Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of the Day* Cincinnati and SMU square off in the AAC title game on Sunday afternoon. These two teams play a very similar style and recent match ups between these two have been highly competitive. 

Cincinnati has one of the top 8 defenses in the country. The Bearcats make you work extremely hard to get good looks. SMU is also very good defensively.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of pace of play. The tempo should be slow all the way in this one. 

Long-term the under has been a great play in conference tournament finals. Both of these teams are playing for the third straight day, and in this spot in conference title games the under is 61% in the past ten years. That's a huge sample size, and a great winning percentage.

Look for a close game where the defenses play extremely well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Creighton/Villanova Total DOMINATION* The Creighton Blue Jays take on the Villanova Wildcats in the Big East Tournament final at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.

There isn't a building in the country better for unders than Madison Square Garden, especially when it comes to college players. The under is hitting at a little better than 65% in the last five years when MSG is a neutral site for college contests.

Villanova nearly lost on Friday night, and they should come out focused here. The Wildcats have the best defense in the conference. They are particularly good at defending without fouling (first in the country). They also do a great job defending beyond the arc. 

Creighton settles for a lot of jumpers, and I don't think that will be a good formula against this Villanova defense. 

Villanova is great at slowing the game down and I think they will dictate the pace here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Rhode Island Rams and Davidson Wildcats met twice in the regular season. They scored 129 in the first game. They scored 124 in regulation in the second game. 

Davidson plays at an average pace. Rhode Island is slowing things down of late. The Rams are consistently playing games to about 64 or 65 possessions. The Rams are also playing much better defense than they were earlier this year. Rhode Island is allowing only 0.95 points per possession.

Davidson relies heavily on three point field goal attempts. Rhode Island ranks third in the nation in 3 point field goal defense. Opponents are shooting only 29.2% from 3 against the Rams.

Davidson's defense is much improved from a year ago, and their shooting has been worse.

This game is played at PPG Paints Arena, which is a hockey arena. No doubt this is a tougher shooting backdrop than these two teams are accustomed to.

I had this one four points lower. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles and Weber State Wildcats meet in the semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament here. I think these are the best two teams in the conference. Both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. 

The two regular season games finished at 154 and 137 points. Both had a slow tempo, but they shot well and had a foul fest in the 154 point game. 

This game means so much to both teams that I think the tempo slows down even more. A neutral floor helps as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Nevada has the best offense in the Mountain West, and it isn't even close. Fresno State fouls a bunch, and Nevada is great at getting to the line. 

Fresno State won both regular season meetings, but Nevada is the better team. Nevada is favored by six and this one has the potential for a late foul fest that would help the over in a big way. 

I had this one at 150. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Florida State was able to get the tempo they wanted in those games.

Notre Dame is excellent offensively, but they aren't very good on defense. Florida State will get points in transition, and they should get second chance opportunities as well.

This is played at Barclays Center in New York. The over has done really well here in a small sample size.

I had 154.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* This one is way off most people's radars, but I think this one holds some significant value. 

The Toyota Center is a very good under gym. It's a spacious arena and it is known for being difficult for college shooters. That is especially true when you consider the SWAC teams play in small gyms normally. Now, they'll be playing in front of a massive gym with almost no people in it. That's a good scenario for unders in the long term.

In this game, Alcorn State and Southern meet. The two regular season games between these two both stayed under the total. One finished at 138 and one at 135. Alcorn State slowed the pace down in both contests. 

While these teams aren't great defensively, they are better than most SWAC teams. The tough shooting backdrop and a high number make this a good value play. I had this lined at 136 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UC Irvine has the best defense in the conference. Irvine is good at controlling the pace and they want to play slowly. Long Beach State started the year out playing fast, but of late they have definitely slowed down.

One of the regular season meetings was 149 and one was 135. This game is played at Honda Center which has been a great under venue over the years. That alone should lower the posted total by at least 3 or 4 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers beat the Butler Bulldogs in impressive fashion last night. They won by slowing the game down and playing some great defense. That's how they'll have to do it here against Creighton as well.

Creighton is a jump shot heavy team, and this game is played in Madison Square Garden, which is a very tough arena for shooters. The under is hitting at better than 65% in the last 50 college games played at MSG.

Xavier and Creighton played one game under this total and one over this total this year. The shooting numbers were really bad in one of the games and excellent in the other. I think it is unlikely we'll see excellent shooting numbers in this game played at Madison Square Garden.

Look for both defenses to come ready to play. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* PPG Paints Arena is a hockey arena in Pittsburgh, and this place definitely has a bad shooting backdrop. It is hard for shooters to shoot a high percentage here.

George Washington lost twice in the regular season to Richmond, but I think they have a shot here. They will slow the game down.

Richmond's last four games of the year have been their slowest paced games, so I believe they will be ok with the slower pace.

I had this one at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boise State Broncos have played a whopping 27 straight games that have gone over this posted total. Their first lined game of the year stayed under against College of Charleston, and every game since has gone over this total.

Boise State is first in the league in getting to the line. Chandler Hutchison's massive improvement as a player has really helped this offense thrive this year. The Broncos have several guys who can create on their own.

San Diego State shot the ball horribly last night. Expect some improvement tonight against a Boise State defense that isn't very good. The Aztecs aren't nearly as good defensively this year as they have been in the past either. 

Look for Boise State to have a 28th straight game go over this number. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of WEEK* The Providence Friars take on the Creighton Blue Jays on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City. 

Madison Square Garden is probably the best under gym in the country, especially when it comes to college teams playing on the court. It's a distinct shooting backdrop that is so much different than everything else the players are accustomed to, that it can really throw things off on the jumpers. 

The under is 49-27 in the last 76 neutral site games played at Madison Square Garden in college hoops (note this doesn't count St. John's games when they are the home team). 

Creighton is a jump shot heavy team and I don't expect them to knock down as many jumpers here. They were only 8/24 from 3 point range in their game at MSG last year. 

Providence has slowed the tempo down against Creighton twice this year. The Friars have a good defense, and they don't want to get into a track meet with Creighton here. 

In a game that means so much to both teams, it is interesting to have a lined total several points higher than either regular season meeting finished. That is especially true with this game being played at Madison Square Garden.

Take the under big. TOP Total of Week

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Northwestern Wildcats met twice in the regular season. Those two games finished at 134 and 129 points. This one deserves to be a bit lower since it is a neutral site game, but this total is too low.

