Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland +6.5

The Key: It has been a very profitable move to back the losing Game 1 team in Game 2 throughout the NBA playoffs for years.  In fact, the Game 1 loser is 204-159 ATS since 1991 in Game 2.  I love the Cavaliers here catching 6.5 points.  They had the Warriors on the brink with a lead late, but the Warriors' bench exploded in the 4th quarter and they essentially won without Curry or Thompson needing a big game.  While some will look at that as the Warriors will be even better if Curry and Thompson perform, I look at is as the Warriors will never get another game like that from their bench again.  The Cavs' bench was nearly non-existent, but after getting their feet wet, I look for a lot more production from them in Game 2 so James, Irving and Love don't have to completely carry the load again.  Take Cleveland in a Game 2 that they will likely win outright.

7* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +6

The Key: Cleveland is 12-2 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days over the past 3 seasons.  This team has proven it plays its best on rest, and that has been the case this postseason as well.  The Cavs covered the 8-point spread in Game 1 against the Hawks with an 11-point victory after sweeping the Pistons.  They also throttled the Raptors by 31 as 11-point favorites in Game 1 after sweeping the Hawks.  They will be their best version of themselves in Game 1 tonight against the Warriors, especially with revenge in mind from last year's NBA Finals.  The Warriors could be in a tough spot mentally here in Game 1 after what they accomplished in winning the final three games to beat the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.  They are ripe for the upset here.  Take Cleveland.

7* Thunder/Warriors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 219

The Key: The Thunder and Warriors have now squared off six straight times.  It's obvious that they are familiar with one another now, and that will lead to a low-scoring battle in Game 7 that favors the defenses with everything at stake.  These teams combined for 209 points in Game 6, and I look for a similar output tonight in Golden State.  The Warriors have been going with a bigger lineup to counter the Thunder, which also favors the UNDER.  The Under is 8-3 in Thunder last 11 Conference Finals games.  The Under is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Under is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 Conference Finals games.  The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 221

The Key: The Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder are obviously extremely familiar with one another as they've played five games in this series already.  That clearly favors the defenses and will lead to a low-scoring affair in Game 6.  The Warriors made an adjustment and decided to go bigger for longer stretches in Game 5, and it worked, so look for them to go big again.  That also favors the defenses as the Thunder prefer to play big anyways.  OKC is 13-3 UNDER after two straight games where it made 9 or more 3-point shots.  Golden State is 17-5 UNDER off two straight games where it made 85% or more of their free throws this season.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 road games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cavs/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -6

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers roll into Game 6 brimming with confidence after their 38-point statement victory over the Raptors in Game 5.  The Raptors come in deflated knowing that they really stand no chance of winning this series.  The Cavs want to prove that they can win on the road in Game 6 here tonight and I believe they roll to victory again.  They also do not want to have this series go to 7 games as they can take advantage of some extra rest if they win tonight.  I was mostly impressed with the Cavs' 57-38 rebounding edge in Game 5 where they held the Raptors to only 5 offensive rebounds.  Well, Toronto is 1-10 ATS off a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.  The Raptors are also 0-8 ATS after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game over the last 2 years.  Take Cleveland.

7* Thunder/Warriors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 220.5

The Key: The UNDER is 3-1 through the first four games of this series, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough tonight in setting this total above 220 points once again.  They combined for 210 points in Game 1, 209 in Game 2 and 212 points in Game 4.  I expect a similar result tonight here in Game 5 as these teams are now extremely familiar with one another, which only favors the defenses even more as this series goes on.  OKC is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 9-plus points per game this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last 4 road games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Thunder's last 9 conference finals games.  The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Warriors last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

7* Raptors/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -10.5

The Key: Home-court advantage has been huge all season long when the Raptors and Cavaliers have gotten together.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in seven meetings between Cleveland and Toronto dating back to the regular season.  The Cavs have won their 3 home meetings with the Raptors by an average of 24 points per game.  The Cavs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games overall.  The Raptors have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  These three trends equate to a 16-0 angle backing the Cavaliers in Game 5 here tonight.  Take Cleveland.

7* Warriors/Thunder Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State ML -110

The Key: This is essentially the series in my opinion.  Golden State must win to tie the series at 2-2 and regain home-court advantage, or this series is overall.  With their backs against the wall, look for the Warriors to come out with one of their best games of the season.  After all, they are 12-0 in games following a loss this season, and I expect them to be 13-0 in this situation after tonight.  It was critical that Draymond Green was not suspended, and he'll have a big bounce-back performance tonight to lead the way alongside Steph Curry.  Take Golden State.

7* Cavs/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +6.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 39-11 at home this season, and they rolled to a 15-point victory over the Cavaliers in Game 3 at home on Saturday.  They are now 3-0 at home against the Cavaliers this season, yet they are 6.5-point dogs in Game 4.  Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams in recent meetings to say the least.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  That trends continues here tonight.  Take Toronto.

7* Warriors/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 220.5

The Key: The first two games of this series have stayed well UNDER the posted total, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough in Game 3 tonight.  They combined for 210 points in Game 1 and 209 points in Game 2.  The total for Game 3 has been set at 220.5, and I have a hard time seeing them combining for at least 210 points again, let alone 220.5.  Golden State is 21-10 UNDER in all playoff games over the last two seasons.  OKC is 12-3 UNDER off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 conference finals games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 conference finals games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cavs/Raptors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 198.5

The Key: I certainly like backing the UNDER in playoff series as they get deeper into the series.  That's because teams become more familiar with each other, which favors the defenses.  The Raptors and Cavs combined for 199 points in Game 1 and then 197 in Game 2.  I look for that trend to continue and for Game 3 to be the lowest-scoring contest yet.  The UNDER is 48-23 in Cavaliers last 71 vs. Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER.

7* Raptors/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +13

The Key: The Toronto Raptors were clearly overmatched in Game 1 against Cleveland.  But they certainly had an excuse as they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the Miami Heat, which concluded on Sunday.  They had to play the Cavs on Tuesday and had little time to prepare.  But look for them to make some adjustments in Game 2 now that they've seen the Cavs first-hand.  Dwayne Casey has made great adjustments all playoffs, and that is supported by the fact that the Raptors are 6-0 straight up following a loss this postseason.  Look for them to give the Cavs a run for their money here.  Cleveland is 1-9 ATS when covering the spread in at least 5 of its last 7 games this season.  Take Toronto.

7* Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors -8.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors aren't about to fall behind the Thunder 2-0.  They had an uncharacteristically bad second half in Game 1 where they were outscored by 19 points.  They started playing two much one-on-one, and it cost them.  Look for the Warriors to get back to playing team basketball for four quarters like they did in the first half to build a double-digit lead.  I fully expect the Warriors to cruise to a double-digit victory in Game 2 here tonight thanks to the adjustments from Steve Kerr.  The Warriors haven't lost two straight games all season.  They are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games when revenging a loss.  Take Golden State.

