Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have committed themselves to playing extremely fast and using full court pressure even more this year. Arkansas State is using only 14.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. That is 14th quickest in the country. 

Arkansas State has two major problems on defense that both help scoring. Arkansas State can't grab defensive rebounds, and they do a bunch of fouling. 

UNC Wilmington wants to push the pace as well, and Wilmington has been a team that fouls a bunch the last couple seasons as well. The Seahawks do turn the ball over a lot and I would expect Arkansas State to get plenty of easy looks in transition here.

An up and down game with both teams getting to the line often. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Marshall will push the pace about as well as anyone in the country. Dan D'Antoni's team has great guards who can push the pace and get into the lane and kick it out to open 3 point shooters. 

Marshall was much better defensively last year because of Penava and his shot blocking ability, but he is gone now. I think Marshall will be worse on the interior defensively this year. 

Maryland has tried to run when they can so far this year, but they haven't played any teams who want to run with them. The Terrapins haven't played a team who ranks in the top 170 in the country in tempo so far this season. That all changes here. Marshall ranks 4th in overall tempo.

An up and down game. Maryland should get on the offensive glass here and get a lot of second chance opportunities here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines offense should slip slightly this year without Wagner, but their defense may be even better than last season. The Wolverines are easily first in the nation so far this year in both effective field goal percentage and points allowed per possession (0.868). This is a team that can really clamp down on the opposition.

Michigan is a team that does a great job slowing the game down. Chattanooga wants to play slowly with Lamont Paris as their head coach (a former Bo Ryan associate at Wisconsin). This game should be played very slowly.

Michigan has only had one game all year above 119 points total. Chattanooga is averaging only 54 points per game in their last 3 contests, and that was against S Alabama, Jacksonville, and SE Missouri State. They should have a very hard time scoring here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have decided to pick up the tempo this year. BYU strayed from their normal strategy of running last year, and it wasn't a good fit for the offense. They are back to running again this year. 

Rice is going to push the tempo as much as possible under Scott Pera. In fact, they rank 48th in the nation so far this year in shortest average possession length. BYU ranks 40th in that same statistic. 

BYU has shot a really poor percentage from 3 point range so far this year, but I expect positive regression there. Rice's defense is a clear weakness.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't understand the line move here. For many years both Texas State and Cal Poly have been very slow paced teams. They have both faced some very fast paced opponents in the early going this year, and that has skewed their numbers in the early going. I expect both of these teams to end up being similar to what they have been in past years. Both still have the same coaching staffs.

Cal Poly settles for long range jumpers and very rarely gets to the free throw line. Texas State is great at forcing turnovers, but they turn it over a lot themselves as well.

I capped this one in the low 130's. Of course these teams could shoot a really high percentage and get over this number, but I think the odds are good of this one staying under. I'll fade the early line move.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Total Domination* The Wright State Raiders have played 4 games against Division I teams so far this year. Three of their four opponents have been very fast paced teams who are weak on the defensive end. The final totals in those games were very high and that has contributed to this number being inflated. Wright State scored only 54 against a Murray State defense that is good.

Penn State lost Tony Carr and Shep Garner from last year's team. Those two were the team's best outside shooters. Penn State is lacking in firepower on the offensive end this season. I expect them to continue to play very good defense. So far this year, Penn State is allowing only 0.916 points per possession, which is 11th in the country. 

This game is played at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya and the under is 21-11 in the last 32 games played there. This fits the angles of early neutral site contests being 56% to the under in the last ten years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips are trying to slow the game down. John Groce said that right now they don't have enough athleticism across the board. That is making them try to slow the game down and make it a half court battle. 

Clemson's defense ranked #7 in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. The Tigers have a great defense under the leadership of Brad Brownell. 

Both teams aren't good on the offensive glass, so their should be fewer second chance opportunities than in a normal contest.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* Kansas State just played a game against Eastern Kentucky, who is pushing the pace to an extreme this year. That made for a very high scoring game. That game has pushed this number up. Penn isn't going to play that way. The Quakers are far more deliberate. Bruce Weber's Wildcats prefer to play slowly as well. Both of these teams are above average defensively.

Penn has played against a couple very fast paced teams early in the year as well. This is a case of recency bias helping push the total several points higher.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

This game is played at Virgin Islands Sport Fitness Center- where the under is a whopping 42-21 all time. Many players have talked about this being a tough shooting backdrop.

This total should be in the upper 130's. 

Take the under here. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tacko Fall is an imposing player in the middle of the UCF zone defense. UCF can really force teams to slow things down with their zone pushed out and a shot blocker in the middle of the paint down low. 

Western Kentucky has a very good defensive big men in Bassey now as well. The Hilltoppers should be significantly better on defense this year than they were last season.

In each of the last two seasons, both of these teams ranked in the top 25 in the country in defending without fouling. Both have been good at grabbing defensive boards as well.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers are always going to work really hard on the defensive end for Cuonzo Martin, but this team is limited when it comes to offensive firepower this year. Injuries have hit this team hard already this year. Missouri prefers to play slowly as well.

Oregon State likes to play at a slow pace also. The Beavers don't have many good options outside of Tres Tinkle, and I would expect Missouri's defense to key in on him in this one.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

This game is played at Virgin Islands Sport Fitness Center- where the under is a whopping 42-21 all time. Many players have talked about this being a tough shooting backdrop.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* I've isolated Weber State as a team to look for value on overs with this year. Coach Randy Rahe said he wants this team to play faster than any of his previous teams. Weber State has listened so far this year. In yesterday's game against San Jose State, they played to a pace of 81 possessions, which is blazing fast.

Central Michigan is always happy to run under Keno Davis. Two years ago they finished fifth in the nation in pace of play. Last year they were in the middle of the pack, but they were much better on the offensive end than on defense.

Both of these teams will want to run, and both of these teams have been good at getting to the free throw line. 

Look for a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State has shown us what they are in the early season period this year. They are going to look to slow the game down drastically and keep it close with low possessions and decent defense. They don't have the scoring firepower to keep up with very many teams.

Kennesaw State only scored 41 points against Kansas State. They then scored only 60 points against a terrible Samford defense. 

Missouri still has a lot of issues to work out on offense, but this team will be very good on defense under Coach Cuonzo Martin. Missouri was 16th in the country in effective field goal percentage last year. They prefer to play at a slow pace.

This game is played in the Virgin Islands in a gym with a poor shooting backdrop. This gym has been great to under bettors in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Miami are both teams who have wanted to slow the pace down under their current coaches. North Dakota State lost some very good offensive talent from a year ago. Miami's coaching staff has talked about their improved ability to guard at length in the offseason. 

I would expect both of these teams to rank in the bottom 100 (out of 353) in pace of play at the end of the season. With a total this high and on a neutral floor early in the season I like the under value here.

These early season tournaments on neutral sites have been very good to under bettors. In a sample size of more than 1,800 games, the under sits at 55.5% when the total is 134 points or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies have the makings of a really good team in the Big Sky Conference this year. Montana has shot blockers at the back of the defense, and they have perimeter defenders who will be all over the ball handlers. 

Incarnate Word is likely to have a lot of trouble scoring this year. They have played 3 teams who aren't Division I this year, and they are averaging 66 points per game in those contests. They scored a miserable 37 points in a loss to Texas Tech as well. They are looking to slow the game down this year.

These early season tournaments on neutral sites have been very good to under bettors. In a sample size of more than 1,800 games, the under sits at 55.5% when the total is 134 points or higher. 

This game starts extra early and is in the Bahamas. A weird spot for youngsters and in the long run this type of thing helps the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nevada always wants to run the floor. The Wolf Pack have athleticism at every spot on the floor and they are going to be tremendous on offense this year. The efficiency of this team on the offensive end should be among the best in the nation.

