Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Mavs/Knicks TNT *CA$H COW* on UNDER 215.5 

The Key: The Mavericks and Knicks just played 6 days ago with the Knicks pulling the 106-102 upset in Dallas for 208 combined points.  I think we see another defensive struggle in the rematch here tonight.  The Knicks are scoring just 99.5 PPG on the season and 94.7 PPG at home, so I don’t think they’ll be able to hold up their end of the bargain offensively.  Dallas is 21-11 UNDER when revenging a same season loss over the last 2 years.  New York is 13-3 UNDER in home games after going over the total in their previous game over the last 2 years.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Knicks last 51 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Wednesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Northern Iowa -10 

The Key: Northern Iowa returned 4 starters this year and will be a factor to win the Missouri Valley this year.  This is the most talented team Ben Jacobson has had in a while.  I believe he’s the best coach in the Missouri Valley.  The Panthers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this year with wins and covers over quality Old Dominion and Northern Illinois teams.  Now they face a CS-Bakersfield team that isn’t nearly as good as the two teams they have already played.  The Panthers should have no problem winning by double-digits.  Bakersfield is picked 6th in the WAC this year.  The went 18-16 last year but lost 3 of their top 4 scorers.  They only return 2 of their worst starters and 2 reserves.  They were upset by South Dakota State at home last time out.  Bakersfield is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Northern Iowa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Northern Iowa. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston Celtics -8 

The Key: The Boston Celtics are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Oddsmakers just aren’t quite adjusting enough for how improved this team is with Kemba Walker and company.  Now they face the Washington Wizards, who are 2-6 on the season with each of their last 3 losses coming by 13 points or more to th eCavaliers, Pacers and Timberwolves.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 years.  Washington is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 trips to Boston.  Take Boston. 

6* Lakers/Suns Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix +2.5 

The Key: The chemistry of the Phoenix Suns to start the season has been impressive.  The Suns are 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS to be the best covering team in the NBA thus far.  Monty Williams is clearly getting the most out of these players and was a great hire.  They are sharing the ball very well and have made at least 11 3-pointers in a franchise-record seven consecutive games.  They had a season-high 19 in a 138-112 blowout home win over the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday.  They also had a season-high 37 assists on 52 baskets and a season-low seven turnovers.  Now they will take down Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.  Anthony Davis has been slowed by a shoulder injury that could sideline him any given night, which would be a huge loss for the Lakers.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Phoenix. 

6* Tuesday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Valparaiso -6 

The Key: SIU-Edwardsville is 1-1 this season with a lackluster 61-52 home win over Quincy.  They lost 60-87 at Iowa, which was just upset at home by DePaul by 15 as a 9.5-point favorite.  Valparaiso upset Toledo at home and lost on the road to Saint Louis by 11 as a 9.5-point dog.  They have been tested against two good teams, and now they face a cupcake they can beat up on, which is exactly what I expect them to do.  Valpo returned its 2 best players from last year in Javon Freeman and Ryan Fazekas.  They added in good transfers in Iron Gordon from Seton Hall and Nick Robinson from Saint Joe’s as well as Zion Morgan from UNLV.  Morgan teamed with Robinson at Chicago’s Kenwood High School, giving them some chemistry.  Daniel Sackey is also a returning starter who is averaging 14.5 points and 6.0 assists through two games.  Freeman (19 ppg) and Fazekas (13 ppg) are both off to fantastic starts this year as well.  The Crusaders are 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 years.  SIU-Edwardsville is 1-8 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 years.  Take Valparaiso. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Pistons -3 

The Key: No analysis Saturday through Monday. On Vacation. 

6* Sunday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Ohio State -23

The Key: No analysis Saturday through Monday. On Vacation. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 

The Key: No analysis Saturday through Monday. On Vacation. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bulls +6.5 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* Saturday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +2.5 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Pacers UNDER 211 

The Key: The Pistons and Pacers square off for a 3rd time already this season.  They only combined for 190 points in their last meeting on October 28th.  Points will be hard to come by again in this rematch because both teams have the injury bug right now to almost all of their key scorers.  The Pistons are without Griffin, Jackson and Rose.  The Pacers are without Oladipo and Lamb and Turner is questionable.  Indiana is 8-0 UNDER when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last 3 years.  Indiana is 20-4 UNDER at home with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Friday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Memphis -18

The Key: The Memphis Tigers had the top recruiting class in the country this season.  Penny Hardaway is doing big things recruiting his former AAU players when he was a head coach for them, which gives him a huge advantage.  I look for the Tigers to show out tonight against Illinois-Chicago.  Memphis won 97-64 as a 26-point favorite against South Carolina State in their opener to get the cover.  Illinois-Chicago nearly was upset by Olivet Nazarene of all teams, only winning 75-72 after getting an and-one with only a few seconds remaining.  After that result, there’s no way they can hang with Memphis.  Illinois-Chicago is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a road dog of 18.5 to 24 points.  Take Memphis. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 

The Key: I think we are getting the Spurs cheap tonight because they are coming off 2 straight losses, while the Thunder are coming off 2 straight wins.  The Spurs will be hungry for a win to avoid a 3-game losing streak.  They have been competitive in every game this season and their 3 losses have come to the Clippers, Lakers and Hawks with 2 of those on the road.  They are a quality team.  The Thunder are still one of the worst teams in the West with all they lost in the offseason.  Bets on home favorites who failed to cover 3 of their last 4 ATS against an opponent that covered 4 of their last 5 ATS are 76-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Thunder.  Take San Antonio. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +4 

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing for a second consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pacers also played an overtime game against the Hornets last night.  The Wizards had yesterday off and have been competitive in every game by one this year.  That’s a big reason why the Wizards are 5-1 ATS and rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The road team has covered 19 of the last 26 meetings in this series.  The Wizards are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Indiana.  Take Washington. 

