Sports Picks & Predictions

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on SMU -8.5
The Key: SMU has been unbelievable at home where it is 17-1 on the season. All but one of these wins came by more than 8.5 points. The Mustangs are 12-1 ATS as a home favorite or pickem this season, winning these games by an average score of 74.7 to 57.7. It is also worth noting that SMU is 8-1 ATS in home non-conference contests under Larry Brown and 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference matchups overall. Cal is just 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine, losing its two true road games during this span by 28 and 18. The Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Wizards +2.5
The Key: The Suns are fighting for a playoff spot so motivation is not an issue. However, fatigue will be. This is their third road game in four days, and it comes against a Washington team that has had the last two days off. The Wizards have had Phoenix's number of late, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings with a 12.3-point average margin of victory. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade teams seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent if the opponent checks in off a road loss. Doing so has produced a 236-142 ATS mark the last five seasons. This system is 26-12 ATS on the season. The Suns have been very good on the road this season, but Washington is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home games versus teams that have a winning road record. Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Magic +5
The Key: This is a tough situation for Portland. Last night, the Trail Blazers spent a lot of energy erasing a 17-point deficit against Miami only to come up two points short when Damian Lillard's potential game-tying layup was blocked with just over a second to go. It will be very difficult for the Blazers to get up for this one physically and emotionally following such a tough loss. Portland is just 3-7 in its last 10 games overall and 4-12 in its last 16 on the road. The Magic have quietly been competitive at home where they have won or lost by five points or fewer in 11 of their last 13. They are 10-3 ATS during this span. Portland won the first meeting 110-94, but the final score is misleading as Orlando led the game 75-71 before being outscored 39-19 in the fourth. I don't see Portland having enough left in the take for another fourth-quarter explosion, especially on the road this time around. Plus, the Blazers are expected to be without LaMarcus Aldridge, who had 36 points in that contest. The Magic have had a day of rest, and they don't play again until Friday so they will leave it all on the floor to avoid a 10th straight loss and get a little revenge. Portland is playing its third road game in four days and has games Thursday and Friday against tough opponents so it very well could be looking to conserve some energy here. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

6* NIT Annihilator on Clemson -7
The Key: These teams played one like opponent this season - North Carolina. Belmont won 83-80 at North Carolina while Clemson lost 80-61 in Chapel Hill. Yet, the Tigers are laying seven points? Odds makers appear to be begging for action on Belmont with this line, but we won't oblige them. Belmont is one of the best offensive teams in the country statistically, but its stats are bolstered by playing in a weak conference. The Bruins won't get anything easy against a Clemson defense that ranks fourth in the country in points allowed per game (57.9) and first in three-point field goal percentage defense (27.9%). Belmont's hasn't been good at all this season, especially in non-conference play. It allowed 53.64% shooting in losses at South Dakota State, Denver, Kentucky and Indiana State and a home loss to VCU. It lost these games by an average of 15.8 points. These games paint the more truthful picture of this team, not the North Carolina game. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off two or more consecutive home wins if they are a team from a major D1 conference against a team from a mid-major D1 league. Doing so has produced a 40-14 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by an average of 7.6 points and have won by an average of 10.7. Lay the number.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Hawks +1.5
The Key: This isn't a good situation for Phoenix. It will be very difficult for the Suns to avoid a letdown after expending a lot of energy to erase a 22-point deficit against the Timberwolves yesterday. Phoenix is fighting to make the playoffs, but the Hawks are fighting to hang onto the eight-seed, and I expect them to be a little bit hungrier following back-to-back defeats. Atlanta blew a late double-digit lead against Toronto yesterday, getting outscored 36-15 in the fourth. That ugly collapse along with a 129-120 loss in Phoenix earlier this month assures me the Hawks will come ready to play this evening. Atlanta is on a 53-33 ATS run at home when seeking revenge for a loss where it gave up 110 points or more. Take Atlanta.

7* NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -7.5
The Key: Mercer returns four starters from a team that defeated Tennessee by eight points in the NIT last season, and it is catching 7.5 points? The Bears were 8.5-point underdogs in that game and are catching nearly as much here. And this comes after a strong performance against No. 3 seed Duke. Clearly, the books aren't sold on Mercer. Tennessee didn't show up in last season's matchup with Mercer as it allowed the Bears to shoot 50% from the floor and score 75 points. With that poor performance serving as added motivation, I expect a Tennessee team that's holding foes to 61.3 points and 40.9% shooting to show up in a big way here. Mercer is a good offensive team, but Tennessee is 7-1 ATS this season versus teams averaging 77.0 ppg or more. The Vols have held these teams to 64.7 points while averaging 74.2 against them. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after four or more consecutive wins if they are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament. Doing so has produced a 44-16 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by 9.8 points on average. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on North Carolina +2
The Key: Iowa State was dealt a big blow in its win over NC Central with Georges Niang breaking his foot. The Cyclones are a perimeter-oriented team to begin with, but they become even more so now because Niang was their best post scorer. He's also a guy they typically count on in crunch time. Without Niang, the Cyclones are easier to defend. They will also rely more heavily on the three-point shot in his absence, which doesn't bode well since North Carolina is holding opponents to just 31.1% shooting from three on the season. By and large, the UNC defense has been outstanding during its 13-2 run. The Tar Heels played their worst defensive game in a long time against Providence and will be more focused on that end here as a result. You want to back teams like UNC that have failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games when they are up against an opponent that has covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 139-83 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Roy Williams' UNC teams are 101-67 ATS all-time in non-conference play. The Heels should be able to dominate the paint in this one. That, combined with the absence of Niang, gives UNC the edge.

7* Saturday NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -5
The Key: I played on Oregon Thursday as the Ducks got a great draw. Not only had they already seen and defeated BYU this season, but the Cougars were without their most versatile player. I am going against the Ducks here, though, as Wisconsin is a bad matchup for them. The Badgers are the far superior defensive team, and, unlike some years, they have no trouble scoring the basketball. Oregon has given up 75.1 ppg in games played away from home this season, and that's not going to cut it. Wiscy, meanwhile, has held opponents to just 63.4 ppg in games played outside Madison. It is also to Wisconsin's benefit that this game is being played not too far outside Madison. This will be like a home game in regard to the amount of fan support the Badgers will receive. Oregon shoots a high percentage from three and gets to the foul line, but get this - Wisconsin is 12-3 ATS in games played away from home the last three seasons versus teams that shoot 37% or better from 3-point range. It has won these games by an average of 7.7 points. It is also worth noting that the Badgers are 22-7 ATS in games taking place 15 games or more into the season versus teams that attempt 25 free throws per game or more. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats +1
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a humiliating 30-point loss at Portland in the season's first meeting, Charlotte will take care of business at home in this advantageous spot. The Bobcats have had the last two days off to gear up for this revenge game, and they are a strong 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when playing on two days' rest. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with wins over Indiana, Memphis and Dallas during this span. They also have home wins over Golden State and the Clippers this season and are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 versus the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers are struggling on the road where they are 4-10 in their last 14. They have had just one day off since beating Washington and spent it traveling. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points. Take Charlotte.

6* NCAA Tournament Early Annihilator on Florida -5
The Key: Pittsburgh rolled against Colorado while Florida struggled against Albany, but I believe we'll see a role reversal here. While Florida's offense hasn't been very good the last few games, its defense has, and that's a great sign. The Gators are 6-0 ATS in games played away from home after holding opponents to 60 points or less in four straight games under coach Donovan. They have won by an average score of 75.0 to 59.4 in this situation. It is also worth noting that Florida is 14-4 ATS under Donovan off two straight wins where it didn't cover the spread. It has won by an average score of 80.3 to 64.6 in this situation. The Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus ACC opponents and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Lay the points.

7* NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas State +5
The Key: Kentucky won two of three in the SEC tournament, nearly upsetting Florida in the championship game, and we are hearing a lot of talk about how it should have been a higher seed. We can't forget that Kentucky had lost three of four heading into the SEC tourney with two of the losses to South Carolina and Arkansas. I'm not convinced it is a championship contender all of the sudden. Coach Calipari's best teams have all had one thing in common - great guard play. This Kentucky team is as talented as anybody but has struggled at times because its guard play has been average. Kentucky averages only 11 assists per game, which means it is getting most of its points off one-on-one play. Kansas State, which averages 15 assists per game, has dominated teams with low assist numbers. In fact, K-State is 11-2 ATS in games played 15 games or more into the season versus teams averaging 12 assists per game or less over the last 3 seasons. It has won these games by an average score of 71.8 to 58.1. K-State enters on a 3-game losing streak, but that's not a good enough reason to lay off. Teams headed up by coach Weber are 12-3 ATS when they check in with 3 or more consecutive losses. They have won these games by an average score of 68.4 to 63.1. Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 non-conference games. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavericks -7.5
The Key: Off a loss to Minnesota and with the Nets, Thunder and Clippers on deck, this is a game a Dallas team that is fighting to hang on to a playoff spot has to have. It's also a game it wants badly. The Mavs have lost each of the season's first three meetings so it will be lacking no effort and focus here. The Mavs have been an unbelievable investment in bounce-back spots. They are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss and 43-16 ATS in their last 59 games following an ATS loss. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -4
The Key: North Carolina has superior talent and it will be ready to flex its muscles here after losing its last two games. The Tar Heels have been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots at 52-24-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a loss. It was the defensive side of the ball that helped the Heels rattle off 12 consecutive wins from late January to early March, but that side of the ball has let them down in their last two games. They gave up 93 to Duke and 80 to Pitt, but they are 14-5 ATS under Roy Williams after allowing 80 points or more in 2 straight games. They have won these contests by an average score of 85.9 to 70.4. Providence has frequently come up short away from home against stiff competition under Ed Cooley. In fact, it is 9-18 ATS in games played away from home versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4.0 ppg or more under his watch. The Friars have lost these games by an average score of 72.9 to 62.3. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament Annihilator on Oklahoma State -2
The Key: Oklahoma State has been a different team since Marcus Smart returned from suspension. It has gone 5-2 since the return with both losses coming in OT to very good Iowa State and Kansas teams. The Cowboys experienced a quick exit at the hands Oregon in last year's NCAA Tournament so this experienced team will be extremely focused. The Cowboys will also be out for a little payback after suffering a 1-point loss to Gonzaga last season. The Bulldogs closed the season strong with 5 straight wins with the last two coming by double-digits against St. Mary's and BYU. However, they are 0-8 ATS in games played away from home after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. They are also 5-16 ATS in games played away from home after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Often overvalued in the NCAA Tournament because of its good record, Gonzaga is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 NCAA Tournament games. The Bulldogs are also only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. When Oklahoma State is favored, it's been for good reason. The Cowboys are 61-36 ATS when laying points under coach Travis Ford. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Manhattan +16.5
The Key: The value clearly lies with Manhattan here. The reigning champs have been rolling with 5 straight covers on 5 straight double-digit victories to gain tons of public support. Louisville defeated Manhattan by 28 points last season as a 17-point favorite and is laying less than that here? The books clearly want the money on the Cardinals. Manhattan had 27 turnovers when these teams met last season, but I don't see that happening again. This experienced Manhattan squad has taken care of the rock this season and has averaged just 12.85 turnovers over its last 7 games. Coach Steve Masiello has gotten the Jaspers to play their best ball of the season late in the season. His team is now 8-0 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. The Jaspers are also 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS in games played away from home after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

7* Round of 64 Game of the Year on Delaware +14.5
The Key: Michigan State is being overvalued here. The Spartans are finally at full strength, and they are now on a 5-0 ATS run after dominating the Big Ten tournament. The public is falling in love with Tom Izzo's club as a result and odds makers are looking to take advantage. Consider that Michigan State is just 1-8 ATS under coach Izzo as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points. It has won these games by only 8.4 points on average. Delaware played Villanova to a 4-point game on the road, and it played Ohio State to a 12-point game on the road. It is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog. The Blue Hens failed to cover the spread in the CAA tournament championship game as they got a scare from William & Mary. However, they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

6* NCAA Tournament Annihilator on Oregon -5
The Key: BYU took Oregon to overtime on the road earlier this season. However, BYU got 15 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 blocks from Kyle Collinsworth in that game. The Cougars won't have their most versatile player this time around after Collinsworth suffered an ACL injury against Gonzaga in the WCC tournament championship game. Losing him really hurts a BYU squad that isn't very deep. Oregon has superior depth, and I expect it to be able to use that to its advantage. BYU is 0-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pickem over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 80.8 to 67.8. Oregon is 6-0 ATS in all post-season tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning these by an average score of 83.5 to 75.3. It also worth noting that BYU is 1-9 ATS in all tournament games played away from home over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 3-12 ATS under coach Dave Rose in games played away from home when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pelicans +2
The Key: This is a terrible situation for Toronto. The Raptors are playing their second road game in as many nights and were pushed to overtime last night so fatigue will definitely be an issue. They are on a 0-5 run in the second game of a back-to-back and have lost these games by 4.4 points on average. New Orleans has had the benefit of two days' rest and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when playing on two days' rest. You want to fade teams like Toronto that allow 92.0-98.0 ppg when they're matched up with a team that gives up 102.0 ppg or more if they have combined with their opponents to score 215 points or more in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 21-4 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the Pelicans.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* (ESPN2) on Utah -1
The Key: Utah's bubble burst on selection Sunday, but the Utes already saw it coming after their ugly 71-39 loss to Arizona. Still, this team is excited about playing postseason basketball, and it will be hungry here as it looks to erase the memory of its most recent defeat. This season has turned out to be a big disappointment for Saint Mary's following back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths. Respect is given to its 15-3 home record, but most of those wins came against lesser competition. The Gaels weren't able to beat BYU or Gonzaga this season, going 0-5 against the two top teams in the league. That's a sign Saint Mary's is down, and the eye test supports that. Utah passes by eye test. While its road record isn't good, it was very competitive on the road against good teams and broke through down the stretch with a good win at Cal. The Gaels are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Utes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. WCC opponents. Take Utah.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Cavaliers +10
The Key: No Kyrie Irving for Cleveland tonight, and we are getting a good number as a result. Irving is expected to miss at least two weeks, but I don't see Cleveland packing it in. The Cavs are still in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the East. Plus, they always seem to get up for Miami. The Heat have won nine straight in the series, but five of the last six meetings have been decided by seven points or less. Four of these were decided by four points or fewer. Miami is off a big win over Houston but is 9-23-2 ATS in its last 34 games following a cover. The Heat are also a soft 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games versus a team with a losing record. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nuggets +4.5
The Key: The Clippers play uptempo basketball. And, even though they ran away with a 22-point win over Cleveland last night, the starters still logged big minutes. Now, L.A. travels to Denver's high altitude on no rest, and I expect fatigue to be an issue. The Nuggets have had a day off and will be the fresher side. Plus, they have had no problem beating the Clippers at home where they have won 12 of 14, including three in a row. One of the two losses came by only four points so Denver is on a 13-1 ATS run in the series in terms of the 4.5-point spread posted for this game. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 11-1 ATS in home games the last two seasons versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 6.0 points per game or more. They have won these games by an average score of 103.8 to 98.0. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nets -4
The Key: We'll fade the Suns in what is a rough situation. They are playing the second game of a road back-to-back as well as a third road game in four days. The Nets will be the fresher side as they have had a day of rest since their last game, and they had two days of rest prior to that one. To go along with fresh legs, Brooklyn will be motivated. It lost its last game in Washington but is on a 5-0 ATS run following defeat with an average winning margin of 12.4 points. All five wins came by at least six points. The Nets are also on a 7-0 ATS run at home with a 12.3-point average margin of victory in these games. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors -1.5
The Key: After blowing a 16-point lead in Friday's loss to the Cavaliers, the Warriors held a team meeting. "You could tell people care. The fact that a lot of guys talked and voiced their commitment to what we're trying to do is good," said Stephen Curry about the meeting. I expect maximum effort here following Friday's collapse against a team the Warriors are chasing. Golden State hasn't lost three in a row since November. It has lost consecutive games four times since then and has managed to win the game directly following each time by an average of 9.5 points. Coincidentally, it defeated Portland by 15 the last time it was trying to avoid a three-game slide. The Warriors also catch Portland at a good time. The Trail Blazers are struggling and are expected to be without LaMarcus Aldridge. Plus, the first home game back after a lengthy road trip is often a letdown spot, and that's been the case for Portland, which is 0-8 ATS under coach Stotts in home games after playing 4 consecutive road games. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten Championship *CA$H COW* on Michigan State -2.5
The Key: Michigan State is on a mission to win the Big Ten tournament championship after finishing the regular season tied for second place. The Spartans believe they would have won the league had they not been bitten by the injury bug. They were missing key players in both regular-season losses to Michigan. Now that they

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on Hawks -6
The Key: This is a bad situation for the Nuggets, who are playing their second road game in as many nights and their fifth road game in seven days. To make matters worse, this is a major sandwich game after a huge win over Miami and with the Clippers in town Monday. Atlanta will be the far fresher side as it has had a day of rest and is playing for just the second time in five days. The Hawks are also extremely motivated as they look to hold onto the eighth and final playoff spot. Denver has been a dead fade in the second game of back-to-backs, going just 2-10 ATS in its last 12. You also want to fade underdogs 42 games or more into the season that have gone over the total in two consecutive games or more in a matchup between teams that give up 102.0 ppg or more. Doing so has produced a 61-26 ATS mark since 1996, including an 11-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Teams fitting this system have lost by 10.8 points on average, and I'm expecting a double-digit win from the Hawks.

