Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Grizzlies -3
The Key: Motivated by an 86-77 loss to Oklahoma City that ended a six-game win streak, and further fueled by double-digit losses to Dallas in the season's first two meetings, Memphis will be hungry tonight. The Grizzlies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are also 23-10 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more. Dallas is one of the better offensive teams in the league, but we can't ignore the fact Memphis is 15-5 ATS the last three seasons in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that average 103.0 ppg or more. The Memphis defense has been outstanding of late, and I expect it to be the difference against Dallas. Lay the number.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on TCU +8.5
The Key: You want to fade February road favorites or pickems that check in with six consecutive wins or more. Doing so has produced a 96-50 ATS mark the last five seasons. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Texas' last four wins have come against teams ranked in the AP Top 25, including a big win over Kansas Saturday. It was easy for Texas to get up for those games knowing it would have to be at its best to come out on top. But, it will be difficult for it to get up for the lowly Horned Frogs on the road in the wake of Saturday's accomplishment, especially with a much bigger showdown at K-State up next. The Longhorns have gone from being an underdog in four of their last five games to laying nearly double-digits, and I believe the huge swing is an overreaction. Texas has struggled as chalk, going just 15-27 ATS in the role the last three seasons. The Longhorns are also just 2-12 ATS after successfully covering the number in two or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. TCU is still looking for its first conference victory, and it will also be out to snap a seven-game losing streak to Texas so it will be lacking no motivation. Plus, the Horned Frogs have a lineup full of kids from Texas that would love to take down the mighty Longhorns. I'm expecting an inspired performance from the home team here. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: Off back-to-back losses at home and fueled by a 112-91 loss in L.A. in the season's first meeting, Denver will be extremely motivated when it takes the floor tonight. The home team has had the advantage of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 15.5 points. The Nuggets earned two of these wins by 14 and 15 points, respectively. Looking back, the Nuggets are 11-2 in their last 13 home games versus the Clippers. L.A. sports a 34-16 record overall and a 14-13 road mark, but the Nuggets are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Clippers are off a blowout win over Utah, but they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Trail Blazers -7
The Key: This is a really tough situation for Toronto, which is playing its second road game in as many nights against a Portland team that has had the last three days off. The Blazers have lost their last two in blowout fashion so they will be extremely motivated here. They needed overtime to win the season's first meeting in Toronto so there's no chance they'll get caught overlooking the Raptors. The Blazers are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home games against Toronto, winning these by an average of 12.0 points. Lay the points.

6* Pac-12 Powerhouse of the Week in Washington State +3
The Key: You want to fade favorites off two straight wins in conference play when they are up against an opponent off two straight double-digit defeats at home. That's because doing so has produced a 55-25 ATS result since 1997. Washington has been a terrible investment against losing teams. In fact, it is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games versus teams that have a losing record. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS when playing against losing teams this season, defeating them by just 0.5 points on average. They are also 0-6 ATS the last two seasons when playing against teams carrying a win percentage of 20-40%. The Cougars have lost six straight to their in-state rivals with five of the losses coming by five points or less, including two by just two points. Look for Washington State to finally break through here.

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on South Alabama -5
The Key: This is a tough situation for Arkansas-Little Rock, which has had just one day to prepare following Thursday's win over Louisiana-Lafayette. South Alabama has had a week to prepare, giving it a significant edge in terms of fresh legs and game-plan execution. The Jaguars also hold a motivational edge having lost the season's first meeting 65-60. The Trojans haven't been the same team on the road where they are on a 6-15 ATS slide as an underdog or pickem, losing these games by an average score of 77.3 to 61.7. They are also just 3-12 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last two seasons. The Jags are 3-0 in their last three home games against ALR and 8-2 in their last 10. Their last two home wins in the series have come by 15 and 13 points. Lay the number.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Iowa State -8
The Key: Iowa State has lost four of five since starting the season 14-0, and the funk started with an 87-82 loss at Oklahoma. I was on the Sooners catching points in that spot, but I love Iowa State in the rematch. Consider that the Cyclones are on a 21-9 ATS run in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. Also consider that they are on a 10-2 ATS run in home games when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent and have won by an average score of 74.8 to 59.6 in this spot. Iowa State has been a terrific investment at home where it is 21-9 ATS in its last 30. It is even 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 home games versus teams like Oklahoma that have a winning road record. The Sooners have struggled in Ames, going 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings there and losing the last two meetings by 19 and 11 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout (ESPN) on Jazz +5
The Key: Golden State manhandled the Clippers last night, but the Warriors have been incredibly inconsistent of late. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win, and they'll have their work cut out for themselves trying to pull away from a fresher Utah team that has had the last three days off. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team that has a winning record. The Warriors won the season's first two meetings with one of the wins at home and the other in Salt Lake City. However, they haven't won multiple regular season games in Utah in the same season since the 1980-81 campaign. You want to back home underdogs with a losing record that are playing five games or less in 14 days as doing so has produced a 42-18 ATS mark the last five seasons. This system has gone 21-6 ATS over the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Austin Peay +3.5
The Key: This is a game the Governors want badly. They have lost six straight to Murray State and were embarrassed 89-67 on the road in the season's first meeting. I like Austin Peay's chances of revenge tonight considering how poorly the Racers have performed on the road, where they are 2-7 on the season. In addition, the Governors are a perfect 9-0 ATS all-time under coach David Loos when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more. Take the points.

6* NBA National TV *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Nets +4.5
The Key: Oklahoma City is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in its last nine games and is coming off a big 112-95 win in Miami against the defending champs, and it is being overvalued as a result. The Thunder lost at home 95-93 to the Nets Jan. 2 for their second straight loss in the series. Oklahoma City had no answer for Deron Williams in the first meeting, and I expect him to be the difference tonight. While the Thunder would love a little revenge, I don't see them having enough in the tank to get it on the road against a team playing its best ball of the season, especially since they are playing a second road game in three days and the Nets have had three days off. You want to fade teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent if the opponent if off an upset loss to a division rival. Doing so has produced a 107-56 ATS mark the last five seasons, including an 8-2 ATS mark this season. Take the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue +12
The Key: Following three consecutive big wins over ranked Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State teams, the Wolverines will have a tough time getting up for Purdue. The Boilermakers will have no trouble getting up for Michigan and have shown they can rise to the occasion against good teams. They played then-No. 5 Oklahoma State to a 10-point game Nov. 28 and then No. 3 Ohio State to a nine-point game Dec. 31. Purdue is 14-5 ATS under coach Painter when catching 10 points or more. It is also 25-9 ATS under its current head man following a loss of 10 points or more in conference play. Take the points.

6* WCC *CA$H COW* on BYU -13
The Key: Off back-to-back losses on the road, BYU will be ready to run up the score in its return to Provo. This may seem like a lot of points to be laying, but Pacific is 0-10 ATS since 1997 as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points, losing these games by an average of 20.3 points. Furthermore, BYU is 6-0 ATS in home games the last two seasons versus teams like Pacific that carry a win percentage of 51-60%. It has defeated these teams by an average of 25.2 points. Lastly, the Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games versus teams with a losing road record. Lay the number.