6* Notre Dame/UNC ACC *CA$H COW* on Notre Dame +10 

The Key: Notre Dame returns all 5 starters this year and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  UNC returns just one starter and lost a ton of talent to the NBA.  The Tar Heels should not be laying double-digits against this veteran Fighting Irish squad that will give them a run for their money tonight.  3 of the last 4 meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or fewer.  The Fighting Irish are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Notre Dame. 

6* St. Mary’s/Wisconsin NCAAB *CA$H COW* on St. Mary’s -5 

The Key: The St. Mary’s Gaels are ranked and one of the best teams in the country coming into the season.  The Gaels return 4 starters from a team that went 22-12 last year.  They have Jordan Ford (21.1 ppg), Tanner Krebs (8.9 ppg), Tommy Kuhse (6.2 ppg) and Malik Fitts (15.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg) back as starters.  Wisconsin loses its best player in Ethan Happ (17.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and fellow starter Khalil Iverson (6.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg).  They do have 3 starters back, but they are sure to take a step back this year.  The Badgers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 neutral site games.  Take St. Mary’s. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Charlotte Hornets +3.5 

The Key: The Indiana Pacers should not be favored on the road over the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  It’s a Pacers team playing without Victor Oladip and Myles Turner.  And Domantas Sabonis is banged up with a calf injury and questionable.  Both teams are 3-3 but there is a major difference.  Charlotte has played the 6th-hardest schedule in the NBA, while the Pacers have played the easiest (30th).  The home team has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings and the Hornets are 8-1 ATS in the last 9 home meetings. Take Charlotte. 

7* Kansas/Duke NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -2 

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils lost Zion, Barrett and Redish to the NBA.  They won’t be as talented as they were last year, and they certainly won’t be hitting on all cylinders to start the season with so many freshmen.  The Kansas Jayhawks are a more veteran team than they normally are.  They have 3 starters back, a healthy Udoka Azubuike, and got the great news that Silvio De Sousa will be eligible.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Duke.  Take Kansas. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans +4 

The Key: Two disappointing teams square off Monday when the Pelicans visit the Nets.  The Pelicans are just 1-5, but they are better than their record in my opinion.  They have been competitive in all 5 losses with their largest margin of defeat being 11 points.  And it has been against one of the toughest schedules in the NBA.  The Nets have played the 2nd-easiest schedule int he NBA and are just 2-4 with their wins coming over the Knicks by 4 and Rockets by 7.  They have lost to the Pacers, Pistons, Grizzlies and Timberwolves.  They shouldn’t even be favored in this contest.  Brooklyn is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.  The Nets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Brooklyn.  Take New Orleans. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Charlotte Hornets +1 

The Key: The Golden State Warriors may be the worst team in the Western Conference now without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.  They just don’t even have a chance of being competitive now with their only 2 good players being De’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green.  The Warriors would be better off just trading Russell and packing it in at this point.  They have no depth and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  They are giving up 126 PPG and 52% shooting to opponents this year.  They lost 127-110 to the Spurs at home last night.  Now they’ll be playing for a second straight day and their 5th game in 7 days.  The Charlotte Hornets have had 2 days off coming in having last played on Wednesday.  Take Charlotte. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have opened 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with their 2 losses coming by exactly one point each.  But I have a hard time believing the Suns are that much better than they were last year because they didn’t improve their roster all that much, and they are without De’Andre Ayton.  I think because they have covered all 5 games they are now getting too much respect from the books as a road favorite here. They were dogs in 4 of their first 5 games with the only exception being a favorite at home against Sacramento.  They shouldn’t be favored on the road at Memphis tonight.  This is a young, talented Grizzlies team that will benefit from having 3 days off coming into this game having last played on Tuesday.  Take Memphis. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio Spurs -6.5 

The Key: The Golden State Warriors may be the worst team in the Western Conference now without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.  They just don’t even have a chance of being competitive now with their only 2 good players being De’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green.  The Warriors would be better off just trading Russell and packing it in this season at this point.  They have no depth and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  They are allowing 126.2 PPG and 52% shooting to opponents this year.  The Warriors are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 home games.  The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take San Antonio. 