Both of these teams excel at offensive rebounding. In one of the meetings between these two this year, both teams had 20 or more offensive rebounds. That's an astounding number, and when you are getting that many second chance opportunities, I have to take an over that is this low.

Both teams have played almost all of their games this year over this total. Look for this one to get into the upper 120's.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Cal Poly Mustangs are very good at slowing down the pace of the game. Cal Poly will work hard to slow things down in this one. 

UC Davis pushes the tempo when they can, but the Aggies aren't efficient at all on offense. UC Davis is excellent on defense. The Aggies have allowed only 0.968 points per possession in Big West play this year.

Honda Center is the venue for this game, and this is a huge hockey arena that is tough for shooters. That is especially true when it is players from a small conference like the Big West where they are accustomed to playing in a gym with 3,000 seats. The Honda Center will be mostly empty here, and a huge arena with a bunch of empty seats is a good equation for an under.

The two regular season meetings were 144 and 132. Interestingly, the total was set at 134.5 and 137 in those two games. Why would this be higher when this is played in a tough shooting gym and we know that games are generally lower scoring with a lot on the line? This is a win or go home game for both.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The MTSU Blue Raiders are great at controlling the pace of the game. MTSU is going to slow this game down. They were successful in playing a very slow pace against UTSA in their regular season game and they should be again here.

UTSA is a team that typically plays to the pace of their opponent, which is good for us here. UTSA is also the worst shooting team in Conference USA by a wide margin. The Roadrunners aren't likely to find many easy shots against a MTSU defense that allowed only 0.9378 points per possession in conference action.

The first game between these two finished at 128 points, and that is a little misleading. That game was an epic foul fest in the last minute to get the game to 128 points. It was pacing to around 110 or 115 points for a long time.

This is a tough gym for the shooters, and this is an early start, which is good for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a terrible team. They have no depth and they have to slow the pace down as much as possible. They have successfully slowed the game down twice against Rice. The first meeting finished at 119, and the second finished at 143 after an overtime session. It was 134 before the extra session.

Rice shoots more 3 pointers than anyone else in the conference. That's a bad thing for them here as Legacy Arena has a tough shooters backdrop and the under has been great here in the past. Last year, Rice made only 2 of their 18 three point field goal attempts in their conference tournament game in this building.

The large spread is a big help as well. In fact, neutral site games in the postseason played with a spread of 11.5 or larger have gone nearly 60% to the under in the last five years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game fits into several nice under systems. First, it's being played in Legacy Arena, which has been a solid under gym. It's a huge gym holding more than 17,000 people, and that's a negative for shooters since almost no one will be in the seats. It creates a more difficult shooting backdrop and an awkward environment in general.

UTSA is the worst shooting team in the league. Western Kentucky fouls the least of any team in the league. The Hilltoppers slow the pace down, and UTSA plays to the pace of their opponent most of the time.

The early start time is a good thing for the under based on historical trends as well. In addition, Western Kentucky relies heavily on 3 pointers, and teams that rely heavily on the 3 ball have been good under plays on neutral courts in the past.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange and Miami Hurricanes meet in Brooklyn for the ACC Tournament. This is a new venue to both teams, and unfamiliarity isn't good for shooting numbers on the whole.

The last five times these two teams have met the game has stayed under this posted total. In fact, the highest scoring game during that span was a 128 point final. I don't see any reason to expect a neutral floor where the guys haven't played to help get this one over the total.

Both of these teams turn it over quite a bit, which hurts offensive efficiency and helps the under. Miami is slowing the tempo down to a crawl in their last few games, and Syracuse's zone slows the game down as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs and St. Mary's Gaels played two regular season games this year. Gonzaga shot over 60% in one of them and 52.3% in the other. 

St. Mary's Coach Randy Bennett said to the press that he has been stressing defense in a major way before this game. He knows the team needs to slow Gonzaga's offense down both from a tempo standpoint and just in general make them take tougher shots. 

In the long term, taking an under when both teams just played the day before has been very profitable. In fact, with a total of 135.5 or lower, the under is hitting at 59% in the past ten years in this situation. 

A neutral court is a big help too. These players aren't as accustomed to this shooting backdrop. 

St. Mary's will slow the game down, and I think the shooting percentages will be lower than the first two meetings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Sacramento State Hornets play at the slowest pace in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Idaho State and Sacramento State's first game was played to a pace of only 62 possessions, which is very slow.

Sacramento State has seen six of their last seven games stay under this posted total. They are the better team here, and I think they will dictate the style of play in this one.

This one is played at Reno at a neutral court. That knocks the total down a couple points since the teams aren't accustomed to the arena or the shooting backdrop.

I expect a sloppy game here, and I think the total should be in the upper 130's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles and Howard Bison meet in the first game of the MEAC Tournament in Norfolk. This game is played at the Norfolk Scope Arena. This arena has been noted for for being a good under gym in the past. 

There won't be many people in the gym, and in a big gym like this one that is generally a bad thing for shooters. 

The first meeting between these two was 153 with shooting numbers much higher than their season averages, which is what gives us extra value on today's number.

Both teams have played slowly this year, and Howard is one of the worst offenses in college basketball. This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In general, playing overs in the postseason can be a little risky. Still, there is a big difference between playing overs on a neutral floor and playing overs on a regular home court of one of the teams. 

In this case, the game is being played at Vermont. Vermont is a tremendous team led by star freshman Anthony Lamb. Trae Bell-Haynes is a star at the point guard spot as well. Vermont is averaging a really impressive 1.154 points per possession in the conference this year. 

New Hampshire is averaging 1.082 points per possession in the conference as well. 

Both regular season meetings went over this posted total. While both teams do play slowly, they are good offensively and this total is extremely low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I understand why this line has been bet down, but it is too low for me to pass up the over now. Many are seeing this as a chance to bet the under based on both teams playing multiple days in a row, but the past history of these two teams suggests this number is too low.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished 83-79 and 72-66. The game that finished 72-66 saw both teams shoot it far worse than normal from the field. East Tennessee State has been able to push the pace in both games, but their shots weren't falling. Expect more of their shots to be falling here. 

This game sits at the 5 or 5.5 point spread range, which means a late foul fest is definitely a possibility. That is especially true since this is the game that decides who goes to the NCAA Tournament.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a win or go home game for these teams from the MAAC. Siena gets the home court advantage here. This is played at the Times Union Center, which has been one of the best under venues in college basketball the last few seasons.

