Sports Picks & Predictions

NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-01-15	Northern Iowa v. Evansville UNDER 129.5		49-52	Win	100	7 h 22 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Northern Iowa Panthers do a really nice job dictating the way the game is played. Northern Iowa slows the game down. Northern Iowa is actually playing at the fourth slowest pace of any team in the nation (351 teams). The Panthers also have a very good defense, so they play in a lot of low scoring games. They have played in three overtime games, which has made their final scores look higher than they should have been otherwise. Evansville hasn't played a defense as good as Northern Iowa yet this year. I think both teams will have to work hard for buckets here. Take the under.
12-31-14	Georgetown v. Xavier OVER 140		53-70	Loss	-105	8 h 21 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Xavier Musketeers and Georgetown Hoyas have both changed up the way they play this year. Georgetown has typically been a slow it down type of team. The Hoyas have more offensive weapons this year, and that has led them to pick up the tempo and play higher scoring games. Xavier has played relatively quick in the past, but they are playing faster this year and being even more efficient. Neither of these teams have been particularly good on defense this year. The over is 12-3-1 in Georgetown's last 16 road games. I had this number at 144 points. Take the over.
12-31-14	Minnesota v. Purdue OVER 147.5		68-72	Loss	-105	2 h 36 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total The Purdue Boilermakers and Minnesota Golden Gophers are two of the fastest paced teams in the Big Ten. Richard Pitino's team has upped the tempo in a big way this year, and they have had a lot of success from it. I don't expect them to go away from that tempo change. Their full court pressure should bother Purdue's young guards. At the same time, Minnesota gives up plenty of easy buckets because of their press as well. The Boilermakers aren't good defensively, and Minnesota's offensive efficiency has been tremendous in recent games. I had this number at 153 points. Take the over.
12-29-14	Toledo v. Duke OVER 148		69-86	Win	100	4 h 34 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The over is 13-6 in the Toledo Rockets last 19 games. Toledo plays fast no matter who they play against. Duke will be more than happy to play quickly here. The Blue Devils offense is also ranked number one in the nation in offensive efficiency. Duke can pile up the points in a hurry. Toledo's defense hasn't been good in the past few years, and they'll give up a bunch of points here. I think Duke gets to at least 90 points here, and the pace of the game should lead to Toledo scoring plenty too. The Rockets have several good scoring options. I had this number at 152. Take the over.
12-27-14	Kennesaw State v. Illinois OVER 140		45-93	Loss	-105	7 h 36 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Illinois Fighting Illini have beat up on lower opponents this year. Illinois has scored at least 88 points in four games against really bad opponents. I think they get up around that number again against a Kennesaw State team that likes to run and gun. Kennesaw State has allowed 89 points or more against all three top 50 teams they have played this year. Illinois is a top 50 team. The pace should be plenty quick in this one, so unless the shooting numbers are particularly low I see this one going over. I had this total at 144 points. Take the over.
12-21-14	Seton Hall v. Georgia OVER 138		47-65	Loss	-105	6 h 38 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Seton Hall Pirates have a young very talented team that has opened some eyes early this year. The Pirates are playing faster with their improved athleticism this season. Georgia has picked up the pace in a big way from last season. Mark Fox has the Bulldogs trying to get out and run. I feel like this line is set at a level where it should have been if these teams were playing last year rather than this year. Both offenses have gotten better and both teams are playing faster. I had this number at 142.5. The increased pace should make the difference here. Take the over.
12-20-14	Northern Iowa v. Iowa UNDER 132.5		56-44	Win	100	5 h 51 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Northern Iowa Panthers are great at controlling the tempo. Iowa likes to play fast, but the Hawkeyes have had lots of trouble scoring against top teams this year. It's important to note that this game is being played at a neutral location, which generally lowers scoring totals a bit. Neither team is accustomed to the shooting backdrops, and that can lead to lower shooting percentages. Iowa has gotten much worse on offense this season compared to last year, but they are also playing much better defense this year. Northern Iowa relies on outside shooting, and I think the Hawkeyes will do a nice job of contesting their long range jumpers. I had this total at 127 points. Take the under.
12-17-14	Loyola Marymount v. Stanford OVER 137		58-67	Loss	-110	7 h 26 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Stanford Cardinal have been playing against a lot of teams that like to slow the game down this year. That has made Stanford's pace numbers look a lot slower than they really should be. In general, Stanford is a team that prefers to run if given the opportunity. Loyola Marymount is pushing the pace under their new coach this year, and the Lions defense isn't good at all. This is a good chance for guys like Randle and Nastic to put up some big numbers. I had this number at 141 points. Recency bias from the oddsmakers has given us a nice value here. Take the over.
12-17-14	San Diego State v. Cincinnati UNDER 109	Top	62-71	Loss	-105	6 h 32 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total BLOWOUT The Cincinnati Bearcats have been an under team for a couple years now. Last year, Cincinnati was a team that didn't necessarily stall, but they did have a very bad offense and a great defense. Now, Mick Cronin's team has decided to slow things down a lot so far this year. They are using up the shot clock a lot more this year. San Diego State is the same type of team. The Aztecs aren't good at all offensively, but they are tremendous on the defensive end. San Diego State also uses up the entire shot clock most of the time. Aqeel Quinn went down with an injury recently, and that made the Aztecs offense much worse. Other than Winston Shepard the Aztecs don't have any good scoring options. If you like offense, I don't think you're going to like this game. Two of the best defensive coaches in college basketball here. The under is a whopping 44-11 in Cincinnati's last 55 games overall. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 Wednesday games. The under is 7-1 in San Diego State's last 8 Wednesday games. A 61-13 trend backing this play. Take the under big!
12-17-14	Hampton v. Illinois OVER 139.5		55-73	Loss	-105	5 h 23 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total Value The Illinois Fighting Illini have made it known so far this year that they aren't afraid of running up the score when they are given the opportunity. Illinois should get that chance tonight against Hampton. Hampton isn't a good team, but they like to run and push the tempo. That plays right into what Illinois wants to do. Against the worst teams they have played so far this year Illinois has put up massive point totals. They scored 114 against Coppin State and 107 against Austin Peay. They scored 89 against Brown and 88 against Indiana State. I think the Illini put up a big number again here and the pace should help Hampton put up plenty to get us to the over. I had this number set at 145 points. Take the over.
12-16-14	Arizona State v. Marquette UNDER 132		71-78	Loss	-110	7 h 6 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Marquette Golden Eagles are slowing the tempo down under their new coach. Arizona State is slowing things back down this year as well. In the past few years, the Sun Devils played fast because they had a star in Jahii Carson running the show. Without him at the helm, Coach Sendak has decided to turn the tempo back down again. Both of these defenses will work hard in this one, and I think this should be a close back and forth game where the offenses struggle to get going. Look for this game to stay in the 120's. Take the under here.
