Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are the top seed in this region, and they'll play Norfolk State from the MEAC. 

Norfolk State has a long history of not scoring many points in games against high level competition. The MEAC is a very weak league, and when Norfolk State's offense has stepped up in class, the results haven't been good. 

Norfolk State scored just 48 on Xavier earlier this year. They scored only 58 against Wichita State. They scored just 54 against a weak New Mexico defense. Last year they made the NCAA Tournament and scored 54 points on Appalachian State and 55 on Gonzaga (they had just 39 with 5 minutes remaining in that one). They scored only 47 on a good UNC Greensboro defense early last year. 

I don't think Norfolk State is going to score much here. Baylor is a bit shorthanded here, but I think that hurts them more on offense than defense. The question is how many will Baylor score? Baylor is likely to be leading big in this one. The history of these high vs. low seed matchups is the better team lets their foot off the gas enough late in these games that the under has done very well in the last 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this sets up as another game where that can happen.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers push the pace to the extreme. Long Beach ranks 27th in the country in overall tempo. The 49ers defense is 256th in effective field goal percentage defense. They did look pretty good in Big West play defensively, but there are all kinds of really bad offenses in the Big West right now.

BYU ranks 124th overall in tempo, so the Cougars are faster than the average team as well. The Cougars faced some really good defenses on the year. KenPom rates their slate of defenses faced 51st toughest in the country. BYU is up against a much weaker defense here in Long Beach State. Alex Barcello is the leader of a BYU team that shoots the ball really well from 3 point range. Long Beach State ranks 279th in the country in 3 point defense.

BYU ranks 312th in transition defense this year, and Long Beach State gets out in transition early and often. The 49ers should have some success on fastbreaks here. They will use a lot of pressure defense and force turnovers that turn into quick breakaway opportunities.

The over has been a good play early in these smaller postseason tournaments.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes go to Utah to take on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. 

Southern Utah ranks 99th in tempo. They will look to push the pace throughout in this  game. Kent State ranks 245th.

Kent State and Southern Utah are both very good at getting to the line. There should be a lot of points from the charity stripe in this one. Additionally, both of these teams have struggled on the defensive glass. Second chance points should help us quite a bit here.

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morgan State Bears are always going to push the pace. They don't know any other way. Morgan State ranks 14th in the country in pace of play. They are getting out in transition at a very high rate.

Youngstown State ranks 224th in overall tempo. Youngstown State is 322nd in defensive efficiency in the country. The question with Morgan State is always whether they will make enough shots, but against this weak defense I do think they can score enough. 

The two offenses have massive advantages on the boards. Youngstown State ranks 73rd in second chance conversion percentage. The Morgan State defense ranks 279th. Morgan State's offense is 42nd in the nation in second chance conversions. Youngstown State's defense ranks 276th. 

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders rank 97th in overall tempo. There are a lot of teams in the Horizon League that don't like to play quickly, but Wright State gets their chance to run and gun here.

Bryant ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Bulldogs have the leading scorer in the country in Peter Kiss. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the offensive glass. They both rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive rebounding as well. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities throughout this contest. 

The offenses are both better than the defenses in this one. Both teams go to the rim and to the line quite a bit. Neither team has a strong shot blocker.

Expect a fast paced game here. Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Over* Most people would likely guess Gonzaga had the best offense in the country this year. That would be wrong. 

Purdue ranks first in the country in offensive efficiency for the season. Who ranks second? The Iowa Hawkeyes. Here we have a matchup of the top two offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. 

In Big Ten play, the Iowa Hawkeyes actually ranks first in offensive efficiency, and Purdue ranks second. 

Iowa ranks 96th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Purdue ranks 102nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Neither of these teams are very good on that end of the floor. 

Both these teams shoot the ball really well from 3 point range and both defenses struggle defending long range jumpers. 

On the whole, I don't like betting conference tournament unders. This though is a court where scoring has been just fine. Also, the Big Ten Tournament finals have actually been more to the over in the last decade. 

These offenses are just too good.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the Southland Conference Tournament Championship played in Katy, Texas on a neutral floor. The games on this neutral floor have been playing to a much slower pace and have been much lower scoring than the regular season games in the Southland.

Both of these teams do play quickly, and the total should be set pretty high. I do think this total is a few points too high though considering the circumstances. The winner of this game will make the NCAA Tournament. 

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and Akron Zips are bitter rivals. Kent State won two hard fought games between these two in the regular season. 

Those two games finished at 122 and 130 points combined. Shot Quality says based on the quality of shots taken those games should have finished at 122 and 113 points.

These are two good defensive teams and I think both teams will have a hard time finding open looks.

This game is played at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse where the Cavs play. This is a large arena and the under is 36-26 in the last 62 MAC Tournament games played here.

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Creighton just torched the nets against Providence last night. I don't think they will do it again here. They are without star guard Ryan Nembhard, and overall their offense has been clearly worse without him on the floor.

Villanova plays at the 347th fastest tempo out of 358 teams. The Wildcats are very good offensively, but Creighton is the number one defense in the Big East in terms of efficiency.

Both of these teams are elite at defending without fouling. 

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Madison Square Garden postseason neutral site games have been great in the long run. This is a tough shooting backdrop in a huge arena. Another plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars and Creighton Blue Jays met recently and the final was 72-51. Creighton struggled against Ed Cooley's unique mix of man and zone defenses. 

The Blue Jays aren't the same offensive team without Ryan Nemhard. Creighton is much better than people realize on defense though. The Blue Jays are 17th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Providence has had trouble shooting at Madison Square Garden in their last couple trips. They averaged 1 point per possession against a mediocre Butler defense yesterday. They averaged just 0.86 points per possession in their Big East Tournament loss to DePaul last year. 

Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace.

Madison Square Garden has been one of the best under venues in college basketball for many years. The shooting backdrop is tough and this is a massive arena. The under has hit north of 58% in the postseason games here in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met during the regular season twice. One of the games stayed far below this total. One of the games went above this total due to a late foul fest.

Monmouth's defense has been excellent late in the season. The Hawks are really clamping down on the defensive end. They have also slowed their pace down quite a bit. Their game against Niagara was played to only 58 possessions yesterday. 

Rider has been inconsistent on offense this year. The Broncs have improved defensively a lot from last year.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue in the MAAC Tournament the last few seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have been one of the best under teams in the country this year. North Texas again went under the total yesterday thanks to their extremely slow pace and great defense. They slowed that game down so drastically against Rice that the game was just 53 possessions! That's one of the slowest paces of any game this year.

The most recent game between North Texas and LA Tech was 56-49. Last year in the Conference USA Semifinals these two played a game that was 54-48.

LA Tech played a 59-57 game against a much worse defense and faster paced team in W Kentucky yesterday.

The Frisco Center at the Star has proven to be a tremendous under venue through the years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Monmouth Hawks take on the Niagara Eagles tonight in the MAAC Tournament. 

These teams played two regular season games. They were 106 points and then 122 points in regulation. 