7* Conference Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on UConn +9
The Key: Connecticut was brutally embarrassed 81-48 at Louisville in its regular season finale, and you can bet your last buck it hasn't forgotten. While the public will be all over Louisville, history suggests that's the wrong move. You want to back neutral court underdogs that are seeking revenge for a defeat in which they were held to less than 60 points if the team they are facing checks in off a cover as a favorite of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 91-53 ATS mark since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 9.3 points on average but have lost by an average of just 6.7 points. Take the points.

6* SEC Tourney *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +7.5
The Key: Tennessee is on the bubble, and though it looks like it's on the right side of the bubble, it knows it can leave no chance of missing the Dance by defeating Florida. The Vols have the horses to do just that. Tennessee has won three straight in the series before losing both regular-season meetings. It played the Gators to a nine-point game in the most recent meeting, and it really should have been closer than that. The Volunteers held Florida to just 36.2% from the field while shooting 45.8% themselves. The difference was the free throw line where Tennessee was just 9 of 17. Tennessee averages 16 makes on 23 free throw attempts per game so the performance was an aberration. The Vols are 30-14 ATS since 1997 when seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent. They haven't won these games on average but have lost them by only 1.6 points. Take the points.

7* Mountain West Tournament Game of the Year on UNLV +4.5
The Key: In all likelihood, UNLV needs to win this tournament to reach the Big Dance for a fifth straight year. That's a huge motivator. San Diego State is in the Dance, is off a 73-39 laugher over Utah State and defeated UNLV on this floor last week by nine points so it won't bring the level of focus to this contest that the Runnin' Rebels will bring. Plus, UNLV led that contest with just over three minutes remaining so the final score is misleading. The Rebels have had a ton of success in this building against SDSU lately, winning two of the last three meetings. They have won or lost by just two points in three of the last four meetings. UNLV will have the crowd behind it, which is a huge factor in close games. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points 15 games or more into the schedule in a matchup of teams averaging 67.0-74.0 ppg if they have given up 50 points or less in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 23-6 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Colorado +11.5
The Key: Arizona's 71-39 laugher over Utah sets it up for a letdown here, especially since it defeated Colorado by 27 in the most recent meeting. It will be very hard for the Wildcats to bring the same focus and energy to this game that they brought to yesterday's game. Colorado was brutally embarrassed at home by the Wildcats in the aforementioned game so it will be out for payback. You want to fade favorites of 10 points or more that have won eight of more of their last 10 games in the semi-final round of any tournament. Doing so has produced a 28-7 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -4.5
The Key: This incredibly talented Kentucky team isn't at all happy with the way the regular season concluded. It lost three of its last four, and the only game it should have lost during this stretch was the last one to Florida. It's important for the Wildcats to gain some momentum with a good showing in this tournament, and I expect Coach Cal to have them ready to go. Kentucky lost at LSU earlier this season and needed OT to beat the Tigers at home Feb. 22 so it should be very focused on the task at hand. LSU took care of Alabama yesterday, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a SU win and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Plus, Kentucky is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the six wins coming by an average of 17.2 points. Lay the number.

6* Pac-12 Tourney *POWERHOUSE* on UCLA -1
The Key: I'll lay the point with UCLA as I'm confident the Bruins will show up here. They did not show up at Washington State in their regular-season finale and lost 73-55 as a 10.5-point favorite. They also lost at home in OT to Oregon in the most recent matchup so they will be after some payback. The Bruins lost to Oregon in the championship game of last season's Pac-12 tournament and then were crushed by Minnesota in the NCAA tournament so they would like to enter the dance with some momentum this time around. The Bruins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss. And, you want to back teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss of 15 points or more if they have a .600 to .800 win percentage and are playing a team that have a winning record. Doing so has produced a 78-38 ATS mark since 1997. Take UCLA.

6* Big Ten Tourney *CA$H COW* on Purdue +9
The Key: The Boilermakers are not happy with the way they finished the regular season. After giving Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin all they wanted and more, they lost their regular-season finale to Northwestern and wound up all alone in the Big Ten basement. You can bet that loss will have Purdue mighty motivated heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State is off a big win over Michigan State. Plus, it defeated Purdue twice this season by nine on the road and by 18 at home so it will already be looking ahead to the next round. Purdue is 8-1 ATS under coach Painter in games played away from home when seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more. The Boilermakers have lost by only 0.7 points on average in this spot. You want to fade neutral court teams that have gone under the total by 42 total points or more in their last seven games if they have a winning record and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 51-15 ATS mark since 1997. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

6* Big East Tourney *CA$H COW* on Seton Hall -2
The Key: Seton Hall lost both regular-season meetings with Butler, including an embarrassing 17-point loss Saturday. The Pirates didn't play well in either matchup, and Butler couldn't miss Saturday, going 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. The Pirates are the more talented side, and I expect them to advance here with the recent beating it received serving as motivation. Seton Hall was very close to having a pretty special season. It suffered five one-point losses to Oklahoma, Marquette, St. John's (twice) and Creighton. Four of these losses were in road or neutral court venues. How a team fares on the road paints a much clearer picture of what kind of a team they are. The Pirates are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They are also 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home following a double-digit loss to a conference foe. Butler is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons following two consecutive covers as a favorite. Lay the points.

7* ACC Tournament Game of the Year on Boston College +1.5
The Key: Georgia Tech was able to follow up its win over Syracuse with a win over lowly Virginia Tech. However, the Yellow Jackets are 9-21 ATS under Brian Gregory following one or more consecutive wins. They are also 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following an ATS win. Boston College dropped its final two regular-season games SU and ATS, but the Eagles are on a 70-38 ATS run in games played away from home after a game where they failed to cover the number. Also, teams headed up by Steve Donahue are 29-11 ATS in road/neutral court games following two or more consecutive losses. Boston College lost both regular-season meetings with Georgia Tech this season, but it will enter this contest with complete confidence as the same five starters that defeated the Yellow Jackets twice last season will take the floor tonight. You want to back underdogs seeking revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent if they are also off a road loss of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 130-77 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lastly, the underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take B.C.

6* MWC Tourney *CA$H COW* on Colorado State +3
The Key: Utah State hasn't played in a week, and I believe that's a bad thing in this case as it squashes some of the momentum gained from back-to-back wins. The Rams lost both regular-season meetings by 7 on the road and by 9 at home, but these easily could have been closer. They shot just 36.2% and 29.8% from the field in the two games. In the first meeting that they lost by 7, they were just 11 of 20 from the foul line. Colorado State averages 20 makes on 28 free throw attempts per game so it could have taken the Aggies right down to the wire had it been closer to its season average. The Rams were much better from the foul line in the second meeting (25 of 28) but couldn't throw it in the ocean. History suggests the third time will be the charm for Colorado State as teams headed up by Larry Eustachy are 34-16 ATS since 1997 when playing with double revenge. Take the points.

6* Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on Texas-San Antonio +6.5
The Key: East Carolina is getting a little too much respect from odds makers here as these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Pirates won the lone regular season meeting by 10 points, but it was played at home and it was plus-14 points from the free throw line. They won't get as many call in this neutral floor battle. Plus, they went to the line nine more times than their season average in that game and knocked them down at a 16.5% higher clip than their season average. Texas-San Antonio made three fewer trips to the charity stripe than its season average and shot them 9.2% worse than they have this season. I don't see nearly as large of a free throw discrepancy in this one, which gives the roadrunners an excellent opportunity to cover this number. You want to fade neutral court teams like ECU that have gone under the total by 42 total points or more in their last seven games if they have a winning record and are playing a losing team. That's because doing so has produced a 50-15 ATS mark since 1997. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder -4
The Key: I expect Oklahoma City to cover this number behind a strong defensive performance. The Thunder check in off back-to-back defeats on the road where they gave up 128 points and 114 points, respectively. They allowed an average of 49.7% shooting in the two losses, which is unacceptable for a team that is holding foes to 43.5% shooting on the season. After losing to the lowly Lakers in their last game, we can expect maximum effort tonight. Oklahoma City is 45-26 ATS after two or more consecutive losses and 26-11 ATS off an upset loss on the road under coach Brooks. The Rockets are rolling. They've won five in a row with three of the wins against Miami, Indiana and Portland, but these three were at home. The road hasn't been as kind versus good teams. Recently, they have an eight-point loss in LA against the Clippers and also lost on the road to the Clippers by 19 earlier in the season. They have a 117-86 loss in Oklahoma City as well as a 114-81 loss in Indiana this season. They are just 2-4 this season in their road games versus teams (Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, Pacers) I consider to be elite. Both wins came against the Spurs, and the four losses came by an average of 22.8 points. The Thunder have had the Rockets number, winning eight of 11 meetings the last two seasons, including both this season, and their defense on James Harden has been a big reason why. They know Harden's game inside and out from his time spent in Oklahoma City, and they have held him to just 39.6% shooting in those contests. The Thunder are 4-1 at home against the Rockets during their 8-3 series run with the four wins coming by an average of 21.3 points. You want to back teams off an upset loss in a game in which they were a double-digit favorite if they carry a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are matched up against a team that also fits in that range. Doing so has produced a 32-10 ATS mark since 1996, including 6-1 ATS the last five seasons. Lay the points.

6* Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on South Carolina State +7.5
The Key: South Carolina State just lost Thursday at Savannah State by 19 points. It also lost the season's first meeting at home by 10 points. Yet, the Bulldogs are catching less than either of those margins. Clearly, odds makers want the money on Savannah State. We won't oblige them. Because the Tigers just handled SC State so easily, their tendency will be to look ahead to the next round. The Bulldogs will bring extra energy and desire to this contest knowing they must in order to upset a team they have lost to twice this season. Savannah State has been a terrible investment, going just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 lined games. The Bulldogs are a strong 4-1-1 ATS in their last six lines neutral site battles. You want to fade neutral court favorites or pickems that average 63.0 ppg or less if they combined with their opponent for 125 points or less last game and are matched up with a team that allows 67.0-74.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 62-30 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Pacers -1.5
The Key: This is the most-motivated spot of the season for the Pacers, who have dropped three in a row and were brutally embarrassed by Charlotte and Houston in their last two games. An 81-73 Feb. 12 home loss to Dallas adds fuel to this fire. Prior to that loss, Indiana had defeated Dallas by scores of 98-87, 103-83 and 103-78. The first and last in this set came in Dallas. It is also worth noting that Indiana has held the Mavs to 38.6 percent shooting or worse in each of the last three meetings. After allowing its last two opponents to shoot better than 50.0 percent from the field, Indiana will be dialed in at the defensive end tonight. Dallas has been a poor investment in the home underdog role. In fact, it is 9-23 ATS when catching points at home under coach Carlisle, including 0-5 SU and ATS this season. The Mavs are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Dallas. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Ohio State -2.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses on the road and further fueled by a four-point loss at Michigan State in the first meeting, Ohio State will take care of business on Senior Day. You want to back home favorites or pickems off two or more consecutive upset losses on the road as doing so has produced an 80-39 ATS mark since 1997. If the teams in this set returned at least four starters, like Ohio State, this system tightens up to 29-7 ATS. Revenge has been a solid angle to play on Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 22-12 ATS under coach Matta when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. They have won by an average of score of 66.5 to 61.1 in these contests. It is also extremely important to note that Michigan State is just 8-18 ATS under Izzo as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less or pickem and has lost these contests by an average score of 66.8 to 61.9. Lay the number.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Cal -4
The Key: Cal has dropped three straight and is likely on the wrong side of the bubble at this moment despite being one of the two teams to beat Arizona. This is really a must-win game for the Golden Bears, and I expect them to come through. Cal is on a 15-5 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 72.9 to 60.6 in this spot. The Golden Bears are also 9-2 ATS in home games under coach Montgomery after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. They have busted out to win by an average score of 74.4 to 60.4 in this spot. Colorado is off a big upset win at Stanford, but it is just 2-5 in true road games in conference play this season with the other win coming at lowly USC. The five losses have all come by at least 11 points. The Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS the last two seasons in road games occurring 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams carrying a win percentage of 60-80%. They have lost to these teams by an average of 12.0 points. Lay the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +5.5
The Key: Kansas has quietly struggled on the road where it is 0-3 ATS in its last three. It has lost three of its last five road games straight up and was fortunate to come away with a one-point victory at Texas Tech. West Virginia has been tough at home where it is 5-1 in its last six. It has won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in 13 of 15 home games this season. The Mountaineers have good home wins against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Kansas State. WVU does an excellent job of taking care of the basketball. It has committed 10 turnovers or fewer in eight of its last 10 games while never committing more than 14 during this stretch. Kansas doesn't force a lot of turnovers. In fact, it hasn't forced more than 13 in its last five games and has forced more than 14 just once in its last 12 games. It will be mighty tough for Kansas to cover this number on the road against a solid team like WVU without forcing a lot of turnovers. The Jayhawks are 0-7 ATS the last two seasons in road games after four straight games of forcing 14 or less turnovers. They have won in this spot but only by 0.2 points on average. The Mountaineers are off a double-digit loss at Oklahoma, but teams headed up by Huggins are 26-13 ATS following a road loss of 10 points or more since 1997. Take the points.

7* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on Mavericks -2.5
The Key: I love the Mavs at home tonight in what I believe is their most motivated spot of the season. Dallas has lost three in a row for the first time this season. Plus, it was embarrassed 127-111 by Portland on this floor Jan. 18. Hungry to get back in the win column and to get revenge, I expect Dallas to roll. The Trail Blazers have won six of seven, but none of those opponents entered with a winning record. They are just 1-8 in their last nine games versus teams that have a winning record. They've also dropped six of nine on the road. The Mavs have been terrific in bounce-back spots, going 41-15 ATS in their last 56 games following an ATS loss. They are also 28-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and 10-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. Portland checks in off a 102-78 home win over Atlanta but is 8-19 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. You want to back home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off two or more consecutive road losses if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 64-32 ATS mark since 1996. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Central Florida -2
The Key: Houston has won four in a row with an 88-84 victory over Central Florida during this stretch. It is also on a 6-0-1 ATS run. Yet, it is catching points against a team that has lost 13 of 15? Odds makers clearly aren't sold on Houston on the road where it 1-6 in its last seven and 2-8 in its last 10. I'm not either. Plus, the Knights will be motivated by revenge and will bring a little extra on senior night. You want to back teams like UCF that have failed to cover in three consecutive games or more when they're up against an opponent that has covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 136-81 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, Houston is just 3-11 ATS under coach James Dickey in road games when it checks in with wins in four or five of its last six games. It has lost by an average score of 76.9 to 63.8 in these contests. UCF has played Houston very tough lately and is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as a result. Also, the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on CS Sacramento +1.5
The Key: Montana has won four straight, but all four came at home. The Grizzlies haven't been on the road since Feb. 15, and they are 0-2 in their last two road games and 5-8 on the road this season. Montana is off a big win over in-state rival Montana State and has had just two days to prepare for this contest. CS Sacramento, on the other hand, has had four days to gear up. The Hornets have been one tough cookie at home where they are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven. They are 6-0 ATS this season as a home dog of 6.0 points of less or pickem, winning these games by an average score of 79.0 to 68.3. Montana won the first meeting by 12, but the Hornets are 8-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss. Montana is only 3-11 ATS as favorite this season. Take CS Sacramento.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Richmond +6
The Key: Fueled by back-to-back upset losses on the road and an 11-point defeat at VCU last month, Richmond will give the Rams all they want and more. The Spiders have been outstanding at home where they are 7-1 in their last eight and 10-2 in their last 12. One of these two defeats came by a single point so they are on an 11-1 ATS run at home based on tonight's line. VCU has been far from a juggernaut on the road where it is 1-3 in its last four and 3-5 in its last eight. It has especially struggled on the road versus good defensive teams like Richmond that hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse. It is just 3-13 ATS versus such teams the last two seasons. It is also worth noting that the Rams are 3-12 ATS the last two seasons in road games after two or more consecutive wins. The home team has held a significant advantage in this series. It is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.7 points. It is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings with the lone loss coming by a single point, which means we have an 8-0 ATS run in play based on tonight's line. Take the points.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Auburn +4.5
The Key: Tennessee is off a 76-38 laugher over Vandy. However, things haven't gone as well for the Vols on the road where they are 0-4 ATS in their last four. It's the last home game of the season for Auburn, which means we can expect the Tigers to leave it all on the floor. They have lost six straight to Tennessee so they will be lacking no motivation. Auburn has performed well at home where it is 11-4 in its last 15. The home team has been dominant in this series, going 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Auburn was crushed at Alabama last time out and will be even more focused here as a result. Consider that the Tigers are on a 24-11 ATS run after trailing in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half. Tennessee is just 6-15 ATS under coach Martin after holding their previous opponent to 25 points or less in the first half. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Magic +7
The Key: This is a bad spot for Houston. The Rockets are off a huge win over the Heat last night and have games against Indiana, Portland and Oklahoma City on deck. So not only is this a letdown spot, it's a look-ahead spot for the Rockets. Orlando has quietly been outstanding at home where it is 8-2 in its last 10 with wins over Oklahoma City and Indiana. Neither of the losses came by more than five points, which means we have a perfect 10-0 trend in our favor. It is also worth noting that the Rockets are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings overall and 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Orlando. Plus, the Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest. The Magic have had the last two days off so they will be the fresher side. We'll take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Cavaliers +7.5
The Key: Cleveland is catching the Spurs at the right time. San Antonio is off a big win over division rival Dallas, and it has a big showdown with Miami Thursday. The Spurs will want to make sure they have plenty left in the tank for Thursday as they seek revenge for their Finals loss so I expect them to go through the motions here. Cleveland will also be the fresher side as it has had the last two days off while San Antonio has had just a day off. The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days' rest. The Cavs are also 10-4 ATS this season in the home underdog role. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Central Michigan +7.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Toledo as it hits the road following Saturday's huge overtime revenge win over Western Michigan. The Rockets also have a revenge game on deck against Eastern Michigan so the tendency will be to look ahead, especially since they defeated the Chippewas by 15 in the first meeting. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a cover and 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points.

