Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat pk
The Key: Miami hasn't lost consecutive games since early January. It is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following a defeat, and I expect this trend to continue. It is also worth noting that the Heat are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games, and that Indiana is 3-11 ATS this season following a win by 6 points or less. The Pacers have actually lost by an average of 2.3 points in this situation. In addition, road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they are playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 25-6 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting this situation are winning by 6.6 points on average. LeBron James failed down the stretch in Game 2, but I don't see it happening again. Plus, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh won't shoot a combined 42.8% from the field again. Both players shot over 50% during the regular season. I also expect the Heat to pick up the defensive intensity after allowing Indiana to shoot 50.0% in Game 2. Take Miami.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Grizzlies -5.5
The Key: This is basically a must-win game for Memphis given the history of teams facing 0-3 deficits, and I expect it to rise to the occasion. The Grizzlies erased a 13-point 4th-quarter deficit in Game 2 and nearly pulled it out in overtime despite shooting only 34.0% from the field. The comeback speaks volumes about what this team is capable of doing defensively, and I believe it will tighten the screws even more in Game 3. Down 0-2 to the Clippers in the first round, Memphis responded with a 94-82 home win in Game 3 and never lost again in the series. After losing Game 1 to the Thunder, it bounced back to win four straight. You can be rest assured that Memphis still believes it can win this series. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, the home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with a 9.4-point average winning margin. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -7
The Key: Indiana did everything it wanted to do in Game 1, and it still wasn't enough. Not winning that game will come back to haunt the Pacers as I believe the Heat will take things up a notch tonight. Miami is going to shoot 27.8% from 3-point range again tonight. This is a team that averages 39.8% from long range at home on the season. The Heat aren't going to shoot 64.0% from the foul line either. They average 77.0% from the charity stripe at home. I also don't see Miami committing 20 turnovers again considering they average just 13.0 a game. The Heat are 42-5 at home on the season and have won these games by an average score of 105.7 to 94.9. The home team is 4-0 in the last meetings between these teams with these wins coming by an average of 9.5 points. Also, Miami is 7-1 in its last 8 home games versus the Pacers with the wins coming by an average of 14.0 points. Miami is 32-18 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, and Indiana is 8-17 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -7.5
The Key: Miami came out flat in Game 1 of its last series and lost that game to Chicago. It also found itself in a 2-1 hole in last year's playoff series with Indiana. Both of these things assure us the Heat will be very focused heading into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The home team went 3-0 during the regular season with each of these wins coming by at least 10 points. Miami won its lone regular season home game against the Pacers by 14 points. It is 6-1 in its last 7 home games against the Pacers with the 6 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points. Indiana has struggled on the road all season. It is just 2-6 in its last 8 road games with all of the losses coming by double digits. The Pacers are 7-17 ATS this season in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. They are 8-19 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons while Miami is 32-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Heat are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies +5.5
The Key: Memphis is incredibly resilient. It has lost consecutive games just once in these playoffs, and it lost by only 2 points in that second loss. Those 2 defeats came in its first two playoff games. The Grizzlies are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS since. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. 3 of 4 regular-season meetings between these teams were decided by 4 points or fewer, and I expect another close game here as the Grizzlies, who are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, tighten the screws defensively. The Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They are also 17-5 ATS under coach Hollins when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs -4.5
The Key: The Grizzlies are 0-2 in Game 1s in these playoffs, losing them by an average of 11.5 points, while the Spurs are 2-0 in Game 1s, winning them by an average of 7.0 points. The biggest reason why the Spurs have jumped out to 1-0 series leads is because they've played their Game 1s at home where they are 39-7 on the season. The Grizzlies have played both of theirs on the road. Home court has certainly mattered when these two do battle as the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 8.0 points. The Spurs are 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus the Grizzlies and have won these by an average of 10.2 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers Over 178.5
The Key: Plays on the over on all teams that check in off a road loss of 10 points or more and are playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 82-38 since 1996 when the total 179.5 points or less. This system is a perfect 5-0 the last 3 seasons. The over is also 11-2 in the Pacers' last 13 games following a loss and 6-2 in their last 8 home games. We saw 160 total points in Game 5, but Indiana was 19 of 33 from the free throw line and made just 6 3-point shots. It has made at least 8 3's in each of the first 4 games of the series. While I expect Indiana to shoot better at home, I also expect the Knicks to continue the offensive improvement they showed in Game 5. They know they need to push the ball to be successful. The pace should be faster tonight than it was in the previous two games in Indiana. Take the Over.

7* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Knicks -5
The Key: Back home and needing a win to stay alive, I fully expect the Knicks to rise to the occasion. Indiana won Games 3 and 4 at home by double digits, but the Knicks are on a 22-8 ATS run when checking in off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. Plus, the home team is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings. These 8 wins have come by an average of 14.6 points with all of them coming by at least 5. It is also worth noting that the Knicks are 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -4
The Key: The defending Western Conference champs aren't going to go down without a fight. They are down 1-3 in the series but could easily be up 3-1 had Kevin Durant been able to close out games. Durant can't be at all happy with how he's performed late in games, and I expect him to respond tonight as he feeds off the energy of the home crowd. The Thunder are an impressive 16-6 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss. They have won by an average score of 106.4 to 94.0 in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +14.5
The Key: The Bulls aren't winning this series, but this game is about pride. They were brutally embarrassed last time out as Miami held them to 25.7% shooting and 65 points. Chicago will leave it all on the floor tonight to save face and to make Miami earn the "W". The Bulls are an awesome 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing with triple revenge. The Heat are 0-7 ATS in home games this season following 2 or more consecutive road wins. They have won in this situation, but only by 2.0 points on average. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Warriors/Spurs Over 194.5
The Key: These teams have finished under the total in 3 consecutive games as each has shot below 40% twice during this stretch. I don't see the cold shooting continuing. Offensively, Golden State has been just as good on the road this season. It averages 101.7 ppg on the road, which is what it averages on the season. However, it isn't nearly as good defensively on the road where it has allowed 103.5 ppg. The Spurs are much better offensively at home where they average 104.5 ppg on 49.1% shooting. 13 of the last 15 meetings between these teams in San Antonio have gone over the posted total for this game. Take the Over.

7* Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +5.5
The Key: The Pacers held the Knicks to only 71 points in Game 3, but there is plenty of history supporting a bounce-back from New York tonight. Road teams that check in off a road loss where they were held to less than 80 points, provided they are playing 6 games or less in 14 days, are 27-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Knicks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game while the Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. New York is also a fantastic 33-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +4.5
The Key: I expect the Thunder to even this series tonight, but I'll take the points for insurance. Oklahoma City has lost 3 consecutive games only once this season, and it lost the third game during that stretch by just 3 points on the road versus Houston. The Thunder have lost consecutive games 3 other times and responded with a win in each of these instances. OKC has been very resilient over the years, as evidenced by the fact its 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a loss. The Thunder have also been outstanding in revenge spots, going 106-66 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent under coach Brooks. They are 45-28 ATS under Brooks when playing with double revenge. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are on a 49-31 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Under 187
The Key: The Bulls hang their hat on defense so they are not at all happy with the fact they have allowed Miami to shoot 60% and 50% the last two games. Having had two days to rest and prepare, and knowing they need a win here to have a chance at winning the series, I expect a tremendous defensive effort from the Bulls. The under is 4-0 in the Bulls' last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is also 9-1 under the last two seasons off a home loss by 10 points or more. It's also worth noting that the Bulls are on a 31-15 unders run when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 100 points or more on them. The extra rest should help Miami's defense too. The under is 7-1 in the Heat's last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Plus, Miami won't be able to keep up its hot shooting. It's on a 34-16 unders run following 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better. Take the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors +1.5
The Key: I expect the Warriors to bounce back here. They will be lacking no confidence because of how well they performed in the first two games of the series. Plus, I believe they'll be the fresher team. This will be the fourth game in six days for these teams, which favors the more youthful Warriors. Stephen Curry is listed as probable, but I believe Golden State has enough fire power to get the job done even if he's limited by his ankle. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. The Warriors are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 day of rest while the Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take Golden State.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4
Bottom Line: The Pacers were crushed in Game 2 as they turned the ball over 21 times and gave up 10 3-point makes. Look for them to come storming back in Game 3 as they take better care of the rock and tighten the screws on their perimeter defense. Indiana only averages 14 turnovers at home on the season. Also, it ranked No. 1 in the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage defense during the regular season, limiting foes to 32.7% from beyond the arc. The Pacers have held the Knicks to 4 and 5 3-point makes, respectively, in their last 2 visits to Indiana. The Pacers are 14-5 ATS in home games this season versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 101.4 to 89.3. This trend says a lot about how well they defend the 3-point shot. The Pacers are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings with all 6 wins coming by at least 5 points. Mike Woodson's teams are 4-15 ATS all-time in road playoff games. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +5
The Key: I'll gladly take the points with the Thunder as they are the more talented offensive team (even without Westbrook) and just as good, if not better, than Memphis defensively. The Thunder held opponents to 42.5 percent shooting during the regular season. That mark was good for No. 2 in the league. Memphis held foes to 43.5 percent. The Thunder won 2 of 3 in Houston without Westbrook in their first series, and I like their chances here even against a better defensive team. After all, Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS under coach Brooks in road games versus team that hold their opponents to 91.0 ppg or less. The Thunder have defeated these teams by an average score of 98.6 to 90.8. It's also worth noting that the Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record, and the road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs +2.5
The Key: The Spurs are fortunate to be level at 1-1 in the series as they are yet to play well. They've allowed Golden State to shoot 48.1 percent while they've shot just 41.6 percent. I expect that to change tonight. After suffering its first defeat of the playoffs, I expect this veteran San Antonio bunch to play with a heightened sense of urgency and purpose. The Spurs are a proud bunch, and they aren't about to roll over for the new kids on the block. I'm confident they will really pick things up on the defensive end. Plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they are playing no more than their 3rd game in 10 days, are 24-6 ATS since 1996. The Spurs are 11-1 ATS the last 2 seasons following an upset loss at home and 14-4 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent. The Spurs have won 7 of their last 9 at Golden State. One of those losses came in OT. The other came in a game Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobli didn't play in. Take the points.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Warriors/Spurs Under 204.5
The Key: 212 total points were scored in regulation in Game 1, but I'm confident these teams won't come close to that tonight. The Spurs allowed Golden State to shoot 51% from the field, a figure that is completely unacceptable in their book. Prior to Game 1, these two hadn't exceeded 197 total points in their previous three meetings in San Antonio while the Spurs held the Warriors to 46.2% shooting or worse in each. It is also worth noting that these two combined for 24 3-point makes in Game 1. That's 8 more than they average combined. The Spurs are 7-2 Under in their last 9 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also 12-2 Under this season in home games after scoring 105 points or more. Lastly, plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 that have gone over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 43-12 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total for these games has been 204.1, but the teams fitting into this situation have combined for only 197.5 points on average. This system is 8-1 this season. Take the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -12
The Key: Miami looked like a team that hadn't played a game in a week in Game 1. It shot 39.7% from the field and was outrebounded badly. I expect Game 1 to serve as a wake-up call for the defending champs. While this may seem like a lot of points to lay, consider that Chicago was blown out twice in Brooklyn in its opening series by 17 and 19 points. Also, consider that Miami has two wins of 12 points or more against Chicago this season. By coming back with a line this large, the books clearly want the money coming in on the Bulls. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks -6
The Key: Look for the Knicks to bounce back strong tonight. They have already lost the home-court advantage and know they can't afford to be down 0-2 heading to Indiana so I expect a very inspired performance from them here. One loss doesn't buck a trend. The home team has still won 5 of the last 6 meetings with the wins coming by 13.8 points on average. The Knicks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. The New York defense wasn't up to snuff in Game 1, allowing the Pacers to score 102 points on 48.7 percent shooting. I expect that to change tonight. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also 12-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that they allowed to score 100 points or more. The Knicks are 28-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs -8.5
The Key: The Spurs have a huge advantage in terms of freshness and preparation as they haven't played since Apr. 28. The Spurs made easy work of the Lakers, which had no answer for their balanced offensive attack. I expect a Golden State team that allows 103.2 ppg on the road to struggle to stop the Spurs tonight. San Antonio, on the other hand, holds its foes to just 93.9 ppg at home. Much has been made of Stephen Curry and these Warriors, but San Antonio is very deep and very experienced. I don't expect Curry to be as effective in this series as Tony Parker is one of the quickest players in the NBA. Having to defend Parker will really wear out Curry, which will affect him at the offensive end. The Spurs are 29-0 in their last 29 home games versus Golden State, winning these by an average of 16.8 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks -5.5
The Key: We saw Indiana's road struggles in the first round, losing two of three in Atlanta by double digits. In fact, the Pacers are just 6-15 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. New York, on the other hand, is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus winning teams, including 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Knicks are also 28-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, including 19-8 ATS during this span as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with these wins coming by 13.8 points. It is significant that New York held the Pacers to 80 points in the most recent meeting because Indiana is 0-7 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where it was held to 85 points or less. Lay the points.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Nets Under 181.5
The Key: Expect a defensive battle to come in under the number in this win-and-advance Game 7. Consider that plays "under" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied, provided it is a matchup of two teams with winning records, are 34-14 (70.8%) the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 54-31 "under" when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent under coach Thibodeau. While I expect Chicago to bring the "D", it will be challenged offensively. Leading scorer Luol Deng is expected to miss with an illness, and Kirk Hinrich, who leads the team with 5.2 assists per game, is listed as questionable with a calf injury. The Bulls know they don't stand a chance if the game turns into a track meet so I expect them to take the air out of the ball nearly every possession. That's how they won Game 2 in Brooklyn when just 172 total points were scored. Bet the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder +1
The Key: Russell Westbrook's injury has made a lopsided series more interesting, but I believe Kevin Durant and company will get the job done tonight. Only three times in NBA history has a team rallied from an 0-3 deficit to even force a seventh game, and it hasn't happened since 2003. The Thunder won Game 3 in Houston without Westbrook so they won't be lacking confidence. Plus, it's about time that coach Kevin McHale's strategy to double Durant backfires. Durant's going to get his teammates open shots, and I expect them to do a better job of knocking them in tonight. I expect a much better game from Kevin Martin, who reached double figures in scoring in each of the first four games of the series before scoring only 3 points on 1 of 10 shooting in Game 5. He very well could be the difference-maker for Oklahoma City tonight. The Thunder are 41-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses under coach Brooks. They are also 42-23 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. Lastly, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Thunder.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +6.5
The Key: The Clippers have lost three straight since winning the first two games of the series, but I expect them to take Memphis right down to the wire in this do-or-die Game 6. This is a lot of points for L.A. to be catching even if Blake Griffin isn't able to go. The Clippers are still the more talented team offensively, and they are capable of playing better defense. They ranked in the top 10 in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense during the regular season, and I expect a very strong effort defensively in this elimination game. The two days in between games should help as the Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Clipps are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. L.A. is 39-24 ATS the last two seasons when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent, and this trend tightens up to 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge. They have won by an average score of 97.5 to 92.5 in these 25 instances. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks pk
The Key: Boston has saved face by winning the last two games, but only three times in NBA history has a team rallied from an 0-3 deficit to even force a seventh game, and it hasn't happened since 2003. The Boston defense hasn't been forcing turnovers. The Knicks have been dominating the turnover battle, which is a big reason why they took a 3-0 lead. It is a good sign that they had just 8 turnovers last game because Boston is 0-7 ATS this season following a game where it forced 8 turnovers or fewer. It has lost by an average score of 101.9 to 94.7 in these spots. Because New York is winning the turnover battle, it comes down to making shots. The Knicks have shot under 40% the last two games and still managed to play Boston close. New York is the more talented, more youthful, deeper team, and I'm willing to bet its shots fall tonight. Take New York.

7* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Nets/Bulls Under 184
The Key: The Bulls hang their hat on defense. This is a team that ranked 29th in scoring with 93.2 ppg during the regular season but third in scoring defense with 92.9 ppg allowed. After holding the Nets around 35% shooting in Games 2 and 3, the Bulls have allowed them to shoot around 50% in Games 4 and 5. They especially can't be happy with the Game 5 performance because they had an opportunity to close out the series. Rest assured, Chicago will tighten the screws with an opportunity to win the series in front of their home fans. Coach Tom Thibodeau is known as a defensive guru, and the Bulls are 17-4 Under when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent under his watch. They are also 11-2 Under since coach Thibs took over after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games. Bet the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -7
The Key: Home court has been huge when these two Eastern Conference foes get together. The home team is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.6 points. The Pacers' 4 home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 12.3 points. Going back even further, we find that the home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and the favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Hawks are on a 10-26 ATS slide in road playoff games. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -7.5
The Key: The Nuggets have lost 3 in a row and are now on the brink of elimination, but I fully expect them to respond at home where they are 39-4 on the season with a 10.0-point average margin of victory. Denver is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing with triple revenge and has won by an average of 10.9 points in these spots. Golden State, on the other hand, is 9-18 ATS this season after 2 or more consecutive wins and 2-12 ATS the last 2 seasons off 2 or more consecutive home wins. It is also 9-22 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. We saw the way Brooklyn and Houston responded on their home floors while facing elimination last night, and I believe Denver will rise to the occasion as well. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Rockets +2
The Key: The Rockets took the Thunder down to the wire in games 2 and 3, and I expect them to break through win a win tonight. Houston is showing terrific value as a home underdog considering it is 11-2 ATS all-time when catching points at home under coach Kevin McHale. This trend tightens up to a perfect 8-0 ATS if they're catching 3 points or fewer. They have won these 8 contests by an average score of 104.8 to 98.6. The Thunder jumped out to a 20-point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, but the Rockets actually won quarters 2-4. Houston continues its solid play tonight and earns the "W".

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers +2
The Key: Expect the Pacers to respond following the beat-down they received in Game 3. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, road teams like Indiana that are coming off a blowout loss of 15 points or more are 70-39 ATS the last 5 seasons as long as they outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game. The Hawks are 3-12 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a blowout win of 15 points or more and 1-12 ATS this season in home games following a home win. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nets -5.5
The Key: I expect the Nets to take care of business at home in this do-or-die Game 5. Chicago won Game 4 in triple-OT but will pay for it here as it is the more banged-up team. Kirk Hinrich, who had 18 points and 14 assists in over 59 minutes in Game 4, is listing as questionable due to a left calf issue. He is so important to the Bulls. It will be a huge blow if he can't go, and it's still a big blow if he plays at less than 100 percent. Joakim Noah is probable, but is battling chronic pain in his right foot, pain that has to be increased after the stress he put on it in Game 4. The Bulls have been a poor investment all season following a cover. In fact, they are 13-24 ATS this season following an ATS victory. More recently, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win while the Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -118
The Key: Following back-to-back defeats, I expect the Nuggets to want this one just a little bit more. They are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss. Plus, Golden State is only 11-23 ATS under coach Mark Jackson following 2 or more consecutive wins. It has lost by an average score of 102.8 to 99.1 in this situation. It is also worth noting the Denver is 37-21 ATS under coach George Karl when out for revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. The Nuggets have won by an average score of 104.6 to 98.4 in this situation. The Warriors have shot out of their minds the past two games, and I don't think they can keep it up as Denver tightens the screws on the defensive end. I also like the fact Denver is turning over Golden State at a high rate and is scoring off those turnovers. Take the Nuggets.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks Under 190.5
The Key: The first two games of this series have gone way over. We saw 197 points in Game 1 and 211 in Game 2. In fact, we have seen at least 194 total points scored between these teams in five straight meetings. Judging by the number, the books clearly want the action on the over. I'm not going to oblige them. The matchups in Atlanta have been much lower scoring. These two have combined for 184 points or fewer in 4 of the last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Indiana is 55-37 under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is on a 27-9 unders run in home playoff games and a 19-6 unders run in first round in home playoff games. The Hawks are also on a 22-8 unders run in home games following 2 consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. Additionally, playing the under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, provided they are playing 4 games or fewer in a 10-day span, carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing against a team that has a winning record, are 144-84 since 1996. This system is a perfect 6-0 this season. Bet the under.

7* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Hawks -137
The Key: I love Atlanta to win this game. Indiana has struggled on the road throughout the season. In fact, it's just 5-13 ATS this season in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. It has lost these contests by 6.3 points on average. It is also worth noting that the Pacers are 1-8 ATS this season as a road underdog of 3 points or less and have lost these games by an average of 5.9 points. The Pacers are even on a 3-13 ATS slide in road games following 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. They have lost by an average of 5.5 points in this situation. The home team has dominated this matchup. The home side is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with these wins coming by 10.2 points on average. Going back further, the home team is 11-1 in the last 12. Lastly, and most importantly, the Hawks are 11-0 in their last 11 home games versus Indiana. These 11 victories have come by an average of 10.7 points. Take the Hawks.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers +5
The Key: The Lakers will be without Steve Blake, and Steve Nash and Jodie Meeks are currently listed as doubtful. Still, L.A. is showing value catching this many points at home where it is 6-0 in its last 6 with a 6.8-point average winning margin. In addition, L.A. is 13-1 in its last 14 at home with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. Since that loss was within the number listed for this matchup, we have a perfect 14-0 trend on our hands here. It is worth noting that one of the Lakers' recent home wins came as a 3.5-point dog against the Spurs. The Lakers won that game without Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash and with poor games from Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace. While L.A. could be shorthanded in the backcourt, I'm a big believer in Darius Morris. He is a good passer and with enough talent and court-savvy to get Gasol and Dwight Howard the ball in good scoring positions. Chris Duhon is a terrific defender, and Andrew Goudelock, the D-League MVP, will be out to prove he's an NBA-caliber player when his number is called. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics -2.5
The Key: The Celtics have dropped the first two games of the series in New York, but they are a completely different team at home where they have won 14 of their last 18. They are 13-5 ATS in these games. Boston has also won 13 of its last 15 at home versus the Knicks. The Knicks have plenty of scoring power, but Boston is much better defensively at home where it is holding opponents to just 93.9 ppg on 42.8% shooting. The C's are also much better offensively at home where they are scoring 98.5 ppg on 47.7% shooting. This is a big reason why Boston is 9-1 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games played in the second half of the season versus good offensive teams that average 99.0 points or more per game. The Celtics have won these contests by an average score of 97.3 to 88.5. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by coach Mike Woodson are 2-14 ATS all-time in road playoff games and 1-5 ATS all-time in the third game of a series. Lay the points.

6* Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Memphis -4.5
The Key: Down 0-2, it's do-or-die time for the Memphis given the history of teams facing a 0-3 deficit, and I expect it to play like its life depends on it in front of the home fans tonight. The Grizzlies faced a 1-3 deficit in last year's playoff series with the Clippers and clawed their way back to force a Game 7 so they believe they are still very much alive. The Grizzlies have won 14 of their last 15 at home with the 14 wins coming by an average of 8.9 points. They are 25-12 ATS the last 3 seasons after 2 or more consecutive losses, 31-16 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing with double revenge, 8-0 ATS this season in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games and 34-18 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Clippers/Grizzlies Under 180
The Key: The first two games of the series have gone over the total as Memphis allowed the Clippers to shoot 55.4% and 47.4% from the field. The Grizzlies can't be happy with those defensive performances. We're talking about a team that finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in scoring defense (89.3 ppg allowed), No. 2 in 3-point field goal percentage defense (33.8%) and No. 3 in overall field goal percentage defense (43.5%). Rest assured, the Grizzlies will pick up the "D" at home and this one will find its way under as a result. The Memphis defense has been awesome at home where it had held opponents to an average of 87.0 points on 42.7% shooting. Losing has certainly perpetuated better defensive play for Memphis as it is 15-5 under the last 2 seasons after 2 or more consecutive losses. Revenge is another angle that has jump started the "D". Consider that Memphis is 11-2 under in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. Lastly, the Grizzlies have been at their best defensively when rested. They are 12-1 under this season when playing just 4 or less games in 10 days. They have held their opponents to just 82.6 points on average in this spot. The under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies' last 4 home games and 17-5 in their last 22 versus the Western Conference. Take the Under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Pacers Under 187
The Key: We've seen at least 194 total points scored in each of the past 4 meetings between these two and oddsmakers have come up with a total of 187. They clearly expect a defensive battle tonight, and I completely agree. We saw 197 total points scored in Game 1, but Game 1 had several aberrations. For starters, Atlanta shot 50% from the field against the NBA's top field goal percentage defense. The Pacers limited foes to 42% shooting during the regular season. I don't expect the Hawks to shoot that well again. I also don't expect the Pacers to go 30 of 34 from the free throw line. They average just 18 makes on 24 attempts from the charity stripe per game. If Indiana just makes it average in Game 1, we would have seen just 185 total points scored. Playing the under when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points on teams that are well rested (3 or less games in 10 days), provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning teams, are 34-13 the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 186.0, but teams have combined to score just 183.6 points on average in this situation. Also, the under is 6-2 in the Hawks' last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-2 in the Pacers' last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawks +7
The Key: The Hawks lost Game 1 by 17 points but have to like their chances heading into Game 2 considering they shot 50% from the field against the NBA's top field goal percentage defense. The Pacers won the game on the free throw line and on the glass. They made 30 of 34 free throws, but I don't see that happening again. They only average 18 free throw makes per game on 24 attempts. Atlanta will make a concerted effort not to put Indiana on the line as much. Indiana held a sizable advantage on the glass, but Atlanta can narrow the gap by keeping the Pacers off the offensive boards. The Hawks were outrebounded 15-6 on the offensive glass. Just sending the Pacers to the line fewer times will go a long way toward Atlanta winning this game. The Hawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 18-7 ATS under coach Drew in road games when out for revenge for a loss a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 94.2 to 92.7 in these spots. The Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -8
The Key: The Nuggets were fortunate to come away with a win in Game 1, but that close call will serve as a wake-up call. They are now 39-3 this season at home where they carry an average winning margin of 10.6 points. They are 24-0 in their last 24 at home and have won these by 12.0 points on average. Denver threw a lot of different looks at Stephen Curry in Game 1, and it worked to disrupt his rhythm as he finished with just 19 points on 7 of 20 shooting. With David Lee being lost for the season with a hip injury, the Nuggets will be able to focus on Curry even more. Denver is also 4-0 in its last 4 home games versus Golden State and has won these by an average of 15.8 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Bailout on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 181.5
The Key: Memphis allowed the Clippers to shoot 55.4% from the field in Game 1, but I fully expect it to tighten the screws here. The Grizzlies finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the NBA in field goal percentage defense, allowing only 43.5% shooting, and they had held the Clippers to 46.2% shooting or worse in each of the previous three meetings. Each of those 3 came in under this number as a result. In fact, prior to Game 1, 6 of the previous 7 meetings between these two had come in under the posted total. Home teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points if they average 99.0 points or more per game and are coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more are 54-23 under since 1996. This system is 14-3 under the last 3 seasons and a perfect 3-0 under this season. Also, the Grizzlies are 13-4 under the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. Take the Under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Nets Under 183.5
The Key: The Bulls allowed Brooklyn to shoot 55.8% from the field in Game 1. That was an uncharacteristic performance to say the least considering the Bulls entered the playoffs ranked 9th in the NBA in field goal percentage defense, holding its foes to 44.3%. I expect a much better defensive effort from Chicago tonight and for this one to finish under as a result. The Bulls are 16-4 under the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. Chicago is also 19-6 under the last 3 seasons after allowing 105 points or more in their last game. Prior to Game 1, these two had combined to finish under the current total in 5 straight. Take the Under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +5
The Key: Motivated by a disappointing performance in the first game of the series, Chicago will bounce back strong tonight. Prior to the Game 1 loss, the Bulls had won or lost by fewer than 4.5 points in 4 straight and 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Nets. The Bulls won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season so they clearly have what it takes to even this series. Chicago has been extremely resilient since Tom Thibodeau took over. In fact, it is 50-31 ATS under his watch after 1 or more consecutive losses. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by PJ Calesimo are 1-12 ATS in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. His teams have lost by an average of 7.0 points in these spots. Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Spurs -8.5
The Key: The Lakers closed the regular season on a 5-game win streak that included a 91-86 win over San Antonio. They lost the season's first 2 meetings with the Spurs but both losses came by 5 points combined. With all this in mind, and the fact the San Antonio enters the playoffs on a 3-game slide, it hardly makes sense that the Spurs are laying this many points, or does it? Manu Ginobili is expected back for San Antonio. Plus, the regulars have had their minutes managed well down the stretch. The Lakers, on the other hand, don't have a deep bench and really had to push hard just to make the playoffs. The Spurs will be the much fresher team. The Lakers have covered the spread in their last two games, which means it's time to go the other way. That's because they are 0-9 ATS all-time under coach D'Antoni after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. The Lakers are also just 5-15 ATS as a road underdog under D'Antoni. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS at home in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams with a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 105.3 to 91.1. The Spurs will be ready. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -4.5
The Key: The Nets lost 3 of 4 against Chicago this season, and the lone win came by only 4 points. They just lost by 2 at home to the Bulls Apr. 4 yet they are laying 4.5 points? The books clearly like the Nets here, and I couldn't agree more. They are playing much better ball entering the playoffs, and they have a significant edge at the all-important point guard position with Deron Williams. The Nets are also the healthier team, and they have a lot more depth. The Bulls enter off a win but that was at home. They have lost 5 of their last 7 on the road. Plus, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. It is also worth noting that the Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest while the Bulls are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5
The Key: The Knicks are being overvalued here because of the tear they were on to finish the regular season. The books know the public will gravitate toward the Knicks, especially since they've won 3 straight against Boston and the last 2 wins were by double digits. The books are clearly looking to trap the public with this line. The Celtics will be lacking no confidence as they have a lot more big-game experience. Plus, they have won or lost by fewer than 6.5 points in 22 of their last 26 at Madison Square. Now, that's a 22-4 trend I can get behind. It's also worth noting that the Celtics are 52-34 ATS all-time under Doc Rivers as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. They are also 40-25 ATS under Rivers when playing with triple revenge. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets +2.5
The Key: There's a pretty good chance the Lakers will know their playoff fate before this one even gets underway as the Jazz play the Grizzlies at 8:00 PM ET. Utah must win to keep its playoff hopes alive but will likely come up short in Memphis against a team that still has a chance to secure home-court in the first round. The Lakers will be in the playoffs with a Utah loss and wouldn't have as much motivation to win as a result. Regardless, I like Houston to show up here and get the job done as it looks to erase the memory of Monday's ugly loss in Phoenix. Plus, the Rockets still have an opportunity to earn the sixth seed, which they want if at all possible to avoid the Thunder and Spurs. You want to fade home teams like the Lakers that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent if that foe checks in off an upset loss on the road. Doing so has produced a 76-35 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -6
The Key: The Hawks have had 3 days to rest up and prepare for this one and shouldn't be lacking any motivation with an opportunity to land the fifth seed in the East with wins tonight and tomorrow. Atlanta would much rather see Brooklyn in the first round than a defensive force like Indiana so I believe it will go after the fifth seed full steam ahead. Toronto has been playing well down the stretch, but this will be its third game in five nights so it will certainly be the more fatigued team. Plus, the Raptors are just 12-28 on the road this season and were smacked 107-88 in the most recent meeting. Keep in mind Toronto is just 2-10 ATS this season in road games when out for revenge of a same-season loss. It has lost by an average score of 107.8 to 94.5 in this situation. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavericks +4
The Key: The Mavs will miss the playoffs, but they haven't quit on the season. This veteran squad has a lot of pride and wants to finish with a winning record. "Even now, we're playing really for nothing, but it means something for us to be a winning team and hopefully we can finish with a winning season," Dirk Nowitzki said. Memphis has really struggled down the stretch on the road, going 4-6 in its last 10 away from home. It has won its last 2 on the road against Sacramento and Houston but neither win came by more than 4 points. The Grizzlies have had a terrible time in Dallas where they are 6-30 all-time. They have lost or won by fewer than 4 points in 15 straight meetings at Dallas. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +5.5
The Key: The Lakers won't have Kobe Bryant, but I believe they'll rally around his season-ending injury to give the Spurs a game. The Lakers are in desperation mode, unable to afford a loss as they lead Utah by only a game for the final playoff spot in the West. The Jazz hold the tie-breaker so the Lakers must finish with a better record to make the postseason. The Spurs still have a shot at the top seed in the West but are much more concerned about the health of the team and won't push to get it. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Lakers have lost both meetings with the Spurs this season but only by 5 points combined. Desperate teams are dangerous teams, and I'll take the points with the desperate team tonight.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +5
The Key: The Suns have a huge advantage in terms of freshness. They will be playing on 2 days' rest while the Timberwolves will be playing their 4th game in 5 days. Consider that fading home favorites that have lost at least 4 of their last 6 games has produced a 61-27 ATS record since 1996 if they are playing their 4th game in 5 days. These teams have been favored by an average of 5 points but have won by only 1.9 points on average. Also, the T-Wolves are just 8-19 ATS the last 2 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Suns were completely embarrassed the last time they faced Minnesota, losing 117-86 March 22. That loss will provide plenty of motivation here. It is worth noting that the Suns had won or lost by fewer than 5 points in 16 straight in the series prior to that loss. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hornets +9
The Key: The Clippers are getting too much respect on the road against a New Orleans squad that has won 4 of its last 6 at home. The Clippers have dropped 5 of their last 6 on the road. The Hornets were blown out in Sacramento last game but were in a letdown spot after playing the Lakers tough the night before. They have been a phenomenal investment following double-digit losses at 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 home meetings with the Clippers. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks +6.5
The Key: Atlanta has been overvalued at home all season, as evidence by its 14-23-2 ATS record. It has especially been overvalued lately ans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games as a result. The Hawks are even 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home versus teams that carry losing road marks. It is also worth noting that the Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Bucks are looking to create some momentum heading into the playoffs. Plus, they're out to avoid the season sweep. Take the points as Milwaukee shows up and gives Atlanta a game.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Pacers -5.5
The Key: We find the Pacers in an extremely motivated spot tonight. They can clinch the third seed in the Eastern Conference with a victory. Plus, they have lost the season's first two meetings with Brooklyn so they will be out to avoid the season sweep. Consider that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge against a team that checks in off an upset win over a division rival are 44-17 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting this system have been favored by 6.4 points on average but have won by an average of 11.9. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Bulls Under 191
The Key: Oddsmakers consistently and purposefully set the bar too high for these Thursday TNT contests because of the amount of betting attention they receive. That's why the Knicks have played to the under in 5 of their last 6 Thursday nighters and the Bulls are on a 40-19-2 Thursday night unders run. The Bulls have played to the under in 25 of 39 home games this season, which comes as no surprise because they have been excellent defensively at the United Center, holding opponents to 90.3 ppg on 43.3% shooting. It bodes well for us that the Bulls lost their last home game as they tend to pick up the "D" following a loss. They are 8-1 under this season in home games off a home loss, and we have seen only 174.4 total points scored on average in this situation. The Knicks have been hitting on all cylinders offensively and have gone over the number in their last two as a result. However, New York is 11-2 under the last 2 seasons in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs. The Knicks have lost all 3 meetings with the Bulls this season and gave up 110 and 108 points to them in the last 2 so I expect them to tighten the screws defensively as well. We saw just 178 total points scored when these 2 met in Chicago earlier this season, and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair here.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +5
The Key: The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season but are being overvalued because of it against a Chicago team that has had their number. The Bulls are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and 7-1 in the last 8. Their only loss during this span came by a single point. While the Knicks will be hungry for revenge, I don't expect them to walk away with a win in Chicago, where they have dropped 19 of 22, easily. Consider that fading favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have a winning record on the season and are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent that dropped 100 points or more on them has produced an 80-45 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Bulls are coming off back-to-back disappointing performance against Detroit and Toronto so I expect them to be every bit as hungry as the Knicks. Consider that Chicago is 19-6 ATS under coach Thibodeau when checking in off an upset loss at home. It has won by an average score of 95.6 to 85.5 in this situation. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in the series. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Chicago rose to the challenge to end Miami's winning streak, and I expect it to be up to the challenge against the Knicks as well.

