Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th and 68th quickest in average possession length the last two years. Billy Lange's team has slowed down considerably this year. St. Joe's ranks just 214th quickest in the country so far this year. I think Lange realizes he doesn't have the firepower right now to compete with better teams.

Georgetown has a lot of length and they will make shots in the paint tough to come by. The Hoyas rank 51st in half court defense rank so far this year. St. Joe's has only been in transition on 7% of their offensive possessions on the year. 

This game is being played on a neutral court in Anaheim. This is a unique venue that has a tough backdrop for shooters. Both games stayed under here last night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies aren't a very good offensive team on an annual basis, but they are always good on defense. Montana has shot the ball better than expected this year, and they have been worse on defense than normal. I think that regresses to the mean.

The website Shot Quality analyzes quality of shots taken by each teams and spits out what the score should have been. Montana's last three games have finished 38 points higher in all than they should have been. That has made this total be set pretty high for one of their games.

UC San Diego has been drawing an insane amount of fouls so far this year. No one in the country had a free throw rate as high last year as UC San Diego has this year so far. That should regress to the mean and help lower scoring as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are a completely different team this year under Ben Johnson instead of Richard Pitino. They have slowed their pace down drastically. Minnesota has seen 3 of their 4 games finish regulation with 127 points or less. 

Jacksonville is playing at one of the slowest tempos of any team in the country. They are using up 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. They have a new coach this year as well and they have a new slower tempo. 

The oddsmakers typically need a bit to adjust to the new pace of teams like this.

Jacksonville turns the ball over a bunch which is just wasted possessions. Minnesota doesn't get out in transition much at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have played a bunch of fast paced teams so far this year. Their offensive average length of possession is slightly slower than the average team in the country so far this year. 

The website Shot Quality takes the quality of shots and spits out projected final scores compared to what the actual score was. Western Illinois had a game against DePaul with a final of 84-80, but SQ thinks the final should have been 70-64. Their last game against N Kentucky was also three points higher than it should have been.

Eastern Michigan has been very good defensively against shots from beyond the arc. Western Illinois takes a bunch of three pointers, and I think they'll be contested more in this game than they have been in most other games for Western Illinois.

This is a high total for a game with two teams who have mediocre offenses at best.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a new coach in Tim Miles. Miles is a good coach and I trust him to help this team improve over time. Miles has this team shooting a bunch of long range jumpers early in the season. They have been falling more than expected thus far, but I don't think the 3 point success continues. 

According to the website Shot Quality, the Spartans have outperformed their expected point total regarding the average shot of that quality this year. They have scored 251 points so far this year. According to Shot Quality, they should have scored only 229 points. 

Northern Colorado's defense is a tough matchup for San Jose State. Northern Colorado excels at running opponents off the 3 point line. Coach Smiley has continued the tradition started by Jeff Linder. N Colorado is a top 60 or 70 three point defense every year.

Northern Colorado is a good under team because they don't get many second chance opportunities and they don't give up many offensive rebounds either. 

Both of these teams have faced a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year. Their defensive numbers should improve, while their offensive numbers are inflated.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack are the favorites here, and they want to run and gun. Nevada gave up a whopping 102 points against South Dakota State yesterday. 

Nevada has had at least 143 total points in every game they have played this year, and this line makes very little sense to me. 

George Mason is an above average team in terms of tempo. Nevada is a top 50 team in terms of tempo. The pace will be very quick here. 

I had this total projected at 144 so I see this one as pretty far off.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams just played on Saturday at a neutral site. The final score was 89-87. The tempo in the game was a blazing fast 78 possessions. 

Now, they go to Northern Arizona where the Lumberjacks will be playing on their home court and the total is set this low. 

Northern Arizona is pushing the pace more this year since they have Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Cone. The Lumberjacks have been a bottom 50 defense in the country nearly every single year in recent memory.

UT Rio Grande Valley is slightly better on offense this year, and they are clearly worse defensively. Matt Figgers is a great offensive minded coach.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits and Nevada Wolf Pack meet in a neutral site contest on Monday night. 

Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time.

Both of these teams shoot a lot of long range jumpers. Those long range jumpers can be a bit harder to hit in a neutral site gym.

This is such a high total that I have to back the under. An 81-79 game is under the total.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Tulane Green Wave meet on Monday afternoon in the Bahamas at a neutral site.

Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time.

Tulane plays a lot of zone and uses some full court pressure to actually slow the pace of the game down. 

Drexel and Tulane are both very good in transition defense so easy buckets should be hard to come by here. 

The long trip and a new gym is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies have decided to slow things down this year. They are playing 3.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. It makes sense because this team just wasn't seeing any success. They might as well try something different. 

Denver is playing differently under a new coach as well. He has them focused on defense, something that has been a major weakness in recent seasons for the Pioneers. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in average possession length (so they are among the 75 slowest out of 358 in the country). 

Denver hasn't played a game that finished with more than this total all season including their games against Division II schools. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral court unders early in the season have been great long term (54.9% in the last 15 years). Early tip offs at neutral court sites have been even better in the long haul. This is about as early of a start time as you will ever see in college basketball.

Temple is a solid defensive team that works hard on that end under Coach McKie, but they have no real identity on the offensive end.

Elon is a good defensive rebounding team. Limiting Temple to one shot is key and I think they can do solid in that area. Elon's offense relies too much on questionable mid range jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing two seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. Minnesota has had two very low scoring games in their first three contests. 

Purdue Fort Wayne played a bit slower in their first contest than they did last season. This is a Fort Wayne team that puts up a lot of 3's, but Minnesota's defense is designed to run you off the 3 point line. The Golden Gophers should make it hard on Fort Wayne to get open looks from deep in this game.

This total is several points higher than I believe it should be.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The CS Northridge Matadors have Trent Johnson as their interim coach. His preferred style of play is much different than Mark Gottfried. Gottfried has been a fast paced coach his whole career. Johnson has always been a slow it down type of coach. We are already seeing that in the numbers for this season. CS Northridge is averaging 20.7 seconds per possession on offense this year. Last year they were only using 16.3 seconds per possession. A 4.4 second difference is a huge tempo change.

Eastern Washington has had high scoring contests in their first couple, but they have played two top 50 teams in terms of tempo they are now playing a bottom 50 team in terms of tempo.

Neither of these teams are great defensively, but this is a very high total with one team trying to stall throughout the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams are a high quality team. Colorado State has played three terrible defenses though. The Rams have taken on Oral Roberts (good offense bad defense), Arkansas Pine Bluff, and Peru State. Bradley isn't an elite defense by any means, but the Braves are an above average defense in most years under a defensive minded head coach.

Bradley offensively is a mess right now. This is an offense with no real identity. Elijah Childs and Terry Nolan are gone and they were the go to guys. Colorado State should slow this Bradley offense down.