The key to this wager is BYU and their change in style of play. They decided to try slowing the game down last year and winning with defense. It didn't fit their personnel well. Dave Rose has a new primary assistant coach in Quincy Lewis. He is well-known for his uptempo systems. BYU local beat writers have all sorts of articles in the local newspapers about the change in pace and all the players are saying they are excited to get back to what they use to do (running). 

All kinds of fast pace basketball.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers hired a Virginia assistant coach (Ron Sanchez) to take over their job. Everyone knows Virginia plays extremely slowly, and that's what Charlotte will try to do this year as well. The 49ers have played really fast under previous coach Mark Price. It will be a big adjustment to this offense, and I think they'll be pretty inefficient in this system for a while.

Chattanooga has a coach who previously coached under Bo Ryan. That means he wants to value the ball and slow the game down. The Mocs weren't very good on defense last year, but they have improved shot blockers in the low post this year and I see their defensive numbers improving quite a bit.

A slow tempo for a number this high.

Take the under. 

*3 NCAA BB Championship Game CASH* The Villanova Wildcats shot the lights out on Saturday at the Alamodome. I had the under in that one and lost thanks to their sharpshooting. Kansas' defense was very weak in that game, and the Wildcats buried a bunch of open three-point jumpers. 

Villanova is certainly capable of shooting the ball really well against anyone. This is unquestionably the best offense in the country. Still, this is a neutral court and they are playing against a team that ranks number 3 in KenPomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings. Michigan has the highest ranked defense Villanova has played against all year.

Every number I ran for this one had the total at 141.5 or 142. It's very rare for totals to be higher than my projections in the NCAA Tournament with neutral sites tending to be a fairly big positive for the under. 

This number is higher because of the great shooting from Villanova on Saturday. I'll look to play back on the under after this inflation of the number.

Xavier Simpson is a good defender for Michigan and the Wolverines should be able to put a lot more pressure on the ball and defend the 3 point line a lot better than Kansas. 

The Wolverines are 324th in overall tempo and Villanova is middle of the pack. This game shouldn't be played very fast. 

Both teams do a great job defending without fouling and neither team gets many offensive rebounds.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are good offenses. They both clearly have the potential to score a lot of points. This is a huge game though, with the winner set to play for a national title, and this kind of a total is often hard to get to in a game of this magnitude.

Villanova has only allowed one team to score more than 1 point per possession against them in the NCAA Tournament (West Virginia averaged 1.03 points per possession). Jay Wright has said of late that he has been extremely happy with the progress his team has made defensively.

Kansas played their best defensive game of the year last game against Duke. The Jayhawks aren't great on defense, but they are likely better than their numbers on the season would suggest.

Both teams rarely get to the line and both teams rarely foul. If the jump shots aren't falling as much as normal, this one should be lower scoring than expected. This is played in the Alamodome which is a very unique shooters backdrop.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Texas and San Francisco play game three of a series to win the College Basketball Invitational. This is a unique format and this game is for all the marbles.

Early in these smaller postseason tournaments, the over has had great value through the years. That isn't the case late in the tournament though. Why? These teams want to be here now, and they want to win the tournament.

The under is 47-26 in the last 73 games in the semifinals or finals of the NIT/CBI/CIT Tournaments. 

These two teams both excel at getting defensive rebounds, so second chance opportunities should be hard to come by. They both shoot a lot of 3 pointers, and both defenses are very good against the 3 ball.

This line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Utah/Penn State NIT CASH* The Utah Utes and Penn State Nittany Lions meet on Thursday night in the NIT Finale. 

Penn State's defense ranks 18th overall in defensive efficiency in the country. Utah ranks 55th in defensive efficiency for the year, but if you look only at recent games Utah's defense has been much better than that.

Utah's average length of possession puts them 320th out of 351 in tempo, so they are very slow. Penn State is 248th in that same statistic. The tempo should stay slow here, and both defenses will be plenty motivated.

The NIT is played at Madison Square Garden which is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop here, and the numbers prove it.

In the NIT semifinals/finals- totals of 129.5 or higher have gone 26-7 to the under against the closing line.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NIT is a tournament where we've seen a ton of overs through the years, but once you get late in the tournament things change drastically. Earlier in the tournament, many of the teams aren't very interested. Once you get to the semifinals, the teams who are there are plenty motivated to win the whole thing. 

Also of note is the fact that this game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under arena in the country. 

In the NIT Semifinals/Finals- the under is 24-7 in the last 31 games with a total of 130 or higher. 

Madison Square Garden unders are at about 60% in all neutral site games in college basketball in the last ten seasons. 

Penn State and Mississippi State are both teams who are significantly better on defense than offense. Look for this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils have switched to the zone, and it has worked very well. Duke's defense now ranks eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Since they switched to the zone, they have been top five in the country defensively. 

Syracuse ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Orange use that excellent matchup zone to keep opponents uncomfortable. The Orange are also slowing the game down more than ever in the NCAA Tournament. All 3 of their games have paced to 60 possessions. 

Syracuse relies heavily on getting to the line to get some offensive production. Duke is first in the nation when it comes to defending without fouling. 

The under in the Sweet 16 overall since 2005 is 56-46. The under when a team is favored by 7.5 or more is 17-7. Duke is favored big here, and they do a nice job slowing the game down when they have a big lead late.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Villanova Wildcats were easily the best offense in the nation this year. Villanova is averaging a whopping 1.276 points per possession on the season. Villanova has a wealth of long range shooters. They have five guys who put up a ton of 3's and all of them shoot 39.1% or better from long range.

West Virginia this year is the best offense Bob Huggins has had since coming to West Virginia. They rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency. Jevon Carter is a big reason why. Carter shoots 40% from long range and 86% from the line. Daxter Miles has become a nice offensive player as well. 

West Virginia is much weaker on defense this year than they have been the last two years. They are 300th out of 351 teams in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense. West Virginia also fouls at one of the 15 highest rates in the country. Villanova shoots 40.2% from long range and 77.4% from the free throw line. Barring a rare off night shooting, Nova should put up quite a few points here.

Villanova's defense has typically been top five in the nation of late, but they are 20th this year. West Virginia should get a lot of second chances against a Nova frontline that doesn't have as much bulk. 

West Virginia will keep using the press to push the pace, and I think this one goes over the number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels have been one of my favorite under teams in the last few seasons. Randy Bennett's team plays the same style of basketball every year. They are a very slow paced team who is extremely efficient on offense and solid on defense. 

St. Mary's ranks 341st out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They will slow this game down. 

Washington has struggled offensively this year. This is a team that shoots a lot of contested jumpers. Washington averages 1.064 points per possession at home. They average only 0.945 points per possession on the road. The Huskies zone defense is unique and St. Mary's has been slightly less efficient against zones than man to man defense this year.

I expect St. Mary's to win this game and the spread suggests a fairly comfortable win. If that is the case, it helps the under. The Gaels are excellent at slowing the game down when they have a lead in the second half.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are very good at controlling the pace of the game. Michigan is 332nd in the nation in tempo. The Wolverines are 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. It is their improvement on defense that has made this team so much better this year.

Michigan is elite (top 3 in the country) in transition defense. Houston tries to get points in transition, but those should be a lot harder to come by here than normal. The Cougars typically take advantage of offensive rebounds as well, but Michigan is very good on the defensive boards.

Neither team is very good at getting to the free throw line, and I've noticed that refs have in general had a slower whistle in the NCAA Tournament than in the regular season. 

Both teams like to utilize big men at the top of the key as a passer, but both defenses have athletic big men to matchup with them well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils zone defense has been tremendous. Since they moved to that zone, Duke has been a great under team. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to adjust to their slowing teams down so much better on the defensive end. 

