Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Arkansas-Little Rock +1

The Key: Arkansas State brought back all 5 starters this year and has opened 4-2 with its only losses coming to Greensboro and Winthrop.  They also upset Duquesne.  They have played a tough schedule and are now battle-tested heading into this game with Missouri State.  The Bears didn't get to play their first game of the season until December 16th and they struggled with a 73-64 win over William Jewell.  Then they beat Northwestern State 94-67 on Saturday.  Now they will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days here and just don't have much chemistry due to their lack of playing time.  Arkansas-Little Rock is rested playing just its 2nd game in 15 days here.  And they will be the fresher, sharper team tonight.  Little Rock pulled the 67-66 upset as 12.5-point dogs over Missouri State last year.  And while this will be considered an upset again, I don't agree as Little Rock should be the favorite given having all 5 starters back and the favorable schedule spot.  The Trojans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 60 points or less.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on St. John's -4

The Key: I love the situation for the St. John's Red Storm tonight.  They just played Georgetown on December 13th exactly one week ago today.  They blew a 7-point lead in the final 3 minutes of regulation and lost 94-97 in overtime.  It's revenge time now for the Red Storm.  The price is right to back them off 3 straight losses against a brutal schedule of Seton Hall, Georgetown and Creighton.  They are desperate for their first Big East win here and we'll get a big effort from them because of it.  The Red Storm are 40-23 ATS in their last 63 games off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Hoyas are 1-7 ATS in their lsat 8 games off a win.  The Hoyas are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Take St. John's.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on St. Peter's +1

The Key: I love the situation for St. Peter's today.  They are coming off a 76-78 loss to Monmouth yesterday in a game that was lined at a pick 'em.  Now they are 1-point dogs to Monmouth in the rematch.  St. Peter's will be the hungrier team here today and will avenge that defeat with an outright win.  And I don't even think it will be close.  St. Peter's could easily be 6-1 this year as their 2 losses have come to St. John's and Monmouth by a combined 3 points.  St. Peter's is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a road loss.  The Peacocks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take St. Peter's.

6* Friday NCAAB *BLOWOUT* on St. Peter's -1

The Key: St. Peter's is a good team.  They are 4-2 this year with one of their losses coming by a single point to St. John's as an 11-point dog.  Their only blowout loss came to a very good Maryland team on the road.  They have 3 wins by double-digits.  The key here is that they are sharp right now having played 6 games.  The same cannot be said for Monmouth, which finally got to play its first game of the season on Tuesday, December 15th.  They lost that game 88-96 to Hofstra as a 1.5-point dog.  I'll gladly side with the sharper St. Peter's team, which went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Monmouth last year, outscoring them by a total of 15 points in their 2 wins.  The Peacocks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  St. Peter's is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 road games.  Take St. Peter's.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on North Dakota +7.5

The Key: I like the situation for North Dakota tonight.  This is a crazy college basketball season, and as a result there are a lot of back-to-backs.  North Dakota just lost to Southern Illinois last night.  Now they will be the more hungry team here than the Salukis.  And they are exactly the same 7.5-point dogs that they were last night.  North Dakota has 3 losses by single-digits this year, including a 9-point loss at Minnesota.  They have been competitive in every game outside of that game against Southern Illinois last night, and they will look to make amends here.  The Fighting Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games off an ATS loss.  North Dakota is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games after playing 4 consecutive games as a dog.  Take North Dakota.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Wyoming -10.5

The Key: Jeff Linder won 21-plus games in his final 3 seasons at Northern Colorado before getting hired by Wyoming in the offseason.  Now he's already doing big things for the Cowboys, leading them to a 5-1 start this year with their only loss coming by 2 points.  That includes an upset win at Oregon State as a 9-point dog.  And 3 of their 5 wins have come by double-digits.  Now they should crush a Nebraska-Omaha team in a terrible spot.  Omaha just had to play at Colorado last night and lost 49-91.  Now they will have to make the bus trip to Wyoming and play the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Omaha is 2-6 this season with its 2 wins coming by a combined 3 points over Middle Tennessee (60-59) and SIU-Edwardsville (65-63).  5 of their 6 losses have come by 12 points or more.  Omaha is getting outscored by 18.8 PPG on the season.  Wyoming is outscoring opponents by 12.5 PPG on the year, so this is the perfect storm given the awful situation for Omaha.  The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Mavericks are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 against a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Wyoming.

7* Northeastern/Syracuse NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -17.5

The Key: Syracuse is 4-1 this year with 3 wins by 30 or more points.  Their only loss came to Rutgers, which just beat Maryland by 14 on the road and is one of the better teams in the country.  They rebounded with one of the best performances of any team this season with a 101-63 win over Boston College.  And now they should make easy work of Northeastern.  The Huskies brought back just 2 players who averaged more than 3.5 PPG last season.  They are inexperienced and have just 2 games under their belts, a home-and-home with UMass.  Syracuse is 7-0 all-time against Northeastern, including 3-0 ATS in the last 3 matchups with a 72-49 win in their most recent showdown in 2018.  The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS win.  Take Syracuse.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Furman +6.5

The Key: Furman is 5-1 this year and outscoring opponents by 24.1 PPG.  They have picked up right where they left off.  They won 23 games in Bob Richey’s first season, then proceeded to tie a school record with 25 wins each fo the last 2 seasons.  They returned 4 starters and 3 double-digit scorers from last year’s team that went 25-7.  And their only loss this season came on the road to a solid Cincinnati team by a final of 73-78.  Alabama is just 3-2 with an 18-point loss to Stanford and an 8-point loss to Stanford.  I think the Crimson Tide are getting too much respect from the books here against a Furman team that is very capable of winning this one outright.  Plus the Crimson Tide are coming off that huge rivalry game against Clemson and have an even bigger game on deck this weekend against No. 6 Houston.  This is a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Alabama is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Furman is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games.  The Paladins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a home win where they scored 85 or more points.  Take Furman.

6* St. John's/Georgetown Big East *CA$H COW* on St. John's ML +100

The Key: St. John's has 4 starters back for head coach Mike Anderson this year.  The Red Storm are 5-2 this year with their only losses both coming on the road to BYU and Seton Hall by single-digits.  This is a very sneaky team in the Big East.  Georgetown is one of the worst teams in the conference.  They are 2-3 this year and only brought back one starter and lost all of their best players from last year.  Their 2 wins have come against Maryland-Baltimore County and Coppin State.  They lost to Navy, WVU and Villanova.  And they are coming off a loss to 13-point loss to Villanova on Friday in which they blew a double-digit lead and were outscored 43-17 in the 2nd half.   I doubt they'll be mentally recovered 2 days later here.  And the Hoyas are a thin team so playing 2 games in 3 days is a tough situation for them.  The depth of St. John's is a huge advantage, and they will run Georgetown to death tonight.  The Red Storm average 80.3 PPG on 46.7% shooting as they have been one of the best offensive teams in the country.  The Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 2 straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Take St. John's.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Marshall -3

