 The Key: This NBA Finals figures to be a high-scoring affair between two of the best offensive teams in the league. I believe this 203.5-point total for Game 1 will be the lowest of the series as they combine to sail way over the total, which will have oddsmakers adjusting future games to have higher totals. The Warriors put up 109.1 points per game overall and 111.2 points per game at home. I look for them to approach their season averages against a Cleveland defense that is giving up 99.3 points per game on the road. Cleveland is scoring 102.9 points per game overall, but it's offense has been much more efficient when Lebron James has been healthy. The Cavs scored a combined 116.0 points per game in their final two games against Atlanta last series. The two regular season meetings between these teams averaged 206.5 combined points per game, and Lebron James didn't play in one of them. Golden State is 23-6 OVER off a game with 70 or more rebounds. Take the OVER.
05-27-15	Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10	Top	90-104	Win	100	9 h 28 m	Show
7* Rockets/Warriors Game 5 HEAVY HITTER on Golden State -10 The Key: After getting thoroughly embarrassed in Game 4, and knowing that the Cavs already clinched a trip to the NBA Finals, I look for the Golden State Warriors to close out this series with a blowout home victory in Game 5. The Warriors allowed the Rockets to shoot 56.6% in Game 4, which is simply unacceptable. Look for them to come out with more of a sense of urgency in Game 5 tonight on both ends of the floor. Golden State is 8-0 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The Warriors are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss. Take Golden State.
05-26-15	Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 194	Top	88-118	Loss	-103	8 h 56 m	Show
7* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194 The Key: After an extremely high-scoring Game 3 in this series, I feel that the oddsmakers have set the total too high for Game 4. They have raised the total up from 190 in Game 3 to 194 for Game 4 based on the last contest alone. The Cavaliers are short-handed offensively right now as they are likely without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love again. The Hawks are without Kyle Korver for the rest of the postseason, which really hurts their floor spacing. Lebron James is also hurt right now, but playing through it. Atlanta is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 when facing elimination in a playoff series. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks' last five games overall. The UNDER is 36-16-1 in Cavaliers last 53 when playing on one days' rest. Take the UNDER.
05-25-15	Golden State Warriors -4.5 v. Houston Rockets	Top	115-128	Loss	-115	9 h 1 m	Show
7* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Golden State -4.5 The Key: I just cannot foresee the Houston Rockets even showing up tonight in Game 4. They would have to show some pride to do so, but after losing Game 3 by 35 points, they obviously have no pride. The Warriors will end this series with yet another blowout victory in Game 4 tonight. They have been playing lights out for a couple weeks now with six straight wins, four of which have come by double-digits. Golden State has gone 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games following a win by 15 points or more as well. Take Golden State.
05-24-15	Atlanta Hawks +9.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	111-114	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
7* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 3 HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta +9.5 The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have not even looked good in losing their first two games of this series to the Cleveland Cavaliers. As a result, the oddsmakers have overreacted in listing the Cavaliers as big favorites in Game 3. The Hawks know that their season is at stake today, so they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win. I believe their effort will be good enough to cover this inflated 9.5-point spread today. The Hawks are 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses against an opponent) this season. They are a great bet in this situation today. Take Atlanta.
05-23-15	Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets OVER 214	Top	115-80	Loss	-115	9 h 55 m	Show
7* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on OVER 214 The Key: This is strictly a value play. The oddsmakers set the Warriors/Rockets total at 220 for Game 1 and 219 for Game 2. Now, they have lowered the total all the way down to 214 for Game 3. They have been forced to do so because the first two games went under the total. Now, the clear value is with the over in Game 3. Te OVER is 11-3 in Rockets last 14 home games. The OVER is 14-6 in Rockets last 20 games overall. The OVER is 37-18 in Rockets last 55 games following a loss. Take the OVER.