Fairfield was pushing the pace as fast as they could early in the year. The Stags have decided to change things up lately. Fairfield has played 3 of their last 4 games to a pace of 65 possessions or less. That's after playing most of their games to a tempo of 75 or higher early in the year. 

The most recent meeting between these two teams was a 63-54 final score. I don't think this one will be that low, but I do expect a relatively low scoring game.

Both of these teams are much improved defensively from a year ago, and these defenses should come through in this big game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats and Montana State Bobcats are similar teams. Both of these teams shoot the ball very well. Weber State ranks among the best in the country in effective field goal percentage. Montana State shoots it really well from long range.

Both of these teams are really weak on defense. Montana State ranks in the top five in most fouls committed in the country, and Weber State shoots 76% from the line in Big Sky play.

This is a late conference game that doesn't mean a lot to either team. This a conference where you have to win the league to get a NCAA Tournament berth. 

Expect a relatively quick tempo and good shooting.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina/Duke rivalry is better than any other rivalry in college basketball. Duke will look to slow the pace down some here. The Blue Devils successfully slowed things down in the first meeting and it was played at only 68 possessions. 

Duke and Carolina played two games in the 140's last year, and I think this total is inflated based on how the first game went. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have shot the ball extremely well against the weakest defenses in Conference USA so far this year. FIU is by far the worst defense in the conference. 

UAB scored 85 points in a losing effort at FIU in the first meeting this year. If they get close to that number here, the over should be good. 

FIU has picked up their tempo in recent weeks. They have absolutely nothing left to play for in the regular season, and games involving teams playing for nothing have historically been much higher scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valpo Crusaders are without star player Alec Peters, who is arguably the best player in the conference. Without their leading scorer, I expect Valpo to try to win with their defense, which is excellent.

Milwaukee plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Horizon League. Milwaukee shoots a bunch of 3's, and Valpo is great at guarding beyond the arc. 

Both games in the regular season stayed below this total. This game is played at a hockey arena where the shooting backdrop is very tough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In the last ten years, games between two teams with a 55% win rate or less in the final two games of the regular season have gone over 58% of the time. 

This one fits in nicely to that system as Marshall loves to run and gun, and North Texas has nothing to play for. North Texas has sped up their pace of play drastically throughout the course of the year, and I don't see them trying to slow things down here.

The tempo here is likely to be 80 possessions or faster. Marshall should tear up this really bad North Texas defense. I think Marshall has a chance to hit 100 in this one. 

The over is high, but not high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are better on defense than offense. Additionally, these two both rank in the bottom ten in the country in free throws attempted. That is a big help when you have a low under like this one.

The two regular season meetings were 119 and 130. I had this number at 124. This being played at a neutral site is a good thing for the under.

Santa Clara and San Francisco are major rivals, and I think this sets up as a slow paced game between two teams desperate to win and move on in the tournament.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wichita State is clearly the best team in this conference. They should win this game and then they'll have to play again tomorrow. That should make them let off the gas a little quicker than normal here.

The Scottrade Center has been the single best under arena in the country in the past ten years. This is a terrible backdrop for shooters.

Missouri State will work to slow the game down as long as they can in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes have been firing on all cylinders offensively of late. The Utes rank ninth in the country in effective field goal percentage. 

Stanford's defense has really fallen apart of late. Colorado torched them for 91 points in a slow paced game in their last contest. The Cardinal have been much worse on defense away from home.

Both of these teams have played relatively quick when they get the opportunity to. There are several teams who slow the tempo in the Pac 12, but here both teams will get a chance to move quickly. 

I had this one several points higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers have had some extremely low scoring games this year. Northern Iowa is averaging only 0.936 points per possession in the conference. The Panthers rely way too much on Koch and Morgan. 

Northern Iowa has scored 55 points or less in 5 of their last 8 games. This Panthers offense is really struggling right now.

The Scottrade Center hosts the MVC Tournament, and the under is now 53-29 in the last 82 games played there. It's a terrible gym for shooters.

Missouri State plays very slowly and relies on outside shooting, which is a bad fit for this gym.

I think this is a tight very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes and Drexel Dragons meet at North Charleston Arena for this first round CAA Tournament matchup.

I've followed a really nice system for conference tournaments on a neutral floor. When there is a game between two teams with a winning percentage of 32% or less, the under is an impressive 29-10 in the last 39 situations. This game fits nicely into that system.

North Charleston Arena is a big place that isn't kind to shooters in general. These teams have never played there before. That definitely helps the under on the whole.

I had this a few points lower. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland State Vikings have been great at keeping games low scoring for a very long time. Cleveland State always plays at a slow tempo, and the Vikings have the third best defense in the Horizon League. 

Youngstown State is a high scoring team, but they are actually a little worse on offense and slightly better on defense this year than they have been in recent years. 

The two meetings this year between these teams finished at 131 and 124 points. In fact, the last 12 meetings between these two teams have stayed below this posted total. Most of them haven't even been close to this total. 

This one is played on a neutral floor and Joe Louis Arena is noted for a bad shooting backdrop with it being a hockey arena. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Brown Bears and Columbia Lions met earlier this year and the posted total was 157.5. The game finished at 161 points. Why would this total be posted so much lower than the first meeting? I see some value here.

Brown has by far the worst defense in the Ivy League. The Bears have managed to make a lot of subpar offenses look really good this year. 

Columbia prefers to play quickly, but they have been slowed down by their last few opponents. They'll get to play quickly here. I think Columbia's recent low scoring games gives us extra value here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Princeton Tigers have been an under machine of late. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 games, and the one that went over went over by half a point. Princeton has slowed their tempo down drastically as they are short handed. It was worked out really well for the Tigers.

Harvard is the second best team in the league, and they are the only ones with a chance to catch Princeton. The Crimson are the second best defense in the Ivy League. They are allowing only 0.96 points per possession.

Princeton is the best defense in the league. They are allowing only 0.895 points per possession. 

The first meeting between these two saw a final of 57-56. Neither of these teams get to the line much, and with a slow pace and good defense I expect a very low scoring game. 

In the Ivy League since 2005, games between two teams with a 10-2 record or better in the league who are matched up against each other in March have stayed under the total in 7 out of 8 contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal Poly Mustangs put up a bunch of long range jumpers. They have a lot of young guys who were struggling shooting the ball early in the year, but they are shooting it well of late. Cal Poly coasted to an 85-71 at CS Northridge a few weeks ago.

