Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs have been pushing the pace to the extreme of late. Samford has been involved in some really high scoring games. The Bulldogs are one of the best in the league on offense. They are also the very worst defense in the Southern Conference. Who has the second worst defense in the conference? The Citadel.

The Citadel ranks 2nd in the nation (out of 351 teams) in tempo. The Citadel is going to continue to push the pace as fast as they can, and based on all the datapoints we have to go off of from recently, Samford will be glad to run with them.

How about their last few meetings with each other? The last four meetings between them have finished with 181, 188, 198, and 198 points. The first game this year was played to a ridiculous pace of 87 possessions. 

Fast paced all the way again here, and with two terrible defenses- I expect a lot of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday. Nebraska has played their way onto the bubble with some very good defense this year.

Rutgers ranks an excellent 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency (out of 351 teams). Rutgers Coach Steve Pikiell has done a nice job getting his team to buy into his defensive philosophy. 

Both teams rank in the top 25% in the country at defending without fouling. These teams just met a few weeks ago and Nebraska won at Rutgers 60-54. That was an ugly game where the defenses had the upper hand.

They are likely to shoot a bit better here, but I see this being another game where the defenses have the edge. Rutgers' offensive numbers on the road this year are beyond awful.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The George Washington Colonials have decided to shift into a much faster gear in their last six games. They started the season playing extremely slowly. The oddsmakers have yet to account for this change in style of play. 

George Washington has the worst defense in the league, and George Mason's isn't much better. These teams went over the total when they played earlier this year, and both teams have played at a quicker tempo since then. 

This is a game between two subpar teams late in the year, and there are many successful over systems on mediocre or worse teams matching up late in the regular season. 

Look for some carefree play from both teams as they look to get their points and we see very little effort on the defensive end. 

Take the over. TOP Rated Play

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears went to Kansas and nearly won a few weeks ago. Baylor had the lead late, and ended up losing by 3. This should be a very tightly contested game. 

Baylor is the team that wants to slow things down. They have tried to run with some teams in the Big 12 lately and it didn't work. They got back to their normal style of play against Oklahoma State last game and picked up a road win. I have to think they know they don't want to run with Kansas here. 

Both of these teams are very good at defending without fouling, which is a nice plus. 

Kansas has slowed their tempo down notably in recent games. The Jayhawks have only played one game at a pace faster than 69 (74 against Oklahoma)  in their last 8 games.

This total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams are first in the Atlantic 10 in defensive efficiency. The Davidson Wildcats are second in the A 10 in defensive efficiency. Davidson is moving at the slowest pace of any team in the A 10 so far this year. Rhode Island is sixth in the A 10 in pace.

All of these things don't really suggest a number of 145.5. Davidson is excellent on offense, but they are reliant on 3 point shooting. Rhode Island only allowed opponents to shoot 29.5% from 3 point range last year. They are excellent at defending beyond the arc again this year at 32.2% allowed. 

These teams have played each other five times since Davidson entered the Atlantic 10 three years ago. All five of those games have gone under this total- including one of them that went into overtime.

Davidson has shot 44.8% or higher from 3 point range in each of their last three games. That number is likely to regress over time, and against a Rhode Island great defense it may well be here. 

Rhode Island's one weakness on defense is they foul too much. Davidson is dead last in the nation in free throw attempts/field goal attempt though, and that's a big boost.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is no doubt that this isn't a comfortable game to take the under in. Both of these teams are very good on offense. Still, this is an extremely high posted total. 

In the last 10 games of the regular season in the last three years- the under is hitting 59% when the total is 159.5 or higher. 

USC plays quickly on offense, but opposing offenses have played at the slowest pace in the country (351st). Why? USC is playing a lot more zone this year, and they are mixing up their defenses very well.

Arizona State has been money against man to man defenses, but they have struggled quite a bit in Pac 12 play against zones. You have to think USC will use zone a decent amount here.

In the Pac 12- Arizona State is 8-3 to the under on this posted total. USC is 9-1-1 to the under on this number.

This one is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Washington Huskies have the number one ranked defense in the Pac 12 so far this year. Washington's zone defense under Coach Hopkins has been tremendous. They are very active in the zone, and they force turnovers at a high rate. The weakness of this Washington defense is their defensive rebounding, but Oregon has been poor at getting second chances in Pac 12 play.

Oregon is no longer playing quickly. The Ducks are the third slowest team in Pac 12 action. The Ducks shoot a lot of three pointers, and they aren't very good at them. Washington is best in the Pac 12 at defending the three point shot. 

Washington has seen 8 of their last 10 go under this number. Their zone is an equalizer, and I think it slows things down quite a bit here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This Sun Belt tilt should be higher scoring than the oddsmakers believe. South Alabama is pushing the pace in a big way, and they are getting to the line more than any other team in the conference. South Alabama should make a living on the line here. Little Rock fouls more than any other team in the conference.

Though Little Rock doesn't play very fast, they are atrocious on defense, and that has made their games high scoring.

Little Rock has seen 9 of their last 11 games go over this posted total. South Alabama has seen 9 of their last 10 go over this posted total.

This one fits a nice angle as well. When both teams in the game are coming off five consecutive games shooting 40% or worse from 3 point range, the over is hitting at 61% in the last 10 years when the posted total is 132 or lower. This suggests an overreaction from the oddsmakers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints are short handed right now. They are without Nico Clareth who was their best player and leading scorer. They are now also without Roman Penn who has been a key contributor. Siena has slowed the pace to a halt since their main scorers have gone out. They are looking to make the game sloppy and win a low scoring battle.

Canisius and Siena played a 65-62 game at Siena's pace (62 possessions) earlier this year. Siena now has less scorers than they had for that game.

Both of these teams are good at forcing turnovers, and I expect a lot of wasted possessions in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Hofstra Pride have consistently been excellent on offense and poor on defense over the years. They are the same this season. Hofstra is 70th in offensive efficiency and 280th in defensive efficiency. They also prefer to play at a fast pace.

Elon made a lot of changes to their schemes in the offseason. It has helped the offense and hurt their defense. Elon was 113th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 241st this year. They averaged 1.051 points per possession on offense in the conference last year, but they are all the way up at 1.118 points per possession this year.

Last year's meetings both went over the total. Both teams are better over teams this year.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The UC Irvine Anteaters have the best defense in the Big West. Cal State Northridge is averaging a miserable 0.899 points per possession in conference play. On the season, Northridge is 340th out of 351 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. 

What about UC Irvine's offense? They are 255th out of 351 in offensive efficiency. They don't have the go to scorer like Luke Nelson who they had as a go to guy in recent years. 

Northridge is significantly slower than the average team. They are 293rd in tempo in the country. Irvine is 218th. 

The first game between these two was played to a pace of 61 possessions and the final was 71-54. UC Irvine shot better than normal in that game and Northridge shot almost exactly their normal percentages.

This line is more than 5 points too high.

Take the under. TOP Play

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have played 11 SEC games thus far. Only one of those games has gone over this total. That was against the very fast paced Auburn Tigers. 

Vanderbilt ranks 323rd in the nation in average possession length. They are using 19.0 seconds on average before putting a shot up. The Commodores won't look to play quickly here. 

