Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* This is a neutral site game which is beneficial for the under. Wyoming played two very slow paced games that finished at 117 and 107 points against Drake and Boston College on neutral courts earlier in the year. Wyoming is a good offense, but this Dayton defense is the best defense they have faced so far this year. 

Dayton is a really good under team based on multiple things. Dayton plays very slowly. The Flyers rank 338th out of 363 in tempo. They are also only mediocre on offense. They are 28% from 3 point range on the year. Dayton is a top 30 defensive team though.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have played a lot of defensive minded teams who like to slow the pace down. Memphis wants to run, and their offense has been doing a better job taking the ball to the basket this year. 

Memphis has had some extremely high scoring games against opponents who play at a fast pace (Alabama 91-88, Auburn 82-73, St. Louis 90-84). The Tigers crash the offensive boards, and Texas A&M is very weak on the defensive glass. Memphis should get a lot of second chances and get to the free throw line often in this one. 

Texas A&M is 99th in average possession length out of 363 teams, so they are moving quickly. The Aggies are 8th in FTA/FGA so they are living at the line. They are 355th out of 363 in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Their games have featured a ton of trips to the stripe. 

Texas A&M has faced the 94th toughest slate of defenses on the season. They have faced only the 240th toughest slate of offenses. Memphis has faced the 12th toughest slate of defenses and 44th toughest slate of offenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats defense is tremendous this year. Kentucky has faced the 90th toughest slate of offenses, and they are 7th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Wildcats make it very difficult for opposing teams to get into the paint and score.

Kentucky's offense hasn't been very efficient this year. The Wildcats have settled for too many midrange jumpers that aren't very good looks. They have faced only the 259th toughest slate of defenses so far this year.

UCLA plays at about an average pace. The Bruins are coming off a blowout win over Maryland, but I think this Kentucky defense will be much tougher to get through. The Bruins added a good shot blocker in Adem Sona this year. 

This game is played at Madison Square Garden. College games played at MSG has been a tremendous under system in the long run. This neutral court setup is a positive for this under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Illinois State had a bunch of low scoring games earlier in the year. The RedBirds come into this one having played three high scoring games in a row. What's going on? They played three top 75 tempo teams in a row. Now, they go back to playing a team in Ball State that has a slightly below average tempo.

Illinois State ranks 324th in tempo. The RedBirds struggle badly with turnovers on offense, so they are really wasting a lot of possessions. Their offense hasn't looked good this year despite facing one of the 25 easiest slates of defenses in the country. 

A neutral court here boosts the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Texas has played 10 games this year. All ten of them have finished with a final total of 123 points or fewer. They rank dead last in the nation in tempo. North Texas has a top 55 defense in the country as well. That combination can lead to some really low scoring games. 

UMass plays pretty quickly, but UMass is better on defense than offense. They are shooting just 46.9% from 2 point range. The Minutemen were stalled out by Towson and Charlotte earlier this year. Those are two teams who are similar to North Texas, but they aren't quite as slow or as good on defense.

This is a neutral site game and that is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks put up a ton of shots from long range. Jacksonville State is shooting 39% from long range. They are up against a Little Rock team that is one of the worst 3 point defenses (and defenses in general) so far this year.

Little Rock has had games flying over this posted total on a regular basis. They are pushing the tempo and they are second to last in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. The Trojans also manage to commit a lot of fouls.

Jacksonville State torched this defense last year and they should again. Little Rock should do enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Kentucky Norse have slowed down their pace even more this year. They rank 356th out of 363 teams in the country in tempo. Northern Kentucky has slowed down multiple fast paced teams this year when it comes to possessions per game. I think they can do it again here.

Eastern Kentucky wants to run, but they are actually playing quite a bit slower than I expected this year. Eastern Kentucky ranks 77th in tempo after being 24th a year ago. The Colonels have been better at protecting the paint on defense this year thanks to a couple solid shot blockers in the frontcourt.

These two met last year and it was 64-64 before overtime. Eastern Kentucky has seen 4 of 8 games against Division One teams stay under this total. Northern Kentucky has had four in a row stay well under this total in regulation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A game between these two teams should be a game played to a slow pace. Last year their meeting was just 58 possessions. That game finished at 110 points. It didn't have many free throws, so I don't think this one will be as low as that, but I think this line is a few points too high.

Morehead State was 69th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. The Eagles are 350th out of 363 teams in the country so far this year. The Eagles lost three star guys in Broome, Cooper, and Hollowell. Their offense has been very stagnant this season.

GA Southern has faced the 138th toughest slate of offenses. They have faced the 341st toughest (very easy) slate of defenses thus far. 

I think the defenses have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a really high number, but it is really high for a very good reason.

So far this season, Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played the 350th toughest slate of opposing offenses in the country (there are 363 teams). Texas A&M CC really hasn't played a good offense all year. Well, they are about to play the team with the best offensive efficiency and best effective field goal percentage offense ratings in the country so far this year. 

Arizona has played three non-conference games against bottom 100 type teams this year. They put up 95 points or more in all three of them. I think they do it again here. 

The over is 8-1 in Arizona's last 9 non-conference games when they were favored by 10 points or more. In six of those games the game went over the total by 15 points or more. 

Consistently, Arizona has allowed their opponents to score a bunch of points late in these games when they are well ahead. For example, Southern scored 30 points in the final ten minutes. Utah Tech scored 32 points in the final ten minutes.

Texas A&M CC plays quickly and they foul a bunch. Arizona will get easy looks inside and get to the line a bunch. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags have played five straight games that finished below this posted total (118, 119, 109, 122, and 120 points). Fairfeld is 321st in the nation in tempo. The Stags are 289th in offensive efficiency. They are 174th in defensive efficiency. 

Yale has slowed their pace down a lot this year. The Bulldogs are 297th in tempo on the year (they were 88th last year). The Bulldogs are 120th in offensive efficiency and 63rd in defensive efficiency. Yale held Kentucky to 69 points last game. The Bulldogs also held Vermont to 44 points earlier in the year. 

The pace here should be very slow. Both teams are very good on the defensive boards, which I think is crucial when betting a low under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* McNeese State isn't playing the same way they have played for the last few years. This team is slowing the pace down a lot, likely because they know they are at a big talent disadvantage. McNeese State only put up 40 points at Tennessee a few days ago. The Iowa State defense isn't as good as Tennessee, but it is a top 15 defense in the country. 

Iowa State is coming off a bad loss to Iowa without their star player. The Cyclones should be locked in on defense here. Iowa State are 254th in overall tempo. They excel in forcing turnovers on defense, and McNeese State will struggle to get shots up in this one. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are first in college basketball in defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes' team is playing some elite defense. They combine the ability to get a bunch of steals and block shots as well. They are holding opponents to far too many big midrange jumpers that are contested. Quality shots are tough to come by against this unit.

Maryland just struggled badly on offense against Wisconsin in their last game. The Terrapins have been good offensively on the season overall, but they have faced a lot of weak defenses when they put up their big numbers.

I see both of these teams as middle of the road type teams in tempo, and the defenses have a nice edge on the offenses. This is also a neutral floor.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Missouri State is a different team this year. They have the same coach in Dana Ford, but without star Gaige Prim down low this Missouri State team is far worse on offense. They are slowing things down and trying to win low possession games with their defense.

Missouri State has played 8 Division One opponents so far this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total and it was only 140 points. Their last three games have all finished at 117 points or fewer.