These two teams rank 51st and 95th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Niagara ranks 204th in effective field goal percentage offense. Monmouth ranks 274th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Boardwalk Hall has been an exceptional under venue. The unders that have cashed here have cashed by an average of more than 16 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have slowed down their pace a lot in the last couple months. MTSU was pushing the pace in the non conference slate, but they rank 11th out of 14 teams in Conference USA in tempo. Middle Tennessee has really been playing good defense in the conference slate. They rank third in defensive efficiency in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee has seen their last three games go far under this total.

UTEP could only score 59 points the first time these two teams played. Outside of Souley Boum no one scored more than 8 points for the Miners. UTEP is very inconsistent on offense. 

The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Grand Canyon and Sam Houston State played two very low scoring games in the regular season.

Grand Canyon is an elite defense. The strength of their defense is defending the 3 point line. Sam Houston State takes a lot of 3's, but Grand Canyon ranks 4th in the country in 3 point defense. That plays into the hands of the Antelopes. 

Sam Houston State is a very good defense as well. The Bearkats force quite a few turnovers and Grand Canyon has turned it over quite a bit this year. That could lead to quite a few wasted possessions from Grand Canyon.

This is on a neutral floor where scoring is usually down a bit on the average.

The defenses are clearly better than the offenses in this matchup. 

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints take on the Quinnipiac Bobcats on Thursday evening in the MAAC Tournament. 

Siena plays at a slow pace. The Saints rank 243rd in average possession length in the country. Quinnipiac does play quicker at 90th in the country in overall pace. 

Both of the regular season games between these two saw a late foul fest make the final total be much higher than it should have been. 

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The under is 13-5 in MAAC Tournament games played there. The 5 games that have gone over the total here have only gone over by an average of 4.6 points per game. Many of the unders have gone far below the total. The shooting backdrop here at this large venue is clearly a problem.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green play at the slowest pace of any team in the country. They rank #358 out of 358 teams in terms of pace of play. North Texas is extremely well coached by Grant McCasland. The Mean Green are excellent defensively, and they do a great job of taking care of the basketball and winning low scoring games. They force teams to play their style of basketball. 

Rice was blown out by North Texas twice this year. The Owls scored 43 and 44 points in those contests. The Owls have slowed their pace of play down drastically in recent weeks. 

In conference action, N Texas was the slowest team in terms of average possession length, and Rice was the third slowest in Conference USA.

The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morgan State Bears and the South Carolina State Bulldogs meet Thursday night in the MEAC Tournament. 

South Carolina State has improved immensely on the defensive end late in the season. Year over year their defensive improvement has been massive as well. This team was ranked #339 in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They sit at #158 this season. In 8 of South Carolina State's last 9 games the final total has been 142 points or less.

Morgan State averaged 1.06 points per possession in the MEAC last year. They averaged only 0.978 points per possession league play this year. They take a lot of bad jump shots and that has pulled down their efficiency.

Norfolk Scope Arena has been a good under venue. It has seen about 56% of games in the postseason go under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles and Creighton Blue Jays played twice this year and the two games couldn't have been more different. The first game was played at a slow pace and went into double overtime and still finished at only 144 points (116 after regulation). The second game was a fast pace and 165 total points.

Creighton is probably in the NCAA Tournament, but a bad performance here could leave them at least somewhat nervous on Selection Sunday. The Blue Jays would prefer this game be played at a slower pace, and I think they'll work hard to do that in this one. Creighton ranks first in the Big East in defensive efficiency, which likely would surprise a lot of people.

Creighton is 9th in the country in 2 point FG percentage defense. They were first in the Big East. In their most recent matchup, Marquette went an insane 60.4% from 2 point range against them. Creighton allowed just 44.1% in the Big East overall. 

Marquette allowed only 46% on 2 point FG in Big East play, but in their most recent game Creighton shot a lights out 62.9% from 2 point range. 

I don't expect these shooting numbers to show up again. This is at Madison Square Garden where the under has been money over the long term. In fact, in postseason games the under sits at almost exactly 60% at MSG in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Toledo is a great offensive team. The Rockets have put up a lot of points in quite a few MAC games this year. Central Michigan did slow them down at Toledo recently holding them to just 68 points.

The two games between these two in the regular season were 136 and 134 points total. 

There is real blowout potential in this game, and in a conference tournament setting if you are up big many teams will slow things down and rest the legs a bit to be ready for the next day. 

This game is played at the Cleveland Cavs home arena. The under is 35-26 in games here for the MAC Conference Tournament. 

An early tipoff is another bonus in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags and St. Peter's Peacocks meet tonight in the MAAC Tournament. These two teams have a long history of low scoring meetings. 

Here are the last 5 meetings with their combined total and then their expected total based on the quality of shots from Shot Quality in ( ):

112 points (115 points)

105 points (117 points) 

105 points (111 points) 

115 points (112 points) 

99 points (No shot quality data available)

129 points (118 points)

98 points (116 points)

The last six meetings have brought 5 games going under this total and 1 that went over. None of the games have a Shot Quality number higher than this total.

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall which has been a great under venue. These two teams met here last year and the total was 99 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners rely heavily on steals and quick scores since their halfcourt offense isn't very good. 

Old Dominion doesn't turn the ball over very much at all. The Monarchs run a very conservative slow paced offensive attack. 

Old Dominion shot a whopping 47 free throws in the first meeting with UTEP. They rely heavily on free throws. We have seen the officiating crews in general call less fouls in these conference tournament games. ODU will get to the line plenty, but it should be way down from last game.

The first game stayed under this number in regulation even with the massive amount of free throws.

This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Early in the season, Rice was playing at a top 75 tempo in the country. The Owls have slowed down their pace of play drastically late in the season. In the last few weeks, they are playing at a pace slower than the average tempo in the country. 

Charlotte was atrocious on defense earlier this year. They have been much better in recent weeks. The 49ers are coached by a defensive minded coach who wants the team to play slowly.

The first game between these two was 67-64.

This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Butler plays at the 338th fastest pace of any team in the country. They are always very slow paced. The Bulldogs settle for far too many 3 point jumpers, and they are shooting just 29.2% from 3 in the Big East Conference. 

Xavier ranks first in the Big East in defensive rebounding. Butler shouldn't get many second chances here. The Musketeers have relied pretty heavily on getting to the free throw line, but Butler is pretty good at defending without fouling.

These two teams met last year in the first round of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. The final was 70-69 in overtime. At the end of regulation the score was 59-59.

Madison Square Garden is a tremendous under venue in college sports. The under is a whopping 69-45 in postseason games at MSG when the total is set at 127.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two teams stayed below this posted total in regulation. The one finished at 145 with overtime. 

This game tips off at 9:30 am local time. That is an extremely early tipoff. Through the years, college games with very early tipoffs have trended under the total. There have been some worse shooting numbers in these games.

Most teams in the Big Sky are all about playing quickly, but Sacramento State has done a good job slowing things down and dictating the tempo this year. 

