Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz +1.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have no reason to show up right now.  They have to be checked out mentally with what has transpired over the past two weeks.  They had a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, but have blown it by going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  They now trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 games for the 8th and final playoff spot with only six games to play and a brutal schedule ahead.  The last straw for them had to be their 106-107 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  I don't even expect them to show up tonight.  The Utah Jazz have been showing up in a big way over the past two months.  They are 17-8 SU & 15-9-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone 3-0 in their last three with a 5-point home win over Oklahoma City, a 20-point win at Minnesota, and a 14-point home win over Denver.  The Jazz have also won three of their last four meetings with Phoenix.  Utah is 17-8-2 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Jazz are 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Phoenix.  Take Utah.

6* Wisconsin/Kentucky Final Four *CA$H COW* on Wisconsin +5

The Key: There aren't many teams out there that have the formula to beat Kentucky.  But I believe Wisconsin has that formula.  They have big guys who can shoot from deep, which forces Kentucky's big men away from the basket.  Kentucky's big men are their biggest strength, but they will be a weakness in trying to guard the Frank Kaminsky's and Sam Dekker's of the world.  Wisconsin is also an elite rebounding team, and it rarely turns the ball over.  So, those are 3 keys that you almost have to have to beat a team like Kentucky.  After all, the Badgers only lost to the Wildcats 74-73 in the Final Four last year.  That loss will have them playing even more motivated basketball in the rematch.  You saw how Notre Dame's offense with four 3-point shooters on the floor at all times gave Kentucky fits last right.  Wisconsin will do the same thing, only it is a better defensive team than Notre Dame.  The Badgers also have the ability to slow down the tempo and play at their pace.  Kentucky is 9-19 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 7-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse this season.  Take Wisconsin.

7* Michigan State/Duke Final Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke -5.5

The Key: Duke has really stood above the competition in a big way so far in the NCAA Tournament.  It beat Robert Morris by 19, San Diego State by 19, Utah by 6, and Gonzaga by 14 to get here.  Even that game against the Utes wasn't all that close as it became close late.  The Blue Devils are now 16-1 in their last 17 games.  Each of their last nine wins have been by 5 points or more as few have even been close, which is indicated by the fact that they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Michigan State hasn't been dominant at all in the tournament as it could have easily lost all four games in which it won.  All four wins came by 7 points or fewer, including an overtime win over Louisville in the Elite 8.  Tom Izzo is 1-8 all-time against Mike Krzyzewski.  These teams played back on November 18th with Duke winning 81-71 on a neutral court.  I just believe that Duke has the most talented starting 5 in the tournament, and its talent will be too much for an undermanned Michigan State squad that is lucky to be here.  Duke is also 10-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Take Duke.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets +13

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, which in turn has forced oddsmakers to jack up the price of backing the Spurs.  This has provided us with ample opportunity to fade them at a great value tonight in taking the Denver Nuggets as double-digit dogs.  The Nuggets are quietly playing some really good basketball down the stretch, going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, yet the betting public still wants nothing to do with them.  These teams have met three times already this year, and while San Antonio is 3-0, all three victories came by 10 points or less.  I believe that will be the case again in the 4th and final meeting.  Denver is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better in the second half of the season this season.  The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take Denver.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: The oddsmakers have really set this total too high tonight between the Pistons and Bulls.  These are two teams that are in no hurry offensively, which is indicated by the fact that Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Detroit ranks 22nd.  It's also a big reason why these teams typically play in lower-scoring games when they meet, especially in comparison to tonight's 197.5-point total.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings.  That stat alone shows how there is plenty of value with this UNDER.  The Bulls are 11-2 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER.

7* Stanford/Miami NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +2

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes have improved to 25-12 on the season thanks to a 7-1 run over their last eight games.  Their only loss came to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament by seven points, which is the same ND team that not only won the conference tournament, but also nearly upset Kentucky in the Elite 8.  I really like the resolve the Hurricanes have shown in coming from behind to beat Richmond and Temple in their last two games.  They have held a rebounding advantage in eight consecutive contests entering this game against Stanford.  The Cardinal were able to play three straight home games to get to the NIT semifinals, I don't believe their path to get here has been as difficult as Miami's.  The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals.  Take Miami.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5

They Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are trying to lock up the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are only a couple victories away from doing so.  Now, they enter this game on three days' rest, which is rare for this late in the year.  You can expect their best effort tonight against Lebron's former team in the Miami Heat.  They want revenge from losing two of the first three meetings of the season to the Heat, both coming on the road.  In their lone home meeting, the Cavs won 113-93, and a similar blowout can be expected tonight.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Cleveland.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks (36-38) still have a lot of work to do.  They have not clinched a playoff spot yet, but more importantly, they don't want to fall to the No. 7 or No. 8 seed.  They are currently No. 6, and if they finish there that means they'll avoid Cleveland and Atlanta in the first round.  They are two games clear of No. 7 Miami.  I look for them to be playing highly motivated basketball at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls, who have all but clinched a first-round series at home.   Milwaukee comes into this game undervalued after losing eight of its last 10, while Chicago is overvalued after winning five of its last six.  Well, the Bucks have played a brutal schedule here of late as each of their last 10 games have come against playoff contenders, including the last two against Golden State and Atlanta.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Bulls are 14-27 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last three years.  The Bulls are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are 2.5 games clear of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.  They aren't safe at all, and they really need to win this game at home against the Dallas Mavericks tonight, so motivation won't be an issue for them.  I question the Mavericks' motivation considering they have lost four of their last five games, and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Dallas is now three games ahead of OKC and three games behind San Antonio for the No. 6 seed, so it pretty much has the No. 7 seed locked up unless the Thunder catch them, which they'll be motivated to do to avoid Golden State in the first round.  Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Mavs are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams that average at least 83 shots per game, or ones that play at a fast pace.  Take this 18-0 ATS Angle backing the Thunder straight to the bank tonight.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* Spurs/Heat NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on San Antonio -7

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs still have their sights set on earning home-court advantage at least for the first round of the playoffs.  They are only 1.5 games out of that coveted 4th spot, and they could move all the way up to No. 2 if things break right down the stretch.  They are certainly playing their best basketball of the season right now with what's at stake.  The Spurs are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Their last three wins have come by 39, 18 and 14 points over three playoff teams in OKC, Dallas and Memphis, respectively.  Now, they take a big step down in competition against the Miami Heat tonight.  The Heat have a long list of injuries and are short-handed right now.  Chris Bosh was already out, but Hassan Whiteside, Luol Deng, Michael Beasley, Chris Andersen and Shabazz Napier are all questionable to play tonight.  The Spurs are 47-22-1 ATS in their last 70 vs. NBA Southeast.  The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Southwest.  Miami is 27-56-4 ATS in its last 87 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers this season, winning by 13.9 points per game in this spot.  Take San Antonio.

7* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple -1.5

The Key: Temple has really impressed me down the stretch.  It was one of the biggest NCAA Tournament snubs this year, and it is playing like it has something to prove thus far in the NIT.  Back-to-back blowout wins over George Washington by 13 and Louisiana Tech by 18 show what kind of passion this team is playing with right now, because those are two quality squads.  But the Owls' great play extends back much further.  They have now gone 14-3 in their last 17 games.  Miami, meanwhile, has been fortunate to reach the semifinals of the NIT.  It has won all three of its games by 7 points or fewer, including a 4-point home win over lowly NC Central.  The Owls are 10-3 ATS following a win by 10 points or more this year.  Take Temple.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and home-court advantage.  They literally have nothing to play for the rest of the way as the Golden State Warriors are running away with home-court advantage throughout in the West, and they are five games clear of Atlanta with nine games to play.  The Milwaukee Bucks (36-37) have plenty to play for.  They want to at least get the No. 6 seed in the East, which would have them avoiding Cleveland in the first round.  They are only two games clear of Miami for the No. 6 seed, so there's still a lot of work to do.  The Hawks have lost four of their last six and appear to just be coasting to the finish line.  Milwaukee is 24-12 ATS in all road games this season.  The Bucks are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers -1.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are stuck in log jam in the Eastern Conference.  There are five teams from No. 7 through No. 11 in the East who are within two games of one another.  The Pacers are currently that No. 11 team, so they are really looking at every game from here on out as a must-win.  They come into this game undervalued due to having lost seven of their last eight games overall, but they had won seven straight prior to this streak, which has mostly come against elite competition.  Dallas isn't playing that well itself right now, having lost three of four while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Pacers will be fresh coming into this game considering they've had two days off since last losing to the Bucks on Thursday.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive unders this season.  The Mavs are 0-9 ATS in road games against up-tempo teams that average at least 83 shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games overall.  Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the Pacers straight to the bank tonight.  Take Indiana.

7* Duke/Gonzaga Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga +3

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs are 35-2 on the season.  Their two losses this year were very close as they lost by just 3 points to BYU and in overtime to Arizona on the road.  They have dominated thus far in the NCAA Tournament, winning all three games by double-digits with a 10-point win over North Dakota State, a 19-point win over Iowa and a 12-point win over UCLA.  What I love about the Bulldogs is that they have no weaknesses.  They are very strong on the inside, which will be key in this game to stop Duke's Jahlil Okafor.  They have great guard play led by Kevin Pangos, and they have a shutdown defender in Gary Bell Jr.  The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in road games against teams that outscore the opposition by 12 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Take Gonzaga.

7* Elite 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are playing for their head coach right now.  Mike Brey lost his mother on the day of their Round of 32 win over Butler.  The Fighting Irish laid it all on the line for him once they found out after the game, and they responded with an 81-70 win over Wichita State in the Sweet 16.  But this is a team that has been playing well for quite some time now.  They have reeled off 8 straight wins, which includes victories over Louisville, Duke, UNC and Wichita State all by 8 points or more, and all away from home.  Notre Dame is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, which is the type of team it's going to take to beat Kentucky.  It shoots 51.1% from the field and 39.2% from 3-point range as a team while averaging over 78 points per game.  The Fighting Irish can make the the Wildcats take one of their big guys out because they play essentially four guards and small forwards alongside center Zach Auguste.  They almost at all times have four players who can shoot the 3-pointer on the floor.  This is the toughest matchup the Wildcats have had perhaps all season.  Notre Dame is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams that shoot at least 45% and allow their opponents to shoot 42% or less.  It has great against some of the best teams in college basketball this season, and I look for Saturday's Elite 8 showdown to be no different.  Take Notre Dame.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Key: Both the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets will be playing the second of a back-to-back Saturday.  The difference is that the Hawks are the deeper team, and also that the Hornets went to overtime last night against Washington.  This will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Hornets, while it will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Hawks.  Atlanta is 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 road games.  The Hawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Atlanta is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Charlotte is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.  The Hawks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Charlotte.  Take Atlanta.

6* Blazers/Suns NBA Friday Night 'Bailout' on Phoenix +1

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have won four of their last five games overall to pull within three games of Oklahoma City for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.  They are obviously in must-win mode from here on out, otherwise they'll fall just short of making the playoffs for a second straight year.  Portland is not playing well coming in and should not be favored in this game.  It has lost five of its last six games overall.  It is just 17-18 on the road this season as well.  The Suns have had the Blazers' number in winning seven of the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series.  The Suns are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 9-1 ATS versus excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or better over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Phoenix is 20-8-2 ATS in the last 30 home meetings.  Take Phoenix.

7* UCLA/Gonzaga Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -8.5

The Key: The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season.  This is the best team that Mark Few has ever had.  They throttled Iowa 87-68 in the Round of 32, and I believe another beat down of UCLA is in store.  After all, the Zags were the only team to hand UCLA a home loss this season, and they did so impressively.  They won 87-74 at UCLA back on December 13th.  The Bruins are clearly better now than they were at the beginning of the season, but I don't believe they are good enough to stay within single-digits of the Zags on a neutral court this time around.  Gonzaga is outscoring the opposition by a ridiculous 18 points per game this year.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in road games after five straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last three years.  Take Gonzaga.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers have quietly been a very profitable bet at the pay window here of late.  They have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They went on the road last time out and beat Denver handily 99-85.  They have now won three of their last five games outright, which includes a 94-83 home win over Detroit and a 97-81 home victory over New York.  The Clippers come into this game getting too much respect for the books due to their five-game winning streak, which included a 31-point win at New York last time out.  The 76ers are 11-1 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS in home games revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more this season.