Purdue Fort Wayne has played only the 315th toughest slate of defenses this year. Fort Wayne is top 20 in the country in defending without fouling and 10th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies are good at controlling the tempo. Montana wants to play slowly and I think they can get North Dakota State to play a slower paced game. 

A look at North Dakota State's schedule shows they have played 7 of their 9 Division One games against teams with a top 100 pace rating. North Dakota State is getting into track meets because the other team wants that. This is a very different opponent.

North Dakota State has been top 55 in the country in defensive rebounding and defending without fouling each of the last three seasons. 

Montana and North Dakota State have both played much tougher slates of offenses so far this year compared to defenses. I think their numbers are skewed some.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Marist Coach John Dunne said before the season his team needed to get back to playing hard nosed defense after they disappointed on the defensive end last year. Dunne has a long history of coaching teams who play slowly and are questionable at best on offense, but they can lock down opponents in the halfcourt. His team is back to doing that this season.

Boston University has had several very low scoring games already this year. In fact, four of their last six games have finished at 122 points or fewer. 

Marist's last three games have finished regulation with a total of 102, 91, and 122 points. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have really picked up their pace significantly this year with Jordan "Jelly" Walker leading the way. UAB was pretty fast last year, but they are flying this season. They are playing 5.5 possessions per game faster than a year ago. UAB is 6th in overall tempo in the country. 

West Virginia is slightly faster than average, and the Mountaineers still pressure quite a bit especially in the halfcourt to try to get steals and quick scores the other way. 

Both teams excel in getting to the free throw line, and their opponent has fouled quite a bit. Additionally, both of these teams are great at second chance points, and both teams have trouble getting defensive rebounds. That's another way that they'll get on the line a lot also.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland State Vikings are 340th in tempo in the country. Cleveland State was held to 42 points last game by St. Bonaventure. The Vikings have had 5 of their 9 contests against Division One opponents finish at 127 points or fewer. That includes a 115 point total after overtime in one game.

Kent State is excellent on defense. The Golden Flashes are aggressive on defense and get a lot of steals. They do foul quite a bit, but Cleveland State is bottom 100 in the country in getting to the free throw line. The Golden Flashes held Houston to 49 points and Gonzaga to 73 points. This defense should do great against Cleveland State.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mick Cronin's teams are inconsistent on whether they play slowly or run. Cronin's teams though have a history of running against weaker teams when they are a big favorite. In his history as a head coach, Cronin's teams are 15-6 to the over as a home favorite of 20 points or more. They are 9-2 to the over when they are favored by 24 points or more. UCLA is favored by 27 points in this one. They should be able to name their score on Denver. 

Denver has been playing faster this year, and Denver is a bottom 50 team in defense in the country. Denver has yet to play an excellent offense. They will face a great offense here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards rank 361st in average possession length in the country. They are stalling in a big way on the offensive end. They are 311th in offensive efficiency. Lafayette's defense isn't great, but they have faced a very tough slate of offenses. According to KenPom, they have faced the 24th toughest slate of offenses in the country.

Quinnipiac is 63rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The Bobcats have done a great job defending the three point line, and Lafayette puts up a ton of shots from long range. 

Both teams are good on the defensive boards so second chance points should be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs have gotten better defensively in recent seasons. Drake is 52nd in defensive efficiency so far this year. Drake is a good offense as well. The Bulldogs have played a bunch of fast paced teams in the early going. I don't expect Drake to turn every game into a track meet. In fact, both Wofford and Tarleton were able to slow the pace down against them.

Omaha has played a tough schedule so far this year. The Mavericks have a new coach in Chris Crutchfield. He has the team playing much slower this year, and they'll try to slow the pace down here. Omaha has a big weakness on the defensive glass, but Drake doesn't usually try for many offensive rebounds. They opt to get back on defense, and they are a bottom 50 offensive rebounding team.

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. John's Red Storm and DePaul Blue Demons met twice last year. The two games had 173 and 193 points in them. The pace was 80 possessions in the first meeting and a ridiculous 83 possessions in the second meeting. 

St. John's is playing a bit faster this year than they were a year ago. DePaul is playing a tick faster as well. 

DePaul is better offensively this year. They do struggle with turnovers though, and that actually helps the over here. St. John's is going to turn those turnovers into points quickly here. The full court press will be on throughout in this one. 

DePaul fouls a lot and I would expect plenty of trips to the free throw line in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Pacific Tigers are playing much faster this year. Pacific has seen 7 of its 9 games go over this posted total. They rate 79th in overall tempo so far this year. They also rank 294th in defensive efficiency. On offense, they are excellent at not turning the ball over, and that helps them a lot with efficiency.

Northern Arizona is a terrible defensive team. They have been that way for many years. They have been a bottom 20 defense in the country the last two years. Their numbers this year are very weak once again.

Both of these teams foul a lot. Both are in the bottom 50 in the country in defending without fouling. Pacific is holding opponents to 60.8% from the free throw line. We know there is no such thing as free throw defense, so this will regress.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* A matchup of two of the very worst defenses in the country. Idaho is 345th in defensive efficiency on the year. North Dakota is 325th in defensive efficiency this year. A total set this low with two really bad defenses is pretty rare.

The pace of the game will be pretty slow, but I do think the efficiency will be there to get this one past the posted total.

Both the Big Sky Conference Summit League are well known for high scoring games with efficient offenses and really weak defenses. I think that plays out in a game like this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are shooting a ton of 3's so far this year, and they have been falling at a very high rate. Wisconsin shot just 30.6% from long range last year, but they are at 37.4% on the season this year. Hepburn is a decent shooter, but he hit 34.8% from 3 last year and is up at 47.5% so far this season. 

Wisconsin obviously plays very slow. They are elite at forcing the opposition to play at their speed. Marquette is a top 25 tempo team in the country, and Wisconsin slowed the game down to just 69 possessions even with an overtime. The Badgers will slow the tempo here too.

Maryland has played the 241st toughest slate of defenses. The Terrapins have racked up points against teams like Coppin State, Binghamton, Louisville, etc. Wisconsin is a much tougher defensive challenge. 

Maryland is a solid defensive team too. Willard's teams always work very hard on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins and High Point Panthers both really like to run. High Point is playing this new style with G.G. Smith as their new head coach. High Point is 14th in the country in average possession length this year. Furman is 51st. This game should be a track meet in terms of tempo throughout.

Furman's defense is propped up by a 61.5% FT percentage allowed. High Point gets to the line a lot, and they are shooting 69% from the line. 

Furman's offense is tremendous. They are efficient and run great sets. Furman has scored 88 points or more in four of their eight games so far this year. 

Neither team is good at protecting the basket, and I see plenty of easy inside looks here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns will have an excellent defense this year. Chris Beard's teams are always tremendous on defense, and this team has the athleticism to be a major problem on defense. Texas is forcing turnovers at a very high rate and Illinois has had trouble with turnovers on offense. Texas is 3rd in the country defending the 3 point line, and Illinois is taking a bunch of shots from long range.

Illinois is playing faster this year, but the Illini are also better on defense. They are 14th in defensive efficiency and 12th in effective field goal percentage defense. Texas is going to the basket a lot, but Illinois has a big height advantage in this game.

Madison Square Garden hosts this game, and it is one of the best under venues in all of college basketball.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Brown Bears have been putting in some really solid defensive performances of late. Brown has seen five straight games finish below this posted total. Brown is second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 53rd in turnover percentage forced as well. Brown has a fast tempo rating for the year, but they have played much slower in their last three games. 