6* Heat/Hawks NBA *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215 

The Key: I really like betting the UNDER in Game 2 of these home-and-home situations.  The Heat and Hawks played on Tuesday with the Heat winning 112-97 at home in a game that saw 209 combined points.  And now Trae Young won’t be available for this game, yet the total is 215.  The Hawks are lost offensively without Young and it showed in that game Tuesday when he went out with the Heat leading 33-31.  The Heat went on a big run after that and put away the Hawks, who shot just 42.2% from eh field.  The UNDER is 25-12 in Heat last 37 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games overall.  The UNDER is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Suns/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on OVER 229 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors both like to get up and down the floor as both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace.  Both teams also rank in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency, and the Warriors are dead last in defensive efficiency.  The Suns rank well on defense right now, but that’s not going to last.  The Suns are scoring 114 PPG, the Warriors are scoring 116 PPG, and the Warriors are giving up 128 PPG.  Teams are shooting 54.2% on this soft Warriors defense.  These teams have combined for at least 224 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings.  The OVER is 7-1 in Suns last 8 games off a loss.  The OVER is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings at Golden State.  Take the OVER. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Charlotte Hornets +7.5 

The Key: The Sacramento Kings can’t be this big of a favorite over anyone.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS losing by an average of 19.5 PPG.  They haven’t even been competitive, and Luke Walton is once again proving that he’s one of the worst head coaches in the NBA after his failed experiment with the Lakers.  The Kings should have never fired Dave Joerger.  The Hornets have played a brutal schedule and are 1-3.  They beat the Bulls at home, and their 3 losses came to the Clippers, Lakers and Timberwolves.  They step back down in class here against a Kings team they can handle.  The Hornets are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off 2 or more consecutive losses.  Charlotte is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games against a team that wins less than 40% of their games.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Kings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Charlotte. 

6* Hawks/Heat NBA *CA$H COW* on Atlanta +8 

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are 3-0 ATS this season and have been a money making machine dating back to last year.  The Hawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  They are catching too many points from the Miami Heat tonight.  Jimmy Butler makes his season debut for the Heat and I think it will throw off their chemistry.  The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Heat while winning 4 times outright as underdogs.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Jazz/Suns NBA *CA$H COW* on Utah -4 

The Key: The Jazz have one of the best rosters in the NBA and are a real contender in the West.  They added Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic this offseason.  They are 2-1 with their only loss coming on the road to the Lakers.  The Suns are fool’s gold with heir 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this year.  The Jazz will expose them tonight as I think we are getting them very cheap based on series history.  The Jazz are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Suns with all 7 wins coming by 10 points or more and by an average of 24.1 PPG.  Take Utah. 

6* Warriors/Pelicans NBA *CA$H COW* on New Orleans -4.5 

The Key: The Warriors are clearly broken this year.  Not only do they miss Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, but they also miss 2 key players they were depending on this season.  Their 2 best big men in Kevon Looney and Willie Cauley-Stein are both out.  The Warriors lost by 19 at home to the Clippers and by 28 on the road to the Thunder.  I don’t think they are fixable here early in the season due to the injuries and lack of depth.  The Pelicans are 0-3, but their 3 losses all came by 7 points or less to 3 really good teams in the Raptors, Mavs and Rockets with 2 of them on the road.  The Pelicans will get their first win of the season in blowout fashion at home Monday night.  Take New Orleans. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 

The Key: The situation favors the Minnesota Timberwolves in a big way tonight.  It’s their home opener, they play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, and they get a Miami Heat team that will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their huge overtime win in Milwaukee yesterday.  Look for the Timberwolves to try and run them out of the building.  Take Minnesota. 

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 

The Key: The Bucks should roll in their home opener over the depleted Miami Heat tonight.  The Bucks have won and covered 3 straight against the Heat with all 3 wins coming by 15 points or more and by an average of 27.3 PPG.  The Bucks have beaten the Heat badly in their last 2 meetings in Milwaukee by an average of 34.5 PPG.  Take Milwaukee. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Nuggets -11.5 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns will be without star center Deandre Ayton for the foreseeable future due to a suspension.  He had a big game against the Kings in an opening night home win.  Without him, the Suns have no rim protection, and the Nuggets should score at will on them.  The Nuggets won 132-95 and 119-91 in their last two home meetings with the Suns.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with the Suns.  The Suns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Nuggets overall.  Take Denver. 

6* Bucks/Rockets NBA *Total* Annihilator on OVER 229 

The Key: This is a great opener for both teams that fans should love.  The Bucks ranked 2nd in the NBA in pace in the preseason with 111 possessions per game and will play at one of the fastest paces in the league during the regular season as well.  The Rockets ranked 6th in pace in the preseason.  So this is a matchup of 2 of the top 6 teams in pace, which screams OVER.  The OVER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 road games.  The OVER is 9-3 in Bucks last 12 against Western Conference teams.  Take the OVER. 

6* Nuggets/Blazers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Denver +1 

The Key: The Denver Nuggets want revenge after losing in 6 games to the Blazers in the playoffs last year, costing them a trip to the Western Conference Finals.  The Nuggets will probably be the best team in the Western Conference during the regular season and get the top seed again.  They bring almost everyone back and add in Jerami Grant from the Thunder and get Michael Porter Jr. healthy to start the season.  The Blazers lose four key role players and only added Hassan Whiteside and Kent Bazemore of any significance.  And Whiteside is pretty much a cancer and his motivation is a question night in and night out after he got a big contract.  The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Portland.  Take Denver. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks -8.5 

The Key: The Mavericks will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this year.  They get Kristaps Porzingis back from injury and pair him with Luka Doncic.  They have some great role players and added Delon Wright and Seth Curry in the offseason.  Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA.  For the Wizards, they will be one of the worst teams in the league.  Scott Brooks is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA.  Their starting 5 of Ish Smith, Bradley Beal, Riu Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant is one of the worst in the NBA.  They traded Otto Porter Jr. last year, and also lost Jeff Green, Trevor Arizona, Markieff Morris, Dwight Howard, Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis and Tomas Satoransky.  There’s just nothing to like about this team outside Bradley Beal as they are rebuilding.  The Wizards are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 road games.  The Mavericks are 14-4 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 years.  The Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 home meetings.  Take Dallas. 