7* Xavier/Arizona West Region *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -11

The Key: The Arizona Wildcats should have been a No. 1 seed.  They have played as well as anyone outside of Kentucky this season.  In fact, the Wildcats' three losses this season have been by a combined 9 points.  They have won 13 straight coming into this one with 11 of those coming by double-digits.  That includes a 21-point win over Texas Southern in the opener and a 15-point win over Ohio State last round.  Xavier doesn't belong in the Sweet 16.  It was gifted its spot in the Sweet 16 thanks to drawing a tired Ole Miss team and a Georgia State team that pulled off a miracle upset over Baylor the round prior.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 against teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game.  Take Arizona.

6* Wichita State/Notre Dame Midwest Region *CA$H COW* on UNDER 138.5

The Key: This is a classic matchup off offensive versus defense.  Wichita State is one of the best teams in the country in terms of defensive efficiency, while Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the land in terms of offensive efficiency.  I look for the defense to win out in this one, especially considering both teams have had ample time to prepare for one another.  Wichita State only gives up 56.7 points on 39.7% shooting this season.   Notre Dame has really stepped up its game defensively of late, limiting seven of its last eight opponents to 67 or fewer points.  The Irish combined with Northeastern for 134 points in the opener and with Butler for 131 points last round in overtime.  Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams with a total of 130 to 139.5 (Wichita State) in a game involving two slow-down teams that average 55 or fewer shots per game after 15-plus game, after a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-point shots are 48-13 (78.7%) since 1997.  Take the UNDER.

7* CBI Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +1

The Key: Louisiana-Monroe (23-12) has saved its best basketball for last.  It has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall with its only loss coming to a very good Georgia Southern team by a final of 43-44 as 3-point underdogs in the Sun Belt Tournament.  It beat Eastern Michigan 71-67 before going on the road and topping Mercer 71-69 in the opening two rounds of the CBI, pulling off upsets as underdogs in both games.  Another outright win as a dog is in store here.  The Warhawks are 13-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game.  Vermont (20-13) is just 7-9 on the road this season.  The Catamounts are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.  The Warhawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.  LA-Monroe is 8-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics UNDER 203

The Key: Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are fighting to make the playoffs right now.  Boston is currently the No. 8 team in the East, just one-half game ahead of Charlotte.  It has three teams within 1.5 games of it for the 8th spot.  Miami is currently the 7th team in the East, just one game ahead of Boston.  It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  Miami and Boston have combined for 197 or fewer points in five straight meetings, averaging 181.6 combined points per game in those five contest.  The total has been set at 203 tonight, meaning that we're receiving roughly 21 points of value on the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Nets/Hornets UNDER 197.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are both barely on the outside looking in when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Hornets trail the Celtics by a half-game for the No. 8 seed, while the Nets are 1.5 games back.  It's safe to say that both of these teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  That's why I like the UNDER in this game tonight.  I believe there is value here because the last four meetings have all seen 201 or more combined points.  Charlotte is shooting just 39.2 percent while averaging 88.8 points in its last five games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 UNDER in its last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-1 UNDER in its last five games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Key: This is the ultimate spot to fade the Golden State Warriors.  They have the No. 1 seed in the West pretty much wrapped up at 57-13 on the season, so I question their motivation coming into this one, especially with how tired they are right now.  The Warriors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This will also be their 8th game in the past 12 days.  This team is simply running on fumes right now.  Portland, meanwhile, comes in on two days' rest so it will be fresh and ready to go.  It will also be motivated to put an end to a four-game losing streak, all of which have come on the road.  The Blazers are 28-6 at home this season.  The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Take Portland.

6* Miami/Richmond NIT *CA$H COW* on Richmond -2.5

The Key: Richmond has saved its best basketball for last.  It is now 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games coming into this NIT quarterfinals showdown with Miami.  It has beaten St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's and UMass on the road, while also beating both George Washington, VCU and Arizona State at home.  Its only loss during this span came to VCU by a final of 67-70 in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.  The Spiders are 11-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Take Richmond.

6* Monday NIT *CA$H COW* on Illinois State +3.5

The Key: The Illinois State Redbirds might be the most underrated team in the NIT.  They were the third-best team in the Missouri Valley, which is saying something considering they reside with Northern Iowa and Wichita State in that conference.  They have gone 22-12 on the season.  One of those wins actually came against the team they'll be playing tonight in Old Dominion, which is simply overvalued due to its 25-7 record while playing in weak Conference USA.  Illinois State beat Old Dominion 64-45 on a neutral court back on November 23rd.  Now, the Redbirds are actually catching points in the rematch when they shouldn't be.  Old Dominion is 2-10 ATS off five straight games where it allowed 60 points or less.  The Redbirds are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Illinois State is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. C-USA opponents.  The Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Old Dominion is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. MVC opponents.  Take Illinois State.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets -4

The Key: The Booklyn Nets (29-39) trail the Boston Celtics (30-39) by a half-game and the Charlotte Hornets by a full game for the No. 8 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Obviously, the Nets are going to be motivated, and that motivation here of late has led to some promising results.  Indeed, the Nets have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Cleveland, which is arguably the best team in the NBA right now.  The Celtics have dropped three straight following their 97-105 home loss to Detroit yesterday.  Now, the Celtics will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days, which is a very tough spot.  The Nets check in on one days' rest following their 12-point win at Indiana on Saturday.  The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix Suns +4

The Key: The Phoenix Suns still find themselves right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.  They trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by just 2.5 games for the 8th and final spot.  They have won three straight coming in with a 13-point home win over New York, a 2-point home win over New Orleans, and a 15-point road win at Houston.  They are playing great right now, which is why they should not be home underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  Dallas is 3-14 ATS off a combined score of 205 or more points this season.  Phoenix is 25-11 ATS off a road win over the last two years.  The Mavs are 0-7 ATS in road games against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Suns are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix.

