Sports Picks & Predictions

NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-25-20	Western Carolina v. NC-Wilmington OVER 148		98-76	Win	100	23 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UNC Wilmington Seahawks should play a lot quicker under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. UNC Wilmington didn't really have an identity last season. That will change this year. They will use full court pressure and try to get to the basket and get to the free throw line as much as possible on offense. Siddle was an assistant under Kevin Keatts, and his teams always rank in the top 50 in the nation in tempo. Western Carolina has an underrated star in Mason Faulkner running the offense. The Catamounts were 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They also prefer to play at a quick pace, so I don't see them slowing this one down. If the shooting numbers are terribly low this could stay under, but with normalized shooting numbers and the pace I'm expecting- I have to bet the over (my number here was 152.5) Take the over.
11-25-20	Old Dominion v. Maryland UNDER 132.5		67-85	Loss	-110	11 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Maryland lost all sorts of star power from a year ago. They had the talent to make noise in March last year, but the season was shut down. Maryland now must rely on their defense this season. The Terrapins won't be able to crash the offensive boards and get a bunch of second chance points. Old Dominion is great on the defensive glass. The Monarchs are always amazing at turning games into a rock fight. Their five non conference games against top 100 teams last year all finished at 129 points or lower. Old Dominion is short on offensive firepower. The pace of this game will be very slow. Both teams here settle for a lot of mid range jumpers that aren't very good looks. Take the under.
03-11-20	UTEP v. Marshall UNDER 145		78-86	Loss	-110	8 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UTEP Miners rank 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Marshall ranks 100th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The two teams are 276th and 211th in offensive efficiency. These two teams met once during the regular season and the final was 71-61. Marshall is a very fast paced team, but they aren't efficient on offense this year like they were a year ago with Jon Elmore leading the way. This Thundering Herd team has a lot of length on the inside and they have multiple shot blockers. UTEP played games far under this total during the regular season. In UTEP's last 12 games of the season, only one game went over 136 points. This is played at Frisco Texas in the football practice facility. The under is 14-8 in games played here. Take the under.
03-11-20	Georgia v. Ole Miss UNDER 145.5		81-63	Win	100	25 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The under is 46-37 in the last 83 games played at Bridgestone Arena. This is a hockey arena (Nashville Predators) and the shooting backdrop is a difficult one. These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in big arenas, but I don't think there will be many people at this game. A big venue with a small amount of people at the game tilts things toward the under in the long run. Ole Miss is third in the SEC in defensive efficiency. The Rebels have turned the ball over quite a bit on offense this season. Georgia plays quickly, but they have had major turnover problems on offense. The Bulldogs are too reliant on one player. In the regular season these two teams met and the final was 70-60. This game means more to both teams in the one and done tournament format. Take the under.
03-11-20	Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 132.5	Top	66-56	Win	100	28 h 10 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under The Old Dominion Monarchs are a defensive-minded team. They are third in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. They also rank 12th in CUSA in tempo, so they want to slow the game down as much as possible. The under is 14-8 in the games played at Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a strange setup where multiple games are going on at once in a football practice facility. I think this is likely going to continue to be helpful for the under. Old Dominion has played five games at Frisco in the last two years. Not a single game of Old Dominion's has finished higher than 120 total points. Florida Atlantic is much better on defense than offense. Though they prefer to play quickly, they have had some very low scoring games this year. I think this line is several points too high. Take the under. Note- this line has moved some since I initially played this on Tuesday afternoon. I would play this for 5 stars down to 130. This would be a 4 star play for me at 129.5 or lower. Thank you
03-11-20	Idaho State v. Northern Arizona UNDER 144.5		64-62	Win	100	26 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks and Idaho State Bengals square off at Century Link Arena in Boise on Wednesday afternoon. Century Link has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment. These teams aren't very good, and seeing a sloppy game here should come as no surprise. One thing both teams have done this year is defend without fouling, so I'll hope to avoid a ref show in this one. Take the under.
03-11-20	Idaho v. Southern Utah UNDER 136.5		69-75	Loss	-110	24 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Idaho is a weak team and they are a big underdog here for a reason. Southern Utah has the best defense in the Big Sky. The Thunderbirds have been able to lock down on that end a lot this year. In games with bigger spreads at a neutral site, the under has been a good play in the long run. This game is at Century Link Arena. This has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment. Take the under here.
03-10-20	North Dakota v. North Dakota State UNDER 141		53-89	Loss	-109	8 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This is the Summit League final. This tournament has been great to under bettors, and I'm going to take the under again here. This is a big venue where the shooting backdrop is difficult. Additionally, this game is for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. When there is more on the line in the final game of these tournaments, in the long run it has been very helpful to the under. Both of these teams are great at holding the opposition to one shot, and neither of these teams have gotten to the free throw line much this season. Take the under.
03-09-20	Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State UNDER 150		69-75	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The North Dakota State Bison rank first in the Summit League in defensive efficiency. It's no secret that this league is offensive minded on the whole, but in the Summit League Conference Tournament the under has done really well in recent years. This tournament is held at Denny Sanford Premier Center. This has been a good under venue. It is larger than most of these teams are accustomed to playing in. Additionally, these games clearly mean more to the teams than their regular season games have. That typically means the game slows down a bit and the defenses work a little harder. Both games in the regular season between these two teams went narrowly over this posted total. In both of those games both teams shot the ball well. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the shooting percentages tick down a bit in a game of this magnitude. The winner of this game will play tomorrow night for a NCAA Tournament spot. Take the under.
03-08-20	North Dakota v. South Dakota UNDER 154.5		74-71	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario. The first two meetings between these two were comfortably under this number. I like the under again here. North Dakota needs to slow the game down and I think they'll do it here. Take the under.
03-08-20	Nebraska-Omaha v. Oral Roberts UNDER 157		52-79	Win	100	16 h 46 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario. Omaha has slowed their pace down this year. The two regular season meetings between these two teams were 138 and 141 points. This game means more and we are in a venue that is favorable to the under. Take the under.
03-08-20	Connecticut v. Tulane OVER 141		80-76	Win	100	13 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This is the final game of the regular season for both of these teams. They don't have anything important to play for. These late season regular season games between two mediocre teams have trended strongly toward the over in the past. The Huskies have been playing noticeably quicker in recent games, and Tulane is doing more trapping and forcing steals and trying to score in the open floor. Both teams have been very aggressive on the offensive glass, and the AAC refs have a quick whistle. I see a lot of free throw attempts in this contest. Take the over.
03-08-20	Memphis v. Houston UNDER 134.5		57-64	Win	100	8 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Both of these teams are excellent defensively. While Memphis has serious turnover problems on offense, the Tigers are 1st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. They are 154th in effective field goal percentage offense. Houston ranks 5th in effective field goal percentage defense on the year. The Cougars rank 230th in effective field goal percentage offense. The shots in this game should be contested very well. Neither of these teams let their opponents near the hoop much at all. This is an important game for both teams and I'll look for a strong defensive effort in an early Sunday afternoon contest. Take the under.
03-07-20	IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota State UNDER 140.5		77-74	Loss	-105	20 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Fort Wayne Mastodons are one of the rare teams in the Summit League that is very weak on the offensive end and pretty good on the defensive end. Fort Wayne averaged only 0.969 points per possession in the conference this season. They were the third best defense in the Summit League. South Dakota State slowed their pace down as the season moved along. The Jackrabbits are clearly the better team here, but they are happy to get a lead and keep the pace slower. The two regular season meetings stayed under this posted total. This game is played at a venue where the under is 33-23 in the last 56 games played here. I think this game is several points too high. Take the under.