7* Raptors/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -11

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers have everything working in their favor heading into Game 1 Tuesday.  They have had 9 days off following back-to-back sweeps of the Pistons and Hawks.  Now they face a Raptors team that just played a grueling Game 7 against the Miami Heat on Sunday and has had only one day off to rest.  The Cavaliers throttled the Raptors by 22 in their only home meeting this season.  The Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and stand little chance of keeping Game 1 competitive given the situation.  They are also without Jonas Valanciunas, who is arguably their most important player.  Take Cleveland.

7* Thunder/Warriors Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -7.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors have owned the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, and I expect that to continue in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.  The Warriors are 3-0 against the Thunder this season, winning by an average of 11.5 points per game in their two home meetings.  The beat the Rockets by 26 in Game 1 at home and the Blazers by 12 in Game 1 at home.  Considering the Warriors are 45-2 at home and winning by 14.6 points per game this season, getting them as only 7.5-point favorites is a reasonable discount.  The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.  Take Golden State.

7* Heat/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +4.5

The Key: The Miami Heat are a veteran bunch with Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson among others.  They have played their fair share of Game 7's before, and they certainly won't crumble under the pressure.  I don't believe the same can be said for the Raptors, who are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 playoff games and just seem to fall short of expectations every year in the postseason.  The Heat already came back from a 3-2 deficit to beat the Hornets last series, and I believe they'll pull off the same feat here against the Raptors after dominating from start to finish in Game 6.  Take Miami.

7* Raptors/Heat NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami -4

The Key: The Miami Heat are in must-win mode here in Game 6 to avoid elimination.  They were in the same predicament last series against the Hornets, down 3-2 needing to win their final two games, and that's precisely what they did.  They certainly have shown they have the intestinal fortitude to pull it off, and I look for them to win Game 6 and cover this small 4-point spread in the process.  The Heat have been great at home all season with a 32-15 record.  They are also a superb 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Take Miami.

7* Spurs/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: This series continues to get lower-scoring as the series progresses and the Spurs and Thunder get more familiar with one another.  We've seen 3 of the last 4 games finish with 196 or fewer combined points, including a series-low 186 points in Game 5.  I look for a similar total in Game 6 tonight as this will be yet another defensive battle.  San Antonio is 27-12 UNDER off an ATS loss this season.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Spurs last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Thunder last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Take the UNDER.

7* Blazers/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Portland +13

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers could easily be up 3-1 in this series instead of down 3-1.  They blew a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter of Game 2, won Game 3 by 12, and led most of the way in Game 4 before losing in overtime behind heroics from Steph Curry.  But after that Game 4 performance from Curry, the Warriors are way overvalued here heading into Game 5.  They will have a very hard time putting away the Blazers by 13-plus points, especially since I expect Curry to play more limited minutes here.  The only reason he played 36 minutes in Game 4 when he was supposed to play 25 was because Shaun Livingston got ejected in the 1st half.  Steve Kerr will be much more cautious with Curry tonight.  I also like the mindset of the Blazers and Damian Lillard, who has stated that the Blazers aren't going to just lay down now.  Portland is 8-1 ATS after playing 4 consecutive games as a dog this season.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season.  Bets on any team after leading their last 2 games by 10-plus points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more in 3 straight games are 52-21 ATS since 1996.  Take Portland.

7* Thunder/Spurs *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: After combined scores of 195 and 196 in Games 2 and 3, the Spurs and Thunder combined for 208 points in Game 4.  But the Thunder shot 50.6% in that contest and the Spurs 47.1%, and that won't happen again in Game 5.  The series is pretty much on the line in this game tonight, so look for the defensive intensity to be very high.  Also, these teams are now so familiar with each other that scoring will be at a premium.  The Spurs only give up 90.4 points per game at home this year.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Thunder's last 15 games off two straight games where they made 9 or more 3-point shots.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* Raptors/Heat Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -5

The Key: Miami is essentially in a must-win situation here in Game 4 to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series.  The Heat got a huge break when arguably Toronto's most important player in Jonas Valanciunas got injured in Game 3 and will likely miss the rest of the postseason.  The Raptors don't have an inside presence to replace Valanciunas' scoring and he will be missed badly.  This game will be played small ball style, and the Heat have proven they can play small and be very effective.  Miami is 16-7 ATS after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season.  The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Take Miami.

7* Spurs/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 198.5

The Key: The last two games in this series have gone UNDER 198.5 points.  The Spurs and Thunder combined for 195 points in Game 2 and 196 points in Game 3.  Now that they are even more familiar with one another, I look for Game 4 to actually be the lowest-scoring game of this series yet.  Oklahoma City is 8-0 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Spurs last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in OKC, and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Raptors/Heat Game 3 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Heat and Raptors have somehow managed to go to overtime in three straight games dating back to the regular season.  The first two games of this series were extremely low-scoring in regulation.  They combined for 180 points at the end of regulation in Game 1, and 172 points at the end of regulation in Game 2.  I look for Game 3 to take a similar pattern and to stay well UNDER the posted total of 187.5, obviously assuming they don't go to OT for a 4th consecutive time.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last six road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last seven games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Spurs/Thunder Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio -2

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs won Game 1 by 32 points before getting upset 98-97 in Game 2 thanks to some controversy for the refs.  I fully expect the Spurs to take Game 3 and regain home-court advantage in this series.  They are clearly the better team and have the Thunder figured out.  The Spurs are 9-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite of 7 or more over the last 2 seasons.  San Antonio is 9-1 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  Take San Antonio.

7* Heat/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -4.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors lost Game 1 in overtime at home and now are looking at this Game 2 against the Miami Heat as a must-win.  3-point shooting was their demise in Game 1 as they shot 23.8% while the Heat shot a scoring 72.7%.  That's unlikely to happen again.  After all, the Raptors were 3-0 in their final three meetings with the Heat in the regular season, outscoring them by a whopping 14.0 points per game in the process.  So I still believe this to be a great matchup for them, and I think that will show in Game 2 as they want this one more.  The Heat are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who outscore the opposition by 3 or more points per game.  Take Toronto.

7* Hawks/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks gave the Cleveland Cavaliers all they could handle in Game 1.  They even had the lead in that game down the stretch but couldn't close the deal despite shooting under 38% from the field for the game.  After an off shooting night, look for the Hawks to be more on target in Game 2.  They will take this game down to the wire and cover the 7.5 tonight.  Atlanta is 16-6 ATS revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  Cleveland is 10-19 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.  Take Atlanta.