7* SDSU/Duke South Region *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +9

The Key: San Diego State (27-8) dominated St. John's in a 76-64 victory in the Round of 64.  Its offense really got going as four players scored in double figures, which is a promising sign for an Aztecs' team not known for their offense.  Look for the Aztecs to show the Blue Devils a thing or two about defense in this one.  They rank 2nd in the country in scoring defense at 53.5 points per game.  The Blue Devils are a great offensive team, but they don't play much defense.  This number has been inflated due to Duke's 29-point win over lowly Robert Morris last round, but now they take a huge step up in competition.  San Diego State is 7-0 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season.  Take San Diego State.

6* Jazz/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on UNDER 194.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been UNDER machines ever since trading Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City and inserting the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  They are 14-2 UNDER in their last 16 games overall despite having each of their last 15 totals set at 192.5 points or lower.  So, this 194.5-point total tonight between the Jazz and the Warriors is the highest a total has been set in a Utah game since February 11th.  There is clearly some value here with this UNDER today folks, especially with the Warriors missing one of their best players in Klay Thompson.  The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

6* Ohio State/Arizona West Region *CA$H COW* on Ohio State +9

The Key: Ohio State might be the best double-digit seed in the entire tournament.  There's no question that it should have been better than a No. 10 seed, which is a bad break for Arizona having to play the Buckeyes already in the Round of 32.  I look for D'Angelo Russel and company to give the Wildcats a run for their money.  The Buckeyes come in with a ton of confidence after gutting out a 75-72 overtime victory over VCU in the Round of 64.  The Buckeyes are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  After failing to cover against Texas Southern, the Wildcats are now 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.  Take Ohio State.

7* UAB/UCLA South Region *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA -6

The Key: UCLA is coming off a huge upset win over No. 6 SMU thanks to the hot shooting of Bryce Alford, who connected on 9-of-11 from 3-point range for 27 points.  Look for the rest of these UCLA players to contribute against much less competition in UAB (20-15) today.  The Bruins are now 10-4 in their last 14 games overall.  Two of their losses came to Arizona by 10 points or less, and the other two were on the road at Cal and at Stanford by two points.  It's safe to say that they are playing their best basketball of the season.  Iowa State gave away the game to UAB in the opener.  Iowa State was a 14-point favorite in that game, and UCLA is only a 6-point favorite in this game.  I believe UCLA and Iowa State are similar teams talent-wise, and thus this spread being eight points less shows that there's value with the Bruins.  The Bruins are 13-2 ATS off a game where they made 50% or better from 3-point range.  UCLA is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take UCLA.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are pretty much in must-win mode right now at 27-39 on the season.  They trail the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference by 2.5 games, but there's a pack of teams right around there that could get in.  They will need a big finish, and it starts tonight with a home game against Milwaukee.  The Nets will also be motivated after losing the first two meetings with the Bucks this season with one in overtime and one by 6 points.  Milwaukee is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  The Bucks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NCAA Midwest Region *CA$H COW* on Maryland -4

The Key: Maryland was one of the best teams in the country this season and should have gotten better than a No. 4 seed.  It went 27-6 on the year, which included non-conference wins over Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Arizona State with all three of those games coming on the road.  The Terrapins won six games in Big Ten play against NCAA Tournament teams, including a win over Wisconsin, and two victories over Michigan State.  Valparaiso played about as easy a schedule as you can this season.  Its non-conference slate couldn't have been any weaker, and the Horizon League was not good.  Maryland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, and 5-0 ATS in its last five following a cover.  Valpo is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games, and 0-4 ATS in its last four against the Big Ten.  Take this combined 19-0 ATS angle in favor of the Terrapins straight to the bank tonight.  Take Maryland.

7* NCAA East Region *HEAVY HITTER* on UC-Irvine +8

The Key: The UC-Irvine Anteaters opened my eyes in the non-conference schedule.  They only lost by 17 to Arizona on the road, by 3 at St. Mary's, and by 2 at Oregon in overtime.  They also beat Bradley and Wisconsin-Green Bay at home.  Louisville is an excellent defensive team, but it has been terrible on offense this season since Chris Jones was suspended.  The Cardinals rank 211th in the country in field goal percentage at 42.9%.  Irvine is 7-0 ATS against good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  The Anteaters are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Irvine is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UC-Irvine.

6* NCAA East Region *CA$H COW* on Michigan State -6

The Key: The Spartans always seem to get better as the season goes on under head coach Tom Izzo.  This season has been no exception.  Michigan State has gone 8-3 in its last 11 games overall with two of those losses to Wisconsin.  They lost by 7 at Wisconsin and in overtime to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship.  They also lost in overtime to Minnesota during this stretch.  Georgia doesn't have many quality wins this season at all.  Its best non-conference wins came against Colorado, Seton Hall and Kansas State, three teams that did not make the tournament.  Its only two wins against tournament teams came against Ole Miss (twice) in conference play.  Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss to a conference opponent this season.  The Spartans are 8-2 ATS following a loss this year, and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.  Take Michigan State.

6* NCAA West Region *CA$H COW* on Arkansas -7.5

The Key: The Razorbacks play a brand of basketball that yields blowouts.  They pressure you defensively full court, and they look to run every chance they get.  That's bad news for Wofford, which has not played well against better competition this season.  They lost by 33 to West Virginia, by 29 to Duke, and by 15 to Stanford against comparable teams to Arkansas.  The Terriers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against SEC opponents.  Arkansas went 26-8 this season with three of its losses coming to Kentucky.  Take Arkansas.

6* NCAA South Region *CA$H COW* on UCLA +4

The Key: UCLA is going to be playing with a chip on its shoulder due to all of the negative publicity it has received coming into this game.  Many feel that the Bruins do not belong in the tournament with their overall body of work, but there's no denying they have played like they belong here down the stretch.  UCLA is 9-4 in its last 13 games overall with two losses to Arizona, both of which were decided by 10 points or less as it played the Wildcats right down to the wire.  It also lost by 2 on the road to Cal and by 2 on the road to ASU for its other two defeats.  SMU played in a weak conference and probably wouldn't have done any better than UCLA's 20-13 record had it played UCLA's schedule.  The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning records.  Take UCLA.