7* NBA Game of the Year on Trail Blazers +6
The Key: The Lakers are fighting for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West but find themselves in an extremely tough situation tonight. They just had a tough one with New Orleans last night and will now face a Portland squad that has had two days' rest. The Lakers are 2-8 on the back end of games on back-to-back nights this season and are on a 0-15 slide when trying to win two games on consecutive nights. The Lakers have struggled immensely in Portland where they are 0-3 in their last 3 and 2-12 in their last 14. The Blazers have struggled down the stretch with injuries playing a part, but I fully expect them to show up here. In a season that won't end in the playoffs, they'll take great pride in trying to dash the Lakers' postseason hopes. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Wizards +10.5
The Key: The Knicks are being overvalued here due to the fact they've covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games. Off a very satisfying win at Oklahoma City, I expect New York to suffer a letdown.

Unlike some of the other teams that will be missing out on the postseason, the Wizards are playing out the season, and they'll be out for revenge for last month's 8-point home loss to the Knicks. Washington is an awesome 17-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 94.2 to 93.2 in this situation. It is also important to note that the Wizards are 12-4 ATS this season as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -4
The Key: I have ridden Michigan throughout the NCAA tournament, but I believe this is where it meets its match. No team in the country presses like Louisville. And even if its press doesn't yield turnovers, it will wear Michigan out. Anyone who has played against a press for 40 consecutive minutes knows the increased level of fatigue it causes. I have seen it time and time again with Louisville. It's like a switch is flipped. Once their opponent starts to wear down, the Cardinals pull away. I also like the fact that Louisville is the more experienced team. While Michigan does a good job of taking care of the rock, it's important to note that Louisville is still on a 19-9 ATS run 15 games or more into the season versus excellent ball handling teams that commit 12 turnovers or fewer per game. The Cards have won by an average score of 69.7 to 63.4 in this situation. Louisville has done an excellent job of taking care of the basketball, which means Michigan won't get much of anything easy. The Cards are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral court games the last 2 seasons after 4 straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers. They have won by an average score of 70.6 to 59.8 in this situation. Louisville is also a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and has won these by an average score of 73.5 to 58.7. Lastly, the Cards are 7-0 ATS the L2 seasons when playing a second game away from home in a span of 3 days. It has won by an average score of 76.4 to 61.7 in these spots. Louisville has won 15 in a row with all of those wins coming by at least 4 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers +3.5
The Key: Look for the Blazers to play with some pride tonight after getting hammered at home in their last two. Plus, they should be fresher than Dallas, which is playing its third road game in four days. The Blazers have been extremely competitive at home versus Dallas, winning or losing by 3 points or fewer in 6 of the last 7 meetings at the Rose Garden. The Mavs check in off a win in Sacramento but are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Trail Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Portland is also on a terrific 81-55 ATS run as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder -7.5
The Key: New York is in the midst of its best stretch of the season, but many of the wins during its current streak came against inferior opponents. The Knicks beat the Heat during this span, but keep in mind Miami was resting LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. They take a big step up in competition here. The Thunder have been nearly unbeatable at home, even against quality competition. In fact, they are 14-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. They have won these by an average score of 106.3 to 94.6. OKC is also 27-11 ATS as a home favorite this season and 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Thunder have never lost to the Knicks in Oklahoma City, winning each of the prior 4 meetings by an average of 10.3 points. Lay the number.

7* Final Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan -2
The Key: Michigan has what it takes to beat the Syracuse zone, and it starts with Trey Burke. It takes good point guard-play to beat a zone, and Burke is the best point guard in the country. Indiana was soft at the all-important point guard position as Ferrell and Hulls don't have Burke's ability to create. Marquette actually ran good offense against the zone but couldn