Hartford is a really bad team this year. The Hawks had their coach resign the day before the season, and it is going to be a rough season for this team. They are stalling as much as possible on offense. They rank 336th in average possession length in the country. They are really weak on both offense and defense. One positive though is they have faced the 355th toughest slate of defenses (very easy defenses) and the 216th toughest slate of offenses thus far. Their numbers are a bit skewed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cornell Big Red definitely play quickly, and they will want to run here. Cornell is 65th in tempo in the country. Lafayette slows things down to the extreme. They are 359th out of 363 teams in the country in tempo.

Lafayette has played only one game this year that has finished regulation with a combined score over 134 points. That was their loss to high powered St. John's who press all game long. 

Cornell hasn't played a team with a tempo ranking of any slower than 162nd on the year. This matchup will be a significant change from what they have been seeing so far this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played seven games so far this year. The most total points scored in a North Texas game this year is 123. Five of the seven games have finished at 115 points or fewer. North Texas is the slowest paced team in the country. They are also one of the best defenses in the country.

North Texas is a big favorite here. With them laying a big number, I like the under even more. They have shown the ability to take the air out of the ball better than anybody else in the country when they have a big lead.

Omaha is playing completely differently this year for Coach Crutchfield. This is a new coach who is focusing on defense and slowing the pace down. Omaha is outmanned here, and they aren't likely to push the pace at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Quietly, High Point is off to a really good start as G.G. Smith takes over as their coach this year. He has decided to pick up the tempo a lot this season. They were 301st in average possession length last year. They are 24th so far this year. That's about as big of a jump as you will see. 

High Point has been attacking the basket and getting fouled a lot. They have also been getting a bunch of second chance opportunities. That is key here since N Florida ranks in the bottom ten in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. 

North Florida prefers to play quickly with Driscoll as their coach as well. This team has been one of the worst defenses in the country on an annual basis of late. 

Both teams rank in the top 75 in FTA/FGA so there should be plenty of trips to the charity stripe. Both teams struggle badly to get defensive rebounds as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores played somewhat faster last year under first year coach Josh Schertz. They have upped their tempo significantly this year. They have also been much more efficient. Indiana State is 15th in the nation in shot selection this year according to ShotQuality. They are also 4th in the nation in Rim and 3 rate. They are either getting to the basket or taking the 3 ball, which in recent years has been a good formula for success in college basketball (cutting out the tough midrange jumpers). Indiana State is 10th in the nation in average possession length this year.

Miami Ohio is 338th in defensive efficiency. The Redhawks have been one of the worst teams in the country the last two years at defending beyond the three point line. Miami has played the 308th toughest slate of offenses, and Indiana State is a clear step up from most of those teams.

The Miami Ohio offense has scored 80 points or more three times already this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights rank 362nd in the country in defensive efficiency this season. This defense has been torched on a consistent basis. They have allowed 74 points or more against every Division One opponent this year. Fairleigh Dickinson has had games flying over the total despite playing only one team in the top 135 in tempo in the country. That was their track meet against SIU Edwardsville that finished 79-78. 

St. Joe's ranks 65th in the country in tempo. The Hawks are 11th in FTA/FGA and they should live at the line against a Fairleigh Dickinson team that can't get defensive rebounds and fouls a bunch. The Hawks aren't as tall as last year, and their interior defense has definitely slipped.

I expect a fast pace throughout here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Idaho Vandals have been a bottom 15 team in defensive efficiency the last two seasons. They have been even worse so far this year. Idaho ranks 359th out of 363 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. Idaho has blocked 2.6% of opponents shots. That is last in the country. The average in the country is 9%. The Vandals also are bottom 20 in the country in free throw attempts allowed per possession. Idaho has allowed 81, 82, and 81 points in their last three games. Those were contests against Utah Tech, Cal Poly, and Pacific. 

Northern Illinois ranks 84th in the country in tempo. The Huskies are pushing the pace this year. NIU has faced the 36th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. They have faced the 312th toughest slate of offenses. That tells me that Northern Illinois is capable on offense, but they have had some tough matchups (NW, GA Tech, Sam Houston are all very good defenses). 

NIU is definitely capable of giving up a bunch of points too. Illinois Springfield, not even a Division One school, put up 83 points in game one against NIU. NIU allowed 88 points to Sam Houston State, and they are not normally a good offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kennesaw State Owls are a much improved team the last couple years under Coach Amir Abdur-Rahim. Kennesaw State went 1-28 in his first year with the team, but they keep getting a lot better. Kennesaw State is an above average offense playing at an average tempo. They have also faced a top 50 strength of schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. 

Mercer has had drastic splits on offense and defense the last couple years. Mercer is a much better offense than they are defense. The Bears give up far too many second chance opportunities and that is something Kennesaw State should take advantage of here. On offense, Mercer is top 50 in the country in 3 point percentage while Kennesaw State is bottom 15 in the country in 3 point defense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes have been a good defensive team the last couple years. They showed how good they are on defense in their last game by losing just 49-44 at Houston. They actually led in the final two minutes of that game against a tremendous Houston Cougars team. Kent State is 25th in effective field goal percentage defense.

South Dakota State commanded very high totals in recent years because of their insane efficiency on offense, but this Jackrabbits team isn't the same. South Dakota State is turning it over at a very high rate. They are bottom 5 in the nation in turnover rate on offense. Kent State is top 5 in the nation in forcing turnovers on defense. South Dakota State lost a star shooter in Baylor Scheierman and it shows this season. He's helping Creighton now, and South Dakota State is missing their star from last year.

This number is priced like S Dakota State has last year's team.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers aren't anything like they were the last couple years. Nebraska is no longer nearly as offensively talented as they were with Bryce McGowens last year. They are no longer looking to push the pace as they have the last few years. Nebraska is attempting to win with defense. That isn't to say their defense is tremendous, but it is clearly improved. Nebraska is defending without fouling and forcing quite a few turnovers. 

Boston College has played a weak slate of defenses, and their offensive numbers are still horrid. Boston College has weak offensive sets and they rely on a lot of low percentage looks. 

I think this one is a sloppy game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a rare game early in the season where these two teams have already met. New Mexico State now hosts UTEP after losing 67-64 in El Paso a few weeks ago.

The first game between these two was played to a fast pace of 72 possessions. Both teams shot the ball poorly. ShotQuality says the score should have been a total of 138 instead of the 131 it finished at. 

UTEP is 8th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. New Mexico State does foul a lot. New Mexico State was just 4/16 from 3 point range in the first game.

Both teams have shot the ball terribly from the free throw line so far this year, and regression to the mean in a positive way should happen at some point.

New Mexico State has really been pushing the pace, and with one team pushing pace this is a really low total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Xavier is 26th in average possession length so far this year. The Musketeers are pushing the pace in a big way. SE Louisiana is 55th in overall tempo as well. This one should be a track meet in terms of tempo.

Xavier has scored 84 points or more in 4 of their 7 games. They have only scored less than 78 points once (neutral site game against Duke). Xavier is going to put up a big number against an SE Louisiana team that has a bottom 30 or 40 defense in the country every single year.

SE Louisiana has shot the 3 ball pretty well the last few years and they get to the free throw line pretty often as well. In a game with this tempo I think they can score enough.

This one is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Prairie View A&M Panthers have played a relatively tough slate of defenses this year. This team is more efficient on the offensive end than almost any other SWAC team on a yearly basis. They have had a lot of non-conference overs through the years because of this as well. 