7* Southern Conference Game of the Week on Elon -4.5
The Key: Elon has dropped three in a row following its impressive upset win at Davidson. One of these losses was to a very good UMass team, but the last two were upset defeats on the road. Motivated by these three losses and further fueled by a 74-62 loss at Western Carolina in the season's first meeting, Elon will be ready to bounce back strong tonight. Home favorites or pickems off two or more consecutive upset losses on the road are 78-38 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have won by an average of 12.0 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Kings +5
The Key: This is a poor situation for Memphis, which is riding high off last night's big win in Portland. It's tough enough to play road games in consecutive nights, but it's especially challenging following a satisfying win as it makes it tougher to get up for the next one, especially when the next one is against a team you have already defeated twice in the season. The Grizzlies also have a revenge game at Minnesota up next, making this a look-ahead spot. The Kings have been banged up, but they will be the fresher team tonight following a day of rest. There's also a good chance they'll get Rudy Gay back. But, regardless, I like them in this spot. They took Indiana to OT at home recently without Gay and DeMarcus Cousins. You want to fade favorites following a blowout win of 15 points or more in a game involving two teams that both have +/- 3.0 ppg differential. Doing so has produced a 73-33 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 9-1 ATS mark this season. It's also worth noting that the Kings are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

6* SEC Annihilator on Tennessee -7.5
The Key: You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a win of 15 points or more if they average 74-78.0 ppg and are up against a team that averages 67-74.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 112-61 ATS mark since 1997. The Vols were smoked at Florida last game, but they are 9-1 ATS in home games following a loss of 20 points or more to a conference opponent since 1997. Ole Miss won both of last season's matchups while handing the Vols an 18-point defeat in Knoxville. Those losses add fuel to Tennessee's fire tonight. Look for the Vols to have their revenge in a big way. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Central Florida +9
The Key: This is a difficult situation for Memphis as it hits the road for the first time since Jan. 11. Plus, the Tigers have had only two days to prepare while Central Florida has had five. Memphis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games that follow three or more consecutive home games. The Tigers are also 3-17 ATS under coach Pastner following two or more consecutive home wins. Nothing has come easy for Memphis when it has visited UCF. The Tigers haven't won by more than nine points in any of their last four visits with two of the games being decided by a single point. Take the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* (ESPNU) on Notre Dame +3.5
The Key: Virginia hasn't been on the road for over two weeks, and now it finds itself on what has been one of the toughest home courts in the country in recent years. After back-to-back losses on the road, Notre Dame is happy to be home where it is 10-3 on the season and has a win over Duke. Virginia is off back-to-back blowout wins over North Carolina and Virginia Tech, but get this: Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are 2-10 ATS all-time in road games following two or more consecutive home wins. They have lost these games by an average score of 64.8 to 58.9. Take the points.

6* NBA *Motivational Mismatch* on Cavaliers -1.5
The Key: I'll lay the small number with a Cleveland squad that will be highly motivated tonight. The Cavs lost 99-90 to Phoenix last game despite leading the contest by 20 points just before halftime. They were outscored 56-29 over the final two quarters, including 25-6 in the third. "It's embarrassing for us, to the fans, to the organization to come out like that," forward Tristan Thompson said. "We have to take that personally..." I expect Sunday's monumental collapse to prompt a huge response from the Cavs tonight. Adding to their motivation is a 104-100 loss at New Orleans in the season's first matchup. The Pelicans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win while the Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The Cavs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record. The home team is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 3-0 in the last 3.

7* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on South Florida +7.5
The Key: SMU finds itself in a very difficult situation tonight as it is playing its second road game in three days. The fact it defeated South Florida 71-54 Jan. 15, and the fact it has Memphis on deck, makes this situation even more difficult because it will be looking right past the Bulls tonight. USF has been crushed in its last two games by very good Louisville and Memphis teams, and those embarrassing losses will have it very motivated here. The Bulls will be further motivated by the earlier loss to SMU. Stan Heath's teams are 10-2 ATS all-time following two straight losses of 15 points or more, and they have won by an average score of 70.6 to 66.3 in this situation. Take USF.

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Georgetown +6
The Key: This is a tough spot for Villanova, which is being asked to play a second road game in a span of three days. This is a big issue for a team that has looked fatigued, especially on the defensive end, in recent games. The Wildcats have allowed their last two opponents, Creighton and Marquette, to shoot 50.0 percent or better from the floor. Villanova is 2-10 ATS the last three seasons when playing two games in three days, losing by an average score of 70.9 to 66.3 in these contests. College teams are used to playing Wednesday or Thursday and then again on Saturday or Sunday so playing on Monday usually means a quick turnaround, and the Wildcats are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games while the Hoyas are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games. Georgetown also played Saturday but is in a much better spot because it's home. The Hoyas are 3-0 in their last three home games versus Villanova. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings at Georgetown. Take the points.

6* NBA Anti-public Annihilator on Bucks +10
The Key: The public will be all over the Clippers playing the lowly Bucks, but I don't see L.A. covering this hefty number. This is the last game of grueling seven-game road trip, and since it's against the worst team in the NBA the road-weary Clippers will have a very hard time getting up for this contest. The Bucks were completely embarrassed by 25 points by Atlanta in front of their home fans last game, and that should motivate them to show up tonight knowing the Clippers are better than the Hawks. The Clippers have struggled in Milwaukee where they have won by more than 8 points just once in the last 14 meetings. That's a 13-1 trend we'll be playing here. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on 76ers +6
The Key: This is a tough situation for Phoenix as it is playing its second road game in as many days against a Philadelphia squad that had yesterday off. The 76ers will be the fresher team, and they should also be more prepared in terms of their scouting report. Phoenix has struggled in the City of Brotherly Love, losing three of its last four visits with the line win coming by only four points. The Suns are a poor 1-10 ATS the last two seasons in games taking place in the second half of the schedule versus teams like Philadelphia that have a win percentage of 25-40%. Phoenix has lost these games by an average score of 103.1 to 91.6. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Warriors -5
The Key: This is a tough situation for the Trail Blazers, who are playing their second game in as many days, their third game in four days and their seventh game in 10 days. Golden State, on the other hand, is playing just its second game in six days. The Warriors will be the fresher side, and they should also be more motivated. Golden State has lost its last two games, both at home, while giving up over 100 points in each. The poor defensive efforts prompted head coach Mark Jackson to call out his team. "We've done a bad job