Georgia is 322nd in average possession length and 337th in overall tempo. The Bulldogs want to grind out the game. 

Vanderbilt's defense has been bad this year, which has led to quite a few high scoring games for them, but this is a different type of opponent. Georgia is dead last in the SEC in offensive efficiency. They have been reliant on second chance points, and Vanderbilt has been good on the defensive glass.

The tempo of this game should lead to a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials were a great under team through the first couple months of the season. Things have changed of late. They have picked up their tempo quite a bit. George Washington was regularly playing at a pace of 61-64 possessions per game. In their last six games, they haven't played a game below 67 possessions. 

LaSalle was without leading scorer B.J. Johnson for several games this year, and that has their stats a little out of whack for the season as a whole. With him in the lineup, LaSalle is a top 100 offense in the country. They rank third in the A 10 in tempo as well.

LaSalle is giving up 1.06 points per possession on defense in conference play, and George Washington is allowing a ridiculous 1.133 points per possession on defense in A 10 play. 

Two bad defenses and recent trends pointing to a quicker tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wofford Terriers are averaging a very impressive 1.131 points per possession in SoCon play. Samford is allowing a ridiculous 1.193 points per possession on the season as a whole. Samford has the worst defense in the league, and Wofford shouldn't have any trouble putting up a big number here.

Samford's recent pace of play is the main reason for this selection. The Bulldogs are playing at a pace much faster than they started the season. The Citadel is noted for their fast pace (2nd fastest in the country), and Samford has played at almost exactly the same pace as them in their last five games. Samford is solid on offense with multiple good shooters, and they are shooting 82% from the free throw line in conference play.

The first meeting between these two went to 182 points. This one isn't likely to get that high, but I expect it to be high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The tempo will definitely be slow in this one. Michigan and Northwestern play a similar style of game, and it's hard to imagine either of these teams speeding things up.

Northwestern played relatively slowly to start with, and now they are playing a lot more zone defense to slow things down even more. The Wildcats are playing at 64.3 possessions per game in the conference. Michigan is playing at a pace of 64.4 possessions per game in the conference. That tempo would rank in the bottom 25 in pace in the country as a whole.

These teams just met 8 days ago. They played to a pace of 59 possessions and there were only 24 free throws. Neither of these teams gets to the line much at all, and I expect a similar tempo with slightly better shooting numbers in this game.

My number here was 125.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best defense in the MAC. They are first in effective field goal percentage defense. Eastern Michigan was extremely weak on the defensive glass last year. They still aren't good there, but they are much better than a year ago. Kent State ranked in the top five in the nation in offensive rebounds last year, but they are 89th this year. 

Eastern Michigan will slow the tempo down with their zone defense here. Kent State hasn't seen this type of a zone this year. The Golden Flashes don't shoot the ball well from long range. 

Eastern Michigan ranks 10th in the MAC in offensive efficiency. They have turnover problems that should hurt them against a trapping Kent State defense. 

Four of the last five games in this series have stayed under this number, and E Michigan is playing slower this year than in previous seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This play is mostly about Samford's recent tempo change. Coach Padgett has often talked about wanting his team to play fast, and they have started doing it in a big way in their last four contests. They pushed a slow paced Chattanooga team to 79 possessions. They pushed VMI to a pace of 80 in their recent game. This team isn't slowing down for anyone right now.

Western Carolina isn't good on offense, but they are weak defensively as well. Samford ranks fifth worst in the nation in defensive efficiency out of 351 teams.

Two terrible defenses here and one team who pushes the pace to an extreme, but the total here isn't all that high.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders are the team to beat in Conference USA. This is a team that plays tremendous defense, and they have a veteran group with a lot of basketball smarts. 

MTSU is a big favorite here and they should win comfortably. That helps this play because MTSU is the much slower paced team. If they get a big lead, that should help the under.

Even with one game going into overtime and one game being against Marshall who plays about as fast as anyone in the country, MTSU has seen all 10 of their games stay under this total. That 10-0 angle isn't one to overlook here. This is a great defensive team.

Charlotte plays quickly, but they are very inefficient on offense. They aren't likely to shoot the ball well against this defense.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Georgia Bulldogs have been an excellent under team all year, and their under trends have been much stronger recently. This is a team that is stalling in a big way, and they are struggling on offense. They are excellent on defense though.

Georgia is in big trouble offensively when they aren't getting to the free throw line. Mississippi State's defense is very good at defending without fouling. 

These are the 12th and 19th rated defenses in the country when it comes to defensive efficiency. On offense, they are 159th and 127th. 

In Georgia's last 10 games, only one game finished at a total higher than 132 in regulation. In fact, 7 of the 10 have been 127 points or lower. They have been very consistent.

Mississippi State typically plays to the pace of their opponent, and here that's a very good thing. 

Look for a hard fought defensive struggle.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats are the second slowest paced team in the country. This team is much better on defense than on offense. They are a very good under team.

Appalachian State likes to play quickly, but they aren't playing quite as fast as they did a year ago. The Mountaineers like to shoot a lot of 3's, but Texas State ranks 24th in the nation in 3 point field goal % defense.

These two teams met twice last year. The final totals were 125 and 123 points. They met earlier this year and the final total was 128 points. These teams have shown us what tempo and how the style goes consistently when they square off. I see another game in the 120's here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Dakota and Montana meet on Saturday in Big Sky conference action. There are multiple very good trends on Big Sky overs, and many of them apply to this game. This is a league where very little defense is played.

The first meeting between these two went to 188 points. Will they score that much in this one? It's highly unlikely, but I think this total is too low.

Montana likes to run when they can, and they are great at getting to the line. The Grizzlies weakness is their fouling on the defensive end. Both of these teams foul a lot and both get to the line a lot. Expect a lot of points at the stripe here.

North Dakota has pushed the tempo against top teams at home in the past, and I don't see them changing here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers and Missouri State Bears play a very similar style of basketball. No one here is going to want to push the pace. These are two teams who look to slow things down and win with their defense.

When these two met earlier this year it played to the expected tempo and it was 64-59. Both of these teams do a solid job defending without fouling. Missouri State has relied on offensive rebounding for much of the year to do damage on offense, but Loyola is very good on the defensive glass.

An MVC defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights aren't nearly as good on defense without the 7'6 presence of Tacko Fall in the middle. UCF changes the way they play without him, and Houston is one of the best offenses in the league.

Also important is the fact that Houston is pushing the pace this year. UCF is much more likely to play quickly without Fall in the lineup than they are with him.

Both games between these two last year went over the total easily. Now, UCF has their leading scorer Taylor healthy again, and they are much worse on defense. Houston is playing much quicker than a year ago.

This number is too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints are using a new offense this year. It is much slower than they have run in past years. They were already using this slowed down attack before they lost key players, but now that they are without many offensive stars they have slowed down even further.

Siena lost star Nico Clareth after 15 games. He is the only guy on the team averaging double figures. With him off the team now, their leading scorer is averaging 9.7 points per game. Khalil Richard has been the team's top 3 point shooter this year, but he is expected to miss this game with an injury. He averages 8.1 ppg. Jordan Horn, who averages 7.5 ppg is questionable due to an injury here as well.