Rhode Island has had major problems shooting it from outside down the stretch. They shot only 35.4% from long range for the year. They shot 32.5% from three point range in A 10 action this year. 

Rhode Island is good when using full court pressure at slowing the game down with zone pressure. Look for them to extend that pressure to try to slow Duke's offense some here. Duke has committed an unexpectedly high number of turnovers on the year. 

Duke doesn't foul on defense. The Blue Devils are 2nd in the country at defending without fouling. 

Rhode Island's pressure should create turnovers here, and Duke's zone should force Rhode Island into a lot of bad looks in halfcourt sets.

This is played at a neutral site. When Duke has been favored by 9 or more and the total is 142 or higher in the last 10 years- the under has cashed at 59%.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Butler Bulldogs square off in what should be a really good game on Friday afternoon. Arkansas always looks to run, while Butler plays at a moderate pace, but these two teams are more similar than you would think.

Both of these teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Arkansas is 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are 100th in defensive efficiency. Butler is 296th in the nation at defending beyond the 3 point line, and Arkansas is shooting better than 40% from the 3 point line on the year. 

Arkansas is great in transition on offense, and they are also poor in transition defense. Butler uses a lot of cutters in their halfcourt sets, and Arkansas has struggled on defense against offenses that use similar plays.

Butler is great at the free throw line at 77%. Arkansas fouls at one of the highest rates in the country. 

Look for the offenses to have the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers have a very good coach in Ron Hunter. Hunter has his team playing an excellent zone defense. According to Synergy, the Georgia State zone ranks among the top 10% of zone defenses played in the country this year.

Cincinnati is second in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats contest everything well, and Georgia State isn't going to get a bunch of open looks from 3 point range like they usually get in league play. 

Georgia State isn't likely to speed the game up when they are packing in a zone and trying to make Cincinnati beat them over the top. Cincinnati ranks 322nd overall in tempo in the country. 

Cincinnati and Georgia State have both played some very low scoring games on neutral courts so far this season. Neutral courts and a lot on the line are usually good for unders. Bridgestone Arena hosts this one, and this is probably the best under venue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament because of a tricky shooting backdrop. The under is 36-26 in the last 62 at Bridgestone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars play in an American Athletic Conference where nearly no one is willing to run with them. Houston wants to play quickly, and they'll get the chance here against San Diego State. 

San Diego State Coach Brian Dutcher made it a point of emphasis for the team to play quickly this year. The Aztecs rank 70th in shortest average possession length in the country. They will look to push in this one.

Houston is excellent on the offensive glass, and San Diego State hasn't played many teams who are good on the offensive glass. I expect Houston to create plenty of second chance opportunities.

Both defenses are pretty solid, but their numbers may look a bit better than they actually are because they don't play against many good offenses in their league. 

I think the pace will be there and this line is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have gotten much better defensively late in the season. Mark Few expressed concern about their defense midway through the year, and the defense improved in a big way near the end of the year. Gonzaga has plenty of athleticism and length to contest jumpers. 

UNC Greensboro plays a very unique zone press that is designed to slow the game down. They will look to make Gonzaga take a lot of time getting the ball up court, and prevent transition baskets. According to Synergy, UNC Greensboro is the number one ranked transition defense in the country. Since Gonzaga gets a bunch of baskets in transition normally, this should give them some trouble.

This game is played at 11:30 am local time, and that is a help for the under as well, especially on a neutral site.

Look for this one to be a little sloppier than expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense is reliant on being able to get to the line. Washington takes a lot of bad jump shots, and if they aren't getting to the free throw line for freebies they can go through scoring droughts. 

Boise State has been very good at defending without fouling this year. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, which is huge for them. Washington struggles with defensive rebounding out of the zone, but Boise State hasn't been good at getting offensive boards.

Washington is 152nd in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 63rd in defensive efficiency. Boise State is 78th in offensive efficiency and Washington is 42nd in defensive efficiency. 

With the line inflated with over money coming in early here, I like the value on the under.

I see these as two teams who are good at making the other team work hard for each shot. I suspect these two will be invested in this game and that is good for defense and the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames host the St Francis PA Red Flash tonight in a CIT contest. Unlike the NIT, there are no rule changes in this tournament so it will just be the normal 3 point shot length and normal foul situations. 

Postseason smaller tournaments have been great to over bettors in the past, and I think this is another spot where the over holds value. UIC plays at the 21st fastest tempo in the country. St Francis PA is 297th on defense when it comes to efficiency, but they are a solid 133rd on the offensive end.

UIC will turn this into a track meet, and they should win as well. St Francis will have to keep playing quick to try to catch up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels play at the 341st tempo in the country out of 351 teams. St. Mary's isn't likely to be one of those teams who change the way they play in the NIT or a smaller postseason tournament (many teams do play faster). Still, their number has been bet up quickly just like the other games in these tournaments.

The NIT is experimenting with a lot of rule changes this year. One is moving the 3 point line back 20 inches. That in and of itself should help the under a bit especially in a game where both teams shoot a bunch of 3 point shots. The game being played in quarters shouldn't make much of a difference here. Neither of these teams foul very much.

Southeastern Louisiana has had major trouble scoring against good teams this year. They could only score 50 points against Valpo and only 50 points against Notre Dame. SE Louisiana plays at the 298th tempo in the country.

St. Mary's is well known for slowing things down to an extremely slow level once they have a big lead. They should control this game from the beginning.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats and Rhode Island Rams have met twice this year. The first game was 131 points and the second was 124 points. This one is on a neutral site, and Davidson must win this game to get into the NCAA Tournament. If anything, I would expect a slower tempo in this game. 

Davidson has played their first two A 10 Tournament games at only 56 and 58 possessions. They averaged a whopping 1.39 points per possession on Friday and a ridiculous 1.41 points per possession on Saturday.

Rhode Island has given Davidson trouble in the past with their aggressive defense that doesn't allow many looks from three point range. Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Davidson shoots the most 3's in the conference, and they are very good at them.

Davidson plays at the 335th tempo out of 351 teams in the country. Rhode Island is middle of the pack at 145th. 

In the last seven meetings between these two teams, only one has topped 131 points in regulation. In a game of this importance, I'll side with the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies take on the Eastern Washington Eagles in a battle to decide who gets to the NCAA Tournament from the Big Sky Conference. 

Montana is the best defense in this conference by a large margin. Eastern Washington is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Eastern Washington slows the tempo down almost as much as anyone in the conference. Montana has had some games where they go very slowly as well. I think a game of this importance is likely to play to a slower tempo.

Both teams are playing for the third straight day, and conference tournament finals where both teams are tired have been strong to the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down since I selected it this morning. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 137.5 and 3 star down to 135.5. Thank you.* 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two stayed more than 10 points under this posted total. Now, they are playing at Honda Center in Anaheim, which is clearly a big under facility. This is a hockey arena with tough shooting backdrops. These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in small arenas. The shooting numbers should be expected to be lower than average.

Both teams play at a relatively slow pace, and this is obviously a very important game for both of them with it being win or go home.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The line drop here has been so big that I have to take the over. These two teams commit more fouls than any other teams in the Big 12. There should be a ton of free throws attempted in this one. Both West Virginia and Texas Tech are excellent on the offensive glass, and both struggle with defensive rebounding. Second chance points should be key here as well.

The Red Raiders defense for the season has been great, but in their last few games it has fallen off badly. They are allowing 0.914 points per possession on the year. In their last five games, they are allowing 1.141 points per possession. 

Both regular season games went over this number, and this isn't an arena that has been strong to the under like some of the other neutral sites. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley and Grand Canyon played twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 124 and 119 points. It was primarily because the game was played at a very slow pace in each of those contests. 