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Temple +6.5
The Key: This isn't the best situation for Cincinnati, which has had just two days to prepare for this game. Plus, it defeated Temple 69-58 Jan. 14 and has a big showdown at Louisville on deck, so there's a good chance the Bearcats will be lacking focus. Cincy check in off a 69-51 win over UCF, but it is 0-6 ATS off a win of 10 points or more over a conference foe over the last two seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 61.0 to 60.7. The Bearcats are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. They are 1-8 ATS under coach Mick Cronin in games that occur 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams carry a win percentage of 20-40%. They have won these games on average, but only by 0.1 points. Temple will be motivated by its recent loss to Cincy and further fueled by the beating it took versus Louisville last game. The Owls have had four days since their last contest so they should be fresher and more prepared in addition to being more motivated. The Owls are 9-2 ATS after a loss of 15 points or more under coach Dunphy, winning these games by an average score of 70.5 to 62.7. Temple is 33-18 ATS in all revenge spots under Dunphy, including 24-11 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss. The Owls are 11-1 ATS under their current head man at home in games occurring 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by an average of 8.0 ppg or more. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Saint Peter's +6
The Key: Expect a letdown from Iona following Friday's big 95-73 win over Quinnipiac that has the Gaels sitting tied atop the conference standings. Iona is a poor 2-10 ATS the last three seasons following a win of 20 points or more, winning these contests by just 0.3 points on average. St. Peter's is just 7-11 on the season, but it has played a road-heavy schedule. 12 of these games have been played on road/neutral venues. Returning home should do the Peacocks some good as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games following three or more consecutive road games. The Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Saint Peter's has lost by more than six points in just one of its six home games this season, and it beat Iona on this floor last season. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Saturday Night Bailout (ESPNU) on Utah State +3.5
The Key: I'll take the points with a Utah State team that has an excellent opportunity to pull the upset tonight. The Aggies check in off back-to-back losses on the road. However, they are 12-4 ATS under coach Steve Morrill following two or more consecutive road losses. They have won by an average score of 75.7 to 61.4 in this spot. Utah State is 11-2 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive road losses since 1997, winning these contests by an average score of 79.0 to 61.1. The Aggies have also been a tremendous investment at home where they are 8-1 ATS in lined games this season. Utah State is much more efficient than San Diego State on the offensive end. The Aggies are also very good defensively at home, and I look for them to really frustrate the Aztecs tonight. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: Indiana bounced back from a blowout defeat to Phoenix with a win in Sacramento last night, but it wasn't easy. They needed overtime to get it done and had to expend a lot of energy to erase a big deficit. All five starters logged over 36 minutes. Now, the Pacers have to play on the road again tonight in Denver's high altitude against a Nuggets team that has had a day of rest. I see fatigue being a major issue for the Pacers, who are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games when playing without a day of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. It is the second half of the season in terms of games played for both of these teams, and this is when fatigue has really set it for teams playing the run-and-gun Nuggets. Consider that Denver is 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus good teams that outscore opponents by an average 3.0 ppg or more. Denver has won these nine by an average score of 106.9 to 98.1. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Year on Maryland +4
The Key: Pitt came storming back and blasted Clemson at home after losing a tough one to Syracuse. Now it heads out on the road to face a team it defeated by 20 points earlier this month, and I believe motivation will be a huge issue, especially with a big showdown against Duke just two days from now. Maryland will have no problem getting up for this game following a poor showing against NC State and with revenge in mind. You want to fade favorites off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference foe if they carry a win percentage of 80% or higher and are up against a team with a 51-60% win rate. Doing so has produced a 37-13 ATS mark the last five seasons. Maryland is 16-6 ATS off a loss against a conference foe over the last three seasons. It is also on a 14-4 ATS run in home games off an upset loss. The Terrapins are 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games following a loss, period, so they have been extremely impressive in bounce back spot. In addition, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Maryland is also on an 18-7 ATS run at home in games occurring 15 games or more into the schedule versus top-caliber opponents that are outscoring the opposition by an average of 12.0 ppg or more. The Terps have won these contests by an average score of 82.1 to 77.6. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Wizards +4
The Key: Expect a letdown from Phoenix following Wednesday's huge win over Indiana. Washington will be ready to bounce back strong following Wednesday's tough-to-swallow overtime loss to Boston. The Wizards have been terrific lately on the road where they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10, and they have been especially nasty in this specific spot, going 9-0 ATS this season in road games after playing a home game. They have won these nine contests by an average score of 100.2 to 96.0. It's also worth noting that fading Friday night home favorites off a win has resulted in a 254-170 (60%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Grizzlies +6
The Key: This is a good situation for Memphis as it has had three days to rest up and prepare for this game. Houston has had only one day. Not only will the Grizzlies be the fresher team, but they'll be the more motivated side. Memphis is 0-10 in divisional games this season, including 0-2 against Houston, so it will be looking to remove the goose egg while getting some cold hard revenge. The Grizzlies check in off a loss that ended a five-game win streak, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following defeat. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus teams carrying a win percentage above .600. Memphis has been favored in its last six games and is now catching six points, and I think that's too big of a shift considering how well the Grizzlies are playing, how much preparation time they've had and their level of motivation. Memphis is 10-0 ATS in road games after playing five consecutive games as favorite over the last two seasons, winning by an average score of 95.3 to 87.6 in this spot. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 Powerhouse on Arizona State -4.5
The Key: Off back-to-back blowout losses to UCLA and Arizona, Arizona State will be lacking no motivation this evening. The Sun Devils are 9-1 ATS under coach Sendek following 2 consecutive losses of 10 points or more to conference foes. ASU is also 6-0 ATS under their current head coach after allowing 75 points or more in 2 straight games. Utah is 0-3 on the road this season, but it has been competitive in those games, losing each by 3 points or less. It also played the Sun Devils to a 1-point game in this building last season. Yet, it is catching 4.5 points? The books clearly want the money on Utah following its big win over UCLA knowing that ASU is ready to explode. The home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with an average winning margin of 10.7 points. Lay the number.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +7
The Key: Odds makers have made a mistake with this line. Consider that Buffalo is 1-5 in games played away from home this season with the lone win coming by only 3 points. This creates a 6-0 trend in our favor given the line. In addition, Ball State is 4-1 in its last 5 home games against Buffalo with the lone loss coming by just 3 points. This creates a 5-0 trend in our favor given the line. Ball State finished last season by winning 7 of its last 8, including 5 in a row, and had hopes of making a run in the MAC Tournament. Buffalo won that game, and the Cardinals haven't forgotten. It's been a rough season thus far for Ball State, but it will get up for this contest. Backing any team that has failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games when they are up against a team that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games has produced a 118-66 (64.1%) ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Oddsmaker Trap on Elon -3
The Key: Elon has a worse record than Chattanooga, it is coming off a loss while Chattanooga has won 8 in a row, it is on the road and it lost by 4 points in this building in the most recent matchup. Yet, the Phoenix are laying points? Odds makers clearly want the more coming in on the home dog, but we won't oblige them. Elon is the better team and is more battled tested having played the likes of Colorado, Georgetown, Duke and UMass. Chattanooga has benefited from a soft schedule with UCLA being the only really good teams it's played. Elon was favored by 5.5 points in this building last season after winning the home meeting by 24 points, but it was upset as it was caught looking ahead to a showdown with Davidson. All five starters return from last year's team, and they won't get caught looking ahead this time around. Lay the points.