In 3 of Siena's last 4 games, they have played to a regulation pace of 59 possessions or slower. They are using a whopping 21.0 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Manhattan is the second slowest paced team on offense in the MAAC. Siena is the slowest. No one will be pushing the pace here.

Manhattan is 9th out of 11 in the MAAC in offensive efficiency. Siena is 11th. These two also turn it over more than any other teams in the league. Those wasted possessions should help out the under here.

Look for a sloppy low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Total of WEEK* The St. Mary's Gaels are one of the best teams in the country when it comes to controlling the tempo. St. Mary's slows things down and they rank 20th slowest in the country in tempo. They'll want to play slowly here.

San Francisco ranks among the 100 slowest teams in the country out of 351 as well. The Dons are also 218th in offensive efficiency. They aren't likely to be able to shoot the ball at a high percentage on the road at St. Mary's. 

St. Mary's defense was poor in non-conference action compared to their norm, but they have been much better of lat.e The Gaels are allowing less than 0.96 points per possession in WCC play. 

These two met twice last year and the final totals were 115 and 112 points. St. Mary's is a little quicker and not quite as good on defense, so I don't think this one stays that low, but this is way too big of an adjustment.

St. Mary's is good at slowing things down with the lead, and they are a big favorite here. Look for them to slow the game down even more with things in hand late.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Big Sky is a conference where almost no one plays good defense. Overs in the Big Sky have done extremely well. That is especially the case when the number has been set at a relatively low posted total for this conference. 

There is a system that has cashed 60.6% of the time on the over in the Big Sky dating back to 2007. The sample size here is more than 300 games. 

-It is a Big Sky conference game with a total of 153.5 or lower. The home team allows at least 35.5% makes on 3 point attempts and the spread is no more than 13 points in either direction. 

This game fits the system. The first game between these two was 82-67 with only 26 free throws attempted in the game. Both teams had their big men scoring easily on the inside in that game. 

Nine of Sacramento State's last 10 games have gone over this total. Eastern Washington has seen 14 of their last 17 games go over this low number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers played twice last year. The final totals in those games were 113 and 102 points. They played earlier this year and the total was 101. The oddsmakers obviously can't line a game that low here, but I think there are some solid reasons to believe this one will be very low again.

Texas State is 348th in the nation in overall tempo. The Bobcats are also worse on offense and better on defense than they were last year. 

Coastal Carolina is playing a bit slower than last year, and they are also down from last year on offense and improved on defense. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 40 in the country in turnovers as a percentage of their possessions. The recent games between these two have featured a bunch of wasted possessions, and I think this one will as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Northwestern/Wisconsin Total TAKEDOWN* The Northwestern Wildcats have started playing quite a bit of zone defense in recent games. Coach Collins decided their man defense had been bad enough that he wanted to switch things over. It has helped them be more competitive against quality teams, and it has slowed the tempo of their games down.

Wisconsin ranks 345th in tempo in the country. The Badgers are coming off a poor defensive performance in the second half against Nebraska in their last game. I expect a better effort on defense here.

The tempo here should be extremely slow, and both teams have had issues on offense this year. Wisconsin has scored 63 points or fewer in 5 of their last 7 games. Northwestern was held to 46 points at Indiana and to 47 points at Michigan in recent games.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Southern Miss Coach Doc Sadler said before the season that his team would play much faster and shoot it much better than last year. He was right. Southern Miss is playing about 3 possessions per game quicker than last year in conference play. They are also 4th in the conference in offensive efficiency after being 14th last year. On the other side though, Southern Miss has dropped from 8th in CUSA in defensive efficiency to 14th. They aren't guarding well at all.

FIU averaged 18.8 seconds before shooting the ball last year. This year they have sped up to where they are averaging only 17.1 seconds before putting up a shot. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in the country in turnover percentage. They value the ball very well. 

With a quicker pace and Southern Miss' worse defense I think this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Not many teams can dictate tempo as well as the Long Beach State 49ers. Long Beach State wants to run, and they are great at forcing the issue. Long Beach State has had a tempo of 71 possessions or quicker in all of their Big West games. That includes the first game against UC Irvine which played to a very fast pace of 74 possessions.

UC Irvine has played 10 games to a tempo of 71 or quicker this year. They usually slow things down a bit, but they are willing to run with some teams. UC Irvine fouls at a very high rate, and Long Beach State excels at getting to the line. 

Though the shooting numbers from three point range in the first meeting aren't likely to be repeated, there were only 28 free throws total in the first game and that number should go up here.

Long Beach State hasn't scored less than 70 points in a Big West game this year. They have scored 75 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The 49ers defense is among the worst in the league. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have been tremendous at controlling the pace of a game on both ends of the floor. Virginia is first in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they are first by a mile. Virginia is allowing only 0.808 points per possession on the year. Opponents are only shooting 42% on two point field goals against them. This defense is tremendous. 

Since the start of ACC play, only one team has gotten Virginia to play at a tempo faster than 65 possessions and that was VA Tech in a blowout. The Cavs have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 52 points or less. Virginia also plays at the single slowest pace out of 351 teams in the country.

Louisville is 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cardinals are 140th in effective field goal percentage offense. This Cardinals team likes to play fast, but they are much better on defense than offense.

These teams are very similar to what they have been in recent years as far as schemes. They have played 6 times in the last three years. Only once have they gone above 116 points total in their game. That was last year's final meeting when Virginia shot 53.2% from the floor.

Two elite defenses and one team who is great at controlling the tempo on the slow side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.84 points per possession. That's only behind Virginia. Cincinnati is a very aggressive defense that can really worry you because of their physicality. 

Cincinnati ranks 300th in the nation in tempo. The Bearcats prefer a slow it down type of game where they win with defense and their toughness. 

Houston likes to try to force the pace, but they have been unsuccessful at speeding up the slowest teams they have played this year. 

The last four meetings between these two have stayed easily under this number. Houston is better defensively this year than they have been in any of the recent seasons. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas have decided to start pushing the pace again. This is a team that played extremely fast last year. They started the season by slowing down considerably, but the Chippewas have consistently forced the pace of late. Central Michigan is second quickest in MAC conference action on the offensive end.

Northern Illinois is playing at the same pace they were last year, but they are a totally different team. Northern Illinois last year averaged 0.989 points per possession on offense. They gave up only 1.024 points per possession. This year, Northern Illinois is averaging 1.050 points per possession and giving up 1.111 points per possession. Their offense went from a weakness to a strength. Their defense went from a strength to a weakness.

Northern Illinois has allowed 79 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Central Michigan has allowed 70 points or more in seven straight games. Central Michigan has allowed 82 points or more in 4 of their last 7 games.

Two subpar defenses and two offenses who take care of the ball and should score pretty efficiently here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars were playing really quickly in the non-conference slate. That has changed in Pac 12 play. Washington State has used 16.7 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average for the season, but inside Pac 12 play they are using 18.0 seconds of the shot clock on average. 