6* ACC Annihilator on NC State +10.5
The Key: NC State was upset at home by Miami by 15 points Saturday. However, that game was played in the wake of a crushing overtime loss to North Carolina. The Wolfpack will be hungry here as they look to bounce back from Saturday's ugly loss and get revenge for a home loss to Pitt earlier this season. The Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS under Mark Gottfried in road games following a home loss of 10 points or more. They have won these six contests by an average score of 71.7 to 65.5. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Panthers have been a poor investment this season at home where they are 3-10 ATS in lined games and 1-7 ATS after two or more consecutive wins. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a losing road record. You want to back road underdogs of 10.0 to 19.5 points off an upset loss of 15 points or more at home as doing so has produced a 73-37 ATS mark since 1997. In addition, double-digit underdogs playing their second game in three days that are off an upset loss are 136-84 ATS since 1997. You also back to back road underdogs of 10 or more points that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 113-66 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nets -3
The Key: This is a tough situation for Chicago, which is playing its second game in as many days, third in four days and fifth in seven days. Brooklyn, on the other hand, got a much needed day off yesterday and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest. I'm also confident the Nets will want this game just a little bit more. They lost a tough seven-game series to the Bulls in last year's playoffs and have been unable to get revenge in two chances this season, losing by 17 and 16, respectively. The 17-point loss came at home on Christmas day, but the Nets have been a far different home team since then. They are 11-2 in their last 13 home games, including 4-0 in their last four, with wins over Golden State, Miami, Dallas and San Antonio during this stretch. Brooklyn can also get back to .500 for the first time since Nov. 5 with a win so the prospect of reaching that mark provides added incentive. Lay the points.

7* Pac-12 Powerhouse of the Week on UCLA -12.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats as well as a loss at Oregon State in the first meeting, UCLA will show no mercy in its final home game of the regular season. When the Bruins have been asked to lay double-digits, it's been for good reason. They are 8-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 10 points or more, winning these games by an average score of 93.7 to 68.6. Oregon State checks in off a double-digit win at USC, and that bodes extremely well for us. The Beavers are on a 1-10 ATS slide in games following a double-digits road win. UCLA is 9-0 in its last nine home games versus the Beavers, winning these contests by an average of 19.0 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA Sunday Night *CA$H COW* on Mavs +5.5
The Key: Dallas will be the hungrier team this evening as it looks to bring a seven-game losing streak to the Spurs to an end. The Mavs have been a tremendous investment on the road where they are 40-16 ATS in their last 56. They've especially been valuable on the road against explosive offensive teams like the Spurs that average 103.0 ppg or more. The Mavs are 42-17 ATS on the road against such teams under coach Carlisle, including 9-1 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that they are 70-39 ATS under Carlisle as a road underdog of six points or less. It is also significant that the Mavs are off a SU and ATS loss to the Bulls since they are 40-15 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS defeat. The Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

7* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo -5.5
The Key: Toledo holds all the motivational advantages in this game. The Rockets need a win to pull even with Western Michigan in the MAC West. They have lost the last three meetings in the series, including an 11-point loss in this season's first meeting. They are also off an upset loss at Northern Illinois. Four starters return from last year's team which was swept by the Broncos, and they aren't about to get swept again. The Rockets are 13-0 at home where they have won by an average of 12.7 points. Teams headed up by coach Kowalczyk are 17-5 ATS following an upset loss and 14-4 ATS after failing to cover in three or more consecutive games. Western Michigan is 7-17 ATS under coach Hawkins in road games off a road win. The Broncos are also 0-7 ATS in road games the last three seasons after a combined score of 155 points or more in their previous game. They have lost by an average of 15.0 points in this situation. Lay the points.

6* MVC *CA$H COW* on Southern Illinois -3
The Key: Off an ugly loss at Northern Iowa and out for revenge for four consecutive double-digit losses to Illinois State, Southern Illinois will show up in a big way in its last game of the regular season. The Salukis are an impressive 12-1 ATS the last two seasons when seeking same-season revenge. Plus, Illinois State has had all kinds of problems on the road. The Redbirds are 0-6 ATS this season in road games against teams that have a losing record, losing to these teams by 8.0 points on average. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last five road games versus teams that have a winning home record. Illinois State is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games against teams carrying a win percentage of 20-40% and has lost to these teams by 9.2 points on average. The Salukis are 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team that has a winning record. Lastly, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Lay the points.

6* Situational Slam Dunk on Valparaiso -1.5
The Key: This is a bad spot for Cleveland State, which is playing on the road for the first time since Feb. 8. To make matters worse, the Vikings don't have anything to play for as Tuesday's overtime win against Youngstown State locked up the No. 2 seed for the conference tournament. It's the last home game of the season for Valpo, and teams tend to show up when that is the case. This is also a revenge spot for the Crusaders, who were crushed by 19 in the first meeting. Home court has been huge in this series with the home team going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits to Valparaiso, losing these games by 10.8 points on average. Lay the number.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dartmouth +5
The Key: Columbia is off a big win over Yale and has a showdown at Harvard tomorrow so I expect it to get caught looking ahead in this sandwich game, especially since it posted a 10-point win over Dartmouth Feb. 15. The Big Green have lost six in a row so they will want this game like blood. This is also their first home game since Feb. 8, and they are a respectable 7-6 at home. Columbia is just 3-7 on the road. The Lions are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games occurring 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams carrying a win percentage of 20-40%. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 70.7 to 61.2. Columbia is also 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6.0 points under coach Kyle Smith, losing these games by an average score of 69.8 to 62.0. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Line Mistake of the Month on Texas-San Antonio +2.5
The Key: Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. North Texas has been favored five times this season and is 0-5 ATS in those games. Looking back further, the Mean Green are on a 3-17 ATS slide as a road favorite of 6.0 points or pickem. They have won three in a row and covered the spread in their last two. However, they are 0-7 ATS when checking in with three wins in four games under coach Benford and have lost these games by an average score of 78.0 to 61.6. They are also 0-7 ATS in road games under Benford when checking in with two covers in their last three games. They have lost these seven contests by an average score of 84.9 to 66.0. Texas-San Antonio is back home following back-to-back road games, and home has treated the Roadrunners well. They are 5-2 in their last seven home games. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 Powerhouse on Arizona State -1.5
The Key: Off back-to-back losses on the road where the Sun Devils were held to 52 and 63 points respectively, they will be happy to take the floor at home where they are 14-1 on the season and averaging 78.7 ppg. Arizona State is 31-16 ATS off two consecutive losses in conference play under coach Sendek. It is also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons after being held to 65 points or less in two straight games and has won by an average score of 78.0 to 70.7 in this spot. There is also a revenge angle in play as Stanford won the season's first meeting. Stanford has also won its last two visits to Tempe so the Sun Devils will be lacking no motivation here. Lay the number.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Purdue +5.5
The Key: Michigan is primed for a letdown as it hits the road following a big win over rival Michigan State. The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 6-15 ATS in road games off a win against a conference foe over the last three seasons. It is also worth noting that Michigan is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite or pickem under coach Beilein. Purdue is coming off a 19-point loss at Nebraska, but it is 28-10 ATS off a loss of 10 points or more to a conference foe under coach Painter and has won these games by an average score of 68.2 to 64.8. Purdue is 12-3 at home this season, and it has won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in eight straight home games versus Michigan. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: The Trail Blazers have lost six of their last eight on the road, and they are in serious danger of losing another road game here. They check in off an 11-point win over Minnesota but are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points and 7-19 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a win by 10 points or more. The Nuggets have struggled without Ty Lawson. While there's a chance he could return tonight, I like them in this spot regardless. They will be highly motivated following back-to-back poor performances. They'll be further motivated by losses in the first two meetings with Portland. One of those was an embarrassing 113-98 loss in Denver that ended a nine-game home winning streak in the series. The Nuggets are 24-3 in their last 27 home games against the Blazers. The Nuggets are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Also, the underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Utah State +12
The Key: Expect a letdown from New Mexico following a big 58-44 win over San Diego State. You want to fade home favorites of 10-19.5 points that are off a home win against a conference opponent when they are matched up against a foe that's off an upset loss at home. Doing so has produced a 107-63 ATS mark since 1997. New Mexico won the first meeting 78-65. However, double-digit road underdogs that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent are 110-66 ATS the last five seasons, provided they carry a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. It's also worth noting that double-digit road dogs off an upset loss in conference play are 45-20 ATS the last five seasons when matched up against an opponent off a double-digit home win. It's been a down year for Utah State, but it's still shown flashes, like when it took San Diego State to OT. In addition, the Aggies have lost just three of 10 games played away from home this season by more than 11 points. Utah State missed a really good opportunity last game to get coach Stew Morrill his 600th career win. They'll lay it all on the line in hopes of doing so here. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Wake Forest +2.5
The Key: Wake Forest has lost seven in a row SU and ATS, but in its defense four of the last five were on the road. This is the first of three straight at home, where the Demon Deacons are 12-3 on the season, and I expect them to leave it all on the floor in an attempt to end a lengthy skid and finish the season on a high note. Wake's last loss was a brutal 105-72 defeat to red-hot North Carolina. However, the Demon Deacons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss of more than 20 points. They are also 9-2 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games under coach Bzdelik. Clemson checks in off back-to-back wins and covers, but it is on a 13-26 ATS slide off two straight wins against conference foes and 33-58 ATS slide after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. Clemson has had a rough go of it at Wake Forest, where the Demon Deacons are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings. When the line is +3 to -3 in a game that takes place 15 games or more into the schedule, you want to back teams like Wake Forest that average 67-74 ppg if they are off two straight double-digit losses and are up against a team that allows 63 ppg or less. Doing so has produced a 48-18 ATS mark since 1997, including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +2.5
The Key: With David Lee out due to an illness and Andrew Bogut expected to miss again with a shoulder injury, the Pistons will have a significant edge on the interior this evening. I expect Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond to give the Warriors big problems in the paint tonight. The Warriors were last in action Saturday, earning a home win and cover against Brooklyn. However, they are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. The win over Brooklyn was their second straight at home, significant because the Warriors are just 4-14 ATS under Mark Jackson following two or more consecutive home wins. They have lost by an average score of 103.6 to 98.5 in this spot. The Pistons are off a double-digit loss to Dallas, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. They're also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lastly, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on NC-Greensboro -1.5
The Key: Chattanooga has lost its mojo. It is 2-4 since winning 10 straight from Dec. 29 to Jan. 25, including 0-3 on the road. While a 77-61 home loss to Georgia Southern last game should have the Mocs motivated, I believe NC-Greensboro will want this game just a little bit more. This is the final home game for the Spartans. With challenging games at Davidson and Wofford to conclude the season, the Spartans will go after this one with all they've got in hopes of ending a two-game losing streak. Greensboro lost 77-67 at Chattanooga in the first meeting, and that loss only adds fuel to the fire. Prior to that loss, Greensboro had won five straight in the series by an average of 10.0 points so they won't be lacking any confidence today. You want to fade road teams that suffered an ATS loss of 18 points or more in their previous game if they carry a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 40-49%. Doing so has produced a 33-9 ATS mark since 1997. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons. Lay the number.