7* Blazers/Warriors Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland +10

The Key: I expect the Portland Trail Blazers to rebound nicely following their 12-point loss in Game 1 to the Warriors. They were at a serious disadvantage in Game 1 because they were playing on just 1.5 days of rest, while the Warriors had four days off in between games.  But now it's much more even and the Blazers will stay within single-digits of the Warriors as a result in Game 2.  To only lost by 12 points despite shooting only 40.2% from the floor is actually quite an accomplishment.  Look for them to be more on target in Game 2 and to get off to a much better start than they did in Game 1.  The Blazers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by more than 10 points.  Take Portland.

7* Thunder/Spurs Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City +8

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder will show a lot more fight in Game 2 knowing that they do not want to go down 0-2 in this series if they want to win it.  The Spurs couldn't miss in Game 1 as they shot over 60% from the field behind a combined 34-of-43 shooting from the trio of LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green.  These teams actually split the regular season series 2-2 with the Thunder not losing by more than 8 points in any of the four games, so their 32-point loss in Game 1 certainly came out of nowhere.  I look for the Thunder to make this game much more competitive and to have a chance to win in the end thanks to some key adjustments from head coach Billy Donovan.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Blazers/Warriors Game 1 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 208.5

The Key: With no Steph Curry, the Golden State Warriors have had to win with defense in the playoffs up to this point.  They held the high-octane Houston Rockets to an average of only 91.2 points per game last series.  Now they're going to make it tough on the Blazers in this series as well, starting with Game 1.  It's also worth noting the Blazers held the Clippers to 98 or fewer points in 3 of their 6 games.  This will certainly be a defensive battle today folks.  Bets on the UNDER on home teams when the total 200 or more, an excellent offensive team that averages at least 102 points per game against a bad defensive team that gives up at least 102 points per game, after scorign 55 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games are 74-33 over the last 5 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

 7* Thunder/Spurs Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City +7

The Key:  The Thunder have played the Spurs tough this season. The season series is 2-2 with the Thunder only lost once by more than this 7-point margin.  I think they'll give the Spurs a run today and stay within this 7-point spread in Game 1.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Raptors/Pacers *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: When you look at how this series has played out, there's a lot to like about the UNDER in Game 6 tonight.  The UNDER went 4-0 in their first four games before going over the total in Game 5.  They have combined for 190 or fewer points in 4 of the 5 games thus far.  They have averaged only 189 combined points per game in this series, so there's clearly value with the UNDER in Game 6.  Indiana is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  Indiana is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game this season.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 road games.  Take this combined 24-2 angle backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* Hawks/Celtics Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston +2

The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the most resilient teams in the NBA.  They got blown out on the road in Game 5, but I have no doubt they'll show tremendous character and find a way to win Game 6 at home.  After all, the home team is 5-0 in this series.  The Hawks haven't won a playoff series against the Celtics since 1958.  Atlanta has also dropped 10 consecutive postseason games in Boston dating back to 1988.  It has gone 2-27 in its last 29 trips to Boston in the playoffs.  Atlanta is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 playoff road games, and 10-24 ATS in its last 34 first round playoff road games.  Boston is 15-5 ATS revenging a road loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games overall.  Take Boston.

7* Blazers/Clippers Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: Doc Rivers is one of the few coaches who could get his team to respond following the loss of two stars like Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.  He's going to play the 'everyone is counting you out' card to his players, and I look for them to respond in a big way at home tonight.  The Clippers actually showed off their depth at the end of the regular season as they kept winning despite resting their starters.  ChrisPaul controls the Clippers' offense like few others in the NBA. However, they installed a motion offense for when Paul wasn't on the floor this season, freeing up Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers while letting anyone else get the ball moving.  ''We were very effective at it,'' Doc Rivers said. ''Thank God we did that because now playing without him we'll be in motion for 48 minutes.''  Bets on home underdogs off an upset loss as a road favorite, good team winning between 60% and 75% of their games on the season are 23-5 ATS since 1996.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Celtics/Hawks Game 5 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 198

The Key: The Boston Celtics have shot 36.3% and 31.8% in their first two games in Atlanta in this series.  The Hawks have only been slightly better, shooting 40.7% and 39.0%, respectively.  Look for a very low-scoring contest in Game 5 similar to Game 2 when these teams only combined for 161 points.  Now very familiar with one another, this is sure to be a defensive battle.  Atlanta is 11-2 UNDER in home playoff games over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Celtics last 12 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blazers/Clippers UNDER 205.5

The Key: After combining for 210 points in Game 1, the last two games of this series have been extremely low scoring as these teams have become more familiar with one another, which has clearly favored the defenses.  They combined for 183 points in Game 2 and 184 points in Game 3.  Now the total is set at 205.5 for Game 4, which is more than 20 points more than they combined for the past two games.  This is about as easy as it gets ladies and gents as this game will stay well UNDER the posted total as well.  Five of the last seven meetings have seen 193 or fewer combined points also.  The Clippers are 14-6 UNDER revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Los Angeles is 9-0 UNDER versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The Clippers are 10-1 UNDER versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Clippers last 52 games following a straight up loss.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cavs/Pistons Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit +6.5

The Key: It should be a crime that the Pistons are down 0-3 in this series.  They have had their chances in every game, but have ultimately come up short in the 4th quarter each time.  This is far from the blowout of a series that this 3-0 deficit would indicate.  I look for the Pistons to play with some pride and avoid the sweep today and win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Detroit is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.  Cleveland is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Detroit Sunday.

7* Raptors/Pacers Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +1.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Indiana Pacers tonight as they know they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 to the Raptors if they want to win this series.  Paul George was disappointed in his team's effort in Game 3, and look for him to now take it upon himself to lead this team to victory in Game 4.  The Pacers are a very good home team as they went 26-15 in Indiana during the regular season.  Toronto is 4-14 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  Indiana is 14-4 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.  Take Indiana.

7* Cavs/Pistons Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit +5

The Key: The Detroit Pistons have largely outplayed the Cleveland Cavaliers for the majority of this series, but they find themselves in an 0-2 hole.  They held the halftime lead in Game 1 and led by 5 in the 3rd quarter of Game 2, but lost both contests.  The Cavs made 20 3-pointers in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again.  Now the Pistons get to play at home in Game 3 and will get a victory to get back in this series.  The Pistons went 26-15 SU & 24-15-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points per game.  Cleveland is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after scoring 100 points or more in 5 straight games.  The Pistons are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.  Take Detroit.