Cal State Northridge plays at the fastest pace of anyone in the conference. Northridge is 329th in the country in defensive efficiency. Cal Poly is 331st in the country in defensive efficiency. There should be a lot of open jumpers in this game. 

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

Both teams foul way more than the average team. Northridge ranks first in the nation in free throw attempts per game. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves and Drake Bulldogs meet in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on Thursday night. This tournament is played at the Scottrade Center.

There aren't many places with a worse shooting backdrop than the Scottrade Center. The background here is far different than the average gym, and it has made shooting percentages very low here and the under is a whopping 52-28 in the last 80 games played in this arena.

These two played last week at Drake and the posted total was 144 or 144.5. Why would the total be higher when played on a neutral court that is terrible for shooters? Also, this is win or go home time, which usually slows down the pace of play as well.

These are two poor shooting teams, and in this arena I have to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers and Tulane Green Wave played to a pace of 76 possessions in their game earlier this year. Ugly shooting numbers for Tulane kept that game to just 139 points total. There were also only 34 free throws attempted in that game (solidly below the average).

Tulane is dead last in the conference in two point field goal percentage defense. Memphis goes to the rim a lot, and I think they'll get a lot of easy shots here. 

Tulane plays at the fastest pace of any team in the conference. Memphis is likely to be glad to push the pace and run it up on Tulane after some disappointing losses of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have picked up their tempo a lot down the stretch. Western Kentucky plays relatively slowly, but they have scored at a very efficient rate at home.

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

I don't see any reason to expect much defense here. Both teams are giving up 1.11 points per possession on the year defensively. They both rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in that category.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners have been very inefficient shooting the ball this year, but their shooting numbers are slowly rising of late. UTSA has also been playing quicker in recent games. 

Charlotte plays extremely fast. They rank in the top 25 in the country in pace of play. They will try to dictate the pace here, and I think they'll be able to.

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

I think this one should get into the 150's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. There aren't many places with a worse shooting backdrop than the Scottrade Center. The background here is far different than the average gym, and it has made shooting percentages very low here and the under is a whopping 52-28 in the last 80 games played in this arena.

Evansville and Indiana State are averaging 0.99 and 0.96 points per possession, so these are two of the worst offenses in the conference to start with. Add in the really tough neutral floor and I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Niagara Purple Eagles met twice in the regular season. The final score of those two games finished at 159 points and 170 points. That alone would suggest this total is about right. However, if you consider that this is a win or go home game and this is played in a terrible venue for shooters, this total is too high.

This is played in Albany at the Times Union Center. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 games at this building when it is a neutral site. Shooters have a rough time here consistently.

Since both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency, 165 is a lot of points to have to reach with a poor gym for shooters.

Take the under. 

*4 Star VCU/Dayton Totals MONEY* The Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams rank number one and number two in the Atlantic 10 in defensive efficiency. The first game between these two finished at 141 points after a major foul fest in the last few minutes. It was pacing for a score far lower than that.

This game fits a nice late regular season under system where both teams have a great (64% or better) winning percentage and both teams have a lot to play for. In these spots, the defenses generally play well. This system is hitting 56.5% for the past ten years. 

I see a close game here, and I think this one stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This isn't a game I would play the over on during the middle of the regular season. This is a low over though between two teams who have little to play for right now. They are in the last week of the regular season, and they care a lot more about the conference tournament than this game. 

This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

The first meeting between these two went comfortably over the posted total.

UConn has been shooting the ball really well of late. The Huskies defense has regressed of late. East Carolina is much better offensively at home.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

UMass has played really fast all year. The Minutemen have finally started to shoot the ball a little better of late. They continue to foul at a really high rate, so Richmond will be on the line a bunch here.

Richmond is playing much faster this year. They rank in the top 75 in the country in tempo. 

UMass has seen 7 of their last 8 games go over this total. Richmond has seen 7 of their last 10 go over the total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Mason Patriots really shoot the ball well. They have sped up their tempo a great deal as well. This is a team that is playing faster than the average team in the country, where they previously were a team that stalled. 

Duquesne is one of the fastest paced teams in the country every single year, and they are once again very fast paced this season. They also have the worst defense in the A 10, and George Mason should shoot it really well against them. 

This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado State Rams are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. This time of the year you can find games where teams have nothing to play for, but Colorado State has to keep winning games. 

The fact that they need this game means it is more likely they will be invested on the defensive end of the floor. Colorado State is allowing only 0.996 points per possession so far this year in Mountain West play. 

Wyoming loves to run, but the Cowboys aren't very efficient on offense. They rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency.

The first meeting between these two finished at 151, and that was with 57 free throw attempts. My numbers had this game a few points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Hurricanes have really slowed down the pace in their recent games. Their last five games have been played to a pace of 63 or less, which is very slow. 

Virginia Tech has slowed down considerably of late as well. The Hokies are without one of their best players in Chris Clarke. They aren't particularly deep, and I think this has been a conscious effort to slow things down. 

The first game saw the final get to 142 with both teams scoring a bunch at the end in a foul fest. The game had paced to a much lower number. In that one, Clarke had 13 points and 5 boards.

Miami ranks 18th in the country in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams both rank in the top 30 in the country in defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have been very consistent at slowing the game down this year. This is their last home game, and I think they'll fight hard for this game. That should mean they work hard on the defensive end. 

Arkansas Little Rock has seen 12 of their last 16 games stay under this total. Georgia Southern has had 9 overs and 7 unders versus this line.

Little Rock's defensive numbers are better at home, and they have played two of their last three home games to the two slowest paced games they have played in the league all year.

This number has been steamed upward. In this case, I'm willing to fade the steam.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the first game of the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament for these two teams. As a general rule, conference tournaments have been better to under players down through the years.

NJIT has decided to slow the tempo down in a big way in recent weeks. NJIT has been able to hold Lipscomb to a much slower tempo than Lipscomb usually plays in both of their meetings this season. I trust NJIT to try to keep the tempo low here once again. 

The first two meetings this year were 128 points and 150 points. The one that finished at 150 points saw 25 made three pointers between the two teams, and yet it still finished nine points below this total. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over quite a bit in the halfcourt sets, which definitely helps the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Carolina Catamounts take on the VMI Keydets square off in the regular season finale for both teams. These two are the worst two teams in the Southern Conference. 

Late in the year, when teams are still playing in the regular season and they are both bad teams, the over has to be considered. When the total is as low as this one, systems suggest the over has been a great play long term in this situation.