The Key: The Marshall Thundering Herd had 10 players average at least 10 minutes per game last season.  They had zero seniors on the roster last year.  Nine of those are back as are 5 returning starters, so this team should be one of the most improved in the nation.  The guard guy of Taeyion Kinsey and Jarrod West combined for 30.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 8.3 APG and 3.1 SPG last year.  Marshall went 7-2 ATS in its final 9 games last year while scoring at least 80 points in each of its final four games in head coach Dan D’Antoni’s up-tempo system.  They are off to a good start this year at 3-0 with a 14-point win over Arkansas State as a 14-point favorite, a 16-point win at Wright State as a 1-point favorite and a 12-point win at Charleston as a 7-point favorite.  Ohio is 4-1 and off to a good start as well, but lost to the only good team they faced in Illinois.  Their 4 wins came against Chicago State. North Carolina A&T, Cleveland State and Purdue NW.  Ohio is 3-19 ATS in its last 22 road games off 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better.  Marshall is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a win by 10 points or more.  The situation favors the Thundering Herd as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days.  Ohio will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days.  The Thundering Herd are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.  Take Marshall.

6* Dayton/Mississippi State NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +4

The Key: The Mississippi State Bulldogs have bounced back from losses to Clemson and Liberty to open the season by going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall with wins by 17, 6 and 23 points.  The Bulldogs are now 4-point dogs to a rebuilding Dayton team that is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.  The Flyers lost Obi Toppin to the NBA and have not been impressive at all.  They were upset by SMU and only beat Eastern Illinois by 3 as 14-point favorites and Northern Kentucky by 6 as 11.5-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off 2 consecutive home wins.  Mississippi State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games against good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better.  Take Mississippi State.

6* Cincinnati/Tennessee NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -6.5

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are one of the best teams in the country this year with 4 starters back and ranked 12th.  They just haven’t had a chance to show it, and I think they are being undervalued because of only playing one game.  That one game was impressive with a 56-47 win over a very good Colorado team.  And now they take on Cincinnati, which only beat Lipscomb by 12, Furman by 5 and lost to Xavier by 8.  I think we can expect a 7-plus point victory from the Vols today in this matchup.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road games.  This will be their first road game this year.  The Bearcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as road dogs.  Cincinnati is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games off a win.  Take Tennessee.

6* Iowa State/Iowa NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Iowa -12.5

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes brought back all 5 starters this year and have arguably the best player in the country in Luka Garza, who is averaging 29.5 PPG and 10.8 RPG this year.  He is surrounded by shooters in Wieskamp (13.8 PPG, 57.9% 3-pointers), Fredrick (11.0 PPG, 58.8%) and Bohannon (8.8 PPG, 33.3%) to make Iowa one of the most dangerous teams in the country offensively.  That was on display in their 93-80 win over UNC in which they made 17 3-pointers.  Garza even had an off game with 6-of-20 from the floor and they still dominated.  Now they face an Iowa State team that is rebuilding after losing Tyrese Haliburton to the NBA.  The Cyclones struggled against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and actually trailed them at halftime.  Then they got upset by South Dakota State.  They won’t be able to hang with the Hawkeyes in this rivalry game.  And Iowa has beaten Iowa State by exactly 14 points each of the last 2 years.  The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off 2 consecutive non-conference games.  The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS off 2 straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 years.  The Cyclones are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Take Iowa.

6* Nebraska/Creighton NCAAB *CA$H COW* on OVER 152

The Key: Two teams built for offense and little defense square off tonight in this rivalry between Nebraska and Creighton.  Defense has been optional in the last 2 matchups in this series.  Nebraska won 94-75 in 2018 for 169 combined points and Creighton won 95-76 in 2019 for 171 combined points.  Nebraska is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 road games off a loss.  The OVER is 21-9 on Huskers last 30 games off a loss.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Bluejays last 11 games as a favorite.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Stephen F. Austin +23.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Baylor.  They are disappointed they didn’t get to play Gonzaga over the weekend due to COVID.  And they will have a hard time getting up emotionally to play Stephen F. Austin tonight.  Especially since they have their Big 12 opener on deck this weekend against Texans.  But the Lumberjacks aren’t a team to be taken lightly.  They went 28-3 last year and won 27 or more games for the 6th time in 8 seasons.  They returned 3 of their top 4 scorers from that 28-win team, too.  And they are primed to give No. 2 Baylor a run for its money tonight.  The Lumberjacks have handled their business at 3-0 with 3 wins by double-digits.  Stephen F. Austin is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 PPG or more.  The Lumberjacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Stephen F. Austin.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *BLOWOUT* on Marshall -5.5

The Key: The Marshall Thundering Herd had 10 players average at least 10 minutes per game last season.  They had zero seniors on the roster last year.  Nine of those are back as are 5 returning starters, so this team should be one of the most improved in the nation.  The guard guy of Taeyion Kinsey and Jarrod West combined for 30.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 8.3 APG and 3.1 SPG last year.  Marshall went 7-2 ATS in its final 9 games last year while scoring at least 80 points in each of its final four games in head coach Dan D’Antoni’s up-tempo system.  They are off to a good start this year at 2-0 with a 14-point win over Arkansas State as a 14-point favorite and a 16-point win at Wright State as a 1-point favorite.  And now they should crush Charleston, which lost by 24 to Furman and by 19 to North Carolina en route to a 1-2 start with their only win coming against lowly Limestone College.  Charleston lost its leading scorer from last year, and Zep Jasper and Brevin Galloway are the only 2 players returning who averaged more than 4 PPG last year.  They have just one starter back and are going through some growing pains early on.  Marshall is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 non-conference road games.  The Thundering Herd are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Charleston is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a dog.  Take Marshall.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *UPSET SPECIAL* on Furman +3.5

The Key: Furman is 4-0 this year and winning by 31.3 PPG.  They have picked up right where they left off.  They won 23 games in Bob Richey’s first season, then proceeded to tie a school record with 25 wins each fo the last 2 seasons.  They returned 4 starters and 3 double-digit scorers from last year’s team that went 25-7.  Cincinnati is off to a shaky start with a 67-55 win over Lipscomb as a 13.5-point favorite and a 69-77 loss to Xavier as a 3.5-point favorite.  It’s always tough to get up for your next game after playing your biggest rival like Cincinnati just did.  That may be even more true here in this sandwich spot with a game against ranked Tennessee on deck Saturday.  The is a game the Paladins can win outright.  Furman is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games.  The Bearcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.  Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games with a total of 140 to 149.5.  Take Furman.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston College +7

The Key: The Boston College Eagles played 3 competitive games against Villanova, Rhode Island and Seton Hall that were all decided by single-digits to start the season.  Then they lost by 20 to Florida.  They have faced one of the toughest schedules in all of college basketball thus far, and there will be value with them moving forward because of it.  The same cannot be said for Minnesota, which has faced one of the easiest schedules.  They played Loyola-Marymount twice, North Dakota and Wisconsin-Green Bay.  And they only beat Loyola by 15 and 3 points and North Dakota by 9.  They aren’t as good as their 4-0 record suggests, and they will get exposed tonight by Boston College.  The Eagles have 5 players scoring in double figures this year with a very balanced attack and a veteran bunch.    Take Boston College.