6* NBA Line Mistake on Rockets +6
The Key: The Rockets just played in Portland last night while the Nuggets had the night off, but this will still be Denver's third game in four days so I don't expect it to have a big advantage in terms of fresh legs. Plus, Houston will be lacking no motivation here. It has lost each of the season's first three meetings so it will be looking to avoid being swept. Also, it still needs two wins to clinch a playoff spot. Furthermore, the Rockets are only one game behind Golden State for the sixth spot in the West. That's a spot I believe they want so they can avoid San Antonio and Oklahoma City. If they get it, they could be up against Denver in the first round so they need to send a message here. The Nuggets will be without Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari tonight, and that's huge as they are the team's top two scorers. They have combined for an average of 38.7 points in Denver's three wins over Houston this season so they will be missed. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Denver is getting too much respect here considering it is without its two best options and considering the level of motivation Houston brings into this game. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers +5.5
The Key: Portland has lost its last 6, but I fully expect it to give the Rockets all they want and more tonight. Portland's recent struggles have stemmed from the absence of LaMarcus Aldridge, but he's expected back tonight. He's helped the Blazers win 2 of the season's first 3 meetings with Houston while averaging 29.0 points on 53.5 percent shooting. The Rockets haven't had an answer for him. Portland is almost a blind play in the home underdog role as it is 101-73 ATS as a home underdog since 1996, including 81-54 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less during this span. They haven't been the same team on the road where they are on a 2-5 ATS skid. They are even 3-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. They have lost by an average score of 104.0 to 102.3 in these contests. The Trail Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record, and the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +8
The Key: The Warriors are being overvalued on the road where they are on a 3-10 ATS slide. They have won their last 2 SU and ATS but are 0-9 ATS this season in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. They have lost by an average score of 104.3 to 92.4 in these spots. The Suns will be motivated here as they look to avoid being swept in the season series. Phoenix only lost by 2 points in this season's prior home meeting and has won or lost by only 2 points in each of the last 15 home meetings in the series. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks +7.5
The Key: The Knicks are being overvalued here due to a 10-game win streak, during which they have covered the spread 9 times. Milwaukee will be the more motivated team as it has lost the season's first two meetings by double digits and is yet to clinch a playoff berth, which it can do tonight with a win and a Philadelphia loss to Atlanta. The Bucks lost by 10 at New York in the most recent meeting but are 15-5 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Milwaukee has won by an average score of 99.9 to 93.9 in this situation. Also, the Bucks are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 road meetings in the series. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavs +7
The Key: This game is basically a must-win for the Mavs, who are 2 1/2 games back of the Lakers for the eighth spot in the West with only eight games left. So I expect them to come ready to play. Denver has rolled in its last two, but fading home teams off two straight wins by 10 points or more that are against an opponent that was held to 85 points or fewer last game has produced a 38-17 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have been favorites of 7.0 points on average but have won by only 2.0 points on average. Dallas was embarrassed by the Lakers last time out, but it is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss and even 18-6 ATS the last two seasons after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The Mavs have had a great deal of success against Denver. In fact, they have won 3 of the last 4 meetings by double digits. Also, the Mavericks are a 100% perfect 4-0 ATS in Denver the last 3 seasons, winning 3 of these straight up and losing the other by a single point. Dallas' success in Denver may come as a bit of a surprise, but it has been at its best against up-tempo teams, especially in the latter part of the season. The Mavs are 13-2 ATS in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game. Dallas has won by an average score of 108.0 to 101.9 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics -7.5
The Key: Boston has dropped 7 of 9, but I fully expect it to show up at home tonight with an opportunity to lock up a playoff spot and to exact revenge on Detroit. The Celtics can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Philadelphia loss. The Celtics have lost their last 4 to the Pistons so they will be hungry to say the least. Keep in mind that the last 3 losses in the series were at Detroit. The Celtics have won 4 of their last 5 at home in the series with the 4 wins coming by 13.0 points on average. Boston has also won 12 of its last 14 at home while Detroit has dropped 8 of its last 10 on the road. The Pistons check in off a rare road win but are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Also, the Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Raptors -3.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Wizards tonight as they hit the road following a very satisfying win last night against the Bulls. The Raptors have had a day to gear up for this one, and they will be lacking no motivation as they were just embarrassed 109-92 at Washington Sunday. The Wizards have been strong at home but are only 2-7 SU and ATS in their last 9 on the road. Each of these 7 defeats came by at least 5 points Also, the Raptors are 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus the Wizards with the 5 wins coming by an average of 11.4 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks +3
The Key: This is a big game for both teams as they are in the hunt for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. I give the edge to Dallas, which is in better current form and is the healthier side. The Lakers are 2-4 in their last 6 while the Mavs have won 4 of their last 5. The Lakers are without Metta World Peace, Steve Nash is listed as doubtful and Kobe Bryant is playing hurt. These injuries are a big part of LA's recent struggles. I should also mention that Dallas has won 4 of its last 5 on the road with the only loss during this stretch being a 1-point setback in San Antonio. Dallas is an incredible 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The road team is 3-0 ATS this season and 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the points.

7* NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU +3
The Key: Baylor won the season's first meeting by 15 points, but that was early in the season and at home. The Bears haven't played away from home since March 14, and I expect them to struggle in their first game away from campus in quite some time. The Bears have lost 6 of their last 7 away from home with the lone win during this stretch coming by only 3 points over West Virginia. BYU just went on the road and defeated a So. Miss squad that had been nearly unbeatable at home. The Cougars have won 7 of their last 11 off campus and have won or lost by just 3 points in each of their last 3 away from home. Baylor has struggled against good offensive teams like BYU that average 77.0 points or more per game. It is 0-7 ATS 15 or more games into the season versus such opponents the last 2 seasons and has lost to them by an average score of 77.5 to 69.4. It has also struggled against teams like BYU that do a good job of sharing the basketball with 16.0 assists or more per game. The Bears are 0-7 ATS 15 or more games into the season the last 2 seasons versus such foes and have lost to them by an average score of 80.3 to 70.7. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers +9.5
The Key: Utah is being overvalued here because it has won 4 in a row SU and ATS and Portland has dropped its last 4 both SU and ATS. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have covered the number in 4 or more consecutive games if their winning percentage is just 45%-55%. Doing so has produced a 32-8 ATS result the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 6.1 points but have won by just 1.2 points on average. This system is 17-5 ATS the last 3 seasons and 6-2 ATS this season. You also want to take road teams like Portland that check in off a blowout loss of 20 points or more if their opponent has scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games. Doing so has produced a 53-27 ATS result since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 9.0 points on average but have lost by just 5.9 on average. The more a team loses, the more the value swings in its favor. With this in mind, it comes as no surprise that Portland is 17-6 ATS the last 3 seasons when it enters a contest with at least 6 losses in its last 8 games. Utah just won in Portland Friday so the Blazers will be out for some revenge here. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +6.5
The Key: This is a game Boston wants badly. After winning the season's first meeting in New York, the Celtics have lost the last two in the series at home. They were kicked 100-85 by the Knicks Tuesday, and that loss can't be sitting well. It will be the driving force behind a strong showing here. The road team has been the play in this series. It is 3-0 SU and ATS this season. Going back further, it is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New York. Catching this many points on the road has been a gift for Boston backers since Doc Rivers took over. That's because the C's are 51-33 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under his watch. In addition, Boston is 91-68 ATS when playing with double revenge under Rivers. Take the points.

7* Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +2
The Key: Michigan was extremely fortunate to beat Kansas as it played rather underwhelming basketball for the first 37 minutes of the game. I believe that game will be a lesson to the Wolverines and they'll come out much harder, especially on the defensive side of the ball, in this one. While Florida is the better defensive team, we just saw the Gators give up 45.5% shooting to Florida Gulf Coast. If the Eagles don't shoot only 54.5% from the foul line and turn it over 20 times, it's much closer than a 12-point game. Brett Comer wasn't able to handle the Florida pressure, but I'm confident Trey Burke will have no problem. He looks like the best player in the country right now and will enter this game extremely confident after putting the Wolverines on his back down the stretch against Kansas. I just don't see the Gators having an answer for him. If they double him to make him give it up, Glenn Robinson and Tim Hardaway can hurt the Gators as well. Florida will also have trouble defending Mitch McGary, who is having a coming out party in this tournament. The Wolverines have been terrific in tournament formats this season, going 8-1 ATS in all tournament games. The Wolverines are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games under Beilein, whose teams are 14-3 ATS in the NCAA tournament since 1997. I'll take the points with the more talented team as I expect Michigan to show up after getting a scare.

6* NBA Bailout on Suns +10.5
The Key: The Suns are playing a lot of young guys as they are already starting to think about next season. Still, they aren't getting the respect they deserve at home tonight versus a road-weary Pacers club that will be playing its third road game in 4 days. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points that gave up 80 points or less in their last game if they are matchup up against a team that allowed 110 points or more in their last game. Doing so has produced a 49-18 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. You also want to take underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games even if they are playing a third game in 4 days. That's because these teams are 58-30 ATS since 1996. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

6* Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Rockets pk
The Key: This is LA's 4th game in 5 days so fatigue will definitely be an issue. Plus, I expect motivation to be an issue as well as it is coming off a heartbreaking loss in San Antonio last night. It will be tough to bounce back from that one. The Rockets will be very motivated as they've yet to clinch a playoff spot. They've also lost the season's first two meetings with the Clippers so the revenge angle is live here. The Clippers are a soft 2-11 ATS under coach Del Negro when coming off a cover in a game they lost straight up. They have lost by an average score of 99.6 to 92.1 in this situation. The Rockets are 17-5 ATS under coach McHale in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. They have won by an average score of 106.9 to 97.4 in these spots. Take the Rockets.