This is a neutral site game. Early season neutral site games have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Micah Shrewsberry is Penn State's new coach and he already has changed the way the Nittany Lions play in a big way. Penn State has slowed their pace down dramatically. The Nittany Lions are averaging 20.1 seconds per possession. Last year they were averaging only 16.6 seconds per possession. 

Penn State is likely to be playing from the lead here. They are big favorites against a St. Francis team that doesn't have many good shooters from the outside. Penn State should be a good defensive rebounding team this year, so I expect St. Francis to only get one shot in most possessions.

This is a high total for the favorite being such a slow paced team. Penn State only scored 75 points against a bad Youngstown State defense earlier this year. Myreon Jones was a big loss for Penn State from last year's team.

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* For years now Temple has been much better defensively than they are on offense. The Owls always play hard, but they just aren't efficient on offense.

Clemson is an elite team defensively under Brad Brownell. The Tigers have a lot of length that should bother Temple in this one. Clemson also controls the tempo and does a good job keeping the game in the halfcourt.

Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at noon eastern in South Carolina. New Mexico State is a long way from home for this one.

New Mexico State is a tremendous defensive team that works hard to keep the tempo slow. Davidson has had higher scoring games than they should have based on the quality of their shots in those games.

Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens and La Salle Explorers have played two games each and according to Shot Quality, both of these teams have played in games that have been higher scoring than they should have been based on the averages of their quality of shots. 

A good example of a statistic that is screaming for regression is Delaware's 3 point defense. The Blue Hens have allowed opponents to shoot 62.1% from 3 point range. We know that definitely isn't going to continue. 

La Salle has shot 33.6% or lower from 3 point range in the last three seasons. The Explorers have played two teams that have finished regulation with 134 points or lower. 

This should be a game with a tempo right around the average pace in the country. Regression to the mean should mean the under has a good chance.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars have slowed their tempo down quite a bit this year. BYU is 301st in the nation in average possession length this year, and last year they were 157th. 

Oregon typically plays pretty slowly, and they are doing that again this year. Oregon is 321st out of 358 in the nation in terms of pace of play. 

Oregon's defense should be much better this year with Quincy Guerrier in the frontcourt. He's a great shot blocker, but he isn't great on the offensive end. Jacob Young is also a good perimeter defender and he came over from Rutgers.

This game is at Moda Center in Portland rather than being a true home game for Oregon. These different sites are typically helpful for the under.

Both of these teams are good offensively, but the pace should be slow and the defenses are solid.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Seton Hall has decided to play much quicker this year since they are without star big man Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Pirates rank 11th in average possession length in the country in their first two games. They are using only 13.9 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Michigan has sped up their pace a bit this year as well. The Wolverines are 117th in pace on offense out of 358 teams in the country. The Wolverines should get quite a few second chance opportunities in this game because I consider Seton Hall a relatively weak defensive rebounding team.

Seton Hall is allowing opponents to shoot 11% from 3 point range so far this year. Michigan is allowing opponents to shoot 19.6% from 3 point range so far this year. These are likely good perimeter defenses, but not this good! There will be some regression coming.

Signs of defensive regression and a fast pace.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners no longer have Keaton Wallace or Jhivan Jackson in the backcourt. They were the stars for this team for many years. Without these two, UTSA's offense takes a huge hit. Jacob Germany is a key player for the Roadrunners now and he is a solid big man who is a pretty good shot blocker. 

UTSA likely slows their pace down this year without two stars in the backcourt. They no longer have the ideal team to run the floor. UTSA lost to Texas A&M Commerce (?!) on Monday night. They put up only 62 points in that one.

Denver was a new coach in Jeff Wulburn. He took over for Rodney Billups who struggled mightily at Denver. The Denver defense has been atrocious in recent years. Denver is clearly slowing the pace down this year as compared to recent seasons. The Pioneers have also looked better on defense. They held IUPUI to just 47 points yesterday.

This total is quite a bit higher than my projection.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Siena lost a lot from last year's team. The Saints are now without Jalen Pickett and that hurts them a bunch on offense. Manny Camper was a huge loss as well. Now, Siena doesn't really have a go to guy on offense. 

Yale has been good defensively in past seasons and I think they will be pretty good on defense again this year. 

Siena put up just 47 and 63 points against St. Bonnie and Delaware. 

Neither of these teams want to push the pace very much. This is a high total for the tempo and the question marks I have about the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UNLV has played in two very low scoring games already this year. UNLV won 64-58 over Gardner Webb. They then won 55-52 over Cal. 

North Dakota State will finish the year in the bottom 40 teams or so in the country in terms of tempo. The Bison want to play a low scoring game, and they should get their way here.

UNLV has been playing much better defense so far this year under Kruger, but the offense has been stagnant to put it lightly.

Neither team fouls much or gets to the line often so barring a ref show this should be a pretty clean game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons have a good offense. The Dons feature good outside shooters in Shabazz and Stefanini. They also have the inside game with Massalki and Tape. The Dons are likely to overwhelm the small Samford team in the halfcourt.

Samford presses a bunch, and they are looking for quick turnovers and transition baskets. They should be able to get some against a San Francisco team who has turned the ball over on 23.9% of their possessions on offense so far this year. 

Both of these teams have struggled badly to play defense without fouling in recent seasons. I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies play a lot of low scoring games. Why? Montana will rank in the bottom 60 or 70 teams in the country in pace of play nearly every year. They are also much better on defense than on offense. Offensively, this team often struggles to get in a rhythm. On the defensive side, they'll make things tough for their opponent.

Mississippi State just torched the nets for 13/23 shooting from 3 point range last game against Montana. That has pushed this total too high. North Dakota isn't Mississippi State. The Fighting Hawks don't have many good shooters.

North Dakota stayed under this total against fast paced Milwaukee in game one. Montana is the better team and they should dictate pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams still aren't a good offensive team. Fordham has been hapless on offense the last few years. They have a new coach in Kyle Neptune, but this team hasn't just automatically become good at the outside jumper. I still expect Fordham to be in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. 

St. Thomas is a new Division I school this year. St. Thomas has had two pretty high scoring games this year and that has likely led to this total being steamed upward. It's important to note though that they played Chicago State and St. Francis (NY) in those games. Those are two of the bottom 20 defenses in the country. Fordham has been a top 100 defense in most recent seasons, and the Rams will at least be a much tougher defense than either of St. Thomas' first two opponents.

I don't think the pace will be all that quick here. Unless both teams are shooting it well, this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears sped up their pace of play some last year. Missouri State Coach Dana Ford said in the offseason that Jaylen Minnett was a big pickup for his team because, "He is a dynamic scoring guard that will allow us to play an even more up-tempo, aggressive style on both ends." 

Missouri State played a 77 possession game (very fast) against SE Missouri State in their season opener. The Bears were the team pushing the pace in that one for the most part. Missouri State only used 14.6 seconds of the shot clock on average in that game.

Alabama State has played two extremely fast paced games in their first two contests. Mo Williams is their coach and he wants this team to get up and down. Alabama State struggles badly with turnovers on the offensive end, but Missouri State hasn't forced many turnovers the last couple seasons. 