This game means a bunch to both teams. They are one win away for playing for a NCAA Tournament berth. This is on a neutral floor which is a good thing for the under as well.

Grand Canyon is number one in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Utah Valley relies a lot on 3 pointers on the offensive end.

I think this line is several points too high considering the situation and the style these two have played at in the first two contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 255th in tempo as well. This is a team that is good at slowing the game down and winning with ball control and solid defense.

Mississippi State made its first 6 three pointers last night against LSU. That's usually Mississippi State's weakness is long range shooting. It's unlikely they will shoot that well again, especially against a great defense.

The Scottrade Center has been a great under venue through the years. I expect a slow pace and solid defense on both ends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Richmond Spiders defense has been awful down the stretch. Only two of their last ten games have stayed under this total despite them not playing at a very fast pace. 

St. Bonaventure has played at an extremely quick tempo all year. The Bonnies have multiple long range shooters who should get lots of open looks against this Richmond defense.

The first game between these two was played to a pace of 81 possessions. It was 97-88. This one shouldn't be that high, but I think this total is too low. 

Both teams are clearly better on offense than defense and the sharp money here is on the over ( more often than not the sharps like the under). 72% of bets and 99% of money is on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have the best ranked defense in the Big West. UC Irvine ranks fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a tremendous defensive team.

Hawaii was third in the Big West in the regular season in defensive efficiency. They are great at forcing turnovers, and the biggest weakness of the UC Irvine offense is their problems with turnovers.

The two games during the regular season both finished at 123 points. These are two teams that can go through some long droughts due to subpar shooting numbers. 

Factoring in the venue gives the under more value. The Honda Center is a massive arena built for hockey. In the last 47 neutral site games played at Honda Center the under is 32-15. These Big West teams aren't accustomed to playing in huge arenas. 

I expect the defenses to have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mississippi State and LSU both need to win a minimum of two games in the SEC Tournament to even have a thought of getting in the NCAA Tournament. These are teams who have proven they can win big games (LSU against Michigan and Mississippi State at Texas A&M). This isn't one of those games where both teams know their season is over and they don't care. 

This one is at Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher. This is the first year for the SEC Tournament at this venue. 

Both of these teams prefer playing at a relatively slow pace, so I don't expect a fast tempo here. They just played to a 66 possession game this past Saturday and it stayed well under this total. This game means a lot more to both teams and the defenses should be engaged here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Texas Longhorns played twice in the regular season. The first game played to a total of 125 points and the second was 128 in regulation. These two teams are way better on defense than offense, and both want to play slowly.

Most teams in the Big 12 push the tempo so these teams have some pretty high scoring games overall, but when they play against each other we have a slow paced game with terrific defense. I expect the same thing here today.

This is a played on a neutral floor, and this is a game Texas needs to win. They might make the NCAA Tournament without this one, but they can seal the deal if they win in this one. Important games usually mean more defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays and Providence Friars meet at Madison Square Garden on Thursday afternoon. Madison Square Garden has been the best under arena in the country for college basketball for many years. This is a huge arena with tough shooting backdrops. Poor shooting numbers are quite common at MSG.

Providence is right on the bubble. If they win this game, they'll be in the NCAA Tournament. If they lose this game, they'll be sweating in a big way on Sunday. 

Creighton and Providence played twice this year, and one of the two games went under the total. This is the most important game of the three, and it is played at MSG. 

Providence has consistently slowed the tempo in recent games against much faster foes. I'll expect them to do the same thing here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies just played the Alabama Crimson Tide this past Saturday. They will play them again here. In the two games in the regular season between these two teams, the final totals were 136 and 134 points. 

Now, Alabama has a game that they must win to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. Alabama was the best defensive team in the SEC in the regular season. Opponents averaged only 0.99 points per possession against the Crimson Tide. 

If you look at Texas A&M and Alabama on the season as a whole, this is a matchup of two teams who are much better on defense than offense. Alabama is 121st in the land in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is 74th on offense and 12th on defense for the year.

The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher.

With this an early start time and a game that means a lot, I'll take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Texas State Bobcats meet. I've had the under both times these teams met during the season. Both of those games stayed under the posted total comfortably. I think this one will as well.

These two teams both like to play very slowly. Texas State plays at the second slowest pace in the country behind only Virginia. 

Both of these teams have major problems with turnovers on the offensive end. Coastal Carolina ranks 342nd when it comes to taking care of the basketball on offense (out of 351 teams) and Texas State ranks 324th. 

A slow tempo with a bunch of wasted possessions by turnovers definitely lends itself to an under. This one is on a neutral court which is in general a positive for the under.

The four meetings between these two last year and this year have all finished with a combined 113 points or lower (with one staying that low even after OT). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is a bunch on the line here. These two teams were the two best teams in the conference on defense, and things should tighten up on offense with so much on the line in this contest. Also expect things to slow down in the tempo a bit here. Both teams are playing for the third straight day. This is a good situation for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Northeastern and College of Charleston are the two best defensive teams in the CAA and they meet here. Both of them like to slow the game down as well. This is a game that determines who will get to the NCAA Tournament, and both teams are tired after playing a lot in recent days. This is a good under spot and situation with a bunch on the line in this contest.

This one fits a strong system: when both teams are playing in at least their third game in the last four days and the game is on a neutral site the under is 151-99 (60.4%) since 2005.

Take the under.

Rotation #740 Fairfield/Iona under 156.5

*4 Star Play Under* The Albany Times Union Center has been an under gold mine in recent years. I'm not going to buck the trend. Especially with two teams who are worn out and playing for the fourth time in a very short period. This is an extremely high total considering the circumstances. The winner of this game goes to the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams are capable of scoring a lot, but with this gym and no rest I'm taking the under and expecting some scoring droughts. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is the favorite to win the CAA Championship. C of C wins by playing much better defense than most teams in this league. They also prefer to slow the game down. In fact, they are 327th in the country in tempo. 

William & Mary is one of the best offenses in the country, and they aren't good on defense. They are the reason this total is so high, but for a postseason game at a neutral site this number is too high. These two teams played an extremely high scoring game in the final game of the regular season where there were a ridiculous 67 free throw attempts. That is unlikely to happen again.

The first game in the regular season between these two stayed under this total by a point despite very good shooting percentages.

This is a win or go home game, and with one really good defense involved, a total set this high is too high.

Both teams stayed much lower than their normal scoring total yesterday in their first game at this neutral site.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There hasn't been an under arena in the country than the Times Union Center in recent years. The under is a whopping 30-10 in the last 40 neutral site games played there. The shooting backdrop is a problem at this large venue.

Quinnipiac slows the game down, and I think they'll be able to slow things down significantly against Fairfield here. 

Both of these two teams shoot a bunch of three pointers. That isn't typically a good thing when you are playing in a tough shooting gym like this one. In the league this year, Fairfield made 34.9% of their 3 pointers. Quinnipiac made 33.3% of their 3 pointers.

It wouldn't be a big surprise to see ugly shooting numbers in this arena and with everything on the line. The loser of this game is done for the season.

When the under is 134 or higher and both teams are playing at least their third game in four days- the under is 96-59 in the last 155 contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers have been the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference all year. Loyola Chicago slows the game down. The Ramblers rank in the bottom 50 teams in terms of tempo in the country. 

Illinois State plays quicker, but the RedBirds haven't been very efficient on offense in the conference. They are averaging only 1.007 points per possession in MVC play.

The two games in the regular season between these two teams were both 129 points combined. Now, they go to Scottrade Center to play in one of the best under gyms in the country. 

Another strong system here is both teams being tired- when teams are playing at least their third game in four days and the total is 134 or higher- the under is a whopping 96-59 (62%) since 2005.