An early start and two teams who are inconsistent on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes have been better offensively this year, but John Dunne is a defensive-minded coach at heart. Marist is good at controlling the pace too, and they rank 222nd in the country in tempo.

Quinnipiac likes to play fast, but they rely on the outside shot a lot and Dunne's teams defend beyond the arc well.

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a miserable team. UTSA isn't much better. Two terrible teams playing on a neutral floor in the postseason has been a great under angle in the long run.

Southern Miss ranks about average in tempo. UTSA ranks slightly faster than average. Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in offensive efficiency. They also both rank in the bottom 100 in the country in getting to the free throw line. There will be a lot of mid range and long range jumpers taken in this game.

This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags rank last in the MAAC in overall tempo. Fairfield will slow the pace down in this win or go home game against the Canisius Golden Griffins. 

Fairfield hasn't had a game in their last 5 go over this totals number. Four of the five were 129 or lower. They have been much better defensively at the end of the season. They have also slowed down the tempo even more late in the season.

While Canisius prefers to play quickly, they were slowed down in both meetings against Fairfield. The teams both shot lights out in this game. I don't think it will happen again.

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd still play very fast, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a couple years ago. Marshall is 205th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

FIU was 30th in the nation in tempo two years ago. They were 82nd last year. FIU ranks only 200th in tempo this year. FIU is 274th in offensive efficiency. I believe Jeremy Ballard knew he doesn't have great offensive talent this year so he changed up their style of play.

Both games in the regular season went under this total. 

This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have been one of the top two defenses in the Summit League each of the last four seasons. North Dakota State games have been solid under bets because they provide much better resistance than the majority of teams in this league. Additionally, N Dakota State is good at slowing down the pace of the game.

Oral Roberts and North Dakota State played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 143 and 136 points total. This game will be played at a neutral site where the under has had the edge. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This isn't an easy bet to make. Both of these teams play fast and they have had some very high scoring games. The two games between these teams this year finished at 149 and 173 points.

Why am I betting this? The angles suggest a number this high in conference tournaments with a neutral court are very tough to reach. This arena in Washington DC is 8-2 to the under thus far in postseason play. It is playing as an under venue. 

Just blindly betting postseason neutral court unders of 150 or more is hitting nearly 55% in the last 8 years. 

Charleston plays extremely fast, but they aren't always efficient on offense. They are only mediocre shooters from long range. 

The last game between these two teams featured an epic foul fest late that led to 60 points in the final 10 minutes. That made the game much higher scoring than it should have been.

This one is difficult to bet, but in the long run these spots have been good.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and Albany Great Danes met twice in the regular season.  Those games finished at 123 and 122 total points. Those games should have been even lower according to Shot Quality based on the types of shots taken by both teams. The two games should have finished with 112 and 105 points according to Shot Quality.

This is a postseason contest, and the win or go home mindset usually slows the game down a bit. Both of these teams like to play slowly to begin with.

It's really important to note that neither of these teams gets to the line much at all. Both regular season games featured less than 20 combined free throw attempts.

I expect another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are allowing 1.003 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing 0.912 points per possession at home. Rutgers has a terrific home court advantage and a lot of that comes from their ability to slow teams down and play excellent defense at home.

Penn State won the first matchup 66-49. Shot Quality says based on the shots taken in that game the final should have been 57-56. That was no fluke that the game was extremely low scoring.

Penn State ranks 355th out of 358 teams in the country in tempo on offense. Rutgers ranks 296th in overall tempo in the country. The pace should be extremely slow here.

Neither team fouls much and both teams are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds go to Weber State to take on the Wildcats on Saturday evening. These teams rank 112th and 63rd in the country in tempo, so the pace should be very quick in this one. The first meeting between them was 92-84 Weber State. Shot Quality believes the game should have been 86-77, which is still far above this total.

Weber State ranks 354th in the country in 3 point defense. Southern Utah puts up a lot of 3's and they are shooting 37.6% from 3 in Big Sky Conference play. Southern Utah has scored 79 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games.

Weber State's offense has some big edges in this game. The Wildcats are efficient near the hoop and Southern Utah isn't good defending at the rim. The Wildcats also are good in transition and Southern Utah's transition defense has been a weakness this year. 

An up and down pace should be expected here. Both teams are solid at the line and get to the line quite a bit.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for two teams who have had very disappointing seasons this year. Oregon State was in the Elite 8 last year and now they are 3-26 this season. Unreal. The Beavers defense was #106 in the country last year, but they are an awful #339 out of 358 in the country this year.

Washington excels at getting quick points in transition, especially off steals. They are 7th in quick points off steals according to Haslametrics. Oregon State is 317th at preventing those. Look for a lot of run outs for Washington. The Huskies are elite on the offensive glass, and Oregon State has been terrible on the defensive boards. While Washington isn't very good from 3 point range, they are great near the hoop, and Oregon State has virtually no interior defense.

Oregon State is 7th in the country in second chance percentage, so the Beavers should get a bunch of second chance points on a Washington defense that struggles to rebound out of the zone.

Late season games between two mediocre or poor teams have been good over bets in the last 15 years. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is now 71-38 at Enterprise Arena in the postseason. The MVC tournament has been a bunch of very low scoring games. This is a hockey arena that has tough shooting backdrops. 

Both games in the regular season between these two teams stayed under this total. These two teams both prefer to play slowly, and I think with this game being win or go home it is very likely to be slow as far as the tempo.

Both teams usually shoot the ball pretty well from 3, but we've seen much lower than normal shooting percentages in this arena in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams finished 91-78. This game probably won't finish that high, but I like it to go over the total. 

Rice puts up a lot of shots from long range. The Owls rank 91st in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. The UTSA defense ranks 315th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. What about the closest shots? According to Haslametrics, Rice is 96th in near proximity FG percentage and UTSA is 248th in defense of those shots near the hoop. 

UTSA pushes the pace. The Roadrunners are 102nd in the nation in tempo. They are one of the worst defenses in the country and Rice shouldn't have much trouble scoring against them. UTSA has been good especially in recent weeks with forcing turnovers and turning them into quick points in transition. Rice has struggled with turnovers and their transition defense is very weak.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under*  The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. 

Bradley ranks #1 in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Loyola Chicago ranks #2. There won't be many easy shots in this one. 

Bradley started the season out playing quick, but their tempo slowed in the important games in the MVC. This is a win or go home game and I would expect both teams to slow down and work really hard on defense.

With the history of this tournament and the top two defenses- I have to bet the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC San Diego Tritons put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. UC San Diego is shooting a solid 35% from 3 point range on the season. They also shoot 73.5% from the free throw line. Cal State Bakersfield ranks dead last in the country in free throws attempted. UC San Diego should get to the stripe a lot here.

CSU Bakersfield is aggressive going to the rim on offense. They should have success getting to the rim against a weak UC San Diego defense in the interior. UC San Diego has blocked the 6th fewest shots of any team in the country this season.

This is a late season game between two teams who have little to play for and those have been good for over bettors in the last 15 years. In fact, games between two teams with a 55% win percentage or lower in the month of March with a total of 150 or lower are 531-423 since 2006. That is an impressive 55.7% win rate for the over in a large sample size.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. 

