Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* I developed a system I've had my eye on lately where I look to play the under with a large spread and a high total. This one fits the system. 

In the long run, this has been a solid winning system. The large spread is important because it usually takes excessive fouling late in the game out of the picture.

Oklahoma's offensive efficiency has tanked this year, and these two have a history of playing lower than expected games against each other.

Three times these teams met last year, and the highest total was 138 points.

Both teams are much more consistent on defense than offense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks and Florida Gators are both elite defenses. South Carolina ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency. Florida ranks 21st. Both defenses will give the opposing offense a lot of trouble in this contest.

While both offenses play somewhat fast, the two defenses are excellent at slowing down the pace of the game just by how strong they are defensively. 

Last year's game between these two had the game at 64-64 before OT. The defenses are even better this year, and I think this line is a few points too high.

I had this one at 131.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense has been exceptional this year. Baylor ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Combine that with the fact that Baylor ranks 326th in the nation in tempo, and Baylor holds teams to some very low point totals. 

Texas is without two of their best guards (Tevin Mack and Kendal Yancy) and those two will be badly missed against this defense. The Longhorns offense has had trouble getting their act together all year, but this team is playing some very good defense. Texas is 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Look for Baylor to be the team in control in this one. The Bears want to play the game slowly, and they should get their way. I expect them to get out to a lead early and hold Texas to a low number here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks have excelled when it comes to slowing the game down and forcing the opponent to play their style. Monroe isn't any good on offense, and the only chance they have in games is to slow it down and make it sloppy. 

In their last nine games, LA Monroe hasn't had a game go above this posted total in regulation. In fact, only one of those nine games has been above 134 in regulation. Monroe is averaging only 0.878 points per possession inside the Sun Belt, which is easily the worst offensive mark in the league. GA Southern is the number one ranked team in the conference as far as defensive efficiency. 

GA Southern does play faster, but this will be the first team they have played in the conference that wants to slow the pace down. I don't think Monroe will let this be a track meet.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal Poly tried to push the tempo some last year and it didn't work at all for them. The Mustangs are back to stalling again this year. UCSB is always happy to slow things down as well.

So far this year inside the conference, UCSB is averaging a miserable 0.83 points per possession. The Gauchos are very short handed and they have good scoring options other than Vincent. 

Look for this game to be played at a very slow pace. Without some far above average shooting numbers, I think it stays under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Brown Bears are the fastest paced team in the Ivy League. Brown will look to push the tempo all the time in this one. Brown ranks 52nd in the nation in overall tempo. The Bears also allow 1.142 points per possession which is one of the worst marks in the country. Clearly, Brown is a very bad defense.

Penn moves at an average pace on offense, but they have struggled shooting the ball of late. I think their shooting numbers will be a lot better against a team like Brown. 

Last year's meetings finished at 153 and 172 points. They were similar teams last year. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

Santa Clara is great at dictating tempo, and I think they'll do exactly that here. Pepperdine has been slowing down of late in terms of tempo. 

Santa Clara has one of the best defenses in the conference, and they never get to the free throw line. That's a great combination for under bettors. 

I had this number at 131 and I see there is a huge public/sharp split on the numbers here with the sharp bettors taking the under. I'll go that way as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in Arkansas. The Little Rock Trojans play at the slowest pace of any team in the Sun Belt conference. Little Rock is going to slow this game down.

Arkansas State has tended to prefer slowing the game down this year as well, and I don't think they'll force the issue here. Arkansas State is much better on defense than they are on offense. The Red Wolves defense should give the Trojans offense a difficult task in this one.

I think it being a rivalry game helps the under here. The defenses get better in a game that means more, at least in general they do. 

I had this game at 131 points, so I see solid value. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Missouri Tigers both want to run. This game will be played at a ridiculously fast pace. 

Arkansas has been 23rd fastest when it comes to average possession length this year. Missouri is 53rd quickest.

Missouri has decided to play much quicker of late. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 78.2 possessions per game in SEC play. Only three teams in the country have been faster during that time span. 

Both Arkansas and Missouri foul a lot. There should be a ton of trips to the charity stripe here. These two teams don't like each other, and the officials will likely want to have a quick whistle in this contest.

Missouri's offense has gotten a boost from Texas transfer Jordan Barnett being inserted into the lineup. Missouri has consistently pressed and played very fast when down in the second half, and I think they'll be down in the second half here. 

I had this projected at 153-154 points. The tempo should get us there.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have carved out a nice gameplan inside the conference. They have decided to slow things down and use a strong defense to win low scoring contests. It has been working pretty well. 

James Madison has played their last four games at the following possessions (pace): 64, 64, 61, and 59. This one should be slow as well. Elon is playing much slower than last year, and the Phoenix aren't likely to push the pace too much here.

James Madison is the top ranked defense in the conference, and that defense should be tough for Elon to score on here. 

I see a close low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston Cougars are great at controlling the tempo of the game. Here, they play against a very quick team in William & Mary. I'm counting on C of C playing this game on their terms on their home court. 

College of Charleston's home game against William & Mary last year went nearly 20 points under this total. The C of C defense is the best in the conference. William & Mary excels at 3 point shooting, but C of C has the best 3 point defense in the country (opponents shooting only 27%).

This number is several points too high. I had this at 134. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles are much improved this year, and they are playing faster than ever. Florida State ranked 51st out of 351 teams last year in average possession length on offense. This year they rank 15th in that category. North Carolina is 10th.

This game should be an all out track meet. Last year's meeting between these two was 106-90 North Carolina, and that game saw a mind blowing 88 possessions. That is just about NBA pace right there (and the NBA plays more minutes obviously).

North Carolina can take advantage of Florida State's one major weakness. UNC is great on the offensive glass, and FSU is weak when it comes to defensive rebounding. 

I think Florida State's guards can do some damage here though, and I see both teams scoring a bunch.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels have the best offense in the MAAC. Iona is averaging 1.124 points per possession inside the conference. Jordan Washington is arguably the best player in the conference, and he's surrounded by good guards as well. 

Quinnipiac is going to get a bunch of offensive boards in this one. Iona is weak on the defensive glass, and the Bobcats strength is second chance points. 

The tempo shouldn't be a problem here. Iona always wants to run, and Quinnipiac committed to a fast pace this year (a big change from the past), and they have stuck to it.

Iona has scored 87 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games.

I had this one at 162. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have really struggled on offense this year. Evansville lost their two best offensive players from last year, and they are struggling in their half court sets. When the Purple Aces aren't getting to the line, they are in a lot of trouble on offense so far this year. They are averaging only 0.9 points per possession on offense so far this year in the MVC. Evansville is a strong defensive team though, and they definitely look to slow the game down.

Southern Illinois is better on defense than offense as well, and the Salukis have changed their tempo in a big way to where they are a slow paced team this season. 

Both of these teams have been playing a lot of sloppy low scoring games, and I think this projects as yet another one of those. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Portland Pilots have decided to slow things down in a big way during conference play. They are using 20.7 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That is playing stall ball.

St. Mary's is the second slowest paced team in the country next to Virginia. The Gaels are consistently very slow. In fact, they have had only 3 games over 62 possessions all season (in 15 games). 

The tempo will be very slow here, which means the shooting numbers will have to be very high to pass up this kind of total. St. Mary's is excellent on offense, but their offense was less efficient on the road last year, and that trend has continued this season. Portland is a middle of the road offense, and St. Mary's is allowing only 0.96 points per possession. 