12-16-14	Alabama v. Wichita State UNDER 142		52-53	Win	100	7 h 41 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day The Wichita State Shockers play some very good defense. Gregg Marshall's team makes the opposition work extremely hard to get shots, and then the Shockers also do a tremendous job of grabbing the defensive rebound. Alabama has tried to speed up the tempo of the game this year, but the Shockers are generally very good at playing to their pace. Wichita State plays relatively slowly and I think them being the home team here helps them control the tempo. Alabama's offense is unlikely to be efficient against the best defense they have faced all year long. Alabama has typically been a good defensive team as well under Coach Anthony Grant. I made this total 137 points. Take the under.
12-16-14	North Carolina v. NC-Greensboro OVER 148		79-56	Loss	-105	6 h 32 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The North Carolina Tar Heels are very good at imposing their will as far as the pace of the game. UNC Greensboro is going to get demolished on the glass in this one. The Tar Heels have been one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and offensive putbacks will be huge for them in this game. The Spartans get a rare chance at home to play a big name school from their own state, and they should be hyped up for this one too. I think that leads to them playing pretty quick and likely getting ahead of themselves and turning it over for some easy buckets for the Tar Heels. North Carolina hangs a big number on the Spartans in this one. Take the over.
12-10-14	High Point v. Ohio State UNDER 133		43-97	Loss	-108	3 h 6 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing zone on almost every possession this year. Zone defenses slow the game down in a big way. Ohio State shot the lights out early on which caused several of their games to be very high scoring. While I do think Ohio State has a good shooting team, I don't see the Buckeyes continuing to shoot 52% from the floor for the whole season. High Point is a relatively good team despite the fact that most people know nothing about them. High Point prefers to slow the game down, and they'll make this a halfcourt game as much as they can. High Point doesn't have good outside shooters, and I think they'll struggle to score against the Buckeyes zone. I made this total 128 points. I would play this one down to as low as 131 points. Take the under here.
12-09-14	UMKC v. Iowa State OVER 150.5		56-73	Loss	-105	6 h 5 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Iowa State Cyclones love to push the tempo at every opportunity. UMKC is a team that likes to run as well. Neither one of these teams work very hard on the defensive end. Iowa State is very capable of putting up a big number in this one. UMKC already allowed 81 to South Dakota State and 83 against Kansas State. Neither of those teams are even close to as good offensively as Iowa State. I think there's a good chance the Cyclones get 90 points or more in this one. In fact, they have already scored 90 points or more on three occasions this year. The over is 45-20-1 in the Cyclones last 66 games overall, so the oddsmakers have had trouble catching up with how fast this team plays. Take the over.
12-09-14	Villanova v. Illinois UNDER 137		73-59	Win	100	5 h 8 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO This game will be played at Madison Square Garden, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm playing the under. The shooting backdrop at MSG is tougher than any other gym that these teams will play at all year. Illinois was scoring loads of points earlier this year, but as they start playing tougher teams their point totals are going down pretty quickly. Villanova has impressed me a lot on the defensive end this year. They'll make Illinois work hard for every shot. The Fighting Illini are much improved on the defensive end compared to last year as well. I had this total set at 133.5 points. There's just enough value here to advocate a play. I've done very well taking unders at MSG in the past, and I'll take the under again here.
12-08-14	UC-Santa Barbara v. SMU UNDER 127		73-80	Loss	-105	5 h 4 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER The SMU Mustangs have always been a relatively slow paced team. They are struggling a little more now on the offensive end because they are without Marcus Kennedy on the inside. Kennedy was the team's best low post scorer. SMU now relies primarily on scoring from the outside. UCSB is a disciplined team under Coach Bob Williams. The Gauchos definitely like to slow the game down and work it inside to Alan Williams in the post. SMU does have some good post defenders, and I expect them to be able to neutralize Williams to some degree. I had this number at 123. The under is 4-0 in UCSB's last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.
12-07-14	East Carolina v. North Carolina UNDER 141		64-108	Loss	-103	2 h 34 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The North Carolina Tar Heels love to run, and the oddsmakers like to put high totals on their games. Remember though, this North Carolina team is much better defensively than they are on the offensive end. They have a lot of length and athleticism that cause opponents to shoot a poor percentage, but generally the Tar Heels offensive efficiency isn't that great. East Carolina is a team that likes to stall to try to stay in the game. If the Pirates are wise at all, they will be playing some serious stall ball in this game. With one team playing stall ball and the other team playing good defense, a total of 141 points is too high. Take the under in this one.
12-06-14	Savannah State v. Indiana OVER 142.5		49-95	Win	100	4 h 10 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Totals MONEY The Savannah State Tigers don't know any way to play other than running and gunning. This Savannah State team isn't good, but they are going to want to run and push the tempo. That plays right into the Indiana Hoosiers hands. Indiana is always more comfortable running in Tom Crean's system. The Hoosiers have scored at least 81 points in each of their last four games. Against a bad team like Savannah State who plays very little defense, Indiana should get well into the 80's easily, and I think 90 points is fairly likely. The tempo here is the key. Take the over.
12-04-14	Cal State Fullerton v. UCLA OVER 148		45-73	Loss	-110	11 h 34 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The UCLA Bruins have shown us that they are going to play as fast as possible this year. All but one of their games so far this year has played out to a tempo of 71 possessions per team or more. That's extremely fast compared to the average in college basketball which is about 67 possessions. UCLA played games at a pace of 78 and 82 earlier this year against poor opponents who like to run. They have another poor opponent in Cal State Fullerton who likes to run. The Titans defense is really bad, and I think UCLA will be able to get good looks all game long. UCLA's interior defense has been poor, and Fullerton has some guys who can get to the rim. Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over.
12-03-14	Idaho v. Washington State OVER 148.5		77-71	Loss	-105	9 h 31 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Washington State Cougars are a totally different team this year. Ernie Kent took over the team in the offseason, and he wants this team to run all the time. Washington State has generally been a defensive oriented team that slows it down, so the oddsmakers are slow to adjust lines with this Cougars team. Idaho has sped up the tempo a lot in the past couple years as well. The Vandals defense is atrocious (they allowed 83 points last game against Northern Kentucky). Washington State isn't a whole lot better on defense. A fast pace and two bad defenses. Take the over.
12-03-14	Virginia v. Maryland UNDER 120		76-65	Loss	-110	6 h 53 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Virginia Cavaliers and Maryland Terrapins were used to meeting each other in conference games, but now they'll be meeting each other in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Maryland is without leading scorer Dez Wells in this one, and that's important because they are playing against a Virginia team that locks it up on the defensive end. The Cavs defense is always one of the best in the country. Virginia is playing even slower tempo wise than they did last year, and they have had some extremely low scoring games so far this year. They haven't allowed more than 56 points in a game all year long. Maryland is slowing things down this year compared to last season as well. I had this one at 116 points. Take the under.