The Washington Huskies have slowed down just a tick as well, and the Huskies are playing some great defense. Washington ranks first in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. Opponents are averaging only 0.986 points per possession against Washington. The Huskies are first in the Pac 12 in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27.6% of 3 pointers. That's important since Washington State shoots more 3's than anyone in the country. 

Washington is last in the conference in 3 point percentage on offense as well. The Huskies have often struggled in halfcourt sets.

The under is 23-4 in Washington's last 27 Pac 12 games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are very good at making a game low scoring. Northern Iowa is 345th in the country in tempo. The Panthers are also averaging only 0.975 points per possession in the MVC. On defense, N Iowa is 40th best in the country in defensive efficiency. They very rarely foul (11th best in country) and very rarely get to the line.

Loyola Chicago has surprisingly been the best team in the MVC this year. Loyola plays at a similar tempo. The Ramblers rank 316th out of 351 in the country in pace of play. They are much better offensively, and equal for the season defensively to Northern Iowa. Inside the conference, Loyola is allowing only 0.929 points per possession. 

The first game between these two was played at a pace of only 57 possessions. This one I would project at the 59 possession mark, and even at that level it will take some good shooting numbers to get past this total, especially with neither team fouling much (if they stay true to form). 

My numbers are considerably lower here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats ranked 77th in the country in tempo two years ago. They were generally known as a very high scoring team. Last year, they slowed it down to 161st in tempo in the country. This year, they have slowed down drastically, Davidson ranks 320th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. 

Davidson is still a good offense, but there are a lot fewer possessions in their games now than there were in the past. In 3 of Davidson's last 4 contests, there have been 57 possessions or less. That's about as slow as you'll ever see.

Richmond is 228th in the country in tempo. The Spiders won't want to run against a good offense like Davidson. Richmond was able to stop Davidson in the first game, and they won 69-58.

Davidson should get revenge here, and the Wildcats have shown they are perfectly happy to slow the game to a halt late when they have the lead. 

Davidson's previous reputation makes this line too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders are a really good under team for several reasons. First, they are excellent on defense. The Blue Raiders are easily first in the conference in defense, and they are actually 21st best in the nation out of 351 teams. MTSU also slows the tempo down in a big way. MTSU is 310th out of 351 teams in average possession length on offense. MTSU also is also worse on offense this year with JaCorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw gone from last year's very good offense.

MTSU has had only 2 of their 8 games in conference go over this total. One was an overtime game that finished at 137 points. The other was a 136 point game against Marshall, who ranks fourth in the nation in pace of play.

UTEP tends to play to the pace of their opponent. The Miners aren't likely to be able to get things going quickly here. 

I expect MTSU to get a lead here and then slow things down and keep this under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green host the FIU Panthers on Saturday. North Texas is an improved team under new coach Grant McCasland. North Texas is slowing the game down and playing much more competitively on the defensive end than they did a year ago. 

FIU is about average in the country when it comes to tempo, but they are terrible on offense. FIU is 310th out of 351 teams in offensive efficiency. Inside the conference, they are averaging only 0.947 points per possession. They are shooting a miserable 58.6% from the free throw line.

North Texas has kept their home games to lower paces on average. I expect them to be able to slow this one down.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the MONTH* The Missouri State Bears have underachieved so far in the MVC, but they are definitely the better team here. Missouri State is the team that plays very slowly, and I like playing unders when I am trusting the better team (with a good defense) to slow the game down.

Eight of Missouri State's last ten games have finished with a combined total of 124 points or less. They rank 321st out of 351 in the country in tempo. They also rank 9th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 304th in FTA/FGA so they don't spend much time at the line. 

Southern Illinois has had some higher scoring games of late, but that was against the faster paced teams in the league. Those were also teams who can't defend nearly as well as Missouri State. Those higher scoring games have pushed this total up to several points above where it should be.

I think this one stays in the 120's.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas started the season playing slower, but they have gone back to playing quicker again as the season has gone along. Sometimes we see things like this where a team tries to change the way they play, but eventually they end up back with what they are accustomed to.

Kent State and Central Michigan just played three weeks ago. That game finished at 154 points, and it was played at a pace of 75 possessions (very quick). There were only a total of 32 free throws in that game, and the teams shooting percentages were nothing out of the ordinary.

Kent State and Central Michigan are both subpar defenses, and with a quick tempo this should get past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The first time these two met this year the final score was 104-99. I'm not here to predict anything like that again, but I do think this total is too low.

Montana State and Southern Utah are both teams that get to the free throw line a lot, and they both shoot a very high percentage from the line. Both teams foul a bunch as well, and that should mean a lot of trips to the free throw line once again here. 

Montana State ranks 245th in the country in defensive efficiency. Southern Utah ranks 332nd in defensive efficiency. 

Southern Utah is a six point dog here, and they have proven to foul constantly late in the game when they are down. If Montana State does lead late, this will help the over significantly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange have played the fewest bench minutes of any team in the country out of 351 teams. Jim Boeheim's team has a really short bench, and they are expected to be without Matthew Moyer in this one. That should mean Syracuse wants to slow the game down even more than normal to keep their starters fresh.

Pittsburgh is moving at the second slowest pace on offense in the ACC behind only Virginia. The Panthers are without star forward Ryan Luther, and that is a huge hit to the offense.

These two played less than two weeks ago and the final was 59-45. The tempo was only 59 possessions. Another game with a tempo of about 60 and a projected total in the 116-118 range makes sense to me.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have been the slowest paced team in the MAC so far this year when you go by length of possession on offense alone. Eastern Michigan has been the slowest paced team overall in the MAC. 

We get a meeting between two teams who like to slow things down and win the grind it out type games. They have had to play teams like Buffalo and Bowling Green who push the pace in a big way. This game is a chance for them to get back to doing what they want. 

Both teams have significantly better numbers on defense than offense as well. This projects as a low scoring tight game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Georgia State and Texas State have played eight times all time. All of those meetings have come since 2014. None of those games have finished regulation with a combined score higher than 124. 

These teams both prefer to play at a slow pace, but they are playing in a league where there are several teams who push the tempo. Texas State actually ranks 348th in the nation in tempo (out of 351), so they are extremely slow.

Both teams are good at forcing turnovers, and Texas State has been bad at taking acre of the basketball so it is likely they'll waste a decent amount of possessions here. 

I don't see any reason to expect things to change from their past history. Another low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels know how to control the tempo. St. Mary's ranks 341st in tempo. They were 350th last year. This is a system where they are going to use up the clock and find the best shot possible.

St. Mary's has a great offense, but their numbers are at least a little bit propped up by playing against some terrible defenses in the West Coast Conference. Teams like Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount aren't guarding anyone. 

BYU has turned itself into a slower paced team this year, and they are much better on defense. The Cougars are 32nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams are tremendous at grabbing defensive rebounds. Second chance opportunities should be rare here. The first game between these two went into overtime (74-64 final) and there were only a total of 13 offensive rebounds. There were only 29 free throws as well. Both of these teams are great at defending without fouling.

With the tempo I expect, I like the value here on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wichita State Shockers have played 19 games so far this year. How many of them have stayed under this number? Zero. Wichita State's lowest final total this year has been 131 points against a good Baylor Bears defense.