05-22-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1	Top	94-82	Loss	-105	8 h 39 m	Show
7* NBA Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -1 The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are already playing without Kevin Love. Now, both Lebron James and Kyrie Irving are hobbled. James suffered an ankle injury in Game 1, while Irving was non-existent in the opener as he's clearly still nursing his knee injury. J.R. Smith was there to save the day as he scored 28 points, including 8-of-12 from 3-point range. That was a once-a-playoffs game for Smith, who can't keep this up. It's clear that James and Irving are going to need some more help in Game 2, and I just don't believe they'll get it. The Hawks will be playing with an edge tonight as they look to avoid falling down 0-2 in this series. After all, they are 40-8 at home this season and rarely lose here. The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games when revenging a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three years. Take Atlanta.
05-21-15	Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10		98-99	Loss	-110	9 h 28 m	Show
6* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 CA$H COW on Golden State -10 The Key: The Houston Rockets played great in Game 1 and still lost. James Harden could not have had a better game as he did everything in his power to keep the Rockets in the game, but it still wasn't enough. Don't expect the Rockets to get that kind of game from Harden again. Now, Dwight Howard is injured and may not play for them in Game 2. Meanwhile, Golden State got a big game from Stephon Curry, but the rest of the starting lineup was ho-hum, and Klay Thompson has his worst game of the playoffs. Look for the Warriors to get more help for Curry in Game 2, which will help them cover this 10-point spread. The Warriors are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Warriors are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Golden State.
05-20-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -105	Top	97-89	Loss	-105	8 h 1 m	Show
7* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 1 HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta PK The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have gone 40-7 at home this season. Yet, the oddsmakers aren't giving them any respect here as they aren't even favored against the Cavaliers. That's the same Cavaliers team that they have gone 3-1 against this season with all three wins coming by 8-plus points. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Atlanta has owned Cleveland at home here of late, going 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings. Take Atlanta.
05-19-15	Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10	Top	106-110	Loss	-108	9 h 52 m	Show
7* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 HEAVY HITTER on Golden State -10 The Key: The Golden State Warriors have a huge edge in the rest department in Game 1 tonight. They come in on three days' rest since taking out the Grizzlies in six games. The Rockets only come in on one days' rest after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers. There's no question that this will be an advantage for the Warriors, who catch the Rockets emotionally and physically drained. Golden State beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series, and I look for a similar result in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when playing on three or more days of rest. The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. Take Golden State.
05-17-15	Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets	Top	100-113	Loss	-110	4 h 39 m	Show
7* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 HEAVY HITTER on Los Angeles -2 The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers showed their resiliency in the opening round. They had the toughest opening round opponent in the San Antonio Spurs, and found themselves down 3-2 facing a road game in Game 6. They went into San Antonio and won, and then they finished off the series with an exciting home win in Game 7. While they let Game 6 slip away in this series, I fully expect them to respond in Game 7 with a road win at Houston. Plays on road favorites playing with double revenge after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points are 57-24 ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites who give up 99 or more points per game after allowing 55 or more points in the first half of two straight games are 45-14 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Los Angeles.
05-15-15	Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 194	Top	108-95	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 6 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194 The Key: The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in this series, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for it. The first total of this series was 196 points, and the total for Game 6 is only 194 points. I still believe there's a ton of value here on the UNDER considering these teams haven't combined for more than 188 points in any game yet. They have averaged just 184.6 combined points per game in the series, which is still nearly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 194. Plus, this game will be played in Memphis, and that means the Grizzlies will likely control the tempo as they love to play a half-court game. The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors L6 games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 Conference Semifinals games. The UNDER is 24-2 in Grizzllies last 26 home games. Take this combined 36-2 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight. Take the UNDER.
05-14-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 192	Top	94-73	Win	100	8 h 15 m	Show
7* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Bulls UNDER 192 The Key: The over has gone 3-1 in the last four games in this series. That has provided us with ample value on the UNDER tonight. Games in Chicago have been much lower-scoring than games in Cleveland, simply because Chicago controls the tempo when playing at home, and it likes to play at a slower pace. These teams have averaged 182.5 combined points per game in the two meetings in Chicago this series. In an elimination game, the intensity will be high for both teams, especially on the defensive end of the floor. The Bulls are 33-23 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. Chicago is 11-3 UNDER after covering 5 or 6 of its last 7 games this season. The UNDER is 4-1 in Cavs last 5 road games. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Cavs last 51 games when playing on 1 days' rest. Take the UNDER.