6* Lakers/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3 

The Key: The Lakers want to make a statement in the opener tonight and let the Clippers know that the city of Los Angeles belongs to them.  LeBron James finally got to take a summer off as the Lakers missed the playoffs, so he will be rejuvenated.  The same goes for Anthony Davis, who is easily the best superstar James has ever played with, which makes sense why they are the favorites to win the NBA title.  And I thought the Lakers did a good job in free agency after missing out on Kawhi Leonard.  They salvaged it by getting key role players in Danny Green, Avery Bradley, Dwight Howard and Jared Dudley.  They have surrounded James and Davis with some great shooting, which is key to winning in the NBA.  The Clippers are without Paul George to start the season and they won’t live up to their massive expectations early on because of it.  Kawhi won’t play big minutes early after the deep playoff run he made to earn the Raptors their first ever NBA title.  Take the Lakers. 

7* Raptors/Warriors Game 6 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 211.5 

The Key: Points are harder to come by the longer a series goes on simply because of teams getting more familiar with one another.  It always favors the defenses.  These teams combined for 197 points in Game 4 and 211 points in Game 5.  And now Kevin Durant is out for the remainder of the series and we still have a total higher than those two results at 211.5 tonight.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Warriors/Raptors Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 214.5 

The Key: The longer a series goes on, the harder it is to score points.  Familiarity makes it easy for the defenses to have the advantage as a series goes on.  We saw that in Game 4 in a 105-92 Raptors win for 197 combined points with a total of 215.  Now we have a near identical total of 214.5 for Game 5 and I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the UNDER.  The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 games off a loss.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 games on 2 days’ rest.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Raptors/Warriors Game 4 *CA$H COW* on Golden State -4.5 

The Key: The series is on the line for the Warriors tonight.  They will come through with a big effort, especially with the return of Klay Thompson to the lineup.  The Raptors are just happy to have won Game 3 and to have reigned home-court advantage no matter what happens in Game 4.  They won’t play with a sense of urgency, and they certainly won’t shoot as well as they did in Game 3, while the Warriors should shoot better.  Take Golden State. 

7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Toronto Raptors +4.5 

The Key: The Warriors are a mash unit right now.  Both Kevin Durant and Kevon Looney are out for Game 3, Klay Thompson is questionable, and Andre Iguodala is likely to play through his calf injury.  In their current state, the Warriors aren’t as good as the Raptors.  Toronto will be hungry to bounce back after letting the Warriors off the hook in Game 2 and blowing a double-digit lead.  The Raptors are 30-19 on the road this year and have been one of the top road teams in the NBA.  The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games off an ATS win.  Take Toronto. 

7* Warriors/Raptors Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 213.5 

The Key: I think we see a much lower scoring contest in Game 2 than we saw in Game 1.  The Warriors and Raptors combined for 227 points in Game 1 led by a great shooting game by Toronto, hitting over 50% of their field goal attempts.  I think after both teams had a couple days to prepare for each other having last played on Thursday it will favor the defenses.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 games off a loss.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Warriors/Raptors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -1 

The Key: The Toronto Raptors won both regular season meetings with the Golden State Warriors by a combined 22 points.  They are feeling good about themselves right now after taking 4 straight from the No. 1 seed in the playoffs in the Milwaukee Bucks.  Kawhi Leonard got the perfect amount of rest in between games with 4 days off.  He should be fresh and ready to go now after showing signs of wearing down a bit against the Bucks.  The length the Raptors possess will pose problems for the Warriors.  They held a potent Bucks offense to just 94, 99 and 102 points in their last 3 games, respectively.  The Warriors aren’t nearly as good without Kevin Durant contrary to popular belief after the Warriors swept the Blazers last series.  But the Blazers aren’t nearly as good as the Raptors, especially defensively.  Take Toronto. 

7* Raptors/Bucks Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -7 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are 22-2 off a loss this season.  They have covered in 19 of those 24 games in this situation as well.  Milwaukee is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in the playoffs with all 5 wins coming by 8 points or more.  This is a big bounce-back spot for the Bucks at home tonight.  Kawhi Leonard is hobbled and it will be asking a lot for him to lead his team to even a competitive showing here tonight.  Take Milwaukee. 

7* Bucks/Raptors Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 217.5 

The Key: Milwaukee and Toronto were tied 96-96 at the end of regulation in Game 3 for 192 combined points. That’s 25.5 less than tonight’s posted total of 217.5.  I believe we are getting a great price with the under in what should be another low-scoring affair.  The UNDER is 13-5 in Bucks last 18 games off a loss.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Raptors last 16 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bucks/Raptors Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -2

The Key: No Analysis Sunday

7* Warriors/Blazers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -2 

The Key:  Must win game for the Blazers.  They’ll get the job done at home in Game 3 and get back in this series.  Take Portland. 