03-07-20	SMU v. South Florida OVER 129		60-61	Loss	-109	17 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The SMU Mustangs and USF Bulls play in a meaningless final regular season game on Saturday evening. These two played a 82-64 game on January 1st. SMU ranks first in the American Athletic Conference in offensive efficiency. The Mustangs are a really good offensive team with Kendric Davis on the floor. SMU is able to get to the basket often, and USF doesn't have much shot blocking ability. USF gets quite a few points from steals quick transition opportunities. SMU is susceptible to this, and I think that shows up in a game like this one. USF is drawing fouls at a very high rate on their home floor. This is a low number for a final regular season contest. Take the over.
03-07-20	Marshall v. Texas-San Antonio OVER 160		82-77	Loss	-105	16 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners and Marshall Thundering Herd play on Saturday afternoon. Both of these teams are extremely fast paced teams who want a track meet whenever they can get it. The first game between these two was a track meet, but the shooting numbers were horrendous. In fact, UTSA won despite shooting 6/28 from 3 point range. Marshall was a putrid 3/26 from 3 point range. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams and these games have trended toward the over in the past decade. Look for more of the shots to fall on Saturday. Take the over.
03-07-20	UCLA v. USC UNDER 134		52-54	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans play in a very important rivalry game on Saturday afternoon. Both teams have been playing great basketball of late. Both teams are likely in the field right now. As of a month ago, neither of these teams would have been in the NCAA Tournament. UCLA slows the game down and they are turning into a normal Mick Cronin team who really defends well and scraps. USC has been mixing up their defenses, and Andy Enfield's team is really playing well on the defensive end. The Trojans should be able to bother the Bruins and contest their jumpers. Two motivated teams in their final regular season game of the year. Take the under.
03-07-20	Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 137		71-70	Loss	-110	13 h 9 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Florida Gators have slowed their pace down in their last five contests. They haven't played a single game in that stretch to anything faster than 65 possessions. Florida scored only 59 points at Kentucky in their recent meeting, and the Gators put up only 58 against Tennessee. Kentucky isn't quite as dominant on defense as they have been in some recent seasons, but they still have the #2 ranked defense in the SEC. The Wildcats are playing at a slightly slower than average tempo. Florida is a good team, but they have been disappointing on the whole this year. They need a big win. Kentucky and Florida don't like each other and I see another strong defensive game that is played in the halfcourt. Take the under.
03-06-20	Missouri State v. Indiana State UNDER 136.5		78-51	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher. Indiana State is good at controlling the pace. The Sycamores are 313th in average possession length in the country. Missouri State has sped up this year, but Indiana State did a nice job slowing them down in both regular season meetings. Both teams have a FTA/FGA of less than 30% so a foul fest doesn't look likely unless we get a ref show. Take the under.
03-06-20	Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco UNDER 131		53-82	Loss	-105	11 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Francisco Dons and Loyola Marymount Lions just played a game to 136 points where both teams shot the ball far better than normal. Now they go play on a neutral court in a win or go home scenario. I think the defenses will be better and the pace will stay very slow. San Francisco has gradually slowed their tempo throughout the year, and Marymount is one of the 10 slowest paced teams in the country. The first meeting between these two was 61-53 and played to a pace of just 57 possessions. Take the under.
03-06-20	The Citadel v. Wofford UNDER 147.5		76-93	Loss	-110	18 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Citadel has been a bit of a different team than they were in past seasons. The Citadel still plays very quickly, but they have been far less efficient on offense this season. They are 313th in offensive efficiency last year. They were 134th last season. Wofford rated 4th in the Southern Conference in defensive efficiency. Wofford also ranked ninth in overall tempo. They'll work to slow this game down. This is a neutral site game and it is the first game of the conference tournament for both of these teams. Neutral site games with a favorite of 6 points or more and a total of 131.5 or higher have gone 56.9% to the under since 2005. I'll look for Wofford to get a lead here and keep things under control. Take the under.
03-06-20	Valparaiso v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 132.5		74-73	Loss	-109	9 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher. Loyola is a defense first team, and Valpo is a poor shooting team who struggles to get to the free throw line. Valpo struggled badly shooting it last night against lowly Evansville, and now they must play the best defense in the conference. Take the under.
03-06-20	Southern Illinois v. Bradley UNDER 127		59-64	Win	100	22 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has seen a bunch of very low scoring games over the last few years. Enterprise Center is arguably the best under gym in the country. These teams aren't accustomed to playing in such a big venue. Bradley has been good on offense down the stretch, but the Braves were inconsistent away from home on offense. Southern Illinois works very hard to slow the game down. This is an afternoon tip time during the week and it is both teams first game at Arch Madness in St. Louis. Look for a slow pace here. Take the under.
03-05-20	Northern Arizona v. Portland State OVER 154		66-80	Loss	-109	20 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Over In Portland State's last 13 games, the over has cashed on this number (154) 10 times. The under has cashed only twice. There was one tie. Portland State has sped up their tempo as the season has gone on, and their offense has become much more efficient. Portland State has scored 87 points or more in four straight games. The Vikings have only scored less than 81 points once in their last nine games. Northern Arizona's offense is much more efficient this year than it was last year. The last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished with 157, 197, and 166 total points. This is a late season regular game in the Big Sky Conference, where very little defense is played. Both teams should get a lot of second chance points here too. Take the over.
03-05-20	Wichita State v. Memphis UNDER 138.5		60-68	Win	100	19 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Memphis Tigers host the Wichita State Shockers in a game between two teams who are on the bubble. Both teams need this game. Late in the regular season I like to look for games between two teams who have a lot to play for if I am taking unders. That is the case in this game. Memphis is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wichita State is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. These teams are 216th and 120th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Both of these teams do a good job protecting the basket. Neither team has been particularly good at shooting the 3 point shot either. I expect some solid defense to be played here. Take the under.
03-05-20	Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 135.5		65-75	Loss	-110	17 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The first game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is this one. Enterprise Center hosts this tournament and it is a great under venue. Drake and Illinois State played two very different games against each other this year. The first game was a 84-74 high scoring contest. The second game was recently and it was a low scoring 57-53 game. In the second game, Illinois State played zone most of the game. Drake struggled badly with that zone defense. While I'm not sure Illinois State will play zone all the time here, they would be crazy not to play zone at least part of the contest. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. With a tough shooting backdrop and in a one and done game, I have to take my chances here. Could they shoot lights out? Of course. The past numbers of this arena though show that taking an under like this is a long term + expected value proposition. Take the under.
03-04-20	Morehead State v. Tennessee State UNDER 138		67-74	Loss	-105	26 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This is a first round game in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. This is played at a neutral site. Neutral site games definitely lean toward the under and with this game meaning so much to both teams the tempo should be a bit slower than their average games. The two regular season meetings between these two finished at 112 points and 129 points. Both games were played at a pretty slow pace. Both of these teams are playing slightly slower than they did a year ago, and both teams are better on defense than a year ago. In the last four meetings between these two teams, there hasn't been a game that has finished above 135 points. Now, they are playing a game that means a lot more to both teams than a regular season contest does. Take the under.
03-03-20	Cincinnati v. South Florida UNDER 128		79-67	Loss	-105	17 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under USF has been a really good under team this year. In AAC play, the under is 11-5 on this very low number in USF contests. The under is actually 8-8 on this number in Cincinnati games as well. The Bearcats are right on the bubble and clearly have a lot to play for in this contest. USF has allowed 62 points or less in regulation in five straight home contests. The Bulls defense has been strong all year. Cincinnati has been good defensively of late. The Bearcats rank 25th in the nation in effective field goal percentage on the year. Both of these teams have had trouble with turnovers this year. I would expect a lot of wasted possessions and sloppy play here. Take the under.