05-13-15	Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	78-98	Loss	-103	11 h 35 m	Show
7* Grizzlies/Warriors Game 5 HEAVY HITTER on Memphis +9.5 The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies are showing great value as nearly double-digit underdogs to the Golden State Warriors tonight in Game 5. This line is clearly an overreaction from Golden State winning Game 4 by 17 points in Memphis. The Grizzlies had their worst shooting game of the series at 37.5% in that contest to essentially give it away. I look for them to get back up into the 45% range in Game 5, where they have been most of the series. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Memphis is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall. Golden State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games. Take Memphis.
05-12-15	Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 219	Top	103-124	Loss	-110	9 h 18 m	Show
7* Clippers/Rockets Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 219 The Key: With the OVER being 4-0 through the first four games of this series, I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in Game 5. It's clear that the hack-a-Jordan has not worked for the Rockets, and I expect them to go away from it tonight, which will aid the under. They just cannot afford to have so many guys in foul trouble as it has continued to haunt them in the second half of most of these games. This 219-point total is seven points higher than Game 1's 212-point total, which alone shows that there is value with the UNDER. Plays on the UNDER on teams where the total is greater than 210 (Clippers) - after a win by 10 pints or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 or more in two straight games are 41-10 (80.4%) over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER.
05-11-15	Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 196	Top	101-84	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 196 The Key: The reason the Memphis Grizzlies have a 2-1 series lead is because they have forced the Golden State Warriors to play at their pace both home and away. They have combined for 187, 187 and 188 points as the UNDER is 3-0 in the first three games in this series. I look for more of the same in Game 4 with the Grizzlies controlling the tempo playing at home. Memphis is 25-8 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season. The UNDER is 23-3 in Grizzlies last 26 home games. Take the UNDER.
05-10-15	Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 v. Chicago Bulls	Top	86-84	Loss	-105	4 h 55 m	Show
7* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Cleveland -2.5 The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a must-win situation tonight in Chicago. Lebron James tends to play his best games with his back against the wall, and I look for him to lead the Cavs to victory in Game 4 tonight to avoid falling to 1-3 in this series. The Cavs caught a break when Pau Gasol injured his hamstring in Game 3, putting his status for Game 4 in question. Chicago is 23-43 ATS in its last 66 home games off a close win by 3 points or less. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Following a Game 1 loss, they responded with a 15-point victory in Game 2. Expect more of the same today. Take Cleveland.
05-09-15	Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Washington Wizards	Top	101-103	Loss	-102	6 h 16 m	Show
7* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta -3.5 The Key: The Atlanta Hawks smell blood in the water. They took advantage of John Wall being out in Game 2 and ran away with a 106-90 victory. I believe another blowout victory is in store in Game 3 with the Wizards expected to be without Wall again. There may not be one player more important to their team than Wall, who runs the show offensively while putting up huge assists numbers up to this point in the playoffs. The Wizards are 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. Washington is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. Take Atlanta.
05-08-15	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 195.5	Top	96-99	Win	100	7 h 28 m	Show
7* Cavs/Bulls Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 195.5 The Key: This is the highest total set yet in this series between the Cavs and Bulls. That's because they are coming off and OVER in Game 2 where they combined for 197 points as the Cavs put up 106 and shot 12 of 26 from 3-point range. I look for Game 3 to be much lower scoring, and the fact that this is the highest total yet in the series signifies some line value here with the UNDER. Chicago doesn't want to get in a track meet, and it will control the tempo playing at home this time around. Chicago is 16-5 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The UNDER is 21-9 in Cavs last 30 Conference Semifinals games. The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Cavs last 61 games when playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven games off a S.U. loss. Take the UNDER.