7* Raptors/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -6.5 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this season.  The Raptors had a chance to slow this buzz saw, but let them off the hook in Game 1, losing by 8 after leading most the way.  The Bucks were clearly rusty on a one-week layoff, but they played like themselves in the second half and never looked back.  I think they will be much sharper now, and the Raptors are still feeling a little fatigued from their seven-game series with the 76ers.  The Bucks should roll in Game 2.  Take Milwaukee. 

7* Blazers/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland +7.5 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games when revenging a double-digit road loss.  Look for them to show some resiliency here just as they did all season and to give the Warriors a run for their money tonight.  They didn’t play well at all in Game 1 as they committed 21 turnovers and shot 36% as a team.  They were tired from their 7-game series with the Nuggets.  They should bring a much better effort in Game 2 tonight.  Take Portland. 

7* Raptors/Bucks Game 1 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 218 

The Key: This series certainly has the makings of a defensive battle.  Both the Bucks and Raptors rely so much on their superstars on the offensive end that they have to slow it down and run it through both Giannis and Kawhi, especially the Raptors.  I think nerves will be a factor big-time in Game 1 of this series tonight, which will affect the offenses.  Both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Raptors last 8 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Blazers/Warriors Game 1 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 220.5 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors have come close to or gone over this total in all four meetings this season.  They have combined for 236, 220, 219 and 222 points in their 4 meetings this season.  And dating back further, they have combined for at least 219 points in 8 of their last 9 meetings.  The Warriors scored 118 points against the Rockets in their first game without Durant and moved the ball nicely, getting back to their old ways.  The OVER is 25-8-2 in Blazers last 35 games on one days’ rest.  The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* 76ers/Raptors Game 7 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 209.5 

The Key: After the last two games barely went over the total by 1.5 and 1 point, I think we see a really low scoring game in Game 7 tonight.  With so much at stake with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line, this game will be played close to the vest.  Both teams will be playing nervously, which will affect their offense more than their defense.  They will be laying it all on the line defensively.  Philadelphia is 21-5 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Toronto is 12-4 UNDER In home games off a loss this season.  The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games off a win.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 games on 2 days rest.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Raptors last 12 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Blazers/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -5.5 

The Key: The Nuggets are 39-9 at home this season.  They won by 26 points in Game 5 at home over the Blazers.  While it may not come that easily in Game 7, I think the price is right to lay the short number on the Nuggets at home.  They shoot 48% at home this season and score 113 PPG.  They only two home games they lost in these playoffs they shot 42% against the Spurs and just 34.7% against the Blazers.  So it would take a shooting aberration like that for them to not win and cover this game.  The Nuggets are a deeper, younger team that will not be as fatigued as the Blazers in this long series.  And having their home fans behind them will help them bring the energy they need today to advance to the Western Conference Finals.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Denver. 

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -7 

The Key: The Houston Astros are 36-10 at home this season, including 5-0 in the playoffs where they have outscored their opponents by 68 points total.  The home team has won every game in this series.  The Rockets’ job got a whole lot easier with the injury to Kevin Durant.  Look for them to take advantage and make easy work of the depleted Warriors tonight.  Take Houston. 

7* Nuggets/Blazers Game 6 *BAILOUT* on OVER 215 

The Key: The OVER is 8-1 in the 9 meetings between the Nuggets and Blazers this season.  They have combined for 222 or more points in 8 of those 9 meetings.  This is the gift that keeps on giving, and we’ll continue to ride it until it bucks us.  Take the OVER. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +6 

The Key: Each of the 4 games in this series have gone down to the wire.  All 4 games were decided by 6 points or less.  The Rockets are now 6-2 ATS against the Warriors this season, proving that they are on their level.  And to get over the hump, they need to pull off the upset here in Game 5.  I think they can and I believe they have been playing the smarter basketball in this series, playing more as a team while the Warriors are struggling to find good shots consistently for their stars.  And the Warriors have no bench, which is what is really hurting them.  The Rockets are getting key contributions from Austin Rivers and company off their bench.  Take Houston. 

7* 76ers/Raptors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +6.5 

The Key: Kawhi Leonard is having to do way too much for the Raptors.  I just don’t know if he can keep shouldering this kind of load.  He’s not getting much help.  The 76ers are the more talented team, and I have to think that they are going to do everything in their power to make someone else beat them in this game.  Joel Embiid was sick in Game 4 and a non-factor, but he should be much healthier two days later.  The Raptors don’t have an answer for him when he’s healthy.  Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS off a loss to a division opponent this season.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -1 

The Key: The Houston Rockets are 35-10 at home this season.  They are 4-0 at home in the playoffs and have won by a combined 64 points in those 4 games.  And they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  I like the price here as only 1-point favorites after being 3.5-point home favorites in Game 3.  I think we are getting a confident Rockets team at a cheap price here in what is a must-win Game 4 for them.  Take Houston. 