I had this one at 128. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have been running and gunning this year. They were slowed down by St. Peter's, who is the slowest paced team in the league, in their last game. I don't think they'll get slowed down by Siena, who typically plays to the pace of their opponent.

Both of these teams are elite offensive rebounding squads. Getting second and third chances on the offensive end can really put points in the scoring column quickly. Both teams should be at the line quite a bit here because of those offensive rebounds as well.

This total has moved down a few points to where it is too low for me to pass up. I had this one at 153-154. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland State Vikings tried to push the tempo a little bit earlier this year, but it just didn't work. This team has been a slow it down team all through the years with Gary Waters as their coach, and they are back to slowing things down again now. 

Cleveland State is using 20.1 seconds of the 30 second shot clock so far in Horizon League play, which shows how much they are stalling. 

UIC is still pushing the pace, but they aren't going as fast as they were early in the year. Dikembe Dixson was their star player, and he went down for the season with an injury a few games ago. Since then, UIC's offensive efficiency has been awful, and their tempo has slowed some.

I had this one at 137.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LaSalle Explorers were playing fast early in the season, but they have slowed down a bit of late. The same goes for Rhode Island, who played their first three games to a tempo of at least 70 possessions. Rhode Island has played to 69 possessions or fewer in their last 9 games though, and the Rams should control the tempo here.

Rhode Island ranks number one in defensive efficiency in the Atlantic Ten. EC Matthews is one of the best individual defenders in the country, and the team as a whole is very good on defense. Opponents are averaging less than 0.9 points per possession on them in the conference.

LaSalle's defense has improved inside the conference as well. I do think Rhode Island will score a solid amount here, but I expect the Rams to pick up a comfortable win because of their defensive intensity.

I had this total at 147 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish play at a slow tempo. They are using a whopping 20.7 seconds of the shot clock in ACC play so far. That's as slow as you will see anyone in the country play. 

Miami doesn't play fast at all either. The Hurricanes rank 310th out of 351 in the country in terms of tempo. Miami also ranks 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency. I'm counting on their defense to slow down the normally very efficient Notre Dame offense.

Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in least fouls committed. Neither team gets to the line very much either. 

With the spread being 2.5 or 3 here, this projects as a very close game where the foul fest can hopefully be avoided late. 

I had this one at 135.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston plays at the slowest pace of any team in the CAA. James Madison plays at the second slowest pace. Tempo won't be an issue here. This game will be played in the halfcourt as both teams walk it up and take their time consistently.

What about the defenses? These are the two best defenses in the CAA. Both teams are going to work really hard to get up shots here. 

Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency as well, which is obviously a nice plus.

3 big factors working for us here

-The pace of the game

-The strength of the defenses

-The inefficiency of the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys have really changed up the way they play with a new coach at the helm this year. Wyoming was always one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and now the Cowboys are the fastest paced team in the Mountain West. In fact, Wyoming is playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country overall (351 teams). 

Utah State isn't playing all that fast, but the Utes have an efficient offense and a subpar defense. Utah State has played two of their last four games over this posted total (one other was just one point short as well), and I believe this game should be a tight high scoring contest.

With the recent move to much more fouling late in the game, a spread sitting at 4.5 or 5 points is a good range where you can look for fouling late. That's an added bonus.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs have changed the way they play under Coach Jeff Rutter. He took over in the middle of the season, and their possessions per game are up by about 10 possessions since then. That's a massive change. We can see it in the scoring in their games. Their last seven games have all finished at 152 points or higher.

Now, they take on an Indiana State team that has typically been one of the faster paced teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. This should be an interesting matchup where both teams look to run. That doesn't happen in the MVC very often, and it is why this posted total is so low.

I had this one at 154 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This one is a numbers play for me. I believe this one should be lined at 147 points. Dayton's offense gets a nice boost here as Charles Cooke is expected back in the lineup. Dayton has been much more willing to run this year, and I think the tempo will be quick in this one. 

UMass is the fastest paced team in the Atlantic 10 by a wide margin so far this year. The Minutemen are using only 15.0 seconds of the shot clock on average this year. UMass' defense has been a major problem of late. They have allowed 89, 86, and 81 points in their last three games. 

I don't expect UMass to shoot a high percentage against the Dayton defense, but the tempo should be fast enough that it won't matter unless they shoot a terrible percentage.

Take the over.  

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Georgia State Panthers are averaging 75.6 possessions per game inside the Sun Belt Conference thus far. They played quickly outside the conference, and now in the conference they have been even faster. 

Troy is a middle of the pack team in terms of tempo, but this Troy offense is light years better than it was last season. Troy averaged 0.972 points per possession last year, but this season so far they are averaging 1.047 points per possession. The Trojans are getting some terrific play from super sophomore Jordon Varnado. 

There are 12 teams in the Sun Belt and these two teams have fouled more than any other teams in the Sun Belt in their first two contests in the league. The tempo should be plenty fast enough, and the trips to the stripe are a big help.

The spread here is 6, so a foul fest late in the game could easily help us out. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The USC Trojans have been terrible on offense of late. They are averaging only 0.958 points per possession in Pac 12 play. They now play what is arguably the best defense in the conference in the Cal Bears. 

Cal is holding opponents to 0.912 points per possession on the season overall. The Bears have a lot of length and athleticism and they'll make most of USC's shots tough ones.

On offense, Cal slows the game down a lot. The Bears rank 250th in the nation overall in pace. Cal is only 156th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Two teams who are much better on defense than offense.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star CBB Sunday Night Showcase* The Virginia Cavaliers have seen one total all year go past this posted number. That was their most recent game against Pittsburgh, where Pittsburgh unexpectedly torched this tremendous defense.

Tony Bennett is one of the best coaches in the country, and he will be all over this defense to improve after last week's poor performance. Virginia allowed 1.28 points per possession in that loss to Pittsburgh, which is totally unheard of for them. I think there will be extra intensity on the defensive end here for Virginia.

Every single Virginia total until that Pittsburgh game finished at 129 or lower so far this year. They are remarkably consistent at keeping the game down. They are actually even better on defense than last year, and they are slightly down on offense. Virginia played slow last year, but they are playing a full 3 possessions slower than that so far this year. 

Wake Forest has slowed down their pace of play some from last year, and I don't think they can force Virginia to run with them. Virginia plays their game regardless of the opponent. See their wins over Florida State, Iowa, and Louisville this year as examples of that.

I had this one at 128. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames are a completely different team without star Dikembe Dixson who is out with a season ending injury. Without him, UIC's offense is stagnant and their tempo has had to slow down. 

UIC was playing at a top 25 tempo with Dixson in the lineup, but without him they are only barely in the top 100. The Flames have severe turnover problems also, so their offense isn't efficient at all now.

Oakland's defense may be the best in the Horizon League. The Golden Grizzlies are holding opponents to just 0.916 points per possession inside the conference. While Oakland still plays quickly, their tempo is definitely down from previous years.

With UIC's star out, I'm taking the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game was postponed yesterday due to the weather. I had a 4 star play on the under then. I'll make another 4 star play here today with the line just a tick higher. 

The Wofford Terriers are always one of the 50 slowest teams in the country. This is a team that always wants to slow the game down. Samford is a much improved team this year. Why are they improved? Their defense is a lot better than it was last year. The Bulldogs aren't giving up those easy baskets that they did last year.Samford is coming off a poor defensive effort last game though, and Coach Scott Padgett was disappointed in their defense last game. I think that means they'll show up with improved effort on that end in this game.