7* Thunder/Mavs Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -8.5

The Key: After getting upset in Game 2 and losing home-court advantage, look for the Oklahoma City Thunder to gain back that home court in a big way tonight.  They could not have played worse in Game 2, particularly Kevin Durant, who went 7 for 33.  His 26 misses shots were tied with Michael Jordan for the most ever in a playoff game.  He and his teammates have been seeing all of the negative headlines in the media, and that's only going to fuel their fire heading into Game 3.  This one will be over after the first quarter folks as the supremely talented Thunder play up to their potential off that loss.  The Thunder have won 3 of their last 5 meetings with the Mavs by 13 or more points.  They have outscored the Mavs by a total of 72 points over those 5 games, or by an average of 14.4 points per game. Take Oklahoma City.

7* Pistons/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit +10.5

The Key: The Detroit Pistons have played the Cleveland Cavaliers extremely tough this season.  After winning the season series 3-1, they held their own in Game 1 while only losing by 5 points.  Now they are a double-digit underdog once again when they shouldn't be, and we'll take advantage.  Cleveland is 26-54-1 ATS in its last 81 games vs. division opponents.  The Cavs are also 1-11 ATS this season against teams who average 7 or less steals per game.  Take Detroit.

7* Grizzlies/Spurs Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +18

The Key: Without question, Game 1 of Spurs/Grizzlies was not pretty for Memphis.  They lost 106-74 and looked like they never stood a chance.  However, I have little doubt they'll put forth a much better effort in Game 2, and it will be enough to stay within this massive 18-point spread.  We saw the short-handed Mavs pull the upset over the Thunder as 14-point dogs yesterday.  I'm not calling for the upset here, but definitely see it going down to the wire.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games when revenging a road blowout loss of 20 points or more.  Take Memphis.

7* Pacers/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -7

The Key: After losing Game 1 to the Pacers, the Raptors are now desperate for a win in Game 2.  I look for them to put the pedal to the metal for four quarters and to blow the Pacers out of the building.  I also expect the Pacers to take their foot off the gas after winning Game 1 and earning home-court advantage, which had to be their goal leaving Toronto.  Indiana is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following two or more consecutive upset wins as road underdogs.  Take Toronto.

6* Grizzlies/Spurs Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Memphis +15.5

The Key: Everyone is writing the Grizzlies off in this series, which has created some nice line value in Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs.  They are getting 15.5-points, making them the biggest underdogs in all of the Game 1's.  The Grizzlies were swept by the Spurs in the regular season, but they played a lot tougher in both meetings in San Antonio.  They lost both those meetings by 8 and 6 points.  They've only lost one of their last seven meetings in San Antonio by more than 14 points.  Memphis is 7-0 ATS in road games off a combined score of 215 points or more this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses this season.  The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Memphis.

7* Pistons/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit +11

The Key: The Detroit Pistons showed during the regular season that they could hang with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  In fact, they went 3-1 against Cleveland this season and won both road meetings outright as underdogs.  That's why it makes no sense that the Cavs are laying 11 points in Game 1.  The Pistons present all kinds of matchup problems for the Cavaliers, and it starts with Andre Drummond, who Cleveland simply does not have an answer for inside.  He'll dominate the boards as he always does and create extra, crucial possessions for the Pistons all series long.  Cleveland is 26-53-1 ATS in its last 80 games against division opponents.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Cleveland.  Take Detroit.

7* Mavs/Thunder Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +12

The Key: The Thunder did sweep the season series with the Mavericks, but I believe that has them overvalued coming into Game 1.  They won those four meetings by an average of 9.5 points per game.  Now we're getting 12 points with the Mavericks, who should put up more of a fight than oddsmakers and the betting public are anticipating.  Dallas is 19-6 ATS vs. teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last 3 seasons.  The Mavs are 277-208 ATS in their last 485 games as a road underdog.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS loss.  The Mavs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The road team is 35-16-2 ATS in the last 53 meetings. The Mavericks are 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Take Dallas.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Sacramento Kings +15

The Key: This is a must-win situation for the Houston Rockets, who would clinch a playoff spot with a win today.  The oddsmakers know that the betting public is only going to back the Rockets in this game, so they have simply been forced to inflate this number.  I believe there's a ton of value with the Kings, who have not quit.  That is evidenced by the fact that they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite resting some of their starters here down the stretch.  Take Sacramento.

7* Thunder/Spurs Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City +9.5

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are in a huge letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off a home loss to the Golden State Warriors, their first home loss of the season.  They will now suffer a hangover against the Oklahoma City Thunder today.  Yes, the Thunder are resting their starters, but they're still good enough with what they have to stay within this 9.5-point spread.  San Antonio is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

The Key: The Timberwolves are playing their best basketball of the season right now and making life very difficult for playoff contenders.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, all three of which came on the road.  They even beat the record-setting Golden State Warriors, while also topping the Kings and Blazers.  Now they have their sights set on wrecking Houston's season.  I like their chances to do so considering they come in on a day of rest, while Houston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days.  The Rockets lost back-to-back games to the Mavs and Suns before beating the terrible Lakers yesterday.  Houston is 10-21 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Timberwolves are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.  Take Minnesota.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have won a season-high six straight to play their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Now they find themselves just one win away from clinching a playoff spot, and they'll be hungry to do so tonight against the Clippers. Los Angeles has rested its starters in recent games and won't be interested in playing its starters here either given that it is locked in to the No. 4 seed in the West.  That's why I believe the wrong teams is favored here in a game that the Mavs clearly need more.  The Clippers are 13-27 ATS in home games off 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.  The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Mavs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.  Take Dallas.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -1.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns had yesterday off following their 124-115 win over the Houston Rockets on Thursday.  The same cannot be said for the New Orleans Pelicans, who played last night in a 110-102 home win over the Lakers.  So not only will the Pelicans be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they'll also be playing their 4th game in 5 days.  That's a tough spot for a team that is missing the likes of Norris Cole, Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Alonzo Gee.  The Suns will put it to the short-handed Pelicans tonight in this awful spot for New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.  Take Phoenix.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia 76ers +2

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a 107-93 win over the New Orleans Pelicans.  Now they are a home underdog to the New York Knicks, who appear to have quit on their season.  The Knicks have lost five of their last six coming in with their only win coming at home over the Nets.  They lost 97-111 at home to the Hornets in their last contest.  The 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and will continue to be a nice bet tonight.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Spurs/Warriors TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -7

The Key: After losing two of their last three home games, the Golden State Warriors need to win out to beat the Bulls' record of 72 wins.  It starts tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  You know the Warriors will be going all-out to try and get the win, but the same cannot be said for the Spurs.  Greg Popovich has already hinted at resting his starters in both meetings with the Warriors left because the Spurs simply have nothing to play for as they are locked into the No. 2 seed.  They also don't want to show the Warriors anything for the playoffs.  Golden State is 22-10 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.  The Spurs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.  Take Golden State.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Los Angeles Lakers +10

The Key: This is a great spot to back the Lakers.  This is a home-and-home situation after these teams just played last night with the Clippers jumping out to a 20-2 lead and rolling to a 103-81 victory.  But look for the Lakers to fight back tonight, and for the Clippers to rest their starters as they have nothing to gain by winning this game.  They certainly won't be motivated to play it after beating the Lakers last night.  The Clippers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games off a division win by 20 or more points.  The Lakers are 15-5 ATS off a game with 15 or fewer assists this season.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS off a game where they made 35% of their shots or worse this season.  Take the Lakers.