12-02-14	NC State v. Purdue OVER 139.5		61-66	Loss	-110	7 h 11 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Purdue Boilermakers have a new identity. Matt Painter's teams were previously known for slowing the game down and playing great defense. Now, the Boilermakers are all about running and getting off a bunch of shots. Purdue has had some very high scoring games this year, including some high scoring games against teams who usually play in low scoring contests. The NC State Wolfpack also like to play fast, so I see no reason that this game won't be played at a quick tempo. The over is 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 home games. The over is 5-1 in NC State's last 6 road games. I had this number at 145 points. Take the over.
11-30-14	Iona v. Arkansas OVER 168		77-94	Win	100	2 h 32 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total This is a really high posted total, but it's really high for a reason. Iona and Arkansas both rank in the top 11 out of 351 college basketball teams in terms of pace. This game should be an all out track meet. Both teams are shooting above 45% on the year thus far from beyond the arc. Both teams use a full court press to push the tempo. Neither one of these teams are very good defensively in the halfcourt either. I made this total 174, so I see enough value to play this one. Take the over.
11-26-14	Pittsburgh v. Kansas State UNDER 130		70-47	Win	100	5 h 45 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Kansas State Wildcats have been shooting a very high percentage so far this year. While it's possible Kansas State will be a bit improved from an offensive perspective, they aren't going to keep shooting the lights out every game like they have been recently. Jamie Dixon's Pitt Panthers are always one of the better defensive teams in the country. The Panthers also play at a very slow tempo all the time. Pitt is having significant problems scoring this year, but they stay in the game with their ball control and strong defense. I think this line is inflated due to Kansas State's recent hot shooting. I had this number at 125 points. Take the under.
11-25-14	Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 134		55-60	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Total The Villanova Wildcats impressed me with their defensive intensity on Monday night against VCU. Villanova made the Rams work extremely hard in the halfcourt sets to get looks at the basket. Michigan was amazingly efficient last year on offense, but without Nik Stauskas I expect them to be much worse this season. The Wolverines always want to slow the game down and they should be able to do that here. Villanova looked to be content playing a halfcourt game last night. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at Barclays Center in New York, so this is a neutral venue which generally lowers the shooting percentages. I had this one set at 129. Take the under.
11-25-14	Eastern Illinois v. Creighton UNDER 134		53-75	Win	100	5 h 58 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Eastern Illinois Panthers are going to try their best to slow this game down. They know they don't have the athleticism to run with Creighton. So far this year, Eastern Illinois has been successful in slowing everyone down that they have played against. Creighton also runs a little less than they did last year. More importantly though, Creighton isn't going to be nearly as good on offense without Doug McDermott, Grant Gibbs, Ethan Wragge, and Johans Manigat. This is an offense that has struggled so far this year, and I think the oddsmakers are being slow to adjust their numbers down. I had this one at 130 points. Take the under.
11-24-14	BYU v. San Diego State OVER 136		87-92	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The San Diego State Aztecs have played some extremely low scoring games so far this year, but most of their opponents have played at a very slow tempo. That will change tonight when they take on BYU. The Cougars are playing at a pace of 75 possessions per game, which is fifth fastest in the nation. San Diego State plays very good defense, but the pure amount of shots that BYU gets in this one should mean the Cougars score quite a few points. The Aztecs offense should also look a lot better when they are going up against a poor defense like BYU. Look for Winston Shephard to have a big game here. I made this total 140 points. Take the over.
11-24-14	VCU v. Villanova OVER 152		53-77	Loss	-103	4 h 59 m	Show
4 Star VCU/Villanova Total DOMINATION The VCU Rams can push the tempo as well as anyone in the nation with their "Havoc" full court pressure. While some teams will fight hard to slow the game down, I don't see Villanova being one that does that. The Wildcats like to play fast with their athleticism at all positions. Ryan Arcidiacano is a guard who plays fast and is prone to turnovers at times, which could play into the hands of VCU. Briante Weber's quickness really makes the Rams tough on both ends of the floor. Whoever wins this game is going to have to score a lot of points. Both of these teams have big guys who can run the floor well, which means there is no reason to expect either team will be wanting to slow things down. The tempo should push this one over. Take the over here.
11-23-14	Long Beach State v. UCLA OVER 154		63-77	Loss	-110	8 h 36 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Only five teams in the entire country are playing at a faster tempo than the UCLA Bruins right now. There are 351 teams in college basketball. That tells you how quick the Bruins are playing. The Bruins are loaded with good long range shooters, and they are in a matchup here vs. a Long Beach State team that doesn't play much defense at all. Xavier put up 97 points on Long Beach State earlier this year, and Xavier doesn't have the offensive weapons that UCLA has. Long Beach State has a couple nice scorers in Michael Caffey and Tyler Lamb. The 49ers like to play quickly, and I expect them to put up a good amount of points in this game as well. I made this total 159 points. Take the over.
11-23-14	Florida Atlantic v. Georgia OVER 136.5	Top	61-74	Loss	-105	3 h 52 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of Week The Florida Atlantic Owls and the Georgia Bulldogs both have a new style of play this year. Michael Curry brings an uptempo system to Florida Atlantic. The Owls haven't been very good on offense so far this year, but they are going to get up a lot of shots in this game. Georgia is playing far faster than they have in recent years. In fact, the Bulldogs are averaging seven possessions more per game compared to last season. That's an amazing change in just one season. Georgia has scored 73, 80, and 82 points in their three games this year. Against inferior competition they put up 80 and 82 points, and Florida Atlantic definitely doesn't have the same kind of talent that Georgia has. The Bulldogs backcourt is really quick and they'll get to the basket with ease in this game. A total this low is a big play for me with both teams turning up the tempo this year. I made this total 143 points. Take the over big!
11-21-14	Idaho State v. Washington State OVER 132		68-80	Win	100	5 h 25 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Washington State Cougars aren't any good this year, but they are definitely going to play a lot faster under new coach Ernie Kent. In their first two games, the Cougars have averaged more than 70 possessions, which is a very quick tempo. Idaho State isn't a good team at all, and the Bengals have been particularly bad on defense in the past few seasons. Idaho State is going to make this Washington State offense look a lot better than they are. Lacy is a good scorer for Washington State, and I expect a big game from him. The tempo here should be much quicker than most expect, which is why I see so much value on the over. I had this one at 137 points. Take the over.
11-21-14	Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 133.5		52-87	Loss	-112	5 h 33 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Michigan State Spartans are playing at a slower tempo this year thanks to their inexperience. Tom Izzo no longer has a veteran leader at the point guard spot. Michigan State is still going to compete hard on the defensive end because Izzo's teams always do that, but I expect them to not only play slower, but also be less efficient on offense. It's hard not to be down after you lose Appling, Harris, and Payne. Loyola has been a team that slows the game down for many years, and I don't see them changing that this season. I had this number pegged at 128. Take the under here.