7* NCAA South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +14

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones are a team that loves to play from behind.  They are inconsistent and cannot put away teams early.  They have actually trailed by double-digits at some point in each of their last five games, but have gone 5-0.  While they may not trail for long in this game, I don't expect them to beat UAB by a wide margin.  The Blazers have only been beaten by this margin twice all season, and those came against Wisconsin and UNC.  Their last six losses have come by 4 points or less or in overtime.  They haven't lost a game by this margin in 2015.  UAB is 10-1 ATS against teams with winning records after 15 or more games this season.  Take UAB.

7* Boise State/Dayton First Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Dayton -4

The Key: Dayton went on a big run in the NCAA Tournament last year all the way to the Elite 8.  They shouldn't have had to play in the First Four this year with a 25-8 record, but that's the card they were dealt.  They have to be OK with it considering they become the first team since 1987 to actually play at home in the NCAA Tournament.  The Flyers simply do not lose at home.  They are 21-0 at home in their last 21 games at Dayton Arena.  They are 16-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game.  Take Dayton.

6* Vanderbilt/St. Mary's NIT *CA$H COW* on St. Mary's -2.5

The Key: The St. Mary's Gaels did not make the NCAA Tournament like they envisioned, but they are more than happy to be playing in the NIT with a 21-9 record.  I like their chances of advancing as only 2.5-point home favorites over Vanderbilt in the opening round tonight.  The Gaels have gone 14-4 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game.  They play a Vanderbilt team that is just 5-9 in all road games this year.  St. Mary's is 14-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Gaels are 9-1 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Because they were blown out badly by Portland last time out, the Gaels come into this game undervalued.  Take St. Mary's.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189

The Key: When you look at the head-to-head history of this series between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers, it's easy to see that the oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls and Pacers have combined for 182, 182, 189, 166, 170, 204, 187, 171 and 189 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  As you can see, eight of those nine meetings saw 189 or fewer combined points.  I'll take this 8-1 (89%) trend backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* UTEP/Murray State NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on UTEP +5.5

The Key: Murray State has the better record here at 27-5 over UTEP's 22-10 mark, but that's the reason I believe the Racers are overvalued heading into this one.  The Racers played a much weaker schedule than the Miners did this season, and they really didn't have many signature wins all year.  They lost at home to Houston, while also getting blown out on the road by 27 at Xavier and by 35 on a neutral court to Valpo.  UTEP's four non-conference losses this season were by 7 points or fewer, including a 55-60 loss to Arizona.  The Miners shut teams down defensively, which is why they are 9-1 ATS against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last two years.  Take UTEP.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER 203

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight in a matchup between Orlando and Houston.  These teams played in an absolute shootout in their first meeting of the year, a 120-113 home victory for the Magic on January 14th.  I look for this game to play out similarly.  Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 99.2 possessions per game as it prefers to run teams to death.  Orlando has given up 100-plus points in 13 of its last 17 games overall.  The Magic are 15-3 OVER off a combined score of 225 or more points over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 179.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league right now.  They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall.  The reason for their success is defense.  They have allowed 91 or less points in eight straight coming in.  They have also given up 91 or fewer in 11 of their last 12.  Charlotte is not a very good offensive team, but it does get after it defensively.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in 7 of its last 11 games.  The Hornets are 7-0 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 UNDER in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take this 23-0 angle backing the under straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Wizards -2

The Key: The Washington Wizards have turned things around here of late.  They have won three straight games in blowout fashion over Charlotte by 26, Memphis by 20 and Sacramento by 16.  They should have an excellent chance to continuing this recent roll due to their current status physically; this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Portland is playing well having won eight of its last nine, but it is in a difficult spot here tonight.  It is playing its 3rd game in 4 days and the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The home team is 9-3 SU in the last 12 meeting.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves are way undervalued right now due to their 14-50 record on the season.  They have also failed to cover the spread in three straight tough road games at LA Clippers, Phoenix and Oklahoma City.  They lost all three of those games by 14 points or less.  I like backing them now off three straight ATS non-covers as this number has been inflated to 12.5.  San Antonio is getting too much love from the books due to covering five of its last seven ATS.  Minnesota is 27-12 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.  San Antonio is 2-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Spurs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.  Take Minnesota.

7* Michigan State/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State +7

The Key: Tom Izzo almost always has his Michigan State teams playing their best basketball down the stretch of the season.  The 2014-15 campaign has been no exception.  The Spartans have won four straight and eight of 10 heading into the Big Ten Championship.  They knocked off arguably the second and third-best teams in the Big Ten in Maryland and Ohio State, respectively, to get here.  Now, I look for them to give the best team in the Big Ten in Wisconsin a run for its money in the championship game.  The Badgers are 0-6 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.  Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Sacramento Kings +9

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

7* Sun Belt Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia State -5.5

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* Pistons/Blazers NBA "BAILOUT" on Portland -8.5

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

7* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +1

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* Atlantic 10 Tournament *CA$H COW* on Rhode Island -1

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Norfolk State -6

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* SEC Tournament *CA$H COW* on Arkansas -6

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* MAC Tournament *CA$H COW* on Central Michigan PK

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

7* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma -4
The Key: No Analysis Today on Vacation Be Back Sunday!

6* Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW on St. Bonaventure -3

The Key: No Analysis Today on Vacation Be Back Sunday!

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Illinois -3.5

The Key: No Analysis Today on Vacation Be Back Sunday!

7* Rockets/Blazers Western Conference "BAILOUT" on Portland -2.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are back to having one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have gone 26-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game.  Rarely will we get the chance to back them as only 2.5-point favorites.  They have won five of their last six games overall, which includes victories over San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers and Dallas.  The home team has won four of the past five meetings between these teams.  Take Portland.

6* ACC Tournament *CA$H COW* on NC State -3

The Key: The NC State Wolfpack have played their way into the NCAA Tournament with a 19-12 record.  They have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall.  They went on the road and beat Louisville 74-65, topped UNC on the road 58-46, beat Clemson 66-61 on the road, and rolled Syracuse 71-57 at home in their four most impressive games during this six-game stretch.  Pitt has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games with losses to Wake Forest, Miami and Florida State.  I'll back the hot team against the cold one with this small number.  The Panthers are 18-37-3 ATS in their last 58 games overall.  The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The Wolfpack are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.  Take NC State.