The two meetings last year were 133 and 153 points. The 153 saw very good shooting numbers send it over the total despite a relatively slow tempo. Wofford relies heavily on the 3 ball, and Samford defends beyond the arc very well. I think this total is at least 5 points too high. Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have one of the worst defenses in the country. Tulane is allowing 1.11 points per possession on the year as a whole. Inside the conference, they are giving up an insane 1.21 points per possession. Tulane can't grab a defensive rebound, and they put opponents on the line consistently. Those are both a major problem when going up against Memphis.

Memphis prefers to run, and they'll be able to against a Tulane team that is playing much faster this year. Memphis should have a huge game on the inside with the Lawson brothers doing some major damage in the paint here. 

Memphis puts up a big number and Tulane does enough to stay somewhat close. I think this gets to the mid 150's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels and NC State Wolfpack both want to run as much as possible. With Dennis Smith, NC State is much better in transition than they have been in recent years. This game should be an all out track meet. 

North Carolina isn't the type of team to ever slow a game down, and the Tar Heels have plenty of firepower to put up a big number here. NC State's defense is no better than average. The Wolfpack are averaging 1.13 points per possession on offense, so their offense is tremendous. North Carolina is averaging 1.17 points per possession, and the Tar Heels should get a bunch of second chance points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats have an elite defense every year, and this year is no different. Sean Miller is a tremendous coach, and this Arizona team is playing a lot better in recent weeks. They are still a team that lacks depth, and that's part of the reason why they are playing a much slower tempo so far this year. 

Colorado isn't all that good on offense, but the Buffaloes have been very solid on defense this year. The Buffaloes are a team that generally plays to the pace of their opponent. Arizona is good at controlling tempo, so I think we see a game played in the halfcourt. I expect Colorado to struggle to get open looks here. 

I had this one at 130-131. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs have gotten nearly everyone to play a really low scoring game so far this year. Old Dominion is the perfect under team. They play at the 346th tempo out of 351 teams in the country. They have a terrible offense and a top 12 defense in the nation. They don't foul on defense and don't get to the line much on offense.

Western Kentucky prefers the slower tempo and they played a 60 possession game against St. Mary's earlier this year. That makes me think Old Dominion can slow this one way down. 

I had this game at 116. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* It's rare that you'll see a total of 160 in a game where you don't have two teams that run. Arizona State does play pretty quickly. They rank 67th in overall tempo this year. On the other side, Utah has been slowing down their pace of play in a big way in recent weeks. 

Utah started the season without forward David Collette, who is arguably the team's best player. The Utes have slowed down and worked it inside more since he has been back on the court. 

While Arizona State has been poor on defense this year, Utah ranks third in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. 

Like Utah, Colorado is a defensive minded team and their game against Arizona State finished 78-77. That game featured above normal shooting from both teams as well.

This one is just set too high to pass up. I see the proper total being about 154. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Furman Paladins and Chattanooga Mocs are very similar to what they were last year. These two teams met last year and the final totals were 116 and 125 points. 

Both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. The Mocs are the 9 point favorite here, and I do expect them to win. Chattanooga has shown multiple times this year that they do a good job of slowing things down when they have a lead late in the game.

Furman's defense is quite a bit better than last year, and Chattanooga is probably the best defensive team in the SoCon. 

I had this total at 132 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds have the worst defense in the Big Sky Conference. This is a conference where almost no one plays defense, so being the worst defense there is really hard to do. Southern Utah fouls as much as any team in the country. Southern Utah has shown over and over that if they are down late in the game they will foul down 10 or 15 and keep things going as long as possible. That's a big benefit when they are a 10 point underdog.

North Dakota loves to play fast, and Southern Utah will want to run as well. The pace here won't be an issue. With a lot of free throws and the pace, I'll take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers play a zone that slows the game down considerably. Coastal Carolina is in their first year in the Sun Belt Conference. I expect most teams to take some time to get accustomed to this unique zone. It also should be a little tricky for teams to travel all the way to Conway, South Carolina without coming out with a flat effort.

Arkansas State plays at a very slow pace for the year, and the Red Wolves are excellent on defense. Arkansas State tested themselves with a really tough non-conference schedule, and now they are dominating defensively inside the Sun Belt. I do think Coastal will have a hard time consistently scoring on them as well.

This should stay in the 130's. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pepperdine Waves have played a really tough schedule so far this season. Pepperdine has been torched defensively by some tremendous offenses. Gonzaga and USC scored 93 and 90 points respectively.

Pepperdine's defense isn't good, but I don't think it is as bad as their numbers look so far this year. The Waves get a chance to go against arguably the weakest offense in the West Coast Conference here also, so that's a nice break.

San Diego is dead last in offensive efficiency in the WCC so far this year. The Toreros have almost no inside game, and that makes it tough to score consistently. San Diego will slow the pace of the game though, and with a total this high, that's important.

I had this one at 138, and I like this as a good under spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles are playing at the 15th quickest tempo in the nation when looking at their average possession length on offense. Virginia Tech is 47th quickest. There should be a really fast tempo for this one. 

Both of these teams get to the line a lot, and they both shoot 70.6% from the charity stripe. Both VA Tech and FSU are playing quicker on offense than they did last year, and the two meetings between these two last year were 156 points and 181 points.

I think we see 76 possessions or so, and that makes me like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Illinois State Redbirds and Indiana State Sycamores are similar in that they are much more efficient on defense than offense. These two will both rank near the top in the Missouri Valley Conference when it comes to defensive efficiency. 

Last year, these two teams met 3 times, with the final totals being 142, 128, and 122 points. Both teams are playing slower so far this year, and normally the tempo of the game slows down in conference action. 

The two defenses should have the upper hand and make every shot difficult throughout in this contest.

Barring a better shooting afternoon from both teams, I think this game stays at about 130 points or even a little lower. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats rank 34th in the nation in overall tempo. Manhattan ranks 63rd (out of 351). Both teams certainly prefer to play fast, and this one should be played in transition throughout.

Quinnipiac has an odd strategy where they crash the offensive boards so much that if the defense gets the rebound, they can get a quick bucket in transition quite a few times. Manhattan commits the second most fouls of any team in the country, so Quinnipiac should live at the line in this one.

Manhattan has given up some huge point totals this year, and Quinnipiac has been consistently putting up big numbers at home. The Bobcats defense isn't any good either though, and Manhattan should score plenty here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Santa Clara Broncos rank 343rd in the country (out of 351 teams) in terms of tempo. Santa Clara is slowing things down and slowing their opponent down on the defensive end as well.

Santa Clara is putting up a bunch of three pointers on the season. They are shooting 35.9% from 3 point range. One thing that does is it really limits the amount of trips to the free throw line they receive. The Broncos are 347th in free throws attempted in the country, so they are almost never getting to the line.

Portland has decided to change the way they play. The Pilots started the year by running and gunning, but they have backed off on the tempo front in a big way. Portland has averaged 63 possessions per game in regulation in their last five games. I don't think they'll push the pace here either.

Both of these teams take a lot of 3's, so if they are red hot from long range this one will lose, but I have to take my chances when these two teams play this slowly and the number is five points off my total of 131 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pacific Tigers have decided they need to slow their tempo down as the season has moved along. The team doesn't have enough weapons to play the fast style that Damon Stoudamire wants to play just yet. Stoudamire has decided to work the shot clock with this team and look to win lower scoring games.