6* NCAAB Saturday Night *CA$H COW* on NC-Wilmington +3
The Key: I was on College of Charleston -2.5 Wednesday as my CAA Game of the Year, and the Cougars came through with an 87-54 win over William & Mary. That big win sets them up for a letdown here. C of C is a soft 9-22 ATS the last three seasons following a conference win. It is also on a 7-18 ATS slide following a home win of 20 points or more. We also can't ignore C of Cs struggles on the road where it has lost four straight. NC-Wilmington hasn't played since Monday when it was kicked at William & Mary. The Seahawks also lost the season's first meeting at C of C by five points so they will be after some revenge. Buzz Peterson has had no problem motivating his teams following a bad loss. In fact, teams he's headed up are 9-1 ATS all-time in home games following a loss of 20 points or more in conference play. They have won these games by an average score of 70.6 to 65.9. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Niagara +4
The Key: This is a tough situation for Quinnipiac. The Bobcats are playing a second road game in three days, one of the toughest scheduling spots in college basketball. Off a big win at Canisius, they are in a letdown spot, especially since they handled Niagara by 14 last month. They'll have a very difficult time getting up for this game the way they got up for Thursday's game. Niagara has lost seven in a row, but it's the last home game of the season for the Purple Eagles, which means we can expect them to go all out. The seniors always come with a little extra on Senior Day. Purple Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. Niagara is also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons in home games versus teams outscoring opponents by 4.0 ppg or more on the season. The Purple Eagles have defeated these teams by an average of 3.0 points. Take the points.

7* Big East Game of the Year on Georgetown -2
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats on the road and further fueled by a double-digit loss at Xavier last month, Georgetown will take care of business at home this morning. While the true road has been unkind to the Hoyas, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four home/neutral court battles (three of these were at home). Two of these covers came against Villanova and Michigan State. In addition, Georgetown is 7-0 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It has won these contests by an average of 7.8 points. Take Georgetown.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +1.5
The Key: You want to fade teams like San Antonio that are off two consecutive upset wins or more when they are up against a team off two consecutive covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 41-17 ATS mark since 1996. In addition, you want to back teams like Phoenix when the line is +3 to -3 that are playing three games or less in a 10-day span and are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent. Doing so has produced a 48-19 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 3-0 ATS this season. Off back-to-back satisfying wins on the road against the Clippers and Blazers, the Spurs won't be as hungry as the Suns tonight. Phoenix has lost the season's first two meetings with the Spurs so it will be extremely focused. Both teams are playing a third game in four days, but the Suns should be able to handle this situation better than the Spurs. Phoenix is 13-4 ATS when playing a third game in four days this season, winning these contests by an average score of 108.1 to 101.9. The Suns are also an impressive 20-9 ATS in the underdog role this season. The Spurs have covered the spread in three of their last four, including three straight, but are 1-8 ATS this season after covering the spread in three of their last four. Take Phoenix.

7* MAAC Game of the Year on Siena +6
The Key: This is a difficult spot for Manhattan, which is playing its second road game in three days. In addition, this is Manhattan's third game in six days. Fatigue will be an issue for the Jaspers tonight. Manhattan is 1 1/2 games out of first with a showdown against first-place Iona up next. Although that game is still a week away, the Jaspers won't be able to keep themselves from looking ahead because they handled Siena so easily (90-68) the first time around. Siena has had four days between games so it will be the fresher and more prepared side. I also believe it will be the hungrier side as it seeks revenge for the beating it received by Manhattan last month. Siena has been very competitive at home where it is 8-3 in its last 11. Two of these losses came in OT to very good Quinnipiac and Canisius squads. Quinnipiac is tied with Manhattan for second in the MAAC and Canisius is third. Home court has been huge in this series with the home team going 8-0 in the last eight meetings. Siena is 9-0 in its last nine home meetings against Manhattan, winning these by an average of 12.2 points. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on UNC-Charlotte +4
The Key: Expect a letdown from Middle Tennessee State as it hits the road following a huge blowout win over So. Miss. There is no shortage of trends going against MTSU here. The Blue Raiders are 0-11 ATS in road games the last two seasons when they check in with six or seven wins in their last eight games. They are 0-8 ATS the last two seasons in road games following a home win against a conference foe, 0-6 ATS the last two seasons in road games after two consecutive covers as a favorite, 0-7 ATS in road games the last two seasons following two or more consecutive home wins, 0-7 ATS in road games the last two seasons after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games and 0-12 ATS in road games the last two seasons after playing a game as a home favorite. MTSU is 0-6 ATS in road games this season after a win of 15 points or more, 0-6 ATS in road games this season after playing two consecutive games as favorite and 0-7 ATS in road games this season after one or more consecutive wins. Charlotte has lost three in a row and will be highly motivated as a result. And, it will be lacking no confidence considering it has big wins over Kansas State and Michigan on its resume. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Celtics +7
The Key: This is a tough situation for the Suns, who are off an emotionally and physically draining overtime win in Denver last night. They have big games against the Spurs and Rockets on deck so I don't see them giving Boston their full attention here. The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when their starting five combines for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Boston will be the fresher side having had last night off. Plus, we can't ignore what the Celtics have done on the road lately. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus teams that have winning home marks. These teams were the Heat, Trail Blazers, Warriors and Clippers. Take the points.