6* Pac-12 Bailout (ESPNU) on USC +7.5
The Key: Cal is being overvalued on the road because of its 6-0 SU and ATS run and because it is up against a USC team that is on a 0-5 SU and ATS skid. Cal has won by more than 7.5 points just one time in its last seven games played away from home. Plus, teams like USC that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games are 116-66 ATS the last 5 seasons when they are matched up with a team that has covered the number in 4 or more consecutive games. The Golden Bears are just 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Washington State +2.5
The Key: This is a tough situation for Oregon State. I look for the Beavers to suffer a letdown as they hit the road, where they are 0-4 in their last four, following a big win over rival Oregon. After all, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. In addition, they have had one day fewer to prepare for this contest than Washington State. I have no doubt the Cougars will be the more motivated side following back-to-back blowout losses on the road. They also lost by a single point to Oregon State on this floor last season so they will be out for revenge. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have won by an average score of 73.1 to 60.4 in this spot. Washington State isn't a good free throw shooting team, but it shot well from the line last game and that's a positive sign. The Cougars are 7-0 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. Oregon State shoots the ball well from 3-point range (41.1%), but Washington State defends the 3 well, especially at home where it is holding opponents to 4 3-point makes on 30.9% shooting. Consider that teams headed up by coach Ken Bone are 7-0 ATS versus teams that make 41% or more of their 3-points attempts. His teams have won these games by an average score of 76.2 to 64.4. Take the points.

6* SEC Annihilator on Vanderbilt -1
The Key: Vandy will be the more motivated team tonight as it looks to bounce back from Saturday's ugly 81-58 loss at LSU. The Commodores will be further motivated by losses to Ole Miss in both of last season's meetings. Despite getting blasted last game and losing by 10 points on this floor to Ole Miss last season, Vandy has been installed as the favorite. That's significant because the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Commodores have been tremendous in bounce-back spots, going 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss. The Rebels check in off a 1-point victory at S. Carolina but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Take Vandy.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Spurs -5.5
The Key: This is a very tough situation for the Thunder, who are playing their second game in as many nights and their and fifth game in seven days. The Spurs have had two days off prior to this contest, and they are 19-8 ATS the last three seasons when playing on 2 days' rest. They have won by an average of 10.7 points in this situation. San Antonio has lost the season's first two meetings with Oklahoma City so it will be highly motivated tonight. The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3.5
The Key: The Jazz had won five straight over the Timberwolves before getting smacked 98-72 in Minnesota Saturday. At home and motivated by that defeat, I expect the Jazz to have their revenge. The Jazz are 7-0 in their last seven home games against the T-Wolves, winning them by an average of 12.9 points. The Jazz have won or lost by fewer than three points in nine straight home meetings in the series, creating a 9-0 trend in our favor. Minnesota is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win, 9-25-1 ATS in its last 35 games following a SU win and 17-37-3 ATS in its last 57 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Jazz are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Jazz are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Florida Atlantic +10.5
The Key: I usually look to take advantage of situations where teams are fatigued, but there's such a thing as getting too much rest as well. Harvard hasn't played since Jan. 11, and I expect the Crimson to be rusty as a result. The numbers support this expectation as Harvard is 1-10 ATS under coach Amaker when playing with 7 days of rest or more, losing by an average score of 72.6 to 67.8 in these contests. FAU is off a loss to Old Dominion, but it is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Hawks +5.5
The Key: This is a tough situation for Miami, which is playing its third road games in four days and was pushed to overtime its last time out. This will be just the third game in 10 days for Atlanta so it will be the far fresher side. The Hawks should also be the more motivated team as they look to bounce back from back-to-back losses and avenge losses to the Heat in the season's first two meetings. Home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games and are playing three games or less in 10 days are 63-30 ATS since 1996. Miami is 3-13 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road wins over the last 2 seasons while Atlanta is 10-0 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.4 points in this situation.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on DePaul +6
The Key: I'm not ready to trust Xavier laying this many points on the road considering it has only one win of more than six points away from home this season in six games. It has played just two true road games this season, going 1-1 with the victory coming by only three points. DePaul was embarrassed at Villanova Saturday so it will be looking to bounce back strong at home where it is 7-3 on the season. You want to fade road teams like Xavier that are holding opponents to 40.0-42.5 percent shooting on the season if they are up against a team like DePaul that is allowing 45.0-47.5 percent shooting on the season and have shot 47.0% or better from the field in four straight games. Doing so has produced a 40-12 ATS mark since 1997 that tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last five season and 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings +8
The Key: Off back-to-back win wins over the Rockets and Warriors where the Thunder had to expend a lot of energy, and with big games against Portland and San Antonio on deck, they will come out flat here. Sacramento is quietly playing very well, especially against good teams. The Kings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 with outright wins over the Heat, Rockets and Trail Blazers during this stretch. They played the Thunder to a two-point game at home Dec. 3 so they will enter this contest believing they can win. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus Western Conference foes, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. The Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Monmouth +3.5
The Key: Off a big upset win Friday at Iona, Canisius will have a tough time getting up for a Monmouth squad it defeated by 20 a week ago. In addition, this is the second road game in three days for the Golden Griffins, and they have struggled on the road where they are 3-5 this season. Monmouth hasn't played since Thursday so it has had an extra day of preparation time. The thing to note about the first meeting is Canisius was 14 of 30 from three-point range while Monmouth was 4 of 17. That's a 30-point disparity. The Golden Griffins average just seven three-point makes per game on the road. Plus, Monmouth will place a bigger emphasis on defending the perimeter shot this time around. Monmouth averages seven three-point makes per game at home so I expect it to shoot the ball much better this afternoon. Given the situational elements and the change of venue, the three-point disparity should shrink considerably, giving Monmouth an excellent opportunity to cover this number. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 9-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games since 1997. Teams headed up by Jim Baron are 17-32 ATS off a road win against a conference rival since 1997. Take the points.

6* Big Ten Powerhouse on Illinois +5
The Key: Illinois has lost 3 in a row. It let a blowout loss at Wisconsin turn into a bad loss at Northwestern and a bad loss at Northwestern turn into a bad loss at Purdue. Despite this disappointing stretch, the Fighting Illini will have no trouble getting up for the 4th-ranked Spartans. While Illinois is one of those teams that seem to underachieve most years given the talent it has, the point is it has talent, the kind of talent that has given Michigan State big problems in recently. Illinois is 3-0 in its last 3 home games against the Spartans, and it hasn't lost by more than 5 points in any of the past 5 meetings. Because Illinois has played Michigan State so tough, the Spartans are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Look for this trend to continue tonight as the Fighting Illini fight hard to give Sparty a game.

7* Big 12 Game of the Week on TCU +3
The Key: Texas Tech shot out of its mind (57.1%) and upset Baylor last time out, but don't expect an encore performance. The Red Raiders are 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 9.0 points on average. TCU has taken it on the chin in 3 straight games, but it will have no trouble getting up for this one as it is likely its most winnable game the rest of the way. While offense has let the Horned Frogs down at times this season, the defense has been there for the most part, especially at home where they are holding opponents to 40.5% shooting. They are holding foes to 41.4% shooting in all contests, which is very significant because Texas Tech is only 3-11 ATS in road games the last 2 seasons versus good defensive teams that hold opponents to 42% shooting or less. The Red Raiders have lost by an average score of 75.3 to 58.1 in these contests. The Red Raiders are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games. Take the points as TCU gets the job done behind a strong defensive effort.