The MVC is all about defense, and I think this title game comes with strong defense from both teams again.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters and the UC Davis Aggies meet on Saturday night in a huge game for both programs. These teams are tied at the top of the Big West. The winner of this game will win the Big West regular season title.

UC Irvine is 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. This Irvine team is tremendous on the defensive end. They play at a relatively slow pace, and on offense they are 245th in efficiency out of 351 teams. Their offense struggles largely because they have so many turnovers and wasted opportunities.

UC Davis isn't as good offensively as they were earlier in the year, because Chima Moneke is suspended. He was arguably the best player in the league, and his low post skills and offensive rebounding prowess powered this team.

The first meeting between these two was 64-53, and Moneke had 20 points in that contest.

This game means so much to both teams, and I think the defenses will be ready to go.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Ole Miss has played significantly faster since interim Coach Tony Madlock took over from Andy Kennedy. The Rebels host the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday night, and neither of these teams have anything to play for here. 

Ole Miss is 63rd in the country in offensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is 27th in the country in offensive efficiency. Ole Miss is 155th in defensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is a woeful 227th in defensive efficiency. The offenses have a significant advantage here.

Late in the season, when I find two teams who don't care about a game I always lean to the over. There is no reason for these two to be concerned about this one. They've had a disappointing year, and now they are ready to play in the SEC Tournament.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Total of Week* The Washington Huskies have been the best defense in the Pac 12 this year. Washington's matchup zone that Mike Hopkins brought over from Syracuse has stumped the Pac 12.

The Huskies are right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament, and they absolutely need to win this game. Washington's defensive effort here should be very strong. The Huskies have played 17 games in the Pac 12, and 12 of the 17 have stayed under this number.

Oregon is out of the NCAA Tournament for now, but the Ducks would still like to play their win in. The Ducks are coming off a disappointing loss at Washington State where their defense wasn't very good. Expect Dana Altman's team to come out with a lot more focus in this one.

The first meeting between these two was 65-40. The shooting in that one was terrible, and this will be higher than that game, but I think this is several points too high.

Both teams have something to play for, and Washington's defense is the best unit on the floor here.

Take the under. TOP Total of the Week 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs and Bradley Braves meet on Friday afternoon. This is the first game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament for both of these teams.

This game is played at the Scottrade Center, where the under has been extremely dominant. This is a huge hockey arena and the shooting backdrops are difficult. Combine that with the fact that most of these MVC teams are very solid on defense and questionable on offense, and you get a bunch of unders.

With a total of 124.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 42-16 in the last 58 games played at the Scottrade Center.

Bradley relies heavily on getting to the line on offense. Drake is easily first in the MVC at defending without fouling. They are 14th best in the country in that statistic.

The Drake offense got the least offensive rebounds of any team in the MVC this year. Drake's offense was great at home this year, but struggled away from home. Drake averaged only 0.972 points per possession away from home. They are averaging only 0.946 points per possession in their last three games.

With an early start and a tough arena, I like the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB 100% Totals System Play SMASHER* The Times Union Center hosts the MAAC Tournament now. This is a tremendous under venue. It has proven to be one of the best gyms in the country in the past few years.

Siena plays their home games here, so they are the team accustomed to the shooting backdrop and the gym in general. The rest of the teams play here once in a while, but the stakes are never as high as they are for the MAAC Tournament. 

In the last 8 games with a total of 148 or higher in the MAAC Tournament in a game without Siena as one of the two teams- the under is a perfect 8-0. 

These two teams are both inefficient on offense normally, and when the game matters more I do expect the teams to be tight and struggle with their shooting. These defenses aren't strong normally, but some better effort on that end should be expected.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Missouri State Bears and Valparaiso Crusaders played twice during the regular season this year. The teams combined for 117 points in the first meeting and 121 points in the second meeting.

The Scottrade Center is the venue here, and it is has been great for unders. The last 62 games in the Scottrade Center are 42-20 to the under. This is a huge hockey arena and attendance won't be very high for this opening round game. That is a tough shooting backdrop. More often than not we see low shooting numbers in this tournament.

Both of these teams are better on defense than they are on offense. While both teams suffered through a disappointing season this year, they have enough talent to make a bit of a run in this tournament. I expect the defensive effort here to be high.

In the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament- the last 53 posted totals set at 131 points or high have gone 39-14 to the under. 

My number is quite a bit lower than this. I see a lot of value on this one.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers play in what is essentially a Conference USA regular season title game. MTSU has a one game lead on Western Kentucky in the standings because of their 66-62 win on the road at Western Kentucky earlier this year.

MTSU has the best defense in the conference. The Blue Raiders like to slow the pace down, especially when they are playing against the other top teams in the conference. In conference play, 12 of MTSU's 16 games have stayed under this total.

Western Kentucky's offense will go up against an MTSU defense that is allowing only 0.875 points per possession on their home floor. The Western Kentucky defense is only allowing 0.996 points per possession on the road.

This game means a ton to both teams, and important games late in the year make me lean to the under. Recent high scoring games by Western Kentucky have inflated this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Wichita State's offense has been amazing this year. The Shockers have chewed up some really good defenses. Wichita State scored 76 points on the road in Cincinnati recently. They haven't scored less than 76 points in a game since January 20.

With many teams, you'll see tons of variance and some really low scores and very high scoring totals. The lowest combined total of points in a Wichita State game this year was 131 points. They have been consistent.

Wichita State is no longer a dominant defense. The Shockers were #1 in defensive efficiency in the country two years ago. They are #96 in the country this year. On the offensive end, they are fifth in offensive efficiency this year.

UCF's defense isn't even close to as good as they were with Tacko Fall. He's a difference maker in the middle, and their totals are still too low because of the huge drop in defensive efficiency without Fall in the middle patrolling the paint.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers and Evansville Purple Aces meet at the Scottrade Center in the MVC Tournament on Thursday. This is a huge gym and this game won't be very well attended. A tough shooting backdrop.

The two regular season games between these two teams finished at 106 points and a measly 88 points. The tempo in the second game was an unbelievably low 54 possessions. 

Juwan McCloud is doubtful for this game for Northern Iowa. McCloud is a guard who creates good looks for others. Koch is probable for Northern Iowa, but he is still less than 100 percent healthy.

Dru Brown will play here for Evansville, but he is still hampered by an injury as well.

The two regular season games were both ultra low, and this game means a lot more than those two games. I don't like taking unders this low in general, but my numbers say under here. I expect a sloppy offensive game with two excellent defenses showing their strength.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams look a lot different with interim coach Jase Herl leading the way. He wants the team to push the pace as much as possible. He has been working on the team's conditioning, and reporters have said he is constantly telling the players to play faster. Herl says he wants the team to have fun, be loose, and play quickly.

New Mexico is all about wanting to play quickly. The Lobos have scored 90 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. They have also allowed 89 points or more in 4 of their last 7 games. New Mexico cannot rebound defensively, and that's a big strength of Colorado State's offense is second chance opportunities. 

Colorado State's defense is weak at defending the 3 ball, and New Mexico launches a bunch of them.

In the first game between these two teams, Colorado State stalled due to strategy from then coach Larry Eustachy. They won't be stalling in this one. As long as the shooting numbers are decent, I expect this to go over. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers host the Dayton Flyers on Wednesday night. LaSalle has one of the most underrated players in the country in B.J. Johnson. Johnson missed some time in the middle of the year and the offense struggled then, but with him this is a quality offense.

Dayton has been miserable on defense all year. The Flyers are second to last in the conference in defensive efficiency as they give up 1.116 points per possession. LaSalle doesn't turn the ball over, and they should get good looks against this Dayton defense.