Why does this matter? Bad teams often try to slow the game down, but when it is your last regular season game and you are preparing for a conference tournament in the next few days, all rules are off. Usually that means less defense and a quicker pace. 

The first game between these two was 79-78. Western Carolina has been awful shooting the ball this year, but it appears VMI's defense is bad enough that anyone can shoot it against them. 

VMI pushes the pace, and they are good enough on offense to score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*3 NCAA BB Sunday Night Total DOMINATION* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets meet in South Bend on Sunday night.

Georgia Tech beat Notre Dame 62-60 at home earlier this year. The Yellow Jackets made a buzzer beater in that one. Notre Dame is a big favorite here, and the Yellow Jackets offense has really struggled on the road. They are averaging only 0.92 points per possession on the road in the ACC.

Notre Dame definitely prefers to play a slow tempo, and Georgia Tech has played to the pace of their opponent this year. The first game was a very slow tempo throughout. 

Look for Notre Dame to get the lead and then take the air out of the ball late in the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars and Memphis Tigers met earlier this year and the game played to a 70-67 final in overtime. I expect this game to stay under the posted total as well.

Memphis and Houston are both solid on defense, and neither team has been getting to the line much at all. 

Memphis shoots too many shots from long range, where they haven't been efficient at all throughout the course of the season. Houston shoots the ball well, but their shooting percentages are much lower on the road than at home.

This line has been pushed up enough to where I see value on the under.

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastodons play very fast. They are favored here by 7 points, and I think they'll be able to push the pace throughout this contest. 

Western Illinois is really bad defensively. Fort Wayne is just as bad. Both of these teams are allowing a ridiculous 1.12 points per possession inside Summit League play. 

Western Illinois is dead last in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Fort Wayne is in the bottom 20 in the country in the same category. 

Both of these offenses shoot it at almost 40% from 3 point range. The first meeting saw the game go over the posted total as both teams lit it up from long range. Don't be surprised to see the same again here.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies have a tremendous defense. They are allowing only 0.954 points per possession inside the conference. Long Beach State's offense is scoring 1.087 points per possession, but the 49ers struggled offensively vs. UC Davis at home earlier this year, and now they go on the road to face them again.

This is a key battle for two teams that have a lot to play for. Davis is tied for first in the conference and Long Beach is only 1.5 games back with three games to play. The more important the game, the more I like the under.

In the first game, the score was 55-55 before overtime, and it finished at 147 points total. This one is several points too high in my opinion. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* I don't normally like to play overs with Old Dominion, but this number is too low for me to pass up. Old Dominion has been quite a bit better on offense of late, and they are going against a terrible defense here.

Western Kentucky is allowing 1.11 points per possession. Old Dominion burned them for 79 points in their first meeting. Western Kentucky has allowed 72 points or more in 9 of their last 13 games. The Hilltoppers offense ranks 4th in Conference USA in efficiency, and they have several good jump shooters on their roster.

Late in the season, taking low overs with teams who aren't elite teams has been a great long term angle. I'll back that angle here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Southeast Missouri State has been very good on defense of late. They have allowed 67, 71, 61, and 69 points in regulation in their last four games. That is despite the fact that they have played two of the three best offenses in that span. They have been good defensively regardless of who they are against.

Austin Peay and SE Missouri State played to a 82-71 final a few weeks ago. The shooting numbers were much above average in that game, and yet the score stayed well under this total. The tempo was only 68 possessions.

SE Missouri State's changing defenses slowed the game down, and I think that will happen again.

This total is so high that I have to side with the under. This game will be relatively high scoring, but this is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have consistently been a great under team this year. Baylor is sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bears are in the bottom 20 in the country in terms of tempo as well.

Iowa State ranks near the middle of the pack in tempo. The first game between these two was 65-63.

Baylor has made it a habit of winning at Iowa State, where almost no one else wins. Iowa State should be hyped for this game. At the same time, Baylor should bring their best effort on defense.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes have always wanted to play slowly. Miami has slowed down even more in recent games. Miami has played six of their last seven games to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. 

Duke has played 3 of their last 6 games to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. I don't think the Blue Devils will push the pace too much here.

This is an important game for both teams. They are fighting for positioning in the very tough ACC. Duke's defense has gotten better in recent games, but it still isn't all that good. Miami's offense really struggles with efficiency though.

These are two teams who don't foul much, and with a slow tempo and not much fouling, I'll take the under at this number.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the Week* The Drake Bulldogs play faster than anyone else in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake pushes the pace and plays some terrible defense. They are dead last in the MVC in defensive efficiency. That combination leads to much higher scoring games than we are accustomed to seeing in this conference.

Bradley plays at an average tempo, but they ran some with Drake in the first meeting. It finished at 151 points. The Braves get to the free throw line more than any other team in the conference, and their offense has gotten better over the course of the season.

Drake has consistently had higher scoring games than this in the MVC. Neither team has a lot to play for here, and that usually means more scoring.

I made this line 146 points, so I really like this play. At this kind of price, I see a lot of value here.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Loyola Marymount Lions and the San Francisco Dons played a game earlier this month. The final in that one was 74-64. Interestingly, both teams shot the ball horribly from the floor. They put up 0.97 and 0.84 points per possession in that game. Neither team could make their free throws at all in that one. It still edged over this total because they played at such a quick pace.

If these teams want to play at a quick pace, I have to take the over in this contest. You have to assume they'll shoot the ball better than they did in the first game. For the year overall, both are averaging about 1.04 points per possession.

I had this number at 142, and I think this one is a good value at this price.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers are second in the Big West in tempo. They are first in the Big West in offensive efficiency. Guess who is last in the Big West in defensive efficiency. It is their opponent in this game- Cal Poly. 

The first game between these two was 89-89 at the end of regulation. I don't expect this one to be that high, but I do think it goes over this total.

The spread sits at eight points, which is a perfect fouling margin for the end of the game if it comes to fruition. Cal Poly fouls more than any other team in the Big West, and Long Beach State should live on the line here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Florida has the worst defense in the conference. Tulsa isn't a good offense, but they are better on their home court. They should be able to take advantage of this poor South Florida defense.

One thing Tulsa does well is get to the line. They are first in the conference in trips to the free throw line. South Florida fouls more than any other team in the conference. The trips to the line should add up quickly for Tulsa.

South Florida is playing faster than anyone in the conference since Murray Bartow took over as their interim coach. The Bulls pushed the pace to a whopping 78 possessions in their loss at home to Tulsa earlier this year. 