6* Mountain West Tournament *CA$H COW* on Nevada +9

The Key: This is a very big number for the UNLV Rebels to be laying today.  This has been a very closely-contested season series, and I look for this game to go right down to the wire as well.  Nevada won 64-62 at UNLV as 9.5-point underdogs on January 7th.  UNLV got its revenge with a 67-62 road win at Nevada as 4-point favorites on January 27th.  In fact, each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 5 points or less.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to UNLV.  Take Nevada.

6* BYU/Gonzaga WCC Championship *CA$H COW* on Gonzaga -7.5

The Key: Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Gonzaga (31-2) as only a 7.5-point favorite this season.  I'll take advantage tonight and take the Bulldogs in the WCC Championship Game against BYU (25-8).  The Bulldogs are going to be out for serious revenge after losing to the Cougars 70-73 at home less than two weeks ago on February 28th.  The Cougars needed that game to boost their chances of making the NCAA Tournament, but now they're in regardless.  The Bulldogs are still fighting for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.  BYU is 1-8 ATS versus good teams that outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Cougars are 0-7 ATS as a neutral court underdog over the past three years.  The favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take this combined 24-2 system straight to the bank tonight.  Take Gonzaga.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Mavericks OVER 200

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have gone 11-0 to the UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Obviously, the books are now forced to set this total lower than it should be, and therefore there's some value in backing the OVER tonight.  The Cavaliers are also coming off a low-scoring affair against the Suns last time out, which only adds to the value.  Dallas and Cleveland are tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 107.4 points per 100  possessions.  Dallas has averaged 104.4 points on the season, while Cleveland has averaged 102.5, which would be higher if not for all the injuries earlier in the season.  Dallas is 10-1 OVER as a home underdog over the last two years.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

The Key: I look for the Milwaukee Bucks to continue their dominant ways at home.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 home games overall.  The only reason they are just a 1.5-point favorite here is because they have lost four of their last five coming in, but all four of those losses were on the road.  The Pelicans come in getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers due to winning seven of their last nine, but most of those wins came against a weak schedule.  I'll back the home team laying the small number.  Take Milwaukee.

7* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois +6.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is red hot coming into the MAC Tournament and should not be an underdog to Akron in the opening round.  The Huskies are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight.  That includes two close road losses to Central Michigan and Western Michigan by a combined six points.  Akron is playing terrible coming in.  It has gone 1-6 in its last seven games overall, and now it is dealing with some key injuries.  Its top two scorers in Pat Forsythe and Noah Robotham are out today after missing the past couple games due to injury.  The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take Northern Illinois.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Maryland -2

The Key: Maryland (25-5) should be a much heavier favorite tonight against Nebraska (13-16).  The Huskers have essentially packed it in already this season and are simply looking ahead to the Big Ten Tournament.  That has been evident as they have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall while getting blown out over and over again.  They have lost six of their last seven games by double-digits, rarely being competitive.  Nebraska is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.  Take Maryland.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nets UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have given up 87 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are allowing 81.4 points in their last five contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last eight games overall.  As good as they are defensively, they are equally terrible on offense.  Utah has scored 97 or fewer points in eight of its last nine contests.  Take the UNDER.

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Utah State PK

The Key: The Utah State Aggies are 18-11 on the season, including 11-4 at home.  I like their chances of winning this game today against Colorado State at home.  Colorado State is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons.  Take Utah State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +11

The Key: The Cavaliers are on the second of a back-to--back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This is a great situation to fade them, especially with playing the Hawks last night, who are their biggest defenders in the East.  Take the Suns.

7* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State -6

The Key: The Missouri Tigers (9-21) against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-18) isn't a game most will be interested in.  But I believe there's some value here in backing the Bulldogs as 6-point home favorites on Senior Day.  Missouri is 1-13 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 14.1 points per game.  Take Mississippi State.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech +15

The Key: The Baylor Bears are already in the NCAA Tournament.  They won't be motivated at all to beat the Texas Tech Red Raiders tonight.  That's why I'll side with Texas Tech catching 15 points.  The Red Raiders are actually playing well right now as they're coming off a win over Oklahoma State.  Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season after 15+games over the last 3 seasons.  Take Texas Tech.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Indiana Pacers -6

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a big win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.  The Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go.  They are fighting to make the Eastern Conference Playoffs and will be highly motivated for a win as a result.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS off four straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  Take Indiana.

7* American Athletic *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +7

The Key: The UConn Huskies are simply overvalued and have been all year after winning the NCAA Tournament last season.  They should not be laying 7 points to the Memphis Tigers tonight.  Memphis is 25-11 ATS against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game since 1997.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  UConn is 2-9 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the past two seasons.  The Huskies are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Memphis.

6* Thunder/Bulls TNT "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: The Bulls and Thunder are both battling huge injuries right now.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and playing with a banged up Russell Westbrook.  The Bulls are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  This has been a low-scoring series in the past, and it will continue in 2014-15 due to these injuries.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 189 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  They have averaged 184.2 combined points per game in these six contests.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Thunder's last 10 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take the UNDER.

7* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State -7

The Key: Off four straight losses, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game to TCU.  They certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight due to the situation.  One of those four losses came to TCU by a final of 55-70 on the road on February 14th.  Well, the Cowboys were coming off back-to-back huge wins over Kansas and Baylor, so it was a clear letdown spot for them.  The Horned Frogs will have their attention 100% the second time around.  The Cowboys are 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  Their last four wins in the series have come by 22, 32, 17 and 18 points.  Oklahoma State is 11-4 at home this season, while TCU is just 2-7 in true road games.  The Cowboys are 36-12-3 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take Oklahoma State.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers UNDER 190

The Key: The New York Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  They also rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  That's not a great combo for scoring points, but it's an excellent one for backing UNDERS.  The Pacers do not look to push the tempo, either, ranking 20th in pace at 95.6 possessions per game.  The Pacers also rank just 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  The last two meetings between these teams have been low scoring with 185 and 178 combined points.  I look for this one to be played at a snail's pace and to easily stay under the 190-point total.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Knicks last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in home games after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on St. Joe's -1.5