7* Nuggets/Blazers Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 210.5 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the OVER in this game considering the first three totals in this series were 215 or higher, and Game 4’s total is only 210.5.  Oddsmakers are over adjusting for these teams being tired off a 4 OT game.  Well, that could just as easily affect their defensive effort as their offense.  The OVER is now 6-1 in the 7 meetings between these teams this season with combined scores of 223 or more points in 6 of the 7 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Houston Rockets -3 

The Key: The Rockets are in must-win mode tonight while the Golden State Warriors can afford a loss.  The Rockets played the Warriors well, losing by a combined 10 points in their two meetings at Golden State.  And they won 3 of 4 regular season meetings.  The Rockets are 34-10 at home this year and have a huge home-court advantage, which was on display against the Jazz last series as they won all 3 home meetings with the Jazz by an average of nearly 20 PPG.  Take Houston. 

6* Nuggets/Blazers Game 3 *BAILOUT* on Denver +4

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Bucks/Celtics Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +2

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Raptors/76ers Game 3 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 217 

The Key: After combining for 203 points in Game 1, the Raptors and 76ers combined for just 183 points in Game 2.  And now we’re seeing yet another total set that is too high here at 217 points.  The Raptors are 19-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Blazers/Nuggets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -4 

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have won 4 of 5 meetings against the Blazers this season.  The only one they didn’t win was when they rested their starters in their final meeting this season.  The Blazers can’t stop Nikola Jokic, and now the injury to Jusuf Nurkic is finally starting to rear its ugly head.  Enes Kanter can score, but he is one of the worst defenders in the NBA.  The Nuggets pick the Blazers apart in the pick and roll with Jokic and Jamal Murray.  Denver is 38-8 at home this season.  The Nuggets are 18-4 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season.  The Nuggets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Blazers.  Take Denver. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +5.5 

The Key: Houston is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their 5 meetings with the Warriors this season.  The Rockets also took the Warriors to 7 games last year despite not having Chris Paul for the final 2 games.  And Houston only lost by 4 in Game 1 at Golden State despite shooting 8% worse and having the refs against them.  Houston is 8-0 ATS after losing 2 straight games to an opponent this season.  Take Houston. 

7* 76ers/Raptors Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 220.5 

The Key: These teams combined for just 203 total points in Game 1 despite 45 points from Kawhi Leonard.  The Raptors’ suffocating defense continued as they held the 76ers to 95 points and 39.3% shooting.  Toronto is holding its opponents to just 92.5 PPG and 38.9% from the field through their first 6 postseason games.  The 76ers are 18-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +5.5 

The Key: The Houston Rockets had the Warriors down 3-2 last year in the conference finals.  Then Chris Paul went down with injury, and they lost the final two games.  Now the Rockets are healthy and they’ve been looking forward to this rematch for a year.  The Rockets took out their frustration on the Warriors during the regular season, too.  They won three out of four meetings, and their only loss came by two points.  This is a game they’ll likely win outright, but we’ll take the +5.5 for some insurance.  Take Houston. 

7* Spurs/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio +6

The Key: No analysis Saturday

7* Nuggets/Spurs Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio -3 

The Key: The Spurs have won 14 of their last 15 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They are 33-10 at home this season as well.  This team has too big of a home-court edge to only be laying 3 points at home tonight with their season on the line.  I don’t trust the Nuggets to show up because they aren’t used to close out games and know that they have a home game if needed in Game 7.  Popovich will have his guys ready tonight.  Take San Antonio. 

7* Jazz/Rockets Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 213 

The Key: The Rockets and Jazz have combined for 212 or fewer points in eight of their last 11 meetings, including three of four meetings in this series.  The longer the series goes on, the more familiar they become with one another, making points harder to come by.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs and it’s showing in this series.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Rockets’ last 7 games off a loss.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Rockets last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Rockets last 29 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Raptors UNDER 206 

The Key: The UNDER is 4-0 in the first 4 games in this series.  The Raptors and Magic haven’t once topped 205 combined points, and we have a 206-point total for Game 5 here.  They’ve combined for 205, 193, 191 and 192 points in the first 4 games, respectively.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bucks/Pistons Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit +13 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Pistons tonight.  They go from being 9-point home dogs in Game 3 to 13-point dogs in Game 4, a 4-point adjustment.  This despite the fact that Blake Griffin is expected to play tonight.  The Pistons won’t go down without a fight here.  They have been tough at home all season with a 26-16 record.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Detroit. 

7* Raptors/Magic Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando +5.5 

The Key: The Magic showed a lot of heart in Game 3.  They managed to only lose by 5 despite shooting just 36.2% as a team.  In fact, they’ve kept this series close despite not once shooting better than 40% from the field in a single game.  I have to think they are primed for their best shooting performance of the series yet here in Game 4, which should allow them to stay within this 5.5-point spread and possibly win outright.  Orlando is 12-4 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Orlando. 

7* Nuggets/Spurs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio -3.5 

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs have basically dominated this series.  They have led for basically 11 of the 12 quarters played, with the only exception when Jamal Murray went off for 21 points in the 4th quarter of Game 2 to lead the Nuggets to a comeback victory.  The experience and coaching of the Spurs is winning out over the youth, talent and inexperience of the Nuggets thus far.  Expect more of the same tonight.  After all, the Nuggets are now 0-14 SU in their last 14 trips to San Antonio.  This is a short number for the Spurs to have to cover at home given that trend.  Take San Antonio. 