11-20-14	Nicholls State v. UCLA OVER 151		74-107	Win	100	9 h 42 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The UCLA Bruins are playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. While UCLA does lack experience, they aren't lacking in athleticism. That allows them to push the tempo and score in transition at a high rate. Nicholls State clearly has no shot in this game. Nicholls State fouled more than any other team in the nation last year, so UCLA should make a living on the free throw line here. This is a game where UCLA could be pushing the 100 point barrier. Nicholls State likely starts slow, but gets more points in garbage time. I had this one at 156 points. Take the over.
11-20-14	Loyola Marymount v. Arizona State UNDER 131		44-68	Win	100	6 h 0 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Arizona State Sun Devils appear to be slowing the pace down again. With Jahii Carson at the helm the last couple years, Herb Sendek went away from his typical slow tempo. Now that he is gone, Arizona State is back to slowing things down. Loyola Marymount has a new coach and a new slower tempo as well. Arizona State's last game was an ugly 49-39 win. While I certainly don't expect anything like that here, I do think this one is likely to stay in the 120's. Look for a lot of long possessions as the shot clock ticks away. Take the under here.
11-19-14	Wake Forest v. Arkansas OVER 156.5		53-83	Loss	-110	5 h 2 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Arkansas Razorbacks are always one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. They thrive off using defensive pressure to create transition opportunities. Arkansas has athleticism and quickness at all positions this year, and I expect some very high scoring games for the Razorbacks. Wake Forest hasn't been fast in the past, but they have a new coach in Danny Manning. Manning has them playing at a much quicker tempo. The Demon Deacons aren't likely to slow this game down. It probably won't even take good shooting numbers to see this one go over the total. Uptempo all the way here with shots in the first 10 or 15 seconds of the shot clock being the norm. Take the over.
11-18-14	Long Beach State v. Xavier OVER 146		74-97	Win	100	4 h 11 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Xavier Musketeers have decided to pick up the tempo this year. Xavier has a good freshman class, and the Musketeers will likely be better than most experts are predicting. They put up 93 points in their season opener. Long Beach State is always willing to run, and the 49ers get their best player back tonight. Tyler Lamb was suspended the first two games, but he'll play tonight. He and Michael Caffey are a nice one-two scoring punch for Long Beach State. This is a game where I think we'll see a quick tempo and quite a few fouls because of the aggressiveness of both defenses. I handicapped this game at a total of 151 points. Take the over in this one.
11-18-14	Iona v. Wofford UNDER 144		73-86	Loss	-110	5 h 29 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Early Morning MONEY The Iona Gaels and Wofford Terriers tip it off at 7 AM Eastern on Tuesday morning as part of ESPN's 24 hour Tip Off Marathon. Iona is a run and gun type of team, but Wofford is very good at controlling the tempo. These two teams met last year at Iona in the second game of the year, and Iona won 76-55. The Terriers are small favorites here, and the strength of this Wofford team is their backcourt. That should help them slow the game down and keep this one lower scoring than expected. In addition, this game starting at 7 AM should definitely make it harder for the shooters. Needless to say, this isn't a normal time to start a game and that usually hurts scorers. I had this one pegged at 139, so plenty of room for value on the under. A rare early morning play here. Take the under.
04-05-14	Kentucky v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5		74-73	Win	100	42 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Final 4 Total DOMINATION The Kentucky Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers square off in a highly anticipated Final Four showdown this weekend in Dallas. This game is being played at the Dallas Cowboys stadium so this is definitely a tough shooting backdrop. We normally see lower scoring games in this kind of arena, because shooters just aren't used to this type of sight at a normal basketball arena. Wisconsin knows they can't run with Kentucky because the Wildcats have a major athleticism advantage. Look for the Badgers to slow this game down much more than most people expect. The Badgers are a sound team who should make it tough on Kentucky to get a bunch of easy buckets in the paint as they have gotten in recent weeks. Wisconsin's offense is good, but Kentucky's length should bother them. This total is set a little bit too high. Take the under.
03-30-14	Connecticut v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5		60-54	Win	100	35 h 20 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Elite 8 Total DOMINATION The UConn Huskies aren't going to want to get into a fast paced game with the Michigan State Spartans. Kevin Ollie's UConn Huskies have been winning with their strong defense down the stretch. Michigan State beat Virginia on Friday, but they struggled offensively against a strong defense. UConn is in the top 15 in the nation in total defense. Michigan State's defense has been very good of late as well. This total is set pretty high, especially considering this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is a tough arena for shooters. I like the value here. Take the under.
03-28-14	Connecticut v. Iowa State UNDER 147		81-76	Loss	-108	115 h 30 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB TGIF Total DOMINATION The Iowa State Cyclones really like to get out and run, and they'll try to do that here. UConn would much prefer to slow the game down though, and UConn's defense has been exceptional over the past few weeks. The Huskies have been shutting down great offenses on a consistent basis. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York City, which is one of the toughest arenas in the country for shooters. This game obviously means a bunch to both teams, and that typically slows the pace of play a bit too. Take the under here.
03-27-14	Dayton v. Stanford OVER 133		82-72	Win	100	91 h 18 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Dayton Flyers upset Ohio State and Syracuse to get to the Sweet 16. Dayton is fully capable of playing fast or playing slow, but I think this game is played at a much faster pace than their first two games because of their opponent. Stanford prefers to play at a quick pace when they can, and the Cardinal have shot the ball horribly in the first two games. Stanford likely shoots it a little better here. In Powell and Randle, the Cardinal have two elite scorers who can put the ball in the hoop consistently. Dayton hasn't seen many teams this year with that kind of offensive talent. This total is set too low. Take the over.
03-26-14	Yale v. Columbia UNDER 127.5		72-69	Loss	-110	49 h 60 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION Yale and Columbia will meet for the third time this year, and the first two meetings were both very slow paced games with the defenses playing well. Why would the third be any different. The first meeting finished at 128 points, but that was with 80 free throw attempts(which is just ridiculous). It's hard to imagine the teams getting to that kind of number again. The second game stayed well under the total. I made the total here 122 points. Look for a defensive game here. Take the under.
03-23-14	Baylor v. Creighton UNDER 144.5	Top	85-55	Win	100	45 h 39 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total The Creighton Blue Jays can shoot the ball very well, but they actually don't play nearly as fast as most people believe. Creighton slowed the game down quite a bit against Lafayette in their first game. Baylor is a team that works hard to slow the game down and win with their inside presence. This total is set extremely high as if this were a matchup between two teams that both run. In reality, both of these teams have been slowing the games down a lot of late. I lined this game at 139 points. The under is 20-7-1 in Creighton's last 28 non-conference games. Playing on a neutral floor hurts the shooting percentages for both teams a bit. If Creighton isn't hitting a very high percentage of three's, I think this stays well under. Take the under big here!