7* Lakers/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Lakers +15

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers will give the Los Angeles Clippers a run for their money tonight.  The thing is that the Clippers have nothing to play for since they are locked in to the No. 4 seed.  So to make them favored by 15 points here is absolutely insane.  The Lakers have shown some nice fight here of late with a 102-100 victory over Miami as 10.5-point dogs and a 100-107 loss to Boston as 9-point dogs in their last two games.  The Clippers rested their starters against OKC two games ago and barely beat the Wizards 114-109 at home with their starters last game.  They won't be pushing their starters in this one, though.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Lakers.

7* UNC/Villanova *HEAVY HITTER* on UNC -2

The Key: North Carolina is the one team without any weaknesses in the NCAA Tournament.  That's why it is still alive and playing for a national title.  The Tar Heels have the best big men in the country, and Marcus Paige and Joel Berry II have really stepped up their games in the tournament.  Villanova has arguably the best guards in the land, but it is going to be at a serious disadvantage inside.  Daniel Ochefu is their only big man of any significance, and he isn't going to be able to hold his own against Carolina.  Coming into the Syracuse game, the Tar Heels were getting offensive rebounds on 46 percent of their misses.  The Tar Heels will own the paint in this game, and thus they will be crowned your 2016 national champions.  Take North Carolina.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Wizards +7

The Key: The Washington Wizards are showing solid value as 7-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  They are still holding out slim hopes of making the playoffs as they are 3 games back of No. 8 Indiana.  They will continue to fight until they are eliminated.  Meanwhile, the Clippers have nothing to play for as they are locked in to the No. 4 seed in the West.  They even rested all of their starters last time out and are not interested in winning any of the remainder of their games.  The Wizards are 19-6 ATS in April games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are showing solid value as only 1.5-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons today.  The Bulls are only one game behind the Pacers for 8th place in the East.  They also trail the Pistons, who just lost to the Mavs yesterday and now will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The circumstances make this a great spot to back the Bulls at this short number at home.  Take Chicago.

7* Villanova/Oklahoma Final Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -2

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats are showing solid value as only 2-point favorites over the Oklahoma Sooners.  They have certainly been the most impressive team in the tournament thus far, beating the likes of Miami and Kansas in the last two rounds.  The win over Kansas is the significant because it is a Big 12 opponent, and one that went 2-0 against Oklahoma this year.  The Wildcats play as a team, which makes them a lot more dangerous than the Sooners, who are too reliant upon Buddy Hield.  Take Villanova.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Warriors UNDER 222

The Key: The Celtics and Warriors both have a lot to play for right now, so the defensive intensity should be high in this game.  These teams met earlier this season with the Warriors winning 124-119 in double-overtime.  But that game was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for 206 combined points.  That's about the same output I expect tonight at the end of regulation as this game stays well below the 222-point total.  Boston is 14-3 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER.

7* Celtics/Blazers Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Boston +3.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics come in fresh and ready to go tonight.  They have had two days off, and now they are looking for a strong finish to the season to try and secure home-court advantage in the first round.  The Celtics are currently in 4th place, tied with 5th place Charlotte and 6th place Miami at 43-31.  They are also one game behind 3rd place Atlanta.  So, essentially there's one game separating the 3-6 seeds.  The Celtics want home court in that first round.  Bets on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who score 103 or more points on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half are 38-13 ATS since 1996.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Take Boston.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +4

The Key: The Utah Jazz have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall to put themselves in position to make the playoffs.  They are clinging on to the one of the final two spots in the West, only one game ahead of 9th place Dallas, though.  They still have work to do, and now they're next victim will be the Golden State Warriors.  This is an awful spot for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They are struggling to live up to expectations here of late as they've gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Utah lost by 3 at home to Golden State in its last meeting.  Bets on underdogs who are revenging a loss where opponent score 110 or more points, off two straight covers as a favorite are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Utah.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix Suns +7

The Key: With the way the Bucks are playing right now they should not be 7-point favorites against anyone.  They are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall and clearly appear to be giving up on the season.  They lost by 24 points to the Hornets at home in their last game, which is evidence of that.  The Suns actually continue to play out the string and be competitive.  They are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and they've only lost twice by more than 7 points during this stretch.  Phoenix is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss.  Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 visits to Milwaukee.  Take Phoenix.

6* Wizards/Warriors TNT *BAILOUT* on Washington +13

The Key: The Washington Wizards are fighting for their playoff lives as they are currently tied with the Chicago Bulls for 9th place in the East.  They trail the Detroit Pistons by 2.5 games and the Indiana Pacers by 3 games for the final two playoff spots.  They will be giving max effort tonight to beat the Warriors, and I believe it will be good enough to cover this massive 13-point spread.  The Warriors have consistently been overvalued here of late as they chase down the Bulls' record.  They are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games with only one of their wins coming by more than 12 points.  They only beat the 76ers by 12 as 22-point favorites at home last time out.  Bets on dogs of 10 or more points after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last 3 games, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season are 29-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Washington.

7* Rockets/Cavs TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston +2

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are more worried about being healthy and rested going into the playoffs than getting the No. 1 seed in the East.  That's why they are resting Lebron James tonight.  They should not be favored without James against a Houston Rockets team that is fighting for their playoff lives.  The Rockets are tied for 8th place with the Mavericks in the West.  Houston is 14-3 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons, and 37-15 ATS in its last 52 Tuesday games overall.  The Rockets are 84-54 ATS in their last 138 road games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Cleveland is 27-38 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.  Take Houston.