With the tempo expected here, I have to play the over at this number, even though there is a chance the shooting numbers won't be great. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Admittedly, it seems a little strange to be betting an over when the first meeting between these two teams was 57-55. Still, I see plenty of reasons for playing the over.

UTSA has been picking up their tempo gradually throughout the course of the season. The Roadrunners are also fouling much more in recent games. If FIU leads late in this game, UTSA has proven they will foul endlessly in late game situations and that can pile up the points fast. 

FIU is the worst defense in the conference. UTSA doesn't shoot it well overall, but they'll get a bunch of open looks against this defense. FIU has also played much quicker of late. 

In FIU's last 8 games, only one of them has stayed below this posted total. UTSA has played three straight games over this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have slowed their pace down some of late, and I suspect that is why some money has come in on the under. Still, Oklahoma State is easily first in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and last in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Kansas State is first in the conference in trips to the free throw line. Oklahoma State has fouled more than any other team in the conference. Kansas State and Oklahoma State are both really poor on the defensive glass, and I expect a lot of second chance points in this game.

The first meeting was 96-88. The pace in that game was 75 possessions. If they play that quickly again, it would take some really bad shooting to not reach the total here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs have the worst defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also play at the fastest pace of any team in the league. That obviously means they can give up some pretty big point totals.

Drake has allowed 82 points or more seven times in Missouri Valley Conference play. The Bulldogs are giving up 1.12 points per possession on the year. Only twice in conference play has Drake played a game at a tempo of less than 68 possessions. 

Loyola Chicago doesn't play very fast, but they are really efficient on offense. They aren't very good on defense either. 

The first game between these two was 102-98. This one won't get close to that point, but it doesn't have to. 

Loyola's efficient offense and Drake's fast paced style of play should be able to get us past this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bradley Braves aren't a good team, but they are a lot better than they were last season. Bradley's biggest struggle on the offensive end is with turnovers. They are much better offensively when they play against teams who don't force many turnovers. Missouri State is one of those teams. In fact, Missouri State is last in the Missouri Valley Conference in forced turnovers this year. 

Missouri State has been pretty good offensively in the league this year. The Bears have been shooting it well from long range. Missouri State has been a good over team for the last couple years in the MVC.

The over is 14-3 in Missouri State's last 17 road games. The over is 21-7 in their last 28 MVC games. 

I don't see a high scoring game here, but this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I intended to play the over on, but this number is too low. Indiana State has one of the worst defenses in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Sycamores are allowing 1.046 points per possession on the year. They also play at the second fastest pace of any team in the league.

Northern Iowa is obviously a team that slows the game down and has low scoring games, but even with that being the case, 10 of their games inside the conference have gone over this low total.

Both teams are coming off much worse shooting performances than their season average. I have a system where I play the over when both teams are coming off bad shooting performances. There aren't a bunch of plays like this, but it has hit 56% in the past ten years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Ball State Cardinals both like to push the tempo. Eastern Michigan ranks 43rd in least amount of time used on their average offensive possession. Ball State ranks 75th in the country in the same category. That puts both teams in the fastest 20% of teams in the country.

Ball State is great from 3, and this Eastern Michigan zone is susceptible to teams who shoot the 3 ball really well. Ball State has scored 115 and 88 points in their last two games against this Eastern Michigan defense.

Eastern Michigan fouls a bunch, and Ball State is great at the free throw line also. The expectation here should be that both teams will get to the line a lot thanks to aggressive defense and a lot of offensive boards in this contest.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Big 12 Game of Week* The Baylor Bears are tremendous at controlling the pace of the game. The Bears are 328th in the country in tempo out of 351 teams. They are the slowest paced team in the Big 12.

Baylor is also the best defense in the Big 12, and it isn't even close. The Bears are allowing opponents to score only 0.91 points per possession for the year overall. 

Baylor has played seven home games in the Big 12, and zero of them have gone over this posted total. I don't see any reason to expect this one to go over the total.

Earlier this year Baylor beat Oklahoma on the road 76-50. The tempo was only 63 possessions so Baylor definitely got their way as far as the pace. 

Oklahoma is without their best player, Jordan Woodard, and he is out for the year with an injury. The Sooners don't have many good scoring options.

Oklahoma scored 92 points last game against Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma State has the worst defense in the Big 12, and Baylor is at the top of the charts. I think this line has been inflated by that Oklahoma offensive performance last game.

The spread here is 13 and a late fouling fest is certainly less likely with this kind of spread. 

My numbers had this game at 134 points. I like this under a lot.

Take the under big. TOP Rated play. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers are healthy once again. Pookie Powell is one of the team's two best players, and when he was out their offensive production suffered. Powell is back and this offense is a really efficient group. They face a tough defense here, but Rhode Island's fouling problems should mean that LaSalle will still put up quite a few points.

Rhode Island's Jarvis Garrett is now back in the lineup as well, and he is one of the team's best shooters. Garrett gives the team another very good long range shooter. The Rams have shown a willingness to run with the fastest paced teams in the conference, and LaSalle likes to run.

This total was knocked down after the open, and it got to a low enough level that I will take the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Troy has the number one ranked offense in the Sun Belt. They also have the worst defense in the league. That means that despite their pace being pretty average, Troy has had some really high scoring games through the season.

Appalachian State is a really poor defense as well, and they push the tempo in a big way. In their last 3 games, the Mountaineers are averaging 78 possessions per game, which is extremely quick.

Both of these teams excel when it comes to getting to the free throw line. A bunch of points from the charity stripe here should come as no surprise. 

I had this number at 162. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets haven't allowed more than 65 points in a conference home game all year. That is an extremely impressive feat when you consider they have played Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina, and Louisville all at home in ACC play. 

Josh Pastner's team isn't good on offense, and they are trying to slow the game down to win low scoring games. The inefficiency of the GA Tech offense can really hurt them if they get in uptempo games.

Syracuse prefers a slower pace and they are unlikely to find it easy going on offense here. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels offense is horrendous this year. UNLV was only able to muster 51 points in their home loss to San Diego State earlier this year. They might struggle to get many more than that here.

San Diego State is playing better defense in recent weeks, and Steve Fisher's team always gives great effort on that end of the floor.

San Diego State controls the tempo and UNLV isn't even trying to push the pace now because of their offensive struggles and short bench.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores are coming off their worst shooting game of the year. The Sycamores made only 3/15 three point attempts last game. They made only 17/49 shots overall. 