05-06-15	Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5	Top	109-115	Loss	-110	10 h 47 m	Show
7* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Houston Rockets -6.5 The Key: The Houston Rockets know they let a golden opportunity slip away in Game 1 by not showing up with the effort they needed to beat the Clippers without Chris Paul. The Clippers are expected to be without Paul again, so don't expect the same lackluster effort from the Rockets as they look to avoid dropping to 0-2. The Rockets have been tremendous in this situation all season where they are coming off a bad performance and time and time again bounce back. Houston is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by 10.7 points per game. Houston is 7-0 ATS off an upset by 10 points or more as a favorite, winning by 12.7 points per game. The Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss this season. Take this combined 29-2 system backing Houston straight to the bank tonight. Take Houston.
05-05-15	Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks -6	Top	90-106	Win	100	8 h 37 m	Show
7* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -6 The Key: The Atlanta Hawks shot a measly 37.8% in Game 1 against the Washington Wizards and still had a chance to win in the end. They shoot 46.3% as a team and 47.0% at home, so that was clearly a down game for them offensively. I expect them to make those open shots tonight in a crucial Game 2. I also expect the Wizards to suffer a letdown after taking Game 1 to gain home-court advantage in this series. The Wizards aren't at full strength right now, either, as stud guards John Wall and Bradley Beal are both banged up. Atlanta is 38-7 at home this season, winning by 8.1 points per game. The Hawks are 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 points or more this season. Take Atlanta.
05-04-15	Chicago Bulls +4.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers	Top	99-92	Win	100	7 h 58 m	Show
7* Bulls/Cavaliers Game 1 HEAVY HITTER on Chicago Bulls +5 The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to have to deal with being without Kevin Love for the rest of the postseason. They clearly aren't as strong of a team without him. I believe they are extremely vulnerable now, and that will show in Game 1 against the Chicago Bulls. Cleveland hasn't played since April 26th and it will be rusty, while Chicago played last on April 30th, getting just about the perfect amount of rest in between series. Chicago is 9-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams that score 103+ points/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Cleveland. Take Chicago.
05-03-15	Memphis Grizzlies +10 v. Golden State Warriors		86-101	Loss	-107	4 h 33 m	Show
6* Grizzlies/Warriors Game 1 CA$H COW on Memphis +10 The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies get the nod Sunday as double-digit underdogs to the Golden State Warriors in Game 1. I really believe the Warriors are overvalued because they had the best record in the NBA this season, and they are the #1 seed. It's not easy to beat anyone in the playoffs by double-digits, and the Grizzlies know they need to steal Game 1 if they want to have a chance in this series. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. That's an 18-0 system backing the Grizzlies. Take Memphis.
05-02-15	San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5	Top	109-111	Loss	-104	6 h 11 m	Show
7* Spurs/Clippers Game 7 HEAVY HITTER on Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers have outplayed the Spurs in this series. They barely lost Game 2 and Game 5 and could have easily won both had the ball bounced their way. I love the resiliency they've shown in Game 4 and Game 6 victories with their backs against the wall on the road. I look for them to take care of business at home in Game 7 and finish off the defending champs. Take Los Angeles.
05-01-15	Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets	Top	111-87	Win	100	15 h 13 m	Show
7* Hawks/Nets Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta -3.5 The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have let the Nets hang around in this series. After a huge Game 5 victory, I have not doubt they close them out in Game 6 with a win and cover. They dominated from start to finish in Game 5 and they'll do the same in Game 6. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996. Take the Hawks Friday.
04-30-15	Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks	Top	120-66	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
7* Bulls/Bucks Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Chicago -3.5 The Key: After losing the last two games of this series narrowly, I look for the Chicago Bulls to put away the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 6. They are the superior team and have experience in these situations, and I look for that experience to come in handy here. Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season. The Bucks are 0-8 ATS off a road win against a division rival over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Milwaukee. Take Chicago.
04-29-15	Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200.5	Top	97-107	Loss	-106	7 h 56 m	Show
7* Nets/Hawks Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 200.5 The Key: Prior to the Nets' 120-115 (OT) win over the Hawks in Game 4, this was a very low scoring series. They had combined for 191 points in Game 1, 187 in Game 2 and 174 in Game 3. I look for Game 5 to be played more like the first three games rather than Game 4 with what's at stake with this series tied 2-2. There's no doubt both teams will be laying it on the line defensively to get a win. Brooklyn is 12-2 UNDER in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-5 in Nets last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 conference quarterfinal games. Take the UNDER.