6* Celtics/Clippers NBA *BAILOUT* on Boston +4

The Key: The motivational edge is clearly with the Celtics in this game.  They are the No. 4 seed in the East right now, but only 0.5 games behind No. 3 Atlanta and 0.5 games ahead of No. 5 Miami.  They need to keep winning to assure they get home court in the 1st round.  The Clippers have lost 5 of their last 8 and are having a hard time focusing right now.  You can pretty much pencil them in the the No. 4 seed in the West because they aren't going to catch the Thunder, and the Grizzlies aren't catching them.  Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 against a team with a winning record.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games as a dog in the 3.5 to 6 price range.  Take Boston.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +2.5

The Key: The motivational edge is clearly with the Raptors in this game.  They are chasing down the Cavaliers for home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference as they currently sit 2.5 games back.  You can pretty much pencil in the Thunder for the No. 3 seed in the West because they have a huge lead on the Clippers and can't catch the Spurs. The Raptors have a tremendous home-court advantage this season as they are 28-8 at home.  They are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams who outscore the opposition by 3 or more points per game.  The Thunder are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering the spread as a favorite of 10 or more points in their previous game.  Take Toronto.

7* UNC/Notre Dame Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNC -9

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have been rolling of late.  They have won 8 in a row.  They won the ACC Tournament, and they haven't had to break a sweat in the NCAA Tournament.  They have won all 3 NCAA Tournament games by 15 points or more.  That trend will continue tonight against Notre Dame, which could have lost each of its first 3 games in the NCAA Tournament.  The Fighting Irish have won their 3 games by a combined 13 points.  They last lost to UNC in the ACC Tournament by 31 points.  A repeat performance can be expected here as they take a huge step up in competition.  Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season.  Take North Carolina.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Indiana Pacers -2

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are currently the #7 seed in the East.  They are just 2 games ahead of 9th place Chicago.  After missing the playoffs by 1 game last year, they are not going to let it happen again.  I really like the Pacers here as only 2-point favorites over the Rockets.  The Pacers are 22-13 at home this season, while the Rockets are just 16-21 on the road.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or more in the first half of last game this season.  The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 visits to the Pacers.  Take Indiana.

7* Kansas/Villanova Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -2

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats are obviously on fire right now.  But they haven't played a team that D's you up quite like Kansas, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday.  The Jayhawks have actually had the tougher path in my opinion with their last two games coming against UConn and Maryland, and they won those games by 12 and 16 points, respectively.  The Jayhawks only allow 39.7% shooting on the season, which is very impressive when you consider they play in the Big 12.  They also only allow only 6 made 3-pointers per game and 32.3% shooting from distance.  The key to stopping Villanova is defending the 3-point line, and not many teams do it as well as Kansas.  Not to mention, the Jayhawks put up 81.9 points per game on 49.6% shooting offensively, so they are pretty much unstoppable at that end.  Kansas is 7-0 ATS in Saturday road games this season.  The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this year.  Take Kansas.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Pistons -1.5

The Key: The Detroit Pistons are rolling right now and taking advantage of a long homestand.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and still have three more games on this homestand.  Now it's revenge time against the Hawks, who they lost to 114-118 to start this homestand on March 16 just 10 days ago.  The Pistons are 24-12 at home this season and have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league.  They are 22-12 ATS at home as well and should be more than just a 1.5-point favorite here.  Detroit is 37-18-2 ATS in its last 57 home games overall.  Both teams played yesterday, but the Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  Take Detroit.

6* Indiana/UNC Sweet 16 *BAILOUT* on UNDER 158.5

The Key: The public perception on UNC and Indiana is that they are both offensive juggernauts.  That's why this total has been set so high tonight.  But the fact of the matter is that both are better defensively than they get credit for, which is why both have been dominant down the stretch.  UNC has held 6 of its last 7 opponents to less than a point per possession, and it finished ranked 3rd in the ACC in defensive efficiency.  Indiana was able to win the Big Ten this season because it finished 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency.  19 of UNC's last 20 games have seen less than 160 combined points, while 19 of Indiana's last 21 games have seen less than 160 combined points at the end of regulation.  The UNDER is 14-5 in UNC's last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Hoosiers last 5 neutral site games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Iowa State/Virginia Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Iowa State +6

The Key: Getting 6 points with Iowa State in a game that they will likely win outright tonight is simply too much.  All you have to do is look at how their season has gone to find that there is value in getting 6 points.  All 11 of Iowa State's losses this season have come by 10 points or less, and a whopping 7 of those have come by 5 points or fewer.  This team simply does not get blown out.  They have a Top 3 offense in the country that will test Virginia's pack-line defense.  The Cyclones have 6 different players who can beat you, which makes them so tough to stop.  Butler hung tough with Virginia for 40 minutes, and the Bulldogs are similar to ISU in that they shoot the 3-pointer well, which gives you a chance against Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest over the last 3 years.  Take Iowa State.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -7.5

The Key: Sitting in 10th place in the East, 2.5 games behind the No. 8 Pistons, the Wizards cannot afford to lose many more games going forward.  They will give the Minnesota Timberwolves their full attention.  Washington has won 5 of its last 6 games coming in with 4 of those wins coming by 10 points or more.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Better yet, the Wizards are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Minnesota.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Key: This is a home-and-home situation where the Chicago Bulls actually lost at home to the New York Knicks last night.  Now, the Bulls sit in 9th place in the Eastern Conference needing to make up some ground.  They will come out determined tonight and will take down the Knicks, who won't be as interested since they are out of the playoff hunt and just beat the Bulls last night.  New York is 3-11 ATS as a home dog of 6 points or less this season.  Bets on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging a loss vs. opponent against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 60-26 ATS since 1996.  Take Chicago.

7* Miami/Villanova Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Villanova -4

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats have absolutely been on fire this month.  They have shot at least 48% from the field in 7 of their last 8 games, and their No. 1 scoring defense in the land continues to shut down opponents.  A big reason for their efficient offense is that they share the ball better than anyone left in the Sweet 16, averaging far and way more assists than any other team since the beginning of March.  I believe the Wildcats are really on a mission because they had the most to prove coming into the tournament.  The next victim is going to be Miami, which struggled to get by both Buffalo and Wichita State to get here.  The Wildcats are also an excellent free throw shooting team, and if this game comes down to it, they'll put it away at the line.  Plus, Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 vs. teams who shoot 77% or better from the free throw line.  Take Villanova.

7* Clippers/Warriors ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles +10

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers are desperate for a win after losing four of their last five coming in.  They now take on a team that has beaten them five straight times in the Warriors, but not once were the Clippers overwhelmed.  In fact, all 5 losses came by 8 points or less, and now they're getting 10 points here.  This is too much, especially with the injuries the Warriors are dealing with to Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Festus Ezeli.  The Warriors have not played well of late with an 8-point loss at San Antonio and a 5-point win at Minnesota in their last two games.  Bets on road underdogs who allowed 105 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent off a win by 6 points or less are 29-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles.