6* SEC Late Afternoon Annihilator on Auburn +8.5
The Key: You want to fade favorites like Florida that check in off a win of 20 points or more over a conference foe, provided they have a win percentage of 80% or higher and are playing a team with a 51-60% win rate. Doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. In addition, Florida is just 1-9 ATS the last 2 seasons when it checks into a contest with 2 covers in its last 3 games. Also, the Gators are a soft 7-16 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Donovan. Auburn was brutally embarrassed at home by Florida last season to the tune of 83-52. It was a 17.5-point dog in that contest and now it is getting just 8.5 points. The books clearly expect the Tigers to give Florida a game this time around, and I completely agree. Take the points.

6* WCC *CA$H COW* on Loyola Marymount +9.5
The Key: Loyola has lost 5 in a row, with the last 2 defeats coming by double digits, and it has lost 4 straight to Gonzaga by double digits, yet it is catching less than 10 points? The books clearly want the money on the Bulldogs, but we won't oblige them. The Lions are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. They are also 11-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 3 seasons and 12-2 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams like Gonzaga that are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game or more. The Lions know they must bring their "A" game to have a chance. I expect them to do so in this highly motivated spot, getting us the cover in the process.

6* SEC Early Annihilator on Georgia +2.5
The Key: It's going to be mighty tough for Arkansas to get up for this game following a big overtime win against Kentucky. In addition, the Razorbacks haven't been even close to the same team on the road. Arkansas is 6-15 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons, 8-19 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pickem since 1997 and 13-37 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. The Razorbacks are also 5-15 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons, 1-9 ATS in road games off a home win while scoring 85 or more points over the last 3 seasons, 1-9 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons and 4-15 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Georgia checks in off a 22-point loss at Florida, but it is 12-3 off a road loss by 10 points or more under coach Fox and 19-6 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent under Fox. Georgia slower pace of play has given Arkansas fits. The Bulldogs have won 3 of the past 4 meetings with the lone loss coming by just 2 points. Georgia won 81-59 the last time it hosted Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 4-14 ATS in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots per game since 1997. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -6
The Key: The Spurs have lost three straight to Portland, including a 136-106 beat down the last time they hosted the Trail Blazers, and they will be extremely motivated as a result. Portland hasn't been the juggernaut that it was early in the season and is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games, including 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games, as a result. The Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. Portland is 6-17 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 44-25 ATS in home games after 6 or more consecutive wins under coach Popovich. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on Loyola Marymount -3
The Key: Look for a letdown from Portland as it plays a true road game for the first time since Dec. 7 after a huge upset win over Gonzaga. Loyola has dropped four in a row but all four were on the road. Now the Lions are back home where they are 5-0 this season. The Pilots are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a win and 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Portland has been a terrible underdog investment. In fact, it is 49-76 ATS as an underdog under coach Reveno. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Denver -7.5
The Key: Denver has been an outstanding investment at home over the years as teams haven't been able to deal with playing at the mile-high altitude. In fact, the Pioneers are 69-45 ATS as a home favorite or pickem since 1997 and 67-44 ATS in home games against conference opponents since 1997. Denver checks in off an upset loss at South Dakota, which is significant because it is 14-4 ATS in home games following a road loss to a conference foe under coach Joe Scott. It is also 10-1 ATS under Scott in home games after playing a game as a road favorite, including 6-0 ATS in this spot the last 3 seasons. It has won these six games by an average of 20.7 points. The Pioneers got no favors from the refs in their last two road games, which actually bodes well for us here as they are 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons after 2 straight games where their opponents were called for 15 or less fouls. They have won these contests by an average score of 71.1 to 55.4. IUPU Ft. Wayne relies on shooting a high percentage from 3-point range. It averages 8 3-point makes per game on 40.4% shooting. It takes fresh legs to knock down perimeter shots and teams experience more fatigue when playing in Denver. Plus, the Pioneers have done an excellent job defending the three this season, holding opponents to an average of just 4 makes per game. Denver is an awesome 9-0 ATS under coach Scott in home games versus teams who make an average of 8 or more 3 point shots per game. It has defeated these foes by an average score of 74.9 to 60.3. Lay the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech +4
The Key: Baylor checks in off a 26-point beatdown of TCU, but it is 1-11 ATS under coach Drew after a cover as a double digit favorite and has lost by an average score of 73.6 to 73.2 in this spot. So clearly Baylor has not been immune to letdowns following blowout victories. Baylor absolutely destroyed Texas Tech in last season's meetings so it will be much more concerned about upcoming games against Oklahoma and Kansas. This is a game Texas Tech had circled entering the season, and the Red Raiders are playing with a ton of confidence under Tubby Smith. They are 0-3 in Big 12 play but have been in all 3 games. Take the points.

6* NBA Letdown Game of the Week on Bucks +5.5
The Key: Look for the Grizzlies to come out flat tonight following last night's big win over Oklahoma City. This is also Memphis' first road game since Jan. 5 so a change in venue should contribute to a flat performance. Memphis is a soft 54-78 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Milwaukee is on a 64-40 ATS run after 4 or more consecutive losses. It has also won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in six of its last eight home games against the Grizzlies. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Milwaukee catches Memphis at the right time and keeps this one close. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Celtics +4.5
The Key: Toronto has covered the spread in 10 straight and is being overvalued as a result. The Celtics have lost nine in a row and will go after this game with all they've got to try to get off the snide. Boston will be lacking no confidence given the success it's had at home against Toronto. It is 10-0 at home against the Raptors since the start of the 2008-09 season, winning these games by 16.3 points on average. Take the points as Boston gives the Raptors a game tonight.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on 76ers +1
The Key: This is a bad situation for the Bobcats. It is a letdown spot for them following a big win over the Knicks. It is also a fatigued spot as they are playing their second game in as many nights and their fourth game in six days. The Bobcats are 17-37 ATS the last three seasons in the second game of a back-to-back. This is a good spot for the 76ers, who have had three days to gear up for this game. The 76ers should also be the more motivated team having lost the season's first meeting. Philly is the more explosive offensive team, averaging 9.1 points per game more than Charlotte. Odds makers have set a total of 207.0 and that number favors Philly. Consider that the Bobcats are just 1-10 ATS in road games when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these games by an average score of 114.3 to 90.8. The 76ers are 5-0 in their last five home games against Charlotte, winning them by an average of 11.6 points. Take the 76ers.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech +2.5
The Key: Clemson upset Duke last game, but it is 0-7 ATS off an upset win of 10 points or more at home since 1997. It hasn't just lost in this situation, it has lost by an average score of 78.3 to 59.1. The home team has had the decisive edge recently, winning each of the last 6 matchups by an average of 6.5 points. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take VA Tech.