7* Raptors/Magic Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -5 

The Key: The Toronto Raptors dominated the Magic like they should in Game 2 with a 111-82 victory.  They made their statement, especially Kyle Lowry, who got much more aggressive after failing to score in Game 1.  Look for them to build on that performance and regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 in Orlando Friday.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game between two teams that score 102 or more PPG after 42 or more games, after allowing 90 points or less are 71-31 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Toronto. 

7* Warriors/Clippers Game 3 *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +9 

The Key: The Clippers showed they weren’t going to back down in Game 2.  They erased a 31-point deficit and won outright.  The Warriors were deflated like they’ve never been before in the locker room after the game.  And a big reason for that is the season-ending injury to DeMarcus Cousins.  I think they suffer a hangover effect here from that stunning loss and injury.  I love the price we are getting on the rejuvenated Clippers at home tonight as the Warriors would have to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread.  Golden State is 10-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 27-10 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in 5 straight games this season.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Pistons/Bucks Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Detroit +15 

The Key: Rarely will you see a 15-point spread in the playoffs.  I have to take the points here because of the price.  The public doesn’t want to bet the Pistons without Blake Griffin, but keep in mind they made the playoffs without Griffin down the stretch by winning some must-win games.  And whatever they have to give they will be putting on the court tonight to try and get a win in Game 2.  Look for the Bucks to just go through he motions after everything came easy for them in Game 1.  Bets on dogs of 10 or more points revenging 2 straight loss of 10 points or more, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division opponent are 55-23 ATS since 1996.  Take Detroit. 

7* Pacers/Celtics Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 207 

The Key: After combining for just 158 points in an 84-74 victory by the Celtics in Game 1, it’s going to take a lot for these teams to make up 49 points, which is what they’ll have to do to reach this 207-point total.  I think there’s value with the UNDER in Game 2 as well.  Indiana is 34-13 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 26-8-1 in Pacers last 35 road games against at team that wins more than 60% of its home games.  The UNDER is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings in Boston.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Thunder/Blazers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on OVER 223 

The Key: The Blazers have to go smaller without Jusuf Nurkic.  This has been an OVER series during the regular season.  The Thunder and Blazers combined for 250, 231, 237 and 220 pints in their 4 meetings.  That’s an average of 234.5 PPG.  After a low-scoring affair in Game 1, I look for both offenses to get unleashed tonight.  The Thunder shot just 39.8% overall and 15.2% from 3-point range in Game 1.  The Blazers weren’t much better at 41.9% overall.  I can’t foresee both teams being shut down like that again.  I think it was just playoff nerves in Game 1, and both teams will relax and there will be a lot more offensive flow in Game 2 tonight.  Portland is 12-1 OVER in home games against teams that allow 106 or more PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Take the OVER. 

7* Clippers/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +13.5 

The Key: The Clippers shot 40.4% in Game 1 compared to 49.5% for the Warriors.  That includes 36.7% from 3 compared to 46.7% for the Warriors.  Yet they still only lost by 17.  A slight adjustment in shooting percentage in their favor would certainly allow them to stay within 13.5 points tonight, and I think that is very likely.  The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Thunder/Blazers *Total* Annihilator on OVER 225 

The Key: The Blazers have to go small ball now without Jusuf Nurkic.  That will lend itself to more higher-scoring games in this series with the Thunder, who already like small ball and playing at a fast pace.  And this has been an OVER series this season.  The Thunder and Blazers have combined for 250, 231, 237 and 220 points in their last 4 meetings this season, respectively.  That’s an average of 234.5 PPG.  And we have a 225-point total for Game 1, so I like the price we are getting with the OVER.  Portland is 9-0 OVER in its last 9 home games against teams that average 88 or more shots per game.  The Blazers are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 home games against good offensive teams that score 106 or more PPG.  Take the OVER. 

7* Pacers/Celtics Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -7 

The Key: The Boston Celtics didn’t have the regular season they expected.  But they’re now in the playoffs, and it’s time to turn on the after burners.  They won 4 of their final 5 games during the regular season to clinch home-court advantage over the Pacers, including their 117-97 win in Indiana on April 5th that sealed the deal.  The Celtics are 3-1 against the Pacers this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Indiana.  Their 3 wins have come by a combined 49 points, or by an average of 16.3 PPG.  This is a tired Pacers team that doesn’t have much left in the tank without Victor Oladipo.  The Pacers are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games.  Indiana is 1-8 ATS in road games revenging a home loss this season.  Boston is 10-1 ATS in home playoff games over the last 2 years.  The Celtics are 11-1 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last 2 seasons.  Take Boston. 

7* Magic/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -8.5 

The Key: The Toronto Raptors closed the season by going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their final 8 games overall.  They are playoff-ready now, used to having Marc Gasol in the lineup and playing to his strengths.  Look for them to take care of the Magic by double-digits in Game 1 of this series, similar to what they just did on April 1st when they beat the Magic 121-109 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  But now the Raptors are a full strength basically, and this is a real title contender now.  The Raptors are 8-0 ATS in April home games over the last 2 seasons.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Toronto. 

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio Spurs -14 

The Key: No analysis Wednesday. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Atlanta Hawks -1 

The Key: No analysis Wednesday. 