Evansville ranks 357th out of 358 in the country in tempo. The Purple Aces are also 341st in offensive efficiency. Valparaiso is a relatively slow paced team as well. 

Both teams are good on the defensive boards. It will usually be just one shot for the offenses in this game. 

The tough shooting backdrop at this hockey arena and two slow paced weak offenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are a unique team. They like to push the pace and use a full court press to try to create steals and quick scores. The Vikings should have success with that against this Idaho team. Portland State is 21st in quick breakaway points off a steal according to Haslametrics. Idaho is 344th in allowing those steals and scores. 

On the other side, Idaho is a 3 point reliant team. The Portland State Vikings rank dead last (358th) in the country in catch and shoot 3 point defense according to Shot Quality. Idaho ranks 26th in catch and shoot 3 offense. The Vandals also get to the line a lot and shoot 75.8% from the line. Portland State fouls more than anyone else in the Big Sky thanks to their aggressive defense.

These two teams are 343rd and 357th in second chance conversion percentage defense. That means they allow a bunch of second chance points.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. 

These two teams played two times in the regular season. Here are the details of the two matchups

1. Indiana State win 60-57 (Shot Quality says the score should have been 70-66) 

2. Illinois State wins 86-66 (Shot Quality believes the score should have been 54-49)

The tough shooting backdrop and a very high posted total here for a MVC game that is win or go home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Baptist Huskies have been picking their pace up at the end of the season. They were ultra fast in the past couple seasons, but were playing slower earlier this year. Now, Houston Baptist is back to running once again. The Huskies have had 7 straight games finish with at least 145 points scored. In three of those seven games, there have been at least 173 points.

New Orleans gets to the line at the highest clip of any team in the country. They are up against Houston Baptist team that is aggressive and fouls at a very high rate. New Orleans actually shot the ball really poorly from the floor against Houston Baptist in the first meeting, but they got to the line 41 times. They aren't likely to get that many trips here, but it is likely to be a big number.

New Orleans has seen three straight games finish at 163 points or higher. 

A high scoring contest is likely here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders have slowed their pace down quite a bit in recent weeks. MTSU is using about 18.5 seconds per possession on offense in their last five games. That is a big difference from their non-conference pace earlier in the year of about 16.8 seconds per possession. 

MTSU is a pretty good defensive team. The Blue Raiders are 99th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their biggest weaknesses on defense are on the defensive glass and fouling too much. Charlotte isn't a good offensive rebounding team, and the 49ers aren't very good at getting to the line either.

Charlotte ranks 264th in the nation in tempo. The 49ers are an inconsistent team. They do play slowly though, and the first game between these two teams played to just 60 possessions. 

I look for another slow pace and at this high of a number, I have to back the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The USC Trojans slowed the pace down quite a bit when they took on Arizona the first time around. I think they'll try to do the same again. While they weren't able to win in the first meeting, the much slower pace allowed them to stay in touch throughout on the road against a top five opponent.

Arizona ranks 6th in the country in tempo, but the Wildcats are 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. This is an excellent Wildcats defense. They have all kinds of length on the inside and they are shot blocking machines. Koloko is a game changer on the defensive end. USC tries to get the ball inside and they attempt a lot of shots in the paint and in the mid range area. Those shots are unlikely to be open against Arizona. 

Arizona is 131st in the nation in 3 point percentage on offense. USC does have trouble defending the 3 at times, but Arizona's 3 point shooting has been one of their biggest weaknesses as a team this year. 

These teams rank first and second in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Both of these offenses take a lot more 2's than 3's and they should find it tough sledding in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have played nine straight games that have finished with 131 total points or less. That includes a 65-60 win over New Mexico on the road. It also includes a 68-63 overtime loss to Boise State. Fresno State has played 27 games this year. Only four of them have gone over this posted total. The Bulldogs are a double digit favorite here and I think they'll get to play at their pace. Fresno State ranks 356th out of 358 in the country in tempo.

New Mexico has gradually slowed their pace of play during the season. The Lobos were really pushing pace early in the season, but lately they have been playing at only a slightly above average tempo. They played more to the pace of Fresno State in the first matchup. New Mexico has relied on getting to the free throw line a lot, but Fresno State ranks in the top 25% in the country in least fouls committed.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Baptist Huskies played much slower earlier this year. In recent games they have decided to push the pace once again. Houston Baptist has seen their last 6 games all reach at least 145 points total. In fact, three of those six have reached at least 173 points. They are back to playing very high scoring contests.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi actually ranks 2nd in the Southland in tempo. The Islanders are playing very quickly. Their offense isn't always good, but they are up against a Houston Baptist defense that is very weak here.

Both of these teams come up with a lot of steals and quick points in transition. Both teams also do a lot of fouling, so I expect a lot of free points at the charity stripe. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played 8 of their last 9 games over this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams finished 58-56. These are two teams who are better on defense than offense. They also both prefer playing at a slow pace.

Sam Houston State is the slowest paced team in the WAC. The Bearkats have allowed 63 points or less in regulation in five of their last six games. 

Grand Canyon ranks 4th in the nation in 3 point defense. That's important since Sam Houston State likes to put up a lot of shots from long range. 

Both teams have a relatively high turnover percentage so I expect a decent amount of wasted possessions. There won't be too many possessions in the game in general either. The first game was played to a pace of just 61 possessions.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green are amazing at controlling the pace of the game. North Texas is the best team in Conference USA. Their defense is top notch. North Texas is playing at the 358th pace out of 358 teams in the country. There is no one slowing the pace down more than the Mean Green.

In 10 of North Texas' last 11 games the final combined total of points has been 125 points or lower. That includes their first meeting with LA Tech which finished 63-62 and was played to a very slow pace of only 58 possessions. Shot Quality believes that game should have finished at only 121 points.

LA Tech takes a lot of shots from long range, but North Texas ranks 8th in the nation in 3 point defense. The Bulldogs should find it tough going against this Mean Green defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs are an above average offensive team. They have had multiple games in the last few weeks where their offense has been humming. Drake's Shanquan Hemphill missed the first game between these two teams, and he is a big loss.

Southern Illinois was great defensively early in the year, but their defensive numbers have tailed off in recent weeks. The Salukis offense has been excellent in recent games behind Marcus Domask, who has been red hot from the floor.

Neither of these teams turn the ball over much at all. This is a late season game (final regular season game) between two teams who have little to play for. These games have been strong over angles in the past 15 years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charleston Cougars are first in the country in tempo. They will push the pace and they are going to get a lot of second chances on offense. Charleston really crashes the boards well. Charleston got 13 offensive rebounds in the first meeting between these teams.

Drexel has some great 3 point shooters. The Dragons are willing to put it up often from long range, and Charleston has struggled to defend beyond the arc. Drexel made 10/23 from 3 point range in the first meeting between these two teams. 

Drexel has been very good offensively on their home floor. They put up 75 in a loss to Charleston on the road, but I think they'll put up a bigger number here.