San Diego has always wanted to play low scoring contests the last few years. The Toreros are more competitive this year, but they still play slowly. 

In their two WCC games, San Diego is on average using up 20.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock. Pacific is using 18.2 seconds of the clock (that includes a game against Gonzaga). 

I had this number at 132. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers have played a lot of high scoring games this year, but I believe that is deceptive. Memphis has played against a bunch of teams that love to run. Memphis played against Oklahoma, Iowa, Savannah State, and UT Rio Grande Valley. Those teams all love to run. That has pushed Memphis' pace numbers and scoring numbers much higher than they should be.

Look at Memphis' tempo in their last two games against SMU and South Carolina, two teams who like to slow the game down. Memphis played to an average of only 63 possessions in those games.

UConn will slow the game down and their strong defense should get Memphis' offense trouble. The Huskies offense is a mess, and they aren't efficient at all.

Of UConn's 12 games against Division 1 opponents, only 3 of them have gone over this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are playing much quicker in their last few games. Marvin Menzies has talked quite a bit recently about wanting to win games in transition. They did exactly that against Wyoming in their last game. I expect them to try to do the same here. 

Boise State is averaging 71.1 possessions per game, so they like to move quickly as well. The Broncos also get to the line a lot and send their opponents to the charity stripe at a very high rate. UNLV is a team that ranks in the top 25% in the country in trips to the line, so I expect a lot of free throw attempts for the Rebels.

This is a game that I expect to get to at least 150 points with both offenses moving at a quick pace.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play SMASHER* The Washington State Cougars prefer to run, but they have shown on multiple occasions this year that they can be slowed down. New Orleans, Idaho, Santa Clara, and Sacramento State have all slowed the tempo down against them in recent weeks.

Oregon State is expected to be without Tres Tinkle again in this one. Oregon State recently changed the way they play. Coach Wayne Tinkle said he wants the team to play like they did two years ago. They are playing a zone defense and slowing things down drastically on offense. 

Oregon State's game against very fast USC was only 133 points. Their game against the elite offense of UCLA only finished at 139 points. 

Go back to two years ago when Oregon State was playing the way they are now. The two meetings between these two teams in that year finished at 109 points (only 57 possessions) and 105 points (only 59 possessions). 

I had this number at 127 and I believe this will be yet another really ugly low scoring game between these two teams.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TAKEDOWN* The SMU Mustangs are great at controlling the pace of the game. SMU has played four straight games at a pace of 62 possessions or less.

Both SMU and Temple are more efficient on defense than offense. These are two teams who play very good halfcourt defense. I expect both offenses to have to work hard to get shots, and that will take quite a bit of time off the clock each time.

Both of these teams are excellent at defending without fouling, which is obviously important for an under bet.

In SMU's last 8 games, they have held each of their opponents to 60 points or less. That's an impressive number, and I think it has a good chance of continuing here.

My total for this one was 127 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies like to push the tempo. Virginia Tech has some very good guards, and they'll be happy to run with NC State in this one. 

NC State is playing much faster this year, and it is almost all because of Dennis Smith. Smith is a tremendous freshman who you will be hearing a bunch about over the years. He has elite quickness and his shot is improving. NC State has played three of their last five games at a pace of 80 possessions or quicker. Virginia Tech has played each of their last four games at a pace of 71 possessions or faster. 

Both of these teams are much more efficient on offense than defense relative to the average as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavs have played 13 games this year. The highest final total in a Virginia game so far this year was 129 points. That's truly remarkable. Virginia turns every game into a low scoring game with their tempo (slowest in the country) and their defense (number 2 in the nation in defensive efficiency). 

Pittsburgh has been playing to the pace of their opponent this year. Kevin Stallings' teams have done that for many years at Vanderbilt, and they are at it again this year. Pittsburgh has played a bunch of fast paced teams this year, but they will get slowed down here.

Pittsburgh relies a lot on free throw attempts for their offense, but Virginia does a great job defending without fouling.

Look for a tight game and one that stays around 120 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs are playing much faster now than they did early in the year. They got a new coach six games ago. Drake's average tempo before that game ranked among the 30 slowest teams in the country. In the six games since the change, they rank among the 30 fastest teams in the country. It's a huge change and the oddsmakers haven't caught up to this change quite yet.

Wichita State is playing much faster than they did a year ago. The Shockers are averaging 3 more possessions than last year. Additionally, Wichita State was first in the nation in defensive efficiency last year, and this year they have dropped to 29th. What about on offense? Wichita State is actually better this year. They were 67th on offense last year and 34th this year.

Drake will push the pace and Wichita State will torch this terrible Drake defense. I'll be surprised if Wichita State doesn't score at least 90 points. 

I had this one at 153 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Butler/Villanova CASH* The Butler Bulldogs host Villanova in a huge Big East clash. Villanova probably isn't getting the national headlines that they should be at this point. While all the talk is about the young stars at Kentucky, Kansas, and UCLA, all Villanova does is keep winning games. These are the defending champs, and they won't be easy to unseat. 

Villanova once again has a tremendous defense, and they are once again slowing the tempo down and limiting turnovers. Villanova is actually playing 1.3 possessions per game slower than last year. Their offensive efficiency is down just a tick without Arcidiacano. 

Butler is playing one possession slower as well. The Bulldogs were 97th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 39th in that category this year. 

Last year's meeting at Hinkle Field House was a 55-50 defensive battle. This one won't be that low, but this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The UCF Knights are playing some tremendous defense under new coach Johnny Dawkins this year. UCF ranks first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Tacko Fall is 7'6 and he stands in the middle of the zone on defense, which obviously makes this a hard team to get to the hoop against. UCF is allowing opponents to shoot only 36.3% on two point field goals. That is easily best in the country. 

East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient at all this year. The Pirates are averaging only 0.944 points per possession on the year (1.02 last year). East Carolina scored only 35 points in a home loss to College of Charleston a couple weeks ago. They scored only 44 points in their last game against SMU. East Carolina should have a lot of trouble scoring here.

East Carolina's defense is 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, so they are very good as well. 

Both of these teams rely on free throws a lot on offense, but these two teams rank in the top ten in the country in defending without fouling.

Both of these teams play slow and I expect a tempo of somewhere around 63 or 64 possessions. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels played a little slower in the non-conference slate, but I fully expect them to go back to their fast paced ways inside the MAAC. Fairfield is now running and gunning all the time. Fairfield has played to an average of 75 possessions in their last five games. Who is going to slow this game down?

The only way this one stays under is some bad shooting numbers. Iona's offense is probably the best in the conference, and the Gaels are never very good on defense. 

Last year's two meetings between these teams finished at 178 and 189 points. This might not be that high, but I think it will be 160 or higher. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The College of Charleston Cougars and Delaware Blue Hens have the same goal. They both want to win a low scoring game with their strong defense. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in pace. I expect less than 60 possessions in this game, which would put it as one of the slowest games of the week in college basketball.

Charleston and Delaware both rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency. Delaware is in the bottom 25 in the country. Charleston is a top 15 defense in the nation, so it is hard to imagine Delaware scoring much here. 

Delaware has scored 59, 53, 63, and 56 points in their last four games. This will be the best defense they have faced this year.

Look for a very low scoring game here. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been picking up the pace of late. For the year, Cincinnati is playing almost a possession faster than last year, but the real change has been in the last few games. 