A lot of transition basketball in this one. The pace will be there. As long as the shooting numbers are decent I like this to fall over the total.

Take the over.  

*5 Star Top Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been taught to play at an extremely quick tempo by their new head coach Tommy Lloyd. Arizona played faster in their first game than they did in any game last year. The Wildcats used only 13.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average, and that is despite the fact that they had a large lead throughout most of that game. 

Arizona won 81-52 and that game stayed under the total. There were two things that kept that game under the total. Northern Arizona decided to go zone and try to slow the game down. Northern Arizona also was dreadful shooting the basketball. They put up just 0.74 points per possession.

UT Rio Grande Valley has a new coach too in Matt Figgers. Figgers is known as a great offensive coach, but his teams aren't usually very good on defense. Figgers said he has encouraged Ricky Nelson to push the pace from the point guard spot as much as he can this year. Look for UT Rio Grande to try to get in transition when they can as well.

Arizona is too good offensively for UT Rio Grande Valley to slow them down. In this case, Arizona is playing a team who clearly wants to play quickly. The total is set lower than their first game which saw the total steamed up to 145 points against Northern Arizona. 

I had this total set quite a bit higher than this.

Take the over. Top Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* Josh Schertz promised to have this Indiana State team playing much faster this year. He came over from Lincoln Memorial (D II powerhouse school) where his teams always played extremely fast. In game one against Wisconsin Green Bay (a team that wants to play slowly), Indiana State forced the tempo very well. The Sycamores won 81-77 in a game that played to a quick 73 possessions. 

Purdue has an impressive amount of offensive weapons this year. Jaden Ivey is a breakout candidate. Stefanovic is an excellent outside shooter. Edey and Williams are next to impossible to guard on the inside. Purdue piled up 96 points on Bellarmine in the season opener. Indiana State doesn't have the talent and length to stop them defensively either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abilene Christian was elite defensively last year, and they were no better than mediocre on offense. They lost some of their best offensive talent from a year ago and they have a new head coach. 

Texas A&M wants to grind games down and win with their defense and tenacity. Buzz Williams has a team with a lot of length that I think can really bother Abilene Christian. On the other hand, Texas A&M doesn't have good guards that I trust with breaking Abiliene Christian's aggressive trapping defense without turning it over a lot. 

I expect both teams to have a lot of wasted empty possessions where they don't even get a shot up in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats are going to play much faster this year under first year head coach Tommy Lloyd. He said his top priority early in the season is to get this team running and pushing the pace. The Wildcats have very athletic big men this year who will be able to dominate the weak Northern Arizona defense in the frontcourt.

Northern Arizona's coach said before the season that he feels he has more guys who are capable of pushing the tempo than he has had in recent years. It's a good thing because they are likely  to need to push the tempo most of the way here since they should be down by quite a few through this game.

The last two years these two have played the game went over the total both times and that was with slower paced teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys are without Cade Cunningham, but this team showed they can score last year even without Cade in the lineup. The pace for Boynton's teams will always be quick.

UT Arlington has a new head coach, Greg Young, and he said his top priority is for this UT Arlington team to revert back to the extremely fast tempo they played at a few years ago. Here is a great chance for them to do just that against an Oklahoma State team that likes to run as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores are a team I expect to undergo a major "pace change" this year with their new head coach Josh Schertz. Schertz has been at Division II powerhouse Lincoln Memorial for years and that team has pushed the pace to the extreme while he was there. He said in the preseason he wants there to be a much quicker tempo for Indiana State.

Will Ryan coaches Green Bay and they don't play very fast, but they are very weak defensively so they still had quite a few pretty high scoring games last season.

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams have new coaches this year. Both of these also lost a ton of star power off their team from a year ago. Though Joe Golding is gone at Abilene Christian I would expect their defense to stay very strong and their offense to be scrappy but not efficient.

Craig Smith is the new coach at Utah. Smith is an excellent defensive coach. The Utes are very short handed on offense this year, but I expect them to play very well defensively for their coach.

The pace here should be relatively slow and I expect both teams to have to work very hard for open looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Big pace change coming for UMBC. Ryan Odom is gone and Jim Ferry is their new head coach. Ferry's teams have pushed the tempo year after year. Odom's teams played a lot of low scoring tight games. 

UMass was happy to run last year and I think they'll play fast enough again for this one to get past the posted total unless there is terrible shooting numbers across the board.

UMBC's totals will look a lot different this year. I don't the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gonzaga and UCLA shot lights out in the Final 4. Baylor's defense has been tremendous in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears likely know they need to win this game with their defense. 

Gonzaga and Baylor rank number one and number two in offensive efficiency. There isn't anything negative I can say about these two offenses. The equalizer is how high this totals number is and how big of a game this is for both teams. 

As a general rule, the under has fared better in big games on neutral courts. This is the biggest game of the year and it is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Could these teams nail a bunch of shots and go over this total? Of course they could. With the high stakes and this high of a total though, I have to side with the under. History is on the side of the under in this situation. 

Even Baylor's game against Arkansas (a very fast paced team) only got to 153 points despite great shooting from both teams. Gonzaga's matchups with Oklahoma, Creighton, and USC all went under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins deserve a lot of credit for having gotten this far. This team was down double digits in the first half against Michigan State in the First Four. It's hard to believe that they rolled into the Final 4 by beating Alabama and Michigan in back to back games. They were able to turn the Alabama and Michigan games into much lower scoring games than expected. UCLA will try hard to slow the pace down here. Can they do it? I think Gonzaga will still push the tempo quite a bit, but I do think UCLA does a better job slowing the pace than USC did in the last round.

Gonzaga now ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. While their offense gets all the credit (and it is awesome), this Gonzaga defense has looked very good as well. The Bulldogs have showed in each of their last two games that if they get a large lead they will definitely grind the pace down to a halt in the last six minutes or so of the contest. Since the spread sits at 14, there is a real chance this is one of those games where Gonzaga slows things down a lot late.

In the NCAA Tournament, betting the under in a game with a large spread has been a great long term betting system. 

This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium and the shooting backdrop in a huge football stadium like this can be very difficult. The under has done well here in the long run.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the USC Trojans and the winner will head to the Final 4. 

Gonzaga has been tremendous all season on offense. There isn't anything negative I can say about the Bulldogs offense. They are extremely balanced and talented. They are up against by far the best defense they have faced so far this year in this contest though. 

USC has been mixing in a lot of zone of late. Andy Enfield's team ranks first in the nation in 2 point defense (Gonzaga is 1st in 2 point offense). The Trojans have two great frontcourt defenders in the Mobley's. This will make Gonzaga work much harder for their points in the paint than they are accustomed to. The Bulldogs are still going to score quite a few, but I think USC can slow them down at least some.

USC's offense isn't as good as they have looked in the last two games. The Trojans are 21/35 from 3 point range in their last two games. This is a team that shot a little less than 36% from 3 point range in the regular season. 