6* Purdue/Miami ESPN 2 *CA$H COW* on Purdue -2

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes have some key injuries that could hold them back here against Purdue.  All-ACC Preseason selection Chris Dykes suffered an ankle injury in Friday’s win over Stetson.  He finished with a game-high 20 points and 5 assists, and he is the catalyst of this team at the point guard position.  He didn’t practice on Monday and is questionable to play.  The Hurricanes were already without guard Earl Timberlake (ankle) for three to five weeks, and then forward Matt Cross left the Stetson game with four minutes to go with a foot injury.  Purdue shoots 43.6% from 3-point range this season and will present a tough challenge for Miami’s thin backcourt.  The Boilermakers have great balance with 6 players averaging in double figures scoring.  Miami is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games against teams that score 77 PPG or more.  Jim Larranaga is 1-8 ATS in home games off 2 straight wins by 15 points or more as the coach of the Hurricanes.  Take Purdue.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on SMU ML +110

The Key: The Dayton Flyers lost Obi Toppin to the NBA and are clearly rebuilding this year.  That showed in their opener as they only beat Eastern Illinois 66-63 as a 14-point favorite.  And now they have to take a big step up in competition here against an SMU team that is loaded under head coach Tim Jankovich.  They have beaten Sam Houston State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Houston Baptist by an average of 31.3 PPG this year.  The Mustangs were 19-11 last year and poised to make the NCAA Tournament.  They want to be the team to end Dayton’s 21-game winning streak.  Dayton also lost guard Trey Landers and his 10.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 2.4 APG from last year as Landers went on to play professionally in Germany.  The Mustangs brought back 4 of their top 5 scorers from last year and added in TCU transfer Kendrick Davis who averaged 6.7 APG last year, Oklahoma State big man Yor Anei and Cal transfer Darius McNeill, who averaged 11.2 PPG last year.  Davis is already making a huge impact with 21.3 PPG and 9.7 APG.  Take SMU.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit +26.5

The Key: Mike Davis is a great recruiter and is doing his best to turn around this Detroit program right away.  And he has the benefit of returning Antoine Davis, whose 24.3 PPG last year were the fifth-most in D-1.  He also averaged 4.5 APG and made 90.1% of his free throws.  The Titans bring in transfers Noah Waterman of Niagara and Taurean Thompson of Seton Hall and Syracuse to help in the post.  Marquell Fraser is a transfer from Idaho and Bul Kuol is a transfer from Cal Baptist that give the Titans versatility on the win.  Chris Brandon is back after leading the Titans with 8.1 RPG last year.  The 6-7 Kuol was a 47.5% 3-point shooter last year and the 6-11 Waterman was a 42.9% 3-point shooter, so the Titans finally have size and outside shooters to compliment Davis.  This is a huge letdown spot for Michigan State after upsetting Duke 75-69 on Tuesday.  The Spartans won’t be nearly as hungry to face Detroit tonight, and that’s a big reason why I think the Titans hang around for 40 minutes and cover this lofty number.  The Titans are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a dog.  The Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Take Detroit.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Marshall -1

The Key: The Marshall Thundering Herd had 10 players average at least 10 minutes per game last season.  They had zero seniors on the roster last year.  Nine of those are back as are 5 returning starters, so this team should be one of the most improved in the nation.  The guard guy of Taeyion Kinsey and Jarrod West combined for 30.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 8.3 APG and 3.1 SPG last year.  Marshall went 7-2 ATS in its final 9 games last year while scoring at least 80 points in each of its final four games in head coach Dan D’Antoni’s up-tempo system.  And the Thundering Herd got a game under their belts with a 70-56 win over Arkansas State as a 14-point favorite.  That’s more than Wright State can say as they will be playing their first game of the season tonight.  I think Marshall will be the sharper team as a result and I love their experience early in the season.  The Raiders have to replace 2 double-digit scorers from last year.  The Thundering Herd are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road games.  Take Marshall.

6* Thursday NCAAB *UPSET SPECIAL* on USC ML +105

The Key: The USC Trojans are off to a 3-0 start this year and will challenge for a Pac-12 title with all the talent they have.  Few teams have put together a more impressive win than the Trojans had last time out, beating BYU 79-53 as 3.5-point dogs.  They are lighting it up offensively this year in averaging 83.3 PPG on 53.3% shooting as a team.  Freshman Evan Mobley was the third-rated player in this year’s freshmen class and it is showing.  He is averaging 16.3 PPG and 9.0 RPG in 3 games.  HIs brother Isaiah Mobley had a double-double against BYU.  Rice Transfer Drew Peterson had a game-high 19 points, and SEMS transfer Tahj Eeddy added 16 points.  It’s clear that head coach Andy Enfield struck gold with this recruiting class already.  UConn is 2-0 this season but against a soft schedule with wins over Central Connecticut State and Hartford.  They only beat Hartford 69-57 as 22.5-point favorites and only covered by a single point against CCSU.  USC is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Trojans are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs.  Take USC on the Money Line.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *BLOWOUT* on Memphis -20

The Key: The Memphis Tigers were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this year with 4 starters back and one of the top recruiting classes under Penny Hardaway. But after a 1-2 start with losses to WKU and VCU, I think we are getting Memphis cheap here tonight.  They also crushed St. Mary’s 73-56 and both WKU and VCU are two of the better mid-major teams in the land.  Now they take a big step down in class here against Arkansas State, which is 0-2 with losses to Marshall by 14 as a 14-point dog and Morehead State by 8 as a favorite.  Now this is a big step up in class for the Red Wolves.  After playing 3 games in 3 days, now the Tigers have had 4 days off to practice and improve and should put their best foot forward tonight.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games.  Hardaway is 11-2 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games as the coach of Memphis.  Take Memphis.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *UPSET SPECIAL* on Montana State +5.5

The Key: The Montana State Bobcats returned their entire front court this season with Jurbrile Belo and Devin Kirby combining for 12.1 RPG last year.  They have Amin Adamu back after 11.7 PPG and 5.2 RPG last year.  And they brought in UMKC transfer Xavier Bishop to run the show after averaging 15.4 PPG and shooting 35.3% from 3-point range in 2018-19.  Bishop got off to a huge start with 22 points and 5 assists in an impressive 91-78 upset victory over UNLV as 12-point dogs.  Belo had 14 points and 8 rebounds and Adamu added in 14 points in the win, so the key players are playing big roles already.  Pacific barely got past awful UC-Riverside 66-60 and then lost 58-70 as 5.5-point dogs at Nevada.  The Bobcats have a real shot to win this game outright over Pacific tonight.  Montana State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games after playing a road game.  Take Montana State.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -10

The Key: Head coach Nate Oats brings back 4 of his top 6 scorers from last year led by John Petty Jr. and Jaden Shackelford, who combined for 30 PPG and 11 RPG last year.  After crushing Jacksonville State 81-57 as 20.5-point favorites, the Crimson Tide fell apart against Stanford yesterday with a 64-82 loss.  They shot terrible at 35.8% from the field and gave up 51.7%.  But their defense has been good at forcing turnovers as they have forced 42 in the first 2 games.  And they will be looking to bounce back in a big way today against a UNLV team that is terrible.  UNLV lost 78-91 as a 12.5-point favorite to Montana State in their opener and were routed 51-78 as a 13-point dog to North Carolina yesterday.  They lost basically everyone other than Bryce Hamilton from last season.  They have committed 35 turnovers in 2 games, so they are sure to not handle the pressure of Alabama very well.  Once UNC turned up the pressure yesterday they crumbled.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take Alabama.