03-02-20	Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Jackson State UNDER 122.5		56-76	Loss	-110	13 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions offense ranks 353rd in efficiency out of 353 teams in the country. They have been an under machine. Pine Bluff has failed to score more than 54 points in seven of their last nine games. Jackson State is 331st in offensive efficiency in the country, so they aren't very good on that end of the floor either. The two teams are 200th and 199th in defensive efficiency so they are much more respectable on the defensive end. The first game between these two was 49-45. This will likely be higher than that game, but this number has been bet up so much that I have to take the under. Take the under here.
03-01-20	Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136		55-68	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Late in the season when two good teams meet with a lot at stake, the under is the way I have to lean to begin with. In this case, there is a lot on the line. Cincinnati is a bubble team and this is a huge game for them. Houston wants revenge after they blew a late lead at Cincinnati in the meeting earlier this year. Additionally, both of these teams have four losses in the American Athletic Conference, and they are tied in the loss column with Tulsa at the top of the league. This game will go a long way toward deciding who wins the AAC regular season title. Houston has been great on defense of late. They have consistently had very low scoring games. The Cougars have had only one game go over this total in regulation in their last 13 games. That one game (Tulane) went over the total by one point. 11 of the 13 games have been 128 points or less in regulation. Look for solid defense here. Take the under.
02-29-20	Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 138		78-66	Loss	-109	17 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan State Spartans and Maryland Terrapins meet in a huge game for both teams. Michigan State still has an outside chance of winning the Big Ten, but they absolutely have to win this game. Maryland has been great of late, and the Terrapins have been most impressive on the defensive end. The first meeting between these two teams saw a game with only 64 possessions. The final in that one was 67-60. Late season games between two very good teams have been strong to the under in the past 10-15 years. This is angle that has been very profitable for me, and it fits this game nicely. Look for plenty of effort on defense here. Take the under.
02-29-20	San Francisco v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 131		69-67	Loss	-110	17 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Loyola Marymount is using 21.1 seconds on an average possession. That is some next level stalling. Their games have consistently been very low scoring. After starting the season really pushing the pace, San Francisco has slowed down quite a bit in recent weeks. The Dons let Loyola Marymount control the pace in the first meeting. It was a crawling speed of 57 possessions and finished 61-53. I don't see this pace being much faster. San Francisco has been elite in the league in 2 point defense. The way to beat them is making shots from outside. That isn't Loyola Marymount's game though. Look for a low scoring game with a very slow pace. Take the under.
02-29-20	Wyoming v. Fresno State OVER 129		55-63	Loss	-115	16 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Wyoming has drastically increased their tempo in the last seven contests. They were stalling for a long time throughout the season, but they have nothing to lose now and are pushing the pace much more. Wyoming has played all 7 of their last 7 games to a pace of 70 possessions. That really stands out when you realize that this team was averaging about 64 possessions per game before this recent stretch. Fresno State and Wyoming have little to play for here, and that generally leads to less defense and a quicker pace. Wyoming hasn't had a game go under this number in their last seven games. Fresno State has seen 10 straight games get over this total. Take the over.
02-29-20	BYU v. Pepperdine OVER 155		81-64	Loss	-109	14 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The first game between these two was 107-80. Pepperdine's transition defense is weak and BYU can take advantage. Pepperdine also struggles defending the 3 ball, and no one in the country is better from long range than BYU. Pepperdine likes to push the pace, and BYU has sped up their tempo as the season has moved along. There's no reason to expect anything other than a track meet here. This number has dropped to a level where I have to play the over in this contest. Take the over.
02-29-20	Western Illinois v. Denver OVER 154		63-69	Loss	-109	18 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Western Illinois Leathernecks (great name) have allowed 85 points or more in four straight games. They have allowed 83 points or more in 7 of their last 10 contests. Western Illinois is 348th out of 353 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are allowing a ridiculous 1.158 points per possession in Summit League play. Denver is first in the league in tempo. The Pioneers are giving up 1.099 points per possession in league play too, so these are two bad defenses. These two teams rank first and third in the league in overall tempo. This game means nothing to this teams. Both teams have been terrible all year (both 2-13 in the league). These late season games between two bad teams have been good for over bettors in the long term. The first meeting between these two finished with 166 points. Take the over.
02-29-20	North Alabama v. Florida Gulf Coast OVER 126.5	Top	78-73	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over This is the final regular season for both of these teams. North Alabama has picked up their tempo considerably late in the season. North Alabama is first in the Atlantic Sun in average possession length. As quick as they have been playing this is a very low total. North Alabama has been over this total in 9 of their last 10 games. The first game between these two teams was played at a fast paced 71 possessions. This is a questionable motivation game for both teams. That is a clear positive for the over. I had this game several points higher than this number. Take the over. I would play this for 5 stars up to 129 and for 4 stars above that
02-27-20	Pacific v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 123		60-53	Win	100	19 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The final score in the last three meetings between these two teams are as follows: 60-42, 63-56, and 62-50. All three of those games were played at a pace of 59 possessions or fewer. That's about as slow as you'll ever see. I don't see any reason to expect anything different here. Loyola Marymount has slowed things down to a crawl in recent weeks. They are using 21.4 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. Pacific's defensive improvement this year is drastic. The Tigers were 320th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 117th this year. Look for a low scoring contest. Take the under.
02-27-20	Portland State v. Idaho State OVER 152		89-76	Win	100	18 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Over These two teams rank near the top of the list in second chance point opportunities, and both of these defenses rank near the bottom of second chance opportunities allowed. If we go back and look at the first meeting between these two one thing really stands out. Idaho State had 21 offensive rebounds. Portland State had 19 offensive rebounds. That's about as many offensive rebounds in one game as you will ever see. Portland State presses and looks to get quick points off their steals from pressure, and Idaho State turns the ball over a lot. Portland State has been able to dictate tempo very well of late. Portland State has scored 81 points or more in six of their last seven contests overall. Take the over here.
02-27-20	St. Peter's v. Niagara UNDER 133		54-63	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The first meeting between these two teams played to an extremely slow pace of just 61 possessions. The final score was 58-53. This one likely won't be that low, but I do think this total is set too high. St. Peter's is tied at the top of the MAAC, and they certainly should be ready to go in this one. The Peacocks defense is the main reason they are at the top of the standings. St. Peter's has allowed just 54 points per game in their last three games. St. Peter's turns the ball over too much on offense to be all that efficient. Niagara doesn't generate hardly any second chance points. Take the under here.
02-26-20	Arkansas State v. UL - Lafayette OVER 149.5		74-77	Win	100	18 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were without both Mylik Wilson and Trajan Wesley for a significant amount of time this year. In their games without these guys they clearly slowed the pace down because they were shorthanded. Since the Ragin' Cajuns have gotten healthier they are back to playing at a very fast pace. Louisiana has played six straight games to a pace of 70 possessions or quicker. Their last five games have finished with 153 points or more. Arkansas State is great at getting to the line. The Red Wolves rank first in the country in FTA/FGA. Arkansas State ranks last in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. Arkansas State has seen 159 points or more in three of their last six games. I'll look for the recent trend of Louisiana high scoring games to continue here. Take the over.
02-26-20	Rhode Island v. Fordham UNDER 123.5		76-75	Loss	-109	17 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This is a low total, but it is low for a reason. Fordham has seen 10 of their 14 games in the conference stay under this number. They are the worst offense in the Atlantic 10 by a mile. Fordham is averaging only 0.821 points per possession. The Rams are using 20.1 seconds of the shot clock on average. They are the slowest paced team in the Atlantic 10. Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in defensive efficiency. They have held several teams to below 0.8 points per possession already this year. The Rams are capable of holding Fordham to a very low number here. Rhode Island plays St. Louis and Dayton in their next two after this one. They may have less incentive to keep their foot on the gas late in this contest. Take the under.