USC has to know that they have a much better chance of winning this game if they slow down the pace. Enfield is a good coach so I trust him to try to have his team control the pace at least to some degree. 

USC is 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is clearly a plus for the under. 

In the NCAA Tournament- games with a spread of 6 or more and a total of 138.5 or higher are 147-105 to the under (58.3%) in the last 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The USC Trojans defense has been elite this year. USC is first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Evan Mobley is an absolute force in the paint on defense. USC is still underrated by many people on the defensive end in my opinion. 

Oregon's Dana Altman is a tremendous defensive coach. He can game plan to play his matchup zone or even a 1-3-1 or man to man to keep the offense guessing. He is likely to bring out the full court press here, but it is a full court press that actually tends to slow the pace down and make the opponent work very hard to find an open shot.

Oregon ran up and down the court with Iowa. The Ducks haven't done that on many occasions. The fact that they nearly put 100 on Iowa has this total inflated by a few points. 

The first time these two played it was 72-58 and played to a slow pace of 62 possessions. This game means a ton and I think that will lead to strong defense and careful offensive possessions for the two teams. The fact that these two teams know each other so well also lends itself to a defensive minded game.

This should be a great matchup between two really good coaches. Expect open shots to be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange are 29/58 from 3 point range in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Syracuse is just 35% from 3 point range on the season. Houston has ranked 1st, 8th, and 12th at defending beyond the 3 point line in the past three years. Kelvin Sampson's team should have a good game plan for really contesting Buddy Boeheim and company's long range jumpers here.

Houston plays at a very slow pace. They rank 325th in the country. The Cougars are a good offensive team, but they aren't quite as good offensively with DeJon Jarreau hobbled. He is a real playmaker for this team. The Syracuse zone is different than anything Houston has seen this year, and I do think it will give them trouble here. 

Syracuse has played noticeably slower in their last five games than they did earlier in the season. Houston wants to play slowly. I think the pace here is a pretty slow one. It will take some good shooting numbers to get past this. Both defenses are very solid.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears defense started out the season well, but they have tailed off badly throughout the last 10 or 12 games. Baylor is still very good defensively if they can force a lot of turnovers. This team thrives on forcing their opposition to waste possessions. Villanova ranks first in the country in turnover percentage according to KenPom. While Gillespie is out for Villanova, they have done a great job taking care of the basketball in the last four games without him as well.

Robinson-Earl is a tremendous weapon for Jay Wright. Baylor's weakness is their post defense. Expect Villanova to get Robinson-Earl a ton of touches in the paint area and put a lot of pressure on this Baylor defense.

Villanova's defense ranks 221st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defenses. This is the worst Villanova defense since 2008. Baylor is an extremely efficient offensive machine. The Bears rank 3rd in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Baylor put up a big number here. Villanova has really struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Baylor is the best three point shooting team in the nation.

This one has the potential to be a foul fest late with a spread of 7 points. The offenses are much better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Maryland ranks 27th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Terrapins rank 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency since the start of February though. Both of these teams are far better on the defensive end than the offensive end. 

Alabama ranks 9th in the nation in tempo and that kind of pace is certainly a concern with taking unders, but this is a tough matchup for the Alabama offense. Alabama wants to run and score in transition. Maryland ranks in the top 15 percent of teams in the nation in transition defense. 

Alabama's offense has been trending in the wrong direction of late. They rank 73rd in the nation in offensive efficiency during that time. They rank 39th for the year overall.

Maryland's tempo has drastically slowed late in the year. They rank 319th in the nation in tempo. Maryland likes to shoot a lot of shots from beyond the arc, but Alabama has held opponents to 28.5% from long range on the season.

Maryland has seen 13 of their last 15 games stay under this total. Despite their tempo, Alabama has seen 4 of their last 7 games stay under this total.

Both defenses are tough matchups for the opposing offense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers slow the tempo down as much as possible. Look for them to work hard to make this a halfcourt game. Oregon State has been playing a lot of zone defense lately, and when you are slowing down a game playing zone makes a lot of sense especially when the opponent is a team like Oklahoma State who wants to run as much as possible.

Oklahoma State hasn't seen much zone this year, but they rate in the 15th percentile in zone offense so far this year, so that could be a problem here. On the other end, Oklahoma State is an excellent defensive team, and they have been going zone part of the time lately as well. 

Oklahoma State is not a very good outside shooting team. Oregon State isn't as good offensively as they have looked in their last couple games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks defense has been exceptional at the end of this season. Bill Self has talked extensively about how much he loves the way this team has improved on the defensive end of the floor. 

Eastern Washington has been good offensively for much of the year. The Eagles do have a couple impressive players offensively. Still, they aren't accustomed to going up against this kind of athletic defense with a bunch of length. Eastern Washington only scored 52 against Oregon. That is the best defense they have faced this year. Kansas is a much better defense than Oregon on the season. 

Kansas' offensive efficiency is way down this year. The Jayhawks will score on Eastern Washington, but it probably won't be as pretty as you would expect if you think of Kansas as the same team they were a few years ago.

These top seed games where the higher ranked team is a big favorite have gone under at a tremendous rate in the NCAA Tournament in the first round in the past decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida State Seminoles are favored by 10.5 points here. First round games in the NCAA Tournament with a total of above 138 have gone under the total at a nearly 60% clip in the last decade. This one fits that system.

Florida State is the tallest team in the country. It is extremely hard to get good looks inside the arc against the Seminoles. That's a problem for UNC Greensboro since they shoot 30% from long range and they rely strongly on Miller getting to the basket. Miller is a star point guard, but he is only 6'0 and I think Florida State's length will bother him.

Florida State's offense is hot and cold. If they are nailing a ton of 3's this could certainly lose, but I do think UNC Greensboro's pressure defense could give them some trouble here.

I think both teams are strong defensively and both coaches are good at putting together a good game plan to keep the opposition guessing by switching around defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Winthrop ranks 8th in the country in tempo. The Eagles are going to push the pace here. They haven't played a really good team all year. Villanova will be the best offense they have faced, even with Villanova without Gillespie at point guard.

Villanova ranks 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Yes, they are worse on offense without Gillespie. They still are far better than the teams Winthrop has been up against. This Villanova team is much weaker defensively than they have been in recent seasons as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game looks like a real slow it down defensive battle. These two teams are both elite on defense, and both of them have real question marks on offense. 

Rutgers is 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency (75th on offense). Clemson is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency (99th on offense).

Clemson has been a poor team away from home and it has been their offense that has let them down more times than not. 

I would expect a close hard fought contest where the defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Texas ranks 350th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green are extremely deliberate all of the time. This is a team that ranks 20th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense as well. 

Purdue relies heavily on post up offense (more than anyone else in the nation). The Boilermakers have a ton of size and great low post players. Because of this, Purdue is very slow paced as well and they'll use up the shot clock. North Texas is great at post defense. The Mean Green are giving up only 0.80 points per post up which ranks in the top 10 percent of all teams in the country. They should make Purdue work harder than most teams do to score in the low post.