Rice is 54th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Rice is also dead last at #363 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The Owls are a really good over team because of these stats combined with their tempo, which is clearly above average. Three of their five games against Division One opponents have gone to 159 points or higher total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers have played six games and five of those contests have been at 126 total points or fewer after regulation. Wisconsin is back to slowing things down more this year. Why? They have far less offense without Johnny Davis. They are a top 12 team on defenses in multiple major categories, and I expect them to continue to be excellent on the defensive end.

Wake Forest hasn't played a team this year who has ranked in the top 100 in effective field goal percentage defense. I think the Badgers defense will give them a lot of trouble in this one. The Demon Deacons prefer to play pretty quickly, but Wisconsin is great at controlling the pace.

Both teams are good on the defensive glass, so I wouldn't expect many second chance points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMKC Roos are favored by 5 points here. UMKC has scored 63 points or fewer in seven of their nine games on the season. This team is 356th (out of 363) in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. UMKC is 341st in average possession length, so they are really slowing down the tempo a lot.

Idaho State has been a bottom 40 team in tempo in the country each of the last two seasons. They take a lot of three point jumpers, but they aren't good at getting open looks from long range. They have played a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year and still their games have been lower scoring. 

I see a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Toreros are a completely different team with Steve Lavin as their head coach this year. San Diego was 224th in average length of possession last year. They are 128th in that same stat so far this year. Lavin wants his team to push the pace this year. 

San Diego picked up Eric Williams from Oregon and he is the key go to guy for this offense. Their efficiency will jump this year on offense compared to a year ago.

Longwood has been a very good 3 point shooting team the last couple years. San Diego is allowing opponents to shoot 43.4% from 3 point range on the season thus far. The Lancers should get plenty of open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies are 333rd in the nation in overall tempo. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 356th in overall tempo. These are two teams who want to play the game in the halfcourt. 

These two teams rank 2nd and 3rd out of 363 teams in the country at defending without fouling. That is something I like to look for when taking a low under. 

Virginia Tech is a good offensive team, but I expect them to regress a bit as the season goes along. They have played a very weak slate of defenses thus far. 

Minnesota doesn't have many options on offense. This is a team that relies too much on a couple guys (Battle and Garcia).

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Place Bell Arena is a hockey arena in Quebec, Canada. This site has hosted several basketball games the last few days. A close inspection of these games has showed that shooting numbers have been way down across the board at this arena. The shooters are struggling with the unique backgrounds. 

I think this is just too high of a number at this arena. These two teams do play fairly quickly, but neither of them are lights out shooting teams to begin with. 

These are both teams who have a history of defending without fouling. Avoiding sending their opposition to the line is a big plus.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Purdue ranks 333rd in overall tempo this year. Duke is 316th (much slower than last year). 

Duke's defense has been fantastic this year. Kyle Filipowski is a 7 footer who clogs up the lane and changes things in a big way on the defensive end for Duke. Mark Mitchell's athleticism and length make him a major factor on defense too. I think the Blue Devils are far better on defense than most people realize.

Purdue's Zach Edey is obviously a force on both ends, but he'll be defended by much more athletic and long players than he is accustomed to seeing. Purdue allowed just 66 against a fast paced Gonzaga team, and the Boilers were able to control the pace in that game (just 68 possessions).

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Place Bell Arena is a hockey arena in Quebec, Canada. This site has hosted several basketball games the last few days. A close inspection of these games has showed that shooting numbers have been way down across the board at this arena. The shooters are struggling with the unique backgrounds. 

In this one, MTSU is an excellent defensive team who can create a bunch of turnovers and lead to wasted trips for the opposition. Montana State is 282nd in overall tempo and the Bobcats rely so much on their star Belo that it can hurt them a lot against quality defenses. Montana State has gotten 0.93 and 0.77 points per possession in their first two games at this arena. MTSU is the best defense they have played yet at this arena.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Campbell Fighting Camels (what a great nickname) rank 339th in average possession length. Stetson ranks 346th in that same statistic. Both of these two teams are looking to slow the pace down at all times. I see no reason to expect this to be anything other than a game played in the halfcourt all the way.

Last year these two teams met and the game finished 60-58 (118 total points). It wasn't a fluke either. It was just a very slow paced game and the two teams shot close to their season averages in that contest.

This one should be low as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game will be played in Copper Box Arena in London, England. The first two games played at this arena both went far under the total in regulation. Princeton's game went 9.5 points under the total. Northeastern's game was 20.5 points under the total in regulation before edging over the total by 1.5 points with overtime. This is a unique arena where I believe the shooting sight lines could be affected.

Princeton is 234th in average possession length. The Tigers have played a very easy schedule of defenses so far this year. Princeton is likely to be challenged a bit more by the length of the Northeastern defense. 

The Northeastern Huskies are 294th in average possession length so far this year. This team has played very slowly for many years in a row now. 

Both of these teams do a good job defending without fouling and second chance points should be hard to come by here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hawaii Warriors are using 1.3 seconds more of the shot clock on average in every single possession so far this year. A drastic slowdown from this team. They aren't shooting the ball well, but the question mark about this team coming into the season was if they could consistently shoot the ball well enough or not.

Sacramento State has showed that they clearly want to play at a slower pace. They have gotten behind in some recent games and sped up, but in a neutral state this team wants to stall. The Hornets will be better on defense than offense under defensive minded Coach David Patrick. 

This is not a home game for Hawaii. This is technically a neutral site contest which is a positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks have slowed down their tempo significantly this year. They were 192nd in average possession length last year. They are 355th so far this year. 

Missouri State has typically been a slower paced team under Dana Ford. Missouri State lost their star scorers in Prim and Mosley from last year. This is a team with far more question marks than answers on offense right now.

This game is played in the Bahamas on a neutral floor. Neutral court unders have been a great angle especially early in the season. In the last 15 years the unders are nearly 55% in games 1-8 on a neutral court.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats are playing even a bit slower than they did a year ago. Villanova is using 20 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Wildcats lost two of their stars from last year's team, and I expect them to be a little less efficient on offense this year. Gillespie and Samuels are huge losses on the offensive end.

Iowa State added a tremendous defensive presence in the offseason. Osun Osunniyi should make this defense even better. He is a tremendous shot blocker and he will change the game a lot down low. The Cyclones are 8th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation so far this year.

Villanova should control the pace here. The Wildcats haven't let a single game this year get past 65 possessions. 

This is a neutral court game which is a positive in the long run for unders.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders have been a team that plays with a slow pace and wins with defense every year under Mike Magpayo. They are 301st in tempo in the country so far this year (average possession length). UC Riverside is coming off a low scoring game against a high flying offense in Wright State.

Abilene Christian's usually fantastic defense wasn't very good last night against Weber State. I think they will bounce back in this one. 

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass. That really helps limit those second chance points that can be killer for unders.

Early season neutral court games have gone about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The IUPUI Jaguars had the worst offense in the country last year and it wasn't even close. IUPUI put up less than 0.8 points per possession. It was an absolute train wreck on the offensive end. They aren't much better this year. They will be bottom three or so in the country on offense again this year. They also play at a bottom 50 tempo. 

Denver beat IUPUI 63-47 last year on a neutral floor. Denver is slightly better on offense this year, so I do expect more points than 110, but I think this total is too high. 

Lakefront Arena where this game is being played has been a fantastic under venue through the years because of a unique shooting backdrop. 