02-23-20	Siena v. Fairfield UNDER 128		62-59	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Fairfield Stags play at the slowest pace of any team in the MAAC, and it isn't even close. Fairfield plays two possessions per game slower than anyone else in the league. They are using more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession. Fairfield is averaging a terrible 0.891 points per possession in MAAC play. This is a team who turns it over a lot and shoots the ball poorly. Siena was playing pretty quick earlier this year, but they are down to 9th out of 11 teams in the MAAC in tempo. The Saints have given up 49 and 52 points in two of their last four games. This team has been getting better defensively. They are about to play a really weak Fairfield offense. The first game between these two finished at 114 points. The shooting numbers were just a tick lower than average. Even if you normalize the shooting numbers, you'd come up with a number in the low 120's. Fairfield has had 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. In fact, those 7 games have all finished at 121 points or less. Take the under.
02-22-20	Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 141		73-72	Loss	-110	20 h 27 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks and Arizona Wildcats square off in a game that could decide the Pac 12. Both of these teams have proven they have a high upside. Still, neither team has been all that consistent. Oregon has been slowing the tempo down in recent weeks. The Ducks have been far less efficient shooting the ball in their last few contests as well. Pritchard is having to do too much. Arizona is a good defensive team, and they have played to the pace of their opponent of late. In the first game between these two, the score was 66-66 before going into overtime. This is a late season game between two very good teams who have a lot to play for. I tend to lean under in those spots, and here I think the under is a good value. Take the under.
02-22-20	Georgia State v. Texas State UNDER 144.5		76-86	Loss	-110	16 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas State Bobcats didn't play up to expectations earlier this year. Why? Their defense wasn't as good as normal. They have fixed that problem quite nicely in recent weeks. Texas State has allowed 66 points or less in 12 straight games though, and they are elite at forcing turnovers. Georgia State is a good team, but turnovers is a relative weakness for them. Georgia State is first in the Sun Belt in effective field goal percentage defense. Texas State is first in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. Texas State let Georgia State get their preferred tempo too much in the first game. Look for the Bobcats to fight harder to slow this game down. They are at home and are favored here. Both of these teams still have a chance to win the Sun Belt, so this is a very important contest for both teams. Take the under.
02-22-20	Houston v. Memphis UNDER 139		59-60	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Houston Cougars defense has been elite in recent weeks. This has been a great under team of late. How good? All 12 of Houston's last 12 games have stayed under this posted total. While Memphis does like to push the pace, they aren't efficient on offense, and they are very solid on defense. Houston has slowed their tempo down a great deal in conference play. They are using 19.1 seconds of the shot clock in an average possession. Memphis is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Houston is 10th in the nation in that same statistic. Open shots should be hard to come by here. Take the under.
02-22-20	Hampton v. Winthrop OVER 160		87-81	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The first meeting between Hampton and Winthrop finished at 116-95. That's about the average score for an NBA game. It was an all out track meet in that game. The two teams aren't likely to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting, but I would expect another track meet here. Hampton ranks 348th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have allowed 80 points or more in 9 of their 14 games in the conference. Winthrop plays the quickest of any team in the league on offense and they are first in offensive efficiency as well. Winthrop should put up a big number. Winthrop's biggest weakness on defense is fouling too much. That helps Hampton a lot. Hampton ranks 8th in the nation in FT/FGA. Look for another very high scoring game between these two. Take the over.
02-22-20	Marquette v. Providence UNDER 142.5		72-84	Loss	-110	11 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Providence Friars have slowed their tempo down a lot in Big East play, and it has worked very well. They tried to play quicker in non-conference play, and it didn't work out. Now they are back to trying to win games by forcing turnovers and switching up their defenses as Ed Cooley has done for many years. Providence is 9th out of 10 teams in the Big East in tempo. The Friars are 11-3 to the under on this posted total in Big East play. Marquette is very reliant on Markus Howard. He's a great player, but against a good defense that is well-coached they generally have a good plan to at least slow down the leading scoring option. The Golden Eagles have been less efficient on offense than they were a year ago. The first game between these two was well under the total before it went into overtime. I think this number is a few points too high. Take the under.
02-21-20	Sacred Heart v. Merrimack UNDER 129		57-64	Win	100	5 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Merrimack Warriors have been an under machine. Merrimack's games have finished regulation on or below this number in ten straight games. The Warriors have only played one game that went above this posted total since the start of 2020. Merrimack's zone press that actually slows the game down and their strong 2-3 zone have really made it hard on opposing offenses. Merrimack is first in the NEC in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Sacred Heart is their opponent tonight, and Sacred Heart is third in the conference in defensive efficiency. Merrimack is the slowest paced team in the league, and the Warriors should be able to control the tempo here. They did in the first game when they knocked off Sacred Heart 65-57. There has been over money on Merrimack's last few games, and they have all gone under the total. The number has been pushed higher again here, and I will once again play the under. Take the under.
02-20-20	Oral Roberts v. Denver OVER 152		96-100	Win	100	19 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Denver Pioneers are first in the Summit League in average possession length (quickest pace). The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are 2nd in the Summit League in average possession length. Both of these teams will be looking to push the pace in this contest. In the first meeting between these two teams earlier this year, the final was 86-77. I see a similar score as that one being a real possibility here. Oral Roberts has scored 80 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Denver has allowed 82 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pioneers are giving up a lot of second chance points. This is a late season game that means little to these two teams. It would be surprising if it were anything but a fast paced game with both teams getting a lot of open looks. Take the over.
02-20-20	Hartford v. New Hampshire UNDER 133		63-67	Win	100	17 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Hampshire Wildcats are 314th in offensive efficiency (out of 353 teams in the country). Hartford is 323rd in offensive efficiency. These two teams both take a lot of three point jumpers, and they have both been bad from 3 point range this season. Hartford has been especially bad offensively on the road. Hartford has played 6 of their last 8 games under this posted total. New Hampshire has seen 9 of their last 12 games stay under this total in regulation. In the last four meetings between these two teams, the highest scoring game was 121 total points. They have a good history of slowing each other down. Take the under.
02-19-20	Villanova v. DePaul UNDER 141.5		91-71	Loss	-110	20 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Villanova Wildcats started the season off playing quickly. Villanova ranked in the top 100 in average possession length in the first eight games of the year. That has changed in a big way as the season has moved along. Villanova now ranks 276th in average possession length and 285th in overall tempo (out of 353 teams in the country). Against this total, the under is 12-3 in Villanova's last 15 games in regulation overall. DePaul and Villanova played a game that was only 67-67 at the end of regulation the first time around. DePaul was good offensively and atrocious defensively last year. The opposite is true this season. The Blue Demons are 52nd in the nation in defensive efficiency this year. On offense, they are 206th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Blue Demons turn the ball over far too much as well. Villanova very rarely fouls and they don't give up many second chance scoring opportunities. The Wildcats haven't shot the ball quite as well on the road this year as they have at home. Take the under here.
02-18-20	Baylor v. Oklahoma UNDER 135		65-54	Win	100	19 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Baylor Bears defense ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Baylor has controlled games with their strong defense. Oklahoma is 212th in effective field goal percentage offense, so the Sooners aren't a very good shooting team. The Sooners do try to speed the game up a bit, but they are playing slower than they did a year ago. Baylor is 290th in average possession length on offense. The Bears have Macio Teague banged up as well. He might play here, but he isn't 100 percent. Oklahoma is great at defending without fouling (3rd best in the country), and Baylor is far better than average in that category as well (93rd in the nation). The first game between these two went to 118 points and was played very slowly. This game is likely a bit higher scoring, but this totals number is too high in my opinion. Take the under.