North Texas is reliant on the outside jumper, and Purdue does defend the 3 pretty well. The Mean Green can go through long scoring droughts at times.

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is a big football dome where shooting has been a problem in the long run. This is a clear positive for the under on the whole.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys defense will be the best defense Liberty has seen all year. Mike Boynton is underrated as a defensive-minded coach. Liberty scored just 52 at TCU and 60 at Missouri. The Flames are a good offensive team, but they have played a bunch of very weak defenses in the ASun.

Oklahoma State has turnover problems on offense, and that can lead to inefficient offense at times. Liberty's defense is great on the glass. They rank 14th in defensive rebounding percentage in the country.

I fully expect Liberty Coach Ritchie McKay to have a game plan to do their very best to slow this game down to a crawl. Liberty knows they need a halfcourt game and they are excellent in transition defense. They won't go for second chance points much, they will just look to get back.

Liberty has been here before and I think they will make this game tighter than you might think. I do think Oklahoma State's length will bother their shots as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are favored by 25.5 points here. This one should be a very easy matchup for the Bears. Highly seeded teams who are favored by a wide margin have been great under bets in the past 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this makes a lot of sense because the game has virtually no chance of going to overtime and there isn't much of a chance of a late foul fest.

Baylor would be well served here to get ready for their next game which would be tricky against either UNC or Wisconsin. I think they get a big lead and then slow things down some.

Hartford is known as a scrappy tough defensive team, but they have struggled to score on everyone this year. They only scored 53 against Villanova. They had some very low scoring games even against America East competition. Hartford is a one man show (Carter) on offense, and Baylor should have a good game plan for him.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the nation this year (only Virginia has been slower). The Mountaineers are unlikely to change up their style of play here. This is a team that looks to grind things down to a halt and win with halfcourt offense and offensive rebounds.

Texas Southern has only faced a couple teams this year that really slow things down (Alabama A&M and St. Mary's. St. Mary's shot lights out in TX Southern's loss to them. Mt St. Mary's isn't a good shooting team at all and they are unlikely to be able to do that here. Texas Southern improved a lot on defense this year, and they have several good shot blockers down low. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot. This should be a sloppy game with both teams struggling with efficiency. It wouldn't surprise me to see the winner of this game in the lower 60's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have been great defensively at the end of the season. Illinois held Michigan to 53 points in their blowout win on March 2nd. The following game they held Ohio State to 68 points at home. They held Iowa to 71 points yesterday in a game played to 76 possessions. Illinois has been locked in defensively.

Ohio State will want to slow the pace down here. The Buckeyes slowed things down in a big way in their win over Michigan on Saturday. That game was played to just 61 possessions. The Buckeyes are likely to be without Kyle Young (concussion protocol), who actually has their highest offensive rating per KenPom. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is a football dome. These huge football domes have led to a lot of lower shooting percentages over the years and that has held true in this conference tournament season as well.

This is an awfully high total for a game for the Big Ten Championship and a game that is played on a neutral court that is clearly more difficult for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played their last two games to 58 and 60 possessions. That's about as slow as you see. Western Kentucky plays slightly slower than average, and the Hilltoppers game against relatively fast paced UAB was only 65 possessions on Friday. 

This is the Conference USA title game. It will be played in Frisco, Texas at the Dallas Cowboys practice stadium. This is a football dome converted over to a makeshift college hoops court for this tournament. The under has been great in this tournament in the last few years and it has done very well again this year on the whole. 

Both of these teams have some turnover problems on offense, and that should be helpful for the under. Though both teams turn it over a lot, neither of the defenses try to push the tempo very much off their forced turnovers. 

These are two teams who don't foul very much, so unless there is a ref show here we shouldn't see too many trips to the line.

Look for a tightly contested game between two teams who know this is their only shot to get to the NCAA Tournament. These final games have tended to go under the total more often than not.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's the Big East Tournament Championship game between Georgetown and Creighton. Creighton is still the good offense they have been in the past, but they are much better on defense than they were in previous seasons. 

Creighton really locked down on UConn in Friday night's semifinal win. Georgetown's offense is too reliant on a couple guards. The Hoyas also rely on getting to the line and knocking down free throws. Both of these defenses rank in the top 50 in the nation in defending without fouling. 

Georgetown tends to go through long droughts offensively. Creighton relies heavily on jump shots and Madison Square Garden is a really tough shooters gym. 

In the long run, Madison Square Garden has arguably been the best under arena in all of college hoops. The shooting percentages here have been consistently been low, and the long term under percentage on a neutral in the postseason is about 60%. Both games in the semifinals went way under the total here on Friday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays and UConn Huskies met twice in the regular season. Both of those games stayed under the total in regulation. They now go to Madison Square Garden, which has been arguably the single best under arena in college basketball. 

UConn kept running the floor and pouring it on DePaul last night, but they have slowed their pace when they play similar foes. Creighton is a very worthy opponent. I think UConn tries to win this one with their defense, which is the best in the Big East.

Creighton's defense isn't elite, but it is much better this year than it has been in the last couple seasons. They have played several low scoring games against top opponents this year too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Lucas Oil Stadium is proving to be really difficult for shooters in this Big Ten Tournament. This is a football dome turned into a basketball arena, and these spots have been great to under bettors in the past.

Wisconsin and Iowa played two slow paced games in the regular season. The first stayed under the total easily. The second went over the total late with some hot shooting in the final minutes as well as some fouling.

Iowa's Joe Wieskamp is questionable here and if he plays he is not 100 percent. He actually ranks first on the Iowa team in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* St. Peter's put up a season's best 1.23 points per possession last night. Based on this team's offensive profile throughout the season, it is unlikely they'll be able to do that again.

Fairfield and St. Peter's are the two slowest paced teams in the MAAC. Their two regular season contests finished at 105 and 115 points total and they were very slow paced games. 

This is a win or go home game at Boardwalk Hall in New Jersey. Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue in the past and I think there is a good chance the poor shooting numbers show up once again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds rank tenth in the nation in FTA/FGA. They make a living at the line. Montana State ranks 7th in the nation in the same statistic. I would expect a ton of trips to the charity stripe in this game. The spread here is set in that area where a foul fest in the final minute or two is very possible as well. That can really add to the game total late.

Southern Utah's quickness on the perimeter should be really tough for Montana State to defend. At the same time, Southern Utah has struggled defending the paint. Neither of these teams have a shot blocker.

All of the totals are getting bet down due to neutral court unders being a good strategy overall, but this isn't a bad arena for shooters and we've seen some quick whistles and very good shooting percentages in the Big Sky Tournament.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green and LA Tech Bulldogs meet in Frisco this afternoon. 

This venue has seen under after under in recent years. Last night the under went 3-1 in this football stadium turned into a strange basketball venue. 

North Texas plays at the slowest pace in the conference. LA Tech ranks number one in the conference in defensive efficiency. 