There is a chance of overtime or a late foul fest based on the point spread here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers rank second last (357th out of 358) in the country in offensive efficiency. This is an offense that is taking 20 seconds per possession on average so they are very slow, and they are terrible when they shoot it as well. 

In 16 league games, Eastern Illinois has seen their games finish at 119 total points or less in 8 of 16 games. That's just an unheard of amount of extremely low scoring games. Now, they go up against an excellent defense led by shot blocker Johni Broome. Eastern Illinois only scored 50 in the first matchup between these two. They'll likely be around that number again here.

Morehead State plays at a slow pace as well. The Eagles are also coming off an embarrassing defensive performance where SE Missouri State hit 15 three pointers against them. I think their defense will be much more focused here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs are arguably the best team in the NEC when healthy. Bryant is excellent at pushing the pace and dictating the tempo. 

Bryant beat St. Francis earlier this year 85-68 in a game that was played to a very quick pace of 75 possessions. 

St. Francis and Bryant are two very good offensive rebounding teams. That showed itself in the first matchup between these two. St. Francis has 20 offensive boards and Bryant had 14 offensive boards. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 15 in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed on defense. Expect a lot of second chance points in this game.

Bryant is first in the league in FT/FGA so trips to the stripe should come as well. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 55 in the country in "Free throw defense" which simply means their defense is due for some more regression. Both of these teams are above average from the line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack is a very limited team on offense. They have played their last three games against Sacred Heart, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Sacred Heart again. Those are easily the two worst defenses in the NEC. Now, they go to take on an LIU defense that ranks third in the NEC in defensive efficiency. Merrimack ranks 332nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. This is a team that has been shooting the ball really well from 3 point range, but LIU has been top 100 in 3 point defense both last year and this year.

Merrimack was an epic 17/26 from 3 point range in the first meeting between these two. That isn't going to happen again. 

LIU plays very fast, but the Sharks aren't good on offense. In fact, they rank just 253rd in offensive efficiency. LIU will go up against a tricky Merrimack zone defense here that often forces their opponent to slow down their tempo quite a bit. 

Recent high scoring games from Merrimack have given us value on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins have been one of the best under teams in the nation this year. This is a low total, but Jacksonville has been routinely playing games under this low number. In fact, 8 of their last 13 games have stayed under this number in regulation.

The first meeting between these two teams finished 54-51. A total of 105 is pretty extreme, but based on the quality of shots taken in that game, it should have finished at only 112 points even with normalized shooting numbers. 

North Florida puts up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. Jacksonville is easily the best 3 point defense in the Atlantic Sun. Jacksonville is allowing opponents to shoot only 29.7% from 3 point range on the year. 

Jacksonville ranks 354th out of 358 teams in the country in tempo. The Dolphins rank 54th in effective field goal percentage defense.

North Florida is 2nd in the Atlantic Sun in defensive efficiency. They have protected the paint well, and Jacksonville relies on getting into the paint.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies have shot only 29.2% from 3 point range in the Mountain West Conference. Brock Miller's injury has really slowed down this offense from the outside. Utah State is an above average offense, but they aren't elite. 

New Mexico has been slowing their pace down of late. Richard Pitino's Minnesota teams did this often late in the season as well. They would turn their tempo down late in the regular season. The Lobos have struggled with offensive efficiency on the road as well.

The first game between these two was 76-76 before OT. Shot Quality suggests that game saw higher than expected shooting numbers. Both teams have played a bit slower later in the season and I think this total is a little too high considering their recent trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first game between San Diego State and Boise State went to Boise State by a final score of 42-37. That wasn't the halftime score. It was the score at the end of the contest. 

San Diego State ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Aztecs are as good as you'll find on defense. Their athleticism and ability to play defense as a team guide them toward their great numbers.

Boise State ranks 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Broncos are also playing much slower than they did a year ago. They are averaging six possessions less per game in MWC action compared to a year ago. 

San Diego State's halfcourt offense is a major problem. The Aztecs try to get out in transition off steals because they are so bad in the halfcourt, but Boise State is easily the best transition defense in the MWC. 

Two good teams playing each other late in the season has been good for under bettors. This has been the case even more strongly in games with low totals.

The oddsmakers have set this total low, but it still isn't low enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* There are a couple things about this matchup that make me like a lower totals number to go over. 

First, there are 14 teams in Conference USA, and these two teams rank 13th and 14th in fouls committed. They are aggressive on defense, and it leads to their opponent getting to the line a lot. What free throw percentage are these two offenses shooting? UTEP is shooting 79% from the FT line in conference. MTSU is shooting 77.3% from the FT line in conference. Excellent. 

Second, both of these teams are forcing steals and getting out in transition and trying to score quick baskets with those aggressive defenses. According to Haslametrics, UTEP ranks 48th in potential quick points off breakaway steals and MTSU is 49th. 

MTSU is elite at second chance conversion chances as well, and UTEP ranks dead last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Hartford Hawks lost to the Stony Brook Seawolves 88-82 on Saturday. They get a chance to try to exact revenge just one day later on Sunday in this back to back game. Saturday's game finished 88-82. 

Both of these teams have been horrible on the defensive end, especially in recent weeks. On the season, Hartford ranks 333rd out of 358 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. Stony Brook ranks 336th. 

In conference play, these two teams are 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency in the league. On defense, they are 7th and 10th (last). 

These two teams both do a great job taking care of the basketball. There shouldn't be many wasted possessions in this game. Both teams shoot the ball very well from 3 point range.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Long Beach State 49ers have been tremendous defensively inside the Big West. Long Beach ranks first in the Big West in defensive efficiency, and it isn't very close. Long Beach State is giving up only 0.893 points per possession in Big West play. No one else is allowing less than 0.93 points per possession. 

UCSB is always one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Gauchos aren't going to be forced into a fast paced game with Long Beach State. Earlier this year, UCSB slowed things down, but lost 65-58 at Long Beach.

Both of these teams turn the ball over at a pretty high rate, but they are both above average in transition defense. That should mean some wasted possessions that help the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star CBB Saturday BEST Bet* The CS Fullerton Titans are known as a really aggressive team that attacks the hoop and looks to get to the charity stripe. If you are looking to get to the basket and get free throws, CS Northridge is a good team to square off against. Northridge fouls at a very high rate. CS Fullerton got to the line 29 times in the first meeting between these teams. Fullerton shoots a tremendous 77% from the free throw line.

Northridge went 1/12 from 3 point range in the first game. While this isn't a good offensive team, they have been better at home. They are on their home floor here and their shooting numbers should improve some here.

Northridge was stalling early in the season, but their pace has gradually gone up in recent weeks. The Titans also have shown they are willing to foul a bunch late in the game if they are down. That is likely to be the case here.

This number is too low given the pace of this game and trips to the line that should occur. 

*3 Star Play Over* The McNeese State Cowboys and New Orleans Privateers both really push the pace. Both of them are also elite at getting to the free throw line. Both defenses have fouled quite a bit as well. Additionally, the second chance opportunities here should be massive. These are two of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the nation.