The Key: Both the LaSalle Explorers (15-14) and St. Joseph's Hawks (12-16) have been eliminated from the NCAA Tournament barring winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament.  While St. Joe's has continued to fight, LaSalle has not played well ans appears to be looking ahead to the conference tournament.  The Hawks have lost won three of their last seven with two of their losses coming at Dayton (64-68) and at home against Richmond (57-63).  They have beaten George Mason and Rhode Island at home, as well as an impressive 82-71 win at UMass on the road in their second-to-last game.  LaSalle is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes ugly road losses to Saint Louis (64-68) and Fordham (48-63).  The Hawks are 9-4 at home and have been a completely different team on their home floor.  They will be motivated to win this last one for their seniors on Senior Night.  St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Explorers are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 vs. Atlantic 10.  The Hawks are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  St. Joe's is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games following a S.U. loss.  Take St. Joe's.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -1

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are without three key players right now.  They are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  They are also without key role player Taj Gibson (10.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg).  They have struggled here of late going 1-2 in their last three games, which includes a pair of double-digit home losses to Charlotte and the LA Clippers.  Washington just recently got back Bradley Beal from an 8-game absence, and the Wizards promptly put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 99-95 victory over the Pistons.  Now at full strength, the Wizards will be a tough out going forward.  They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 visits to Chicago.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings as well.  Take Washington.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -3

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers (19-10) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They could use a signature win, and a victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes (19-10) would help tonight.  After all, the Hoosiers have been nearly unbeatable at home this season.  They are 15-2 inside Assembly Hall, outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game.  The Hoosiers have really had the Hawkeyes' number in recent years, going 3-0 in their last three meetings, including back-to-back home victories by a combined 20 points.  Indiana is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take Indiana.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They used a lot of energy coming back from 26 points down to beat Boston yesterday.  The Nets come into this game on a days' rest after beating the Mavericks by 10 on the road Saturday.  They will be the fresher team in this one.  The Warriors will be playing their 10th road game in an 11-game stretch and could not be more tired.  They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their first nine road games during this stretch.  The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and playing some of their best ball of the season.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against a team that wins 60% or more of its games.  Take the Nets.

6* Virginia/Syracuse ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +5.5

The Key: Virginia has been way overvalued in recent weeks since losing its best player in Justin Anderson.  He is the second-leading scorer on the team at 13.4 points per game, and he shoots 48% from the field, 48% from 3-point range and 80% from the free throw line.  The Cavaliers have gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and appear to be overvalued again here tonight as 5.5-point favorites at Syracuse.  There's no question the Orange are battle-tested coming into this one as they've played Duke, Louisville, Pitt, Notre Dame and Duke in their last five games overall.  They did lose to Duke twice, and to Pitt by 4, but they upset Louisville 69-59 at home and Notre Dame 65-60 on the road.  Without their best 3-point shooter in Anderson, the Cavaliers are going to struggle from outside.  Syracuse forces teams to make outside shots to beat them with their patented 2-3 zone.  The Cavaliers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.  Take Syracuse.

7* Michigan State/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State +9

The Key: The Spartans just get better as the season goes on every year.  2014-15 has been no exception.  They have won four of their last five games overall, which includes three straight road wins at Michigan, Illinois and Northwestern.  Their only loss during this stretch came in overtime against Minnesota.  The Badgers are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat Penn State by 8 and Minnesota by 10 while also losing to Maryland by 6.  The Spartans are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 Big Ten road games.  You won't get them at a better value than 9-point underdogs.  Take Michigan State.

6* Arkansas/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +14.5

The Key: Without question, the Arkansas Razorbacks (23-5) are the second-best team in the SEC.  This may be the best team that Arkansas has had since the 1994 National Championship team as well.  They have as good a chance to beat Kentucky as anyone this season.  I look for them to keep this game much closer than this 14.5-point spread would indicate they will.  Arkansas is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Kentucky.  It clearly has John Calipari and the Wildcats figured out over the past couple seasons.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Arkansas.

7* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama +5.5

The Key: At 17-11 on the season, the Alabama Crimson Tide need a big finish if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They are playing much better of late having won two of their last three over Auburn and South Carolina with their only loss coming by a single point to Georgia (65-66) in overtime.  The Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from a 68-76 home loss to Vanderbilt on February 14th exactly two weeks ago.  The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  The road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS L6 meetings since 2010.  Take Alabama.

6* Northern Iowa/Wichita State MVC *CA$H COW* on Northern Iowa +6

The Key: The Northern Iowa Panthers (27-2) haven't been getting any respect all season, which is evident by their 15-8 ATS mark this year.  They especially haven't gotten any respect on the road, where they have gone 11-1 ATS in their 12 lined games away from home.  They aren't getting any respect here as 6-point road dogs to Wichita State with first place in the MVC on the line.  I look for them to upset the Shockers to earn that respect, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take Northern Iowa.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +4

The Key: Despite over 70% of the betting public being on the Cavaliers tonight, this line has actually dropped from -5 to -3.5 as of this writing.  The smart money is clearly on the Pacers in this one.  The Cavaliers are overvalued here due to having won 18 of their last 20.  Well, they couldn't be in a worse spot tonight.  They are primed for a letdown following their big win over the Warriors last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pacers come in fully rested having last played on Tuesday.  Indiana is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall, which includes home wins over Cleveland and Golden State.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Take Indiana.

7* Warriors/Cavaliers TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3.5

The Key: The Cavaliers are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall.  They have won all 17 games by at least 5 points, and 11 of those by double-digits.  To say they are rolling would be a massive understatement.  The Warriors have continued their winning ways as well, but they have been overvalued here of late and continue to be tonight.  Golden State is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It has gone on the road and lost to Atlanta and Indiana, while also barely beating Philadelphia by 5 and Minnesota by 3 during this stretch.  The Cavs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes, proving that they are arguably the best team in the NBA against what is the best conference.  Cleveland is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take Cleveland.