02-18-20	Mt. St. Mary's v. Wagner UNDER 133.5		61-67	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers are using 20.1 seconds of the shot clock on average in conference play. They rank among the 10 slowest paced teams in the nation. Wagner has shown they want to play slowly this year when they aren't down big. Wagner's tempo at home has been drastically slower than on the road, which is largely because they have been in the game and can keep the pace slower. The last three games between these two teams have finished at 126 points, 114 points, and 113 points. I don't see a reason to expect a higher scoring game here. Both teams want to play slowly, and neither team is particularly good on offense. Take the under.
02-18-20	Merrimack v. Bryant UNDER 128		52-61	Win	100	17 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Merrimack Warriors are tremendous at slowing the pace of their game with their full court press and zone defense. Merrimack shifts around in their press hoping to slow their opponent and waiting for a turnover if the opposition tries to get down the court too quickly with the long pass. Merrimack was 14/24 from 3 point range in their last game, and that game still went under the total by a point. Merrimack shoots the ball very poorly on average, and they shoot the ball much worse on the road. In the first game between these two both teams shot the ball much better than they normally do. The pace was played at Merrimack's liking, but the shooting numbers sent it over the total. Merrimack's highest scoring road game in the conference is 127 total points (regulation). Five of their seven road contests in conference have finished at 116 points or less. Bryant is an above average defense and they are likely to waste quite a few possessions on offense with turnovers. Take the under.
02-15-20	Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton OVER 138		101-105	Win	100	6 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The first time these two teams met this season, the score was 93-93 at the end of regulation. I don't expect a score that high again but I do think this total is set too low. Cal State Fullerton and Cal Poly are first and second in the Big West in free throw attempts. Both teams had a lot of trips to the line in the first meeting. Both of these teams have gradually sped up their pace of play in the last few weeks. If we looked only at recent contests this number should be in the 140's. Take the over.
02-15-20	Wagner v. Merrimack UNDER 128		59-68	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Merrimack plays a strong zone defense and is great at forcing their style of play on opponents. The Warriors have found a way to make nearly every game very low scoring. Wagner is bad offensively and even worse against zone defenses. They rank in the fifth percentile in the country in offensive efficiency against the zone. Wagner is also happy to play at a slow just like Merrimack. Both teams are prone to long scoring droughts. Look for a low scoring contest here. Take the under.
02-13-20	Charlotte v. North Texas OVER 126		72-81	Win	100	5 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Over North Texas is first in Conference USA in offensive efficiency. The Mean Green have a lot of very good shooters on the outside. They have three high volume shooters who are above 39% from long range. The Mean Green are averaging 1.153 points per possession inside Conference USA play. Charlotte's defense is decent, but they have played a very weak slate of offenses, and I think their numbers will regress toward the mean. Both North Texas and Charlotte are 9-3 to the over in Conference USA action at this posted total. Though both teams do play slowly, they have been good enough on offense to get over this low total most of the time. Charlotte does a good job getting to the line and North Texas fouls about as much as anyone in the league. Take the over here.
02-12-20	Marquette v. Villanova UNDER 146		71-72	Win	100	20 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marquette Golden Eagles take on the Villanova Wildcats on Wednesday night. The Big East has been a very strong conference this year, and it has led to great competition. This should be another game played at a very high level. The last three meetings between Marquette and Villanova have stayed well below this posted total. They have finished at 131 points, 128 points, and 131 points. Villanova has slowed their tempo down a lot in Big East play this year. The Wildcats have only seen one total in their last 13 games go over this total in regulation. Villanova's defense ranks second in the Big East. The Wildcats have been good at slowing the pace down. Marquette typically relies heavily on getting to the free throw line on offense, but Villanova is arguably the best team in the conference at defending without fouling. The Villanova offense is good, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they have been in previous seasons. This number is a few points too high. Take the under.
02-08-20	Alabama A&M v. Arkansas-Pine Bluff UNDER 123		58-54	Win	100	7 h 48 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions are dead last in the country in offensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Pine Bluff is averaging a miserable 0.797 points per possession on the year. Pine Bluff has played 20 games against Division I teams this year. They have scored 50 points or less in 15 of those 20 games! This is a horrendous team on offense. Not surprisingly, Pine Bluff is trying to slow games down. They are 9th out of 10 in the SWAC in tempo. Alabama A&M is 10th in the SWAC in tempo. They beat Pine Bluff 59-49 earlier this year at home. That game had only 61 possessions. This game should be played at a similar pace. Barring much higher than average shooting numbers or overtime, I see this one staying under the total. Take the under.
02-08-20	Merrimack v. Long Island UNDER 132		64-67	Win	100	16 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Merrimack Warriors have been an under machine. Merrimack has seen 10 of their last 11 games finish at 129 points or less. The Warriors set up a full court zone press to try to slow the pace of the game. If they get a steal in the backcourt they'll try to score quickly. Otherwise, they set up a very methodical halfcourt offense. Merrimack has shot the ball very poorly all season long. Long Island wants to push the pace. Still, several teams have shown the ability to slow the game down against LIU. Mount St. Mary's has done it twice. Merrimack did it in their first meeting as well. I think Merrimack's zone will slow this game down as well. This is a little too high of a number given Merrimack's consistency at getting very low scoring contests. Take the under.
02-08-20	North Carolina A&T v. Bethune-Cookman OVER 153		73-78	Loss	-110	21 h 2 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The NC A&T Aggies and Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are first and second in the MEAC in tempo. These two teams met a few weeks ago. The final score in that game was 98-95. There were a whopping 89 possessions in that game. This one will be played very quickly as well. Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defending without fouling. Both of these teams are aggressive at getting to the line. I had this one in the upper 150's. Take the over.
02-08-20	North Carolina Central v. Coppin State UNDER 135		68-63	Win	100	3 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Coppin State is 346th out of 353 teams in the nation in offensive efficiency. Coppin State plays quickly, but against good defenses they have struggled in a big way to score. North Carolina Central is the best defense in the MEAC, and it isn't even close. NC Central is allowing only 0.845 points per possession in league play. NC Central has only had one league game go over this total so far this year. Last year when these two teams met the final was 124 points. Both teams are worse on offense and better on defense than a year ago. Take the under.
02-08-20	North Texas v. UAB OVER 126.5		71-64	Win	100	14 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in Conference USA in offensive efficiency. The North Texas offense sometimes struggles against teams that can force a lot of turnovers but that is not UAB. North Texas has a lot of offensive advantages all over the floor in this one. The UAB Blazers shooting numbers have been way down this year. Their 3 point percentages should regress to the mean between now and the end of the season. While North Texas is elite on offense, their defense has been inconsistent. I don't expect this to be a high scoring game, but this posted total is too low for me to pass up a play on the over. Take the over.
02-06-20	BYU v. Portland OVER 146.5		85-54	Loss	-105	20 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Portland Pilots have been playing faster and faster by the game of late. Portland's defense is laying down and giving up huge numbers to everyone. BYU is a prolific offense this year. BYU ranks 5th in the country in points per possession this year. They have a bunch of great outside shooters, and Portland is terrible at defending beyond the arc. BYU won 96-70 when these two played a few weeks ago. The Cougars should score at a very high clip again. Portland has given up 77 points or more in each of their last five games. None of the teams they played in those games are as good offensively as BYU. The pace of the game should allow Portland to score enough here as well. Take the over.