A closer look at the last few games tells of the tempo change though. Cincinnati is averaging 65.6 possessions on the year, but in their last 4 games there has been an average of 75.3 possessions in regulation. The Bearcats have put up more than 90 points in 3 of those 4 games.

Last year, Tulane was more of a slow it down team. With a new coach now, they are playing faster. Tulane also gave up 1.00 points per possession on defense last year (a solid mark). This year they are allowing almost 1.10 points per possession (terrible). 

Cincinnati has been piling up the points against bad defenses, and this is one of the worst they will see this year. Cincinnati scored 97 on Tulane last year, and I see them getting to 85 or higher here. This total is several points too low.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Morehead State Eagles got rid of Sean Woods in the middle of the season. Preston Spradlin is the interim coach there now. Spradlin seems to be asking this Morehead State team to push the tempo much more than Woods was before he left.

Morehead State is playing at an average pace of 80.75 possessions since Spradlin took over. They won't average that fast overall for the year, but I do think they are going to be one of the fastest teams in the country. The Eagles also don't play any defense. They are 344th out of 351 teams in effective field goal percentage defense.

Tennessee Martin ranks in the top 100 in tempo, and the Skyhawks also rank in the bottom 50 in defensive efficiency. 

Both Martin and Morehead are great offensive rebounding teams, which is a clear positive for the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This number has been bet up to a point where I see value on the under. Both of these teams play a slow it down style of play, and it will take some good shooting numbers to get this one over the total. 

Eastern Illinois is getting at turning a game into a sloppy contest with their good defense and poor offense. With them being the home team, I think they dictate the pace and style of play here.

My number for this one was 139. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels have picked up the pace of late. In their last game against Colorado State, UNLV pushed the tempo to where Colorado State played their single fastest paced game of the season. UNLV certainly has the athletes to run, and they should continue to play quickly.

Wyoming has been one of the biggest tempo changers from last year to this year. Allen Edwards has taken over and this team is playing a whopping 10 possessions per game faster than it did last season. The Cowboys are great at getting to the line, and they shoot 77% from the stripe. 

UNLV and Wyoming have rarely gotten opponents who want to play as fast as them, but this is one of those times. It should be a track meet in Las Vegas.

I had this lined at 156 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams have a tremendous defense, and they should be too much for a St. Louis team that is expected to play without star Jermaine Bishop again in this one.

St. Louis is slowing the game down as much as possible now. Travis Ford realizes his team just isn't good enough to win high scoring games. The Billikens are playing a zone and using up the shot clock on offense.

Rhode Island is without key inside presence Hassan Martin, which makes them less able to take advantage of St. Louis' interior defense. 

The Rams have slowed their tempo down drastically in recent games.

St. Louis has scored 55 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. I think they will score about 50 in this one.

Rhode Island has seen 4 of their last 6 games stay under this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Hawaiian Late Night CASH* The Hawaii Warriors are a totally different team this year. They lost all of their top players from a year ago. Hawaii ranked 66th in the nation in tempo last year. This year they rank 300th in tempo. It's been a major slowdown for the team, because they don't have enough offensive firepower.

Delaware State makes a very rare trip to Hawaii. The Hornets have played an extremely tough schedule so far this year. Delaware State's average possession length ranks among the 15 slowest teams in the country. Look for the Hornets to use up the clock throughout this game.

Both teams rank among the 30 least efficient offenses in the country. I expect some poor shooting numbers in this contest.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels and Loyola Marymount Lions met three times last year. The final totals in those games were 121, 130, and 108 points. 

Look at the differences in the two teams from last year to this year. Both teams are playing about two possessions slower on average, which is obviously a positive for the under. Additionally, both teams are quite a bit better as far as their defensive efficiency this year.

St. Mary's is among the best teams in the country at slowing the pace down and getting the style of play they want. Marymount isn't going to turn this into a fast paced game either. 

The push higher here gives me too much value to pass up the under. I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The steam has come in on the over in this game, and I'll fade that steam and play the under. Portland and Pacific both started the year looking to push the tempo, but both of them have changed their style of play drastically in recent weeks. Their slowest paced games have all come in the last few contests.

Pacific just doesn't have enough scoring options to win too often in a shootout, and Damon Stoudamire figured that out and slowed things down. Terry Porter's Portland team played a bunch of ultra fast paced teams early in the year and that has skewed their overall pace profile. 

I have this game at 65 possessions, which means both teams would have to shoot the ball really well for this to go over. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Texas A&M in their SEC opener. Texas A&M is a much different team than they were last year. The Aggies ranked 224th in the country in terms of tempo last year. They rank 339th in terms of tempo this season. They are averaging about 4 possessions per game less than last year.

Texas A&M will work hard to slow the game down here, and Tennessee generally plays to the pace of their opponent. Texas A&M is great at defending without fouling and that limits Tennessee's best source of offense. The Volunteers generally live at the line.

I see this total as being several points too high. I'll limit this to a 4 star play instead of a 5 star top rated play because both teams are good on the offensive glass, but I do like the value on this under quite a bit. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are pushing the tempo consistently this year. Quinnipiac is looking to get out in transition at every chance, and they are crashing the offensive boards relentlessly as always. The problem with this strategy is they send everyone after the offensive board, and when the opponent gets the defensive rebound they get a run out chance.

Brown plays very fast as well, and the Bears have trouble getting defensive rebounds. Quinnipiac will get a lot of second chance opportunities here, and they will also give up a lot of transition buckets. Both are obviously good for the over.

I see an extremely quick tempo and I had this one lined at 169 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Colorado State Rams were 55th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 196th in offensive efficiency this year. Colorado State was 274th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 103rd in defensive efficiency this year.

The Rams are clearly a lower scoring team all the way around, and they play a UNLV team that appears to be playing to the pace and the style of their opponent in most games. Colorado State is a slightly below average paced team, and I think this game will be played at their tempo.

UNLV is doing a good job of defending without fouling this year, and Colorado State relies on trips to the free throw line to score more than almost anyone in the country. Colorado State's effective field goal percentage is 310th in the nation. 

UNLV is 221st in the nation in offensive efficiency and I don't see them having much success here.

These teams would have to shoot a considerably better percentage than normal to push this one over the total. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers were 44th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 267th in the same category this year. Northern Iowa still has the very slow tempo and strong defense, but they aren't good on offense now. That makes them a good team to look for unders with.

Missouri State has played a weak schedule so far this year, and I think they will struggle to score at Northern Iowa. On the other hand, Missouri State's defense has improved by leaps and bounds from last year. 

Both teams are excellent at defending without fouling. I see this being a tight low scoring game all the way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack are pushing the tempo in a big way with Dennis Smith at point guard for them this year. Smith is heating up from downtown, and he has been great at getting to the line this year (he shoots 80% on free throws). The Wolfpack have scored 97, 99 and 89 points in their last three games. I think they'll put up another big total here. 

Rider is working hard to speed the game up this year. The Broncs rank 40th in the nation in tempo. Rider isn't likely to change their style of play for this game. While Rider looks good on defense on paper, they haven't played a top 125 team so far this year. NC State should carve up this defense.

NC State isn't nearly as good on defense as they are on offense. The tempo here should be quick enough that a push to 160 points is likely. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates weren't all that good on offense last year, but they are a lot worse so far this year. They are taking a lot of bad shots and turning it over way too much. On the other hand, this E. Carolina team is very good defensively. The Pirates were 239th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 12th in the nation in that same category this year. 