Early season neutral court games have gone about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Drexel has been good at controlling the pace of the game. The Dragons have played every Division One team on their schedule thus far to 68 possessions or fewer. The Dragons are playing a faster paced team today in Indiana State, but I still expect them to do a pretty good job of slowing the pace down.

Indiana State takes a bunch of long range jumpers. That plays to the strength of Zach Spiker and the Drexel defense. They have been a much above average team defending the 3 point line in the last few years. I expect the Sycamores to be taking a lot of contested shots from 3 in this one.

This is a neutral site game early in the season and those have been nearly 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards are playing at one the slowest paces in the entire country. In fact, in overall tempo Lafayette is the slowest team according to KenPom. Their new coach has clearly changed the way they play. 

Penn has played three really good offenses and teams who usually play fairly quickly in Iona, Missouri, and West Virginia. Penn isn't likely to be pushing the pace very much here.

Lafayette puts up a bunch of 3 pointers, so if they are shooting really well this probably goes over, but the scouting reports on them are that they are a bit short on great shooters at this point. 

Penn turns the ball over too much to be terribly efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have always preferred a slow tempo under Coach Ritchie McKay. They typically rank among the 50 slowest tempo teams in the country. Liberty has had some relatively high scoring games so far this year, but I think that is more about the teams they have played against than anything else. Specifically, Alabama put up a big number on them, but if Alabama is hitting their jump shots they are going to score a bunch on just about anyone.

Northwestern's tempo is down this year. The Wildcats are 11th in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. Their offense has been inefficient despite playing one of the 10 easiest slates of defenses so far this year.

This is a neutral site game early in the season which is a clear positive for the under based on the long term trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Abilene Christian Wildcats take a lot of bad jumpers. They have poor floor spacing and I don't like the sets this team runs in the halfcourt. If they aren't getting points in transition they usually struggle on offense.

Weber State has a new coach in Eric Duft and he has this team slowing down the pace. They are no longer playing to the pace they did under longtime coach Randy Rahe. Weber State isn't good at finishing at the rim either.

Abilene Christian is an excellent defensive team that forces a lot of turnovers.

This is a neutral site game early in the season which is a clear positive for the under based on the long term trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Here is a matchup that looks much different than it would have if these teams had played last year. 

Nevada lost their star scorer from a year ago, and they have decided to play at a much slower pace. The Wolf Pack went from being a team ranked in the top 50 in tempo to being a team that is playing slower than average. 

Kansas State is still much better on defense than offense. The Wildcats don't have a clear go to scorer on offense.

This is a neutral site game played early in the year and those are about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech defense will be a top 10 defense in the country again this year. Adams is a fantastic defensive coach.

Louisville is atrocious offensively. Their guard play is about as bad as you will ever see from a big name team. They should have a lot of trouble scoring here.

This game is on a neutral floor and those early neutral court games have been great to under bettors for many years now.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Kentucky has showed their blueprint for winning games this year. They will slow the game down as much as possible and try to win it with their defense. They are coming off a fantastic win over Cincinnati where they held the Bearcats to 11 points in the second half. Northern Kentucky ranks 350th out of 363 teams in the country in tempo so far this season.

Florida Gulf Coast has a new head coach this year in Pat Chambers. Chambers has slowed this team down quite a bit too. Florida Gulf Coast is 283rd in average possession length after being all the way up at 99th last year. They sometimes struggle with fouling too much on defense, but under Coach Horn the Northern Kentucky team hasn't usually been one that gets to the charity stripe very often.

This is on a neutral floor and that is a benefit for the under too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Holy Cross has decided to pick up the pace drastically this year. The Crusaders were 200th in average possession length two years. They were 168th last year. They are all the way up to 38th quickest so far this year. Holy Cross is still an atrocious defensive team, and now their opposition is getting more possessions with the ball. Holy Cross has played four games this year, and the fewest points in one of their games has been 143. The other three games all had at least 156 points.

Fordham's Keith Urgo said before the season one of his main goals was to get the Rams playing at a faster pace. Fordham has been a bit faster this year. The team still struggles with offensive efficiency issues against good defenses, but this Holy Cross defense will be the worst they have faced so far this season. Darius Quisenberry is a really solid scorer and I would expect a big game from him here.

The pace should be such that it would take a really bad shooting night to keep this under the total. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Howard Bison have decided to slow their tempo down in the last couple games. Even against an ultra fast paced team in Buffalo, Howard played the game to just 68 possessions. Buffalo is accustomed to playing games at least in the mid 70's in pace. Howard also slowed the game down a lot against Wyoming. It was just some fouling late in that game that got it to 148 points.

Belmont isn't as good offensively this year as they have been. Nick Muszynski was the focal point for their offense the last few seasons, and now he is gone. They are playing relatively quickly, but it has been clearly slower than a year ago.

This game is played at The Virgin Islands Fitness Center. This has been a great under venue. The under has cashed at a better than 60% rate in this gym.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Golden Knights have slowed their pace in a big way this year. UCF is 351st in average possession length so far this year. UCF has a bunch of height and I think Coach Dawkins is slowing the pace due to his big men not being as good running the floor. What are these big men really good at though? They are shot blockers and change a bunch of shots in the paint. The UCF defense is excellent on multiple levels. 

Santa Clara lost their two best scorers from last year. The Broncos do push the pace when they can, but I expect them to be better on defense than offense this year. Santa Clara is great at clearing defensive rebounds and defending without fouling.

This is an early season neutral court game. In game 1-8 of the regular season- neutral court unders of 133 points or higher are 54.7% since 2006. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game will be played at The Virgin Islands Sport and Fitness Center. Games played here have gone more than 60% to the under in a sample size of more than 100 games. This is a tough shooting backdrop and a court that is set up far different than a normal basketball court.

Wyoming has played faster so far this year, but their last game against Howard was their slowest paced game yet. The Cowboys rely a lot on getting to the free throw line. Drake hasn't fouled very much under Coach Darian Devries over the last few seasons.

Drake usually plays at an average or slightly slower than average tempo. The Bulldogs aren't likely to want a track meet here.

Wyoming's opponents are shooting 88.9% from the free throw line. This will regress to the mean over time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers are great at controlling the pace of the game with Ron Sanchez as their head coach. Charlotte ranks 356th out of 363 in tempo so far this year. The 49ers just slowed down both Boise State and Tulsa in the last two days. I think they can control the tempo here as well.

Frank Martin's teams do like to play relatively quickly, but his teams are also often good on defense. Martin talked about in the offseason that he thought turning around this UMass defense was the first priority. It is already showing up on the court. They have held two solid offenses (Colorado and Murray State) to less than 1 point per possession in their last two games.

This is an early season neutral court game. In game 1-8 of the regular season- neutral court unders of 133 points or higher are 54.7% since 2006. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors game stayed under for us yesterday, and I'm going to bet the under again here. Merrimack played to just 127 points against Troy in a game that was quite the foul fest throughout. The refs had a quick whistle especially in the first half.

Merrimack was without one of their best players in Jordan Minor for that game, and it sounds like he is questionable at best for this game. The Warriors are already offensively challenged even with him on the floor.

Montana is 350th out of 363 teams in the country in average possession length so far this year. The Grizzlies defensive numbers this year don't look good, but they have faced some very good offenses. Merrimack will be the worst offense they have gone up against yet.

Merrimack's zone defense is very tricky, and Montana is a team prone to lazy turnovers. I think that could lead to some efficiency issues on the offensive end.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Colonials and Boston College Eagles will square off in the Virgin Islands in an early season neutral court game. 