03-23-14	Stephen Austin v. UCLA UNDER 144.5		60-77	Win	100	29 h 59 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Oddsmaker ERROR The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks know how to control the pace of the game. They slowed down an ultra fast VCU team. I lost on the under in that game solely because of the VCU foul on a 3 pointer with 3 seconds left that put it in overtime, but I'm taking the under again with SF Austin here. They have to know they can't get into a running match with UCLA. Tulsa and UCLA played at a surprisingly slow pace Friday night, and SF Austin will slow it down far more than Tulsa did. I lined this game at 140 points. The under is 5-0 in UCLA's last 5 non-conference games. The under is 5-1 in SF Austin's last 6 following a win. Take the under.
03-23-14	North Carolina v. Iowa State OVER 159		83-85	Win	100	28 h 47 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The North Carolina Tar Heels love to play fast all the time. Iowa State is a team that played faster than anyone else in the Big 12, and the Cyclones aren't about to slow down now. Niang being injured certainly hurts the Cyclones, but they still have Kane and Ejim to fill it up here. This game has track meet written all over it. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Marcus Paige is really coming into his own for North Carolina and that makes them a dangerous team. The over is 4-0 in UNC's last 4 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 5-1 in Iowa State's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 following a win. A 13-2 angle. Take the over.
03-23-14	Kentucky v. Wichita State UNDER 135		78-76	Loss	-110	14 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Kentucky/Wichita State Total DOMINATION The Kentucky Wildcats have slowed things down in a big way over the past month. Coach Calipari decided to mix in the zone defense, and the offense has become much more deliberate in an attempt to take better shots. Wichita State's offense is good, but it's their defense that is elite. The Shockers should be highly motivated here and Kentucky will have a tough time getting up quality shots. Kentucky's defense has gotten much better in recent weeks. Expect a defensive battle. The under is 9-1 in Kentucky's last 10 Sunday games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS win. A 15-2 angle. Take the under.
03-22-14	Harvard v. Michigan State UNDER 137		73-80	Loss	-110	21 h 31 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day The Harvard Crimson didn't just get to this point by being a Cinderella or a lucky team. Harvard is a good team who is very well-coached. Expect the Crimson to know their best chance of winning this game is slowing the game down. Michigan State has a very good defense, and Harvard will struggle to get up open shots. Harvard's defense is underrated. The Spartans shot the ball remarkably well in their first game of the tournament, and you have to assume they will come back to earth a bit here. I had this one lined at 133 points. Expect a slower pace and some solid defense. The under is 5-0 in Harvard's last 5 non-conference games. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral site games. The under is 4-1 in the Spartans last 5 NCAA Tournament games. A 13-2 angle. Take the under.
03-22-14	Dayton v. Syracuse UNDER 127.5		55-53	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Dayton Flyers defense looked impressive against Ohio State on Thursday afternoon. Syracuse is a terrific defense, but the Orange have trouble on the offensive end. I don't think there will be much of a flow to this game. Syracuse's tempo is much much slower this year than they have been in recent years, and games generally slow down a little more as the tournament moves along because of the importance of the game. The zone defense should bother Dayton. Look for both defenses to rise to the occasion here. Take the under.
03-21-14	Tulsa v. UCLA OVER 146		59-76	Loss	-105	21 h 1 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The Tulsa Hurricane have really taken a significant step forward this year with Danny Manning leading the way as their head coach. Tulsa has picked up the tempo this year, and Manning has made it quite clear that he doesn't want to change the way they play here. Tulsa will look to run. The problem for them is UCLA is great in a fast paced game, and the Bruins offense could really pile up the points quickly in this one. Look for both teams to get up tons of shots in this one. The over is 4-0 in UCLA's last 4 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over.
03-21-14	Stephen Austin v. VCU UNDER 139		77-75	Loss	-110	118 h 1 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER Stephen F Austin is a well-coached veteran team that should know that they can't get into an up and down type of game with VCU. Shaka Smart's team isn't very good on offense in the halfcourt, so they really rely heavily on forcing turnovers with their full court pressure. Stephen F Austin is relatively good at taking care of the ball. VCU is missing their best three-point shooter for this one, and that could hurt this team quite a bit since they don't shoot it well to start with. The under is 5-0 in SF Austin's last 5 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 NCAA Tournament games. A 13-0 angle. Take the under.
03-21-14	Cal Poly SLO v. Wichita State UNDER 126		37-64	Win	100	17 h 21 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Bookie CRUSHER The Cal Poly Mustangs looked great offensively Wednesday against Texas Southern. They won't look very good offensively Friday against Wichita State. The Shockers are a terrific team that excels on the defensive end. Wichita State doesn't mind playing slowly, and Cal Poly wants to stall as much as possible here. The Mustangs play as slow as anyone in the nation. It won't surprise me if Cal Poly struggles to reach 50 points here. Wichita State jumps ahead and coasts late in the game. Take the under here.
03-21-14	Eastern Kentucky v. Kansas OVER 146	Top	69-80	Win	100	114 h 25 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total The Kansas Wildcats have been capable of scoring a bunch of points all year, but they are playing even faster without Joel Embiid in the lineup. They are also a much worse defense without Embiid. Eastern Kentucky is shooting 56% on two-point shots this year, and they should get their points in this one. Expect an up and down affair with both teams preferring to run. The over is 5-1 in Eastern Kentucky's last 6 neutral site games. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. I had this one lined at 156 points. *Note- The line has moved up quickly here. I would play this one as high as 153 but no higher. Thank you.
03-21-14	UL-Lafayette v. Creighton OVER 156		66-76	Loss	-110	113 h 20 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns love to run and gun and try to outscore their opponent. That plays right into the hands of a team like Creighton. Creighton is built to put up points in a hurry, and they can shoot it from long range better than any other team in the nation. No one on this Lafayette team will be able to stop Doug McDermott. Creighton could put up 90 points or more here and it wouldn't be a surprise. Creighton's defense isn't particularly good and Lafayette will get up plenty of shots. I like this one to get over the total. Take the over.
03-20-14	Manhattan v. Louisville OVER 142.5	Top	64-71	Loss	-110	67 h 48 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total The Manhattan Jaspers are a team I like quite a bit. Unfortunately for them they drew a red hot Louisville team that is massively underseeded. Manhattan likes to use full court pressure and speed up the game, and they won't change their style here. Louisville will certainly be happy to run and press as well. This should be a fun game to watch thanks to the pace and all the up and down action. Even without good shooting numbers, I think this game gets over the total. I had this one lined at 148 points. The over is 6-0 in Louisville's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The over is 14-3 in their last 17 neutral site games. Take the over big!