6* UNC/UNLV NCAAB *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -12

The Key: Big red flag on UNLV losing outright 78-91 as 12.5-point favorites over Montana State in their opener.  They gave up 55.6% shooting in the loss.  They lost basically everyone other than Bryce Hamilton from last season.  And he even had 27 points and they still lost by 13.  North Carolina won 79-60 over College of Charleston in the opener to cover as 17.5-point favorites.  They have some stud freshmen guards in Love and Davis, who combined for 28 points in the win.  And Roy Williams believes this Tar Heels team will be a much better shooting team than last year, although it didn’t show in the opener as they won by 19 despite shooting just 39.4% from the field and 4 for 18 (22.2%) from 3-point range.  UNLV lost by 13 despite shooting 11 for 25 (44%) from 3-point range.  Bets on neutral court teams who covered as a double-digit favorite and had a losing record last season are 29-9 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take North Carolina.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Arkansas-Pine Bluff +33.5

The Key: I like that Arkansas-Pine Bluff already has 2 games under its belt while Iowa State will be playing its 1st game of the season here.  Pine Bluff lost by 42 to Marquette but by just 34 to 7th-ranked Wisconsin last time.  And now they are getting 33.5 points from an Iowa State team that went 12-20 last season and returns only 2 starters and one double-digit scorer in Rasir Bolton.  The Cyclones lost their best player in Tyrese Haliburton, who was a lottery pick of the Sacramento Kings.  They were that bad with him, and they are going to be even worse without him.  Take Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

6* Saturday NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Saint Louis -2.5

The Key: The Saint Louis Billikens returned all 5 starters this year and each of their top 8 scorers from a team that won 23 games last year.  Senior Jordan Goodwin averaged 15.4 PPG and 10.4 RPG as a junior last season.  Javonte Perkins averaged 15 PPG.  And the Billikens got off to a great start this year with an 89-52 win over SIU-Edwardsville as 24.5-point favorites.  That gives them a common opponent with rebuilding LSU.  LSU only beat SIU-Edwardsville 94-81 as a 30-point favorite.  So Saint Louis beat the same team by 37 points that LSU only beat by 13.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  The Billikens are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.  Take Saint Louis.

6* SDSU/St. Mary’s NCAAB *CA$H COW* on South Dakota State -1.5

The Key: South Dakota State went 22-10 last year and now returns all 5 starters.  They return Conference Player of the Year Douglas Wilson, who averages 18.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG last year.  He and fellow big man Matt Dentlinger combined to shoot 62.8% from the field.  Dentlinger averaged 12.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG.  Sophomores Alex Arians and David Wingett combined for 17.4 PPG and 11.3 RPG last year while both shooting at least 35% from 3-point range.  Noah Freidel averaged 12.2 PPG and shot 39.5% from 3 and 85.2% from he line.  And they have good depth with Baylor Sheierman (6.0 PPG) and Tray Buchanan (6.3 PPG).  They gave WVU a game in their opener in a 71-79 loss as 11.5-point dogs.  And they came back and crushed Utah State 83-59 as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they’re basically a pick ‘em here against a Saint Mary’s team that had to reload in the offseason.  St. Mary’s lost 56-73 to Memphis in their opener and that’s a Memphis team that went on to lose to Western Kentucky yesterday.  Then they were fortunate to win in comeback fashion 66-64 over Northern Iowa yesterday.  South Dakota State is the better team here and should be a bigger favorite.  The Jackrabbits are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  The Gaels are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games as a dog.  Take South Dakota State.

6* Seton Hall/Louisville NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Louisville -5

The Key: Louisville won 24 games with only 7 losses last year under Chris Mack and he has a lot of talent back this year.  Sophomore PG David Johnson and sophomore forward Samuell Williamson are studs.  The Cardinals crushed Evansville 79-44 as 21-point favorites in their opener.  They had 3 players in double-figures led by 18 from Carlik Jones and 17 from Williamson.  Johnson dished out 5 assists and they finished with 19 assists as a team.  Seton Hall lost Big East Player of the Year Myles Powell and Big East Defensive Player of the Year Romaro Gill from last year’s team.  They also lost leading assist many Quincy McKnight, who averaged 11.9 PPG and 5.4 APG last year.  This is a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it will show here in their opener against Louisville.  Mack is 12-3 ATS off a win by 30 points or more as a head coach.  Mack is 29-13 ATS in home games after allowing 60 points or fewer as a head coach.  The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Louisville.

6* Gonzaga/Kansas NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Kansas +4

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks were well on their way to the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament last year with a 28-3 record.  They have 3 starters back from that team in senior guard Marcus Garrett and juniors David McCormack and guard Ochai Agbaji.  The backcourt newcomers include junior college transfer Tyon Grant-Foster and blue-chip prospect Bryce Thompson, whose father played for Bill Self at Tulsa.  Gonzaga returns just 2 starters and I don’t believe the Zags should be favored here.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Take Kansas.

7* NCAAB Dog of the Week on South Dakota State +10.5

The Key: South Dakota State went 22-10 last year and now returns all 5 starters.  They return Conference Player of the Year Douglas Wilson, who averages 18.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG last year.  He and fellow big man Matt Dentlinger combined to shoot 62.8% from the field.  Dentlinger averaged 12.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG.  Sophomores Alex Arians and David Wingett combined for 17.4 PPG and 11.3 RPG last year while both shooting at least 35% from 3-point range.  Noah Freidel averaged 12.2 PPG and shot 39.5% from 3 and 85.2% from he line.  And they have good depth with Baylor Sheierman (6.0 PPG) and Tray Buchanan (6.3 PPG).  The Jackrabbits are live underdogs tonight, and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a dog.  Take South Dakota State.

6* Wednesday NCAAB *BLOWOUT* on Houston -22

The Key: The Houston Cougars finished 24-8 last year a season after making it to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson has really found a home here in Houston.  The Cougars have won 20-plus games in each of the past 5 seasons and have been ranked for 30 weeks the past 3 seasons with 3 Top 25 finishes.  The Cougars have 4 returning starters and 7 lettermen back so this is a deep, experienced roster.  Take Houston.