UCF is ranked fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year, but they definitely aren't the fifth best defense in the country without star 7'6 center Tacko Fall in the middle of the paint swatting away and changing shots. Fall was injured a couple games ago, and he is out for the season. 

In UCF's first game without Tacko Fall, they allowed 69 points and 1.08 points per possession (they are allowing 0.897 for the year) to a lowly South Florida offense. South Florida has averaged 0.87 points per possession in AAC play overall. UCF's defense is still good, but they are no longer elite.

UCF's offense will be better now that B.J. Taylor is back and healthy.

Wichita State isn't as good on defense this year. The Shockers were 1st in the country in defensive efficiency two years ago. They were 13th last year. So far this year they are 60th in defensive efficiency. 

Wichita State is playing quicker as well. They should push the tempo enough and score better than expected against UCF without Fall.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 9th in the nation in shortest average time of possession on offense. They are looking to run, and that won't change in this one. Nevada is 61st quickest on offense.

The last two meetings between these two teams have both played at a pace of 84 possessions. That's about as fast as you'll ever see a game played, especially in conference play. Nevada is more than willing to run with Wyoming here.

Both teams excel at getting to the free throw line. Wyoming is 9th in the nation in FTA/FGA and Nevada is 61st in this mark as well. 

This game spread sits right at the fouling range where if the oddsmakers are right and Nevada wins by 5 or 6, you can expect a lot of fouling late. Wyoming has shown they will foul down a bunch late in previous losses this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have been a good under team in recent years. They aren't very efficient on offense, but they are always good on defense.

UC Irvine lost their leading scorer from last year in Luke Nelson. This is a team that has no clear star on the offensive end. They are one of the two or three best in the Big West on defense though. 

UC Riverside has really struggled on offense all year. Riverside has been held to 57 points in two of their last four games, and a very small number from them here wouldn't be a surprise.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in taking care of the basketball. That means a lot of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers defense has been tremendous this year. Nebraska ranks 25th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. On the other side, Rutgers is averaging a miserable 0.88 points per possession in Big Ten play. 

The Scarlet Knights have been held to 59 points or less in regulation in Big Ten play in 5 of their 8 games. Rutgers is competitive this year because they are much improved on defense. Rutgers is 19th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 15th in the nation in effective field goal percentage.

Both teams prefer a slow tempo, and I expect this one to be a rock fight.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UNC Greensboro has been great at controlling the pace of play so far this year. Greensboro is 336th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They have been excellent on defense and subpar on offense all year. 

Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. Greensboro is 3rd in that same category. Furman has been playing to the pace of their opponent so far this year, and that's a good thing for the under here.

All five of Greensboro's last five games have stayed under this number in regulation. That includes an amazing 130 point total against The Citadel, who gets games into the 170's and 180's most of the time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears are expected to be without star Ria'n Holland in this one. Holland is averaging 19.0 points per game on the year. No one else on the team averages more than 10.9 points per game. Holland has a wrist injury and a beat writer said the team expects him to miss at least two weeks. 

Mercer plays at an extremely slow pace. Without Holland, this is an extremely limited offense. They'll rely on the 3 ball to be falling, but E Tennessee State is allowing opponents to shoot only 27.6% from 3 point range in Southern Conference action.

E Tenn State has allowed 61 points or fewer in each of their last four games. Mercer has scored 56 or less in regulation three times in conference play. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma State Cowboys go to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech on Tuesday night. Texas Tech is coming off an ugly loss at Iowa State. Look for Chris Beard's team to be ready to play here.

Texas Tech is fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders have slowed their pace on offense by almost a full second per possession inside conference play. I fully expect them to try to slow this game down, and when you have a great defense and a big favorite who is looking to slow the game down, this is a high total.

Oklahoma State has had two low scoring games in the Big 12 against Baylor and Texas. Those two teams are ranked 8th and 10th in the league in tempo. Who is 9th? Texas Tech. Texas Tech has had only one game in the Big 12 go over this total despite playing some very fast paced teams.

My numbers have this one quite a bit lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals offense has fallen off drastically in recent weeks. Ball State is averaging only 0.979 points per possession in MAC play. Ball State has seen 9 of their last 10 games stay under this total. 

Kent State's offense hasn't been very good either. The Golden Flashes have scored 70 points or less in 7 of their last 10 contests. 

Both teams are playing considerably slower than they did a year ago. Neither team has been very good at getting to the line this year. 

With this being a conference game between two offenses who have struggled and two teams who are playing slower this year, I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are one of the best under teams in the Big 12. Baylor ranked as the slowest paced team in the league last year. They are second slowest so far this season. 

Baylor is excellent on defense as well. The Bears are 21st in defensive efficiency in the country. Baylor defends without fouling much at all. The Bears do struggle with turnovers on offense, and Kansas State ranks in the top 25 in forcing turnovers.

Kansas State plays at a medium tempo. Their ability to mix up defenses often slows the opposition down even more. 

Two of the three meetings between these two last year stayed under this number. Two of the games paced at 62 possessions and 59 possessions. Expect another slow paced game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have been great this season. Chris Holtmann is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country. This is a team that was picked to be near the bottom of the Big Ten. So far, they are unbeaten in the conference.

Ohio State is doing it with both great shooting and elite defense. They are 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. Ohio State is doing a great job defending without fouling. They are also very good at getting defensive rebounds. 

Nebraska has struggled on offense inside the Big Ten for the last few years. I think they'll continue to struggle on offense this year in this conference. Nebraska was putting up better than 1.1 points per possession in non-conference play. They are at 0.99 points per possession inside the Big Ten.

Both teams play at a pace slightly below average. Both are better on defense than offense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners average possession length on offense is 5th shortest of anyone in the country. They are moving extremely quickly and getting up a lot of shots. UTSA also commits an extremely high amount of fouls on the defensive end. They are among the top 15 in the country in most fouls committed. This obviously contributes to a lot of scoring as well.

UTEP is among the top 100 (out of 351) in the country in most fouls committed too. There should be a bunch of trips to the stripe here. 

UTEP is allowing 80.75 points per game in their last four contests. Their defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. UTSA has allowed 73 points or more in each of their last four games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have played all of their Big 12 games so far this year to 140 points or lower.

Kansas is a tremendous offense, but the Jayhawks and Bears have a history of playing lower scoring games against each other. Baylor knows they can't run with Kansas here. The last four times these two have played- the highest scoring game was 141 points. 

Baylor's offensive efficiency is way down this year, but they are still solid on defense. This number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are excellent at getting the pace they want. UNLV definitely wants to run, and I think they can make this a high scoring game.

UNLV has seen their last 11 straight games over this posted total. Three of Colorado State's last six have topped this total as well.

Both of these teams are great at getting to the line. UNLV is 4th in the nation in FT/FGA and Colorado State is 88th (out of 351). 

Look for a fast tempo and lots of trips to the stripe to get this one past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears are 336th in the nation (out of 351) in tempo. UNC Greensboro is 335th in the nation in tempo. Both of these teams want to slow things down, and we should get an extremely slow game here.