03-20-14	NC State v. St. Louis OVER 131.5		80-83	Win	100	27 h 27 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The NC State Wolfpack surprised a lot of people (including me), by winning against Xavier on Tuesday night. NC State has a star in TJ Warren on their roster, and he is going to get his points no matter who this team goes up against. St. Louis is playing a much faster paced game than they did last year. The Billikens are still a very good defense, but their tempo has changed in a big way. I think this line is too low since St. Louis will look to run when given the opportunity. I had this one lined at 135 points. Take the over.
03-19-14	Pacific v. Grand Canyon OVER 150.5		69-67	Loss	-110	55 h 13 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total The Pacific Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the country. Pacific is able to score though, and they like to push the tempo. Pacific fouls a bunch and Grand Canyon is near the top of the charts in getting to the line. Expect tons of free points in this one. Grand Canyon wants to play fast and they'll get their chance to run like crazy in this one. Neither team will slow this game down. I had this total lined at 155 points. Take the over.
03-19-14	Cal-Irvine v. SMU UNDER 126		54-68	Win	100	57 h 40 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The UC Irvine Anteaters made me more money this year than any other team in college basketball. Most of that money was made playing the 'under' in nearly every game of theirs. Irvine's defense is great with N'Diaye protecting the rim. Irvine also likes to slow the game down. SMU's defense is very underrated, and they prefer a slow tempo as well. Two good defenses here and it should be a slow paced game. I had this lined at 122 points. The under is 10-1 in Irvine's last 11 non-conference games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in SMU's last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. A 23-1 angle. Take the under.
03-19-14	Toledo v. Southern Mississippi OVER 144	Top	59-66	Loss	-110	56 h 11 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Total The Toledo Rockets have a very efficient offense, but their defense is terrible. Southern Miss has typically slowed the game down, but late this season they started playing a little faster. Southern Miss is great at getting to the free throw line, and Toledo fouls quite a bit. The Golden Eagles offense is good to start with, and they should look great against a very bad Toledo defense. Two extremely good offenses here, and this should be a shootout. The over is 5-0 in Toledo's last 5 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 6-1 in Southern Miss' last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. A 15-1 angle. Take the over big!
03-19-14	Morehead St. v. Illinois State OVER 142.5		67-77	Win	100	53 h 13 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Track Meet Total The Morehead State Eagles and Illinois State Redbirds both like to run and push the tempo. They both had to play some teams inside their conferences that worked hard to slow them down, but that won't be a problem here. When these two fast paced teams get together, it should be a real track meet. Both of these teams foul a lot, so I expect trips to the charity stripe to help us out a lot in this game. I had this game lined at 147 points. Take the over.
03-18-14	High Point v. Minnesota OVER 133.5		81-88	Win	100	30 h 52 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Minnesota Golden Gophers were a decent Big Ten team, which means they should be able to blow away High Point if they are ready for this game. High Point likes to slow the game down, but I expect them to get down big early and be forced to speed up if they want to have any chance of winning. These smaller postseason tourneys generally have higher scoring games than expected. I had this one lined at 138. Take the over here.
03-18-14	Columbia v. Valparaiso UNDER 129.5	Top	58-56	Win	100	31 h 24 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Total The Columbia Lions are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Columbia is going to play their style of basketball no matter who they are playing against. Valparaiso tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and their offense isn't good enough to pile up the points against a quality Columbia defense. This has the makings of a tight low scoring game that goes down to the wire. I had this one at 123 points. The under is 7-0 in Columbia's last 7 following a double digit home loss. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 following an ATS loss. The under is 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-2 angle. Take the under big!
03-18-14	Norfolk State v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 127.5		54-58	Win	100	31 h 42 m	Show
4 Star 100% Angle CRUSHER The Norfolk State Spartans and the Eastern Michigan Eagles are similar teams. Both of them aren't very good offensively, but they are both excellent on the defensive end. This could easily be a game where we see both teams shoot a very low percentage from the floor. Eastern Michigan has slowed their pace down late in the season, and that should help out here. The under is 7-0 in Norfolk State's last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. An 11-0 angle. Take the under.
03-18-14	Wright State v. East Carolina UNDER 134.5	Top	73-59	Win	100	30 h 0 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under Radar Total The Wright State Raiders had the best defense in the Horizon League and they love to slow the game down. East Carolina started out playing fast, but they slowed things down in a big way as the season was winding down. There has been good value on the under with them of late. This should be a slower paced game than most expect. Expect a close hard fought battle between two teams who win with their defense first. I had this one lined at 128 points. Take the under big!
03-15-14	New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 126.5		64-58	Win	100	6 h 52 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The New Mexico Lobos and San Diego State Aztecs have one heck of a history of playing low scoring games against each other. The two meetings during the regular season this year finished at 102 points and 99 points. San Diego State will likely go zone at least part of this game again, and the Lobos looked lost against that last time around. This game means a lot to both teams, and I expect open shots to be tough to come by. The under is 6-0 in the Lobos last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 11-1 in their last 12 following a win. The under is 6-0 in SD State's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings. A 35-1 angle. Take the under.
03-15-14	Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5		83-75	Loss	-114	4 h 35 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special The Michigan State Spartans are great in March, and I expect them to be ready for this game. Wisconsin beat them 60-58 in the first meeting between these two. Both of these teams are defense-first. In a game that means a lot, I expect a slow tempo and lots of pressure defense that makes open shots hard to come by. Only one game between these two in the past 10 meetings has even gone above 125 points, and two of those games were overtime games. Defensive battle here. The under is 4-0 in Michigan State's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Wisconsin's last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings. A 12-0 angle. Take the under.
03-15-14	George Washington v. VCU OVER 138.5		55-74	Loss	-118	4 h 31 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total The George Washington Colonials and VCU Rams met twice during the regular season and both games went over the posted total. George Washington's weakness is taking care of the ball, and VCU gets lots of easy buckets off their full court pressure against them. At the same time, VCU's halfcourt defense isn't very good so if George Washington is able to break the press they score quite efficiently. Both teams do quite a bit of fouling. I had this lined at 143 points. The over is 5-0 in George Washington's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings. A 14-0 angle. Take the over.
03-15-14	NC State v. Duke OVER 144		67-75	Loss	-115	4 h 40 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB ACC Total The NC State Wolfpack have gotten hot at the end of the year, and it is largely because T.J. Warren is absolutely on fire offensively. No one has had an answer for Warren of late. Duke's defense isn't very good, but the Blue Devils should score at will against NC State in this one. The first game between these two finished in a Duke 95-60 win. I had this game lined at 149 points. Look for this to coast past the total. Take the over.
03-14-14	CS-Northridge v. Long Beach State OVER 148		82-77	Win	100	12 h 42 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT the Cal State Northridge Matadors have picked up the tempo in a big way at the end of the season. Their last 7 games have all played to a total of at least 158 points, which is pretty incredible. Long Beach State tends to play to the pace of their opponent. The 49ers are fully capable of lighting it up against this terrible Northridge defense. The most recent game between these two finished at 91-83. I had this one lined at 153 points. The over cashed in their last meeting. The over is 6-0 in Northridge's last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 league games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over.