Last time these two met it was 84-78 and the game was played to a ridiculously fast pace of 79 possessions. I don't see any reason to expect much change there. These two teams want to run, and both defenses have some major weaknesses.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Alabama Lions rank 128th in tempo in the country. They always look to play quickly, but their offense isn't very good. Fortunately for them, they are up against one of the very worst defenses in the country in Lipscomb. Lipscomb ranks 341st out of 358 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Lipscomb has played 13 games in the Atlantic Sun conference slate so far this year. 12 of those 13 games have gone over this total. Lipscomb gets to the line a lot and knocks down 72% of free throws. North Alabama has committed the most fouls in the conference. Lipscomb should live at the line here.

Both 3 point defenses are bad, and there should be plenty of open looks in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers have a long history of playing an extremely slow pace and trying to keep games very low scoring. They played a bit faster earlier in the season, but they have slowed the pace down again later in the year. In fact, they have played eight straight games that finished with a total number of points of 126 points or less. 

The first meeting between these two was 131 points and Shot Quality says based on the quality of shots taken it should have been 126 points.

Jalen Benjamin is Mt. St. Mary's best offensive player and he is questionable for this game with an injury. He missed last game and is banged up right now. He is the star here. Malik Jefferson is questionable with an injury as well. Without these two, this is an offense that will struggle against nearly everyone.

LIU plays very quickly, but they aren't efficient on offense, and they do play solid defense.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in tempo. Bryant has been banged up for much of the year, but they are healthy now and are really peaking on offense. Bryant has scored 88 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games.

Central Connecticut struggles badly to get defensive rebounds. Bryant is 19th in the country in second chance conversion points according to Haslametrics. Bryant will get a bunch of second chances here. Peter Kiss should have a huge game.

Bryant's defense is due for some regression. The Bulldogs have strong "free throw defense", and they are struggling to force turnovers.

The first game between these two was 156 points and a fast paced contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Austin Peay has completely changed the way they play during the season. The Governors have hit the brakes in the past few weeks. They are slowing the tempo down to a crawl.

Austin Peay ranks with the slowest pace of any team in the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay has seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under this total, including one game that went into double overtime. Austin Peay takes far too many bad shots in the mid range area on the offensive end.

Murray State is 7th in the OVC in tempo. The Racers are much better on defense this year than they were last season. Murray State won 65-53 at Austin Peay. There were just 61 possessions in that contest.

Another slow paced game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Charleston is 1st in the nation in tempo. Pat Kelsey’s team is pushing the pace in a big way. 

James Madison is 34th in average possession length, so they are moving very quickly too. James Madison is also last in the CAA in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.121 points per possession. 

Both of these teams get out in transition a lot, especially after steals. Both of these teams have struggled to get back after turnovers. Plenty of chances for easy points early in the shot clock.

The first meeting between these two was 95-94. Shot Quality says the score should have been 93-84 (177) which is far above this posted total. 

We’ll get plenty of pace here- it will take ugly shooting to keep this one below the number.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams was played to a very slow pace of only 61 possessions. Appalachian State is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers have consistently kept their games very low scoring. They have an excellent 3 point defense and they don't foul very often.

Troy's defense has been excellent this year. The Trojans are allowing opponents to shoot only 31.8% from 3 point range in the conference. That's important since Appalachian State puts up a bunch of long range jumpers.

Neither of these teams have been any good in transition this year. These offenses both rank in the bottom 75 in the country in shot making according to Shot Quality.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgetown Hoyas are terrible on the defensive end. Georgetown is allowing opponents in the Big East to average 1.15 points per possession. Marquette put up 92 points on Georgetown on the road earlier this year.

Marquette is still playing extremely fast. The Golden Eagles are using only 15.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock in an average possession. The Golden Eagles like to attack the basket. That is a recipe for success against a Georgetown team that lacks high end shot blockers. 

Georgetown has shown a little bit more on offense in recent games. They have reached 74 points or more in three of their last five contests. 

The path to success for the offenses here includes a lot of second chance points and these two are bad on the defensive glass.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs and LSU Tigers meet on Wednesday night. LSU has continued to play very quickly. While their defense is still playing very well, it has been regressing toward the mean.

LSU has had amazing "Free throw defense" all year, and that will start to level off. Georgia has excelled at getting to the line and they are shooting 78% in the SEC (best in the conference). 

The Georgia defense is an absolute disaster though. The Bulldogs rank last in the SEC in defensive efficiency. Tom Crean's teams always want to push the pace and are weak on defense.

A quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Carolina Catamounts offense has been awful in recent weeks. Western Carolina has only topped 70 points in one game in their last 12 contests. Even more recently, Western Carolina has averaged 51 points per game in their last three contests. 

Western Carolina is without guard Vonterious Woolbright and he was their best passer. Without him, their 3 point shots have been worse looks. Western Carolina is shooting a miserable 28% from 3 point range in SoCon play. That doesn't stop them from taking a bunch of long range jumpers though. Furman is second in the SoCon in 3 point FG percentage defense.

Furman ranks 1st in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. The Paladins have held 4 of their last 8 opponents to 58 points or less. They held Western Carolina to 50 in their first meeting.

Western Carolina has seen 8 of their last 9 games stay under this total. Furman has seen 7 of their last 9 games stay under this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two finished 47-45. I'm certainly not predicting a game that is that low again. 

Navy has been elite on defense lately. They have allowed 49 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games.

Navy is 335th out of 358 in average possession length. Stalling. American is even slower at 345th out of 358. Very slow pace to this game.

Navy is the better team and they have shown they are willing to let off the gas in a big way if they have the lead late. Neither team fouls very much.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys offense ranks first in the Mountain West in efficiency. Graham Ike is doing some serious work in the low post. New Mexico doesn't have anyone who can slow him down. The Lobos have been beaten badly in the paint throughout the season.

Wyoming ranks 6th in FTA/FGA, so they are living at the line. Wyoming is shooting 75.4% from the free throw line in league play. New Mexico ranks dead last in the Mountain West in defending without fouling. They have been putting teams on the line at an insane rate in recent games. 

New Mexico really pushes the pace. The Lobos aren't likely to want Wyoming to set up their defense here. Wyoming has been weak in transition defense, but they are very good in halfcourt defensive sets. 

New Mexico is a 6 point underdog here. That is a perfect fouling spread if they are down by about that margin late. New Mexico has shown they are willing to foul and extend games as much as anyone this year. If Wyoming is ahead late, the points could pile up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix are offensively challenged in a big way. Green Bay has scored 62 points or less in six of their last seven games. Green Bay relies on getting mid range and close looks. They aren't good at all from long range (27.7% on the season). Milwaukee is easily first in the conference in 2 point field goal percentage defense. They have a lot of height inside that should bother Green Bay a lot.

Milwaukee was without Pat Baldwin Jr. on Friday night in their upset win over Wright State. Baldwin Jr has been dealing with nagging injuries that have slowed him down a lot. Milwaukee has been playing at a much slower pace in recent weeks. The Panthers just slowed down Wright State to a pace of just 63 possessions.