UNC Greensboro is playing a full two seconds per possession slower on offense than last year, and that has meant a ton of low scoring games. The Spartans were 173rd in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 68th so far this year.

I project this game to have 59 possessions, and without some really high shooting marks this one will stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Tennessee State Bucs have been the best defense in the SoCon by a large margin this year. They are allowing slightly less than 0.90 points per possession in the conference. 

Western Carolina was the worst offense in the conference last year, and they are second worst so far this season. 

Both of these teams excel at forcing turnovers, and both offenses have struggled with turnovers. Expect a lot of wasted possessions in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles ranked 184th out of 351 teams in tempo last year. So far this season, they are 303rd. This is a team that has slowed things down and decided to try to win low scoring battles with their defense. 

Eastern Michigan has one main weakness on defense: they give up too many offensive rebounds. Ohio is the worst offensive rebounding team in the MAC, so that limits their ability to take advantage of the one weakness.

Ohio is really bad on offense right now. They have averaged 0.918 points per possession in MAC play. That's easily worst in the conference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* LSU has slowed their tempo down drastically in league play. The Tigers play another team who slows things down in a big way here in Vanderbilt. While Vanderbilt has been bad defensively this year, I think their defense should improve a bit from here on out. They were solid last year on defense, and I expect a bit of a regression to the mean.

LSU has been much worse on offense in the conference, and they have been improving steadily on defense.

It's extremely rare to find a game where two teams are going to play as slowly as these two lined with a total of almost 150 points. They'll need to shoot a high percentage to get past this number. I like the value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies have a lot of youth, but this Huskies team is buying into Mike Hopkins' plan on the defensive end. The Huskies have good athleticism and solid length and the 2-3 matchup zone is working well for them. Opponents are scoring only 0.982 points per possession against Washington in Pac 12 play. 

The Huskies offense is averaging only 0.96 points per possession in Pac 12 play. Washington has played four straight fast paced Pac 12 opponents, but all four of those games stayed under this total. 

Utah is playing at the slowest pace on offense of any team in Pac 12 play. The Utes are using 19.9 seconds of the 30 shot clock on average. This will be easily the slowest paced team Washington has played in the conference. The Huskies have been playing very fast paced teams thus far in conference play.

The slower tempo and different defensive looks should keep this one lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Alabama Jaguars have been pushing the pace to an extreme of late. Six of their last seven games have played to a pace of 72 possessions or faster.

Coastal Carolina is putting people on the line a lot this year, and in general the Chanticleers defense is much worse than it was a year ago. They are giving up 77 points per game in their last four contests. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 95 in the country in getting to the free throw line. In a game that should be close, a bunch of trips to the line with teams in the bonus early could be important in pushing this one past the total. 

In South Alabama's last 9 games against Division One opponents, 7 of them have topped this total. I think they dictate the pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't like taking an under this low, but by my numbers I have to do it. Virginia is the slowest paced team in the country. Georgia Tech is 323rd in tempo out of 351, so they play very slowly too. Last year when these teams met they finished at 111 points, and I think that's a good prediction for this contest too.

Georgia Tech's offense is averaging only 0.959 points per possession in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are actually first in ACC play in defensive efficiency though, allowing only 0.872 points per possession. 

Virginia is first in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year, and they are second in ACC play in that stat. The Cavs are allowing only 0.853 points per possession on the year. 

A very slow paced game where both defenses do a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans are first in the nation in FT/FGA so far this year. They are attacking the rim and then shooting 72.2% from the line. Fullerton is also averaging 72 possessions per game this year. Their pace is much quicker than last year.

UCSB is a different team this year under a new coach as well. This is no longer a team that looks to stall and win low scoring games. UCSB is 58th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are shooting almost 40% from three point range. Fullerton's 3 point defense has been really bad this season.

With a high tempo and plenty of free throws and open looks from three point range, I see this one going past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns and Texas Tech Red Raiders met three times last year. All three games stayed below this posted total. They finished at 120, 124, and 113 points. None were even close to this number. 

These are two excellent defenses. Texas Tech was only 56th in defensive efficiency last year. They are third so far this year. A huge jump. Texas was 21st last year, and they are 7th this season. 

Both teams have slowed their pace down drastically in Big 12 Conference play. Despite playing three fast paced teams in their last four contests, Texas has played 3 of their last 4 games to a final regulation total of 129 points or less. 

This number was bet up on the open to a point where I have to take the under. These defenses are too good for me not to.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming off a rare higher scoring game, but this is a team that has been consistently under this number. In fact, their first five MVC games were all 129 points or lower. Last game, they shot the ball extremely well and they won 81-65. I think that game was the exception rather than the rule. That last game though is giving us value on the number here.

Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago both like to slow the game down. There is no reason this tempo should be quick at all. Neither of these team get many second chance points, and that is a clear help here.

The MVC is a league where points can be tough to come by, and with these two teams sharing a slow-paced style of play, I like the value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights and Cincinnati Bearcats played twice last year. The two games played to 60-50 and 53-49 finals. It was no fluke. There were only 61 possessions in the first game and 60 in the second meeting. 

These are two teams who are much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. They are also both significantly better on defense this year than they were last season. Cincinnati was 15th in points per possession allowed on defense last year and they are third this year in the country. UCF was 18th last year and they are fourth this year. These teams are excellent defensively.

Taylor being out has really hurt the UCF offense. He's doubtful for this game and if he plays he likely will be limited minutes wise. 

While Cincinnati has played some of their games to a slightly quicker pace this year, when they play against teams who have a real chance to beat them (quality teams), the Bearcats slow things down. The tempo should stay slow here.

I don't like taking an under that is this low, but my number here is 115.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers started the year by torching the nets against some bad defenses. LSU has still been good on offense for the year as a whole, but their numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as they were early in the season.

LSU is averaging 1.14 points per possession for the year, but in SEC play they are averaging just 1.00 points per possession. The Tigers defense has gotten better as the season has gone along. 

Georgia is first in the SEC in defensive efficiency at 0.928 points per possession inside SEC play. They rank 25th in the nation in points per possession allowed for the year as a whole. Georgia is using 19.9 seconds of the shot clock on average in SEC play, and the Bulldogs are averaging only 0.947 points per possession.

Georgia should slow the pace of this game, and LSU has played to the pace of their opponent of late. Without better than normal shooting numbers, this one should stay under solidly.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears finished as the slowest paced team in the Big 12 last year. There's a good chance they'll finish as the slowest paced team in the conference again this year. Baylor wants to slow the game down and win with their defense.

Oklahoma State has played quickly so far in Big 12 play, but they have played 3 of the 4 fastest paced teams in the Big 12 during this early conference season. Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Iowa State are going to be forcing the tempo all year. 

Oklahoma State is good at forcing turnovers, and this Baylor backcourt has been careless with the ball. Those turnovers lead to wasted possessions and time burned off the clock.

All five of Baylor's games in the Big 12 this year have stayed under this number in regulation. In fact, four of them have been 130 or lower.