6* Heat/Lakers Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Miami +6 

The Key: The Miami Heat still haven’t made more 3-pointers than the Lakers in any game this series despite being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA.  And they’ve managed to hang tough despite the Lakers shooting better than they did all season in this series.  The Heat are just the definition of team basketball, which has allowed them to overcome the two superstars of the Lakers in LeBron James and Anthony Davis.  I’m banking on them continuing to overcome the odds again in Game 6 tonight.  And hopefully they can make more 3-pointers than the Lakers in one game this series, which would almost assuredly result in a cover and possible outright win.  Take Miami. 

7* Heat/Lakers Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat just got back Bam Adebayo from injury.  They gave won Game 3 outright as 9-point dogs and gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 4 in a 6-point loss.  And now they are catching 7.5-points in Game 5, which is too much.  The Lakers are not the better shooting team in this series, but they have somehow overcome the odds and outshot the Lakers from beyond the arc.  They have 59 made 3-pointers while the Heat only have 45 for the series.  You’d think that would even out as the series goes on.  Maybe this is finally the game where the Heat make more 3’s than they do.  Either way, they will fight scratch and claw for 4 quarters to try and stay alive, and that should be good enough to stay within the number tonight and possibly win outright.  Take Miami.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat showed their resiliency by winning Game 3 outright as 9-point underdogs, 115-104.  Jimmy Butler had a 40-point triple double and willed this team to victory.  And now the Heat should be getting Bam Adebayo back from injury from Game 3. The Lakers made more 3-pointers than the Heat for a 3rd straight games, which was very unlikely when you consider the Heat are a great shooting team while the Lakers are a terrible one.  It’s now 45 to 34 the edge in 3-pointers made for the Lakers in this series.  Look for the Heat to narrow that gap in Game 4 tonight and come away with a cover and possibly another outright victory.  Take Miami.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9.5

The Key: The Miami Heat will be laying it all on the line tonight.  This is a must-win after falling behind 0-2 in this series.  And this has been a resilient team all year as they have gone 23-8 ATS following a loss this season.  The Lakers have made 31 3-pointers in this series while the Heat have only made 22.  That’s really the difference in the series, and it has been a big upset thus far because the Heat are the way better shooting team when you look at their numbers compared to the Lakers coming into this series.  It will even back out tonight as the Heat have their best shooting game of the series.  Take Miami.

7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat +10

The Key: The Miami Heat are catching double-digits against the Lakers tonight and they shouldn’t be.  This is a huge game for them in this series.  And this is a 5.5-point adjustment from Game 1 where the Heat were +4.5 dogs to close.  I realize Adebayo and Dragic are unlikely to play, but the Heat have the depth to overcome it.  They can go small and give the Lakers some problems.  They are the best shooting team in the NBA from the 3-point line which is a big reason why they have made it this far.  But the Lakers won the 3-point line in Game 1, which is a huge upset.  The Lakers were 15-of-38 while the Heat were only 11-of-35.  Look for a role reversal here.  The Heat shoot 37.4% from 3 on the season and the Lakers only shoot 35% as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in the postseason.  They play great defense, have tremendous shooting, and have the go-to guy in Jimmy Butler to get it down down the stretch when the games are tight.  They match up well with the Lakers because they have guys who can handle Anthony Davis and LeBron James defensively.  And the Lakers just don’t have the depth outside those two superstars to match up with the Heat.  This line is way off in Game 1 tonight with the Heat catching 5 points.  Take Miami.

6* Celtics/Heat Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Miami +3.5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in the playoffs.  Every time they have lost they have bounced back with a win and cover.  They are a resilient team and realize they need to step on Boston’s throat after letting them win Game 5.  I think Jimmy Butler and company will rise to the occasion in Game 6 and close out this series.  The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off an ATS win.  The Heat are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games off a SU loss.  The Heat are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

6* Nuggets/Lakers Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Denver +5

The Key: The Nuggets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games when trailing in a series.  They came back from 3-1 deficits in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs this year.  And they certainly believe they can still come back and win this series after giving the Lakers all they wanted and more through the first 4 games.  Take Denver.

7* Heat/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics have responded every time they’ve had some adversity.  They won Game 7 against the Raptors, and they won Game 3 after falling into an 0-2 hole to the Heat.  With their season on the line tonight they will respond again.  The Celtics are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 playoff games as a favorite.  Boston is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 18-9 ATS off a SU loss this season.  The Celtics are 20-11 ATS when revenging a loss this year.  Take Boston.

7* Celtics/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: This game is likely to go down to the wire and it’s clear the Miami Heat are better in clutch moments in these playoffs.  So I’ll trust them here catching 3 points.  They had a chance to win late in Game 3 after taking the first 2 games of this series despite shooting terribly.  The Heat shot 38.8% in Game 3 compared to 48.2% for Boston.  There won’t be that big of a disparity again, and the Heat certainly won’t shoot as poorly as they did from the 3-point line, where they were 12-of-44 (27.3%).  The Heat are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the playoffs this year.  The Heat are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games off a loss.  The Heat are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take Miami.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are very comfortable being down in a series.  They gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 2 and probably should have won, but lost at the buzzer.  They’ll come back in Game 3 with their best effort of the series.  The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series.  Take Denver.

6* Nuggets/Lakers Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 213.5

The Key: The OVER is 21-7-2 in the last 30 matchups in this series.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups with combined scores of 240, 245, 236 and 232 points.  This is about as easy as it gets after they combined for 240 in Game 1.  They might not score that many points, but they will score enough to top this very low 213.5-point total.  Take the OVER.

6* Celtics/Heat Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics are in must-win mode here in Game 3.  They did themselves no favors in Game 2 by turning the ball over 20 times and lost 101-106 after blowing a big lead.  They also lost in overtime in Game 1, so this is a really close series.  I think the intensity level the Celtics play with compared to the Heat will be massive in this game.  Look for the Heat to relax just enough to allow the Celtics to win and cover this game.  Boston is 19-6 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days this year.  The Celtics are 46-25 ATS in their last 71 games off 2 straight losses by 6 points or less.  Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 playoff games as favorites.  Take Boston.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -7

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are coming off their 2nd straight 7-game series.  They almost have to be running on fumes right now, at least for Game 1 of this series with the Lakers.  They did not respond well in Game 1 last series against the Clippers following a 7-game series against the Jazz.  They lost to the Clippers by 23 in Game 1.  I think the Lakers can put it on them early and pull away to a blowout victory as well.  The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins over the Rockets by 8 points or more to close out last series.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Heat/Celtics Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Miami +2.5

The Key: The Miami Heat show no mercy.  They are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this year.  They took the Bucks out in 5 games and really outplayed them even before Giannis got hurt, which is saying something because the Bucks were arguably the best team in the NBA.  And they came up clutch in Game 1 and won in OT.  It’s a Heat team playing with so much confidence right now that it’s just tough to bet against them.  And here they are again getting no respect from oddsmakers as 2.5-point dogs in Game 2.  They play great defense and have 3-point shooters everywhere, plus the best closer in Jimmy Butler.  Take Miami.