02-06-20	Lipscomb v. North Alabama OVER 138.5		73-71	Win	100	22 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Alabama Lions have been playing very quickly. North Alabama is first in the Atlantic Sun in tempo. They have seen 9 of their last 11 games finish at 70 possessions or quicker. Two of their last three games were 78 and 77 possessions. Lipscomb has been creating a lot of quick scoring chances with their defense. North Alabama turns it over often. I think Lipscomb should get in transition quite a bit in this one. In fact, both teams are good at creating steals in the open floor. The first game between these two went to 151 points. I don't project quite that many here, but this number is several points too low. Take the over.
02-05-20	Wisconsin v. Minnesota UNDER 129		52-70	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Wisconsin Badgers rank 348th out of 353 teams in the country in terms of tempo. It is no secret that this Wisconsin team is great at forcing their style of play. They want the game played completely in the halfcourt. Minnesota is 297th in tempo this year. In past years, the Golden Gophers liked to push the ball more, but they have slowed down significantly this year. Having a great defensive big man in Oturu has also helped Minnesota's defensive efficiency a great deal. They were 155th in effective field goal percentage defense two years ago. They were 121st last year. They have jumped all the way up to #48 in the country this year. Neither of these teams get to the line much at all. Both teams have been excellent at defending without fouling as well. These two teams have also done a good job at not giving up quick second chance scoring opportunities off of offensive rebounds. This number has been bet up to where there is good value on the under. Take the under here.
02-05-20	Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 137		68-104	Loss	-105	19 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers are excellent at forcing their opponent to play at Purdue's preferred tempo. They have played 11 Big 10 conference games so far this season, and only 1 of those games has gone over this posted total in regulation. In fact, 9 of their 11 Big 10 games have been 128 total points or lower in regulation. Iowa does play quicker than many of their Big 10 opponents, but the Hawkeyes offense is slightly less dangerous without Jordan Bohannon. Iowa's defense is improved from a couple seasons ago as well. Look for a fairly slow pace in this one, and I believe this total is a few points too high. Take the under.
02-03-20	South Carolina State v. North Carolina A&T OVER 146		63-78	Loss	-109	22 h 11 m	Show

02-01-20	Tennessee State v. Tennessee Tech OVER 143		72-67	Loss	-110	26 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over In the last couple years, Tennessee State has preferred to play at a quick tempo. They should get their wish against Tennessee Tech on Saturday night. Tennessee Tech stalled in non-conference action against bigger named schools, but they have picked up the pace quite a bit in OVC play. Neither of these teams are very good on the defensive end. Unless both teams are missing a lot of open looks, I would expect this one to get past the posted total. Take the over.
02-01-20	Norfolk State v. North Carolina A&T OVER 134		68-74	Win	100	21 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Over North Carolina A&T has decided to drastically increase their pace of play in conference action. Their games are still being lined too low by the oddsmakers. In their last contest, the under cashed solely because both teams shot a woeful 33% from the free throw line. Norfolk State has one of the most efficient offenses in the MEAC. I don’t see North Carolina A&T being able to slow them down here. Take the over.
01-30-20	UAB v. Texas-San Antonio OVER 146.5		76-68	Loss	-110	23 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners rank 18th in the country in overall tempo. UTSA has played seven straight games that have gone over this number. The Roadrunners have been great at forcing the game to be played at their pace. Additionally, UTSA ranked 119th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. This year they are all the way down at 318th in that same ranking. Their defense has gotten much worse. UAB is shooting only 26.5% from 3 point range in CUSA play so far this year. The Blazers are due to experience positive regression from long range. They are up against a weak defense in this one. The Blazers haven’t faced many teams as quick as UTSA, and that has helped keep this total down. Take the over.
01-29-20	Vanderbilt v. Kentucky UNDER 145		62-71	Win	100	25 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats have a top two or three defense in the SEC. Kentucky is going to give a lot of teams trouble with their length and athleticism. Vanderbilt is without their star outside shooter Aaron Nesmith. They haven't scored more than 64 points in any game he has missed this year. Their shooting numbers have dropped significantly. In addition, they are slowing the pace down. Kentucky should have a nice lead here and slow the pace down themselves. Take the under.
01-28-20	Villanova v. St. John's UNDER 147.5		79-59	Win	100	4 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Villanova Wildcats are playing more than 1.5 seconds per possession slower in conference play compared to non-conference action. Villanova has been winning a lot of low scoring contests in the Big East. They have played 8 Big East games, and all 8 of them have been 146 points or less in regulation. Seven of the eight have been 137 points or less. St. John's definitely pushes the pace, and they'll do their best to force the issue here. It is important to note though that their offense has been very weak. St. John's is 317th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Five of their eight Big East games have finished with 145 points or less. Villanova doesn't turn the ball over often, which should limit St. John's opportunities in transition. I think this number is several points too high. Take the under.
01-27-20	Delaware State v. North Carolina A&T OVER 154		67-82	Loss	-110	26 h 40 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Carolina A&T Aggies have turned the tempo up in a big way in conference play. North Carolina A&T is using less than 14 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession in conference play. Delaware State is 5th in the nation in overall tempo. They aren't about to try to slow the game down. They are averaging 77 possessions per game in conference action. North Carolina A&T is averaging an insane 81.9 possessions per game in conference play. These two teams just played a 98-77 game two weeks ago. Both teams are among the 30 worst teams in the country at defending without fouling. Take the over here.
01-26-20	UCLA v. Oregon UNDER 133		75-96	Loss	-110	11 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UCLA Bruins have definitely slowed their pace of play down a lot in Pac 12 action. Mick Cronin's team doesn't have enough firepower to try to win shootouts. Cronin is slowly getting this team to play better defense as well. Oregon has consistently been a good under team in conference action. That is especially true when they are a home favorite. The under is 28-13 in the Ducks last 41 conference games as a home favorite of 8 points or more. When you move that to a home favorite of 11 points or more the under is 16-4. The Ducks have had 66 points or less at the end of regulation in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the under here.
01-25-20	Washington v. Colorado UNDER 130		62-76	Loss	-109	17 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Huskies zone defense is very difficult to deal with. This matchup zone is going to make just about anyone very uncomfortable. Without Green, the Washington offense which wasn't very good to begin with is even worse. The Huskies have slowed their tempo down a lot without Green as well. Colorado ranks top 20 in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes are likely to make Washington work very hard for their shots here. Look for a low scoring game with solid defense from both sides. Take the under.
01-25-20	Oral Roberts v. South Dakota OVER 153		80-91	Win	100	1 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Summit League has been great to over bettors the last couple seasons. There is very little defense played here by anyone. The over is hitting at slightly better than 65% on totals in the Summit League at 153 or lower since 2017. Oral Roberts and South Dakota have both already been involved in a bunch of high scoring games this year. Both teams are more comfortable pushing the tempo than they are slowing things down. Last year's games between these two were 151 and 158 points. Both teams are significantly better on offense than they were last season. Take the over.
01-25-20	Bethune-Cookman v. North Carolina A&T OVER 147.5	Top	95-98	Win	100	21 h 15 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over The North Carolina A&T Aggies and Bethune Cookman Wildcats are set for a track meet on Saturday. I'm confident this will be a very fast paced game. North Carolina A&T is playing 3 seconds per possession faster in the conference than in non-conference action. Bethune Cookman is 19th out of 153 in tempo themselves. This could be a 79 or 80 possessions type of game. I don't think oddsmakers have caught up with NC A&T's recent pace increase yet. I make this game in the mid 150's. Take the over.