USF is without two of their best players for this game. The Bulls only scores 61 against Elon, 62 against Florida Atlantic, and 48 points against Northern Illinois. This is the best defense they have played so far.

The two regular season games between these two teams last year were 69-52 and 52-39. Another low scoring one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers have played at a quick pace so far this year, but I believe that has more to do with who they have played against than anything else. Memphis has played 9 of their 12 games this year against teams who rank in the top 1/4 of the country in overall pace. 

Memphis was slowed down by Providence and UAB, and SMU plays at a slower pace than either of those two teams. I think the fact that Memphis has played in a lot of high scoring games this year is giving us a few extra points in line value here.

SMU ranks 334th out of 351 teams in the nation in tempo. The Mustangs don't stray from their style of play for anyone, and that won't change here. SMU has played only two games on the road this year, and their shooting percentage was much lower in those games than the rest of their games on the season. 

This number should be in the 133 or 134 area. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have dramatically slowed their tempo in the last few games. Early in the season they were averaging about 75 possessions per game. In their last four games, they are averaging 69 possessions per game. That's a big difference, and it is why they have played some low scoring games of late.

Rutgers has a new coach who is doing a great job, and he has the team playing defense. Rutgers was 282nd out of 351 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 18th so far this year! Quite the turnaround. 

Rutgers is playing at about 65 or 66 possessions per game of late, and I think this game should be around the 67 or 68 possessions mark. Both teams would need to shoot it better than their season averages to get to this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Idaho Vandals offense is about as bad as you'll find. Idaho has twice scored less than 50 points in a game this year, and now they are going up against the best defense they have played this year. I expect Idaho to have a very low point total in this one. The Vandals play a unique defense that slows the game down, and Stanford will be happy to play at a slow pace.

The Cardinal rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the nation. They rank 192nd in offensive efficiency. Idaho is 160th in defensive efficiency and 266th in offensive efficiency. 

Stanford was blown out by SMU in their last game and I imagine they have a bad taste in their mouth from that one. I think that shows up with a strong effort on the defensive end. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Red Hot CASH* The UT Arlington Mavericks have changed the way they play this year. UT Arlington ranked 22nd in average possession length on offense last year, so they were running and gunning. This year they are 171st in the country in that same metric. They are playing at an average pace on offense. 

Importantly, UT Arlington is very good on defense this year. They rank 60th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are slowing down the opponent a lot with strong man defense. 

Loyola Marymount has been slowing everyone down of late. They made two extremely fast paced teams in Portland State and Cal State Northridge slow down drastically in recent weeks. That shows me a lot. Loyola is great at dictating the pace, and they are the slower paced team here. Since UT Arlington has played slower games of late though, I expect them to be fine with the slower tempo.

Expect the slower pace to rule the day here.

I have this game at 134 points. That gives us plenty of value here. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rider Broncs have decided to play a much faster tempo. They were #261 in average length of possession last year. So far this year, they are #57 in the country. The Broncs have had at least 77 possessions in four of their last six games. If you are playing games at 77 possessions, you are playing at a blazing fast tempo.

UMass is always glad to run. The Minutemen have already had four games played at a pace of 78 possessions or faster this year. I think this will be their fifth. 

Both Umass and Rider have had some trouble shooting the ball, and that is what keeps this from being a bigger play, but I have to make a play on a game when a total is in the mid 140's and I expect a tempo of 79 possessions. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Florida Bulls are without arguably their two best offensive players. Jahmal McMurray was their best player, and he has decided to quit the team, so that is a huge hit for them especially on offense. Troy Holston is out with an injury and he was taking 21% of the team's shots.South Florida scored only 48 points last game when both of these guys were out of the lineup. 

Delaware can't win without making the game sloppy and keeping it low scoring. The Blue Hens rank 315th in the nation in offensive efficiency. South Florida ranks 313th in offensive efficiency. Basically, this should be a really ugly game that would be no fun to watch, but I do see value in betting the under in this one. 

I had this total at 125 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters definitely burned me when I played an under with them yesterday, but I'm going back again today. Yesterday's game was their highest scoring of the season by a large margin. Akron canned 15 three pointers in that game. They aren't playing a good offensive team today, and the total is posted higher because of yesterday's high score, which I believe is an aberration. 

UC Irvine's average length of possession is 313th out of 351 in terms of pace. They definitely slow the game down. Their offense is weak while generally their defense is good. UTEP ranks 231st in possession length. 

The tempo should be slow here and barring some high shooting marks, I like this one to stay under. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are playing without Yuta Watanabe. He averaged 16.75 points per game in the games he played so far this year. Offensively, the team is definitely weaker without him. George Washington now takes on the best defense they have faced this year.

Miami ranks fourth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Hurricanes have a lot of length all over the floor, and they contest most shots very well. The Hurricanes last 7 games have all finished under this posted total. 

George Washington and Miami both like to play at a slow tempo. I think that will continue here. I also like that both teams are near the top of the charts in playing defense without fouling. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Oregon State Beavers are changing up the way they play. Oregon State is looking to stall the game out as much as possible. Oregon State Coach Wayne Tinkle recent said as much. The team just doesn't have enough ball handling and offensive firepower not to get into fast paced games that are high scoring.

Oregon State could play faster last year with Gary Payton Jr., but things are much different now.

Oregon State played a 58 possession game against Portland in their last game. Why is that important? Portland pushes the pace a lot more than Kent State does, and yet Oregon State slowed that game down to a 53-45 final.

I think there is a lot of value here while the oddsmakers adjust to this new style of play for Oregon State.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The South Carolina Gamecocks rank third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have proven multiple times how good they are on defense. They allowed only 69 points in an overtime game against fast paced Monmouth. They allowed only 46 points against a very good Michigan offense. They allowed only 50 points against a good Syracuse team.

South Carolina is without star Sindarius Thornwell right now. That hurts them the most on offense, where he was the guy the offense ran through. 

Clemson always ranks high on the defensive end under Brad Brownell. Brownell is a defensive-minded coach, and he has some talented players with length on the perimeter this year. South Carolina hasn't been playing many teams that are this good on defense so far this year.

This is a big rivalry game and there is a history of low scoring contests in this series. The last seven games have all stayed under this posted total. In fact, only one of those games has topped 128 points. Too much value to pass up on the under.

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in the Gamecocks last 4 home games. The under is 7-0 in S Carolina's last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Clemson's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters don't have star Luke Nelson. He hasn't played yet this year, this offense is lost without him. Irvine is doing their best to slow the game down and win with defense. They have played a lot of low scoring games this year, even when they are playing against a team with a fast tempo.

Akron is playing much slower this year. The Zips do shoot the ball well so that is a bit of a concern, but UC Irvine's defense is better than average.

Another factor that helps us here is this is being played on a neutral floor. It is UTEP's home floor, which is obviously a place neither of these teams normally play at. That helps the under because of the different shooting backdrop and general unfamiliarity.

I had this game totaled at 133 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers and the Illinois Fighting Illini have a pretty solid rivalry. These teams take pride in this game, and it will be hard fought. 

In the last three contests between these two the final scores have been 65-64, 62-59, and 68-63. All comfortably under this posted total. 

A big factor here is that this game is played at the Scottrade Center. This is well known to be a terrible gym for jumpshooters. The shooting backdrop is very difficult. This isn't a place where these two teams are accustomed to playing, so it is likely we will see some below average shooting.