6* Elite 8 *CA$H COW* on Marquette +4.5
The Key: Marquette knows how to beat Syracuse. The Golden Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 matchups, including a 74-71 win during the regular season. They were a 1.5-point dog in that game and are catching 3 more points in this matchup despite winning it? Syracuse is clearly being overvalued because of its performance against Indiana. While I give the Orange credit for how they played defensively, Indiana did a terrible job of attacking the zone. It takes ball movement, man movement and dribble penetration of the gaps to beat a zone. Indiana lacked in all three areas. Marquette won't. The Golden Eagles know the secret to beating Syracuse is getting to the foul line. In each of their last three wins in the series, they have made more free throws than the Orange have attempted. They also won the rebounding battle in the three wins. Because of their focus on taking the ball aggressively to the basket and keeping Syracuse off the boards, the Golden Eagles are 5-0 ATS against the Orange the last four 4 seasons. Marquette hasn't just been successful against Syracuse. It's strategy of getting to the foul line has worked against a number of quality defensive teams. In fact, the Eagles are 22-12 ATS all-time under Buzz Williams versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 39% shooting or worse. They have won by an average score of 71.5 to 69.4 in this situation. I also like the fact that Marquette is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons 15 or more games in versus high-caliber opponents that outscore the opposition by 12 points or more per game. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 70.5 to 69.6. Lastly, the Eagles are a rock solid 19-8 ATS when catching points the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavs -4
The Key: *reduced writeup due to late line release and early start time* Bulls are in for a letdown on the road following a huge win over the Heat. Dallas, which is vying for a playoff spot, is in major bounce-back mode after getting embarrassed by Indiana. The Mavs were also kicked by the Bulls earlier this season so they will be lacking no motivation. Plays on any team that is out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more on the road to an opponent, provided it checks in off an upset loss of 15 points or more, are 37-12 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -3
The Key: Utah has won its last two but is still just 5-12 in its last 17. I expect Utah's struggles to continue tonight in Portland where the Blazers are 22-12 on the season. The Jazz are just 10-27 on the road, including 0-9 in their last 9 road contests. They have lost by an average of 8.4 points during this losing streak. Portland should be lacking no motivated here following back-to-back double-digit defeats. The last one came at home to Brooklyn and that's significant because the Trail Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jazz are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Trail Blazers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Nuggets -6.5
The Key: Denver saw its 15-game losing streak come to an end Monday and then lost a tough one in San Antonio Wednesday. Both of those were on the road. The Nuggets are a much better team at home and should be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. They'll be further fueled by a loss at Brooklyn in the season's first meeting. This is the Nets 6th straight on the road so I expect them to be feeling pretty road-weary by now. The Nuggets are 17-0 in their last 17 at home and have won these by an average of 11.9 points. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 at home versus the Nets and have won these by an average of 13.2 points. These two trends form a 22-0 angle that carries an average winning margin of 12.6 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Memphis -4.5
The Key: After back-to-back poor performances on the road, I fully expect Memphis to bounce-back strong at home tonight. The Grizzlies will draw added motivated from an embarrassing 121-96 loss at Houston the last time these two met. The Grizzlies are 10-0 in their last 10 at home and have won these by an average of 7.9 points. The Rockets have struggled on the road all season and haven't played away from home since Mar. 9 so this is a tough spot for them. The Grizz are 4-0 in their last 4 at home versus Houston, winning these by an average of 10.8 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.1 points. These 3 trends form a 23-0 angle that carries a 9.9-pt avg. margin of victory. Memphis is 32-17 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Also, the Grizzlies are 15-4 ATS all-time under coach Hollins when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. Lay the number.

7* Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +2
The Key: Kansas is a very good defensive team, but it is susceptible to long scoring droughts on offense. After managing just 64 points against Western Kentucky in the round of 64, the Jayhawks came up with 70 against North Carolina. But keep in mind that they were held to only 43.6 percent shooting by an often poor defensive team, and that they only had 21 points at the half. They were able to explode for 49 points in the second half, but they won't be able to afford any lengthy scoring droughts against a Michigan squad that has no trouble scoring the rock. Ben McLemore is Kansas' most talented offensive player, but he's been mired in a slump. He only had two points against the Tar Heels. Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are all capable of going off for Michigan, and now Mitch McGary has joined the party. He's scored 13 and 21 points, respectively, in Michigan's first two wins. I just don't see Kansas being able to get enough stops or generating enough offense to pull this one. Offense has been an issue for Kansas at different times throughout the Bill Self era. It was a lack of offense that got them beat by Northern Iowa in 2010 and VCU in 2011. The Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents the last 4 seasons. They have covered the spread twice against Kansas during this stretch as an underdog which I believe is a testament to how good of a coach John Beilein is. The Wolverines were a 10-point dog the last time these teams met in January, 2011 and they took the Jayhawks to OT. They had no business playing with that Kansas team, but Beilein had them ready. Now, he has the more talented squad. It is also worth noting that Kansas is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 versus the Big Ten. The Wolverines have been terrific in tournament formats this season. In fact, they are 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. Also, Beilein's teams are 13-3 ATS in all NCAA tournament games since 1997. Take Michigan.

6* Sweet 16 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +10
The Key: The Pac-12 entered the tournament incredibly undervalued, and that remains the case here. We saw Cal upset UNLV in a 12-5 matchup, and we have also seen Arizona make a nice run as a 6-seed. Oregon is clearly not your average 12-seed. The Ducks won the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and probably should have won the regular-season title as well. They are playing confident basketball right now and have made quality opponents Oklahoma State and Saint Louis look like chumps. I believe the Ducks have what it takes to give the Cardinals a game. You want to fade double-digit favorites that check in with a winning streak of 10 games or more as doing so has produced a 173-107 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 70-32 ATS if the team we are fading is matched up against a team that has won at least 2 consecutive games. Oddsmakers have not not set a very high total for this game, which is what I like to see when catching a big number. The total is significant because teams headed up by Dana Altman are 7-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 129.5 or less since 1997. I also like the fact that Oregon is 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court contests 15 or more games into the schedule the last 2 seasons versus good shooting teams that making 45% or more of their shots. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Suns +1.5
The Key: This is a big letdown spot for Sacramento, which won at Golden State last night. Keep in mind that the Kings hadn't defeated an opponent with a winning record away from Sacramento all season before last night. Even with the win, they are only 7-30 on the road. The Suns will be in bounce-back mode after losing in Utah last night. They will also be out for revenge for a loss at Sacramento earlier this month. They had won 5 straight in the series before that defeat. The Kings have had virtually no success in Phoenix where they have lost 12 of their last 13. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Kings are also 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings and 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns.

7* Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana -5
The Key: Syracuse needs to play this game in the half court to have a chance. Judging by the total (136.0), oddsmakers don't expect that to happen. The total is significant because Syracuse is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in neutral court contests when the total is 135 to 139.5. Indiana has a big edge at the foul line as it connects on 19 of 25 free throw attempts per game on average and Syracuse connects on only 14 of 21. This is also significant because the Orange are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons at or after the 15-game point of the schedule versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 free throws or more per game. The fact Indiana cleans up the boards doesn't bode well for Syracuse either. The Orange are 0-8 ATS the last 2 seasons versus dominant rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 7.0 or more per game. Syracuse has struggled offensively down the stretch. In fact, it's been under 41.0 percent shooting in six of its last nine games. That's not a good sign as it's about to face one of the best defensive teams in the country. Lastly, fading Syracuse in the Sweet 16 has never lost under Jim Boeheim. The Orange are 0-6 ATS in the Sweet 16 under his watch, losing these by an average of 7.7 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Lakers -4.5
The Key: Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats that have reduced their lead to a single game for the final playoff spot in the West, the Lakers will bounce-back strong against a team they have defeated 21 straight times. You want to fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking for revenge for a loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a road game where both it and its foe scored 100 points or more. Doing so has produced a 25-5 ATS mark the last 5 seasons, and a perfect 2-0 ATS result this season. The Timberwolves rolled in Detroit last night. That bodes well for us as they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a in of more than 10 points. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota, winning these by an average of 9.3 points. The Lakers have been hurt by the 3-point during their 3-game slide, but Minnesota shoots an NBA-low 30.0 percent on 3s. The T-Wolves made a season-high 14 on 26 attempts last night, which means they used them all up. If anything, the good shooting night will make them fall more in love with the long range jump shot tonight, and that plays in our favor. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies +1
The Key: Motivated by Monday's disappointing performance at Washington, the Grizzlies will bounce-back strong tonight. We're talking about a team that is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Plus, Memphis hasn't lost too many against the East on the road. It's 10-4 on the road against the East this season. The Grizzlies are 19-9 ATS in all games against the East this season. They are also 14-4 ATS all-time under coach Hollins in road games against Atlantic division foes. Memphis has also been a tremendous investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. It is 14-6 ATS this season in games when the line is +3 to -3. The Knicks have won 5 in a row but only last night's win against the banged-up Celtics was against a playoff team. The Grizzlies have had a day off to gear up for this one, and I fully expect them to respond.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks +1.5
The Key: The Mavs will be the more motivated team tonight. They have played their way back into the playoff picture, trailing the Lakers for the No. 8 spot in the West by only two games in the win column. Plus, they have lost the season's first two meetings with the Clippers so they'll be out for revenge. Both of those defeats came in L.A. I expect a different result in Dallas where the Mavs have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. The Mavs have been an outstanding investment in revenge spots this season. They are 17-8 ATS when out for revenge for a same-season loss this season. They are also an impressive 18-6 ATS in their last 24 versus the Western Conference. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the West. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take Dallas.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Bradley +11
The Key: Bradley lost both meetings during the regular season and was crushed 84-53 in the one at Northern Iowa. However, I like its chances of giving the Panthers a game. Northern Iowa shot the lights out from 3-point range in both wins against the Braves. It was 15 of 26 from beyond the arc in the home win. The Panthers average 8 3-point makes per game so they got an extra 21 points on 3's. If they make their average, they only win 63-53, theoretically. Bottom line, after getting blitzed from long range twice against N. Iowa, I expect Bradley to do a much better job against the 3 tonight. It is also worth noting that N. Iowa hasn't blown out too many opponents at home lately. In fact, it has won by 11 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 home games with the exception being a 12-point victory. The Panthers are on an 18-34 ATS slide as a home favorite of 10 or more points. Plus, they are only 1-8 ATS at or after the 15-game point of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. They have actually lost to these teams by an average score of 61.4 to 59.2. Lastly, the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points.