Indiana State isn't a good offense, but they fit into a nice system here where a team often bounces back and shoots much better in their next game, especially when that game is at home.

Southern Illinois has been playing with more confidence on offense of late. Indiana State ranks as the second worst defense in the MVC as far as efficiency.

I like this one to go over the total. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Midnight MADNESS* The UC Irvine Anteaters are tremendous on defense. UC Irvine is allowing only 0.94 points per possession inside Big West play. UC Irvine is playing against the worst offense in the Big West here. UC Riverside is scoring only 0.905 points per possession on the year.

Riverside has been held in the 50's many times this year, and I'll be surprised if they score more than 55-57 points here. 

Irvine slows the pace down and they have shown to be willing to take the air out of the ball and use clock when they have the lead. Everything points to them winning comfortably here, which only helps the under.

While only 45% of the bets are on the under, 61% of the money is on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night SMASHER* The Cal State Fullerton Titans and UC Davis Aggies meet late tonight. 

UC Davis is the best defense in the Big West. They are giving up only 0.925 points per possession in the Big West. They are playing a Fullerton offense here who ranks in the bottom 50 in the nation in offensive efficiency.

While Davis is really good on defense, they are averaging only 0.9875 points per possession on offense, so they aren't good there. 

The tempo will be relatively quick here, but both teams are far better on defense than offense.

I think the strong defenses keep this under in a tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee State Tigers are allowing only 0.99 points per possession on the year. Tennessee State held Eastern Kentucky to 49 points on the road earlier this year. Now, Tennessee State hosts Eastern Kentucky.

Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee State both prefer a slow pace, so I expect this one to be played at a slow pace. The first game was played at 64 possessions. This should be similar. At that tempo, both teams would have to shoot much higher than their normal percentage from the floor to get past this total.

Tennessee State's defense should get us this under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Murray State Racers have been shooting the ball really well in conference play. Murray State excels at the free throw line, and they'll get a bunch of trips to the line when they play a team like Eastern Illinois.

Eastern Illinois using a really aggressive defense and they are whistled for a bunch of fouls. Eastern Illinois has sped up their pace of play inside the conference. Murray State plays at the quickest tempo of any team in the conference. 

The first game went to 155 points with the two teams shooting just barely below their season averages. I had this game at 156 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners are without their best player, Jordan Woodard, who will miss the rest of the year with an injury. Oklahoma has to slow the tempo down here. They know they can't win a high scoring affair with a team like Oklahoma State. Lon Kruger is a good coach who will instruct his team to slow things down here.

Oklahoma State has become much more deliberate in recent weeks. The Cowboys have played multiple games at a pace of 65 or slower of late, where earlier in the year they were playing at a pace of 80 or even faster at times. It is hard for the oddsmakers to keep up with this change.

The first game between these two didn't get even close to this number. I had this one at 150 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I don't like playing overs that are this high, but I have to take this game. Central Michigan ranks fifth in the country in tempo and they are loaded with great shooters. Ball State is a great shooting team as well. 

These two played to a 181 point final recently and I think this one gets to right about 180 points as well. Both of these teams are terrible on defense, so we can expect some really good shooting percentages.

Combine those strong shooting percentages with the very quick pace that both play and you see a very high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green rank 318th out of 351 in the country in effective field goal percentage. UTSA ranks 349th out of 351 teams. The tempo here will be a little quicker than I normally would like with an under 140, but given the way these two teams shoot the ball I have to take a chance on the under at this number. 

I had 135 here. UTSA is one of the better defenses in the conference, and I expect North Texas to struggle as they are short handed for this game. UTSA has shot the ball extremely poorly on the road this year, and there is no reason to expect different here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first game between these two was 73-68. The shooting numbers for the two teams were fairly average. Kansas got the tempo to be a little quicker than Baylor would like.

In this spot, I think Baylor is able to slow the game down a lot better on their home floor. Baylor got the tempo they wanted at home against Kansas last year in a 66-60 game. I'm not suggesting this game will be that low scoring, but I do think it will be under this total.

Baylor ranks sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bears have been tremendous defensively at home, and they are coming off a poor defensive effort. Look for a strong defensive effort from them in this game. 

I had this game at 140. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats have slowed their tempo back down in recent games. Cincinnati is by far the best defense in the conference. The Bearcats are allowing only 0.89 points per possession in the conference. That ranks among the five best defenses in the country. 

Tulsa struggles with offensive efficiency, and the Golden Hurricane have been slowing down the action of late. I don't expect any pace war here, because I think both will want to play slow.

A few weeks ago these two played a game that finished at 112 points with a very slow tempo of 59 possessions. We have a lot of points to work with compared to that first game, and I see Tulsa struggling to score here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The NC State Wolfpack are allowing a whopping 1.20 points per possession in ACC play. This team isn't even trying on defense, and that's what got Mark Gottfried fired. 

Notre Dame ranks in the top 15 in the country in offensive efficiency. The Fighting Irish have a bunch of good shooters, and NC State is allowing opponents to shoot 42.5% on 3 pointers in ACC play. Notre Dame should find a lot of open looks here.

NC State still has a talented offense led by Dennis Smith. The Wolfpack have been playing really fast of late and they should get out and run against a mediocre Notre Dame defense here.

I had this number at 162. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star College Hoops Play of Day* The Princeton Tigers have decided to slow their tempo down in a big way. Princeton has dealt with a bunch of injuries this year, and their depth isn't good at all. The team has slowed down out of necessity. It is working very well.

Princeton ranks first in the Ivy League in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. The Tigers have played 8 games in the Ivy League and only one of them has gone over this total. 

Yale ranks third in defensive efficiency in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs have been playing pretty fast lately, but I think it is because of who they have been playing against. In 4 of their last 5 games, they have played the teams in the league that want to push the tempo. They face a very slow paced opponent here.

This should be a tight game and this is a solid rivalry where defense usually improves. I had this game at 132 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies aren't the same team they have been in recent years. In the past, they were a team who could never get a stop and they always were great on offense.

Oakland is 230th in the nation in offensive efficiency this year. Their jump shooting has been very poor. Oakland is 60th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they are much improved on this end of the floor. 

Valparaiso ranks first in the league in defensive efficiency, and Oakland torched their defense in the first meeting this year. I have a feeling Valpo comes ready to play on defense in this one. The Crusaders aren't likely to run with Oakland here. They want a halfcourt game. 