7* Nuggets/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 208.5

The Key: Game 7 UNDERS are one of the best bets in the NBA.  The pressure is huge for these Game 7’s, and they tend to be played at a snail’s pace because of it.  The Denver Nuggets have played 3 Game 7’s the past 2 seasons and we saw them combine for 176 points with the Spurs, 196 with the Blazers and 158 with the Jazz.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Nuggets last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Clippers last 7 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Clippers/Nuggets Game 6 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215

The Key: The Clippers and Nuggets combined for 181 points in Game 4 and 216 points in Game 5.  I expect this total to fall somewhere in the middle close to 200 combined points.  The Nuggets scored 38 points in the 4th quarter of their Game 5 comeback win that pushed that up to 216.  They just went off from the 3-point line.  That’s unlikely to happen again, and this will be a half court game.  Take the UNDER.

6* Rockets/Lakers Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Houston +6.5

The Key: We’re getting he best price we’ve gotten on Houston all series in Game 5 tonight as 6.5-point dogs.  That’s because they have failed to cover in each of their last 3 games against the Lakers, but it’s not like any of them were blowouts.  They lost all 3 by 10 points or fewer.  With their season on the line, expect a big performance from the Rockets in desperation mode in Game 5.  Houston is 15-5 ATS when playing with double revenge over the last 2 years.  Take Houston.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5

The Key: This series is tied 3-3, but it’s clear the Boston Celtics are the better team.  They have outscored the Raptors by a combined 43 points in their 3 wins, while the Raptors have only outscored the Celtics by a combined 11 points in their 3 victories.  So the Celtics have outscored the Raptors by a total of 32 points in this series, or by an average of 5.3 PPG.  I like the price on the Celtics here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 7.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite this year.  The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in road games off a loss this year.  The Celtics are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite.  Take Boston.

7* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 219.5

The Key: We’ve seen all these playoff series get lower and lower scoring as they progress.  And this Lakers/Rockets series should be no different.  After combining for 226 points in Game 2, the Lakers and Rockets only combined for 214 points in Game 3.  And I see more of the same here in Game 4.  Houston is 21-11 UNDER off a loss this season.  Houston is 17-4 UNDER revenging a home loss over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 2nd Round Game of the Year on Denver Nuggets +8

The Key: The Denver Nuggets won Game 2 outright as 8.5-point dogs and covered in Game 3 in a 6-point loss as 8.5-point dogs.  Oddsmakers just aren’t giving them the respect they deserve here on a neutral court as 8-point dogs again for Game 4.  This is a big game for the Nuggets to try and get back into this series and square it up at 2-2.  They will be the hungrier team and will be playing like it.  The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 conference semifinals games.  Take Denver.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks went from being basically 5-point favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now underdogs.  They were 2.5-point dogs in Game 4 with the uncertainty surrounding Giannis.  He played and got off to a quick start before injuring his ankle again.  He didn’t play the entire 2nd half and the Bucks still won 118-115 (OT).  Now the Bucks are 4-point dogs in Game 5, basically a 9-point adjustment for likely being without Giannis, and I don’t agree with it.  The Bucks aren’t 9 points worse without him.  They actually can space the floor better because the Heat can’t sink in on Giannis like they have been doing.  Now the Heat have to play the Bucks more straight up because of all the great shooters on their team.  And the Heat have some injuries of their own that are flying under the radar as Herro, Crowder and Olynyk are all questionable to play tonight.  Giannis is also technically questionable and not officially out yet.  The Bucks will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight after pulling out Game 4 in OT and staying alive.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -1.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics had a terrible shooting night in Game 4 and lost 93-100.  They made just 7 3-pointers compared to 17 for the Raptors.  Just shoot the ball a little better and they would have won that game.  That’s what I’m expecting to happen for them here in Game 5 as they grab back control of this series.  The Celtics are 27-12 ATS against teams with winning records this season and I trust head coach Brad Stevens to get them to respond today.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Lakers Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: Rust has played a factor in the Lakers losing both Game 1’s in these playoffs.  They didn’t all play together in the bubble and it hurt them in their upset loss to the Blazers in Game 1 last round.  And having 6 days off prior to this series with Houston hurt them in Game 1.  The Lakers will be much sharper in Game 2 tonight and their massive advantages in this series will show through.  They actually got out rebounded by the Rockets in Game 1, which should never happen with their size.  They won’t let it happen again, and they can’t shoot it much worse than they did in Game 1.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors went from being favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now 2-point dogs in Game 4.  I like this price we are getting on the Raptors who have to be feeling very confident after beating the Celtics at the buzzer in Game 3 to avoid an 0-3 hole.  The Raptors just need to shoot it better and they’ll get right back in this series, which seems like an easy fix.  Toronto is shooting just 28.3% from 3-point range in this series compared to 38.7% for Boston.  The Raptors are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 ATS.  The Raptors are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.  Take Toronto.

7* Bucks/Heat Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Miami Heat should not be getting this much respect from the books.  They were 5-point dogs in Game 1 and 5.5-point dogs in Game 2 and won both outright to improve to 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  But now they are back down to only 5-point dogs in Game 3, a game that the Milwaukee Bucks simply have to have.  Look for the Bucks to be the team playing with the sense of urgency here down 0-2 and for the Heat to have their worst performance of the series knowing that they have some breathing room.  I expect the Bucks to win this game with plenty of room to spare by double-digits.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors have to win this game to get back in this series.  They are down 2-0 because Boston has shot lights out while Toronto couldn’t have been colder.  The Celtics are shooting 41.6% with 32 made 3’s in this series while the Raptors are shooting 26.3% with only 21 made 3’s.  It took an out of this world performance from Marcus Smart and his 5 3’s in the 4th quarter for the Celtics to win Game 2.  The Raptors will return the favor in Game 3 tonight.  Take Toronto.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were at a huge disadvantage in Game 1 and I cashed in the Heat +5.5 because of it.  But I’m taking the Bucks in Game 1 tonight because that advantage no longer exists for the Heat.  The Heat had 7 days to get ready for the Bucks while the Bucks only had 1 day to get ready for the Heat.  But now the Bucks will be much more prepared here in Game 2 with another day of practice in between games to figure out the right strategy for the Heat.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a loss by more than 10 points, and the Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver ML -105

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have all the momentum now after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the last 2 games by double-digits.  Jamal Murray has been unstoppable, and will continue to be tonight.  The Nuggets won a Game 7 against the Spurs last year so they won’t shy from the pressure.  And all the pressure feels like it’s on the Jazz in this one.  And the Nuggets have Gary Harris back healthy now to give Donovan Mitchell another look defensively after Mitchell had torched the Nuggets before his return.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  Take Denver on the Money Line.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5.5

The Key: The Miami Heat went 2-0 against the Milwaukee Bucks during the regular season before the bubble.  They won 105-89 as 4.5-point home dogs and 131-126 as 11.5-point road dogs.  I’m willing to not count their 116-130 loss to the Bucks in the bubble as 10-point dogs because both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic sat out that game, and those are their two best players.  The Bucks let the Magic hang around the entire season despite a plethora of injuries for the Magic, including to their best player in Aaron Gordon, who didn’t play the entire series.  The Heat swept the Pacers and won all 4 games by at least 9 points each.  The Bucks have their hands full with the Heat starting with Game 1 of this series.  The Heat have had the last 6 days off to prepare for Milwaukee, while the Bucks only have one day to get ready for Miami after playing on Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* Nuggets/Jazz Game 6 *BAILOUT* on Denver +2.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets came up clutch down 3-1 and won 117-107 in Game 5.  I think they take a lot of confidence from that effort and force a Game 7 with another win in Game 6 tonight.  The Jazz aren’t going to keep shooting this well throughout the playoffs as they have shot 50% or better throughout the playoffs.  Mike Malone will make some defensive adjustments as he’s had a few extra days to get his Nuggets ready for Game 6.  The Jazz are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  Take Denver.