7* CAA Game of the Year on College of Charleston -2.5
The Key: Motivated by an ugly upset loss to Northeastern and further fueled by an 11-point loss at William & Mary last month, College of Charleston will take care of business tonight. The Cougars are on an impressive 19-6 ATS run when seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, winning by an average of 7.3 points in this spot. In addition, the Tribe is on a 3-17 ATS slide in road games occurring 15 games or more into the season versus teams with a win percentage of 40-49%. They have lost these contests by an average of 7.3 points. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Citadel +16
The Key: Davidson is getting a little too much respect on the road tonight. The Wildcats are 0-3 ATS this season when laying 15 points or more. Citadel, on the other hand, is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when catching more than 10 points. In addition, Davidson hasn't won by more than 15 points in its last five road matchups in the series. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

7* AAC Game of the Year on Temple +9
The Key: You want to fade favorites that are off two consecutive covers as chalk when they're up against a team that's off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 26-6 ATS mark the last five seasons. Temple is off an 82-58 loss to Louisville, and it loss 75-52 in the season's first meeting with SMU. However, the Owls are on a 15-4 ATS run at home following a loss of 15 points or more. They are 11-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss over the last three seasons and 9-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss over the last three seasons. Temple is 17-3 ATS under coach Fran Dunphy in home games occurring 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams carrying a win percentage of 60-80%. Playing a second road game in three days is one of the most difficult situations in college basketball, and that's the spot SMU finds itself in here. What makes the situation even more difficult is the fact that it will have an extremely tough time getting up for a team it blew out last week. Temple will undoubtedly be the more motivated side as it goes after a measure of revenge. Take the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -4.5
The Key: It will be a tough encore for Kansas State following a huge overtime win against rival Kansas, especially on the road where the Wildcats have dropped four straight by an average of 11.3 points. Baylor enters with some momentum and confidence after destroying TCU, and it will be lacking no motivation as it tries to end a four-game home losing streak. The Bears lost both meetings with K-State last season so this game is also about revenge. Baylor is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games versus a team with a losing road record. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points 15 games or more into the season in a game where both teams average 14.5 turnovers or less are 70-38 ATS provided they shoot 45-47.5% and are up against a team that holds opponents to 40% shooting or worse. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB Line Mistake of the Week on San Jose State +9.5
The Key: This is a letdown spot for Wyoming, which is off a big win over San Diego State. The books have drastically overvalued the Cowboys here as a result of the win. Consider that they are just 3-7 in games played away from home this season with none of the wins coming by more than 7 points. The Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. They are also 0-6 ATS after a win by six points or less over the last two seasons, losing by an average score of 66.1 to 59.3 in this spot. In addition, teams headed up by coach Larry Shyatt are 1-9 ATS in road games off an upset win in conference play and have lost by an average score of 74.5 to 54.5 in this situation. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on Texas-San Antonio +4.5
The Key: This is a very difficult situation for Florida Atlantic following Thursday's big upset win at UTEP. Now, it plays a second road game in three days, which is very tough, and it has been a struggle for the Owls on the road this season. They are just 3-11 in games played away from home. And, they are on a 1-11 ATS slide in road games following a road win, losing by an average of 7.9 points in these contests. In addition, FAU is on a 0-6 ATS slide following two consecutive wins against conference opponents, losing by an average of 4.0 points in this spot. Take the points.

6* AAC Annihilator on Rutgers +8
The Key: SMU is being overvalued following a streak where it has won three in a row and eight of nine. And, it doesn't do the Mustangs any favors that they are off a big win over Cincinnati and now find themselves ranked in the AP for the first time since 1985. This game has letdown written all over it for SMU, which hasn't been nearly as strong on the road. In 11 games played on road/neutral floor venues this season, SMU has only one win of more than eight points. Rutgers has been competitive at home where it is 5-1 ATS in its last six, and it will be out for revenge after falling at SMU last month. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a win percentage of 40-49% that are off a road win in conference action are 17-4 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on Cal-Riverside +6
The Key: This game is all about revenge for Cal-Riverside, which was absolutely crushed 100-69 at Hawaii Jan. 18. I expect a much different result this time around considering Riverside has won by 17 and lost by only 4 the last two times its hosted the Warriors. The Highlanders were unable to build on a win over Fullerton and lost to Long Beach State last game, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following defeat. They are also on a 6-0 ATS run in these Thursday games while the Warriors are on a 1-7 ATS slide on Thursday night. Take the points.

7* C-USA Game of the Year on UAB +4.5
The Key: With a big showdown at Middle Tennessee Saturday, I expect Southern Miss to get caught looking right past a team it defeated in each of last season's three meetings. Those defeats, as well as a three-game skid, assure us UAB will be ready to go this evening. Now is the time to fade the Golden Eagles on the highway. They are 0-6 ATS in February road games the last three seasons, losing them by an average score of 75.1 to 70.9. They are 0-7 ATS under coach Donnie Tyndall in road games after five or more consecutive wins, losing these contests by an average score of 68.0 to 63.1. You also want to back home teams that return four starters when they are off two or more consecutive upset losses on the road. Doing so has produced a 30-8 ATS mark since 1997. The Blazers are a strong 11-2 at home this season, and they have won or lost by fewer than 4.5 points in 11 straight home meetings against So. Miss. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville State +3.5
The Key: Off a big upset win at Eastern Kentucky to move into sole possession of second place in the East division of the Ohio Valley, Morehead State will look right past a Jacksonville State squad it just defeated 65-54 on Feb. 1. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, will be hungry to avenge that loss as well as end a three-game losing streak. The Eagles haven't been a good investment on the road where they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight. They have also been a lousy investment in Ohio Valley play at 5-15 ATS in their last 20. In addition, they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Morehead State scored 86 points on a ridiculous 58.3% shooting last game, and that actually bodes very well for us. Consider that the Eagles are 1-7 ATS this season after scoring 80 points or more. They are 5-16 ATS in road games since 1997 after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better. Jacksonville State is an impressive 19-6 ATS in home games occurring 15 games or more into the season against teams that have a winning record since 1997. The home team has been the play in this matchup as it has gone 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Jacksonville State won 70-59 when it last hosted the Eagles last season, and I expect another solid win from the home team here.

6* NBA Line Mistake on 76ers +8
The Key: This is the most points Utah has laid all season, and it is too many. This line is an overreaction to the back-to-back beatings Philly took, but those were to really good, explosive offensive teams. No one likes getting buried like that, and I fully expect the 76ers to have a performance that saves face here. You want to back road teams that give up 103.0 ppg or more if they trailed by double digits at the half in their last two games. Doing so has produced a 79-34 ATS mark since 1996, and this system is 4-0 ATS this season. Utah has won back-to-back games for the fifth time this season, and it is 0-4 ATS following the previous four times with an average losing margin of 10.3 points. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Washington +3.5
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive road defeats and a 79-67 loss at Stanford, Washington will be ready to rock and roll when it hits its home floor tonight. Teams headed up my coach Lorenzo Romar are on a 14-4 ATS run following three consecutive losses to conference opponents. His teams are on a 22-5 ATS run at home following a road loss in conference play. In addition, his Washington squads are 9-2 ATS at home following three consecutive road games, winning by an average score of 84.7 to 69.5 in this spot. It is also worth noting that Romar's squads are on a 21-9 ATS run as a home underdog or pickem. You want to fade road favorites or pickems that are off a double-digit road victory if they carry a 60-80% win percentage and are playing a team with a 51-60% win rate. Doing so has produced a 30-8 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* Mid-major Massacre on Northern Iowa -10.5
The Key: Northern Iowa has lost its last three games. Two of the losses have come at home where it was previously 8-0 so it will be very hungry tonight. Adding fuel to the fire is a 93-87 loss at Loyola in the first meeting. The Ramblers are off a nice win over Illinois State (we were on them in that game), but now they go out on the road where they are 0-10 this season. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus teams that have a losing road record. Northern Iowa's aforementioned home losses were to good Indiana State and Wichita State teams, and there's no shame in losing to either of them. While I like the motivational aspect of those defeats, I also like that the Panthers have proven themselves at home against good competition. They defeated VCU by 9 points at home earlier this season. Northern Iowa isn't an overly aggressive defensive team. It likes to pack it in and make opponents wind down the shot clock. This strategy often leads to teams forcing bad shots late in the clock. The Panthers don't come up with a lot of steals because of the way they play. However, Loyola is 0-7 ATS in road games under coach Porter Moser versus teams that average 6.0 or fewer steals per game. Northern Iowa's strategy should work well against a Loyola squad that has shot the ball rather poorly on the road.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavericks +9.5
The Key: We went against the Mavericks last night as we expected them to get caught looking ahead to this game, and that's exactly what happened. This is a game Dallas wants badly because it was brutally embarrassed by the Pacers in both of last season's meetings. The fact it was brutally embarrassed last night only adds to its level of motivation. The Dallas defense was non-existent last night, but here's the good news - the Mavs respond. They are 8-0 ATS in road games this season after allowing 110 points or more, winning these games by an average score of 103.4 to 94.9. The Pacers have been extremely overvalued following high point outputs and are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game as a result. In addition, the Mavericks are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 15-3 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. The Mavs are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 road games and 28-14 ATS when playing a second road game in as many nights under coach Carlisle. Take the points.