Milwaukee has scored 60 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. 

Both of these teams struggle with turnovers, but the defenses don't turn steals into quick points. There should be plenty of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have a way of making the game ugly and low scoring. Penn State has played six of their last ten Big Ten Conference games to a final total of 119 points or less. This team ranks 354th in average possession length in the country. An extremely slow pace of play.

Minnesota is 313th in tempo, so the Golden Gophers aren't going to be pushing the issue either. Minnesota relies heavily on shooting the 3 pointer. 

Penn State has faced the 2nd toughest slate of opposing offenses this year, so their defensive stats are quite impressive with that considered. Minnesota has faced the 9th toughest slate of opposing offenses.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LSU Tigers have played at a very quick pace all year. They had a bunch of low scoring games earlier in the season. The LSU defense is still good, but their defensive numbers have been regressing a bit of late. There is likely more regression to come. For example, LSU has had great "free throw defense" so far this year. LSU's opponents are shooting only 63.7% from the free throw line on the year. That won't continue the rest of the year.

Mississippi State is a great offensive rebounding team, and LSU has been giving up a ton of second chance points of late.

LSU is able to pick up a lot of easy points off their pressure defense and scoring in transition. The Bulldogs aren't good in transition defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* St. Thomas is all about putting up all kinds of 3 point attempts. North Dakota State is a tremendous 3 point defense. They held St. Thomas to just 53 points in the first meeting between these two teams. 

North Dakota State was a bit shaky defensively earlier this year, but the team who has usually been the best defense in the Summit League has been very good defensively of late. The Bison also prefer a slow pace of play.

St. Thomas is bad defensively, but they want to play extremely slowly. There shouldn't be many possessions in this game. 

This is a lot of points for a low possession game between two teams who don't foul much at all.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors have completely changed their style of play. First year head coach Nate James has really slowed this team down. The offense is being extremely deliberate especially late in the season. Austin Peay ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country in the last month. 

Austin Peay's contests have been extremely low scoring. Their last game was 140 points total against a terrible SE Missouri State defense. Their five previous games were 131 points or lower, and one of those games was a double overtime contest.

Tennessee State has slowed their pace down quite a bit as well. They were 49th in tempo last year and they are 174th this year. 

The first meeting between these two teams was 126 and Shot Quality actually believes based on the quality of shots it should have been 119.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles have slowed their pace down and are trying to win with defense. They lost a heartbreaker 48-47 at Belmont in their last game. Still, they showed they can slow down a really good offense and force the opposition to play their style of basketball. Johni Broome is an elite shot blocker in the paint. 

Murray State won the first meeting between these two and they were able to get a faster paced game. I don't think Morehead State lets it happen here.

The two games last year between these two teams finished at 117 and 122 points. Murray State is actually significantly better on defense this year than they were a year ago.

Look for both teams to struggle to get open shots. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met just a week ago and there 177 points scored. McNeese State ranks 3rd in the nation in overall tempo. They are going to push the pace at every opportunity. They have been mediocre offensively for the year overall, but they are up against the worst defense in the Southland in Northwestern State. The Demons are a bottom five defense in the country.

Northwestern State and McNeese State are both atrocious when it comes to defensive rebounding. Second chance points should come in bunches in this one. Both teams do a lot of fouling as well. There will be transition points off steals as well. Plenty of chances for easy points.

A fast pace all the way.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Texas hasn't played a game that has finished with more than 137 points all year. That says so much about this North Texas team. They play their style of basketball. In fact, in their last 19 games they have only played two games that went over this total. Those games finished at 133 and 134 points. 

North Texas is the better team here and they forced Rice into their extremely slow paced game in the first matchup. I think it is likely they will get their pace of play again here. The Mean Green are elite on defense as well. Rice will find it hard to get clean looks here, and they shouldn't be able to get second chances.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are a tremendous under team. Their full court zone press is actually designed to slow the game down. Merrimack has played their last three games to 122 points or less in regulation. 

Elijah Ford is a key piece of the Wagner offense and he is out with an injury now. Ford put up 20 points in the Wagner win over Merrimack this season. Wagner is still good offensively, but they are clearly weaker without him on the floor.

Wagner has shown the ability to grab a lead and slow the game down. Merrimack isn't usually able to make a push after being down late. Their outside shooting just isn't good enough. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't normally bet unders in the Big Sky very often. I'm going to make an exception here. The last four meetings between Northern Arizona and Montana have finished with 113 points, 120 points, 123 points, and 106 points. 

Northern Arizona ranks 10th in the Big Sky in tempo. The Lumberjacks toyed with playing quicker earlier this year, but they are back to stalling of late. Montana is 7th in pace and the Grizzlies do prefer to play slowly.

Montana is a good defensive team that has been especially strong on defense at home.

Both teams are good on the defensive glass.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Two bottom 10 defenses in the country. These two teams put up 184 points the first time they played. I’m not saying they’ll score 184 here, but I think over 152.5 is too low.

Houston Baptist slowed their tempo down earlier this year- because their defense is so weak. In their last few games it appears they have said screw it- let’s speed back up. 

NW State is #1 in the Southland in offensive efficiency. Houston Baptist has put up 87 and 93 points in their last two games as well. 

Both these teams have a big edge in transition offense and I think we will see some quick steal and scores. 

Houston Baptist is #8 in the nation in most attempts attacking the rim. NW State 355th out of 358 defending the rim. 

Only two of NW State’s last 11 games have gone under this total.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Grand Canyon Antelopes have been far better at home offensively than they have been on the road. Grand Canyon has had some extremely low scoring battles away from home. Their defense is excellent, but the offense can go through some long scoring droughts.

The Utah Valley Wolverines have drastically slowed their tempo down this year, and it has been hard for the oddsmakers to catch up to that tempo change and their improvement on the defensive end.

We've seen this total bet up to a point where I have to play the under here. This projects as a tight lower scoring game between two teams who like to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* It is surprising that UIC has been so bad defensively with Yaklich as their head coach, but the Flames aren't improving defensively. They have two really big weaknesses on defense. First, they are terrible at defending the paint and shots very close to the rim in general. Cleveland State ranks second in the nation in most shots taken near the rim. The Vikings should take advantage of this weakness. Second, UIC is terrible in transition defense. Cleveland State has been in transition on more than 20% of their possessions in league play. They are very good in transition.

UIC is likely going to speed things up especially when they are down in this one. Cleveland State has been giving up quite a few second half points when they are ahead of late.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs and Missouri State Bears met earlier this year and the final was 61-56. That game was played to a slow pace of 64 possessions. Both teams did shoot the ball poorly, but I still believe this is too high of a line. 

Drake's weakness on defense is they foul quite a bit. Missouri State doesn't get to the line much. Drake has been putting up big numbers on offense on weak and faster paced teams in the MVC of late. 