01-25-20	NC-Greensboro v. Samford OVER 143.5		70-63	Loss	-109	11 h 33 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The UNC Greensboro Spartans have a very underrated full court press. They are consistently forcing their opponent to turn it over at a clip of 25% or higher of their overall possessions in the game. The Spartans are great at then turning those steals into quick points. Samford is very sloppy with the basketball and they love to play quickly. The meetings between these two teams in the last couple years have been very high scoring. Samford is good at getting to the line, and they should get to the line at a pretty good clip here. Samford's halfcourt defense is absolutely atrocious. UNC Greensboro should get a bunch of easy looks near the hoop. Look for a quick tempo here. Take the over.
01-23-20	Cal Poly v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 125		64-97	Loss	-109	7 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UC Riverside Highlanders decided in the offseason to put the focus on defense. David Patrick's team had always played slowly and looked to win low scoring games, but they were never as good defensively as they are this season. The Highlanders rank 121st in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Last year, they ranked 326th. Cal Poly has a new coach in John Smith. He also wanted his team to work on defense since they were dreadful on defense last season. Cal Poly has been good in the conference so far on defense. In fact, they rank second in Big West action in defensive efficiency. Cal Poly is 256th out of 353 in the country in average possession length, so they play slowly. UC Riverside is 348th out of 353, so they are stalling in a big way. These two teams rank 296th and 340th in offensive efficiency. With a very slow pace and two improved defenses, I expect a very low scoring game. Take the under.
01-23-20	Morehead State v. Tennessee Tech OVER 134		59-71	Loss	-109	17 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles couldn't score in the non-conference schedule. They played very slowly because they were up against teams that just had too much talent for them. The Golden Eagles are now in OVC play and playing against much weaker teams. They have decided to pick up their pace a lot. Tennessee Tech has seen 9 of their last 10 games go over this posted total. The lone game that stayed under this number was 133 points. Morehead State is due for some positive regression on offense. The Eagles shot 33.6% from 3 point range a year ago, but they are only at 27.7% this season. Morehead State has gone over this total in 8 of their last 9 games. These teams played earlier this month and the final was 83-72. Neither team much defense at all, and this is a low total. Take the over.
01-23-20	Washington v. Utah UNDER 136		66-67	Win	100	16 h 53 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Utah Utes have dramatic splits against man defense compared to zone defense. The Utes are far better against man defense. Utah scored only 53 and 45 points in their two games against Washington last year. Utah easily ranked first in the Pac 12 in offensive efficiency a year ago, but they couldn't solve the Washington matchup zone. Utah is weaker offensively this year, and they are slightly better on defense than a year ago. Washington has slowed their pace down a lot without Quade Green running the show in their last few games. In fact, Washington's games have finished with 112, 116, 119, 120, and 125 points in the five games without Green in the backcourt. Two of those games went into overtime, and they were still that low scoring. Washington's defense is excellent, but their offense has been a mess much of the year. Green was a facilitator for this team, but he is out of the lineup now. I made this number several points lower. Take the under.
01-23-20	Campbell v. Hampton OVER 147		74-83	Win	100	15 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Hampton Pirates offense struggled earlier this year. Why? They were without superstar Jermaine Marrow. With Marrow back in the fold, this Hampton team is pushing the pace much more and they have a lot of scoring capability. Hampton's games have finished with 177 points, 156 points, 163 points, 211 points, and 174 points since Marrow has been back on the floor. Campbell is playing a couple possessions per game faster in conference action than they did in non-conference play. The Fighting Camels main problem on offense is turnovers, but Hampton doesn't force many of those. Hampton ranks 346th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have allowed at least 80 points in each of their last five games. Campbell and Hampton both rank among the worst teams in the country in fouls committed on defense. A quick pace and plenty of free throws here. Take the over.
01-22-20	Memphis v. Tulsa UNDER 140		40-80	Win	100	6 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Memphis Tigers are 1st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Memphis has been winning on the strength of their defense. The Tigers are second in the nation in block percentage. They are first in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Tulsa is a team that relies on shooting it from inside because they don't have many outside threats. Tulsa wants to slow the pace down. They are using a full second more of the shot clock on average in conference play than they did in non-conference action. The Golden Hurricane are much better on defense than offense as well. They are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense and only 143rd in effective field goal percentage offense. Tulsa has played five AAC games so far this year. All five of those games finished at 124 points or less. This number has been pushed up to a point where I have to bet the under. Memphis has played a bit slower of late, and the Tigers offense has turned it over on 24.2% of their possessions in conference. Take the under.
01-22-20	George Washington v. Fordham UNDER 123.5		54-59	Win	100	4 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Fordham Rams have been awful on offense all year. They lost Chuba Ohams, one of their top two scoring options to a season ending injury. Fordham has also been without Antwon Portley and Erten Gazi the last few games. Those two are both questionable today, and they would at the very least be less than 100 percent. Fordham has played eight games under this total, and many of those were with their top scoring options. The Rams can create a lot of turnovers and play above average defense. They are a bottom ten offense in the entire nation though. Fordham ranks in the bottom ten in the nation in tempo. George Washington is a bottom 50 tempo team. They are coached by Jamion Christian, who coached Siena last year and they finished last year as the second slowest paced team in the country. A very slow pace and a lot of wasted possessions and bad shots. Take the under.
01-21-20	Illinois v. Purdue UNDER 127.5		79-62	Loss	-109	6 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a poor effort against Maryland. I think we'll see a much better effort defensively from Purdue here. The Boilermakers slow the game down more than any other team in the Big Ten outside of Wisconsin. Purdue is 346th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. Purdue's offense hasn't been good at all in the Big Ten. In fact, in seven Big Ten games the Boilermakers have only scored more than 0.97 points per possession in two of those contests. Purdue's defense ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency, so they are very good on that end of the floor. Illinois is a completely different team than they were last year. The Fighting Illini are the third slowest paced team in the Big Ten in terms of average possession length behind only Wisconsin and Purdue. This Illini team is much better on defense than they have been the last couple years. It certainly helps that they have Kofi Cockburn on the inside with his 7'0 and 290 lb frame scaring people away from driving the lane. Brad Underwood's team has also switched to a less aggressive defense, and that has led to far fewer fouls on Illinois. Both Purdue and Illinois rank in the top 20 in the nation in free throws attempts allowed per 100 trips up the court for opponents. A slow pace here, and the defenses are better than the offenses. Take the under.
01-20-20	North Carolina A&T v. Morgan State OVER 140		76-70	Win	100	6 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Carolina A&T Aggies have really ramped up their pace in conference. Their average game in the conference has been 81 possessions, which is a blistering fast pace. This one likely won't be that fast, but NC A&T and Morgan State rank 1st and 2nd in the conference in free throw attempts. What about fouling on defense? NC A&T is 318th in defending without fouling. Morgan State is dead last. The Bears have allowed more free throws than anyone else. A total set this low with two teams who play quickly and both get to the line and foul a lot is pretty rare. Take the over.
01-18-20	BYU v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5		69-92	Win	100	17 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The BYU Cougars have changed gears on offense in the last few contests. BYU is playing extremely fast in their last few games. Yoeli Childs' absence might have made this team prefer to pick up the pace. BYU has all kinds of shooting options on the floor at all times, and even against a good defense in Gonzaga, I would expect BYU to be pretty efficient on offense. This Gonzaga team is elite on offense and good, but not great on defense. Gonzaga can make BYU's defense pay for their lack of a good frontcourt defender now. The Zags take good care of the basketball, and they love to get out in transition. Take the over.