This one has been bet up a few points to where I see value here. Both defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have been pushing pace much more in recent weeks. This is a team that was so bad in their halfcourt defense that the coach had to change to a fullcourt press to try to get steals and easy scores. 

Detroit has seen 6 of their last 7 games go to 163 points or higher. The Titans now play against a team who also likes to run in UIC. The Flames haven't been great on offense on the year, but they do shoot the three ball well. Detroit is terrible at guarding shooters beyond the arc. 

On the other side, UIC has seen 4 of their last 5 games go above this posted total, so they are a high scoring team as well. 

This one got bet down as most high totals do, but it is has given too much value on the over for me to pass it up. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The UConn Huskies and Memphis Tigers are similar teams in that they are better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor. UConn racked up some amazing numbers on offense against South Florida twice that skews their league average, but overall they are a mediocre or worse shooting team.

Memphis is averaging 0.977 points per possession on offense. The Tigers shoot 29.6% from 3 point range, and they have been taking too many long range jumpers of late. Memphis is only giving up 0.946 points per possession in the conference though, and they are definitely one of the best defenses in the league.

UConn likes to play at a slow tempo, and Memphis typically plays to the pace of their opponent. The first game between these two finished at 131 points with a slightly quicker tempo than expected. I think things slow down a bit here and I had this at 128 points.

Take the under.  

*3 Star NCAA Hidden GEM Total* I respect the money a lot more in small conference games where the public won't be betting. In this game, 75% of the tickets are on the over, but a whopping 99% of the money is on the over. 

Nebraska Omaha plays at the 9th quickest tempo of any team in the country (out of 351 teams). Oral Roberts ranks 94th in the nation in tempo, so they are willing to run as well. This one should be a track meet. The first game between these two was 103-86. While this one probably won't be that high, I do like it to go over the total.

These two defenses are awful. Omaha is allowing a whopping 1.117 points per possession in the conference. Oral Roberts is allowing a ridiculous 1.149 points per possession. Both offenses should be efficient here.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a Big 12 showdown. These two teams are both right on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament. This game means a lot to both teams. The more important the game is, the more likely it is to be low scoring. 

TCU has to slow down the tempo in this game, and I think they'll do that from the start. The Horned Frogs have slowed things down recently, and they don't want to get into a track meet with Oklahoma State.

The first game between these two was 89-76, but both teams shot over 90% from the free throw line and there was quite a foul fest in the second half. Additionally, both teams shot well over their conference averages from the floor.

I expect these numbers to normalize and I had this total at 154 points. 

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves are terrible on offense. The only way they can consistently score is by getting to the free throw line. Northern Iowa commits by far the fewest fouls of any team in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Northern Iowa played poorly in the middle of the season, but they are playing very well now thanks to some tremendous defense. This is a team that is routinely allowing 50 to 55 points per game, and now they are playing the worst offense in the MVC.

Northern Iowa is great at grabbing the lead and then slowing the tempo of the game down. The Panthers should lead from the start and win with suffocating defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores have one of the worst defenses in the Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola Chicago also has one of the worst defenses in the conference. In fact, these two teams rank second and third worst in the league in defensive efficiency.

Loyola is second in the league in offensive efficiency. Indiana State isn't very efficient on offense, but the Sycamores are second in the league in pace, and they'll get plenty of shots up here.

My numbers had this game at 143 points. 

While only 41% of the bets are on the over in this game, a whopping 95% of the money is on the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The South Florida Bulls have the worst defense in the American Athletic Conference. Cincinnati is much better on the offensive end than they have been in recent years. The Bearcats averaged only 1.06 points per possession two years ago. They averaged only 1.10 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.132 points per possession. 

Cincinnati has shown a willingness to run up the score on the bottom of the AAC this year. They have played their two fastest paced games against Tulane and USF, the two worst teams in the conference. The Bearcats rolled to a 94-53 win over USF earlier this year.

USF just slowed down East Carolina to get their first win in the AAC, but slowing down this potent Cincinnati offense will be a much tougher task. 

Cincinnati will dominate the offensive glass here and get plenty of second chance points. USF is playing at the second fastest pace of anyone in the AAC. 

I had this number at 136. 

Take the over big. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have played only one home game this year that got above 140 points. East Carolina is a miserable team on offense, and they like to slow the game down. 

East Carolina has played poorly on defense on the road, but their defensive efficiency numbers at home are very good. The Pirates gave up 81 points at Temple as the Owls shot one of their best percentages of the season, but I don't think that will happen again here. East Carolina is coming off an embarrassing loss at USF, and the Pirates should be focused here.

The tempo of this game should be around 65 or 66 possessions, which makes this total too high. In fact, I had this number at 130. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats nearly lost their home game against DePaul earlier this year. Villanova built up a double digit lead in that game before winning by only 3. I think that means they will be more focused for this road game. 

Villanova is playing at a slower tempo on the road, and their shooting numbers have been lower away from home. The Wildcats have played two of their conference road games at 59 and 58 possessions. They will slow the pace down here.

DePaul isn't going to force the tempo against a team as good as Villanova. The Blue Demons are going to struggle to score here. Villanova being more focused should show up on the defensive end. This is a DePaul team that is dead last in offensive efficiency in the league. 

I had this game at 135 points. Villanova should grab the lead and slow things down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morgan State Bears rank 342nd in the nation (out of 351 teams) in offensive efficiency. The Howard Bison are even worse at 347th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

When these two get together on ESPNU on Monday night, I expect a really sloppy game. This isn't a game I'd recommend anyone to watch, but I do believe there is good value on the under. 

Howard and Morgan State both play very slowly. The pace in this game should be slow all the way. This is a rare television game for these two and often these smaller schools that get on television see lower shooting percentages than normal in these games because of nerves.

I had this one at 126. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Tigers are playing some tremendous defense this year. Memphis is allowing only 0.926 points per possession inside the American Athletic Conference. 

Temple is averaging only 0.994 points per possession in conference action. Memphis is averaging only 0.978 points per possession. These two offenses aren't efficient. 

Temple is shooting 32% from 3 point range in the conference and Memphis is shooting only 30%. Both defenses are holding opponents to 31.5% or lower from long range. It would be a surprise if these teams knock down a lot of long range jumpers.

Memphis has slowed their pace down dramatically in recent weeks. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games significantly slower than their season average.

The first meeting between these two saw the total finish at 143 points even though both teams shot a much higher percentage from the floor than their season average. Things should level out here.

Take the under.