George Mason and Boston College are both teams who have coaches who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams ranked 294th and 298th in tempo last season. I expect to see these teams settle into a pretty slow pace again here.

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

This specific court in the Virgin Islands has a whopping 59-36 record to the under overall. It is a tough gym for the shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are always an excellent defensive team under Coach Steve Pikiell. They have a dominant defensive big man in Omoruyi and he is going to be a major problem in the paint all year for the opposition. Rutgers has plenty of length on the perimeter as well. This is the 23rd tallest team in the country.

Temple has always been much better defensively than on offense under Aaron McKie. Temple's offensive numbers look good so far this year, but I expect those numbers to regress toward the mean. They don't have very many guys capable of creating their own shot, especially against a tough defense. 

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix are led by Will Ryan (son of Bo Ryan). They are always going to look to slow the pace down in a big way. Green Bay is bottom 25 in tempo out of 363 teams already this year. The Phoenix are pacing that slow despite the fact they have been getting blasted in two of their three games so far this year.

Queens is a new Division I school and there isn't a bunch of data on them yet, but they did slow the game down to some degree against a very fast paced Marshall team. They played an average pace against La Salle. 

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

An early start here is a plus too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bucky McMillan is a guy who wants to press and push the tempo as much as possible. He said in the offseason they had too much youth and not enough depth last year. He said they will push the pace more this year. Samford will be pressing and forcing turnovers here.

Alabama A&M just turned the ball over 20 times against Tennessee State. If they couldn't handle that pressure, I think they'll turn it over a lot here and it will lead to Samford run outs and easy scores. 

Alabama A&M ranks 12th in the nation so far this year in quickest average possession length. Their new coach is Otis Hughley and this team seems intent on forcing the pace with him. They have been using extended pressure some as well.

Both of these teams are extremely prone to fouling a lot, so I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix have a new coach in Billy Taylor. He has been the assistant at Iowa recently, and he talked in the offseason about implementing a new much faster pace at Elon. Taylor has worked closely with Fran McCaffrey who consistently runs a very fast paced offense that has some tremendous set plays. He said he wants his team to be pushing for 50 points in a half. Here's a good chance for them.

Elon will face North Dakota, who is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. North Dakota has been 297th or lower in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense in each of the last three years. They just gave up 93 points to Pacific. 

The Elon defense lacks height on the interior and I expect North Dakota to be able to get into the paint and have success on offense. North Dakota has been terrible from the free throw line early this year, but that should positively regress some (55% from FT line).

Look for a quick pace in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game will be played at a neutral court. The HTC Center in South Carolina. Early season neutral court unders has been a great trend in the long run, and I like the value on the under here.

Charlotte and Boise State are both excellent on the defensive glass. That is something I really like to focus on when I am looking at lower totals to stay under. I don't expect many second chance points here.

Charlotte is excellent at slowing the game down. The 49ers don't have the scoring firepower to win shootouts very often and they know it. 

Leon Rice is a good coach for the Broncos and his teams have become increasingly strong on the defensive end in recent years. They mix and match defenses and come up with some great game plans. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack has slowed the game down and played that fantastic zone defense of Joe Gallo’s year after year. I expect them to do the same again this year. In game one of their season they got down big early against St. John’s (much more talented team) and had to speed up the pace. I expect slower pace here.

Merrimack has been very inefficient on offense the last couple years. 336th and 325th in offensive efficiency in the country last two seasons. 

Troy’s best finish in offensive efficiency the last three years has been #258 in the country so another inefficient offense. Scott Cross’ team has improved a lot from a couple years ago on defense though.

An early season neutral court under and that has in the long run been a good angle.

I’m on the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Omaha Mavericks have a new coach in Chris Crutchfield. Crutchfield has slowed down the tempo drastically at Omaha. This team was 50th in the nation in tempo last year. They are sitting at 251st so far this season. Omaha's coaching staff has emphasized the need for improved defense this year. They won't be great on defense by any means, but they'll be better than a year ago.

Ball State has a new coach in Mike Lewis. He was an assistant coach at UCLA and is a defensive-minded guy. In their first couple games, Ball State has played clearly slower than they did a year ago as well. They are using two seconds more per possession than they did a year ago. That will reduce the amount of overall possessions in the contest.

Two teams with new coaches who are looking to focus on defense and slow the pace down. The books have set a number that is pretty close to what it should have been with the previous coaches. I think there hasn't been a big enough adjustment made to the new styles of play here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks have been atrocious on defense several years in a row. North Dakota's best defense in the last four years finished #297 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They were #353 last year. 

Pacific has changed the way they play this year. The Tigers have picked up the pace a bunch. Pacific is playing five possessions per game faster than they did a year ago. That kind of drastic change in pace is going to alter their totals quite a bit. I don't think the oddsmakers have caught up yet.

Pacific has played two games that finished at 166 and 177 points. Against North Dakota State, they were playing a good defensive team that likes to play slow and the game still hit 177 points.

North Dakota is good at getting to the charity stripe, and this Pacific team has been doing a lot of fouling with their aggressive pressing and trapping.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is being played on a neutral floor at Sanford Pentagon. South Dakota State is essentially the home team, but this is still not their normal court. Neutral games played early in the year have gone about 55% to the under in the last decade. 

St. Bonaventure is going to work hard to slow this game down. To say that the Bonnies lost a lot from last year is a major understatement. Nearly everyone either transferred or graduated from the Bonnies veteran team that has made multiple good runs in the last few years. Schmidt is a good coach and he will get this team to buy in, but the firepower isn't there now. They will try to keep it lower scoring.

South Dakota State also lost their two stars in Douglas Wilson and Bailey Scheirman. The Jackrabbits are still a solid team, but they don't have the huge offensive upside they had the last few seasons.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears have been a slightly below average tempo team the last couple years. Mercer takes on Georgia State who has a new coach in Jonas Hayes this year. 

It was a little unclear before the season what Jonas Hayes would do in terms of style and pace, but in his first two games it has been across the board slow tempo and a lot of the pack line defense. Hayes has taken Georgia State away from the pressing identity they had in the past. Georgia State ranks 341st (bottom 25 in terms of tempo) in average possession length so far this year. 

Georgia State is doing a really good job contesting shots inside the arc. Georgia State is taking a lot of low percentage offensive shots themselves though.

Look for a slow pace and some tough looks for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sacramento State has a new head coach in David Patrick. Patrick has a history of having his teams slow the game down drastically. They also have played very good defense. 

So far this year, Sacramento State ranks 358th in overall tempo in the country. They are forcing games into slow paced rock fights. The Hornets have some great height in the interior too and they should keep opponents out of the paint and hold teams to one shot most of the time.

Denver played its only Division I game against Idaho. Idaho has one of the worst defenses in the country. Denver is likely to struggle against this Sacramento State defense.

Sacramento State has had two games and they finished with 126 and 120 points total. I think this game is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a completely different team under new head coach Chris Jans. Jans always gets his teams to play tough defense. You won't play for Jans if you don't work extremely hard on defense. His teams typically play at a slow pace as well.

Mississippi State is 305th in the nation in tempo so far this year. The Bulldogs are already at 27th in effective field goal percentage defense too. They were 161st last year. Texas A&M Corpus Christi put up only 44 points on Mississippi State, and Akron only scored 54 points.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff is a really bad team from the SWAC. They are slightly slower than average in tempo and they are really inefficient on offense, even against SWAC teams. I find it very hard to believe that they'll be able to score very many points here. 