6* MVC *CA$H COW* on Southern Illinois +6.5
The Key: Northern Iowa isn't the same team outside Cedar Falls. The Panthers are just 3-7 in games played away from home this season. They are just 13-23 ATS as a road favorite or pickem under coach Jacobson. They are also 0-6 ATS in road games the last two seasons when checking in with three wins in their last four games. They have lost by an average score of 68.0 to 58.3 in this situation. The home team has had the edge in this series, going 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the lone loss coming by only four points. Take the Salukis.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats -109
The Key: This is a bad situation for the Knicks, who are playing their third game in four days and were pushed to overtime last night. Charlotte will be the fresher side as it has had the last two days off. This is also a look-ahead situation for New York, which has a big game at Indiana Thursday. The Bobcats have lost three in a row so they will be extremely focused on the task at hand. They were also defeated on this court the last time they faced the Knicks so they will be out for revenge. The Bobcats are an impressive 12-2 ATS in their last 14 Atlantic division foes and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus the Knicks. Take Charlotte.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on George Washington +2.5
The Key: This experienced George Washington team has been taking excellent care of the basketball and that gives it an excellent opportunity to take care of business tonight. VCU relies on forcing turnovers to create points. That's why it is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in games played 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams like GW that average 12 turnovers or less per game. The Rams have lost these games by an average score of 74.7 to 65.0. It is also worth noting that GW is on a 10-1 ATS run in home games versus high-pressure defensive teams like VCU that force an average of 18 turnovers per game or more. The Colonials have won by an average score of 84.8 to 76.7 in these contests. In addition, GW is a perfect 8-0 ATS in January home games under coach Lonergan. VCU is just 1-8 ATS the last two seasons as a road favorite or pickem. Take the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College +9
The Key: Boston College checks in off a 62-59 win at Virginia Tech, which is significant because such wins have given the Eagles a boost of confidence in recent years. In fact, B.C. is 7-0 ATS following a close win of three points or less the last three seasons. In addition, B.C. is an awesome 13-3 ATS in home games that occur 15 games or more into the schedule versus top-caliber opponents that outscore the opposition by 12.0 points per game or more. You also want to fade road favorites or pickems in games that occur 15 games or more into the schedule in a matchup between average offensive teams that average 67.0-74.0 ppg, provided the team we are fading has held its opponents to 65 points of less in five straight games. Doing so has produced a 31-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. Off a big win over North Carolina and with a showdown against Pitt on deck, the Orange won't give Boston College enough focus. That gives the Eagles an excellent opportunity to cover this number tonight.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pelicans +6.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Spurs, who are being asked to go on the road without rest to face a team they have struggled against. San Antonio has defeated the Pelicans by more than five points just once in the past five meetings. In addition, it hasn't won by more than four points in its last five games in New Orleans, going 0-5 ATS in these games as a result. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back losses to Dallas, but it is a perfect 9-0 ATS following two consecutive division games over the last three seasons, winning by an average score of 95.1 to 94.2 in this situation. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 Powerhouse on USC +12
The Key: I expect a letdown from Arizona following a huge win over UCLA. I also expect an inspired effort from USC following back-to-back disappointing performances. You want to fade favorites of 10.0-19.5 points that are undefeated on the season and have covered the spread in 4 or 5 or their last 6 games. Doing so has produced a 36-19 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Trojans are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, teams headed up by coach Andy Enfield are 7-0 ATS all-time 15 games or more into the schedule when playing against a team that has a winning record. USC won last season's home meeting 89-78 as a 7-point dog. The Trojans have won or lost by fewer than 12 points in each of their last 8 home games against the Wildcats. They have won or lost by 12 points or less in 12 straight at home in the series. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Tennessee-Martin +11.5
The Key: Tennessee-Martin has had five days to prepare for this game, and it will be hungry to avenge last season's brutally embarrassing loss at Belmont. The Bruins have been a poor investment following a cover at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Furthermore, they are 1-8 ATS under coach Byrd in road games off a road win of 10 points or more, only winning by 2.2 points on average in this situation. The Bruins are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points.

7* WCC Game of the Month on Pacific -5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Santa Clara following Thursday's huge win at St. Mary's. Pacific, on the other hand, will be in extreme bounce-back mode after an 0-4 start in conference play. Pacific fell at home to Santa Clara last season and will be further fueled by that loss. Pacific is 17-7 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and 35-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. Lay the points.

6* AAC Game of the Week on Temple +7.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Memphis following a big win at Louisville Thursday. Temple, meanwhile, will be in bounce-back mode after being upset by South Florida. The Owls are a terrific 16-4 ATS under coach Dunphy in home games versus very good teams like Memphis that outscore opponents by 8+ points/game. Temple has defeated these teams by an average score of 74.8 to 71.4. The Owls are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

7* Big East Game of the Year on St. John's +5
The Key: Motivated by an 0-2 start in conference play and further motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to Villanova last season, St. John's is in prime position to pull off the upset. The Johnnies have had six days to prepare for this game while Villanova has had only two days. Plus, St. John's has been outstanding at home where it is 7-1 on the season with the loss coming by only five points to Syracuse. St. John's is 8-1 ATS off a loss of 10 points or more to a conference foe over the last 2 seasons. It is also 9-2 ATS under Lavin in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take the points.

6* Early Annihilator on Oklahoma +3.5
The Key: Look for Oklahoma to give Iowa State all it wants and more here. The Cyclones are a good team, but they have benefited from a home-heavy schedule to this point. This is just their third true road game of the season, and they struggled in the previous two against BYU and Texas Tech. Oklahoma likes to play a free-flowing style, which is evident by its 92.0 ppg average at home. Iowa State's style of play feeds right into what Oklahoma likes to do. The Sooners are 7-0 ATS in home games under coach Kruger versus teams like Iowa State that average 17 fouls per game of less. They have won these games by 13.0 points on average. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +7.5
The Key: The Kings have some nice recent wins against the Heat, Rockets and Trail Blazers. However, they have some bad recent losses against the Pelicans, 76ers and Bobcats. This tells me Sacramento is getting up for the good teams (and those teams are overlooking the Kings) and not coming to play against lesser competition. In fact, the Kings are just 7-18 ATS in home games versus teams that have a losing record over the last two seasons and have lost to these teams by an average score of 104.2 to 102.9. Looking back further, Sacramento is a lousy 19-40-2 ATS in its last 61 games versus teams that have a losing record. The Kings won in Orlando 105-100 Dec. 21 for a third straight win in the series so I don't see them being nearly as hungry as an Orlando team that is looking to avenge that loss and looking to snap a five-game skid overall. The Kings are 0-10 ATS as a favorite under coach Michael Malone, losing these games by an average score of 105.7 to 98.0. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on Portland +9
The Key: You want to fade any team like Gonzaga that checks in off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference opponent if they have a winning percentage of 80% or higher and are playing a team with a 51-60% win percentage. Doing so has produced a 36-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Teams fitting thee parameters have been favored by 9.5 points on average but have won by only 6.7 points on average. Gonzaga hasn't played a true road game in a month, and it is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Bulldogs are also 2-10 ATS the last three seasons in road games after 3 straight wins of 10 points or more. They have won these games on average but only by 2.5 points. The Pilots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Nebraska +4
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to start Big Ten play, and further fueled by double-digit losses to Michigan each of the past two seasons, this experienced Nebraska team will play some inspired basketball on its home floor this evening. Nebraska has been tough as nails at home where it is 9-0 in its last nine. This young Michigan squad, which is without arguably its best player (Mitch McGary), will have a tough time making it out of Lincoln alive. The Wolverines check in off a blowout win over Northwestern. However, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are also just 8-17 ATS off a win of 10 points or more over a conference foe under coach Beilein, losing these contests by an average score of 65.0 to 63.1. The Wolverines are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 versus the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers are 11-2 ATS off a loss to a conference foe under coach Miles. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Powerhouse on Washington State +7.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back ugly losses on the road and further fueled by an upset loss to Colorado last season, look for Washington State to step up when it takes the floor at Spokane Arena tonight. The Buffaloes are off a big 100-91 win over Oregon, which puts them squarely in letdown mode. The Buffaloes are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game, including 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. These trends speak to the way odds makers overvalue teams following strong offensive performances. We are getting additional line value here because Washington State is coming off two putrid offensive performances. Consider that the Cougars are on a 25-12 ATS run when playing away from their home arena after being held to 60 points or less in two straight games. Teams headed up by coach Ken Bone are 34-18 ATS all-time after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Take the points.