This total is too high for a Baylor game. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The FIU Panthers have decided to speed up noticeably of late. FIU was a slow paced team the past couple years, but they have played six of their last nine games to a tempo of 72 possessions or quicker. I don't think the books have adjusted their numbers enough yet.

UTEP's defense has been downright awful of late. The Miners are allowing 1.113 points per possession in the conference. UTEP has allowed 75, 97, and 73 points to mediocre offenses in their last three games. 

I'll go with the over based on the recent trends of these two.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are playing the Syracuse matchup zone that their coach learned under Jim Boeheim. It is doing a nice job limiting the shooting numbers of their opponents. 

Washington started the season playing very fast, but in recent games they are slowing the tempo a lot. This total doesn't reflect the new slower tempo of the Huskies. 

Stanford has been inconsistent on offense this year, and they tend to play to the pace of their opponent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are 348th in the nation out of 351 teams in tempo. Evansville is great at defending without fouling. They are using more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average on their offensive possessions. 

Drake hasn't played a team in the MVC yet that slows things down the way Evansville does. Drake's relatively higher scoring numbers in the MVC have made this total too high considering who their opponent is in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference is one where there is a lot of good defense played. Bradley ranks 35th in defensive efficiency in the country, but only 242nd in offensive efficiency. 

Loyola Chicago is 77th in defensive efficiency, and they are 325th in overall pace of play as well. The Ramblers are very consistent at slowing the game down. 

I had this one lined at 124 and I see solid value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'll be surprised if Chris Beard lets his Red Raiders get into a track meet with West Virginia. Beard is an excellent coach, and Texas Tech and West Virginia played two games that went into OT last year and both were way under this total in regulation. 

Texas Tech is slowing the pace down on offense quite a bit more in Big 12 play than they were in non-conference action. West Virginia can struggle in halfcourt sets on offense. 

I expect a game where neither team gets many easy looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans haven't played very well in their last couple games. They were blown away by Ohio State and then were fortunate to win in overtime against Rutgers. Expect Tom Izzo's bunch to play much better here. I think that means improved defensive intensity.

Michigan doesn't want any kind of fast paced basketball here. The Wolverines have done a nice job controlling tempo in the past, and they are much better on defense this year than they have been in recent years.

A rivalry game tends to lead to better defensive efforts on the whole.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders defense has been the best in Conference USA for the last few seasons. They should be the best again this year. MTSU is allowing only 0.877 points per possession inside the conference so far. 

Louisiana Tech no longer plays at a really quick pace like they did when current Florida coach Mike White was there. The Bulldogs could only score 61 points at MTSU last year in a 71-61 loss. Both of the teams are very similar to last year's teams, and I don't see a reason for this kind of adjustment on the total. 

MTSU likes to slow the game down and they have slightly less offensive weapons this year with Jacorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw having graduated at the end of last season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the CAA. The Seahawks are also terrible on defense. Wilmington is allowing 1.143 points per possession for the season, which is 339th out of 351 teams in the country. They are allowing teams to shoot a whopping 45% from 3 point range.

Elon's offense has been excellent of late. The Phoenix shoot up a bunch of 3's, and they should get the open looks here. Elon has sped up their tempo since CAA play started up. Elon's defense is worse than a year ago, and UNC Wilmington should get up a bunch of shots here and score a solid amount of points.

The early move down on this total isn't justified.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Offense should be hard to come by in this Missouri Valley Conference showdown. Missouri State is 51st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Evansville is 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Missouri State is 97th in offensive efficiency. Evansville is 213th in offensive efficiency. 

Evansville really slows the pace of the game. They rank 339th in overall tempo. Missouri State isn't much faster at 317th. This one should be played to a pace of around 61 possessions. 

Both teams are better at not fouling than they are at getting to the line. 

In their last 7 games vs. a D 1 opponent, Evansville hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of those games. Missouri State hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of their last six games either. These teams are consistently low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have almost always ended up playing at a slow tempo under Bruce Weber when things get tight. Early in the year, they sometimes run against lesser opponents, but in the Big 12 this has been a team that likes to force games into a half court contest. We're seeing signs of this already this season. 

Oklahoma State has played against a bunch of teams that push the tempo. I believe their numbers are a bit skewed toward the fast side thanks to games against teams like Oklahoma, UT Rio Grande Valley (7th in nation in pace), and West Virginia. The Cowboys are more efficient on defense than offense as well.

I think this total should be in the 144 or 145 area, so I see a significant amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have been great at forcing a slow tempo this year. Since December 1, George Washington has played one game that has gone over this total. That was last game against Rhode Island when the Rams torched the nets for 81 points in a 81-60 win at GW. 

Davidson is playing at a slower tempo this year. They rank 250th in tempo. They were in the top 100 in pace just two years ago. George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. 

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and neither team fouls very much. That's a big bonus in addition to the slow tempo. Barring some very high shooting numbers from long range, this one should stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 293rd in the nation in overall tempo. They set up a zone and slow the game down. Eastern Michigan has been reliant on getting to the line on the offensive end in many years of late. They aren't very good in half court sets. Central Michigan ranks in the top ten in least fouls committed so far this year. 

Central Michigan is 259th in overall tempo this year. The Chippewas were 5th last year. They have obviously undergone a significant tempo change this season. I don't expect to see them force the pace as they did last year against Eastern Michigan. 

This is definitely a rivalry game and on the whole I believe that helps the under as the defenses stay fully engaged most of the times in these matchups.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without their star big man in Jason Carter. They have very little inside presence. Jordan Dartis who averages 13.3 points per game, is questionable in this one. Dartis has a hip injury.

Ball State is also without two players. Jontrell Walker is suspended after being arrested recently. Walker averaged 8 points per game. Zach Gunn is out with an injury and he averages 5.5 points per game. 

Ball State has slowed their tempo down noticeably in the last few games. They are clearly playing slower than last year. Ohio plays a little quicker, but they are far less efficient on offense. 

Neither team is good at getting to the line and both teams don't foul much at all. The injuries here combined with Ball State's slow it down style of late makes me think this one stays below 150.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles are both excellent on the defensive end. Miami is 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Hurricanes are third in effective field goal percentage defense. Florida State is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Miami is playing faster than they were last year, but I still don't see them wanting to have a track meet here. Only four of their games so far this year have been played to a pace of higher than 70 possessions. Their two games against Florida State last year played to a 62 and 57 pace.

Both of these offenses have been inconsistent this year, and they are up against one of the best defenses they have faced yet. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* William & Mary has played 14 games this year. Of those games, 12 of the 14 have gone over this total. The Tribe are first in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage at a whopping 43.9%. The Tribe are fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage. 

William & Mary has been great on offense in the last few years, but their defense has continued to be a problem. It is again this year. They are allowing 1.116 points per possession (318th in the country). 

Drexel wants to run under Coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons have picked up the tempo in CAA play so far. They are third in tempo in CAA action. William & Mary is first. This game should be played at a quick pace.

Drexel is allowing an eye popping 1.233 points per possession in their three CAA games this year. The Dragons allowd 108 points to William & Mary in one of the meetings last year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Niagara Purple Eagles rank 13th in the nation in least time spent per offensive possession. They are shooting it on average after only 14.8 seconds of their possession. This team is flying up and down the floor. Niagara also ranks 98th out of 351 in offensive efficiency. What about defense? They are terrible. They rank 330th out of 351. Niagara is definitely a team that can make games very high scoring.