Look for Mississippi State to coast in this one. I think this total is a good amount too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers work very hard on defense for Rick Barnes. They have all kinds of length even on the perimeter and that can really make life difficult for opposing guards. Tennessee has been a top 5 defense the last couple years, and I expect them to be at least top ten again this year.

Colorado lacks a go to scorer this season. Tad Boyle's teams have struggled badly on the road through his whole tenure leading the team. 

This game is being played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. This is a spacious arena with well noted very tough shooting backdrops. In the queries I have run, Bridgestone Arena ranks in the top four for "under arenas." This is a place where the under has been a very good wager in the long run.

I see two solid defenses and a neutral floor that has been great for unders. I like this one to stay below the number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I fully expect Corey Gipson to slow the tempo down some at Northwestern State. Gipson knows this Northwestern State team has to get much better on defense than they have been in recent years. He comes from Missouri State and I think we'll see a pretty drastic difference in this Northwestern State team's style of play right away.

Illinois State has a new coach as well in Ryan Pedon comes in to take over for Dan Mueller. Pedon was an Ohio State assistant, and his preferred pace will be much slower than Illinois State has played in recent years as well. The Redbirds rank 300th in the country in tempo so far this year. 

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough based on the new styles these two teams will be playing with these new head coaches. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose are a very weak team on offense. Presbyterian doesn't take good shots, and they don't really have that many clear cut scorers on the team. While they aren't good on offense, this Presbyterian defense is really scrappy. Quinton Ferrell is a defensive-minded coach, and it absolutely shows with their aggressive defense. They force a lot of turnovers and often cause the offense to take tough jump shots.

East Carolina has a new coach in Michael Schwartz. He has been the defensive mastermind at Tennessee the last few years for Rick Barnes. Schwartz has done an amazing job switching up defenses and using aggressive defenses to make the offense uncomfortable at all times. He has been clear that he thinks this East Carolina team has the athleticism to be good on defense immediately. On offense, they will likely still need to get things figured out for a while.

Last year, Presbyterian's first 5 games all had 126 or fewer total points. Their first two this year have had 128 or fewer. 

The tempo should be fairly slow in this one as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks had a lot of turnover in their roster, but Eric Musselman's team is loaded with talent once again this year. Arkansas brought in Trevon Brazile from Missouri. He is a big man who can play down low or step outside and hit the 3 ball. Ricky Council is a good pickup from Wichita State as well. The Razorbacks expect big things out of freshmen Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh as well. 

Arkansas always wants to force the tempo, and I expect no different this year. The Razorbacks have a lot of speed and they'll use it whenever they can. 

Fordham has a new coach in Keith Urgo after Kyle Neptune got the Villanova job. Urgo said in the offseason that he wants his team to really pick up the pace compared to last year. Here is a great chance for them to play quickly. They did move quickly in a high scoring 88-74 win over Dartmouth in game one. Fordham sometimes struggles with efficiency on offense, and they could some here, but I think the pace will be such that they should be able to put up enough points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Princeton offense that Joe Scott runs is all about keeping his team that is far less talented than the opposition in the game with a great scheme. It also does a very good job of slowing the pace down. I expect Air Force to be one of the 20 slowest paced teams in the country yet again this season. 

Air Force slowed down Bowling Green (a very fast paced team) in their season opening contest. That game finished 62-58. The Falcons will slow the tempo down again here.

Delaware has some new faces this year, and the Blue Hens have improved defensively according to their head coach. They have better length and they have quick perimeter defenders. Delaware is expected to take some time to gel on offense with new faces getting quite a few minutes.

I like this one to stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs will look quite a bit different without star big man Orlando Robinson. He was their star on both ends and Justin Hutson has to find a different way to win games with this Fresno team this year. 

Fresno State always competes very hard on the defensive end for Coach Hutson. I think Hutson will have another solid defensive team this year. 

UCSB is well coached by Joe Pasternack. He wants to play at a slow pace. UCSB has offensive talent, but they aren't likely to push the issue or put up too many shots from three point range. On defense, UCSB is a top 75 team in effective field goal percentage defense.

Fresno State always wants to play slowly as well. Hutson's teams are well noted for doing a great job of controlling the pace of the game. 

This game is played at a neutral site. Early neutral site games have been very good under plays in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose can definitely turn a game into an ugly low scoring contest. This is a team that forces turnovers in loads thanks to their aggressive defense. They also are very inefficient on offense and rank in the bottom 50 in the country in possession length on offense. They play at a very slow pace.

The Citadel will look a lot different without Duggar Baucom on the sidelines. The Citadel will no longer be a top ten tempo team that puts up 3's nonstop and gives up quick shots each time the other weay. I expect them to be an average paced team or so. The offense will be run completely differently.

Presbyterian can probably get the Bulldogs into a slower paced game here. I don't think the adjustment has been quite large enough here based on The Citadel's changes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Reading the quotes from Jeremy Ballard, the coach of FIU, has me thinking this FIU team is about to play much faster once again this year. This team ranked first in the nation in overall pace of play in Ballard's first season. They were consistently very fast until last year. Ballard said he had the team slow down their tempo because of COVID issues and injuries. They weren't nearly as successful. Ballard said he was very upset to not get to press full court and try to turn the game into a track meet. He says they will do that again this year. Here is a great chance to show that.

Houston Christian is a team that has struggled with turnovers a lot the last few years. FIU should be able to get quick steals and scores off them. Houston Christian is happy to play a quick pace too and I think they'll get enough points of their own.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* We've reached the Final Four. While there were many upsets along the way, we have a final four of all big name programs. Villanova takes on Kansas in the first game at the Superdome on Saturday evening. 

Villanova is without Justin Moore and that definitely hurts them quite a bit, but this is a really well coached Villanova team. Jay Wright knows his team has a better chance if they keep this game played in the halfcourt and slow the pace down as much as possible. Villanova has played six games in a row to a pace of 62 possessions or slower. 

Kansas has done a solid job not fouling down the stretch this season. Villanova shoots a ridiculous 83 percent from the line, and if Kansas can keep them off the line they have a much better chance of slowing the Wildcats down here. The Jayhawks have seen their last two games played to 127 and 126 points. They are usually a pretty high scoring team, but they have had several low games on neutral courts this year.

This game is played at the Superdome in New Orleans. In the last 15 years, there have been 3 games played at the Superdome. Those three games were the Final 4 and Championship Games back in 2012. All 3 of those games went under the total. They all went under the closing total by at least 5 points. This is a huge stadium with tough sight lines. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is an NIT Semifinal for Tuesday March 29. There is quite an impressive NIT Semifinal and Finals totals trend that stands out. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 NIT Semifinals and Finals round games with a total of 129 or higher. The under is 23-6 in games with a total of 135.5 or higher in this spot.

The venue here is Madison Square Garden. It is absolutely one of the best under venues in college basketball. This is a massive arena with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Throw in the fact that in the early rounds of the NIT most teams care very little, but once they reach this stage they are going to slow down and give more effort on defense. 

Texas A&M actually hasn't had any of their 3 NIT games thus far go over 136 points. Washington State has seen two of their three games stay under. The other one only finished at 138 points.

Both Washington State and Texas A&M are better on defense than offense. Washington State ranks 263rd in effective FG percentage offense and 39th in effective FG % defense. Texas A&M is 198th on offense and 65th on defense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats rank 345th in the country in overall tempo. The Houston Cougars rank 338th in the nation in tempo. These are two bottom 20 teams in the nation in pace of play. The pace here should be extremely slow with this one almost exclusively being played in the halfcourt. 