7* NIT Game of the Week on Southern Miss -8
The Key: Louisiana Tech took care of an inexperienced Florida State squad in its first round contest, but it will have trouble duplicating that performance at Southern Miss where the Golden Eagles are 13-1 on the season. The Golden Eagles missed a golden opportunity to make the NCAA tournament when they lost to Memphis in double-OT in the C-USA tournament title game. They were still feeling the effects of that disappointing loss when they let Charleston Southern hang around in their NIT opener. While they had trouble finding motivation for that game, they should have no such trouble tonight as they lost at Louisiana Tech 65-55 earlier this season. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings, winning those by an average of 11.7 points. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning those by an average of 13.2 points. There is also a strong revenge trend in our favor as teams headed up by coach Donnie Tyndall are 23-8 ATS when looking for revenge against a team that held them to less than 60 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Wizards +3
The Key: The Wizards are showing value at home in the underdog role tonight. Washington has won each of its last 5 and 15 of its last 19 at home with notable wins over the Thunder, Bulls, Clippers, Knicks, Nuggets and Rockets during this stretch. Memphis has been pretty good on the road this season but has dropped its last 3 away from home. Besides, the Wizards are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus teams that have a winning road record. Washington is also a reliable 34-18 ATS as an underdog this season, including 16-7 ATS as a home underdog. Take the points.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on Providence -8.5
The Key: Robert Morris shocked Kentucky in the first round, but that game was at home and the Wildcats were disinterested after missing out on the Big Dance. Providence, which defeated Charlotte by 9 in its opening game, is very much interested in making a deep run. The Friars weren't expected to do much of anything this season, and they went 9-9 in the mighty Big East. That's the same conference record Cincinnati, an NCAA tournament team, had. Most of Providence's success came at home where it is 13-4. Recently, the Friars are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 home games with notable wins over Cincinnati and Notre Dame during this stretch. The Friars have won 8 of their last 11 overall with a win at Villanova during this span. I mention that win because the Wildcats defeated all the elite teams in the Big East on their home floor. These two played one like opponent this season, Bryant. Robert Morris split two meetings with Bryant, winning one by two and losing the other by seven. Providence kicked Bryant 81-49. In addition, you want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing on 5 or 6 days' rest if they are a good team (60% to 80%) and playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 134-88 ATS result the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

6* Sunday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Illinois +8
The Key: Miami rolled past Pacific in its opener behind a 12 of 22 performance from 3-point range. That performance was clearly out of the ordinary as it averages just 7 3-point makes per game. If you subtract the 15 points scored from beyond the arc that Miami normally doesn't get, the Hurricanes only beat the Tigers by 14. That's what the spread closed as. With this in mind, I believe Miami is being overvalued here because of its wide margin of victory that came from an atypical long-range shooting display. Miami can try to make it rain again, but Illinois has the athletes to make sure the Hurricanes don't go off from deep. The books clearly feel Illinois will have success defending Miami as they have set a total of 128. Given the spread, this means they are expecting a game in the 60's, which greatly favors the Illini. Miami is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when it scores fewer than 70 points. Keep in mind that teams headed up by John Groce are 7-0 ATS all-time in neutral court contests when the total is 120 to 129.5. His teams have won these games by an average score of 63.6 to 53.4. This trend was in play Friday when Illinois defeated Colorado, and it was also live when it defeated Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten tourney. The Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the ACC while the Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus Big Ten. Take the points.

7* Sunday NCAA Tournament ATS Blowout on San Diego State -7
The Key: Florida Gulf Coast is getting tons of attention after pulling off the upset of the tournament. That's fine by me. All the attention has led to a public love affair with this team and the books are looking to take advantage. I won't oblige them by falling for the trap. While the Eagles have wins over Miami and Georgetown, they also have double-digit losses to VCU, Duke, St. John's, Iowa State, East Tennessee State and Lipscomb. With all the attention FGCU is getting, people forget that San Diego State just kicked a very good Oklahoma team 70-55. The Aztecs dominated the Sooners on the boards and will have an advantage there again. Plus, SDSU has a sizable coaching advantage with the proven Steve Fisher over Andy Enfield. FGCU plays free, undisciplined ball, and I expect that to backfire against a SDSU squad that is elite defensively. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeded 13-16 in the NCAA tournament if they enter a matchup with a winning streak of 4 wins or more. That's because doing so has produced a 41-14 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.9 points on average and have lost by an average of 9.9 points. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. FGCU sneaked up on Georgetown, but you can bet the Aztecs won't be looking ahead. Lay the points as SDSU wins by double digits.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Rockets +1.5
The Key: The Spurs have won each of the season's first three meetings, which means Houston will be out for some serious revenge. San Antonio hasn't swept the season series since 2005-06, and I don't expect it to get it done here. The Spurs needed OT to defeat the Rockets in the season's prior meeting in Houston and James Harden didn't even play in that game. The Rockets are a better team than they were the last time they saw the Spurs and will certainly benefit from Harden being in the lineup. Houston has been playing very well at home where it has won 10 of its last 12. It is also worth noting that the Rockets had won 3 in a row at home versus the Spurs by 3, 20 and 5 points before suffering the OT loss. Houston is an outstanding 9-1 ATS the L2 seasons as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the points.

6* Sunday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +8
The Key: Minnesota has the size, physicality and athleticism to give Florida problems. I love how dialed in the Golden Gophers have been on the defensive end. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 35.6% shooting or worse. Florida has also been strong defensively this season, but Minnesota has been up for the challenge against such opponents. In fact, the Gophers are 13-5 ATS under Tubby Smith versus excellent defensive teams like Florida that give up 57 ppg or fewer. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 59.4 to 57.2. In addition, you want to back underdogs that have gone under the total by 48 points or more in their last 7 games, provided they are matched up against a non-conference foe from one of the Big 6 conferences. Teams fitting these parameters are 12-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Gators are a soft 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take the points.

7* NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -6
The Key: Southern woke a sleeping giant. After getting a scare in its opening game, expect Gonzaga to take the floor with more passion and focus in the round of 32. Wichita State rolled past Pittsburgh in its tournament opener, but I get the sense the Shockers are teasing us. They lost 4 senior starters off last year's squad and will be giving up a lot of experience to a Gonzaga squad that brought back 4 starters. This is the round where the Zags went home a year ago so they'll be determined to make sure history doesn't repeat itself. Wichita State beat Pittsburgh despite shooting 38.8% from the field because the Panthers shot only 35.2%. However, Gonzaga hasn't shot below 41.5% all season and averages 50.1% shooting. I expect Wichita State to struggle here against a much better offensive team. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade the Zags following Thursday's scare - the numbers tell us to do just the opposite. Gonzaga is 8-2 ATS this season off a game it won but didn't cover. It is also 10-2 ATS this season after a game where it failed to cover the spread. In addition, the Shockers are a poor 4-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. They sink to just 1-8 ATS in the aforementioned situation under coach Marshall. Lay the points.