6* Minnesota/Michigan State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +8.5

The Key: The Golden Gophers are in must-win mode right now if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  Their record is not impressive at 16-12 on the season, but it's evident that this team is better than that record.  The Gophers have suffered eight of their 12 losses by single-digits this season, including a whopping seven losses by 6 points or less.  Michigan State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  It is 5-2 in Big Ten play at home, but only one of those wins was a blowout.  It needed overtime to beat Michigan, lost to Illinois and Maryland at home, while also barely beating Northwestern by 7, Penn State by 6, and Ohio State by 3.  Take Minnesota.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns -6

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have absolutely quit on head coach Brian Shaw.  They are 2-16 in their last 18 games overall, and it has been even worse since the All-Star Break.  They have lost all three games since the break with an 8-point loss at Milwaukee, a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City, and a 28-point home loss to Brooklyn while looking lifeless on the court.  Phoenix is struggling as well, losing five straight and eight of nine, but it has been competitive.  The Suns have lost four of their last five games by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games more than anything.  The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix.

6* Missouri Valley Conference *CA$H COW* on Evansville +13

The Key: The Northern Iowa Panthers are 26-2 overall and 15-1 within the conference.  They are on a collision course with Wichita State in Saturday's season finale for first place in the Missouri Valley.  Having already beaten the Shockers once this season, they could afford to lose this game against Evansville and still win the MVC with a win on Saturday.  Without question, the Panthers will be looking ahead to that game.  That means they won't give Evansville enough attention tonight to put them away by 13-plus points to cover this spread.  Plus, the Purple Aces are the only team in the MVC to beat Northern Iowa, doing so 52-49 at home back on January 1.  That will give them the confidence needed to pull the upset again.  Evansville is 10-2 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last three seasons.  Take Evansville.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Indiana State +9.5

The Key: The Wichita State Shockers are 15-1 in Missouri Valley play, tied with Northern Iowa atop the standings.  The Shockers could lose this game against Indiana State and still have a chance to win at least a share of the conference title on Saturday with a a home win over Northern Iowa in the season finale.  Because of this scenario, I believe the Shockers will be looking ahead to the Panthers, and they won't give Indiana State their full attention.  They'll need 100% focus to win by 10 points or more tonight, which is what it would take to cover this 9.5-point spread.  The Sycamores are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Indiana State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  Take Indiana State.

7* Pacers/Thunder Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Key: The Thunder are without Kevin Durant right now, but I believe the oddsmakers are over-adjusting for it.  They have been without Durant the past two games and haven't missed a beat.  They won 110-103 at Charlotte as 4.5-point favorites and 119-94 at home against Denver as 8.5-point favorites.  They have actually won four in a row and seven of their last nine without Durant.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has won 11 of 12 at home, and it is 8-1 SU in its last nine home meetings with Indiana.  The Pacers are in a letdown spot here off their huge win over the Warriors on Sunday.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* Texas/West Virginia Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5

The Key: The Texas Longhorns find themselves squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament at 17-10 on the season.  They desperately need a big road win today against West Virginia to help their cause, and I look for them to get it.  They have lost two hertbreakers in a row with a 69-71 loss at Oklahoma and a 77-85 home loss to Iowa State.  So, they are playing well, but they just haven't been able to get over the hump in close games here of late.  West Virginia comes in riding high after back-to-back wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State, but now it must face a team it already lost to by 27.  Indeed, the Longhorns beat the Mountaineers 77-50 at home on January 17th.  In fact, Texas is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, winning all four by double-digits.  It's just a terrible matchup for West Virginia because it cannot match the Longhorns' size inside.  Texas is 9-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Longhorns are 9-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as a favorite this season.  Texas is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Texas.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -7.5

The Key: This is a very tough situation for the Boston Celtics.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have lost road games to Sacramento (101-109) and the Lakers (111-118) in their first two games back from the All-Star Break.  They even went to overtime against the Lakers last night, which will only add to their fatigue.  Phoenix comes in hungry for a victory after back-to-back heartbreaking losses at Minnesota (109-111) and at Chicago (107-112) coming out of the break.  The Suns are still right in the thick of the Western Conference No. 8 seed race, so they are motivated right now.  The Suns are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Celtics.  Boston is 1-10 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  Phoenix is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division foes this season.  Take this combined 20-1 ATS angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Phoenix.

6* NCAAB "Total" Annihilator on Xavier/St. John's UNDER 147.5

The Key: The Xavier Musketeers will be squaring off against the St. John's Red Storm for the second time in just over a week tonight.  They lost the first meeting 70-78 at home in a game that saw 148 combined points.  All we need is one less point to be a winner in the rematch, and I like out chances.  These teams are obviously very familiar with each other after just recently playing on February 14th.  Familiarity favors defense almost every time.  It's easy to see that this total has been inflated when you consider Xavier is combining with its opponents for 140.7 points per game in Big East play, while St. John's is combining with its foes for 146.5 points per game in conference action.  Xavier is 32-13 UNDER in its last 45 February road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Musketeers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Red Storm's last six MOnday games.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The Key: These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks rank 7th.  That's the reason both teams have improved so dramatically over last year.  The Bucks are missing a point guard after trading Brandon Knight to Phoenix, and having his replacement, Michael Carter-Williams, currently injured.  These teams have squared off twice this season, and both times it resulted in defensive battles.  They combined for 184 points in their first meeting and 175 in their second.  I look for this game to finish in a similar range.  Betting the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 points who are playing their 2nd game in 5 days on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five years.  Take the UNDER.

7* Missouri Valley Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake -2.5

The Key: There's no question that Missouri State (10-17) and Drake (8-19) are two of the worst teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  However, these are two teams going in opposite directions.  The Bears are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall, while the Bulldogs are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall.  Drake has been a covering machine, too, going 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 contests.  It will be out for revenge from a 37-62 loss at Missouri State in the first meeting of the season way back on January 3rd. The Bulldogs have been a completely different team since then, and they are now more equipped to beat the Bears.  The home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take this combined 17-1 Angle backing the Bulldogs straight to the bank.  Take Drake.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +10

The Key: The Golden Bears have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Four of those six have come on the road, and three resulted in upset wins as underdogs over Washington, Washington State and Colorado.  The only loss was a 15-point setback at Utah as 17.5-point dogs.  Stanford has gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Its only win came by 8 at home against USC as 14.5-point favorites.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  I look for Cal to play Stanford tough as it is out for revenge from a 10-point home loss to the Cardinal earlier this season.  Take California.