Missouri is looking to push the pace this year, but they rank 313th in effective field goal percentage. On the other hand, the Tigers rank ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that fights hard, but isn't good at scoring. 

Illinois has slowed down their tempo a lot from last year, and they are the better team.

I think this one stays around 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The over has value here because both of these teams should be able to take advantage of their opponents weakness on defense. 

Quinnipiac is a team that relentlessly crashes the offensive boards. The team sends everyone after the offensive board, and that leaves them in some terrible positions when it comes to transition defense. The Bobcats are one of the worst transition defenses in the country.

On the other side, Drexel is terrible at defensive rebounding. The Dragons have given up a bunch of second chance points against far lesser offensive rebounding teams than Quinnipiac. 

I think this means that Drexel will get a lot of run out opportunities when they do get the defensive rebound, which will lead to quick scores. At the same time, Quinnipiac should be able to get a bunch of second chance points which are huge for the over as well.

I had this number in the mid 160's. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Colorado Bears want to play fast under Jeff Linder. They have picked up the tempo in their last three games, and I expect them to keep going here.

UC Riverside has been terrible on offense this year, but they have played the 16th toughest schedule in the country. They have gone up against teams like Utah, UCLA, and UNLV. The Highlanders are playing at an average pace, it is just their shooting numbers have been atrocious on the year. I don't think they are a good shooting team, but they aren't as bad as their numbers so far. 

With both teams here ranking in the bottom 100 in field goal percentage defense, I think this is a game where we see both teams shoot better than their season average. Because UC Riverside has shot the ball so poorly, this total has dropped several points, and now I believe it is a solid value.

Last year these two teams played to a 143 total. Both teams are playing faster this year. Take the over here. 

*3 Star CBB Under Radar CASH* The Green Bay Phoenix play at the 7th quickest tempo of any team in the country. It isn't very often that you'll see a total this low on one of their games. SIU Edwardsville is a team that typically plays to the pace of the opponent. Overall, on the year SIU Edwardsville ranks 105th in tempo out of 351 teams, so they are pretty quick as well.

I think we are getting value from both teams recent games. Green Bay just lost 73-59 to Wisconsin. Wisconsin isn't going to let anyone run, and it shouldn't be a surprise that the game was lower scoring there. Edwardsville is coming off a low scoring game against St. Louis. I had the under in that one and cashed, but the primary reason for the under was St. Louis and their slow style of play. In this one, Edwardsville goes up against a team that wants to run in a big way.

This number has been bet down to the point where I see value. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been tremendous on offense this year. Marquette ranks 18th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have scored over 100 points twice this year. They have scored 81 points or more in 8 of their 10 games this year.

Marquette will be up against a very weak defense in this one. St. Francis (PA) comes into this one ranked 319th in defensive efficiency on the year, and that is despite the fact that they have played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Marquette will easily be the best team they have faced so far. Lehigh put up 100 on St. Francis two games ago.

Marquette is pushing the pace in a big way, and so far this year St. Francis has been pushing the issue as well. I think Marquette puts up 100 in this one, and St. Francis gets us enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CBB Sunday Night Totals MONEY* The Washington Huskies are averaging 93 points per game on their home floor this year. Washington plays at the seventh quickest tempo of any team in the country. 

Washington plays against a weak Western Michigan defense here. The Broncos are 339th in effective field goal percentage defense out of 351 teams in the country. Western Michigan already allowed 91 points against a Boise State team that doesn't run very much. They also allowed 97 points at home against UNC Wilmington.

Western Michigan should be able to score enough here. Washington's defense ranks 206th in defensive efficiency, so they aren't good on this end either. 

With the pace and the defenses, I'll take this one over the posted total. 

*5 Star College Hoops TOP Play of the Week* The Fairfield Stags like to play fast. Sydney Johnson's team went 7-24 two years ago and before last season he decided it was time to try something different. That was speeding up the tempo. It helped the team to a 19-14 year last year. Fairfield is 5-3 so far this year, and they are running once again.

NC State has picked up the pace drastically this year. The Wolfpack are playing about 3 possessions per game faster than last season. Dennis Smith is the main reason for that change. Smith is an extraordinary freshman point guard with tons of speed. He is a great distributor, and can get to the rack when he needs to as well. 

The thing that intrigues me quite a bit here is how bad the offenses have been that Fairfield has played so far this year. Fairfield's defense looks decent on paper, but the Stags haven't played an offense ranked higher than 88th in offensive efficiency so far this year. NC State ranks 36th in the nation in offensive efficiency. I think NC State can put up a bunch of points in this spot. 

The Wolfpack defense has only been mediocre on the year. They rank 113th in defensive efficiency. Fairfield should score a solid amount based on the tempo of the game here.

The over is 12-4 in NC State's last 16 home games. 

I think this game gets into the upper 150's, so I see a lot of value here. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* All signs point to an absolute track meet on the floor in this one. Kentucky is shooting at the fourth fastest pace of any team in the country. North Carolina is 12th so far this year. The next time I see Roy Williams slow a game down will be the first time. Williams was asked about whether he would slow the pace down this week and unequivocally said no way. 

De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are great at pushing the pace for Kentucky. Fox has been one of the best players in the country this year.

Kentucky has scored 87 points or more in all but one game so far this year. North Carolina has scored 93 points or more in 6 of 11 games this season.

It is a neutral court which is a slight negative for the over, but that is being factored in too much in my opinion. This is must see television, and I think we see a close game with both teams getting up into the 80's. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The St. Louis Billikens figured out that they cannot run the type of offense that Travis Ford wanted to run when he came over. He'll get players later on that can run more, but right now this offense is way too bad to be trying to run the floor. They have to settle down and stall the game out. They have done that in their last two games and Coach Ford has suggested they need to keep doing that. Jermaine Bishop missed last game. He is the team's best player. He is questionable for this one.

SIU Edwardsville has been up and down as far as their point production on the year, but last game they lost 49-44 to Missouri Western State. Wow.

Edwardsville and St. Louis are two of the least efficient offenses in the country, and when you put them together I think we will see a very sloppy game where neither team gets into an offensive rhythm. 

I had this one at 130 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames took a huge hit when their star Dikembe Dixson went down with a season ending injury last game. The entire offense ran through Dixson and he took about 1/3 of the team's shots. No one on the team can match his slashing ability, and that is what had them living at the line so far this year.

Loyola Chicago always looks to slow the game down. Last year, Loyola was able to get the matchup between these two teams played at their tempo. The final was 64-47. I don't expect it to be that low this year, but 149 is too high.

UIC will still try to play fast, but their offensive efficiency level will be way down without Dixson the rest of the year. Loyola is favored by several here, and they are great at slowing the game down when they have the lead.

Also note that Loyola is great at playing defense without fouling and UIC relies heavily on getting to the lien.

I think a total in the low 140's would have made sense. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams are playing noticeably slower this year. They have a less experienced team, and I imagine Larry Eustachy has slowed things down on purpose. On the other hand, Colorado State is much better on defense than they were a year ago. This is a tall team with length on the perimeter, and they are making it tough on opponents backcourts.

The Kansas State Wildcats defense is good every year, and this year is no different. Bruce Weber is a defensive minded coach first. Kansas State ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo, and with Colorado State not pushing the issue, the tempo should be very slow here.