6* NBA Motivational Mismatch on Hawks +5
The Key: Atlanta will undoubtedly be the more motivated team tonight. The Pacers are off a satisfying revenge win over Toronto last night, and they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Hawks have dropped three in a row, which is motivation enough, but they will be even more juiced up by the fact they were knocked out of the playoffs by the Pacers last season. Indy has had significant struggles in Atlanta, going 1-13 in its last 14 meetings there, including 0-11 in the regular season. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on Nets +6.5
The Key: This is a terrible spot for Golden State, which is playing its second road game in as many days, its third road game in four days and its seventh road game in 11 days. With all the travel and virtually no rest, I don't see Golden State having enough left in the tank to cover this number against a rested Brooklyn team that is playing its best basketball of the season. The Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win while the Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 road meetings. Take the points as Brooklyn has an excellent opportunity to win this game outright.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on Providence +2.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats to open conference play and out to end an 8-game losing streak to Georgetown, I expect Providence to take care of business at home where it is 7-1 this season. That lone loss came by a single point so the Friars have been within this number in all 8 home games this season. I'm not hesitating to get behind this 8-0 trend given the level of motivation Providence has here. The Hoyas check in off a blowout win over St. John's, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +7
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Thunder, who will be playing their third game in four days. Utah will be the fresher side as it has had three days off prior to this game. Utah will also be the hungrier side because it has lost the season's first two meetings. The Jazz played the Thunder to a three-point game at home in the season opener when Oklahoma City didn't have Russell Westbrook available, and that will be the case again tonight. The Jazz didn't have Trey Burke available for that game, but he'll be in the lineup tonight. He's been a major contributor since making his way into the lineup. He leads the team in assists per game and has emerged as the third leading scorer. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points while the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on TCU +5.5
The Key: Off a big upset win over Oklahoma State and with a big game at rival Kansas on deck, the Wildcats won't give TCU their full attention. TCU, on the other hand, will be very focused after opening Big 12 play with a loss and after losing both of last season's meetings with the Wildcats. This is Kansas State's first true road game of the season, and it has not been a good investment on the road. The Wildcats are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record. K-State is also just 6-18 ATS in Tuesday night road games since 1997, losing these by an average score of 76.0 to 66.8. Take TCU.

7* Southern Conference Game of the Month on Citadel +4.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Chattanooga, which is off an upset win at Furman and playing its second road game in three days. The Citadel has had three days to prepare for this contest, and they will be lacking no motivation after losing both of last season's meetings. Chattanooga is a soft 56-84 ATS when playing on one or less days' rest since 1997. The Mocs are just 5-14 ATS in road games following a conference game over the last 3 seasons and 37-60 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997. It is also worth noting that they are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games when matched up against a team with a win percentage of .200 to .400 in games played 15 games or more into the schedule. They have lost these games by an average of 10.5 points. The Citadel is 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons when checking in with losses in 4 of its last 5 games. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Wizards +3.5
The Key: This is a difficult situation for the Warriors, who are playing their third road game in four days and their fifth road game in eight days. Washington has been at home to start the month and has had at least one day of rest in between each of its four games. The Wizards will be very hungry here because they have lost their last two games at home, and this is their last home game before they head out on the road for three games. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Washington is also 20-8 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference Annihilator on Rice +12
The Key: Off a big win over rival Boston College, and with a big game at UConn on deck, it will be easy for Harvard to look right past a Rice team it defeated 92-62 last season. Rice will be very motivated by that defeat, which gives it an opportunity to pull off the shocker against a Harvard team that will likely be napping. You want to back underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points hat have gone under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games as doing so has produced a 6-1 ATS mark this season, a 16-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and a 29-5 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Also, Harvard is just 2-9 ATS under coach Amaker in road games after leading their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half. Take the points.

7* Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year on Bradley +4.5
The Key: Motivated by Wednesday's 80-46 loss at Northern Iowa and further fueled by an 81-66 loss to Drake in last season's MVC Tournament, Bradley will be all business when it takes the floor this evening. In fact, I expect Geno Ford's squad to pull the upset against a Drake team that will be riding a little too high on the horse following a 94-66 win over Evansville. Bradley is 9-2 ATS all-time under Ford in home games following a loss of 15 points or more. It has won by an average score of 72.1 to 64.9 in this situation. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +4
The Key: This is a game ULM has circled prior to the season. It lost both games to the Ragin' Cajuns last season and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. This is a poor spot for ULL for a number of reasons. The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a win, 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games versus a team with a winning home record. ULL is also only 2-9 ATS off any home win the last two seasons, losing by an average score of 76.6 to 71.1 in these games. Take the points.

6* NBA Western Conference Annihilator on Nuggets -3.5
The Key: Motivated by 8 consecutive defeats, one of which being a 120-99 beatdown in Memphis Dec. 28, the Nuggets will want this game more. Denver held a team meeting following an ugly home loss to Philadelphia, and I expect maximum effort in the aftermath. Denver is 27-2 in its last 29 at home versus Memphis, including 10-1 in the last 11. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with an 8.4-point average margin of victory. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Hawks +3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for Golden State following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a fatigued spot for the Warriors, who are playing their third road game in four days. Atlanta will be the much fresher side as it has had two days off. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. The Hawks have been fantastic at home where they are 8-1 in their last nine, including 5-0 in their last five. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the West, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Pacific division and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. You want to fade road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that went over the total by more than 18 points in their last game if they carry a .600 to .750 win percentage and are matched up against a team that has a winning record. Doing so has produced an 18-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. Lastly, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Eastern Conference Annihilator on Wizards -2.5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Toronto, which is coming off a big win over Indiana and has Miami on deck. The Wizards will be out for revenge for an earlier loss in Toronto, and I like their chances considering they are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against the Raptors, winning these by an average of 10.6 points. The Wizards lost their last game to Dallas but are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the East and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Atlantic division. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Knicks +11
The Key: The Knicks have had four days to prepare for this game while the Spurs have had just one. The Knicks have lost three in a row by double digits and were hammered at home by the Spurs in the first meeting so New York will be lacking no motivation. San Antonio has a big revenge game against the Clippers up next so it will be very easy for it to look ahead to that contest. The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. You also want to fade home favorites of 10 or more points after 3 or more consecutive wins if they carry a win percentage of .750 or higher and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 50-27 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern +10.5
The Key: Right away, we find that the odds are in our favor as fading favorites of 10 points or more that check in with a winning streak of at least 10 games has produced a 147-96 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, you want to fade favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that are undefeated on the season and have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 35-15 ATS mark the last five seasons. Wisconsin hasn't been on the road in a month, and it is 12-22 ATS all-time under coach Ryan in road games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. Wisconsin is on a 6-16 ATS slide after three consecutive covers as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in its last six road games following three or more consecutive home games. Northwestern lost by one point to DePaul last game, but it is 8-0 ATS after a loss of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 74.1 to 62.9 in this spot. Wisconsin buried Northwestern by 28 when it visited last season, and the Wildcats haven't forgotten. Take the points as Northwestern gives Wisconsin a game.