03-14-14	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 139		86-69	Loss	-110	10 h 41 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Baylor Bears are definitely playing better basketball of late. Baylor dug a big hole at Texas a couple weeks ago and almost came back and won. Texas shot a ridiculously high percentage from long range in that game. Expect this game to be played much slower with more normal shooting numbers. I had this game lined at 134 points. The under is 5-0-1 in Texas' last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 neutral site games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 Big 12 games. A 14-0 angle here. Take the under.
03-14-14	Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 130.5		43-63	Win	100	7 h 11 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Colorado Buffaloes have squeaked out two close games in the Pac-12 Tournament. They haven't been able to get to 60 points yet, and I sincerely doubt they'll get to 60 points in this game. Arizona's defense held them to 61 on their home floor recently. Arizona's defense held Utah to 39 points yesterday, and this game is being played on a neutral floor where shooting numbers are typically lower. The under is 5-0 in Colorado's last 5 Friday games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 Friday games. A 14-0 angle. Take the under.
03-14-14	Iowa State v. Kansas OVER 155.5		94-83	Win	100	7 h 40 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Big 12 Total The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks will be getting out in transition early and often in this one. With Joel Embiid in the lineup, Kansas played slower and had a better defense, but the last meeting between these two still sailed past 160 points. The tempo should be very fast here, and I expect both teams to shoot a little better from the floor. I had this one at 161 points. Take the over.
03-14-14	Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 136.5		57-83	Loss	-110	5 h 25 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total The Wisconsin Badgers have played slightly faster this year than they have in the past, but I can't imagine them running and gunning in important tournament games. Minnesota is looking to slow the game down, and this game means a ton to the Gophers, who are firmly on the bubble. The under is 5-0 in Wisconsin's last 5 neutral site games. I made the line here 132 points. Take the under.
03-14-14	Northwestern State v. Stephen Austin UNDER 157.5	Top	78-85	Loss	-110	4 h 58 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Total The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks are a very good team. They are 29-2 on the year, and they are the best team in the Southland Conference. They win with strong defense, and they don't let their opponent force them into a fast paced game. Northwestern State is the fastest paced team in the nation, but they haven't been able to speed up Stephen F Austin in any of their meetings. The Lumberjacks know what they are good at, and they are great at sticking to the game plan. The last ten times these teams have met, the highest total was 138 points. That's 10 straight times they have played that under this number would have covered by at least 19 points. Take the under big here!
03-13-14	UC Riverside v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5		43-63	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The UC Irvine Anteaters have made me more money this year than any other team in the nation. UC Irvine unders have been golden all year because of their great defense and the way they control the tempo against teams who aren't as good as them. The two meetings in the regular season between these team stayed well under. I had this game at 125 points. The under is 9-0 in Irvine's last 9 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0 in Irvine's last 4 following a win of 20 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 neutral site games. A 21-0 angle. Take the under.
03-13-14	Savannah State v. Norfolk State UNDER 128.5		47-57	Win	100	8 h 2 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total Savannah State has a way of turning games into very ugly low scoring contests. This is a team that is about as bad as you'll see on offense, but they are the best in the league on defense. Norfolk State has slowed their tempo down in a big way from last year. The regular season meeting between these two went way under this total. I had this game lined at 124 points. Take the under.
03-13-14	Ohio v. Akron UNDER 131.5		77-83	Loss	-110	6 h 13 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Oddsmaker ERROR Total The Ohio Bobcats and Akron Zips have a long history of playing tight low scoring games against each other. Their two games this year were defensive battles, and I see no reason to believe anything different will happen here. Ohio and Akron are two of the best defenses in the league, and this game means a ton to both teams. In a game that means this much, the pace generally slows down even more. I had this game lined at 127 points. Take the under.
03-13-14	Rutgers v. Louisville OVER 144		31-92	Loss	-115	4 h 53 m	Show
4 Star Play Over In the regular season these teams met two times and both games sailed past this total. Louisville can score at will against Rutgers, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them score 90 points here. Rutgers is a very undisciplined team, but they'll get their shots up because of their very fast paced offense. Lots of easy buckets for the Cardinals and a fast tempo for this game. Take the over.
03-13-14	Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 148		70-77	Loss	-108	3 h 16 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Oklahoma State Cowboys and Kansas Jayhawks should put up a bunch of points without Joel Embiid on the floor for Kansas. Without him on the court, Kansas isn't particularly strong defensively. They also play even faster without him. Marcus Smart should get into the lane a bunch here. Wiggins should continue his recent hot stretch. I had this one at 154 points. Take the over in this contest.
03-13-14	Utah v. Arizona UNDER 129		39-71	Win	100	1 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The first two games between these teams were defensive battles, and this one should be the same. Utah is a much better team than most people realize, and the Utes match up well with Arizona. Neither of these teams wants to get out in transition, so we'll see a half court battle of two strong defenses here. I had this game lined at 125 points. Take the under here.
03-13-14	Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh OVER 133		55-84	Win	100	2 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will push the tempo here, and their defense will allow a decent Pitt offense to put up plenty of points. Pitt has been playing a bit faster of late. I had this one at 137 points. Take the over.
03-12-14	Central Florida v. Temple OVER 146		94-90	Win	100	11 h 12 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The UCF Knights and Temple Owls both like to push the tempo, and neither team plays good defense at all. I had this game lined at 153 points, so I was definitely surprised to see a total like this one come out. The regular season games between these two finished at 154 and 164 points. Plenty of tempo in this game should help it go over even if the shooting percentages aren't terrific. Take the over in this one.
03-12-14	USC v. Colorado OVER 140		56-59	Loss	-115	4 h 26 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The USC Trojans are a really bad team, but they love to run the court and push the pace of the game. Colorado isn't nearly as good without star guard Spencer Dinwiddie, but that hasn't stopped them from torching USC for more than 80 points in each of their regular season meetings. This USC defense is awful. Colorado should get whatever they want offensively, and the Buffaloes prefer to play fast as well. I had this one lined at 144 points. Take the over here.
03-12-14	Virginia Tech v. Miami (Fla) UNDER 115		53-57	Win	100	5 h 0 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special The Virginia Tech Hokies and Miami Hurricanes love to slow the pace of the game down. Miami is the slowest paced team in the nation this year (out of 351 teams). Virginia Tech has lots of injury concerns and they have slowed their tempo down in a big way late in the year. These two played to a 97 point final total during the regular season. Two good defenses against two bad offenses here. This one should be very low scoring. The under is 22-5 in Va Tech's last 27. The under is 17-7 in Miami's last 24. Take the under.