I think we see a grinder here between two very solid teams who are looking to punch their spot in the CUSA title game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Ohio State Buckeyes met twice in the regular season. Purdue won both of those games. The Boilermakers won 67-60 at home and 67-65 at Ohio State. 

Lucas Oil Stadium is a football field first and foremost, and these huge football domes converted over to basketball courts have been good for unders in the long run. The shooting numbers in the Big Ten Tournament thus far have been very low.

Ohio State nearly blew their game against Minnesota yesterday. There were 26 points scored in the last 1:35 of that game. 

Purdue prefers a slow paced game unlike Minnesota. The Boilermakers and Buckeyes have played several very slow paced games in a row over the last few years.

Both teams are capable of shooting it well, but with a high total, slow pace, and this being in a football stadium.. this is an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs have been one of the best defenses in CUSA for many years. They started the season out playing much worse defense than expected, but Coach Jones has helped turn this team into a much better defense late in the year.

North Texas is a strong defensive team. They also play at the slowest pace of any team in the league. The Mean Green are very good at getting a lead and then slowing the pace down to a crawl. They are favored here, and I do think they have a good chance at winning this one.

This game is played in Frisco, Texas. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice stadium and there will be two games going on at once. The game setup here has led to some very low totals in recent years. It is a clear boost for the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls offense is inefficient. They rely on offensive rebounds and three pointers for most of their points. The Louisiana Tech defenses ranks first in CSUA in defensive rebounding and in 3 point percentage defense.

Louisiana Tech ranks first in the league in defensive efficiency overall. Late in the season they have been stellar on the defensive end. LA Tech has been inconsistent on offense. They have been much better offensively at home, but they are on a neutral court here.

This game is played in Frisco, Texas. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice stadium and there will be two games going on at once. The game setup here has led to some very low totals in recent years. It is a clear boost for the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Big East Tournament takes place in Madison Square Garden. Neutral site games in the postseason have gone under the total at Madison Square Garden in almost exactly 60% of games in the last ten years. 

DePaul tries to play quickly, but they are very inefficient on offense. The Blue Demons are up against the best defense in the Big East here. UConn's length and athleticism should really bother them.

UConn's offense has been hot and cold. In their first game playing at MSG, I think their shooting percentages are likely to be below average.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City has been a great under venue. This is a tough shooting backdrop where we have already seen some extremely low scoring games in the MAAC Tournament since they have moved to this site in recent years. 

St. Peter's is arguably the best defense in the MAAC. They also do a great job slowing the pace down. The Peacocks do a great job on the defensive glass, and they don't give up much of anything near the hoop. 

Rider typically wants to run, but St. Peter's has shown the ability to slow them down in recent matchups. 

This is a win or go home game on a very favorable floor for unders. A very sloppy game is likely.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tulsa and Tulane have met three times since Ron Hunter has taken over at Tulane. In those 3 contests the final scores have been: 67-54, 62-57, and then this year's contest was 58-48. Three games that went comfortably under this very low total. 

Tulsa hasn't shown the ability to score on this unique zone of Tulane at a high rate. Tulane's offense is terrible in the halfcourt, and Tulsa's transition defense is very good. 

Both of these teams are very capable of a lot of wasted possessions with bad turnovers on offense. The two defenses aren't very good at converting turnovers into quick points though.

I think we see another tight game that is low scoring all the way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Gillespie is a huge loss for this Villanova team. Moore is also doubtful here for the Wildcats, and that is another key piece to the puzzle missing. Villanova's offense looked terrible against Providence without these guys. They will probably be a little better here, but I don't see them being nearly as efficient as they were most of the year.

Georgetown's defense has gotten stronger late in the season. The Hoyas have pretty good length and they are very athletic.

Madison Square Garden is the site of this game, and this is a great under arena. That alone is worth a few points on the total. This is an early tipoff which is a plus as well. The long term trends point to unders on neutral courts being strong and the early games going to the under even more.

Villanova likely slows this game down and neither team is likely to be terribly efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers and Butler Bulldogs have played twice this year. The final total in those two games was 123 and 124 points.

Butler is the worst offensive rebounding team in the Big East. Xavier is the second worst in offensive rebounding in the Big East. Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass. Neither team gets to the line much either.

This game is played at Madison Square Garden, where the under has been a terrific bet in the long run. The shooting backdrop here is really tough and there won't be many people at all in attendance. 

Butler will slow the pace down here, and Xavier's offense has been inefficient down the stretch. Butler's offense has been very weak all year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgetown Hoyas and Marquette Golden Eagles meet in the first round of the Big East Tournament on Wednesday.

Madison Square Garden is the site for this game. MSG is a long term proven great under arena. The under is an impressive 63-41 in neutral site postseason games at MSG in the last 104. The shooting backdrop here is a tough one. It's a massive arena, and there won't be many people at all here.

Marquette plays very slowly and they have done a good job controlling the tempo this year. Georgetown does play quicker, but they are very inefficient on offense. If their long range jumpers start falling this could go over, but playing at Madison Square Garden for the first time makes the likelihood of them getting hot lower.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jackson State Tigers have played the Pine Bluff Golden Lions twice this year. The final totals were 123 and 122 points. The second game that finished at 122 points went into overtime and still finished that low. 

Jackson State is the best defense in the SWAC, and it isn't even close. Pine Bluff plays at the slowest pace of any team in the SWAC, and they are very offensively challenged.

This being a neutral site game between two very inefficient offenses makes it fit into a system play for me (bad teams on a neutral site go the under at a high rate long term). 

Look for another ugly game between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison play at the second slowest tempo in the Summit League. North Dakota has been very good at controlling the pace over the last few years. 

Taking teams who have been playing day after day to go under the total has been a good system. Teams who have both played in at least two of the last three days and are playing again today are 117-75 to the under since 2006. That is the case here.

This game means a lot to both teams obviously since the winner of this one goes to the NCAA Tournament. 

Oral Roberts takes a ton of 3's, and North Dakota State is the best 3 point defense in the Summit League. North Dakota State is #1 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage as well. Both games between these two in the regular season were played to a slow pace, but one became a foul fest late and went slightly past this total. The other finished at 115 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams just played each other twice at the end of the regular season. One of the games finished right at this total, and then the final game went over this total easily. Those games meant next to nothing to these teams. That isn't the case here. This is a win or go home game. 

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the past. Both of these teams like to play slowly and they are better on defense than they are on offense. 

These two played at Boardwalk Hall in the conference tournament last year and the final was 61-43. These two also played in the first game of the conference tournament in 2019 and the final was 57-53. There is a history of ugly very low scoring games against each other.

I look for the defenses to have the upper hand in this game. Look for a very slow pace and some bad shooting percentages.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have turned into a really good under team in the last half of the season. In Maryland's last 11 games, only two of them have gone over 131 points. 

Maryland played Penn State in Happy Valley a month ago and lost 55-50. That was a game played to Maryland's prefer pace (slow). 