Without some really good shooting numbers from these teams, I think we'll see a game that stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats only have 7 players healthy right now. They can't push the tempo, because they have to stay fresh. They have slowed things down quite a bit in recent games.

Texas A&M is without Danuel House and Jalen Jones, their top two players from last year. Because of that, the team is playing a much slower pace and playing a lot of low scoring games this year. Texas A&M held UCLA to only 74 points, by far their lowest point output of the season, so that shows you how well they can slow down the opposition.

This game is being played at noon eastern, or 11 am central. This is a really early game for both of these teams. Also, it is played in the Toyota Center, which is noted for being one of the worst shooting backdrops in the country. It is especially difficult for guys who never play there, and obviously neither of these teams play there normally. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star CBB TGIF Play of Day* The Oregon State Beavers were embarrassed by losing at home to lowly Savannah State in their last game. Co-captain and coaches son Tres Tinkle gave an emotional speech to the team after the game. Both Wayne (Dad and Coach) and Tres talked this week about the importance of focusing on defense. Oregon State hasn't been strong enough on defense this year. 

Tres Tinkle is injured right now, and he is no doubt the team's best player. He knew he had to step up and light a fire into his teammates though. Coach Tinkle said he believes the Beavers defense has been "atrocious" of late. Tinkle also said some other important things to an Oregon State beat writer this week. He said he wants the team to slow down and play a much slower tempo in order to limit offensive mistakes and help opponents not get out in transition against them.

Oregon State actually held Savannah State to their slowest pace of the year by far, so they started the slower pace last game. They play Long Beach State in this one. Long Beach State has some ugly defensive numbers this year, but that is primarily because they have played the number one ranked schedule in the country. Long Beach State will be middle of the road in defense by the end of the year. 

Long Beach State is playing at a slower tempo than they did last year, so I don't think they'll push the issue too much here. 

With a bigger effort on defense from Oregon State and two inefficient offenses, I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The FIU Panthers are using up 19.4 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That means on offense they are 337th fastest out of 351 teams. Clearly, they are looking to slow the game down and keep it low scoring. FIU just isn't very good on offense. The Panthers don't have a go to scorer, and they don't get to the line much at all.

Georgia Southern has slowed their pace down from last year. The Eagles have made defense a priority this year. This team was really weak on defense, but so far this year they are up to average on that side of the ball. 

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the nation in free throw attempts. I think this one is a few points too high. 

I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The DePaul Blue Demons host the UIC Flames in a battle of two teams from Chicago on Wednesday night. Last year when these two teams played the final was 79-52, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The pace was ridiculously fast at 79 possessions. UIC scored only 0.70 points per possession in that game. The Flames offense was very inefficient last year, but they are much better on offense this season.

UIC averaged less than 0.89 points per possession last year, but this year they average almost 1.01 points per possession. That's a huge difference, and this team is playing at the 18th fastest tempo of any team in the country. UIC gets to the line more often than any other team in the country (out of 351 teams). 

DePaul has played a bunch of teams who look to slow the tempo down. This will be the first team to really push the pace against DePaul. I think that gives us value on the number here. DePaul ranks in the top 40 in the nation in free throws attempted as well, and both of these teams foul more than the average college basketball team. 

My numbers had this one at 160 points. I think both teams make a living at the charity stripe and the pace is very quick. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Illinois Salukis host the St. Louis Billikens here. Travis Ford wanted to play an uptempo style of basketball with his St. Louis team, but he is quickly realizing he can't do it yet. Why? St. Louis is awful on offense. Pushing the tempo gives them very little chance to win because the opponent is almost always a more efficient offense.

St. Louis has scored 64 points or less in 7 of their 9 games this year. That is despite the fact that they played their first four games at a blazing fast tempo. Take a look at their last game against lowly Chicago State. St. Louis won that game 45-43 and scored a grand total of two points in the last 9:38 of that game! 

Southern Illinois is weak this year as well without Anthony Beane who was their star scorer a year ago. The Salukis rank 303rd in the country in pace out of 351 teams. They will want to play slowly here, and I think St. Louis will be happy with that also based on their recency.

I think this is a game that stays around 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Morehead State Eagles and the Eastern Washington Eagles meet on Tuesday night. I understand why the total is high here, both teams struggle on the defensive end. Still, I think this one has gotten a little too high to pass up. 

Morehead State ranks 250th in tempo on the offensive side alone (the time it takes them to put up a shot when they have possession). Eastern Washington ranks 318th out of 351 teams in the country. Clearly, both teams are looking to slow the game down. In a game between two teams that slow the game down this much, this total in the mid 150's is very high.

It will take some really impressive shooting numbers to get this one past the posted total. I think both teams will shoot it pretty well, but not well enough. 

One thing that likely helps inflate this total is the fact that Eastern Washington has played three overtime games this year. Two of them have gone into double overtime. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Drexel Dragons are playing much quicker under first year head coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons are shooting it in an average of 15.5 seconds each time they get the ball. That is 42nd fastest in the country out of 351 teams.

St. Joe's plays at an average pace. The Hawks have played several good defensive teams of late, and their offensive numbers have been hit hard because of that. Drexel will be the worst defensive team they have played in a long time.

St. Joe's has some good long range shooters, and Drexel has struggled all year to get out on shooters. Look for a game that gets close to 150 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is definitely a rivalry game, and I think that helps the under. These teams will be working hard on the defensive end in this one. They played once already this year and the total finished at 131. I think this one finishes in the 130's as well.

New Mexico State likes to slow the game down. This game is on their home floor, so I expect them to be able to get their tempo even better than they did in game one between these teams.

New Mexico relies heavily on getting to the line for their offense, and I think they'll get less attempts at the line in this game since they are on the road. New Mexico is slower on offense than they were a year ago by a lot. 

Both teams lost their top offensive player from last year. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs are still playing relatively slow. There are a couple things different about this team so far this year though. One- they are much weaker on the defensive end. They were 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 51st this year. Second- they are much more efficient on the offensive end. They were 170th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 90th in offensive efficiency this year.

Arizona State will push the tempo here. The Sun Devils have played only one game that finished lower than 145 points so far this year. That was a 68-60 loss to Davidson where both teams shot the ball horribly. Arizona State has multiple good three point shooters, and that should help them against San Diego State. 

This number has gotten too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks went away from running and gunning in the early season, but recent games suggest they are back to playing really fast again. UNC Wilmington has scored at least 97 points in each of their last three games, and the tempo in those games has been on average more than 10 possessions higher than their tempo through their first five games.

They face a St. Bonaventure team who is attempting to play faster this year. They are 71st in the nation in tempo. So far, it has worked out nicely. The Bonnies are 6-2 with some pretty decent wins. They have scored a minimum of 81 points in each of their last five games. 

Another key point here is that both teams do a lot of fouling. These teams both rank in the top 1/4 of teams in the country in fouling, and that should lead to a bunch of time at the charity stripe in this game. 

I think this game should get close to 160. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have only had one game fall below this posted total all year. Oklahoma State ranks in the top five in the country in terms of tempo. Oklahoma State has only failed to score 90 points in a game twice so far this year. 

Tulsa has some major issues handling pressure, and that is exactly what they'll get all game from Oklahoma State all game in this one. Oklahoma State forces the 5th most turnovers of any team in the country. The Cowboys should force a bunch here, and they'll turn them into transition opportunities.

I believe Oklahoma State is the better team here, and I think they'll get the lead and play this game at their pace. Tulsa will have to play quickly to try to catch up.

Take the over.