Houston slowed Arizona down and that game finished at only 62 possessions. Villanova hasn't had a game in the NCAA Tournament over 62 possessions. I think there is a good shot this game plays to 60 possessions or fewer based on how slow the teams play and the importance of the game.

Villanova is 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston relies heavily on offensive rebounds. Villanova ranks 80th in the country in second chance points allowed, which is better than Houston's first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Houston is 3rd in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars will likely make the post up offense and pick and roll offense Villanova runs tough sledding for the Wildcats here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are a really well coached team. Ed Cooley is willing to do whatever it takes to keep his teams in the game. They will mix in zone looks including 1-3-1 zone defense to trap and keep the opponent off guard. Providence is likely to do a lot of mixing up their defenses here against a good Kansas offense.

I also expect Providence to look to slow the pace down. The Friars aren't likely to want a track meet type game here. Providence ranks 283rd in the country in overall tempo.

Kansas has been excellent on 3 point defense. In the Big 12, Kansas' opponents shot less than 28% from 3 point range. Providence has shot it well from long range, but Shot Quality and other analytical sites believe they are due for regression. I think Providence could struggle to find open looks in this one.

The under is 22-8-2 in the last 32 Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 or larger. The consensus line here is 7.5 right now. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs are favored by 9 or 9.5 points in this one. Games with a spread of 7.5 points or more are 21-8-2 to the under in the Sweet 16. This game fits the system.

The Arkansas Razorbacks offense has been inconsistent this year. Arkansas ranks only 237th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Razorbacks  rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. They are 15th in FTA/FGA in the country. Gonzaga has always been good at defending without fouling though and this year is no different. The Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation in defensive FTA/FGA. Arkansas is just 30.5% from 3 point range this year, and I don't trust them to knock down jumpers here on a neutral court in San Francisco.

Gonzaga's offense is really good. There isn't much bad to say about them. They can be hit or miss from 3 point range at times. Arkansas has a good shot blocker down low in Jaylin Williams. 

Look for Chet Holmgren's length inside to really bother the Arkansas frontcourt here.

This is a 4 pm local time tipoff in a neutral venue, which is a positive for the under.

I'll back the system and take the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers rank second in the country in offensive efficiency. Purdue was rolling on offense against Yale, but took their foot off the gas as many high seeds do with a large lead in the second half of the Round of 64 matchups.

Purdue has two elite big men in Edey and Williams. Edey is particularly hard to matchup against. He is an offensive rebounding machine. Texas has had trouble with defensive rebounding all year. Expect it to be a major issue here. 

Jaden Ivey is one of the best offensive players in the country, and he should be a handful here too.

Texas has improved in recent weeks on offense. The Longhorns are likely to have success in this game. As good as Purdue is on offense, the Boilermakers aren't very good defensively. Purdue is just 90th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

A close game is expected here. Purdue gets to the line a bunch and Texas fouls a lot as well. A foul fest late or even overtime is a possibility.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans rank 350th out of 358 teams in the country in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way. UNC Greensboro has played a bunch of games to 60 possessions or less this year. 

Boston University is 274th in average possession length. The Terriers definitely prefer to play slowly as well. There should be no pace war in a game like this.

This is a small postseason tournament and the total is adjusted upward for that. This game is played at a neutral site though and neutral site games have played to lower total in the long run than regular home sites. 

Neither team gets to the line very much and I believe it will take very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs play at the single fastest pace in the country in terms of average possession length. Memphis will use a full court press and very aggressive defense to try to get points off turnovers. While Gonzaga hasn't been terrible about turning the ball over this year, they haven't faced teams who press in the WCC.

Memphis ranks 9th in quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 110th in preventing those quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 4th in halfcourt defense and 139th in transition defense. Memphis will try to score in transition here.

Memphis is certainly much better on offense with DeAndre Williams in the lineup now. The Tigers get a lot of second chance points and get to the line a lot. 

Gonzaga's offense is so balanced that I believe they can do damage against Memphis. The Tigers are also weak in transition defense (110th) and Gonzaga can take advantage of that weakness in a big way.

The pace here should be extremely fast.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners have sped up their pace late in the season. UTEP is aggressive with their defense and they look for chances to get steals and score quickly in transition. Western Illinois has had recent problems taking care of the basketball and their transition defense ranks in the bottom 60 teams in the country.

Western Illinois also is terrible at defending the 3 point line. UTEP takes a lot of long range jumpers.

Western Illinois has seen 8 of their last 10 games go over this total. UTEP has been back and forth on higher and lower scoring.

This is a first round smaller postseason tournament, and these games have gone over at a better than 55% clip in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star  Play Under*

Seton Hall point guard, Bryce Aiken, is badly missed by the Seton Hall offense. Seton Hall will probably be playing at a slow pace since TCU is strong when it comes to dictating tempo. TCU ranks among the 50 slowest teams in average possession length. 

Seton Hall is still an elite defensive team. TCU isn't a good jump shooting team and they are reliant on getting a lot of second chance points. Over the course of the season, Seton Hall has been above average at preventing second chance opportunities. 

This total is set low, but I still believe it is a little too high. Look for the two offenses to struggle to get open looks. 

Take the under.

3* Play Under  The Cal State Fullerton Titans had been unable to score against quality competition. Fullerton scored only 66 against Wyoming, and 56 against San Diego State. Duke has a huge size advantage in this game. Fullerton prefers to drive to the hoop, but Duke ranks top 30 in blocked shots and #2 in the county in defending without fouling. Duke has slowed down their tempo late in the season. 

A great long term angle on round of 64 totals has been betting the under when a highly seeded team is a large favorite. When the favorite is -8 or higher, the under has hit at better than 60% over the past 15 years.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers play the Yale Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament first round.

High seeds favored by at least 6 points in round one of the NCAA Tournament have been great under bets when the total has been above 135. That system is above 60% in the last decade. This game fits this system.

Yale isn't very good offensively, and they prefer to play slowly. The Bulldogs aren't likely to be able to expose Purdue's relative defensive weaknesses. 

Matt Painter's team has shown the willingness to slow down when they have a sizeable late lead. The Boilermakers are likely going to be playing from the lead throughout here.

I'm trusting the system and expecting a pretty slow pace here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense is absolutely rolling right now. Keegan Murray is arguably the best offensive player in the country. Murray has been shooting lights out of late, and he is far from the only weapon this Hawkeyes team has on offense. Kris Murray is also playing really well and is breaking out on offense. Jordan Bohannon is an elite outside shooter. Iowa is averaging 1.215 points per possession on the year. That is only behind Gonzaga.

Richmond ranks 315th in transition defense. The Spiders are terrible in transition defense, and Iowa is all about pushing the pace. They rank 20th in average possession length in the country. The Spiders aren't likely to have any answers. Grant Golden is a good player, but he is too slow and weak defensively to keep up with the Iowa frontcourt.

Iowa is still only decent on defense. Richmond star guard Gilyard should give the Hawkeyes some trouble here. Golden is a good offensive big man who can pass it well and set up shooters. Iowa struggles to defend the 3 point line. 

Iowa is 3rd in the country in turnover percentage. Richmond is 9th. Don't expect many wasted possessions in this one. 

Richmond gave up 85 to Utah State and 86 to Maryland in the non-conference slate. Iowa should put up a big number here. I think Richmond scores enough too.

Take the over.