7* St. Mary's/Valparaiso NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Valparaiso -3.5

The Key: Valparaiso is 16-1 at home this season and laying only 3.5 points to St. Mary's Tuesday in NIT action.  The Crusaders have had 4 days' rest in between games having last played on March 17, while the Gaels have only had 1 days' rest in between games having last played on March 20.  This rest advantage is a big reason why I'm backing the Crusaders in a game that would otherwise be pretty evenly-matched.  The Crusaders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. teams who win at least 80% of their games on the season.  They have played their best against the best competition.  Take Valparaiso.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls -7.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are clinging on to the 8th seed in the East by mere percentage points over Detroit.  They gotta keep winning, and they're doing a good job of it since Jimmy Butler returned, winning 3 of their last 4 coming in.  Now they catch the Sacramento Kings in a very tough spot.  The Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They will have nothing left to give tonight against a Bulls team that desperately needs this win.  The Kings are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take Chicago.

7* GW/Monmouth NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Monmouth -2

The Key: The Monmouth Hawks have gone on the road and beaten USC, Notre Dame, UCLA and Georgetown this season.  They are a very good team and arguably the biggest snubs of the NCAA Tournament Field.  But they are glad to be playing in the NIT anyway, and they proved that with their 10-point win over Bucknell.  George Washington doesn't even want to be here and was nearly upset in a 2-point home win over Hofstra.  This is a very short number for Monmouth to have to cover considering it is at home and the better team.  The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams who win more than 60% of their games, while the Colonials are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who win more than 60% of their games.  Take Monmouth.

6* Wisconsin/Xavier East Region *CA$H COW* on Xavier -4

The Key: Wisconsin simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Xavier.  The Badgers were held to 58 points in their 12-point loss to Nebraska in the Big Ten Tournament, and they only managed 47 points against Pitt last round.  Fortunately for the Badgers, Pitt couldn't make anything.  But Xavier is an explosive offensive team full of athletes.  The Musketeers have six players averaging at least 9.5 points per game.  Xavier made the Elite 8 last year and is determined to get back.  The Musketeers are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games.  Take Xavier.

6* NBA *TOTAL* Annihilator on Jazz/Bucks UNDER 192

The Key: When the Jazz and Bucks get together, the end result is usually a low-scoring affair.  That will be the case again tonight when these teams meet up in Milwaukee.  Both teams are fighting to stay alive in their respective playoff races, which will add to the defensive intensity.  The last two meetings between these teams have seen 157 and 165 combined points.  That's an average of 161 combined points per game, which is 31 points below this 192-point total today.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 Sunday games.  Take the UNDER.

7* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Villanova/Iowa UNDER 146

The Key: Villanova and Iowa are two of the best defensive teams in the country.  Villanova is the most efficient scoring defense in the land as it allows only 63.5 points per game and under 40% shooting.  Iowa allows 68.7 points per game and 41.6% shooting this season.  Villanova lives off the 3-pointer, but Iowa doesn't allow that, giving up just 30.8% 3-point shooting this season.  Villanova is 8-1 UNDER in its last 9 neutral court games when the total is 140 to 149.5.  Take the UNDER.

7* Providence/UNC Round of 32 *BAILOUT* on Providence +10.5

The Key: Providence is good enough to beat any team in the country, including UNC.  The good news is that it doesn't have to win to cover this massive 10.5-point spread.  The Friars have arguably the best 1-2 punch in the land in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil, which gives them a chance to beat anyone.  We saw them go on the road and beat Villanova earlier this season.  We are seeing this team hit its stride with wins in 5 of its last 6 games with its only loss coming by 8 points to Villanova as 8.5-point dogs in the Big East Tournament.  UNC looked vulnerable only up 41-40 at halftime on Florida Gulf Coast, only to put them away in the 2nd half and win by 16 as 23.5-point favorites.  The Friars are 9-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  The Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.  The Tar Heels are 6-13 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.  Take Providence.

6* NCAA Tournament *TOTAL* Annihilator on Gonzaga/Utah UNDER 140

The Key: Utah and Gonzaga play similar styles that will make points hard to come by in this one.  Both have tremendous interior defense with their size inside, and they use that size on offense to try and get easy buckets.  But the buckets won't come easy in this one because both teams defend the paint so well.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Utah's last nine games vs. teams who outscore opponents by 12 or more per game on the season after 15 or more games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulldogs' last 5 games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Utah's last 13 games vs. WCC foes.  Take the UNDER.

6* Warriors/Spurs ABC National TV *Annihilator* on San Antonio -3

The Key: I have a feeling the San Antonio Spurs are going to want to make a statement tonight against the Golden State Warriors.  They want to show the Warriors that they mean business if these teams were to meet in the playoffs, especially after getting embarrassed 90-120 at Golden State in their last meeting.  The Spurs didn't have Tim Duncan in that game, but it might not have mattered.  However, the Warriors are now without Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut, two key pieces whose absences are bigger than most realize, especially defensively.  The Spurs are 34-0 at home this season, and they aren't about to lose their first game tonight.  Take San Antonio.

7* Friday NCAAB *UPSET SPECIAL* on Northern Iowa +4.5

The Key: The Northern Iowa Panthers are a live underdog who I believe will pull the 11/6 upset Friday.  They have made noise in the big dance before in knocking off Kansas a few years ago.  Few teams have better wins than they do.  The Panthers have beaten North Carolina, Iowa State and Wichita State (twice).  They can clearly hang with a Texas team that comes in having lost two out of its last three by a combined 46 points.  Northern Iowa has gone 12-1 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  It is 8-0 ATS versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15 games this season.  The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Longhorns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.  Take this combined 33-1 angle in favor of the Panthers straight to the bank Friday.  Take Northern Iowa.

6* Friday East Region *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +2

The Key: Give Wisconsin credit for bouncing back after Bo Ryan retired early in the season after a terrible start that includes home losses to Western Illinois, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Marquette.  But this isn't even close to the Badgers' team that made the championship game last year.  They have no business being favored over Pitt with the way they closed the season.  They lost by 11 at Purdue and by 12 to Nebraska in the conference tournament.  Common opponents are in Pitt's favor.  The Panthers are 3-1 against common opponents with Wisconsin, which is 1-2 in those games.  Pitt is scoring 76.0 points per game on 46% shooting against teams that allow 71.6 on 43.4% shooting, so it is an elite offensive team.  It is also allowing 67.9 against teams that average 73.8, so it is better than it gets credit for defensively, too.  The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  The Badgers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.  Take Pitt.