04-28-15	Dallas Mavericks +7 v. Houston Rockets	Top	94-103	Loss	-101	8 h 48 m	Show
7* Mavericks/Rockets Game 5 HEAVY HITTER on Dallas +7 The Key: The Dallas Mavericks showed a lot of heart in winning Game 4 to extend this series after falling behind 3-0. They aren't about to give in now. Just like the Bucks did last night against the Bulls in winning two straight following a 3-0 deficit, I look for the Mavericks to give the Rockets a run for their money in Game 5 and likely pull off the upset. They were at least competitive in their two trips to Houston, losing by 10 and 12 points. They shot 44.4% in Game 1 and 37.1% in Game 2, and I just cannot see them shooting that poorly again. They shot 52.3% in Game 3 and 54.3% in Game 4, so they have clearly figured something out against this Houston defense. Plays on poor defensive road teams that allow 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games are 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996. Take Dallas.
04-27-15	Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets +5	Top	115-120	Win	100	7 h 35 m	Show
7* Hawks/Nets Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Brooklyn +5 The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have shown that they can play with the Atlanta Hawks, who just aren't the same team that had the best record in the East during the regular season. The Nets have held the Hawks to 92.7 points per game on 39.0 percent shooting through the first three games of this series. After losing by single-digits in the first two games, they got a huge Game 3 victory, and I look for them to carry that momentum into this Game 4 tonight. Atlanta is 1-9 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Hawks are 1-11 ATS off two straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season. The Nets have won 8 of their last 10 home games. Take Brooklyn.
04-26-15	Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 220.5	Top	109-121	Loss	-110	11 h 13 m	Show
7* Rockets/Mavericks Sunday Night "Bailout" on UNDER 220.5 The Key: This number has been inflated due to one of the highest-scoring games in postseason history in Game 3 between the Mavs and Rockets. They combined for 258 points in regulation in Game 3, which was a complete aberration based on what these teams have done lately when up against each other. The UNDER is actually 5-2 in the last seven meetings. They have combined for 211 or fewer points in five of those seven contests. The total for Game 1 was 212.5, so the fact that this total in Game 4 is 220.5 shows you that there's value with the under. Take the UNDER.
04-25-15	Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets +3	Top	83-91	Win	100	5 h 12 m	Show
7* NBA Eastern Conference HEAVY HITTER on Brooklyn Nets +3 The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have hung right with the Atlanta Hawks in the first two games of this series, losing by 7 and 5 points. Now, they return home where I expect them to get back in the series with a Game 3 victory. Atlanta is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Hawks are 13-30 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 1-10 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season. The Nets are 14-5 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons. Take Brooklyn.
04-24-15	Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks -1	Top	130-128	Loss	-100	10 h 51 m	Show
7* Rockets/Mavericks Western Conference HEAVY HITTER on Dallas -1 The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are in a must-win situation tonight after falling behind 0-2 in this series. I look for them to take care of business at home in Game 3 and to get right back into this series. Home-court advantage has been huge in this Texas rivalry as the home team is now 5-1 straight up & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Mavericks are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Dallas. Take Dallas.
04-23-15	Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 187	Top	113-106	Loss	-115	10 h 42 m	Show
7* Thursday NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 187 The Key: Games in the NBA playoffs tend to get more lower scoring as they go on. That has been the case in this series as these teams scored 194 combined points in Game 1, but just 173 in Game 2. Given the recent history of this series, I like for this game to stay well UNDER the 187-point total in Game 3. The Bulls and Bucks have combined for 173, 194, 186, 158, 182 and 181 points in their last six meetings with the UNDER going 5-1. That's an average of 179.0 combined points. That means we're getting roughly 8 points of value on this UNDER based on recent history, which is a lot. Chicago is 14-3 UNDER following two consecutive home wins. The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take the UNDER.