01-18-20	Tennessee v. Vanderbilt UNDER 137		66-45	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Tennessee and Vanderbilt are both without their best offensive player due to an injury. Lamonte Turner is out for Tennessee and Aaron Nesmith is out for Vanderbilt. Turner was the heart and soul of the Vols offense. Without him, the Vols have been inefficient. Tennessee has scored 0.95 points per possession or less in three of their five games without him. They haven't had a single game where they averaged more than 1.05 points per possession without Turner. Nesmith was shooting 52% from the 3 point line this year, and he was clearly Vanderbilt's best scoring option. In their first two games without him, Vanderbilt has scored 0.79 and 0.79 points per possession. The Commodores have looked lost on offense. This is a rivalry game and there should be plenty of effort on defense. Take the under.
01-18-20	Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 144		63-67	Loss	-105	13 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Western Michigan Broncos have a great long term totals system going in home MAC games. Western Michigan has played significantly faster paced games at home in conference action than on the road. The Broncos have been an over machine in the MAC at home. How good has the system been? The over is 33-10 in the last 43 home games for Western Michigan with a total of 156 or lower. These games haven't been squeaking over the total either, they have been sailing way past the number. Western Michigan is aggressive and has been able to make a living at the line on their home floor. The Broncos defense is terrible though, and Kent State has a big edge on the offensive end. The pace here should be quick the whole way. Take the over.
01-18-20	Tennessee Tech v. Eastern Illinois OVER 136.5		59-84	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have sped up their pace of play in a big way in the last few weeks. This team clearly was slowing things down in the non-conference action against much better teams. Now, they are playing against far weaker teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. They have a chance in these games, and therefore they have decided to get things moving pace wise. Eastern Illinois is playing quicker than a year ago as well. The Tenn Tech defense has been terrible all season. Eastern Illinois should get some easy looks near the basket against a Tech frontcourt that is undersized and not good defensively. Take the over.
01-18-20	Georgia Southern v. South Alabama UNDER 142.5		68-74	Win	100	21 h 43 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The South Alabama Jaguars have dramatically slowed their pace down in recent weeks. They are last in the Sun Belt in overall tempo. South Alabama has played six straight games to a total of 135 or lower. Georgia Southern is a fast paced team, but they aren't particularly efficient on offense. This is a game that I see being tightly contested. Neither team is very good at getting second chance points and this is a high total for the tempo that I expect this game will be played at. Take the under here.
01-18-20	North Carolina A&T v. Coppin State OVER 142		75-79	Win	100	19 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Carolina A&T Aggies have dramatically sped up their pace of play in conference. They were using 18 seconds of the shot clock on average in non-conference play, but they are using only 14.0 seconds of the shot clock in conference action. This team clearly wants to run. They'll be given a chance to play very fast here. Coppin State always likes to play quickly. The Eagles are the 9th fastest paced team in the country. Both teams foul a lot and the line here would suggest that overtime is at least a possibility. Take the over.
01-18-20	Ohio v. Eastern Michigan OVER 126.5		60-58	Loss	-105	19 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Eastern Michigan Eagles are playing a lot faster than they did a year ago. Eastern Michigan averaged 62.9 possessions per game last year. So far this season, they are averaging 69.0 possessions per game. They have been the second fastest paced team in the MAC this year. Ohio has been far better against zone defense as compared to man defense so far this year. They rank in the top 15 percent of teams in terms of efficiency scoring against a zone defense. Eastern Michigan plays zone almost all the time. Eastern Michigan is good at getting to the line a lot, and Ohio is good at getting second chance opportunities. The number here is a few points too low. Take the over.
01-18-20	Purdue v. Maryland UNDER 126		50-57	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers have been a tremendous under team this year. Purdue hasn't had a Big Ten game that has topped 126 points in regulation so far this season. Purdue is elite on defense, and only mediocre on the offensive end. Maryland's offense has really struggled of late. The Terrapins tempo which was quick earlier this year has slowed down a lot and they are settling for too many contested long range jumpers. Purdue is 6th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Maryland is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Two great defenses and teams who are comfortable playing at a slow pace. If the two teams don't shoot the ball great here, I like our chances with the under. Take the under.
01-18-20	South Carolina v. Texas A&M UNDER 128.5		81-67	Loss	-110	9 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas A&M Aggies have only had three games all year go over this total. Buzz Williams has this team buying in on the defensive end of the floor. They are contesting shots very well. South Carolina always plays very hard for Frank Martin. The Gamecocks are limited on offense, but they are an excellent team defense. Texas A&M is 326th in effective field goal percentage offense. South Carolina is 284th in that same statistic. These are not good offenses at all. A sloppy game where both teams find it difficult to get open looks. Take the under.
01-16-20	Tennessee Tech v. SIU-Edwardsville OVER 133.5		72-69	Win	100	4 h 28 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are 336th in the nation in defensive efficiency (out of 353 teams). Tennessee Tech is 316th in defensive efficiency. These are two really bad defenses and a very low posted total with those things being considered. Tennessee Tech was stalling on offense in non-conference action, but they have picked up their pace dramatically in conference play. Both of these teams rank among the worst 10 teams in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. They are giving up a lot of second chance buckets. Bad defense plus second chance opportunities makes me look toward the over. With the line move down today I'm backing the over at this price. Edwardsville has had their last five games go over this total. Four of those five games finished at 150 points or higher. Tech has had six of their last seven games go over this total. Take the over.
01-16-20	Winthrop v. Hampton OVER 155.5		116-95	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Hampton Pirates season long offensive numbers don't look great. They are good, but not great. Those are misleading though, since star scorer Jermaine Marrow has missed half of Hampton's games this year. Hampton is a completely different offense with Marrow on the floor. He is one of the very best scorers in the country. Hampton is playing the fastest of any team in the Big South. They are using only 15.3 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. Winthrop is playing at the second fastest pace of any team in the conference. They are using only 15.8 seconds of the shot clock on average. Both games between these two were track meets last year, and I don't see any reason to expect anything other than a very fast pace for this one. Hampton is 10th in the nation in FT/FGA, and the single biggest weakness of the Winthrop defense is they put their opponent on the line far too often. Winthrop's offense has been rolling of late. They have scored 85 points or more in four of their last six games. They have seen 5 of their last 6 games finish with at least 158 points. Hampton's last three games (since Marrow came back from injury) have finished at 177, 156, and 163 points. Take the over.
01-16-20	William & Mary v. Delaware UNDER 146		77-68	Win	100	2 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Delaware Blue Hens aren't great defensively, but they are far better than they were a year ago on this end of the floor. Delaware was 277th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 142nd this year. Delaware prefers to play at a slow pace. They have been forced into some quicker games in the CAA so far, but they play a William & Mary team tonight that is playing the slowest of anyone in the league in conference action. William & Mary was 270th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are all the way up to 106th this year. Both teams are good on offense, and it is possible that they shoot lights out and beat this number, but at the pace I project (66 possessions), it would take both teams averaging more than 1.1 points per possession and that is pretty steep. Take the under.
01-16-20	Army v. Holy Cross UNDER 143		79-67	Loss	-105	2 h 8 m	Show
Army/Holy Cross under 143 3 Star Play Under The Holy Cross Crusaders had to change the way they play. Their new coach wanted to push the pace, but they just don't have enough quickness or talent on the roster yet. In the last few games, Holy Cross has dramatically slowed their pace of play down. Compared to early in the year, Holy Cross is using more than 3 seconds more per possession before they put up a shot. Army is also playing 1.5 seconds per possession slower than they were in the non-conference schedule. This total is a few points high based on the recent tempo trends alone, but I see a couple other reasons to like this one. Army is so inefficient on offense, but they really get after it on defense. Holy Cross has been very inconsistent on defense this year. Neither team gets to the line much at all, which is clearly a plus for the under. Take the under.

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