6* Friday West Region *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma -14

The Key: Oklahoma went 12-0 in non-conference games this season while outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  They even beat Villanova by 23 on a neutral court.  They did not win the Big 12 like they wanted to, but they came very close to doing so as five of their conference losses came by 5 points or fewer.  CS-Bakersfield is no match for the Sooners, who will be essentially playing at home in Oklahoma City.  Bakersfield lost by 35 to Saint Mary's and by 16 to Arizona State, and it doesn't have any significant wins this season against quality competition.  The Sooners are by far the best team they will have played, and the end result won't be a pretty one for Bakersfield. Take Oklahoma.

7* NCAAB 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence -2

The Key: Providence comes in having won 4 of its last 5 games overall while going 5-0 ATS in the process.  The Friars are getting back to playing like they were when they started 14-1.  Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil may be the best 1-2 punch in the tournament.  USC comes in having lost 7 of its last 10 games with all seven losses by at least 7 points each.  The Trojans are just 5-10 in all road games this season.  Their only significant win away from home came against a Wichita State team that was without Fred VanVleet.  The Friars already beat Arizona from the Pac-12 on a neutral court, while the Trojans lost to Xavier from the Big East by 10 on a neutral floor.  Providence is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.  Take Providence.

6* Thursday Midwest Region *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -7.5

The Key: Iowa State will be out to make a statement after losing to UAB in the opening round last year.  Without question, Iona has the Cyclones' full attention this time around.  I love this Iowa State team that is one of only two teams with 6 players scoring at least 10 points per game.  The Cyclones rank 3rd in the nation in offensive efficiency. They lost 11 games this season but were in every one of them as they all came by 10 points or fewer, including seven by 5 points or less.  Iona lost by 25 to Valpo and by 20 to Oregon State out of conference this year.  Betting against dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have won at least 4 straight, who are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament has produced a 49-19 ATS record since 1997.  The Cyclones should be favored by more.  Take Iowa State.

6* Thursday South Region *CA$H COW* on Connecticut -3

The Key: UConn was very impressive in the AAC Tournament.  After beating Cincinnati in four overtimes, the Huskies rolled to a 15-point win over Temple and a 14-point win over Memphis to capture the title.  The Huskies get after it defensively as well as anyone in the country.  They allow 63.1 points per game and 38.2% shooting, including just 41% in the pain.  That's key because they will need to stop Colorado's Josh Scott, a forward/center who is their best player.  The Buffaloes were only 6-10 away from home this season.  They were actually outscored on a per possession basis in Pac-12 play this season as well.  The Huskies are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games, while the Buffaloes are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 postseason tournament games.  Take UConn.

6* Tulsa/Michigan First Four *CA$H COW* on Tulsa +4

The Key: Tulsa is the one team that every expert in the country felt didn't belong in the NCAA Tournament.  Playing with that important chip on their shoulder, the Golden Hurricane will be out to prove a point tonight against Michigan. The Wolverines are fortune to be in the big dance themselves considering they needed OT to beat Northwestern and caught Indiana on an off day in the Big Ten Tournament, otherwise they wouldn't be in.  I love the veteran leadership of this Tulsa team with 7 seniors who play on a regular basis.  SMU and UConn are common opponents for these teams.  Tulsa beat both of them, while Michigan lost to both.  This is a game I expect the Golden Hurricane to win outright, but getting the points is an added bonus.  Take Tulsa.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago Bulls +5.5

The Key: Getting a healthy Jimmy Butler back in the lineup last time out helped the Bulls to a big road win over the Toronto Raptors.  There is a good chance Derrick Rose returns tonight, too, and the Bulls are going to be a very dangerous team going forward with these two.  Washington has lost 5 of its last 6 with three losses by 16 points or more.  The Wizards are coming off a blowout win over the Pistons, but they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by 10 points or more. The underdog is 25-10 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series.  The road team is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Chicago.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto Raptors -2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 23-6 in their last 29 games overall.  Off a loss to the Bulls last night, I expect Toronto to come back focused tonight to take care of business against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are just 28-39 on the season.  The Raptors have owned the Bucks, going 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with them.  The Bucks are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 home games when coming off two or more straight wins.  Take Toronto.

6* NCAAB First Four *CA$H COW* on Florida Gulf Coast -5.5

The Key: Florida Gulf Coast is a very good team on both ends of the floor.  It is averaging 77 points and shooting nearly 48% on offense, while giving up just 70 points and 42% shooting defensively.  While Fairleigh Dickinson can score, it cannot defend, which is going to be its undoing here.  The Knights are actually the worst team defensively of the 68 teams in the field.  They give up 78.2 points per game on 45% shooting this season.  Gulf Coast is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games.  Take Florida Gulf Coast.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves/Suns UNDER 222

The Key: It's pretty easy to see that this total has been inflated when you look at recent meetings between the Timberwolves and Suns.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and none of those five games saw more than 220 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 209 points per game in those five contests.  As you can see, that's 13 points fewer than the 222-point total set today.  Minnesota is 21-3 UNDER in its last 24 road games off an upset win over a division opponent.  Phoenix is 9-1 UNDER in March home games over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER.

7* AAC Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +5.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the AAC Championship Game against UConn.  Memphis has won its last 3 games by 20, 22 and 30 points, respectively.  Now the Tigers have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament with a win Sunday, and they won't blow this opportunity.  The UConn Huskies are already in the big dance no matter how this game turns out.  While they didn't show effects from the 4 OT game yesterday, I believe their 3rd game in 3 days here will finally get the best of them.  Memphis should be fresh with the ease of which it has won the last 2 days.  UConn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off 3 or more straight wins.  Take Memphis.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards +1

The Key: The Washington Wizards have lost four straight and are now 30-34 on the season.  They need to get it together in a hurry if they want to make the playoffs.  A date with the lowly Denver Nuggets should help their cause tonight.  Washington is 15-7 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.  Denver is 15-28 ATS in its last 43 games games against a team with a losing record.  The Wizards are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take Washington.

6* SEC Tournament *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -10.5

The Key: The Kentucky Wildcats have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are getting better as the season goes on, which is usually the case for John Calipari since he took over at Kentucky.  They are coming off a 26-point win over Alabama yesterday, while Georgia barely survived in a 65-64 win over South Carolina.  Now the Wildcats get to face a Georgia team that they've owned.  They have won 5 straight meetings by 18.0 points per game, including their 34-point romp of the Bulldogs earlier this season.  Take Kentucky.

7* UConn/Temple AAC Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple +2

The Key: UConn played 4 overtimes yesterday in a 104-97 win over Cincinnati.  It's safe to say that they won't have much left to give today against Temple.  The Owls just keep flying under the radar this season.  They won the American Athletic, earned the No. 1 seed in this tournament, dismantled South Florida by 17 yesterday, and now they're underdogs to a team that just played 4 overtimes?  Give me a break.  Take Temple.