04-22-15	Brooklyn Nets +9.5 v. Atlanta Hawks	Top	91-96	Win	100	6 h 24 m	Show
7* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 The Key: This line is inflated because it's a #1 seed vs. a #8 seed. The same was true in the Western Conference as the Pelicans covered Game 1 and Game 2 despite losing straight up. I believe the same is the case in the East here after the Nets covered in Game 1 in a 7-point loss as 11-point underdogs. I just like the way that Brooklyn has played down the stretch. It won 13 of its final 19 games of the regular season just to get in the playoffs. It still has a plethora of talent with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez & Joe Johnson leading the way. Lopez has been especially dominant. He should have a big game against an injury-riddled Atlanta front line that is seeing both Paul Millsap and Al Horford struggle playing through injuries. Brooklyn has stepped up its game against good competition, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 against teams winning 60% of their games or better. The Hawks are 1-9 ATS after recording 10 or more steals in two straight games, and 13-29 ATS in their last 42 on two days' rest. Take Brooklyn.
04-21-15	Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 192.5	Top	117-106	Loss	-105	8 h 14 m	Show
7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 192.5 The Key: The books have once again set the number too high in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1. The UNDER is 3-1 in the four meetings between these teams despite two of those games going to overtime. They have combined for 187, 188 and 179 (Game 1) points in the three unders. They were only at 164 combined points before overtime in Game 1. While I expect this game to be a little higher scoring in regulation, I still believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER 192.5. Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games after playing two more more consecutive road games this season. The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days' rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto. Take the UNDER.
04-20-15	New Orleans Pelicans +12.5 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	87-97	Win	100	11 h 34 m	Show
7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 2 HEAVY HITTER on New Orleans +12.5 The Key: I cashed in the Pelicans +12 in Game 1 in a 7-point loss to the Warriors. I'll be backing them again in Game 2 as they'll be motivated to steal a win and even up this series heading back to New Orleans. I just really like the way this team is playing now that they are finally healthy, which hasn't been the case until here recently. They have won 8 of their last 12 games overall, including wins over the Spurs and Warriors. Three of their four losses during this stretch have come by single-digits, too. Golden State is having a hard time living up to the expectations it has created for itself from the oddsmakers. It is now 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. The Pelicans are 26-13 (67%) ATS as underdogs this season. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a victory. Take New Orleans.
04-19-15	San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +1	Top	92-107	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
7* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday HEAVY HITTER on Los Angeles +1 They Key: The Clippers might be the most underrated team heading into the playoffs. They are underdogs at home to the Spurs when they shouldn't be tonight. They have gone 14-1 in their last 15 games overall and are obviously coming in with a ton of confidence because of it. San Antonio is rested, but that's not necessarily a good thing considering it is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season. Also, plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996. Take Los Angeles.
04-18-15	New Orleans Pelicans +12 v. Golden State Warriors	Top	99-106	Win	100	5 h 26 m	Show
7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 1 HEAVY HITTER on New Orleans +12 The Key: The most amazing part about the New Orleans Pelicans making the playoffs is that they have not been healthy all year. They are finally at full strength heading into the playoffs, which helped them to an 8-3 finish down the stretch where they played their best basketball of the season. That includes wins over both the Warriors and Spurs in their final six games. They can play with the Warriors when healthy, and they will prove that in Game 1 tonight. Golden State is the most overvalued team entering the playoffs, and that is reflected in this ridiculous 12-point spread. New Orleans is 25-13 ATS as an underdog this season. Golden State is 1-8 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games this season. Take New Orleans.
04-15-15	Indiana Pacers +1 v. Memphis Grizzlies	Top	83-95	Loss	-105	9 h 19 m	Show
7* Pacers/Grizzlies ESPN HEAVY HITTER on Indiana +1 The Key: The Indiana Pacers need to win and they're in the playoffs. A loss and a Brooklyn win over Orlando would knock them out. They have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Pacers are 6-0 in their last six games overall with four of their wins coming by 12 points or more. The Grizzlies looked like a lock for the No. 2 seed a month ago, but injuries and poor play have them in a bad spot and likely to miss a first round series at home. They have lost six of their last 10 games overall. Three starters in Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen are all hurt, and at least two of them aren't expected to play tonight. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Grizzlies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take Indiana.