Penn State has been inconsistent on offense. They rely on too many low quality long jumpers. Maryland has been good defensively of late and the Terrapins have a lot of length that can bother Penn State.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Oral Roberts and North Dakota played twice in the regular season. Those two games finished at 143 and 131 points. 

This game is played at the Sanford Center. This has been a very good under arena in the long run. The shooting backdrop here isn't an easy one. 

The Summit League has a bunch of good offenses, but these teams rely on jump shots a lot. In these win or go home games in a difficult venue those can be tougher to knock down.

The regular season games both stayed under and now we get a much higher total in a crucial game for both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs got into the final with a last second win over Missouri State yesterday. Missouri State is a quality offenses, but they aren't very good on defense. Drake now goes on to face the best defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola Chicago can really lock teams down defensively.

These teams played a back to back in mid-February. The first game was 81-54 Loyola and the second was 51-50 Drake (in overtime). The pace in both games was extremely slow. I wouldn't expect anything different here. 

Enterprise Center is a tremendous under venue. The opening total has stayed under almost 67% of the time here in the past 15 years. 

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass and they don't foul much. Those are good combinations for an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens have had their last eight games canceled because of COVID. They haven't played a game in more than a month. Hofstra has had less trouble, but they still haven't been able to play a game since February 14th. Two teams off COVID pauses. 

Now these two teams must go play on a neutral court at 11 am eastern in a game that is win or go home. 

Neutral court unders have done really well in conference tournaments in the long run. Early games on neutral courts have done slightly better than the neutral court games overall.

Both games between these two in the regular season were under this and this particular matchup means a lot more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies defense is extremely tough to get open looks against. Fresno State has shown that they have a very hard time against the top defenses. Fresno doesn't move without the ball well at all. 

Utah State may be without their best shooter (Miller) again in this game. That gave them trouble in their last contest against a weak Wyoming defense. Fresno State is a big step up defensively from Wyoming.

The earlier game between these two was very low scoring and played at a very slow pace.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a Summit League Tournament game. These games are played at Sanford Pentagon, which has been a good under venue in the past.

This is an extremely high total for two teams who aren't all that fast paced. This is a conference where there is a lot of scoring in the regular season, but in past years that has led to unders being valuable in the postseason. I think that is the case again here. Things should tighten up when the game means more.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Grand Canyon Antelopes have consistently controlled the pace of the game and played very low scoring contests, especially on their home floor. In conference play, Grand Canyon's home games have finished with the following amount of total points: 132, 118, 132, 127, and 114 points. 

Utah Valley is more efficient on offense at home, but quite a few of their road games they have struggled shooting the basketball. They got a bunch of offensive rebounds yesterday, but since Grand Canyon is good on the defensive glass normally, I would expect those rebounding issued to be cleared up for Grand Canyon today.

These are the top two teams in the league in the standings in the final regular season game. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and the Morehead State Eagles meet tonight for a chance at the big dance. Morehead State is the best defense in the OVC. Belmont is the second best defense in the OVC. 

These final games in the small conferences at a neutral site have been great under moneymakers in the long run. In fact, the under is 60% exactly on the closing line at non power five conferences in the final game.

The game should slow down and the defense tighten up.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is the final regular season game for both of these teams. Both teams have proven they prefer to run and gun when given the chance. They certainly did it against each other last night. 

Last night it was 89-85. I think we'll see a high score again here. UC San Diego shoots a bunch of 3's, and if they are missing this game could certainly go under. However, Fullerton is a poor defensive team especially against those long range jumpers.

CS Fullerton is the second fastest paced team in this league and they have had a bunch of high scoring games.

This game means little to these teams and that generally helps scoring especially late in the season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels renew their rivalry on Saturday night. The first game this year went way over the posted total. I don't expect this game to be that high scoring, but I do like the over here.

The biggest reason is both teams are tremendous on the offensive glass. There should be a bunch of second chance scoring opportunities for both teams. That often leads to easy layups or fouls and free throw attempts. 

Additionally, both Duke and UNC have been good at forcing turnovers this year, and they both are great at scoring in transition. Quick turnovers and easy scores or fouls will also help the over in this one.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Elon's offense has struggled all season. This is a team that shoots a bunch of 3 pointers, and they haven't been good at all at them. They now go to play at a neutral court site where shooting is more of an issue.

Towson's offense is very weak. The Tigers rely heavily on offensive rebounding to get their points, but Elon is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.

Two under .500  teams playing on a neutral court has been a strong under angle in the past decade. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* East Tennessee State and Chattanooga played twice in the regular season. The pace was extremely slow in both games. The first game was played to just 61 possessions and both teams shot far above their season averages to finish at 132 points. The second game was 60 possessions and the final score was 53-51. 

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under. These win or go home games on neutral sites in conference tournaments have been very good under bets for many years. There hasn't been a big adjustment made to the number here. 

Both teams like to play slow and neither does very much fouling. Look for a close low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers have the best defense in the Missouri Valley Conference, and it isn't even close. Indiana State won 53-43 over Evansville yesterday in a game that featured a very slow pace and terrible shooting.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. The opening total has stayed under almost exactly 67% of the time in games played here in the past 15 years.

Look for another very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Samford has been on a COVID pause to end the season. They aren't expected to be at full strength here.

These two teams met twice in the regular season. Both games went to overtime. Even after overtime one of the games was under this number. At the end of regulation, the two games were 59-59 and 66-66. 

Mercer has slowed their pace down drastically in the last ten games. This was a team who was happy to run and gun early on. That hasn't been the case lately. Mercer has had only one game in their last 11 games go over this total in regulation, and it was only 151 points. That included games against The Citadel and Western Carolina. 

Samford has been extremely inefficient on offense down the stretch. They'll try to force the pace, but they aren't good shooters. Samford has scored 66 points or less in regulation in their last five games. 

Neither team has gotten to the line much in league play.

Being played on a neutral court is a clear positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago played in the final two games of the regular season. Those two games both finished regulation at 112 points.

Southern Illinois shot the ball well last night, but Lance Brown was injured and may be unable to play today. That's a key injury for the Salukis. They now go against the best defense in the conference.

Loyola Chicago's last four games have finished regulation at 90 points, 106 points, 112 points, and 112 points.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is Arch Madness for the Missouri Valley Conference. This has been arguably the single best under venue in the country in the past decade. On the opening total, the under has hit at a little better than 65% in neutral site games played at Enterprise Center in the past ten years. Even on the closing line (which is usually lower by a good amount the under has hit better than 60% of the time). 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams just played the final two games of the regular season against each other. In general we have seen in the long run that teams matching up a bunch of times close together tends to lead to a bit slower paced games and better defense. Familiarity with what the opposition is doing is the main reason.

Illinois State isn't good at all on offense. They have been inefficient on offense all year. Northern Iowa started the year playing fast, but they have slowed down a bit in recent weeks. 