Marist is shooting it about one full second on average quicker than last year. Marist is 323rd in defensive efficiency, so we have two teams that prefer to play fast here and two teams who are terrible on the defensive end.

A big bonus is the trips to the charity stripe. Marist is 40th out of 351 in the nation in FT per field goal attempted. Niagara is 52nd in the nation in FT/FGA. There should be plenty of free throws here.

I had this number quite a bit higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are an elite defense. They ranked 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 7th so far this season. Temple was 168th in that statistic last year, and they are 117th so far this year.

UCF is expected to be without point guard BJ Taylor again for this one. Taylor is the best scorer on the team. Chance McSpadden is doubtful and he has averaged 6 pts per game this year as well. UCF relies on getting to the line to score, and Temple is good at defending without fouling.

Temple and UCF are both happy to play at a slow tempo. Temple is 268th in overall tempo out of 351 in the country. UCF is 291st. 

This is an early start on a Sunday as well which is a positive for the under in the long run according to the numbers. I think this one stays in the 120's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils are easily first in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging a whopping 1.256 points per possession on offense this season. Duke is playing from inside out this year, and NC State doesn't have the defensive presence in the inside to slow down the Duke frontcourt.

Duke's average possession length is 16th quickest in the country. NC State is 25th in that same statistic. These two teams are both flying up and down the floor.

Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the country in offensive rebounding. 

Look for a very high scoring game here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 7th in average possession length out of 351 teams last year. They were pushing the pace like crazy. This year they rank 297th out of 351 teams. They have slowed things down dramatically. It's hard for the oddsmakers to make numbers on this team's games.

Kent State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent since Rob Senderoff has been there. This is a team that sometimes plays really quick, and sometimes is forced into a low possessions game. They very rarely dictate the pace.

With the tempo I expect in this game, it would take some very high shooting percentages to go over this number. 

Kent State relies on free throws for a lot of their offensive production and Central Michigan is top five in the nation at not fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wofford has an offense that should shred up the Southern Conference. Wofford just shoots the ball so well. Fletcher Magee is shooting 53.4% from 3 point range on the season and he has taken 104 shots from 3 point range. 

The Citadel will probably finish first or second in the nation in overall tempo this year. As high as this number is, Citadel has gone over it in 11 of their 14 games so far this year. Their defense is among the bottom 20 in the nation. 

Wofford and Citadel have played 4 times in the last couple years. The lowest final total was 169 points. The other 3 games all finished at 188 points or higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are going to push the pace all year long. UCLA is 22nd in the nation in average possession length. They are only using half the shot clock on average to put up a shot. UCLA ranks in the top 50 at getting to the line. 

Cal prefers to play fast too, and their defense has been really poor this year. Cal has been giving up a lot of second chance points. Cal ranks 7th in the nation FT attempts per field goal attempted. Expect lots of free throws in this game.

This one should get to 160 or higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders really miss Alec Peters. Peters was their go to guy the last few years, and their offense is struggling without him. Valpo was 139th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 247th so far this year.

Southern Illinois has consistently been a MVC team who slows the pace down. The Salukis are 284th in average possession length so far this year. They also rank 57th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Both of these teams have been wasting a lot of possessions with turnovers of late.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Fordham is 284th in overall tempo this year. Duquesne is 304th in tempo. This should be a very slow paced game. Keith Dambrot has the Dukes playing a much slower pace this year in his first year at the school. The oddsmakers are trying to react to that change, but they aren't quite there yet. 

Both of these teams have very poor jump shooting numbers on the year. The combination of a slow tempo and two poor offenses is great for the under here.

My number here was 127. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a lot of trouble forcing the pace against Virginia. North Carolina has never gotten a matchup against Virginia to a higher tempo than 67 possessions dating back to 2014.

Last year, the two meetings between these two were played at 61 possessions and 55 possessions. Virginia is tremendous at making you play their game. This game is at Virginia, and that helps here.

While North Carolina is playing fast again this year, they are 100th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They rely on second chance points, and Virginia is great on the defensive glass. 

Virginia is only 34th in the nation in offensive efficiency, but they are easily first in defensive efficiency. I see them dictating a lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are similar in that they are both significantly better on defense than offense. 

Georgia is 186th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they are a very impressive 16th in effective field goal percentage defense.  Alabama is 94th on offense in this stat and 47th on defense.

Georgia is playing quite a bit slower this year. The Bulldogs are 267th in overall tempo in the country. Georgia has only had 2 of their 13 games go over this number in regulation this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes are playing nearly six possessions quicker so far this year vs. a year ago. James Madison also ranked 196th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 318th in that same statistic so far this year. 

James Madison has played six of their last seven games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. If this game is played at that tempo, the over has an excellent chance of cashing. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in the last three years in offensive efficiency. So far this year they are 86th, but I think they will improve on offense in league play.

Hofstra's defense is very weak. The Pride prefer to outscore teams in high scoring games, and they should push the pace here once again. Hofstra has only had 5 games stay under this total so far this year. They have had eight games finish at 161 points or higher, so Hofstra is often involved in very high scoring games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Towson Tigers made it clear in the preseason they wanted to play faster this year. Coach Pat Skerry said he wanted his team to have chances in transition. Towson hasn't played much quicker this year, but it is at least partially because of who they have played against. The Tigers have faced a bunch of very slow paced teams. That changes here.

UNC Wilmington ranks 11th in the nation in tempo. That is the fastest paced team Towson has played this year. In their game against Oakland (15th in tempo in the country), Towson lost 97-86 and the pace was a blistering 80 possessions.

Wilmington's defense ranks 322nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Towson should get to the line a bunch against them as well since they foul at a very high rate. Both teams are good at getting second chance points.

Take the over. 

 *3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have decided to play stall ball in their last two games. It has worked really well. I expect to see it again here. In their last two games, Utah is using a remarkable 23.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock to shoot the ball on average. Their win at Oregon saw a mind boggling low pace of just 55 possessions. They followed that up with a low 60 possession game against Oregon State.

Arizona has more talent than Utah, and Utah isn't going to want to get into a high scoring game against the Wildcats here. Arizona is a team that often plays to the pace of their opponent. If Utah is slowing things down even close to the rate they have been in recent games, it will be very hard to get a game above a total in the mid 140's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* South Alabama likes to push the pace, but they are terrible on offensive when it comes to efficiency. South Alabama ranks among the 50 worst teams in the country in turnovers as a percentage of their offensive possessions. They are 313th out of 351 in offensive efficiency overall.

South Alabama's defense ranks 88th best in the nation in defensive efficiency. This team has been getting after it on defense.

Texas State is 267th in offensive efficiency. The Bobcats also rank 345th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. This is a team that does a tremendous job slowing the game down.

South Alabama has had 7 of their 14 games go under this total despite playing quickly. Texas State has seen 8 go under this number and 1 push of their 15 games. 

Good line value here.

Take the under.