04-14-15	Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -7		95-99	Loss	-105	8 h 37 m	Show
6* Wizards/Pacers Eastern Conference CA$H COW on Indiana -7 The Key: If Indiana wins out, it will be in the playoffs. That is motivation enough for the Pacers to crush the Wizards tonight. Couple that with the fact that Washington is locked into the No. 5 seed with nothing to play for, and it's pretty easy to see how this game is going to play out. The Pacers have battled their way into this position by going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. That includes a 19-point win over Charlotte, a 23-point win over Miami, a 16-point win over New York, a 12-point win over Oklahoma City, and a 4-point win at Detroit. This team is gaining a lot of steam and will be a dangerous No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the postseason, especially with a healthy Paul George back in the lineup. Indiana is 9-1 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Wizards are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games. Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Take Indiana.
04-13-15	Denver Nuggets +16 v. Los Angeles Clippers	Top	103-110	Win	100	10 h 60 m	Show
7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +16 The Key: The Denver Nuggets are finishing out their season pretty solidly. They have won two of their last three with their only loss coming by a final of 144-143 to the Dallas Mavericks in double-overtime. They beat the Lakers by 18 and the Kings by 11. They will be out for revenge from a 92-107 home loss to the Clippers on April 4th just over a week ago. The Clippers do have more to play for right now, but they're also overvalued because of it. Each of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, including five by 12 points or fewer. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season. Denver is 10-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three years. The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Take Denver.
04-12-15	Phoenix Suns +15.5 v. San Antonio Spurs		91-107	Loss	-100	7 h 12 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Phoenix Suns +15.5 The Key: The San Antonio Spurs have a lot to play for as they have the No. 2 seed within their grasp. There's no question they will show up tonight, but asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover this 15.5-point spread is asking too much. The Spurs are coming off back-to-back wins over the Rockets, which has given them home-court advantage in the first round if the season were to end today. It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after those two big wins. Plus, the Phoenix Suns will be the No. 9 or No. 10 seed in the West for the second consecutive season. They will want to take their frustration out on the defending champs, which is why they will show up today. Phoenix is 50-28 ATS in road games over the last two seasons. The Suns are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Take Phoenix Sunday.
04-11-15	Toronto Raptors +3.5 v. Miami Heat	Top	107-104	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
7* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Toronto Raptors +3.5 The Key: The Toronto Raptors are fighting for the No. 3 seed in the East and home-court advantage in the first round. They are currently tied with the Chicago Bulls for that spot. There's no question that the Raptors are going to show up tonight. Yes, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Orlando 105-103 on the road yesterday, but this isn't your normal tough back-to-back situation. It's a short plane ride down to Miami. I question the Heat's motivation because they are all but eliminated from the playoffs after losing to Chicago at home on Thursday. They now trail No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn by two games with only three games to play, which is basically an insurmountable comeback. Kyle Lowry is back healthy and expected to play tonight for the Raptors, indicating that they are All In here down the stretch. The Heat have played their way out of the playoffs by going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and they aren't about to show up now. Take Toronto.
04-10-15	San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets UNDER 206	Top	104-103	Loss	-105	7 h 8 m	Show
7* Spurs/Rockets Western Conference HEAVY HITTER on UNDER 206 The Key: The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will meet up for the second time in three days. They combined for 208 points on Wednesday, and I believe their familiarity with one another will lead to a much lower-scoring affair Friday. After all, these teams haven't scored very many points in recent meetings in Houston. They have combined for 179, 187, 191 and 202 points their last four meetings in Houston with all four games going UNDER the total. They have averaged roughly 190 combined points per game in those four contests. When you compare that to tonight's total set of 206, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. Take the UNDER.
04-10-15	Boston Celtics +6.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers		99-90	Win	100	7 h 37 m	Show
6* NBA Eastern Conference CA$H COW on Boston Celtics +6.5 The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers have absolutely nothing to play for. They clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. I don't expect them to show up at all tonight as they take on a Boston Celtics team with everything to play for right now. The Celtics are clinging on to one of the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference, just one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana, which owns the tiebreaker over both Boston and Brooklyn. This pressure has only brought out the best in the Celtics, who have won 13 of their last 20 games while going 4-1 in their last five. They are not only winning, they are dominating as three of their last four wins have come by double-digits. Lebron James is expected to sit out to rest tonight, leaving the Cavaliers short-handed, and showing that they could care less if they win this game or not. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after giving up 100 points or more in two straight games. Take Boston.