Dayton is excellent on offense. The Flyers are averaging 1.089 points per possession in conference play. They have one weakness and that is turning it over too much. Fortunately for them, LaSalle is 12th in the conference at forcing turnovers. Dayton's effective field goal percentage is 23rd best in the country.

Both teams shoot it really well from the line and that should help this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one tips off the Big South Conference Tournament. Conference tournament games have gone more under the total than over in the past 10 years (52% unders), but there is another factor that makes them a stronger play.

Conference tournament games where the home team is favored by 8 or more points and the total is 130 points or higher since 2006 have gone 348-256-7 to the under (57.6%). This is a large sample size, and I think with the higher spreads it makes since to have more unders with less late game fouling likely.

The last four games between these two have all finished at 125 points or lower. 

Presbyterian moves on offense at the second slowest tempo in the country (only Virginia slower). They average only 0.913 points per possession on the road. Charleston Southern is allowing only 0.987 points per possession at home.

A slow pace and two subpar offenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas tried slowing things down in the non-conference slate earlier this year, but they have gone back to their old style of running and gunning in Mid American Conference play. 

Central Michigan is fourth in the MAC in tempo overall out of 12 teams. They are 4th in offensive efficiency as well. The Chippewas are poor on defense, and come in at 10th in defensive efficiency in the MAC. 

Ball State plays quickly as well. The Cardinals rank 3rd in the MAC in tempo. Ball State's offense has come on of late as Tayler Persons has caught fire. 

The first game between these two finished at 158, with both teams shooting close to their season averages. The tempo was quick the whole way. I had this number at 153, and I like this one to get over the total.

The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over.

*3 Star Florida/Alabama Totals MONEY* The Florida Gators have been much better on defense of late. Coach Mike White said it himself after their last win. He said the improvement in the last couple months on defense has been amazing. It is showing up when it comes to totals as well.

In Florida's last eight games, zero of them have gone above this total. One tied the number and one stayed one point below the number. Keep in mind that they have played a couple very good offenses in this time and a couple very fast paced teams.

Alabama ranks number one in the SEC in defensive efficiency. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 0.987 points per possession in conference play. Florida is second in defensive efficiency in the SEC. In their last six games they are allowing only 0.989 points per possession.

Alabama's main problem on offense is turnovers, and Florida will force a lot of turnovers here. Alabama relies on getting to the line a lot, and Florida is first at defending without fouling in the SEC. Alabama's defense excels at defending the 3 point line, which should make it difficult on Florida's long range jumpers that they rely on heavily.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Texas Tech/West Virginia CASH* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have lost three straight games. Texas Tech is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders are first in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. I would expect a strong effort on defense after their recent losing streak.

West Virginia ranks second in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.90 points per possession at home on the season as a whole. 

Both of the games between these two last year, and the first meeting this year have all been played at a slow pace. Texas Tech ranks 8th in the Big 12 on offensive pace of play. West Virginia ranks sixth. 

Both teams are excellent at blocking shots, and both offenses get a lot of their shots blocked.

Two good teams late in the year with plenty to play for is an under signal for me. Also, Monday night is the single best night for unders in CBB long term because of the quick turnaround. That is especially true late in the year.

I think this one stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Furman Paladins take on the East Tennessee State Bucs on Sunday. This game means a lot to East Tennessee State. They are tied at the top of the SoCon with this being their final regular season game. 

East Tennessee State appeared to be coasting to a regular season title before losing back to back shockers at home against The Citadel and Wofford. 

East Tennessee State is coached by Steve Forbes, who does a great job with this team. He has talked about being disappointed by the defensive effort the last couple games. I expect a much better defensive performance on Sunday. ETSU is allowing only 0.948 points per possession in SoCon play. 

Furman relies heavily on the 3 ball on offense, and ETSU is first in the league at defending the 3 point line. They are allowing opponents to shoot only 32.2% from long range.

Late regular season games that mean a lot are good under plays. Another good under angle is a short turnaround, and this is certainly that after both of these teams played late Friday. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CBB Total DOMINATION* The George Mason Patriots host UMass in A10 action on Saturday night. 

UMass started the season out being a great under team- playing at a slow pace and struggling on offense. That changed drastically after they lost their top two centers and decided to play quicker. Additionally, their defense went down the tubes. UMass is allowing 1.156 points per possession on defense in the conference. That is worst in the A10. 

George Mason has been a great over team at home in the past. The over is 43-20 in their last 63 home games.

Both of these teams have little to play for, and I like looking for overs in games that mean little at the end of the regular season.

The over is 8-0 in UMass' last 8 games. The over is 4-1 in George Mason's last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-1 trend.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington and Drexel both like to play at a quick tempo. The first game between these two got to 166 points before overtime. UNC Wilmington averages 76.4 possessions when playing on the road. Drexel averages 73.8 possessions when playing at home. There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow this game down. 

UNC Wilmington has allowed only 1.04 points per possession when playing at home, but they are allowing an ugly 1.173 points per possession on the road. Inside conference play, Drexel is worst in the CAA when it comes to defensive efficiency. 

The combination of speed and two poor defenses should lead to a track meet that gets past this posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs are 13-3 in staying under this number in their last 16 games. Georgia plays elite defense, and that is especially the case at home. 

LSU is averaging a miserable 0.987 points per possession on the road. The Tigers are averaging an impressive 1.186 points per possession at home. The road has been unkind to this offense.

The first game between these two finished at 61-60 with only 58 possessions. Georgia controlled the pace in that one. This game is totaled significantly higher, but I see it being another defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse have been back and forth this year between fast paced games and slower paced games. UIC started the season surprisingly playing slower than they did last season. That has changed in a big way. UIC has now played a whopping 10 straight games to a pace of 73 possessions or quicker. 

The Flames and Norse played a game that went to 75 possessions earlier this year. Northern Kentucky won 86-51. UIC scored a miserable 0.68 points per possession and the game still only stayed under this total by 8.5 points. 

UIC is playing much better on offense of late, and it is largely due to the great play of Dikembe Dixson. Dixson was injured last year and he started slowly this year, but he has scored 18 points or more in four of the team's last five games. He is a play maker for this team.

I see an up and down tempo, and with the total only in the mid 140's, I like the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets and Samford Bulldogs are both really bad teams. They are also both very close to the end of their regular season (it ends on Sunday for both teams). 

When I see a matchup of two bad teams at the end of the regular season I always lean to the over. That is especially true when those teams are normally bad on defense. Both of these teams definitely fit that bill.

VMI is allowing 1.082 points per possession in the conference and 1.079 on the year. That isn't good, but it's a lot better than Samford. The Bulldogs are allowing 1.205 points per possession on defense on the year. That's 347th out of 351 teams in the nation.

These teams played to a pace of 80 less than a month ago. VMI plays to the pace of the opponent, and Samford has played to a pace of 76 possessions or quicker in five of their last nine games.

This one should be fast again, and I don't expect to see much defense.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have been an under machine. UC Irvine slows the game down and they play tremendous defense. Opponents are averaging only 0.903 points per possession against Irvine this year.

UCSB has shot the ball well most of the year, but the Gauchos have a lot of pressure on them here. UC Irvine is right behind them in the Big West standings, and the Anteaters are a really tough team to beat on the road.

UCSB also plays at a slow pace. These two teams are first and second in the Big West in defensive rebounding, so that should help limit second chance points here. 

The under is 8-1 in Irvine's last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 18-6 in their last 24 Big West Conference games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare chance for both of these teams to play on national television. Jacksonville State pulled off the upset at Belmont earlier this year.

Belmont is tied with Murray State at the top of the OVC standings, and every game is a really big one to them right now. 

Jacksonville State ranks dead last in the OVC in effective field goal percentage. This is a team that plays slowly and doesn't shoot the ball well. Belmont's defense is even better than they were a year ago, and the Bruins are playing slightly slower.