6* NBA Blowout on Rockets -9.5
The Key: As if Houston's 117-86 loss in Oklahoma City isn't enough motivation, it was defeated 106-91 in Sacramento earlier this month. Expect a big bounce back from the Rockets here. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. They have bounced back from each of their last 3 defeats with wins of 15, 17 and 13 points. They are also 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games versus the Kings, winning these by an average of 14.0 points. Lay the number.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +18.5
The Key: Off a big win over Villanova, Syracuse won't give its full attention to an Eastern Michigan team it defeated 84-48 last season. Eastern Mich brings back almost everyone from last year's team, and it will be out for revenge. Syracuse is on a 36-55 ATS slide in home games after a win of 15 points or more. Plus, you want to fade undefeated favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive wins as doing so has produced a 67-36 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Miami, which will be playing its 4th road game in 6 days and is coming off a very emotional win in Portland. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade came through for the Heat against the Trail Blazers with LeBron James sitting out, but I don't see them having enough legs left here in high-altitude Denver with James unlikely to go again. Denver has lost six straight so it will be lacking no motivation. The Nuggets are 10-1 in their last 11 home games versus the Heat, and I believe their home-court will hold up. Take the Nuggets.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavs +6.5
The Key: The Cavs are being undervalued at home where they have been extremely competitive. They are 8-6 at home on the season, and three of their losses have come by fewer than 6.5 points, which means they have won or lost by less than 6.5 points in 11 of 14 home games this season. That's a sweet 11-3 trend in our favor. The Cavs beat the Clippers by six points in one of their home games and played the Trail Blazers to a three-point contest in another, which proves they have what it takes to hang with the best of the West in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus Western Conference opponents. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks +7.5
The Key: Minnesota rolled at home last night against Washington, and that victory puts it in a poor spot tonight. The Timberwolves are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win and 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a win of more than 10 points. It is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Minnesota shouldn't be laying this many points on the road where it is just 5-11 this season. Plus, the Bucks have won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 of their last 11 home meetings against Minnesota. We'll get behind this sweet 10-1 trend. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Hofstra +9.5
The Key: Hofstra will be lacking no motivation this afternoon as it goes up against a George Washington squad it lost to by 24 points last season. Because the Colonials rolled over the Pride so easily last season, they will be looking ahead to Tuesday's New Year's Eve showdown at Kansas State. George Washington has been an ugly investment in non-conference action at 18-40-2 ATS in its last 60 non-conference games. The Colonials are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 versus Colonial Athletic Association foes. The Pride, on the other hand, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points as Hofstra keeps this one within the number.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +3.5
The Key: The Pistons check in off a 115-92 win at Cleveland. However, you want to fade road favorites off a double-digit road win if they have a losing record on the season. Doing so has produced a 50-26 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Pistons start a home-and-home with Washington tomorrow and will be more concerned about the Wizards. The Magic, on the other hand, will be focused on the task at hand following three consecutive defeats at home. The Magic have been very competitive against the Pistons, winning or losing by less than 3.5 points in four of their last five meetings, including all three at home during this stretch. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavs +3
The Key: The Cavs have been very competitive at home where they are 8-5 on the season. A 115-92 home loss to Detroit in their last game can't be sitting well. Neither can a 108-89 loss in Atlanta in the season's first meeting. Motivated by the loss to Detroit and further fueled by the loss to Atlanta, Cleveland will take care of business at home against the Hawks, who are just 4-9 on the road. Underdogs off an upset loss of 10 points or more that are up against an opponent off a road cover in a game they lost straight up are 2-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons, 11-2 ATS the last 5 seasons and 30-8 ATS since 1996. In addition, home teams that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more and check in off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 64-31 ATS since 1996. Take the Cavs.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors -2
The Key: This game is about revenge for the Warriors, who lost the season's first meeting on the road. The home team has had the edge of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with an average winning margin of 16.3 points. The Clippers are also just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings at Golden State. The Clippers have an even bigger game the 26th in Portland so they could be looking ahead here. Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when the total is between 205.0 and 209.5 points since the beginning of last season. It has won these contests by an average score of 110.3 to 99.2. You want to fade road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced an 18-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -1
The Key: As if a three-game losing streak isn't enough motivation, the Nuggets will be fueled even more so by the fact Golden State sent them home in last season's playoffs. Look for Denver to have its revenge at home, where it is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings with Golden State. The Warriors have a big Christmas game against the Clippers, and that's a revenge game so I believe they'll be looking ahead. The Warriors handled the Lakers last time out, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Take Denver.

6* NBA *TOP DOG* on Nets +7
The Key: Indiana will come into this game overconfident following back-to-back blowout victories and knowing Brook Lopez is out. The Nets will be the more motivated team following back-to-back defeats and a 5-point loss to the Pacers in the first meeting. They will also be the fresher side as they have had two days off while Indiana played last night. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Pacers are also on a dismal 4-15 ATS skid in road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. They have lost by an average score of 99.3 to 92.9 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +12.5
The Key: Off back-to-back defeats and out to avenge a 97-82 loss to Indiana in the season's first meeting, Boston will be lacking no motivation when it takes the floor this evening. The Pacers are off a 114-81 win over Houston, but you want to fade favorites of 10 points or more if they held their last opponent to 85 points or less. Doing so has produced a 409-294 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 53-31 ATS the last 3 seasons and 7-4 ATS this season. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Celtics are 3-0 ATS this season as underdogs of 12 points or more while the Pacers are 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or more this season. Take the points.

6* National TV Annihilator (ESPNU) on New Mexico +2.5
The Key: Marquette checks in off back-to-back blowout wins over IUPUI and Ball State. However, it is 0-6 ATS after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 7.0 points in this spot. New Mexico got kicked by Kansas and followed up that game with an apathetic performance at home against a New Mexico State team it had already defeated by nine on the road. Rest assured, a bounce-back is coming from this experienced New Mexico squad, and I believe it happens right here. The Lobos are 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 18.3 points in this spot. It is also worth noting that New Mexico is 8-1 ATS in games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +4.5
The Key: Motivated by last night's embarrassing loss in Atlanta, the Jazz will take their frustrations out on a Charlotte team they have owned. Utah is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, winning them by 11.0 points on average. The Bobcats used a lot of energy in last night's comeback win in Detroit while the Jazz didn't have a single player over 30 minutes in a game that was over early. This is also Charlotte's 4th game in 5 days while it is Utah's 4th game in 7 days so the Jazz should be the fresher team. The Bobcats are 14-31 ATS in their last 45 games when playing without a day of rest. Charlotte is improved, but it has also benefited from playing in the weak Eastern Conference. It has really struggled against the West, going 15-37-1 ATS in its last 53 non-conference contests. Take the points.