04-09-15	Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat UNDER 191.5	Top	89-78	Win	100	9 h 16 m	Show
7* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 191.5 The Key: The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, while the Miami Heat are fighting just to stay alive for a playoff spot. The No. 4 seed Bulls are one game ahead of No. 5 Washington, while the No. 9 Heat are one game behind both No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn. Both teams will be motivated, which will lead to max effort on defense. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series as the Heat and Bulls have not topped 183 combined points in any of the four games, and that 183-point performance came in overtime. Not counting overtime, the Bulls & Heat have averaged 173.0 points in those four meetings. That gives us 18.5 points of value here on the UNDER. Chicago is 9-1 UNDER as a road dog of 6 points or fewer this year. Take the UNDER.
04-08-15	New Orleans Pelicans +5 v. Memphis Grizzlies		74-110	Loss	-108	9 h 53 m	Show
6* NBA Western Conference CA$H COW on New Orleans Pelicans +5 The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today, but there is still plenty of work left to do. The Pelicans are 5-1 in their last six games overall to take a half-game lead on the Thunder for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. They just beat the Warriors last night, and I look for them to upset the Grizzlies tonight as well. Memphis is not playing well, going 2-4 in its last six games with all four losses coming by 9 points or more, and three of those coming at home. Zach Randolph and Jeff Green are questionable to play tonight, and Tony Allen is out with a hamstring injury. These injuries are really starting to take their toll on the Grizzlies, who have no business even being favored tonight in their current state. The Pelicans are 24-11 ATS as an underdog this year. New Orleans is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 when playing on no rest. Memphis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take New Orleans.
04-07-15	Phoenix Suns +7.5 v. Atlanta Hawks		69-96	Loss	-102	7 h 5 m	Show
6* NBA Situational SLAM DUNK on Phoenix Suns +7.5 The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for right now. They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the East, so don't expect them to show up with any consistency the rest of the way. The Phoenix Suns still have a fighting chance of making the playoffs. They are three games back of the reeling Oklahoma City Thunder, who have lost three straight and five of six to give the Suns and Pelicans a chance. Given the mental state of both these teams, there's no question there is value in backing the Suns as 7.5-point road underdogs here. The Suns are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 vs. Eastern Conference. The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. Atlanta is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games when playing on two days' rest. Take Phoenix.
04-06-15	Wisconsin -1 v. Duke	Top	63-68	Loss	-105	10 h 24 m	Show
7* Duke/Wisconsin Championship HEAVY HITTER on Wisconsin -1 The Key: Wisconsin has had the much tougher path to reach the Championship Game. It has beaten North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky in its last three games. Duke, on the other hand, has had a pretty easy path to get here. It has faced Utah, Gonzaga and Michigan State in its last three contests. I love the Badgers' ability to space the floor, their elite rebounding, and their carefulness as they simply do not turn the ball over. Those three factors will be big in them beating the Blue Devils in the Championship Game, especially the rebounding. Wisconsin is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 against the ACC. Yes, it lost to Duke earlier this season, but it is 6-0 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years. It is also 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or fewer over the past two seasons. Take Wisconsin.
04-05-15	Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 190.5		101-95	Loss	-110	9 h 28 m	Show
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Jazz/Kings UNDER 190.5 The Key: The Utah Jazz have been the best defensive team in the second half of the season, period. The Jazz are 15-8 since center Rudy Gobert became the starter. They have done it with defense, limiting 17 of their last 20 opponents to 92 or fewer points. They have held their last four foes to 87, 84, 84, and 89 points. That's no small feat considering they have played Phoenix, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City during this stretch. Utah is 23-3 UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season. The UNDER is 17-7 in Jazz last 24 games overall. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Kings last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER.

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