Jacksonville State is allowing only 0.976 points per possession on defense. 

These two teams played 3 games last year and the final totals were: 137, 119, and 124 points. The game earlier this year was 124 points.

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats are a great under team. They play at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country (Virginia slower). Texas State is elite on defense, especially on their home floor. At the same time, they are averaging only 0.93 points per possession on their home floor. The under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games.

Georgia State and Texas State have played nine times in the last four years. All nine of those games have stayed under this total in regulation. None of them have gone above 124 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I rarely take overs that are this high, but I think there are plenty of reasons for the over in this contest.

Rider is 16th in the nation in pace of play out of 351 teams. Monmouth is quick as well, and they are 69th quickest in the country.

Both Rider and Monmouth are elite in getting to the free throw line. Rider is 14th in the nation in FTA/FGA and Monmouth is 3rd in the country in that same statistic.

The first game between these two was played at a ridiculously fast pace of 86 possessions. This one should be blazing fast with a bunch of free throws again.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been atrocious on defense this year, and they have been especially bad on that end of the floor of late. Marquette is allowing a mind-boggling 1.234 points per possession in their last three games. Marquette has allowed 85 points or more in six of their last seven games! 

The Golden Eagles offense is great though. Even though they'll likely be without Markus Howard, this Marquette team is full of shooters. They shoot better than 40% from 3 point range. St. John's weakness on defense is defending beyond the arc. Last year they ranked 300th in 3 point defense and this year they are 306th. Opponents are shooting 41.5% from 3 point range in Big East play against them.

Both teams foul more than the average team, and both teams here are great on free throws.

Neither of these teams have anything major to play for right now. They both will have to make a run in the conference tournament if they want to go dancing.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears host the Bradley Braves in a revenge spot for the Bears from a 72-52 road loss at Bradley earlier this year. 

Few teams in the country have the kind of offensive splits at home vs. on the road that Bradley does. The Braves are averaging a solid 1.05 points per possession at home. They are averaging an abysmal 0.936 points per possession on the road.

Missouri State has held opponents to 0.933 points per possession at home. The Bears defense should come ready to play here.

This one is for seeding in the MVC Tournament, and with a win Missouri State would tie Bradley in the standings. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles play a unique zone defense. They have a tremendous length at all positions, and that means a bunch of contested looks. Eastern Michigan ranks first in the MAC in defensive efficiency. Their one weakness is defensive rebounds, but Toledo is 11th out of 12 in the MAC in offensive rebounding.

Toledo star freshman Marreon Jackson is shooting 43% from long range on the year, but he is questionable for this one. He missed last game due to an injury. Toledo's defensive strength is defending in two point territory. Eastern Michigan relies on scoring inside the arc the second most of any team in the MAC.

13 of Eastern Michigan's last 15 games have been below this posted total in regulation. They have been extremely consistent. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a really good under team. Why? The Knights are horrendous on offense. They are very solid on defense. They also play at a very slow pace.

Rutgers has had some extremely low scoring games. In fact, 9 of their last 15 Big Ten games have stayed at 119 points or lower. 

Ohio State ranks first in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes held Rutgers to 46 points in New Jersey earlier this year. Coming off two losses, I expect the Buckeyes to be focused and very motivated on the defensive end.

Ohio State has shown a strong tendency to slow the game down significantly when they are winning, and they are a big favorite in this one. Look for them to get a lead and then lock it down with solid defense and ball control.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas started the season playing slowly, but they have reverted back to their old style of playing with a really quick tempo. Central Michigan is a rare team in that they have played quite a bit faster on the road on the season. 

Western Michigan plays at a tempo just a tick slower than average, but the Broncos are third in the MAC in offensive efficiency and ninth in defensive efficiency.

Central Michigan has seen only one of their last eight road games finish below 152 points. The Chippewas defense is 10th in the MAC in defensive efficiency. They are last in defending two point shots. That's important because Western Michigan gets the second most percentage of their points inside the arc of any team in the MAC.

Western Michigan's defensive weakness is defending beyond the arc. Again, this is where Central Michigan makes a living. The Chippewas also are first in the league in offensive rebounding.

This one is at a point spread where a foul fest late is a real possibility. Central Michigan is shooting 79.4% from the FT line in MAC play. Western Michigan is shooting 73.0% from the line in MAC play.

The over is 49-22-3 in W Michigan's last 74 home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have become a really good under team of late. Northwestern has slowed the pace down quite a bit, and it has been their zone defense that has helped keep the tempo under control. 

Northwestern has played 7 of their last 8 games to 131 total points or less, and one of those games went into overtime. In their last six games, only one game has had a pace above 60 possessions (very slow) in regulation. 

Maryland ranks 263rd out of 351 in the country in tempo. The Terps are only slightly quicker-paced than Northwestern, and when they played a couple weeks ago the tempo stayed slow and the final total was 130 points. Four of Maryland's last five games have paced to a tempo of 62 possessions or fewer.

The under is 10-1 in Northwestern's last 11 home games. The under is 9-1 in Maryland's last 10 games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are playing quite a bit slower as the season moves along. Miami ranks 222nd in tempo on the year overall. The Hurricanes played Pittsburgh to a game with 67 possessions in it on December 30. On January 31, they played Pitt again and there were only 61 possessions in the contest.

Bruce Brown is out with an injury for Miami, and the team definitely misses him. He was one of the most athletic guys on the team, and he was a primary scoring option.

Notre Dame is still without Bonzie Colson and D.J. Harvey. Harvey re-injured himself at the end of last week, and that is a hit to the Notre Dame offense. Notre Dame is definitely still a good offensive team with Farrell now healthy again, but they play very slowly. The Fighting Irish are 326th in the nation in tempo (out of 351 teams). 

Notre Dame is elite at shooting 3's, but Miami ranks 29th in the country at defending beyond the arc. Miami is reliant on getting near the rim on offense, and Notre Dame has defended the inside well.

Both teams have been excellent at defending without fouling this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have played some great basketball in the last few weeks. Penn State has been more deliberate on offense. They aren't looking to win high scoring games as much as they did in the past. They are looking to win with defense and ball control. It is working nicely. Penn State is all the way up to 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Purdue has lost three straight games after winning 19 in a row before that. The Boilermakers have slowed their pace down drastically in recent games as well. They aren't shooting as well as they did earlier in the year, and their shots should be contested well here. Purdue is still playing good defense though, and Penn State's offense has generally struggled on the road.

I expect Matt Painter's team to be ready to go on defense in this one as they try to stop their slump. A big game for both teams, and the tempo shouldn't be very fast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a tremendous under team. They are 306th out of 351 in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 18th out of 351 in defensive efficiency. Rutgers also plays at the 261st quickest tempo, so they are playing very slowly.

Maryland plays at the 259th tempo, so there is no reason to expect anything other than a very slow pace in this game. The Terps are better on offense and worse on defense, but they have played low scoring games against Wisconsin and Northwestern of late. 

The Rutgers offense has been downright abysmal in Big Ten play. They are averaging only 0.87 points per possession. 

I see a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Washington Huskies have been an under machine this year, and I see no reason for it to change here. Washington is a poor offensive team, but their matchup zone is tremendous. 

Washington is first in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. Colorado is second in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. 

Colorado has been looking to slow the pace down. In the first game between these two, the final was 134 points. The shooting numbers were average if not slightly better than average in that one. 

Both teams can force turnovers at a high rate, and I see a lot of wasted possessions in this one.

My number was significantly lower than this.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois State RedBirds are banged up right now. Phil Fayne is doubtful here and he is averaging 15.5 points and 7 boards per game. The team has missed him badly since he went out with an injury.