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit Pistons -10.5 

The Key: The Pistons have dropped 4 straight and now are just one game ahead of both the Heat and Hornets for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They own the tiebreaker over the Heat, so they’re good there, but they don’t over the Hornets.  And the Hornets close with the Cavs and Magic, so they are likely to go 2-0.  That makes these must-win games for the Pistons.  Tonight they host the Grizzlies, who are sitting basically every important player on their team.  They have 8 guys on the injury report missing this game.  You have to think with the importance of this game, Blake Griffin will be making his return tonight for the Pistons, and they’ll be at full strength.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 against the Eastern Conference.  Take Detroit.

7* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Texas Tech +1.5 

The Key: This one is as easy as it gets.  Texas Tech has won 4 of its 5 NCAA Tournament games by double-digits against better completion than Virginia has faced.  And the only exception was beating Gonzaga by 6.  Virginia has trailed in the 2nd half in 4 of their 5 games.  It’s been a minor miracle that they are even here.  Texas Tech is simply too good, too deep and too disciplined to let them off the hook tonight.  The Red Raiders have won 14 of their last 15 games overall while going 13-2 ATS in the process.  Take Texas Tech. 

6* Clippers/Warriors NBA *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +11.5

The Key: No Analysis Sunday.

6* Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5

The Key: No Analysis Sunday.

7* Auburn/Virginia *HEAVY HITTER* on Auburn +6 

The Key: I’ve been a lot more impressed with Auburn than Virginia down the stretch.  The Tigers have won 12 straight games, including their three consecutive victories over three blue bloods in Kentucky, UNC and Kansas.  Virginia barely escaped with wins over Purdue and Oregon the last 2 rounds.  And if they win tonight, it won’t be by more than 6 points.  Take Auburn. 

7* NBA Game of the Week on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Key: The Kings won’t be too interested tonight in beating the Cavaliers, let alone beating them by 10-plus points to cover this spread.  This number is too high.  Especially when you consider the Cavs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 2 days’ rest.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Lipscomb/Texas NIT *CA$H COW* on Texas -1 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns have beaten Colorado and TCU by a combined 27 points in their last 2 games coming in.  Lipscomb had to have a pair of comeback wins over NC State and Wichita State to get here.  I have no doubt the Longhorns are the better team in this matchup and that will show on the court Thursday night as they take down the NIT title.  Take Texas. 

7* Rockets/Clippers NBA TV *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +1 

The Key: The Clippers come in on 2 days’ rest and playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won 13 of their last 15 games overall.  The Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  The Rockets are coming off 3 straight wins and covers, but they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off 3 straight covers as a favorite.  The Clippers have won both meetings with the Rockets this season and are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Celtics/Heat NBA TV *CA$H COW* on Miami +1 

The Key: Miami wants to avenge Monday’s 105-110 loss in Boston in this home and home situation.  The Heat get the Celtics at home tonight and will have their revenge.  The Heat are 25-12 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games off a loss.  The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against Atlantic division teams.  The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Miami. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +5.5 

The Key: The situation is a great one for the Kings tonight.  They want to avenge their 108-119 road loss at Houston on March 30th just a few days ago.  They actually led that game entering the 4th quarter before folding in the closing minutes.  They get the Rockets at home this time around, and the Kings are 23-15 SU & 24-13-1 ATS at home this year.  The Kings are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games playing on one day of rest.  The Rockets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games off an ATS win.  The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  Take Sacramento. 

6* Texas/TCU NIT *CA$H COW* on Texas +2 

The Key: You can bet Texas wants to avenge its two regular season losses to TCU.  The Longhorns lost by 4 on the road and by 13 at home.  They will get their revenge and win Game 3 tonight in the NIT semifinals.  I was very impressed with their 68-55 win over Colorado in the quarterfinals in which they led by 20-plus and were in control the entire way.  Shaka Smart is 15-3 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite as the coach of Texas.  The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.  TCU is 6-14 ATS in Big 12 games this season.  Take Texas. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic +7 

The Key: The Magic are life and death right now with each game.  They only trail the Heat by 0.5 games for the 8th seed in the East.  And they are coming on real strong by winning 7 of their last 8 games coming in.  The Raptors don’t have much to play for the rest of the way.  They are basically locked into the No. 2 seed in the East, unable to catch the Bucks and way ahead of the 76ers.  The situation really favors the Magic.  The Raptors are 0-7 ATS after scoring at least 110 points in 4 straight games this season.  Take Orlando. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana Pacers -5.5 

The Key: The Pacers are tied with the Celtics for the 4th seed in the East.  They will play each other in the first round, so home-court advantage is important.  Especially when the Pacers are 28-10 at home this season.  They will get back on track at home tonight against the Pistons, who are expected to be without their best player in Blake Griffin.  The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Pacers are 14-6 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Pistons are 10-23 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons.  The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team that wins less than 40% of their road games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road meetings with the Pacers.  Take Indiana. 

7* Michigan State/Duke Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke -2 

The Key: I think we’re getting Duke at a great price today because they’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their first 3 NCAA Tournament games, and 7 of their last 8 games overall.  They basically just have to win to cover now.  Duke has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Michigan State.  Take Duke. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Toronto Raptors -10 

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are playing their D-League team tonight.  They will be without LaVine, Dunn, Porter Jr and Markkanen tonight, four players who have been starting for them here down the stretch.  The Raptors should be able to basically just show up and win by double-digits.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Toronto.