7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Magic/Bucks UNDER 225.5

The Key: The last 2 games in this series have seen 228 and 227 combined points after a 207-point output in Game 2.  The reason is simple.  Both the Magic and Bucks have shot lights out from 3-point range.  They have both shot at least 40% in each of the last 2 games with the Bucks 34-of-78 (43.6%) and the Magic 37-of-85 (43.5%).  I just cannot see this continuing, and as a result I love the UNDER 225.5 points in Game 5 today.  We just need a slight dip in 3-point shooting from one or both of these teams to cash this UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are in a must-win tonight to keep their season alive.  They battled hard in Game 4 but came up 2 points short.  The Jazz shot nearly 58% as a team and attempted 23 more free throws than the Nuggets.  Only a slight improvement in both categories should have the Nuggets winning this game outright.  The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Take Denver.

7* Pacers/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +6

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are a prideful team that won’t just lay down and die for the Miami Heat.  The Pacers have been in every game this series with all 3 games decided by 12 points or fewer.  And I think we are getting them at their best price of the series here as +6 dogs in Game 4.  The Heat are 10-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this year.  The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss.  The Heat are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a win.  Take Indiana.

6* Bucks/Magic Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 225.5

The Key: The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game 3 and that game still only saw 228 combined points.  The Bucks won’t shoot that well again, and this game will stay UNDER the posted total of 225.5 as a result.  This is the pivotal game of the series where the Magic will either get back in it, or the Bucks will take control.  So expect the defensive intensity to be very high in this one on both sides.  The UNDER is 5-2-1 in the last 8 matchups.  Take the UNDER.

7* Celtics/76ers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +8

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are playing for their season today down 0-3 in this series.  They were competitive in Games 1 and 3 with a pair of 8-point losses.  And now they are 8-point dogs in Game 4 after not being more than 6-point dogs in any other game in this series thus far.  I like the price we are getting with them here.  The 76ers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Rockets/Thunder Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma City +3.5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are in must-win mode in Game 3 after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Rockets.  They choked away Game 2 in the 2nd half and went ice cold from the field.  They scored 59 points in the 1st half but just 39 points after intermission.  Look for them to put it all together and for the Rockets to relax in Game 3 with a 2-0 lead.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NBA 1st Round Game of the Year on Indiana Pacers +5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in must-win mode in Game 3 after dropping the first 2 games of this series.  They were competitive in the first two games but couldn’t get it done in the 2nd half.  They will put it all together in what is essentially a win or go home game for them.  And I also expect the Heat to relax just enough with a comfortable 2-0 lead to let the Pacers have their way today.  Take Indiana.

7* Mavericks/Clippers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers will respond Friday after getting embarrassed by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2.  It’s a Clippers team that was missing a lot of pieces during the restart, so it’s no wonder they have opened this season a bit rusty.  Look for them to put it all together in Game 3 and take back control of this series.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS off a loss this season.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Magic/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -12.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed in Game 1 by the Orlando Magic, 110-122 as 13.5-point favorites.  Now they are shorter favorites in Game 2 and I think we see a role reversal here with the Bucks dominating from start to finish.  They’ll be playing with a sense of urgency today, something they did not do in Game 1.  Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 years.  They are coming back to win by 13 PPG on average in this situation.  The Magic are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games off a SU loss.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +4

The Key: The Utah Jazz forced overtime in Game 1 despite shooting just 16 for 47 (34%) from 3 while Denver shot 22 for 41 (53.7%).  Look for the Jazz to pull the upset in Game 2 as the Nuggets don’t have an answer for Donovan Mitchell, who scored 57 points in the opener.  And I fully expect him to get more help from his role players in this one, especially from 3-point range.  The Jazz are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Take Utah.

7* Blazers/Lakers Game 1 *BAILOUT* on Portland +6.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers just had a knack for playing in close games in the restart and that will continue in Game 1 tonight.  All 9 of their games were decided by 10 points or fewer, including 7 by 5 points or less.  They have an unstoppable offense that will challenge the Lakers, who are without 2 key defenders on the perimeter in Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo.  They’re going to have a very hard time matching up with Lillard and McCollum.  The Lakers went 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in the restart, and I have a hard time believing they can just flip a switch here in Game 1.  It’s going to take them a few games to gel, while the Blazers have already gelled as a team with all of the meaningful games they’ve played thus far.  The Blazers are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games off 3 straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Blazers are 46-22 ATS in the last 68 matchups.  Take Portland.

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -6

The Key: The Boston Celtics enter the playoffs fully healthy and ready to go for a title.  The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who lost Ben Simmons to a season-ending injury in the bubble and Joel Embiid is nursing a hand injury.  The Celtics will make easy work of the short-handed 76ers in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this year.  Philadelphia is 6-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2 years.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Boston.

7* Blazers/Grizzlies *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 232

The Key: There’s always more defense played in playoff games.  And given what’s at stake here for these teams with win or go home for Memphis, defense will be played at a high level.  The 1st meeting between these teams this season saw just 215 combined points.  The 2nd meeting did have 275 combined points, but that was in overtime.  I think we see a similar result to the first meeting given the situation.  Memphis is 18-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 110+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Memphis is 12-1 UNDER in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* Blazers/Nets TNT *BAILOUT* on Brooklyn +10

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are 5-2 since the restart and on the verge of making the playoffs, but those 5 wins all came by 10 points or less.  In fact, all 7 of their games have been decided by 10 points or less thus far.  Brooklyn is playing too well right now to be catching this many points.  The Nets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Three of those wins came against playoff teams with upsets over Milwaukee as 19-point dogs, the Clippers as 9-point dogs and the Magic as 4.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take Brooklyn.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -2

The Key: The situation is a much better one for the Miami Heat than it is for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  The Heat are almost at full strength with the exception of Kendrick Nunn.  The Thunder are without Schroder and likely to be without Gilgeous-Alexander, Adams and Gallinari again tonight.  The Heat should be much bigger favorites given their advantage in the health department.  The Thunder are likely to not take any chances here with their injured players.  Take Miami.