6* MWC Bailout (ESPNU) on Wyoming +4.5
The Key: San Diego State is extremely fortunate to have its winning streak still intact. The Aztecs were very fortunate to win at San Diego clear back in their first true road game of the season, and they lucky to win in each of their last two road trips to Utah State and Boise State. They might find a way to squeak by again, but it won't be easy. And if they do, I don't see it by more than a field goal. The Cowboys won last season's home meeting 58-45 as their methodical pace and stifling defense gave SDSU fits. Consider that SDSU is 0-6 ATS in road games the last two seasons versus slow-down teams like Wyoming that average 53 shots or fewer per game. The Aztecs have lost these games by an average score of 62.8 to 60.2. The Cowboys enter off a close loss at UNLV but are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following defeat. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus teams carrying a win percentage greater than .600. You want to fade road teams at the 15-game mark or the season or later if they've shot 50% or better the last two games, and if they hold opponents to 40% shooting or worse and are playing a team that holds foes to 40-42.5% shooting. Doing so has produced a 34-9 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on Bobcats +3.5
The Key: This is a great situation for the Bobcats, who have had the last two days off and will be playing for just the third time in 10 days. They will be far fresher than a Dallas team playing its fifth game in nine days. The fact the Mavericks have had to travel following every one of these games has made it an even more difficult stretch. In addition, the Mavs are at Indiana tomorrow night, and they have been absolutely embarrassed the last two times they've faced the Pacers so they will be looking ahead to that game, especially since they already recorded a seven-point victory over Charlotte earlier this season. You want to back home underdogs in non-conference action that are playing three games of less in 10 days as doing so has produced a 48-21 ATS mark since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.6 points on average but have won by 0.7 points on average. This system is 12-4 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Tennessee +2
The Key: Tennessee was crushed 67-41 at Florida in the first meeting, but I expect the Vols to deliver a much different result at home where they have won seven of their last eight in the series. The Vols have been an outstanding home dog over the years. In fact, they are 24-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6.0 points or less or pickem since 1997, winning these games by an average score of 69.9 to 66.7. Zooming in, Tennessee is 8-1 ATS as a home dog or pickem over the last three seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 66.4 to 59.8. Tennessee has also been strong in revenge spots. In fact, it is 13-2 ATS under coach Martin when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, winning these contests by an average score of 72.7 to 61.6. The Vols are 9-1 ATS under Martin when seeking revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points, winning these contests by an average score of 73.4 to 65.4. Take Tennessee.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on North Carolina-Wilmington +4.5
The Key: Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off three consecutive conference wins are 0-5 ATS this season provided that carry a win percentage of 60-80% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 20-40%. In addition, Towson State is on a 0-7 ATS slide in road games following three straight games of attempting 10 shots or fewer than its opponents. The Tigers have gotten away with their slower pace of play because they've been efficient, but now they hit the road where the shots don't fall as easily. NC-Wilmington has struggled offensively, but its defense has been pretty good at home where it is holding opponents to 63.4 points. Towson State's defense has been terrible away from home where it is giving up 76.5 points. These schools have played a lot of close games over the years, and the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings as a result. The Seahawks have won seven of their last nine home meetings with Towson, and the two defeats came by just five points so they'll have an excellent opportunity to cover this number. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -5
The Key: Look for the Nets to respond following Friday's embarrassing 111-95 loss to Detroit. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pelicans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 road meetings in the series. Lay the points.

6* A-10 Annihilator on Rhode Island +4
The Key: UMass hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in its last three. It is 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games played away from home. The Minutemen started the season on a covering tear, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, but the books have adjusted, and they are just 3-8-1 ATS since. The Minutemen are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win, and they are on a 2-10 ATS slide in road games if they check in with at least 15 wins in their last 20 games. Rhode Island has been competitive at home where it is 8-3 on the season. One of the losses came by a single point to Saint Louis. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Loyola-Chicago -1
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats, including a bad home loss to Bradley last time out, and further fueled by a 59-50 loss at Illinois State in season's first meeting, Loyola-Chicago will be ready to go this afternoon. The Ramblers are on a 5-1-1 ATS run in Missouri Valley play, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus winning teams. In addition, they are 12-3 ATS under coach Porter Moser when they check in with losses in six or seven of their last eight games. They are 13-5 ATS under Moser when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. The Redbirds have struggled on the road where they are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six. Take Loyola.

6* Missouri Valley Conference *CA$H COW* on Northern Iowa +7
The Key: Northern Iowa is one tough cookie at home where it is 8-1 on the season, and it will be lacking no confidence when it goes up against the Shockers this evening. The Panthers won last season's home meeting with Wichita State 57-52, and they have won or lost by fewer than seven points in 7 of the last 8 and 12 of the last 14 home meetings. UNI has had no problem getting up for big games over the years. In fact, it is 30-16 ATS since 1997 versus teams that are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 ppg or more and are losing to these teams by just 1.4 points on average. The Panthers are also 28-16 ATS under coach Ben Jacobson when matched up against a team carrying a win percentage of 80% or higher, and they have lost these games by just 1.4 points on average. You also want to fade February road favorites or pickems off six consecutive wins or more as doing so has produced a 97-54 ATS mark the last five seasons. Last but not least, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points with the home team.

7* Atlantic 10 Conference Game of the Year on La Salle +4.5
The Key: La Salle has an excellent shot at knocking off St. Louis this evening. The Billikens haven't been the same team on the road where they were fortunate to beat Valpo, Rhode Island and Duquesne. La Salle has been terrific at home where it has won seven of its last eight, and the fact it has gone seven straight games without a cover adds to its value. St. Louis is off a big win and cover at St. Joe's, but it is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a cover. You also want to fade February road favorites or pickems off six consecutive wins or more as doing so has produced a 97-54 ATS mark the last five seasons. Fading favorites off a double-digit win in conference play has produced a 101-66 ATS mark the last five seasons, provided they carry a win percentage of 80% or greater and are playing a team with a 51-60% win percentage. The Billikens are on a 5-15 ATS slide in road games against teams with a 51-60% win rate, losing to these teams by an average score of 69.3 to 64.0. The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take the points.

6* Mountain West Conference Line Mistake on Air Force +3
The Key: Colorado State should be laying three points on the road considering it is 1-6 on the road this season with the lone win coming by only two points. The Rams check in off a big 75-57 home win over UNLV, and that's certainly worth noting because they are 0-6 ATS under coach Larry Eustachy in road games off a home win against a conference foe. They have lost these six contests by an average score of 69.5 to 67.5. Colorado State is 0-7 ATS off any home win this season. The Rams took exceptional care of the basketball last game, committing only seven turnovers. However, they are 0-7 ATS this season after a game committing 8 or less turnovers. Air Force hasn't been able to create many turnovers lately, but it is 6-0 ATS in home games the last three seasons after five straight games of forcing 14 or less turnovers. These turnover numbers are worth while because they factor into the line, and we are getting better line value as a result. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +9
The Key: This isn't a good situation for Dallas. The odds are stacked heavily against the Mavs here. Consider that fading Friday night home favorites after one or more consecutive wins has produced a 257-170 (60%) ATS mark the last five seasons. The Mavs are off a big division win at Memphis Wednesday and will have a difficult time giving a Utah team they defeated by double digits earlier this season their full attention. After three consecutive defeats, the Jazz will have no problem getting up for this one. Plus, they have three days of rest and preparation time on their side. Dallas has been a much better investment on the road as it is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. You want to fade home teams 42 games or more into the season if they average 45.5-47.5% shooting from the field and have shot 50% or better from the field in their last two games when they're up against a team that allows 45.5-47.5% shooting. Doing so has produced a 65-28 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. It is also worth noting that the Jazz are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Niagara +8
The Key: This is a tough situation for Iona because it has a big game at Canisius Sunday that will likely determine sole possession of first place in the MAAC. That is also a revenge game as Iona lost at home by two points to Canisius in the first meeting. The Gaels defeated Niagara 118-92 Jan. 4 so it will be easy for them to look right past the Purple Eagles and on to Canisius. Niagara hasn't played since Saturday so it has had nearly a week to prepare. Iona has had just two days of preparation time. The Gaels check in off an easy win at Monmouth, but they are 1-9 ATS off a road win of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Gaels are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Purple Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take the points.

6* SEC Annihilator (ESPN2) on Georgia +3
The Key: Off three consecutive losses, Georgia will be extremely motivated to get back in the win column tonight. Consider that the Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS under coach Fox in home games off three straight losses to conference foes. They haven't just won these seven contests, they've won them by an average score of 70.4 to 58.1. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by Johnny Jones are just 5-19 ATS as a road favorite of 6.0 points or less or pickem, and they have lost these games by an average score of 71.5 to 69.9. LSU is 2-3 in true road games with neither of the two wins coming by more than three points. Georgia has won its last two home games against the Tigers by 20 and 9 points, respectively. Take the points.