This total is rare in the MVC where defenses usually have the upper hand. In a game with a pace as slow as this one, this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Davidson Wildcats and St. Joe's Hawks meet for the second time this year on Wednesday night. Davidson walloped St. Joe's 90-72 earlier this year. 

Bob McKillop's offense at Davidson this year is elite. They rank 7th in the nation in offensive efficiency. There really is no weakness on this Davidson offense. They can beat you from the outside or on the inside.

St. Joe's puts up a lot of 3's and they are pretty good from long range. Davidson is allowing 37% from 3 point range in league play.

The last four meetings between these two teams have all hit 145 points or more, and this is the best Davidson offense in years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The USF Bulls offense ranks 357th out of 358 teams in the country in shot selection. They rank dead last at 358th in both spacing and shot making. They are taking the fifth most mid range jumpers in the country, and they aren't any good at them. This USF offense is a complete disaster.

Cincinnati ranks 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Bearcats aren't easy for anyone to score on. USF is likely to struggle badly on offense here.

Cincinnati's offense isn't very good either. The USF defense is feisty. The Bulls rank 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Cincinnati has scored 61 points or less in three of their last four games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels always play at a very slow pace. St. Mary's is also excellent on defense this year. In St. Mary's last 22 games, 20 of those games have stayed under this total. Two have gone over and those were only 147 and 142 points. 

Santa Clara is a faster paced team with quite a few higher scoring contests. The first game between these two finished at 138 points.

The website Shot Quality which grades games on the quality of shots taken by each team believed the score in the first game should have finished 62-57. 

St. Mary's and Santa Clara are both great at defending without fouling. They are also both very good on the defensive glass. There shouldn't be many second chance points or trips to the stripe here and that is crucial for an under.

You'll rarely see totals this high for a St. Mary's game.

I'm on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats are a fast paced team, but they are actually better on defense than offense. Arizona ranks 32nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They rank 2nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Arizona's length on the interior makes them virtually impossible to get to the basket against. That should make it really tough on Arizona State. Arizona State is shooting a miserable 28% from 3 point range on the year. They rely heavily on getting to the basket and scoring from close. The Wildcats length is a tough matchup.

Arizona's offense has one clear weakness and that is turning the ball over too much. Kerr Kriisa wastes some possessions for the Wildcats with poor decisions with the basketball. Arizona State can force turnovers, and they also have some very good shot blockers on the interior. 

Arizona has seen 6 of their last 8 games stay under this total. Arizona State has been very low scoring all year. In fact, 13 of their last 14 games have finished with 136 points or less. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams finished at 131 points. That game featured an epic foul fest in the final few minutes. In fact, there were 56 points scored in the final ten minutes of the game. The fact that the score was 38-37 with just under ten minutes left shows what type of game it was before things went crazy in the final few minutes. 

Fairfield and Siena both prefer to play slowly. The pace here should be slow. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 70 in the country at getting to the free throw line. 

Fairfield has seen 7 of their last 12 games finish below this total in regulation. Fairfield has slowed their pace down in recent games. They haven't played a game any faster than 64 possessions in their last four contests.

Siena shoots a very high volume of mid range jumpers, but Fairfield has been excellent at defending mid range jumpers this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores take a bunch of shots from long range, and Valparaiso ranks second worst in the Missouri Valley Conference in 3 point percentage defense. 

Indiana State ranks 1st in the MVC in pace. The Sycamores will push the tempo again in this one. The first meeting between these two finished 75-73 with mediocre shooting numbers.

Indiana State lacks height in the frontcourt and they can't protect the rim. Valpo should get in the paint and convert on quite a few easy looks in this contest.

This number is set so low because MVC totals just aren't very high in general. I think it is too low given the matchup.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons have played 11 games in the Mid American Conference. How many of them have gone over 149 points? All of their 11 games have hit 152 points or more. Bowling Green is pushing the tempo in a big way. They are also giving up 1.141 points per possession defensively. The Falcons allow a bunch of open looks from 3 point range. 

The Northern Illinois Huskies have had some high scoring games and some low scoring games. Northern Illinois lost at home 92-83 against Bowling Green earlier this year. Bowling Green set the pace in that game and there were a bunch of made 3's in that one.

Both teams foul a lot, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a large amount of trips to the charity stripe here.

The line is set at a point where a late foul fest or even an overtime session wouldn't be surprising either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Albany Great Danes have consistently been a very low scoring team. They are very weak on offense and play slowly. They are above average on defense. They also do a good job keeping the pace slow. Their games have stayed very low this season. In fact, 14 of Albany's last 17 games have finished with 127 points or less total. 

Hartford isn't a good defensive team, but they do play very slowly. Hartford has been up and down on the offensive end. 

I think this has a chance to be a very slow paced game. Neither team is efficient at getting to the line and getting many trips from the charity stripe.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first time these two met the final score was 65-57. The pace was extremely slow in that one. I had the under the first time these two met, and I'm on the under again here.

Washington State is an elite defense. The Cougars are 22nd in defensive efficiency and 18th in effective field goal percentage defense. They do a great job contesting every shot.

Cal ranks 12th in the Pac 12 in tempo. Washington State ranks 11th. The pace should be extremely slow again in this one.

Cal's offense has no go to guys. Matt Bradley was their one go to guy last year, but he is gone now. 

Look for a pace of about 60 possessions, and I like this to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams are excellent from 3 point range. Both of these defenses are dreadful when it comes to defending the 3. Northern Colorado is 354th in the country at defending beyond the arc. Northern Arizona is 315th. Offensively, they are 25th and 74th in 3 point percentage offense.

Northern Colorado hasn't had a game in the Big Sky finish with less than 152 points. Northern Arizona does play slower than some of the teams in the Big Sky, but they are very weak defensively. 

Northern Colorado is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Northern Arizona is putting teams on the line a lot and Northern Colorado shoots 71.1% from the line.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are a really good under team. Merrimack uses a zone full court press to slow the game down. Merrimack doesn't give up open shots in the halfcourt. They do have trouble getting defensive rebounds, but St. Francis is only mediocre on the offensive glass.

St. Francis is 10th in the league in offensive efficiency at just 0.931 points per possession. Merrimack is at 0.92 points per possession on the year.

The first game between these two was 62-46. This one will likely be higher than that, but this total is set too high.

Look for a slow paced game with below average shooting numbers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters defense is the best in the Big West. UC Irvine ranks 3rd in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. They also have a very good shot blocker in Austin Johnson.

UC Irvine has been able to control the pace very well in Big West play. They want to play slowly in the halfcourt.

UCSB has slowed their tempo down in the league as well. The Gauchos have had trouble with turnovers this year on offense. They have been strong on defense led by Amadou Sow.

A tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins are terrific at controlling the pace of the game. Jacksonville is 352nd out of 358 teams in the country in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way.

North Alabama is relatively quick, but they are also 343rd out of 358 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Jacksonville isn't much better coming in at 302nd in offensive efficiency.

Jacksonville is elite on the defensive glass. They rank an impressive 7th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

Neither team gets to the line much at all.

Jacksonville has 11 Division One games that have stayed under this total.

Take the under here.