7* Blazers/Mavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -4.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in 9th place, but just a half-game ahead of both Phoenix and San Antonio.  Whoever finishes 8th and 9th will be in a playoff to be the 8th seed.  This game matters a lot more to Portland than it does Dallas, which all but appears locked into 7th.  And the Mavericks could be without both Doncic and Porzingis again tonight after both sat out last game for precautionary reasons.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and will continue their stellar play tonight as they make their push to make the playoffs.  Take Portland.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -9.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since the restart to pull within a half-game of the 9th spot in the West.  They are trying desperately to make the playoffs and are handling the pressure of the situation well.  The Philadelphia 76ers are looking to get healthy before the playoffs as that is their top priority right now.  They were already without Ben Simmons for the season, and now both Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson have been ruled out tonight.  Plus Al Horford and Tobias Harris are questionable with ankle injuries.  They are looking at essentially sitting their entire starting 5 for this one.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Phoenix.

6* Lakers/Nuggets Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Denver +5

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers already have the top seed in the West and can’t be trusted to be laying points tonight.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games while losing those 3 games by a combined 40 points.  The Denver Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and are getting healthier.  They have more incentive to play well than the Lakers do right now as the Nuggets are fighting for playoff positioning in the crowded West.  Take Denver.

7* Raptors/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS since the restart and playing with a sense of urgency.  The Milwaukee Bucks already have the top seed in the East and are not playing with a sense of urgency at all.  The Bucks are just 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their 5 games since the restart.  Take Toronto.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies +7

The Key: No analysis Sunday.

6* Lakers/Pacers TNT *CA$H COW* on Indiana +7

The Key: The Lakers have clinched the top seed in the West and don’t have anything to play for.  They are playing like it as they have gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS since the restart with 2 straight blowout losses to OKC by 19 and Houston by 16.  They should not be 7-point favorites against the Pacers today.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since the restart and trying to improve its seeding in the East.  The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing their 4th road game in 7 days.  Take Indiana.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -1.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz will be playing for a second consecutive day after falling 111-119 to San Antonio yesterday.  And it’s unsure whether Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Royce O’Neale will play today.  The Jazz are already without Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG.  They aren’t very deep and will struggle against the rested Nuggets, who had yesterday off.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take Denver.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The Key: The Pelicans are in must-win mode trying to make the playoffs in the West.  The Washington Wizards are 0-4 since the restart and won’t be making the playoffs.  They will find it hard to be motivated from here on out.  The Wizards have lost all 4 games by 8 points or more, and that’s all it will take for the Pelicans to cover this spread tonight.  Washington hasn’t even been competitive due to all of their injuries.  New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Wizards are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Key: I like the situation for the Blazers tonight.  They are pushing to make the playoffs and playing every game like a must-win.  The Denver Nuggets are just playing for playoff positioning.  And the Nuggets will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a tough 132-126 win over San Antonio last night, while Portland had yesterday off.  Take Portland.

7* Nets/Celtics ESPN *BAILOUT* on Boston -8.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets just pulled off the biggest upset in NBA history with their 119-116 win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 19-point dogs.  The Nets are down to the last players on their bench, and the Bucks were sitting starters at crucial points in the game because they already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up.  The Nets will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is an even worse situation for them than most teams given how short-handed they are.  And it’s a letdown spot off such a big win.  The Celtics will be focused after starting 1-2 out of the break with losses to Milwaukee by 7 and Miami by 6.  They are playing for playoff positioning and want to keep a Top 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee in the 2nd round.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Blazers TNT *BAILOUT* on Portland +4

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 2 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the West.  They need wins more than the Houston Rockets, who are simply playing for playoff positioning.  After 2 narrow wins by a combined 8 points in their last 2 games, the Rockets will run out of luck tonight.  The Blazers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Houston in 2020 with a 10-point win as 8.5-point dogs and a 13-point win as 5-point dogs.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  The Blazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Portland.

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -4.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Pelicans.  They have dropped their first 2 games back and sit 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed.  They have to be within 4 games of the 8th place team to get a play-in game.  They catch the Grizzlies at a good time as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be plenty rested after getting blown out by the Clippers on Saturday.  The Pelicans are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Memphis this year winning 126-116 and 139-111.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* Mavs/Suns NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +6

The Key: The Phoenix Suns need wins more right now as they are trying to stay alive for the 8th seed in the West.  The Dallas Mavericks are simply playing for playoff positioning.  The Suns looked great in their 125-112 win over Washington.  They had 6 players score in double figures in that win and play well together as a team.  And I like them to give the Mavericks a run for their money today.  The Suns won 133-104 as 7-point dogs in their last meeting at Dallas on January 28th.  Take Phoenix.

7* Jazz/Thunder NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -2

The Key: The Utah Jazz are without their 2nd-leading scorer in Bojan Bogdonavic, who averages over 20 PPG.  They were able to escape with a come from behind 106-104 win over the Pelicans in their opener.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Oakland City Thunder, who are fully healthy for the restart.  The Thunder are 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -2.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Jazz/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2 

The Key: The Pelicans won all 3 of their scrimmages and are now 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They are completely healthy and loaded for this restart.  The same cannot be said for the Jazz, who are without Bojan Bogdonovic (20.2 PPG) for the remainder of the season after he had wrist surgery in May.  The Pelicans need wins more as they are on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.  Take New Orleans. 

6* UNC/Syracuse ACC *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -3 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with their only loss coming at Duke in a game they were competitive for 38 minutes.  Their 4 wins have come by 12.8 PPG including their 78-56 win over Virginia Tech yesterday.  It was basically a home game for the Tar Heels played in Greensboro.  And the blowout allowed them to get their starters some rest and stay fresh for Syracuse today.  This is a Syracuse team that UNC just beat 92-79 on the road on February 29th.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS against teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this year.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a win by more than 20 points. The Tar Heels are 9-0 SU in their last 9 matchups with Syracuse with all 9 wins by 4 points or more.  Take North Carolina. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be nearly double-digit underdogs to the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They beat Alabama 87-79 as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina 83-74 as 5-point home dogs to close out the season.  And they are now 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.  Arkansas is just 4-9 ATS on the highway this year and this will basically be a road game for the Razorbacks being played in Nashville.  The Razorbacks have lost 5 straight road games by 8, 10, 14, 21 and 4 points.  Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 75 or more points in 2 straight games.  They are yielding 88.7 PPG in their last 3 games and cannot be trusted to get enough stops defensively to cover this huge number.  Take Vanderbilt. 

6* Nuggets/Mavericks ESPN *CA$H COW* on Denver -1 

The Key: This is a bad situation for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 7th game in 11 days after a 109-119 loss in San Antonio last night.  They are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and are struggling due to injuries. Luka Doncic is playing through a wrist injury that is clearly hampering him, and they have 5 other players either out or questionable tonight.  The Nuggets are fully healthy and had yesterday off.  The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 matchups with the Mavericks.  Dallas is 4-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Denver.