This game is win or go home and I would expect that to slow the pace down a bit as well.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is Arch Madness for the Missouri Valley Conference. This has been arguably the single best under venue in the country in the past decade. On the opening total, the under has hit at a little better than 65% in neutral site games played at Enterprise Center in the past ten years. Even on the closing line (which is usually lower by a good amount the under has hit better than 60% of the time). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bradley is playing shorthanded. They had their stars a few weeks ago when these two teams met, but now they are much more limited on offense and that has led them to slow their pace down some. 

Southern Illinois hasn't had a total finish higher than 135 in their last seven games, so they very rarely have a high scoring contest. With this being a win or go home game, it isn't likely either of these teams will speed their pace up here.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is Arch Madness for the Missouri Valley Conference. This has been arguably the single best under venue in the country in the past decade. On the opening total, the under has hit at a little better than 65% in neutral site games played at Enterprise Center in the past ten years. Even on the closing line (which is usually lower by a good amount the under has hit better than 60% of the time). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Alabama Crimson Tide are first in the SEC in tempo, and isn't even close. Auburn is third, and Bruce Pearl's teams are certainly not known for trying to change up their scheme to slow the game down.

Alabama won the first meeting this year between these two by a score of 94-90. That game was played to a ridiculously fast pace of 88 possessions. Alabama uses a lot of pressure in the full court and tries to create transition scoring opportunities. The biggest weakness of this Auburn offense is their trouble taking care of the basketball. That should create easy scoring chances for Alabama off the turnovers.

Alabama takes a bunch of three pointers, and this Auburn defense is only mediocre at defending beyond the arc. 

Both teams are better on the offensive glass than on the defensive glass. 

The last three times these teams have met the pace has been extremely fast. I don't expect this to be any different.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs rank fourth in the country in tempo. Gonzaga pushes the pace every single game. Loyola Marymount has sped up quite a bit compared to their pace a year ago. While they might prefer to play quite a bit slower than Gonzaga here, I don't think they will have much of a choice. Gonzaga is likely to jump out to a big lead early and force Marymount to run when far behind.

Both of these teams are great at getting to the free throw line. Expect plenty of points from the charity stripe in this game. 

Gonzaga gets to the hoop and scores at an extremely high efficiency rate. Loyola Marymount lacks the shot blockers to slow them down.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pacific Tigers host San Francisco in a West Coast Conference matchup on Saturday night. 

Pacific has had a lot of terrible offensive performances in the last few weeks. The Tigers have scored 52 points or less in three of their last nine games. The Tigers play at a very slow pace, and they are good at controlling the tempo against just about everyone. 

San Francisco just had a high scoring game against BYU that was misleading. The game was played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions, but both teams were extremely efficient on offense. Barcello for BYU was 7/7 from 3 point range in that game. Pacific's offense is far weaker than BYU's, and they play much slower as well.

I think this total is too high by several points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMKC Kangaroos are the best under team in the Summit League. With Billy Donlon as their head coach, this team is doing a fantastic job controlling the tempo. This offense is a weak one, but their defense is easily best in the Summit League. They are giving up only 0.938 points per possession in league play.

South Dakota State won last night's game easily, but the pace was still slow and it stayed far under the total. This game is likely to be similar. I do think it will be higher than last night, but we have quite a bit of room to work here. 

Both of these teams are excellent defensive rebounding teams, which is a big plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met earlier this year and the final total was 166 points. Tennessee State has picked up their tempo in a significant way over the last few weeks. 

Eastern Kentucky is the fastest paced team in this league, and it isn't even close. With their full court pressure they can create a bunch of quick scoring opportunities. 

The pace of this game should be fast enough that it will take some ugly shooting numbers to stay under this number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* High Point and USC Upstate have had five games in the last two seasons. None of them have finished with a total higher than 132 points. 

High Point and USC Upstate are both relatively slow paced teams. Both are also inefficient on offense. They have consistently been low scoring and sloppy in their games against each other.

This is a Big South Tournament game. The loser of this game goes home and their season is over. That kind of situation has tended to lean toward the under in the long run since the game usually slows down a bit and the defenses work very hard in such a big game for them.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies are the best defense in the Big East. UConn has elite shot blockers and they will change the game here. Marquette was only able to put up 54 at home against UConn earlier this year (65-54 game). 

UConn prefers a slow pace as does Marquette. The first game between these two was played to only 60 possessions. This one is likely to be a little faster than that, but I expect it to be played in the halfcourt most of the time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wisconsin has had two games in the Big Ten all season go over this number. The Badgers are excellent at controlling the pace of play. They aren't very good on offense either. This team has some identity problems on the offensive end. They simply don't have many go to guys and they don't have the ability to get inside the paint often at all.

Illinois played without star Ayo Dosunmu in their last game and most believe he will miss this game or be very limited. The Fighting Illini offense is definitely far different without him. It would likely slow their pace as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under has been a great play in Clemson's games as a home favorite in the past. Brad Brownell's teams don't tend to run up the score, and if they do it is usually by clamping down on defense rather than pushing the pace and scoring a huge number.

Miami is extremely limited offensively right now. The Hurricanes have suffered a bunch of injuries and some key players have left the team as well. I don't expect them to have much luck against this Clemson defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* DePaul has been without Javon Liberty Freeman for the last three games. In two of those three games they have scored 52 and 53 points. DePaul is actually a pretty good team defensively, but their offense has been so inefficient this year that it has been an ugly season.

Georgetown is much better defensively this year than they were a year ago. The Hoyas offense is weak without Mac McClung. This Hoyas team relies on too many low percentage long range jumpers.

The move up in this total makes me take the under based on how far this is from my number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs won 67-64 over UNLV on Wednesday night. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 60 possessions. Both teams actually shot considerably better than their season averages, and the game still finished at 131 points. 

There are a couple key things that will be tough to replicate for these offenses from the first game. Both offenses got a lot of offensive rebounds. These two teams are usually very good on the defensive boards (both around 25% offensive rebounds allowed). In Wednesday's game they allowed 35.1% and 33.3% offensive rebounds. Also the two teams turned the ball over at 11.7% And 10.0%. For the season these two teams have turned it over at 19.4% and 21.7%. Expect some more wasted possessions in this game.

The tempo should stay slow and the efficiencies should be lower on the offensive end.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners last 14 games, their highest posted point total has been 136.5 points. This one sits four points above that total, and to me this is just too high of a number for a game involving Bakersfield.

This is a Bakersfield team that has seen 7 of their last 14 games finish at 119 points or fewer. They have very rarely had very high scoring games this year. Now, they are without star big man Stith and he is a big loss on the offensive glass and scoring down low for this team. 

CSU Northridge is a fast paced team and they'll try to push the pace here. Bakersfield has been good at slowing things down this year though. Bakersfield is easily slowest in tempo in the Big West. 

Northridge isn't very efficient on offense. Bakersfield's Taze Moore missed last weekend's games due to an illness. He will likely be back here but he might not be 100 percent. 

Take the under.