The first game between these two was surprisingly high scoring, but Northern Iowa generally has some extremely low scoring games. Northern Iowa is bad on offense and they play very slowly. They are also solid on defense. 

Illinois State has less firepower now than normal, and Northern Iowa has a starter in Juwon McCloud questionable for this one as well. 

The under is 52-34 in Northern Iowa's last 86 road games in Missouri Valley Conference play when the total is at least 120 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have been amazingly efficient on offense this year. South Dakota State is averaging a whopping 1.182 points per possession in the Summit League. They already torched Western Illinois for 98 points once this year. 

South Dakota State is the much better team here, and they look to push the pace at every chance. 

South Dakota State has seen 8 of their last 10 games go over this total. 

Western Illinois has been playing to the pace of their opponent, and with them likely being behind all the way here, they'll have to try to keep pushing and they should score enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers and George Mason Patriots have very little to play for right now. I like looking for spots where we have two underachieving teams late in the season who are unlikely to give a strong effort on the defensive end. I think this is one of those games.

LaSalle and George Mason have both picked up their pace and had higher scoring games of late. The recency trends are positive for the over, and I believe this is at least somewhat due to them not being very interested.

Both teams are better on offense than defense. Both teams shoot a very good percentage from the free throw line. With the spread what it is here, a foul fest late wouldn't be a surprise.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first game between these two teams finished at 144 points, but that is misleading. It was 63-50 with 1:20 left in the game. An epic foul fest led to 31 points in the final 1:20 of the game. It was a low scoring slow paced game for much of the way. 

This line has moved up several points already, and I disagree with that move. San Diego is a team that doesn't shoot the ball very well, but they are very good on defense. Pacific has slowed down the tempo drastically in conference play. Pacific is averaging 19.6 seconds on offense before they put up a shot, which is the slowest mark in the West Coast Conference.

Both of these teams have seen 9 of their last 14 games stay under this total. My number here was 133.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies defense is a tough one to figure out. Mike Hopkins has his team playing a suffocating matchup zone that he learned under Jim Boeheim at Syracuse. The zone slows the game down because it doesn't allow easy looks from anywhere on the floor when it is run correctly. The one weakness of this zone is trouble getting defensive rebounds. In this matchup though, Utah is dead last in the Pac 12 in offensive rebounds.

Utah is last in the Pac 12 in tempo. The Utes are looking to slow the game down. Utah is reliant on the three-point shot, and Washington is first in the Pac 12 at defending beyond the arc. 

Washington's offense ranks 11th out of 12 in the Pac 12 in efficiency. They take a lot of long jumpers that aren't very good shots.

Washington has seen 9 of their 12 conference games stay under this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers host the Seton Hall Pirates on Wednesday night. The first meeting between these two was 73-64 Xavier as they won on the road. 

This is an extremely high total. Late in the season, higher totals have stayed under the total at a very high clip the last three years. Totals of 159.5 or higher have gone 59.9% to the under in the past three years (game 22 or later in the season). If you narrow it down to teams with more than 50% overs on the year squaring off against each other it bumps it to 63%. 

Also, late in the year when good teams square off against each other it is a stronger angle to the under with both defenses generally playing hard in a game that means a lot.

These teams will likely score quite a few here, but this number is a few too high. Neither team fouls much at all, and that's important with a sky high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights aren't the same team without Tacko Fall. With him, they are an elite defense. Without him, they have been a middle of the road defense. The over is 5-1 in UCF's six games since Tacko Fall was injured. 

USF plays very slowly, but they are awful on defense. In the league, USF is allowing a whopping 1.161 points per possession. That's worst in the conference. 

UCF has gaudy defensive efficiency numbers on the season (because Fall was so good in the interior), but in their last three games they have allowed 1.058 points per possession. That is worse than the average in the nation during that time. 

With BJ Taylor now back in the fold on the offensive end, UCF is much more capable on that end of the floor. The first game between these two finished at 140 and that was without Fall on the floor.

This number is too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are much more competitive than they used to be. Why? Because they are playing some really good defense. Rutgers is 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year. They are also a miserable 309th out of 351 in offensive efficiency on the year.

In the Big Ten, Rutgers is averaging an ugly 0.859 points per possession. That is last in the Big Ten, and it is last by a mile. Who is second worst in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency? It's their opponent in this game, Northwestern. Northwestern is averaging 0.989 points per possession. 

Northwestern has switched over to a zone defense and slowed the game down drastically in their last ten games. Nine of those ten games have gone under the total. 

Both of these teams want to play slowly, and they are the two worst offenses in the conference. Both are playing well on defense. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In general I don't like taking extremely low unders, but this one is very low for a reason. Virginia's pack line defense has been amazing this year. Virginia is allowing only 0.828 points per possession on the season. That's first in the country. Virginia is also the slowest paced team out of 351 in the country.

Seven of Virginia's last nine games have stayed under this extremely low number after regulation. The Cavs offense has tailed off of late, but their defense has been tremendous.

Miami's defense ranks 17th best in the country. The Hurricanes beat Virginia 54-48 in overtime last year. These two teams can play some great defense, and both can struggle on offense.

Miami's Bruce Brown is averaging 11.4 points per game, but he's out with an injury here. That hurts the Hurricanes offense quite a bit.

The defenses should have the upper hand the whole way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide have a very good defense. Alabama Coach Avery Johnson said this year's team would win with defense, and he's been right. Alabama is 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Alabama is taking 1.5 seconds more on average in league play on the offensive end than they did in the non-conference slate. The Tide are averaging only 1.016 points per possession in the SEC. They are first in SEC play allowing only 0.946 points per possession. 

LSU plays to the pace of their opponent most of the time, and their offense has been subpar on the road.

-8 of LSU's last 10 have stayed under this number

-11 of Bama's 12 SEC games have stayed under this number

The first game got to only 140 points, and that was with a lot of fouling at the end and 35 made free throws in the contest.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are 12th and 11th out of 12 teams in the Mid American Conference in terms of pace of play. Many teams in the MAC want to run, but these two want to slow things down and they get a great chance to slow it down against each other. The first time these two got together we saw a 58-48 game played at a pace of 60 possessions. 

I don't think this one will be that low scoring, but I do think this total is too high. Three of Eastern Michigan's last five games have had 120 points or less in regulation. The Eagles are the best defense in the MAC with their matchup zone. They are also second worst in offense. 

Both of these teams have problems with turnovers. I see plenty of wasted possessions in this one which helps the under a great deal. 

I had this one at 125 points. This is a good amount of value on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines are both teams I like to play unders with. These are teams who definitely want to play at a slow pace.

Wisconsin is 348th in the nation in tempo out of 351 teams. Michigan is 345th in the nation in tempo. This should be an extraordinarily slow paced game.

Michigan was 4th in offensive efficiency last year, but they are only 56th this year. The Wolverines were 69th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 20th this year. 

Both of these teams rebound defensively extremely well. There shouldn't be many second chance points in this game. Neither team is good at getting to the line either.

Look for a tight low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers have been pushing the pace a lot more since B.J. Johnson came back from an injury. Johnson is the team's leading scorer, averaging an impressive 21.0 points per game and 8 rebounds per game. He is their main man, and with him back in the fold LaSalle is scoring against everyone.

The problem for LaSalle is they haven't been defending anyone. LaSalle has only allowed less than 72 points in one of their last 10 games. The Explorers are dead last in the A 10 in 3 point percentage defense.

St. Louis does play slowly, though they have played somewhat quicker of late. The first game between these two was played at LaSalle's tempo, and I think they'll be able to push the tempo some here.

This is a game between two subpar teams late in the year, and there are many successful over systems on mediocre or worse teams matching up late in the regular season. 

Take the over.