03-10-14	St Mary's CA v. Gonzaga UNDER 133		54-70	Win	100	7 h 44 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Gonzaga Bulldogs thumped St. Mary's in their first two meetings this year. Gonzaga is the better team and I think they will win a third time here. I see the most value in the under though. Gonzaga likes to jump out to a lead and then slow the game down and win with ball control and strong defense. They have the number one defense in the WCC. St. Mary's plays very slowly pace-wise, and the Gaels offense has been miserable in their last three tries against Gonzaga. The under is 6-0 in St. Mary's last 6 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Gonzaga's last 6 vs. a team wtih a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with each other. A 28-0 angle. Take the under.
03-10-14	Bowling Green v. Northern Illinois UNDER 116.5		51-54	Win	100	6 h 17 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Bowling Green Falcons and Northern Illinois Huskies are very capable of playing some very low scoring games. Their first meeting this year played to a ridiculous 45-36 final score. I won with the under in that game, and I'm playing the under again here. Bowling Green and Northern Illinois are both terrible offensively, but they are two of the best in the MAC on the defensive end. This game means more to both teams since it's a tournament game, and I expect that to slow the tempo down. I had this one at 112 points. The under is 4-0 in BG's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in N Ill's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings at Northern Illinois. A 21-1 angle. Take the under.
03-10-14	William & Mary v. Delaware OVER 151.5		74-75	Loss	-108	8 h 38 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB CAA Championship Total The Delaware Blue Hens are great at forcing the tempo in a game. Delaware should get their pace here. William & Mary is one of the worst defenses in the CAA, but the best offense in the league. As long as they shoot a decent percentage from the floor here, William & Mary should score plenty of points. It should take a lot of points to win this game. I also expect a close game where lots of fouling at the end is a very real possibility. I had this one lined at 157. Take the over.
03-09-14	Cal State Fullerton v. Hawaii OVER 148.5		77-81	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The Hawaii Warriors love to run and push the tempo. Cal State Fullerton experimented with slowing the game down earlier this year, but the Titans are back to running again of late. The first time these two met, the game finished at 163 points. Lots of easy buckets inside for both teams in this one and plenty of trips to the line. The over is 4-0 in Fullerton's last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games following a road trip of 3 games or more. The over is 5-1 in their last 6. The over is 5-1 in their last 6 following a loss. A 22-2 angle. Take the over.
03-08-14	Illinois v. Iowa OVER 140	Top	66-63	Loss	-110	8 h 10 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total The Iowa Hawkeyes are a scoring machine. Fran McCaffrey has his team pushing the tempo no matter who they play. Iowa has been able to make tons of slow it down teams play their style inside the Big Ten. Illinois and Iowa met in a game that finished at 155 points earlier this year. Illinois' defense likely isn't good enough to turn this into a stall ball type of game. I had this one lined at 147 points. The over is 1-0 in their meetings this year. The over is 4-0 in Iowa's last 4 home games. The over is 6-0 in Iowa's last 6 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games. A 20-0 angle. Take the over big!
03-08-14	UC-Davis v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 135.5		46-74	Win	100	4 h 21 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The UC Davis Aggies have decided to slow things down late this year. UC Davis is a brutally bad team, and they have very little chance to stay in this game. UC Irvine has been favorite under team this year, and they have made myself and my clients a lot of money. UC Irvine plays defense and slows the game down to dominant lesser teams. The first game between these two got to just 120 points. The under is 10-1 in Irvine's last 11 home games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 8-1 in their last 9 after giving up less than 50 points last game. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 33-3 angle. Take the under.
03-08-14	Duquesne v. George Mason OVER 144		81-69	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Over
03-08-14	Richmond v. Dayton UNDER 130		48-60	Win	100	6 h 8 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total The Richmond Spiders are without their best player for the rest of the year. Cedric Lindsay is injured and this team isn't the same without him. Richmond is slowing the tempo down much more of late in an effort to hide the fact that they are missing their top scorer. Dayton likes to play slowly and this game means a bunch to the Flyers. The first game finished at 137, but the amount of free throws in the game was extremely high. Lindsay had 17 points in that game. The under is 4-0 in Richmond's last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 league games. Take the under.
03-08-14	Pennsylvania v. Cornell OVER 144.5		69-65	Loss	-110	4 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Penn is the fastest paced team in the Ivy League right now, and Cornell can't guard anyone. There are 351 teams in Division I college basketball and Cornell is 350th in total defense. The first time these two played the total finished at 173 points. It might not get that high again, but it should top this posted total. Take the over.
03-08-14	UC Riverside v. Long Beach State OVER 141		67-74	Push	0	4 h 53 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Both of these teams have sped up their tempo of late. The first game between these teams went sailing over the posted total and I don't see any reason to expect any different here. Both these teams have little to play for here in the regular season finale, and that should mean less defense. I had 146 here. Take the over.
03-08-14	Ball State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 124		56-70	Loss	-110	6 h 48 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total Value I took the under the first time these two met and it would have won if it weren't for overtime. I'm going with the under again in this one. Northern Illinois' defense is very good, but they are awful on offense. Ball State tends to play to the pace of their opponent. I had this game lined at 119 points. Take the under in this one.
03-08-14	Texas v. Texas Tech UNDER 136.5		53-59	Win	100	5 h 47 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Oddsmaker Error Total Texas Tech has transformed into the slowest paced team in the Big 12. The Red Raiders don't have the same talent level as many other teams in the league, but they keep games close with defense. They were able to stall and keep the game well under the total when they played in Austin against the Longhorns. I think they'll do the same here. The under is 3-0-1 in Texas's last 4. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 league games. The under is 5-0 in Tech's last 5 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 Big 12 games. A 27-1 angle. Take the under.
03-08-14	South Carolina v. Mississippi State OVER 140.5		74-62	Loss	-110	3 h 9 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB SEC Total South Carolina will be without Coach Frank Martin, but they should continue to play fast here. Mississippi State is terrible, but they love to run and gun. Both of these teams should get to the line a ton with undisciplined defenses who hack all the time. This game means very little to both teams, which should boost scoring. I had this game lined at 145 points. Take the over.
03-08-14	Army v. Boston U. OVER 142.5		70-91	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over
03-08-14	Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech UNDER 124		51-62	Win	100	2 h 41 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Hokies have four key players who are expected to miss this game. Virginia Tech's offense is bad to start with and it should be downright awful in this one. The Hokies should slow this game down in a big way. Georgia Tech's offense isn't very good either. I had this at 120. Take the under.
03-08-14	Wake Forest v. Miami (Fla) UNDER 125.5		56-69	Win	100	1 h 10 m	Show
4 Star Play Under No one in the country plays slower than Miami. They rank #351 in the nation in terms of tempo out of 351 teams. Wake Forest isn't good enough to force the tempo here. I had this one at 121. Take the under here.

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